一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

As conflicted as I am, I do feel somewhat confident that the Euro is about to push higher (and, with it, most commodities). We're at a decent level of support here for a bounce higher.

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Having said that, crude could potentially slip a few more dollars - - but we're talking about a market that has already gone from $150 to $61. The bottom of this channel is around $54, which is quite close. So the downside at the moment doesn't seem too great.

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Still on the topic of commodities, I would also refer you to the current wheat contract - - that horizontal line of support seems very strong to me, so I'm probably buying calls on the DBA when the week begins.

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As for going long indexes, I guess the best strategy for me will be to buy ultra-long positions in items like those shown below while at the same time holding on to my equity shorts, keeping the stops at sensible levels. This way, even a strong rally will not damage me too badly.

hefeiddd

As for going long indexes, I guess the best strategy for me will be to buy ultra-long positions in items like those shown below while at the same time holding on to my equity shorts, keeping the stops at sensible levels. This way, even a strong rally will not damage me too badly.

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I wish I could give you more clear direction, but I can't. I promise you, though, if we do rally big-time, and we reach the levels I'm talking about, you won't see any hedging on my part. I'll be my old wild-eyed ursine self. At this moment, though, it pays to be opened minded to the prospect of a rally, no matter how paradoxical that might seem in this disastrous economy of ours.

Posted: 10:47 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

十一月 03, 2008 - 05:47 下午Novus Ordo SeclorumThe next 48 hours are going to be terribly revealing - - it will be fascinating to see how the markets react to the election results. I imagine any big move will peter out by the middle of Thursday. If we get a sharp rally, I will take that as an opportunity to (a) sell off some of my more profitable longs (b) get into more short positions. As you can see from my watch lists, I have a bevy on both sides of the aisle. In just one of my accounts, I have 70 longs and 57 shorts! It's quite a mix. And even though 53.68 seems high on the VIX, we've come down over 40% from the peak. A big upward surge in equities could push the VIX down to under 40, which I'd take as an even better opportunity to short.

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I remain long FXP and FXP calls. Some people have complained about losing money on this. What, do you want to catch it at the exact right second? I don't mind some froth. I feel good about the possibilities of this short.

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The big ETFs are all mashed against their 23.6% retracement levels. An election surge would easily kick these up to the next level higher, but I'm already entering some put positions just in case we fall.

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hefeiddd

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The ES e-mini has been boxed into an 825-1000 range for a couple of weeks now. The "exciting" part of this phase of the bear market ended October 10th. We've just been farting around ever since.

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To quote Trading Goddess - - look at the volume! Or lack thereof. Today was the lamest volume since August, and that's saying something.

hefeiddd

To quote Trading Goddess - - look at the volume! Or lack thereof. Today was the lamest volume since August, and that's saying something.

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Here's yet another view of a major index. Each 1,000 will hold as resistance, or we'll take a final fly up to about 1070.

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My Dow Jones utility short (via SDP) is a favorite of mine. Even if we surge up to 415, I'm hanging on.

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I did after all wind up buying puts on the OIH. I'm somewhat conflicted about this, because crude oil could make a major push higher. I've got a relatively tight stop on these puts at 102.92, which was October 21st's high.

hefeiddd

I did after all wind up buying puts on the OIH. I'm somewhat conflicted about this, because crude oil could make a major push higher. I've got a relatively tight stop on these puts at 102.92, which was October 21st's high.

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Finally, just in case you missed my little video creation from Halloween night............it's worth your time:


Posted: 05:47 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

十月 30, 2008 - 05:05 下午Is It Back?Could the triangle still live again? Perhaps. The pattern we're etching out is pretty intriguing. Here is a simplistic view of the ES's motion over the past three weeks. The final arrow is, of course, conjectural.


One obscure graph that keeps making me wonder if the market could take an unexpected tumble is the 13-week t-bill rate. In plunges past, this has fallen hard. Over the past three trading sessions (including the massive up day on Tuesday), this has been sinking.

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Early on today, I mentioned the prospect of buying calls on FXP (which effectively makes you short China). I've got a small loss on this trade so far, but I'm pretty excited about its prospects.

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I also acquired puts on three ETFs - DIA, IWM, and QQQQ. Notice how we're just beneath the Fib retracement line. Breaking above this, of course, would neuter all of these trades, but I have my doubts about how bullish a Friday could be in this environment.

hefeiddd

I also acquired puts on three ETFs - DIA, IWM, and QQQQ. Notice how we're just beneath the Fib retracement line. Breaking above this, of course, would neuter all of these trades, but I have my doubts about how bullish a Friday could be in this environment.

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In a similar vein, a look at the $SPX reveals that the close today precisely matched the major (and I mean major) Fibonacci level, shown in bold blue.

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Just to add to the mix, the NASDAQ sported a hanging man doji. Take note also that the NASDAQ is relatively weak compared to the S&P.

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My only position in my IRA now is SDP, which is the ultrashort for the Utilities. This has a small loss now (about $4,000), but this one is a keeper. Even if the $UTIL pushes up to ~415, I will simply add to this position.

hefeiddd

My only position in my IRA now is SDP, which is the ultrashort for the Utilities. This has a small loss now (about $4,000), but this one is a keeper. Even if the $UTIL pushes up to ~415, I will simply add to this position.

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I got out of my US dollar "short" position. The EUR/USD has absolutely, positively zero "base" from which to rally. None. Zero. It only looks ready to cut lower, and fast.

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I have been watching commodities more than normal lately (I'm out of my DBA calls as well, by the way). There could be more life in commodities, but if they were going to reverse, it would be here. Not much of a recovery, to be sure, but it's possible they could soften at these levels.

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Same here.....

hefeiddd

Same here.....

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So as you know, I am not "All Bull" or "All Bear" at this point. It's a mix. This week has been super so far; let's see how Friday wraps things up.

Posted: 05:05 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

十月 28, 2008 - 05:00 下午So Now What?At the end of any fantastic day (such as today), I always realize that I never expected it to turn out this way. Although I may be positioned properly, I never really see days like this coming. It's always a terrific feeling to be on the right side of the market, though. Would that more days felt like this!
But what's next? In a way, a day like today is easy. Once the market breaks in a given direction, the money just pours in. But how far will it go? Will this just be another one-hit wonder? Wednesday is a huge, huge day, after all, with both the GDP and the FOMC before us. What do we do? Aieeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!
Well, we do what we always do. We calm our minds, center ourselves, and look at charts. So here we go.
Let's start with the dollar. You all know I'm very bearish on the US Dollar right now. Here we have the AUD/USD, which looks poised to take a run at .73 or thereabouts. Good.

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I've got wheat-on-the-brain these days. I think this is an important graph to follow. Getting back up to 650 should be a cakewalk, as it were.

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And let's bury the triangle once and for all, shall we? It's dead. The pattern has been rendered moot. Begone, three-sided menace!

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The real question, of course, is how far are equities going to go? My answer: it depends. More specifically, it depends on the index. Some indexes might have weeks or even months of bullish life left in them. Others might be within a day or two of shorting! Let's look at a few. The DIA could hit serious resistance at about 101.

hefeiddd

The real question, of course, is how far are equities going to go? My answer: it depends. More specifically, it depends on the index. Some indexes might have weeks or even months of bullish life left in them. Others might be within a day or two of shorting! Let's look at a few. The DIA could hit serious resistance at about 101.

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In turn, the Dow itself has some pretty serious overhead resistance at 10,100-10250 (allow me to take this moment to back away from my "multi-month rally" comments; it all depends on how fast things move; if we had another day like today, it would be time to short indexes again!)

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Take note of the retracements I've highlighted on the $TRAN. We bounced off the lower one today, and I'd say we've got an easy ride to the upper one, at around 4,150.

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It sounds crazy, but I'm especially bullish on the financials. Just look at that tweezer bottom. In fact, I had an interesting screw-up today; I meant to buy $11,000 of MBI; I accidentally bought 11,000 shares instead. Whoops. I hope we don't get any suprirsing news before I get a chance to "right-size" that position tomorrow.

hefeiddd

It sounds crazy, but I'm especially bullish on the financials. Just look at that tweezer bottom. In fact, I had an interesting screw-up today; I meant to buy $11,000 of MBI; I accidentally bought 11,000 shares instead. Whoops. I hope we don't get any suprirsing news before I get a chance to "right-size" that position tomorrow.

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The $UTIL isn't terribly far away from being shortable again. I'd get interested around 415. If it blew past it, I'd get super interested at 460.

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The EFA is one of those items which could have months of fighting higher before it ultimately exhausts itself.

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Looking at tech stocks, they could either (a) go up a lot; or (b) go up really a lot; it depends on which resistance level stops them.

hefeiddd

Looking at tech stocks, they could either (a) go up a lot; or (b) go up really a lot; it depends on which resistance level stops them.

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A different view into this same notion is afforded by the $COMPQ. As I sit here, I'd use 2,000 as a "get-out" point.

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Ah, and OIH, our dear nemesis - - our friend and foe. Since this finally seems to have shaped up, we could get to $110 without much effort -- maybe even a skosh higher.

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And, more broadly, I'd say the commodities market are looking really exciting for short-term upside.

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And, more broadly, I'd say the commodities market are looking really exciting for short-term upside.

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Just to hit on my financialy bullishness again, here's the KBW Bank Sector Index which I think could push into a hearty, sustained rally.

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Let's take one last look at a major ETF - this time the SPY. The RSI and Bollingers are good and solid here; we could see the SPY at 110 without much difficulty at all - - if people get especially excited, 120 isn't going to be a problem.

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I'll close by saying this..........I have a bulging treasure chest of symbols that will be incredibly, amazing, delicious shorts when the price is right. Some may take months to "ferment"; others, weeks; a few, maybe even days. I was short COH earlier today, and I covered it at a great profit; it blew over 20% higher, so thank goodness for nimbleness. But the fact is that if this sucker gets back to about $23, it will be delicious to short. That kind of price isn't far away.

hefeiddd

I'll close by saying this..........I have a bulging treasure chest of symbols that will be incredibly, amazing, delicious shorts when the price is right. Some may take months to "ferment"; others, weeks; a few, maybe even days. I was short COH earlier today, and I covered it at a great profit; it blew over 20% higher, so thank goodness for nimbleness. But the fact is that if this sucker gets back to about $23, it will be delicious to short. That kind of price isn't far away.

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So.........thank you all for being here.......a big part of my success comes from listening to the wiser folks who frequent the board (or, like molecool, have their own superb blogs). I thank you. My family thanks you. And my bulging accounts thank you. Good night! And take pity on those who were caught short..........


Posted: 05:00 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

十月 26, 2008 - 08:32 上午The All-Needles HaystackWell, it's been a while since I've really, really gone out on a limb. So at the risk of looking like a complete fool this week (or a brilliant clairvoyant - - you payin' attention, Gawd?) here's what this poor soul is thinking:

• Those waiting for the fabled "capitulation volume" are wasting their time; it's not going to come until deep into 2009.
• The symmetric triangle, which I haven't shut up about for a long time, is going to be a fizzle. I don't think we're going to see a 2,000 point plunge; or a 1,000 point plunge; or really any kind of a plunge in the near future.
• On the contrary, I think we're going to start an explosive rally, and it's going to start this week. It might even start as soon as tomorrow (that is, Monday).

Markets do the unexpected. It seems everyone has joined the Slope party and wants to talk about how bad things are and how low things are going to go. Plus everyone is expecting the aforementioned triangle to usher in an inevitable plunge and buying opportunity.
I've looked at chart after chart after chart, and what my (relatively objective) eyes tell me is that everything is about to go up. Gold. Silver. Oil. Wheat. Kitty Litter. Equities. Everything.
Of course, the promised land - - which, God give me strength, I must have the patience to await - - is this:

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If -- I say if - - things go as planned (and I'll repeat this about six thousand times over the coming weeks and months - - we get a 'b' wave up and a 'c' wave down), and if things retrace to that pink rectangle - - I will own Earth, along with all the other Slopers. But we need to take things a day at a time.
But allow me to bury you in charts, all of which are screaming buys to me. If things keep plunging, I'll be the one who is screaming, but the markets will of course move where they may. (to be clear, I've still got 34 deeply profitable short positions, but my portfolios are skewed pretty bullish right now).

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hefeiddd

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And take a look at this - - see the tinted circle? That's the fan line from 1932. What you are looking at now is data through the end of September. Click on the "Present" tab to see October (it's incredible.........) and notice where it puts us.

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As for the VIX, I had a little fun experiment this morning; I did a Fib from the former extremes (before the latest surge), and I did a couple of extensions. Check out the results!

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My bevy of puts on UUP are in the red, naturally, due to the dollar's continued strength on Friday. I'm not nervous; I am highly confident the dollar is going to get its clock cleaned soon.

hefeiddd

My bevy of puts on UUP are in the red, naturally, due to the dollar's continued strength on Friday. I'm not nervous; I am highly confident the dollar is going to get its clock cleaned soon.

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As long as I'm at it, some more charts -- all of which say the same story.

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