Posted on January 19, 2009 at 9:51 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Hello Again !
We certainly did receive our “Breakout” of the Range we had discussed in the Previous Post, so let’s see if we continue in Price appreciation…or pullback to our “Cluster” Support levels with the Fibonacci’s and Major 1.1150 Support.
Here is the Hourly view…so give it a click.
(Post-Time is 14:50 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/swissy-hourly-1-19.gif
We’ll check back again later in the day, and see how our Euro/Swissy correlation looks together as Price progresses along…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: correlation, euro, swissy, USD/CHF
A Sedate and Quiet Week…So Let’s Go Skiing!
Posted on January 18, 2009 at 21:59 in Uncategorized by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Monday to All !
With a quiet Data Point week for the U.S., the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday today, and the Barack Obama Presidential Inauguration tomorrow…I thought we would go for a nice cool Ski Trip in Switzerland…so let’s have a look at the Swissy!
“CVJ…What…You are not going to the Inauguration?….What happened?…Did they lose your Ticket?…hee hee hee”… I can hear the CVJ Fan Club Guys say…
”How did your hometown Arizona Cardinals make it to the Super Bowl, anyway???”, they grumble…
My answer is the same as in Trading:
“Always Expect the Unexpected!”….. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
OK…grab your Gear and let’s hit the Swiss slopes!
I have always liked the “linear” nature of the Swissy, and with its’ tight correlation to the Euro…these two Units do compliment each other.
But…as I have said many times before…these Correlations are not exact and constant!
So always be mindful of this as you work with these two Pairs, and consider them on their own singular merit and their respective Economies behind them.
Analysis largely on the Charts again today, so be sure to click them once for the Captures!
(Post-Time is 3:00 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/swissy-daily-1-18.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/swissy-hourly-1-18.gif
We will check in later today, as with the U.S. largely out of the trading climate today…we may have a few surprises.
Now…perhaps I will stay in the Ski Lodge…
The CVJ Guys packed all the gear…so my Skis may be a “little off”…if you know what I mean!
hee hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: correlation, Fibonacci, Ski, Switzerland, USD/CHF
The Dollar Emerging from the Sea of Japan
Posted on January 16, 2009 at 10:25 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi again, Everyone!
Despite the U.S. CPI coming “relatively in line”, the TIC Treasury Outflows Data atrocious , and Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production down… we are still making a decent bounce in our major “Match” of the Dollar Yen.
Here is our same Daily view from my previous Post…and we are grinding out some daylight here with the Dollar bounce off of Support.
Be sure to click once for the Captures, as most of the Analysis is on the Charts!
(Post-Time is 15:25 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/dollar-daily-1-16.gif
Here on two Hourly captures, we can see the strength of the counter-trend move here…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/dollar-yen-1-hour-1.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/dollar-hourly-1-16.gif
We will meet again for the Sydney Open on Sunday and check our progress here with some more ideas!
A good weekend to all, and we’ll see you then!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: CPI, Dollar Yen, resistance, support, TIC Data
Friday Follies With Dollar and Yen Strength…The Score?
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 22:00 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday Everyone!
Well, we made through as rather tumultuous week…full of event risk, averse sentiment, and counter-intuitive Price behavior!
Our “Dollar and Yen Strength Game” on Muscle Beach is still moving along, despite Euro & Company crowding the beach with events and the spotlight…so let’s have a look at the “Super-Heavyweight Match” of them all…Dollar Yen!
But CVJ!…All we have to do is look at the USD/JPY and we already know the answer!…
What kind of a Match is this?”…scream the CVJ Fan Club Guys.
“C’Mon Guys!”, I say…”Give me a minute to at least cover the Chart!”
( I am liking these three “MENSA Candidates” less and less each day…hee hee… )
All sarcasm aside, the Guys really are on the Mark here…
Let’s have a look at the larger Monthly and Daily views.
Analysis is largely on the Charts, so be sure to click once for the captures!
(Post-Time is 3:00 GMT)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/dollar-yen-monthly.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/dollar-yen-daily.gif
Let’s meet again for an Intraday Update, as we have massive Data Points emanating from the U.S. beginning at 13:30 GMT.
We shall see, indeed…if the Dollar can stage a significant bounce…or if the Yen throws the Yankee back into the Sea of Japan!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: bounce, dollar, head and shoulders, Sea of Japan, USD/JPY, YenEuro Plays The Range Game After Trichet
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 9:43 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Again!
Our Euro staged a nice bounce off of major Support at the 1.3075 area and if we look at the Hourly view here…our Daily .23.6%@1.3203 is capping Price and acting as an intraday resistance level.
( Post-Time is 14:40 GMT)
(click once for the captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-1-hour.gif
On the 5-Minute…we see our 1.3136 Area of Support now acting as our “dynamic” Support for now, so we will see if a “Break” of these areas are on the way….or…we may simply move about in these two Support areas.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-5m-2.gif
A significant test of the Support level at 1.3070 is highly probable for another bounce, so we shall see how we progress!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: consolidation, EUR/USD, euro, range, resistance, support
ECB Rate Cut was Priced-In…Euro Still Moves Nonetheless
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 8:17 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Thursday!
My buddy, Jean-Claude Trichet comes through as expected with a .50 basis-point cut that has been literally “priced-in” to the market.
We did have a slightly delayed little sell-off that hit our magenta trendline here on the 5-Minute view, so we may simply consolidate here a bit up until the Trichet Press Conference comes out with some “sentiment” for us.
( I do apologize…as I forgot to place this trendline in last night on the Daily view with our previous Post!)
( Post-Time at 13:15 GMT)
(click for the captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-daily-ecba-2.gif
Here’s the 5-Minute view for all of you Intraday folks…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-5m.gif
We drop to Support around 130.70 ish..but the real Key here willl be Trichet’s “rhetoric”.
In my personal view, he is the most effective Central Banker around, so the Markets tend to pay attention to his views and the ECB overall.
We will check back later after Trichet’s Statements and Press Conference to see where we land!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: ECB, EUR/USD, Interst Rate, Jean-Claude Trichet
No Rest For The Weary…But Will Euro Recover After The ECB?
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 21:59 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings!
The poor GBP/USD, “Her Majesty, the Queen” may be looking into early retirement out in the countryside soon…but what of Her Trade and Business Partner, the Euro?
My old friend, Jean-Claude Trichet and his “Merry Band of Cohorts” at the ECB may be booking a flight over to the English countryside as well!
Despite negative Retail Sales in the U.S., the Dollar stages another “counter-intuitive” rally along with its’ rocket-fueled partner, the Yen.
While the rationale and explanations here can get complex…all we really need to know for our Currency Work is Risk Aversion remains in the driver’s seat on this race track.
Our brief recap of the British Pound is nothing new here…and as with many Units lately…we are testing key and Major levels of Support and attempting some “Basing” behavior.
Our friend, the Euro, apparently is in for a .50bps Haircut tomorrow courtesy of the “ECB Barbershop”, although they could surely disappoint the markets with a simple “Holding” pattern.
If we see a larger Cut by the ECB, the “ironic” aspect is we will still have a larger Interest Rate Differential favoring the Euro over the Dollar.
So how will the Dollar handle this?
With the “”Counter-Intuitive” Factors we have been working with lately and Key Swing Reversals from Major Support areas…it is a “gray” area in my personal view.
With the Dollar hammering most of the Majors of late…we do realize that this scenario cannot last forever.
When the Dollar does begin to let up some steam is surely not for me to say…or anyone else.
( Remember…trade what you See…Not what you Think! )
So let’s check some Technicals here on the Daily, and see just how strong the dollar has been!
(We will check in with an Update after the EuroZone News and the Rate Decision as well…)
(Post-Time is 3:00 GMT)
( click once for the capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-daily-ecba.gif
The macro-Trend is still deeply clear…and while we all have differing views on just how important, and to what priority a Central Bank Interest Rate Decision is…
All that matters at the end of the day is the View and Priority of The Market!
It will lead us all to where we need to be….
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: basis point, Data, ECB, GBP/USD, Queen, rate, Risk Aversion, trend, Trichet
Risk Aversion Continues to Roll Over the Euro and the Pound
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 22:16 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Wednesday Everyone!
Our Dollar and Yen “Strength Match” rolls on with even more persistent Price action!
Today and Tomorrow we will have a look at the Euro Dollar and Pound Dollar examples, and see just how persistently strong the U.S. Dollar was against these two most-liquid of Currency Units!
Risk Aversion continues and a suprising narrowing of the U.S. Trade Deficit did nothing to curb the fallout with these two Pairs!
But first…how about a small recap of yesterday’s Examples?
Yesterday with our Aussie and Euro Yen…our projected target magnet areas were reached with the .6600 handle reached on Aussie, and our Euro Yen Bear Flag formation area at 118.00, respectively.
Here are the EXACT Charts from yesterday…the only difference being Price progression.
(I do this to simply emphasize my “I am not a Predictor!” viewpoint I have mentioned several times in the past.
I try to be a specific as possible by using probabilities and tendency… without being “certain” of anything….)
(Post-Time is 3:15 GMT)
(click once for the captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/aussie-1-13b.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/aussie-1-13.gif
OK…onto to the Euro and the Pound!
Our Euro certainly had major depreciation since we last visited Him a week ago or so…and the poor Queen!
“The Poor Poor QUEEN!”, …I can hear the CVJ Guys lament…
( I can see my Premium friend, Ray…and friend, fellow Blogger, and fine Trader Phil Newton, shedding a tear already…)
We have spent quite a bit of time rescuing Her from the English Channel in Her battle with the Euro…and lately the Trans-Atlantic “Cable” that gave Her the nickname is certainly beginning to fray!
So let’s take a look at Pound Dollar, and then tomorrow…we will hit the Euro Dollar just ahead of the ECB Interest Rate Meeting Thursday.
Here we are on the Daily…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/pound-compare1.gif
While we are staging a corrective Retracement here…it is clear the Macro-Sentiment here is quite Bearish.
Our view for “both sides of the fence” is to “Proceed With Caution!”
We do have “Basing”-type behavior here on the Daily, and if you are bullish, you have missed your Contrarian opportunity to Buy into the retracement.
Patience is Key…in that appreciation to Resistance may bring a rapid drop back to Support where you may have your opportunity with a significant “bounce”.
In any event…Please DO NOT chase this trade!
If your view is bearish…then Patience is also Key here..as you need a nice and solid retracement here for a significant sell into strength to be in concert with the Macro-Downtrend.
Clearing the 1.48 Resistance is needed…and then you wish to observe how Price “behaves” at this area…
Do we simply shoot right through and continue north?… or do we “hover and float” around this area?
This will assist you in making a well-informed decision to Sell at this Level.
DISCLAIMER:
( My thoughts are based on the criteria of a Daily view …so the Intraday folks may see shorter-term relevant views here…)
Let’s check in later in the day for an Update and see if the Dollar will prevail… or if the Queen has had enough and pummels Her friend, the Yankee Dollar!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: EUR/USD, euro, GBP/USD, pound, probability, resistance, retracement, risk, support, tendency, U.K., United Kingdom
Risk-Averse Dollar and Yen Strong…But Is One Stronger?
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 22:08 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello All !
With an active and volatile start to the week, Risk Aversion is the Name of the Game…as mentioned in the previous Posts.
The Dollar and the Yen staged solid and weight-filled strength yesterday literally leaving no Currency Unit untouched!
Our Macro correlations are largely back in view, as Equities and the Indices Outflows sailed right along with these two Units.
One of the early Lessons of Foreign Exchange work is to “see” the Pair as two separate Entities.
In this fashion we can “match” up which “Side” (economy) of the Pair may be stronger, weaker, and to what degree or extent.
(This is still a deeply valid Principle that I use on many different levels, and I thank my Primary mentor, Ed Ponsi, with this essential and beautifully simple Concept.)
When we think of these ideas, we ask some basic questions:
“Which Currency is stronger and why?”…”Which is weaker and why?”…”To what extent is the disconnect?”…and so on.
Let’s deal with the Dollar and Yen for a few days through many of our liquid and popular Pairs, beginning with Euro Yen and Aussie Dollar.
A “World Tour” may shed some light on this query for us!
“CVJ…why do this? The “obvious”Pair to answer this question is Dollar Yen!” …I can hear the CVJ Guys say…
(Hmmm…I’m beginning to think these guys are not really my friends since they always contradict me!…)
“True!…but the real measure here is how the Dollar and the Yen behave on their own accord within OTHER Pairs…not just themselves!”,I say… hopefully putting these guys in their place for a while.
First of all, let’s jump out to the Daily Views of these two and see how similar they are behaving…
(Post-Time is 3:10 GMT)
(click once for the captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-yen-daily.gif
Yen looks confidently strong in this round!…
Let’s check on the Dollar and its’ match with the Aussie!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/aussie-1-12.gif
Dollar rather stout here, too…although our Macro-Bear Flag is a little “loose and noisy”.
Hmmm…so who “wins” the “Strongest Unit Competition” with these two examples?
Feel free to participate here with your thoughts and commentary!
I promise…the CVJ Guys will leave you alone!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, aversion, dollar, EUR/JPY, financial, risk, strong vs. weak, Yen
Risk Aversion Back in Place…and our Queen is Still Going Under
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 10:37 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings!
A quick Update for all of you who work on a short-term Basis…our Cable has fallen to our little “consolidative” area and we are roughly at a mid-point in the larger Range.
(click once for the capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-5m4.gif
Now…we could certainly do this on this fast and tight %-Minute Time Cycle…or if you are Bullish…you may be thinking of a bounce-reversal here.
If you are following a Risk Averse view…then you will wait for strength to sell into…perhaps even back to the Magenta Range we indicated earlier as we need to observe how Price will “behave” in those “clustering” Areas.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: bear, Bull, Cable, cluster, consolidation, GBP/USD, range, Risk Aversion
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on January 11, 2009 at 22:19 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to a new week and Happy Monday!
“What happened to the big “Risk Appetite is back!” cheers from the Media world?….
We thought the Majors were back and the Dollar is fading away???”… I can hear the CVJ Fan Club guys say …with clear sarcasm, of course.
Surely our Non-Farm Payroll Data would compliment their sarcastic views..as we still have Dollar and Yen strength which is “counter-intuitive”.
We now hear of true and “actual” Unemployment NOT being at 7.2% or so…but 13.5%! …when we factor in those looking for work who have simply given up, and also the increases in non-measurable part-time employees.
Will the CVJ Guys be proven wrong?…maybe…but for the time being…Risk Aversion may be back in place in the near-term.
So let’s have a visit with the Queen again…and check on Cable.
When we left Her on Friday…we were drilling down to a 5-Minute time cycle and noticed a Double Top formation that may come to fruition.
We left our little “Channel of Congestion” around the 50% Daily Fib of the last major Down-Leg as a near-term “magnet”…and we surely have re-entered this Basing area.
(Post-Time is 3:20 GMT)
(click once for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-5m3.gif
Here is the larger Daily view…to see the Fibonacci confluence points and a Macro- “Triple Bottom” behaving Formation.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-3bottom.gif
Curious about the title of today’s Post?
It is a “play on words” and a little “inside ribbing” for my Premium colleague and friend, Ray!
We spent plenty of time last year discussing how all of his countrymen were coming over to the States on a round-trip one day shopping spree for Christmas…buying half of Florida…and then running me off the road out here in Phoenix by their “backwards” driving!
Well..this year it may be my turn!
I suppose it is my time to come over…buy a nice Flat…and drive “on the wrong side” of their roads!
Seriously…all humor aside…where the U.K. economy goes and the ways they choose to heal their wounds will essentially be no different from us here in the States.
No Man is an Island…and No Economy is Either.
:-)
(As I mentioned last week…I will try to do Intraday Updates and along with this will come shorter-term views. Most of you know my personal views tend to be longer-term…so I thought it would be beneficial to give some thoughts to all of you who trade Intraday time cycles.)
Tags: British, Cable, channel, economy, England, GBP/USD, pound, Queen, risk, Sterling, U.K., United Kingdom
Dollar Gains Despite NFP Tipping the Scales
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 11:14 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again, to All !
December NFP Headline kicks in at a loss of 524K Jobs last month…which is historically the worst on record since World War II!
Of course…Market dynamics will always “Rule the Day” here…
Despite the atrocious reading…the numbers were not as “dismal” as estimates and consensuspredicted.
Hence…we have “counter-intuitive” Dollar strength here…let’s take a look at Cable again from a few hours back…
(click once for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-5m-2.gif
Again…an attraction to the Magenta Channel “Basing” here is possible…but as with all things…we simply need more information and time to see where Price wishes to take us this late in the Trading Day.
Have a good weekend everyone!…and we will see you Sunday for the Sydney Open as we continue to digest this “historical” NFP Data Point!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Cable, dollar, employment, nfp
U.K. Contraction Drowning the Queen Again in the Channel?
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 4:56 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Again for today’s next Update!
The Manufacturing Output and Industrial Production in the U.K. declined for the 9th consecutive month…indicating the longest “contraction” since 1980.
Industrial Production also came in concert with Manufacturing, and ironically…overall PPI edged above Consensus in December Month-over-Month and Year-over-Year for December.
Her Majesty, the Queen…Cable…depreciated with strong reaction on our 5 Minute Time Cycle…so let’s take a look…despite the weak Data…She is not exactly drowning yet….
(click for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cable-5m.gif
Of course…we certainly may continue to work this little range…as I mentioned in the previous Post…we are “resting quietly” across the board ahead of what will be an interesting NFP, to say the least.
We will check back with Her Majesty afterwards…and see if she is swimming lovingly in the English Channel…or if we have to, once again, send out the CVJ Fan Club Guys for another Rescue!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Cable, channel, industrial, manufacturing, Pund, Sterling, United Kingdom
Dollar Resting Quietly Ahead of NFP…But Will Anything Really Change?
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 3:36 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy NFP Friday Everyone, and my apologies for the late Post!
The Majors are holding on to their “Anchors” areas across the board, as they always do, while awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls Data Points the first Friday of each month.
The December 2008 certainly has raised the Media ‘hype” and “Prediction” topics to new levels, and I have seen varying opinions from a negative One Million Job Loss number last month…to a positive “light” 220K Job Loss number.
Hmmm…do we need to add these Prognosticators to the other “MENSA Candidates” from a few days ago who find validity with ADP Data? http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Seriously…this type of “wild swing” in Prediction here tells you really everything you need to know about being “right”…”wrong”…and “knowing” what will happen in these Markets!
Remember…your Eyes tell you more information than all of the prediction that comes your way ever could.
It is like counting the Apples first…before you try to compare them to the Oranges…you have two different levels of inquiry here..and both are asking the wrong question.
Use your Analysis to factor in your view!…Do you see something logically “trade-able” or not?…irregardless of the Data Point or how close to or far away from the “estimates” that comes in!
THAT really isn’t the issue here…what IS the issue is you yourself maintaining your overall views of the Asset Classes you are working with.
For example…if the Euro has been behaving and adhering to various technical levels, trends, ranges, and such all week…would we really think even a singular Data Point such as NFP will completely shift and eradicate that dynamic???
Probably not.
After all…where does Price in the majority of cases usually end up after all the dust has settled?
Right back at the Mean.
We will check in with an Update after NFP…and see if any of these thoughts are valid.
In the meantime…adhere to your own Analysis and your own Views!
It is your Work, after all… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Data, nfp
Jobless Claims and BoE Rate Cut Clip the Dollar
Posted on January 8, 2009 at 9:06 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi Everyone!
The “surprising” move for a historical Rate Cut out of the U.K., despite a significant decrease in Jobless Claims being the lowest since the week of October 11th, has continued to propel the Majors into appreciation.
The BoE Rate Cut was surprising in my personal view… as a full Basis Point would not have shattered my world at all.
OK… call me a “Perma-Bear” if you want on the U.K. economy…but the Fish ‘N’ Chips are just not the same these days are they!… hee hee http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
“CVJ…You should not talk…things in your neck of the world in the U.S. aren’t exactly in top form now, are they!”… I can hear the CVJ Fan Club guys say… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
But… the Queen is at least back on dry land…so let’s have a look!
(Post-time is 14:00 GMT)
(click once for the capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/queen.gif
We can check in and see if we simply move into consolidative activity or continue with overall intraday Bullish sentiment!
Tags: Bank of England, Cable, GBP/USD, Her Majesty, Jobless Claims, pound, Queen, Sterling, usThe Aussie Waves Quieting Down on my Surfing Trip
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 22:10 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem4 Comments »
Happy Thursday!
We had some generous and full activity yesterday with Data Point Releases…intraday breakouts…and Crude and Gold “steering” some Currency Units as well !
It is always a pleasure to have returning Volume and Institutional activity returning to the Arena, isn’t it!
Are we back to “Full Throttle”?… I still do not believe so.
We have a massively “symbolic” Non-Farm Payrolls Day on Friday…which will cap 2008 and gives us some semblance of the year as a whole.
This is a key reason why I personally think we will see “Full Throttle” next week…as we still have various Agendas playing out on different Financial levels.
While 2008 is over…2008 “Housekeeping” surely is not!
Now to the Aussie…
We have most Majors in “compliment” with each other in directional movement…Fiber, Cable, and the Aussie are quite similar going forward.
(Post-time is 3:10 GMT)
(click once for the capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/aussie-1-07.gif
Not much to say here, really….rather straightforward.
We are still working a Macro-Bear Flag formation here, so if you hold this view…be mindful of a downside purge possibly back to Major Support at .6350.
If your view is Bullish…and if our two Anchor trendlines can hold Price in a “reasonable fashion”…then a push to the .7700 area is probable.
On another Note:
I will be trying to give all of you some Intraday Updates as often as possible to the Blog, and I begun this process yesterday with the ADP and Crude Inventories Posts preceeding this one.
I hope they prove to be useful and beneficial for you and as always…your feedback and commentary is always welcome!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Tags: anchor, AUD/USD, Aussie, Bear Flag, Cable, Data, Fiber, formation, gold, Majors, oil, trendline
Crude Inventories Rise, Demand still Falters…and the Loonie?
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 12:07 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Again!
Crude Inventories come in rather surprising to the Sector with ever-increasing Supply….indicating a real concern over the Demand “climate” as a whole.
A clip of 6.7 million Barrels pummels the “estimate” of a paltry 700,000 Barrels…along with significant increases in Gasoline, Distillates, Heating Oil, and Diesel!
For our purposes…instead of going directly to Crude…let’s take a check of the USD/CAD…the “Loonie”.
(Post-writing as of 17:05 GMT)
(click once for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/cad-5m.gif
On the tight 5-Minute Capture…my trendlines some time ago surely have been breached as in my view… this is definingthe “sentiment” to flow back into our Channel here…
A significant 150-pip appreciation after the Data Point brings to mind an interesting thought:
Technically…we would have “broken” the ranging channel we were in sooner or later…so was Crude Inventories really the Catalyst?…..or simply the Excuse???
Hmmm… I’ll have my three “CVJ Fan Club” friends contemplate that while they wash my car or something…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: crude oil, demand, inventory, Loonie, supply, USD/CAD
ADP Hits the Wall
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 8:38 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone!
If you read my previous Post…you are aware of my “endearing love” for the entire ADP Concept that came out of nowhere almost two years ago…I do apologize for the “sarcasm”!
(Well…actually I don’t!…just wanted to make you feel better… ) http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
ADP clocks in with December Numbers at a dismal -693!…vs. our Concensus of a -450 loss..up against a previous Data Point of -250.
Here is reaction from the Euro as of this writing a few minutes ago….and we have appreciated since this Capture as well…
(click once for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/adp1.gif
So…what happened to the “warm and fuzzy” feelings to start the New Year with?
I think they were swallowed with that last glass of New Year’s Champagne!
Tags: adp, breakout, Data, EUR/USD, euro, euro dollar, upside break
Surf’s Up!… AUD/USD Gains Some Appreciation!
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 21:42 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings on this first Wednesday of 2009!
Let’s have a quick check of our Technical thoughts on the Euro yesterday…
We did, indeed, receive our downside momentum push out of the consolidation Pennant/Triangle formation!
I am still of the view that our near-term “Basing” area of 1.3230 is deeply probable.
If this is significantly breached…then 1.3050 is our next downside risk area.
Here’s a Recap view on the Hourly…
(Post-writing time tonight is 2:45 GMT).
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-hourly-1-06.gif
Now…let’s see how our other “Mate”,the Aussie, is fairing this first week of 2009!
As for today’s Post Title…
I know I always use the “Surfing” metaphor for the Aussie Dollar…
What can I say?…some of the finest waves in the world off of its’ shores…maybe I’ll ride a few one day!
“Back to business, CVJ !…You can surf later !!! “
Hey!…the three “CVJ Fan Club” guys are back from Holiday!…hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
OK…to the Daily view to see where we stand!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/aussie-hourly-1-06.gif
We do, indeed, have increasing interest in the Commodities Sector of Australia, and as always…specifically the Metals Sector and Gold…as the shiny metal is also under nice overall appreciation!
Technically, we have a similar Macro-Bear Flag here…with similar Fibonacci “flashpoint areas” as our Euro friend up above.
We have the U.S. December private Sector ADP Payrolls Report tomorrow…so I will, indeed, be back with an Intraday Update for you to see where we proceed.
Of course…those of you who have known me for quite some time know my thoughts on the “MENSA Candidates” that actually find validity in this Report…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: ADP Report, AUD/USD, Aussie Dollar, Australia, commodities, correlation, EUR/USD, euro, gold, metal, momentum, pennant, triangle
EUR/USD Continues To Ski Down the Slope
Posted on January 5, 2009 at 22:17 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Tuesday !
We have a slight hint of Risk Appetite returning to the Market “climate” overall…but is it “real”?…or simply a wash of New Year beginnings, fresh starts, and resolutions?…
The EuroZone is in no position to deeply enjoy the appreciative Value of it’s Currency the last several Sessions.
Fundamentally, we already have “whispers” of Rate Cuts not being an issue if Inflation continues to falter.
Appreciation in the Yen Crosses, as well as a generally “consolidative” Inside Day yesterday in the Dow may lean towards “warm and fuzzy” feelings of a fresh start to the New Year…but we will have to see after this week concludes.
We still have Institutional Volume and activity coming back to the global financial world, and with NFP on Friday…this week is a bit “skewed” in my personal view.
So…let’s check back with the Euro and see how we’ve progressed in the last 24 hours or so…
(Post-writing time tonight is 3:15 GMT).
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-daily-1-05.gif
We certainly have our “Basing” at 1.3220 in sight…despite the slight Pennant formation on our Hourly view…..take a look.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-hourly-1-05.gif
This is a “classic” Bear Flag pattern here…and even more so when we have a “Pennant”, as we have here.
The Pennant itself is also “behaving” as sort of an “Ascending Flat Top Triangle” right on the 50% Fib…so its’ probability of holding is rather concrete.
If we do breach the area significantly, then our next logical stop on the Ski Lift would be around the 1.3750 area.
Of course…nothing is certain and all of you know that Prediction is not my preferred behavior of choice! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Remember…as in all areas of your Trading…and your Life for that matter…
What matters most?
What If ?….or What Is.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: downside risk, EUR/USD, Fibonacci, Fractal, trendline
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on January 4, 2009 at 21:41 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to out first trading week of 2009!
Last Friday, our Euro friend was appreciating nicely with its’ “cousin”, Gold.
We noticed a strong relationship here, and concluded our Price similarities were tight…but not as deeply
correlatedas other Currency/Commodity groupings.
Even though the Euro itself is strongly backed by Gold…how about a look at the tightest Gold correlation we have…the Aussie!
So…let’s take a look at the Euro and the Aussie for a couple of days…we may see some of those general macro-similarities that we use for overall Market exposure protection.
First up to the plate is the Euro…so let’s see where we may progressing.
We are still largely “Rangebound” on a Daily Macro view ( mind you…a rather large Range…), although a visit to our Hourly again shows nice follow-through with the Sydney Open to begin our week.
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-daily-1-04.gif
Our points of directionality are rather clear on the Daily Time Cycle…so let’s drill down to the Hourly and see if we have additional clarity.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-hourly-1-04.gif
As illustrated, we certainly may see a re-test of the 1.40 area…although we do appear to be carrying some “weight” here with high probabilities to the downside.
Tags: base, continuation, cousin, dynamic, EUR/USD, euro, gold, static, Volume
Ranging Market Activity Hits the Dollar
Posted on January 2, 2009 at 17:42 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Happy Friday/Saturday Eve!
( I will, indeed, open the new week with the Euro…since I mentioned it in the previous Post. I felt Crude was appropriate for our final Post of the week. )
Our slight Dollar strength all around was certainly short-lived wasn’t it!
The effects of “Rangebound” Markets will often behave in this fashion…where we “Give and Taketh Away” in equal measure!
The “star” of the day in my personal view was Crude Oil, so let’s have another look a few hours later from the last Blog Post…
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/crude-1-2-2b.gif
While the appreciation rally is significant…our Daily view tells a different story…..
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/crude-daily-1-21.gif
Of course…how shall we handle this?
If your view is, indeed, Bearish and a bit longer-term… selling into strength is appropriate.
If you are Bullish from our intraday Hourly perspective…do not attempt to “Chase this Trade”.
We are “overbought” here and our range is extended, so a favorable view would be to wait until Price opens again at the start of the new week.
As always…we want to observe how Price behaves at the $46.50 Area…
In this scenario, we wish to look for a logical retracement area for a more attractive Exchange rate to buy.
Have a good weekend, and again…I will check in with the Euro at the Sydney Open on Sunday!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: bearish, bullish, crude, dollar, euro, markets, oil, Price, range
ISM relatively flat, Gold and Crude a bit Bullish…
Posted on January 2, 2009 at 10:14 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings!
As we move through the day, the Dollar is steadily making quiet headway against most majors, despite the intraday Bull Flags in Crude Oil and Gold.
ISM clocks in just slightly below estimates at a comprehensive 32.4 which is obviously still indicating Manufacturing Contraction…as it is the lowest Point since June of 1980!
Surprised?…You shouldn’t be…it’s not the “Wonder Years” of 2005 or so around the States, now is it!
Here we are on Gold and Crude on an Hourly basis… so click for the Captures.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/gold-1-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/crude-1-2.gif
Let’s check back with the Euro a bit later on towards the Close…See you soon!
Tags: Bull Flag, crude, euro, gold, oil
U.K. Housing continues to slide, and GBP/JPY Reacts
Posted on January 2, 2009 at 7:09 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Again!
After a few hours of digesting Price action, our Pound Yen really clarifies bearish and “dovish” sentiment in the U.K. Housing scenario.
With the Halifax Price Index as a perfect Barometer here….a decline of 2.2% in December is 16.2% lower than a year earlier in December of 2007.
Intraday reaction in Yen strength is evident here on the GBP/JPY Cross…so click for the Capture.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/pound-yen-1-2.gif
Perhaps a drop into the 130-132 Ranging Channel here?…or more of a Re-Test into the “Consolidation Zone” of 132 to 133.50…
We shall see !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: GBP/JPY, pound, U.K. Housing, Yen
Quiet So Far on the 2009 Sea…
Posted on January 2, 2009 at 5:04 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday and post-New Year’s Day!
We begin the first trading day of 2009 “In A Silent Way”, as the old Miles Davis jazz standard goes….
Depending on your particular Price and Data Feeds, nice Gaps may have started out the New Year for you.
Most Currency Units are in tight rangebound areas, and moving along slowly as of this writing at 10 GMT.
EuroZone is beginning the New year with falling Manufacturing demand, although sentiment for the pair is slightly bullish…at least in the imeddiate near-term.
We still have some nice “noisy” movement so far so as always…be aware of the Price deviation as we move through the day.
EUR/USD gives a fine indication for market sentiment and mood, so click on the capture for a look!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2009/01/euro-1-2.gif
We retained our carry-over Fib areas, and have plenty of potential levels to work with in a nice little Range here.
If you are choosing to work in this environment…proceed with caution and diligence as always…we may certainly see some deep and choppy swings in Price action here.
Fundamentally, a rather quiet day with a bit of U.K. Data and ISM Manuafacturing from the U.S.
This Release is always interesting for me, since the Institute for Supply Management is located right in my city!
I’ll be with you for this release and we see how we are moving through the day!
Tags: EUR/USD, Institute for Supply Management, ISM, Maufacturing, price gap, range
Volatility with your New Year’s Eve Champagne, Sir?
Posted on December 31, 2008 at 16:09 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy New Year’s Eve again, Everyone!
I will be back with you throughout the week with intraday updates and thoughts as we head into the first week of January 2009.
The concept of “thin” Markets and high and low volatility you have heard 4 billion times in the last month has a perfect…and I mean PERFECT …example on our Euro Pound pair today.
Let’s have a peek!
(click for the capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/europound-hourly-apex-2.gif
We have a rapid and stout correction here to the downside that is surprising…given the Average True Range of this Pair…despite it’s recent strong uptrend!
An intraday correction of 300 pips on this Pair is surely unusual!
But..we are in deeply unusual times, aren’t we!
This Price action, in my view, speaks louder than words as a “Lesson” for being extremely cautious about trading in this current Holiday climate.
If this example is not a “Deterrent” for you….than have a look at the Yen Crosses!
Here is a look at the Pound Yen earlier today!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/pound-yen-1231.gif
As we can see…most Institutions, Hedge Funds, and Professional Traders have been away at the beaches and Ski slopes around the world!…
Price action is one of many reasons…but in my view…it is the most important!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
NYSE just closed, and we are in positive territory across the board…the Dow, Crude, Gold, NASDAQ,and the S&P.
Russia is planning to clip Natural Gas supplies to the Ukraine, and with the conflict with Israel and Hamas…we are certainly feeling some geopolitical “flashpoints” as well !
We will see how this carries over to Friday’s Market Open’s around the world!…
Tags: Dow, euro pound, Europe, Fibonacci, gold, oil, Russia, Ukraine, United KingdomThe Battle of The Channel… Part II !
Posted on December 30, 2008 at 20:44 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Happy New Year’s Eve to All !
I thought we would revisit our big Battle of the English Channel going on with the EuroZone and the U.K.
It is certainly timely since we have had such devisive appreciation of the Euro in this case…Her Majesty may need us to rescue Her again from the Deep Blue! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
When we last looked at the Pair, here is what we had.
I kept the original Chart from that Post a couple weeks back….and what a difference those several trading day made!
Our Daily Bull Flag certainly came to fruition in a massive way and even reached a new paradigm in Price!
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/europound.gif
We never did have a correction there, did we!
Down on the Hourly, I have written my currentPrice action views on the Capture, so be sure to give it a “click”!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/europound-hourly-apex.gif
It really is my personal viewthat the Bank of England will cut rates again next week…
It really is my personal viewthat the European Central Bank will pause and hold rates at their next meeting…
So where does that leave us if my views come to fruition?
“Parity my dear friends and colleagues…Parity, I say!” http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Parity!
DISCLAIMER:
If I am right…I give my U.K. friends…led by my dear FXstreet Premium friend, Ray….full permission to drown me in the Thames!
If I am right…I give my EuroZone friends and everyone at FXstreet…full permission to throw me a big party in Barcelona!
Either way…I’m pretty neutral about it, wouldn’t you say??? …hee hee hee…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Bank of England, EUR/GBP, euro, European Central Bank, interest rate, Parity, pound, Price
We Continue with our Two Cousins…Gold and Euro!
Posted on December 29, 2008 at 21:09 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy “Thin” Tuesday !
Yes…our “thin” Volume continues all across the Markets…and with plenty of illiquid Price action thrown in there as well !
This becomes an oxymoron, if you will…as high and low liquidity can equal low and high volatility and vice versa!
In this case…we do have recent geopolitical events in the Middle East which helped these two cases…but thats’ another topic!
Let’s jump right in and have a look at our Gold and Euro Dollar Hourly views from yesterday and see where we are….
Immediately, we notice our “general” correlation here has certainly “unwound and decoupled”!
My thought yesterday on a fundamental difference with these two has been validated.
We do, indeed, have Gold continuing its’ appreciation…and holding its’ Value…
And…
We do, indeed, have the Euro also continuing its’ appreciation…and skiing straight down the slope !
As of this writing…about 2:10 GMT…here are the Charts.
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/gold-1229.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro1229.gif
Now…some macro-Fundamental points that we must consider in why our Euro/Gold “cousins” are not hanging out together on the Winter Ski slopes lately!…
First of all, the EuroZone is truly feeling what all of us have been feeling around the world: a state of risk aversion and fear with probable Interest Rate declines in the months to come.
Despite the generally “hawkishly firm” stance of the ECB and it’s continued focus on Inflation…the world is surely proving this “sentiment” to be ill-advised.
Of course, more verification comes from the weak German and overall EZ Data Points lately and while we still may appreciate…the Euro Bull is beginning to tire.
The Chart of the Euro above illustrates this and also signals weak momentum and sentiment with such a robust reversal in Price behavior.
A significant breach of the “Basing” area there will take us to the 1.3820 Support level.
…And what of my old “girlfriend”, Gold?
We should find Her potentially revisiting the major Resistance at $890 and if this is not breached…a potential retracement to the $865 38.2% Fib/dynamic area is highly probable.
Tomorrow…I would like to revisit one of my Posts from last week on the Euro Pound and see how we are faring with the “Battle of the Channel” !
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: correlation, decoupled, ECB, euro, gold, liquidity, markets, Ski, Skiing, unwound
My “Gold-en Girl” Prevails!
Posted on December 28, 2008 at 21:53 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Monday Everyone!
We have all emerged well from Christmas and Boxing Day around the world…hopefully in one piece!…so let’s have a look at a a particularly interesting move on Friday, as well as the Sydney Open a few hours ago…
First off, I would like to focus on a Unit that actually did move on Friday!
Remember my Post on why I still love Gold a month or so back?
Friday’s interesting move in Price action fits right in here…
The significant trending appreciation in Gold with the intraday breakout was a fine example ofPrice behavior taking advantage of a “thin” Market climate!
Let’s have a look…
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/gold-867.gif
Now…interestingly enough…especially in a “thin” environment…the Euro did not follow this correlation quite as heavily.
While still in an uptrend and appreciating…the Euro does not have what it’s “cousin”, Gold, has…
A “Safe Haven” history.
Of course…I am speaking of the proverbial “Apples and Oranges” here in the same sentence.
We certainly cannot make a “true straight correlation” with a Currency and a Metal…but we do know exactly how close they are due to the fact of how much the Euro is backed by Gold.
Here is Fiber on the same Hourly view…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/fiber-1228.gif
Fiber may also pullback to the 38.2% Fib as we see in Gold as well…but we may see looking out a bit longer-term that these two “Cousins” will begin to “unwind” from each other.
“Why would this be, CVJ?…when again…the Euro Currency itself is so heavily backed by Gold?…
A fine question, my friends!…and one we will get to tomorrow!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Boxing Day, Christmas, EUR/USD, gold
“The Day of the Long Wicks”
Posted on December 26, 2008 at 10:01 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem1 Comment »
Hello Everyone!
I hope everyone had a safe and festive Christmas, and Happy Boxing Day!
Pardon me for my “allusion” to those infamous German evenings in the 1930’s with my title, but just as those Long Knives were symbolic of troubles and dangers to come…so can Price action today with the “Long Wicks” that we are having all over most markets!
When we see this, it is due primarily to what we call “indecision” and “Pushing and Pulling” Price action.
In times of light Volume, this sentiment is strongly magnified.
Those of you who are choosing to work in this environment, watch your Stop Losses carefully!
These angular vertical moves can certainly trigger them all day long.
Let’s have a brief look around….about 15:00 GMT as of my writing….
Euro is hitting its’ all time High against the Pound coming in at .9575 according to DJNewswire!
Euro itself clocking in currently at 1.4046…pulling back a bit after touching around 1.4120.
Swissy in a strong Daily Bear Flag pattern, and holding at the support of Sept. 22nd Fib Upleg @ 1.0700 area.
Aussie and Kiwi still rather rangebound on an Hourly perspective, and our Blog friend of the last couple of days, the Yen, is hovering around the 38.2%of the Hourly Upleg we put in a couple days ago.
Dow, S&P 500, Gold, Crude, and the NASDAQ are allin positive territory, so let’s see if our “usual” correlations persist throughout the day…
So…have a travel Tour around your Platforms if your Brokers and Dealers are open…and we will check in later to see how any of our Dynamic areas in a few Pairs have fared!
Tags: Boxing Day, Christmas, correlation, Dow Jones, euro, NYSE, pound
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on December 25, 2008 at 19:18 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Merry Christmas again to All !
The final “Purge” of Japanese Data was just released, and it is not encouraging…albeit not surprising either.
The Nikkei opens us about .5% higher…which is interesting. We’ll see where She heads as all of the lackluster Data is digested.
November Industrial Output falls to -8.1% Month-over-Month…which is the largest decline on record!!!
Overall Retail Sales is down 0.9% for the Year… although Core CPI is down just a tiny bit at +1.0% when we were expecting +1.1%.
For our concerns, we will see how the Dollar Yen absorbs and work through this Data tomorrow, the 26th.
Currencies may still be quiet, but rather volatile…due to Boxing Day and your particular Platforms and Brokers may or may not be open.
It will be an interesting day, and I’ll stop in for another update!
Happy Boxing Day tomorrow for all! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: CPI, Industrial Output, Japan
Merry Christmas!
Posted on December 25, 2008 at 8:53 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings to All and Merry Christmas!
It is my sincere hope for a fine day today with your Family and Friends!
The latest News from Japan is rather tepid, but we will get some real “meat” tonight with the last purge of Japanese News.
The Corporate Service Price comes in right in line at -1.9% …rather neutral for the Yen itself…as a high reading is rather bullish and a low watermark is bearish.
This is similar to the U.S. CPE, and can be used as a broad indication of Inflationary pressures.
November Annualized Housing Starts of new homes were down about 73K units, as was Year-over-Year Housing Starts which flatlined at 0.0%.
Construction Orders tells the tale here moving from 47.2% down to -12.5%.
Nothing new here…and in my view…these Data Points could originate from just about anywhere in the world.
We are all feeling the same thing here, aren’t we !
I love to do this every Christmas, so try to if you have a moment:
With Platforms and Markets closed today…take a look at virtually any Currency Pair and see where Price is “frozen in time”.
You will find many at Round Numbers…Price resting on Support and/or Resistance…respecting significant Trend Lines… and the like.
Now…please tell me there is not “Order” in these Markets!
I do not know why or how…It Is what it Is.
I’ll ponder it over a Football Game and a Spiced Rum…. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: demand, housing, inflation, Japan, supply
BoJ: Economy needs Time for Recovery
Posted on December 24, 2008 at 19:39 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
The November Meeting Minutes of the Bank of Japan certainly offer us no surprises here…and is certainly not Hawkish in any sense of the term!
The “cohesion” within the BoJ itself was rather refreshing, as the Board unanimously held Interest Rates at .30bps…( currently at .10bps as of last week).
This was in sharp contrast to new Governor Masaaki Shirakawa having to cast his Vote last meeting.
Perhaps they are holding equal “Sentiment” lately and functioning as an actual Board of Decision.
How many instances over previous years have we literally seen the Bank of Japan come apart at the seams?
When you are truly the only Central Bank of the Industrialized Powers tied directly to your Government…
then this new ”Perspective of Cooperation” certainly is a change of pace!
See you soon for 5:00 GMT Data! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Bank of Japan, interest rate, Japan
At the NYSE Holiday Close…
Posted on December 24, 2008 at 13:10 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi again, everyone!
18:10 GMT now at the early-day Close of the NYSE with the DJIA @ 8468.48…the S&P 500 @ 868.15…and the NASDAQ @ 1524.90.
Gold was on a nice $10.00 appreciation this morning closing at $849.00…although it did not really translate to its’ Correlation with the Euro.
Crude drops off@ $37.52 currently, and appears to still respecting intraday Support @ about $33.60.
Our Euro is still jumping around in its’ Range on the Hourly, and now appears to be forming a Symmetrical Triangle on this time cycle.
We’ll check back in later, and see if our “Coil” pattern here gets even tighter with lowering and quieting volatility!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Dow Jones, gold, NASDAQ, New York Stock Exchange, Standard and Poors
…And the Calm before the Storm Begins…
Posted on December 24, 2008 at 11:20 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Official Time is 16:19 GMT now, and we have seen the Currency markets digest the “tepid” U.S. Data of this morning as mentioned in my earlier Post.
Euro Dollar is caught in about a about a 100-pip range on the Hourly…and is the FIRST real Indication of quiet thin Volume in my viewwe have discussedin this Trading climate going into Christmas Day tomorrow.
Let’s see if we stick to this tight ”sidewinding” movement we have here…or…if we extend out a bit later in the day where our Daily Fib Area of the 1.2550-1.4718 recent Upleg @1.3889 to 1.4260, indeed, becomes a new Range.
Have a Look…
(click once for the capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-xmas-eve.gif
Tags: EUR/USD, euro dollar, Fibonacci
Early U.S. Data Mixed and “Range Bound”…
Posted on December 24, 2008 at 9:16 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Christmas Eve !
Our gridlock of U.S. Data overnight with Existing Home Sales and this Morning offer no real surprises and no marked movements for us in the FX World.
Existing Home Sales coming in deeply weak at -8.6% Month-over-Month with Continuing Jobless Claims following it with 4370K…better than last month’s by 14K Claimants.
Is that necessarily positive?…or is it simply due to “attrition” where we know Claimants eventually will be processed.
Our Federal Reserve certainly is not content with their “Favorite” Data Point, CPE.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Month-over-Month clocks in at -1.1% off of a flat-line 0.0% last month.
Year-over-year CPE is really the “Fed Watcher” and tips the scales at 1.4% coming off of 2.1%.
Recessionary?…Of course!
Now…Durable Goods and the DG Core come in a bit more positive, but perhaps this is also simply due to the holiday season…and I’m “reaching” here…and it may even be due to the three Cars that were sold all over the country!
Woo Hoo!!!
My apologies for my sarcasm…but NEW Jobless Claims rise 32K to 586K, and last month’s Personal Income and Personal Spending is also down -0.2% and -0.6, respectively.
Having thin markets on Christmas Eve certainly would not help a “tradeable view” here, as our whipsawing a noise is continuing.
Moves of 25 pips..down to 3…up to 8…down to 32…up to 5…and flat are happening all over…just like when you start your Car in the cold weather.
You have all of this “activity” with the engine cranking over…but you really aren’t going anywhere are you!… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
I’ll check in with all of you later with the Japanese onslaught of Data beginning tonight with the BoJ Minutes.
In the meantime, relax and enjoy the day with family,friends, and cool weather!
Tags: Consumer, Home Sales, Japan, United States
USD/JPY To 91.50 then South to Below 90.00?
Posted on December 23, 2008 at 21:22 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings!
Well…we certainly are following our thin markets and sentiment so far…
The Dow weakened in a tight range yesterday…as did Gold, Crude, most Currencies and if fact…most Markets!
We are seeing our yearly “flailing around climate” here in what can be considered knee-jerk Price action with plenty of noise…albeit in deeply tight ranges.
As we say…there is a reason Institutions and Hedge Funds do not really work in this end-of-year Arena and many professional Retailers do the same!
Fundamentally, our thoughts on generally weak Data across the board came through, and despite a couple of small surprises…really had no effect on Currencies in general.
The “Range Master” still Prevails!
Let’s see if Dollar Yen followed along as well…
When we left Her around 89.88…we have simply appreciated along a nice intraday trendline here to 90.88.
With the current climate we should continue to respect this Line on an Hourly basis.
Our view yesterday still remains valid with possible appreciation to 91.50 Resistance…as it is approximately 2:21GMT as of this Writing.
( click once for capture…Candles rather small today! )
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/yen-hour-fibs.gif
Of course…further down the road…we certainly could see the Bank of Japan stepping in if the Pair, and especially the Yen Itself, continues to strengthen.
In this case, a significant breach below 90.00 may just be the catalyst.
Maybe…
If you are anything like me…the BoJ and its’ Intervention policies are deeply ineffective and have been for years.
We simply ignore them and move ahead….and if we are relatively passe about their concerns…just think of the Yen!
The Unit simply storms right through when we have seen the BoJ work their “Magic”.
We will check on this soon, as I will be with you tomorrow for Intraday Updates…as well as on Christmas Day and all of our Japanese Data that day.
Family not coming in until the 27th now, so I will be around with the dog!…hee hee…
She can sing “Merry Christmas” to me ! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Bank of Japan, BoJ, Fundamentals, hedge fund, Institution, intervention, trendline, USD/JPY, Yen
Data-Point Gridlock and Thin Volume = Volatility…or Does It?
Posted on December 22, 2008 at 21:18 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Hello to All !
As we had with all other Major Holidays all year long all over the world…we have Scheduled News Data Points moved ahead due to Christmas on Thursday.
Primarily, the majority of the Data will be concerning the U.S. and early in the day the U.K…but also a bit of the Euro Zone.
As we have every year on Christmas Day…Japan rules the airwaves with Data all day long.
Now…to get to my premise of today’s title…
Over the past few years during “Christmas Week”…we have the logical cause and effects of Data…but often we will see “underlying sentiment” surprises.
Price Action that one would think would result often does not…and Price Action that does take place is often illogical.
In my view, I find this to be a result of Institutional Sentiment.
One aspect we have to always be aware of during the End-Of-Year climate in all the markets is the idea of differing Agendas.
For us on the Retail Side, we simply focus on Price Action and our various reactions to it.
For the Institutional Side… their Agendas are ones of squaring Quarterly and Yearly Books, covering losses and protecting gains, moving Funds around the various Products they work with, and so on.
As a result, there is occasionally a “skew” in Volume, Volatility, and just general “Behavior” of Currencies as all of these ideas are factored in.
Think about all of the macro-concerns you may have a the end of the year…Taxes, Budgeting, and such for the coming year. The Institutions have similar concerns in closing out 2008 for “their Homes” as well !
Concerning the U.S….and to a lesser extent all others, we should not be taken aback by generally weak Data Points across the board.
The Recessionary aspects and overall concerns of the last few months will not simply take a “Holiday” just because of Christmas and New Year’s!
Since we do have so much Data out of the U.S. and Japan this week, how about a look at Dollar Yen!
On the Monthly, here…even though we always have the idea and question that these “Players” are probably out of the market…the April 1995 Support Base here may cap Price Action in the 79.70’s.
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/yen-v-bottom-monthly.gif
On the Hourly, we have a wonderful “V”-Bottoming formation here that is textbook in nature. Due to its’ momentum “bounce” here…an appreciation to a dynamic Resistance level around 91.50 followed by the 38.2% Fib @ 92.24 if your view is Bullish over the next several Hourly Cycles.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/yen-v-bottom.gif
If your view is Bearish due to the Hourly Bear Flag here…and you are in support of Dollar strength…then a re-test of the “Base” @ 87.00 is probable.
Being mindful of what the Yen is doing in its’ role with it’s own Crosses will give you additional perspective as well.
Perhaps, as always, the real indicator here will be the strength and weakness of the U.S. Stock Market…meaning if we will have our correlations or if we will be unwound and non-correlated.
Let’s see how we progress going into Japan’s “spotlight” Day each year of Christmas Day on the 25th, and we can re-examine Price Action.
Tags: data points, Dollar Yen, financial markets, Institutions, Japan, news, Quarter, USD/JPY, Year, Yen
The Tumbleweeds Have Me!…Back Tomorrow!
Posted on December 22, 2008 at 9:17 in Uncategorized by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Monday everyone!
I do apologize for the delay here…I am on my way back home today through the desert, and the Tumbleweeds seem to be taking over the highway! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
I will be back on schedule tomorrow, and in the meantime…prepare yourselves for some thin Markets with rather range-bound activity.
Queen Sterling Out?…King Euro In?
Posted on December 18, 2008 at 21:40 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings!
What an “eventful” day we had yesterday!…
Crude Oil blows off anything even remotely related to OPEC and cliff-dives into the sea touching under $36.00 per Barrel …
Gold still marches gallantly along…it seems to have its’ shiny metal heart set on reaching $1000 again in the future…
And Her Majesty, the Pound Sterling, contemplates abdicating the Throne to the Euro!
( I can picture my good friend and fellow FXstreet Premium member, Ray …he is gathering fortifications for Buckingham Palace as we speak!…”God Save the Queen or Death!”…http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
When we left EUR/GBP, we were contemplating Price action and noticing the Key to our focus was if Price action would break through significant Resistance @ .9300…or if we would begin a corrective sentiment.
We certainly received our answer, didn’t we!
Here is the same Hourly we have been working with all week…
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-pound-hourly-2.gif
Looking out a bit…despite the ECB possibly pausing its rate-cutting Cycle in January, the Euro continued its appreciation yesterday against the Dollar and our Lady of the Channel as well !
(Gold will be a direct recipient of this overall…as the “uncertain” nature of ECB sentiment will continue to encourage “flight to safety” into Gold and many Commodities…)
Adding a Tool that will be relevant here, such as the oscillator, RSI ( Relative Strength Index), tells us where we are on our Hourly view.
“What?…an actual Tool from CVJ???…Call Interpol…Call Interpol we say!”
All three CVJ Fan Club guys feel it is criminal…since I have never used an Oscillator or an Indicator on the Blog before!
“Off with his Head!” , they say… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Remember, as I discussed very early on in the Blog, there is a time and a place for proper Tool application and this is one of those times.
“Why CVJ?”
Because our original question here is to see if the Pair is due for a correction.
This particular oscillator is relevant to see if we are at an “Outlier” or “Extreme” level in Price.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-pound-hourly-rsi.gif
At the time of this writing…we are coming off of an “overbought” level with a peak at 87.7 and currently 53.7.
Now comes the Key here…
If your view is Bullish…then we may simply be seeing a small correction here to possible form that hourly “triple top” formation for another re-test of the High.
So we continue to wait for the substantial pullback…which again in my personal view…will be the highlighted Ellipse area of .9050.
Now if you are bearish here…you most certainly will wait to see if that re-test actually does come to fruition!
You want to see…just like yesterday..how Price behaves at the re-test Resistance area.
If Price simply fails to breach, you may receive a highly probable scenario that would be complimentary for your perspective.
We have some scenarios here for “Both Sides of the Fence”…
Just don’t get caught on the “Razor Wire” climbing over it!
Tags: crude oil, euro pound, gold, indicator, King, OPEC, oscillator, Queen, RSI, Tool
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on December 17, 2008 at 22:43 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello Everyone!
“Help!…HELP!…I’m drowning!…Somebody Save Me!…”
Did you hear that?”
That was Her Majesty doing Her best to ascend from the depths of the English Channel…
“The Euro has Her pinned down in the frigid deep Blue!”
“Our FX Today Crew is on the scene…so let’s have a look!”
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-pound-daily-bear-flag1.gif
We clearly see the deep appreciation on our Daily view…with clear symmetrical and orderly Price action indicating solid momentum is in place.
Our Bull Flag here is “classic” in form and function. Our Flagpole from .7650 area to .8650 area has clearly “projected” the same appreciation from the bottom of the Flag itself @ .8200 up to the .9300 Handle.
This is, perhaps, the finest example to express my personal viewthat Chart Patterns and Formations are most relevant and valid on the Daily and larger times frames.
Down on the Hourly, we add some Fibs and keep in mind we use our Support and Resistance areas as “”dynamic”…meaning they will “rollover” when appropriate( support becomes resistance and vice versa…according to Price action progression).
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-pound-hourly1.gif
A highlighted Ellipse on our Chart indicates a highly probable area of correction.
We have a small “cluster” of the daily and hourly Fibs here @ .9050ish area that may come to fruition.
The prior Price action is consolidating in nature, so it accommodates our view as an area of reprieve and rest.
While a 300-pip correction is a large move in any market, it is especially so in the Euro Pound.
“So why all the way down there CVJ?…Why not a re-test of Support @ the .9220 area?”
A fine question!
My personal view here is simple.
I find the 300+ pip move to the upside rather “impulsive” in nature…again considering the ATR of the pair.
A gain such as this for the Euro Pound is extreme in my view.
Will it pull back soon?…today?…tomorrow?
I do not know.
What I do know is that for myself…to take another long position here is not advised.
Price has appreciated rapidly in one day, and I will not chase it under any circumstances.
At the same time, I will not initiate a short position as well.
We need to see how Price will behave at this clear Resistance level of .9300…break through or begin to descend.
Tomorrow…we will have a more probable definition of Price, so we will re-evaluate where we are!
Tags: Bull Flag, dollar, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, euro, pound
Did the Fed Shock?…Not in My View and Here is Why
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 22:26 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Wednesday!
( A brief reprieve from analysis on our Euro Pound today… in light of some thoughts I had about how I think about and handle ”External” events in the Foreign Exchange Markets. )
Well…we have it!
The all out Media “feeding frenzy” over the “shocking and surprising” FOMC Rate Cut yesterday.
“Quantitative Easing” aside, the window of a “loose” benchmark of 0%-.25% really should not be a surprise in this case.
While it is historic in perspective…being the lowest level in U.S. history…is it truly a “shock”?
No….and here is why!
If you were observing the markets from a “Trader’s View”, it was simply another day at the office…albeit with a little more volatility.
The Dollar continues to weaken…a “shock” for you?
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-daily.gif
No. You have been working with this Price Action for days now.
Gold surges and has appreciated to an 8-week high around $860…a “shock” for you?
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/gold-daily.gif
No. You are aware of the inverse Gold/Dollar relationship, and perhaps you have been using this to your benefit.
My perspective here is not about the decision to execute or not execute during Data Point Events….that is solely left up to your discretion.
My perspective is trying to not let the outcome completely override the logic and parameters that you had in the first place.
For example…if you are “flat”…do you simply jump in and arbitrarily place a position because of the “historic shocking anticipatory” outcome when the Decision was released?
Or…do you already have a position in place prior to the Decision, and then you immediately close it or add to the trade?
These examples illustrate these “extremes” in emotion and behavior that will become detrimental.
Perhaps not today…perhaps not tomorrow.
But in all certainty they will !
I know I haven’t mentioned one in a few Posts…but what is today’s “Built-In” Lesson?
Try to never be surprised or over-confident about anything in your Trading World.
These “emotional extremes” can manifest themselves in a deep fashion that is usually detrimental to your decision-making process.
Before all of you send me to the “Land of the Margin Calls” or something sinister like that…hear me out!
I am NOT saying to IGNORE any and all information that comes your way…
I am simply saying to try to not let these EXTERNAL events effect you INTERNALLYin a negative fashion.
Just as you can put the car in “Neutral” and ”coast” down the street…you can take a similar stance with your work concerning how you view macro-economic activity.
”Neutral” never really wears out like the rest of the gears in your car, now does it! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Ben Bernanke, dollar, EUR/GBP, Federal Open Market Committee, gold, interest rate, price action, quantitative easing
Time to Ditch the Dollar?
Posted on December 15, 2008 at 21:29 in Uncategorized by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi All !
We are seeing some interesting interplay over the past several days in the Foreign Exchange world.
The Dollar and the Yen are retreating, retracing, correcting, and re-evaluating their strategical stance.
Is this new?…have we not seen this before?
Of course we have!
Currencies do this day in and day out as a matter of transacting the “Exchange” between one another…but this time…it may be a little different.
All of you know by now I am not a bottom picker, top picker, or predictor.
I only have one Master… “Sensei Price”.
One immediate and basic reason we are seeing the Dollar and Yen “safe-haven” Inflows come off is due to the anticipation of a .50bps Rate Cut tomorrow…and the CBOT Futures have literally price-in a .75bps Rate Cut by more than 70% certainty.
The Dollar is at around a 2-month Low against the Euro, and Her Majesty…Cable…sure has come back from the depths of the English Channel,hasn’t She!
What is interesting here is to observe how both the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD are finding their tight correlation again…as well as how their “individual” strengths are playing out against each other.
In MY view…it is more enlightening to see how OTHER economies and currency pairs are reacting to a potential change in Paradigm shift….as opposed to just looking at a Dollar-related pair.
Let’s have a look at the “Battle”, and see where we are floating around…
(click once for the capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-pound-1-hr-3.gif
The Fractal “stairstepping” here really shows us the “Push and Pull” Price action between the two economies.
A test and potential break of the .9000 Handle is possible, although be aware they are surely massive Options Barriers at this level.
For “BOTH sides of the fence”…MONITORING how Price behaves at this level will either confirm or invalidate your view….irregardless of if you are bullish or bearish.
Let’s observe tomorrow if we have any marked reaction to the U.S. Fed Rate.
As always…the Key here is what “Bernanke and Friends” choose to reveal in their Commentary of the accompanying Policy Statement and Minutes.
If they are rather Dovish about “easing”the Rate to “0″, then we have high probabilities for continued Dollar strength in the immediate near-term….signaling a Risk Aversion climate to continue.
If they are Hawkish and assertive, then our new potential “Paradigm” of selling off the Dollar will certainly continue its’ activity of the last several days.
Of course…our current macro-climate of the Markets ignoring virtually all Data Points and Fundamental activity will surely breach all of my “logic” in the first place!
Tags: Ben Bernanke, CBOT, dovish, Futures, hawkish, interest rate, Options, paradigm
The Battle of The Channel
Posted on December 14, 2008 at 22:03 in Trading Ideas by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Monday to All !
As we head closer to Christmas and think of other aspects in our lives, it is appropriate to take things a bit slower and have time for a little reflection.
Our Markets, as we have mentioned before, are beginning to “thin” in volume and increase and decrease in volatility with plenty of intraday noise.
A Currency pair that historically matches this “leisurely” paceis the EUR/GBP…the Euro Pound.
With such deep similarities in all sectors of the economy, the EuroZone and the U.K. enjoyed a constant “Push and Pull” Price action.
Until almost two years ago…
I have always enjoyed working with this pair, and it is where I first began learning about Chaos Theory outside of my formal music composition studies…Beethoven would be proud!
Early on, I was able to really accelerate my learning curve with proper range and pure support-and-resistance trading strategies using the euro pound as my vehicle.
The Pair allows for consistent momentum in most cases, and can be a fine “learning curve” pair in this way.
I would often joke and sarcastically comment on the pair with my dear friend and Primary Mentor, Ed Ponsi, about this daily.
We finally described the pair as the “Pair that was fascinated by watching Paint Dry”.
It was so slow and literally immobile…that the act of watching paint dry was faster than the euro pound Itself!
And then…BOOM!…All Hell Broke Loose!
My playfulness with the Pair was over… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Let’s have a look at the Monthly and and see where this epiphany took place!
(click once for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-pound-monthly-i.gif
A couple of views with the Hourly chart reveal just how “proportionate” and “even” this pair is…there is equality in exchange rate similar to the “horizontal” Fractal areas we spoke of last week on the Pacific Dollar pairs.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-pound-1-hr.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/euro-pound-1-hr-2.gif
Now…if your view is Bullish, you have quite a trend to draw probabilities upon.
As we know with Foreign Exchange as a whole…once we do trend…we usually see these trends sustain themselves nicely, especially with the multi-year Breakout we have here.
Look to the Key S/R areas to “shift and roll over” and pullbacks will lead you on your way.
If you are bearish…you have literally equal probabilities here…at least from an intraday perspective. These same ranges can be used to “Fade” and short this pair in more of a classical Support-and-Resistance manner.
Of course…giving almost double the Pip Value certainly does not hurt either!
A Caveat from the three CVJ Fan Club guys, though…
“As always, define your risk!…
We are using any potential gains to buy that dinner for Ben Bernanke…
If our trade stops out…it is fine.
Paulson can pick up the check…he’s got a few bucks to spend, doesn’t he!… hee hee…” http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tomorrow, we’ll do a brief check of the battle and see how we have progressed…as we await the final FOMC Interest Rate decision in the States of this year, and of the current Presidential Administration.
Tags: Beethoven, channel, Chaos Theory, Christmas, consolidation, continuation, ecomomy, EUR/GBP, Fibonacci, paint, parallel, resistance, support, trendline, volatility
“Flight 4367 from Sydney to Washington D.C now boarding”
Posted on December 11, 2008 at 22:04 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy Friday to All !
Our Vacation Tour “Down Under” has reached it’s final day with our friends the AUD/USD and NZD/USD currency pairs!
We embark back to the U.S. next week, and head to Washington for dinner with our esteemed friend, Ben Bernanke.
CVJ!…We are not paying for Ben again this time!…I hear the Fan Club say.
I remind them they have been buying billion dollar dinners for Bernanke for months now…but that’s another story! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
The Kiwi has continued it’s bullish appreciation here on the Hourly, with our “symmetrical horizontal” Fractals in play here..as well as our conventional Price Fractals.
What we choose to call multiple Bull and Bear ”baby” Flags…are really just Fractal components of Price.
We are still consolidating within the bullish appreciation of the past couple of days, and if your view is Bullish, a solid breach of the daily 23.6% Fib here would be continuing to carry you on your journey.
If you are Bearish, you have a couple of options here: Wait for the above mentioned short-term break and sell into the rally if 38.2% @ .5860 holds…or wait for the medium-term intraday break here @ the confluence of the 50% Fib at the .6050 area.
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/kiwi-double.gif
The Aussie look literally identical, but we will almost always see more Price deviation and activity…simply due to increased currency Order Flows and fundamental size of the Australian economy itself.
Our diagonal Support and Resistance Channel has been appropriate thus far, and this pair as well is vacationing in “Fractal City”…Flags and Pennants all over the Aussie beach here!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/aussie-channel-2.gif
Next week we focus on the FOMC ( Federal Open Market Committee) in the States, and see where we stand with Interest Rates.
Hmmm…something tells me the three CVJ Fan Club guys are going to be spending their pennies on a little more than Dinner next week!
Tags: Aussie, Australia, Kiwi, New Zealand, order flowThe Foreign Exchange Hall of Justice vs. CVJ
Posted on December 10, 2008 at 21:45 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi All !
Well…the Battle for my Aussie PacRim Pair is not going as well as I had planned…
I have decided to take the matter to Litigation…but honestly my chances look rather poor.
Of course…what did I expect?
The Cabinet Members compromising the Hall of Justice are all retired Stock Traders anyway!
( OK all of you Equity Traders!…I still get a blindfold and cigarette before the Firing Squad, right?…)
Now…back to our Aussie (PacRim) Dollar!
We have seen some risk appetite creeping back into view here…hence our Kiwi and our Aussie have appreciated the last couple of sessions…”testing the waters”, if you will.
On our Hourly, we have our “Correlation bounce” in the Aussie with Gold also appreciating and providing a boost today.
(Gold rallied to its’ highest level in two weeks up to an $808.80 High today. As of this writing…we are around the $800 Handle.)
Here is yesterday’s View.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/aussie-hourly-1b.gif
Now…here is a “dynamic” view…with our “static” support and resistance areas.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/aussie-hourly-2.gif
Not too much to add here…despite our appreciation in Price…we still are working in the Range, so our Support and Resistance areas along with Fib confluences can provide opportunities for “both sides of the fence”.
Do I see this rally having sustained effort and resiliency?
I do not.
As I mentioned a couple weeks back on our Gold and Oil Posts…I am deeply long-term Bullish on the Aussie… and for that matter,the Commodities Sectors as well.
However in the near-term I am Bearish.
As we have seen…the Depreciation simply will not evaporate anytime soon!
Now…if I am not back tomorrow…call the authorities.
Something tells me those Stock Traders will not let me out alive!
Hmmm…maybe my Aussie PacRim pair is not sounding so good now…hee hee http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: appreciation, AUD/USD, equity, gold
The New Currency Pair?…AUD/PACRIM?
Posted on December 9, 2008 at 22:34 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi Everyone!
“CVJ…We knew you were crazy…But now you are inventing your own Currency Pairs?”
Of course!…But I have a “Method to my Madness” in this case!
So relax…and do not get the Firing Squad ready for me just yet… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
I explain at the bottom of today’s Post.
First things First!
Let’s check on our Kiwi and see where we are…
I received some fine comments by my dear friends and fellow Bloggers, Valeria Bednarik and Dr. Sivaraman on my idea about being “Wrong” in my analysis yesterday.
Both are in agreement that accepting your error on views and moving on is crucial to long-term success.
(Hmmm…so maybe your friend, CVJ, is not so crazy after all ! )
We now have a new intraday range to work in, and like many examples on the Blog I have given before…we have Fractal Price ranges as well as the “Fractal Horizontal Ranges.”
See how they all are rather proportionate in “Price range” from each other?…all around 75-100 pips in “length” from the Support and Resistance areas.
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/kiwi-hourly-3.gif
Now…about that “new” Currency pair!
Let’s get to a little technical analysiswith the AUD/USD Aussie Dollar Daily view, and see where we are.
I have a general Support and Resistance area of .6350 to the .7000 Handle.
We will need to significantly break the magenta diagonal trend line to really see some Bullish sentiment here in the medium-term…as well as a break or at least multiple tests of Resistance @ .7000.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/aussie-daily.gif
On the Hourly, we have placed a simple swing Low to High Fib sequence where we find some confluence @ the 23.6%.6000 Handle.
The 50% Fib Level may contain us in the near-term @ .6500 Handle to the downside, which is our preferred view.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/aussie-hourly-1.gif
So why do I want to “invent” a new Currency pair?…Here’s why!
Despite the general correlation the Aussie Dollar has with Gold… the more accurate and revealing correlation is with Commodities as a whole!
Who is truly the largest Customer of what Australia has to offer anyway?…All of us here in the States ?
“NO!”shouts the CVJ Fan Club in unison.
( Maybe they are learning something… after all…there’s only three of them in the Club…hee hee…) http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
The Pacific Rim is where the majority of Aussie Exports go…China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc.
( See!…my new Pair…the Aussie PacRim!…as in Pacific Rim…clever, isn’t it!… Don’t answer that! )
My Bearish view of the Aussie is simply due to lack of demand and the economic climate issues hitting that part of the world as we speak.
Remember the “Asian Contagion”back in 1997-1998?
I surely do, as this was when I was beginning my “market” exposure in Equities while I was still a Teacher.
Equities work during this turbulent time was a rapid education in market dynamics!
We could say the “Asian Contagion Part II” may be beginning fundamentally with a slowdown of infrastructure growth all over the Asian world…and until it reaffirms itself…the Aussie Dollar may continue to depreciate.
Remember from a couple weeks back on our Gold posts in the Blog…we are Bullish in the very long-term…hence Bullish on the Aussie as well.
But for now…our current climate may, indeed, prevail for some time.
In the meantime…I am lobbying direct legislation to the “Foreign Exchange Hall of Justice” to accept my new Currency Pair, the AUD/PACRIM !
What’s the worst that could happen?
Oh yes…From the Frisbee Game last Friday…
Not again !!!???
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/cast1.jpg
Tags: AUD/USD, Aussie Dollar, Australia, commodities, correlation, demand, fan club, Foreign Exchange, Kiwi Dollar, New Zealand, NZD/USD, supply
Our Kiwi Dollar Lambs Break out of the Pasture
Posted on December 8, 2008 at 22:13 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem7 Comments »
Happy Tuesday!
“Our New Zealand Kiwi Dollar Lambs have broken out!…Women and Children First!…Run for your Lives!”
First Things First.
My Market sentiment yesterday on our Kiwi Dollar was wrong.
“You were wrong, CVJ?”
Yes.
Wrong wrong WRONG!
I am proud and happy to admit it, and always feel content doing so.
“Why?”
By admitting my mistakes in my trading views, perspectives, and especiallyExecution…I can immediatelymove on and clear my mind for the next potential Position.
Let’s have a look…
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/kiwi-hourly-2.gif
Yesterday, my thought on a re-test of Hourly Support certainly did not come to fruition, and the “last nail in the coffin” for my sentiment was the bullish upside break @ .5320 through .5360 rolling to .5470 and a clean 100+ pip appreciation of the Pair.
“So what now, CVJ?”
“No problem!”, I say…
Remember…my mid-term view on this pair is Bearish…so I continue to wait for a clear violation of the Daily and Hourly major Resistance/Fibonacci area of .5550.
Now comes my “Built-In” lesson and the Key to my view here.
I WAIT and OBSERVE what Price will do at this level.
If it “hovers” and consolidates here, this indicates that we are “pushing and pulling” and have indecision.
This tell us our probabilities for a downside reversal are higher.
If we shoot right through and our “Lambs continuing leaving the pasture” heading north…then I do NOTHING.
“Nothing, CVJ?…How boring!”
That’s right. Nothing.
At this point, I will wait for a clear reversal in Price and not execute until we solidly break back through .5550 to the downside!
In the same fashion that we want to avoid a “False Break” to the upside…we most assuredly want to avoid one to the downside as well!
So once again…we need to Observe how Price behaves up at the .5550 level.
I remind you I still have not taken a position on our Kiwi Dollar, and due to my mid-term Bearish view…I continue to stand aside and be patient.
I will NOT chase a trade and I will not regret NOT taking one, either!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: daily chart, false breakout, Fibonacci, hourly chart, resistance, support, trade execution
A New Movie…”The Surfing of the Lambs”…
Posted on December 7, 2008 at 22:03 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to a new week, everyone!
Yes, that’s correct…
I begin the week with another “play on words” and in this case, one of my favorite films, “The Silence of the Lambs“.
“CVJ!…so what does surfing and a lamb have to do with the Currencies?”
“The Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar!”, I reply…
You know…Surfing off the coast of Australia…and raising Lamb in New Zealand!”
OK OK…so not my finest analogy to date…but you see my point. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
With the recent massive Rate Cuts by both countries and the continuing depreciation in their Commodities Sectors, we will take a look at the relationships between these two deeply correlated currency pairs and their Cross-Rate pair for a few days.
Today we look at the “Kiwi”…or New Zealand Dollar.
We notice on the Monthly a couple examples of the most popular and valid Chartist formations, the Head and Shoulders Pattern (more formally known as the “Three Buddhas” in Candlestick Analysis).
Here these patterns are Inverse…and while they have ”failed” in my view…we do often find on these larger Time Cycles that even when Formations and Patterns are “loose” and not “perfectly” formed, they can still FUNCTION nonetheless.
The “mini” H&S pattern (s h s ) is a clear indicator of the Fractal nature of Price that we have seen numerous times before, and the larger one (S H S) both fail at the magenta-colored diagonal Neckline.
( This also brings up a common misunderstanding…Chart Patterns DO NOT have to be built only on horizontal foundations….we can have diagonal components as well…)
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/kiwi-monthly-one.gif
Down on the Daily, we have a nice Support and Resistance range to work in…but overall sentiment here is still rather bearish.
If you are Bullish, a significant breach of Resistance @ .6050 is certainly needed to see any semblance of “Basing” here.
The Kiwi is being “Jawboned in reverse” already from the New Zealand Prime Minister John Key…who is stating the Kiwi falling to the 0.5000 Handle is significantly probable!
Ofcourse, this will help Exports…but for how long?
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/kiwi-daily-i.gif
On the Hourly, our range is clear and we will see if we head to .5000 before we head north to .6050.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/kiwi-hourly-i.gif
If your view is Bearish, any upside retracements that may present themselves are grounds for Selling in my view.
This is due to the NZ economy as a whole, as well as the strong correlation to Equities sentiment.
Falling Commodity demands and the massive Current Account Deficit are not doing our “Kiwi” Dollar any favors…so that .5000 Handle doesn’t seem so elusive, does it!
All of the Wool that is exported and The Lamb on my dinner table sure isn’t providing the desired stability needed…
And…
Well…
We know what Hannibal Lecter thinks now, don’t we!
“Hey!…Little Bo-Peep!…That’s my Surfboard!…Get your own!” http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: AUD/USD, Australia, commodity, current account, export, lamb, New Zealand, NZD/USD, Prime Minister, Silence of the Lambs, wool
NFP Friday is for Frisbee!
Posted on December 5, 2008 at 4:34 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Happy NFP Day to All!
A relatively short Post today, as we our Non-Farm Payrolls Data Point Release today.
As I mentioned in yesterday’s Post and a few instances previously…I do not actively participate in NFP as a “Trading Environment”.
I am actively engaged, though…as I am with every other Data Point that comes our way.
Last month I hosted the NFP Live Q&A Session on the FXstreet homepage, which was fantastic…and as always, I do my normal analysis of whatever Currency Units I happen to be involved with.
In fact…the Non-Farm Payroll Topic was the very first Blog Post I was involved with!
My good friend and a primary mentor of mine, Raghee Horner, asked me for some thoughts on her Chartology Blog a few months back, on the “First Friday of the Month” as a whole.
As always…my “Built_in Lesson” for today is to adhere to your Risk Management.
Watch your Position size…tighten your Leverage…and remain deeply Vigilant.
As I have said before…just because your Platforms are open…does not mean you have to take a Position!
Have a fine weekend, and we will check in on Sunday for the Sydney Open and see where we are.
In the interim…I’m off for some “Frisbee Football” this weekend…otherwise known as “Ultimate Frisbee”.
Of course…we play the “Old School” way!
Here’s how!
1) Just mix this…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/nfl.jpg
2) With This!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/frisbee.jpg
I will see you on Monday…but ONLY if I do not look like…
THIS!!!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/cast.jpg
Hee hee hee!… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: currency, Data, Friday., Frisbee, news, Non-Farm Payroll, raghee horner, risk management
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on December 3, 2008 at 22:55 in FXstreet Premium Thoughts by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi everyone!
Let’s check on where we are with Crude Oil after a bearish day yesterday and the release of the Crude Inventory Data.
We find our thoughts in yesterday’s Post to still be valid.
We are still bearish in sentiment with Crude Oil in the near-term…as seen on the Hourly view.
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/oil-hourly-wolf.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/oil-monthly.gif
The Monthly view is again in concert here.
Despite Commodity Inflows dramatically decreasing of late, we still maintain an upside Correction is highly probable off in the distance.
This is certainly not right around the corner…we are off the highs on Crude $100 after all…with no signs of slowing in sentiment.
My view of “Fair Value” here is several years out, and I arrive at my subjectivity in this fashion.
The $80-$95 Range seems a logical compromise between what Supply can support its’ work upon with providing Product to the world… and what Demand can self-adjust with and find contention.
Does “Compromise and Cooperation” work in the markets?
Every second of every day in the Trading Pits and Floors around the world.
It is the true Essence of Trading itself….finding “Fair Value” for both parties all day long.
Now…concerning today’s Title…
(The “Crazy CVJ’ers” Fan Club has arrived Stage Left…)
“What’s wrong CVJ?…Are you ill?…Did Godzilla eat the truck yesterday?…Why no witty story ?…No funny analogy?…No animated antics today?”
”Oh no!…All is Well!I have simply hit the “Mute” button on Myself.”
“What does THAT mean?”
It is Genius Week!…Crystal Ball Week!…The Powers-that-Be will shower their Wisdom upon the Masses!
We have Central Bank Rate Decisions due from the BoE and ECB…
We have a deeply high probability of another dismal Non-Farm Payrolls Release on Friday…
Earlier in the week the RBA “Down Under” cut a full Basis Point with perhaps more easing to follow…
RBNZ at 5% for our Kiwi friends…
Well let’s see…Who’s Next on that List?…another Central Bank we know of? http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
In these times, we see Currency Market action grind down to a literal halt while we quiet down and await massive Data Points to be injected into the Markets.
When we have “cluster” groups of Releases like this…it is not a trading environment that is needed…by ME!
I emphasize this point because this is where knowing myself and my Trading “Style” really comes into context when it comes to Foreign Exchange.
I will monitor and adjust my work in other Markets as well as open FX positions, but I am simply choosing not to participate in this Market environment over the next couple of days with any newSpot OTC Currency positions.
Period.
Will I be tempted by high volatility?…perfect dynamic Price action?…missing the finest trading opportunities known to Man?
No.
Period.
You may do as you wish.
Do not listen to me or do as I do.
There is someone more important to always listen to…
Yourself.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Australia, crude oil, currency, Data, fxstreet, interest rate, inventory, New Zealand, nfp, Non-Farm Payroll, Premium, Price, session, spot market, volatility, webinar
Is Godzilla drinking our Black Gold?
Posted on December 2, 2008 at 22:19 in FXstreet Premium Thoughts by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Hi to All !
Today I would like to introduce a somewhat semi-regular Feature on the Blog!
In a joint effort with my friend and author of the “Forex Advisor” Blog and Resident Advisor right here on FXstreet, Valeria Bednarik, I will be doing a Crude Oil Post a few times a month when necessary.
Now…A Caveat here.
I will not always be referencing our Crude/Canadian Dollar correlation criteria, as I feel it is important to see Crude Oil on its’ own merits.
Most of you know I enjoy correlations, but in this case…I would like to use these particular Posts for what we actually correlate with!… Crude…the Dow…S&P 500…Gold…etc.
So let’s check on “Black Gold”…Crude Oil, and then we will follow up with “Godzilla” and our Dollar Yen analysis from yesterday.
We have been speaking quite a bit about both of these Units lately in our FXstreet Premium Sessions, so I thought I would combine them today.
(click once for captures and remember…this Chart is the January 2009 front month Futures, so yours may vary a bit…)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/oil-daily.gif
Crude Oil continues its’ massive “Inverse “V” Top” Reversal on the Monthly view ( not illustrated), and we continue to slip and slide down the Ski Slope here.
Even though we have a Daily chart here…you can clearly see the Market sentiment!
The “Bear” is insatiable here…so stop feeding him your Crude! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tomorrow, we have the weekly Crude and Distillates Data Points released @ 15:35GMT by the Energy Information Administration.
With a touch of a 3 1/2-year Low yesterday @ 47.36 on the NYMEX Crude Futures…do not expect a massive appreciation here in Price per Barrel.
The Hourly below simply verifies our views and perspectives.
OPEC can do what they want and say what they want.
Crude Oil is largely ignoring any Fundamental Body and their activity anyway!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/oil-hourly-wolfwave.gif
Now…let’s see how our buddy, “Godzilla” (USD/JPY) is doing rolling through Tokyo!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/yen-daily-3.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/yen-hourly-3.gif
Well…there you have it.
One “Big Black Monster” (Crude) that is depreciating moment by moment….
One “Big Green Monster” (Yen) that is appreciating moment by moment….
Hmmm…is there a relationship there somewhere?
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: commodity, correlation, crude, Dow, gold, oil, S&P 500, USD/CAD
Hey!…isn’t that Godzilla?
Posted on December 2, 2008 at 4:02 in Trading Ideas by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi All !
Well…today we catch up with our old friend, the ”Big Green Monster!”
The “Harbinger of Doom!”
The “Bringer of Mayhem and Terror!”
“But CVJ!…do you mean that Monster from the movies?”
“No!”, I reply…”The Japanese Yen!”… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Once again my friends…our Risk Aversion scenario is seriously back on the table!
Did we really think the big “everything-will-be-fine-Rally” of the Dow and the S&P 500 Indices last week would make us feel all warm and fuzzy inside?
Of course not!…but our worldwide Media would surely have us believe this.
And once again…they go home disappointed from another Manic Monday!
(Here it comes…the “Crazy CVJ’ers” are back to support me in my world famous Rhetorical Questions…)
“But are WE disappointed???”
NO!
We are Traders…and do not consider such media content in our criteria for working with Price action and Exchange Rates.
The Japanese Yen continues to move along with the Dollar due to safe haven inflows of being the lowest yielding Currency Instruments.
As always…if we were in a Risk Appetite climate…we would be focusing on the Carry Trade concept and selling Yen off by the boatload.
Instead..we continue to have Fear and Insecurity…translating into Risk Aversion…which translates into buying Yen by the boatloads.
Either way…a pretty heavy Boat!… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Now..the ideas floating around that I alluded to yesterday are that the Bank of Japan is becoming suspect of such strength in their own Currency.
When we see this, Intervention by the Central Bank is certainly a possibility.
The strong Yen is deeply detrimental to Japanese Exports as a whole…despite the overall benefits to various sectors of the economy.
So we have a conundrum here that the BoJ needs to keep a watchful eye on as we move along.
Now…lets move onto the USD/JPY Dollar Yen itself, and see where we ventured from the Sydney Open Sunday and all day Monday.
Here we are back on our Daily view, and I kept my Symmetrical Triangle intact to emphasize the downside momentum we saw today.
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/yen-daily-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/yen-hourly.gif
An Update a few hours later…take a look about 10:25 GMT…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/12/yen-hourly-2.gif
There is a high probability here that we will, indeed, see these retracement corrections to the upside here….and we are seeing it begin in the recent hourly candle above in the Update.
We’ll see if it prevails this morning as we move along.
Remember…with strong unidirectional momentum…we will lose energy and need to rest a bit…just as if we were descending the mountain.
Do you ever notice how much more difficult it is to walk down the mountain than it was to climb it?
Our equilibrium is off balance, and we need to be much more attentive so we do not fall and tumble.
Our Yen strength is “You and Me walking down the mountain all day long”…we need to take a rest at one point.
In my view…I will continue down the mountain after I rest…as I am a “Bearish” climber with my buddy, Godzilla.
I personally think he is hungry for a Test of the Fib Low there @ 90.90 on our Daily view!
If you prefer to be a “Bullish” climber, then make sure Godzilla has a handle on Tokyo around the 96.00 Resistance handle and above!
Our Big Green Monster needs more of the City to devour…so let’s see which direction he heads in!
Hmmm…I better make sure the Nissan Truck is in the garage!…hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
All of this comes down to the impatience of developing your own Learning Curve.
Many are simply not willing to do the due diligence and the work that it takes to arrive at some “Consistency” in Trading in the first place!
Winning or Losing is irrelevant at this stage of the process!
Besides…without consistency and knowledge in your Tool Box…which one of those two truly has the higher probability? http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
P.S. - Tomorrow…we take a look at the USD/JPY…the Dollar Yen…and see where we are in current Price action.
Here is a Daily view, so be sure to click once for the Capture.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/yen-daily.gif
We have some interesting factors in the wind from Japan, so let’s see where our technical analysis take us!
Tags: analysis, dollar, Japan, patience, TV, us, Yen
Watch the Skeletons tomorrow on Black Friday!
Posted on November 27, 2008 at 17:44 in Uncategorized by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
I will be returning to the Blog Sunday evening for the new week.
In the meantime, watch Price action across the board tomorrow…the “Skeletons” we spoke of on Monday may surely be appearing with Low Volume equaling High Volatility….or Low Volatility equaling greater probabilities of breaking out of the quiet directionality we are seeing.
For the past few years…”Black Friday”, as we call it in the States for shopping…is really meant for all of us in the Currency Markets!
We have seen some intense noisy action take place in the past, and with today’s muted Sessions across the board…we may see breakouts revealing themselves.
Watch your Leverage and Lot size, and move ahead cautiously.
Or…do what I’m doing…have a turkey sandwich and watch a little College Football tomorrow!http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: black friday, breakout, leverage, Lot size, volatility
Euro Chocolatiers on the Rise…Will my Swiss Chefs Prevail?
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 22:45 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemComments Off
Hi All !
Well…our battle has been fierce between our tumultuous FXstreet Live Sessions Manager, Maud Gilson’s Belgian “Euro” Chocolatiers, and my Swiss “Francs” Chocolatiers!
Who will emerge from the “Battle of Flanders” victorious?…and have the finest Chocolate in the World?
Let’s get right in there for current price action…and be sure to bring your Strawberries to mop up some Chocolate with!…It has been messy on the Battlefield so far!… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/euro-swissy-daily-highlight.gif
As the Supreme Swiss Guard in command, I am directing my Chefs to hold the line here.
We are in process on the Daily of losing a bit of ground…and I am “allowing” the Euro chocolate makers to prevail within this macro Bear Flag here.
My simple strategy?… General Maud’s Chefs do not KNOW it is a Bear Flag!…and a reversal off of the Fibonacci areas @ 1.55 is very probable!
The “Cluster” areas where the 23.6/38.2% @ 1.5218/39…and the 38.2/61.8% @ 1.5059/25 from these two Lows on the October 22 and November 12 are possible points of Test.
I will re-evaluate my tactical stance if these areas are seen.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/euro-swissy-hourly-maud.gif
Now…General Maud’s Belgians are advancing to the next set of trenches here, and Her Euro Chefs are really producing chocolate in consistent quantities on this uptrend from the November 12th Low.
Now…what happens when your Troops have such strong consistent production?
The Chefs get tired!…and Maud’s Chocolatiers showing signs of fatigue are certainly probable here!
We have given them a good “run for their Confectioner’s Sugar” here…with the intense Hourly battle of the last few days.
Her strategy may be the exact strategy I am doing with my Chefs now!…except in “Reverse”!
She may simply have them “pullback” to the Fibonacci clusters…regroup…gather more supplies of Sugar, Butter, etc….and resume their uptrend ascent!
Two staunch Tacticians here..both having strengths and weaknesses of their own…
General Maud of the Belgian Chocolate Command…a native to the area and master Chocolate Taster…
Supreme Swiss Guard Tim…who lacks in native experience with his Swiss Chocolate Chefs…but has Objectivity that lacks Emotion in his favor!
Time will only tell who prevails in the “Battle of Flanders”, and who really does have the “Best Chocolate in the World”…
“Do not worry…we will keep you updated on FXstreet TV News…live at 11p.m. all over Europe!”
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
P.S. - Thanks to all for the kind comments about my animated perspectives and “stories” in the Blog!
I try and make the Posts light-hearted and enjoyable, while expressing crucial concepts and ideas about the Markets and Currency Pairs as a whole.
Please keep your comments and questions coming, and let me know what you are interested in as Topics. Again…I would like to “steer” the Blog in directions everyone is interested in!
Tags: chocolate, currency pair, EUR/CHF, euro, Foreign Exchange, FX, stop loss, Swiss Franc
The Turkey ran off with the Houses, too!
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 10:21 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
An update, everyone!
Our Turkey seems to be insatiable before the Thanksgiving Holiday…I guess Durable Goods was not enough for his appetite!
Running away with New Home Sales at the worst levels since 1991…he has plenty of new construction to gobble up, doesn’t he!
New Home Sales off a good 20K since last month, down to 433K units sold.
Our macro Indexes…Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment clock in at 33.8 and 55.3 respectively…indicating the overall economic “contraction” continues on its’ destructive path.
Clearly today’s Data Points are simply more verification of what we already know…that the United States economy as a whole is still in dire straits…hence Global economic health is moving right along with it.
Our Turkey may go to table tomorrow…but with these Numbers today…He may continue to eat in the “afterlife”… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: economy, global, Home Sales, Index, real estate
U.S. Durable Goods eaten by the Thanksgiving Turkey
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 9:07 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi everyone!
An intraday update on the slew of Data Points coming our way today…starting with Durable Goods clocking in at a -6.2%,and ex-Autos at -4.4% !
“Somebody call the Paramedics!”…
We have the largest decline here in two years….better get the Cardiologists to come along, too….
Of course…no real shock here as Americans surely are not in the BMW or Viking Appliance purchasing mood lately, now are they!
The Majors see a small spike in appreciation due to Dollar weakness, and Gold and Crude also appreciating nicely on the “overall news package” as well.
Initial Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditures looking relatively in line with Consensus..but weak nonetheless.
The true “key” here in my view is the continuing lack of consumer confidence with the Personal Income and Personal Spending numbers.
Relatively in line as well…but could this simply be a “outlier” of the coming Holidays and the time of year?
Month-over-Month Personal Spending up from a -0.9 consensus to a -0.3. A positive sign?…of course not!
We are still negative here…that’s what the little “-” is for!… :-)
Personal Income in line, but in the longer-term view…I personally cannot see this continuing.
The continual shift in declining Employment is not going away anytime soon.
Let’s see what the Managing Indices bring us with Chicago PMI and the Michigan Index due in under an hour…..and then New Home Sales @ 15:00 GMT.
Hmmm…want the New Home Sales now?…I can probably give you a rather accurate idea….hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: data releases, economics, news trading, us
Fortify the Garrisons…the Chocolate Battle begins!
Posted on November 25, 2008 at 22:26 in FXstreet Premium Thoughts by Tim SalemComments Off
,
Well…the “Battle of the Chocolatiers” is about to commence!
You have the Belgian “Euros” on one side fortifying the garrisons, and the “Francs” of Switzerland preparing their strategy for attacking the trenches in Flanders.
What do we really have here?
Like the Euro Dollar and Swissy Dollar…we have two Armies both fighting for Supremacy of the Chocolate ( Foreign Exchange) Landscape!
As we covered yesterday…both are very similar, but are on opposite sides of the “Price Direction” battlefield.
Let’s take a look briefly at General Maud’s Belgian Euro battlefield, and Supreme Swiss Guard Tim’s Swissy battlefield and see where we are…
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/swissy-chocolate.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/euro-chocolate.gif
See how “vertical” the Flagpoles of the Swissy are?…not quite as “choppy” in Price action as the Bull Flagpoles on the Euro.
Volume here is a defining Factor in the differences between these two Units.
As we already know, the “Inverse” correlation between these two is high but not EXACT.
If they were, we would have true retrograde inversion in their Directionality.
So what elements make up these two Economies to make them different?
In the most basic view and for simplicity’s sake…Switzerland is a massive Importer of Minerals and Energy, since the majority of the country is beautiful landscape. The Swiss economy is almost “uni-lateral”…in that what it imports, it will process and resell on the Open markets. The primary Product Complex here being Chemicals.
Obviously, Banking and Insurance are vital to their economy and their heritage.
The EU, on the other hand,is much more of a complex and “multi-lateral” Economy…in that it imports and exports and produces literally all criteria of Goods, Products, and Services.
With the 27-member “Nations” feeding their individual economies into the Euro, it is not surprising that the EU is the largest Exporting “Entity” in the world, and the 2nd largest Importer.
We see these elementary fundamental differences by observing the characterstics of Price action within the individual Units.
Tomorrow…we take a look at the where the ”Battle for Flanders” is progressing by watching the Chocolatiers “cross” their Spatulas and raise their Double-Boilers for battle in the Euro Swissy ”Cross” pair! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Here’s a current view of the action…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/euro-swissy-daily.gif
P.S. - By the way…if you stop into the Webinars today… tell Maud her Euro Chocolatiers are winning!… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
P.S.S. - Just don’t tell her my Swissy Chocolatiers have been winning for the previous few months in that lovely downtrend!…hee hee…
Tags: EUR/USD, EuroZone, export, Flanders, garrison, import, Switzerland, USD/CHF
Which is Better?…Swiss or Belgian Chocolate?
Posted on November 24, 2008 at 22:13 in FXstreet Premium Thoughts by Tim SalemComments Off
Greetings!
Today’s title comes with a story for you!
“CVJ!…What does Switzerland, Belgium, and Chocolate have to do with trading?”
(Yes..I heard the “CC”s” too…I have named them…the critics I refer to all the time who “talk” to me in the Blog…they are the “Crazy CVJ’ers”…hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
I have a rather simple answer for them.
Our FXstreet Live Sessions Moderator/Manager and my dear friend, Maud Gilson, is from Belgium.
We have learned a great deal about each other’s countries in the Webinar Rooms and FXstreet Premium sessions in the past few years, and lately we were talking of the massive debate on who has the Finest Chocolate in the World.
Of course, Maud says Belgium hands down, and refers to specific practices and Confectioner’s Shops that make the Belgians superior at the practice.
Maud buys her Chocolate with Euros.
I choose Swiss Chocolate…and since I have never been to Switzerland, I can be objective, and say my view is full of ”Neutrality”…just like Switzerland.
If I visit Switzerland one day, I will be buying my chocolate in Swiss Francs.
( OK, “CC’s” in the audience…jump in now and tell everyone where I am going with this! )
My back story here is focusing on how Maud and I are both buying chocolate, so our “Correlation” is very high.
The Correlation is not EXACT, as we are buying different KINDS of chocolate.
Maud=Euro and Tim=Swissy…
Highly correlated…but different!
My “built-in” Lesson today is very similar to our Commodities/Currencies correlations from last week…but even more direct.
The Euro is by far the most popular currency pair for Retail traders to work with…especially newer traders.
It encompasses the most volume, and garnishes the most “weight” of Price activity.
In my experience with the learning curve of most new traders, the”inverse” correlation of Euro/Swissy is by far the first example they will learn.
This also becomes the most overused and misunderstood correlation as well…more on this tomorrow.
Let’s look at Monday’s Price action with both Units on a couple of different time frames.
Let’s see howPrice action looks in context to each other….
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/fiber-1hr.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/fiber-daily.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/swissy-1hr.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/swissy-daily.gif
The “catalyst” here arrives following Price action continuations extending from Friday, bolstered by the Citi Corp news, and Obama’s little Press Conference.
(My Caveat again…like I said Friday…these are irrelevant to me, as Technicals told the story.)
You will immediately notice the Inverse correlations between the Euro and the Swissy, but again…the correlation is not 100%.
It seems many take this for granted and always assume that if the Euro is rising, the Swissy is falling.
Let’s keep a mindful eye on Price as we move from the Asian Session into London and beyond.
Tomorrow, we will consider what specifically makes the Euro and the Swissy inversely correlate…by looking “inside” the Currency Pairs and their Economies.
It may not have anything to do with the “Battle of the Chocolatiers” in the trenches of Europe…but it is interesting!
It may even be more interesting than the “Chocolate Battle”… just don’t tell Maud! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Begium, chocolate, correlation, euro, price action, Swiss Franc, Switzerland
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on November 23, 2008 at 22:51 in Commentary by Tim Salem1 Comment »
Welcome to a new week everyone!
A new week…and the beginning of the “End of Year/Holiday Volatility” season that we work with each year.
The analogy with today’s title refers to the “Skeletal” view that we have during this time.
We begin to see the major Institutions, Hedge Funds, Entities, and Banks begin to “Thin the Herd” for the run up through the new year.
Senior Management and Traders begin their holiday and vacation plans to take time off, junior traders and customer service personnel are left at the dealing desks, and what is left is the “Skeletons” of the Firm…and the transparent “lower trading volume” that comes with along with it.
This year may just be entirely different…the World’s trading entities have already begun “Thinning the Herd” to the point of having overgrown pasture with the 5-6 Cows left to graze the planet’s financial landscape!
So what does this mean for us?
Under previous ”normal” conditions during November and December, we usually see light volume of the Major Market participants bringing along plenty of volatility, noisy whipsawing, and large intraday swings.
Yes…I do hear you.
“But CVJ!…We are seeing that RIGHT NOW…and have seen that scenario for months!”
I am shedding a few tears for all of you…I am so proud!
You guys are sharp! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
With the President-Elect beginning to assemble his incoming Cabinet here, we heard on Friday and “saw” a major catalyst for Dow strength, Gold strength, and Dollar weakness in the probable choice of New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner as the Secretary of the Treasury.
This is what the world Media would have us believe.
But…as Traders…we know better.
In my personal view…we were simply reaching key technical levels in the Dow below 8000, a touch under 800 in the S&P, as well as most Major currency pairs where a paradigm shift was literally imminent.
As we always say, we cannot continue in a uni-directional path forever.
This scenario is a good analogy for our “Skeletons” emerging view with Market activity in the next 6 weeks.
We will see unexpected impulsive volatility that will be based on seemingly mundane Data, sentiment, rumor, or fact.
It is as if the final Quarter of the year is always under increased magnification.
Remember…Entities that have billions of dollars to try and square in the Books by December 31st will go to the Markets of “least Resistance”…just as the flow of Water.
They find these “Portals of Opportunity” right here in the Foreign Exchange markets.
A quick recap of Gold from our visit on Friday.
Our thoughts about pushing towards $760 surely came through, and we blew past this level onto the key area of $800-808 per ounce.
It appears we may simply have a “false break” here, as the previous consolidating in the larger Triangle gives us a “market memory” to visit again and say “Hello”.
Additionally, the macro-Consolidative Price actions of the entire month provides additional sentiment to visit $770 a clear Support here.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/gold-4-hr-mon.gif
It turns our that our “physical” Gold buying friends we spoke of on Friday are still on task, indeed!
The World Gold Council stated the purchase of Coins and Bars to be at a 10-plus year high in the 3rd quarter.
Hmmm…maybe “CVJ’s crazy thoughts” on Gold during Friday’s Post aren’t too off the Mark after all…
OK…now all of you owe me a Drink! …hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
I would like to encourage those who subscribe by email, and those who do not directly subscribe to the Blog, and all of the superb Blogs here on FXStreet, to have a look at this Link for the solutions to using the RSS Feeds.
It is deeply expedient…and much more convenient than email.
I mean…C’Mon…how many more emails do you really need in your Inbox each day? http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
http://www.google.com/support/feedburner/bin/answer.py?answer=79408
Tags: bars, coins, currency markets, Majors, resistance, support
Why I still Love my Nemesis…Gold
Posted on November 20, 2008 at 22:13 in Trading Ideas by Tim Salem1 Comment »
Welcome to Friday, Everyone!
OK…a quick update on the “Pretty Metal Lady” from Wednesday’s deeply volatile day!
While Gold was slightly bullish and relatively stable….the World around Her certainly was not!
(But hey…what does She care, right?…According to our “story”…She’s in Australia grilling Shrimp with new boyfriend, I.M.A. Hedge Fund! …hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Volatility and Risk Aversion still rule the Day…so how did Gold handle it?
( click once for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/gold-4-hr-2.gif
Our Symmetrical Triangle we identified yesterday continued its’ coiling throughout the Asian Session, and broke north a good 20 Bucks to form a “mini”-Bull Flag, as I call them.
We can see the Fractals here, with our “building blocks-within-building blocks” idea, and if the current directionality continues… a push to our Resistance area of the $760’s is highly probable.
( Remember…Support and Resistance are “relative” in my personal view, so I consider them as active ”areas” or “ranges” that function as Key Levels. Price is not stagnant…so why should areas that define it be? )
Remember our Monthly View?
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/gold-monthly-41.gif
The Technicals of the Fibonacci retracement itself confirm my Bullish view…Plain and Simple.
But I know all of you want the big singular Argument!
“CVJ!…Tell us more of your crazy thoughts!”
In which I cordially reply, “It will be my pleasure, and thank you for inquiring!”
With global assets continuing to deflate, what have the Central Banks of the world economy been doing?
You’ve got it…cutting Interest Rates!
Our Fed, and our friends in the EuroZone and the U.K. will more than likely continue to do so, and how do we “counter” moves such as these?
We “offset” and liquidate Asset Classes to meet Margin Calls. Gold is one of the Tools to do just this. But in a “counter-intuitive” fashion in our current climate.
I say this because Gold certainly has not functioned the past few months as the traditional “Safe-Haven” security blanket like you had as a child.
(This is where our friend, I.M.A. Hedge Fund, comes in! While he’s off in Australia with Gold…what are all of his Hedgie Friends doing around the globe?)
They are de-leveraging by meeting massive margin Calls using Gold, as well as other “Hedging” instruments, to cover other poorly performing Asset Classes they may have.
This is translating to an impressive increase in “Physical” Gold buying, as the Supply continues to strain.
Supply constrains…Price expands…Economics 101.
Now here comes my token DISCLAIMER!
All of you know by now I tend to hold longer-term views on most things…including Trading itself….meaning “A Scalper I am Not”.
I enjoy the Macro-View, and also realize any of the “actions” that take place will take months to digest and reach their fruition.
My Bullish Gold view is no different.
We are not seeing Gold as a “hedging” against Inflation in this current climate just yet…but our “Physical” Gold purchasers I mentioned above would respectfully disagree.
Our own Fed Minutes stated that “More agressive easing (by Central Banks) should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome”.
As soon as the easing ceases, and our Hedgie Friends around the globe stop liquidating everything but their Summer Estates…Gold should rise and appreciate in value, as well as the AUD/USD…the Aussie Dollar.
When?
“I have no idea….and I do not NEED to know because I REACT to…”
Well…if you have followed the Blog daily…you know the rest. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Asset Class, AUD/USD, central banks, deflation, hedge fund, inflation
The Other Woman I Love…Gold
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 22:41 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Hello Everyone!
Today…we move on to my nemesis…my ex-girlfriend…Gold!
I’m doing OK with it…ever since she ran off with I.M.A. Hedge Fund…you can only cry for so long, right!http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
So what is the reason for the fallout with the “Other Woman I Love”?
It was her evil twin brother…his name is Flight to Quality.
( OK OK…I’ll stop with my big soap opera! All of you need to tell me when my animated writing just gets to be too much! )
In all seriousness, Gold is arguably the First Currency of human civilization.
It’s Role in the annals of time are well documented, and will not be considered here. So down to business for our needs here in the Foreign Exchange world.
The correlation between Gold and the Australian Dollar is one of the highest historical correlations that we have in all of Finance.
The correlation has hovered up to a massive 96%…usually averaging around 86% more or less.
We find this correlation primarily as the Aussie Dollar really can be seen as a “Proxy” for Gold, as these first two Captures below illustrate.
(Remember…just as with Oil and the Loonie…consider Gold and the Aussie as two separate Instruments with their own individual characteristics. The Gold/Aussie correlation is even higher, so we really need to be mindful of seeing them on their own merits!)
The great vast land of Australia is the worlds’ third largest producer of Gold, as well as a leading economy for the production of all Metals in this Commodities Complex.
South Africa is the world’s second largest Gold producer…and who is #1?
CHINA! …something my FXStreet Premium South African friend, Boykie, is none too happy about! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/gold-monthly.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/aussie-monthly.gif
We notice a significant “unwinding” in the correlation here the last few months, don’t we?
See how strong Gold is?…how resilient it has remained?
It has simply not continued to slide down to the sea as the Aussie has, but has had plenty of consolidating “Push and Pull” Price action within itself.
This is where our “safe haven” nature comes in…HISTORICALLY, at least! This certainly has not been the “pure” relationship that it appears to be!
Gold has lost more than 20% of its’ value since the March 2008 Highs…so it may not quite be the strong “Safe Haven” we would like it to be.
In its’ most simplistic form…when we see “Fear” as a sentiment racing across the Financial Spectrum, we see see a “Flight to Safety”, or a “Flight to Quality” into Gold as an Asset Class.
We are trying to “hide and preserve” the integrity of our inherent value, so we will convert our Funds into Gold.
Of course, these relationships are deeply complex…but for our needs here, I am trying to be as simple and concise as possible.
Let’s start with a little basic Technical Analysis and see where it may lead us…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/gold-monthly-2.gif
( Once again…that Masked Marauder is back who says things do not work! First it was Markets have no Memory, and now Fibonacci Analysis is invalid…OK..we need to get this guy to open his eyes and take off his Mask!…hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Onto the 4-Hour, where we can clarify some Triangular Consolidating Patterns.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/gold-4-hr.gif
OK…now the really fun part!
Are you not going to ask me what my Bias is?
Just like my “wife”, Crude Oil…I am Bullish on the ”Pretty Metal Lady” over the long-term.
“Not AGAIN, CVJ!…Bullish again?”
I hear you, I hear you…do not revolt against me just yet!…
Just as with Crude…I will provide a singular Argument for you in defense of my position tomorrow.
In the meantime… I bid “Good Day, Madam!” to Gold.
Her new Beau… I.M.A. Hedge Fund, is sweeping her away for a long weekend.
You guessed it…to Australia. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: China, commodity, correlation, crude oil, FXstreet Premium, gold, hedge fund, Metals, proxy, safe haven, South Africa
CPI comes in Bleak…but Reactions take place for other Reasons
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 10:01 in Commentary by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Hi everyone!
An IntraDay update for you!
Our U.S. CPI data pointswere dismal, as our large economic spiral continues into the Abyss.
Expectations here on total CPI were 0.2% Month-over-Month, and 2.4% Year over Year.
“Close…but NO Cigar!”, as we say…
Remember, these are INCLUDING Food and Energy…which will usually give a little stability since we use these items daily in our lives.
Stability?…I think not!
Month over Month fell off of the mountain coming in at -0.1%. This should not be a surprise to anyone out there in the States that has gone shopping.
Year-over-Year brings along additional confirmation with 3.7% as opposed to our estimate of 4.1%
We simply are just not buying any non-essentials…so this paradigm will be reflected in a larger chasm with what we are paying in retail prices and actually measuring in Price movements.
Our Core…minus Food and Energy was a bit more in line with 0.1% vs. 0.2% estimated…and Year-over-year clocks in at 2.2% vs. 2.4%
Now…here is the Key, in my opinion.
Did the “breaks” we saw and Dollar weakness come into play due to CPI being off the Mark and negative?
No !
It is my belief…and has been for weeks and weeks….that our Markets are simply ignoring any major Data Point releases.
We simply have too high of correlations to the US. Equity markets, the Dow, S&P500, etc. and our Currency work has been reflecting the overall Risk Aversion that has been blanketing the World.
Please be mindful of this…
Remember…the Markets are largely “counter-intuitive”, so as Traders we must adapt to the “Prevailing Winds” that blow our way!
Tags: Consumer, CPI, Data, news release
Crude Oil and I…A Marriage?…or a Passing Fling?
Posted on November 18, 2008 at 22:49 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings All!
Today’s Post is a long one…so go get a drink and your reading glasses!
Let’s see how my fair-weather Wife, Crude Oil, progressed in our market analysis overnight through Tuesday’s Close.
We bring up our Hourly View again, and it is clear if your were of the Bearish sentiment…you were correct.
Bias remains to the downside here, and our lower Support level of 49.90 is still deeply in sight.
(Now, keep in mind these Charts represent the December Crude Futures Contract…so your Charts may vary by a few fractions of a Cent, or Ticks. Interestingly enough, this Contract expires tomorrow…which gives us more ammunition to the downside…)
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/crude-hourly-3.gif
Our overall “sentiment” really has not changed “technically” in the last day.
We still have a wide berth for a corrective retracement here…but I will say this: 49.90/50.00 will most likely be reached before we see this corrective directionality.
Oil is down 60% since its’ $145 peak in July, and is certainly poised to continue falling. All we need to hit our $49/$50 levels are continued Dollar strength, and another collapse in the Dow. The Yen Crosses such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY will also follow, providing additional confirmation.
This will certainly bring the mid-$40’s in sight.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/crude-hourly-4.gif
Now…let’s get to all the large Macro Socio Economic Neo Political Geographical and Historical Criteria of Crude Oil, and see where we land!
( OK…try saying all of THAT 10 times as fast as you can…) http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
I know…I can hear all of you saying in unison…
“But CVJ!…We have a brilliant idea!LET’S NOT!”
Fine with me!
I will attempt to sculpt all of this down into a singular view of “Why is that crazy CVJ Bullish on Oil?”
While in the medium-term, I do believe Crude and Commodities as a whole are still due for depreciating value…I do not see this lasting forever. After all, what are Commodities? They are largely things we humans need and consume.
Crude Oil is the “Consumer King” of them all!
Now…while we continue to work on all sorts of alternative energy resources and such, I personally do not see these solutions as viable in the near-term…even when they come to fruition and are practical and adopted on a global scale.
These macro-factors will take 40-50 years to really clear the “consciousness” of the World to adopt, and perhaps a generation longer.
I use one Example here for my Bullish argument.
The TATA Automobile Company.
“The WHAT, CVJ?”
Tata. This is India’s largest vehicle manufacturer, but you should know it for another reason:
It bought Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford for $2.4 billion earlier this year!
What…never heard of this? The American Media kept this on the QT?…under the table?…beneath the sheets?
I’m shocked, I say…SHOCKED! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
The Tata “Nano” is the new Indian flagship “sub-compact compact” car that is geared towards 45 million Indian citizenry and their Motor-Scooting ways. Not to mention the other 230 million “middle class” folks who may find the automobile attractive for their needs.
The Nano is a cute little thing… it makes that new “Smart Car” look like that stretch Limo-Hummer you took to the Opera last week.
If I ever get to India to visit a couple of my Trading Mentors and fellow-Bloggers, Sunil Mangwani and Dr. Sivaraman, we will have to drive around in one!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/800px-nano-300x225.jpg
The Key?The $2500 price tag!….well within reach of tens of millions of Indian, Asian, African, and other populations looking to ditch the Rickshaws and Bicycles!
So, to me, this singular event will translate itself into a surge in Petrol demand, as well as Crude and all of its’ other Distillates in manufacturing and transporting all these little “Matchbox” Cars all over these economies.
That is my argument for being Bullish on Crude Oil in the macro-long term. Simple and concise.
While we look for the alternatives and move ahead with our lives…we have to remember those in the “emerging” world economies are moving ahead as well.
Prime Example: Just because the Olympics are over in Beijing…does not mean China has closed up shop and went back to the fields!
DISCLAIMER!
Please do not go all “Earth Day” on me here.
Please do not send me an Anthrax postcard or something…or…Heaven forbid… even worse…
A “4X Made Easy” Course! …hee hee… :-)
Please be mindful here…that these are just some thoughts on my part based on common sense and the logistics of Supply and Demand over a really long-term Cycle!
I have no idea what Crude will do in the next 3 minutes…much less the next three years.
Again, as a Trader, I do not NEED to know. I simply have to have movement and Price action to REACT from.
My friends and personal Mentors hold the same view. When you have an “arsenal” of resources to work within the Markets properly…it becomes a matter of trying your best to choose the right resource for the task at hand.
Are we always on target?…always correct?
Of course not!
But the Key is having your Risk Management criteria in place at all times, as this will cushion the damage of choosing the wrong resource and ill-advised opportunity you presented to yourself.
So bring on the Questions and Comments as always!
Tags: AUD/USD, Aussie Dollar, Australia, China, correlation, demand, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, growth, India, supplyOur relationship may be “Crude”…but it works for Us!
Posted on November 17, 2008 at 21:26 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi everyone!
OK…back to the First Lady of my love Triangle…Crude Oil!
( Yes…Gold will be fine…she’s cheating on me anyway…with some guy named I.M.A. Hedge Fund… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Monday, we saw Price action continue to weaken..about 2% or so off of Friday’s Close.
Our massive area and Round Number “magnet” of 50.00 is right around the corner, so as we spoke of yesterday…it is certainly within reach.
As I always do, let’s begin with our Monthly view and move in from here.
We have a nice yearly “parabolic” shift here…in that our Key Levels one year ago are still relevant this year.
(Who was that Masked Marauder who said markets do not have a Memory?…)
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/crude-monthly-1.gif
Let’s zoom into the Hourly, and dissect Price action and some Key intraday Levels a bit more…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/crude-hourly-1.gif
So we have a couple of probable options here. although that little consolidating hourly channel there before our swing higher may still play a factor.
Below, I have used a “Fractal” Tool, the Wolfwave, which clarifies even more our potential Key levels of direction. Our nice wide channel here is necessary, as we have had plenty of volatility of late in our “Lady of the Black Gold”.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/crude-hourly-2.gif
In the Macro-long term…I am of a Bullish view with Crude oil….for several concrete reasons.
We will get to these Fundamental issues tomorrow.
In the interim…let’s see where we fair in Crude…and just see if our retracement and correction areas do, in fact, come into play!
P.S. - If you see Gold…tell Her she owes me for dinner last week.
I.M.A. Hedge Fund can take Her for dinner from now on!…hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Fibonacci, gold, magnet, number, oil, round, triangle, wolf wave
A Woman I am in Love With…Are We Breaking Up?
Posted on November 17, 2008 at 2:16 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »
NO…it’s not what you think!
I did get your attention, though!
The particular Lady I am referring to is one in which we ALL have a love/hate relationship with…similar to a real relationship, I suppose.
Her name?
OIL!
I thought I would spend a few Posts on our relationships and correlations with Oil and Gold…the two most related Commodities to our concerns in the Foreign Exchange markets.
The derivatives that most apply here for us are the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar….so today, let’s focus on the USD/CAD and Crude Oil as a relationship.
We all are aware of the deep correlations between these two…Crude Oil and the Canadian Dollar have correlated in the macro-term approximately 81-82% over the last several years.
In fact, many Futures and Commodities Traders will use Crude Oil as a “leading Indicator” in their work with the Canadian Dollar as a Futures Contract…as well as in their OTC Spot work.
(Yes…you guessed it. CVJ’s “rhetorical question”…)
So why shouldn’t we???
“A fine idea!”, I hear many of you say… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
First things First, though…
I would like to focus purely on some introductory basics of Crude Oil today, as it is such a heated topic worldwide. We will continue on with other aspects of this relationship as we progress.
With the U.S. Dollar being the reserve currency for Oil around the world, it would make common sense to us that when Crude rises, the Dollar itself will fall. Conversely, the same is relatively true.
We can see with these two Chart captures, we have a very strong “Inverse”, or opposite, relationship.
(click once for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/crude.png
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/cad.png
Here is a multi-year Overlay Chart of the Loonie and Black Gold that shows this relationship quite well!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/oil-cad-overlay.png
Beautiful, isn’t it?…and for me…the real beauty here is despite popular belief and assumption…these two are NOT one in the same!
Simply look at the Price action here. We are not correlating 100% of the time.
I have heard in too many cases that trading the Canadian Dollar…is actually trading Oil.
I have heard in too many cases…”Let’s have a look at Crude Oil”… in direct reference to a USD/CAD Chart.
Again… NOT the same thing!
Crude Oil only has about 18-22% of the overall “Basket” of criteria and value that goes into USD/CAD’s exchange rate.
Does not the vast country of Canada do other things?…or does all of it’s inherent value in its’ currency come from a singular source…Oil.
Of course not!
This is my “built-in” Lesson for today.
Whenever you are looking at a Derivative…whether it be a Currency pair, a Commodity, a Bond, an Index, and so on…
Be sure to see the Instrument on it’s own merit. Learn about all of the factors and criteria involved that make up the elements of the Instrument.
P.S. - Tomorrow, we will look at some Crude Oil Technical analysis, and discuss some of the Fundamental heated ”flashpoints” surrounding our beloved Black Gold.
We’ve seen about a 6.6% decline from just a week ago, and testing the massive $50 area this week looks highly probable.
Love her or hate her…She will not be Ignored!
Sort of like that person sitting next to you at the breakfast table every morning!…hee hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: black gold, Canada, Canadian Dollar, commodity, crude, economy, energy, oil, USD/CAD
Ahoy There, Your Majesty!
Posted on November 13, 2008 at 20:47 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Landlubbers!
We are back again on the trail of Her Majesty, the Pound Dollar, as She flails around in the Atlantic!
After our steep depreciation of the Unit…we did see a bit of a reprieve, as She strengthened towards the NYSE Close.
But..was that the Royal Navy helping her in the water?… or a “Merry Band of Jolly Misfits” ???
Yesterday, we were beginning to suspect a retracement was looming in the distance.
Remember…like all Derivatives in every market…nothing will fall or rise forever.
The catalyst really arose from correlations we have with the Dow bouncing off of the 8000 handle, and a bit below…along with the S&P500 bouncing around 800.
Also, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at a 7-year high did not help the prevailing downtrend here, either.
In the case of Cable…a strong 380-pip or so move to the upside was the result.
So…here is my “both sides of the Fence” view..as always for you.
If you are Bearish…again…you will look for momentum to begin to stall…especially if this “mini” Bull Flag on the Hourly continues along.
If it does not reach its’ fruition and follow through…then perhaps it will test its’ own High of the “Flag Pole”, and begin to fade.
If you are Bullish, then this “mini” Bull Flag is in your favor…and at this time in Price action…if it continues…the Flag will complete around our 3rd Magenta Resistance Line.
If this is violated, then our larger Resistance of the 1.5260/23.6% Fibonacci Area is next as we climb up the ladder.
(click once for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/cable-hourly-fractals.gif
As always, remember the ultimate “built-in ” Lesson of my Arsenal…
You do NOThave to take a position here. We are going into the weekend after another deeply volatile week.
Whatever you choose…Job #1 is adhering to your Risk Management! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Dow, Navy, NYSE
Is it Time to find another way across the Atlantic?
Posted on November 12, 2008 at 20:05 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Hi All !
Well…we were on the mark with our thoughts on Cable yesterday…and the Quarterly Inflationary Report confirmed our views even more.
Perhaps it’s time to find another way to communicate with each other…as our Trans-Atlantic Cable is slowly being consumed by the Abyss.
Her Majesty is swimming to shore as we speak!
The GBP/USD continued its’ inherent weakness, and continued selling off in favor of looking for a new job in DollarLand and the YenZone!
Again…and I cannot emphasize this point enough…DollarLand (U.S.) and YenZone (Japan) are not exactly looking like the poster children for stable economies…so what gives?
My two new favorite words of the largely the past year: Risk Aversion!
The world flight into the low-yielders of the Dollar and the Yen continues to grind along, and I’m right there grinding along with them.
For our Lady-in-Waiting, Her Majesty…the next major level of Support is at 1.40 looking out long-term.
But do we really need to look out into the Abyss very far?
With an Average Daily Range of 383 pips on this particular Platform… 900 pips is not too far off.
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/cable-monthly-selloff1.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/cable-monthly-atr.gif
In looking at both sides of our “Fence” here, let’s see what we can come up with.
We have some clearly delineated “Zones” on our Hourly chart if your view is Bullish.
We have a POTENTIAL Retracement Zone to work in here…
If you are Bearish…then you would look to the Fibonacci levels to keep your patience, and wait for probable opportunities to Sell into Strength.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/cable-hourly.gif
So let’s see where our Cable ocean swim takes us tomorrow!
Do not worry…the Queen is swimming along just fine….http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
P.S. - Do not forget, everyone, that I attempt to post here on the Blog so it reaches all of you around 1 or 2GMT.
This is around 6 p.m. my time in the U.S. southwest, 1-2 a.m. for our U.K. and EuroZone friends…and 10-11 a.m. for our friends in Asia and the Pacific Rim.
Please keep this in mind as you read each Post with my “open-ended” analysis…as I try to reach all levels of Traders and all styles of Trading.
Let me know your thoughts here, and keep the commentary and questions coming! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: abyss, Atlantic, inflation, zone
Is Her Majesty in Her Twighlight Years?
Posted on November 11, 2008 at 21:34 in Commentary by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Greetings Everyone!
A quick note from our look at the Fiber the last couple of days…have a peek.
Earlier today, we did manage to break out of our Hourly Symmetrical Triangle to the downside.
Now, we are in a bit of a Bear Flag situation, and appear to be quietly moving into consolidation…so be mindful of this as we move into overnight work in Asia.
(click once for captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/euro-consolidation.gif
Now…let’s move to one of my “favorite”, yet neglected pairs of late…Cable!
Early in my learning curve from Equities to Currencies, GBP/USD was the “hot” pair at that time. It really had the spotlight in the same fashion that we see the Yen Crosses today.
Full of volatility, and ripe with an “independent” spirit, Her Majesty always tends to follow Her own way…
Except these Days….
The U.K. economy has worn and tarnished Her like a bad London Tabloid…so much so that She appears to be entering her twilight Golden Years!
Wait for it…Here it comes…
Or IS She ??? ( I know all of you readers were waiting for the “CVJ rhetorical question” …hee hee… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Let’s consider a few things before we get to a Chart.
The Inflationary concerns in the U.K. are tantamount in importance!
We have the massive Quarterly Inflation Report due in about 8 hours my time, and what will the Bank of England say on the matter?…when we may possibly see inflation falling to 2%…
Perhaps we will hear some concrete and strong rhetoric, as Risk Aversion is certainly in play here.
Does Her Majesty look happy to you?
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/cable-monthly.gif
Let’s see what the Daily brings us…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/cable-daily.gif
…And back to the Monthly…giving us a strong technically-correct view of Support-becoming-Resistance- becoming-Support again at 1.5000.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/cable-monthly-ii.gif
So…be mindful of the Report at 10:30GMT, and we will see where our Price action presents itself.
I’m sure Her Majesty will be watching!… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: British Pound, Cable, Her Majesty, Sterling, United Kingdom
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on November 10, 2008 at 20:29 in Trading Ideas by Tim SalemNo Comments »
I bring up this allegorical reference to famed American Poet and Writer Dylan Thomas for a specific reason.
OK..maybe not an “allegorical reference”…
OK OK…I stole it already!…Relax! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
The actual title is “Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night”, and I simply substituted a little meaning here as we move into the Asian Session overnight my time.
We still have our friend, the Euro, …coiling, winding, grinding, and consolidating away…as we did about this time yesterday.
Our Symmetrical Triangle pattern is still very much in play here, so what can we gain from this boring tedium?…this lack of activity?…this “Quiet” movement into the Night?
(click once to enlarge capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/euro-coil.gif
We really have a non-tradable event at this particular time. We really are not doing anything…irregardless of your particular directional bias.
(Personally…I see the pair as Bearish…but again…this is just ME!…I’m only one guy…so don’t be lazy and pick your OWN direction! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
See! This is where my cool play on words in the Title comes from!
We WANT to go gently into that Good Night!
We WANT to move quietly and carefully into our Good Night!
Today’s “built-in” Lesson is in many cases…you will learn more about your own trading learning curve by simply observing. Just because the Platforms are open in front of you…does not mean you actually have to trade!
So…while we wait for the pair to make some decisive action…we do the most COMPLEX and DIFFICULT task in all of Trading throughout History…
Nothing.
So… crack open a good book of Poetry or something…a little culture will not kill you! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Dylan Thomas, night, trading
St. Benedict was Right
Posted on November 9, 2008 at 19:59 in FXstreet Premium Thoughts by Tim Salem3 Comments »
Welcome to another week everyone!
I often spend time catching up with my FXStreet Premium friends over the weekends, which got me to thinking about some of the thoughts we may have as we go into a new Trading Week.
A thought that came to mind was “Hope”.
As a “lapsed” Catholic, I am certainly not an expert on religious doctrine, but being involved formally in classical music and fine art has taught me quite a bit about Music and Art History of the Western World through the ages.
For some reason, I was thinking about Trading and a Monastic life….(perhaps because trading really is solitary….and in the end…it becomes You and Yourself…)
St. Benedict came to mind, and a basic tenet of his teachings jumped right out at me.
The concept of “surrendering the Will and surrendering all Hope” I found intriguing with the Monks.
To paraphrase…Benedict’s view was that “Hope is the enemy of Peace of Mind…as is Fear and Greed. These are a hindrance and a distraction.”
Let me explain.
When we “Hope” for something….wishing for it to happen…we are desiring to a particular outcome. We are acknowledging that something is not quite right.
See where I’m going with this?
In Trading, we may do this quite a bit. We execute a position, only to immediately HOPE for it to go our way!
My thought here is if we do this right away…we are already questioning the validity of the trade, and also acknowledging we are not quite as secure in the trade as we may have liked to be.
My little “built-in” Lesson for today is to try and be mindful and fully aware of the reasons you are taking and executing a Position.
Make sure it makes sense to you…and is simply not filled with untenable emotions.
Our Fiber (EUR/USD) is a fine example of “Hope” possible coming into play with the pending break of the Triangle…have a look!
(Click once for capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/euro-symmetrical.gif
Now…are we going to “HOPE” that Price breaks to “our” favored direction?
Or are we going to follow St. Benedict here…and simply let it follow its’ own nature? http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: belief, benedict, Catholic, euro, hope, religion, saint
Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage
Posted on November 7, 2008 at 10:39 in Market Analysis by adminNo Comments »
Tags: nfp, us
Live Session Tomorrow Morning for NFP…Stop by for free Pips!
Posted on November 6, 2008 at 20:11 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings All !
I sincerely invite you to join me tomorrow morning at 13:00 GMT/08:30 EST for the Coverage of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Release…Live from the FXStreet Homepage!
Estimates coming my way are a Loss of 250-300K Jobs, with the underlying Unemployment Rate shooting up to around 6.5%.
Will we see these figures?Who knows!…..but come by anyway for a visit!
I will be giving away free pips to all who enjoy trading the most volatile and explosive Data Point we have in the Foreign Exchange world!
OK…I know I know I really KNOW!…
I can hear all of you now…
“CVJ! … Enough with your comedian act!Keep your day job!”
In all seriousness, though…there are so many lessons about Trading that can be covered in this one Report every month…we can go on for days.
When we see this kind of heavy negative weight and sentiment globally, our NFP estimates should come as no surprise to anyone! … (unless, of course, I ran you over that weekend with the Golf Cart…http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Many newer Traders are deeply attracted to the speed and quickness of News and Data releases in general, and this is the King of Kings!
After a couple weeks of getting to know a bit about me and my Trading views in this Blog…I’m sure many are somewhat aware of my actions on NFP Day.
If not here it is:
I do nothing.
Nothing in terms of executing a position before, during, or after the Numbers and Data are released.
Now my caveats…
I truly and sincerely have nothing against this Day!
I do not speak ill of those who do trade it, or any other news for that matter!
I have simply developed my position of being an “Observer” out of my own trading experiences and growth.
I attempt to tailor my work as clearly and logically as possible, and I simply find too many variables with most News Trading views for MYtaste.
I simply prefer other ways and other types of criteria to work in the markets.
Have I seen it traded successfully?Of course!
Month in and Month out.
Right here on FXstreet, we have Wayne McDonell’s NFP Webinar that I have viewed literally every month since it’s inception. There were about 28-30 of us in there for several months…and how it has grown!
Many other fine traders and personal Mentors of mine also work with News Events in one incarnation or another.
Some that come to mind are Ed Ponsi, Derek Frey, Jerry Furst, Tom Flora, Dustin Pass, Raghee Horner and so many others in literally all asset classes!
Here is the “built-in “Lesson for today that I garnished early on in working with and/or observing all of these Traders:
They do something very simple.
Very clear.
And…very effective.
They REACT to the release…and they do not anticipate it.
They have their Risk Tolerance and Management in place PRIOR to any data hitting the News wires.
They have a clear and logical view and PLAN ALREADY IN PLACE for the “sentiment” of the Data….and they FOLLOW it!
…And here is the Key…the Magic…the SECRET!….to working with Data Points….
The DATA fits THEIR criteria and analysis…NOT the other way around!
No FORCING a position here…No firing off a trade just for the sake of wanting to trade…
Interestingly enough…see how all of these Principles can and do apply to ANY type of Trading activity?
Beautiful…isn’t it! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: adp, data point, news release, news trading, non farm payroll report
Golfing on the Euro Driving “Range”
Posted on November 5, 2008 at 23:02 in Trading Ideas by Tim SalemNo Comments »
OK…let’s get one more thing straight.
I do not play Golf.
I have played the game a few times…and just like most ”weekend warriors” do… we drive the Golf Carts around, have a few libations, and run people over.
I just thought another analogy would convince you of my wit and humor.
I know I know…it’s not working… http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
When I was considering the quiet and muted Market “hangover” from the Presidential Election, and the often-muted action we go into ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll Report each month…I thought of one of those days you hang around on the driving range of the course instead of shooting a full front or back Nine.
Our Daily chart of Fiber (EUR/USD) gives us a clear view of our massive downtrend, and I threw in some Fibonacci levels for reference.
(Click once for Captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/euro-daily.gif
I have some intraday support and resistance levels of this Range here that would be ideal to work in…
We may continue this type of Price Action as we move closer to Friday, so take a look. The “Outliers” also provide extreme areas of the sideways “Range” channel, providing for more potential opportunity to work in.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/euro-daily-2.gif
We have a day and-a-half worth of Hourly candles here, so let’s see if they play out.
Of course…we may get strong breakouts on either side and blowout the Range itself as well as the Outliers.
With the ECB Rate Decision eminent, this is certainly a possibility we must consider. But…it also reinforces our “muted and quiet” rangebound view for now.
Remember from a Post last week…I advocate always to be aware what the “other side of the fence” is doing…
Anything is possible, so look for a highly-probable opportunity with your risk tolerance in place here…you do not want to run yourself over with the Golf Cart! :-)
Tags: euro, euro dollar, Fibonacci level, outlier
Tags: Barack Obama, change, election, emotion, human, John McCain, PresidentSuccess with our Pound Yen Selling Opportunity
Posted on November 3, 2008 at 23:24 in Trading Ideas by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Our initial 3-Lot position taken this pair after the Sydney Open came to fruition nicely!
The Fibonacci “anchors” I had in place within our support-and-resistance Channel served their purpose well on our Hourly chart.
I do this quite regularly…as I like to “hide” and “feign” targets and exits around these areas, and not precisely on them.
I also regularly work in the markets with various Lot sizes and amounts.
With the current volatility of this pair and the Yen Crosses in general, I prefer to scale out of the position and protect gains along the way…in this case, in “thirds”.
(Click once to view the capture)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/swing-final.gif
So…you may ask…was it worth the wait?
Was it worth holding to my long-term Bearish view?
Remember…despite our nice hourly bullish Channel of last week…I had to hold true to my View and follow my own criteria of ONLY selling into strength.
It was following my conviction and discipline here that resulted in a well-planned and logical position for a 673-pip gain.
I am a firm believer in allowing Price action to move in a natural state, and giving it “breathing room”.
My “built-in” Lesson here?
Try to allow your positions to follow their own natural course.
Have faith in your technical levels and the analysis that gave you those levels in the first place.
The Market gave them to you…so use them.
Confidence can often give you the little edge that you need to reach that final exit. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: Lot size, scaling in, scaling out
Our Pound Yen “mini” Bull Flag negated…
Posted on November 3, 2008 at 11:56 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
Here’s is an updated Chart of our Pound Yen Price action we were observing yesterday before the Sydney open.
The little Bull Flag that we were considering was negated here, and a position was taken within the Range Channel I built from the Fibonacci levels.
The Sell was initiated at 161.17 with our Stop -loss above the hourly high here @ 163.34.
Exit I was reached at 160.21 and stop moved to break even.
Exit II was reached at 158.84, and stop moved again.
We will let Her run to our final exit of 154.44, which is a “tweak” above the Fib level at 154.33 on this Platform.
Will we reach it?….who knows!
If we do not…is that OK?What is the worse that could happen?
We will be stopped out back up at 158.84 with a nice 2-Lot position with a 233 pip gain.
So let’s see where we fair as we move along !http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/swing-channel-bull-flag-2.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/swing-channel-bull-flag-3.gif
Tags: Bull Flag, exit, Lot, negated, stop loss
A selling Opportunity for GBP/JPY on the way?…Let’s Investigate.
Posted on November 2, 2008 at 16:00 in Trading Ideas by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Today’s post will touch on some analysis and thoughts on why I did not even take some fine analysis signals to sell the Pound Yen pair last week.
Even on Thursday evening my time…we were seeing some fine selling signals coming out of the bullish channel of the Bear Flag.
Here is an Hourly Bar Chart that will show our 1000-pip swing high and low off our bullish Channel within the larger recent Bear Flag.
(Click once to view the Captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/swing-channel-1.gif
We has some basic confirmation here with our Relative Strength Indicator being at”74″ indicating an “oversold” condition.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/swing-channel-2.gif
Surely this Price action fit my overall bearish view quite nicely!
” So what was it this time, CVJ?”…
Well here it is!
As in so many cases, we will have counter-swings in Price action in an attempt to return a little “equilibrium” to strong uni-directional Price action.
My thought is this:
We turned at a key Fibonnaci level of 61.8% @163.82 of an hourly downleg there…so in MY view…a re-test of this level is possible to form a little double-top going into the Sydney Open on Sunday afternoon my time.
If this occurs…(and I have NO IDEA if it will due to our massive opening gaps of the past several Sundays), …I will look to possibly execute a position to continue my bearish view, and resumption of the Bear Flag Daily pattern we are in. So what do we do? We wait.
So why didn’t I take the first signal from last Thursday?
A couple of thoughts here…
1) The momentum “strength” of the bullish channel signaled to me it may continue on, even after the “swing” channel correction that we did see…
2) Since Price is built of Fractals… I was thinking a “mini” Bull Flag building here…which indeed would continue our bullish channel higher…
These two reasons gave me pause in executing a position anywhere within this Channel.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/11/swing-channel-3.gif
So…I will wait and see what Price action brings us.
My “built-in Lesson” for today?
Sometimes Patience is difficult, and it is easy to “feel” as if you missed an opportunity.
The Lesson is to try your best to remove the word “Feel” from any aspect of Trading.
The positon “felt” good to take… I “felt” I should go with a hunch… I just “felt” like taking a trade…
You get my point. Remove this word from your Trading Plan.
It will benefit you immensely in the longer-term.
P.S. - I will, indeed, get all of you my “Anatomy of a Trade” post later in the week on my Pound Yen execution from Monday October 17th onwards through that week.
Let’s see what the U.S. election tomorrow brings us.
It should be interesting!http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: opening gaps, pound yen, Sydney, trade execution
GBP/JPY…and Why I did Nothing over the last Two Days
Posted on October 31, 2008 at 1:00 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »
We end the week taking a look at the position I actually did execute using our Pound Yen example.
What position did I execute?
My position of Nothing.
Being Flat.
Zero.
How did I accomplish this amazing feat of discipline?… LOL
I will tell you!
Since we defined my rationale and view with yesterday’s post as being Bearish…my criteria was I could ONLY sell into strength.
(This is “my” Rule here….it works for me as I prefer to have concrete criteria in my trading Plans…I do not deviate from them.)
These two charts show where we are as of this writing, and illustrate some Price action that supports my Bearish view.
(Click once to view the captures)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/bullish-channel.gif
( Sorry…4-Hour Chart here…as you can see…)
“But CVJ!…Why did you not trade within that bullish Channel?…”
You know…I am glad you asked!
“Here’s why!”
Look at the Channel….see the noise and chop of the fractal Price action?
Now…how many times would have I been stopped out of maintaining my Bearish view?
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/pound-yen-5k-downtrend.gif
The massive Daily downtrend was Price action I simply would not go against!
Insert “built-in Lesson” here:
This DOES NOT mean you can’t!
I am deeply sure many Traders have worked within this Channel beautifully over the past couple of days…believe me!
Many of my personal Mentors I have worked with prefer this exact “contrarian” view….meaning a view that is going counter to our larger trend.
It is all about what you are completely and instinctively comfortable with.
For me…it was about where I saw the global strength on this Chart.
We have a 5000+ pip downtrend over the course of one month…..or we have a 2000+ pip uptrend over the course of a few days.
Which was stronger to me?…Which had the higher probability for MY comfort?…
The Downtrend.
So that, Ladies and Gentleman, is why I did nothing.
And that is why I continue to monitor the pair and wait…wait for what is comfortable for me.
P.S. - Of course, I cheated a bit……because I did not tell you what I did on the pair LAST week…more on that next time…http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: bearish, bullish, contrarian, counter trend, pip
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on October 30, 2008 at 4:52 in Trading Ideas by Tim Salem4 Comments »
Yes you can!…and that’s what today’s topic is all about!
We can continue to use our Pound Yen example we have been working with this week. After the FOMC cut the U.S. Interest Rate by .50bps…we did see some dynamic Price action…or did we ???
The continuing formation of our macro Bear Flag rolls along, and our actual Flag really developed into a nice Channel.
Beautiful Bear Flag (Bearish).
Beautiful Flag Channel (Bullish).
BOTH Sides of the Fence! http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
When we see major data releases, we usually have some anticipatory thoughts on the matter. The Fed Decision was no different. Well…you must know my feelings on the matter by now.
Hold? Hike? Cut?…
It’s irrelevant to me…from a Trading perspective…
Remember…I try to REACT…not predict.
If I am bearish….I will continue to follow the “criteria” of our Bear Flag…looking to use key price levels for high probability selling levels. The Fibonacci retracement would be an effective tool for our needs…as seen here.
(Click once to view the captures)…
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/pound-yen-50.gif
Now…if I am bullish…I will look for opportunity on a higher time cycle such as the Hourly…as seen here with our Channel.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/pound-yen-50-2.gif
( …and of course…we saw the bullish scenario develop nicely as we moved along…reaching 162.90’s as of the completion of this writing…)
OK OK… I know what all of you want to know… “Well CVJ…what side of the Fence were YOU on?”
Here’s where today’s “built-in Lesson” comes in…
I still maintain my Bearish view. That’s right! I missed the whole upside swing here!
So…to maintain my view and focus, I only look to sell into strength here.
You may be saying, “But Tim…look at the opportunity you missed here today!”…
The Key here is I actually missed nothing.
I gained everything by sticking to my conscious Choice.
Try to remember…An Opportunity is only lost…..if you were aware of it and did nothing in the first place…
Tags: federal reserve, fomc, interest rate, opportunity, predict, react
…And what a Breakout it Was!…
Posted on October 28, 2008 at 21:50 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem4 Comments »
Yesterday, we were discussing a few components of how I approach some basic analysis with a couple of the Yen Crosses.
The flight to quality and safe haven aspects of the Yen and the Dollar had given us some deeply strong downtrends to work with, and we were looking at selling into strength in a coiling range. But first…we needed to monitor a potential breakout situation of our price action inside of a common chart pattern.
My “built-in Lesson” yesterday was my principle of not knowing when we would see this coiling and building of energy breakout of the flag/pennant formation we were in.
(Technically…we really do have ascending triangles here…I just call them flags or pennants…as in these cases…they are functioning the same. Just a matter of semantics, I suppose, but you get the idea…)
Well…we certainly have our answer, don’t we!
(Click to enlarge the Captures…)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/pound-yen-breakout.gif
Our Pound Yen example illustrates this point beautifully, ( Euro Yen is virtually identical…), as we actually stimulated the break to the upside a few hours after I wrote yesterday’s post. Our little magenta Arrow signals the bullish candle breakout of our pattern.
I left yesterday’s support and resistance range intact, and simply drew in another area.
Often, we will see these horizontal “rectangle” levels…a support and resistance pip range… be proportionate as well. It is very similar to our vertical proportionate Price action with the Fractals. The same “building blocks” idea.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/pound-yen-breakout-fibs.gif
(Of course, our retracement did not actually “complete” there on the 50% Fibonacci level…but was simply “resting” there, but the level was still a clear magnet for Price…)
We even heard throughout the day a “Return of the Carry Trade!” from the news media.
Well… in my opinion… a one-day upside break does not a Carry Trade make!
That’s OK, though…as we all know, the media has to have something to say and have a story. That does NOT mean you have to listen to it.
My “built-in Lesson” today is this:
Listen to youranalysis!
It might not be as attractive as the ladies on the business channels….but surely it will be more dependable for your needs. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tags: breakout, business, carry trade, flight to quality, range trading, safe haven
As we go “Fractally” Along…
Posted on October 28, 2008 at 0:47 in Trading Ideas by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Todays’ title refers to an analogy of sorts…
Walking down the “broken and shattered” brick Road of the current global climate…. and having that Road built up with rather orderly and logical building blocks called Fractals.
Those of you who know me well are aware of my experiences with the Yen Crosses as some of my favorite instruments to work with .
While they certainly attract all the worker bees to the honey with their volatility and potential….there is a major downside here. You guessed it.
The “Sting”!
One of the ways I begin my analysis of these pairs is always looking for macro-patterns on the Monthly and Weekly charts, moving progressively down to an Hourly.
The Crosses, despite their empirical ATR and volatility punch, do have rather orderly factors built right in. As with all derivatives and units we trade…they are made up of Fractals.
A Fractal is generally “a rough or fragmented geometric shape that can be split into parts, each of which is (at least approximately) a reduced-size copy of the whole,” a property called self-similarity.
For our purposes….let’s just say a bunch of little stair-steps all over the place!
On the two examples from yesterday….our opening gaps were filled in nicely, and you can clearly see how these little “building blocks” brought us to the quieting and consolidating Price action we see now.
(Please click to enlarge the captures.)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/euro-yen-fractal-300x211.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/pound-yen-fractal-300x211.gif
I have drawn in our “Bear Flag/Pennant ” formations here, as well as some general support and resistance in this little range. These will signify a continuation of price action. You can see the “Fractal” grouping getting tighter and tighter…..like a Coil.
What happens next?Pure Physics. These Coils will begin to tighten as we move along, and this energy will need to be expelled…so a breakout here is imminent. In classic technical analysis, this will occur at the “apex” point of the formation here. Does this always happen? No.
You say, “So Fractal Boy… when will Price actually break out?”…
I have no idea! It is what is, and I accept it as such.
( hee hee…and you thought I forgot about my “built-in Lesson…)
While I personally do not trade breakouts, I do observe them and react to them.
It is this type of concept…the coiling…the building of energy…the falling volatility… that is an Options Trader’s dream!
So why not use them in Currencies as well?
The Option players are nice guys…..I’m sure they will share with us!:-)
Tags: bear, coil, energy, flag, fractals, options trader, pennant
A New Week…So What Now?
Posted on October 26, 2008 at 20:46 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem3 Comments »
We have simply had perpetual cyclical continuation in the Equities markets as we move across the world from Sydney back around to Tokyo each day. The continued height of the “bouncing ball” of noise and chop across all markets seemingly gets higher and higher.
Weekends usually bring us market “reflection” and the ability of a little time to see what we have done, and where we may be going. In this case, perhaps many took a peek over the weekend at their own financial affairs. Some probably made some calls to their Brokers and Advisors…their Astrologist…their Clergy…or anyone else who could ease the pain.
Translation?A Continuation of Fear and Uncertainty!
The 22:00GMT opening gaps on the Yen Crosses in Sydney on this particular platform prove this point. EUR/JPY gaps open from 119.16 down to 116.12 and GBP/JPY clocks in at 150.55 down to 145.51.
Please click to enlarge the captures.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/pound-yen-gap1-300x210.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/files/2008/10/euro-yen-gap1-300x211.gif
(These gaps were beautifully filled with symmetrical fractals straight away…a little unusual, as Sunday gaps
have taken some time to fill in lately…)
If you are going to work with this type of price action, I would favor selling into strength through key retracements levels and horizontal, as well as vertical support and resistance areas. Use your Fibonacci tools, Elliott Wave analysis, and other cyclical tools.You may have to venture back a ways on the weekly and monthly charts here for solid support and resistance levels, but they do exist.
We will more than likely continue to see these gaps as long as this deep volatility continues.
Perhaps Monday may really be a new dynamic in the markets. Perhaps we will simply “freefall”, and finally clean ourselves out. We saw it in 1987 under similar circumstances. Or…perhaps not. I do not know. And I do not want to know. I simply wish to SEE…
This is perhaps, one of the most important “built-in Lessons” of all.
These markets will do what they are going to do…literally regardless of interventions of any sort. The last 15-20 trading days have certainly proven this point.
It is this exact notion that you should take with you into Trading. If the world powers-at-be, the Central Banks, the injection of trillions of dollar worldwide, and your dog magically opening the door by himself has not changed the situation…do you believe you can alter a particular Price aspect of your trades?
As I mentioned last week…..your job is to REACT to the current scenarios and market climates around you.
In many instances, we will hear of veteran professional traders on many levels simply staying out of the market. Their risk tolerance is not a question of conservation or aggression. Theirs is a profile of current market action not being applicable…period.
No matter how tempting the shiny fruit on the tree appears, their risk profile does not acknowledge it.
So check your own risk profile and see if the climate is comfortable for you.
Always remember…remaining flat with no trading activity is also a deeply viable option.
It is, perhaps, the most “logical and educated” position to take for yourself if you have any level of discomfort
« Newer posts
1st on Forexhttp://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/jerry-furst-author-photo2Medium.jpeg 1st on Forex: For Your Trading Success by Jerry Furst, Director at Investors Education Network
Posted on April 6, 2009 at 4:16 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Japan’s Complaint Shelved - UN Show Uselessness Again
Last week’s G20 cooperation fell apart at the United Nations on Sunday as not even a worthless declaration of outrage was made as North Korea brazenly gives the world the one finger salute - with their other finger on “the button”. When will real leadership emerge?
Overgrown Adolescents Playing With Weapons
Can we just put a “Dunce Cap” in these these guys and make them sit in the corner quietly in a comfortable room at Versailles - before we choke on the sand we have our heads buried in… Oh… maybe that’s not sand after all…
Currencies Unfazed to Financial or Military Warfare
Nothing much seems to jolt the market these days - I guess the difference between economic and military warfare is becoming marginalized as Trillions of fiat currency floods the earth - Where’s Noah?
Technical Analysis: Japanese Yen - Gives Ground
Interesting Chart Patterns At Support - Resistance
USD-YEN - Monthly Chart April 5, 2009
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/04/4-5-2009-usd-jpy-monthly-300x190.jpg
Triangle Pattern on MOnthly Chart Above Faces Decision Time as Price Approaches Strong Support - Resistance level of 102 - Meanwhile on the Tewo Hour Chart …
USD-YEN - Two Hour ChartApril 5, 2009 23:00
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/04/4-5-2009-usd-jpy-2-hour-inv-hs-300x189.jpg
Inverse Head and Shoulder Faces Monthly Resistance at the 102.00 Level
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Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: currencies, dollar, FX, G20, Head and Shoulder Pattern., missile, North Korea, trading, triangle pattern, Yen
G20 Success – Gold Fails - Pound the Euro
Posted on April 3, 2009 at 6:23 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Obama Re Affirms US Leadership The world can breathe a sigh of relief as it appears as if some sanity has prevailed and presented itself in the form of the G20 Communiqué.
Read All About The New World Order - As it is forming at the Official G20 Website http://www.g20.org/pub_communiques.aspx
Financial Markets Rejoice The equity markets soared as it learned of the success of the London Summit and Barack Obama gave a hopeful press conference that showed his leadership and “Toast Master” skills.
Central Banks Selling GoldDisclosure that the World Bank - IMF and the Central Banks have been granted authority to sell Gold - this will allow the Central Banks to raise capital as they print more cash….and….. Artificially hold down the price of Gold by selling the reserves.
Another Week - Another Trillion - or Three!
The G20 Leaders pledged 1 Trillion Dollars to help developing countries and to support the IMF and…Meanwhile Back in Washington - Obama Budget Passes $3 Trillion Dollar Budget
FASB - Mark to Market passed but discussion is that this accounting rule change may prevent the PPIP program announced last week from getting off the ground. But that’s another story….
Meanwhile - Back at the Currency Charts
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/04/4-3-2009-eur-gbp-4-hour-head-shoulder-300x189.jpg
Euro - Sterling 4 Hour Chart is setting up nice with a Head and Shoulder Pattern and …
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/04/4-3-2009-eur-gbp-30-min-trend-channel-300x189.jpg
The 30 Minute Chart is sporting a nice down trend channel.
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: euro, FX, G20, gold, Head and Shoulder Pattern., IMF, new world order, Pound, trading, World Bank
UN Presi-dented – GM to G20 – The Week Ahead?
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 5:55 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Obama Administration Takes Reins of US Infrastructure
Housing - Insurance - Banking - Automotive Industries all fall under Washington’s control. With eyes on the health care system - education - transportation - and…Don’t Fart - That could be considered as a carbon emission!
Who wants to be a CEO?
By now most readers have heard that the Obama administration has “ousted” the CEO of General Motors - once the largest and most admired car manufacturer in the world.
G20 Expectations - Set at What Level?
The world has been waiting for what some have coined “April Financial Fools Day” as the International Community will either band together - or split apart.
Protectionism - Protecting Who?
An interesting group of self interests and differing agendas seem to be emerging … As for demonstrations - they are planned throughout London - but who is doing the planning - anywhere?
Sell The Dollar - Buy The ????- Book
Peter Schiff, author of “Crash Proof” and “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets”gave a lecture this past weekend in Boca Raton at Florida Atlantic University. His predictions of the current crisis have given him quite a following.During the Q and A session I asked Mr. Schiff what his prediction of what would be the outcome of the G20 meeting. His response was a short and sweet -” It will be a photo op”- to which I asked a follow up question as to what will be the reaction of people who understand the implications - ” he said ” they will sell the dollar”- So then what will people buy….. the Q and A shifted to the subject of Gold.
The Week Ahead - Consolidated Economic Calendar
Under “normal” conditions this would be a news worthy week with NFP - unemployment data taking up the weeks speculation - but we all know the numbers will be bad - and the markets have shrugged off bad data lately.
Check out the “1st on Forex” Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events for the “Week Ahead”on the www.ienweb.com site.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/03/2009march30-usd-jpy-inv-head-shoulder-300x197.jpg
USD-JPY 4 Hour Chart - Inverse Head and Shoulder Setting Up?
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: "April Financial Fools Day", currency, dollar, Forex, FX, G20, GM, gold, Obama, Peter Schiff, trading, Yen
Tags: AIG, budget, currency, currency wars, dollar, education, euro, federal reserve, FOMC, Forex, G20, G7, G8, quantitative easing, trading, webinarsLet The Currency Wars Begin! - FT March 13, 2009
Posted on March 15, 2009 at 6:00 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst2 Comments »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”Investors Education Network.com Swiss Secrecy Laws Soon to be Swiss Cheese?
The Financial Times has been putting the Currencies on the front page as of the last few days with focus on the Swiss Franc being devalued by the Swiss National Bank.Peter Garnham at the FT quoted Chris Turner at ING as saying, “Let the currency wars begin.”
More Interventions on the Way?
With the G20 now bubbling up to a quick boil - we better hope that these G’s get it right. It seems that common sense is everywhere but where it is needed most when it comes to stimulus and waking up and/or firing the regulators.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/03/usd-chf-60-min-flag-pattern-intervention-3-15-2009-300x190.jpg
USD-CHF 1 Hour Chart - Raising the White Flag
But will the Intervention Hold?
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/03/usd-chf-daily-intervention-3-15-2009-300x191.jpg
USD-CHF - Daily Chart - It’s Just Another Retracement
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Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: Chart Pattern, currency, flag pattern, Forex, G20, intervention, trading
The Week Ahead - Charts Setting Up
Posted on March 9, 2009 at 5:43 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”Investors Education Network.comCharts Setting Up on Short Term
USD-JPY 30 Minute Chart - 1:20am EST
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/03/2009-march-9-inv-head-shoulders-300x189.jpg
Inverse Head and Shoulder Setting Up
USD-CAD - 30 Min Chart 1:28 am EST
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/03/2009-march-9-usd-cad-triangle-300x188.jpg
Triangle Pattern Setting Up
US is Light on Scheduled News This Week
Monday: No Major NewsTuesday: Wholesale TradeWednesday: Treasury BudgetThursday: Jobless Claims and Retail SalesFriday: Trade and Import-Export PricesSummarized Economic Calendar and Weekly Webinar
Get my filtered and concise list of selected scheduled news events I am following and register for The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
The Best Show on Earth – G20 and the Gang – “Priceless”
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 5:09 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings by Jerry Furst3 Comments »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”
at Investors Education Network.com
Mid Week Review
As we await Interest Rates from the ECB and the UK.
The fools on the hill continue to entertain us with their multi-trillion dollar show…
The Cast of Characters:
The President, The Fed Chairman, the Treasury Secretary, the Prime Minister of the UK, and Jimmy Rodgers!
So far this week has shown…
An amazing Soap opera of intrigue as the President of the United States suggested that it might be a good time to start buying into the stock market for “the long term”.
Tuesday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke took the hot seat for Senate testimony and amongst some of the things he said was….
“There was Failure of oversight….”
Looming Commercial Real Estate Crisis
AIG’s Financial Product Division was separate from their New York State Insurance company…. (However they both seem to be on the same ship….)
Rewarding the Three major credit agencies, despite their lack of any credible ratings - seemed to be ok with the Fed chairman
Bernanke Dodged the question
When asked, “Should banks, using taxpayer money to bail them out, charge those same taxpayers in excess of 20% interest on credit cards?” He bailed out of an answer…
When the question of Nationalization came up - his answer was that he did not think it would be necessary - but was prepared…(that means to me- it will and basically has already happened)
A pointed question of “Do you think there are any “outer limits” as to how much money you are prepared and able to provide to bail out banks - received a vague ” there is a limit…(just how many trillion$ is still To Be Determined)
Meanwhile - over at the White House….
UK Prime Minster Brown was not treated to formal flags and podiums… but a strange oval office press conference was had…
Key points :
The G20 meeting next month in London “must clean up the banking system” and the Prim Minister mentioned that the possibility of a “Global New Deal” is quite possible in the next few months….
Does that imply that all citizens of the earth will become equally miserable?
“The Challenges are Global”
“We need a Green Recovery”
“Regulatory System Needs Global Reform”
US Treasury Secretary Timmy Gee…
Was being lobbed soft balls in his testimony -the most important thing I heard was that the Senate leader notified the panel that the Treasury Secretary was prepared to go behind closed doors and answer questions (away from the television cameras)Thanks for your public service guys…
Meanwhile - Commodity Jimmy Rodgers Over in Singapore…
Interviewed live on MSNBC Wednesday Evening by Larry Kudlow
He said he was “Mind Boggled” at how the US government is imploding and being run by…. well let’s just say he did not have nice things to say about the Treasury Secretary or Fed Chairman….
Highlights and Quotes by the ex-patriot….
[*]- Mainly watching the markets….[*]- Supply of Commodities is declining[*]- Fundamentals for Commodities “Getting Better”[*]- He will be exiting the US Dollar sometime in 2009 or 2010[*]- In the last 2 months “the only market I’ve bought has been China”
So there you have a mid week run down - as the world awaits the Bank of England and the ECB to lower rates on Thursday - the limplications may not have any effect as we get closer to the April Fools gathering of the G20.
But you must admit - living in this time- let alone trading through this time is as Visa would say… “priceless”…..
Stay Tuned… It just might get more interesting as the Governments are coming to the rescue of us all!Makes me feel quite comfortable…
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: AIG, Bernanke, BOE, Brown, currencies, ECB, Forex, G20, Geithner, Interest Rates, Jimm Rodgers, news, trading
This Week: EU? Interest Rates - Unemployment Data
Posted on March 2, 2009 at 6:19 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” Investors Education Network.comLots of Scheduled News on the Calendar
Interest Rates Around the Globe Expected To Drop
Australia, Canada, The UK, and the Euro Zone are scheduled and expected to lower interest rates this week. The question is, are the moves already baked into the charts?
Non-Farm Payroll - Unemployment Data Due Friday
Employment data may come in at historically horrendous levels. Wednesday data from ADP and Challenger, and Thursday from Monster.com will lead up to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Wrapping up the week is the US consumer credit report at 15:00 Friday.
European Union? No Help for Eastern Europe. The Euro continues to slide against the US Dollar as witnessed by the chart below. Note the post from Febrauary 27th.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/03/eur-triangle-3-2-2009-1-01-08-am-300x196.jpg
EUR-USD - 60 Min chart - Beautiful Triangle Pattern continues to play out.
Summarized Economic Calendar and Weekly Webinar
To see my filtered and concise list of selected scheduled news events I am following and to register for The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: charting, currencies, dollar, economic calendar, euro, Forex, NFP, non farm payroll, Technical Analysis, trading, trangle pattern
Beautiful Charts, Ugly Economic Data - News
Posted on February 27, 2009 at 6:42 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Another Week - Another Batch of Bad News
[*] Weekly Jobless Claims - Worse Ever![*] Bank of Amerika Chief - Subpoenaed Over Pay Bonuses[*] AIG Needs Billion$ More[*] General Motors Heading for Bankruptcy[*] Iran ready to make some Nukes[*] North Korea Ready to Launch Them[*] That’s just Thursday’s short list from the US[*] Europe and Asia’s Data is Debatably Worse![*] But Wait…. There’s More… to come!
US GDP Expected to Come Out at -5.4 %
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Chart Patterns Setting Up
EUR-USD1 Hour Chart - Shows Triangle Pattern
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/02/2009-feb-27-eur-usd-triangle-pattern-300x189.jpg
USD-CAD - Daily Triangle Pattern - Consolidation Coming to the Breaking Pointhttp://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/02/2-27-2009-1-28-01-am-usd-cad-daily-triangle-300x191.jpg?
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Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients
Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: AIG, GDP, jobless claims, North Korea
No More Secret Swiss Bank Accounts - Who is Really on the UBS List?
Posted on February 19, 2009 at 7:58 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
By Jerry Furst- Sr. Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com
The Bizarre Gets More Momentum
- Are you no longer impressed with Jaw Dropping Jobless Claims?
- Tired of Hearing about Housing and Mortgage Issues?
-Not Interested in Nationalization of Banks Around the Globe?
-Do you find Zero Percent Interest Rates - UN Interesting?
-When 1,000 pages of legislation with Trillions of Dollars for ”Couch Warming”….. I mean “Stimulus Initiatives” becomes so boring that the largest spending bill in the history of mankind gets passed without even being read and “Cram Down” becomes part of everyday business jargon….Well Inquiring minds might like to know who’s been cheating on their taxes in Swiss Bank Accounts…
The New Transparency - Hiding of Assets Overseas Comes to and End?
As the Global Financial Markets Continue with the Negative Feedback Loop. - We needed more signs that things are changing - Now the Rich and Famous may be getting nervous as Swiss Bank Giant UBS has come to an agreement to disclose clients in the United States that opened bogus business entities to avoid paying US Taxes.
Slap on the Wrist for UBS ?
Word of an agreement between UBS and the IRS came quickly Wednesday, with a mere $780 million dollar fine. Come on guys, not even a couple of Billion? These days a few hundred million is government chump change.
Just an Honest Mistake? - Who’s Really on the UBS List?
According to the Associated Press, Devlin Barrett’s article goes on to state that the IRS is calling on tax cheats to turn themselves in. My question is will they make the entire list public, and what about all the other tax cheats, like the Treasury Secretary - Perhaps Tim has an account over there?I guess all they will need to do is say they made and honest mistake.
Euro Head and Shoulder - Trend Line Break In Play
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/02/2-19-2009-eur-usd-daily-head-shoulder-300x189.jpg
EUR-USD Daily Chart- (Click Chart to Enlarge)
Last Week I pointed out this Head and Shoulder pattern on the Euro that was poised to break the neckline. I received comments that his was not a Head and Shoulders, to which I reply - It’s a strong Support Line no matter what you say… And it is now broken. Where it goes from here, Who knows - the fundamentalists will point the blame on Eastern European Banks, or some other scapegoat if it continues down… If the Euro strengthens, It won’t be because of Trichet.
Pound Sterling Consolidating against the Dollar
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/02/2-19-2009-gbp-usd-4-hour-chart-300x189.jpg
GBP-USD4 Hour Chart- (Click Chart to Enlarge)
The Pound is Poised for something as this chart shows it has gone sideways
long enough.
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Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients
Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: currencies, dollar, euro, Forex, FX, head shoulder pattern, Pound, Sterling, stimulus program, Swiss Bank Accounts, Tax Cheats, Technical Analysis, trading, UBS
Older posts »
Posted on February 13, 2009 at 5:53 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst4 Comments »
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com
Dr Evil from Austin Powers only asked for a few hundred millionThe good news may be that with this much desperation, perhaps we are closing in on the bottom. A test and bounce off of the November lows for the S&P would be nice… Let’s face it Two Trillion Dollars can go a long way – at least it used to… You just think that they would know what they are going to do with it!
On Tuesday Barack Obama fielded questions at a Town Hall meeting in Fort Meyers Florida – by a homeless woman looking for her own bathroom, an unemployed man who was looking for his full paycheck to be provided by unemployment insurance, and a part time McDonalds employee looking to get a “real job” as a broadcasting disk jockey…
US Treasury to “Stress Test” BanksWhat does that really mean? The US Treasury Secretary stated it was to be interpreted as a medical term. Does this imply that the smaller regional banks – (the ones that do not have Government medical insurance – the ones small enough to fail) will be subject to the stress and strains of the market – and allowed to hit the floor?
Pass the Preparation “H” PleaseTim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, The heads of the US Banking System, The US Congress, the New President Barack Obama, The Media, The late night pundits, the bloggers, and the general public - We All have been sitting in the “Hot Seat”
Don’t Smirk Europe – The G7 Meets this week – We will pass you the tube!Accusations of Nationalism and Protectionism is flying across Europe. Puttingthe Euro and the European Union on a stress test of it’s own… can this 10 year old, un-ratified union stand the strain?
My friends… as Jon Stewart on the Daily Show Stated…. “We are ———-“!
In the Mean Time…. Gold and the DollarThe US Dollar is still a place of safe harbor – for now – But Gold is Inching upwards towards $1,000.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/02/2009-feb-12-gld-daily-breaking-trend-300x186.jpg
Gold ETF - GLD Daily Chart - (Click to Enlarge) Pushing Through Resistance with a nice upward trend channel.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/02/2009-jan-12-eur-daily-hs-300x184.jpg
EUR-USD Daily Chart (Click to Enlage) Head and Shoulder Pattern - maybe - maybe not - but theer’s a nice supporting trend line.
Tune in to Monday’s Free Webinar - Click Here to Register
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients
Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: charts, dollar, Dr Evil, euro, Forex, FX, G7, gold, Jon Stewart, Technical Analysis, Tim Geithner, trading
Patterns Holding Ahead of Non Farm Payroll?
Posted on February 6, 2009 at 6:01 in Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”
www.Investors-Education-Network.com
Charts are showing some nice trends and patterns but seem to be stalled since the afternoon of the New York session.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/02/2-6-2009-12-13-09-am-eur-gbp-head-shoulders-300x189.png
EUR-GBP 4 Hour Chart (click to enlarge)
The Euro-Pound is showing a nice Head and Shoulder pattern with a strong supporting trend-neck line. The Neckline was broken early in Thursday’s New York session but then paused.
Dual Head and Shoulder Pattern on Eurohttp://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/02/2-6-2009-12-46-07-am-eur-usd-dual-head-shoulder-patterns-300x188.png
EUR-USD 2 Hour Chart - (click to enlarge)
Shows a great example of a fractal pattern with two Head and Shoulder Patterns. Notice some of the
identical features - despite the different size of the patterns.
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Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients
Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: Forex, fractal patterns, FX, head shoulders, NFP, non farm payroll, Technical Analysis, trading
The Week Ahead: Employment Data & Interest Rates
Posted on February 1, 2009 at 19:30 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.comEconomic Calendar Full of Data and NewsThis week has lots of potential for momentum trading as Interest Rates for the UK, Euro Zone, and Australia will be watched closely.
The employment situation will be highlighted with ADPand other reporting agencies leading up to Friday’s Non Farm Payroll.
Lot’s of other data coming out as well - so don’t get caught by surprise - mark your calendar and trade accordingly!
The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click HereJerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: economic calendar, Forex, FX, NFP, non farm payroll, trading
Light News Ahead of FOMC - Charts Not Impressive
Posted on January 28, 2009 at 5:06 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com
No Surprise Expected - “Jawboning” AheadWith rates effectively at 0-0.25% Bernanke and the Fed can really only “Jawbone” at this time. Rumors and fears of Quantitative easing seem to be the “built-in” expectations.
Charts Not Showing thier HandA scan of the charts shows nothing “exciting” as price is likely settling in for the FOMC announcement at 2:15 EST.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-27-2009-11-42-02-pm-gbp-4hour-300x189.jpg
GBP-USD 4 Hour chart(click to enlarge)
The Pound-Dollar had been sporting a Head and Shoulder pattern in progress, however, the chart above shows price coming back up to resistance at the neckline.
Tags: Bernanke, charting, FOMC, Forex, FX, head and shoulder, Technical Analysis, trading, webinar
Tags: Bernanke, charting, FOMC, Forex, FX, head and shoulder, Technical Analysis, trading, webinarReality on the Brink - A Matter of Perspective
Posted on January 24, 2009 at 5:54 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com
Reality on the Brink!
The global financial markets seem to be drifting in and out of a surreal stream of headlines underlined by facts that boggle any rational mind that attempts to seriously grapple with the facts of what is happenning.
It’s All a Matter of Perpsective
To illustrate where we are today in comparison to 1995 - It is almost exactly 14 years since the notorious “Rogue Trader”- Nick Leeson sank Baring’s - the Queen’s Bank, with an untimely short straddle.A pillar of the British Empire’s financial system for over 200 years crumbled under the “stupendous” loss of: $1.4 Billion USD (827 Million -GBP)Staggering numbers 1,400,000,000.
Today we talk about Hundreds of Billions…. and we don’t even know where the money is going! Except maybe for some Roman shades and Victorian furniture in John Thain’s office. I just don’t get it.
Pound Gets No Reprise
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-23-2009-11-40-10-pmgbp-4-hour-300x196.jpg
GBP-USD 4 Hour Chart (click to enlarge) shows Head and shoulder pattern paused with a downward trend channel intact.
Euro Continues Slide vs Dollar
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-23-2009-11-44-39-pm-eur-4-hour-300x194.jpg
EUR-USD 4 Hour chart (click to enlarge) shows Trend Channel intact since December 2008. The Financial Times reports bank deposits at the ECB were 72.7bn Euros lower at 111.4bn
Tune in to Monday’s Free Webinar and Live Coverage of the US GDP report and FOMC Announcement - Click Here to Register
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: Barings Bank, dollar, ECB, euro, Forex, FX, John Thain, Nick Leeson, Pound, Rogue Trader, trading
Obama Takes Office as Banking Crisis Looms Large
Posted on January 21, 2009 at 5:43 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com
Meanwhile - Back at the Banks
US financial stocks opened lower souring inauguration elation on the financial networks. This after the UK signaled it was considering taking the drastic act of nationalising banks and quantatitative easing. Speculation that the UK might lose it’s AAA rating come after Spain sufferred just such a downgrade.
Jim Rodgers – Doesn’t Want To Be Your Neighbor in the UK
The Commodities trader and former trading partner of George Soros - Jim Rodgers kicked the Pound from the curb into the sewer by stating, ” I would urge you to sell any Sterling you might have.”
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-21-2009-12-30-12-am-gbp-4-hour-head-shoulder-300x189.png
GBP-USD 4 Hour Chart (click to Enlarge)
Ouch…. Come on Jim - have some sympathy… It was not that long ago that the Pound was trading at 2.0 to the US Dollar - My how things can change… The above chart shows a nice Head and Shoulder pattern that has been forming over the past week - now breaking the neckline.
Dollar - Still Safe Haven?
In the current enviornment - the US Dollar is still viewed as a “Safe Haven”, except for the Yen which continues to strengthen as some people speculate that Asia may not suffer as much as the Western world - time will tell….
The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinars - Click Here
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: Forex, FX, George Soros, Jim Rodgers, trading
The Week and New President - Ahead
Posted on January 18, 2009 at 23:38 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” at Investors Education Network.com
Light Scheduled Economic News
Scheduled economic data is light for the US this week as Monday is Martin Luther King Day followed by the historic and long awaited inauguration of Barack Obama. Weekly Jobless Claims, Store Sales, and Housing data will likely be eclipsed as the world waits on the smooth transition of power from Bush to Obama – and signs of what the new commander in chief will say and do.
Media Hails to the New Chief
The media has put a significant percentage of the US population literally in a state of mass psychosis (Obama Mania). This places the new President on an extremely high pedestal. I personally have warmed to Barack - a smart, charismatic speaker, and hope he succeeds in pulling the US and the world back to “normal” - but the harsh realities of the world will take 2009s challenges deep into 2010. Obama has his hands full - and possibly tied.
Euro - USD 60 Min Chart Sunday Jan 19, 2009 http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-18-2009-5-55-18-pm-euro-60-min-trending-300x189.jpg
The Euro Breaking Resistance (click to Enlarge)
USD-CAD 2 Hour Chart Sunday Jan 19, 2009
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-18-2009-6-16-10-pm-usd-cad-2-hour-testing-support-300x188.jpg
Upward Trend Channel - Breaking Support (click to Enlarge)
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Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: Barack Obama, Forex, FX, inauguration, mass psychosis, trading
Currency Correlations - Out Of Order !
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 3:06 in Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst at Investors Education Network.com
Currencies are Breaking Out
As 2009 officially gets underway with the 1st full week of trading - the currencies are displaying “unusual” correlations - or the lack there of. For example:
UK Pound Rallies vs The Dollar
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-5-2009-9-17-26-pm-gbp-30-min-trend-channel-break-out-300x188.jpg
While the Euro Breaks Down Against the US Dollar
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-5-2009-9-06-30-pm-eur-30-min-consolidation-300x189.jpg
While the US Dollar Appreciated against the Swiss
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-5-2009-9-17-26-pm-chf-30-min-trend-channel-break-out-300x187.jpg
The USD-CAD Dropped to a new Support Level
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/files/2009/01/1-5-2009-9-17-26-pm-cad-30-min-consolidation-break-out-300x188.jpg
So the above shows that the US Dollar isby no means moving in the same direction. The current variations of correlations are not acting in traditional ways - this suggests to me that more volatility is likely on the way.
The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: Canadian, Currency correlations, dollar, euro, Forex, Pound, Technical Analysis, trading
Holiday Season - A Good Time To Prepare for 2009
Posted on December 23, 2008 at 5:04 in Because You Asked, Fundamental Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Good Time ToWork On Your Trading and Business Plan
This market - and season is quite unique. During my webinar today I suggested that traders consider taking the Holiday Season off - away from trading - and concentrate on reflecting on this past years trading and amazing market dynamics. It is also a great time to work on a true business and trading plan for next year.
Survey Yourself
A good way to start is with the free survey - go to the link: http://tinyurl.com/a56tex
Q: RE: Volatility During Holiday Season
A question-comment to previous blog post yesterday asks if the holiday season can result in a thin market and cause a range bound market regardless of fundamental news events. My Reply:
Currency Markets Know No Holidays! One of my favorite sayings is that the Currency Markets Know No Holidays! Being a global market, some cultures do not celebrate others - and as long as a bank is open somewhere currencies can trade - it all boils down to access through your broker.
“It’s Different This Time”
Having said that - another point you raise is that my past experience of holiday seasons gives me a level of expectation - but this market and holiday season is not the same as last year, and next year will be different still.You need to always evaluate each season and circumstance individually. It’s the one time that “It’s Different This Time” is really true!
Regarding the implications of news releases and volatility during the holiday season, although it is anticipated that there will be thin volume - there is actually a potential for wider swings - especially if there is surprising news “scheduled or non-scheduled” it will most likely affect the markets with more of a wild swing. - bringing me to my initial point - Enjoy the Holiday Season and reflect on what you learned in 2008 and what you will plan to do in 2009.
Cheers - and Happy Holidays!
The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: business plan, currencies, FX, trading, trading plan
The Week Ahead - Holiday Time?
Posted on December 22, 2008 at 3:48 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry Furst2 Comments »
Festival of Lights - Happy Happy - Joy JoyHoliday Greetings to All - The Calendar is light this week - as it should be - and to give the volatile markets a much needed rest and break - but will the volatility calm down as the banks and corporations around the world turn off the office lights? A Happy Hanukkah to all celebrating the festival of lights.
Light News CalendarThere are several GDP Reports scheduled to be released for the US, UK, Canada, and New Zealand. Will the numbers really be a surprise to anyone if they come out a bit worse than expected?
Tuesday will have the UK GDP released at 4:30 EST and can serve as a heads up as to the volatility for the US GDP at 8:30 EST.Other news on Tuesday for the US include Consumer Sentiment, New and Existing Home Sales Data, and Investor Confidence all coming out at 10 EST.
Wednesday has Jobless claims- Durable Goods - and Personal Income and Spending Data also clustered at 8:30 EST. The EIA will release both Petroleum and Natural Gas data on Wednesday to accommodate the Christmas Holiday on Thursday.Canada releases GDP data at 8:30 on Wednesday.
For more scheduled news events … Check out my consolidated event calendar and
You are invited to attend my weekly webinar “The Week Ahead” to register click the link below.
The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select ClientsClick Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: currency trading, economic calendar, Forex, FX, GDP
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