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关注空调业
2006年度户式中央空调研究报告
中华商用空调商务网
(http://www．chinaccm．com/31)
2007年3月28日
图表目录
一、绪论
1．1 研究目的
本报告主要是通过研究行业目前的情况，以助于各企业更加了解业内情况。通过本报告的描述，我们试图找出户式中央空调行业发展的一些规律，为投资者、公司管理者等进一步了解国内空调行业的现状和趋势提供素材。
1．2 研究方法
本报告大部分数据来自中华空调商务网电话及实地调研，第三方数据主要来自于中国海关、中国制冷空调工业协会、国家统计局。调研人员认真负责地收集、分析数据，尽量努力确保其合理性、可靠性、准确性。然而，由于调研范围有限、市场环境多变和不可预测因素较多，我们不能保证每个数据与现在和将来实际情况完全一致。
1．3 报告说明
本报告仅供行业内企业参考研究，而非政府机构的行业发展报告，严禁任何企业用作商业目的进行炒作，未经我方书面同意，任何企业不得将本报告部分或全部内容提供给其他组织和个人，仅限于企业内部研究使用。
◆ 任何报刊、杂志、网站、电视等媒体未经我方书面授权，严禁复制、转播、引用、发布本报告任何文字及数据，违者我方将采取法律手段维护我方权益，同时因此与企业造成的纠纷自行承担。
◆ 由于空调行业不仅仅是一般消费品行业，产品分类方法各异，为便于更加合理地让企业了解市场，报告中将产品进行重新简单的分类，在往年研究的基础上继续细分增加了目前市场增长较快的一拖一大型分体嵌入式空调产品。
◆由于企业开始关注外销市场，其所占比例也有所上升，因此本年度报告开始统计分离外销部分的企业状况，以便更加客观地反映国内市场本身的状况。
1．4 概念定义
户式中央空调起源于美国，是商用空调的一类产品，是一个小型化独立空调系统，在制冷方式和基本构造上类似大型中央空调，由一台主机通过风管或冷热管连接多个末端出风口，将冷暖气送至不同区域，实现调节多个房间温度的目的。为方便本次调研及今后的持续对比与研究，本网研究中心特别对户式中央空调进行如下定义：
◆ 以电力驱动的空调系统（另一类以燃气驱动的空调系统如长沙远大、青岛同和、烟台荏原、江苏双良等不列入本次调研及定义之列）；是由一台主机（可多个压缩机并联）通过风道送风、水或冷媒带动多个末端内机，来控制不同的房间的温度以达到调节空气的目的。核心部分是压缩机，容量可自动调控；
◆ 制冷量范围：7KW～40KW，即3P到15P之间；适用房间60平方米到500平方米，不仅局限用于家庭，还用于小型商场、饭店、营业所等；按末端送风方式可分为嵌入式、卡式、吊顶落地式、风管式等多种；
◆ 按输送介质可分为风管系统、冷热水系统及制冷剂系统（也称冷媒式系统，本次统计中主要包括了一拖一、一拖多的两种系统）三大类；由于冷媒式一拖多产品组合较多，因此本报告对该类产品基本涵盖。
◆ 按输送介质的种类也可分为：一次冷媒（由室外机主机通过冷媒管道连接多台室内机而组成一个空调网络系统，室外机与室内机均利用冷媒体即氟里昂来进行冷量传递，也就是目前的冷媒式）、二次冷媒（是指室外机通过一次冷媒把冷量传递给水或空气，然后水或空气作为二次冷媒再把冷量传递给各个需要空调的末端，目前的风管式、冷热水式均属于二次冷媒）。
二、 宏观分析
2．1 外部环境
2．1．1 宏观环境
初步核算，2006年全年中国国内生产总值209407亿元，按可比价格计算，比上年增长10.7%，加快0.3个百分点。其中，第一产业增加值24700亿元，增长5.0%；第二产业增加值102004亿元，增长12.5%；第三产业增加值82703亿元，增长10.3%。分季度看，四个季度国内生产总值分别增长10.4%、11.5%、10.6%和10.4%。
从固定资产投资方面来可那，2006年固定资产投资增长较快，增幅回落。全年全社会固定资产投资109870亿元，比上年增长24.0%，回落2.0个百分点。其中，城镇固定资产投资93472亿元，增长24.5%，回落2.7个百分点(12月份14160亿元，增长13.8%)；农村固定资产投资增长21.3%。在城镇固定资产投资中，分地区看，除中部地区固定资产投资增长33.1%，加快0.4个百分点外，东部地区和西部地区分别增长20.6%和25.9%，分别回落3.4和4.7个百分点。2006年房地产开发投资19382亿元，比上年增长21.8%，加快0.9个百分点。
2006年中国宏观经济运行的基本面总体可以表述为：“增长较快、效益较好，价格较低”。2006年世界经济平均增长大约是3.9%，而中国经济是在10%以上，是一个名列前茅的速度。中国经济连续四年达到10%以上的增长速度，因此增长速度快是中国经济宏观运行的基本特征之一。从效益方面来看，财政收入05年全国的财政总收入大约是3万亿，06年可以达到3万9千亿以上，就是说06年比05年财政增收9千亿。企业利润方面同比也达到了30.7%的增长。从城乡居民收入，初步统计城市人均收入增幅可以达到10%以上，农民收入增幅可达6%以上，几方面都可以给中国经济增长一个效益较好的基本判断。目前国内的发展环境在进一步优化，发展的条件在进一步改善，发展的势头也是在进一步趋好。
后附： 2002-2006年度国内各项经济指标增长状况趋势图
图表 1 2002-2006年国内生产总值与增长速度
图表 2 2002-2006年固定资产投资与增长速度
图表 3 2002-2006年社会消费品零售总额与增长速度
图表 4 2002-2006年城镇居民人均可支配收入及其增长速度
图表 5 2002-2006年城乡居民人民币储蓄存款及其增长速度
图表 6 2006年全社会固定资产投资完成情况
项目内容 实际完成 同比增长 比重（%）
2006年 % 2006年 2005年
（一）投资完成额（亿元） 93472.36 24.5 100.0 100.0
其中：国有及国有控股 45211.61 16.9 48.4 51.5
其中：住宅 16260.96 26.8 17.4 17.1
1、按产业分
第一产业 1101.71 30.7 1.2 1.1
第二产业 39759.88 25.9 42.5 42.1
第三产业 52610.77 23.3 56.3 56.8
2、按隶属关系分
中央项目 10792.36 21.1 11.5 11.9
地方项目 82680.00 24.9 88.5 88.1
3、按建设性质分
新 建 44346.07 29.9 47.4 45.4
扩 建 15649.33 19.0 16.7 17.5
改 建 9799.14 12.4 10.5 11.6
4、按构成分
建筑安装工程 57124.51 23.8 61.1 61.5
设备工器具购置 20437.40 24.3 21.9 21.9
其他费用 15910.44 27.3 17.0 16.6
二、城镇房屋面积（万平方米）
施工面积 342140.00 16.4
其中：住宅 186826.28 19.5
竣工面积 112097.26 4.6
其中：住宅 59404.54 5.1
三、城镇新增固定资产（亿元） 50323.58 11.3
数据来源：国家统计局
注：1、按建设性质分组不含房地产投资。
图表 7 2006年城镇固定资产投资各地区完成情况
地区 投资额（亿元） 比去年增长 比重（以投资额总计为100）
2006年 % 2006年 2005年
全国总计 93472.36 24.5 100.0 100.0
一、东部地区 48966.50 20.6 52.4 54.1
北 京 3086.29 18.9 3.3 3.5
天 津 1678.98 23.1 1.8 1.8
河 北 4430.61 33.9 4.7 4.4
辽 宁 4977.15 35.7 5.3 4.9
上 海 3497.48 9.3 3.7 4.3
江 苏 7473.69 20.2 8.0 8.3
浙 江 5428.03 13.4 5.8 6.4
福 建 2730.11 39.4 2.9 2.6
山 东 8714.86 19.8 9.3 9.7
广 东 6552.58 11.2 7.0 7.8
海 南 396.73 16.9 0.4 0.5
二、中部地区 22503.04 33.1 24.1 22.5
山 西 2059.24 23.6 2.2 2.2
吉 林 2366.05 49.6 2.5 2.1
黑龙江 2040.41 29.0 2.2 2.1
安 徽 3057.86 43.8 3.3 2.8
江 西 2377.41 25.0 2.5 2.5
河 南 4843.76 39.9 5.2 4.6
湖 北 3039.87 27.3 3.3 3.2
湖 南 2718.44 23.3 2.9 2.9
三、西部地区 20020.80 25.9 21.4 21.2
内蒙古 3264.80 27.8 3.5 3.4
广 西 1947.27 31.5 2.1 2.0
重 庆 2251.95 26.7 2.4 2.4
四 川 3927.59 31.3 4.2 4.0
贵 州 1048.67 16.6 1.1 1.2
云 南 1924.06 20.8 2.1 2.1
西 藏 196.42 8.3 0.2 0.2
陕 西 2285.67 31.3 2.4 2.3
甘 肃 925.92 17.8 1.0 1.0
青 海 384.61 23.7 0.4 0.4
宁 夏 448.73 17.5 0.5 0.5
新 疆 1415.11 17.0 1.5 1.6
数据来源：国家统计局
图表 8 2006年部分省市GDP情况一览
地区 06年国内生产总值（亿） 同比
广东 25968.55 14.10%
山东 21846.7 14.70%
江苏 21548 14.90%
浙江 15649 13.60%
河南 12464.09 14.10%
河北 11613.7 13.20%
上海 10296.97 12.00%
辽宁 9357 13.80%
四川 8637.8 13.30%
北京 7720.3 12.00%
福建 7501.63 12.70%
湖北 7497 12.10%
湖南 7493.17 12.10%
黑龙江 6216.8 12.00%
安徽 6141.9 12.90%
广西 4801.98 13.50%
内蒙古 4790 18.00%
山西 4746.5 11.80%
江西 4618 12.30%
陕西 4383.9 12.70%
天津 4337.73 14.40%
吉林 4249.23 15.00%
重庆 3486.2 11.90%
数据来源：国家统计局
2．1．2 房地产
2006年国家加大了对房地产市场的宏观调控。5月17日国务院常务会议提出了包括调整住房供应结构，强化税收、信贷、土地调控手段，加强廉租房和经济适用住房建设等六项措施。此后，国务院办公厅转发了建设部等七部委联合提出的《关于调整住房供应结构稳定住房价格的意见》，对加强房地产调控工作进行了具体部署，要求各地区，特别是城市人民政府把调整住房供应结构、控制住房价格过快上涨，纳入经济社会发展工作的目标责任制。因此各有关部门相继出台了涉及规划、土地、税收、金融、价格、市场交易、外汇和外资管理等一系列配套文件和政策，积极推动住房供应结构调整，加大普通住房供应，引导合理住房需求，控制房价上涨。房地产宏观调控取得一定效果，房地产市场呈现出积极的变化。2006年房地产市场运行情况主要是：
1、房地产开发投资保持平稳增长。全国房地产开发完成投资19382亿元，同比增长21.8%。低于同期固定资产投资增速，处于近几年来较低水平。从分地区情况看，东部地区房地产投资过热问题得到初步抑制，2006年东部地区投资增幅为17.4%，低于全国平均水平。
2、房地产开发结构得到一定改善。2006年实施的调整开发供应结构，鼓励普通商品住房建设措施初见成效。2006年住宅投资增长速度达到25.3%，高于同期房地产投资增幅3.5个百分点。其中，经济适用住房投资同比增长32.7%，经济适用住房投资下降的趋势得到明显改善。部分城市中小套型商品住宅投资比重有所增加，住房供应结构得到改善。
3、房价涨幅有所回落，但部分城市仍上涨较快。统计显示，2006年房屋销售价格涨幅比上年有所回落。但房价上涨的地区差异较大。部分城市房价涨幅仍然较大，同比上涨较快的有福州、北京、深圳、厦门等城市。同比下降的有长春、杭州、济南、桂林等城市。
2．2 能源消费
2007年我国国民经济的发展速度将进一步放缓，对电力需求的增长也将趋于平稳，再加上节能降耗工作的逐步推进，电力供需基本平衡。2006年以来新增发电装机容量保持了较高的增速，发电量也保持了较大的增幅，全国的供电紧张局势得到极大的缓解。
随着发电量的不断增加，电力供需紧张形势得到明显缓解，缺电范围持续减小，程度进一步减轻。全国缺电省份由2005年年初的25个省逐步减少到2006年1月份的9个、6月份的4个，再到9月份的4个。全国尖峰负荷最大电力缺口约1300万千瓦，比去年同期减少近一半，拉闸限电条次同比下降了91.3%。作为发展中国家，我国中长期电力行业仍将保持较高增长态势，短期内总体供需基本平衡不会改变能源长期短缺的格局。
图表 9 2002-2006年能源消费总量及其增长速度
三、 行业特征
3．1 总体行业
3．1．1 市场规模
图表 10 1999年-2006年户式中央空调市场规模（亿元）
数据来源：中华商务网
图表7中的行业走势柱形表显示，空调行业在长达8年的发展过程中一直呈现稳步上升的发展走势，仅仅是增幅速度在逐步降低。从宏观上来看，与国内的经济发展有很大的关联，固定资产投资与消费直接刺激着空调消费需求的提升。总结从1999年发展以来一直到2006年度，空调行业稳步发展的同时，主导品牌发展变化也十分显著，从开始几家品牌对此概念的提出到生产，再到现在的市场激烈竞争，品牌数量经历了由少数到多数，再到逐步集中的过程。总结2006年度的空调市场，比较明显的特点有以下几点：
1、2006年度户式中央空调市场容量仍在上升过程，稳步增长的同时已经开始向两端扩散，一方面部分机组开始取代一些高端家用机组的使用，而另外一方面大制冷量产品也在扩大商用场所应用范畴，很多企业针对商用场所以及家用场所对产品系列进行了更加细分。
2．2006年户式中央空调部分生产企业提高了产能，满足内部增长需求的同时也开始进一步瞄准国际市场，包括欧美以及东南亚地区。从一定程度上看，出口的提升成为企业的新增长点。单从市场结构比例上来看还不占太多比例，但未来的销售量将逐步增加。
3、2006年度户式中央空调的主要表现企业集中在内资企业以及日资企业，大金，美的等继续引领市场的发展，另外格力、海信等整体情况增长比较迅速。美资企业在国内市场比较稳定，没有呈现太大增长。反而部分企业如约克、麦克维尔等开始关注周边国家的出口。日资企业除加大中国国内市场开拓外，部分产品也在返销日本国内。
4．2006年度户式中央空调传统三大系统产品面临不同的发展，如多联机的增长速度高过平均速度，更广范地被各地消费者接受，预计未来将会继续抢占市场份额。而水系统产品的部分小冷量发展受到一定局限，大冷量产品增长相对较为突出。
5．2006年度户式中央空调区域市场来看，与多联机对应发展的是全国市场主要增长点来自华东地区。包括华东地区的江苏、浙江地区受到了企业的高度重视，很多企业获得了较高的增幅。另外中部地区也是未来一个增长发展点，包括武汉，天津等地，这些城市前几年市场还是处在启动阶段。随着经济的发展，未来需求也会提高，同时在基数较低的情况下取得更高增幅。
6．2006年度户式中央空调产品系列应用遇到更多竞争产品，由于户式中央空调的使用范围不局限在家用场所，因此轻型商用场所的使用近几年也是主要范畴，而目前市场使用机型上面临了更多选择，包括一些水环热泵及水冷柜机等，市场比例也在平稳提高，是本报告中没有统计的部分，加上国家也在出台一些政策支持地热能源等，一定程度上促进了市场发展。
3．1．2 内外销比重
图表 11 2006年户式中央空调市场规模内外销比例分布图（亿元）
数据来源：中华商务网
相比2005年度出口大约10亿左右的户式中央空调，2006年市场增长比较明显。同比增长接近80%左右。图表中的饼图结构也很明显地看出，与2005年对比出口比例在整个市场规模上提高了2个点的份额。出口的比重增加也说明了国内企业对国外市场的注重。据悉一些以家用为主的企业进入商用都开始设立外资部门等。原先的出口品牌主要是美的，海尔 ，格力三家为主，2006年度增加了一部分内资企业，包括奥克斯，志高等都在扩大出口。除本次统计的户式中央空调外，还有很多其他产品出口量也很大，同时一些大型机组的末端出口量也很大。
从国别上来看，南美，澳大利亚，欧洲，东南亚地带成为出口的主要区域。风管机，天花机的出口量占很大比例，同时直流变频多联机也开始再增加出口。由于国外对机组的质量认证等限制严格，因此在生产以及机型设计上企业还在进一步加大力度。
3．1．3 行业运行（按销售量）
图表 12 2006年主要户式中央空调企业总体销售情况统计（按销售量）
企业名称 销售量（万套）
上海大金空调有限公司 12.89
广东美的商用空调设备有限公司 12.44
青岛海尔空调电子有限公司 10.82
珠海格力电器股份有限公司 9.02
特灵空调器有限公司 3.36
约克广州空调冷冻有限公司 3.13
深圳麦克维尔空调有限公司 2.91
上海通惠开利空调有限公司 1.58
青岛海信日立空调系统有限公司 1.43
三菱电机空调影像有限公司 0.99
清华同方人工环境有限公司 0.73
乐金电子（天津）电器有限公司 0.68
其他 19.25
总计 79.31
数据来源：中华商务网
说明：（后述类同）
1、 上图表格中统计的产量单位指的是一个系统即套，不以台数来衡定。
2、 表格中统计的产量均为该企业户式中央空调的相关数值，而非该企业全部产量。
3．1．4 行业运行（按销售额）
图表 13 2006年主要户式中央空调企业总体销售情况统计（按销售额）
企业名称 销售额（亿元）
上海大金空调有限公司 36.35
广东美的商用空调设备有限公司 20.45
青岛海尔空调电子有限公司 18.34
珠海格力电器股份有限公司 13.01
青岛海信日立空调系统有限公司 5.52
约克广州空调冷冻有限公司 5.3
深圳麦克维尔空调有限公司 5.14
特灵空调器有限公司 4.86
三菱电机空调.影像设备有限公司 2.1
清华同方人工环境有限公司 2.01
上海通惠开利空调有限公司 1.49
乐金电子（天津）电器有限公司 1.2
其他 27.61
总计 143.38
数据来源：中华商务网
说明：（后述类同）
上图表格中统计均为该企业户式中央空调的相关数值，而非该企业的全部收入。几家内资企业统计中不包括风冷柜机以及大型螺杆机组等部分销售额，尤其是海尔和美的、格力部分的柜机销售统计。
3．1．5 竞争格局
图表 14 2006年户式中央空调市场品牌格局（按销售量）
数据来源：中华商务网
图表 15 2006年户式中央空调市场品牌格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
3．2 内销状况
3．2．1 市场规模
图表 16 1999年-2006年户式中央空调市场规模（亿元）
数据来源：中华商务网
2006年度国内户式中央空调总体市场规模达到125亿元，通过众多企业的销售情况分析以及国内市场近几年的走势，预计一直到2008年整个国内的市场增长都会比较乐观。
从图表可以看出，内销市场在保持稳步增长的同时，2006年度同比增长还要高于2005年的增幅。据悉主要原因一方面与部分企业天花机的销售量增加有关，另外，小型水机的发展也开始向大冷量靠拢，冷量较大的产品价格也会较高，导致市场额度提高，因此多方面原因的影响所形成。
总体来说，国内对户式中央空调尤其是氟系统的接受程度日益提高，而且住房本身的结构也在增加。据悉一些日资企业的户式中央空调主要增长点越来越多地来自家用场所，比如别墅以及私家公寓等，成为2006年度销售提高的主要拉动因素，因此未来也是企业更为看中的一个主要推广点，并将进一步推进多联机产品的盛行。
3．2．2 行业运行销售额
图表 17 2006年主要户式中央空调企业国内销售情况统计（按销售额）
企业名称 销售额（亿元）
上海大金空调有限公司 35.85
广东美的商用空调设备有限公司 14.55
青岛海尔空调电子有限公司 13.94
珠海格力电器股份有限公司 9.11
青岛海信日立空调系统有限公司 5.22
约克广州空调冷冻有限公司 4.76
特灵空调器有限公司 4.7
深圳麦克维尔空调有限公司 4.44
三菱电机空调.影像设备有限公司 2.1
清华同方人工环境有限公司 2.01
上海通惠开利空调有限公司 1.49
乐金电子（天津）电器有限公司 1.2
其他 25.51
总计 124.88
数据来源：中华商务网
说明：（后述类同）
1、上图表格中统计均为该企业户式中央空调的相关数值，而非该企业的全部收入，不包括柜机部分以及大型机组。
3．2．3 竞争格局
图表 18 2006年户式中央空调国内市场品牌格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
从内销市场总体销售情况以及品牌格局来分析，大金、美的、海尔仍然处于前三位。大金在今年的市场表现更为乐观，在2007年度也将销售目标订得更高。除家用机部分的销售外，大机的增长也是未来一个潜力，预计07年大金的一个重要市场还是主要来自家用别墅等，该公司针对此类场所开发的新冷媒产品销售增长迅速。
据悉美的在2006年度的目标是在内销14亿左右，实际已经完成目标并超过14亿元的销售额。美的销售主要来源于小型机组，大型水机的增长相对没有太大突破。同时2007年度公司扩大了目标，高层领导的变动后提出2007年度目标已锁定内销20亿元左右，意味着40%左右的增长。
海尔据悉在2006年度完成内销总额在20亿左右，由于部分柜式以及大的水机等产品没有列入统计，因此影响了排名位置。而在2007年度预计目标增长幅度大致在20%。同样，珠海格力在2007年度目标制定上也锁定20亿。另外外销市场锁定目标为10亿元。
国内几家领头企业将目标定得如此之高，一方面表现对市场的未来前景看好，另一方面意味着几家在未来市场将会面临更激烈的竞争，包括市场份额的争取。
总体市场评析，2006年度运行较好的企业包括：大金、海信日立、格力、美的、麦克维尔几家，主要依据点是考虑整体销售收入以及增长幅度。目前在产品系列上来看，企业整体的产品线都拉得很长，尤其是内资美的，格力，海尔，从家用空调、小型中央空调到大型离心螺杆机组都在销售，系列齐全几乎与国外企业类似，充分显示出规模性企业的整体实力。
其他品牌如奥克斯、扬子、志高几家在内销以及外销产品上都有一定的增长。值得关注的日资企业还包括三洋、三菱电机、三菱重工海尔、富士通、松下、东芝等都在进一步进军这块市场。无锡富士通在2006年度实现销售大约一亿元左右，并且在2007年扩建厂房，增加外销机型的生产。
目前国家对多联机的能效标准也在制订之中，2007年度将正式推出。2006年度，一些典型的国家建设项目中，变频机组以及环保冷媒产品受到更多重视。海尔，美的在奥运项目上都有不少中标项目，后期预计对生产企业的门槛又会有所提高。加上一些在变频机组上有不少优势的如大金等企业的积极推进，更新速度将更加迅速。据悉大金的新产品基本上维新冷媒的产品，已经基本停止R22的生产。
3．3 外销状况
3．3．1 市场规模
图表 19 2003年-2006年户式中央空调市场规模（亿元）
数据来源：中华商务网
2006年空调出口方面也是一块新兴起的市场。在2006年18.5亿销售额的基础上，预计到2008年将达到40亿左右。由于出口企业的数量较内销要少很多，因此这几年的市场容量不会有太大突破，可能继续以美的，格力，海尔等厂家为主。其他品牌也保持增长态势。出口的产品继续以多联机以及天花类、风管机等产品为主。
如果按照户式中央空调的排名情况来看，现在排在首位的应该为广东美的，海尔市场表现也还突出，其他品牌如海信日立，上海大金，约克，麦克维尔等要排在其后。根据产品特点，产品主销市场也各不相同，如海信日立的出口区域较多，包括日本，台湾以及欧洲，亚洲等地；上海大金主要以返销日本为主；约克、麦克维尔主要针对亚洲市场。其他一些内资品牌也主要沿用家用的渠道在继续拓展。
3．3．2 销售额
图表 20 2006年主要户式中央空调企业出口销售情况统计（按销售额）
企业名称 销售额（亿元）
广东美的商用空调设备有限公司 5.9
青岛海尔空调电子有限公司 4.4
珠海格力电器股份有限公司 3.9
深圳麦克维尔空调有限公司 0.7
约克广州空调冷冻有限公司 0.54
上海大金空调有限公司 0.5
青岛海信日立空调系统有限公司 0.3
特灵空调器有限公司 0.16
其他 2.1
总计 18.5
数据来源：中华商务网
3．3．3 竞争格局
图表 21 2006年户式中央空调外销市场品牌格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
四、产品特征
4．1 总体特征
图表 22 2006年户式中央空调市场总体产品结构比例（按输送介质-销售量）
数据来源：中华商务网
图表 23 2006年户式中央空调市场产品结构比例（按输送介质-销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
4．2 冷媒式系统
4．2．1 市场规模
图表 24 2003-2006年冷媒式系统市场规模(亿元)
数据来源：中华商务网
2006年度冷媒式户式中央空调市场容量大幅上升，从一定程度上挤占了很多小冷量水机产品的市场份额，尤其在家用场所，更是对小水机形成了强烈的冲击。2006年度冷媒式产品的上升同样受到出口的影响，目前出口的众多产品都是冷媒式，因此市场增速提高很快。
国内市场方面，除了几家内资品牌推广这些产品之外，很多日资企业均以此类产品为主导。日资产品在中国家用产品品牌认知度相对要高，质量等相对稳定，因此国内市场表现较好，在一定程度上带动了消费者的认可程度。
多联机的迅速发展以及在终端的接受程度的提高，众多业内人士认为应该得益于大金公司，多家企业的共同推广，使认知度范围不断扩大。其本身也有一定的优势，在一些面积较少的小型场所应用情况确实比其他系统更好，通过近几年发展国内各大厂家的产品系列已经较为齐全。
4．2．2 行业运行
图表 25 2006年冷媒式系统细分行业企业销售状况汇总
企业名称 销售量（万套） 销售额 （亿元）
上海大金空调有限公司 11.09 33.4
广东美的商用空调设备有限公司 8.65 15.75
青岛海尔空调电子有限公司 7.21 12.98
珠海格力电器股份有限公司 6.62 8.9
青岛海信日立空调系统有限公司 1.24 4.97
三菱电机空调影像设备有限公司 0.64 1.8
深圳麦克维尔空调有限公司 0.25 1.34
乐金电子（天津）电器有限公司 0.51 1.02
上海通惠开利空调有限公司 0.51 0.48
特灵空调器有限公司 0.18 0.4
其他 9.85 15.8
总计 46.75 96.84
数据来源：中华商务网
4．2．3 竞争格局
图表 26 2006年冷媒式系统细分行业品牌竞争格局（按销售量）
（冷媒式总体）
数据来源：中华商务网
图表 27 2006年冷媒式系统细分行业品牌竞争格局（按销售额）
（冷媒式总体）
数据来源：中华商务网
从冷媒式系统的整体销售情况来看，大金在变频多联机市场的地位更进一步，占据接近40%的份额，稳居首位。大金能够保持这样高的市场份额，也有很多本身的原因。大金进入中国市场已有十年之久，销售人员数量多，从业素质较高，为其进一步推广市场奠定了有利的基础。从大金2006年的表现来看，多联机成为主打产品，而单元式产品因为没有太多优势而受到价格的限制。2006年度大金在家用中央空调方面开发了更多产品，显示出对市场的重视，对应本年度新产品市场份额的增速也是十分明显。从区域销售来看，大金的主导销售市场华东地区占销售额绝对比例，包括江苏、浙江、上海三地。据悉浙江、江苏2006年度均超额提前完成销售任务，销售额超过10亿以上；广州、深圳两地增幅也较高。
同样如此，在氟系统销售处于领先的美的，在江苏、浙江两地的销售也是主要的增长地区，其他优势区域包括上海，广州，深圳等地。美的2006年度针对市场推出几款新品，其中数码涡旋新一代产品受市场接受度很高。不过美的在大型中央空调的表现上就目前来看要逊于海尔与格力两家。
同时对比几家主导企业的近三年销售情况显示，在多联机市场的增长速度保持很高，因此从很大程度上带动了行业的发展，企业的大利的推广更提高了消费者的接受程度。
毫无疑问，多联机是市场目前发展最为乐观的产品，从另一层面来说，可能也是对水机产品或者说原有的市场份额结构冲击最强的产品。经过近几年的发展，国内生产该类产品的企业已经相当多；日资产品在机型设计、外观以及噪音控制、节能等方面做的很好；而由于美国用户的住所面积大，所以美系产品在噪音控制方面显得粗糙一些。
4．3 冷热水式系统
4．3．1 冷热水式系统市场规模
图表 28 2003-2006年冷热水式系统市场规模(亿元)
数据来源：中华商务网
水机市场在三年前增长迅速，目前已经形成了成熟稳定的市场，增长相对平稳。目前市场上户式中央空调水系统的生产厂家数量不下50家，生产力相对比较分散。水机面临的市场竞争产品更是种类繁多，包括水冷柜机以及水源热泵等。目前户式水机的市场竞争虽然相当激烈，但能够把产品真正做好的企业不多，并且能够在实际中应用好的就更少了。除了产品质量本身因素外，在设计、选型、施工、验收、调试、售后方面也无法与外资品牌相媲美。
但在一些小型商用场所，目前应用较多的倒是风冷模块机组，无论从此类新产品的研发推广，还是销售额上的考虑，都是厂家认为发展迅速的一类产品。其产品的范畴也对小型风冷热泵冷水机组形成强大的冲击。
4．3．2 行业运行
图表 29 2006年冷热水式系统细分行业企业销售状况汇总
企业名称 销售量（万套） 销售额 （亿元）
约克广州空调冷冻有限公司 1.28 3.05
特灵空调器有限公司 0.83 2.65
深圳麦克维尔空调有限公司 0.71 2.3
青岛海尔空调电子有限公司 0.71 1.66
清华同方人工环境有限公司 0.73 2.01
广东美的商用空调设备有限公司 0.49 1.02
珠海格力电器股份有限公司 0.3 0.86
上海通惠开利空调有限公司 0.35 0.6
上海大金空调有限公司 0 0
乐金电子（天津）电器有限公司 0 0
苏州三星电子有限公司 0 0
青岛海信日立空调系统有限公司 0 0
其他 3.8 7.65
总计 9.2 21.8
数据来源：中华商务网
4．3．3 竞争格局
图表 30 2006年冷热水式系统细分行业品牌竞争格局（按销售量）
数据来源：中华商务网
图表 31 2006年冷热水式系统细分行业品牌竞争格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
水机市场的产品类别相对较广。目前市场上拥有的水系统产品主要包括小型风冷热泵机组，小型水环热泵机组以及小型模块机组，这些产品之间的应用存在着明显的交叉。另外还有单元式柜机。以水冷柜机为例，也是一个不小的市场。本报告统计的产品主要包括小型风冷热泵水机产品以及小型模块式冷水机组。
2006年度情况显示，约克以及特灵的小型冷热水机组发展较好，开利增长幅度较高。而模块机组的发展情况上几家美国企业大致相同，麦克维尔居于前位。因此从整体收入上来说，几家美资企业的整体情况比较均衡，主要区别体现在市场策略以及价格等方面。国内企业海尔和清华同方主推变频户式水机，发展相对平稳。
综合来说，美国的几家品牌虽然在增速上没有太大的突破（基本保持在10%以内的增速），但在这块市场仍然保持领先地位，并且在大的风冷模块机组销售上都有所突破。同时其他类似产品如水冷柜机也相继在市场上拼杀出成绩。
众多水机厂家中，约克产品的销售走在前列。在市场角度来看，其销售制度以及体制建立、渠道网络铺设等方面十分灵活，在北京等大城市建立的大型社区样板工程也是较多。但在终端市场的推广力度却尚需加强，包括与设计院的联络以及平面广告的宣传等都是多联机要多。
4.4 风管式系统
4．4．1 市场规模
图表 32 2003-2006年风管式系统市场规模(亿元)
数据来源：中华商务网
风管机产品种类繁多，主要以一拖一的分体式为主，包括高静压，低静压等。从市场规模来看，发展比较平缓，预计未来的市场走势也将进一步放慢。
经过分析风管机的企业情况得出，格力的增长比较明显，目前约克，特灵等公司在产品上都分别有家用和商用分体产品。另外也有许多厂家推广此类产品，包括南京天加，浙江国祥等。内资企业在这块市场主要是以一拖一的机型为主。
2006年度市场占有比例较高的几家美国企业的风管机表现也不是很突出，因此在该市场没有太多突破。相反内资企业在家用风管机上的表现要好一些。由于风管机价格适中，因此使用量比较大。同时企业这部分产品在北美、南美市场也占有很大部分比例。
4．4．2 行业运行
图表 33 2006年风管式系统细分行业企业销售状况汇总
企业名称 销售量（万套） 销售额 （亿元）
青岛海尔空调电子有限公司 2.9 3.7
广东美的商用空调设备有限公司 3.3 3.68
珠海格力电器股份有限公司 2.1 3.25
上海大金空调有限公司 1.8 2.95
约克广州空调冷冻有限公司 1.93 2.25
特灵空调器有限公司 2.35 1.81
深圳麦克维尔空调有限公司 1.95 1.5
青岛海信日立空调系统有限公司 0.19 0.55
上海通惠开利空调有限公司 0.72 0.41
三菱电机空调影响设备有限公司 0.35 0.3
乐金电子（天津）电器有限公司 0.17 0.18
其他 5.6 4.16
总计 23.36 24.74
数据来源：中华商务网
4．4．3 竞争格局
图表 34 2006年风管式系统细分行业品牌竞争格局（按销售量）
数据来源：中华商务网
图表 35 2006年风管式系统细分行业品牌竞争格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
五、终端市场
图表 36 2006年户式中央空调终端市场分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
图表 37 2004-2006年户式中央空调终端市场走势（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
2006年户式中央空调基本保持稳定增长的态势，且仍然以华东、华北和华南三大区域为主，从我网监测的十家主要城市来看，合计共占到了近56%的市场份额，其中，位居前三位的是上海（14.8%）、北京（8.7%）和深圳（5.6%）。除上海外，华东地区的南京、苏州、杭州等亦表现不俗，四座城市合计占到了四分之一以上的市场份额，达28.7%，其中又以苏州市场增长最为显著。此外，除深圳外，华南的广州市场也保持较高的比例。
5．1 上海
图表 38 2006年上海户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征：上海市场容量大，成熟度高。2006年上海户式中央空调市场仍保持一定的增长，总容量在18.5亿元左右，同比2005年稳步呈上升趋势。从总体来看，上海的户机消费市场主要呈现三个特征：1、品牌的接受度高，日资品牌竞争力强；2、零售市场较大；3、购买能力强，其中，高档楼盘非常讲究品牌和档次，大部分选用大金的变频多联机。
◆ 企业及产品表现：在上海，多联机的产品优势十分明显，尤其是变频多联机盛行，销量远高于冷热水式和风管式的产品。除了企业的重点推广之外，多联机成为上海的主流户机产品，主要是由上海的居住条件和经济条件所决定的。而从2006品牌竞争格局我们同样可以看出，位居前列的均是主推多联机的日资或本土企业，仅大金、美的、海尔和海信日立四家就占据了七成的市场。强势品牌大金2006年了占到了一半以上的市场份额，其上海市场的经销商规模也进一步扩大，仅上海分公司所辖区域的大金经销商就超过500家，其中销售额过亿的有2家。而美的和海信日立则在上海的教育系统项目上表现出色。此外，据了解，麦克维尔本年度由于人事变动频繁，其上海市场受到一定影响。
5．2 北京
图表 39 2006年北京户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征：北京市场趋于成熟，相比上海市场，容量要小得多，2006年北京的户式中央空调市场整体容量约在10.87亿左右，同比2005年同比增长约17%。
北京市场的特征也十分明显，其销售的户机产品中，零售业务普遍，约占到了50%以上；由于地处政治高地，一方面企业可以直接迅速地获取政策等信息，另一方面，政府及各种关系法则的作用相对其他城市更为明显；而北京的经销商实力相对上海来说更为分散和薄弱，基本在2000万元销售额以下，且没有绝对的强势垄断品牌，与房地产商、装饰公司或设计院合作成为销售主流。此外，由于北京自然环境的限制，遍布的暖气管网基本可以负担北京部分冬季的供热负荷，相对而言北京对于空调的制冷力要求更高，客观的环境对产品提出了更高的要求，稳定性成为考验空调品质的首要标准。
◆ 企业及产品表现：在北京市场，冷热水式产品占据了较大的优势，约占到七成的比例，其次是多联机和风管机。而在水机和风管机方面，约可和麦克维尔2006年表现不俗，大金则仍在冷媒式市场占据高地。此外，北京市场包括奥运会的一些基础建设项目推动了户式中央空调市场的稳步增长，如海尔2006年在奥运项目上的表现，仅奥运场馆就有16家应用其设备，多为多联机设备。而房地产楼盘等均成为户式中央空调的主要需求，无论是商务楼还是住宅小区，都具有一定的档次，楼盘品味都较高。
5．3 广州
图表 40 2006年广州户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征： 2006年广州户式中央空调整体容量达6.5亿左右，较2005年有小幅增长。广东与其他城市相比有一个较为突出的特点，即小型商铺、专卖店等商业场所及娱乐性的酒吧、咖啡场所应用空调相当广泛，因此冷媒一拖一式的产品就有一定的优势，在价格、外型设计等方面成众多商业用户的首选。随着2010年亚运会在广州举办，广州也将增加配套相应的公共设施，如三、五星级酒店，这些工程都将在2008年完全投入使用，所以这些项目上的空调设备投入还将在2007年保持一定的增长。而2007年受房产政策影响，其他房产类项目将受一定限制。
◆ 企业及产品表现：在广东，品牌众多，竞争十分激烈。由于广东靠近热带地区，对于制热要求不是很高，因此，广州当地的产品主要以单冷机型为主，包括一些大冷量的冷水机组，同样是单冷形式的产品。而2006年，麦克维尔和美的广州市场销售迅猛增长，麦克维尔商用机组占到整个销售的80%以上。美的的销售增长主要依赖于小水机的良好表现。三菱重工海尔06年广州业绩达5000万元。而随着近几年多联机在广州市场的日益增多，海信日立广州办事处同样保持高增长率，据悉其增幅超过100%，先后取得联合国际学院、珠海华发世纪城等大型项目，并欲在2007年重点开拓二级市场，在中山设立代表处，寻求多联机品牌的差异化竞争。
5．4 深圳
图表 41 2006年深圳户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征： 深圳市场增长一直比较稳定，2006年深圳户式中央空调市场容量在6.95亿左右（不包括东莞等周边地区），较2005年增幅达31%。目前，深圳市场表现比较明显的特征有：1、市场竞争激烈，日资品牌认知度高；2、消费群体主要是住宅、政府和高档商业场所。而房地产中的会所、商场、娱乐业、餐饮以及写字楼、住宅等项目处于上升状态。
◆ 与广州市场一样，深圳的户式中央空调消费市场同样以单冷机为主。用户消费意识很高，对冷媒式产品接受程度更高。当地风管机很少，多联机主要是变频。2006年度各大企业在户机中央空调方面的表现来看，大金仍然位居第一，销售额在1亿元左右，其深圳销售增长点主要在家用多联机，约占到深圳多联机市场一半的份额。大金单元机较少，约克在当地的业绩为4000万元，开利2000多万元，特灵1000万元，三家内资企业销售排名依次是格力、美的和海尔。
5．5 南京
图表 42 2006年南京户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征： 2006年南京地区户式中央空调体容量在5.65亿左右，较2004年有13%的平稳上涨。作为江苏省的省会城市，南京的城市建设保持了稳定的增长，政府、民营企业的投资项目比较多，由此带来的户式中央空调产品一定的需求增长。
◆ 企业及产品表现：南京作为华东地区的重点城市，其气候环境使得多联机产品逐渐成为用户选择的主角，占据的市场份额在几种不同的机型中是最高的。而风管机独有的价格优势，决定了风管机较水系统产品更受欢迎，位居亚军。由于市场开发较早，且相对成熟，包括特灵、麦克维尔、美的在内的大部分企业都力求在南京市场保持比较稳定的发展势头，且都十分重视渠道建设，重点发展经销商的实力，并将其势力逐步向周边城市扩展。从2006年企业表现来看，大金、约克、麦克维尔等位居前列。
南京地区的用户可以大致分为政府部门、外资企业以及私营业主，大金将目标锁定在前两者的高端用户，其市场也基本表现在这类高端产品市场，2006年其占据了南京近三分之一的市场。而约克和麦克维尔的风管机在南京当地占有一定的市场。南京清华同方的经销商政策相对表现的较为优惠。
5．6 苏州
图表 43 2006年苏州户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征：苏州市场作为2006增长最为突出的市场，其2006年户式中央空调市场容量约5.7亿元，同比增幅高达50%。
◆ 企业及产品表现：从2006年企业表现来看，大金、美的、海尔位居前三，大金苏州2006年销售超2亿元，占据四成市场。几家美资企业也都表现出较快的增幅，约克苏州办事处近几年表现一直比较出色，其中风管机的销售额十分突出，销售业绩保持稳定快速的增长。特灵2006年苏州市场增长迅速，甚至高于其强势销售区域杭州的增长幅度。此外，据了解，苏州是南京天加销售情况的最好的区域，近几年一直保持稳定高速的增长。
5．7 杭州
图表 44 2006年杭州户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征：由于杭州市场的良好表现，本年度终端部分特增加了该市场的监测。从杭州市场来看，因其地处浙江，具有较好的经济基础，因此整个市场已经初步趋于稳定的状态，近几年仍具有不错的发展势头。2006年其整个市场容量在5.95亿元。此外，杭州市场表现比较明显的都是经销商垄断市场的情况，企业对经销商网络的依赖度比较大，经销商实力及网络将直接影响企业的项目表现，如大金、约克、特灵。
◆ 企业及产品表现：从杭州市场的企业表现来看，大金主要通过杭州樱杭和杭州美佳两大金牌经销商在当地市场的作用，其变频多联机系统占据了杭州市场的三分之一的天下。而除了大金之外，美的、海尔、格力和约克和特灵相比于其他品牌具有较大的优势。麦克维尔和开利在杭州的表现则相对以上品牌更弱一些。此外，清华同方主推模块机和户式水机；南京天加主推模块机；海尔、美的等以冷媒式一拖一等为主。
5．8 成都
图表 45 2006年成都户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征：成都作为四川中央空调发展的重点城市，大约占到了四川市场的半边天。2006年成都户式中央空调保持较快的增长，市场容量约3.1亿元，较2005年同比增长了29%左右。成都市场相对于其他市场起步较晚，但增长速度较快。成都市场受价格因素影响较大，且强势经销商不多见，品牌忠诚度也没有其他城市高。
◆ 企业及产品表现：成都市场水机运用较少，主要是以风管机和多联机为主。多联机销售较好的仍然以大金的变频多联机为代表，2006年约占据整个市场13%的份额，大金在成都市场也培养了一些相对有实力的经销商，如成都新索宇。风管机销售代表则主要是麦克维尔、约克等美资企业，其中又以麦克维尔的性价比较高，2006年其户机销售额约在5000万元左右。国内品牌格力、海尔等在成都市场的表现则明显高于美的的表现。格力2006年在川北的表现十分不错。此外，志高在06年8月也在成都正式设立了产品管理中心，其风管机在成都有良好的表现。
5．9 武汉
图表 46 2006年武汉户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征： 武汉作为后期发展起来的市场之一，市场潜力较大。2006年武汉地区户式中央空调市场容量在3.2亿元左右，与2004年相比其市场容量增长了28%。武汉户式中央空调主要适用于价格在80平米以上，面积120平米以下的房屋。武汉经销商实力相对亦较为薄弱。
◆ 企业及产品表现：在武汉水机市场容量大，市场认可度高。近几年，多联机发展较快，目前，主要投标项目有政府，医院，金融业等等。一般考虑到舒适度的消费者会购买水机，注重档次的则会购买多联机。特灵和约克的水机在武汉市场表现不错，麦克维尔在武汉的工厂，占有一定的地理优势。美的其数码涡旋多联机在该市场有良好的表现，大金则在成都电信系统项目上占有一定的优势。
5．10 西安
图表 47 2006年西安户式中央空调市场品牌分布格局（按销售额）
数据来源：中华商务网
◆ 市场特征：2006年西安户式中央空调市场容量在3.65亿左右，较2005年同比增长了9%。
◆ 企业及产品表现：在西安，由于大型项目不多，小机的增长要快于大机。从户式中央空调市场各产品来看，水机应用较多，价格因素的作用表现得十分明显。由于美的产品价格低，在市场表现突出，位居格力、海尔之前。而格力则由于质量方面的优势，销售情况好于海尔。海尔进入西安时间较晚，尚处于开拓阶段，但其经销商渠道发展不俗。另据经销商反映，清华同方空调的自控技术较好，但在宣传方面力度欠缺。
六、主要部件
6．1 涡旋压缩机市场规模
图表 48 2002－2006年涡旋压缩机内销趋势对比表（含进口）
图表 49 2006年度涡旋压缩机企业产销汇总表
单位：万台
企业 项目 中国制造 进口 在华销售
产量 销量 其中出口 其中内销
谷轮 量值（万台） 69.1 64.4 11.4 53 9.2 62.2
金额（亿元） 7.4 6.9 1.9 5 2.6 7.6
大金 量值（万台） 58.7 55.5 2.5 53 0 53
金额（亿元） 6.7 6.4 0.5 5.9 0 5.9
三洋 量值（万台） 66 63.9 8 55.9 0 55.9
金额（亿元） 0 6.9 0.9 6 0 6
日立 量值（万台） 28.5 28 2 26 0 26
金额（亿元） 2.9 2.9 0.2 2.7 0 2.7
丹佛斯 量值（万台） 7.5 7.4 4.4 3 0 3
金额（亿元） 3.5 3.4 1.8 1.6 0 1.6
布里斯托 量值（万台） 0 0 0 0 1.6 1.6
金额（亿元） 0 0 0 0 1 1
总计 量值（万台） 229.8 219.2 28.3 190.9 10.8 201.7
金额（亿元） 20.4 26.4 5.2 21.1 3.6 24.7
数据来源：中华商务网
◆2006年下游空调企业柜机生产较为充分，补充了2005年受能效比实施影响延后的柜机生产，因此2007年仅柜机市场对涡旋压缩机的需求会较2006年有所减少，但商用空调市场还将保持平稳增长，因此国内市场涡旋压缩机的总体需求应该在190万台上下的高位盘整，大幅提高的可能性不大。
◆目前中国已成为涡旋压缩机亚太地区主要生产基地，因此在出口方面将持续增长，预计全年出口总量将有望突破35万台。
◆但从目前行业的产能看，产量远大于市场的实际需求，因此供过于求的局面依旧存在，价格竞争还将继续。
◆品牌竞争将更为激烈，广州日立2007年将迅速崛起，大连三洋因格力的依托也将有强劲的发展势头，相反艾默生、西安大金面临的增长压力较大。
◆3HP机的结构比例还将继续萎缩，预计只能抢占20万台左右的高端产品的市场份额。 ◆产品向大型化发展，无论是单机还是并联来实现制冷量的拓展都是未来涡旋压缩机发展的趋势。2007年并联机市场还将继续扩大。
◆新冷媒及变容量产品较保持平稳增长态势，但2007年仍很难放量。
◆5HP双转子在2007年仍就难以对涡旋压缩机形成冲击，可能为2008年埋下隐患。
◆商用空调企业将成为涡旋压缩机争夺的又一重点客户，这部分客户对产品品质更为关注，价格不是主要考的考虑因素。三大主力客户，特别是在格力、美的供给方面的争夺将更为激烈，供给价格也将有可能继续走低。
6．2 涡旋压缩机产品结构
图表 50 2006年空调涡旋式压缩机产品结构（按定速、变频、数码）
数据来源：中华商务网
图表 51 2005年空调涡旋式压缩机产品结构（按制冷剂）
数据来源：中华商务网
6．3 涡旋压缩机客户供应表
图表 52 2005、2006年涡旋压缩机企业国内核心客户供应对比
企业名称 艾默生 大金 三洋 日立 丹佛斯 布里斯托 总计
格力 21.7 6.6 29.6 0.4 0 58.3
美的 14.6 5.6 4.8 9.6 0.12 34.72
海尔 0.1 8 2 3.2 0 1.6 14.9
志高 0.07 0.5 6.3 6.87
三菱重工海尔 5.1 1.2 6.3
大金 5 5
奥克斯 0.05 1.3 1.8 0.8 0 3.95
特灵 2.8 0 0 0 0.88 3.68
麦克维尔 0.7 1.6 0 0.8 0 3.1
LG 2.6 0.2 2.8
科龙 0 2.2 2.2
约克 0.9 0.5 0 0.4 0.3 2.1
TCL 1.2 0.8 2
海信日立 1.9 1.9
开利 0.6 0 0.9 1.5
松下 0.8 0.7 1.5
格兰仕 1.3 0.1 1.4
天加 0.2 1.2 1.4
贝莱特 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.4
长虹 0 0.8 0 0.3 0 1.1
春兰 0.5 0.6 1.1
海信 0.3 0.8 1.1
三星 1.1 1.1
上菱 0.92 0.92
国祥 0.5 0.4 0.9
同方 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9
新科 0.4 0 0.4
盾安 0.3 0.3
小天鹅 0.2 0.2
夏普 0.1 0.1
代理 5 5.1 3.8 1 0.2 15.1
其他 10.4 14.8 11.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 38.56
总计 62.2 53.0 55.9 26.0 3.0 1.6 201.7
七、未来预测
市场容量：伴随国内经济稳步增长，预计中国中央空调市场近几年将始终保持高度增长，主要城市的增长将来自于奥运、世博等项目的推进。而非主流城市基数低，因此在市场上升空间继续高。对应空调企业的增长也会保持迅速，各项产品趋势前面图表均已作预测。总体来看，多联机是小型中央空调未来增长点，内外销将过百亿，外销增幅会相对较高。
品牌特征：内资品牌继续稳步上升，企业整体增长速度仍高，但在局部产品市场保持稳定，企业综合势力将进一步加强。包括美的，格力，海尔等在2007年都将大型中央空调作为重点增长目标，海尔针对大型中央空调的销售目标大约是在6亿左右，美的实现国内增长40%，大型空调必然成为重中之重。相比之下日资品牌产品单一，将继续以多联机为主推，包括海信日立等。美资企业重点目标仍然在模块水机以及更大冷量的产品，外销部分也会继续增长。
产品特征：多联机继续领军家用别墅等市场，未来市场份额进一步加大，政府采购方面也将进一步侧重这类机型，以环保节能作为重要参考因素。而水机以及风管机根据机型及应用场所将在商用领域仍有适当表现。预计制冷量稍高产品的销售将会进一步提升。由于国家部分政策的出台，一些非统计内的产品将会获得更多应用，如水环热泵等产品继续小幅度上升。部分产品如一拖一类机型，由于技术含量相对较低，因此市场份额将更进一步集中到内资品牌如格力，海尔等等。
终端推广：企业将针对不同系统应用采用不同的推广方式，同时由于多联机的日益盛行，将进一步加大推广力度。以增加终端人群对品牌及该系统产品的认可程度，4S等形象门面店还将继续增加，开发终端消费者层面以及增大网络广告的投放将成为重点。
市场利润：由于介入企业之间更加激烈的竞争，而且企业为了争夺市场领先地位都将市场目标制定得很高，因此在产品价格定价方面将会更加灵活，同时企业的整体利润将面临进一步下降。尤其在多联机，天花机等产品的稳步走向成熟过程，利润空间更为减少。相对来说，未来利润可能更多来自大型中央空调机组，另外还有出口部分的增长。
Research Report on Residential Central Air Conditioning System for Year 2006
Chinese Commercial Air Conditioner Business Website
(http://www．chinaccm．com/31)
March 28, 2007
List of Figures
I. Introduction
1.1 Objectives
This report aims to help enterprises better understand the situation in the industry by researching the current status of the industry. This report attempts to find out some regularity of the development of residential central air conditioning systems and provide raw materials for the investors and corporate managers to further understand the current status and trend of the air conditioner industry in China.
1.2 Research methods
Most data of this report derives from the telephone and on-site investigation and research through the Chinese Business Website, and the third-party data primarily derives from China Customs, China Refrigerating Air Conditioner Industry Association, and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The surveyors collect and analyze data carefully, and try to ensure their rationality, reliability and accuracy. However, with limited scope of survey, fluctuant market environments and many unpredictable factors, we do not guarantee that every item of data is completely consistent with the current or future facts.
1.3 Description on the report
Not intended as an industrial development report of any governmental organization, this report is only for reference for the enterprises in the industry. This report is for internal research of enterprises only, and shall not be manipulated by any enterprise to tout commercially, or disclosed by any enterprise in part or in full to any third-party organizations or individuals without our prior written approval.
◆ Without our written authorization, no newspaper, periodical, magazine, website or television station is allowed to reproduce, rebroadcast, reference or publish any texts or data herein. Otherwise, we will initiate legal proceedings in an effort to safeguard our rights and interests, and the enterprises shall undertake settlement of the disputes arising therefrom by themselves.
◆ Since the air conditioning industry is more than an ordinary consumables industry, the product categorization methods for it are multitudinous. In order to help enterprises better understand the market, the report will sort the products simply, and, on the basis of our research for previous years, add the one-pulling-one large split embedded air conditioner product, which is now growing fast in the market.
◆Since the enterprises now start to care for overseas markets, the proportion of the product in export is on the rise. Therefore, annual report makes statistics of the export status in order to reflect the domestic market status more accurately.
1.4 Definition of concepts
The residential central air conditioning system traces back to the U.S., and is a category of commercial air conditioner. It is a small stand-alone air conditioning system, and verges on the large central air conditioning system in terms of refrigeration mode and basic structure, where one main unit connects multiple end air outlets through the duct or cooling/heating pipe, and supply the cool/warm air to different areas to regulate temperatures of multiple rooms. In order to facilitate this survey and future ongoing comparison and research, the research center of this Website hereby defines that the residential central air conditioning system is:
◆ An air conditioning system driven by electric power (in contrast to the type of gas-driven air conditioning systems such as Changsha Yuanda, Qingdao Tonghe, Yantai Renyuan, and Jiangsu Shuangliang, which are not included into the survey or definition herein); one main unit (which can consist of multiple compressors connected in parallel) drives multiple end inner units through duct air supply, water or refrigerant to control temperatures in different rooms and regulate the air. The core part is the compressor, whose capacity is automatically controllable.
◆ Range of refrigeration capacity: 7KW~40KW, i.e., 3P~15P; applicable to rooms of 60~500 square meters in homes, small department stores, restaurants and business offices. Depending on the end air supply mode, they are categorized into embedded type, wedged type, ceiling-mounted type, floor-mounted type and duct type.
◆Depending on the conveyance media, they are categorized into duct system, cooling/heating water system and refrigerant system (the statistics herein primarily include the one-pulling-one and one-pulling-many systems). Since the refrigerant one-pulling-many proudcts are combined in many ways, this report basically covers that type of product.
◆Depending on the type of conveyance media, they are categorized into: Primary refrigerant type (where the main outdoor unit is connected to multiple indoor units through refrigerant pipes to form an air conditioning network system, and both the outdoor and indoor units use the refrigerant to convey cool volume, which is now known as the refrigerant type), and secondary refrigerant type (where the outdoor unit conveys the cool volume to water or air through the primary refrigerant, and then the water or air serves as secondary refrigerant to convey the cool volume to all air conditioning end terminals requiring it. What are now known as duct type and cooling/heating water type belong to the secondary refrigerant type).
II. Macro analysis
2.1 External environment
2.1.1 Macro environment
As measured preliminarily, the Chinese GDP for the year 2006 is 20940.7 billion yuan, up 10.7% over the previous year, which gains 0.3 percentage point, of which the primary industry gains 2470 billion yuan, up 5.0%, the secondary industry gains 10200.4 billion yuan, up 12.5%, and the tertiary industry gains 8270.3 yuan, up 10.3%. The quarter-over-quarter GDP climbed up 10.4%, 11.5%, 10.6% and 10.4%, respectively.
The fixed assets investment in 2006 grows fast but the growth rate pulls back. The fixed assets investment over the year throughout the society is 10987 billion yuan, up 24.0% but back 2.0 percentage points. Among them, the urban fixed assets investment is 9347.2 billion yuan, up 24.5% but back 2.7 percentage points (in December, it is 1416 billion yuan, up 13.8%); the rural fixed assets investment rises 21.3%. Looking at the urban fixed assets investment geographically, the central region gains 33.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, but the east and west regions gain 20.6% and 25.9%, back 3.4 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively. The real estate development investment in 2006 is 1938.2 billion yuan, which climbs 21.8% over the previous year, up 0.9 percentage point.
The overall fundamental perspective of macro economy operation of China in 2006 may be depicted as "fast growth, high benefits, and low price". The global economy growth in 2006 is approx. 3.9% on average, but China gains more than 10%, which takes a lead in the world. The Chinese economy growth gains a 10%+ rate on a four-year streak, hence fast growth speed is one of the basic characteristics of the Chinese macro economy operation. From perspective of benefits, the total national fiscal revenue in 2005 is approx. 3 trillion yuan, and in 2006 is greater than 3.9 trillion, which means a gain of 0.9 trillion over the previous year. The enterprise profits also gains 30.7% as against the same period of the previous year. As measured preliminarily, the urban residential revenue per capita rises 10%+ and the rural residential revenue per capita rises 6%+. All such aspects reach a basic conclusion that the Chinese economic growth brings upbeat benefits. Currently, the development environment in China is more favorable, the development conditions are optimizing, and the development momentum is improving.
Annex: Trend of growth of Chinese economic indices in 2002-2006
Figure 1 GDP and its growth rate in 2002-2006
Figure 2 Fixed assets investment and its growth rate in 2002-2006
Figure 3 Total retail of social consumables and its growth rate in 2002-2006
Figure 4 Per capita disposable income of urban residents and its growth rate in 2002-2006
Figure 5 Urban and rural residential Renminbi savings and growth rate in 2002-2006
Figure 6 Fulfillment of fixed assets investment in the whole society in 2006
Contents Actual fulfillment Growth rate Weight (%)
2006 % 2006 2005
(i) Investment fulfillment amount ('00,000,000 yuan) 93472.36 24.5 100.0 100.0
where: State-owned and state-controlled 45211.61 16.9 48.4 51.5
where: Residence 16260.96 26.8 17.4 17.1
1. As per industry
Primary industry 1101.71 30.7 1.2 1.1
Secondary industry 39759.88 25.9 42.5 42.1
Tertiary industry 52610.77 23.3 56.3 56.8
2. As per attribution
Central government project 10792.36 21.1 11.5 11.9
Local project 82680.00 24.9 88.5 88.1
3. As per construction nature
New 44346.07 29.9 47.4 45.4
Expanded 15649.33 19.0 16.7 17.5
Reconstructed 9799.14 12.4 10.5 11.6
4.As per composition
Construction and installation project 57124.51 23.8 61.1 61.5
Equipment and appliance purchase 20437.40 24.3 21.9 21.9
Other expenses 15910.44 27.3 17.0 16.6
II. Urban housing area ('0,000 square meters)
Construction area 342140.00 16.4
where: Residence 186826.28 19.5
Completion area 112097.26 4.6
where: Residence 59404.54 5.1
III. New urban fixed assets investment ('00,000,000 yuan) 50323.58 11.3
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Note: In the group divided as per construction name, no real estate investment is included.
Figure 7 Local fulfillment of urban fixed assets investment in 2006
Region Investment amount ('00,000,000 yuan) Growth over the previous year Weight(suppose aggregate of investment is 100)
2006 % 2006 2005
National total 93472.36 24.5 100.0 100.0
I. East region 48966.50 20.6 52.4 54.1
Beijing 3086.29 18.9 3.3 3.5
Tianjin 1678.98 23.1 1.8 1.8
Hebei 4430.61 33.9 4.7 4.4
Liaoning 4977.15 35.7 5.3 4.9
Shanghai 3497.48 9.3 3.7 4.3
Jiangsu 7473.69 20.2 8.0 8.3
Zhejiang 5428.03 13.4 5.8 6.4
Fujian 2730.11 39.4 2.9 2.6
Shandong 8714.86 19.8 9.3 9.7
Guangdong 6552.58 11.2 7.0 7.8
Hainan 396.73 16.9 0.4 0.5
II. Central region 22503.04 33.1 24.1 22.5
Shanxi 2059.24 23.6 2.2 2.2
Jilin 2366.05 49.6 2.5 2.1
Helongjiang 2040.41 29.0 2.2 2.1
Anhui 3057.86 43.8 3.3 2.8
Jiangxi 2377.41 25.0 2.5 2.5
Henan 4843.76 39.9 5.2 4.6
Hubei 3039.87 27.3 3.3 3.2
Hunan 2718.44 23.3 2.9 2.9
III. West region 20020.80 25.9 21.4 21.2
Inner Mongolia 3264.80 27.8 3.5 3.4
Guangxi 1947.27 31.5 2.1 2.0
Chongqing 2251.95 26.7 2.4 2.4
Sichuan 3927.59 31.3 4.2 4.0
Guizhou 1048.67 16.6 1.1 1.2
Yunnan 1924.06 20.8 2.1 2.1
Tibet 196.42 8.3 0.2 0.2
Shaanxi 2285.67 31.3 2.4 2.3
Gansu 925.92 17.8 1.0 1.0
Qinghai 384.61 23.7 0.4 0.4
Ningxia 448.73 17.5 0.5 0.5
Xinjiang 1415.11 17.0 1.5 1.6
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Figure 8 GDP of some provinces/cities in 2006
Region GDP for year 2006 ('00,000,000 yuan) Compared with previous period
Guangdong 25968.55 14.10%
Shandong 21846.7 14.70%
Jiangsu 21548 14.90%
Zhejiang 15649 13.60%
Henan 12464.09 14.10%
Hebei 11613.7 13.20%
Shanghai 10296.97 12.00%
Liaoning 9357 13.80%
Sichuan 8637.8 13.30%
Beijing 7720.3 12.00%
Fujian 7501.63 12.70%
Hubei 7497 12.10%
Hunan 7493.17 12.10%
Helongjiang 6216.8 12.00%
Anhui 6141.9 12.90%
Guangxi 4801.98 13.50%
Inner Mongolia 4790 18.00%
Shanxi 4746.5 11.80%
Jiangxi 4618 12.30%
Shaanxi 4383.9 12.70%
Tianjin 4337.73 14.40%
Jilin 4249.23 15.00%
Chongqing 3486.2 11.90%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
2.1.2 Real estate
In 2006, the State intensifies effort in macro control on the real estate market. On May 17, the standing conference of the State Council puts forward six measures, including adjusting residence supply structure, strengthening control on taxation, loan and land, and stepping up construction of tenements and economy apartments. Afterward, the General Office of the State Council republishes Comments on Adjusting Apartment Supply Structure and Stabilizing Apartment Price which is jointly put forward by seven ministries & commissions such as the Ministry of Construction, deploys the intensified effort in controlling the real estate, requires the local regions, especially the urban people's governments, to include the apartment supply structure adjustment and the control on too fast rise of condo price into the responsibilities of developing economy and society. Therefore, all relevant departments launch a series of supportive documents and polices involving urban plan, land, tax, finance, price, market trade, foreign exchange and foreign capital management, impel the adjustment of apartment supply structure, supply more ordinary apartments, induce rational apartment requirements, and control the rise of condo price. The macro control of real estate is fruitful to some extent and the real estate market takes on favorable changes.
1. The real estate development investment is on the steady rise. The nationwide real estate development fulfills investment of 1938.2 billion yuan, up 21.8% over the previous period. That is lower than the fixed asset investment growth rate of the same period of the previous year, and is on a relatively low level period over these years. Geographically, the overheating of real estate investment in the east region is suppressed preliminarily. The investment growth rate in the east region in 2006 is 17.4%, lower than the average of the country.
2. The real estate development structure is improved to some extent. The measures implemented in 2006 work preliminarily, including adjustment of development and supply structure and encouraging construction of ordinary condo . The residence investment growth rate in 2006 is up to 25.3%, which is 3.5 percentage points higher than the real estate investment growth rate of the same period. Among them, the investment into economy apartments rises 32.7% as against the same period of the previous year. The trend of declining investment into economy apartments is obviously improved. In some cities, investments to medium and small condos gain greater proportions, and the housing structure is improved.
3. The condo price growth rate falls back, but the price is still on the fast rise in most cities. As measured, the growth rate of condo price in 2006 declines as against the previous year, but the price rise varies sharply between regions. The growth rate of condo price in some cities is still considerable. By contrast, the cities with faster rise of condo price include Fuzhou, Beijing, Shenzhen and Xiamen. The cities where the condo price drops as against the same period of the previous year include Changchun, Hangzhou, Jinan, and Guilin.
2.2 Energny consumption
In 2007, the growth rate of the Chinese national economy will further slow down, and the growth of demand for electric power will become steady. With the progress of the energy saving campaign, the power demand and supply will be basically balanced. Since 2006, the capacity of new electric generators has kept on increasing rapidly, and the electricity generation volume has kept on a high growth rate. The situation of stringent electricity supply nationwide will be relieved greatly.
With ongoing rise of electricity generation volumes, the situation of stringent electric supply will be obviously relieved and electricity lack will occur in less areas to lower extent. The number of provinces short of electricity will dwindle from 25 at the beginning of 2005 to 9 in January 2006, 4 in June, and 4 in September. At the peak load, the maximum electric power shortfall nationwide is approx. 13 million kw, about half of shortfall in the same period of the previous year. The count of turning off the breaker to restrict use of electricity decreases by 91.3% compared with the same period of the previous year. As an developing country, China is on a high-growth momentum in the electric power industry in the medium and long terms. In the short term, the overall demand and supply will basically keep balance and will not change the situation that the energy is short in the long run.
Figure 9 Energy consumption aggregate and its growth rate in 2002-2006
III. Industrial characteristics
3.1 Overall industry
3.1.1 Market size
Figure 10 Market size of residential central air conditioning systems in 1999 - 2006 ('00,000,000 yuan)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
The industrial trend histogram in Figure 7 shows that, the air conditioning industry keeps on the steady rise in the 8-year evolution, except for the dwindling growth rate. From a macro perspective, that is closely correlated to the economic growth in China. The investment and consumption of fixed assets directly spur the rise of consumption demand. From its inception in 1999 till 2006, the air conditioning industry develops steadily while the dominant brands change prominently. At the beginning, several brands put forward the concepts and intiate the production. But now, the market competition is cutthroat. The brands increase at the beginning, and are then tapering. In summarizing the air conditioner market in 2006, the obvious characteristics are as follows:
1. The market size of residential central air conditioning systems is still on the rise in 2006. While growing steadily, the market is flaring to both ends. On the one hand, some units replace high-end household units; on the other hand, the products with high refrigerant capacity are expanding their use in commercial sites. Quite a few enterprises itemize their products in more detail specific to the commercial sites and household sites.
2. In 2006, some manufacturers of residential central air conditioning systems increase their throughput, and aim at the international markets while meeting the need of the domestic growth, including Euramerican and southeast Asia regions. In a sense, the increase of export becomes a new growth point of the enterprise. From perspective of market proportion, the export is not a majority, but is gaining momentum.
3. In 2006, typical players of residential central air conditioning systems are centralized in China- and Japan-based enterprises. Daikin and Midea are still pacesetters, and Gree and Hisense are growing rapidly on the whole. The America-based enterprises keep steady in the Chinese market, and show no obvious growth. Instead, some enterprises such as York and McQuay show interest in export to peripheral countries. The Japan-based enterprises in China also sell products to Japan while expanding the Chinese market.
4. In 2006, the three system products of residential central air conditioning systems face different ways of development. For example, the multi-connected units grow faster than average, and are widely accepted by consumers in different regions. They are predicted to seize more market in the future. Among the water system products, the development of some units with low refrigerant capacity are restricted, but those with high refrigerant capacity are growing noticeably.
5. Looking at the residential central air conditioning systems in 2006 geographically, their growth primarily derives from east China in contrast to the multi-connected units. The enterprises pay high attention to Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the east China region, which contribute a high growth rate for many enterprises. In addition, the central region is also an expected growth point, including Wuhan and Tianjin, where the market was initiated just a few years ago. With the economic growth, the demand in the central region will also rise, and the growth rate will be higher because the base value is still low.
6. In 2006, the residential central air conditioning series encounter more competitors. Since the residential central air conditioning systems are applied to more than households, they are also applied in light-load commercial sites, which are major part of market in these years. Currently, more models are available in the market, e.g., the units with water loop heating pump and water-cooled refrigerator, which gain more market share steadily, but are not included in the statistics herein. The State is now launching some policies in favor of geothermal engery, which spurs the market development to some extent.
3.1.2 Proportion of domestic and overseas markets
Figure 11 Proportions of domestic and overseas markets of residential central air conditioning systems in 2006 ('00,000,000 yuan)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
The export of residential central air conditioning systems rises nearly 80% in 2006 as against the export volume of approx. 1 billion yuan in 2005. Obviously seen from the pie chart, the proportion of export in the entire market gains 2 percentage points in contrast to 2005. The increase of export proportion explains the attention paid by Chinese enterprises to overseas markets. Sources reveal that some enterprises primarily targeted at household users set up foreign capital departments to scrimmage into the commercial sectors. The old export-oriented brands are Midea, Haier and Gree, but more Chinese enterprises such as Aux and Chigo increase export in 2006. In addition to the residential central conditioning systems measured herein, more other products are being exported massively, and the end terminals of some large units are also exported considerably.
Geographically, the main destinations of export are south America, Australia, Europe and southeast Asia. The export of duct-type units and ceiling-mounted units account for a heavy proportion. The DC frequency-variable multi-connected units are exported in larger quantities. Since the quality certification for units are strict in the international market, the enterprises are putting greater effort into production and model design.
3.1.3 Industrial operation (as per sales volume)
Figure 12 Statistics of total sale of main residential central air conditioning systems in 2006 (as per sales volume)
Enterprise name Sales volume ('0,000 sets)
Shanghai Daikin Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 12.89
Guangdong Midea Commercial Air Conditioning Equipment Co., Ltd. 12.44
Qingdao Haier Air Conditioning Electronics Co., Ltd. 10.82
Zhuhai Gree Electrics Co., Ltd. 9.02
Trane Air Conditioner Co., Ltd. 3.36
York (Guangzhou) Air Conditioning & Refrigerating Co., Ltd. 3.13
Shenzhen McQuay Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 2.91
Shanghai Tong Hui-Carrier Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 1.58
Qingdao Hisense-Hitachi Air Conditioning System Co., Ltd. 1.43
Mitsubishi Electric Air-conditioning & Visual Systems Co., Ltd. 0.99
Tsinghua Tongfang Manual Ergonomics Co., Ltd. 0.73
LG Electronics (Tianjin) Appliance Co., Ltd. 0.68
Others 19.25
Total 79.31
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
Notes: (The same hereinafter)
3、 The unit of output measured in the above figure refers to a system, i.e., a set, instead of a device.
4、 The output measured in the table only pertains to the residential central air conditioning systems of the enterprise rather than the entire output of the enterprise.
3.1.4 Industrial operation (as per sales volume)
Figure 13 Statistics of overall sale of main residential air conditioning manufacturers in 2006 (as per turnover)
Enterprise name Turnover ('00,000,000 yuan)
Shanghai Daikin Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 36.35
Guangdong Midea Commercial Air Conditioning Equipment Co., Ltd. 20.45
Qingdao Haier Air Conditioning Electronics Co., Ltd. 18.34
Zhuhai Gree Electrics Co., Ltd. 13.01
Qingdao Hisense-Hitachi Air Conditioning System Co., Ltd. 5.52
York (Guangzhou) Air Conditioning & Refrigerating Co., Ltd. 5.3
Shenzhen McQuay Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 5.14
Trane Air Conditioner Co., Ltd. 4.86
Mitsubishi Electric Air Conditioning & Visual Equipment Co., Ltd. 2.1
Tsinghua Tongfang Manual Ergonomics Co., Ltd. 2.01
Shanghai Tong Hui-Carrier Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 1.49
LG Electronics (Tianjin) Appliance Co., Ltd. 1.2
Others 27.61
Total 143.38
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
Notes: (The same hereinafter)
The statistics in the above figure only pertain to the residential central air conditioning systems of the enterprise rather than the entire revenue of the enterprise. The statistics of the several domestically funded enterprises do not include the turnover of the air-cooled refrigerator or the large screw chillers, especially for statistics of sale of the refrigerators of Haier, Midea and Gree.
3.1.5 Competition pattern
Figure 14 Pattern of brands of residential central air conditioner market in 2006 (as per sales volume)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
Figure 15Pattern of brands of residential central air conditioner market in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
3.2 Domestic sale status
3.2.1 Market size
Figure 16 Market size of residential central air conditioning systems in 1999 - 2006 ('00,000,000 yuan)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
In 2006, the total market size of the domestic residential central air conditioning systems is up to 12.5 billion yuan. In view of the sales analysis on many enterprises and the current trend of the domestic market, the market growth in China is foreseeably upbeat till 2008.
As shown in the figure, the growth rate of domestic markets in 2006 is higher than that in 2005. That is because, reportedly, on the one hand, the sale of ceiling-mounted units of some enterprises increases; and, on the other hand, the development of small water units are verging on the unit with large refrigerant capacity, which leads to higher market scale due to higher prices of the units with larger refrigerant capacity.
On the whole, the residential air conditioning systems, especially the fr the freon systems, are increasingly acceptable to the Chinese market, and the residence itself is increasing. Reportedly, some Japan-based enterprises derive the main growth points of residential central air conditioning systems more from households such as villa and private apartments, which becomes a primary driver of sale in 2006. Therefore, it will be more favored and promoted by the enterprises in the future, and the multi-connected units will gain more prevalence.
3.2.2 Industrial operation turnover
Figure 17 Statistics of domestic sales results of main residential central air conditioning enterprises in 2006 (as per turnover)
Enterprise name Turnover ('00,000,000 yuan)
Shanghai Daikin Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 35.85
Guangdong Midea Commercial Air Conditioning Equipment Co., Ltd. 14.55
Qingdao Haier Air Conditioning Electronics Co., Ltd. 13.94
Zhuhai Gree Electrics Co., Ltd. 9.11
Qingdao Hisense-Hitachi Air Conditioning System Co., Ltd. 5.22
York (Guangzhou) Air Conditioning & Refrigerating Co., Ltd. 4.76
Trane Air Conditioner Co., Ltd. 4.7
Shenzhen McQuay Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 4.44
Mitsubishi Electric Air Conditioning & Visual Equipment Co., Ltd. 2.1
Tsinghua Tongfang Manual Ergonomics Co., Ltd. 2.01
Shanghai Tong Hui-Carrier Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 1.49
LG Electronics (Tianjin) Appliance Co., Ltd. 1.2
Others 25.51
Total 124.88
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
Notes: (The same hereinafter)
1. The statistics in the above figure only pertain to the residential central air conditioning systems of the enterprise rather than entire revenue of the enterprise. They do not include the refrigerator part or large units.
3.2.3 Competition pattern
Figure 18 Pattern of brands of residential central air conditioning systems in the domestic market in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
In view of the overall sale of the domestic market and the brand pattern, Daikin, Midea and Haier are still in the three leading places. With more optimistic market performance this year, Daikin sets up a higher objective of sale for 2007. In addition to the ssale of residential units, the growth of large units is a potential in the future. Foreseeably, an important market of Daikin in 2007 will come from household villas. The new refrigerant products targeted at such users developed by Daikin are gaining sale rapidly.
Reportedly, the annual objective of Midea for 2006 is about 1.4 billion yuan for the domestic market. Actually, that objective is outperformed. The sale of Midea primarily derives from small units, and no big breakthrough is made in the growth of large water units. Midea elevates its objective for 2007 to about 2 billion yuan after the management reshuffle, which means a rise of about 40%.
Haier accomplishes domestic sale of about 2 billion yuan in 2006. Since the cabinet-type and large water units are not included into the statistics, the place of Haier in the ranking is affected. The projected growth rate for 2007 is about 20%. Likewise, Zhuhai Gree also sets the objective for 2007 to 2 billion yuan. In addition, the objective for export is set to 1 billion yuan.
The several leading enterprises in China set the objectives so high, which reflects their upbeat outlook for the future market, and means severer competition, including scrummage for market share in the future.
As a whole, the enterprises with good performance in 2006 include: Daikin, Hisense-Hitachi, Gree, Midea and McQuay in view of their overall turnover and growth rate. In respect of product series, the product line of the enterprises is very long, especially the domestically funded enterprises such as Midea and Haier, which sell the products ranging from residential air conditioner to small central air conditioner and large centrifugal screw units. The series are as complete as international enterprises, which reflects the comprehensive strength of large enterprises.
Other brands such as Aux, Yangzi and Chigo have gained growth to some extent in both domestic and overseas markets. More Japan-based enterprises that catches eye include Sanyo, Mitsubishi Electrics, Mitsubishi Heavy Machine-Haier, Fujitsu, Panasonic, and Toshiba, which are scrimmaging into this market. Wuxi Fujitsu accomplishes sale of approx. 100 million yuan in 2006, and expands plants in 2007 to step up production of models for export.
The State is now formulating the energey efficiency standard for multi-connected units, and will launch it in 2007. In some typical national projects, the frequency-variable units and the green refrigerant products are more spotlighted. Haier and Midea win quite a few bids for the Olympics projects. In the future, the barrier for manufacturers to enter the market is forecast to be higher. With the impetus of the enterprises which are good at frequency-variable units such as Daikin, the speed of update will be faster. Reportedly, the new products of Daikin are new-refrigerant products only, with the R22 being stopped.
3.3 Status of export
3.3.1 Market size
Figure 19 Market size of residential central air conditioning systems in 2003 - 2006 ('00,000,000 yuan)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
In 2006, the export of air conditioners is emerging. The export turnover is 1.85 billion yuan in 2006, and is foreseeably up to about 4 billion yuan in 2008. Since exporting enterprises are fewer than the enterprises targeted at domestic markets, the market size will not increase substantially in the coming few years, and may go on being dominated by Midea, Gree and Haier. Other brands also take on a rising trend. The products for export are primarily multi-connected units, ceiling-mounted units and duct-type units.
When ranking the market share of residential central air conditioning enterprises, Guangdong Midea should be in the first place, Haier is also outstanding, followed by other brands such as Hisense-Hitachi, Shanghai Daikin, York and McQuay. Depending on the product characteristics, the primary market of the product is different. For example, Hisense-Hitachi has many export destinations, e.g., Japan, Taiwan, Europe and Asia. Shanghai Daikin primarily resells products to Japan, and York and McQuay are primarily targeted at Asian markets. Other domestic brands are expanding the markets of household application.
3.3.2 Turnover
Figure 20 Statistics of export of main residential central air conditioning enterprises in 2006 (as per turnover)
Enterprise name Turnover ('00,000,000 yuan)
Guangdong Midea Commercial Air Conditioning Equipment Co., Ltd. 5.9
Qingdao Haier Air Conditioning Electronics Co., Ltd. 4.4
Zhuhai Gree Electrics Co., Ltd. 3.9
Shenzhen McQuay Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 0.7
York (Guangzhou) Air Conditioning & Refrigerating Co., Ltd. 0.54
Shanghai Daikin Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 0.5
Qingdao Hisense-Hitachi Air Conditioning System Co., Ltd. 0.3
Trane Air Conditioner Co., Ltd. 0.16
Others 2.1
Total 18.5
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
3.3.3 Competition pattern
Figure 21 Pattern of brands in the market of exporting residential central air conditioning systems in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
VI. Product characteristics
4.1 General characteristics
Figure 22 Overall product structure proportion of residential central air conditioner market in 2006 (as per conveyance media - sales volume)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
Figure 23 Product structure proportion of residential central air conditioner market in 2006 (as per conveyance media - turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
4.2 Refrigerant system
4.2.1 Market size
Figure 24 Market size of refrigerant-type systems in 2003-2006 ('00,000,000 yuan)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
In 2006, the market size of the refrigerant-type residential central air conditioning systems rises massively, which takes over the market share of many water units with low refrigerant capacity to some extent. Especially on the household sites, they impact the small water units drastically. In 2006, the rise of the refrigerant-type products is also affected by export. Currently, most of the products for export are of the refrigerant type. Therefore, the market share rises quickly.
In the domestic market, apart from several domestically funded brands which promote such products, many Japan-based enterprises are dominated by such type of products. The Japan-based products are higher recognized in the Chinese household product brands, provide relatively stable quality, and accomplish good performance in the Chinese market, which drives the recognition to the consumers to some extent.
In the opion of many insiders, the rapid development of the multi-connected units and their improved acceptability to the terminals benefit from the Daikin Company. Many enterprises promote the products jointly to broaden the scope of recognition. The products of Daikin boast certain merits, and perform better than other systems on small sites of limited areas indeed. Along these years of development, the product series of the domestic manufacturers have become relatively complete.
4.2.2 Industrial operation
Figure 25 Summary of sales results of enterprises in itemized sectors of refrigerant-type systems in 2006
Enterprise name Sales volume ('0,000 sets) Turnover ('00,000,000 yuan)
Shanghai Daikin Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 11.09 33.4
Guangdong Midea Commercial Air Conditioning Equipment Co., Ltd. 8.65 15.75
Qingdao Haier Air Conditioning Electronics Co., Ltd. 7.21 12.98
Zhuhai Gree Electrics Co., Ltd. 6.62 8.9
Qingdao Hisense-Hitachi Air Conditioning System Co., Ltd. 1.24 4.97
Mitsubishi Electric Air-conditioning & Visual Equipiment Co., Ltd. 0.64 1.8
Shenzhen McQuay Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 0.25 1.34
LG Electronics (Tianjin) Appliance Co., Ltd. 0.51 1.02
Shanghai Tong Hui-Carrier Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 0.51 0.48
Trane Air Conditioner Co., Ltd. 0.18 0.4
Others 9.85 15.8
Total 46.75 96.84
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
4.2.3 Competition pattern
Figure 26 Pattern of competition of brands in the itemized sectors of refrigerant-type systems in 2006 (as per sales volume)
(Refrigerant type aggregate)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
Figure 27 Pattern of competition of brands in the itemized sectors of refrigerant-type systems in 2006 (as per turnover)
(Refrigerant type aggregate)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
As regards the general sales results of the refrigerant-type systems, Daikin has a higher position in the frequency-variable multi-connected market, and occupies nearly 40% of the market, being absolutely number one in this sector. Such a high market share maintained by Daikin is attributable to many factors. Daikin has entered in the Chinese market for ten years, with a number of salespersons of high practitioner qualifications, which lays a favorable foundation for further expansion of market. With respect to the performance of Daikin in 2006, multi-connected units are the hit product, while the modular products are bottleneced by price due to lack of advantages. In 2006, Dakin develops more products of residential central air conditioning systems, which reveals its attention to this market sector. The market share of new products in the year also increases noticeably. Geographically, the dominant market of Daikin is the east China region, which contributes an overwhelming majority of sale, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. Reportedly, the sales objectives are fulfilled and outperformed in advance in Zhejiang and Jiangsu in 2006, ending in a turnover of over 1 billion yuan. The growth rate of sale in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is also high.
Likewise, Jiangsu and Zhejiang also contribute a majority of sale growth for Midea, which takes a lead in the sale of the freon system. Other advantageous regions of Midea include Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Midea launches several new models into the market in 2006, of which the digital scroll new-generation product is highly acceptable to the market. However, as demonstrated by its performance of large central air conditioning systems, Midea is weaker than Haier and Gree currently.
In addition, by comparing the sales results of several dominant enterprises in the past three years, it is clear that the growth speed in the multi-connected market remains high. Therefore, it drives development of the industry to a great extent. The strong effort of the enterprise in promotion further makes the products more acceptable to consumers.
Undoubtedly, the multi-connected units are the most promising products currently, and may bring the strongest impact on the water unit products or the existing market share structure. Through development along these years, quite a few enterprises have now been engaged in producing such products in China. The Japan-based products perform well in model design, appearance, noise control and energy saving. Since the American users have relatively wider areas of residence, the American series of products appear rough in noise control.
4.3 Cooling- and heating water systems
4.3.1 Market size of the cooling- and heating water systems
Figure 28 Market size of cooling- and heating water systems in 2003-2006 ('00,000,000 yuan)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
The water unit market grew quickly three years ago, and by now has become a mature and steady market which grows at a relatively stable rate. In the current market, there are over 50 manufacturers of residential central air conditioning water-cooled systems, which are relatively distributed. The water-cooled units face multitudinous competitions in the market, including water refrigerator and water source heat pump. Dispite the severe competition of the residential water unit market, few enterprises can produce really good products, and fewer can apply the products in the practice. In addition to the product quality itself, their design, model selection, construction, acceptance, debugging, and aftersales services are no match of the foreign brands.
In certain small commercial premises, the air-cooled modular units are now applied often. They are the type which grows rapidly in the opinion of the manufacturer no matter whether they are evaluated by R&D and promotion of the new products or by the sales volume. The scope of the products also brings an intense impact on the small air-cooled heat pump water-chilling units.
4.3.2 Industrial operation
Figure 29 Summary of sales results of the enterprises in the itemized sectors of the cooling- and heating water systems in 2006
Enterprise name Sales volume ('0,000 sets) Turnover ('00,000,000 yuan)
York (Guangzhou) Air Conditioning & Refrigerating Co., Ltd. 1.28 3.05
Trane Air Conditioner Co., Ltd. 0.83 2.65
Shenzhen McQuay Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 0.71 2.3
Qingdao Haier Air Conditioning Electronics Co., Ltd. 0.71 1.66
Tsinghua Tongfang Manual Ergonomics Co., Ltd. 0.73 2.01
Guangdong Midea Commercial Air Conditioning Equipment Co., Ltd. 49 1.02
Zhuhai Gree Electrics Co., Ltd. 0.3 0.86
Shanghai Tong Hui-Carrier Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 0.35 0.6
Shanghai Daikin Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 0 0
LG Electronics (Tianjin) Appliance Co., Ltd. 0 0
Suzhou Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. 0 0
Qingdao Hisense-Hitachi Air Conditioning System Co., Ltd. 0 0
Others 3.8 7.65
Total 9.2 21.8
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
4.3.3 Competition pattern
Figure 30 Pattern of competition of brands in the itemized sectors of the cooling- and heating-water systems in 2006 (as per sales volume)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
Figure 31 Pattern of competition of brands in the itemized sectors of the cooling- and heating-water systems in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
The water unit market covers a wide range of product types. Currently, the products with water unit systems in the market primarily include small air-cooled heat pump unit, small water peripheral heat-pump unit and small modular unit. The applications of such products are obviously intersected. Another product is modular refrigerator, which is also a considerable market, as exemplified by the water-cooled refrigerator. This products included into the statistics herein primarily include small air-cooled heat pump water unit products and small modular water-chilling units.
The facts in 2006 reveal that the small cooling and heating water units of York and Trane shape up well, and CARRIER gains a high growth rate. The case of the modular units are basically the same as the situation of the foregoing US-based enterprises, and McQuay takes the lead. Therefore, as regards the overall revenue, the several US-based enterprises are balanced on the whole, and vary only in the market strategies and price. Among the domestic enterprises, Haier and Tsinghua-Tongfang feature the frequency-variable residential water units, which develop steadily.
To sum up, the several American brands make no big breakthrough in growth rate (within 10%), but remain in the leading positions in such markets, and make breakthrough in the sale of large air-cooled modular units. In addition, other similar products such as water refrigerator have accomplished good results in the market.
In the multitudinous water unit manufacturers, York sells the most products. From perspective of marketing, its sales regime and channel network layout are rather flexible. They set up many large community prototype projects in big cities such as Beijing. But their effort in promotion in the terminal market needs intensifying, and their liaison with the design institute and publicity of planar advertisement are primarily done for multi-connected units.
4.4 Duct-type system
4.4.1 Market size
Figure 32 Market size of duct-type systems in 2003-2006 ('00,000,000 yuan)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
The duct-type unit products are miscellaneous. The main type is the one-pulling-one split unit, including high static pressure and low static pressure types. As regards market size, the development is steady, and the trend of market is forecast to further slow down.
By analyzing the duct-type unit enterprises, it is clear that the growth of Gree is noticeable. Currently, the products of the enterprises such as York and Trane include both household and commercial split types. Such products are also promoted by many other manufacturers, including Nanjing Tianjia, and Zhejiang Guoxiang. The domestically funded enterprises feature the one-pulling-one model in this sector.
The duct-type units of the several American enterprises which seize a high market share in 2006 do not accomplish good performance either, and make no big breakthrough in this market either. On the contrary, the domestically funded enterprises outperform them in terms of residential duct-type units. Since the duct-type units are moderately priced, they are applied in large quantities. Meanwhile, such products of the enterprises account for a considerable proportion in the north America and south America markets.
4.4.2 Industrial operation
Figure 33 Summary of sales results of the enterprises in the itemized sector of the duct-type systems in 2006
Enterprise name Sales volume ('0,000 sets) Turnover ('00,000,000 yuan)
Qingdao Haier Air Conditioning Electronics Co., Ltd. 2.9 3.7
Guangdong Midea Commercial Air Conditioning Equipment Co., Ltd. 3.3 3.68
Zhuhai Gree Electrics Co., Ltd. 2.1 3.25
Shanghai Daikin Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 1.8 2.95
York (Guangzhou) Air Conditioning & Refrigerating Co., Ltd. 1.93 2.25
Trane Air Conditioner Co., Ltd. 2.35 1.81
Shenzhen McQuay Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 1.95 1.5
Qingdao Hisense-Hitachi Air Conditioning System Co., Ltd. 0.19 0.55
Shanghai Tong Hui-Carrier Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. 0.72 0.41
Mitsubishi Electric Air Conditioning & Visual Equipment Co., Ltd. 0.35 0.3
LG Electronics (Tianjin) Appliance Co., Ltd. 0.17 0.18
Others 5.6 4.16
Total 23.36 24.74
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
4.4.3 Competition pattern
Figure 34 Pattern of competition of brands in the itemized sector of duct-type systems in 2006 (as per sales volume)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
Figure 35 Pattern of competition of brands in the itemized sector of duct-type systems in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
V. Terminal Market
Figure 36 Pattern of market distribution of residential central air conditioning terminals in 2006 (as per sales volume)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
Figure 37 Market trend of residential central air conditioning terminals in 2004-2006 (as per sales volume)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
In 2006, the residential central air conditioning systems are on the steady rise, primarily in east China, north China and south China. The ten main cities monitored by our network account for a market share of nearly 56%, of which the three leading cities are Shanghai (14.8%), Beijing (8.7%) and Shenzhen (5.6%). In addition to Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou in east China also show good performance. The four cities account for a market share of 28.7%, of which the growth of the Suzhou market is the most noticeable. Moreover, Guangzhou in the south China market keeps a high proportion in addition to Shenzhen.
5.1 Shanghai
Figure 38 Layout of brands of residential central air conditioner market in Shanghai in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics:The market is large and mature in Shanghai. In 2006, the residential central air conditioner market in Shanghai still keeps a growth rate, with a total demand of about 1.85 billion yuan, which is on the steady rise as against 2005. On the whole, the residential unit consumption market of Shanghai are characterized by: (1) High acceptability of brands, high competitiveness of Japanese brands; (2) Large retail market; (3) High purchasing power. In the up-market condo, the users pay special attention to brands, and most of them choose the frequency-variable multi-connected units of Daikin.
◆ Enterprise and product performance:In Shanghai, the advantages of the multi-connected units are prominent. Especially, the frequency-variable multi-connected units prevail over the cooling-/heating-water type and the duct-type products in sale. The prevaleance of the multi-connected units in Shanghai is primarily decided by the residential and economic conditions in Shanghai in addition to the promotion of the manfuacturers. From the competition pattern of brands in 2006, we can see that the enterprises in the leading positions are Japanese or local enterprises which feature multi-connected units. The four enterprises: Daikin, Midea, Haier and Hisense-Hitachi seize seventy percent of the market. The strong brand Daikin occupies over half of the market share in 2006. Its distributors in Shanghai are expanding. In the areas covered the Shanghai branch alone, there are over 500 distributors of Daikin, of which 2 distributors accomplish turnover of over 100 million yuan each. Midea and Hisense-Hitachi do a good job in the education system projects of Shanghai. Reportedly, McQuay is affected in the Shanghai market by its frequency personnel reshuffle in the year.
5.2 Beijing
Figure 39 Layout of brands of the residential central air conditioner market in Beijing in 2006 (as turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics:The Beijing market is becoming mature, but in a much smaller size than Shanghai. The total capacity of the residential central air conditioner market in Beijing in 2006 is approx. 1087 million yuan, up approx. 17% over 2005.
The Beijing market take on its characteristics obviously. In the sale of residential unit products, the retail services are prevalent, and account for over 50% of the sale. As a political center in China, Beijing conveys policy information quickly to the enterprises in the region, and the maneuver of the governmental relationships are more effective than in other cities. The strengths of the distributors in Beijing are more distributed and weaker than those in Shanghai. They have a turnover of less than 20 million yuan and have no strong monopoly brands. They cooperate with the real estate companies, decoration companies and design institutes, which becomes a primary mode of sale. Besides, with the natural limitation in Beijing, the pervasive heating network basically meets the need of heat supply in winter in Beijing. By contrast, Beijing requires more demanding capability of refrigeration, and the objective environment there imposes higher requirements on products, where stability is the primary standard for testing the quality of the air conditioner.
◆ Enterprise and product performance:In the Beijing market, the cooling- and heating-water products seize approx. seventy percent of the market share. Next to them are multi-connected units and duct-type units. With respect to water units and duct-type units, York and McQuay come up with good results in 2006, while Daikin stays in the leading position in the refrigerant unit market. Moreover, the projects such as Olympics infrastructure give impetus to the steady rise of the residential central air conditioner market. In the Olympics premises alone, 16 users apply the units of Haier for the Olympics project in 2006, many of which are multi-connected units. The condos produce the majority demand of the residential central air conditioning systems. Both business buildings and residential communities are somewhat up-market, and are of a high taste.
5.3 Guangzhou
Figure 40 Layout of brands of the residential central air conditioner market in Guangzhou in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics: The total demand for the residential central air conditioning systems in Guangzhou in 2006 is up to 650 million yuan, slightly higher than that in 2005. Compared with other cities, Guangzhou is characterized by small shops, pro shops, pub and cafe where the air conditoners are widely applied. So the refrigerant one-pulling-one type is preferred by business users due to its price and apparance design. With the Asian Games to be held in Guangzhou in 2010, the public infrastructure will be enhanced in Guangzhou, e.g., 3-star and 5-star hotels. Such projects will be launched into use in 2008, so the demand for air conditioning systems in such projects will keep rising in 2007. However, as affected by the real estate control policies in 2007, other real estate projects will be limited to some extent.
◆ Enterprise and product performance:In Guangdong, the brands are multitudinous and the competition is cutthroat. Guangdong is near the tropical zone, so the demand for heating is not high. The Guangzhou market features the cooling-only units, including water-chilling units with a high refrigerantion capacity, which are also of the cooling-only type. In 2006. McQuay and Midea gain a soar of sale in Guangzhou. The business-oriented units of McQuay account for over 80% of its sale. The sales growth of Midea relies on its small water units. The sales results of Mitsubishi Heavy Machine-Haier gain a turnover of 50 million yuan in Guangzhou in 2006. With increase of the multi-connected units in the Guangzhou market along these years, the regional office of Hisense-Hitachi keeps on a high growth rate and gains a growth rate of over 100% reportedly. It wins the large projects in the United International Institute and the Zhuhai Huafa Century City. It intends to expand the secondary market in 2007 as a priority, set up a representative office in Zhongshan city, and seek differentiated competition of the multi-connected unit brands.
5.4 Shenzhen
Figure 41 Layout of the residential central air conditioner market in Shenzhen in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics: The growth of the Shenzhen market keeps steady. In 2006, the demand for residential central air conditioners in Shenzhen is about 695 million yuan (excluding the peripheral regions such as Dongguang), up 31% over 2005. Currently, the Shenzhen market is characterized by: (1) Severe competition, high recognition for Japanese brands; (2) Residential, governmental and up-market business premises are the primary consumer groups, while the sale in clubs in communities, department stores, entertainment sites, restaurants, offices and residence is on the rise.
◆ Like Guangzhou, the consumer market of the residential central air conditioner in Shenzhen features cooling-only units. With a high consciousness of consumption, the users prefer the refrigerant-type products. In Shenzhen, few units are of the duct type, and the multi-connected units feature the frequency-variable type. As regards the results of the enterprises in selling residential central air conditioners in 2006, Daikin stays in the first place, with a turnover of about 100 million yuan. Its sales growth point in Shenzhen relies on the household multi-connected units, which contribute about half of its turnover of multi-connected units in Shenzhen. Daikin produce few modular units. York gets a sale of 40 million yuan in Shenzhen, Carrier over 20 million, and Trane 10 million. The three domestically funded enterprises are ranked for sales results like this: Gree, Midea and Haier.
5.5 Nanjing
Figure 42 Layout of brands of the residential central air conditioner market in Nanjing in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics: The total demand for residential central air conditioning systems in Nanjing in 2006 is about 565 million yuan, up 13% over 2004. As capital of Jiangsu, Nanjiang keeps a steady growth in urban construction. The government and the non-governmental enterprises invest to a lot of projects, which drives the rise of demand for the residential central air conditioning systems.
◆ Enterprise and product performance:As an important city in east China, Nanjing features the multi-connected units due to its climate environment, which contribute the highest porportion to the sale of all models. The duct-type units have unique price advantages, which makes them more appealing to users than water system products, and puts the turnover of them into the second place. Since the market here is early developed and relatively mature, most enterprises, including Trane, McQuay and Midea endeavor to keep a steady momentum in Nanjing, and attach high importance to channel construction. They primarily develop the strength of distributors and spread into peripheral cities. In 2006, Daikin, York and McQuay take the lead with respect to turnover.
The users in Nanjing are roughly categorized into governmental department, foreign enterprise and private enterprise. Daikin targets at the high-end users of the former two, and its turnover basically derives from such high-end product market. In 2006, Daikin seizes nearly one third of the market in Nanjing. The duct-type units of York and McQuay occupy certain market shares in Nanjing. Tsinghua-Tongfang in Nanjing offers a relative favorable price due to its distributor policy.
5.6 Suzhou
Figure 43 Layout of brands of residential central air conditioning systems in Suzhou in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics:With the most outstanding growth in 2006, Suzhou offers a market size of approx. 570 million yuan for the residential central air conditioning systems in 2006, rising 50% compared with the previous year.
◆ Enterprise and product performance:As regards enterprise performance in 2006, Daikin, Midea and Haier are in the three leading places. Daikin gets a sale of over 200 million yuan in Suzhou, and occupies forty percent of the market share. Several American enterprises also come up with fast growth rates. The Suzhou regional office of York is prominent these years, and its turnover of duct-type units is outstanding. Its sales results keep on growing steadily and quickly. Trane also grows fast in the Suzhou market, and its growth rate in Suzhou even exceeds that in Hangzhou, which was its dominant source of turnover. Reportedly, Suzhou is the best source of turnover for Tica Nanjing, and keeps a steady and fast growth for Tica these years.
5.7 Hangzhou
Figure 44 Layout of brands of residential central air conditioning systems in Hangzhou in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics:Due to the good performance in the Hangzhou market, we add the monitoring on the Hangzhou market in the terminal part of this annual report. Hangzhou is in Zhejiang province, and is characterized by a strong economic foundation. Therefore, the entire market is now stabilized. Along these years, it has gained a favorable momentum of growth. The market size in 2006 is 595 million yuan. Besides, as a noticeable characteristic, the distributors are monopolizing the market in Hangzhou, and the enterprises rely on the distributors significantly. The strength and network of distributors directly affect the performance of the enterprises, e.g., Daikin, York and Trane.
◆ Enterprise and product performance:As regards the enterprise performance in the Hangzhou market, Daikin relies on the two big distributors - Hangzhou Yinghang and Hangzhou Meijia, and its frequency-variable multi-connected units occupy one third of the Hangzhou market. Other strong brands in Hangzhou include Midea, Haier, Gree, York and Trane. McQuay and Carrier are Relatively weaker in Hangzhou. Besides, Tsinghua-Tongfang features the modular units and residential water units; Nanjing Tica features modular units; Haier and Midea feature the refrigerant one-pulling-one type.
5.8 Chengdu
Figure 45 Layout of brands of residential central air conditioning systems in Chengdu in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics:As an important city for developing the central air conditioning systems in Sichuan, Chengdu account for half of the market of Sichuan. In 2006, the demand for the residential central air conditioning systems rises to approx. 310 million yuan, up 29% over 2005. The Chengdu market starts later than other markets, but grows faster. It is affected by the price factor significantly, and few domininant distributors are seen, where brand loyalty is weaker than other cities.
◆ Enterprise and product performance:The water units are little applied in the Chengdu market, which features the duct-type units and the multi-connected units. As represented by the frequency-variable multi-connected units of Daikin, the multi-connected units contribute approx. 13% of the whole market in 2006. Daikin has fostered relatively strong distributors in the Chengdu market, e.g., Chengdu Xinsuoyu. The main sellers of the duct-type units are American enterprises such as McQuay and York, and McQuay provides the highest performance-to-price ratio. In 2006, McQuay achieves a turnover of about 50 million yuan from its residential units. The domestic brands such as Gree and Haier obviously outperform Midea in the Chengdu market. Gree does a good job in north Sichuan in 2006. Moreover, Chigo sets up a product management center in Chengdu in August 2006, and its duct-type units show a good performance in Chengdu.
5.9 Wuhan
Figure 46 Layout of brands of residential central air conditioning systems in Wuhan in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics: As a market starting late, Wuhan presents huge potentialities. In 2006, the market size of residential central air conditioning systems is about 320 million yuan, up 28% over 2004. The residential central air conditioning systems in Wuhan are primarily applicable to the condos with an area of less than 120 square meters. The distributors in Wuhan are relatively weaker.
◆ Enterprise and product performance: The water units are massively required in Wuhan, and highly acceptable to the market. Along these years, the multi-connected units develop rapidly, and are primarily targeted at the users such as government, hospitals and and the financial industry. The cosiness-sensitive users usually prefer water units, and the rank-sensitive users usually prefer multi-connected units. Trane and York shape up well in Wuhan. The factory of McQuay in Wuhan boasts certain geographical advantages. The digital scroll multi-connected units of Midea demonstrate good performance in this market. Daikin is superior in the project of Chengdu telecom system.
5.10 Xi'an
Figure 47 Layout of brands of residential central air conditioning systems in Xi'an in 2006 (as per turnover)
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆ Market characteristics:In 2006, the market size of residential central air conditioning systems in Xi'an is about 365 million yuan, up 9% over 2005.
◆ Enterprise and product performance:Few large projects are underway in Xi'an, so small units grow faster than large units. As regards the product types of residential central air conditioning systems, water units are wider applied. The market is very price-sensitive. Since the products of Midea are low priced, they perform better than Gree and Haier in the turnover. By virtue of the quality advantages, Gree sells better than Haier. Haier enters Xi'an late, and is now in the carve-out stage. But its distributor channels are really good. As reported by distributors, the self-control technology of the air conditioner of Tsinghua-Tongfang is superior, but is advertised deficiently.
VI.Main Components
6.1 Scroll Compressor Market Size
Figure 48 Comparison of domestic sale trend of scroll compressors in 2002-2006 (including import)
Figure 49 Summary of production and sale of scroll compressors of enterprises in 2006
Unit: '0,000 PCS
Enterprise Project Made in China Import Sale in China
Output Sales volume of which export of which domestic sale
Copeland Quantity ('0,000 PCS) 69.1 64.4 11.4 53 9.2 62.2
Sum ('00,000,000 yuan) 7.4 6.9 1.9 5 2.6 7.6
Daikin Quantity ('0,000 PCS) 58.7 55.5 2.5 53 0 53
Sum ('00,000,000 yuan) 6.7 6.4 0.5 5.9 0 5.9
Sanyo Quantity ('0,000 PCS) 66 63.9 8 55.9 0 55.9
Sum ('00,000,000 yuan) 0 6.9 0.9 6 0 6
Hitachi Quantity ('0,000 PCS) 28.5 28 2 26 0 26
Sum ('00,000,000 yuan) 2.9 2.9 0.2 2.7 0 2.7
Danfoss Quantity ('0,000 PCS) 7.5 7.4 4.4 3 0 3
Sum ('00,000,000 yuan) 3.5 3.4 1.8 1.6 0 1.6
Bristol Quantity ('0,000 PCS) 0 0 0 0 1.6 1.6
Sum ('00,000,000 yuan) 0 0 0 0 1 1
Total Quantity ('0,000 PCS) 229.8 219.2 28.3 190.9 10.8 201.7
Sum ('00,000,000 yuan) 20.4 26.4 5.2 21.1 3.6 24.7
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
◆In 2006, the output of refrigerators from the downstream air conditioner enterprises is sufficient, and makes up for the production of refrigerators delayed by the implementation of energy-efficiency ratio. Therefore, the refrigerator market alone will require less scroll compressors than 2006. But the business air conditioner market will keep on with steady growth. Therefore, the total demand for scroll compressors in the domestic market should keep at the level of about 1.90 million, and the possibility of abrupt rise is low.
◆Now China has become a main production base of scroll compressors in the Asia Pacific region. The export will go on rising, and the total export throughout the year is predicted to exceed 350 thousand compressors.
◆However, the output is far greater than the actual demand in the industry currenly. So the situation of excessive supply still remains, and the price competition will go on.
◆Brand competition becomes severer. Guangzhou Hitachi will grow up quickly in 2007, and Dalian Sanyo will develop strongly with the support of Gree. Conversely, Emerson and Xi'an Daikin is under great pressure in growing.
◆The structure proportion of the 3HP unit will go on dwindling, and is feeseeably able to scrummage for about 200 thousand high-end products only. ◆Products evolve to large capacity types. Both single units and parallel connected units will expand the refrigeration capacity, which is a trend of the scroll compressors. The market of the parallel connected units will go on expanding in 2007.
◆The new-refrigerant and capacity-variable products will keep on with the steady growth, and it is difficult for them to expand sharply in 2007.
◆It is hard for the 5HP dual-rotor units to bring impact on the scroll compressors in 2007, but that may form a snag for 2008.
◆The manufacturers of business air conditioners will be another group of important customers of scroll compressors. Such customers attach more importance to product quality, and are not much sensitive to price. The scrummage for the three major customers, especially the scrummage for supply to Gree and Midea, will be severer. The price of supply will go on declining.
6.2 Product structure of scroll compressor
Figure 50 Product structure of scroll compressor for air conditioner in 2006 (as per fixed speed, frequency-variable, digital types)
数据来源：中华商务网
图表 51 2005年空调涡旋式压缩机产品结构（按制冷剂）
Source: http://www.chinaccm.com
6.3 List of scroll compressor supply
Figure 52 Comparison of supply to core customers of scroll compressors in China in 2005 and 2006
Enterprise name Emerson Daikin Sanyo Hitachi Danfoss Bristol Total
Gree 21.7 6.6 29.6 0.4 0 58.3
Midea 14.6 5.6 4.8 9.6 0.12 34.72
Haier 0.1 8 2 3.2 0 1.6 14.9
Chigo 0.07 0.5 6.3 6.87
Mitsubishi Heavy Machine-Haier 5.1 1.2 6.3
Daikin 5 5
Aux 0.05 1.3 1.8 0.8 0 3.95
Trane 2.8 0 0 0 0.88 3.68
McQuay 0.7 1.6 0 0.8 0 3.1
LG 2.6 0.2 2.8
Kelon 0 2.2 2.2
York 0.9 0.5 0 0.4 0.3 2.1
TCL 1.2 0.8 2
Hisense-Hitachi 1.9 1.9
Carrier 0.6 0 0.9 1.5
Panasonic 0.8 0.7 1.5
Galanz 1.3 0.1 1.4
Tica 0.2 1.2 1.4
Bright 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.4
Changhong 0 0.8 0 0.3 0 1.1
Chunlan 0.5 0.6 1.1
Hisense 0.3 0.8 1.1
Samsung 1.1 1.1
SAEC 0.92 0.92
Guoxiang 0.5 0.4 0.9
Tongfang 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9
Shinco 0.4 0 0.4
DunAn 0.3 0.3
LittleSwan 0.2 0.2
Sharp 0.1 0.1
Agent 5 5.1 3.8 1 0.2 15.1
Others 10.4 14.8 11.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 38.56
Total 62.2 53.0 55.9 26.0 3.0 1.6 201.7
VII. Forecast
Market size: With stable growth of the Chinese economy, it is foreseeable that the central air conditioner market in China will keep on growing rapidly in the coming few years. In main cities, the growth will be driven by the projects such as the Olympic Games and the world expo. In non-mainstream cities, the base is low, and the potential is high, and the corresponding air conditioner enterprises will keep growing rapidly. The trends of the products have been forecast above. On the whole, the multi-connected units will be growth points of the small central air conditioners in the future, and will come up with a turnover of over 10 billion yuan at home and abroad. The export growth will be relatively higher.
Brand characteristics: The domestic brands keep on growing steadily, and the overall growth rate of enterprises will remain high. But in local markets, some products will keep steady. The comprehensive strength of the enterprises will be reinforced. Midea, Gree and Haier put large central air conditioners as a primary source of growth in 2007. Haier sets its objective of turnover for large central air conditioners to about 600 million yuan. Midea accomplishes growth of 40% in the domestic market, and large air conditioner wil be a top priority. By contrast, the Japanese brands have single types of products, and go on featuring multi-connected units, including Hisense-Hitachi. The American enterprises still put priority to modular water units and the products of higher refrigeration capacity, and the export part will keep growing.
Product characteristics: The multi-connected units go on leading the household villa market, and will gain more market share in the future. They will be preferred by governmental purchase which attaches importance to environment protection and engergy efficiency. The water units and duct-type units will boom in the business sector to some extent, depending on the model and application site. The sales volume of the products with higher refrigeration capacity is forecast to be lifted up further. With some of the national policies being launched, some products out of the statistics herein will be applied wider, e.g., the products such as water loop heat pump units will go on rising slightly. The market share of certain products such as the one-pulling-one type will be more centralized to the domestic brands such as Gree and Haier due to low techical content.
Terminal promotion: Enterprises will adopt different promotion modes for different system applications. Meanwhile, with prevalance of the multi-connected units, the effor of promotion will be intensified to step up the recognition of the terminal users for the brand and the system product. The 4S shop will keep on increasing, and the priority will be put to developing the terminal consumers and increasing the investment to network advertisement.
Market profit: With more cutthroat competition between the participants, the enterprises set higher market objectives in order to scrimmage for the leading position of market. Therefore, the product pricing will be more flexible, and the overall profit of enterprises will face further dwindling. Especially, while the products such as multi-connected units and ceiling-mounted units are becoming mature, the room for profit becomes smaller. By contrast, the future profit will derive more from large central air conditioning units and the growth of export. |
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发表于 2007-5-27 21:53
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