Posted on March 24, 2009 at 22:17 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings and Happy Wednesday, Everyone!
With Corrective Behavior across the Markets as we continue to “digest” the Geithner Plan and other “Rhetoric” that seems to be coming our way incessantly… perhaps we can drill down for some Technical Details with the EUR/USD and the NZD/USD for some clarity with our latest round of Risk Appetite.
Our “Four Travelers”, the Yen Crosses, hold significant Corrections on an IntraDay basis and have simply followed their “Cousins”, the Major Dollar Pairs.
Interestingly enough, the Majors have tended to hold “deeper” Pullbacks than their “Yen Cousins” in this environment.
Let’s take a look at the Hourly Views of these two… so give the Captures a Click and Post-Time is 3:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-25.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/kiwi-hourly-3-25.gif
It will be interesting to see if we simply continue with Depreciation and a strengthening “Corrective” Dollar and Yen… since we know a “Common Caveat” in this type of Climate:
“The Deeper the Pullback… The Stronger The Trend…”
So let’s see if this does, indeed, hold true!… at least on a Macro-View.
Of course this begs the REAL Question… “A True Paradigm Shift?… or simply another Bear Market Rally…”
P.S. - Do not forget the “Technical Perspectives of the Majors” Report in a few hours at 7:00 GMT !
I do apologize again for yesterday’s email issue… and again… it has been resolved.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: bear market rally, channel, correction, cousins, dollar, ECB, EUR/USD, euro, Euro Zone, Europe, New Zealand, NZD/USD, paradigm, quantitative easing, siblings, Trichet
U.S. Equities Open Give Yen Travelers A Reprieve… But Not for Long
Posted on March 24, 2009 at 10:22 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone for another Update!
( My apologies for the Currency Majors Technical Perspective this morning at 7:00 GMT. Some email Uni-Code issues between myself and FXstreet prevented the Report from being received, and the issue has been resolved. )
Our Yen Travelers are taking a Reprieve in their Rallies, as they are getting low on their First leg of Frequent Flyer Miles!…;-)
With the NYSE Open a few minutes ago, we are seeing the “Corrective Retracements” that are fully expected in this Climate… considering our Crosses/Equities Correlation is back “In-Sync”for the moment.
So as we know… these Pullbacks will give us our “Inverse” Correlation with the Yen and the Dollar for some strength as of this writing.
We may see our “usual” 2nd-Hour Reversal that often occurs in the NYSE and the Dow after all the Block Orders are filled… so our Yen Crosses…( and the Majors for that matter…) may have “shallow” Retracements in the immediate-term… but of course… we do not know with certainty,be Mindful as always.
We switch to the Hourly Views of our “Travelers” and see if we can pinpoint some of these Key Dynamic Levels of Activity as we move forward.
We pull off many of the larger Levels and work within the Hourly Context for a bit more clarity for our IntraDay Friends and Colleagues out there!
Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time this morning (for me) is 15:20 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-yen-hourly-3-24-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-yen-hourly-3-24-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-yen-hourly-3-24-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/kiwi-yen-hourly-3-24-2.gif
In my personal view… I see these Pullback as “Corrective” in nature only for the “health and integrity” of these Current Trends… so the Institutional Views may simply favor a “Buying on the Dips” Mentality here.
We will see how our current Climate of “Resting” Pullback fair, and I will be back with you for an Update prior to this evening !
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Tags: Bernanke, correction, Dow Jones, equities, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, Geithner, New York, pullback, Stock
The Four Travelers: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY
Posted on March 23, 2009 at 21:50 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem1 Comment »
Greetings Everyone!
I continue on with my “Themes of Four” Idea as we move around the Markets, and since the “Base” Currencies of these four Units are literally all over the Map… I thought “Travelers” would be a fine Descriptor!
( Of course… we have other Yen Crosses, but I chose these as they are the most familiar and certainly the most Liquid in general…)
With a good 9 hours after our last Update… The Dollar and especially the Yen have surely been “Booed off the Performance Stage”, after we received Details of the U.S. Treasury’s Plan to handle the Toxic Assets situation had a few hours of Corrective Behavior to digest.
As the Dow surges 497 Points today… it brings along the Yen Crosses and most Majors right along with it… so those large “Macro-Correlations” are back in Sync for the time being.
( For our purposes here being the “Inverse” Correlation of Stronger Equities/Weaker Dollar. )
The Yen is certainly no stranger to this Correlation as well, as they are accustomed to Quantitative Easing concepts and years of a deeply weak Yen.
So… we come to another Performance of ”The Traveling Adventures of Quantitative Easing”… as our Dramatic Play travels to Central Bank Theaters throughout the world!
“Oh look at you, CVJ!… Mr. Funny-Analogy Man!… Always has to throw some allusion to Art and Culture in there….. Just get to the Captures, Picasso!…”,the CVJ Fan Club Guys say with deep sarcasm….
” Do not panic, Boys!… You guys look like you could need a bit of Culture anyway… ”
Seriously… we have very similar Price Action and Behavior on all four Units… with ascending Wedges/Triangles severely violated to the Upside, and Key Dynamic Support, Resistance, and Fibonacci Levels coming into View.
For now… we will stick with the Dailies to see the Macro-View… (although Pound Yen is the Hourly due to Key Levels activated…) and then drill down with our next Update.
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 2:50 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-yen-hourly-3-24.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-yen-hourly-3-24.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-yen-daily-3-24.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/kiwi-yen-hourly-3-24.gif
Some Corrective Behavior is surely needed with all of the Yen Crosses…including Dollar Yen itself… so be mindful of this as we move forward in the Asian Session.
I will see everyone around 7 GMT for the Currency Majors Technical Perspective, and then we will see where we are with the Crosses as well!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, Japan, NZD/JPY, Yen
Dollar and Yen Hit the Stage with Some Strength at the N.Y. Open
Posted on March 23, 2009 at 11:10 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again, Everyone !
( My apologies for the lack of our mid-Session European Update… I was working out some specifics on the new Technical Report at the beginning of the European Session…)
We continue on with the Four Siblings, and we did see some expected corrections come our way in an IntraDay basis.
Despite the additional Rhetoric on the Toxic Situation by Treasury Secretary Geithner… we were already approaching some Key Levels on “Either Side of the Fence” in these four “main” Units.
( My “little Hourly Channels” for the European Technical Report were violated all around in the immediate-term several hours back as we have moved forward from about 7:30 GMT…)
None of this should be surprising.. with the Yen Crosses leading the way in Bullish Momentum off of the Sydney Open yesterday… so when we see such smooth and strong Momentum… Corrective Price Action is expected… even if it is a bit “shallow” within our Hourly “Ranges” here….
Let’s take a look, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary, as always… and Post-Time this morning (for me) is 16:10 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-3-231.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-3-231.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-3-23.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/yen-3-231.gif
I will return this evening ( my time) as always, for tomorrow’s larger Blog entry… and be sure to be mindful of your Key Areas as we move into the “Doldrums” onto the Asian Session.
Tags: channel, dollar, dynamic, EUR/USD, euro, GBP/USD, JPY, pound, range, resistance, static, support, USD, USD/CHF, YenThe Four Siblings Begin the Week Heading North…
Posted on March 22, 2009 at 22:18 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings, and welcome to a new week, Everyone!
We find very “subtle” corrections from Friday’s Activity to be largely invalidated… with a weak Dollar and Yen continuing to be seen with Price Action.
While out on my Longer-Term Views… we still really are in these large “Ranges” of Consolidative Activity… the IntraDay Time-Cycles are showing Bullish activity and even violating some “Dynamic” Levels as of this writing.
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD are a bit more Stout than their “Other Siblings”… USD/CHF and USD/JPY.
Let’s have a look at the Hourly Captures, so give them a Click for Commentary… and Post-Time is 3:20 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-3-23.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-3-23.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cable-3-23.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/yen-3-23.gif
I will be back with you during the European Session for another Update… as the “Four Siblings” certainly appear to be geared towards Key Levels as we move forward!
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Tags: bearish, bullish, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, resistance, support, USD/CHF, USD/JPY
Corrective Behavior Begins as We Close Our Week
Posted on March 20, 2009 at 12:35 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again, Everyone!
With the risk of sounding redundant… the Corrective nature of Price Action we spoke of last evening is finally coming into view across most Units.
The Euro continues with some slight downward pressure… and our Aussie does as well… but we are still out of reach of immediate-term Retracements here.
While it is late in the “Trading Day on a Friday”… we may still be mindful of “Covering Positions” as we move along.
The FOMC provided a massive Catalyst for Institutional Views to execute Positions… and the Big Boys may choose to head home with their Rewards for the weekend!
A quick look at again at these two Units… as we wrap up the week.
Give them a Click, and I have reverted them back to essentially “Naked” Charts and simply removed former Commentary.
( We can check back with them Sunday, as always… )
Post-Time is 17:35 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-20-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-hourly-3-20-3.gif
Gaps this weekend are surely possible… as “Block Orders” may certainly be filled right when Markets re-open Sunday in the Asia-Pacific Sector.
Have a fine weekend, and I will see you Sunday, as always, for the “Sydney Open”!
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Tags: AUD/USD, consolidation, correction, EUR/USD, pullback, retracement, Sydney
We Patiently Roll Along with EUR/USD and AUD/USD
Posted on March 20, 2009 at 6:10 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone!
Once again… Consolidation rules most of our Markets on this Friday… and our Euro and Aussie are no exception.
With Quantitative Easing rolling along from the Federal Reserve… and the deep and heavy “Weight” now of falling Treasury Inflows… in my personal opinion…the massive Spending Stimulus Packages and “Big Ben” Bernanke throwing cash out of the Helicopter again… using Caution as we move forward is an understatement!
( Come to think of it… Mr. Bernanke is speaking today in my city of Phoenix at an Independent Banker’s Conference… maybe I will have to go down there and get a ride in the Helicopter!… hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
So how are the EUR/USD and AUD/USD handling this?… and how is the Euro handling its’ deeply-poor Data Points concerning Industrial Production?
Once again… we go to our old Analogy of “Strong vs. Weak”…
The “Weight” of the Federal Reserve’s actions and the weak Dollar simply make even weak EuroZone Data look “positive”… so once again, “Counter-Intuition” enters the Scenario!
Technically… Consolidation still Rules The Day as we move forward… so here are the Hourlies of both Units.
To emphasize just how deep we are into Consolidation… I even left the Aussie Capture intact from our last Post!
Commentary on the Captures, so be sure to give them a Click… and Post-Time is11:10 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-20-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-hourly-3-20-2.gif
We are seeing some corrective movement as of Post-Time… so we will keep an observant eye as we move along to our next Update!
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Tags: AUD/USD, consolidation, continuation, EUR/USD, federal reserve, Obama, quantitative easing, range, resistance, support
AUD/USD (and Euro) Look Prepared for Continued Appreciation
Posted on March 19, 2009 at 22:32 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Happy Friday to All!
We are still caught in a “Foreign Exchange Vacuum” of sorts with most Major Pairs… and even the Yen Crosses… stuck in larger Areas of Consolidative Activity!
While EUR/USD is at least giving us a Symmetrical Triangle on the Hourly as a point of reference… we are simply witnesses to Price Behavior “building and forming” various Formations, if you will.
Here is a quick Hourly View for reference… so give the Capture a Click… Post-Time is 3:30 GMT…)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-20.gif
When we see such “Resting” and Continuation… often we will begin to see “glimmers” of partial Flags and Pennants… “pieces” of Triangles and Wedges… and “messy and loose” portions of what may become Channels.
I tend to view this Behavior in a similar fashion with my own Painting work… how we begin to put components together to eventually form a complete Statement.
The Markets appear to be doing just this… gathering their Components to begin the process of Building…
A fine example of my “unusual Analogy” here is the Aussie Dollar.
Having a nice momentum-driven Appreciation in Price…the AUD/USD is beginning a pullback now… which is “classic” in its’ Activity.
On the Daily…a push through “Static” Resistance at .6850 towards our 118.0% Fib Extension was completed… as we now are in-process of a Daily Doji Candle here.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-daily-3-20.gif
The Hourly brings in more Clarity… with the “38.2’s”/Support Confluence being somewhat distant… yet probable Area for our corrective Pullback.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-hourly-3-20.gif
While most Majors are functioning in deeply similar fashions after the massive Dollar weakness we have seen… the Aussie looks to be promising in the Medium-Term.
If our Pullback comes to fruition, they probability of seeing the .7200 Handle is certainly not impossible!
( Again… this is a Mid-Term View..for a Position…if executed… would perhaps run its’ course over a few days…)
I will be back with you during the European Session, as always… and we will check in with the Aussie, and the “Four Siblings” as well… and especially see where Fiber is with that Symmetrical Triangle.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, behavior, confirmation, confluence, consolidation, EUR/USD, euro, Fibonacci, formation, Major Currency Pairs, Price, resistance, support
Consolidation Continues with the Four Siblings
Posted on March 19, 2009 at 12:27 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again to All!
We continue on in our larger “Ranges” here with the ‘main” Majors… our “Four Siblings”.
I do not have to much too add here, since we have had rather ”muted” Price Action today… and simply wait for Levels to be engaged or invalidated as we move along.
Here are the Captures of all four Units, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 17:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-19-21.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-3-19.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cable-hourly-3-19-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/yen-hourly-3-19-2.gif
As always, I will return tonight with tomorrow’s big Post to get us rolling along… and we will see where we are with the Asian Session.. and if the U.S. Equities Markets continue on… or if the Dow simply ”hovers” around 7450’s.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: consolidation, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY
EUR/USD and GBP/USD Continue On as Quantitative Easing Enters the Markets
Posted on March 19, 2009 at 7:16 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone for another Update!
Most of the Majors, do indeed, roll on… as we did meet… or continue to look for… a few Retracements areas within the last 9 hours since our previous Post.
We begin to see “normal” IntraDay Formations in this climate, as we pullback and correct with Fractal Price Behavior…. though overall… we still are in “Consolidation Mode” with most Units.
Here are the Hourly Views of Fiber and Cable, which have benefited nicely from the FOMC Rhetoric yesterday… so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 12:15 GMT.
EUR/USD continues north with a “Cluster” of the Hourly Fib Extension at 423.6% @1.3838 and the Daily 61.8% @ 1.3854 should “cap” this move and act as strong Resistance moving forward.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-19-2.gif
GBP/USD remains deeply stout on the Hourly View… and we did meet our Elipsed Retracements Area. The 127.0% Fib Extension is functioning well as of this writing as “Dynamic” Resistance.
Bullish Views will be mindful of the 1.4480’s/1.4500 Handle Areas here for major “Static” Resistance… and Bearish Views may enjoy this Area for corrections as well.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gbp-hourly-3-19-2.gif
We will see if any corrections do, indeed, take place with our next Update,as we move into the U.S. Session… although with the NYSE Open and Futures looking a bit stout… we may simply see Continuation of what we have now.
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Tags: consolidation, continuation, EU, EUR/USD, euro, pound, Queen, resistance, support, U.K., USD/GBP
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on March 18, 2009 at 21:22 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem4 Comments »
Welcome to Thursday, Everyone!
( My apologies for no Updates yesterday!… Some ISP Cable ”Grid Upgrades” in my city… also… the FXstreet Blog Servers were down for some maintenance as well… )
We give the Dollar a deep pummeling across the board with the FOMC Decision and Statement, the BoJ Rhetoric, better-than-expected CPI, and even with atrocious Unemployment out of the U.K…. The Queen still took off in the English Channel… severely beating the Dollar in their “Marathon Swim Meets”!… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
The specifics of all of this will not be visited here… as all of you have surely been privy to the Data and the Rhetoric… so straight to the Captures and Analysis as we move forward!
“That’s right, CVJ!… You talk too much!… You remind us of the little schoolgirls and all of their gossip all day long!”… Blah Blah Blah… Get on with it, Man!”…the CVJ Fan Club Guys say…
“I think you Boys need another “special Vacation”… in the FedEx Truck!”, I say… hee hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
First up to the Window is EUR/USD… with a Daily and an Hourly View.
Our Fib Extensions Variants are straight on here… and provided a fine point of “Contact” and “Dynamic” Resistance.
Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 2:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-daily-3-19.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-19.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cable-hourly-3-19.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/yen-hourly-3-19.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gold-hourly-3-19.gif
Of course… we will revisit these Units as we move through the Asian Session… and into the European Session and the London Open!
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Tags: Bank of Japan, Data, EUR/USD, Europe, federal reserve, fomc, GBP/USD, gold, United Kingdom, USD/JPY
Price Action Prepares for FOMC, CPI, BoE Minutes, BoJ, and More!
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 19:34 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings, Everyone!
A massive Data Point Day… we clock in and begin with the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision in about 3 1/2 hours or so… with Consensus widely “Priced-In” with a Hold on Interest Rates at 0.1%.
Not surprisingly… Price Action is “Muted” ahead of the Release, but weshall stay with Her since we are now into the Asian Session.
We may see some volatility despite this Sentiment… as we are at crucial Levels on USD/JPY, and still “hovering” around the 98.50 Area.
The coveted 100.00 Level is surely protected by Options Barriers… so Bullish Views need to at least breach the 99.60’s Resistance Areas to get “within range”.
In the Long-Term… we do see a probability of Price Appreciation continuing… and finally breaching the 100.00 Massive Level… ( perhaps even on to the 102.00 Handle in a few weeks. )
We Re-Post our Monthly View from quite some time back.. and keep the exact same Levels…as they are still valid on this Time-Cycle.
Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 0:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/dollar-yen-monthly-3-18.gif
Now we drill down a bit to the Daily… and finally to the Hourly.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/dollar-yen-daily-3-18.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/dollar-yen-hourly-3-18.gif
We will deal directly with the rest of the Data Points and their Releases as we head into the European Session and the next Update… as well as throughout the rest of our Day!
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http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Bank of Japan, channel, congestion, Fibonacci, interest rate, Japan, trendline, us, USD/JPY
EUR/GBP, Gold, and Crude Oil and a Longer-Term Daily View
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 12:49 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again, Everyone!
We jump right intowhat is a “favorite” Unit of mine… the Euro Pound… a Pair we have not considered in quite some time!
For obvious reasons… I have always enjoyed the low ATR and Behavior of this Pair… even with it’s Massive Break into activity last October.
I use the Pair as a strong Bellwether of Activity for both the “health” of the EU and of the U.K…. in a general way.
Also… let’s visit with Gold and Crude Oil on the Daily Views as well… and then tonight for our large Post for tomorrow… we can “drill down” with some tighter Analysis…. and also see where we are with the USD/CAD in relation to Crude and the recent OPEC activities.
Commentary is on the Captures this time around, so be sure to give them a Click…and Post-Time is 17:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-pound-daily-3-17.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gold-daily-3-171.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/oil-daily-3-171.gif
I will see you a bit earlier tonight… as it is St. Patrick’s Day after all!
My Irish mother will take the Paddle to me if I do not have a few “green” Pints of Guinness and some Corned Beef and Cabbage!… hee hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: crude oil, EUR/GBP, Europe, gold, OPEC, relationship, United Kingdom, USD/CAD
EUR/USD Remains Firm Despite Consolidative Activity
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 6:57 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello All for another Update!
We move through the European Session now, and our thoughts on the German ZEW come to fruition with a significantly better-than-expected reading of Institutional Investor Sentiment at -3.5… from a Consensus of -7.8 and a previous reading of -5.8.
The Euro remains Well-Bid in Behavior, and breaches 1.30 Resistance with ease… although a correction is in focus here.
We add a Daily Fib Variant back in to the IntraDay Hourly view, and find some Confluence Areas.
We now find a highly probable “Transitive Rollover” coming into view with the 1.2950 Area rolling from Resistance to Support.
As is deeply common with the “Three C’s”… Continuation, Consolidation, and Co-integration… we are storing and building Energy here for a potential Break…now that we have an IntraDay Symmetrical Triangle in view.
No Commentary once again on the Capture, as there is plenty of Information already in View.
( Once again… these Captures for the Blog are indicative of my “thought processes” as we “build” our Analysis and move forward… hence they can get a little “busy” with Trend lines, S & R, and Fibonacci Ratios, etc…. as I leave them on the Charts for you to see… ;-)
Give the Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 12:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-17-2.gif
As always… I will be back with another Update, as we need a check of other Units, as well as Gold and Oil!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: co-integration, consolidation, continuation, currency, economics, EUR/USD, euro, Europe, Fibonacci, Germany, resistance, support, transition, ZEW
USD Continues To Weaken With Risk Appetite…But For How Long?
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 22:09 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to Tuesday, Everyone… and Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
With Risk Appetite firmly in place… we continue to see the Dollar and the Yen sell off across the Currency markets of late.
While it appears as if some “normalcy” may be returning to the Markets… in my personal view… it is simply still an aspect of my Bear Market Rally Sentiment from last week.
Some justifications that actually appear in favor of our current Climate include the macro-concerns from China and their Inflows into U.S. Treasuries… not to mention their own Stimulus efforts… the Plan from the U.S. administration and the Toxic Assets Plan… and finally the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday.
While I do agree the “Sentiment” is in the right place… it is simply too early and deeply premature to see any real evidence… Fundamentally or even Technically… to see any real massive Shift in Paradigm.
Remember… Just because we talk about it… does not mean it is happening.
Do you recall our ”Jawboning” thoughts yesterday?…. We have some of the same Principles in Play here…
Solutions can arrive from every aspect of our Global Climate here… but we really need Action to take place and “digest” for a while… we need to see these Concepts in Action for a little bit of time to even see if any of this “Rhetoric” is valid.
I wish to stay with the Euro here…as we head into the FOMC and tomorrow with the March ZEW Data Points out of Germany. This Figure has been interesting lately… as it has consistently “improved” little by little over the past few months…. but only in terms of EXPECTATION.
This is a unique Signifier… is Confidence beginning to slightly improve?… hence having impact on the Euro?
Here are the Daily and Hourly Views of EUR/USD, so give them a Click.
No Commentary on the Captures for now… as they really are rather Self-Explanatory with the Fibonacci Areas and various Levels in Play that remain valid.
Post-Time is 3:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-daily-3-17.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-17.gif
We will drill down during the European Session Update, as always, and highlight some of the specifics as they come our way!
Tags: confidence, Data, dollar, EUR/USD, fundamental, Germany, paradigm, risk appetite, signify, technical, USDDollar and Yen Regain IntraDay Strength But Still Consolidate
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 13:54 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi Everyone!
We area bout 1 1/2 hours ahead of the NYSE Close… and we basically have “Muted and Quiet” Price Action across the board with our Currency Units.
We hear and digest rhetoric from Obama and Giethner on plans to stimulate Small Business in America as part of the Stimulus Initiatives, TIC Data, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production all come in under the radar, and we are still working with “Mixed” Sentiment moving throughout the day into evening for many of you.
Here is one more check on the Euro and Euro Yen, so give them a Click… and both appear to have more Upside Potential left on these corrective moves.
If both fail… then lower Supports may, indeed, come back into view as we move into the Asian Session.
Post-Time is almost 19:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-usd-hourly-3-16-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-jpy-hourly-3-16-3.gif
I will certainly be back with you this evening, and we will see if any of our Price Appreciation and Risk Appetite Behavior, indeed, continues on into Asia-Pacific Rim Activity!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Asia, channel, consolidation, dollar, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, intraday trading, range, resistance, small business, Stimulus Plan, support, Treasury, Yen
Consolidation Breaks on Rhetoric for the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 6:58 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again!
As we discussed in last night’s Post… we can often see “Rhetoric” becomes Market “Catalysts” just as effectively as actual Data and Statistical Releases. In fact… in my personal view … from a day-to-day perspective… “Rhetoric” effects the Markets more acutely than Data Points in many cases.
This is why do the Central Banks use it so much… with their “Signature Tool” of “Jawboning”!… hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is talking of another new “Plan” to remove Toxic Assets and wipe the slates clean from U.S. Banking Institutions with some sort of “Partnership” with Public and Private Assets.
While this is an encouraging concept… as always… we will see… as one clear “Entity” we do need to see return to the Playing Field is the whole concept of Private Equity on all levels.
Of course we can consider the above and other kinds of rhetoric as the “Catalyst” for the Risk Appetite we are currently seeing in our Euro and Euro Yen Units… although in my view … Technicals were leading us here in the first place.
Here are the Hourlies again with Commentary, so give them a Click.
We are about 9 hours after our last Post… and the “consolidation breaks” are rather clear.
Post-Time is almost 12:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-usd-hourly-3-16-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-jpy-hourly-3-16-2.gif
Our next Update will really bring these Upside Momentum activities into focus… as we will be able to see if we simply breach the strong IntraDay Resistance Areas on both Units with confidence… or depreciate back towards the equally-as-strong Support Areas!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Ben Bernanke, breakout, catalyst, consolidation, Data, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, Tim Geithner, Treasury
Data Points and Two More Cousins: EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
Posted on March 15, 2009 at 22:12 in Uncategorized by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greeting to a new week, Everyone!
We continue on this week from last weeks’ fallout of Macro-Event Risk… as the FOMC Decision is on course this week, as well as the Bank of Japan, the G20 Meeting Rhetoric, and the BoE MPC and RBA Meetings Minutes.
TIC Data at 13:00 GMT may be interesting… considering the recent Press Conference from Wen Jiabo in China, and his blatant concerns about Chinese Inflows and Assets in U.S. Treasuries.
While all of you know I am not a Fundamental Trader in terms of “Style”… I do enjoy and find it essential in my own work to be enlightened as to what is going on.
As we know… any Data Points… be they actual Release or “Rhetoric”, do affect the Long-Term Cycles of the FX World,as they give us a “Bellwether” in looking out several months concerning general ”Sentiment”.
In the Interim… we simply look to the Technicals in our Tool Box and move forward.
At the risk of annoying my “Partners”… the CVJ Fan Club Guys… I wish to visit the Euro and the Euro Yen out on my Longer-Terms Views to see where we are.
“CVJ!… We knew the IntraDay views would not last!… We knew you would break down and go to your Monthly and Weekly Views… so we have a message for you… Off with your Head!…”
They should be on TV, shouldn’t they… a real trio of characters for the stage, these guys…hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Here are the Monthly, Daily, and Hourly views of the Euro, so give them a Click.
Post-Time is 3:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-monthly-3-16.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-daily-3-16.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-16.gif
Failure in the near-term may propel a stronger Dollar to the 1.2800 area of Support, followed by 1.2760’s/50’s and the lower Channel Line.
A clean momentum push through the 1.2960’s will meet with Major Resistance at the 1.3000 Handle in which short-term Bearish Views may be favored… as well as highly probableOptions Barriers.
EUR/JPY is moving in a very similar fashion, and here are the Daily and Hourly Views.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-yen-daily-3-16.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-161.gif
A Bearish View will really only come into favor here on the Hourly if we can breach the 124.00 Handle, while Bullish Views will gain significant confidence violating the 128.00 Handle with ease.
So here we are… Continuation and Consolidaton.
A Catalyst is needed… so we will check back on these two during the European Session, as always!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: central bank, Data, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, fundamental, news, paradigm, technical
The Queen and Her Cousin Go For a Swim
Posted on March 13, 2009 at 14:00 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone for this week’s final Post!
I decided to do a “late” Post about 2 1/2 hours before the NYSE Close… and see where we are with Cable and Pound Yen.
Despite the U.S. Trade Deficit clocking in “better than expected” from -39.9B to -$36.0 B… and Michigan Sentiment coming in at 56.0 instead of 55.0… the Dollar overall is still rather “muted” and “capitulatory”.
We have simply see the Dollar aspect of Cable… and the Yen aspect of Pound Yen follow Technicals with “normal classic” corrective behaviors.
We are still in these larger Macro-Downtrends… and the Dow and S&P500 are no different.
I will say this again as I have mentioned before… in my personal view… these are all simply “Dead Cat Bounces”… “Bear Market Rallies”… and any other Label you may come up with.
In the same fashion that we could not tear down the Canadian Dollar all year a couple years back with a few days of Dollar strength… and in the same fashion we could not tear down the Carry Trades overnight in 2006/2007 with Yen strength… our current Climate is roughly the same.
These massive “Ski Slope” Downtrends will not disappear in the Foreign Exchange world… much less the Equities and Indices world with simply a few days, or even a few weeks for that matter… of strength.
Here is an Analogy I think of quite a bit:
If we are climbing the stairs…or descending the stairs… does the Banister and top or bottom half of the Stairs simply fall away?… on that “next” few steps of your feet?
Of course not.
While the possibility of a massive Paradigm Shift certainly exists… for now… it appears to simply be Macro Short-Covering to me and an idea of “too much too fast”….
On to our Title here… while both of these Units are still “Flag Potential”… at this point in the day at the end of the week, they are simply moving into quiet consolidation for the weekend.
Hence…. they both are just “swimming laps” in the English Channel back and forth… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Here are the Hourlies once again, so be sure to give them a Click… and Post-Time is 19:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gbp-usd-hourly-3-13-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gbp-jpy-hourly-3-13-3.gif
Have a fine weekend, everyone… and I will see you on Sunday, as always, for the Sydney Open!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: counter trend, Dow Jones, equity, Foreign Exchange, FX, GBP/USD/trend, indices, Standard and Poors
Appreciation Comes Though for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY
Posted on March 13, 2009 at 7:11 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings, again Everyone!
We check back in with the significant Fractal Appreciation with Her Majesty and Her favorite Cousin, Pound Yen!
As of Post-Time, we are approaching Key Levels to either Breach… or face Rejection… in the next few Hours.
While the Pound itselfis obviouslyin Play here… in my personal view… the Dollar and the Yen sides these Units are more revealing to overall Sentiment indication.
We continue to “weave” in and out of Risk Appetite and Risk Averse climates…so we will see how this continues along in our day, as we do have Data Points on the way.
Let’s get to the Hourlies, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 12:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gbp-usd-hourly-3-13-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gbp-jpy-hourly-3-13-2.gif
Now… keep in mind the Appreciation we are seeing is “Counter” to the Trends here… as we have Rallies in these larger Macro-Views!
So… use Caution as we move forward, as several of the dynamic and static Resistance Areas may “cap” Price Action.
Of course… I will return later as the Data Points become digested and see where we are heading into the weekend!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: appreciation, dollar, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, Price, Risk Appetitie, Risk Aversion, Yen
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on March 12, 2009 at 21:38 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday, Everyone!
With the current “Counter-Trend” Rallies of Price Appreciation taking place over most of our Units… a check with Her Majesty The Queen…GBP/USD… is fitting.
We have not had a visit with Her in a while… so we bring along Her cousin, GBP/JPY as well !
These two Units will give us some “relative strength” of the Dollar and Yen lately… since we sure have been “weaving in and out of” Correlative Activity this week.
On the larger Macro-Views.. the Dailies are certainly nothing new with their Uni-Directional Downtrends.
It is the Hourly Views that prove to be interesting… as the “Counter-Trend” Action is most prevalent and like today’s Bear Market Rally on the Dow… we can simply call these big “Dead Cat Bounces” in my personal view.
As we always say with large Directionality… large Retracements and Corrections are essential for the “health and integrity” of the Trends.
Here are the Captures withCommentary, so as always, give them a Click.
Post-Time is 2:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gbp-usd-daily-3-13.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gbp-usd-hourly-3-13.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gbp-jpy-daily-3-13.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gbp-jpy-hourly-3-13.gif
As always, I will return during the European Session with an Update as we move forward!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: cousin, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, pound, Yen
USD/CHF Soars on Unprecedented Central Bank Activity
Posted on March 12, 2009 at 11:35 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again, Everyone!
An Essential Lesson for you… and one of the advantages, in my case, of being a Longer-Term Trader and comfortable with that view.
Our “leaked” Interest Rate Decision came in line and was confirmed, as expected, from our last Post.
U.S. Retail Sales clock in better than expected, and couple with this… we see massive and unprecedented Intervention by the Swiss National Bank to begin their own Quantitative Easing Program.
The SNB comes in for massive Intervention buying of Bonds and Foreign Currencies…while selling off “Blocks” of the Swissy itself. This, in their, view… will help on the Deflation Front and Exports as well.
“CVJ!… Where is the Big Lesson?…. Blah Blah Blah about the Swissy!… Get on with it, Man!” …. the CVJ Guys rant.
Impatient, aren’t they… hee hee hee…http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
With the 400+-pip run on the Dollar Swiss Pair… I found myself without any Internet Activity at all for about 4 hours this morning (my time).
While I was not actively in a Position with the Pair… I certainly had other Positions in Play.
But… Was I worried?
Did I panic?
Did I call my Brokers crying out of Fear?
Not in the least.
This was simply due to Two Criteria…. the first being my “Trading Style” itself…where I break up multiple-Lot Positions and “Scale In and Out” accordingly… so I withstand “Market Noise” as part of my Style of Work anyway.
That is all well and good… but Reason #2 is the REAL KEY!… and one of the most important and essential Criteria in all of Trading:
STOP-LOSS!!!
My Risk is ALWAYSdefined before a place a Trading Position… so if I was in the Swissy… I still would not have been concerned, as my Stop-Loss was Risk-Appropriate to the Position… and a single Loss will never ever bring Collateral Damage with it to my Accounts.
OK… enough Lecturing!… hee hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Let’s check in with the Swissy and see what has transpired.
Give the Capture a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 16:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-hourly-3-12-3.gif
Of course, I will return later with the Guys for more Updates as we move along with our day!… and once again… My Apologies for the slight delay.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Bonds, central bank, currencies, dollar, interest rate, Retail Sales, risk, stop loss, Switzerland, technology, us, USD/CHF
Risk Aversion Slowly Returns for EUR/USD and USD/CHF
Posted on March 12, 2009 at 6:38 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone!
We are about an hour from the Swiss National Bank confirming the .25% bps Rate Cut… and again… despite the “mistake” of the SNB “leaking” their Decision early… is still must be confirmed.
As is the “true” case with Fundamental Data Points… Information and Calculations are always manipulated by Rhetoric, Time, and other “Tools”.
We have some Risk-Aversion entering back into the Markets with a deeply stronger Yen… especially in the Main Yen Crosses, and we see Dollar strength as well.
Let’s check in briefly with the Euro and the Swissy since our last Post and see where we are, so give the Captures a Click… and Post-Time is 11:35 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-12-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-hourly-3-12-2.gif
Now… be mindful of the Counter-Trend in the Euro… as we may simply see “shallower” Appreciation moving forward.
With U.S. Jobless Claims and Retail Sales on the way… as well as our SNB Rate Confirmation… “Muted” Price Action will be favored in the immediate near-term.
I will be back with you, of course, after the Data Points are digested… and we will see the extent of Collateral Damage either left by… or going into… the Dollar.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: channel, CHF, EUR/USD, euro, Europe, pattern, Price, range, swissy, Switzerland, USD
EUR/USD and USD/CHF Return to Correlation with Risk Appetite
Posted on March 11, 2009 at 21:37 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to Thursday!
With such deep volatility and activity all week… we check in once again with the Euro and the Swissy!
The Risk Appetite Climate has “re-coupled” them on an IntraDay basis, and we see their “Inverse” Correlation largely back intact….. and I emphasize “largely”… as it is pretty “noisy” in terms of Directionality.
In the Macro-View… we do have the Swiss National Bank’s Interest Rate Decision tomorrow… that may certainly bring some volatility to the Unit.
In about 7 hours time… the Consensus is for a .25 bps Cut from .50% to .25%, and this is, indeed… largely “Priced-In” to the Markets.
In my personal view … even a hold or more significant Cut above Consensus will not be a catastrophic Market Mover.
But why, CVJ?… Why would it not have an Impact?… What… are you a Market God now?… A Genius?… hee hee hee…” , the CVJ Fan Club Guys say with deep sarcasm.
No, Boys… I certainly am not. It is simply that the SNB “accidentally” released the Decision a day early !!!” , I say with the joy of putting the Boys in their place. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
That’s right. Early.
But… it is not “Officially” confirmed, and will not be until the SNB confirms it a few hours from now.
In any event… the .25% bps Cut is “in the cards”, as we say.
Let’s check the Captures, and here are the Hourlies of both with Commentary so give them a Click.
Post-Time tonight is 2:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-12.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-hourly-3-121.gif
( We will continue on with our Units we have been looking at all week, as I felt one large Post would simply be too cumbersome…. so my apologies there… )
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: bear, Bull, correlation, EUR/USD, interest rate, resistance, risk appetite, support, Swiss National Bank, USD/CHF
A Brief Visit with the Kiwi… The NZD/USD and the RBNZ
Posted on March 11, 2009 at 15:14 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again!
As promised… let’s have a look at the Kiwi Dollar as the Royal Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision comes in to Cut by.50 bps to 3.00%.
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is about 45 minutes before the Decision at 20:15 GMT.
( My apologies… a few minutes late with the Postand taking the Captures!…)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/kiwi-daily-3-11.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/kiwi-hourly-3-111.gif
With the 38.2& Fib Daily Downtrend Fib/.5100 Handle “loosely” holding for now… we may simply consolidate around this level for a while.
If our Uptrend resumes using the Asian Sector Open as a “Catalyst”… then we may easily see “northern” directive Price Action to the Major .5200 Handle Resistance, of which Bullish views would certainly favor.
Bearish views may favor this Area for a potential ”Stop-and-Reverse” Strategy back down to a “Congestion” Zone of the .5100 Handle.
I’ll be back tonight, as always… and we will do another big “Classic CVJ” Update… as we will review all of our Units up to this point!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: appreciation, channel, interest rate, NZD/USD, Price, Royal Bank of New ZealandAn Update for the Four Siblings
Posted on March 11, 2009 at 11:59 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again, Everyone!
Here is a quick Update on how our Four Siblings have progressed in about 12 hours since our overnight Post!
Commentary is on the Charts, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 16:55 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-11-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-hourly-3-11-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-hourly-3-11-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/yen-hourly-3-11-2.gif
We will stick with these Four tonight as well as we move into the Asian Sector, and I will return in a few hours prior to the Royal Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision… as well as a check with Crude and the Loonie, since we have had Inventory Data!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Canadian Dollar, crude oil, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Oil Inventories, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY
Crude Falls and CAD itself Rises Ahead of Inventory Strength
Posted on March 11, 2009 at 7:51 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greeting, Everyone for an “Interim” Update!
We certainly will return to the Four Siblings at the next Update… I just wanted to cover the Oil and Canadian Dollar relationship ahead of EIA Inventories Report.
We do have some “De-Coupling” with our “normal” Crude Oil and USD/CAD… as Crude has been falling on increasing levels of Supply Inventories…. and in the immediate-term over the last few hours… the Canadian Dollar itself has been strengthening with the Bear Flag formation on our Hourly View.
Let’s take a look, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary… and Post-Time is 12:50 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/oil-hourly-3-11.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/loonie-hourly-3-11.gif
Keep in mind that, as always, I have no idea where these Data Points will emerge….although with the massive Crude Imports falling to China… we still may remain in Depreciating Mode on Oil.
Always try to be mindful that these Correlations that we see between Commodities and Currencies.. Equities and Currencies… and every other kind of correlative activity is constantly changing and weaving in and out of each other!
Of course… I will be back for another Update, as we check on our “Four Siblings”… and see how these Major Units are fairing.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: correlation, crude oil, Oil Invetory, OPEC, USD/CAD
The Four Siblings: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
Posted on March 10, 2009 at 21:37 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Tuesday to All !
( A big “classic CVJ Post” for everyone… as I decided to cover the “main” Majors considering yesterday’s activity! )
We had quite a day yesterday with the rebounding “Reversal-of-Fortune” in the U.S. Equity Markets… as we digest the largest Rally of 2009!
With the Dow shooting north 379.44 points to 6926.49 at over a 4.5% Appreciation… we stabilize the early Sessions’ Risk-Appetite Climate as the Majors retrace after a clear day of Dollar weakness.
Let’s have a current look at the “Four Siblings” on an IntraDay Basis, so be sure to give the Captures a Click.
“CVJ!… You sure have been kind to us IntraDay folks lately… as we do not have to suffer through your Big Monthly and Weekly Views!” , the CVJ Fan Club Guys say with appreciation… I think…hee hee hee… ;-)
Post-Time is 2:35 GMT.
Some may view a “Straddle”-type Scenario here on the Euro… as a slice through 1.280 Resistance would be rather Bullish… and a fall through the 1.2520’s/00 Support will regain our Bearish Momentum “in concert” with the Macro-Downtrend…. for a fall to the 1.3600/1.3550 Areas.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-11.gif
The Swissy may continue to “couple and de-couple” on an IntraDay basis with the Euro… considering the heated Volatility we have had of late.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-hourly-3-11.gif
Cable is still deeply weak in the Macro-View,and Longer-Term Bullish Views are not favored in the immediate term. Bulls may look to Appreciation to the 1.3950’s Area… and Bears may look to the same to move “in concert” with the underlying Downtrend.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cable-hourly-3-11.gif
A significant Break on Dollar Yen through 97.90/98.00 Support would bring a Bearish “Risk-Averse” views back to a stronger Yen…. while cutting north through Major Resistance at the 99.60’s will take us to Parity considerations.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/yen-hourly-3-11.gif
There we have it!
A significant amount of information here… but I thought a “classic” Post would be nice!
Of course… I will be back later for Updates, and we will check in with the Loonie again as well for Crude Oil Inventories.
Please remember… these are simply my personal views here…. so consider them as such.
We all know there are an infinite number of ways to effectively Trade…
but only ONE WAYto continue Trading… and that is Defining your Risk on EVERY Position before Execution!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Bears, Bulls, dollar, Dow, equities, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NYSE, Stock, USD/CHF, USD/JPY
The Four Cousins Reach and Look for Key Levels
Posted on March 10, 2009 at 12:10 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again, Everyone!
Our five hours of Market Activity since our last Update brings us to some Key Levels and Areas in what I would personally call clear Support and Resistance Range Behavior!
Risk Appetite has continued on with a few appropriate corrections here and there Market-wide… and our “normally traditional” Dollar/Gold relationship continues to “De-Couple”… as opposed to “Coupling” where they are Inverse. ( Gold rising/Dollar Falling…)
Here are our same Captures, so give them a Click to see the various Levels we are approaching and have come off of…
Post-Time is 17:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aud-hourly-3-10-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cad-hourly-3-10-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gold-hourly-3-10-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/oil-hourly-3-10-2.gif
Tonight we will check in with an Old Friend, the Kiwi!… NZD/USD… as we have an Interest Rate Decision on the way.
We will continue on with the Four Cousins as well…considering Crude Inventories tomorrow as well!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, CAD, correlation, gold, oil, USD
The Four Cousins: AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold, and Crude Oil
Posted on March 10, 2009 at 6:38 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome Again for another Update!
After nine hours since our last visit…let’s check in with our “Two Triangle” Friends, and their Cousins!
We do have some Risk Appetite slowly entering back into the Markets today… as we often see when we have such clear and singular directional moves.
Reversals and Retracements are an essential and healthy part of all Price Action and Sentiment… surely today is no different!
The Aussie Dollar rebounds on the back of the Asian Sector movement overnight (for me), and we find our “Transitive Rollover” of Support and Resistance met as an ideal Goal @ .6400 Handle Area.
Next up if Appreciation continues for the Bulls would be strong Resistance around .6450.
Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 11:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aud-hourly-3-10.gif
The Loonie also clocks i with a Momentum-Based directional move… with the Canadian Dollar itself strengthening back towards the Topside of our Daily Triangle… but as of this Writing… we are “locked” intothe horizontal Range of the 1.2740’s and 1.3020’s.
Bullish views may favor a more significant correction here to continue “in concert” with the current Uptrend… and Bearish Views may be thinking about another Test of the 1.3000 Massive handle.
Now… in my personal view … Massive Option Barriers up here would not be out of the question at all!
Please be mindful of this moving forward.
As the CVJ Fan Club Guys would say, “Hey CVJ!… We need to try and ram the Truck through that 1.30 Brick Wall there!”… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cad-hourly-3-10.gif
How about Gold and Crude Oil?….
Here are the Daily Views of both to simply see where we have come since our Posts last week, and we will drill down for the next Update.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/gold-daily-3-10.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/oil-daily-3-10.gif
Be mindful of Big Ben and more Rhetoric coming your way, and Equities will also be an ongoing Factor considering our Risk Appetite/Risk Aversion Climate… and we will check in a bit later to see, as always, where we are progressing!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, correlation, crude oil, dollar, dynamic, gold, inversion, Options Barriers, risk appetite, Risk Aversion, static, USD/CAD
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on March 9, 2009 at 21:58 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to Tuesday, Everyone!
We begin with a check of various Correlative Units that we work with quite a bit… and considering the massive Break on the Canadian Dollar and the “building of energy” to Break our Aussie Daily Formation.
( I thought we would check in with their Gold and Crude “Cousins” as well later in the day… so we will add them to the mix…)
We introduce the Pairs with Commentary on the Captures, so be sure to give them a Click!
Post-Time tonight (for me) is 3:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aud-daily-3-10.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cad-daily-3-10.gif
We will obviously “drill down” deeper as we move along throughout the day…considering OPEC and Crude Oil, as well as the recent Depreciation in Gold!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, concert, correlation, couple, decouple, dollar, gold, oil, unwind, USD/CAD
EUR/USD, USD/CHF, and GBP/USD Begin Their Retracements
Posted on March 9, 2009 at 11:45 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Everyone, for our final Update of the Day!
Our “Three Major Friends” we have been spending some time with the last few days are beginning a “Cycle of Easing”…as we are seeing some “Basing” Activity and Retracements of Price.
Commentary on the Captures, so be sure to give them a Click!
Post-Time is 16:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-9-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-hourly-3-9.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cable-hourly-3-9.gif
Tonight… we check in with the “Commodity Pairs”… AUD/USD and USD/CAD… as Gold and Oil have made significant directional moves, and we can see how they have affected the massive Triangle Breakouts of the Aussie and Canadian Dollars.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, channel, crude, EUR/USD, Fibonacci, GBP/USD, gold, oil, resistance, retracement, support, USD/CAD, USD/CHF
EUR/USD Falls as Risk Aversion Returns to the Party
Posted on March 9, 2009 at 6:59 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings for another Update on this “Dollar” Monday!
Our Euro friend from 10 hours ago or so is still ranging and largely “behaved” in the Uptrend IntraDay Hourly Channel… as we breach it slightly as of this Writing.
Some potential “Ideas” are in the Capture Commentary, so give it a Click.
Post-Time is 12:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-9-2.gif
Please be mindful that these are simply Ideas and my “thought process out loud”… and not to be considered as a Trade Recommendation or Signal.
We will see if any of these “Areas” reveal themselves as we work through the day, and I will certainly be back with you for an Update where we toss our other two friends, Cable and the Swissy back into the fray… and see what Collateral Damage the Dollar has done there as well!
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Tags: bear, Bull, channel, downtrend, EUR/USD, euro, Risk Aversion
EUR/USD Still Heavy and Congested…But For How Long?
Posted on March 8, 2009 at 20:20 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to a new week, Everyone!
We begin the week with the “cornerstone” of the Major Units, the Euro.
While the Dollar has certainly been dominant overall the past several Sessions… are we seeing any positive Sentiment coming into the Arena to give the “deeply pressured” EUR/USD some glimmer of Hope?
So far, with the Open of the week… we are seeing moderate Appreciation here…. even though we are largely range-bound with some “noisy” Price Action.
I drew in a small Uptrend Deviation Channel here… well within our larger Macro-Daily Downtrend Channel we have had for quite some time now…
Here is the Hourly, so give it a Click… and Post-Time tonight (for me) is a bit early 1:20 GMT, so we may have a few more Updates along the way!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-9.gif
Now… we have a few larger Factors in view here when it comes to long-term Euro “health and strength”.
Having the pressure of the former Eastern Bloc countries as they “emerge” into stability is surely weighing on the EU.
One of the major Factors, in my personal view, is that most of these “outer” Countries will conduct their business in Euros and the Swiss Franc, hence adding even more “Weight” to various Obligations and Debt that is not being re-patriated.
If the EuroZone is having such marked difficulties of their own… think of the ”little guys” liker Georgia, the Baltic, Latvia, and others in trying to manage their own obligations.
Of course… we have no idea how all of this will play out in the end with certainty… but it sure does raise significant questions for the overall State of the EU to continue moving forward as a healthy and vibrant concept.
I will have some more thoughts on this later when we check in again with our next Update!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: channel, emerging economy, EU, EUR/USD, euro, Euro Zone, Policy, repatriation
NFP Clocks In And Risk-Averse Behavior Continues On…
Posted on March 6, 2009 at 11:41 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again, Everyone!
NFP clocks in today with more abysmal Readings… and posts a 651K Loss and an Unemployment Rate of 8.1%. Downward Revisions also increase for January…adding an additional 57K losses to the Data.
All of this… and we still have Macro-Dollar and Yen strength beginning to prevail.
While “Re-Positioning” weakness usually falls “In Line” with the underlying Data Point Release… we usually simply see the Macro-Trends and Sentiment resume once all of the Data gets “processed” by the Markets.
In our case today… it simply comes down to the Concept of Expectation… since we did hear “whispers” of even larger Losses… the Data came “better than expected”, in that sense.
I know… once again… a very “Counter-Intuitive” Thought… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Let’s see how the Euro, Swissy, and Cable handled it…. since initial Risk Appetite has been removed “from the Stage” for the “Star of the Show”… Risk Aversion…to step in!
Click the Captures, as usual… and Post-Time is 16:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-6-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-hourly-3-6-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cable-hourly-3-6-3.gif
Now…once again… we certainly may see some “Covering” here for the Weekend as the “Big Hands” take profit off of the Table…so be mindful of this with your active Positions.
I, as always, will see you Sunday for the Sydney Open (my time), and please have a fine and restful weekend!
Tags: Data, employment, euro, expectation, jobs, nfp, pound, Swiss, unemploymentRe-Positioning Takes Place Ahead of NFP
Posted on March 6, 2009 at 7:48 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone!
As is often the case, we have Institutional “Re-Positioning” with large Blocks of activity taking place in the overnight (for me) Asian and early London/European Trading Sessions.
Let’s go straight to the Charts of our three Major Friends here, and see the various “Formation “Breaks” that have taken Place…
Give them a Click, and Post-Time is about 45 minutes ahead of NFP at 12:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-6-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-hourly-3-6-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cable-hourly-3-6-2.gif
Obviously, I will be back with you after NFP and the rest of the late U.S. Data comes out… as we need to see how the Data Points are digested.
As all of you know… I have no use or need to work with NFP in terms of Trading opportunities or execution, as it simply is not compatible with my Trading Style and Perspective.
Be deeply vigilant here nonetheless…. there are thousands of effective ways to Trade, so adhere to your own View with consistency.
The only Commonality we all should have is managing our Risk Profile and Exposure, so make sure yours is properly in check now… and at all times.
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Tags: EUR/USD, euro, GBP/USD. USD/CHF, nfp, position, pound, swissy, trading
NFP on the Way with More Negativity… Equaling More Dollar Strength?
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 22:24 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday and NFP Day!
We close a volatile and active Data-Point heavy week with the Non-Farm Payroll Report on the state Employment in the U.S.
Not surprisingly… Consensus is negative and filled with “Bearish Sentiment looking for additional Job Losses between 500K and 800K for the month of February, and an expected rise of the Unemployment Rate from 7.6% to 7.9%, respectively.
As usual… the Key here is to see the “Numbers INSIDE the Numbers”… as the “Headline” Data is only a “Catalyst” for Price Activity.
The true health of the Employment situation can be seen in looking at the “deeper” Numbers in the various Sectorsand Categories of Data.
With the current state of Market Behavior over the last several weeks, the Data Points may be largely “irrelevant” to Price Action… as we have have plenty of “counter-intuitive” and Risk-Averse Sentiment out there…
Let’s check in with our three Majors from our previous Post, and see how our “Quiet” consolidative Action has developed.
Post-Time tonight (for me) is 3:30 GMT, and give the Captures a Click!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-6.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-hourly-3-6.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cable-hourly-3-6.gif
Some simple Technical Criteria to observe as we move through the Asian Session into London and Europe.
We will return for an Update, as always, prior to the Data Points to see where we are!
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Tags: currency, employment, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, nfp, Non-Fram Payroll, trading, unemployment, USD/CHF
Neutrality and Consolidative Quietness Begin Prior to NFP
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 11:57 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Once Again!
We conclude today’s Posts with some “Rest” throughout our Affected Units from today’s Data Points.
As always… Consolidation and Easing begins to enter the Markets as we move forward and digest what has occurred leading into what may occur tomorrow with NFP.
We can see this, perhaps, most clearly as of this Writing on the Swissy…
Here we have our Units on the Hourlies, and add the Swissy 4-Hour View… EUR/USD, USD/CHF, and GBP/USD.
Give them a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 17:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-5-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/swissy-4-hour-3-5.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-hourly-3-5-3.gif
Watch Price Action here as we continue throughout the day, as we are due for “Covering” of Positions and Institutional Profit-Taking… so remain diligent.
We will certainly be back this evening to handle tomorrow’s Post concerning NFP… with a touch of some Fundamental and Technicals to see what may come our way!
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Tags: consolidaton, EUR/USD, euro, GBP/USD, swissy, USD/CHF
BoE and ECB Clock In As Expected and their Units Fall
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 8:33 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings All!
A quick Update, as our two Friends here come to fruition on Interest Rate expectation… as well as continuance with overnight Bearish Sentiment since our last Post.
Here are the Hourlies again, so give them a Click… and Post-Time this morning (for me) is 13:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-5-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-hourly-3-5-2.gif
Be mindful of some potential near-term Retracement Reversal as we move forward… especially if the U.S. Equity Markets open higher… we are always moving and winding, so be considerate of these subtleties.
Another Update on the way with “digestion” and Time considering the other Data Points for the day and Price finding a place of “Rest” and “Equilibrium”.
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Tags: Bank of England, EUR/USD, European Central Bank, GBP/USD. Dollar, interest rate
Bearish Sentiment Becoming Evident on EUR/USD and GBP/USD
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 22:13 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Central Bank Day, Everyone!
We embark on the noted Key Interest Rate Decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England today… with Consensus clocking in at a .50 basis-point Cut for both Central Banks from 2.00% to 1.50% for the ECB…, and 1.00% to .50% for the BoE.
Now if I close my eyes… I would swear we are speaking of the Federal Reserve a couple months back… away we go!
So… with all the Risk Aversion…Fear…Uncertainty… and Collateral Damage we have seen lately with both of these Economies… where will these Cuts leave us in terms of their respective Currency Units?
Well… of course I do not know! … but I have a “highly probable” idea…
( Remember one of my very first Posts on the Blog?I said I am like Sgt. Schultz from the 1960’s American WWII comedy, Hogan’s Heroes…. his famous line was ” I know nothing… Nothing! “… ) http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
In my personal view…These Consensus Rate Cuts are already Priced-In to the Markets…hence any previous Bullish Momentum we have seen (yesterday) did not hold any Intrinsic Value to the Euro and The Queen themselves.
I attribute the Price Appreciation in the Euro Dollar and Pound Dollar to the “Dollar” side of these Units and simple Dollar weakness…. as the Inverse relationship of the Dollar to stronger U.S. Equities has been in Play.
So what do the Charts have to say right now?… Let’s have a peek.
Here are the Hourlies of both Units, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.
Post-Time tonight for me is about 3:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-5.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-hourly-3-5.gif
Please be mindful of my “Time-Cycle” of Thought here… I am speaking purely in the immediate Near-Term with Price Action if the Rate Decisions are in line with Consensus.
( Many of you know I personally hold Longer-Term Views… so it would be in my favor to see these two Units appreciate with significance after their Bearish Sentiment directionality has worked through… for a Selling-into-Strength opportunity. )
I will be back with you after the Announcements and accompanying Statements, as well as other Data Points… so we may simply see where all of the “Digestion” has taken us!
Remain Cautious… and no one ever said you have to take a Position here or at any time!
Use your Skills and adhere to your Risk Profile and Trading Style.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Bank of England, bearish, bullish, Cable, chart formation, currency, England, EUR/USD, euro, Europe, European Central Bank, Fiber, Gartley, GBP/USD, interest rate, pound, sentiment, U.K.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 12:16 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello again, Everyone!
* (My Apologies!… I posted the GBP/JPY twice!… Below is the Pound, and the corrected Post… )*
Well… nothing new to really Report since our last two Posts over the last 14 hours or so… except to report… “There is nothing new to Report.”…. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
We pick up with these two Units and have clear evidence of our “Hovering” and “Ranging” Price action that is sweeping across all Markets today.
As I mentioned earlier… when we have significant Data Points and Macro-Fundamental Events looming on the horizon… Price Action will decrease along with Volatility in most cases.
Considering active Testimony on the Hill from Tim Geithner, we simply have a slurry of Events to calm the Market Seas in the immediate Near-Term.
Here’s our two Units again to simply see where we have progressed, so give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 17:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-hourly-3-4-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-yen-hourly-3-4-2.gif
We will see you back here this evening for Tomorrow’s large Post, and what all the Activity may bring our way as we move along!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Capitol Hill, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, pound, pound yen, Tim Geithner
The GBP/JPY IntraDay Strength May Fade in the Near-Term
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 7:00 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again, Everyone!
Some brief words on the the Queen, GBP/USD,… we have not reached either side of our Scenario there from our overnight previous Post, but the Concepts do remain valid.
The 1.38’s may give Bulls an impetus to simply come back to the levels of the 1.41’s we are at as of this Post, and the longer-term Bears will patiently stand aside for new levels to accompany the Trend.
Since Her Majesty is largely asleep for now… Her cousin Pound Yen… decided for a “late night of frolicking” and appreciates back to the massive Neckline Resistance of our larger Daily Inverted Head and Shoulders Formation.
IntraDay Bears may be seeing an opportunity here, so let’s bring up the Hourly View and have a look.
Give the Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 12:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/poun-yen-hourly-3-4.gif
Of course… we do not know with certainty here where Price will go, as we may simply follow Momentum and breach our Channel and neckline and head for 1.41 Resistance there…
I do not attempt any sort of Prediction as all of you know…. but we do see some “probability” here that will be validated by your particular Trading Perspective and Style… as always!
In the Macro-View… we certainly are beginning to quiet down a bit across all Units… considering the ECB and BoE Interest Rate Decisions tomorrow… as well as plenty of Data Points and Non-Farm Payrolls for last month coming on Friday.
Use Caution as we move forward… and try not to “force any positions”!
Remember… remaining diligent and “Flat” is just as valid a Trade as any!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: consolidation, continuation, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, head and shoulders, pound, range, resistance, support, Yen
The Queen May Be Rising… A Look at GBP/USD
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 22:07 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Wednesday to All!
Considering the deep “weight” in the Markets currently with most of the Major Units… our old dear friend, Her Majesty The Queen… GBP/USD… is in a “holding pattern” and has not quite felt the pressure in the last couple of hours.
Let’s check in as we have Key Levels to “anchor” us… and may, indeed, see some highly probable Opportunity… for “Both Sides of the Fence”, as we say. ;-)
Commentary of these ideas are on the Captures, so be sure to give them a Click.
Post-Time tonight (for me) is 3:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-daily-3-4.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-daily-3-4-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-4hr-3-4.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-4hr-3-4-2.gif
We will certainly be back in a few hours as we ease into the London/European Day… so we’ll check in with Cable and see as the beloved Queen “swims around in Her English Channel” !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: bear, Bull, Cable, English Channel, GBP/USD, Her Majesty, Queen
AUD/USD and USD/CAD React and Leave the Dollar Mixed
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 11:45 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi Everyone for another Update!
Our Aussie Dollar Hourly “Double-Top” congestive Formation presents itself… and the Loonie rolls back as the BoC clips Interest Rates by .50 basis-points.
Here is the Hourly of AUD/USD and the Daily for USD/CAD to see where we are in reference to the Macro-Triangle we have been working for (what seems to be) 400 Years! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
My thought on the “Dollar Mixed” idea is the unwinding of these two Commodity Unit-Pairs to have the Aussie dominating the Dollar… and the Dollar dominating the CAD in the immediate-term of this time in Price Action.
Give the Captures a Click… and Post-Time is 16:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-hourly-3-2-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/cad-daily-3-3.gif
We will see if Bernanke’s Rhetoric really comes into play her as we move forward through the rest of our Day!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, bear, Bull, chart formation, fade, resistance, support, triangle, USD/CAD
Potential IntraDay Double-Top on the Aussie
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 5:31 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetingsfor another quick Update!
The AUD/USD maintains its Price Appreciation since our RBA Post 6 hours ago… and our Fibonacci Variants came into play nicely.
Here is the Hourly Capture again so give it a Click, and Post-Time is 10:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-hourly-3-2-2.gif
We still hold dynamic Resistance at the 61.8% / .6450’s Area.
A Double-Top may be on the way here… if we re-test this Level and do not breach it with confidence…so this will compliment a Bearish View.
The RBA still has our “Intervention” Floor pegged at the massive .6000 Level… so we may roll back down to the .6300-.6000 Areas of Support.
Bullish Views will still hold to the earlier Scenario of breaching the Resistance Area and moving north to the psychological Resistance/Round Numbers Area of .6500.
Of course… we shall see and certainly do not “know” or “predict” where Price may lead us…but these two Scenarios do provide us with some higher Probabilities.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: appreciation, AUD/USD, intraday, north, Price, RBA
AUD/USD Surfs its Way through Despite RBA Hold
Posted on March 2, 2009 at 22:47 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Greetings All!
The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains and holds Interest Rates at 3.25%…while looking to the next Meeting for potential action.
The overall Economy of Australia remains a bit “resilient” considering the slightly better-than-expected Data Points of the last couple of days… as the Consensus for a substantial Rate Cut began to diminish.
On the Hourly here… a nice appreciation over the last few hours leading up to the Decision is indicative of “Priced-In” behavior.
Commentary is on the Capture, so give it a Click… and Post-Time is 3:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-hourly-3-2.gif
I wanted to briefly cover a couple of “Scenarios” dependent on your particular view here… and as mentioned… the Macro-Climate does support a Bearish view with Risk Aversion still the Name of the Game.
I will be back for another Update as we see more digestion and any “bleedout” of Data during the London Session into Europe’s Day today!
Tags: AUD/USD, Data, interest rate, Reserve Bank of AustraliaOptimism Swept Away by Averse Behaviors and Sentiment
Posted on March 2, 2009 at 12:07 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again!
Well… nothing really new to report that you probably have not seen or heard as our day has moved along… as the Dow and S&P…as well as the global Equity Markets thrash previous levels.
In my personal view…the Equity markets will provide primary Definition for now as we move along and consider Currency “health”.
Here are the Euro and the two “main” Yen Crosses for an idea of what has occurred, and where we may go… so give the Captures a Click.
Post-Time is 17:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-hourly-3-1.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/euro-yen-hourly-3-1.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/pound-yen-4-hour-3-1.gif
We will catch up with our Aussie Dollar with the impending RBA Decision… as well as adding Cable along for the ride tomorrow.
The GBP/USD is certainly providing a Bellwether example for our Risk-Averse Climate, so we will look at “Her Majesty” in detail with tonight’s Post to get ready for Tuesday!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Cable, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, Euro Zone, Europe, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, Her Majesty, Japan, optimism, Queen, risk, Risk Aversion, USD/JPY
AUD/USD and USD/JPY Feel the Heat in the Asia-Pacific Rim
Posted on March 2, 2009 at 8:13 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again!
The “Blood in the Streets” Analogy surely fits the beginning of our week here, with the EuroZone’s lack of Policy Confidence really bleeding out from the Eastern European concerns all the way east to the Asian and Pacific Sectors.
As most of you know… I am not a Fundamentalist or and Economist… so we will not address these areas heavily.
As an artist and composer, though… my Analogy would be of the Post-War period in Painting and Music… where we have the Indeterminacy of the Music of John Cage… and the intuitive spontaneous massive Paintings of the Abstract Expressionists.
“Don’t be all High-and-Mighty Cultural with them, CVJ!… Just tell them everyone in every government is basically improvising everything with no idea of outcome… maybe they have been around the Turpentine and Oil Paint too long!”, the CVJ Fan Club Guys say…
“A fine Analogy of your own, Boys!”, I say… hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Seriously, the weight of Fear and Uncertainty is still surely in our global climate… as we continue to see an massive chasm and disconnect between what is discussed and put in place… and what actually comes into action.
A visit with the Aussie again from our last Post and a look at Dollar Yen illustrates this “directionless hovering” nicely.
Here is the AUD/USD Hourly and the USD/JPY 4-Hour Views.
Give them a Click, and Post-Time is 13:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-hourly-3-1-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/yen-4-hour-3-1.gif
I will be back later in our day for an Update after the U.S. PCE Inflationary Data Points and the rest of today’s Releases… and we will see how they “digest” in the Markets.
This will lead us into our RBA Rate Decision, and we will come “full circle” with the Aussie Dollar and see where those Triangle Formations come back into play… if at all.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Abstract Expressionism, Asia, AUD/USD, chaos, improvisation, indeterminancy, John Cage., Pacific, Risk Aversion, USD/JPY
Continued Risk Aversion Weighs on AUD/USD
Posted on March 1, 2009 at 20:56 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to a new week, Everyone!
We begin with the Sydney Open (for me)… and my thought on the final Post from Friday about Gaps came to fruition.
One of those Units opening with a Block-Fill is the Australian Dollar, and we have some Macro-Data that is continuing to “weigh down” the Aussie.
The AIG Manufacturing Index and Inflation Index numbers are used as a “Catalyst” to thrust Her out of our Weekly and Daily Triangle here… although the Ascending Trendline/Triangle Bottom seems to be supporting Her for now…
We still have some “unwinding” with Gold, considering its’ corrective behavior the last few days.
Some other thoughts here are simply the heavy weight of the Pacific Rim economies and the weak “Inflows” into the Australian economy.
We are still coiling and building energy in our Descending Triangle/Wedge Formation on the Daily View… as we were a couple weeks back on our last Aussie Post.
Despite the touch “outside” of the Triangle to “check the air”… we will have to check in tomorrow after the RBA Interest Rate Decision to see exactly where this Pair may be headed.
Overall in my personal view… I am still Bearish in the near to mid-term… but we have a large “Range” to work in here… and simply need more objective information.
Let’s tak a look and drill down…here are the Weekly, Daily, and the Hourly Views with various static and dynamic Support and Resistance Areas to consider…
Give the Captures a Click… and Post-Time is about 2:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-weekly-3-1.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-daily-3-1.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/03/aussie-hourly-3-1.gif
We will begin in this clear and simple fashion… and follow the Aussie throughout the day as we lead into tonight’s (for me) Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision.
We will also revisit our “Currency Group” from Friday’s Post to see how those 5 Units are moving along as well!
See you a bit later on… and remain cautious…
“Volatility Ahead”, as the Road Sign may say…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, coil, dollar, energy, Fibonacci, gold, Pacific Rim, Risk Aversion, triangle, weak, wedge, weight
U.S. Data and EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, and the Crosses
Posted on February 27, 2009 at 11:03 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again, Everyone for this week’s final Update!
Our Dollar (and Yen) strength overall continued to build with the release of the worse United States Gross Domestic Product Data Points in about 25 years… although this “catalyst” may have been tempered just slightly by minuscule “positive” numbers concerning “slight” ( and I emphasize slight…) Expansion in the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Let’s have a look at the USD/CAD and the EUR/USD from a couple days back, and see to what extent Dollar strength prevailed…
Here are the Hourlies of both… and then we will check in with Dollar Yen and the Yen Crosses from our earlier Post.
Commentary is on the Charts, so be sure to give them each a Click, and Post-Time is 16:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-hourly-2-27.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-hourly-2-27-2.gif
( Here is the Yen as of 18:20 GMT… I inadvertently loaded last Update’s Chart… )
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-hourly-2-27-final.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-yen-hourly-2-27-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-yen-hourly-2-27-2.gif
There we have it for this week!
Now… it will be very interesting to see where we Close later in the day…as additional taking of “Profit off of the proverbial Table” would not be surprising.
We will certainly check in on Sunday for the Sydney Open ( my time) and see where we are…
Gaps would not surprise me this weekend either…considering possible Blocks of After-Market Weekend Oder Flow.
Have a fine weekend everyone, and see you then!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: currency, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, resistance, support, USD/CAD, USD/JPY
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on February 27, 2009 at 6:00 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone for our next Update!
Our “Transitive Rollover” thought from my earlier Post does come to fruition, and can be seen in the USD/JPY… although much deeper in the Yen Crosses.
With slightly better-than-expected Data concerning Unemployment Figures, general profit-taking after significant appreciation all week, and Key levels in play… the Yen has taken a nice “Retracement Rest” in the 8 hours since out last Post.
Here is the USD/JPY back on the Hourly… where we are resting on Support…although not as deep as our 38.2% Fibonacci Confluence/Cluster…
Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 11:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-hourly-2-27-2.gif
The EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY show this activity with greater pronouncement, and let’s check the Hourlies here as well, and notice our Daily Channels are coming back into view.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-yen-hourly-2-27.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-yen-hourly-2-27.gif
We have U.S. GDP, as well as other Data Points on the way… so we will certainly check in again after the NY Open.
We need to see how the Dollar deals with it’s “fleeting Phone Call” with its’ former “Risk Aversion Brother”, the Yen… as it temporarily gets back in line with the Dollar in terms of relative strength.
( Of course… the CVJ Fan Club Guys think they just talked about Spring Training Baseball… )
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: baseball, channel, cluster, confluence, Data, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, profit, resistance, support, USD/JPY
The USD/JPY and Transitive Session Rollover
Posted on February 26, 2009 at 21:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday Everyone!
Post-Time is a bit early tonight… at 2:20 GMT… so I may cover some of what I like to call “Transitive Rollover” with the Yen Unit itself.
Concerning our “Momentum Superstar of the Week”… USD/JPY… it should be no surprise here that we are beginning a momentum-based corrective retracement here…. hence the “Transitive Rollover” term.
We see this when the Markets simply “flow” into each other, and begin corrective gestures from Session to Session.
With the complete “unwinding” of the Yen as a “Risk Aversion Unit”… the beautiful Double-Bottom “W” Formation continues along… with Parity at the massive psychological and round number Level of “100.00″ in clear sight.
In accordance with the “integrity” of this Uptrend… Fractal corrective moves are always required.
Technically, we have significantly breached our Daily Uptrend Channel, although… in my personal view…our Magenta Channel is still valid for retracement reference… so it will remain for now.
Give the Captures a Click, as always…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-daily-2-27.gif
Down on the shorter-term Hourly… these “potential” retracements levels come into view and we have a 38.2% Confluence Fibonacci Area that may come into view.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-hourly-2-27.gif
Let’s check back in during the London/European Session and see if our retracement levels actually came to fruition.
We will get back to the two “main” Yen Crosses as well… as we are seeing my “Transitive Rollover” idea there as well…so we will cover them in a few hours with the next Update!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: couple, decouple, resistance, risk appetite, Risk Aversion, rollover, support, transition, unwind, USD/JPY
EUR/USD Continues to feel Pressure Despite Weak U.S. Data Points
Posted on February 26, 2009 at 11:05 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again!
The Dollar strengthens as aRisk Aversion Catalyst once again… and this certainly is not surprising for us in a myriad of ways!
The U.S. Data Points with Durable Goods, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, and New Home Sales clock in far weaker than general Consensus, and the Dollar takes advantage to attempt resumption of overall Trends.
Without having its’ “Risk Aversion Brother”, the Yen, to pick up some of the weight… the Dollar has and will increasingly be affected in this manner… at least in the near to medium-term.
Here is our Euro friend on the Hourly…
Give It a Click, and Post-Time is 16:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-hourly-2-26.gif
I will be back later, as well, with the U.S./Asian Overlap “rollover” Session and the USD/JPY Pair.
Since this Unit appears to be one of our few “Movers” today…let’s see where we progress with it as we move along.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Data, EUR/USD, Risk Aversion
Continuation Bleeds Out to the Yen Crosses As Well…
Posted on February 26, 2009 at 7:17 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greeting again, Everyone!
Our “muted” Price Action Climate today continues to spread and “bleed out” to most Currency Units today, and this tells us…in general…we are “Re-Setting the Chessboard”, for lack of a better Analogy.
As is usually the case with large Macro -Paradigm shifts… a “wave” of Consolidation and Continuation comes over the Markets as we look for Catalysts in finding decisive directionality.
Our old friends, the Yen Crosses… in similar fashion to the Loonie and Crude Oil from our overnight Post… are no different here on the larger Views.
The Dailies of Pound Yen and Euro Yen illustrate this nicely.
While both still are in Macro-Downtrends… we are seeing some “Ranging and Basing” Areas.
( On the higher Time-Cycles, we are seeing subtle “appreciation” of Price…in which a Selling into Strength View would be appropriate in terms of these larger Downtrends. )
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 12:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-yen-daily-2-26.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-yen-daily-2-26.gif
Now… with the EUR/USD fighting the 1.2750/1.2800 Resistance Areas…, poor Data Points out of the EuroZone,and Mervyn King speaking in London… we may see a Catalyst soon with all of the U.S. Data Points to emerge.
Lately…with the Equities Markets of the last few days “loosely leading” Price Action… we shall see if any of the directional strength will be sustainable.
So… I will be back for another Update with you after the NY Open and Data Points come into play to see where we fair… and Caution is advisable here as we have all of this “building of Energy” everywhere…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: base, catalyst, consolidation, continuation, Data, equity, EUR/JPY, GBP/JOY, head and shoulders, Inverse, inversion
USD/CAD Remains Rangebound as Crude Oil is Basing…
Posted on February 25, 2009 at 21:50 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Thursday to All !
When we last had a visit with USD/CAD… we were hovering on the Weekly Uptrend Line of our Symmetrical Triangle…. and guess what???… 6 days later… we are stillhovering in the same Area!
Crude Oil maintains a “coupling Correlation” with the Canadian Dollar only in this regard… A Range-Bound directionality that is losing inertia and decreasing volatility…. ( A Scenario that Options Traders live for…).
“CVJ!… We have an idea to get the Loonie to breakout of it’s Triangle!… How about if we go to a Toronto Blue Jays Spring Training Game!!! “, the CVJ Fan Club Guys say…
“You guys will do anything to get to a Game, won’t you!”, I say… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Seriously… the Loonie is, indeed, still coiling and building energy for an inevitable Breakout of the Weekly/Daily Formation we have here.
Click for the Captures, as always… and Post-Time tonight for me is 2:50 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/cad-daily-2-26.gif
In my view… I will not approach the USD/CAD until we have a Catalyst to break this large Triangle formation…irregardless of directionality.
Of course… this is solely your choice… but for me…as I hold longer-term views here… I will find opportunity elsewhere until Price reveals itself to me…..
Now… we can analyze this to death… and actually force ourselves to see something … but in my personal view… this is an attempt in futility.
In the same fashion that we try to aspire to never ever force a Trade… we certianly should not force an “opportunity” that does not have logical and high probability.
This is one of the finest Lessons to Master in Trading.
How about Crude Oil?… any possibilities here?
Let’s pull the Daily and take a look…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/crude-daily-2-26.gif
Our April 2009 Futures Contract here is in roughly the same position as the Loonie above!
So where do we go from here?… what do we do?
We wait.
Period.
Patience… as we all know and try to work on all the time… is one of the essential KEYS of long-term success and consistency in this Industry.
While my Post to start the day is a bit “uneventful”… I hope it raises some contemplation for you and proves to be of some benefit.
So… we move onto the next Update and look elsewhere for opportunity!
Remember… As One Door Closes… Another Will Open.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: crude oil, opportunity, range, USD/CAD, volatility
Dollar still Heavy for EUR/USD with Continued Risk Aversion
Posted on February 25, 2009 at 9:33 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings!
( I apologize, Everyone!… I realized I had the Gold Capture twice… so the Euro is here and all is well…. Post-Time for the Euro Capture now is 17:35 GMT )
I apologize for my “lateness” with an Update…. but overall… not a whole lot of movement in general, which is usually the case with Speeches and Rhetoric and such, as the Markets need time to “digest” the information.
( Plus… I’m a little “distracted” with the Opening Day of Cactus League Spring Training Baseball !… hee hee…. )
Our Risk-Aversion Friend… the Dollar… is still rolling along… despite some decent Euro strength overall this week.
Remember Sunday night when I opened the Blog with the Euro having Bearish Momentum in the larger View?… I still hold my View here.
The “increased”Fractal nature of both of EUR/USD and Gold provides validity for our ranging sideways action on the IntraDay Level..
The “stairstepping” nature… the building of “baby Flags and Pennants” and the like with Price Action defines this type of “Climate”.
Let’s continue with the Hourly View we have been with all week, and also check on Gold.
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 14:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-00000.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/gold-hourly-2-25-2.gif
Next up with our “Theme” is Crude Oil and our Canadian Dollar from last week… we can check in after the Oil Inventory Report and see where the Loonie has been since our visit last Friday, as we wish to see the “Dollar Side of the Equation”… and the CAD” Side as well for Crude….
Tags: EUR/USD, Fractal, risk, Risk AversionEUR/USD Holds The Line While Gold Corrects
Posted on February 24, 2009 at 21:40 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings for Mid-Week Everyone!
As we usually see with “natural” Market behavior… we are seeing some “resting”…”continuation”…”consolidation”.. and every other descriptor we can think of after we see such stout Momentum-driven Directionality!
Our “Risk-Averse” Friend, the Dollar, is handling the job just fine!… now that his “Partner-in Crime”, the Yen… has broken away for another position as a Speed Bump…. hee hee hee….http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
A unique situation with a variety of factors with USD/JPY bring us “counter-intuitive” Price Action… as the Dollar continues to dominate its’ “Old Friend”.
In keeping with our “Theme” this week… the Dollar aspects of the overall Picture are resting on some Commentary of Ben Bernanke in the Long-Term, and conflict with this comes the absolutely worse Consumer Confidence on record… and “same old, same old” News on the Case/Shiller Housing Index.
“So what’s the story then, CVJ?… Dollar Yen and the Dollar itself continues to hold its’ strength?… even with all that bad Data?” , the CVJ Fan Club Guys ponder…
“Wow!, I say… “You three Market Misfits are actually asking me something constructive? … I am shocked… SHOCKED, I say!”
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Seriously… we know that overall Fundamental factors are still being largely ignored… and our lack of any “real normal” Correlations simply are non-existent.
In my personal view… we are still really dealing with a Paradigm Shift in Sentiment and Price Action, as I have been referring to the past few Posts.
Here are the Hourly Views of both Euro and Gold… so give the Captures a Click… and Post-Time tonight is about 2:40 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-hourly-2-25.gif
Gold corrected a good $35.00 yesterday finding Support around $961.00.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/gold-hourly-2-25.gif
We will certainly revisit these two… and check on Dollar Yen for the next Post.
Later… we will add the Yen Crosses and Crude Oil into the fray in keeping with our “Theme” this week.
We will see if Obama’s rhetoric shows itself in any fashion or thoughts in the Markets as we move through the evening.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: baseball, channel, currency, EUR/USD, gold, markets, retracement, Spring training, strategy, unit, USD/JPY, Yen risk aversion
U.S. Consumer Cofidence Falls and the Yen Continues Falling
Posted on February 24, 2009 at 11:09 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi All !
Our final Update of the day brings us with no real surprises here…
U.S. Consumer Confidence clocks in with negative Sentiment at 25.0…clearly below Consensus…and Big Ben up on the Hill trying to put it all together!
“Woohoo!… We are saved now!” ,the CVJ Guys say…
No response from me here…so let’s move on with our Update, shall we! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Another look at Dollar Yen really says it all here on the Hourly…
While we have breached significant levels… a correction may be looming on the horizon, simply due to such a quick Bullish Momentum drive.
Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 16.00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-hourly-2-24-3.gif
Euro, on the other hand, is now into a continuation/consolidation Mode after a nice Reversal off it’s recent Rally… and is ranging between the lower 1.27’s-1.28’s Areas.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-hourly-2-24.gif
Gold…. is in even more of a Consolidation Mode… as it continues with plenty of “Safe-Haven” Inflows overall.
We do have some Price correction taking place as of this writing… but this in no way invalidates the Appreciation we have seen of late… in my personal view.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/gold-daily-2-241.gif
Not too much Commentary for this pre-London/European Close and Bernanke on the Hill… as in these cases… we often see “muted” activity until the “Rhetoric” gets digested…. or simply ignored.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
I will be back with you this evening, and we will see where we have progressed as we move into the Asian Session later in the day!
Tags: continuation, correlation, EUR/USD, euro, gold, Risk Aversion, safe haven, USD/JPY
USD/JPY Breaks Hourly Pennant as Yen Continues to Unwind
Posted on February 24, 2009 at 5:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings !
Our “Turning of the Tide” does, indeed, takes place coming off of our last Post about 10 hours ago!
The Dollar Yen rolls on and breaks the Hourly Pennant north, breaching Major Resistance on it’s way to the 96.00 Handle.
The Yen Crosses are actually “directionally correlated” now with Dollar Yen… as the Yen itself continues to unwind, and brings us Hourly Double-Top formations….and with Yen weakness… these may simply may blow through resembling fractal Bull Flags.
The Yen unwinding from Risk Aversion and “Safe-Haven” Status is significant here… and when we begin to see these subtle changes in long-term correlations…a Paradigm Shift is upon us.
Translation: There is Blood In The Water… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Gold simply continues to consolidate… remember… it has to “digest” all of it’s Safe-Haven Nutrients as the Yen flows into it, the Dollar, and literally everything else on the kitchen table!
Here is our Daily and Hourly View of USD/JPY… Give them a Click, and Post-Time is 10:20 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-daily-2-24-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-hourly-2-24-2.gif
Observe Price Action here as we are “caught” in this Range… so if your view is Bearish… you may see an opportunity if we get to .9600 to “Fade” the Level.
If you are Bullish… you will wait for the exact “Fade” above and observe the Correcton from there.
With the unwinding of the Yen… there is no need to chase this Trade… or any trade for that matter!
Remember to hold your Patience here, and as I always say…
Price will lead You to where It wants you to be.
Let’s pull our Euro and Gold back into the mix for the next Update, in keeping with our “Week-Long Theme” here… considering the Euro ignored atrocious IFO Data Points and continued its’ Appreciation.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Bears, Bulls, chart patterns, correlation, decouple, euro, flag, gold, pennant, unwind, Yen
The Yen Pulls Back as the Dollar Marches On…
Posted on February 23, 2009 at 21:45 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Tuesday Everyone!
Well… the Dow falls about 3.4% as well as the S&P 500… levels we have not seen in the Indices since around 1997 on the back of all of this Macro-Economic turmoil and uncertainty.
While the Japanese Prime Minister clocks in for a visit with President Obama, his beloved Currency continues to weaken in this latest Battle with it’s Risk-Averse Brother, the Dollar.
The Yen Crosses have resumed their normal course of “Risk-Averse” Price Action to the downside as well… with Yen Strength for the last few hours… indicative of clear Reversals of Risk Appetite that we saw all day Monday.
The Dollar Yen “Master” here is at very interesting levels, and while in most cases… the “Master” descriptor is accurate.
The USD/JPY will usually “lead” its’ own Crosses and correlate nicely… EXCEPT in period of Risk Aversion like we have spoke of for months.
What is significant is the Daily Double-Bottom on Dollar Yen… and this Momentum was able to “bleed out” into its’ Sister Crosses… Pound Yen, Euro Yen, etc.
” Yes Yes, CVJ!… We know already!… The whole “Counter-Intuitive” thing!.. the whole “Strong vs. Stronger” idea with the Dollar and the Yen…. We get it, Man!… We’re trying to get ready for Spring Training Baseball right here in Phoenix, and cannot be bothered with all of these details!”, the CVJ Fan Club Guys say with indignation.
“Relax, Guys!… Plenty of time for a few Games soon!”… hee hee hee…. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Seriously… First Things First, as always… Let’s see where we are with the Dollar Yen Unit.
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time tonight (for me) is 2:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-monthly-2-24.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-daily-2-24.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/yen-hourly-2-24.gif
Now… as of my Post-Time as we usually see each evening … we have a “Turning of the Tide” as they say… with Corrections resolving and Directionality continuing again… So our Asian/European Session Update will “Tell the Tale” here…..
We have some interesting criteria to work with here, so let’s check back later, as always, and see where we are!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: baseball, currency, dollar, interest rate, Japan, Phoenix, risk appetite, Risk Aversion, trading, Treasury, USD/JPY, Yen
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on February 23, 2009 at 11:38 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone for another Update!
Our friend, Euro, continues to pullback with Dollar Strength (despite Yen weakness…more on that later)…as the ”Pretty Metal Lady”, Gold, consolidates in about an $8.00 Range or so,for a little “rest”.
Euro is ready to hit, bounce, or simply clear our Support Area of 1.2720 as seen on our Hourly View.
Give the Captures a Click, and we are at the London/European Close at 16:36 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-hourly-2-23-3.gif
Gold, here on the Hourly now… is resting a bit as mentioned… with our “Resistance Channel Line” functioning in a dynamic fashion… let’s see if it will continue here to the Upside with increased Money Supplies… the Yen falling out of “Safe-Haven” Status and Inflowing into Gold…amongst other Asset Classes.
( The U.S.Treasury issue with Japan’s holdings is a story in its’ own right…but let’s stick with the Technicals here for the most part… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/gold-hourly-2-23-3.gif
Now…for tomorrow let’s tackle the whole Yen issue, as we do have another example here of “decoupling”… our Disconnect… with the Yen weakening despite Dollar strength today… so our “Two Best Friends in the Risk Aversion” Movie seem to be parting ways !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: dollar, EUR/USD, euro, gold, risk, Treasury, Yen
Bearish EUR/USD Continues as Gold Corrects with $ Strength
Posted on February 23, 2009 at 6:19 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi Everyone!
Our Update gives us a 9-hour jump from our previous Post, so let’s check in on our “Correlation Theme” Ideas for Euro, Gold, and the Dollar.
EUR/USD does, indeed, keep up it’s bearish momentum and falls back into our larger Daily Channel”.
Here is the IntraDay Hourly View…
Give the Captures a Click as always… and Post-Time is 11:20 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-hourly-2-23-2.gif
Now… our Gold/Dollar Marriage appears “subdued”… as we have Dollar strength in the near-term… with Gold weakness in the near-term, as can be seen on the Gold Views below.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/gold-daily-2-23.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/gold-hourly-2-23.gif
“Ideally”… Gold and the Euro should run with high correlation… and while we appear to be doing so these last few hours… we just may see Gold continue on as long as this whole Institutional situation with the Banks, Nationalization, etc. continues along.
Despite what we are seeing in the near-term of the last few days… Yen weakness… Gold rolling… Crude picking itself up off the floor a little bit….. Risk Aversion is still very much in the air with the “Sentiment” of Ineffectiveness of Global Policy.
Let’s check in after the NYSE Open…and see where Equities come into the picture and jockey our Friends around a bit…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: dollar, equity, EUR/USD, global, gold, Policy, Risk Aversion
So what REALLY is going on with King Euro?
Posted on February 22, 2009 at 21:38 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome back for another week !
The EUR/USD in the near-term is clocking in with Bearish Momentum and, perhaps, even moreBearish “Sentiment” in the Macro-Term.
Technically… the “heavy weight” of all of its’ Member Countries… its’ uncoupling and bitter divorce with Gold… plus being stabbed in the back by Gold and its’ new marriage with the U.S. Dollar surely rivals the Academy Awards Show of last night!
“CVJ!… You call those Technicals?… What… Is that your new version of Market Analysis?… Metaphor and Word-Play?”,the CVJ Fan Club Guys rant….
“OK OK, Guys… just trying to be a little festive!”….http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
The title of today’s Post comes from another reflective weekend in which I was trying to “Connect the Dots”, as they say… and also thinking about some thoughts I had months and months ago.
Most of my friends here at the Blog know of my music and art background… and I was thinking of Mozart this weekend as I was doing some composing.
( I am working on an Opera that I began back in 1991… abandoned, revised, abandoned, etc….a story for another time… )
My thought of Mozart concerned the idea of “Disconnect”.
Here we have a child prodigy of music with such innate talent and perfection… certainly one of the finest Contributors to Humanity in my personal view… yet this exact talent and perfection was often subservient to the Aristocracy of his Time.
Talk about a Disconnect!…
I would like to spend the week going over these “Disconnections” with the Euro Dollar, Dollar Strength, and the relation of Gold to both of these Units.
( I will vacillate throughout the week between these Three… but of course… update with any aberrations that arise in other Markets as well…. )
Concerning the EUR/USD Unit… I recall a conversation with a friend we were having about Currency movement throughout 2008… after all… this was about March of last year.
While we were not coming to any real conclusions ( a perilous journey for a Trader, as always…) … we were simply contemplating a specific and massive Paradigm shift with the Euro itself.
So… let’s start with some relatively “Naked” Charts and drill down from a Monthly, to a Daily, to an Hourly.
We will stick, then, with our Hourly for Updates as the day moves along…
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time Sunday evening (for me) is 2:35 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-monthly-2-23.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-daily-2-23.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-hourly-2-231.gif
We will check back with some Updates to see if our immediate-term Bullishness plays out with confidence!
Tags: analysis, dollar, economy, EU, EUR/USD, euro, gold, Mozart, music, opera, progidy, risk appetite, Risk Aversion
U.S. CPI Slightly Positive and Boosts the Dollar
Posted on February 20, 2009 at 10:14 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Again!
Even though we “traditionally” see U.S. Data Points have more of a marked impact on the EUR/USD Unit… we will stay with our Dollar Canadian for one more Update.
USD/CAD did, indeed, breakthrough both our little “minor” Trendline Resistance and the larger Weekly Triangle Resistance.
What we certainly may see here is a “Double Top” Formation on the Hourly if we can make it with confidence to the next Major Resistance Area of the 1.2670’s.
With our March Contract for Crude Oil expiring today… we appear to have used the “positive” CPI Data as a catalystto fall back into our $37.50 Area… and we may simply see muted activity for the remainder of the Session as we hover around this level.
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 15:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-hourly-2-20-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/oil-hourly-2-20-3.gif
Back on Sunday with you (for me what will be) the Sydney Open… and everyone have a fine weekend!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: April Crude Futures, Canadian Dollar, consolidation, continuation, crude oil, dollar, Expiration, United States Dollar, USD/CADUSD/CAD Falls and Crude Rises on Conflicting CAD CPI
Posted on February 20, 2009 at 7:30 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again Everyone, and time for another Update with our two “Inverse” Friends!
Canadian Consumer Price Index CORE Data Points come in slightly negative both Month-over-Month and Year-over-Year, respectively, at -.04% and 1.9%… while conflicting and “neutralising” Numbers for total CP come in at -0.3% M.o.M. and 1.1% Y.o.Y.
Let’s check in with our Hourlies…as both did violate some of our Channel Levels and trendlines from the Asian Session into the London Session.
Give the Captures a Click form Commentary, and Post-Time is about 12:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-hourly-2-20-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/oil-hourly-2-20-2.gif
We will check on these two one final time for the week, when we have the U.S. CPI Data out on a while!
See you then! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Canada, channel, Consumer Price Index, Core, CPI, crude oil, energy, trendline
Crude and CAD Wrestle and Settle into Consolidation
Posted on February 19, 2009 at 22:03 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday Everyone!
Well… the sideways consolidative activity of these two “overall”… ( meaning out on the Weekly and Daily Views)…really is not surprising.
With the consistent coiling and building of energy in both Units in the Hourly Views… we may expect an inevitable Break sometime soon… irregardless of direction.
In the Macro-View… Crude Sentiment is largely Bearish as Inventory Consumption is falling by 1.2-2 million Barrels a day… and technically,as long as the Major Resistance on $50.50 or so holds and locks us in to these little Support-and-Resistance ”Ranges” we have.
The Loonie itself looks highly probable to work on maintaining its’ strength…despite the possible Rate Cut on the way… hence… the Pair itself will fall and depreciate.
Let’s get to our Views again, and Commentary is annotated as usual.
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time tonight (for me) is 3:05 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-hourly-2-20.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/oil-hourly-2-20.gif
We will continue with more Updates throughout our day to see if any of our levels and dynamic areas remain respected, or do, indeed, become violated.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: breakout, channel, consolidation, Contract, crude oil, downside, Futures, resistance, support, trendline, USD/CAD
USD/CAD and Crude continue On… Let’s Check in
Posted on February 19, 2009 at 13:11 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Again!
Let’s check in with our two Friends here, and observe the interesting Price Action of each over the last few hours!
The Canadian Dollar continued to strengthen as our “Door of Risk Appetite” is open even further…despite a massive Bullish move here on this Time-Cycle.
Crude does the same…with even more Bullishness out of our Congested “Triple Bottom” Area… and breaks through north out of our little Range we drew in.
We are halted by Major IntraDay Resistance at $38.50ish … Will we simply test this and break through?….
Will the CAD continue south to our 1.2490 Resistance becoming Support Area here and break even further to our Congestion Area again?… and actually remain in this Area?
Will our Magenta Dynamic Trendline continue to act as Resistance?
“CVJ!… You know never to ask those Why questions!… You are trying to trick us!” , the CVJ Fan Club Guys say…
“No… I just wanted to make sure you three were paying attention and notfalling asleep or something”… hee hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Here we are with our Views again, and I simply removed the Commentary to better view the Levels here… Give them a Click, and our Update Post-Time is 18:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-hourly-2-19-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-hourly-2-19-31.gif
Let’s see where these Levels tak us for the rest of the day, and we will continue on for tomorrow’s Post as well!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Canadian Dollar... breakout, correlation, dollar, resistance, support, USD/CAD
USD/CAD Falls as Crude Bounces off an Hourly Triple Bottom
Posted on February 19, 2009 at 8:19 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Greetings Again!
We are about 12 hours ahead of our last Post, and the Canadian did, indeed, strengthen and is in our Congestion Zone as we speak….we will remain here?… or are we just having a Re-Test of the Level?
As always… We Shall See!
Crude Oil bounces out of a nice consolidating Triple Bottom formation…thanks to a visit to “Wick City” these past couple of days.
We see one of our “favorite” concepts in play here… with what I like to call “Indirect Confirmation” where I see correlating behavior in other Units as well….
The Yen Crosses have shown significant appreciation…hence opening the Risk Appetite door a little bit, as Crude Oil strengthens and the Dollar itself weakens.
We can roughly say our “Inverse” Crude and CAD correlation is back in play for the time being.
Here are both views on the Hourlies, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is about 13:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-hourly-2-19-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/oil-hourly-2-19.gif
We will check in again a bit later…and see if the Canadian Dollar itself does maintain it’s strength and stays in our little Congestion Area… and Crude will give us some validation and confirmation as well in this case!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: chart pattern, crude oil, Dollar Cad, inversion, risk appetite, triple bottom formation, USD/CAD. correlation
USD/CAD Breaks Weekly Triangle… Major Correction Needed?
Posted on February 18, 2009 at 19:58 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone and it’s nice to be back with you!
I decided to revisit our longer-term Canadian Dollar Chart…since we last visited this coiling Triangle formation a couple of weeks back!
The Loonie did, indeed, make a significant Break north out of the Triangle…as it’s “loose correlation” with slightly stronger Crude Oil ( and slightly be the operative word here…) is suggesting a Correction is in sight.
Crude Oil has had a significant fall lately, as the Dollar Canadian has had significant strength lately.
(We will add Crude to the CAD later in the day for a few Updates…)
Here is our old Weekly View…and I have left the same levels on the Chart that we had a few weeks ago simply for some general points of reference.
Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is a bit “early” at 1:00 GMT… so we will have plenty of Room for some nice Updates!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-weekly-2-19.gif
Here is the Daily…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-daily-2-19.gif
Finally… the Hourly.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-hourly-2-19.gif
In the Macro-View…fundamentally speaking… the probable Rate Cut in a few weeks by the Bank of Canada may, indeed, gives us more Price Appreciation with increased Risk Aversion,and will have the CAD being sold off…hence the stronger Dollar and appreciation of the Pair itself.
We will have another couple of Updates…so be sure to check back throughout the day!
Once again… it is great to be back with all of you!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: coil, crude oil, Dollar Canadian, triangle, USD/CAD
Back to the Blog on Wednesday !
Posted on February 16, 2009 at 11:01 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy President’s Day!
I apologize for the late Update here… and I will be returning to town, and to the Blog with you on Wednesday!
Caution is advisable today with the lighter Market Volume in general, so be careful out there!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on February 13, 2009 at 7:24 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again to All !
Asian Equities pick up the steam left from the U.S. Equities Markets of yesterday…. as well as some positive U.S. and EuroZone Data Points… and as suspected… the late Asian Session helps to define some directionality for our Surfing friend, the Aussie.
The G7 Meeting is in the air… with the last couple actually being ”paid attention to”… but we will surely see. Caution is advised, as always.
Here is our Hourly View again… and we will surely see if this Momentum can keep rolling… considering a Correction may be looming around the corner!
Give the Capture a click, and Post-Time this morning for me is 12:25 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-1hr-2-13-2.gif
Even with the Downside “Weight” we spoke of last Post… we still have the RBA Intervention Area of .6000 to “Peg” the Exchange Rate there… so in this sense… this Massive Support and Round Number-Area should provide us with a stable long-term Base.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: appreciation, AUD/USD, Exchange Rate, Fibonacci, surfing, wave Australia
Aussie Simply Cannot Find a Good Wave to Surf!
Posted on February 12, 2009 at 20:50 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday Everyone!
I thought since it was the end of the Trading Week…we would bring back our “Surfing the Beaches of Australia”Analogy !….
The Aussie Dollar is still facing consistent Downtrend Momentum pressure… and it’s Surfboard is looking pretty “Heavy” lately.
Fundamentally… the Australian Government is expected to approve and pass their Revised Stimulus Package… which should be productive for our little Surfer, shouldn’t it?
Well… if approval of ourStimulus package here in the U.S. is any indication… do not expect our Surfing friend to find any waves at all !
It appears Bells Beach is becoming Risk Aversion Beach when it comes to finding a good wave! :-)
Considering our “traditional” Gold/Aussie Correlation…we briefly touched on a couple of points in yesterday’s Post as to why this relationship has Unwound, and here is another.
Gold really is correlating to the Dollar lately… surely an aspect that goes into our “Counter-Intuitive Examples in Trading” Folder!
The Aussie Dollar… as well as most majors such as the Euro and Pound… also Outflow into Safe-Havens such as Gold and the Dollar, so when we see strong Gold we have also been seeing a strong Dollar riding along with it.
Let’s check in again on the Daily View, and see how our various Levels are moving along…
Click for the Captures, and Post-Time is 1:45 GMT… ( a bit earlier so we may have a few Updates through the day…)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-daily-2-13.gif
Here is the Hourly… and in this Capture, I retained a Fibonacci Level Projection that was rather effective several days later… very nice!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-1hr-2-13.gif
We really need a Catalyst here to gain a little movement and directionality… the Waves are pretty calm at this point.
We will check in a bit earlier than usual with an Update, and see if the mid or late-point Asian Session gives us some criteria to go with.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, downtrend, Extension, Fibonacci, Projection
Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims Clip the Dollar…What?
Posted on February 12, 2009 at 9:12 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greeting again, Everyone!
An IntraDay Update for you provides us with yet anotherexample of “Counter-Intuitive” behavior!
Retail Sales come in rather positive and off Expectation… Good for the U.S…. and the Dollar… right?… RIGHT???
“CVJ!… This is all crazy Price action here!… We are going back to trading our Matchbox Cars and Baseball Cards!.”…the CVJ Fan Club Guys say…
“I taught you guys better than that!… Do you not listen to me?… Ever?…”, I say… hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
In all seriousness here… it is rather simple!
Our Risk-Averse Dollar Strength here is simply “offset” with positive Data…. and in simplistic terms… as we see Strength in the Dollar with Negativity… we will see Weakness in the Dollar with Positive rationales.
“Rational?… You call this RATIONAL, CVJ ???” , the Guys say….
Here is our Aussie that we began with earlier, and lets really drill down to the 5-Minute Time-Cycle…and see how the “positive” Numbers actually weakenedour Risk-Averse Dollar strength…
Give the Capture a Click, and Post-Time is about 14:10 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-5m-2-12.gif
Now.. our GalPal,friend, Gold…has also taken a turn here with some consolidating on the Hourly view… as well as some downside momentum on the 5-Minute view, as illustrated.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/gold-5m-2-12.gif
We will certainly continue on with these two with more “conventional” Techs…
I simply thought the “Dollar-In-Reverse Counter Intuition” would be interesting to observe here after a “positive” Data catalyst.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, data points, decline, gold, Joless Claims, Retail Sales
Gold Comes Back for Another Visit…And the Aussie?
Posted on February 11, 2009 at 22:42 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Thursday to Everyone!
We receive another visit from our Dear Friend, Gold!
The shiny Metal “Party Girl” has decided to take us for a nice journey “north” with significant Safe-Haven Appreciation with about a $24.00 Ride on Tuesday!
It turns out Gold takes “Center Stage” at the Party…as Her “Parner in Correlation Crime” does not come along.
All of my Analogies aside here…let’s begin to examine Gold and the Aussie Dollar to find some clarification for the lack of Correlation.
” That’s right, CVJ!… The Friends of the Blog are tired of your little analogies!… Get on with it, Man!… “, the CVJ Guys say with deep contempt.
Maybe it’s time to send these guys on another ” special trip” in the UPS Truck!… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Interestingly enough…we visited with Gold three weeks ago to the day on January 22nd… and my uptrend Channel on the Daily View is still rather valid.
Remember to give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is about 3:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/gold-daily-2-12.gif
Our AUD/USD is “Basing” a bit down here in this larger Range, as seen on the Daily here…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-daily-2-12.gif
Now…obviously we do not see the highly correlated Price Action that we usually see with these two Units.
I will use this Post for more of larger Introductory sense, and we will move to Technical and get more specific as we move along.
We can discuss the Fundamental and Macro-Economic Aspects of this indefinitely, so they will not be considered here…. all except One!
In my personal view… the “De-Coupling” here is simply a product and consequence of Risk-Aversion as a climate of change.
The Australian economy is dealing with the same transgressions that every other major world economy is as well… so the end result is Insecurity and Fear.
What do you do when you are insecure and fearful?…
You go and find Security and Safety!
In our case here… the world is going back into Gold in its’ “traditional” Safe -Haven “Flight to Quality” Usage… and world Currencies are still repatriating into the “Low-Yielding” Units of the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen.
We will be back with an IntraDay Updateas we get rolling along with the Day, and we will drill down with more Technicals to see how these Two are relating to one another.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, correlation, couple, decouple, gold, safe haven
Risk-Aversion Wins This Battle with our Friends, Euro and Pound
Posted on February 10, 2009 at 21:40 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greeting to All !
An eventful and exciting day yesterday on the Battlefield!
The Risk Aversion Warriors and Risk Appetite Battalion went head to head in yesterday’s action with the Warriors being victorious in the “Stimulus Package and Geithner’s Rhetoric” Battle !
We were observing some very intersting Price levels and Key Technicals in both the Euro and Pound…and we finally had some “resolution” in the shorter-term.
Let’s have a quick Recap here on our Hourly climates, and then move along to other interesting Asset Classes!
” Thank Goodness, CVJ!… We thought you were going to discuss these two Units forever!” , say the CVJ Fan Club Guys…
Good to have them back, isn’t it!… Did all of you miss their healthy and positive Personalities?
Yes… I didn’t either…. hee hee hee http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
One more trip down “Hourly Lane” so we may check in with our progress here… as Time … as always… is the Key.
Here are two “Freeze-Frame” Captures right after Treasury Secretary Geithner’s Commentary….
Give them a Click…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-1-hr-2-10-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-1-hr-2-10-3.gif
Now…here are current Hourly Time-Cycle Captures… and our Post-Timeis 2:40 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-1-hr-2-10-4.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-1-hr-2-10-4.gif
So there we go!
Of course…we will certainly be back to visit these two… as their Cross is very interesting lately as well !
Tomorrow…let’s embark on a new journey, and take a look at the Commodity Pairs along with Gold and Crude Oil.
Tags: euro, Fibonacci, gold, oil, pound, retracementEuro and Pound Caught in Channels and Capped by Resistance
Posted on February 10, 2009 at 9:27 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Again!
We arrive at out Update with the Euro and Pound…and despite the Russian situation and more Stimulus “Rhetoric” boosting the Dollar…we still are caught literally every which way with these two Units!
As mentioned in the latter half of last night’s Post directly below this Update… we still need our “Scenarios” to play out here irregardless of which side of the Fence you reside!
Here are our Hourlies again, so give them a quick Click… and Post-Time is about 5 minutes before the NYSE Open…at 14:25 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-1-hr-2-10-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-1-hr-2-10-2.gif
The “Rhetoric” Catalyst here is still involved with the Obama Stimulus Plan and more progress and such today… but all we need is our Technicals here…. stick with the Tools that you know with stability.
Certainly we will return if we see any significant changes with these two Currency Friends!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: channel, euro, Obama, pound, resistance, Stimulus, support
Euro Fails on Initial Assault… But is The Unit Exhausted?
Posted on February 9, 2009 at 21:23 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Tuesday Everyone!
We have a failed breach of our Resistance levels we have been discussing the past few Posts here, as the Risk Appetite Batallion is surely out on the Battlefield!
This brings up an excellent “Textbook” Example of one of my favorite CVJ ”Built-In Lessons”…
”Always Being Aware of the Other Side of the Trade”.
Let’s look at the 1-Hour, and then I will comment on the specifics of my thought process here…
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 2:20 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-1-hr-2-10.gif
What I am referring to here how we can formulate and support a specific Trading View here.
If you are Bullish, and you are on the Field with the Risk Appetite Forces… then you may find your particular Strategy viable here, as the probability for more Buying on the Price corrections here would be in your favor.
Considering where we are back in the Wedge…we will again pick up some of the “Energy” that has been bleeding out of that Area for more “Fuel”, for lack of a better term.
This will give you more propulsive Momentum for another push “north” to breach your Resistance areas after all…and at the same time “Breaking” out of the Wedge for good.
Now… if you are Bearish in your views, you also have several tools in your Weapons Arsenal with the Risk Aversion Warriors on the Battlefield.
First of all…you have the failed breach of Resistance that we originally spoke of…and the more “failed” attempts, the more “bullish exhaustion” you gain… even if Price does break through.
In most cases, you will have a failed Breakout on your hands…and this is in your favor.
One way this is done is by many having to “cover” their Long positions at this Area so we have less Buying which equates to more Selling.
In other words…we try to climb the mountain and continually slip on rocks that bring us back down!… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Another aspect supporting your Bearish View is the 4-Hour Downside Channel in the Capture below we have been adhering to for almost two months.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-4-hr-2-10.gif
Of course we will check in later for an IntraDay Update…as well as check in with our Dear Mum, The Queen!… as we need to see how Cable is moving along.
Whichever View is the Perspective for you…one thing is always constant on the Field of Battle!
Manage your Risk and Lot size and Leverage… or you will simply be watching the Battle from the sidelines…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: appreciation, correction, depreciation, EUR/USD, euro, Fiber, retracement, Stimulus
Euro and The Queen poised for a Turn on the Highway?
Posted on February 9, 2009 at 10:13 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Greetings again, Everyone!
A quick Update for you on our Stout and Bullish friends, Euro and Pound.
We move to Hourlies this time with both, and are approaching Key Resistance Levels here, where we may see Reversals due to a bit of Bullish Exhaustion.
As always… Price cannot appreciate and depreciate indefinitely…
Just like us when we exercise… we need a little “rest” as well….
But… we will just “Rest” with these two?…or simply hike back down the mountains?
We Shall See!…
Give them a Click, and Post-Time is 15:05 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-1-hr-2-9.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-1-hr-2-9.gif
We will check in again to see exactly when…and if…these Levels remain in focus !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: appreciate, depreciate, euro, pound, Queen, retracement, reversal
Risk Appetite Stimulates the Majors… But for How Long?
Posted on February 8, 2009 at 21:43 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome back to a new week, Everyone!
We continue to see the majors roll on during the Sydney Open on Sunday, with no real exhaustion in Price.
The Macro-Economic Data this can be “attributed” to is the next phase of completion with the Congressonal U.S. Stimulus Package… but you know me… the “Why” does not really concern me or other Technicians and Chartists.
It simply Is what it Is….
Both the Euro and the Pound illustrate this nicely, so let us continue on, since we have spent the last few days with these two Units.
Once again, here we are on the Euro Hourly and the Pound 4-Hour Views.
Give them a click, and Post-Time tonight (for me) is 2:45 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-1-hour-2-9.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-4-hour-2-9.gif
Of course, we will re-visit these with some Updates as we move through the day…and really see how “strong” they remain…
As always of late..we may just be seeing large Macro-Corrections and Retracements.. and we will check this idea later today!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Congress, EUR/USD, Fibonacci, GBP/USD, retracement, Risk Appetitie, Stimulus Package
NFP Clips with 598K Loss, and the Euro and Pound Swim On…
Posted on February 6, 2009 at 10:02 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Again !
Well… not a big shock to anyone with overall NFP Data Points today…especially with a higher Revision to 577K from last month.
So… obviously our Euro and Pound friends have continued on with Price Appreciation going forward…with a good day’s worth of Risk Appetite for Momentum.
Let’s pull up our Charts again for a quick peek… and Post-Time is 15:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-1hour-nfp-2-7-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-4hour-nfp-2-7-2.gif
Have a fine weekend!…and the CVJ Fan Club Guys and myself will be back with you Sunday form the Sydney Open!
We will have a check of the rest of today’s activities, and see where we have Daily Closes.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: euro, nfp, pound, risk appetite, Risk Aversion, unemplyment
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on February 6, 2009 at 7:18 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi Everyone!
Our Euro and Pound continue on, with GBP/USD gaining steady strength in our Channel, as well as the EUR/USD moving in to the Median Range of it’s Channel as well !
Will we see these “Contrarian” moves in Dollar strength anytime soon?
After all…with an expected clip of 540K in Losses for NFP… the Big Hands can simply take some positions off of the world’s tables and those Selling Orders will Fill to strengthen the Dollar “By Default” as we say…
OR…we may simply have “Blocks” of this Data Expectation “Priced In” to the Markets.
NFP is as good of an Excuse as any to let most Majors appreciate on, and indeed…Re-Position to correct plenty of Risk-Averse Dollar strength of late.
Here we are again on the Hourly of the Euro and the 4-Hour of the Pound, so give them a click… and Post-Time is about an hour ahead of NFP at 12:15 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-nfp-1-hour-2-7.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-4-hour-nfp-2-7.gif
We will check back in after the Data digests a bit into the Markets, and see of our whole “counter-intuitive” Price Actions does, indeed, again take place this month.
Remember… with Risk Aversion still presiding over Court as Judge and Jury overall… we may continue to give back any Dollar weakness the Release may give us…and take back the “safe-haven” Flight into Quality Strength we have seen over numerous occasions.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Data, EUR/USD, euro, GBP/USD, nfp, pound, strength
EUR and GBP Correct with The Queen’s Strength… and NFP?
Posted on February 5, 2009 at 22:02 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday to All !
Non-Farm Payroll Data should prove interesting for our two “Superstars of Battle”, the Euro and the Pound!
With counter-intuition, Price action extremes, and the larger “Re-Positioning” of the Markets…these two Units may provide some interesting movements.
A short Post tonight…as I will do a few Updates throughout the day tomorrow (my time) as we move along and digest the Data Points that filter in…
Here we are on the Hourlies on both Pairs, so give them a click to see where we have progressed since after out last Post visit from the BoE and ECB Interest Rate Decisions.
Post-Time is 3:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-nfp-1-hour-2-6.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/pound-nfp-1-hour-2-6.gif
We will see you back here soon for another Update as we pass through the Asian/London Overlap…and move into Pre-NFP Mode…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: channel, euro, nfp, Pound Sterling, Price
BoE and ECB in Line…and The Queen Swims Along Just Fine!
Posted on February 5, 2009 at 11:08 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Thursday again to Everyone!
The BoE and ECB clock in with their anticipatory Rate Decisions… although The Queen receives a “second wind” of energy during Her swim in the English Channel and is approaching Key Levels as of this writing.
Have a look, and Post-Time is about 16:05 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/cable-boe-4-hour-2-5.gif
The Euro is flailing around a bit in a slightly Descending Channel here…. and is contending with some inherent overall weakness…despite the corrective moves we have seen lately.
We will see of we simply “hover” around in the larger Static Horizontal Range here….
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/euro-boe-1-hour-2-5.gif
Here is where it gets interesting…the Contrarian correction in the Pound itself is “bleeding out” to its’ “Sister” Pairs as well… Pound Yen.. Pound Swiss, etc., and just may be beginning to lose a little Momentum after the last few hours.
We can check in for tomorrow’s Daily Post, and see how we have progressed going into NFP !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: BoE, ECB, EUR/USD, euro, GBP/USD, interest rate, pound, Sterling
The BoE and The Queen… Will She Keep Up Her Pace?
Posted on February 4, 2009 at 22:21 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi Everyone!
With an expected Clip of .50 Basis-Points by the Bank of England from the current 1.50% Rate down to 1.00% …, (with talk of maybe even a .75 basis-point Cut) …the British Pound has a few criteria to contend with!
(P.S….My apology for those who received today’s FXstreet European Newsletter by email…with the incorrect Interest Rate of 1.25% instead of the correct 1.50%….. the CVJ Fan Club Guys were threatening a Coup d’etat to overthrow The Queen!…so I was a little nervous while writing the Post…http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
The Data Points out of theU.S. today came in with better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing numbers, as well as better-than-expected ADP numbers.
With the continuing “out of favor” Sentiment of the British Pound… how will Her Majesty, The Queen, fair with her “excellent upside swimming” lately in the Channel?
One thing is certain…She will not exactly beat Michael Phelps in a Swim Meet now, will She!
The Price Appreciation we have seen lately… in my personal view …is purely Technical…having nothing to do with any real outside U.K. Data Points of late.
Can it continue on?…despite the deeply probable Rate Cut out of “Mervyn and the Boys” at the BoE?
You Bet!
The “true Catalyst”here in the immediate short-term will be the accompanying Statement by the BoE going forward…
Let’s have a look at my long-term Weekly preference to examine this “counter-intuitive” thought…
Give the Captures a Click as always, and Post-Time tonight for us is 3:20 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/cable-boe-weekly-2-5.gif
The Daily gives a bit more insight with some other confluence and congestive Areas…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/cable-boe-daily-2-5.gif
The Hourly gives us more clarity with these “General” Hawkish and Dovish Areas.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/cable-boe-hourly-2-5.gif
Now…be mindful of these general Areas of Support and Resistance…whether they are behaving Statically or Dynamically.
We will certainly check in with an Update after the Decision is digested, and see where we are.
It will be interesting to see if we reach significant levels on either side…considering the “always-muted Tone” of Price action ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls each month.
Remember…the true “Definers” of these Markets…Institutions, Global Entities, Hedge Funds, Central Banks, etc. are re-positioning the Playing Field already… so Caution is advised moving forward.
We certainly do not know what will take place…nor do we have any expectations as well.
As always…try not to be a Predictor…and striveto be a Reactor.
The Markets will always lead you to where They wish you to be…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: British Pound, Cable, dovish, England, Fibonacci, GBP/USD, hawkish, housing, interest rate, Market, Queen
Aussie Fails To Push Through…The Culprit Here?
Posted on February 4, 2009 at 6:58 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Wednesday!
A brief Update here on our AUD/USD Price action brings to mind a few good points!
Our immediate surge through Resistance here on the Hourly did fail, as we look to be moving for another Test of Support on the back of Risk Aversion and the stronger Dollar.
Give the Capture a click, and Post-Time now is about 12:00 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-post-rba-next-day-3.gif
But why really does this happen?…..
It brings to mind one of the Beautiful Principles of Trading!
The Concept of “Always Be Aware of Who Is On the Other Side”….and many variants, of course.
If your view was largely a Counter-Trend view…the push through and continuation of Price appreciation would have been in your favor.
If your view was in concert with the larger overall Trend… then you had significant Builds of Selling orders around this same Resistance level…viewing this as a larger Bear Flag formation.
The Counter-Trend folks were certainly stopped out here…but they have significant probability in their favor now down at Support of buying opportunities.
On the the other hand…the Trend folks will simply hold on…looking for the larger Support of the .6060’s Area and simply ignore the Market “Noise”.
Always food for thought here, as we have an infinite number of ways to work in these Markets… but as always… having your defined Risk Parameters in place will make sure you actually “STAY”in these Markets!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: appreciation, AUD/USD, counter trend, Fibonacci, Price, resistance, support, trend
AUD/USD Strengthens as Data Improves Bullish Momentum
Posted on February 3, 2009 at 21:51 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone!
Let’s check in with the Aussie development from yesterday, and here is a view of the Hourly a few hours back illustrating our “delayed” reaction and re-positioning of Price after the RBA Decision.
My reference in the Title of today’s Post is not exclusive to just Australian Data.
As we know…Nothing exists in a Vacuum…including whole Economies.
While the RBA’s stout Rate Cut, improved Retail Sales, and the massive second Stimulus Package are in play here….we also have to account for the increase in Pending Home Sales out of the U.S. and lower Inflationary concerns out of the Euro-Zone as well.
A bit “counter-intuitive” as always lately…but it really becomes a thought of “What Flash-Point is the Lesser of All Evils”….what will do the least amount of damage and slowly bring Risk Appetite back to the table.
(click for the captures, and Post-Time is 2:50 GMT )
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-post-rba-next-day.gif
Currently, a Price correction has come into play, and Fractal Price action is following due and logical course.
We have Price appreciation buoying us up a bit due to positive 3.8% increase in Retail Sales vs. November numbers.
Continued Bullish Momentum here is taking us to a possible ”Re-Test” of this .6530 Area of Static Resistance.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-post-rba-next-day-2.gif
It is, indeed, highly probable that we may push through with ease here towards the .6600 “Cluster” Area that we saw late last week on the Hourly…but as always only time will tell.
Anything is possible…and your defined and well-advised Risk Parameters will assist in containing that so-called “Anything” !
Tags: Australia, Fractal, momentum, resistance, supportRBA Clips Rates 100bps to 3.25% …Can We Surf Yet?
Posted on February 2, 2009 at 22:53 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Hi Everyone!
Now that the “Day of Mourning” is completed for the Arizona Cardinals loss in the Super Bowl…we can move on to more pertinent events!
The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut Rates again by 1 full percentage point , so let’s see where we are on the Aussie Dollar.
With a second Stimulus Package of $26.5 Billion (about $42 Billion total) poised to “support” the Australian economy…the idea of further Cuts in the future is easing.
Here is the Daily view about an Hour before the RBA Decision…
(Click once for the captures, and Post-Time is 4:00 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-pre-rba.gif
The Post-RBA View really does not give us significant movement here… about 60-75-pips in appreciation… but as we know with Data Points releases…we can see a “delayed” reaction…or simply no reaction at all.
Remember…in the Macro-View…Global Data Points have been largely “ignored” and swallowed by the Markets… especially with Risk Aversion as the Big Dog on the Block these days.
Here is the Hourly view… with nice consistent Bullish appreciation on this Time-Cycle.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/aussie-post-rba.gif
Well…so far…no “monster” Waves to surf here on the Australian Dollar Seas …but we will certainly check back in for an Update …and have Gold come along for the ride as well !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Austraila, central bank, Commiditiy, correlation, gold, interest rate, metal
Canadian Dollar Consolidates for a Imminent Breakout?
Posted on February 1, 2009 at 23:01 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone!
Well… our Arizona Cardinals did not prevail…but I will say this… What a Game!
“HA, CVJ!…What happened to the Boys from the Wild West of Phoenix???”, the CVJ Guys say with heavy sarcasm and conceit.
“I respectfully decline to answer on the grounds of self-incrimination”, I say…. hee hee…
Let’s have a look at something we haven’t seen in a while… The Loonie!
The Dollar Canadian Pair is in an interesting area now on the Weekly…
We have a larger Symmetrical Triangular formation here, indicating a Breakout is imminent.
The overall Formation here is very stout…as we have such a large Flagpole here that when a Break does come…it will be significant, as the momentum built up will have to be expelled…regardless of direction.
(Give the Captures a click, and Post-Time is 4:00 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-weekly.gif
“CVJ!…We’re sorry about the Super Bowl…Really We are! … Which way is the CAD going to break?…Huh?…HUH?…Tell us now !!!”
Those poor CVJ Fan Club guys…they still do not realize that NO ONE KNOWS where Price will go… ;-(
Granted…all of you know me and my Position Trading ways…so this could take a few weeks…but we can always move to higher Time-Cycles and still observe the potential Break.
In the spirit of fair play and sportsmanship, here is the Hourly for all of my Intraday friends !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/02/loonie-hourly.gif
With just a simple Fib of the Hourly Uptrend…we can see the 38.2% is providing us some Support here…
We have a nice wide range here that will continue to coil in accordance with the larger Formation, and we will track our Analysis as we move along this week.
Some Disclaimers here:
( I have no disparagement to really any style or time-cycle in Trading. This is an Equal-Opportunity Blog…so all perspectives are welcome. I would also like to mention…the Charts and Platform here I use for the Blog is for “illustrative” Purposes ONLY!
I do not use these to execute Positions…as I keep a lot of information on them to show all of you my “thought process” each day, and build on the prior days’ progression of activity.
I felt it was necessary to point this out considering my early Post on Tools and Data on your Platforms. )
Now…as for the CVJ Guys…I hope they have a nice trip back to Pittsburgh celebrating their Super Bowl victory!
Of course…they will not get far…considering I traded their First Class Airline tickets for a ride in the back of FedEx Truck… As Cargo!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: Canada, Canadian Dollar, football, Loonie, oil, Super Bowl, USD/CAD
A Currency Round-Up Party for January 2009…Bring Presents!
Posted on January 29, 2009 at 22:15 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday to All !
What an interesting January it has turned out to be!….so I thought I would do something a bit different with just some general summaries and thoughts as we move into February.
We have seen upsets, heartbreaks, and surprising action just this month alone! …and that has just been in NFL Football here in the States! …hee hee hee…http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
( I am still in shock that my hometown Arizona Cardinals made it to the Super Bowl…much less won a game!…)
“CVJ!…What kind of Team Spirit is that?…You should be left out in the desert to perish!” , the CVJ Guys say…
What can I say?…I have been a witness to Mediocrity since the Team arrived to Phoenix in 1988!
Seriously…we can apply some of the same attributes to Price action in our Foreign Exchange world, as well as many Derivatives we correlate with.
“Crude Oil as tumbled while Gold has rumbled!”…
“The Pound hit the ground but the Queen is back on the attack!”…
“Euro has been fooled by the Swissy Cool!”…
and finally…
“The Dollar and the Yen surely win in the End!”
Here are Daily “Naked” Charts of the above…and my thought here is for YOU to think about your OWN views and thoughts with where we are on all of these Units.
Remember to click for all of the Captures, and Post-Time is 3:10 GMT.
CRUDE ( March Contract)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/crude-daily-naked.gif
GOLD (Spot)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/gold-daily-naked.gif
CABLE
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-daily-naked.gif
FIBER
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/fiber-daily-naked.gif
SWISSY
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/swissy-daily-naked.gif
YEN
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/yen-daily-naked.gif
Perhaps a bit unusual as a Topic for the Blog, but I really want you to do your own contemplation here…
Remember yesterday when we spoke of the attributes of not having “Favorite” Pairs and Derivatives to work with?…
Use that “New Objective Eye” of yours and tell me your thoughts!
A few Caveats, of course.
No Prediciting or Expectation Allowed!
Tell me what you “SEE”…and formulate your thoughts around this.
Your comments and questions are always welcome and encouraged and I look forward to the interaction.
I will check the Post daily all next week, and next Friday we will see where we are in our Dialogue…so post away!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: British Pound, crude oil, disconnect, euro, gold, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc
U.S. Data Sinks in the Channel This Time…and The Queen?
Posted on January 29, 2009 at 9:33 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Thursday!
Our Post-Time is about 14:30 GMT, so let’s update where we are on the GBP/USD !
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims rises to a historic 588K, Continuing Claims for those out of employment for a while clocks in at 4776K, up from 4607K, and finally ourCars, Washers, and Plasma TVs drop into the English Channel with -2.6% and -3.6% Core, respectively.
“We are shocked, CVJ…Shocked!”,the CVJ Guys cry….with obvious sarcasm.
Indeed…no real surprises here…increasing Unemployment will sort of curb that new Plasma TV purchase for the Super Bowl this weekend, won’t it… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Let’s check Cable, and see how our Queen’s swim in the Channel is fairing with Her slight gain due to the Dollar’s losing a few Laps for this swim meet.
(click once for the capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-1-28-21.gif
We’ll check in for a quick Recap later, and see if the Queen can keep up Her edge in the 400- Meter Swim!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Cable, channel, Data, dollar, news, pound, Sterling
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on January 28, 2009 at 22:48 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Hello Everyone!
Our friends at the FOMC did not meet us at the door with a bottle of 1951 Chateau Lafite Rothschild …more like a bottle of Ripple from Apu at the corner Kwik-E-Mart! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
We did receive typical rhetoric out of the Monetary Policy announcement full of downside risk and weakness across the board…and again with classic ”Counter-Intuitive” behavior…the Dollar sailed.
So how is the Queen anyway?
When we last had a visit with Her…She was still trying to hang onto the Empire.
A stout rebound off of the major swing Low @ 1.35 gained some traction and well-needed support since Monday.
So…was this Her determination?…or the Dollar simply taking a Nap?
As of Post-Time…the Latter appears to be the case.
“CVJ…If you love the Queen, Cable, so much…Why don’t you just move there!” , the CVJ Guys say with indignation…
“Hmmm…”, I say…
The culture and history of London? …I could handle that quite well !
(We will get back to this later in the Post…)
Here is the Hourly, so give it a click…and Post-Time is 3:50 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-1-281.gif
As we have spoken of the U.K. fundamental woes lately, we will not revisit them here.
Let’s simply go by Price action and check in with an Update later in the day to see if any of these levels remain in validation or are breached…as we have plenty of U.S. Data Points to digest with Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, and Durable Goods.
We will see if the Dollar will continue its’ “Fear-Based” Counter-Intuition…or if the Queen,indeed, does have some life in Her yet!
“And Now…Back to Our Story!”…..
The CVJ Guys bring up a valid point here.
It really is to one’s advantage to not really have a “favorite” when working with Currency pairs…or any Derivative for that matter.
In the Blog, I try to give some variety to the Units that we work with and focus on…but there are certainly scores of Currency pairs to work with out there…
The goal here is to remain as objective as you can…and look for High Probability and Opportunity.
By being subjective and having “favorite” Pairs, we run the risk of actually searching for a Tradeon one of our Favorites…plus…we then have our judgement and observation “clouded” as to not see other possibly fine Opportunities right in front of us.
You will begin to “See” things that you may have otherwise ignored, and reap the benefits of “new Eyes” !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: breach, Cable, channel, GBP/USD, objective, Queen, subjective, valid
Gold, the FOMC, and some Flags….A Relationship?
Posted on January 27, 2009 at 21:13 in Uncategorized by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Wednesday to All !
What a glorious and enchanting Day!
The Birds are singing…The Sun is shining…and Big Ben and Friends are arriving later from the Genius Chamber to enlighten us on Monetary Policy !
Sort of puts a Song in your Heart, doesn’t it !
“We’ll stick to watching the Grass grow!”, says the CVJ Fan Club Guys… ;-)
Well…in my view..an aspect of curiosity will be the topic of Inflation.
Would you like to know why I am curious?…what floats my boat?…what spins my wheels???…
THIS!
(Click once for the Captures, and Post-Time is 2:15 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/gold-bear-flag-monthly-1-27.gif
Give this Capture a click to continue!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/gold-bull-flag-monthly-1-27.gif
These “potential” large Monthly Flag Patterns represent phases of Price Accumulation…so we will see in a few months which “Flag” comes to fruition.
Always remember, though…that in a situation of Deflation..the “Bottom” is a super Grey Area and can last much longer than we “expect”.
Inflation, on the other side of the street, can appear in an “instant”…much sooner than we “expect”.
Now…for a long-overdue “Built-In” Lesson!…
REMOVE THE WORD “EXPECT” …FROM EVERY ASPECT OF YOUR TRADING WORK !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: crude oil, deflation, dollar, fomc, inflation, swissy
Gold Rolls Along… and Leaves Swissy at the Airport!
Posted on January 26, 2009 at 22:14 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings !
Well…it appears our Northern friend, the Swiss Franc, heads home from vacation as it takes a steep dive in Price Depreciation.
“Personally, CVJ…We think the Euro planned the whole thing…It’s Sabotage!” …the CVJ Guys shout !
Seriously…with Gold remaining rather stout and heavily-injected with “Fear-Based Safe-Haven” Momentum… the Swissy may have some of that Momentum as well… as the Dollar fell about 200+ pips yesterday.
It is a Conundrum, though, isn’t it … rather “Counter-Intuitive”…
A bit Risk Appetite did return the to Markets yesterday to support the Majors…citing strong global Equities, and better-than-expected and “positive” Existing Home Sales numbers as the “Catalyst”.
“Sure…whatever they say, CVJ”,the Guys say.
I agree… and simply choose to define them as Technical movements in Price.
Here is Gold on the Hourly View.
Commentary/Analysis on the Captures so give them a click as always…
(Post-Time is 3:15 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/gold-hourly-1-26.gif
Swissy is presenting us with some significant Downside direction, and here is the Daily Chart.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/swissy-daily-1-26.gif
On the Hourly, we have some Fibonacci “Clusters” that are confluences of Price into “Magnet” areas that we see so often.
The Hourly TrendlineBreak is giving us a “Barrier” to work with here on either side…a “Marker”, if you will.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/swissy-hourly-1-26.gif
We will check in with these two Units as we progress with U.S. Data Points due today…as we want to observe how the Dollar reacts with these Correlations here…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: cluster, confluence, continuation, correlation, Fibonacci, gold, safe haven, USD/CHF
Gold Breaks North…Does the Swissy Come Along, Too?
Posted on January 25, 2009 at 22:42 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Monday Everyone!
Now that we have Gold…and Crude Oil for that matter…rallying in the Commodities Complexes, how have Currency Units been affected the last couple of days?
First things first, though…let’s quickly Recap our beloved Queen!…and see where Pound Dollar has started the week…here is the Hourly View.
Be sure to click on the Captures, as most of the commentary and analysis are within…
( Post-Time is 3:45 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/1.gif
Let’s examine these recent events by a look at another correlated Gold Pair…the USD/CHF…the Swissy.
Due to the inverse correlation we have with Gold against the Dollar…the Dollar is pulling back against most adversarial Currencies on its’ journey.
Our Breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle here on the Hourly Gold Chart did follow through Friday, so let’s see where we are…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/gold-hourly-1-25.gif
Here is the Swissy on the Daily view… we are seeing a pullback in Gold as of this writing..so some bullish Dollar strength is obviously evident in the Swissy.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/swissy-daily-1-25.gif
We shall see how we progress throughout the day, and check in for an Update on all three Units if need be…otherwise let’s continue with them for a couple of days.
These key levels and the potential depth of the pullbacks and corrections need to be adhered to, so let’s see how we fair.
As always… Remember these Correlations…and ALL Correlations…will couple and decouple according to their own fundamental and inherent factors…so be sure to view each Unit on its’ own merit.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: appreciation, breakout, Cable, commodities, GBP/USD, gold, Metals, pound, safe haven, sentiment, Sterling, Switzerland, USD/CHF
The “Queen” Falls to the Bottom of the English Channel
Posted on January 23, 2009 at 9:42 in Uncategorized by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Hi Everyone!
The poor Queen!…
We have been trying to rescue her for quite some time now on the Blog here and there…
With her Battle with the Euro, and Her issues on the home front…She has continued to struggle.
It should be no surprise to anyone that the U.K. is officially in “Recession Mode”…with a sharp decline in GDP, and ironically…overall Retail Sales were up a bit.
So what is the Key here?
In my personal view…it is all about “Market Sentiment”.
The Pound itself has been “out of favor” with the anticipations several months ago of the “Black Plague” of the U.S. issues spreading around the globe.
The Yen certainly has not helped things with a “Uni-Directional” view in slamming every Major Currency that comes to its’ shores.
Let’s take a look at an Hourly view, and see what our earlier Data Points brought to the Party…
Analysis and Commentary on the Capture…so give it a click!
(Post-Time is 14:40 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/pound-friday-1-23.gif
We will check in with the Channel action Sunday…as well as our Gold Post from the earlier Post.
Our Pennant did, indeed, break and hit our Magenta target there…so give it a look if you have a moment.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Black Plague, channel, depreciation, GBP/USD, GDP, Gross Domestic Product, Queen, Retail SalesGold Drops By for a Visit… So Let’s Have A Chat!
Posted on January 22, 2009 at 21:42 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem3 Comments »
Happy Friday To Everyone !
While our Yen Crosses of Euro Yen and Pound Yen continue in their Macro-Ranges with Risk -Aversion easing a little…Gold decides to emerge from the Inauguration Festivities for a visit !
“Stupid Gold!… If there’s a Party somewhere She’s always Invited!…She always gets to do everything! …
Hmmm…the CVJ Guys seem a little perturbed here… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Here is the Monthly View…
(click once for the captures…and Post-Time is roughly 2:45 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/gold-monthly-one.gif
Now let’s go to the Daily and add an Upside Swing Fib there as well to see if we have some “Clustering” areas and Fib Confluence.
We will also add some Macro-Static Support and Resistance levels as well as a trending Channel.
Our Channel is functioning here as Dynamic Range levels to work with, and if probabilities compliment our view… a touch of the Magenta 876.50 “minor resistance” area would be a fine “target” for us next week.
Granted…we are overall Bearish on Gold in the large Macro-Term, but in this case, we see a probable Counter-Trend View here within the Channel itself.
This would be logical as back out on the Monthly…we really are “behaving” in a large Bear Flag Formation.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/gold-daily-one.gif
“How about the Hourly for our Intraday Friends?”,asks the CVJ Guys.
“Sure!” ,I say…
(They’re not so bad after all… the CVJ Guys… at least there’s a bit of consideration in their icy veins!…)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/gold-hourly-one.gif
The Hourly provides a nice Range to work in within the “Lower Band” of the Channel.
We have a nice area of Price action that is “behaving” as a Symmetrical Triangle/Pennant Formation…so we may certainly see a Break here relatively soon.
Now…if we obey “Classical” Technical Analysis, and if our Break comes to the upside…we will meet our Magenta target, indeed, by simple measurement of the “Flagpole” itself.
We will meet again, as always, Sunday for the Sydney Open and see where we have traveled.
In the meantime…hide all of your Gold…
The CVJ Fan Club Guys are on the War Path!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: channel, commodity, dollar, gold, intraday, metal, range, resistance, support
The Yen Retreats and The Queen Sinks…But For How Long?
Posted on January 21, 2009 at 22:07 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to Thursday !
With the Yen and its’ new best friend, the Dollar, continuing down Risk Aversion Avenue…our Hourly Retracements in these strong Downtrends did, indeed, come through.
We have some working Channels here to observe with our Intraday Support and Resistance Areas functioning nicely.
First Thing First….some thoughts that came to mind with my Update yesterday.
About one minute after the Intraday Update yesterday, we saw a surge of Yen strength in the Crosses.
Of course…this struck me as a bit “ironic”,in that my commentary on the Captures were referencing the retracements and possible upside sentiments.
While they did finally arrive…the “ironic timing” of the Post became another fine example of one of my Key Views in Trading:
Never Expect Anything and Never Predict Anything.
I try to give you some “probabilities” each day based on my own personal analysis and as always…it is your responsibility to due your own due diligence dependent on your own personal views.
This, again, becomes one of those situations of asking the “Wrong Question”.
There is no “Right or Wrong” in Trading, and all we have is our own personal view.
As long as you Adapt to the Price action you are Seeing…then in my opinion…you are on the right Path.
“Hey CVJ!…Is the Lecture over?…Are you going to take our Recess away or give us Detention?…hee hee…”,
say the CVJ Fan Club Guys.
OK OK …my Diatribe is over!….. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Let’s use the Pound Yen Hourly we have been working with, and also “The Queen”, Cable, to see how the Dollar has handled all of this Action of late…
Commentary and Analysis on the Captures, so give them a Click!
(Post-Time is 3:10 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-yen-hour-1-22.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-hour-1-22.gif
As mentioned in the previous Post…we do have probabilities of the Risk-Averse Dollar and Yen motivation continuing in the Markets.
This…due to being a bit “counter-intuitive…does provide opportunity for both Trend Following and Contrarian views, as we do see large swing reversals in Price on more of an Intraday Basis.
Irregardless of which “Side of the Fence” you are on…just maintain your diligence and be selective.
It will suit you well in the end.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: aversion, Cable, dollar, Euro Yen, GBP/USD, pound yen, Sterling, Yen
Yen Crosses Take A Rest From Their Ski Trip
Posted on January 21, 2009 at 10:32 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello to All !
Let’s check in with the Pound Yen and Euro Yen, and see where we have some in the last 12 hours since our last Post.
We are largely consolidating here on both Pairs, according to our Hourly views.
As always…when we see this type of Price action… building of energy increases for a Break out of the clustering behavior.
Commentary on the Captures, so be sure to Click!…and our Post-Time is 15:30 GMT.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/pound-yen-hourly-1-21.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-yen-hourly-1-21.gif
So…let’s see where we move here…Retracements on both of these Units is definitely due…
Of course… we do not expect anything …so be sure to allow your Eyes to lead you…and do not just dive in somewhere “Head First!”
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: consolidation, continuation, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY
The Yen Crosses Continue Skiing Down Inauguration Hill !
Posted on January 20, 2009 at 22:24 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Wednesday Everyone!
In light of the first “real” day of trading for the week…I will not address any commentary today on the Inauguration….except for our large Yen/Equities Correlation.
(I thought we would wait out the rest of the Big Day…hence why I waited and decided not to do an Intraday Update as promised in the previous Post.)
The 330-point drop in the Dow yesterday was the largest on record for an Inauguration Day of a new U.S. President.
Since we know the Yen Crosses, Risk Appetite and Risk Aversion, and the Equities generally correlate in concert on the Macro-Term…let’s check to see just how long the Ski Slope of “Inauguration Hill” really is!!!
Picking up where we left off…the Crosses really are self-explanatory today….but I do have a special “Term” for you!…
“DOWN!”… hee hee hee http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Both the Euro Yen and the Pound Yen have been “Basing” at various Key and Dynamic Levels over the last few weeks…and yesterday…they literally hit the Jackpot!
With reaching Key Multi-Year Support levels…we really need to see where we are on the Larger Time-Cycles.
We really have nothing to “support” us here…since we have crashed through the April 1995 Support Low on Pound Yen…and the 115.85 massive Daily Support on Euro Yen.
Commentary/Analysis on the Charts, so be sure to give them a Click!
(Post-Time is 3:30 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/pound-yen-monthly-1-20.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/pound-yen-daily-1-20.gif
Here’s the Euro Yen Views…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-yen-weekly-1-20.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-yen-daily-1-20.gif
When the U.S. Equities markets open…we will see how we fair along here…and we WILL check in for an Intraday Update on some tighter Time Cycles.
Perhaps the retracements we are seeing already will fully materialize…
Then again…
The Yen sure is enjoying His Downhill Skiing, isn’t He!…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: correlation, Dow Jones, equities, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, Inauguration, Obama, Risk Aversion, unilateral
The Yen Crosses Go Skiing With Us As Well!
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 21:59 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Tuesday to All!
The Markets worked with “thin” Volume yesterday, and when we see this type of climate…we tend to see rather “linear” moves in most Currency Units.
To be more specific…when a massive Volume and Flow Producer, such as the U.S., is largely out of the picture…we really do not have the obstacles of “Counter-Order Blocks” to significantly assist in changing intraday direction.
The Yen Crosses of Pound Yen and Euro Yen are prime examples here, so let’s have a look at the Daily views.
Apparently…the Swissy called them from the slopes yesterday and asked them to join the Party! ;-)
(Post-Time is 3:00 GMT)
(click once for the captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/pound-yen-1-20.gif
Euro Yen shows a bit more “Tendency” here to the downside…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-yen-1-20.gif
The Hourly Views tell the whole story, with significant Depreciation all day yesterday.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/pound-yen-hourly-1-20.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-yen-hourly-1-20.gif
We may see significant Reversals on an Intraday basis here, as U.S. Volume and Sentiment returns to the Stage…as well as the big historical Presidential Inauguration Day being upon us!
Depending on your particular view…this could be meaningful to you or simply another day in your “Life As A Trader”…
We will do an Intraday Update to check where we are…especially as we approach the Inauguration Ceremonies.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: downtrend, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, Inauguration, Market Volume, President, sentiment
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