EUR/USD
H4 graph
H4 graph
Until ECB rates will be published tomorrow, the market is still staying in a side trend and has formed a "triangle" figure. Although I have a lot of strong resistances (1.2830, 1.2790) below and the picture on the daily graph is being built upwards, due to the fact that a "triangle" is formed I should also consider a possibility of developing the picture downwards, because the market's tone will define the side of the figure to which it will be broken.
That’s why there are two variants of events development for tomorrow (if the figure will have been broken after ECB rates publication) and for Friday (if the figure will have been broken after USA TICS rates publication - employment outside the agriculture):
1. If the figure will be broken upwards, the pair will reach "B+" trend line (1.3250), and upon its breaking the pair will aim at the target level 1.3820.
2. If the figure will be broken downwards, the pair will reach the target of 1.2260 and probably go lower.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1233782298_eu4.gif
GBP/USD
H4 graph
The pair has broken an important descending trend "B-B+", telling about the market’s intention to go up. Meanwhile a "diamond" figure has been formed, which is holding the pair within. Again, the market needs publication of the news to gain an incentive to move. In presence of this figure just like in eur/usd we should consider market’s movement both upwards and downwards, so:
1. If the figure will be broken upwards, "C+" trend line (1.4760) will be the target, then 1.5000 and higher upon its breaking.
2. If the figure will be broken downwards, 1.3780 will be the target.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1233782333_gu4.gif
USD/CHF
H4 graph
A "triangle" figure has been formed just like in eur/usd. I have a lot of resistances above, and the daily graph is telling about heading down tendency, but we need look at which side the figure will be broken through.
1. In the case of breaking the figure downwards, the pair goes to 1.1034 level.
2. On breaking upwards, the pair goes to 1.2065 level.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1233782281_uch4.gif
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EUR/USD
H4 graph
The pair has broken the "diamond" figure ("triangle" figure of the previous forecast - "E-E+" and now it's aimed at "В+" trend line, 1.3220 level, which is the target of the pair. Next, the pair will reach the target of 1.2760 - 1.3800 in the case of "B+" trend line breaking, but first it will need to overcome the resistance at 1.3300. The target of the "diamond" figure lies above 1.3300 level, thus the pair will get over it. The support is currently at 1.2950. Important news - Bernanke's speech is to be released on Tuesday and USA trading balance is to be released on Wednesday. If the market turns inert before those news are published, then there will be a reviving along with extension of the descending trend in USD.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234215785_eu4.gif
GBP/USD
H4 graph
As supposed, the pair had broken the "diamond" figure upwards, it approached "C+" trend line (marked blue in the previous forecast, now it's marked red), 1.4760 level, which eventually has been broken by the pair afterwards. The resistance at the moment is "D+" trend line – the higher bound of the side trend from the daily graph. Returning to the support at 1.4760 is possible now, but after that I'm expecting extension of the ascending trend. Upon "D+" trend line breaking and passing 1.5000 level, the pair will move towards 1.5450, it's a good chance to happen tomorrow.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234215829_gu4.gif
USD/CHF
H4 graph
The pair is in "E-E+" side trend, upon breaking of which ("E+" trend line), it will move towards "K" trend line, 1.3000 level, and possibly towards 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.1655, but there is a chance that the pair's correction will occur a little higher. The ascending correction was provoked by "R" trend line. I'm expecting "E" trend line's breaking and reaching the target of 1.3000 - 1.2000.
Breaking of "triangle" figure was supposed to go downwards as well as upwards in the previous forecast. Eventually the figure had been broken upwards, but that was a false breaking, due to the fact that it was not supported either by eur/usd, or by gbp/usd - the pairs against which the dollar was dropping, not rising. Besides, franc had broken the figure before all important news was released.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234215795_uch4.gif
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H4 graph
The pair didn’t manage to get over "D+" trend line and bounced off it. After that "а-а+" trend was broken, clearing the way for dropping below "С+" trend line. The pair has finished its ascending motion with the breaking of "К-К+" trend. Now the target of dropping is the level of 1.4050, while resistances are at 1.4510 and 1.4630.
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Daily graph
"D+" trend line suppressed the ascending motion. That event was followed by repeated top-down breaking of "С+" trend line. Proceeding from 4-hours graph, the pair is now having the target of lowering at 1.4050. Taking into account that the pair is located above "В-В+" trend, the target level 1.5300 remains actual. Lowering to 1.4050 should be considered correctional; we should expect continuation of the ascending trend from that level with the target at 1.5300.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234382489_gu1.gif
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How to use forecasts based on the "Strategist" trading system
Content:
1. Forecasts update frequency
2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
4. Opening positions
5. Variants of events to develop
6. Designation of trend lines
1. Forecasts update frequency
Forecasts are updated regularly on the basis of relevancy. Forecasts won’t be updated (current forecast remains valid) until the pair will reach targets given in the forecast, or the technical picture will change dramatically.
2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
Forecasts are given over two time frames: H4 and Daily (forecasts over time frames lower than H4 are not given). Forecast relevancy (reaching the target of the pair) over H4 time frame lasts for a period of three to seven days. For Daily time frame this period varies from two weeks to a month (sometimes more).
A strategic target of the pair is given over Daily time frame, and a local target is given over H4 (relative to Daily; H4 time frame represents internal waves of the trend from Daily time frame). Therefore, there are two presentations: a strategic (long-term) and a local one (short-term).
3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
The "Strategist" trading system uses classic trends and figures of technical analysis.
Examples of trends:
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732372_1.gif
Trends are being built basing on trend lines.
Examples of figures:
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732362_2.gif
Figures are being built basing on trend lines, just like trends are.
4. Opening positions
A position is opened when a trend line gets broken (when the pair breaks a trend line and then goes for 30 pips in the same direction). A stop loss is set behind a trend line. Upon breaking of every trend line or trend, a new target is formed, and the market has to reach it.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732386_3.gif
An example of trend breaking:
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732349_4.gif
The breaking of a trend line/trend/figure can be a false one when, after the breaking, the pair repeatedly breaks the same trend line without reaching the pair’s target. In case of the false breaking the forecast becomes irrelevant.
Breaking of trend lines at daily time frames is connected with releases of important news. Sometimes a trend line can be broken before news is released but, as a rule, such breaking proves to be a false one and the true breaking happens after news release.
5. Variants of events to develop
In forecasts multiple variants of events to develop are suggested at once. Variants come true in case of breaking either one or another trend line. Each variant takes place under a specific condition (causal connection), which should be satisfied in order to realize the variant.
An example of forecasting:
GBP/USD pair is in “a-a+” ascending trend and is constrained within the range (1.4700 – 1.4940) between two trend lines: “C+” and “D+”. There are 3 variants of events to develop:
1. Variant: the pair breaks “D+” trend line and heads to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair manages to drop below “D+” trend line after breaking it (indicates a false breaking).
2. Variant: the pair stays in range 1.4700 – 1.4940 between “C+” and “D+” trend lines. Upon bounce off “C+” trend line the pair will head to “D+”, break it and make its way to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case: see Variant 1.
3. Variant: the pair will not manage to break “D+” trend line. After breaking “C+” trend line and then also “a-a+” trend, the pair will head to the target level 1.4050.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair won’t be able to develop a descending motion after breaking “a-a+” trend and it will go up above “a” and “C+” trend lines (higher than level 1.4700).
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732378_5-1.gif
Forecast result:
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732330_5-2.gif
6. Designation of trend lines
Trend lines are designated by letters with only purpose to make it clear for the reader of a forecast which line exactly is described. As a rule, trends at H4 graphs are designated as “a-a+”, at daily graphs as “B-B+”, and at weekly graphs as “C-C+”. The rest of trend lines designations are made arbitrarily.
Trading signals
Trading signals for given forecasts will possibly appear at the site for free access after some time.
RISKS WARNING
Forecasts are not the trading signals! They help to reveal the direction of the market’s motion as well as the market’s future intentions to move along one or another side upon satisfying one or another specific condition. When you trade, rely solely on signals of your trading system; use forecasts only for seeing the market’s prospect and the targets of the market’s motion. The trading radically differs from the forecasting. In the situation when an analyst sees a straightforward motion of the market, a trader can close a number of deals, most of which will probably be unprofitable if a trader will not observe the rules of his or her trading system.
The author of the forecasts is not liable for the results of trading that is guided by offered forecasts.
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FOREXMILLION - forex forecast, forex trading signals
H4 graph
It looks like the pair has intention of breaking the "triangle" figure upwards and going to the level 1.3300.
With the breaking of "а-а+" descending trend, the pair has gained a possibility to test the higher bound of the "triangle" (E+). The breaking of "а-а+" trend is telling that the pair should break "Е+" (if it will be able to go above 1.2890), in its turn that will clear the way to target levels 1.3055 (B+ trend line - the higher bound of the side trend), 1.3165 (F trend line) and to the key level of H4 graph picture - 1.3300.
There is a probability of a correctional bounce off "Е+" trend line to the support level 1.2895, after that an ascending trend should be resumed.
Variants of events to develop:
1. If the pair goes above 1.2890, it will head to 1.3055/1.3165/1.3300.
This scenario is cancelled in case the pair will manage to drop below 1.2870 after passing 1.2890.
2. Upon the bounce off "Е+" trend line (current level is 1.2825) the pair founds a resistance at the level 1.2695 and ascending trend is resumed.
This scenario is cancelled in case the pair will manage to drop below 1.2630.
Supports:
1.2695 / after passing 1.2890 the level 1.2845 will become the support.
Resistances:
1.2825 (current level) / 1.3055 / 1.3165 / 1.3300
Trading recommendations:
1. Buy from 1.2890, stop 1.2770, take 1.2950
2. Buy from 1.2705, stop 1.2630, take 1.2950
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1235311664_eu4.gif
Daily graph
From the technical picture at H4 graph it’s seen that the pair is going to break the "triangle" figure (Е-Е+) upwards. In case it passes the level 1.2890, the figure will be considered broken and the level 1.3820 will become the target of the pair. The old and well-known level 1.3300 will be an important intermediate resistance; upon the reaching of this level a bounce to the support level 1.2890 will be possible, followed by the resuming of ascending trend to the level 1.3820.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1235311710_eu1.gif
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FOREXMILLION - forex forecast, forex trading signals
EUR/USD forecast
H4 graph
The pair is being traded in the "a-a+" half-side half-ascending trend. A trading range 1.2604 - 1.2755 has been formed by numerous resistances from above and supports from below. I can't say that the pair has an ascending intention right now, because the higher bound of the side daily trend - "B+" trend line - is crossing the level 1.2770. This trend line will hold up all ascending attempts until it gets broken.
Analyzing the present picture, three variants of events to develop are seen:
1. continuation of trading in the side trend, in 1.2604 - 1.2755.
2. by breaking the lower bound of "a-a+" trend ("a" trend line) the pair heads to the "Z" trend line - level 1.2430 (if the pair drops below 1.2600).
3. by breaking "B+" trend line the pair heads to the level 1.3110 (if the pair rises above 1.2820).
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1236381821_eu4.gif
Daily graph
The pair is being traded down the "B-B+" side descending trend, which has a potential to carry the market up to the level 1.2320. I can't tell about a clear development of any picture unless the pair exits from this trend by breaking its higher bound "B+". If "B+" will get broken and the pair goes above level 1.2840, then reaching of the support at 1.3300 is guaranteed.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1236381765_eu1.gif
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FOREXMILLION - forex forecast, forex trading signals
EUR/USD
H4 graph
The pair is confidently moving along the ascending trend. Trend’s target is at levels between two resistances: 1.3820 and 1.4000, where "Y" trend line passes. I expect a potential turn from those levels. There are no signs of trend’s turn yet, that’s why ascending motion is confident for now.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1237499623_eu4.gif
Daily graph
If signs of trend’s turn appear, the pair will perform a correction to 1.3300, followed by resuming of the ascending trend targeted at testing the "Y" trend line. In case "Y" trend line will get broken, the figure #44 will be the pair’s next target.
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1237499709_eu1.gif
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FOREXMILLION - forex forecast, forex trading signals
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EUR/USD
H4 graph
The pair had passed the "R" resistance trend line (level 1.3480) and now it's being traded along an ascending trend with the target of growth to level 1.3750. The support is found at level 1.3455; intermediate resistance is at 1.3570. If the pair goes below level 1.3350, an ascending trend is supposed to be replaced by a descending one
Looks trading signals
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1238954128_eu4.gif
Daily graph
An ascending trend having the target of growth to the resistance level 1.3750 had been developed at H4 graph. Upon reaching the stated level, there are 3 scenarios of events to follow:
1. If the pair rises above level 1.3800 (breaks the "Y" trend line), then target 1.4360 will be reached.
2. If the pair bounces off level 1.3750 ("Y" trend line), a "double top" turning figure will be formed having its basis at level 1.3112. Upon the bounce off 1.3750 the following is supposed to happen: "M" trend will get broken, figure's basis level and then the support at 1.3112 will be reached, after that the pair will bounce again and grow to level ~1.3650, then break the "Y" trend line and reach level 1.4360.
3. If after the bounce off 1.3750 and reaching the figure's basis at level 1.3112 the pair goes under this level, it will reach an intermediate support and then the main support at 1.2500 ("U" trend line) - the lower bound of the "triangle" figure from weekly graph
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1238954081_eu1.gif
Weekly graph
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1238954224_eu-w.gif
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FOREXMILLION - forex forecast, forex trading signals
Page 7 of 7« First<567http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/images/misc/menu_open.gif
FXTRENDS
A technical perspective of the US Dollar Index and FX market.
Thursday, April 2, 200904/02: April seasonal patterns
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The month of April has historically been unkind to the US Dollar Index. Over the past seven years, the Greenback has seen gains in April only twice, both times were supported by either Fed tightening, hawkish rate expectations or both. Both seasonal charts shows that on average, the dollar tends to fall throughout the month then bottom out in early May. April also tends to be one of the strongest seasonal months for the DJIA and S&P, both of which have had strong inverse correlations with the US Dollar Index. These seasonal factors alone suggest that a sustained loss of 84.30 (former consolidative resistance) will enable the dollar to test the key 200-day MA.
STRATEGY: SELL USD's
Posted by ............................. at 11:08 AM
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Tuesday, March 31, 20093/31: Yen retreats on Japan's last day of fiscal year
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Posted by ............................. at 11:33 AM
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Friday, March 27, 200903/27 - Probing a key fib & the 100-day MA
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The US Dollar Index has pared recent losses and is now probing a key fibonacci retracement (38.2%) and the 100-day MA. Overbought daily RSI & MACD along with hourly bearish divergence have induced profit-taking in energy (crude oil) & equity markets which have had strong inverse correlations with the Greenback. Dollar bears that had jumped on Geithner's misconstrued comments earlier in the week were further squeezed as the euro suffered it's largest one day drop in more than two months. Bearish comments by a German Fin Min and expectations that the ECB may accept QE policy after all, helped the dollar surge through the 10-day MA and a descending trend line. While FX markets should continue to follow developments in the global equity markets, if the US Index clears the 38.2% retracement/100-day MA, then the 20-day MA and 35-day EMA should provide decent resistance. If this counter-trend rally in the US Index begins to distribute, a sustained loss of 84.30 (former resistance) will expose the 200-day MA.
Posted by ............................. at 12:59 PM
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Thursday, March 19, 200903/19 - DXY collapses on the back of Fed's QE policy
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The US Dollar Index has collapsed as a result of yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve to purchase long-term US Treasuries. Although this significantly nullifies the threat of deflation, the Fed's decision greatly enhances their debt load and will significantly increase the budget deficit. The Greenback's weakness is now approaching a cluster of fibonacci retracements in the 82.25-40 region (the 38.2% retracement of the all-time low to the March high & the 61.8% retracement of the December 2008 low to the March high). Further beneath lies the key psychological 200-day MA. Expect weakness to persist while below the falling 10-day MA & a descending trendline in the mid 85 region.
Posted by ............................. at 1:28 PM
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Wednesday, March 11, 200903/11 - Probing below key 20-day MA
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The US Dollar Index has lost some ground over the past few sessions on the back of the rebound in equity markets. Indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have each eclipsed their 9-day MA's after reversing out of falling wedge patterns, guided by bullish MACD & RSI divergence. The corresponding bearish divergence has triggered Dollar weakness below the November high pivot at 88.46 to close below the 20-day MA. This has enabled the EUR/USD to eclipse the 20-day MA convincingly for the first time in 2009 and signals a reversal for the Greenback that initially targets the 50-day MA near the 86 handle. It will take a sustained rebound back above 88.46 to alter the bearish structure.
LOOK TO SELL (BUY EUR/USD)
Posted by ............................. at 1:12 PM
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Thursday, March 5, 200903/05 - November's high reverts to first support
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The Dollar Index continues to maintain it's uptrend within a rising wedge. Although, daily RSI & MACD demonstrate negative divergence, normally indicative of a reversal, the Greenback remains buoyed by risk aversion and equity market weakness. The next upside target is 89.87, the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear market campaign. Meanwhile, the November high of 88.46 has reverted to support and is now the critical pivot to watch. It will take a convincing break below this key level (roughly 1.2660 EUR/USD) in conjunction with a stock market reversal to divert the market's attention back towards wedge support near 87.00.
Posted by ............................. at 1:45 PM
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Friday, February 27, 200902/27 - Will history repeat itself?
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The US Dollar Index continues its "safe-haven" bid as global equity markets remain under pressure. On Friday, Citigroup announced a plan to convert preferred shares into common stock in an attempt to boost it's tangible capital ratio. Citi's shares plunged due to the dillution of shareholder equity, causing bank stocks and equity markets worldwide to fall. The S&P 500 probed below it's November lows, enabling the Dollar Index to probe it's corresponding November high. This tight correlation has remained strong and is no suprise that both metrics are probing key levels. While it may be premature to call a double bottom for the S&P and a double top for the US Dollar Index, there is a possibility that history could repeat itself . A hint that the Greenback may be distributing or topping, is the formation of a rising wedge or an ending diagnol. This typically bearish pattern often occurs in conjunction with a "throw over" or a false-break of a previous high or low. This occurred to a smaller degree in November when the US Index approached the October high within an ending diagnol pattern, only to marginally break it. The net result was a "throw over" that marked a double top which preceded a dramatic reversal. For this to happen again, the stock market will need to recover from a capitulation type sell-off similarly seen in the November low. Unfortunately, this type of price-action in the equity market has not happened recently. Moreover, the S&P closed February below a key monthly pivot, suggesting possible weakness towards the 700 handle, where a key long-term bull trendline lies. This would equate to Dollar strength towards 90.00. If, however, the S&P can recover and convincingly trade above the November low of 740.61, then the false-break scenario becomes increasingly more likely.
Posted by ............................. at 1:38 PM
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Older Posts
Thursday, February 26, 200902/26 - EUR/USD struggle with 20-day MA continues
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The US Dollar Index was again supported by the 20-day MA, underpinning another test of the key 88 handle. Monday's reaction low highlights rising wedge support (typically bearish) and underscores the Greenback's strength vs the Yen and the EUR/USD's struggle to convincingly clear it's 20-day MA. If the 88 handle is cleared and does not trigger a false-break reversal, the next stop could be the psychological 90.00 level. While the bullish structure remains intact while above wedge support at 86.00, the Dollar stands to lose momentum when the EUR/USD sustains a move above 1.28 (20-day MA).
LOOK TO SHORT (BUY EUR/USD)
Posted by ............................. at 10:32 AM
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Tuesday, February 24, 200902/24 - USD/JPY rally exposes 98.90 yen
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Posted by ............................. at 8:51 AM
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Friday, February 20, 200902/20 - Loses trendline support as overbought RSI weighs
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The US Dollar Index has lost interim trendline support after stalling at the key 88 handle over the last few days. The reversal coincided with fears of US bank nationalization and a headline that the EU is indeed working out a plan to help out the eastern european countries. In thin afternoon trade, the EUR/USD broke out of key trendline resistance while both USD/CHF & USD/JPY lost trendline support. Overbought RSI and MACD bearish divergence correctly identified the Greenback's relapse and as mentioned in prior posts, a sustained loss of 20-day MA support (now near the 86 handle) will shift momentum to the downside, towards the 50-day MA. Meanwhile, if the 88 handle is cleared, the next stop could be the psychological 90.00 level.
LOOK TO SHORT (BUY EUR/USD)
My latest NZD/USD analysis:
http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/nzd%252Fusd%253A-de-ja-vu%2520-18812
Posted by ............................. at 12:55 PM
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Wednesday, February 18, 200902/18 - Probing the 88 handle
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The US Dollar Index is now probing the key 88 handle since breaking out of a bull pennant earlier this week. With daily RSI in such overbought territory and MACD demonstrating possible bearish divergence, a possible corrective relapse looms. As mentioned in prior posts, it will take a convincing loss of the 20-day MA to alter the bullish structure.
TAKE PROFIT ON LONG POSITION (SHORT EUR/USD)
My latest NZD/USD analysis:
http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/nzd%2Fusd%3A-falling-wedge-forming-again-18744
Posted by ............................. at 12:55 PM
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Tuesday, February 17, 200902/17 - Bull pennant breakout refocuses the 88.00 region
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The US Dollar Index has broken out of a bull pennant on the back of the Euro's weakness overnight, which stemmed from Moody's downgrade warning of East European banks. This has enabled the Greenback to approach the key 88 handle, near the key fibonacci retracment (78.6% of 92.58-70.49). While, daily RSI indicate a possible corrective relapse, only a convincing loss of the 20-day MA will shift focus back to the downside.
REMAIN LONG (SHORT EUR/USD)
Posted by ............................. at 10:38 AM
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Wednesday, February 11, 200902/11 - Approaching pennant resistance
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_fiN3T7eeLFI/SZMdNTF7wDI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/CWkBXDaVgFE/s400/021109.bmp
The US Dollar Index has rebounded off the 20-day MA and is now trading within a bull pennant, typically a trend continuation pattern. Clearing 86.200 (pivot & pennant resistance) will expose the 88 handle, the level which capped last autumn's rally. A convincing loss of the 20-day MA and pennant support is required to shift focus back to the downside.
LOOK TO BUY (SELL EUR/USD) {email for entry/exit points}
For my latest Forexpros.com analysis.....
http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/nzd%252Fusd%253A-remains-supported-by-corrective-trendline-18239
Posted by ............................. at 10:45 AM
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Tuesday, February 10, 200902/10 - Risk Aversion reinvigorates the Greenback
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_fiN3T7eeLFI/SZHy2GFdgBI/AAAAAAAAAJI/DCYF-t9vdv4/s400/02+10+09.bmp
The US Dollar Index has reversed recent losses including a brief loss of 20-day MA support due to a fresh bout of risk aversion. The uncertainty and lack of specifics by Treasury Secretary Geithner's bank bailout plan has spoiled the market's appetite for risk, once again buoying the US Dollar and Treasury prices. Also, rumors of Russian debt postponement has cast a shadow on the Euro. If 86.200 (pivot & pennant resistancce) can now be convincingly cleared, a move towards the 88 handle cannot be ruled out. A sustained loss of the 20-day MA is now needed to refocus the 50-day MA.
[STRATEGY] TOOK PROFIT ON LONG POSITION, LOOK TO SELL EUR/USD (email for entry/exit points)
For my latest Forexpros.com analysis.....
http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/nzd%20usd:-loses-ascending-trendline-support-18116
Posted by ............................. at 12:18 PM
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Monday, February 9, 200902/09 - Loses 20-day MA support
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_fiN3T7eeLFI/SZBq4296rfI/AAAAAAAAAI4/diQS-8eivQ4/s400/02+09+09.bmp
The Dollar Index failed to clear the 86.20 pivot (78.6% of the 88.25-77.69 decline, underpinning today's loss of 20-day MA support. With risk aversion easing globally and the postponement of the Treasury's bank rescue plan, the Greenback has fallen on it's back foot as expected, enabling a number of currencies to break through key resistance vs the US Dollar. If this trend continues, the Dollar Index should next test the mid 83 region, where a key fibonacci retracement and the 50-day MA lie. Once again, only a convincing break above 86.20 will shift the outlook back to the upside .
[STRATEGY] REMAIN SHORT (LONG EUR/USD) (email for entry/exit points)
Posted by ............................. at 9:22 AM
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Friday, February 6, 200902/06 - The 20-day MA holds the key
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The Dollar Index has once again probed 86.20, a key fib (78.6% of the 88.25-77.69 decline). This time, however, daily studies such as MACD & RSI indicate waning momentum. Although, the overall structure remains bullish while above 20-day MA support, the Greenback stands to lose with risk aversion easing. Risk appetite's "technical" shift can be seen by the performance of the Yen and Global equity markets over the last few sessions. If this trend continues, the US Dollar Index should break below the 20-day MA (now at the 85 handle) and immediately test the 50-day MA. If, however, a rally can convincingly break above 86.20, then all bets are off.
LOOK TO SELL (BUY EUR/USD) (email for entry/exit points)
For my latest Forexpros.com analysis.....
http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/nzd:-falling-wedge-break-out-probes-the-20-day-ma-17902
Posted by ............................. at 8:56 AM
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Thursday, February 5, 200902/05 - Check out FOREXPROS.com for my latest
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Reuter's quoted me yesterday regarding a technical shift in risk appetite. Today's follow-thru only confirmed what I said yesterday. The USD/JPY cleared the 20-day MA today and the market has taken notice. Also contributing was half a yard (90.00 strike) USDJPY option expiry just minutes prior. Here is my latest view on the Kiwi (NZD/USD)......
http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/positive-divergence-to-buoy-a-falling-wedge-break-out-17826
Posted by ............................. at 10:14 AM
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Tuesday, January 6, 200901/06 - COMPLETES A-B-C CORRECTION
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_fiN3T7eeLFI/SWOyWkG6x2I/AAAAAAAAAIg/-nKEADemQcw/s400/01+06+09.bmp
The Dollar Index has completed an A-B-C correction off the December low. A key fibonacci retracement (61.8% of 87.70-77.69) has provided resistance after Monday's clearance of the 100-day MA. Although daily studies indicate more upside potential, the latest rally has been on weak volume and open interest and thus represents a mere correction to the December down-move. If this corrective (fourth) wave remains below 84.71 (second wave base), then a .786 Fibonacci Extension will target my original fifth wave objective at obvious support near the 76 handle. The first obstacle below will be 82.00, a corrective trendline and the 20-day MA.
Strategy Summary: LOOK TO BUY EUR/USD
Posted by ............................. at 11:29 AM
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2008 POSTS
For previous posts in 2008 visit my old blog
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Hello Elliott Wave traders.
GOLD
We were recently talking about possible gold lows on Friday, if the dollar strength would be able to continue. Well, this one could be very tricky right now, especially as we have already seen near-term dollar highs on Monday against the major currencies. Euro made the fifth wave on the downside, aussie also, and swissy on the upside. Temporary dollar bulls could be looking to switch sides it seems, and this is the reason why we labeled possible waves I and II or A and B on the chart below. It is better to stay away on this one for some time, to see how market reacts to this critical period of trade; above the trend-line and below the 838.00 resistance. Any break to the upside should lead us much higher; in that case 838.00 should react as a support in the future, in a ‘resistance turns to support’ move. Traders should also pay their attention to the black, lower trend-line; any move below it could lead to new lows very fast. That is why we are saying to let this one play out; there is enough room either way to wait for market momentum and confirmation.
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/gold.jpg
Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.
e-mail: trader@trading-fx.com
Last edited by EWtrader : Aug 28, 2008 at 11:35.
Hello Elliott Wave traders.
Gold went higher yesterday, getting above $840 before quickly returning to $825 support. There were many overlaps in the last few days, so no clear trend at all is seen. Small profits are the winners here. There is also something similar on the aussie chart; prices just hit the trend line mentioned yesterday. We can expect some buyers in this area with stops below the trend line (look to the charts posted from yesterday).
For today we prepared two possible wave counts on the dollar index chart, which should be the right one to look at to find the right way on some major pair moves. We have also included the wave count on cable which is showing us possible bottom, and higher prices in the next few trading days.
USDX
Below is our first triangle wave count, where the sub-waves are 3-3-3-3-3. This count is valid if the prices continue to new highs in the next week or two. On the chart we labeled the first zig-zag in wave A and also in wave B, which has ended above the wave three high. In this case will this be running triangle. We labeled the current live structure with red square. If we are on the right track, then we should see prices around the lower trend line probably in the next week. Price should not move lower off wave A (76.00), otherwise it will this wave count be invalidated. For this case we made another wave count.
Basic chart
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/running%20triangle.jpg
Live chart
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/usx1.jpg
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Hello Elliott Wave traders.
OIL
We did not complicate the wave count on this chart; we are just looking for the bottom of the correction in red wave 4. The most interesting thing on this one is the significant resistance around $121 per barrel. Prices bounced from it several times recently; this resistance could be the key for a move lower in this, or next week if fundamentals align. Right now we a have really triangle in process which should make another move up to test resistance again.
The short targets are sitting on the black weekly trend line support, which held prices since the start of 2007. Traders that are still waiting on the reversal should pay their attention to another move up to the 120.00 resistance, which could be good set-up for move lower. Otherwise they should wait on a break through the lower blue trend-line before they get involved. As you know, these are just couple of technical reasons for possible move in the next few days or weeks. Do not forget that Hurricane Gustav could also push Oil prices higher in the next few days as it continues to disrupt U.S. refining.
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/oil(1).jpg
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USD/JPY
This pair has been in consolidation over the last two weeks. Prices tested the 300 day moving average several times in the last week and bounced lower on Friday after the stronger yen moves. If the double zig-zag is not over yet, then we should see another move to new highs to make this (Y) complete. In this case we should be in the A)-B)-C) correction of the red wave B right now. It looks as though prices may trade lower in the near future; we are talking about the 50% retrace of wave A, which is sitting on the lower support line of the bull channel around 107.00. We can expect some traders with the positions against this trend line, to try push the dollar back up buoyed by the positive equity moves that Europe has put on the U.S. futures outlook. The stochastic indicator is also showing a possible move in to the “over-bought” on that read area before market will move sustainably higher again.
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Chart_of_Day/usd-jpy%20(1)(1).jpg
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USD/CAD
We are still following this pair, especially today when we have the Interest Rate statement from Canada. Traders should pay attention on this info before they make any moves on the market. We have the one hour Canadian chart, with the current prices in wave v) after the triangle in the fourth wave. We might expect prices up in the next few hours, around the Fibonacci resistances at 38.2%. The market could trade lower from here if the BOC decision indicates that the economy is robust enough for a higher move on rates over the next quarter. The RSI is also signaling for possible moves lower in the future, so any good numbers for Canada could bring us below the temporary trend line support, which could be also the signal to sell U.S dollars. That however is against the near-term trend, and against forex and oil market momentum right now.
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/cad.jpg
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USD/CAD
We are still following this pair, especially today when we have the Interest Rate statement from Canada. Traders should pay attention on this info before they make any moves on the market. We have the one hour Canadian chart, with the current prices in wave v) after the triangle in the fourth wave. We might expect prices up in the next few hours, around the Fibonacci resistances at 38.2%. The market could trade lower from here if the BOC decision indicates that the economy is robust enough for a higher move on rates over the next quarter. The RSI is also signaling for possible moves lower in the future, so any good numbers for Canada could bring us below the temporary trend line support, which could be also the signal to sell U.S dollars. That however is against the near-term trend, and against forex and oil market momentum right now.
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/cad.jpg
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Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.
Aud/Usd A Turning Point?
Prices on this pair are trading in a very critical support area right now. The market is threatening some strong Fibonacci levels just below 0.8200 so traders are expecting the turning point here especially because of this two year long support trend line. On this pair, we have very similar situation as on the Eur/Usd, we should pay close attention on today’s closed weekly candle. If the prices after today’s trading hours will be above the 0.8200 level then we can expect a huge bounce in the coming weeks. As you know this pair is also highly correlated with the commodities, so in this case we can also expect a bounce on the Oil.
http://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Chart_of_Day/aud-usd.jpg
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U.S. $ index
Here we have the updated chart from Friday, when we discussed the possible bounce lower this week. Prices are already down in the same area as previous wave IV is, around 76.00 levels. Short-term traders should already have booked their profits in this zone, or trailed stops lower to protect gains. The market can easily make a small bounce to the upside from the current prices, especially after the touching the 50% retracement Fibonacci zone. If a bounce in this area is the case, then we can expect prices to move up into the resistance zone around 77.25. This possible move will also have an impact on some other currency pairs; on the Usd/Cad for example.
http://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/us-index(1).jpg
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Hello guys
The euro dropped very powerfully yesterday as the dollar became stronger against a lot of other currencies. The main reason for dollar strength in the last few days is the discussion of the resurrection of the Bailout rescue plan. As traders get their confidence back after the U.S. Senate approved the $700 billion bill. In this case, traders can expect new lows on the Eur/Usd very soon. Below you will find the updated Eur/Usd chart and the new Usd/Jpy chart.
Eur/Usd
The market made an amazing bounce yesterday from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level down in to the current wave v) of the black iii). Interestingly, the market is still pushing it lower in the last hour or two, but the prices should slow down as the support area gets hit as shown on the chart below. We are talking about the yearly 1.3882 low, which has recently been broken. If this does not hold then we can expect prices to move lower somewhere around the 1.3830 area. You will notice the Fibonacci support area that we discussed yesterday. Traders should be out of any open short positions or at least have locked in profits. From the Elliott wave view, we should see a pullback in black wave iv in the near term, especially if we consider that the extension wave iii could be completed very fast. Simple zig-zag move may be the case.
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/eur-usd6.jpg
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Hello Elliott Wave traders.
Euro hit all targets on the way down yesterday, and even pushed quite well below the previous low of 1.3882. The reason for this move was probably commodity driven since we are seeing Oil threaten in the area of $90 per barrel again. New lows look pretty close right now. Nothing special on Usd/Jpy yesterday so buy positions should still be looked at as long as the market will be trading in the area below the red trend line as discussed yesterday. We are expecting one of the most important releases today for this month in the U.S.. The Nonfarm payrolls are on the schedule today so all eyes should be focused on the dollar. The forecast is not good so maybe we can expect some changes in the market today since we have seen strong dollar throughout the week.
Eur/Usd
Below you can see that we updated the wave count, discussed yesterday. The market is still trading extremely bearish and there are still no signs to indicate the turning point. All we can see are small pullbacks which give traders a lot of opportunities for short positions on the way down. Yesterday we mentioned a support area around 1.3830 and we can see that prices are currently dancing around this level, which could be the sign for the possible correction waves in the small blue wave 4. Traders should also notice that price bounced from the 1.3882 area which was the previous yearly low. It seems like the 1.3882 area could be very strong resistance for further lows. If this is the case then the next price targets could be between 1.3670-1.3700 where we can see some Fibonacci extension levels. However, with the volatility from today’s releases, the time may not present itself today to trade. Care must be taken. If the prices do not create any new lows today then yesterday’s bottom 1.3746 will be the low of black wave iii.
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/eur-usd7.jpg
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EUR/USD
Yesterday we mentioned the possible low on the euro at 1.3549, and whether the black wave v would be equal in distance of the 355 pips. The market pushed the euro a little bit lower while the dollar was stronger also against the other currencies. The prices hit the support area at the 50% projection levels, which was the next target after the 1.3549. If we look on the wave counts now, then we can say that the black wave v of the blue III should be completed with the prices at the yearly lows. Especially if we consider the fact that prices tested the lows around 50% several times on Monday and then bounced back up quite strongly. If we are correct about this one, then the next step should be the break through the upper side of the channel which move could the wave a; the first wave of the possible zig-zag move which could be in process right now. Traders should stay aside here and wait for more data. Also keep in mind the Mr. Bernanke speech which is on the list today.
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/Trade_Desk_Thoughts/Elliott_Wave/eur-usd%209.jpg
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Thursday, January 8, 2009GBPJPY - 9 Jan 09
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SWY30eQ6bAI/AAAAAAAAAI4/FoJN06lRIFg/s400/gbpjpy+-+9+jan+09.gif
Since the white counting invalid. I'm just focus for alt count orange. As you seen market has complete wave 2/b (yellow) (recolor from orange) and will be perform to complete the wave 3/c. Please wait for next analysis either this wave would make huge movement for wave 3 (magenta). Have a nice day!
Posted by hymns at 9:13 AM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpjpy elliot wave analysis
Wednesday, January 7, 2009GBPJPY - 8 Jan 09
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SWWcS7OAShI/AAAAAAAAAIo/lKlLDMw10Wk/s400/gbpjpy+-+8+jan+09.gif
As you seen yesterday market has perform to complete wave c (white) and also wave 4 (yellow). Now we have 2 situation here. Either market to climbing to complete wave 3 (white) or wave 2/b (orange). Good luck!
Posted by hymns at 10:24 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpjpy elliot wave analysis
Tuesday, January 6, 2009GBPJPY - 7 Jan 09
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SWQmDedni_I/AAAAAAAAAIg/b6kDWFQnR5A/s400/gbpjpy+-+7+jan+09.gif
I'm quite long doest post GJ market due waiting price breakout the triangle. Here the analysis for 1 hour timeframe. Have a nice day!
Posted by hymns at 7:09 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpjpy elliot wave analysis
EURUSD - 7 Jan 09
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SWQcJ3HcuoI/AAAAAAAAAIY/Cku5oFXmbpE/s400/eurusd+-+7+jan+09.gif
As you see, market has been perform complete the sub wave iii (cyan) i'm looking for complete sub wave iv and then also sub wave v (cyan) before make other post for bullish market.
Posted by hymns at 7:04 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, eurusd elliot wave analysis
Sunday, January 4, 2009USDCHF - 5 Jan 08
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SWGdTMYvClI/AAAAAAAAAIQ/IpuqDRTfmYg/s400/usdchf+-+5+jan+09.gif
Happy new year! I'm quite busy to update my blog right now. I've a few programming job need to finish out. Here my 4 hour elliot analysis for USDCHF. Market will going down for a while to make a retracement before complete the wave c (yellow) under wave 4 (magenta)
Posted by hymns at 9:39 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, usdchf elliot wave analysis
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Wednesday, December 31, 2008EURUSD - 31 Dec 08
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SVuSHURCWWI/AAAAAAAAAII/Srkac1j_15M/s400/eurusd+-+31+dec+08.gif
Quite busy last week there no update for my blogs. Here latest eurusd analysis next movement. Happy trading!
Posted by hymns at 7:37 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, eurusd elliot wave analysis
Thursday, December 18, 2008EURUSD - 19 Dec 08
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUsG0XC5aRI/AAAAAAAAAIA/o0BtRebUjes/s400/eurusd+-+19+dec+08.gif
Currently market has been complete sub wave iii (yellow) and price has been touch the first target of retracement level (orange) now i'm still waiting either retracement will go to fib retracement 32.8% (pink) or not. You can make buy limit at fib (pink & green). Good luck!
Posted by hymns at 6:28 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
GBPUSD - 19 Dec 08
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUsEyQdfy3I/AAAAAAAAAH4/JG6gMKGgXQ4/s400/gbpusd+-+19+dec+08.gif
Good morning everyone! My post now hit. Now this time to bring your family go for holiday. Good luck!
Posted by hymns at 4:25 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpusd elliot wave analysis
GBPUSD - 18 Dec 08
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUrpI-r_KcI/AAAAAAAAAHo/onruyDyiUTg/s400/gbpusd+-+18+dec+08.gif
As we see all sub wave now hit. Currently price move to complete the wave c (white) for sub wave b (yellow). Here i'm place pending order for sub wave c (yellow) to co complete the wave 4 (magenta). It about 2000 pip for this post. Have a nice trade
Posted by hymns at 12:21 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpusd elliot wave analysis
Wednesday, December 17, 2008GBPUSD - 17 Dec 08 Update
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUroX3mcUHI/AAAAAAAAAHg/l0QZRnH-Uls/s400/gbpusd+-+17+dec+08+-+update+.gif
Price has been hit my tp, now as see the progress to complete sub wave a (white) under sub wave b (yellow). Good luck!
Posted by hymns at 9:16 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpusd elliot wave analysis
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Tuesday, December 16, 2008GBPJPY - 17 Dec 08
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUhpxuNdrbI/AAAAAAAAAHQ/PRnaSTtiyxc/s400/gbpjpy+-+17+dec+08.gif
I'm still waiting for price complete wave a (white). Currently this pair moving quite slow rite now. so bored.
Posted by hymns at 6:53 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpjpy elliot wave analysis
GBPUSD - 17 Dec 08
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUhJT8sfInI/AAAAAAAAAHI/i0HpZ0XOCoQ/s400/gbpusd+-+17+dec+08.gif
Our 1st target is now hit. I'm still hold the long position to make sure either price will moving up for the second target or not. I'm also ready to make a short position for wave b (yellow) once retracement shown.
Posted by hymns at 4:34 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpusd elliot wave analysis
EURUSD - 17 Dec 08
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUhGxZnKn0I/AAAAAAAAAHA/1J7Kj6Bqy_g/s400/eurusd+-+17+dec+08.gif
Since the price has been pass wave 1/a (magenta) i recount the wave back and make some counting changing from wave 1,2,3 (magenta) to wave a,b,c (magenta) and also recount wave 1,2 (yellow) to wave 1,2 (magenta) please check new analysis chart to make a decision. Good luck
Posted by hymns at 4:23 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, eurusd elliot wave analysis
Monday, December 15, 2008GBPUSD - 16 Dec 08
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUdPIfIbtJI/AAAAAAAAAG4/DwxSR3XG_O8/s400/gbpusd+-+16+dec+08.gif
Our target almost close. Please ignore small retracement & secure your current order if any previous post.
Posted by hymns at 9:31 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpusd elliot wave analysis
EURUSD - 16 Dec 08
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUc65Uv2YpI/AAAAAAAAAGo/yHDU-u9WMAc/s400/eurusd+-+16+dec+08.gif
Price already at the sub wave iii (white) please wait for reversal/retracement signal if you want enty for sub wave iv (white) or you can hold you position for complete sub wave c (yellow) & wave 4 (magenta)
Posted by hymns at 8:57 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, eurusd elliot wave analysis
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Friday, December 12, 2008USDJPY - 12 Dec 08
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUIe7czCQnI/AAAAAAAAAGg/kf52fopOf0g/s400/usdjpy+-+12+dec+08.gif
Currently we are waiting sub wave v (white) & wave 5 (yellow) complete till get bullish bias for moving sub wave a (yellow). So be careful for any continues down trend.
Posted by hymns at 12:20 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, usdjpy elliot wave analysis
Thursday, December 11, 2008GBPJPY - 12 Dec 08
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_m_ykaTvOMdE/SUINNZ_0SoI/AAAAAAAAAF8/44aDmITm_s4/s400/gbpjpy+-+12+dec+08.gif
I'm looking for bullish momentum to complete sub wave v (white) to complete sub wave v (yellow) and complete wave 3 (magenta). Under this situation sub wave v (white) may go further down to complete this major wave 3 (magenta)
Posted by hymns at 5:54 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpjpy elliot wave analysis
EURUSD - 12 Dec 08
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_P_Ch5FZYDE4/SUHDRQ7KBFI/AAAAAAAAAF8/SEAu6vVZCX4/s400/eurusd+-+12+dec+08.gif
Currently sub wave iii (white) is almost complete. Beware there is another small retracement on sub wave iii (white) to complete sub wave iii (white). Please hold your buy order until it complete sub wave iii (white).
Posted by hymns at 5:49 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, eurusd elliot wave analysis
GBPUSD - 12 Dec 08
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_P_Ch5FZYDE4/SUHCmfHw9CI/AAAAAAAAAF0/_WleF07dpfE/s400/gbpusd+-+12+dec+08.gif
In this moment i'm looking for bullish to complete sub wave c (white) on sub wave a (yellow). There may have another 5 sub wave to complete wave c (white)
Posted by hymns at 5:45 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, gbpusd elliot wave analysis
USDCAD - 12 DEC 08
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_P_Ch5FZYDE4/SUHBi4vUcQI/AAAAAAAAAFs/lRzJWk-ZCy4/s400/usdcad+-+12+dec+08.gif
I'm looking for sub v (yellow) to complete wave 5 (magenta). Now expecting price to move sub wave i (white)
Posted by hymns at 5:25 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Labels: elliot wave analysis, usdcad ew analysis
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ES & EC Futures Analysis Daily SP and Euro Emini Futures Analysis
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Monday Intranight Market Analysis[*]Written by admin[*]Posted April 6, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Update 9:14 pm EST: GAME TIME , GO MSUUpdate 9:07pm EST: 1.3374 is a short ambush on the Euro, looks like first high probability short entry opp.
Good Evening Traders,
after resistance at 833.25 ambush from globex highs ES has pulled back and sees like it has formed a short term double top at that level, with target of that double top being exactly 50% ambush long fom the daily lows at the bottom of channel in place from the lows. Keep an eye on the chanel support and 826.5 level on the way down:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/esovernight1.png
Euro is now trading inside the ambush zone of last week’s run after breaking 1.3349 50% line earlier in the session.
Good luck and good trading to all
Vlad
Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Intraday
Monday April 6 Market Summary[*]Written by admin[*]Posted at 4:48 pm
Hey Traders,
another of false hope for the bears, closing at session highs and trading as many as 15 pts above the daily low, putting in a daily doji:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/esd.pngES was trading as high as 848 in pre-market, which would have resulted in the open above the trendline, which seemed rather unlikely. ES traded into Thursday’s gap and the made a new high $tick of the day while stll at the lows which marked trend reversal perfectly followed by some green 2500tick candles and new uptrend channel that has not been broken all the way into the close. Another factor behind the strong close:
On the upside besides the November - January highs trendline there is not much resistance on the way up. On the way down here are some short term support levels:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/100k1.pngOn the way down expected resistance is gap fill as well as 50% retracement of the move up in 809-810 area. After that it would be 23.6% retracement of the whole rally at 800.25, also great psychological level. It is not out of question tha twe could see retracement of 38% or 773.5 and still resuming higher.
Trend rotations on 100k contract charts have been working great lately, and had another great signal today.
——————
Euro came close to 1.3349 50% retracement of the recent rally and bounced. Euro is expected to trade in 1.3349 - 1.3469 range. Retracement to 1.3469 and back down to 1.335 area would result in completion of head and shoulers patter, the target of which would be retest of multimonth lows on the Euro:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/eurohs2.png
——
Gold has a near 3% down day after recently breaking some significant support levels and has extended further into oversold territory with levels not seen since 700 low. There are also few support /resistance lines to watch as well as 855.3 which is 50% retracement the move from yearly highs.
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/gold.png
Thats about it for today’s summary, if you find information on this blog helpful feel free to tell your trader friends about it, you can also follow EsEcFutures.com on twitter for intraday TA updated @ http://twitter.com/esecfutures
Thanks for visiting
Vlad
Comments
Filed under: Daily, EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Gold (GC)
Monday April 6 Intraday Market Analysis[*]Written by admin[*]Posted at 9:12 am
Update Cash Close: good day overall, check back for daily updates and significant levels later on, feel free to follow on twitter and spread the word if you find information on this blog useful.
Update 3:58pm eST: that ambush finally tagged, have been waiting in line to short it since $tick hod around the lows, risk free trade, we shall see what it does.
Update 3:50pm EST: 10 minutes till cash close and es has just reach first upside target with huge level of 833.25, bears just cant seem to catch a break.
Update 3:35pm EST: Al from the lows now 824.5 still around bottom of the channel
Update 3:24 pm EST: Al from lows is now 824.25 also bottom of the channel
Update 3:21pm EST; 831.5 daily highs and 833.25 AS from globex highs are withing reach. 100k chart is putting in second green candle, possible trend change. Channel is still being respected
Update 3:15 pm est: rather uneventful last hour so far. Watch 823.5 ambush from the daily lows, also at the bottom of channel
Update 3pm EST: Watching the following channel for clues as long with previously mentioned targets:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/channel.png
Update 2:52pm EST: ES breaking out, upside targets still 831.5 and 833.25 ambush zone, 2500 tick is green again
Update, 2:45pm EST: last hour madness coming up soon, ES still stuck in ambush consolidation range, Euro and Gold are tired from hard day of work, hourly 60m, 100k, 2500t are all pointing down for now, of course considering recent 20pt/20min moves in last hour that doesnt mean much
Update 2:10pm EST:pierced 61% line at 826.75, next upside target 831.5
822.75 is AL on the downside
Update 1:54 pm EST: Bullish roadmap, shall the bullish run continue, bulls will need to get this past 825 daily ambush short, 831.5 session highs and lastly 833.25 ambush zone from globex highs. Currently the largest green trend time frame is 2500 tick, see screenshot:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/2009-04-06_1353esbeardefense.png
Update 1:47pm EST: ES is back at 825 daily ambush in high tick
Update 1:36pm EST: looking at possible head and shoulders scenario on the euro. Retrace to 1.3465 would complete the right shoulder, target of the pattern if successful is 1.3139 or roughly the retest of recent low.
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/eurohs1.png
Update 1:12pm EST: 2500 tick trend put in 3 green bars, as ES is trading up to 825 daily 50%
break above 826.75 makes retest of globex ambush at 833.25 likely. If successful 61% target of 825 ambush is Thursday Gap fill.
Update 12:55pm EST: new high $tick of the day while trading at the lows, could signal trend change, still watching 825
Update 12:7pm EST: considering current low holds Trading hours only daily 50% is 825.
Update 12:43pm est: 100k trend keeping on the right side of the trend once again, looking for reversal signals inside the gap at least on 2500k tick chart to consider long positions
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/2009-04-06_1240_100kmonday.png
Update 12:26 EST: More new lows for ES emini without confirmation by $Tick that it could be intermediate term low. ES is currently in no mans land inside of the gap with all trend charts pointing down.
Euro looks like a bear flag, yet is right above 1.3348 ambush long from the recent lows.
Update Noon EST: ES is now trading within the Thursday gap all trends are red, Euro is apporaching 1.3348 ambush long from the lows of the move. Recent low on ES was not marked by new low Tick.
Update 10:48am EST: ES trading up to 827.5 short ambush, watch for break above 828.5 to consider trend change
Update 10:43am EST: euro traded in 1.3387-1.304 fib confluence zone and found support, if that should fail watch 1.3348 level as 50% retracement and previous resistance that should become support.
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/2009-04-06_1043ec.png
Update 10:32am EST: Friday’s lows tested with new low tick of the day , could see a short term bounce here. Also watching 827.5 short ambush for further direction
Update 10:26am EST: Euro approaching 1.3387-1.3403 Fib confluence support zone
Update 10:16am EST: support to the downside expected at 823, see image below
Update 10:09am EST: ES 835 is half gap fill, 836.5 AS
Update 10:04am EST: 1.3507 on EC euro emini is 50% retracement form the highs, should see some resistance there
ES 836.5 is ambush short from Globex highs
Update 9:51aM EST:
If euro break current lows, next support level at 1.3387-1.3403 Fib confluence zone
ES is looking rather week, waiting on retest of Friday’s low for a clue on further direction or for $tick to start new bullish trend
Good Morning Traders,
some wild trading overnight, yet pretty predictable. After gapping up over long term daily trendline ES emini could not hold and pulled back to 833.75 ambush where it tagged it to a tick and bounced for 13 points, and then it started rolling over into US open.
Looks like we have H&S forming on smaller time frame, so watch for retracement to back to the ambush zone to complete the right shoulder:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/eshs.png
The target of this formation is Gap fill and 50% retracement from Wednesday’s lows at 810.75 to the tick.
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/gapfill.png
If this does start to play out expect some support at 823 on the downside:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/2009-04-06_0925-8229.png
Good Luck and Good Trading this week
Vlad
Whats next for Gold?[*]Written by admin[*]Posted April 5, 2009 at 11:56 pm
Good Evening Gold Traders,
looks like Gold broke some significant technical levels and is breaking down, down over $20 on the night as I type this. Bears should be careful at these levels, as it seems that some support levels are not too far down from here.
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/golddaily.png 855.3 is 50% retracement from multi-year lows in October to the recent March highs, there are also 2 trendlines in play right in that area.
Another sign to be cautious is that gold is at oversold levels not seen since December and Overall multi-year lows in October. No particular reason to cover the shots just yet, but initiating new longer term short positions as it gets closer to 860s might be risky.
Cheers
Vlad
Comments
Filed under: Daily, Gold (GC), Weekly
Sunday April 5th Intranight Analysis[*]Written by admin[*]Posted at 6:07 pm
Update 11:34pm EST:
Gold now at multi month lows and also at 50% retracement from December lows - Feb highs
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/gc.png
Update 10:51pm EST:
Gold is now at multi-month low, last print 878.8 on June contract
ES is staying strong trading within a buck of highs
Update 9:17pm EST:
Euro is trading back into the big Ambush zone on the daily charts, see weekly euro analysis for expected resistance levels
Update 9:12pm EST:
Gold is now down over $10 on the overnight session, some major technical damage being done.
Update 8:57pm EST:
If no new high is made watch 836.75 (also overnight low @ 836.5) to provide some support.
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/2009-04-05_2056.png
Update 8:19pm EST:
Nikkei up 2%+ in opening minutes!
Update 7:07pm EST:
Considering 848 will remain the high, 838.75 will be first significant ambush long, with a minor one at 843.25. I am currently short with a rather wide stop into the open. hard to believe we will open above that trendline on the weekly charts, have seen stranger things happen though.
Update 6:38 EST:
Looks like some stops got hit above previous high
Update 6:31pm EST:
ES turned positive, and is now 0.5 away from the high of the rally at 844.5
that changes the parameters of the ambush zone from initial update
Hey Traders,
few minutes after the open ES is trading down 1.5 pts, on further pullback watch 836 ambush zone to determine further direction.
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/essunday.png
Also, dont forget that we are very close to the daily trendline connecting November and January highs, which should act as resistance on the upside:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/esdaily-2.png
Euro gapped up trading +0.060 on the night above Thursday high, with next expected resistance expected at ambush range expansion, see weekly euro analysis post.
Good trading to all
Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Gold (GC), Intraday
Key Levels on EC / Euro[*]Written by admin[*]Posted at 5:38 pm
Good Afternoon traders,
last week euro has traded very nicely in respect to the fibs with few long term ambushes being hit to a tick.
Here is a look at Euro Dailys
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/ecdaily.pngEuro remains in ambush consolidation zone with 200 day moving average now in the short ambush zone.
Ambush range expansions have been working very well in the futures markets recently, for example:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/eurorangeexpansion.png
Here are key levels to watch for next week:
http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/euro2500share.pngAfter founding support at fib consolidation level at 1.3364 euro made a nice retracement and will be retesting 1.3518 highs this week. If Euro breaks above those highs there are 2 major overhead resistance levels:
- 1.3595-1.3615 is 23.6% range expansion of two ambushes from the confluence where euro bounced, those levels would also be the second test of the big short ambush zone on the daily chart.
- 1.3720-1.3769 will be a HUGE level for the euro, as that would not only be 61% range expansion consolidaotin, frequent reversal point, but also double top with multi-month highs on the euro with 200 day moving average being right in that area.
On the way down euro should find support at the following levels:
- 1.3429 - very short term support at 50% retracement of Friday’s move (please not that if Euro trade above 1.3495 before pulling back that level will be different
- 1.3355-1.3364 - re-test of ambush consolidation zone where EC futures found support on Friday.
- 1.3317 - another ambush consolidation of the recent euro upmove
- 1.31 - big level ofeuro re-testing ambush zone of the late March rally
Good luck and good trading to all this week
Vlad
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