October 13th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Corrections.in: General, Trades
Opening on Sunday was a as volatility as last week, but later on things quieted down a little bit. Not all crosses, but some did. Still, JPY pairs had some day and the “commodity currencies” regained some ground. So did the Pound. First things first. I started the day with long EUR-JPY.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-jpy-10-13.jpg
Things were a little tricky. On this platform price opened above 136.50, my intended entry. Thankfully. almost immediately price retraced and I was in. Got out at 137.15, for 65 pips gain. As I noted in previous post, a switch was made to GBP-JPY once it became apparent that GBP is stronger than Euro. Yen showed some teeth and made another run, after which my trade happened.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-jpy-10-13.jpg
This trade netted hundred pips. I’m a little disssapointed with myself, I should have made one more trade later on. There is nothing to complain about, however. I also initiated a longer term trade in GBP-USD.
Tomorrow I will cover EUR-AUD, where I’m looking for downside moves, as well as more GBP-JPY where, once again, I’ll be seeking short term charts based upside moves. As I’m writing this, more information is being released on the government bailout plan, so expect a lot of “expert” commentary
October 12th, 2008 at 8:50 am
G-7 meeting.in: General, Trades
Financial ministers from the so called G-7 countries are meeting in Washington to discuss ways of solving current crisis. Calling it G-7 is a little misleading, because there are representatives from scores of other countries present. It is very unclear if a viable solution emerges. At the same time EU is having concurrent assembly of member’s heads of states, with the same agenda. So the trading week will start with a lot of bombastic headlines, a lot of which will be very confusing. I expect volatility to remain high, but smaller than over last few days.
My own trading will likely stay active. For now I still focus on EUR-JPY short term upside breakouts.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-jpy-10-12.jpg
This 15M chart suggests entry at 136.50. Depending on how things open I might zoom in to 5M charts and try to get in earlier. This worked good for me last week. By the time Europe opens, though, I might substitute it with GBP-JPY. Why? My opinion is that GBP sell off was overdone and it will likely become stronger than Euro. But I need some evidence of that first. In the meantime I plan to go long GBP-USD at the open.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-usd-10-12.jpg
Target here is 1.7750. Position size is going to be smaller, because of increased risk. This is a daily chart, so more room must be given for fluctuation. At the same time I’m keeping a close eye on Australian Dollar pairs, especially EUR-AUD. Euro suffered the smallest losses of of the major currencies so it is possible it will be “catching up”. At the same time AUD suffered disproportionate losses and I don’t think it will be the weakest link again. This is a line of thinking for the week ahead and not necessarily first few hours after the open. It should be a busy week.
October 11th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Charts of Krona.in: Articles, General
Here are a couple of charts of the Icelandic Krona against Euro and Swiss Franc to go with the article. These are weekly charts, see how large the moves were last week.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-isk-10-11.jpg
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/chf-isk-10-11.jpg
The last quotes were even higher, much higher, at over 300 for EUR-ISK. As far as I can tell, trading in ISK has stopped. Who knows when and if it resumes.
Mike K.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Pounding of the Pound.in: General, Trades
Another day of crazy moves. Yesterday afternoon my time (west coast), another large sell off for Pound. It dropped to 1.6800 against the dollar and 100o pips against JPY. I’m usually asleep at that time, so I didn’t do anything. It continued through Asian opening. For the rest of the day most currencies jumped around like yo-yo in hands of drunk sailor.
I was busy. Once again going long EUR-JPY off 5M charts. Unfortunately, since Yen was still on a roll, price moved mostly lower, but I managed two trades.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-jpy-10-10.jpg
First trade lost 50 pips, second made 100 pips. I had more trades but since they were not mentioned here before, I’m not going to bring them up. Turned out I was very lucky with my EUR-AUD trade yesterday. Since I took profit there it has been moving away and made it all the way up 2.1000. There are
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October 9th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Prices pull back (some of them).in: General, Trades
Another fast day. Many good moves, although some of them are very non directional, most of JPY crosses, for example, which seem to be building very wide sideways ranges. Those ranges are so wise, under normal conditions it would take a week to see this magnitude of swings. But there were some directional moves. For one, seems like judgment day for Canadian Dollar, which really got hammered. My attention was on Australian Dollar, which, indeed recovered some losses as anticipated. My order to sell was triggered.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-aud-10-09.jpg
I rode it form 1.9960 until it looked that the move was done for now. Exit was at 1.9320, only about 130 pips from the bottom. Very good trade for 640 pips. I think there is more downside potential and it is very likely that this could go as low as 1.8000. Timing is more tricky, probably not tomorrow, but perhaps over a week’s time. With markets as crazy as we’ve seen lately, who knows? In case move down starts soon, I left a sell order at 1.9180.
Once again I was also busy trading EUR-JPY to the upside. Simple breakouts using 5M charts.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-jpy-10-09-1.jpg
Two good trades earlier in my day produced 95 pips and 50 pips respectively. That was out of about 400 pips upswing. This was followed by one more trade, but I got too greedy, blew it and settled for 20 pips loss.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-jpy-10-09-2.jpg
Still a lot of news coming out, three more central financial authorities cut rates- Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea. Maybe the strangest development of this whole mess comes from UK, where government threatened a legal action against Iceland over the defunct Icelandic banks. All 3 of that country’s banks failed, which led to about 200,000 Brits loosing money they had on deposit in British branches of those banks. Situation in Iceland is bizarre even by standards of current events. In fact, I’ll put some info together over the weekend and post it here.
With one day l
October 8th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Forex madness.in: General
The madness continues. Swings by hundreds of pips, even thousands. Yes, thousands. One of those was EUR-AUD which moved over 2000 pips today. Wow! I was watching it unfold, there were jumps of 40-50 on a tick! But so was the spread with my broker. Rough trading. Australian dollar is the new whipping boy. What a fall from glory of just couple of months ago. Hourly chart shows fluctuations that normally happen on monthly charts. It’s absurd. These type of moves generally indicate a blow out top. That is why I’m going to try a short trade here.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-aud-10-08.jpg
I have an order to sell at 1.9960 looking for at least 500 pips, maybe even 1000. Risks are big but so is the target. Since I’m looking for such a large objective, position size is smaller.
Big time news just keep coming out. Central banks around the globe cut interest rates in coordinated move, European countries are doing their own “bailout” of failing banks, so is Russia, Fed made a guarantee for short term corporate debt, on and on it goes. Next to impossible to digest it all. That’s why I’m sticking to short time frames, especially since the moves are so outrageous. Just like I said yesterday, I’ve been buying EUR-JPY on 5M charts.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-jpy-10-08-1.jpg
Early on I made 55 pips, shortly after that I took second trade and was stopped out for a 50 pips loss. Market promptly fell 400 pips like nothing. I started to look for next trade.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-jpy-10-08-2.jpg
That was my money trade, 96 pips gain. Market fell again 300 pips. I was done for the day.
I’d like say that swings become smaller and more manageable from now, but markets are SO event driven, and there are so many announcements coming out all the time
October 7th, 2008 at 10:18 am
The day after.in: General, Trades
Things are still very uncertain and direction is hard to find. Some could say markets are taking a breather, a normal correction after such decisive mood, others, that they are turning around. Personally I don’t know, but the previous move was so exaggerated, that this pull back was very expected. Comparing to yesterday, the swings are small but still into 100’s of pips. Like I mentioned yesterday, I don’t want to commit to anything outside of day trading, and the smaller time frame the better. So I was nipping at EUR-JPY to the upside, just like stated in my last post.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/eur-jpy-10-071.jpg
In actuality I was using 5M charts, but I compressed it to 15M for a better picture here. I took 2 trades, one netted 55 pips and after which I got more ambitious and the second trade produced 115 pips. This were simple upside breakouts, nothing fancy. Later in a day, night my time, there was one more great up move, but frankly I was so tired that I went to sleep and missed it.
For tomorrow, plan is to do more of the same- upside breakouts on small time frames of JPY crosses. If Pound seems stronger that Euro, I’ll use GBP-JPY, otherwise EUR-JPY is my vehicle of choice.
Reserve bank of Australia cut rates to 6%, one full percentage point, expectation was 0.5%. Since I was asked, I don’t really have an opinion about AUD. Why? At this point is way too event driven, but longer time frames point to farther deterioration. Now, as far as Yen goes, chances are we have seem
October 6th, 2008 at 10:40 am
All hell broke loose.in: General, Trades
That was some day. And it looks like it isn’t over yet. Right of the bat things started moving and then they just picked up speed. And my trade selection - all wrong. GBP-USD was bought at 1.7625, as planned. it was stopped out at 1.7550 for a loss of 75 pips. I reentered soon after at 1.7700, but within few hours I lost confidence and pulled a plug on it at 1.7743, for negative 27 pips. Proved to be not a moment too soon. Looks like I got off easy.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-usd-10-06.jpg
Trade I carried from before, GBP-CHF was cut short by me. After seeing what was happening in JPY crosses, there was a possibility that CHF might be next “flight to safety” currency. I exited my position at 2.0078, for a marginal loss of 12 pips. That’s break even for all practical purposes.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-chf-10-06.jpg
Story of the day must Japanese Yen. It really put on the show. Some of these moves were all out ridiculous. Let’s take AUD-JPY for example, the pair I was planning a long trade. It fell 1100 pips! I’ve been trading forex since 2002 and I NEVER saw this pair move this much in a day. Last year, during the summer sell off, or the “carry trade unwind”, it fell 800 pips, so today was much more. For me it was big difference- last year I made 500 pips on that day, today I barely avoided losses. My plan was to buy on the open IF there was not a big gap. There was one, about 100 pips, so I aborted the trade.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/aud-jpy-10-06.jpg
I placed a buy order above recent highs couple of times during the day, but this last move at about 10 EST knocked the wind out of me and sapped a will to trade. For next few hours, that is.
AUD and NZD got really hammered and I’m not even going to guess at this point what is next for these 2 currencies. I think right now it is dangerous to make strong commitment on either side of them. Frankly, that is the case all over the board. When in doubt- stay out.
Plan for tomorrow is to go to smaller time frames, 5M or even 1M if large moves continue and concentrate on EUR-JPY with a bias to the upside looking for 30-50 pips. After today, next few days may be very anticlimactic-it is unlikely this magnitude of moves continues even though the ranges will still
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October 5th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Time to get busy.in: General, Trades
It is going to be interesting to see how markets behave after a couple of days of a cool down period, since the bailout was passed. The mechanics of the process are still vague, and nothing really is going to happen for some time. We know it will not be implemented overnight but rather some kind of procedure will be establish to start taking over “toxic loan portfolios”.Availability of funds for this operation is also murky at the moment. Will there will be an increased number of treasury auctions, or will they be dipping into social security funds or what? Expect significant market jitters every few days as these details are revealed. People will be changing, adjusting their opinions and trading as this unfolds. However, the one big news, the bailout itself, is out of the way, so let’s get busy.
I maintain position in GBP-CHF but I’m also taking a stab at GBP-USD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-usd-10-05.jpg
If the price goes down, I want to buy it at 1.7625. This entry would have very attractive stop loss , just under most recent lows. Even than, however, I’ll be looking for possible reentry in that area, if a reversal pattern forms on 30m-1h charts. Should the price move up after open, I have a buy order at 1.7880, looking for 1.8000-1.8050. Incidentally, Pound looks good in other crosses also. For example, EUR-GBP looks great to go short on daily charts, even though is a little over done on hourly. But I don’t see much point in getting in too many Pound pairs. Besides, I already have a trade in GBP-CHF.
I also want to get in AUD-JPY.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/aud-jpy-10-05.jpg
Unless there is a huge gap, I plan to simply buy it at the market, probably around 81.60, with target of 82.70 or so. Just like the previous trade, the risk here is small and, at this writing, immediate reentry, if stopped out, looks possible.
I expect busy
October 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 am
It is bailout after all.in: General, Trades
Seems that all ass kissing and hand twisting did pay off for some of our politicians. They managed to convince enough members of the congress to vote for this overstated financial “life ring”. In order to gather all the necessary votes, sponsors of the bill had to amend it by including some tax breaks and other ‘incentives”. Final version is probably so convoluted, it will take take weeks for a team of full time analysts to get to the bottom of it.
While I disagree with this “bailout”, I am relieved that it is over and we can get on with the business of trading. Markets hate waiting for important news. Now all the participants can start digesting the implications and trade according to their expectations. In other words- back to normal.
I closed all my positions before the news broke out, except for one, GBP-CHF, what I featured here yesterday.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-chf-10-03.jpg
My order was filled as set and for now I’m in. I will decide over the weekend weather to stay in it, depending on how markets close today and open on Sunday.
I have new data on what kind of returns professional money managers are getting trading forex. I will share it on these pages tomorrow or the day after. You may be surprised….
One more thing- remember this date, October 3rd 2008, because it is the day when free markets died. No, they were killed.
Have a great weekend!
Mike K.
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
Cancelled trades.in: General, Trades
Markets are still waiting for the vote of congress, although the dollar is getting stronger. And not very subtly, either. Same with Japanese Yen. One would less defined moves. There is an interesting possibility to this market action- maybe nothing will happen when the vote outcome finally is announced. You know, buy the rumor, sell the news axiom.
Back to my trades. Both orders in CAD-JPY and NZD-USD are no longer valid. Price moved against me, and did it in such a way, that there is no got point to adjust the trades to. For now, than, I’m cancelling these trades, although I should return to them. Next week, perhaps.
At this time GBP-CHF looks promising on the long side to me.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-chf-10-02.jpg
Plan is to get in at 2.0090, and a target of 2.0225. I don’t want to place too many trades, or orders, before the weekend and the news from congress. Markets
October 1st, 2008 at 10:39 am
All quiet.in: General, Trades
Quiet for me at least. No, that is not entirely correct- quiet in relation to the trades I post here. At this point there is one pending since yesterday, a buy order in CAD- JPY. I’m still waiting for an upside breakout.
In other news, if you didn’t here, senate leaders manage to weasel some other bailout proposal in order to help failing financial companies. Remember, house already rejected it once. Seems like we have some boneheads there who will not rest until they waste another big pile of money that is not theire. Mark my words, these stupid proposal will just keep coming until something or other passes. By then it will probably be a really half ass measure, that will not solve anything, but will add to confusion mightily.
Currencies markets don’t seem to able to find direction. It is possible some intermediate turning points are building, but nothing is conclusive just yet. While we wait for something to happen, I placed another order.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/nzd-usd-10-1.jpg
Order is to buy NZD-USD at 0.6815. My target is 0.6900.
Some reports indicated congress vote to come tonight, now I here it was postponed till later this week. No matter what the vote, there will be a reaction
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October 5th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Time to get busy.in: General, Trades
It is going to be interesting to see how markets behave after a couple of days of a cool down period, since the bailout was passed. The mechanics of the process are still vague, and nothing really is going to happen for some time. We know it will not be implemented overnight but rather some kind of procedure will be establish to start taking over “toxic loan portfolios”.Availability of funds for this operation is also murky at the moment. Will there will be an increased number of treasury auctions, or will they be dipping into social security funds or what? Expect significant market jitters every few days as these details are revealed. People will be changing, adjusting their opinions and trading as this unfolds. However, the one big news, the bailout itself, is out of the way, so let’s get busy.
I maintain position in GBP-CHF but I’m also taking a stab at GBP-USD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-usd-10-05.jpg
If the price goes down, I want to buy it at 1.7625. This entry would have very attractive stop loss , just under most recent lows. Even than, however, I’ll be looking for possible reentry in that area, if a reversal pattern forms on 30m-1h charts. Should the price move up after open, I have a buy order at 1.7880, looking for 1.8000-1.8050. Incidentally, Pound looks good in other crosses also. For example, EUR-GBP looks great to go short on daily charts, even though is a little over done on hourly. But I don’t see much point in getting in too many Pound pairs. Besides, I already have a trade in GBP-CHF.
I also want to get in AUD-JPY.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/aud-jpy-10-05.jpg
Unless there is a huge gap, I plan to simply buy it at the market, probably around 81.60, with target of 82.70 or so. Just like the previous trade, the risk here is small and, at this writing, immediate reentry, if stopped out, looks possible.
I expect busy week for me.
October 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 am
It is bailout after all.in: General, Trades
Seems that all ass kissing and hand twisting did pay off for some of our politicians. They managed to convince enough members of the congress to vote for this overstated financial “life ring”. In order to gather all the necessary votes, sponsors of the bill had to amend it by including some tax breaks and other ‘incentives”. Final version is probably so convoluted, it will take take weeks for a team of full time analysts to get to the bottom of it.
While I disagree with this “bailout”, I am relieved that it is over and we can get on with the business of trading. Markets hate waiting for important news. Now all the participants can start digesting the implications and trade according to their expectations. In other words- back to normal.
I closed all my positions before the news broke out, except for one, GBP-CHF, what I featured here yesterday.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-chf-10-03.jpg
My order was filled as set and for now I’m in. I will decide over the weekend weather to stay in it, depending on how markets close today and open on Sunday.
I have new data on what kind of returns professional money managers are getting trading forex. I will share it on these pages tomorrow or the day after. You may be
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
Cancelled trades.in: General, Trades
Markets are still waiting for the vote of congress, although the dollar is getting stronger. And not very subtly, either. Same with Japanese Yen. One would less defined moves. There is an interesting possibility to this market action- maybe nothing will happen when the vote outcome finally is announced. You know, buy the rumor, sell the news axiom.
Back to my trades. Both orders in CAD-JPY and NZD-USD are no longer valid. Price moved against me, and did it in such a way, that there is no got point to adjust the trades to. For now, than, I’m cancelling these trades, although I should return to them. Next week, perhaps.
At this time GBP-CHF looks promising on the long side to me.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/gbp-chf-10-02.jpg
Plan is to get in at 2.0090, and a target of 2.0225. I don’t want to place too many trades, or orders, before the weekend and the news from congress. Markets can
October 1st, 2008 at 10:39 am
All quiet.in: General, Trades
Quiet for me at least. No, that is not entirely correct- quiet in relation to the trades I post here. At this point there is one pending since yesterday, a buy order in CAD- JPY. I’m still waiting for an upside breakout.
In other news, if you didn’t here, senate leaders manage to weasel some other bailout proposal in order to help failing financial companies. Remember, house already rejected it once. Seems like we have some boneheads there who will not rest until they waste another big pile of money that is not theire. Mark my words, these stupid proposal will just keep coming until something or other passes. By then it will probably be a really half ass measure, that will not solve anything, but will add to confusion mightily.
Currencies markets don’t seem to able to find direction. It is possible some intermediate turning points are building, but nothing is conclusive just yet. While we wait for something to happen, I placed another order.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/nzd-usd-10-1.jpg
Order is to buy NZD-USD at 0.6815. My target is 0.6900.
Some reports indicated congress vote to come tonight, now I here it was postponed till later this week. No matter what the vote, there will be a reaction,
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September 30th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Bravo, congress.in: General, Trades
While I was writing the post yesterday, news hit the wire that congress rejected this bailout proposal. Actually, it happened just after I posted my comments and I didn’t have time to edit it. Unexpectedly, the house voted against proposed governments involvement in this mess. Considering, that the so called leaders had announced come compromised the day before, this was a shock. I was glad to see there were still some men and women of principle there, not afraid to vote for the right thing. By now everybody knows what happened to stock market, it fell some 777 points, so I’m not going to dwell on it. What was of interest to me, however, also responded sharply. Large moves in currencies, including EUR-AUD, where I had my long position.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-aud-9-30.jpg
While i was considering abandoning this trade and look for greener pastures, this sot up like a rocket and hit my rather ambitious target at 1.7925, for 230 pips. I must admit, it came as a surprise, but I gladly took it. After all, it turned out to be a very good trade.
Our leaders are again talking about some proposal to bail out failing institutions. What all this talk is going to do, is to create even more anxiety and uncertainty. Once again markets participants have to wait for details of new proposal, than vote, etc. We are back to square one, and nobody knows anything. Don’t be surprised if we hear about some joint intervention, including involvement of foreign central banks….
While we are waiting, I placed new order, a buy in CAD-JPY.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/cad-jpy-9-30.jpg
I plan to get in at 100.90, looking for 102. Japanese yen got extremely strong yesterday, for reasons mysterious to me…. That’s why I mainly just read charts. Now I’m looking for some weakness in JPY.
Thank
September 29th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Wimpy trades.in: General, Trades
It is my trades I’m talking about. That’s right, the trades I planned couple of days ago are turning out to be just minor moves. Of course that is comparison to everything else. Week has opened with a bang. Dollar roared to life after few days of indecision, and so did JPY. Massive moves in all crosses of these currencies. Seems like everything was moving hundreds of pips, except for the pairs I had vested interest in. Her is my trade in NZD-CHF.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/nzd-chf-b.jpg
Trade was entered as intended at 0.7495, with a target of 0.7555. Now, price didn’t get to my objective, but came so close to it, that I decided to close it during next price bar. I do that often. My exit turned out to be 0.7528 , for a gain 33 pips. And than the price collapsed. So, I guess this trade was not that bad after all. I managed a profit. That’s what counts.
The other one was EUR-AUD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-aud-b.jpg
Price took a wide swing down after the open, but eventually my order was filled at 1.7695. Than the price has stalled. I’m still in it, but I don’t plan to stay in it for long. I lost confidence and I will get out later on this afternoon (my time). Once trading day starts in Australia, if the price doesn’t move sharply my way, I’m closing it.
Moves in most currencies were so sharp, that I have to wait some time before I decide what to do. For the kind of set ups I’m looking for, most charts need anot
September 26th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Dull trading day.in: General, Trades
I spent most of the day starring at the screen and not doing much. Only took about a third of the trades I usually have per day, and even those were without much conviction, or orders were not filled. Perfect example are potential trades are posted here yesterday. They didn’t happen. Both pairs came within very few pips of being executed, but not quite. Well, this is the way it goes sometimes.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-aud-2.jpg
And here is the other one.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/nzd-chf-1.jpg
By the way, these orders are still valid and I keep them active for now.
Despite slow down over last couple of days, I had a good week. First few trades I mentioned here were good size winners, so on the balance there is nothing to complain. Yesterday I mentioned that our lawmakers reached a deal on the bailout of troubled financial institutions. That report was premature, as it turned out. The agreement has not been reached, is not ironed out or something like that. In the meantime another bank failed, this time it is Washington Mutual. The biggest bank failure in US history. Also happens to be the one where I have my basic accounts. JP Morgan Chase bought it, so that is my new bank now.
I never had too much money in any one account, so there is nothing to worry about, money is safe. There is an irony here, though. It would have been a sacrilege for them to misappropriate my money - no help needed, I can do that very well myself, happened many times before.
Time for
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September 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am
No direction.in: General, Trades
That is one way to put it. After last couple of weeks, and the large moves then, it feels very slow now. Few pips this way, than the other. Finally some moves few hours ago, USD got stronger, but other crosses are still just spinning wheels. Let’s take the one I targeted earlier, for example, EUR-AUD. I had a buy order at 1.7675.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-aud-1.jpg
Trade was filled, if just, and then promptly ran against me. I gave it a little more room than prudent, but eventually got out at at 1.7584, for a loss of 91 pips. What we are seeing here is basically sideways action. I decided to get out. One can always enter on next breakout, that is why there is a buy order 1.7695. If there is a move above last high.
At the same time I’m eying NZD-CHF. It is very close to being reverse of EUR-AUD, but I tend to analyze currencies on their own merritts and not in terms of correlation or lack of one.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/nzd-chf.jpg
I’m looking for a buy at 0.7495. My target here is less ambitious, 0.7550.
Just across the wires- congress reached agreement on bailout. I’m done for the day, besides, I don’t trade fundamental announcements. Whatever happens ov
September 23rd, 2008 at 10:13 am
Still arguing.in: General, Trades
No, not me. I hate arguments, and simply disengage and do my thing anyways. The congress and treasury people. This bail out, everybody is talking about, our esteemed legislative body is making a Turkish bazaar over it. And good, I hope they reject it, instead of assuming another mountain of debt. At any rate, they will do what they may, and I’m just wasting my time even thinking about it. I’d better concentrate on trading.
Trade I posted here in last post worked out as intended, albeit with some jitters. Yesterday I bought GBP-CHF at 1.9980, objective was 2.0120.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-chf-1.jpg
I just closed it about half an hour ago for a gain of 140 pips. Trade lasted almost exactly 24 hours. If you recall, previous few weeks I concentrated on GBP-JPY. I will return to it in due time. On Friday I mentioned possibly having ne best friend this week (currency pair to trade). I wanted to focus on AUD crosses, with an expectation of Aussie getting stronger. So far my new friend is not really friendly to me, but I want to try something here. Yes, this is AUD but in different role.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-aud.jpg
Looking at EUR-AUD seems to me Aussie is going to weaken some more. I placed a buy order at 1.7675 and a target of 1.7800-1.7820. After that, I think, Australian dollar will get stronger.
In the latest
September 22nd, 2008 at 9:49 am
Good start.in: General, Trades
Week opened up on a right note for me. Initial moves were as big as I expected, but things did pick up once Europe opened for business. What is on everybody’s mind, are the details of this much vaunted bail out proposal. Since, so far, they are unavailable, dollar is slowly drifting lower. in some instances, not that slowly. Like the trade I was in - long EUR-USD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-usd-1.jpg
Entry at 1.4550, exit at 1.4750, 200 pips. Very good trade. I did not expect it to happen so fast, since I used 4H charts, nonetheless it is great.
I’m moving away from dollar pairs, as there is going to be some wicked moves there. As more and more information emerges about the FED intervention, market is going to react to it. I’m not not even going to try predicting what if….. Logic would dictate, that USD is going to get weaker under the mountain of new debt, but logic is not the best predictor. I’ll let other people to fight it.
As for myself, I’m taking a stub at GBP-CHF.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-chf.jpg
I just bought it at 1.9980. Objective for this trade is about 2.0120.
There is going to
September 21st, 2008 at 7:16 am
Now, what?in: General, Trades
This is not your typical exasperated question from a confused trader. For once this simple phrase has a real meaning. On Friday US treasury announced a bail out of distressed financial institutions, by “removing toxic mortgage loans off their books”. This bombastic statement was very short on details. Over the weekend Paulson, Bernanke and Busch have been trying to push it through congress, and so far it is not a sure sell. As of this writing, the estimated cost of this action is 700-1000 Billion. Nobody is even sure what positive results, if any, this intervention might cause. If this “package” (better name is Trojan horse) is approved, it will guarantee only one thing - US public debt will be raised from ridiculous levels into the realm of absurd.
The final details of this so called “rescue plan”, will not be known till at least Monday, maybe Tuesday. One should expect a lot of indecision in early trading on Sunday. While it is very likely that the moves are going to be large, overflow from Friday, trends can change with any news or rumours.
Personally I will not be trying to guess how markets are going to react to news, so there will not be much trading for me on the time frames that are suitable for posting here.I’m placing one order for now.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-usd.jpg
This is a very tentative buy of EUR-USD at 1.4550, looking for 200-250 pips gain. Notice this is 4H chart used, this trade might take some time. By the time Europe opens tonight, initial jitters might out and new set ups might emerge.
I will be watching early trading with interest. If it is really wild, I’ll likely take some trades on small time frames like 1M, 5M charts, but small size. One must be p
September 20th, 2008 at 5:23 am
NZD- ready for a rally?in: Articles, General
New Zealand dollar has been in a severe sell off for a few months. Has it found the bottom and, if so, how high can it rally from here?Over last few years we have witnessed historic drop in US dollar. Many currencies found themselves in a prolonged up trend, some of them reaching dizzying levels. Most notable has been Euro, which moved into all time high of over 1.6000. Canadian dollar also visited never before seen levels. Most remaining major currencies staged very impressive runs of their own. One of them was New Zealand dollar.NZD, also known as “Kiwi” experienced perhaps the most telling rally of them all. Between 2001 and early 2008 it moved 0.4000 to 0.8200, effectively doubling in value against USD. We don’t see something like this often, certainly not among currencies of major, established economies. Very impressive.Earlier this year USD started to regain some strength. While eventually dollar gained ground on all currencies, NZD was the first one to exhibit weakness and turn. This happened in spite of having the highest interest rates in the developed world. According to some, they were the leading reason in Kiwi’s earlier rise. By the time Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates for the first time in 5 years, NZD-USD had already lost 700 pips. That was in July.
Since then NZD experience continued fall. Being one of the so called “commodities currencies”, it got under pressure when raw materials prices started to fall. After that economic news from coming from Auckland went from bad to worse: rising inflation and unemployment, huge slow down in house sales, loss of consumer confidence, etc,. List can go on and on.
By the time RBNZ was cutting rates again on September 11th, New Zealand dollar fell over 1700 to just under 0.6500. In a rather surprising move, the rates were lowered by 0.50% as opposed to expected 0.25%. Much to the surprise of trading public, this action failed to cause farther drop in NZD. There was a slide lasting couple of hours followed by a sharp rebound.
Is the worst over? While economy of New Zealand has not improved, news from other countries became much worse. It appears there is a world wide economic slow down, if not all out recession. From now on, most of the central banks are expected to be cutting rates. This means, that Kiwi will likely maintain large interest rate differential, making it an attractive instrument for investors seeking above average rates.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/nzd-usd-edited.jpg
Looks like the recent low of 0.6500, will hold for some time. On technical bases, we can expected rally from current levels to perhaps as high as 0.7500. It is very unlikely we will see a very fast, strong move, but rather measured, steady appreciation in NZD-USD, lasting perhaps 6 months or so. Incidentally, that is not going to be just against US dollar, but rather broader Kiwi strength.It must be pointed out, that very long term charts, monthly, are still
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September 19th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Very nice.in: General, Trades
Everything else seems to be moving a lot, so way not the currencies? Another big day. Across the board. Good moves in all JPY crosses. The dollar pairs were not behind, with dollar loosing ground. The yen weakness aided my cause, since I’ve been on a buying spree in GBP-JPY. Beast did not disappoint me, making very nice charge to 197.00 .
http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/3884/gbpjpy4ea9.jpg
One trade today. Bought on a breakout above 192.00, with entry at 192.10. My target was 194.00, for nice 190 pips. After that price just ran away from me, not giving other entry point. Over last couple of weeks I took a lot of trades in GBP-JPY, with my overall target of about 198.00. Now that the price is so close, I’ll probably find a new “best friend”. More about it after the weekend.
There was one more trade I talked about on these pages, a buy in AUD-CAD.
http://img83.imageshack.us/img83/4386/audcad1ff9.jpg
This one also worked as hoped for. Entry was at 0.8625 and objective of 0.8725. Turned out to be fairly quick trade for 100 pips gain.
Overall I had a good week, even though I missed a lot of action early on because of my travels.
I’ve been looking closely at NZD and AUD lately and after the huge drop these currencies experienced, I’m slowly turning bullish on them. I will post something tomorrow about it, so come back and check it out.
Have a
September 18th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Financial meltdown.in: General, Trades
This kind of headlines are screaming at us from every direction. Another ones I liked - “Wall Street nightmare continues” or “Global financial crisis”. FED seems to be bailing out everybody in trouble in order to prevent an all out panic. Instead of complaining, traders should embrace opportunities here. Depending on the market one trades, we might be seeing best moving markets for many years to come. Huge daily fluctuations create fantastic trading environment. To be sure, risks are elevated as well.
What I personally most fascinating here is the collapse of investment banking houses. Now, these are people supposedly best in this business, who have best access to markets, hell, they make the markets. Their stuff comprises of some of the smartest brains on the planet, after the best business schools and most experienced financial decision makers. How can they, collectively, fail so miserably? Just goes to show you how really difficult trading is.
I didn’t post update yesterday, something came up and I was busy. At any rate, since last post I made 2 trades in GBP-JPY, the pair I have been following for some time. One was loosing and the other one was a winner.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-3.jpg
Running the risk of redundancy, I have another buy order at 192.10. Tomorrow I’ll post a longer term chart and explain why I’m so hell bent on buying this pair.
I think that we are going to see some renewed strength in Australian dollar. I’ll be testing it to the upside, trying different crosses, pretty much whatever looks best the moment. Currently it is AUD-CAD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/aud-cad.jpg
Order was placed to buy on a breakout above 0.8625 with an objective of100 pips. Of course, I’m not sure if the worst is over for Aussie, but I”m willing to start testing it from now on.
Back to
September 16th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Indecision.in: General, Trades
This goes both for me and the markets. The indecision part,that is. In light of great deal of uncertainty, coming from the events on Wall Street, money flowed into both Swiss Franc and Japanese Yenat a high rate. Both of these currencies had showed large appreciation. That is somewhat typical for CHF, which historically speaking, has been a choice of speculators during times like now. Interestingly enough, Yen started to fill this role as well. This probably has to do with Japanese markets operating, to large degree, a little “detached’ from world events. I will be the first to admit, though, the above statement is value, at best.
At any rate, I would expect couple of days of sideways action, with contracting ranges. Markets, well, market players, are waiting for more news to facilitate decision making process.
Yesterday morning, my time, I entered into EUR-AUD trade. I sold it, looking for the price to move down.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-aud-2.jpg
I entered the market at 1.7610 and exited at 1.7780. That was 170 pips loss. I’m going to leave this cross for now, with a possibility to revisit it before weekend.
My other market of interest just kept falling with all other JPY crosses, until it bounced sharply few hours ago. I was ready for it and made a few pips.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-2.jpg
My entry was 186.30 and I made 100 pips father fast. But I waited almost 2 days to make this trade…
At this point I don’t really see the kind of set ups I’m looking for. On top of that, I’d like to wait maybe a day for the prices to settle down, especially on 1H charts. It’
September 15th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Big moves again.in: General, Trades
Just like last week, this opening was explosive. Big moves in all USD pairs as well as JPY crosses and anything in between. I didn’t participate, as mentioned yesterday, I was traveling. On top of that, my excursion took longer than anticipated, so I didn’t do any trading. Until just now that is. If you recall, I was planning a trade in EUR-AUD on a short side. Since the open, price moved in opposite direction. I think it is mostly done for the day and just few minutes ago I sold it at 1.7610.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-aud-1.jpg
This trade has an objective of 1.7425. I’m leaving it at that for now.
My other potential trade was in GBP-JPY. I had great stretch trading this pair last week.However, there was no trade there yesterday, as prices drifted mostly lower. I did place a specific trade here, though.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-1.jpg
I missed earlier jump above 189.00. My current attempt is to buy 190.85, seeking 192.00. I’m going to a bit more attentive now, moving the entry if the price keeps moving down.
Certainly big news about Lehman and Merill. Even though something like this was expected, markets were very uncertain. I talked to some traders who told me that spreads remained wide for very long time, and also there was some liquidity shortage. This is what happens when really big boys go under. At leas
September 14th, 2008 at 8:49 am
New week.in: General, Trades
Last few days were very good for me. Just the trades featured here worked out extremely well and I’d like nothing more but to continue doing what I was doing. This might not be possible in the same form. I have to do some traveling later on today, after the market opens, so it will be impractical for me to follow GBP-JPY as closely as I should. Ideally, some pull back would be welcome here, proceeded with a buy above most recent high.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy.jpg
As you wight notice from the enclosed chart, I don’t really see any eminent entry here. I will not be able to keep close eye on the markets until at least European open, so in the meantime I’m placing longer term order . Pair is EUR-AUD and direction is down.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/eur-aud.jpg
Sell order is placed at 1.7195 with an objective of 1.6950. Notice that 4 H chart is used, so it might take a while for this trade to complete.
There might be some serious moves at the open, just like last week. Since I will not take part in trading during this time, however, this is not my place to voice any opinions. No trade - no comment.
More tomo
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September 12th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Beastly move.in: General, Trades
So, it finally came. Move in GBP-JPY. After couple of days of starring at the screen and adjusting orders, the “beast” ran my way. The buy order at 187.60 was filled and not much later I was out at 188,60 with 100 pips. Once prices retreated a little bit, another buy order was placed.http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-8.jpg
This one was at 189.00, just above previous high. Shortly after the trade was executed, and just couple of hours later target of 190.20 was reached. Verygood day. After that I just sat back, enjoyed the moment and watched with amazement as GBP-JPY just kept climbing. “Beast” lived up its name, moving about 700 pips in a day. It can be really scary to be on the wrong side of a move like this.
I had one more trade posted in this blog, a buy in AUD-USD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/aud-usd-4.jpg
This one also paid 100 pips, only it took a little longer.
That was a very good week for me, 4 good trades in GBP-JPY and one in AUD-USD cleared over 700 pips. I only wish it was always like that…
At
September 11th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Maybe today.in: General, Trades
This going to be a short post. The two trades I’ve been waiting for, I still am. Small adjustments were made so here are the new orders
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/aud-usd-3.jpg
And the beast
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-7.jpg
I’m a little time strapped, but tomorrow’s post will be longer and I’ll cover more ground….
Mike
September 10th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Slow down.in: General
Things have slowed down for somewhat for me, and, I think, for a lot of people. These big moves have settled down a little bit, like waves after the storm. Until new one comes, and it for what we know it might start tomorrow. Here is how intended trades look like now. First GBP-JPY
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-6.jpg
Price made new for this move, so my buy order was adjusted to 190.80, with a target of 192.00. On hourly charts it looks like this pair is trying to built a bottom. This process is going through some pains. This means, that if this area proves to be a bottom, it will be a significant one. But we still have to wait…..
Very similar situation in AUD-USD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/aud-usd-2.jpg
This buy was moved down to 0.8135, following the price path. Not much else to add.
September 9th, 2008 at 11:24 am
What is the next move?in: General, Trades
For the GBP-JPY of course. I continued my buying binge in the beast and it worked out fine. There was one more trade. I followed the price down with my buy order and ultimately it was triggered at 190.00. I used 15M charts for that and my target was 191.00.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-4.jpg
This was nice 100 pips. The range seems to contracting now. That is in relation to last few days, of course, as the real moves still remain large. Easily about 100 pips an hour. The problem is, market is coiling itself for next move, so right now I’m going to zoom out to 1H charts.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-5.jpg
Right now I have a buy at 191.30, with a target of about 192.50-193.00. This might take a while to develop. I will still keep an eye on 15M charts if the price keeps falling and suitably large swings develop.
I’m also watching AUD-USD with an interest. Here is 1H chart
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/aud-usd.jpg
I’d like to buy it here at 0.8190 and try to see it go to 0.8300. This also looks like it might take some time, maybe couple of days. Here I have no intentions
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September 8th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Volatility.in: General, Trades
Did everybody like the start of the week? I think it was beautiful. Crazy moves then reversals. Wow! All JPY crosses as well as dollar pairs . In all honesty, though environment like this is only great if you are on the right side of the moves. Otherwise it is not much fun and can be very dangerous- accounts get wiped out on a day like this one. Back to my trade, the GBP-JPY long position that was opened late on Friday.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-2.jpg
My intended target was 191.00, but the price jumped right through it. The open on my platform turned out to be 192.70 and that’s how the broker closed my position. This turned out to be a gain of 215 pips. I’m rather happy with the outcome.
Since the beast is still moving like crazy, I’m going to stick with it and see what happens. I’m still buying.
Now that there was a retracement , I placed a buy order on 15 m charts.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-3.jpg
Current order is at 192.10 with a target of 194.00 or so, but if the price keeps falling it will likely be moved down to 190.00.
As much as would like the volatility to remain as is, it will not stay like this for very long. I mean, for how long can the daily ranges be over 600 pips? I think tomorrow I’ll take a look at 4H charts and see if we are building some important bottom here, or is this pair, and other Yen crosses, destined to go much
September 7th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Surprise.in: General, Trades
What did I write in the post on Friday? That I didn’t expect my GBP-JPY buy order to filled soon. Imagine my surprise when I was doing my “before the weekend” routine and noticed what had happened over last hour of trading.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy.jpg
I’m firmly in this trade at 189.55. This last hour moves happened across most of the currency pairs I follow. That changed my plans about additional trades. At this time I’m not placing any new orders, at least not on the time frames I discuss here. But it is going to be a busy week.
Busy.in: General, Trades
End of the week and I’m rather happy, since I didn’t get much sleep last night. All because of GBP-JPY. Just as I thought that things were quiet for a day, all hell broke loose. JPY really went berserk and pulled GBP another 300 pips lower. This looked like a blow out pattern. This term usually applies to tops, but the same applies to bottoms. With moves this large, I moved to 5M charts and placed a buy order.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-4.jpg
I made a 100 pips here. After that things slowed down somewhat, at least were not that explosive. I switched to 15M charts and started place new buy order. I had to move it couple of times before there was next upside break out.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-5.jpg
Next trade was filled at 187.80 and reached its target of 188.80 rather fast. So not much sleep but decent gains. Over all not a bad week.
I will stay with GBP-JPY and maybe some other Yen pairs, still seeking trades to the upside. I’m not entirely convinced that this has been the bottom of this large move. Situation painted over last couple of days just doesn’t have the strong characteristics of a reverse that I’d like to see.
If I was, I’d simply buy here and hold until 198.00. As is, my targets are less ambitious, like 100-150 pips on breakouts above highs on 1H charts.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-6.jpg
This is my next order. Doesn’t look like it is going to be filled today. Frankly, I hope it won’t. I’ll gladly wait till after the weekend. On a related topic, USD
September 4th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Things get tricky.in: General, Trades
Trading GBP-JPY is always challenging, no exception this time. I’ve been lowering my entry to just above most recent high on 1H charts. Finally a minor high was taken out and I was in at 192.55.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-2.jpg
The previous swing was rather small, so I had to limit my target to 100 pips or 193.55. It was taken out by only 2 pips. Good thing. Couple of hours later I placed new buy order at 193.65. Unfortunately, what followed was another steep sell off, so I cancelled that order.
I still like the beast here, it moves a lot and things happen quickly, so I’m zooming in to a 15M chart.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy-3.jpg
It is very late in a trading day now and I don’t think this trade will be executed. But I’m going to leave it as is until European open tomorrow, when I might focus out to 1H charts and see what happens. If this current order is filled by then.
While talking about the Pound. The Official Bank Rate was left unchanged at 5% and so was Euro’s Minimum Bid Rate at 4.25%. Not much to comment on.
Mike
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September 3rd, 2008 at 9:50 am
No trade.in: General, Trades
It has been somewhat slow day, at least for this type of trades I document here. I spent most of the day watching AUD and NZD crosses, as that is where there was some activity, but I don’t see the kind of set ups I’m looking for. My intended trade in GBP-JPY didn’t happen. Regardless, I still maintain buy order, only it was moved.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-nzd-2.jpg
Beast is not moving as violently as before, but it is still creeping down. Order was moved to 193.47, with a target of 195.00. There is one thing to be aware of. The Official Bank Rate will be decided tomorrow, so there is sure to be some reaction after the announcement. No change is the expected outcome. Well, I don’t bother guessing what the decision will be and the reaction to it, and these are two completely separate matters. I’m sure
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:40 am
After the break.in: General, Trades
O.K, I didn’t really take a breather, but neither did I update my trades yesterday. Before the holiday I wrote that some volatility was expected during Asian and European sessions. Turned out to be a little more than I thought. But it doesn’t mean it was all fun and games. For one, the trade I intended in EUR-CHF didn’t happen. Price moved away from my entry and that was it. I’m leaving it alone for now.
GBP-NZD was another story, though. Here it is.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-nzd-1.jpg
My entry order was left at 2.6120, although I should have moved it down yesterday to 2.6000 or so. Failing to do that, I had to readjust my take profit target to 2.6220 from 2.6250. In the end the target was reached and exceeded if only by few pips. I got lucky here, but once you place enough trades, situations like this happen from time time. 100 pips gain.
AUD rate has been cut several hours ago from 7.25% to 7.00% and Aussie responded by falling, but is recovering nicely now. Highlight of the day. Nothing there for me now. I’m looking at some other currencies that moved a lot lately- JPY and GBP and more to the point GBP-JPY, the beast.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-jpy.jpg
Looks like there is a possible reversal being built on 1H charts. I have a BUY order at 195.00. If it is filled target would be at 196.50 and maybe even secondary target of 198.00. If the price keeps falling I’ll movethis order to just above most recent high on 1H charts. Now I wait.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:59 am
What’s next for Cable?in: General
Pound Sterling has been in the news lately. And the news coming out of UK have been abysmal. I mean it.Figures reported in August showed house prices fell at their fastest pace since 1991, while retail sales plunged to their lowest level in 25 years. These are pretty bad numbers by anyone’s standards and they culminated in news that economic growth ground to a halt in the second quarter. In fact, all that caused the biggest monthly decline since October 1992. That’s really something. Remember what happened then?Great Britain left European Exchange Rate Mechanism which resulted in a huge Pound sell off. That is when George Soros “broke” the Bank of England and reportedly made $ 1B in one day, something that is stilled widely discussed in all financial circles. GBP-USD fell 8.6% in October 1992. For comparison purposes, August saw a tumble of 8.2 %. It is rather significant.
I receive all kinds of newsletters and Forex predictions and virtually nobody predicted this severe plunge. Now, however, seems like everybody is screaming for 1.7000 level to come very soon.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/gbp-usd-edited.jpg
Personally I don’t think it will happen just like that. Even if the price collapses to 1.7000 , chances are we are going to see a significant rally, to maybe as high as 1.9200 first. Of course I’m looking at weekly charts, so none of this will happen tomorrow, but for now I’ll be on a lookout for signs of reversal on daily and 4H charts. There might be some good buying opportunities soon.
Mike
August 31st, 2008 at 9:21 am
Labor Day.in: General, Trades
Happy Labor Day! For most people it means a long weekend, with Monday off. This might be not a bad idea for Forex traders as well. Why? Traditionally, not much is happening on this day during US trading hours, and the rest of the dais subdued as well. But you never know….
With the latest volatility in GBP and JPY, both Asian and European sessions might provide just enough movement to make it worthwhile. You never know for sure before.
With that in mind I’m placing couple of orders in, even though my expectations are rather low for large move. First one is EUR-CHF.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-chf.jpg
I want to buy it at 1.6181 and the target zone is indicated by blue oval at 1.6240. In other words, about 60 pips run. With my next order I’m looking back to the successes from earlier last week. That’s right, GBP-NZD revisited.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-nzd.jpg
Here I’m looking for a breakout above 2.6120 and my target is 2.6250. As mentioned earlier, I really don’t expect too much happening untill Tuesday, but you never know. Speaking of GBP, I did some analysis on weekly charts of GBP-CHF. I’ll post it tomorrow, so if you like trading the Pound come back
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August 29th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Well, well….in: General, Trades
Maybe not that well. The week started on a fast note, with 2 very good trades in GBP-NZD. After that things have cooled down, at least the trades featured here and I will not discuss other ones, since they were not mentioned before. I must admit, JPY has been faking me and today was nor exception. After the failed trade yesterday I placed another buy order, as explained in previous post.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-jpy-5.jpg
Price never reached my entry, quite the opposite- swiftly moved the other way. Oh, well.
I did however get filled in GBP-CHF trade.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-chf-1.jpg
Bought at 2.0105, stopped at 2.0050, loss of 55 pips. At least my losses were much smaller than wins.
I wish everybody great long weekend!
August 28th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Mixing it up.in: General, Trades
Don’t know about you, but I’m a little surprised about JPY strength here. About a month ago I was almost sure JPY was going on a run. Well, it didn’t, so I changed my mind. While Yen is not really strong, is nowhere as near as I thought it would be. Case in point
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-jpy-4.jpg
As you can see my order was filled at 161.45, only to be stopped out at 161.00 for -45 pips. I’m not giving up that easily another order is in place at 160.75. Only difference is, I cut the size in half.
In the meantime I placed an order in GBP-CHF. This on eis also a buy order.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-chf.jpg
We’ll see how this work. Long at 2.0105 looking for about 100 pips. Hopefully before weekend.
August 27th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Just an update.in: General
O.K., not much has happened with much intended trade. Well, not strictly speaking true because price moved close to the entry price, just not through it yet. Here is how it looks like
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-jpy-3.jpg
So, in short, I’m still waiting. Order is valid for now, and it stays.
Looks like a lot of currency pairs are building reversal patterns on hourly charts. Now, this time frame has to be given a little more time for the patterns to be prove or disprove themselves. And since I update this blog when I do, moves might happen before next update. I’m sure some other trades will present themselves soon.
August 26th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Wish it was always like that.in: General, Trades
Sometimes trades work out exactly as you plan it, or better. By better I mean very fast, faster than expected. This was one of those time. My trade in GBP-NZD was triggered very fast and reached its objective very fast, too.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-nzd-3.jpg
As you can see, trade happened as intended and resulted in a quick 200 pips. Notice the gap in price here. For some reason the charting application of this trading platform was down. Trading was not effected, only the charts. This kind of things happen sometimes with online brokers. What can you do?
My other order, to buy EUR-JPY has not been filled yet. As a matter of fact, price is falling and running away from me. I’m adjusting my order. That’s how it looks like now.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-jpy-2.jpg
I have moved the buy order down to 161.54.Target still remains about 100 pips, but will depend to a degree on how the price moves and how long it takes. Regardless, it has been a good day, time to rest.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Fast start.in: General, Trades
Markets had decent moves today, not bad for beginning of the week. By “today” I mean Sunday night and Monday. One of the trades I featured yesterday came to a speedy conclusion. I placed to BUY orders astride the market, they were OCO. One of them was filled.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-nzd-1.jpg
Trade realized a gain of 150 pips. I’m placing another set of OCO buy orders here.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-nzd-2.jpg
This time the swing is a little wider, so my target is also bigger- about 200 pips for either of initiated trades.
If you recall I had another trade planned yesterday, and that one didn’t happen. Price came very close to the buy level, but then retreated.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-jpy-1.jpg
This is still valid entry, if the price is reached soon. I’m going to carry it for at least one more day and see what happens.
See you tomorrow!
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August 24th, 2008 at 4:14 am
One more time.in: General, Trades
I hope everybody is ready to start a new week of trading. I sure am. On Friday I closed a GBP-NZD trade and I also mentioned that this pair still interests me. Upon farther review I decided to try it again. This time two buy orders are placed, one above and one below the current market, or more precisely, Friday’s close.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-nzd.jpg
Basically I want to buy in this general area. I think that the market is going to go higher from here, but a small leg down on the open is very possible. Hence two orders, they are OCO or One Cancells Other. In other words, only one of them will be filled. They are at 2.6180 and2.6040. I’m looking for a 100-150 pips move.
There is another trade I contemplate, also a buy but in EUR-JPY.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-jpy.jpg
My order is placed at 163.15 and objective is about 100 pips or 164.15.
I anticipate busy week, for me that is, markets, well, who knows. As mentioned before, only a small part of trades is documented here, since it is impractical to comment on all of them. Even so, there should me more trades featured than normally.
August 23rd, 2008 at 5:33 am
August 22nd, 2008 at 11:13 am
Tepid week.in: General, Trades
All good things must come to an end. Fortunately, not so good things also end (most of the time). This week is prime example on not so good thing. In all honesty, there is not much to complain.I mean the trading was not on fire, so what? Normal thing in this business. So let’s take a look at the couple of trades I presented here. I closed both of them.
First was long trade in AUD-CHF.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/aud-chf-3.jpg
After being up and down I decided to close it about an hour ago. My price was 0.9550, or a 10 pips gain. I still think this pair has upside potential, but it was not intention to to sit on this trade into the weekend, so I’m out.
Next trade was also a buy, this time in GBP-NZD. I entered it at the market yesterday, but also don’t want to carry it over the weekend.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-nzd-2.jpg
I closed this one 2.6085, or a marginal gain of 20 pips. My line of thinking at this time is that I will likely revisit this pair next week, but I want to go over all other charts, crack the probabilities and decide in couple of days.
Tomorrow I’ll post something about summer slow down, so you might want to check it out and see if it’s possible to profit from it.
Time to rest. Have a great weekend!
August 21st, 2008 at 10:40 am
One more trade.in: General, Trades
I decided to add one more trade to my thin portfolio. I have not been very active this week, just like I expected. Between the olympics and the summer slowdown…. Well, about that slow down. I will post something longer on the subject on Saturday. Not from my arcive, but new work. I think you’ll like it. Back to trading. I just opened a ne position, take a look.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-nzd.jpg
Just 15 M ago or so I went long BGP-NZD at the market, with my fill being 2.6065. I’m looking for a move to about 2.6200. If possible I’d like to be out of this trade before weekend, but now it is up to the markets to do their thing. And I’m still in AUD-CHF.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Under way.in: General, Trades
It has been rather long wait, but something is finally happening. My AUD-CHF buy order was filled .
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/aud-chf-2.jpg
Trade is under way. I’ll probably give it another day and if I see some other promising trades developing, I might just close it. We will see.
This is just a short update as i have to tend to some business.More to follow.
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August 19th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Still waiting.in: General
What do you know? I’m still waiting for my orders to be executed. There is one small difference; I adjusted entry for GBP-CHF. Here is how it looks like
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-chf-2.jpg
I moved down to 2.0460. My target is about 100 pips, but it also depends on time, or more precisely time of the day. Trends tend to run out or reverse at certain times of day, so those could be good time to exit a trade, especially if the price is close to the intended target. I use time of day exits very often in my trading, but they can’t be really used as a stand alone method, but rather a part of broader approach.
My
August 18th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Slow….in: General
It has been a relatively slow day through the prism of my intended trades. There was some movement, nothing great, but not much in the two crosses of interest here. Well, that shouldn’t be really surprising. After all I’m using 1H charts for these 2 set ups, so sideways movement can feel prolonged here, while, in fact, is still within expectation for the set up. For now I’ll be patient and stay with this orders.
Speaking about slow down. Historically speaking, we should expect prices to settle down after the large moves of last few weeks. This would coincide nicely with vacation season, which is augmented by ongoing Olympics. I would expect somewhat of a price consolidation on daily charts to last for the rest of the month. That is a typical summer pattern.
August 17th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
Focus CHF.in: General, Trades
I’m starting the week trying to short CHF. Two orders were placed, one to BUY GBP-CHF at 2.0510.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-chf.jpg
I’m looking for a breakout to the up side, or CHF weakness, target is 100 pips. Second order is in AUD-CHF and the target is also about 100 pips.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/aud-chf.jpg
Here the buy order is placed at0.9560. Swiss Franc just doesn’t look all that impressive here. I have to watch the GBP-AUD interplay here. Depending on the relationship
August 15th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Not this time.in: General, Trades
Very conflicting signals were sent by forex markets today. NZD got significantly stronger today, while EUR weakened across the board. Dollar remained strong, also the commodities currencies regained some ground. Over the weekend I will take a close look at longer term charts and see if I can any clues as to farther price movement. I must have a fresh head for that, and at the end of the week my mind is anything but fresh.
I had good week, especially the trades published in this blog. Out of 5 published trades, 4 made money and the last one didn’t happen. See for yourself.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-chf-3.jpg
Trade didn’t happen. Euro experienced severe weakness and price moved the other, never reaching entry level. Going into the weekend I have no open trades featured here. I’m going to watch some Olympics, relax and start all over on Sunday.
Have a great weekend!
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August 14th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Nice.in: General, Trades
I’ll get to the point as time is of essence. Trade from yesterday, GBP-CHF, long position, worked out very well. My entry was at 2.0350 with a 100 pips target.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-chf-2.jpg
I’m going to try CHF cross once again here, before weekend. This time focus goes to EUR-CHF.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-chf-2.jpg
I placed a buy order at 1.6245. From the look of this chart my objective is at 1.6290, or 45 pips. A lot of people avoid trading this pair, because is not moving enough. This is a little bit misleading. First of all this is not the old boring EUR-CHF from even few years ago, when an average daily range could be 30-40 pips. These days this cross often has volume higher than USD-CHF. On occasions it even has bigger ranges, even though they
August 13th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
That was quick.in: General, Trades
There was a slow down in some price developments, while other crosses remained very active. For the most part USD has paused its advance, except for against GBP. Cable really took a beating today. The Kiwi and Aussie on the other hand, rebounded sharply, after their precipitous fall. Time will show if this is the bottom. I don’t think so and expect farther price deterioration over time, but what do I know?
There is something surprising in recent price action- currencies virtually didn’t react to the crisis in Georgia. Granted, it is very localized, but at times of high oil prices to could potentially spur another price run. Whose to say, that Russia will not stop exports for some time, taking about 10M barrels a day off the market? Should that, or even talk about happen, just imagine the wild gyrations in all securities, including currencies.
But, as stated many times before, I don’t trade the news, or their implications, only the charts.
Speaking of which, here is my trade from yesterday in USD-CAD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/usd-cad-2.jpg
I entered the trade at 1.0622 and few hours later I was done at 1.0672, 50 pips. I’m happy with it.
At this point I have little conviction about directions of most crosses and would like to give price time to develop . But I’m going to try a small trade here.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/gbp-chf.jpg
I think of buying GBP-CHF at 2.0350. Objective here is about 100 pips. I expect Thursday to be relatively quiet, but Friday to see some volatility.
August 12th, 2008 at 11:21 am
At last!in: General, Trades
After some serious waiting my trade in CAD-CHF came to a satisfactory conclusion today. Take a look.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/cad-chf-5.jpg
I finally got out at 1.0200 or 55 pips profit here. This kind of positions can really test your patience and resolve. Unfortunately, when trading breakouts, either up or down, price will rarely move in a straight line. This kind of price behavior is mach more common. Statistically speaking, breakout, if successful, will go more less straight to the target only about 30-35% of the time. There are some filters that can improve this ratio a little bit, but I’ll leave for other time. Bottom line is, one has to learn to live with situations like above many times over.
My next trade is in USD-CAD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/usd-cad.jpg
Canadian dollar has been on a little power trip today. I think it is around reaction point and will bounce from this approximate area. Mind you I don’t know if USD-CAD will turn around here and make a new high, my goal is to look for 50 pips run up. I entered about 20 minutes ago at 1.0622.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Very choppy.in: General, Trades
Rather challenging waiting environment today. Most of the currencies lost their previous directions, they seem to trying it both ways. To be sure, even these swings are quite large, and an attentive trader can make a living here. That’s not me, at least not on these trades. Like this one from yesterday, long AUD-NZD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/aud-nzd-2.jpg
I entered right after the open, at 1.2626. Price to within few pips of my target, but then retreated. I hate when this happens, and decided to exit my position at a close of that hourly bar. The price turned out to be 1.2669 or gain of 43 pips. Turned out to be right decision, as the market sold off. I got lucky.
Now, my longer standing trade, CAD-CHF.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/cad-chf-4.jpg
Here the price also came withinfew pips to my target, but, honestly I overlooked it, being busy elsewhere. I didn’t get out and I’m still in it. I’m going to give it another 24 H and if the price doesn’t reach the objective, I’ll likely just get out. All this will depend on some other factors, like are there any other potential set ups developing, etc,
Till
August 10th, 2008 at 6:38 am
Sensational opening.in: General, Trades
I’m referring to the Olympic Games, the opening ceremony to be precise. It’s not my intention to get into the details here, since everybody watched it, by it was sensational. The show was truly over the top and on a mind boggling scale. By the way, if you decided not to watch, check your pulse, because you are probably dead. A slight exaggeration, but you missed out.
Business of trading goes on. I still maintain a trade from last week. If you recall, that was a long position in CAD-CHF. My last post took place couple of hours before Friday closed. Over that stretch market moved my way, and currently my position is about break even.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/cad-chf-3.jpg
I still look for about 50 pips, or 1.0195-1.0200 level.
While I wait for this trade to come to a conclusion, I’m entering another one, in AUD-NZD. Plan here is to buy at market right after the open. Expected entry should be 1.2615-1.2620. Rough target is 1.2700-1.2710, while estimated stop loss is about 50 pips.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/aud-nzd.jpg
If there is a big gap UP, trade will be entered if the gap is filled within 24H. Should there be a gap DOWN at the open, trade is cancelled.
There is a lot more going on, but I don’t want to crowd these pages with excessive trades. Also, I think there will be some noticeable slow down happening later on this week. And most of all, one should put aside some time to watch the games.
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August 8th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Flat ending.in: General, Trades
While USD crosses had spectacular day, once again, I was treading water with marginal CAD-CHF trade. I was filled as intended, at 1.0145 and I’m still in it. Take a look.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/cad-chf-2.jpg
The only comment I’m going to make here is that this trade is taken into the weekend.
Now, on a more cheerful note, the Olympics have started! The time difference is formidable, but Forex traders, who are used to work around a clock will take in a stride. I can watch all the events live with impunity! You see, one more benefit of being a full time forex trader. We are absolutely competent in maintaining ridiculous schedule.
I mentioned USD earlier. Looks like it is closing the day, and week, strongly. When this happens, there are very good odds this trend will continue for a few hours after open on Sunday.
So long.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:02 am
One more day.in: General, Trades
So, that’s about it. Just one day left and the weekend again. This weekend is special indeed because the Olympic Games start. But before any of this takes place, there is still business to conduct. Trading. I’ve been inactive last couple of days, well, relatively inactive. There is almost always trading going on but since I didn’t post anything…
I wanted to discuss a possible short trade in EUR-CAD, but it seems to going through the entry point right now, soI’ll skip it. The story of the week has been USD but I’ll discuss it tomorrow. For now I think this is a set up worth trying . The cross is CAD-CHF.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/cad-chf.jpg
Here is 1H chart of the fore mentioned CAD-CHF. Looks like a potential bottom is forming, so I’ll try to go long here. Entry level is at 1.0145, on the break above last high. My objective here is 50 pips, or 1.0195. Now we wait.
August 6th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Nothing.in: General
It’s been about 24 H since last post. Unfortunately, I have nothing to report. This means I don’t have a trade to post here. I’m referring to the kind of trades you have seen in this blog before - something I consider high probability. Those set ups must also happen on certain time frames. It doesn’t make much sense to use 1M or 5M time frame for the trades I can update only once a day.
That is how trading goes. Sometimes one just have to wait until the right opportunity comes along. This can be difficult, especially for an active trader. Well, I’m going to enjoy the weather and relax. A little R&R.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:55 am
No change.in: General
All right, by now everybody knows, FED decided to leave interest rates unchanged. That was the “street consensus”, so no surprise. This is the fact I want to stress- NO SURPRISE. In other words, business as usual. If this is the fact, than why the jitters. Here is what happened.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-usd.jpg
About 50 pips in EUR-USD in 4 minutes. And that is without surprises, or small reaction. The point I’m trying to make is as follows: this is why don’t trade FOMC release. Markets are way too jumpy.
The thing now for me is to wait for a few hours and see if the markets settled down. These kind of jumps distortcharts. Dollar was getting stronger before, now I want to see if the trend is going to continue or some correction is in order. Perhaps find something in non USD crosses. I’ll let you know.
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August 4th, 2008 at 10:47 am
FOMC meeting.in: General, Trades
Yes, I know it’s tomorrow. That said, this is my last post before the outcome is announced. So it happens the 2 trades featured here came to speedy and satisfying conclusion. That means I will not have close any trades before the meeting. I will likely have a couple of short term trades, but very small. Maybe something using 1M charts. We will see.
Here is my USD-CAD trade from Thursday. I made 2 trades out of it.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/usd-cad.jpg
First trade made 41 pips and second 50 pips.
And my EUR-JPY trade from late Friday.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-jpy-2.jpg
This trade reached its target of 167.95 in fairly good time after markets opened. That’s 50 pips gain. Good start to the week.
Like stated before, I don’t try to guess the outcome of the meeting tomorrow, but I’m aware when it takes place, so I can limit my exposure. I do, however, wat
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:55 am
From Friday.in: General, Trades
In my last trading post I continued coverage of USD-CAD, as that was prevailing theme. That entry was made a bout 3 hours before markets closed for the weekend. Well, some time later, as I was wrapping things up I decided to jump into one more trade. I bought EUR-JPY. My entry price turned out to be 167.45. Trade has appreciated a few pips before markets closed, but for all practical purposes is unchanged, so I can feature it here.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/eur-jpy.jpg
I’m looking for a run of about 50 pips to 167.95 or so. It is possible we will see it happen before Europe opens. O.K., than, I have 2 live short tern trades to follow. Things should be interesting from the start.
Important development coming on Tuesday. Yes, it is time once again for FOCM. In other words, interest rate decision. I have get something out in the open- I DON”T trade economic news releases. I don’t try predict what the “number” is going to be, and more importantly, I don’t try guess market’s response. Markets will do what they do, for most part surprise everybody. I consider FED announcement to be the “biggest” of the scheduled news, and try not to en
August 1st, 2008 at 9:31 am
Change of plans.in: General, Trades
Rather disappointing Friday. On some fronts at least. The large moves I’ve been after - didn’t happen. Although a straddle on GBP-USD produced some gains. Next Friday I will try again and if that doesn’t produce results, following week as well. As a reminder, I’m looking for a strong directional moves lasting half a day or so. Something to remember.
Something came up and I had to walk away from the computer for some time last night. That effected my intended USD-CAD trade. I cancelled the buy order. My intended entry of 1.0280 was exceeded by about 17 pips. Then the price collapsed. I returned to my workstation about 2 hours ago and bought USD-CAD at 1.0251.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/usd-cad-2.jpg
In all honesty I thought there would be a stronger reaction here to the upside, but it looks like I’m taking this trade into the weekend. Target here is 1.0290 and depending on what happens, maybe another trade from 1.0300 t0 1.0350. But that I will decide after the weekend. Right now my head is so full of numbers and chart images, there is no sense making any decision. Typical end of the week.
I will post something about overtrading tomorrow. It is another one of my articles which was published on numerous websites.
Have a great weekend!
July 31st, 2008 at 10:07 am
Enough.in: General, Trades
This is it, I decided to close it. Yes, the EUR-CHF position, My plan was, of course, to wait till it gets to 1.6370. Well, few hours ago it came soooo close, almost there. I exited at the top of that hour. My closing price was 1.6357, for a gain of 42 pips. After all, not too bad for this cross.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/eur-chf4.jpg
Among other things, I’m going to try USD-CADfor now. Just placed a buy order at 1.0280, with projection for 1.0340. Rather small target for the time frame use, but then again I’m hoping for a quick trade, before the weekend. That’s only one day.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/usd-cad.jpg
Speaking about one day left…. Has anybody noticed how very little has been happening on Fridays lately? I mean, there were no large moves, markets respond to news releases in luckluster manner, no direction, boredom? These phases don’t last forever, and I think we are due for a change. My intention is to try some straddle trades for USD pairs. it is not news announcements that I want to straddle, but rather time periods. For example European trading session, or US session, all day etc. I’ll keep you posted
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July 30th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Patience.in: General, Trades
One of the intangibles of trading - old patience. One has to have some in order to make it. Just take a look at this trade here. Yes, it is the same position I had been in for a couple of days. I’ve been trading actively, but since other orders were not discussed here PRIOR to placing them, than I will not talk about them. This is here-my EUR-CHF long.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/eur-chf3.jpg
Trade is creeping upwards, but it seems like it takes 2 steps forward, 1.5 back. Unfortunately, that’s life in a trading world. Still waiting for 1.6370 or so, although I will review it tonight(my time) and might just close it if I find something else worthwhile to post here.
July 29th, 2008 at 10:05 am
What a BS.in: General, Trades
I just have put it on paper, well, you know what I mean. On one of the social networks I’m a member, there are many forex groups. I signed up to a few, after seeing the posts there I decided not to participate. Those places seem to be spam heavens.Forex charlatans lurk behind every corner trying to separate fools from their money. I’m sure you know the scene, all fluff and no substance. Here is an example, just yesterday, some clown invited me to participate in his “managed account program”, where the returns are over 100% every month.
I don’t even respond to this kind of nonsense, what is the point? This is one of the reasons I started this blog, so I don’t have to put up with BS, or only my own. And if somebody tries to peddle questionable offers here, I just can delete them and ban the scumbag! Power trip!
Looks like I ditched my GBP-CHF trade way too early. It just keeps moving up. My substitution didn’t fare that well.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/eur-chf2.jpg
My order was filled at 1.6315 and is drifting sideways now. I’m staying with it for now and we will see what happens.
If things keep faltering, I can always send money to the sorcerer from….
July 28th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Another shot.in: General, Trades
I’ve decided to close my GBP-CHF trade. As a reminder, I was waiting for this pair to go down to 2.0580 with an intention to buy there. Price indeed fell an I got filled at 2.0580. I expected far stronger rebound, however. Now, that my trading day is over, a decision must be made whether to hold out for my target, or to take a few pips here and look for something else.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-chf-2.jpg
A got out at 2.0620 for 40 pips gain. Nothing great, but a profit, so nothing to complain about. I’ll keep an eye for more action here.
In the meantime, another CHF cross looks interesting. EUR-CHF seems to be ready for a breakout.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/eur-chf.jpg
I placed a sell order at 1.6315. Projected target is 1.6370. Word of explanation here. Normally I would stay with my GBP-CHF trade, but as it the end of my day and currently I don’t see another good entry point in it, I switched. In other words, I guess my conviction is not strong enough to stay in that trade. The old saying goes: “when in doubt-get out”.
July 27th, 2008 at 6:48 am
Old trade, new trade.in: General, Trades
I got an email yesterday with a question about my trading, and more precisely, how many trades a day do I take and can I post more trades here. Currently, I am able only to update this blog once a day. I don’t want to discus trades that I take out outside of these pages, but only the ones I’m able to mention BEFORE they happen. That has certain limitations. For one, I can’t really post trades derived from very short term charts. Otherwise I’d have to keep updating these pages throughout the day, and, at this time, it is not practical. So, by default, I have to focus on trades from 1H or 4H charts. This meets my posting schedule, while still providingrelatively high trade frequency. This format also allows me to post an occasional long term trade, like the GBP-JPY entry from last week, which is covered more in depth down this page.
During the day I place anywhere from 5 to 15 discretionary trades, like the ones featured here. What hasn’t been apparent so far, is that I’m somewhat of a “specialist” in mechanical trading systems. This subject will be coming up more and more as time goes on. That aside, I truly enjoy the decision making process of discretionary trading. Besides, this blog is still in a development phase and I’m sure it will be changing as time progresses. Besides, I’m open to reasonable suggestions.
Now to trading. Last Sunday I talked about a trade in GBP-JPY using daily chart. Here is what happened so far.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-jpy.jpg
The premise here was to buy at 214.10 and hold until 220.00. So far order has been filled, price ran up to 216.00, retreated and is now in positive territory. I fully expect couple more weeks for this to come to a conclusion.
THE LONGER TERM CHART USED FOR TRADING SET UP, THE LONGER THE EXPECTED TRADE DURATION.
Here is something think will be much faster. Currency pair is GBP-CHF ( pound again?!)
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-chf.jpg
I’m waiting for the price to pull back to about 2.0580 and that’s where I’d like to enter long position. This would give me a 200 pips objective, with about 100 stop loss. I normally only use hard stops if I go to bed. otherwise I watch markets and decide exit based on price development.
I wish everybody great trading week!
July 26th, 2008 at 10:25 am
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July 25th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Good ending.in: General, Trades
Just like that the week has come to an end, trading week that is. I hope it was as good for you as it was for me. But first things first. I’ve been following AUD-NZD with an intention to sell any move under latest 1H low. So far it has not happened, price is contained between most recent high and the low PREECEDING it. I’ll keep an eye on it next week, but might leave it alone if something else seems better to me.
Yesterday I established a trade in GBP-CAD. I entered at 2.0100, with an objective of about 2.0200-2.0210. Here is the chart:
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-cad-2.jpg
Price started to move within an hour of my entry. Price made s a strong run, reaching 2,0204 and retreated. I had a take profit order at 2.0210, so the price just missed it. I was asleep at that time (well, I sleep sometimes), otherwise I likely would have closed the trade at the end of that hour , or around 2.0165 or so. Few hours later price made another move up. I closed the trade manually at 2.0203 or 103 pips profit.
Not a bad trade.
In the meantime, JPY took a beating today and dollar is locked in a range, just about against all other currencies. Big moves are coming there, maybe even next week. The only problem is, which way? I think the dollar way.
Tomorrow I’ll post an article from my archive about trading news announcements.
Have a great weekend!
July 24th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Waiting game.in: General, Trades
AUD-NZD moved in the opposite direction and I moved my sell order just under last low- to 1.2775. If the price makes another high I’ll move the order again. That would be around 1.2870.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/aud-nzd-2.jpg
I hope that is the case. My entry would be much more attractive, and hopefully, come a speedy conclusion.
So, while I wait I made another trade, GBP-CAD. I just entered it long at 2.0100.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-cad.jpg
I’d like to see the price to run up by another 100-110 pips. I must stress that I’m not getting too attached to this position. I might close regardless of profit or loss before start of European Friday session. I strongly suspect there will be some strong moves in USD pairs, maybe EUR-USD? That’s what I really want to focus on.
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:59 am
What a move.in: General, Trades
Just yesterday I wrote how markets never stop amazing me. More specifically, I was discussing the pair I had a trade in, GBP-AUD. The price action has slowed down considerably, so I was content to just wait patiently for my target of 2.0580 to come about and I wanted to not to enter in additional trade above that. I you recall it had been my very original plan. Here is what happened.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-aud-4.jpg
Very happilly I took my 100 pips profit, only to watch market rocket up in few hours additional 200 + pips. I’m not really kicking myself, I traded my plan and made good profit. I’m just pointing out how situation changes constantly and, very often, plans must have to be reevaluated.
O.K., after this dose on excitment, I think next trade will be more steady. I’m looking at AUD-NZD, and I want to go short.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/aud-nzd.jpg
I’m placing a sell order just under last low at 1.2755 and looking for about 80 pips. Should the price go up more, I’ll be moving the sell order to just under most recent low. Will check it later.
July 22nd, 2008 at 10:01 am
Still in itin: General, Trades
The GBP-AUD, trade. I’m still in it. Frankly, I expected to be out of it by now, but the market wouldn’t have it. Well, that is what market does, surprises everybody and me in particular. Even after all these years of trading, price action doesn’t stop amazing it. Here is how it looks like right now.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-aud-3.jpg
I continue holding it. Remember, my target is 2.0580. If that happens, I might consider another trade to the upside, with possible entry of 2.0640 or so. Problem id, due to the length of time it takes to get there, logical thing to do would be to use 4H charts as a benchmark. In that event, outlook and holding pattern would change and I’m not sure I want to go through with it. We’ll see…..
In other developments, dollar has finally shown some teeth, let’s see it last longer. So far smokinnnn!
July 21st, 2008 at 10:59 am
Not as planned.in: General
Here are the latest developments in my GBP-AUD trade. My plan was to buy on a break to the upside. Right from the start this pair dropped like a rock.I entered long position at 2.0480 only to see it fall even more, before reversing. Take a look.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-aud-2.jpg
At last, the price rebounded somewhat. I’m looking for about 100 pips gain here, 2.0580. If that happens, I will decide whether to open next long position or look elsewhere. As you can see I had to do a little bit of adjusting to market changes. Unfortunately, it is us who have to adjust our views to market behavior, not the other way around. Should the price drop to 2.0380, I’ll be out of this pair.
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July 20th, 2008 at 6:58 am
Longer term trade.in: General, Trades
Every now and then I will place my view for a longer time trade, when I find something that could be qualified as a high probability trade. Here is on of these possibilities, GBP-JPY. This pair always moves a lot on daily basis, in term of pips. Yet if were to look at a daily chart, we can see largely sideways price movement over last few weeks. Price has stalled around 214.00 on many occasions before and is once again approaching this level
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-jpy.jpgMy order calls for a buy at 214.10 and I’d like to see it go to 220.00. Ultimately, I think “the beast” is going to move even higher, but for that I’d have to use weekly charts and extend the time horizon. For now, 220.00 is the goal. This is relatively large time scale (daily charts), so don’t expect this trade to work out over night. Something like 2 weeks should be our “estimated” holding time.A cautionary note- there is potential for a large draw-down here, so I’m using very small leverage for trades like this, or no leverage at all. In other words, 1 to 1 ratio. I will review this trade in a few days.
Now, something to start the week with. For that I want to buy another one of GBP crosses. At first, I took a look at GBP-CAD, but I don’t want to appear as if being hung up on Canadian dollar, so I decided to go for GBP-AUD.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/gbp-aud.jpg
My plan here is to buy on a breakout above 2.0645, looking for a 120 pips gain, or a decision of 2.0765. If the price retraces before reaching the buy level, I would like to buy it at around 2.0525-2.0500.
On other note, I expect USD pairs to be rather volatile, reacting strongly to every little news.
Let’s have a great trading week!
July 18th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Friday.in: General, Trades
End of the week and end of trading, for a couple of days. My last trade i posted on these pages was AUD-CAD short at 0.9770. Well, this trade went nowhere for me. At first it gained a few pips, then retreated. Finally , there was this large spike against me, to the upside.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/aud-cad3.jpg
I closed at the end of that bar, at 0.9775 for a loss of few pips. And no, I didn’t get stopped out. These kind of trades, the ones I actually sit and watch, I use mental stops. Besides, my leverage is small per each trade. I don’t know what caused that spike, but most likely it was some glitch, although I saw it on 3 different trading platforms, so who knows?
For now I’m done with AUD-CAD. I’ll do my analysis before market opens on Sunday and decide then if i want to reenter, but probably not. Overall it was a decent week. I’m ahead of the game.
It’s time to shut the computer off and take a break.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:10 am
More CAD.in: General, Trades
A lot of volatility today. Number of crosses have shown large moves, and, as of this writing, it isn’t over yet. NZD, for one is getting hammered, while CAD is showing strength. Speaking of which… I’m trying a trade in Canadian Dollar again, only on the loon side this time.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/aud-cad2.jpg
I just went short AUD-CAD at 0.9770. As of this writing, I’m looking at an objective of 0.9650. If the price goes my way, There might be a support around 0.9725-0.9730. Depending on how it all unfolds, I might cover at the support and try to reenter just under it, 0.9715 or so. Ideally, I want to be out of this trade before the weekend.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:50 am
It didn’t happen.in: General, Trades
So here we have it. No trade in CAD-JPY. I was watching this cross break under my buy level of 104.10, but had a lot of misgivings. In earlier post I mentioned CAD looked a little too strong. Well, it still is, just look at EUR-CAD, or GBP-CAD. It was not the best JPY pair to trade, so I let it be.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/cad-jpy4.jpg
I got 2 good trades here and my interest her is still not over. Current level is around 104.60-70. Over next day I’ll be looking for a reversal on 15M and 30M charts. There is a good chance for another leg down. Only now the target would be 103.75, at which point farther action will be evaluated.
Tomorrow I will post the second part of “Why trade Forex?” article, and will take a look at some other possible trades.
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July 15th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Today’s roundup.in: General, Trades
I have been unwinding the trades I presented here, EUR-GBP first.
If you recall from earlier post I planned my entry for 0.7970 with a target of 0.7935.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/eur-gbp-2.jpg
Price went down to 0.7935 on a BID on this platform, and rebounded. I just hate when this happen. It’s maddening, but it is also a part of trading and if you place enough trades, it is going to happen. I decided to hold on and few hours later I was out at objective with 35 pips. This are high value pips, too. Currently 15.88 per pip on standard lot. Good trade.
Now CAD-JPY. I already closed one trade (see previous post) and was carrying the second one. Incidentally, this trade had been initiated first. Target for transaction was 104.50.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/cad-jpy3.jpg
My strategy here was a little more complex. I had planned to take some profits at 104.50 and open position at 104.30-35. As you see I closed initial trade, but for now I withheld . Why? Well, CAD has been strong against other currencies. This move has been on the strength of JPY. I really,really want to see so CAD weakness, before I commit myself. I have tentatively scheduled a sell at 104.10, with target of 103.00. The way things are, I might have to use higher magnitude chart, 4H, so a potential draw-down would be higher also. That’s why I want to see weakness in CAD. I’m going to watch for a while and then decide.
July 14th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Quick update.in: General, Trades
Things got a little busy here. I’m talking about the CAD-JPY trade.
I entered into trade after open at 105.39. Markets moved against me and a little later my second trade order at 105.90 was initiated.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/cad-jpy2.jpg
Couple of hours ago I closed my second entry at 105.32 or 58 pips gain.
I’m looking for continuation to the downside. My first position is still opened.
July 13th, 2008 at 7:27 am
Start of the week.in: General, Trades
After strong moves on Friday, I expect some continuation on Sunday open. Not for very long, though. Reversal should start happening before Europe opens for business. Here is one of the reversals I’m looking for.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/eur-gbp.jpg
EUR-GBP looks a little overdone for me. I’m setting up a short trade here. Currently I want to sell at 0.7970 with a target of 0.7935. If the market keeps moving up, this order will need some adjustment. My plan is move the order just onder any new latest low. Objectives will remain comparable, between 30-40 pips.
Another cross I keep an I on is CAD-JPY. In days and weeks to come I think there is going to be a lot of weakness in CAD. For next couple of days CAD-JPY presents multiple opportunities.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/cad-jpy.jpg
I highlighted few potential sell zones. Personally, I’ll be selling at the open at 105.30-40, small position to be sure. If the market moves up, I’ll add at 105.90-106. That is a great area, with very small risk. Should the market go down, I want to take some profits at 104.50, and reestablish position if there is a break under 104.35. This chart should keep me busy for a couple of days.
I’m bracing myself for a busy week, with a lot large moves. I won’t be able to update this blog more than once a day, probably in the evening my
July 11th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Before the weekend.in: General, Trades
Oil and dollar are on everybody’s minds right now, so I will omit them. There is enough commentators around, analysing those to markets. All that reminds me of”beating a dead horse”, since, what everybody does, is repeating what somebody else said before. At the same time, there is life elsewhere. All of a sudden Yen showed some movement. Most importantly for me, the trade I posted yesterday came to a speedy and satisfactory conclusion.
http://fxmadness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/cad-chf-close.jpg
I was planning a sell of CAD-CHF at 1.0150. I was only looking for quick 50 pips. Once the move started, target was reached very fast. There maybe another high probability trade in this pair setting up on 4H charts, but I’ll try to point it out on Sunday if I don’t find anything on shorter time scale.
I’m not planning to post anything tomorrow, or Saturday. Depending on how this project develops, I might designate Saturdays my official “off” day.
About a year ago I wrote and published an article titled “Why trade Forex?”. It was well received and found its way into numerous ezines. Because of its length, it comes in 2 parts. The reason I bringing it up is that I plan to post this article here, in this blog. Part One will be included on Sunday and part Two in a few days.
Have a great weekend!
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