Posted on January 19, 2009 at 13:01 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Maybe not the best shape in this daily figure, however, there it is: the pair has an inverted head and shoulder with a slightly bullish inclination that favour the upside continuation if the neck zone is broken; the key zone to watch these days is around 1.1280 also a tough congestion zone and if you take a look alsothe 50% of the Fibonacci weekly rally 1.2208/1.0370. Despite the hard time the pair is having to break above the neck, I expect a continuation at least to the 1.1530 zone once that happens, the 61.8% of the mentioned rally. If the pair gives up the 1.1080, previous vision will be denied and the bearish movement could gain speed quickly.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/chf2-300x225.gif
Todday supports will be at 1.1185, followed by 1.1152, 1.1120 and finally the mentioned 1.1080 zone. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.1242, 1.1287 and 1.1320.
Tags: Usd/Chf
News from Europe
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 12:30 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Reading news is part of my daily routine, and despite things are changed, meaning market does not react to news as it used a year ago, that’s not a reason to ignore macroeconomic conditions around the world. In a recent statement, The European Commission recon today that the situation is deteriorating rapidly, expecting deficit to widen, unemployment to raise to 9.3% from actual 7.2% and forecasting GDP around -1.8% for this year, while expecting a recovery for 2010. On the other hand, European Central Bank governing council member Geroge Provopoulos told in an interview today that, while there is still some room for for maneuver on interest rates, the scope for cuts is limited, suggesting also that chances of cutting as far as 1% or even lower are limited, as rates has already been cut “dramatically” he add.
So what could happen to the hegemonic currency? from here, I cannot see any important recovery there in the short term. I rather see the currency consolidating around 1.3000 before falling again, and actually technical perspective is supporting that view in the longer term.
What do you think?
Tags: Euro news
Gbp/Usd short term perspective
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 11:22 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Kind of contradiction, 4 hours charts remain pushing lower while indicators in daily ones are pointing to the upside. Quoting @ 1.4650,I see the pair regaining bearish strength under 1.4620 first support for today, followed by 1.4580, 1.4533 and finally 1.4500 zone. If the pair manages to recover the 1.4720 zone, chances to the downside seem limited, and the pair will attempt to continue first to 1.4765, 1.4810 and finally, 1.4850 zone.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/gbp6-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 10:51 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Euro/Usd is quoting around 1.3270, and despite starting above the daily descendant trend line we were seeing last Friday, the pair has managed to come back both under that, and under the short term ascendant one. 1.3245 will be our first support for today, followed by the zone @ 1.3200/10, 1.3180 and finally 1.3125. Above 1.3310, next resistances will be at 1.3336 and 1.3385.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/euro2-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 10:19 in Sentiment by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Slightly Bearish
Gbp/Usd: Bearish
Usd/Chf: Slightly Bullish
Usd/Jpy: Bearish
Tags: Majors trend
Starting the day
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 10:11 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you are fine. Despite the opening gaps against greenback,dollar managed to rose during Asian session, closing the gaps and even moving ahead, as positive sentiment improves ahead of the U.S. measures to deal with the crisis, to be inaugurated by the new elected president this week. while Europeans are set to continue falling, Japanese yen remains under bullish pressure, and by this time of the year, hard will be to see it falling against greenback, as Japanese exporters are selling greenback for account settlements. From the fundamental perspective, we have a Bank Holiday in the U.S. today, and a Trichet speech in some minutes, a great day to trade technically. I will be back in a while, have a great day!.
Usd/Jpy intraday perspective
Posted on January 16, 2009 at 13:16 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Above 90.00 the pair is recovering some ground to the upside, since Asian session, still not looking strong enough to continue in that direction: above the 90,80 zones we have the 91.10 resistance that should be broken to consider further recoveries in that direction, first to 91.40 and finally to 91.60 zone. From actual prices, 90.20 will be the first support to consider, and the 90.00 level that should hold; a break under, will turn the pair bearish with next supports at 89,50 zone and finally 89.10/20.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/yen5-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on January 16, 2009 at 12:47 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Back from webinar! always busy days Fridays for me, yet great days! Euro is running up, already reached the 1.3320 zone, yet correcting to the downside at the moment. We have a small ascendant channel in play, but stronger see the long descendant trend line coming from 1.4359. slightly bullish, resistances form actual price will be at 1,3317 today’s maximum followed by 1.3336, and the 1.3360 zone. A clear break above it, could set the pair for a bullish run next week. Regarding supports, under 1.3250 will be the first to consider, followed by 1.3220, where we foundright now, the base of the small channel; if cleared, pair will regain bearish direction, with next supports at 1.3186, 1.3141 and finally the zone @ 1.3100/10.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eur3-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Live Webinar
Posted on January 16, 2009 at 10:36 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
I will be holding a live webinar in about 30 minutes, so I will be really glad to see you all there! Here is the link to attend:
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=9fc98532-e8c5-4877-8823-b60c1f911b6d
It will be special for beginners, as this year i intent to made a series of technical trading, starting from the basis, and developing all along the year, different trading strategies.
See you there!
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on January 16, 2009 at 10:09 in Sentiment by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Neutral
Gbp/Usd: Bullish
Usd/Chf: Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Usd/Jpy: Bullish
Tags: Majors trend
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Tags: ecb, EuroGbp/Usd for today
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 12:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Quoting @ 1.4600 the pair seems slightly bullish for me today, although in 4 hours charts we could see a triangle underway, understood as a probable continuation figure. So the key zones to consider for further continuations will be both lines, actually at 1.4710 and 1.4530. The Ecb live coverage is beginning right now, and I’m late! sorry really for not posting more details, I have to be there! Hope you can be too.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/gbp5-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 11:51 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Moving in a tight range the pair is still bearish in bigger charts, yet quite neutral in 4 hours charts. I can see a small ascendant trend line in this time frame, that could be our first support zone for today, and the point to watch to the downside, @ 1.3140, yet 1.3090, yesterday’s minimum and next support will be the key point to consider for a downside continuation, first to 1.3030, and then 1.3000 a mayor key support. Regarding resistances above 1,3190 the pair could reach the 1.3236 zone, and then 1.3260 that we could considerour key point to the upside today. Above it, next resistances will be at 1.3300, 1.3340 and finally 1.3410/20 the zone of the daily descendant trend line.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/euro1-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Majors’s Sentiment for today
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 10:34 in Sentiment by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Bearish
Gbp/Usd: Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Usd/Chf: Neutral toSlightly Bullish
Usd/Jpy: Bearish
Tags: daily trend
Starting the day
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 10:32 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you are fine. Little change on market during the Asian session, as currencies turn to “on hold” mode, ready to interpret Mr. Jean Claude Trichet, ECB´s president words. The expected 0.50 basis point is largely priced in, so the speech has the higher chances of being the market mover today. I was thinking about how market growths and mutates along time: do you remember rates decisions before the crisis? A whole different world back then! One of the things we have to learn about forex trading, is that market is like bamboo: strong but very flexible. That’s one of the ultimates secrets of trading: a system that works today, doesn’t work tomorrow. Why? well the answer will be that if we are as flexible as market, and we are able to detect on time changes, we are no doubts in the good path!. Anyway, enough philosophy for one morning! Here is the link to today’s calendar ( life continues after the ECB, we also have some important news in the U.S. today), you can check it while I begin with today’s technical perspective:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Have a great day!
Tags: Majors
Eur/Usd 15 minutes charts
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 14:51 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Not the most reliable time frame, yet good enough for short term trade: Eur/Usd is forming a pretty clear continuation triangle in 15 minutes charts (American stocks are falling hard after Retail Sales and that is holding more dollar strength in here) but the downside remainsreally vulnerable. Watch for a candle opening under it, and consider supports zone mentioned in previous post, at 1.3080 and 1.3020.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eu15-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
America Retail Sales
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 14:27 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Retail sales fell for the sixth straight month in December, the longest consecutive stretch of monthly declines in the measure in at least four decades. But import prices fell less than expected, with a sharp drop in of course, the price of oil and industrial supplies. This import price report is giving some favorable inflation data to the U.S., and poor Euro is the one suffering the most at the moment, testing and pushing the 1.3100 zone. Next supports from here, will be at 1.3080, and more likely, the zone @ 1.3020.
Tags: News, Retail Sales
Eur/Gbp daily charts
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 13:44 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
I was following the longer term perspective in the pair, so I will share with you this daily chart: December rally has already corrected the61.8% (still doubt of Fibonacci? We really need to believe in it, as at this point I consider it more a “faith” than anything else: how could it be, a number present in human body shape, and flowers petals and rabbits reproduction? amazing really, I should do a larger post about our Fibo friend), and the pair is tending to the upside again. As long as the 0.9000 zone holds, probable target to the upside will be @ 0.9200 the 38.2% of the rally. above it, the pair will regain the bullish momentum and is likely a retest of the highs in 0.9800. On the otherhand, if the pair gives up the 61.8% @ 0.8840, we will a see pretty bearish rally from there. Finally monthly charts remain way over bough, but with this intra month correction, we need to see what February could bring. In weekly and daily charts, the O/B has been cleared, and the pair still has room to the upside.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eg-300x225.gif
Tags: Eur/Gbp
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Tags: Add new tag, Curses, EducationUsd/Jpy in the short term
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 12:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The strong rebound in the 90.00 level, keeps the pair bearish at the moment, and addressing to 89.20 zone, first support from actual 89.45 zone; then we have the 88.80, yesterday’s minimum that if broken, could trigger more bearish momentum to 88.20 zone, followed by 87.60 and finally 87.13 the year minimum. Resistances from here will be at 89.60, and 90.00. A clear break above it is needed to see some bullish strength in here.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/yen4-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for the next hours
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 11:32 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/Usd also corrected during Asian session almost the 38.2% of the last days downleg, and at the moment remains also bearish, although indicators are moving to flat, with no clear strength signals either way. Actual 4 hours candle open to the downside, yet the pair remains stuck to the 1.3250 zone. Today’s supports will be at 1.3230, followed by 1.3188, 1.3140 zone and finally 1.3100. Regarding resistances, above 1.3260 the pair could retest the 1.3300, followed by 1.3336, the 1.3380 zone, and finally 1.3430.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eur2-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 11:04 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair reached yesterday 1.4470 zone before starting an upside correction, tha almost completed the 38.2% retracement of the last down leg in 4 hours charts. This kind of behavior usually is understood as a small rest o same profit taking in the middle of the trend. Although indicators are a bit exhausted to the downside, daily charts remain pretty bearish, and this overnight movement relief the oversold state the pair has. From actual price, 1.4536 will be the first support to consider, followed by 1.4500 zone, and yesterday’s minimum 1.4470. Under this last, consider like yesterday 1.4450, the zone @ 1.4406, and finally the year minimum, at 1.4356. On the other hand resistances will be at 1.4600/10, the zone @ 1.4660, 1.4710 and finally the zone @ 1.4780.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/gbp4-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 10:04 in Sentiment by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Bearish
Gbp/Usd: Bearish
Usd/Chf:Slightly Bullish
Usd/Jpy: Bearish
Starting the day
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 10:02 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello and welcome back! After the sharp drops seen in majors, some profit taking gave interesting corrections during the Asian session, yet dollar potential remains intact, particularly against Euro, and tomorrow’s expected rate cut. We will see in detail in a few minutes how European majors respect Fibonacci retracements signaling that upside moves are just corrections for now. Asian stocks barely close positive, and Europeans at the moment remain in red, meaning nobody is daring to risk that much today, as all eyes are, again on ECB’s decision (could we tomorrow see some “sell the rumour, buy the news”? probably!). On his own, Japanese Yen also remains quite strong, pretty well contained under the 90.00 level where yen buyers are placing their bets. We have some fundamentals you can check following next link, while I begin with charts:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Have a great day!
Tags: Majors news
U.S. Trade Balance
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 13:36 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The deficit contracted to $-40.4 Billions, the most since 1996, yet reading in between lines, we have that exports reduce a 5.8% yet imports reduce a 12%. The line number shrinks not because they are better, but because we have less imports, that means there is a contraction in consumption. Anyway in this first spike, the market is taking it as dollar positive. Let’ see what happens in the next 15 30 minutes.
Tags: dollar, Trade Balance
Usd/Jpy holding
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 13:03 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Despite the very bearish perspective we have here, the downside remains contained at the moment by the very close 88.80 zone: a break under will take us very close to the 88.20 zone, followed by 87.60 and finally 87.13 the minimum accomplished this year. Regarding resistances we need the pair above 89.38 to see some bullish upside movement to 89.68 a 4 hours descendant trend line. Above it, the pair could regain the 90.00 zone and form there, 90.50.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/yen3-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 12:41 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Slipping down since the beginning of the week, the pair is close to a daily ascendant trend line, @ 1.4540 and ready to break under, although we could see some quick up side rebound there before the break. Anyway under the line, next supports will be at 1.4500 zone, followed by 1.4450, the zone @ 1.4406, and finally the year minimum, at 1.4356. Regarding resistances from actual zone, we have 1.4621, pullback to the broken line, followed by 1.4686, 1.4735, 1.4790 and finally 1.4826.
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd intraday and longer term
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 11:20 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Longer term perspective remains as last post made about it: remember my weekly Fibo? And that I told you that under the 38.2% (around 1.3740) the pair was still bearish?, well take a look at what happened today: the pair has rebounded in the 23.6 % zone, next Fibonacci level. And that will be hour key break point to the downside this week: if the pair confirms with a daily candle opening under it, the bearish trend will be on play with no doubts here. The upside will remain contained by the 38.2% mentioned.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eurw-300x225.gif
Turning to 4 hours, charts, indicators are a bit exhausted to the downside, and we could see some upside correction this next couple of hours, with resistances at 1.3336, 1.3380 zone, 1.3430 and finally 1.3476. Under 1.3280, the pair will try to reach today’s minimum, the zone @ 1.3225, and then 1.3190. Under this last, the downside seems quite vulnerable, and we could see some bearish momentum triggered from there.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eur4-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 12:41 in Short-Term Analysis, Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The key 90.00 zone has given away at the moment, and the pair tested next support, at 89.60. Tending bearish, under today’s minimum the pair has a quite clear way down, with next supports at 88.90, and 88.20. Resistances form actual zone will be at 90.00, followed by the zone @ 90.30, a 4 hours descendant trend line. Above it the pair could turn bullish for the rest of the day, with next target zone @ 90.70.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/yen2-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 11:55 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Here is the Gbp/Usd chart with the 4 hours trend line I was seeing last Friday: see the pair begin the week under it, (even left a gap) and fight a couple of candles with the flat 200 EMA before breaking to the downside. The pair remains bullish although not with enough strength: indicators are turning to flat or even bouncing up, so we could see some upside correction here, with the 1.5000 zone as the first resistance to consider, followed by 1.5035/45 zone, and from there 1.5090/5110. A break above could take the pair to 1.5160 zone, where the gap will be filled. Regarding supports, under 1.4929 the pair will have 1.4908, today’s minimum and under it 1.4862 and finally 1.4810 zone.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/gbp3-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd in the short term
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 11:22 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
As seen last Friday, the pair remains pretty bearish in 4 hours and daily charts, and remains pushing lower: quoting right now just below 1.3400, 1.3358 will be the first support to consider, followed by 1.3310/25 zone, see today minimum and previous week one around there: if the pair manages to break down 1.3250 will be our target zone for today. Regarding resistances, above 1.3436 we have the 1.3470 zone, followed by 1.3520 and finally 1.3560.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eu-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 10:02 in Sentiment by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Bearish
Gbp/Usd: Bearish
Usd/Chf: Bullish
Usd/Jpy: Neutral to Bearish
Tags: Majors trend
Starting the day
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 10:01 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you had a great weekend. I do, yet wish last a bit longer. Anyway, back to work! European currencies begin the week losing ground against dollar, as stock dropped in Asian trading while Japanese yen is trapped in a very small range, pushing to move higher, still unable to break the 90.00. I’m reading some news and find a lot of risk aversioncomments, yet if you se last Friday post, you will see how reliable is technical analysis: currencies move as I was expecting, and I will come back to that pair by pair during the morning. Today we have an empty calendar in Europe and the U.S. so it would be a great day for technical trading.
A final note: wehave some opening gaps, in Gbp, Japanese Yen and a tiny one in Euro that where not covered yet. Keep then in mind.
Be back in a few minutes Have a great trading day!
4hours charts, 4 key zones
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 16:53 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
I will post a daily conclusion here today, and explain you why; looking at 4 hours charts, I find that majors are all braking trough or attemping to pass trough key zones. The day has not finished and things could reverse, but here is what I see in two lines:
Eur/Dollar bounce off again of the 1.3740 zone (remember previous post the 38.2% monthly Fibo?) and open actual candle under the 200 EMA: is quite flat by the way but well tending lower there.
Usd/Chf is also fighting a strong Fibo level @ 1.1090, so a daily close above it could bring more upsides for next week.
Usd/Jpy has break the 91.00 level, and seems ready to attack the key 90.00 zone, that if vulnerate will bring more bearish to the pair.
Finally Gbp/Usd, has broken to the downside with actual candle an ascendant trend line @ 1.5200 that is trying to regain right now. Bullish strength remains high here, let’s see if the pair manages to close the day under or above it.
This is how the week is pointing to end, yet we still have some hours ahead although market has settle down finally, after the payrolls. The reading was no good for me, (2008 comes to be the worst employment years since 1945) but betterthan what everyone was expecting: don’t surprise if we have a dollar fall next Monday. By the way, I believe is a Japan holiday, meaning market activity will began directly in Europe.
Finally I’m always told that a blog is a personal diary, so here you have the reason why I’m closing my day earlier today:
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/p9120147-225x300.jpgCamila, the violet witch, is about to be 4 years old, and Virginia, the romantic bride, is just 6. And yes! they are exactly as their faces suggest! haha
They are both learning to read charts and candles, although they are hardly reading and writing. Both are learning also english, and they are doing fine, and as me, love numbers and are left handed. Ok well, they are waiting! See you on Monday. Have a great weekend!
U.S. Employment Numbers
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 13:32 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The new came outworstthan expected, with the following readings
Non-Farm Employment Change Actual - 524 (Expected -520K Previous -533K)
Unemployment Rate Actual 7.2%(Expected 7.0% Previous 6.7%)
Previous month revision was also negative to -584K
Yet no definitions in market. Wait for two 15 minutes candles!
Tags: dollar, Payroll
Eur/Usd supports and resistances
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 13:24 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
From actual price, levels to watch are as follows
Supports 1.3630, 1.3600, 1.3530, 1.3480 and finally 1.3410
Resistances 1.3750 1.3800, 1.3840, 1.3910 1.3955 and finally 1.4000
Tags: eurusd
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Tags: Employment, Payroll
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 12:37 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has finally managed to break under the 91.00 key level, and tends to the downside in 4 hours charts, after breaking an ascendant daily trend line. From actual price, supports will be at 90.55, 90.00 and if the key 90.00 is broken well, downside momentum will probably gain speed with next supports @ 89,60 and finally 89.00. Resistances from here will be at 91.00, 91.33, 91.60 and then 92.10.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/jpy-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd pointing up
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 12:17 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Gbp/Usd remains bullish in 4 hours charts, and is pushing trough a daily descendant trend line, that already tested but could not break yesterday, right now around 1.5315. Not easy ro predict what payrolls will bring but no doubts the pair is tending higher. Resistances above the line will be at 1.5372, 1.5446, 1.5510, and finally the zone @ 1.5560. Supports will be at 1.5280, 1.5210, 15160 and finally the zone @ 1.5100.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/gbp2-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Non Farm Payrolls
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 11:12 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
During all 2008, America has been losing jobs: today we have past December publication, and that will bring the number close to 2 million people, remaining the biggest concern of the American economy. With theADP survey (published a few days ago) getting more accurate month after month, today we are ” expecting” a nearly 650K lost, despite the -520K fore casted by economist, and a raise in unemployment rate to a 7 % from a previous 6.7%. So what could happen today? Well my husband could continuously repeat that I’m a witch, but the true is I don’t have a crystal ball to see the future. I just can speculate the different scenarios we could face in a couple of hours. First of all, we have bunch of reports during the month, that give some advance information for payrolls: the weekly unemployment claims, the employment component of Manufacturing and Service ISM the ADP survey, and the consumer confidence to name the most important ones; reviewing them, the balance is still pulling lower, although in the past, usually after a sharp fall like the one seen in November, employments shown a quite interesting improvement in the next month. To make this just a post, and not a book, let’s say we have three numbers to watch today in this order: first today’s number itself (expected in -520K) and unemployment rate (expected on 7.0%) then previous month revision (actually at -533K). I believe that the first two weight the same so, they must be both better or worst than expected, to see straight moves in majors. If those number came close to expectations, then the revision will be the number to consider.
Remember two things: give market 15 - 30 minutes after the publication to take a decision. Last months Payroll day, most majors ended right where they started or very close, and reaction was “delayed”till next Monday.
Tags: Non Farm Payrolls
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 10:07 in Sentiment by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Bullish
Gbp/Usd: Bullish
Usd/Chf: Bearish
Usd/Jpy: Bearish
Tags: Majors daily trend, Majors sentiment
Starting the day
Posted on January 9, 2009 at 9:52 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine!. Last day of this first week of the year filled with fundamentals and rumours, fears, and a lot of uncertain about what could happen; last rumour I heard, was Trichet talking about deflation in Europe, what he actually deny in an interview published early today. Yet he also added that a global coordination action is needed to solve global financial issues. As Europe rates remain high, most market players are speculating on at least a 50 basic points cut next week, although at the time, it seems very far away: we have Non Farm Payrolls in the U.S. today, (I will made a special post about that after this one) and usually market remains in a hold and wait position till the report is released. So, first, let’s take care about it, and next week about rates. I could be a technical trader, but Ibelieve both reports are the only ones that could seriously affect a longer term trend. By the way, production in England has printed very awful readings a few minutes ago, and Gpb is loosing some ground ant the moment. Anyway, I will try to hurry up a bit today, and post more analysis before the new, so, you can start by checking today’s calendar, while I check charts http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Have a great day!
Tags: Market resume
BoE Live Coverage
Posted on January 8, 2009 at 15:12 in Live Webinars by adminNo Comments »
Levels to watch on GBP
Posted on January 8, 2009 at 11:43 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Quick post before starting with the BoE realise: taking a look at monthy chart, we have almost a 6000 pips straigt fall, and the pair correct just 800. Seems quite loghical to see Gbp rise a bit from here. for my perspective a 50 points cut could be already priced in, and provoque little reaction in market, particullary ahgainst dollar. A more wide cut, will certainly imply a fall, and let’s remember it was not discarded last meeting, but leave aside to avoid an excessive Gbp fall across the board. the points to watch rignht now wil be 1.4980 and 1.5115 to in the short term trigger some rallies. See you in the live coverage!
Eur/Usd charts
Posted on January 8, 2009 at 10:56 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
If you draw a Fibonacci retracement in monthly charts, from the maximum at 1.6038 to 1.2330, there are some interesting things we can notice: the huge spike to 1.4700 zone represents a 61.8% correction of that monthly rally, and by this time, the pair remains contained under the 38.2% @ 1.3740, exactly yesterday’s maximum zone, where the pair come back quickly enough to the downside. Longer term view remains bearish, as long as this week closes under that level (Let’s see what Non Farm Payrolls have to say tomorrow), and will be confirmed once the pair breaks under 1.3300.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eu1-300x225.gif
Turning to smaller charts, in fact 4 hours, the pair has lost the bullish momentum in indicators, and we have a clear descendant 20 SMA and a flat 200 EMA that again is acting as a quite interesting support @ 1.3530, already tested once today. It the zone is broken, we could see the pair moving downside to next supports, at 1.3485 zone, followed by a more interesting one at 1.3430 andfinally the zone @ 1.3390/3400. First resistance today will be at 1.3630 zone, followed by 1.3660/70,and with a light stop @ 1.3700 after testing again yesterday’s high zone. A break above, will re trigger the bullish momentum, with next target at the 1.3800 zone.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eu2-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
BoE decision live coverage
Posted on January 8, 2009 at 10:31 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
I will be covering live, the BoE rate decision at Fxstreet.com home page, starting in about one hour. I invite you all to be there, and watch the movements together.
Thanks!
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Tags: News, postUsd/Jpy
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 13:42 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is going downside, and will confirm a continuation under 92.40 zone, 50% of the last daily upleg. Once that support is cleared, next ones will come at 92.10, and 91.80, where we could see some quick upside rebounds. If that last value is cleared, the pair will turn bearish for the rest of the week, and will try to reach the 91.00 zone. From actual price, resistances will be at 92.80/90, followed by 93.20 and then 93.55.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/yen1-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd for the next hours
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 12:11 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains bullish and see this flag the pair is forming in 4 hours charts: that’s usually a continuation figure, so follow next candle open: if the pair manages to open above it, 1.4970 or so, the pair could easily continue to the upside and despite the flag theory says the movement could repeat the pole, (of around 240 pips) generally we could see that in fact pairs reach @ the 70% of the proposed number of pips. Anyway the pair must break first the 1.5000 zone, and above it 1.5030 to confirm better and upside continuation, with next resistances at 1.5065 zone and finally 1.5115. Regarding supports, under 1.4960 the pair could move first to 1.4910 zone, followed by 1.4870, the zone @ 1.4830 and finally 1.4795 projection of the flag floor.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/gbp1-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 11:44 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Fresh day, fresh charts! The pair break under the channel base yesterday was reversed, so for me the channel is no longer valid. However the descendant trend line seems to be good enough to be consider our first resistance for today, between 1.3660/70 zone. Above it, the pair will regain the 1.3700 zone, and then 1.3735 will be next resistance to consider. A break above this last, can trigger some upside momentum, sending the pair close to 1.3800. take a look at indicators, not giving clear signals yet turning to the upside: Rsi shows the pair has lost the oversold condition, so, if the line holds, and the pair moves under 1.3610 first support for today, we could see the pair continuingto the downside, with next supports at 1.3560, the zone @ 1.3520, and finally 1.3475.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eur1-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 9:40 in Sentiment, Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Slighhtly Bullish
Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish
Usd/Chf: Bearish
Usd/Jpy: Neutral
Starting the day
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 9:38 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody and welcome! No more to add about what happened yesterday, as you can read last hours post. Dollar is loosing ground yet German Unemployment rose 18 K over the month bringing the jobless rate to 7.6%, seems the economic slowdown has started to reach the labor market there. Today we only have to pay attention to the ADP in the U.S. a private survey ahead of this Friday Non Farm Payrolls, although we have other minor reports, you can check following this link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be back in a while starting with today technicals. Have a great day!
FOMC Minutes: deflation and unemployment
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 19:17 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
According to the FOMC Minutes, released a few minutes ago, the Fed staffprojected GDP would decline this year and”rise at a pace slightly above the rate of potential growth in 2010.” Yet what seems more important, they expect the unemployment rate to rise “significantly” into 2010, to a rate even higher than it projected in late October, and inflation at too low levels, and persisting for a time. No matter what, this does not seem very good for greenback at the moment, with Euro above 1.3500 and all majors pushing higher against dollar. Yet we are almost at the end of the American session, so take notice we could see more interesting reactions later on in the Asian session and even tomorrow at the beginning of European one. Uncertain times are far from over in the world economy, and despite whatever you are seeing right now, remember the global recession we were talking about a month ago has certainly don’t changed. Economies don’t heal in months, but more likely in years: no time for long time bets yet.
Tags: FOMC, News
Gbp/Usd update
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 18:05 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair finally break to the upside and is close to test the tough congestion zone the pair has @ 1.5000. Above it we have 1.5060 as probable target. However this quick momentum could show some short term corrections before a continuation, yet as long as the pair remains above 1.4870 zone, the bullish continuation has mire chances.
Tags: gbpusd
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Posted on January 6, 2009 at 13:04 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Not the clearer pair for me at this time, to be honest. I see the pair slightly bullish, as long as the 20 SMA (red in the charts) holds the downside price. This pair usually respects pretty well that simple MA, and you can see it curved to the upside, so actual zone, @ 1.4560/70 will be the first support to consider in the short term, followed by the ascendant trend line you can see in this chart, @ 1.4515. A break under, will turn the pair bearish for the rest of the day, with next supports at 1.4486, 1.4448 and finally the zone @ 1.4410. Above 1.4490 the pair could regain thebullish momentum first to 1.4550, the zone @ 1.4580and then to 1.4630.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/gbp-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Usd/Chf update
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 12:00 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Following yesterday’s analysis, the pair has started above the 38.2% mentioned, and is tending to the 1.1280, first tough resistance from actual price, above which, 1.1320 will be the next zone to consider in intraday trading, followed by 1.1370. Due to the overbought state of the pair, we couldsee some bearish corrections, with supports at 1.1195, 1.1126 and finally the zone @ 1.1070.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/chf1-300x181.gif
Tags: Usd/Chf
Eur/Usd preparing to continue down
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 10:57 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
If you wonder how much do technicals work, see how the 200 EMA was respected yesterday by the pair, till finally get broken in the last 4 hours candle (as I always said, no support or resistance, not matter if static or dynamic, will hold for ever) and also the base of the channel is being vulnerate right now (we need a new candle opening under to confirmate the break down) so we could consider 1.3352 to be first support for today, followed by the zone @ 1.3305, and finally 1.3256. Also see the pair is under the 61.8% of the last upleg, so chances to the downside remain strong at the moment. Regarding resistances, above 1.3430 the pair could recover some ground targeting the 1.3500 zone as a first key level.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/euro-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 10:27 in Sentiment by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Bearish
Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish
Usd/Chf: Bullish
Usd/Jpy: Bullish
Tags: Majors sentiment
Starting the day
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 9:46 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine! Optimism is still shinning above the dollar that continues posting gains against most rivals, particularly against Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc; seems investors are convinced that BarackObama plan to pull the U.S. out of recession will work. Besides, huge moves of December where meant to correct from a technical perspective, and here we are: some key levels have been attacked, others remain intact. Let’s see if today we could see more of that levels that could define where majors could be heading. Gbp however, is not following the crowd and remains slightly bullish at the moment:after declines of more than a 20% against major rivals during 2008 and the aggressiveinterest rate cuts, the U.K. economy looks in better shape to recover, but won’t be easy to see just Gbp moving against the tie; let’s see what will happen there. Today we have quite important fundamentals in the U.S. related to production and housing sector, none of which is expected positive: will the trend win the battle again? While you check today’s calendar I will start preparing major’s perspective for today, here is the link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Have a great day!
Usd/Chf in the longer term: turn around?
Posted on January 5, 2009 at 15:13 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Chf seems quite vulnerable at the time: despite testing the1.0380 zone, the pair was unable to confirm under the weekly ascendant trend line, and is starting a new up leg. Today the upside run has been halted by the 38.2% of the last fall, as you can see in the following chart. The pair must break above the 1.1090/1.1120 zone, to continue in this direction: most important resistances from there will be at 1.1200, 1.1280 the zone around 1.1370, 1.1425 and finally 1.1520, 61.8% of the mentioned rally. On the other hand, under the 1.0900 zone the bullish vision will be denied and the Swiss could recover strength, targeting 1.0810, 1.0736, 1.0615 and then 1,0550.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/chf-300x181.gif
Tags: Usd/Chf
Usd/Jpy close to key level
Posted on January 5, 2009 at 12:33 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Japanese yen has fall pretty well also, taking this pair close to the key level 93.80. Pushing higher, 4 hours charts are pointing to that zone, followed by a more strong level at 94.25. Above that zone I see the pair confirming a bullish continuation with next resistance at 94.80 zone. Regarding supports, 93.10 will be the first zone to consider, followed by 92.50/60 zone, and finally 92.20.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/yen-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on January 5, 2009 at 12:00 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd has fall pretty well since the beginning of European session, breaking daily minimum right now, and in 4 hours charts indicators are pointing for a continuation after opening under the 50% of the last daily up leg:despite the oversold state in smaller charts, the pair seems ready to continue, with next supports at 1.3515, a small stop @ 1.3560, but addressing to 1.3520 zone where we have the 200 EMA and the base of a descendant channel. you can see in this chart. Regarding resistances, above 1.3680 we could see some recovery, first to 1.3710, followed by 1.3768and then the zone @ 1.3820.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2009/01/eur-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
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Have a great day!
Gbp continues fall
Posted on December 29, 2008 at 13:34 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Nothing new here, Gbp remains the weaker currency across the board, with Gbp/Jpy close to a 13 years minimum (129.32 back in April 1995) and Gbp/Usd fighting to stay above the 1.4600 level: moving in a descendant channel, the pair seems ready to continue to the downside after the strong 1.4660 zone has been broken; only above this value we could see some recovery there, with next resistances at 1.4710 and the zone @ 1.4740, roof of the mentioned channel yet quite unlikely for today. Supports from actual 1.4600 will be at 1.4560, 1.4525 and finally the zone @ 1.4460.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp9-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd technical perspective for today
Posted on December 29, 2008 at 13:22 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains bullish, fighting to break above the 1.4300 level, still unable to do it. 4 hours chart is quite overbought in 4 hours charts, so we could expect a correction under 1.4250 to the zone @ 1.4200. a break under that level, will send the pair back to 1.4170 and then to 1.4125. Regarding resistances, consider 1.4315, 1.4362 and finally the zone @ 1.4390.
Tags: eurusd
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on December 29, 2008 at 11:54 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:Eur/Usd: Bullish
Gbp/Usd: Neutral
Usd/Chf: Bearish
Usd/Jpy: Bearish
Last week of the month
Posted on December 29, 2008 at 11:13 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Extremely trading conditions ruled the market last week, yet greenback is sharply lower this Monday, with euro and Swiss Franc leading the way. Both currencies are running high despite some bad fundamental readings, supported by their rate advantage and on the back of trouble in the Middle East, that’s pushing commodity prices higher.The Pound on the other hand continues falling after a record annual fall in U.K. house prices of 8.7%. Japanese yen is winning some strength despite we are going to see more choppy trading this week there, as Japanese importers and exporters have entered the Long New Year holidays, that will last until January 5th. See you in some minutes with some technicals. Have a great day!
Majors’s Sentiment for today
Posted on December 23, 2008 at 10:57 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
For today, I must say that majors are NEUTRAL.
Starting the day
Posted on December 23, 2008 at 10:55 in Starting the day by Valeria Bednarik3 Comments »
Hi everyone, hope you are fine! Taking a look at charts, I feel I’m quite alone here today, if you know what I mean: majors are practically unchanged for the past 24 hours, and there are very little chances we see some activity. The poor liquidity that exacerbated market movements turns into no liquidity at all, so be aware, is possible that just one move, make a determinate price jump a good number of pips in a few minutes… only to leave it there. No trading days for me, these ones, we have banks holidays (the U.S. banks however will remain open tomorrow, at least that’s what I can see in my calendar) but joy time to enjoy with family (well to be honest.. enjoying family is something we should do all year long, I do http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif ) and to make personalbalances. Let me tell you and share with you, how happy I’m of being here. No doubts an amazing adventurethat’s only beginning. I will stay around today, and tomorrow in the American session, but if you don’t, let me wish you a Merry Christmas and the best 2009. I want to particularly send extra hugs and kisses to all the Fxstreet.com team, that works day by day harder than you can imagine, to provide us all with all this amazing world of forex info. Best wishes to my fellow bloggers, and thank you! for being here day after day.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/ani_santa.gif
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Posted on December 22, 2008 at 16:09 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Last week spike to 1.4720 is distorting a bit my vision of what happened and what could happen from here, but not that much: if we place a Fibo, in monthly charts to all the rally from 1.6038 to 1.2330, we find that the pair has passed just above the 61.8% to quickly come back even under the monthly ascendant trend line broken in October, and even today, seems hard to the pair to regain that zone. For me, we have already seen the correction of the unwind fall in the same unwind way. As long as the pair remains in this zone, i see more chances of a bearish continuation than a bullish one, more if we take into account that rumours of an ECB rate cut remain strong. So let’s consider the zone @ 1.4050 to be our first resistance to the upside, andthe point to break to consider further upside rallies. On the other hand, the zone @ 1.3740 (31.8% of the mentioned rally) could well be our selling zone to the consider. I see a bearish January and we will have some good confirmation under that level. Meanwhile and just a note for today, consider 1.3880 and 1.3830 as intraday supports and 1.3960 and 1.4010 as intraday resistances.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/eur3-300x181.gif
Out of office for a couple of hours
Posted on December 22, 2008 at 12:17 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
I will be out for 2 hours, so once I return I will be posting majors view, and answering pending questions. See you then!
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on December 22, 2008 at 11:33 in Sentiment, Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Slightly Bearish
Gbp/Usd: Bearish
Usd/Chf: Slightly Bullish
Usd/Jpy: Neutral to Bullish
Starting the day
Posted on December 22, 2008 at 11:18 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, and welcome to a new week in Forex market! The dollar is mixed at the week opening, loosing some ground against most majors, except my Japanese yen that remains uncertain and Gbp, that’s falling hard all across the board. We are in fact, close to Christmas and New Year Holiday, and we have ahead a 2 day’s week (we have Bank Holidays all across the world from Wednesday to Friday) so I expect uncertain moves for these days, despite we have a good number of fundamentals coming out these days. Anyway, let’s see if we use this time to see what could happen in the longer term better than in short one. I will be back with some technicals in a minutes. Have a great day!
Usd/Jpy: nothing new under the sun
Posted on December 19, 2008 at 11:30 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The BoJ rate cut has barely affected the pair, and the downside pressure remains intact: moving downwards, the pair has supports for the next hours at 88.50, the zone between 88.10/20 and then 87,60, under which the pair will retry to test the minimum’s zone around 87.10. resistances on the other hand will be 89.10, the zone @ 89.50 (we have a pretty descendant 4 hours descendant trend line there) and above 90.20. Only a good confirmation above this last, can change the pair destiny for the next days.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/ye-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on December 19, 2008 at 11:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Looking at 4 hours charts, the pair has just give a bearish signal with this last 5 hours candle opening, as momentum has crossed to the downside the 0.00 line, while candle opened under the 20 periods SMA. the pair has a support zone @ 1.3985, so if the minimum if broken, we could see a downside extension first to the zone @ 1.3900, 38.2% of these last three weeks rally. Under it. 1.3840, and 1.3770, will be next zones to consider. From actual price, resistances will be at 1.4045, 1.4110, 1,4166 and finally 1,4210.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/eur2-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Major’s sentiment for today
Posted on December 19, 2008 at 10:32 in Sentiment by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Bearish
Gbp/Usd: Bearish
Usd/Chf: Bullish
Usd/Jpy: Neutral to Bearish
Tags: Majors sentiment
Starting the day
Posted on December 19, 2008 at 10:30 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody and welcome. Wild movements continues in the forex market, but Europe made a point: the ECB announced that it will cut the rate of interest on deposits held at the central bank in an attempt to discourage inflows, and also increased the rate of its marginal lending facility to 3.5% from 3.0% in an attempt to reduce the surge of cash out of dollar deposits into euro deposits since last Fed’s rate cut; the unstoppableeuro rise find finally a top, and the European currency is comingback as quickly as it surge these last days: close to 1.4000, the pair has lost 700 pips in the last 24 hours, and seems ready to continue down. The Bank of Japan cut it’s interest rates last night to 0.10%, narrowing the interest gap between U.S. and Japan,but that was not enough to stop Jpy strenght: the pair seems unable to regain the key 90.00 level, and as long as price remain under it, pressure to the downside will continue pushing hard. Finally Gbp also fell heavilyandcontinues moving down, ready to regain the 1.4600 zone. There are no fundamental news left for today, so I will start quickly with today’s technicals. Have a great day!
Tags: Daily report
Eur/Gbp 1 to 1?
Posted on December 18, 2008 at 12:42 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik3 Comments »
While Euro seems to have no roof, Gbp remains weak all across the board, and with no signs of winning strength, as recession deeps more and more. Is the U.K being pushed to enter the Euro zone? are we close to see the pair 1 to 1? is tending to. Daily charts remain bullish and a run above 96.00 seems possible for the next days, but not as far as 97.00. Only under the zone around 0.9300 we could see the pair falling more clearly, but as I said, no signs of that at the moment. Take a look at this daily chart: despite indicators are way to over bough, they still remain pointing to the upside.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/eugb-300x181.gif
Eur/Usd fighting key level
Posted on December 18, 2008 at 11:34 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Still showing wild movements and despite reaching 1.4719, I believe we are close to a confirmation here about to where continue. For the past two hours, the pair has fight the 1.4620 level, where we have the monthly 61.8% level mentioned yesterday. A daily close or even better a weekly close above it, will probably suggest continuation to the upside, being 1.4880 zone next important resistances. However, the pair is too over bought both in daily and 4 hours charts, and I see an imminent correction, at least to the zone @ 1.4300. In the short term 1.4540, 1.4500 and 1.4433 will be the supports to consider, while to the upside, only above 1.4638 the pair will give more probables entries to the upside, to 1.4680, and 1.4719.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/eur1-300x181.gif
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Tags: dollarEur/Usd where to?
Posted on December 17, 2008 at 12:41 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
This is daily chart, with a Fibo containing all the monthly drop, from July’s maximum at 1.6038, to 1.2330 reached in October. The pair hit today 1.4190 50% of the mentioned rally, and began a come back; however the pair remains bullish here, and unless a break under 1.3900, the rally could extend to the upwards. The zone @ 1.4300 will be the one to consider for further rises in the longer term, to the zone close to 1.4610. Daily candle is far to close, still shows a probable downward move to follow, more if we consider the overbought state of the pair. For today and from actual price, consider 1.4000 as a first support, followed by 1.3950, and 1.3910. Resistances on the other hand will be at 1.4085, 1.4145 zone and finally the maximum at 1.4190.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/eur-300x184.gif
Tags: Add new tag, eurusd
Usd/Cad long term perspective
Posted on December 17, 2008 at 11:26 in Long-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Maybe not the first one to notice this, but here we are, with a triple roof in daily charts: the pair has been trying to push above 1.3000, also a tough support zone back in 2004, without passing trough. In fact take a look at monthly charts, and see what I can see: 1.3000 has always beena huge inflection point, that took the pair several attempts to break, triggering a major trend after that, both up or down. Now, combined with this daily Fibo I add, we can see two key points tothe downside, that could tell us whether this is acorrection to regain strength and reattempt again the 1.30, or if we are at the first stages of a reversal: fighting with the 38.2% zone and with several highs and lows, @ 1.1900. Any confirmation under that pair could send the pair back to the lows around 1.1440, that we could consider the neck of this figure, and pretty close to the 61.8% of the rally. If that zone holds, in the medium term the pair will have more chances of testing again the 1.30 zone than of continuing falling. While indicators here are giving signs of bearish continuation, we need to wait and see for a couple of days, to where the par moves in relation of this 1.1900/38.2% Fibonacci zone, to determinate next steps here.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/cad-300x184.gif
Tags: Usd/Cad
Majors’ sentiment for today
Posted on December 17, 2008 at 10:34 in Sentiment by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Bullish
Gbp/Usd: Neutral
Usd/Chf: Bearish
Usd/Jpy: Bearish
Starting the day
Posted on December 17, 2008 at 10:30 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine! Asian session gave no relief to American dollar, that hit lower lows compared to yesterday against major rivals. Some very small corrections are developing right now, yet nothing that can really change downside pressure for greenback in the short term. I have been watching particularly Aud, and Cad, there are lots of interesting things there, so I will add a post about them today. We use to say, that both currencies move faster that others against dollar, and could anticipate other majors behaviour. Let’s see what we can “read” there. Anyway, today we have just a few fundamentals to take into account, you can check them following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be back in a minute with today’s technicals. Have a great day!
FOMC Decision
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 20:18 in News by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The Federal Reserve has slashed the funds rate not just with a 0.75 basis points but in fact to a range between 0.00% and 0.25%to combat recession, starting a new phase for economic policy, keeping rates “exceptionally low” and with lending programs financed by the Fed’s ballooning balance sheet. Also called quantitative easing, Bernanke said that with such low rates, a new weapon is needed to ensure growth and there it is the provision of liquidity. In the meanwhile majors rose against greenback and become closer to probable break levels, (except by GBP that by the way, gave the expected 100 pips rally). Tomorrow I will add longer term charts view, to see if we can decide whether this is a correction, or a renewed dollar bearish rally.
See you then!
Tags: FOMC, rates
Ahead of the FED’s bell
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 18:37 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Dollar continues falling across the board, not so strong against Gbp but clearly against other rivals, anticipating a 0,50 rate cut in the U.S. in less than 1 hour. That will leave the Americanfunds rate to the lowest level on record (just 0.50% basis points), and market players are betting on more greenback falls, even on a 0.75% cut. But how far will it go? I believe a 0.50% cut could be already priced in, become disappointing, and senddollar up; a 0,75% will probably push majors higher, in the very short term. However, how far could the fall extend? Typical of this time of the year, actual movementremains today, just a correction of the big rise we have been seen since past August; longer term trend has not yet changed: we could see Euro close to 1.40 and Gbp@ 1.60 before a new down leg of both to fresh minimums. Japanese yen is playing a different game here, and remains strong and probably will continue actual trend fora couple months. Anyway we are close to the release time, so get ready! Euro key level to the upside will be between 1.3880 and 1.3900, while Gbp has a good rally to the upside of at least 100 pips, if manages to break above 1.5400. Jpy must break under 89.50, to gain bearish momentum.
See you after the release!
American positive start
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 14:43 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Stocks has just open higher, on hopes of another rate cut later today, by the FED; however European currencies seem a bit exhausted to the upside at the moment, and unable to break higher with speed, not yet giving up enough ground to consider a correction: Euro probablyunder 1.3700 could start one, Chf above 1.1530 and GBP under 1.5300. As long as they remain in these levels, chances remain bigger for a new upleg against dollar
Tags: rates, Stocks
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Tags: eurusd
Usd/Cfh probable bullish correction
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 12:05 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Usd/Chf, has reached early this morning a new low at 1.1542, very close to a daily ascendant trend line, coming from 1.0010 today at 1.5030, a key zone that should hold: a break under the line and some confirmation under it, could trigger renewed bearish strength in the pair, despite the oversold state clear in 4 hours charts, with next supports at 1.1500, 1.1467 and finally the zone @ 1.1410. Regarding resistance, the pair is unable to break above the 1.1590zone, above it could return close to 1.1620 and then to 1.1660 61.8% of last fall. We also have an openning gap from last Sunday opening @ 1.1770, that the pair will reached only if manages to move above 1.1740 strong zone this week.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/vhf-300x181.gif
Tags: Usd/Chf
Gbp/Usd correcting yesterday’s rally
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 10:24 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Each one of us, no doubts has different tools to watch market. I tell you many times in webinars, and here, how important is for me as a dynamic support or resistance, the 200 EMA mostly for Euro and Gbp; and that was what happened yesterday here: price reached the EMA zone, and quickly rebound nearly 50 pips, starting a downside correction still valid at this moment: see indicators turning down, yet not giving signals at the moment. However, the downside is contained by the 38.2% of the last rally, at 1.5204 reached a few minutes ago. A break under that minimum, could mean a bearish continuation with next supports around 1.5160, 1.5120 and then 1.5082. close to the 61.8% of the mentioned rally. Above 1.5270, next resistance will be around 1.5325, and above it, yesterday’s maximum at 1.5380.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp8-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 9:55 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Sightly bearish
Gbp/Usd: Slightly bearish
Usd/Chf: Slightly bullish
Usd/Jpy: Bearish
Starting the day
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 9:52 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody and welcome again. Dollar sank yesterday, pushed by the general pessimism of the American economic situation, and probably ahead of today’s FED rate cut. Add to this, the thin conditions we have by this time of the year, that produce those exaggerated price movements, and here we are. Only Japanese yen remains “quiet” as the fight there, is tied at the moment. News published earlier in Europe and England shown some improvement just for England and the rest of the readings where negative, reminding us conditions in the Euro zone are far for improving. Anyway, we have a really busy day ahead, with lots of fundamentals and late in the afternoon, FED’s rate decision, so let’s start early with technicals. You can check today’s calendar following this link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be back in a few minutes, have a great day!
Usd/Jpy fighting between trend and intervention
Posted on December 15, 2008 at 12:56 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains clearly bearish indaily and weekly charts, and even turning to 4 hours, we see the pair also pushing to the downside despite flat indicators. Under 90.46 we could see the pair running quick to the 90.00zone, followed by the zone between 89.50/40, and under this last,chances are of a retest of last Friday’s minimum. To the upside, see the 4 hours descendant trend line we have: the pair is unable to break above, so I believe only above 91.10/15 we could see some bullish continuation to 91.56 and finally the zone @92.00.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/yen5-300x181.gif
I believe by this time, I’m not the only one in an intervention watch; intervention will take placeonly if we see somemore sharp falls there as we have seen on Friday, as excess of volatility is not what the Group of Seven prefer at this time.
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd technical perspective
Posted on December 15, 2008 at 11:40 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Gbp remains weak and contained in these last days range, unable to move upward. We havean ascendant trend line in 4 hours charts that could be a good target to the downside if the pair moves to that direction (indicators are suggesting so) but the pair will first need to break under 1.4940, first support for today, followed by 1.4880/1.4900 zone. If the pair manages to break under this line consider 1.4825 zone as probable target for the movement. Resistances will be at 1.5005, followed by 1.5036 and the zone @ 1.5086 above which maximum will get exposed and further moves could be contained by 1.5165, yet I cannot see the pair there at least today.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp7-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on December 15, 2008 at 11:07 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Take a look at this 4 hours charts. The pair is above the daily trend line, althought there are a couple of things make me doubt the straight continuation from here up: first the day started witha gap, and also under the descendant trend line, meaning it can come down as a correction; also we have the pair quite overbought with RSI around 78. So maybe we could see some falls with supports at 1.3430 followed by 1.3390/1.3400, pullback to the daily line; Under that zone, we will probably see the pair closing the gap, in the zone @ 1.3360. Regarding resistances, above today’s maximum at 1.3499 the pair has a tough congestion zone between 1.3510/30, and i thing a break above that zone will probably confirm more bullish for the rest of the week, with next resistance at 1.3580.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/euro7-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Major’s sentiment for today
Posted on December 15, 2008 at 10:09 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Bullish (probable correction before a continuation)
Gbp/Usd: Slightly bullish
Usd/Chf: Bearish (probable correction before a continuation)
Usd/Jpy: Bearish
Tags: Majors sentiment
Starting the day
Posted on December 15, 2008 at 10:05 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody and welcome to a new week in forex market. Greenback fall continues after last Friday Senate fail to approve the bailout for auto industry, and remains under selling pressure across the board. Asian session has bring us fresh lowsparticularly against Euro and Chf, that despite being over bought remain pushing higher. Meanwhile intervention in Japan remains arumor, yet I believe if the pair breaks again the 90.00 and continue running, we will be closer to it. We have some fundamentals today in the U.S. session, you can check the release time following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be back in a while with technical perspective for today. Have a great day!
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on December 11, 2008 at 17:54 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Despite being over bought in all time frames euro is not ready to correct. Next target is the descendant trend line at 1.3450 that should offer good rebound at least at a first attempt.A daily close above it could chance the future of the pair.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/eu-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
More pressure on dollar
Posted on December 11, 2008 at 13:38 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
News published in the U.S. are worst than expected, with Import Prices posting record drops, the Trade Balance deficit widening to-57.2 billions and the weekly unemployment claims in their highest level in more than 30 years. Despite majors could seem over bought against greenback, we are not yet in the daily bottom.
Tags: Dolar, Trade Balance
Eur/Usd update
Posted on December 11, 2008 at 12:30 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is rising to quick to let me write a complete analysis, just a short advance: small times frames seem over bought so maybe we could see some correction from here, (not suggesting trading short) but if remains here and breaks above 1.3230, next targets will be at 1.3288 and then 1.3333.
Tags: eurusd
Usd/Jpy technical and fundamental perspective
Posted on December 11, 2008 at 11:55 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis, Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Japanese Yen continues strengthening and technically remains bearish in daily and 4 hours charts; however the Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa warns he is watching forex movements due to the impact of yen appreciation on exports; also he declare that theMinistry of Finance has the option of intervention when the forex moves are big. And if Usd/Jpy breaks under the 90.92 minimum accomplished this year, stops could trigger a big bearish rally and intervention will probably become a reality. This is “one of those cases” where fundamentals are more than just “noise”: A market intervention will made the pair rise to a comfortable level for Japanese exporters and change any technical perspective. I don’t expect that to happen today, but price is not far away form the 90.00 level and that will probably trigger the alarm. If you are a long term trader, just pay attention to that.
Today and from actual levels, the pair remains bearish and ready to continue to the downside: I can see a strong congestion zone that extends between 91.65 and 91.90, so if the pair manages to break under that without to much hesitation, continuation will be confirmed, with next supports @ 91.00 and under the year minimum the pair will probably approach to the hey 90.00 level. Above 92.36 the pair can regain the 92.60 zone, and above it 93.00 will be the next step to consider.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/yen4-300x181.gif
Tags: Boj, usdjpy
Gbp/Usd Technical Analysis
Posted on December 11, 2008 at 10:47 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Taking a look at daily chart, the pair is fighting right now, with a descendant daily trend line and the 20 periods SMA; indicators are quite bullish with Momentum crossing the 100 line, and the CCI near to cut the 0 line. A daily confirmation above here, could turn the bias for the pair for the next week.
Turning to 4 hours charts, indicators are also bullish although CCI is a bit overbought and the pair is probably giving a small rebound before breaking trough the 1.5000 zone. Supports from actual zone are at 1.4932, followed by 1.4850/60 zone and then the zone between 1.4790/1.4810. Resistances above the 1.5000 will be at the zone @ 1.5055 followed by 1.5120 and finally 1.5180.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp6-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Majors’s sentiment for today
Posted on December 11, 2008 at 8:29 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the majors sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Bullish
Gbp/Usd: Slightly bullish
Usd/Chf: Bearish
Usd/Jpy: Slightly bearish
Tags: Majors sentiment
Starting (early) the day
Posted on December 11, 2008 at 8:11 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you are fine. Starting early the day, 5:00 am in the morning around here, and my baby girl (a bit sick), keep me awake all night long; she is sleeping right now, and of course I can’t, so I rather do something useful. Watching market, and reading news, the headlines of both together seems to be “greenback is loosing ground against Europeans, as optimism on America´s new bailout plan made investors prefer higher risk currencies” Maybe a way to understand market from the fundamental point of view, although you know, I prefer technical analysis. I was searching for a couple of weeks ago a post like this, where I told youthat from the technical point of view, things were starting to change, and well, here we are. Euro recuperated the 1.3100 during Asian session, and is behaving good to me, quoting where I was expecting it. Gbp remains the weaker at this moment despite is recovering some ground, yet the titans battle remain tight between Dollar and Japanese Yen, that remains quoting @ 92.50; strange, if dollar is falling against other rivals, and being Jpy the stronger currency lately, the pair should have fall a bit more stronger. So are we here in a bottom for the pair, or will it finally return to the “right way” and move in the contrary direction of Euro, or Gbp? well, I will made a post later from the technical perspective, for each pair, andyou can see my conclusions there! For now, we have abusy day ahead, starting with ECB President Mr. Trichet speech and more fundamentals you can check following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be back after a cup of coffee. Have a great day!
Eur/Usd update
Posted on December 10, 2008 at 18:54 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
By this time of the day, the pair has respected nicely the technical objectives proposed earlier,and is close to hit the final target calculated for today, @ 1.3080. the daily candle is ready to close above the trend line, so we could probably see more continuation to the upside in next days, with 1.3115/30 as next interesting breakout point. Remember we can see pullbacks or short term corrections before a continuation, so if the pair falls, should not do it further than 1.2960 (there we have right now, the broken trend line) to keep the bullish doors open.Let’s see how the day ends, and if tomorrow we have some longer term confirmations.
Tags: eurusd
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on December 10, 2008 at 13:31 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Usd/Jpy is quite boring this days as it’s stuck to the 92.50 zone, moving in a quite contained range: still bearish for me, the pair seems a bit “tired” in daily charts still with no signs of trend definition the key zone to control will be 94.10 to the upside, and 91.00 to the downside, the extremes of the range. From actual price and like yesterday, resistances will be at 93.00/10 zone, followed by 93.50 and then the zone around 93.90. Supports from here will be the 92.50 zone 92.20 and finally 91.60.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/yen3-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
More technical education: Channels
Posted on December 10, 2008 at 12:28 in Technical Education by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Time for more technical education: here we are with some channels definitions and tips. Hope you enjoy it!
A channel is a figure usually of high reliability, formed by two parallel trend lines at it borders. One connects the price highs, the other the price lows, and in between, there is a zone where price use to stay till broke. Both trend lines, upper and lower act as support and resistance.
There are different kind of channels, but mostly work the same way. Let’s see the a practical example of each one:
Horizontal Channel:
It can be find either in up or down trends. It doesn’t mean a change of the previous trend, only a rest in the dominant trend, but usually the break is produced in the same way, previous trend was moving.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/11-300x181.gif
Bullish channel:
For itself, shows us the major trend. It doesn’t mean a change of that trend, until is broke down.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/22-300x181.gif
And of course, bearish ones are exactly the same but with trend going the opposite way. Regarding bullish and bearish channels, remembertThere is not a fixed number of times price touch channels lines, but is important to know, that we need at least 4 points (meaning two maximum and two minimums) to CONFIRM the formation.
For all cases, target is calculated measuring the distance between both trend lines, and projecting that value the way the broke is produced; that could be a minimum target price, where currencies will try to go.
Always remember, both lines must be parallel; different angles will lead as to misleading conclusions.
Practical trade with channels
Channels are useful to trade, because they show us certain points where reactions should start. When drawn properly, it can assist us to identify areas of support or resistance (determinate by the floor and the roof of the channel). Is a very valuable tool, because once
a channel is defined we can see many triggers inside it
But first of all, trading with channels gives us a great strategy, because for itself we have a stop loss defined (maximum loss to afford), and a reliable price target to set the take profit. Practically, once the price touch the bottom, or floor of the channel, there are good chances that, once confirmed the reversion, will try to reach the top or roof of that channel. In case we choose to wait for a confirmation (what I recommend) we can draw a smaller trend line inside the channel, and once this line is broken, we have a signal that price will try to reach the opposite band of the channel. For this strategy, we have to always remind that if price runs off any extreme of the channel, the strategy loose its efficiency and if we trade properly, then we are out of the market by the stop or the limit order. The other possible way to trade channels, is by waiting for the break, that would happen eventually: once price action breaks any of both lines, and confirm with a candle opening the break, we have good chances to see the height of the channel repeated out of it. From my experience, I found out Japanese Yen crosses are the ones that respect more this kind of figures.
Tags: Technical Education
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on December 10, 2008 at 11:41 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Ok, here we are again, with price closer to the descendant line seen yesterday. Talking about confirmations I always mention, see how the price was unable to close above it, despite the spikes to 1.3000. As the lines are drawn in daily charts, we need to see at least a 4 hours candle and even better a daily one opening above, to confirm a break. Indicators are turning to the downside, yet the pair has a first support zone with a congestion zone @ 1.2900 and the 200 EMA you can see (violet) in the chart. Under it, we have next support at 1.2863, and then 1.2815. Regarding resistances, 1.2960 zone and 1.3000 are the ones to consider, yet if the pair manages to pass this last with some speed, we will have 1.3036 and 1.3080 zone as probable targets for today.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/euro6-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Major’s sentiment for today
Posted on December 10, 2008 at 10:45 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is the major’s sentiment for today:
Eur/Usd: Slightly bullish
Gbp/Usd: Neutral
Usd/Chf: Slightly bearish
Usd/Jpy: Slightly bullish
Tags: Majors sentiment
Starting the day
Posted on December 10, 2008 at 10:35 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, and welcome. Another strong movements day we had yesterday, with Euro recovering strongly testing the 1.30 zone as expected, yet unable to break above, while Japanese Yen reached the 91.90 level. Anyway, market remains thinnerthan usual, normal for this time of the year, and more because the uncertainty of actual recession times. By this time, greenback is pushing higher,and we don’t have much more fundamentals for today. Let’s start with technicals quickly, and see what to expect for the rest of the day.
Gbp/Usd under pressure
Posted on December 9, 2008 at 13:25 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik4 Comments »
The pair is quite bearish for me today, take a look at this chart: CCI is crossing to the downside, while the pair is ready to break the 61.8% of the last up leg: 1.4715 is the first support to consider, followed by 1.4681, and 1.4632. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.4785, 1.4825 and finally 1.4860.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp5-300x181.gif
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on December 9, 2008 at 12:01 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
This pair has not change much fromyesterday, and remains under bearish pressure. The pair is contained by the 93.00/10 zone, and indicators, including the 20 SMA are too flat to take them into account right now. So above the 93.15, the pair could move to 93.50 and then to the zone around 93.90, but not quite clear at this time. under the key support zone at 92.50, today’s minimum will be next target, and under it, the zone @ 91.60.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/yen2-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd technical perspective
Posted on December 9, 2008 at 11:42 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Well, here we are with Euro giving up some ground, after reaching yesterday, a descendant trend line clear in daily charts. Take a look at it, we have kind of a triangle there, and yesterday’s high was the third time to touch the roof, making the line stronger. Usually consider a continuation figure, we are far from the base today, but something to take into account. Also a break and a candle opening above the descendant line, will change the view and deny the continuation, and that could happen above 1.2960.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/eurdia1-300x181.gif
Let’s turn to 4 hours charts and see what could happen today: I add a Fibonacci to yesterday’s upside rally, and a few minutes ago, reached the 50% of the rally.right now, the zone @ 1.2845, seems to be the first resistance to consider, followed by the congestion zone at 1.2890. If the pair manages to move forward, then yesterday’s high has good chances of being retested.under 1.2802 downside could extend first to 1.2765 (61.8% of the mentioned rally) and under it, to 1.2710/20.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/eur4-300x181.gif
Major’s sentiment for today
Posted on December 9, 2008 at 10:14 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
As promised, here is the most probable direction for majors today.
Eur/Usd: Slightly Bullish
Gbp/Usd: Bearish
Usd/Chf: Slightly Bearish
Usd:Jpy: Bearish
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on December 8, 2008 at 13:39 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Just a quick look to this pair: close to historical maximums, the pair is slightlybearish in 4 hours charts, and also has a tough resistance @ 0.8670. Tuning to 30 minutes, we have kind of a descendant channel, with the roof also @ that zone. Maybe if reached, we have a good short term bearish opportunity, as next resistance is very close above 0.8686, meaning we have a good tight stop, and chances to see the pair approaching to 0.8630 or so, meaning the risk reward ratio favour us.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/eurgbp-300x181.gif
Tags: Eur/Gbp
Gbp/Usd medium and short term
Posted on December 8, 2008 at 13:03 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Take a look at this daily chart: the pair remains quite bearish, and despite CCI is turning to the upside, momentum remains bearish, price remains under the 20 SMA and we also have that descendant trend line, that should contain the pair at the moment. The CCI divergence is far form the 0.00 level, meaning we still are far from any reversal signal. The pair reached today the 1.5059 level, only to quickly come back; to confirm further falls in the medium term, consider 1.4655 zone as the first major support, followed by 1.4540 and the year minimum at 1.4467; under that the 1.4400 zone will be the last barrier with next proximate objective in the zone @ 1.4240. Resistances on the other hand will be at today’s, maximum, followed by 1.5130, 1.5280 and 1.5420, but only a confirmation above 1.5530 could change the pair bias and begin a more interesting upside correction.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbpd-300x181.gif
Turning to 4 hours charts,the pair is about to break under the 38.2% of the last upleg: if manages to confirm around here, next support will be at the zone between 1.4390/1.4810, with more “noise” at 1.4770. Only under that we could see more bearish momentum to 1.4727 and finally 1.4686. Regarding resistances once the pair regains the 1.4868, we could see it running up, to 1.4920, the congestion zone @ 1.4970 and finally today’s high.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp4-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Usd/Jpy for the rest of the day
Posted on December 8, 2008 at 11:34 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Japanese yen daily charts remain bearish and seems in the longer term we are far from a reversion there, and we are still very close to the key 90.00 level. At this point a government intervention will be more than just a threat and if the pair reaches the zone, will downside movements could be expected. But right now 4 hours charts are attempting to rise and 93.50 is the first level to consider, followed by today’s maximum at 93.86. Above that, 94.28 will be the next level to consider, and probably not much further than that. Regarding supports, we have a tough congestion zone @ 93.00, so we need the pair to move at least under 92.80 to see some bearish momentum to 92.45, then 92.20 and finally the zone @ 91.60.
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on December 8, 2008 at 10:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is again moving inside an inverted triangle, usually a reversion figure; a few minutes ago, the pair reached the ascendant trend line at the top of the figure, and right now, is also fighting the 200 EMA at 4 hours charts. The pair is pushing to the upside, yet will need to break above today’s maximum, in order to continue first, to the zone @ 1.2942, followed by 1.2968 andfinally close to 1.3000. Only under 1.2860, we could see some reversion in the pair, with an intermediate target around 1.2830 but most likely close to 1.2790/2805, and under this last, 1.2745.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/euro5-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Major’s sentiment for today
Posted on December 8, 2008 at 10:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Fxstreet.com team has asked me to post a general view of the 4 majors daily, so I will add it from today on. Remember is the most likely side of the market, at least for me.
Eur/Usd: Bullish
Gbp/Usd: Bullish
Usd/Chf: Bearish
Usd/Jpy: Neutral to bearish.
Starting the day
Posted on December 8, 2008 at 10:08 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, welcome to a new day in forex market. Asian session started with majors firming up against dollar, as the bad readings seen last Friday in the U.S. employment numbers, are proving the acceleration on American’seconomy recession. Greenback is in trouble, yet not alone, so it’s early to even mention a new trend definition: majors remain in range, and we have a busy week ahead from the macroeconomic point of view, so maybe by the end of the year, we could have some more clear definitions for the longer term. For the rest of the day, we have some news, mostly speeches, so you can check calendar following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be right back, have a great day!
Non Farm Payrolls numbers
Posted on December 5, 2008 at 13:32 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Employment Change: - 533K
Unemployment rate: 6.7%
Revision of previous month: -320K
Really bad readings for this report, largest drop since December 1974. Dollar is in trouble.
Tags: Non Farm Payroll
Usd/Jpy levels for today
Posted on December 5, 2008 at 12:48 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Japanese yen remains quite strong, so this particular pair is still suffering the bearish pressure. With the zone @ 92.00 holding for now, a clear break under will find next supports at the zone @ 91.50 yet more likely the minimum reached at 90.92, that if broken could trigger more interesting sells in here. Regarding resistances, consider 92.55 as the first one, followed by the zone @ 93.20, yet only a confirmation above 93.70 could change the pair bias.
Tags: usdjpy
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Posted on December 5, 2008 at 12:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Gbp/Usd remains pretty bearish in daily charts, although at this timeI see no clear trend definitions in 4 hours one. The pair is right now fighting the tough congestion zone at 1.4665/80 mentioned during the live coverage, so consider that only above 1.4720 the pair could move to the upside, with next resistances at 1.4775, the zone @ 1.4830, followed by the more interesting 1.4890 and finally @ 1.4930. Regarding supports, 1.4636 will be the first to consider, but only a break under 1.4584 will open doors for further falls. From there, we have 1.4555, 1.4470, and under it, the tough congestion zone @ 1.4430.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp3-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Usd/Chf update
Posted on December 5, 2008 at 11:55 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Remember the Fibo fan? Let’s follow the chart: yesterday’s rally send the pair quickly under the 50% pushing indicators to the downside: see the perfect “V” shape CCI marked in 4 hours charts, and thecome back to the upside after regaining the -200 level. Also momentum is pointing up, and the candle opened above the 20 SMA (red in charts), while price is regainning the 50% level. In one line, the pair is bullish at the moment, with 1.2120 as a first resistance for today. Above it, we have the zone @ 1.2156, followed by 1.2210/20, and above it, 1.2293, maximum of these last days. Regarding supports, 1.2070 will be the first to consider, followed by 1.2023, 1.1990, considering 1.1954 as a more strong support, and finally the zone @ 1.1910.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/chf1-300x181.gif
Tags: Usd/Chf
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on December 5, 2008 at 11:39 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is falling quickly right now, but reached the 20 SMA in 4 hours chart, that contained the drop for now, but look the MA: is losing some of the bullish inclination that started yesterday, and could turn again to the downside. While indicators are pointing lower, we could expect some wild movements herein the next hours, just as a tip, remember and watch to learn: nearly all this year, and despite a negative or positive report, or number of pips triggered, by the end of the day the pair comes back close to pre fundamental price. I’m not telling you that is a 100% accurate fact, but watch market behaviour, remember it and learn. From actual price, we have a very close first support at the zone between 1.2690/1.2700, followed by 1.2660, 1.2610, 1.2584 and finally the zone @ 1.2540. Only above 1.2745, the pair could regain the bullish attitude, with next resistances at the zone @ 1.2810, followed by yesterday’s high at 1.2847, above which, 1.2900 will be exposed.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/euro4-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day - Yesterday’s newspaper
Posted on December 5, 2008 at 10:41 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, welcome back! I don’t like to repeat myself; I rather add new stuff to the blog making this readings interesting and educative. But today, well I will repeat myself: told you many times, it’s easy to analyze what happened yesterday after all happened. Euro rose after the rate cuts that surpassed expectations, also GBP. I can told you, that maybe traders are convinced that authorities are acting to improve their tumbling economies, but we know that under other circumstances, usually such rate cuts made majors fall apart; that’s why I always emphasize that we have to had a two ways plan: above this, or under that, wait for technical confirmations, breaks of levels, trend lines, whatever.The method depends on each of us, but trying tocatch a big fundamental from before the release, is closer to betting than trading. With a two ways plan, and giving the market one or two 15 minutes candles, we will surely get more accurate trades. Maybe a few less pips, but that’s the price to pay, for a more reliable strategy. Ok, we have another fundamental day today, with the U.S. Non Farm Payroll, expected really negative, so i will prepare the technical points to take care for each major before it. You can check the hours release, following next link.
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
BoE and ECB Live Coverage
Posted on December 4, 2008 at 15:41 in Uncategorized by adminNo Comments »
Euro and Gbp update
Posted on December 4, 2008 at 14:43 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
At this time both majors are breaking up the key levels mentioned during the live coverage, seems agressive rate cuts are favoring Europeans. Next targets are 1.4720 por Gbp ( the most reluctant one) and 1.2710 and 1.2753 for Euro.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd
Gbp/Usd levels
Posted on December 4, 2008 at 11:25 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The time is close, time runs, and so Gbp to the downside. Close to the minimum at 1.4470, the pair has an old tough congestion zone @ 1.4430, so I consider a confirmation under that zone, could send the pair to 1.4244, followed by 1.4190 and finally the zone @ 1.4130/40. Only above 1.4665 we could see some bullish correction, with next resistances at 1.4710, 1.4775, and finally the zone @ 1.4830.
I’m starting the live coverage right now, se you there and back here after that!.
Tags: gbpusd
Live coverage
Posted on December 4, 2008 at 11:13 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
In about 20 minutes, I will be start covering live! the rates releases in Fxstreet.com home page. See you there!
Tags: rates live coverage
Euro/Usd levels
Posted on December 4, 2008 at 11:11 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Ok, let’s try to see the big picture here; after 3 months of falling and falling finally the pair find a floor and spent the last weeks consolidating in a 700 pips range, between 1.2390/1.3100. weekly indicators remain exhausted to the downside, and trying to start a shy bullish correction, still far far away from confirmations, while daily charts remain bearish, even attempting to break under an ascendant trend line; we will have to wait for confirmations, yet the bearish trend is pushing hard here. First support will be the 1.2540/60 zone, followed by 1.2470 first keylevel to consider. If breaks under, next supports will be 1.2420 zone, followed by 1.2380, and finally the year minimum @ 1.2330. Regarding resistances, from here we have a really tough zone at 1.2660, followed by 1. 2710, followed by 1.2756 and finally the zone @ 1.2800.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/euro3-300x184.gif
Tags: eurusd
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on December 3, 2008 at 13:08 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Look at this chart: fromthe minimum at 1.1208 to the maximum at 1.2296, I draw a Fibonacci fan, and we can see the pair has rebounded twice in the 50% of it. Those lines, are called speed lines, and have a reason to be with technical applications, will made a post about that later, yet right now, the pair is attempting to break a 4 hours descendant trend line, supported by bullish indicators, not confirming yet, but pointing to. From actual price, resistances will be at 1.2185, the zone @ 1.2210, followed by 1.2253, and finally 1.2300. Regarding supports, watch out for a pullback in smaller time frames to the 1.2140 zone (the mentioned trend line): if the pair manages to stay under, consider 1.2100 zone, followed bu 1.2055, 1.2020 and 1.1960.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/chf-300x181.gif
Tags: Usd/Chf
Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on December 3, 2008 at 12:44 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Market is moving in slow motion, probably waiting for the American session; meanwhile, the pair remains also bearish, capped by a strong resistance zone at 1.4780/90, that would be the point to consider for further upside movements, with next resistances at 1.4820/30, followed by 1.4885, 1.4920 and finally 1.4970 zone, although I cannot see the pair that high today. Most likely, under 1.4710 the pair will try to regain today’s minimum at 1.4665/50 zone, that once broken could send the pair to the strong zone @ 1.4550.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp2-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
What’s going on with oil?
Posted on December 3, 2008 at 12:17 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Being in this forex world, has not just gave me economic rewards, but more greater ones: trough the years, I made FRIENDS from places I didn’t even know exist before. Lot’s of funny stories to tell, but not the idea today, just want to introduce you one of them, that happened to have a blog in here: Tim Salem, mostly known as CVJ here at Fxstreet.com. I really enjoy his views, and sense of humor,and ask him to help me to keep you all updated with what we need to know, here at this market. Being such an incredible person, he quickly accepted, and here we are!He made a more than interesting post about the black gold and it’s correlations with currencies. Take a good reading, following next link: it worth it!
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/2008/12/02/is-godzilla-drinking-our-black-gold/#comment-179
Tks Tim!
Tags: Crude, currencies and oil, Oil
Usd/Jpy breaking lower
Posted on December 3, 2008 at 11:30 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains under bearish pressure, and quoting @ 93.00; with a really tought support at 92.55, under that value the pair will probably quickly run to the downside, first to 92.05 and under that, close to 91.30. Above 93.15, chances are a recovery to at least 93.45, a descendant 4 hours charts. A break above it, will deny previous bearish view, and send the pair to 93.85, andthen 94.20 zone.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/yen1-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on December 3, 2008 at 11:05 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The Eur/Usd is a good example of why taking a look at 4 hours charts is so important at least for me. Yesterday I told you, that despite the downside dominant trend, indicators where turning to the upside. Take a look at them now, they developed the correction, and now the pair seems ready to continue to the downside. Quoting @ 1.2635 first support will be the zone @ 1.2606 and then 1.2580. But only under 1.2540/50 the pair would confirm a more serious downside continuation, with an intermediate support at 1.2510 yet targeting1.2470 asa final zone for today. Resistances from actual price, will again be the tough congestion zone between 1.2660/80, and again only above 1.2690 the pair could start a bullish movement to 1.2720 and then 1.2760.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/euro2-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on December 3, 2008 at 10:20 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everyone, hope you are fine. I truly wasn’t expecting yesterday’s upside corrections of Europeans, but happened. As I always say, good to have a both sides plan, an consider upside or downside strategies. Yet, another day begin, and here we are, again with really bad production indexes all across Europe and England, pushing both majors to the downside, more taking notice that tomorrow both central banks are expected to cut rates. We also have job and industrial reports form the U.S. of big impact, that could harm the American economy, but there we will have to consider if the stocks/currencies relationship remains as commented some days ago, meaning bad data in U.S. represents greenback strength, I’m not sure if that will continue for long, but better wait a few minutes and see.
Youcan check today’s calendar, following this link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be right back! have a great day.
Away
Posted on December 2, 2008 at 13:49 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
I’m having quite a day today and I will be away from the blog. My apologizes for the inconvenience. See you early tomorrow!
Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on December 2, 2008 at 12:14 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Following yesterday’s chart, finally in the European session the pair managed to confirm under the trend line we were seeing, also breaking under a smaller one this last hour. We could see some bullish corrections from here, before a new down leg, with an important resistance at 1.4885, pullback to both broken trend lines. A new candle opening above it, could send the pair first to 1.4910, followed by the congestion zone @ 1.4960 and finally to 1.5020. Regarding supports, under 1.4810 the pair could try to retest today’s minimum at 1.4777, followed by 1.4736 and finally the zone @ 1.4710.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp1-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on December 2, 2008 at 11:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is moving in a descendant channel, and had just attempted to break to the upside, but quickly come back. Quoting around 1.2630, the pair remains under bearish pressure, and contained by this descendant trend line that will need a strong confirmation to be consider broken. As long as the pair remains under the 1.2680/90 zone, chances are to the downside, with supports, from actual price at the zone @ 1.2600, 1.2580 and the congestion zone between 1.2545/60. under this last, the pair will be breaking the floor of the formation, and could easily run to 1.2510 first, and 1.2470 finally. On the other hand, indicators are slowly turning to the upside, yet not clear rallies from here: only above 1.2690 the pair could attempt to reach 1.2720, zone and above it 1.2756.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/euro1-300x184.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on December 2, 2008 at 10:25 in Starting the day by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Hello everybody hope you are fine! late at night in Europe, my afternoon, I was watching CNN and as a NEW, they were officially saying the U.S. has entered into recession in December 2007. I mean one year later publish the new? Something we didn’t know?, and what’s the point in assuming something like that “officially”? We are already talking about a world recession here guys, macroeconomic readings are bad everywhere, oil yesterday dump under 50 dollars a barrel, countries are cutting rates to fight slowdown,stocks fall… You know the picture right? so what’s the point of that statement, is greenback is being favour as is The safe haven? maybe because is time to come to an international balance? Are they playing cards we didn’t see or even understand?. Think about this, and let me know your opinions. Not an interesting day form the fundamental perspective, we have some news, yes, check the time following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I will start with technicals right now. Have a great day!
Gbp/Usd update
Posted on December 1, 2008 at 15:50 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair continues falling, quoting right now @ 1.4860, with CCI reentering the -200 and hitting an ascendant 4 hours line. Could be this today’s floor? probably yet to confirm a correction, we should wait for the pair to confirm with next 4 hours candle opening above the trend line and above actual one close, to mantain the CCI trigger. Under 1.4810/20 zone, previous vision will be denied and the pair will try to test next support at 1.4762.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gbp-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Gbp/Jpy technical view
Posted on December 1, 2008 at 13:20 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Here is where we can see very clear the two currencies actual strength commented earlier. The pair has break to the downside a tight range, and hit the 140.20 zone, first support for today, followed by 139.40 and then, the zone @ 138.80. A confirmation above 140.90 will extend upside correction first, to 141.53, followed by 141.94 and finally 142.40 and finally the zone @ 143.10.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/gy-300x181.gif
Tags: Gbp/Jpy
Usd/Jpy reversing from important support
Posted on December 1, 2008 at 12:18 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Despite breaking an important daily ascendant trend line, the pair has reached a key level at 93.55 and begin a correction; take a look at the CCI in 4 hours charts: it has formed a “V” peak under the-200 level, first sign of a probable upside correction, we have to watch if the CCI continues quite vertical and crosses the level. From actual price, resistances will be at 94.10 followed by 94.38 pullback to the broken line; if the pair recovers above that zone, 94.80 is the next zone to consider. Supports from actual zone, will be the 93.55 mentioned that if broken could trigger good momentum in the pair, first to 93.10 and finally to 92.57.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/yen-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Euro/Usd
Posted on December 1, 2008 at 11:42 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
I’m looking at the pair right now, how hard is the battle between the selling pressure and the support zone the pair has between 1.2625/45; I add a Fibo to my charts, as I see more chances of an upside correction than a continuation for today, as the pair remains oversold in hourly charts, still, only above 1.2690 we could see the pair moving to the upside, first ti the zone @ 1.2710 close to the 23.6% of the last downleg in 4 hours charts. Above that level, next resistance will be @ 1.2750 38.2% of the same level. Regarding supports a break under 1.2625 will probably mean a continuation to the downside, with next supports at 1.2600, and 1.2567.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/12/euro-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on December 1, 2008 at 10:58 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Gbp/Usd is under bearish pressure, falling quickly and approaching the key 1.5000/10 zone, already tested a few minutes ago. If manages to break under, next targets will be at 1.4970, and 1.4932, followed finally by 1.4886. The pair seems quite over sold in smaller charts, so we could expect some corrections to the upside; in that case, resistances will be at 1.5074, 1.5116, the zone @ 1.5165 and finally 1.5234.
Tags: gbpusd
Starting the day
Posted on December 1, 2008 at 10:20 in Starting the day by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. December! another year fly away, and market evolution continues; trading is turning more and more sophisticated day by day, tools and services also, and if you want to stay, better move as quick as it. We are starting quite a week today, with rates decisions in Europe, England, Australia and New Zeland, where all central banks are widely expected to reduce them. The low volume will be more clear from today on and till January, yet the trend remains there. Dollar and Japanese yen remain for far the most strong currencies, and GBP the weaker. We have already had bad news in Europe and England, and that’s pulling both majors down, yet we also have some interesting bad readings expected for the U.S., maybe in the American session we could see some corrections. To check today’s calendar, you can follow next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I’ will be back right away with today’s technicals Have a great day!
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on November 27, 2008 at 12:49 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
the pair has move the range trading a bit higher, and now seems contained above the 1.2800 zone, yet respecting yesterday’s descendant trend line. I mark in blue a probable target zone for today or maybe tomorrow, as that trend line @ 12830 will be the level to watch: If the pair rebounds there, a new bullish upleg will be developing, yet under it, the pair could quickly regain bearish strength. From actual 1.2900 zone, and with no clear definitions, under 1.2862 the pair will try to test the line, and if broken, next targets will be at 1.2790 and 1.2740. Resistances will be at 1.2908, and 1.2942; a confirmation above it will probably approach us to the 1.3000 zone, and leave the chart pointing for further upside moves. Take a look at the 200 EMA: quite flat, loosing bearish steam; too early to say, but it could turn downside up if the pair manages to break above the 1.3110 first longer term resistance.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/euro7-300x182.gif
Tags: eurusd
Swiss Franc and Dollar
Posted on November 27, 2008 at 12:08 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is under corrective selling pressure, despite longer term charts remain bullish. For today, chances are to the downside as long as the pair remains capped under the descendant trend line you can see in this chart @ 1.2030. with the holiday, don’t expect majors triggering anyway, probably we will see some come and go rallies. A 4 hours candle opening above that zone and the line, will turn the pair bullish being next resistances 1.2068 and the zone @ 1.2100. under 1.1980 the pair could go to 1.1960 a more tough support zone, and if this last is broken then we will have a more interesting bearish continuation, to 1.1913 and finally the zone @1.1860
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/chf3-300x182.gif
Tags: Usd/Chf
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on November 27, 2008 at 11:20 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Despite yesterday’s low, the pair is recovering quickly, testing the 1.5500 zone, and tending higher. Yet only above it, the pair could run first to 1.5535 is the first resistance zone to consider, followed by 1.5560/70 a congestion zone above which we have 1.5600 and then 1.5670. Regarding supports, 1.5445 will be the first to consider, followed by1.5385, 1.5310 and finally the zone between 1.5250/70.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp8-300x182.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 27, 2008 at 10:14 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everyone, hope you are fine! After yesterday’s last post, lights went out here for almost 11 hours, as an electric company central blows. Not your problem sure but my apologizes for not being here as promised. Anyway, as expected and despite the bad news, greenback managed to recover ground, only to bounce back to the downside in Asian and early European session. Further looses remain contained there, but not for much. We will see each pair shape in a while. Today we have a holiday in the U.S. Thanksgiving, so expect lower volumes than usual, even tomorrow, and so, high volatility moves across the board. Japanese yen is playing it’s own game: the currency continue appreciating against most rivals, and pointing to a interesting break trough. the only fundamental issue we have for today that could affect the market will be a speech from Mr Jean Claude Trichet, ECB president, at 10:30 am, East Time. I will start with technicals right now.
Have a great day!
U.S. Numbers
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 13:49 in News, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
This are the numbers released, readings are Actual, Expected and Previous.
Unemployment Claims 529K 534K 543K
Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Durable Goods Orders m/m -6.2% -2.8% -0.2%
Durable Goods Orders m/m -4.4% -1.4% -2.3%
Personal Spending m/m -1.0% -1.0% -0.3%
Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
In general bad readings in Durable Orders and despite better than expected unemployment claims, still a high number, that represents recession in the country. Inflation under expectations, no chances of rates hikes there.Majors react quite positive in this first spike, still contained under some resistances zones, yet in 45 minutes we have more info, and stocks openning. There we will have defined today’s definition. Just a short time wait and see!
Tags: dollar, News in the U.S.
News in the U.S. in the next hours
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 13:19 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
We have a wave of economic reports in the next couple of hours, all of them pointing to come out negative. You can think, “well in that case, dollar will fall” but see what has been going on lately: bad news in the U.S. mean stocks falling heavily, and with them,Euro and Gbp as risk aversion growths and traders leave those currencies a side, and go to the dollar. So bad news in the U.S. are meaning, lately, dollar strength against Europeans mostly! So, be careful, watch for technical levels breaks, and give each pair a couple of 15 minutes candles to confirm where can they go for the rest of the American session. I will be attached to the blog today, or at least try to!
Tags: Usd
Usd/Jpy for the rest of the day
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 12:58 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains also under selling pressure, unable to regain ground despite any stocks movements. From actual price, 94.92 will be the first support zone to consider, followed by 94.40 and finally the zone @ 94.10 an ascendant daily trend line. Resistances from actual price will be 95.30, the zone @ 95.60 and finally 96.00.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/yen8-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 12:06 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
The pair has broke above the key zone @ 1.5270, the key level mentined in previous post, triggering the expected rally and even surpassing the 1.5480 resistance zone, I suggested yesterday. Right now is the pair is under some selling pressure, yet more interesting rallies will be triggered only under the 1.5270 zone, first support for today, followed by 1.5240 and then 1.5188. indicatorsalso not clear at the moment, not defining a clear direction, yet above 1.5390 we could see some more bullish movements first to 1.5480, followed by 1.5525 and finally the zone @ 1.5600
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp7-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 11:14 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd has reached the 1.3080 yesterday a few pips away for the more important zone @ 1.3110, before starting a come back. Anyway, 4 hours charts seem pretty interesting today, with a new continuation figure developing. In one hand we have indicators are pointing to the downside, and the candle has just open under the 200 EMA (violet in this chart) that usually acts as a dynamic resistance/support in the pair. On the other hand, we have a small triangle that should be broken in the next two candles to the upside, to confirm the bullish continuation, supported by the 20 SMA (red in the chart) clearly bullish. So under 1.2930, first support for today, and ascendant trend line of the triangle, the pair will probably turn bearish for the next hours, and supports from there will be 1.2906, 1.2857 and finally the zone @ 1.2830. To the upside, both the 200 EMA and the descendant trend line are the key levels to watch: above 1.3000/3010 the pair could turn bullish again with 1.3040, 1.3080 and 1.3110 as today’s resistances.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eu2-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 9:39 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you are fine!. Dollar continues falling across the board, as we were commenting here since Monday: technically, the consolidation mode range we have been seen last 2 weeks pre announce so, and here it is; will this continue? I don’t thing so for the longer term, and i will see each major cross one by one; If we talk about fundamentals, we hadn’t see one decent reading anywhere, and at this very moment, the U.K. GDP revision is being released, showing the sharpest drop since 1995, but we are almost used to bad news all along the world. Aren’t we?. Again the balance of strength will be the key factor that will decide majors destiny, being Japanese Yen the most strong currency at the moment. But wait! some optimism has just returned to trading desks: stocks are rising (far far away from the happy levels we had months ago) the FED has come to the rescue again, creating new lending facilities and saving Citigroup; on the whole, this means the downside corrective rally of greenback could last a bit longer. Let’s see if we could determinate from a technical perspective, if this could stendand till where. Busy day with lots of news, in the U.S. check the release hours following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be back in a few minutes! have a great day.
Euro and Gbp next target zones
Posted on November 25, 2008 at 14:23 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Quickly running up, next target zone for this pairs and giving probable interesting rebounds are for Euro/Usd 1.3115, and for Gbp/Usd 1.5480. Corrective movements form actual prices to the downside, should be small and short lived.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd
Eur/Usd 30 minutes chart and flag
Posted on November 25, 2008 at 13:40 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
After U.S bad data and with majors following trend, the pair is breaking above the flag we were seeing in 4 hours charts: give the pair a couple of minutes, should open next candle above this line, and probably complete a pullback before continuing to the upside, yet, if passes above yesterday’s maximum, we also could see the upside move without pullback. Any case, target will be 1.3000 zone
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/euro30-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
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Posted on November 25, 2008 at 11:22 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Quite a busy day for me, sorry for the delay! Let’s take a look at this pair and see where is going to. The pair remains bullish as long as stays above the 1.2830 zone, and forming a flag in 4 hours charts. Far from the roof, a break above it will probably mean a movement equal to the pole to the upside (of about 400 pips) yet we are far. I still see the pair with bullish strength, with a first resistance at 1.2880 from here, above which the pair will try to retest the 1.2910730 congestion zone, also the roof of the flag, so above that point we could see more bullish triggers here. Regarding supports, under 1.2820/30 the pair could retest the 1.2790, break to the downside and destroy the figure, with next supports at 1.2735 and finally the zone @ 1.2680.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/euro6-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 25, 2008 at 10:15 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody welcome to another day in forex market. Pretty good start of the week yesterday, with Europeans behaving technical, and Japanese yen quite trickyto me, Anyway a new day has started, and despite here is quite early, I’m late for the European market, so after this welcome, and the classic link to news, I will start posting soon as I can today’s technical view.
Have a great day!
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Swiss Franc leading the way
Posted on November 24, 2008 at 15:00 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Chf is fighting the 4 hours ascendant channel base, and attempting to break lower: turn the 4 hours chart into 1 hour one. A candle opening under 1.2040, will probably trigger more selling pressure there, as the zone between 1.2040/55 seems to be a really tough support. Besides, some optimism is turning stocks higher, although nothing is defined yet there. Above 1.2095 the bearish lost strength at least for today.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/chf41-300x181.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/chf11-300x181.gif
Tags: Chf, Usd
Euro and Gbp update
Posted on November 24, 2008 at 13:29 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Nice response from Eur/Usd, the pair is running high and despite being overbought in short term charts, the upside continue exposed: above actual maximum expect the pair to come close to the 1.2830/40 zone, where the pair should offer a more interesting short term rebound, if not happens from here. Gbp on the other hand seems unable to run away from 1.5000 zone. Watch the 1.5065 zone level there. In about an hour, the U.S. stocks market will open, and the trend there, will probably decide the destiny of this two majors for the American session.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd
Gbp/Usd for the next hours
Posted on November 24, 2008 at 12:29 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
A slow recovery here, the pair seems slightly bullish yet contained by a strong barrier zone between 1.5065/90. Only a confirmation above that values could send the pair to the upside with some strength,first, to 1.5210 and finally 1.5270. Only under 1.4960 the pair could return to 1.4910, followed by 1.4845, 1.4760 and finally the zone @ 1.4710/20. Unless we see some action during the American session, the pair could remain trapped in the range between 1.4845/1.5065, more than likely for today.
A side note: looking at 4 hours charts, we can see kind of a double floor, slightly bullish, and with the neck line @ 1.5265: a break above this point will be needed to confirm more interesting bullish movements in the pair, for the next couple of days.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp6-300x181.gif
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Tags: Add new tag, gbpusd
Usd/Jpy heading downside?
Posted on November 24, 2008 at 11:39 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains bearish in bigger charts, contained by the 95.50/60 zone, first resistance for today, and although I cannot see the pair rising much more higher than that, next resistance will be at 95.95, the descendant trend line that’s guiding the movement, probable tops for today. Regarding supports, the pair has the zone @ 94.94/95.97 as the first one to consider, followed again by the 94.50/60 zone and finally 94.26.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/yen7-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on November 24, 2008 at 10:56 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Contained in range, the pair seems slightly bullish for today, although it has a tough congestion zone @ 1.2680 that is making things difficult to the upside, yet above 1.2690 the pair could also extend close to 1.2715,(really an ugly zone with no clear rallies there) the daily descendant trend line you can see in the following chart.Only a confirmation above that line will make things clearer to the upside, with next resistances at 1.2750, 1.2795/1.2810 and finally 1.2840. Supports today will be at 1.2640, followed by 1.2600 and finally the zone @ 1.2550.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/euro5-300x184.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 24, 2008 at 10:00 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you are fine! The last week of November is here, and things remain the same: global fears of recession continue rising, and equity markets to tumble, yet greenback strengthening has braked: we are seeing some consolidation mostly against Europeans, and 2 factors maybe in play, that could signal that a bottom is close: one is the Citigroup tumbling, reminding players things are quite complicated in the States too; the other is Gold, that is recovering ground pretty fast, telling us where major investors confidence is, and remember when commodities rise, usually means dollar is close to lose ground. A different story cames from Crude that fell from 150 to 50 dollars in a few weeks. Will 50 also be a floor there? can oil start to recover? more unlikely at the moment, but something we certainly need to check. the other overall winner, Japanese Yen seems to be ready to take the first place: remember that by this time of the year, the repatriation begins till February / Mach, and despite rumours of intervention, we will probably see the currency retesting the 90,00 zone soon.
Regarding news for today, you can see them following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be right back with some technicals for today. Have a great trading day!
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Posted on November 21, 2008 at 11:18 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is slightly bullish in 4 hours charts, yet with no signs of breaking to the upside, just in continuing the lateralization: with a first resistance at 1.2646, above this point the pair could came close to 1.2700, and above this to the most important zone @ 1.2740. Regarding supports, under 1.2588 we have the 1.2550 zone, followed by 1.2510 and finally the key level at 1.2470.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/euro3-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 21, 2008 at 10:55 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you are fine! Quite an interesting journey yesterday, with majors behaving technically and dollar and yen the overall winners of the day, after the Dow Jones again under the 7900 level mentioned yesterday. However the Asian session and during the European session also, we see majors recovering ground back again the ranges of these last days.However, early reports in the euro zone came out lower than expected and right now, rumours of a rate cut in the euro zone are growing fast. From a technical perspective, actual corrections have reached (again) key points that contain the short term trend, yet we will see each pair on it’s own in a few minutes.
For the rest of the day, we have only some speeches from Trichet (from ECB) at 8.00 and Plosser (from the FOMC) AT 12.15.
Have a great day!
Dow jones and currency markets
Posted on November 20, 2008 at 14:38 in News, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Dow Jones industrial Average could play a primary rol today: falling apart, is only 30 points of the minimum reached at 7900 basis points a few days ago.If the Index falls under that level, we could see some “pannic selling” across the board, with Dollar to be the overall winner, followed by japanese Yen.
Tags: Currencies, dollar
Usd/Chf testing the key level
Posted on November 20, 2008 at 13:39 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is in the roof of the 4 hours channel, and quite over bought in 15 minutes charts. Should come back quickly to at least the zone @ 1.2180 before continuing to the upside. Above actual maximum, the comeback lose expectations and the pair will start a new strong up leg.
Tags: Usd/Chf
Eur/Chf technical perspective
Posted on November 20, 2008 at 13:25 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
With Swiss Franc falling after the rate cut, this is an interesting pair to analyze today: as is moving along with Euro against dollar, this pair has reached the 1.5300 level quickly and remains bullish at the moment: next resistances will be at 1.5331, and the key zone @ 1.5360; above this last, daily charts suggest a more interesting upside continuation, first to the zone @ 1.5375, followed by 1.5420 and finally 1.5458 and finally 1.5516. Supports from actual price will be at 1.5250, 1.5200 and finally the zone @ 1.5148.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/swis-300x181.gif
Tags: Eur/Chf
Surprise SNB Rate cut
Posted on November 20, 2008 at 12:58 in News, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
As mentioned on previous post, the Swiss National Bank surprised with a really aggressive 100 basis point cut of the Libor rate. Sending Swiss Franc down against major rivals, particularly against American Dollar, almost at 2 years low, and Euro, where we saw an historical minimum a few weeks ago. the underlying intention of this cut, is clearly pointing to fight recession, that continues spreading it’s wings above all Europe. The SNB also offered additional funds in the money market to increase liquidity after the cut. Regarding Usd/Chf, the pair is addressing to the mentioned key 1.2210 zone, while Eur/Chf, quoting right now @ 1.5290, needs to clearly break above the 1.5360 zone to continue the upside movements in the longer term. I will add a post about the pair in the next minutes.
Tags: Eur/Chf, Libor rates, Usd/Chf
Usd/Chf close to second channel roof
Posted on November 20, 2008 at 12:26 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Swiss Franc is falling after the Libor rate was cut by 1 basic point, and is pretty much close to 1.2205, the roof of the smaller channel we have been seeing these days: looking at weekly charts, we also have many important maximums and minimums @ 1.2210. Despite the pair is clearly bullish and above the daily channel roof (meaning we will see the pair continuing t o the upside in the longer term), if 1.2200 is reached, we could see some descent downwards rebound from there, in the shorter term.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/chf2-300x181.gif
Tags: Usd/Chf
Gbp/Usd breaking lower
Posted on November 20, 2008 at 11:51 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is ready to fall sharply: quoting @ 1.4830, under today’s minimum at 1.4809 the pair has a clear way to the key support level around 1.4770: if passes under this last, we will see a good bearish momentum triggered, with next supports at 1.4712, and intermediate support at 1.4684, and then and more likely, 1.4655. To the upside, 1.4890/1.4900 will be the first resistance to consider, followed by 1.4970, 1.5050 and finally the zone @ 1.5100.
Tags: gbpusd
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Posted on November 19, 2008 at 14:56 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The pair is not only oversold in smaller charts and offered a quick rebound in the base of the channel, also a tough congestion zone. Market is moving more quickly than my hands here, but as long as the minimum remains unbroken, we could see some more short term bullish there.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/chf15-300x181.gif
Euro ans Gbp update
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 14:22 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Euro is passing the resistance @ 1.2740 and Gbp @ 1.5180, and as long as that zones hold, both can continue to the upside, with Gbp final target at 1.5380 with and intermediate resistance at 1.5254. Euro has next resistances at 1.2790/1.2800, and then 1.2830. Expect some corrections in the immediate short term if the first values mentioned don’t hold.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd
Bad news in the U.S. II
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 14:10 in News, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Europeans, Euro, Gbp and Chf, are attemping to move higher. Euro above 1.2665, Gbp to the 1.5090 and then to 1.5130 and Swiss Franc could reach the 1.2000 quickly
Tags: Dolar, News, Trend
Bad data in the U.S.
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 13:34 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
U.S. housing starts tumble to record low, while consumer prices fall by more in 61 years. Could this hit dollar and take us out of actual ranges? Let’s see this first 15 minutes reaction to decide if so. But remember, hard to see fundamentals change dominant trend for long!
Tags: dollar, News
Usd/Chf channels update
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 13:20 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Despite the slow movements the market presents, this particular pair remains bullish, and after already testing it, close to the roof of the daily bigger channel we have been talking about, today @ 1.2080. A confirmation above today’s maximum will by next close resistance at 1.2105/10 yet above this, we have a quite clear way up to 1.2160/80 roof of the minor channel also a congestion zone. But 4 hours charts are turning to the downside, and is not clear the upside continuation for today: under 1.2030, next supports will be at 1.1989, the zone @ 1.1960 and finally 1.1910.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/chfd-300x181.gif Daily chart
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/chf4-300x181.gif 4 hours chart
Tags: Usd/Chf
Gbp/Usd key points
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 12:42 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
During Asian trading the pair passed to the downside the 1.4970 zone and reached almost 1.4900 before rebounding to the upside strongly, suggesting we could probably see more bullish corrections. However, take a look at the following chart: we have 3 recent maximums @ 1.5090, and the pair is having some hard time to break clearly above, and more, we have that big descendant trend line at 1.5130 that could contain the upside correction at least in the short term. A 4 hours or better daily candle opening above it, could send the pair first, to the zone @ 1.5160/80 but better to 1.5280 zone, a more strong resistance zone. If the pair pass under 1.5030/40 zone, 1.4970 will be exposed, with next supports at 1.4910, and 1.4840 then.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp5-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Gbp update and the change in speed
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 11:42 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
While Euro remains quite flat, Gbp is gaining some (temporarily for me) ground, so this pair continues correcting to the downside after the historical maximum: the pair continues unable to rise above the 38.2% of the Fibonacci rally of the last upleg, and attempting to test the 61.8% that could be a key level for further moves: under 0.8338, the pair has practically no support until the 0.8260 zone, of intermediate strength, yet more strong and important will be the 0.8200: under this last, the pair could begging a more important downside movement, with a first objective in the zone @ 0.8145. Resistances will be the 0.8400/10 zone (also a descendant trend line, and above this, the pair could regain ground to the key 0.8460/70 level; again above this level, the pair will find next resistances at 0.8514/20, followed by 0.8552 and finally the zone @ 0.8586, above which, the historical maximum could be retested, denying further corrections in the short term.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eugb-300x181.gif
Tags: Eur/Gbp
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 10:47 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Well, quite a range we have here, although I see the pair still pretty bearish in bigger charts. The 4 hours descendant trend line that you see in the chart, has been well respected by the pair, and today, is in the congestion and maximum’s zone we have @1.2670; indicatorss are quite flat, not giving any clear signal yet price remains also under the20 SMA, again @ the mentioned zone. Above 1.2680, we could see the pair regain some bullish strength to 1.2700/10, and from there to 1.2745, and i can’t see it much more up today. Regarding supports, these last days thepair has found a lot of trouble to break clearly under 1.2590/2600; under this zone, 1.2555 could be a probable target, with next support at 1.2510 and then 1.2470, that should be pass trough to see the pair gain bearish momentum.
Just a side note: When i call for a break, that doesn’t mean the pair has to pass a resistance or support for a couple or pips: remember I always talk about zones, and not exact points, because we need some confirmations to consider a point broken. I will made may next educative post of how we could filter or consider a line broken.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eur1-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
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Posted on November 18, 2008 at 15:31 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is quite contained today, moving in a small range, between 1.4980 and 1.5040; the previous resistance grey zone has turned into a support, but aslong as the pair remains under 1.5040, the upside seems pretty hard: Above that value, we have 1.5085 and from there, no much important resistance to the upside till the zone between 1.5160/80. Under 1.4970 next supports will be at 1.4920, 1.4840 and finally the zone @ 1.4750.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp4-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Some more technical education
Posted on November 18, 2008 at 13:25 in Technical Education by Valeria Bednarik6 Comments »
While majors decide where to go, maybe you like to read some more technical basic concepts. Hope you enjoy!
As many of you have read before, Forex is the most amazing and popular electronic financial market: It moves 1.5 trillion dollars a day, what NY Stocks market moves in a year. A 24 hours a day, 7 days a week market, with high volatility and liquidity, and with a plus advantage: leverage. A market where you can choose, to go bull or bear with no cost: no extra premiums to pay, no additional options. Seems pretty much convenient right?
Well let me tell you the disadvantages before I continue: high volatility, liquidity, leverage. Yes, just the same: Advantages are Disadvantages too. All these things can play against you as well as for you, with an extra: Brokers. Most retail traders must use a broker, who will be the counterpart in all transactions as there is no way to deal directly in the interbank market. And, as brokers are market makers, they can widen spread, or even refuse to trade during particular moments or conditions.
So, why are we here? What makes Forex so attractive, so popular? Where is the DIFFERENCE? A non written rule says only 10 % of Forex traders are successful, against the 90 % that blow accounts.
I remember when I completed my technical course, my Master telling me: now you’re ready, you have all the tools you need, the tools most traders don’t have: you have technical knowledge, psychological training, and effective money management rules you can and know should apply. Took me pretty much a year to understand his words, but there is the difference: believe it or not, the “90 % losers” trade without using technical analysis, without a working plan, without nothing but the ambition to become rich in a pretty short term. Most Forex traders, trade by impulse following a hunch more than a trend. Using guts instead of indicators or oscillators.
Over the years I have been here, I also discover another difference: most traders spend there time looking for The System, the unique, the perfect one, of course one developed by someone else, instead of even trying to study two or three simple indicators; of course as soon as a systems gives a bad entry, they discard it, and jump into another: the cycles repeats, and there goes their money.
One last word before diving in technical: remember here there is another important difference with other financial markets: time. For Forex traders, short term refers from minutes, to a few hours. Traders can work and profit with 4 hours, 1 hour or even 30 minutes charts.
A simple an effective way to start with technical Forex trading is using Moving Averages: as you now, a Moving Average is a trend direction indicator that calculate a simple arithmetic average of prices for a specified period, showing the average value of the price of a currency over a set of value. There are different types of MA: we use SMA for simple moving averages and EMA for exponential ones. There are others kinds of MA, (smoothed, linear weighted, etc) but we will limit this short study to the firsts ones, as they are the most used.
The SMA: Calculates the average of the price by adding the prices of the specified period together, and then divides it by the number of the prices.
SMA = Sum of “x” periods /X
Where x represent a certain number (could be almost any one from 2 to 500 depending of how many historical information your charts include); besides, many chats allows to select a chosen set to apply the calculation: Open, close, high, low, median or typical price.
The EMA, smoothes the MA by adding to the current closing price, the previous value and giving the last prices more weighted value. This type of MA reacts faster to recent price changes than SMA.
Different ways to trade with MA
There are many different methods and settings of Moving Averages a trader can use; let’s see two basic methods, with some of the common settings, useful for intraday trading, remembering that MA work better in a trend market and they are not reliable in sideways ones.
A basic trading system is to use a MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT. In this method, you have to draw a MA in any selected chart. Let’s see an example in a 1 hour chart of EUR/USD. I used a SMA of 20 periods (blue). When the price crosses the Moving Average down-up and there’s a new candle opening above the Moving Average indicator we buy; and when the price crosses the Moving Average up-down and there’s a new candle opening below the Moving Average indicator we sell. Your exit signal will be the price crossing the MA on the other way.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eu1-300x181.gif
But this is not as simple as it seems, and not reliable as we need: a Moving Average Breakout must be combined with an indicator to act as filter; something that reinforce the signal, and increase the probabilities of a good trade; the best choices in this case, will be Momentum or Stochastic Oscillator. Any of these two arithmetical oscillators will act as a confirmation of the trade.
Another and off course better way to trade MA, is using MOVING AVERAGES CROSSES. Using this system, you can work with at least two MA, although some traders prefer using three. The first one will be set with a small period (Fast Moving Average) the second one will be set with an intermediate number of periods and the third with a bigger number of them (Slow Moving Average). Let’s see an example using SMA of 4, 9 and 18 periods in a 4 hours USD/JPY chart:
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/ye4-300x181.gif
The light green is a 4 periods MA, the medium green represents 9 periods, and the dark green one, is for 18 periods. See how, when 4 MA crosses 9 MA and then, both of them crosses 18 MA, and you have a good trigger. The 4 periods line crossing the 9 one, is the first advice you have; this signal gets its confirmation when both, 4 and 9 cross 18. Your exit will take place when the slow MA turns back crossing 9 into the other way.
This is a quite reliable and simple system when market moves in trend; besides there are lots of combinations that can be used, using MA or EMA: as an example, a good combination with EMA is 5, 13 and 34. And as in the first case, this system would become even better if you combine it with any oscillator to act as filter.
Anyway, the question here is not only the MA or EMA system selected; this will depend also on the time frame you choose to work: a signal in a 30 minutes chart will not be as strong as one in a 4 hours chart. Also, the “life” of a trade, will depend on two main factors: first of all the continuity of the signal: as long as the conditions that gave the into the market signal remains the same, the trade is valid; as soon as any of this conditions gets lost, you are getting advise to close your trade. Second, we consider a fact that any signal is valid for the next four candles; so if you are trading using a 30 minutes chart, your signal will be valid for the next two hours. After that time, we consider the trade should be completed; if not, then again, you must close your position, as soon as any condition even start to turn.
As one of the main characteristics of the Forex market is volatility traders are force to use a tool that many dislike, but that is much more useful than you can imagine: stop losses orders. I understand is really hard to assume a lost; I don’t understand why many people risk all their capital in a single trade, when Forex gives lots of opportunities a day. Sure, you will lose some times. But as long as you trade using the right tools, loses are just another step in the way. Understanding the delicate balance of risk management is the secret of success in here. Get rid of your pride, find a simple system you like and follow these rules; you will probably close more profitable trades than you can imagine.
Tags: Technical Education, using moving averages
Usd/Jpy in the short term
Posted on November 18, 2008 at 12:16 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is tending bearish, and has just attempt again to break under the 95.95 key level: if breaks under, the pair could run to the 95.50 zone, but today things are going really slow, so don’t expect a quick movement. Over sold in small charts (15 minutes) failure to confirm under the mentioned support, could send the pair again to 96.40. See this 1 hour chart, with the pair inside yesterday’s triangle.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/yen6-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on November 18, 2008 at 11:48 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Not much change from yesterday, the pair remains under selling pressure and so, bearish in bigger charts, yet moving sideways in 4 hours charts, with a strong support/congestion zone between 1.2580/1.2600 that’s holding the downside. Under that, we have supports at 1.2540 and finally the tough 1.2500/10. To the upside, as long as the pair holds here, we could see some bullish movements, with resistances at 1.2665/85, the zone @ 1.2740 and finally the descendant daily trend line at 1.2780.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eur-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Euro/Gbp following technicals
Posted on November 18, 2008 at 10:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
After yesterday post, the pair reached in next candle the proposed first target in the zone @ 0.8400/10, yet remained under the 38.2% and continue moving slowly to the downside. Remember this is a quite slowmo pair, with some intraday exceptions. Today, and after almost reached the 6.8% of the Fibonacci rally, thepair recover the upside, and with indicators turning downside up, actual movement could easily extend first, to the zone @ 0.8470 above which the pair could return to 0.8514/20, followed by 0.8552 and finally the zone @ 0.8586. Supports also remain as yesterday at 0.8400/10, 0.8375 and finally 0.8340; yet considering that the 61.8% hasn´t been broken, we could consider yesterday’s movement a correction, that precede a trend continuation: watch up for next level to be broken and signal so.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eug-300x184.gif
Tags: Eur/Gbp
Starting the day
Posted on November 18, 2008 at 8:23 in Starting the day by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. Early start today, as we have plenty of fundamental news, related with inflation and growth particularly in England and the U.S.: while is expected to ease in the first, the PPI is expected to rise in America; would this be the beginning of a turn in U.S. rate policy? Just a small light at the end of the tunnel, but we should consider it. Not today and not next month (statistically, December is a dollar negative month), and much more water should run under the bridge, but the facts are there to be considered: the right time to take them into account will come. Anyway, I’m just speculating.
Today’s news and the release time could be seen following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I’ll be back in a few minutes with todaytechnicals. Have a great day!
Usd/Jpy holding the downside
Posted on November 17, 2008 at 15:39 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Not the most clear pair for me today, Japanese yen has been moving in a quite tight range for the past 6 hours, between 96.30 and 96.90. Looking at 4 hours charts, the pair is forming a triangle, with the base at 95.90, so maybe we should consider that the last probable support for today, if the pair manages to move under 96.30. at actual price, only above 96.95 the pair could try to reach the descendant trend line at 97.27. A break above that line, could send the pair first to the zone @ 97.50 and finally to the most important resistance zone @ 98.10. Consider US stocks are falling and that’s helping to pressure the pair to the downside at the moment, but despite the 190 point lost there, this pair is managing to hold, so, changes are bigger of a break to the upside.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/yen5-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Gpb for the next hours
Posted on November 17, 2008 at 14:05 in Short-Term Analysis, Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Things are changing and while Gbp (against Usd dollar) is attempting to break higher, the Euro remains under selling pressure, and clearly seen in the Eur/Gbp. Last week the pair reached the proposed level @ the 138.2% of an inverted Fibonacci, and being highly over bought, begin a correction that right now, seems ready to continue to the downside: in 4 hours charts, the pair is under the 38.2% of this last 2 days upside run. with a first support0.8437, under that level the correction could extend first to 0.8400/10, with next supports at 0.8375 and finally 0.8340, close to the 61.8% of the mentioned rally. If the pair reaches that level, we will have to wait and see if the dominant ascendant trend will be enough to provide a bullish rebound, or if a clear breakthrough will preannounce further falls. If actual candle fails to the downside and manage to close above the 0.8470 level, we could see the pair regain the uptrend, and continue first to 0.8514/20, followed by 0.8552 and finally the zone @ 0.8586.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eg-300x181.gif
Tags: Eur/Gbp
Usd/Chf following channels
Posted on November 17, 2008 at 12:55 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Some days ago, I posted some daily charts analysis for the pair (you can see it in the next link http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2008/11/11/swiss-franc-daily-charts/) and is time to update the pair: see how inside that daily channel, the pair is moving inside another one, in 4 hours charts, and find support in the 20 SMA ( red in my charts) that by the way, is clearly bullish; with an important congestion zone between 1.1986/1.2007, above this last the pair wil attempt to reach the top of both channels in the 1.2060 zone. Remember, as long as time goes by the target will move higher, so 1.2082, a previous resistance zone, could also be reached this next days. supports today will be at 1.1940, followed by the zone @ 1.1890, the base of the 4 hours ascendant channel. A 4 hours candle opening under it, could send the pair lower with next supports at 1.1848 and finally the zone @ 1.1820.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/chf1-300x181.gif
Tags: Usd/Chf
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Posted on November 17, 2008 at 12:18 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Gbp/Usd is trapped in range, yet tending bullish in 4 hours charts: not yet confirming, above the 1.4965 congestion zone and first resistance for today, the pair will probably try to test the 1.5000 zone, and once broken, the pair will find it’s way pretty clear to the upside, with next resistances at 1.5070, 1.5180 and finally 1.5270 zone. Supports today will be at 1.4840, 1.4750, the zone @ 1.4660 and finally 1.4570.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp3-300x184.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on November 17, 2008 at 11:39 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/Usd remains bearish in bigger charts, although we see divergences with indicators in 4 hours charts: quoting right now @ 1.2645, only under 1.2610 the pair could continue to the downside, with next supports at 1.2560/70, and then 1.2526, followed finally by the tough zone @ 1.2470. To the upside, above 1.2685 the pair will try to regain the zone @ 1.2715 followed by 1.2748 and finally the descendant daily trens line, at 1.2806.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/euro2-300x184.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 17, 2008 at 11:02 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you are fine. A new week starts, and maybe two things to consider: Japan also fell into recession, as the third quater GDP shrank, and there is no expectations of improvement in the next months; the world leaders metduring the weekend yet failed to deliver some relief for the financial markets, although they aimed to sooth volatile markets and calm consumers’ worries, without offering specific policy responses: ladies and gentlemen, we are almost officially facing a global recession. I could spend some time here and try to analyze the root and probable consequences with you, but I guess I made my point about that a few weeks ago, and to tell you the true, as there’s no much I can do to solve it, I prefer to use my time in something more profitable. But if I intent to trade the forex market, better be to know where I’m standing. The other thing to consider, is that despite is not as in September or October, volatility is still here, probably due to low liquidity; although I believe things are pointing to normalcy, don’texpect it to be like that in the short term. We will still have some more of this low liquidity/ high volatility stuff, as there are a lot of logical fears of putting too much money into the market. So, knowing this, let’s start the week!
Yo can check today’s fundamentals following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I’ll be back in afew minutes, with today technicals. Have a great day!
Away from office
Posted on November 14, 2008 at 13:29 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
We have a bunch of fundamentals in a few minutes,but I won’t be able to be here in the next hours, so this is just a note, to tell you about it. If I could make it back in a couple of hours, I will try to post something else. if not, have a great weekend and see you on Monday!
Usd/Jpy in the next hours
Posted on November 14, 2008 at 12:52 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains under bearish pressure, and has just tested an important support zone a @ 96.30; with indicators pointing to the downside, and if the pair pass recent minimum at 96.26, we could see more bearish from there with next supports at 95.82, followed by 95.40 and finally the zone @ 94.90/95.10. To the upside, we have some free space between 96.80 and the tough zone at 97.10, followed by a congestion zone between 97.38/50, and above this last, 98.00
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/yen4-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on November 14, 2008 at 11:07 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
One of the things that get’s me intoforex market is that you can never get bored here. Always some different pair or time frame to look. Instead of the classic 4 hours charts, today I will try to follow, at least for the next hours, this 30 minutes chart you can see after the explanation: the pair has made a straight 400 pips rally late yesterday in the American session, and beginning a downside corrective rally, contained in a small channel that we could consider a flag. quoting @ 1.2700 and if remains here, just above the 38.2% of the rally, we could expect the pair to move upwards to the roof of that channel, @ 1.2740/50, and probably rebound there, as major bearish trend continues. However a break and confirmation above it, will confirm the figure, and should trigger some more bullish rally, first to the zone around 1.2790 and finally to 1.2854, today maximum and also a daily descendant trend line. On the other hand, under 1.2684 the pair will try to reach the base of the figure, at 1.2635 at the moment. If passes trough, the figure should not be taken into count, and the pair will find next supports at 1.2597, 1.2526 and finally the strong 1.2470. Anyway, 4 hours indicators are pointing to the downside, so I will try to find entry points following that direction.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eu-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 14, 2008 at 10:24 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. European corrected against greenback yesterday, after hitting intraday lows, (look at Gbp or Chf) helped by some dissapointing commnents the Treasyre Secretary Paulson made; however, let’s not forget recession is over the U.K. and extending it’s wings to all Europe. Market does not move straight never, and maybe this scary movements make some of us doubt, others take their chances in rebounds, but as long as we have a trading plan, I guess we, the small players if fits, will remain ok. Not more talking today let’s go to what matters: I will start posting technical points in a few minutes, you can check today fundamental releases following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Have a great day!
Eur/Usd how far the correction could extend?
Posted on November 13, 2008 at 20:30 in Short-Term Analysis, Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair begin a sudden correction to the upside, and is quoting right now at 1.2740. The correction has plenty of room to the upside, and if the up trend continues, above 1.2766 the pair could reach the 1.2800 level quickly, yet a more long term correction could be triggered only above 1.2880 zone, a daily descendant trend line. Small charts are over sold, so we could see some corrections in 15 or 30 minutes charts, yet as long as the pair remains above the 1.2710/30 zone, chances to the upside grow.
Tags: eurusd
Eur/Gbp update
Posted on November 13, 2008 at 16:45 in Short-Term Analysis, Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Why I choose to talk about this pair today? Because Gbp is probably the weaker currency these days, and is falling against all other majors, including the Euro, although both pair usually move the same way. I was commenting the pair wasclearly bullish, but with a resistance @ 0.8450/75, and here we are, with the pair fighting that zone of monthly maximums back to 1995/96 when the Euro was not the Euro, just a basket of currencies, meaning we have an all time high in the pair, since Euro begin to circulate back in 2002. Is the pair over bought? no doubts. Can we see some falls? just corrections! from a technical perspective, the pair remains bullish in daily and weekly time frames, and while the Euro seems ready for an upside correction, Gbp is unable to find a bottom. From actual price, we could see the pair correcting a bit to downside, only to take aims to continue to 0.8580 first, and then to the 0.8670 zone, mentioned earlier today.
Tags: Eur/Gbp
Trading the trend and breaks
Posted on November 13, 2008 at 15:48 in Technical Education by Valeria Bednarik6 Comments »
I always post here, that we should wait for breaks, or confirmations. Breaks of key levels of support and resistance, or trend lines, so I will tell you the basic rules to trade with trend lines, hope you enjoy some more of this basic education tips!
As you may know, we always say that is better to trade following trend. This means in a bullish market we must buy to take profits by selling. Of course we can trade against the trend in fact I do it all the time, but we must be aware that against trend, movements will have less strength and probably be shorter, meaning the number of pips accomplished will be less that following the trend.
But of course, while a trend line remains unbroken the market trend is consider still valid. If we are working with daily charts, (the example is valid for any time frame of course) and during that session price pass the line but then close above it we shouldn’t consider that a break and we will wait for a confirmation. When the session close under an ascendant trend line, we are on our way: now, we will have to add a filter, like as example, the percent meaning, ok, line is break, but still we will have to wait until that break reaches the xx %; or time filters, like wait till at least one more session close under the line. These kind of filters are subjective and so will depend on each trader decision, but is important to use at least one that helps us confirming the new trend. On the other hand, filters delay signals, so we should not use more that one, may be two because we will find out we are getting into market to late.
So in a bullish market, we must buy every time price reaches the ascendant trend line, but if price breaks the trend line, we must stop buying: we buy waiting for a rebound, and when the line is broken as it will sooner or later, well we must close the position and assume the lost. See is highly possible that we take more profits during the trend duration, and so, a small loss will not affect our winnings.
Primary trend, Secondary trend and correction movements
Generally, inside the same chart, you can see different trend lines. One of them will probably define primary trend, others the secondary and so on.
In any big chart, daily or weekly, we see there are corrective movements that in fact are small descendant trends of a minor range. In smaller charts, like one hour ones, we will find out that there are small bearish trends against the bullish major one. So how can we solve and understand all these lines? Well the question here is to use one basic rule: We set our primary trend in the following bigger chart that the one we use to trade, meaning if you trade 1 hour charts, you set your trend lines in 4 hours chart.
In case we are daily traders, meaning we use daily charts to analyze a buy or sell signal, then we will have to define our primary trend in a weekly chart. If the weekly trend is bullish, we should try to trade buying, taking advantage of valleys or corrections we can see in daily charts.If we work with one hour charts, then we must look for the primary trend at daily or 4 hours charts, and use valleys and corrections of one hour to trade.
I won’t extend longer not to bore anyone, yet if you like this readings, let me know, and I will add one or twice a week.
Tags: rules to trade, Technical Education, Trend
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on November 13, 2008 at 12:08 in Long-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Some time ago, I was looking at this particular pair in the long term managing the possibility of a downside break. The proposed levels that should have been broken, in fact offer strong rebounds, and the pair is way above the maximums zone and remains close to 0.8400. Looking at monthly charts, looking for a probable target, I found an interesting resistance zone between 0.8450/75 yet a more likely target to the upside, and strong resistance will be the 138.2% of an inverted Fibonacci rally that you can see in the chart, @ 0.8670 Anyway, indicators are close to overbought extremes fut not giving any sign of correction.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eugbm-300x181.gif
Daily charts indicators are also overbought yet still pointing high. If you like short term trades, I believe the pair should offer some 30 pips rebound if reaches quickly in the next hours, the congestion zone0.8460 mentioned above.
Tags: Eur/Gbp, Euro, Gb
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on November 13, 2008 at 11:40 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is moving in a tight range right now,but tending lower: with no clear signs yet, under 95.40 the pair will try to test the zone between 94.90 and 95.00 again, with next supports at 94.40, and 94.10. Resistances in the short term are located at 96.08, the zone @ 96.40/50 and finally 97.10.
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd short term perspectives
Posted on November 13, 2008 at 10:52 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd, has reached another daily minimum last night, @ 1.2390, although still the 1.2330 zone, this year minimum at the time, needs to be broken to see the pair continuing to the downside. The importance of this 1.2390 is that the pair continues with daily lows, giving us a good idea where the market strength is. Taking a look at 4 hours charts, the pair is quoting close to 1.2490 and if you followed market this days, the tough the 1.2510/30 zone has been to the downside, should be to the upside today: the pair also have a very short term descendant trend line @ there, so the break trough should be clear to see the pair moving up (as indicators are suggesting, not really strongly) with next resistances at 1.2584 and then 1.2630. To the downside, we could fine some support @ 1.2478, followed by 1.2440, the minimum mentioned at 1.2390 and finally the zone @ 1.2330.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/euro4-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 13, 2008 at 9:58 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you are fine! reading my previous post, I can see I’m not “greedy” enough. Particularly on Gbp crosses, as they generally surpass my last levels of support and resistance, so I will try to add more levels since today to the intraday view. The U.K. economy continues to deteriorate even faster than expected, despite authorities are working with measures to helpthe economy, and the currency has yet more room to fall, particullary against dollar and Japanese yen, the two shinning starts in the forex sky.
To see today’s news, please, follow next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I´ll be back in a few minutes with technicals for today. Have a great day!
Eur/Usd in small charts
Posted on November 12, 2008 at 14:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains bearish and under strong pressure. In 30 minutes charts we can see an inverted triangle that the pair has just attempt to break, right now @ 1.2495. Also the pair has reached again the daily minimum, so under that point a quick run again to 1.2476 is more than likely; if the pair breaks under that, 1.2440 will be exposed.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eu302-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Gbp/Jpy medium term
Posted on November 12, 2008 at 13:22 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
While Gbp is extremely week, Japanese yen is the second most strong currency at these days. The trend is clearly bearish, and if you tale a look at this chart, you will see the pair close to the base of a channel @ 1.4690, while also indicators point in that direction. I can see some congestion zone round 147.40 so, under that point, the pair could easily run to the base of the channel, and if broken we could see a more quickly fall, being 145.10 a probable target. Only above 149.04 I see the pair with more chances to regaining some strength and above 151.30, the pair will try to retest the descendant trend line.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gby-300x181.gif
Tags: Gbp/Jpy
Gbp/Usd actualization
Posted on November 12, 2008 at 11:22 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is moving to fast to let me add more detail information. However, the 1.5278(previous month minimum) was broken and as expected the pair fall quickly: despite some correcctions we could see, the pair has next interesting support level and final target for today, at 1.5130.
Tags: gbpusd
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on November 12, 2008 at 10:52 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
As they are both the stronger currencies at the moment, the pair continues moving sideways, although slightly bearish at the moment: under 97.10 first support for today, the pair could easily run to the zone @ 96.70 followed by 96.20/30. Anyway you can appreciate 2 trend lines in the chart attached, so a break out of any of them will probably trigger some more interesting movements here. Regarding resistances for today, we should consider 97.48, the zone between 97.90/98.10, and only above 98.30 we could see the pair regaining some ground, although I cannot see it rising further than that today.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/yen3-300x184.gif
Tags: usdjpy
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on November 11, 2008 at 14:49 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
In 15 minutes charts, the pair is close to break under an ascendant trend line @ 97.70, and indicators in this time frame are also pointing to the downside. Add to this, that despite the bank holiday, US stocks are falling (that’s surely not a new. If you intent to sell the pair from here, place a tight stop just above 98.05. under the trend line, next support in the very short term will be the zone around 97.50, and then 97.20.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/yen2-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
A simple advice for novice traders
Posted on November 11, 2008 at 13:31 in Technical Education by Valeria Bednarik4 Comments »
If you need are a newbie to this forex world, or even if you are not successful as you wish to, maybe reading this simple advices could help. Hope you enjoy it!
We use to say that no matter how good a trader can be, his/her probabilities of success in the market are only a 40 % if analysis is not equilibrated with a very good emotional balance, that let him/ her control emotions at this very special kind of work.
Of course, it’s not easy, more taking notice that you must complement this with a working method, discipline, strategy, and what else you need for your day trading.The first mistake of a novel operator, usually is to think that the market will run in the chosen direction, just because. This happens because a complete, smart, easy trading method hasn’t been developed.
In this case, to avoid worst damage, you must use stops and limits.
Another common mistake, is the lack of control over anxiety, before of after entering the market. This happens too because of an absence of a method.
And there’s where the biggest mistakes are made: the trader “follows” the price running. Most of the times, it will be near the end of the run, bringing more looses than winnings; or keep on waiting a trend change INSIDE the market (wit lots of pips lost in the middle) waiting for a miracle, or once win has been took, get inside again looking for more pips in an adrenaline rush and finally, after a lost, look for a new signal within a few minutes, to get even.
Anxiety, is responsible too of two other common mistakes in a trader: compulsion to trade or in the opposite, panic to trade. In the first case, you will eventually loose everything; in the second, you may not lost money, but surely your self confidence will be damage.
These next tips, will help you. What they basically mean is: define a strategy, follow it, and the market will be at your side
1 - You can’t predict future. We have seen lots of gurus that, with some courage and less knowledge said things like “EUR/USD, by December, at 1.1800″. Is that useful for a trader? Is that useful for any of us today? The answer is NO. The rookie, will enter the market looking for that price, and no matter how many looses it generates, he will keep on entering, until it’s too late and lost the entire account.
I’m not saying long term analysis is wrong. It’s just not useful in the short or medium term and besides… let’s say I can see that 1,1800 is right… I cannot get into the market here and now to look for that target, without understanding why is a possible target, where I can place a long term stop loss and how could I protect such a trade.
As I always say, technical analysis is not design to predict the future: you must use it to analyze probabilities, cycles, behavior, and create a working hypothesis of high probabilities. And if it doesn’t work, it has to be dismissed
You can forecast market movements, but you can not ignore the probabilities involved or force the logic when you are trading.
2 Don’t pre judge: Sometimes, with just a look over the market, you say “it’s bullish” or “it’s starting to fall”. This quick without reason thoughts, are highly dangerous, because after this you will only try to justify your first intuition, with your technical analysis. You must always base your work in a dual hypothesis: If the price goes over 1,xxxx the probability is a bull trend; but if it comes down to 1,xxxx then the probabilities are bearish. Besides, you can’t be against or in favor a specific coin just for political sympathy; leave prejudice, euphoria, love or hate: market has no feelings.
3. Be flexible: a rational, logical tough obviously is better than intuition: you will made fewer mistakes, and be ready to assume moderate losses, without feeling down, if you are rational.
4: Trust your analysis: no matter if you are a technical or a fundamental trader, the thing is, before entering the markets, you should have studied the mathematical hopes of your analysis before applying it. Don’t search for others opinions: design your system according to your trading times and needs, test it, and believe it.
5. Have a plan: thanks God, market has only two directions. The secret here, is not the tool you use, but how you use it: design a working plan, set a strategy for both possibilities, and after a while you will find your own trading tactic, that will allow you to made profits
My forex professor always told me REMEMBER: HONEST AND SMART EFFORT ALWAYS GIVES GOOD RESULTS.
Tags: Building systems, common mistakes in trading, Technical Education, trading plan
Swiss Franc daily charts
Posted on November 11, 2008 at 12:43 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Yesterday I mentioned the Swiss Franc, and the 1.1800 key level. Not a pair I prefer to trade, however, the strong relationship between Swiss Franc and Euro, both against US Dollar. We usually said the pairs move forming mirror images,andalthough the correlation is weaker in shorter time frames, is still there. Anyway, the general idea is to follow the breakout ofkey points in either one or both currencies, and take the opportunity in the other, that will probably be dragged after the first one that breaks trough, as we could see that they don’t move all the time at the same speed.
By the way, Usd/Chf remains pretty close to the 1.1800 level, and is moving upwards, inside a daily ascendant channel, as you can see in the chart attached. Again above the 1.1802 the pair will try to retest the maximum a@ 1.1835 and extend even to the the congestion zone close to 1.1870. Above this last, the roof of the daily channel is near 1.1920, where we could expect some rebound at least on the first attempt. Regarding supports, only under 1.1741 the pair can continue to the 1.1700 zone, and under this, to the zone between 1.1655/70.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/chf-300x181.gif
Tags: Usd/Chf
Gbp/Usd attemping to break
Posted on November 11, 2008 at 10:57 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Gbp/Usd, is fighting the base of the channel proposed yesterday, and continues hitting lower lows.If manages to break this zone, next supports will be at 1.5476, followed by the zone @ 1.5420, 1,5350/60 and finally the zone @ 1.5280. Regarding resistances, and if the pair quickly rebound from here, not clear at this moment, will be at 1.5575, the zone around 1.5620, 1.5678 and finally the zone @ 1.5720/30
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp2-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd in the short term
Posted on November 11, 2008 at 10:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Finally yesterday, the pair managed to fill the gap, and test the base of the triangle we were seeing, after breaking the 30 minutes ascendant trend line suggested. Following the triangle, the pair has attempted to break under it, yet failed at the moment. The price is approaching to the vertex of the figure, yet a breakout to the downside is still possible: first support will be @ 1.2710, followed by the minimum reached last night at 1.2675. A break under it could send the pair, first to the zone @ 1.2620/30 and finally 1.2580. Regarding resistances, we should consider 1.2770, 1.2810, the zone @ 1.2840 and finally 1.2900 not seen at this moment.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/euro1-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 11, 2008 at 8:49 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Greenback dissolved it early loses yesterday during the American session, and close the day in positive territory against most rivals, followed by the Japanese yen, that also continues strong across the board. Good to notice, market continues in trend, yet majors are starting to move in normal daily ranges, although we may see some more of those amusing days, since are coming back to normal slowly. Europeans, (Euro, Gbp, Swiss Franc) remain close to yesterday’s key levels, and seem ready to break trough. I will post technicals earlier, as today we have BankHoliday in the U.S. and probably the volume will decrease after Europe close.
Today, we have the following news, East Time:
4:30am GBP Trade Balance (Expected -8.0B Previous -8.2B)
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Expected -62.5 Previous -63.0)
5:00am EUR European ZEW Economic Sentiment (Expected -60.0 Previous -62.7)
Follow the Swiss Franc
Posted on November 10, 2008 at 15:14 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Chf has a really important resistance level at 1.1800 where the pair has been rebounding strongly. If the pair manages to break above it, it could trigger a dollar bullish rally against all European majors. However, small charts both in Euro and Swiss franc against Usd, are suggesting a correction (as the dollar is overbought) before a continuation. Remember follow the 1.1800, is going to lead the way.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on November 10, 2008 at 14:46 in Short-Term Analysis, Trading Opportunities by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has just attempted to break under the key zone around 1.2850, also a 30 minutes ascendant trend line. If the pair manages to break under it and start a new candle under that level, chances are of a retest of the 1.2790/2805 zone. To consider a rebound on that line, we should wait to see the pair above 1.2865, where it should approach again to 1,2890. We are about to see a new 4 hours candle so also a opening under this zone could trigger a bearish rally.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/eu30-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Gbp/Usd short and longer term
Posted on November 10, 2008 at 13:47 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Looking at 4 hours charts, the pair is inside an almost perfect descending triangle. Although some theories said this isa continuation figure, others disagree: the figure is at the end of a clear descendant previous trend, and theoretically we could expect a break trough the base to send the pair to the zone @ 1.4400 (the high of the figure is of @ 1100 pips). However the pair should do thatmaximum in two more candles: remember a break of a triangle is valid as long as it happens between the 2/4 and the 3/4 of the length of the figure measured from the beginning to the vertex.And the same goes for the descendant trend line (closer at this time, and with high chances of being tested today). In case the pair finally break the figure close to the vertex, remember, the figure will be consider useless, but not the trend lines, just don’t expect the pair to accomplish the target proposed by the triangle.Anyway, and for the next hours, resistances will be at 1.5835, and the the descendant trend line, @ 1.5880. A candle opening above it, will send the pair first to the zone around 1.5960 and finally 1,6010. Regarding supports, only under 1.5765 the pair could gain some bearish strength with next supports at 1.5718, 1.5675 and finally 1.5638.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp1-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Usd/Jpy
Posted on November 10, 2008 at 12:56 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Usd/Jpy is tending bullish and probably will continue in that direction, as long as the pair remains above 98.90/99.00 however, the zone @ 99.50/60 has proved to be a strong resistance, so only a clear signal above it could drive the pair first to 100.03 and then to 100.56, tops for today. Regarding supports, the ones to consider are, the mentioned zone @98,90, followed by 98.65 (today’s minimum) and finally the zone @ 98.20, where the pair will close the openning gap (not clearly seen at this moment).
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on November 10, 2008 at 11:02 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is right now, ready to break above the 1.29 level, and despite the flat indicators, the trend seems bullish for the rest of the day. First resistance to the upside will be @ 1.2920, and above it, the pair could easily continue first to 1.2952 and then 1.3000 a daily descendant trend line. See the chart attached, the pair is forming quite a triangle, and a break above this last will probably mean a larger upside correction for the next days. On the other hand, only under 1.2850 we could see the pair trying to regain the 1.2790/1.2805 tough zone at the moment. a confirmation under this last, will increase chances of the gap filling for the pair, @ 1.2730.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/euro-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 10, 2008 at 10:45 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Nov 10th. Hi everybody hope you are fine. Quite disappointing Friday market reaction after NonFarmU.S. payroll with a really bad reading: a 240k decline, and a 6.5% unemployment rate,should have sent greenback quickly down, yet majors were unable to fight against it. things changed at Sunday Asianopening, with majors leaving gaps and reacting as they should have done after the publication. Euro, Gbp and Swiss Franc are up against greenback, while Japanese yen is falling at the moment, and seems this will continue during the European session.
I’ll be back in a few minutes with the technicals for today. Have a great day!
Starting the day
Posted on November 7, 2008 at 12:14 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you are fine! In about 30 minutes, the U.S. will publish their monthly employment report, the Non Farm Payrolls as is expected to be a really bad reading: 6.3% the unemployment rate, and 200K employ positions lost. Could that made greenback retreat finally? Probably in the short term, will depend on numbers. I will try to add short comments after the release, and follow majors movements trough here.
Have a great day!
BoE and ECB live coverage
Posted on November 6, 2008 at 15:42 in Live Webinars by adminNo Comments »
Tags: boe, ecb
Live coverage ECB and BOE rates
Posted on November 6, 2008 at 11:34 in Live Webinars by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
HI! Ok, in a few minutes, I will be starting the live coverage of the announcements, at Fxstreet.com home page. Market is expecting cuts from both Central Banks, of 0.50 basis points each.
The key levels to watch for the pairs will be
Euro/Usd 1.2780 to the downside, and 1.2990 to the upside.
Gbp/Usd 1.5760 to the downside and 1.6100to the upside.
We will be discussing what’s going on and what could happen if numbers are any different from what expected, but those are the most important levels to be broken, to confirm further trend.
Starting the day
Posted on November 6, 2008 at 9:00 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you are fine!After seeinggreenback falling mostly against Europeans all day long, a turn in US stocks (that fell for almost 500 points) by the end of the American session yesterday, send it back to the positive side: dollar and Japanese yen are again the winning currencies across the board, and the positive trend for both, continued in the Asian session. Today we have the BOE and the ECB rate decision, and the market is not only counting with a cut, but also expecting further ones, particullary from ECB. I will be covering it live! at Fxstreet.com home page. And post before it, the key points for both majors.
Also, we have some news before the rates, you can check times o release following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Eur/Usd in 15 minutes
Posted on November 5, 2008 at 13:27 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/canal_mas_fibo_eur15min-300x145.gif
See this 15 minutes charts: If the pair breaks the base of the channel, also a daily Fibo, around 1.2850 the pair could quickly gain bearish momentum, first to the zone around 1.2825 and then to 1.2795.
Tags: eurusd
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Posted on November 5, 2008 at 12:58 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
4 hours charts remain slightly bullish in the pair, although it’s attempting to break lower, with indicators also giving bearish signals.quoting around 98.90, the ascendant trend line at 98.62 will be the firs support to consider, followed by98.25 today’s minimum; under that point the pair will try to reach the congestion zone around 98.00 and under this last, the zone around 97.70. Regarding resistances, above 99.14, 99.36 and 99.65 will be the ones to consider. Above the last, the bullish strength could gain momentum and send the pair above 100.00 to the zone around 100.30
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/yen1-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Euro/Usd for today
Posted on November 5, 2008 at 12:11 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Finally by the end of the American session, the Eur/Usd reached the last level proposed, 1.3050, and quickly fall due to the over bought state also seen. Anyway, the pair is right now running high approaching to a key descendant trend line around 1.3015 with an intermediate resistance at 1.2985. Only under 1.2932, the pair could return to the downside, targeting 1.2885 first, and the zone around 1.2850 then.
Tags: eurusd
Change has come
Posted on November 5, 2008 at 10:33 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Those are the words of the new U.S. Elected President, Barack Obama; Is this important for forex trader? No doubts. Would in change markets trend in the short or medium term? I don´t think so. But a new president means new monetary policy, taxes policy, and for what I now, even a new “war” policy. Obama focused his campaign in finding stability and sustainable economic growth. And this will certainly affect markets in the long term. If he could change things or not is something that we shouldn’t care about TODAY, and of course I mean in trading.Today we should pay attention to the lack of liquidity markets are experiencing these days (that’s the reason we see some violent spikes in one or other pair) and whether or not some confidence return to trading desks: stocks continue ruling market, so it’s good idea to keep an eye there while trading, and despite we have two “heavy” days ahead, I think we are at the beginning of a return to ”normal” market, meaning majors should stop moving 1000 pips a day, not tomorrow, not next Monday, but surely in the short term.
Today we have the follwing news, East Time:
08:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Expected -100K Previous -8K)
10:00USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Expected 47.3 Previous 50.2)
10:30 GBP CB Leading Index m/m (Previous -0.6%)
10:35 USD Crude Oil Inventories (Previous 0.5M)
Be back in a few minutes. Have a great day!
Euro and Gbp running high. What’s next?
Posted on November 4, 2008 at 16:22 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Both Euro and Gbp break to the upside against dollar, and continue moving higher, as stocks recover ground: the Eur/Usd could reach the zone around 1.3010, that could extend even to 1.3050 (not seen really) tops for today. Over bought in hourly charts, expect a corrective rebound in the next hours.
Gbp/Usd breaks above the 1.6000 triggering some bullish momentum that has reached at the moment a top @ 1.6105. Above this level 1.6164 is the next to consider.
Tags: Dolar, Euro, gbp
Live Webinar recording
Posted on November 4, 2008 at 16:08 in Technical Education by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
My last live webinar, about trading with Bollinger Bands and RSI, has been recorded. Here you have a link to it, in case you missed it!
http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2008/10/bollinger-bands.html
Tags: Bollinger bands, RSI
Gbp/Usd breaks maximum and Fibonacci level
Posted on November 4, 2008 at 12:57 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Gbp quickly break to the upside, above the figure (already discarded) and the Fibo level. If holds above the 1.5900, chances to the upside grow bigger, and above the daily maximum accomplished right now, next important target zone will be 1.6005
Tags: gbpusd
Gbp/Usd 15 minutes charts
Posted on November 4, 2008 at 12:17 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Do you like 15 minutes charts? the pair has formed a double roof at 1.5902 (where we also have the 38.2% retracement of yesterday’s fall) with a floor at 1.5812, a nearly 90 pips figure (kind of excessive for this small time frame). If the pair manages to break under 1.5810, I will try a 40 pips short there maybe around 1.5804/06, with a stop just above 1.5833, always following this 15 minutes charts and candles there. why only 40 if the figure implies 90? because I like to take profits quickly: that increases account, and set them free for another movement.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp15-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Euro/Usd in the following hours
Posted on November 4, 2008 at 11:47 in Short-Term Analysis, Trading Opportunities by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is attempting to regain some bullish direction, after recovering completely yesterday’s losses, and breaking a 4 hours descendant trend line with last candle, around 1.2710; however, the pair should confirm above the congestion zone between 1.2768/85, to continue to the upside, with next resistance at 1.2809, 1.2845 and finally 1.2897. Supports from actual price will be at 1.2734, followed by 1.2700 (where the pair will completed the pullback to the broken line if reached). A confirmation under this last, will take the pair to the zone around 1.2660.
Tags: eurusd
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on November 4, 2008 at 11:26 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Jpy is moving sideways, yet readyto change bias in 4 hours charts: the tough zone around 99.60/70 has been already tested today, and I believe above that value, we will have more clear signs of a bullish continuation with a first target at the zone around 100.05, that if broken could take the pair quickly to 100.62. Daily indicators are pointing so, yet 4 hours one are kind of flat at the moment. Regarding supports, we have 99.03, followed by 98.81 and a more strong zone between 98.20/30 that if get’s passed trough (seems unlikely at the moment) will turn the pair bearish for the next 24 hours.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/yen-300x181.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Starting the day
Posted on November 4, 2008 at 9:35 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you are fine!. The quiet Monday turned into a volatile one, and despite the result in fundamentals (in general good in England and Europe, pretty bad in the U.S.) the greenback hunger hasn’t change: dollar begin November with strength enough to confirm last week movements were technical corrections (as commented last week) and the bullish strength seems to be here to stay.
Particularly today, we have the Presidential elections in the U.S. and the result will certainly bring an end to several months of political uncertainly, giving the American currency a positive help, supporting the technical perspective. Besides,the rate cuts expected in England and Europe, will probably point the same way.
I know I always say fundamentals are just “noise” in the market, and I really believe that; see what happened yesterday, they couldn’t change the trend; the difference is that, when fundamentals come along supporting actual trend, well, that gives extra energy to that previoustrend. See the point? Also take notice about them and the time they are released, just to avoid trading a few minutes before or after them.
Anyway, I have been quite busy these last few weeks, but I’m back, and I will like to take this blog to a higher level.
These are the most relevant news for today, G.M.T.:
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index MoM (Expected -0.1% Previous -0.5%)
22:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (Previous -49)
Tags: News
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Posted on November 3, 2008 at 12:31 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
While candles are slightly bullish, indicators are turning to the downside after this last 4 hours candle openning. The pair is right now, fighting an ascendant trend line at 1.6183 with a tough congestion zone @ 1.6160. Only under this value, the pair could run to the downside, with next supports at 1.6105 and finally the zone around 1.6060. Resistances on the other hand are at 1.6210, followed by the zone around 1.6243 and finally 1.6297.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/11/gbp-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd today
Posted on November 3, 2008 at 11:57 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
TheEur/Usd is moving sideways, and seems to be turning bearish at the moment, with a first support at the congestion zone @ 1.2823 under which, the pair could move to next support zone @ 1.2790. things are really quiet today, don’t expect large movements. Under 1.2755, next target for today could be 1.2718. Regarding resistances, above 1.2890 we have 1.2920 and finally the zone @ 1.2945.
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on November 3, 2008 at 10:31 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody how are you! Hope you enjoy the weekend ( I did! ). Well, November is here, along with the global crisis, and a busy week ahead that includes Presidential elections in the U.S., rates in Europe and England, and Nonfarm Payrolls in the U.S. among another fundamental factors. Will these change things? certainly not in the short term, but those are ones of those key factors than can change the destiny of a currency. From a technical point of view, weekly charts are set to a dollar bearish correction, (I will post longer term analysis between today and tomorrow for majors) and probably we have today a quiet day, as market players decide whether to place their bets.
By the way, cheap stocks are becoming attractive to people not really focused in that market, and that’s why we see some bullish corrections there around the world; yet I don’t believe everything is said there; if you have an opinion, let me know.
Today we have the following news in the U.S., East Time:
10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Expected 41.6 Previous 43.5)
10:00 USD Construction Spending m/m (Expected -0.8% Previous 0.0%)
10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices (Expected 49.0 Previous 53.5)
11:00 GBP BOE Governor King Speaks
See you in a few minutes with some technicals, have a great day!
The Eur/Usd in the long and short term
Posted on October 31, 2008 at 11:46 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Taking a look at 4 hours charts, the pair is recovering some bullish strength, after a 61.8% correction of this week rally. Momentum has turned to the upside, yet not clear signs from indicators at the moment, as the candle have just started, yet open under the 20 SMA. The pair has just attempted to get above the 1.2800 level, yet failed. In fact, I can see a tough congestion zone between 1.2800/1.2830, that could give the pair a hard time to the upside in the next hours. Above it, next important resistance will be @ 1.2880, then some pips above the 38.2% of the rally, @1.2940 and finally 1.2975. Under 1.2745, 1.2690 will be exposed, and under that zone, 1.2655 will be the target to consider.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eu4-300x181.gif
Let’s turn to weekly charts and see what happened: yesterday’s maximum reached exactly the 38.2% of the down leg coming from 1.4867, and the pair rebound really quickly from there. Momentum is still pointing to the downside, yet the pair is way too oversold. 20 SMA is bearish, and price is under the 200 EMA. Next week opening will certainly clarify the situation (and of course, today’s close) but the bearish longer term strength is still there, despite the oversold condition, as long as the 1.3300 zone holds;actual price is not the best shorting option. RSI should correct before a continuation.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/euw-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting a different day
Posted on October 31, 2008 at 10:37 in Starting the day by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Hi everybody how are you? Last day of this crazy October. I cannot remember a month like this in the last years, with the many wild movements one way or the other we have seen lately. World is trying to reach a new international balance, in the middle of one of thelargest worldwide crisis; maybe, it’s a redundancy to say that it’s quite logical in this XXI century to see a wall falling in America and the bricks falling in Oceania. What’s not logical at least for me, is the way things happened. Could this be prevented? Why things reach this level? Where is the root of this global economic slowdown? Could the answer be, just human greed? Speculative bubbles? This kind of toughts are like a slap in my face, reminders of how do I like to spend the short time I will spend in this earth: do I live for the money, or is the money there for me to live?. What’s the sense of accumulating billions and trillions, when I see hunger (and not for money, real hunger) in the streets and not only in my country? Maybe this is not what many of you are expecting to read here today. But let me tell you, this afternoon after school, I will turn my computer off (instead of planning next week job) grab my girls hands, and go to the park, to the cinema or to the moon if they wish to. We will return home late at night, dirty, tired, yet with our hearts full of joy.
Don’t be to greedy with market; don’t be to scared. Plan a trade, set a stop set a limit; the result doesn’t matter: don’t regret getting a few pips with your limit if you seea bigger run to your side after it; don’t be scared to try again if you were stopped out. Plan another, move on. Stick to your plan, if you trust it; made another if you don’t and test it before risking your money. Use leverage wisely and enjoy this f…g life!
You can check today’s most important news, following this link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I will be back in a few minutes, with today technicals. Have a grat day!
Usd/Jpy slow recovery
Posted on October 30, 2008 at 13:36 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Japanese Yen remains moving sideways, yet above the key 98.00. Also stocks start in a positive way today, so maybe we could consider go long in this pair, just above 98.86, targeting first, the zone @ 99.10, ans between 99.30 and 99.45 above it.Under 98.20 the pair could turn to the downside, with next supports at 97.82 and 97.29, not seen for today.
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for the rest of the day
Posted on October 30, 2008 at 12:02 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Quoting @ 1.3080, the pair is also tending bearish in the shorter term, correcting last night rally: a confirmation under 1.3064, 23.6% of 1.2330/1.3288 rally, could push the pair to the zone around 1.3320 first, followed by 1.2985 and finally 1.2920, 38.2% of the mentioned rally. Above 1.3116, next resistances will be at 1.3154, the zone @ 1.3230, and them today maximum at 1.3288.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eu3-300x184.gif
Tags: eurusd
Gbp/Usd
Posted on October 30, 2008 at 11:38 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has reached a quite interesting key level earlier today, posted some days ago as longer term analysis: the 61.8% of the last daily fall from 1.7517 to 1.5269, @ 1.6655. So the movement till here, could be considered as a correction in the longer term, as long as today maximum holds. Of course we will have to wait and see where and how the day ends, to consider a longer term continuation for the pair. Right now, 4 hours charts are losing steam and despite the strong bullish trend, the pair is turning bearish: under 1.6515, the pair could try to reach next support at 1.6470, followed by 1.6428, the zone around 1.6390 and finally and more stronger 1.6336. See the divergence between candles and momentum that seems to be starting. On the other hand, above 1.6565, the pair could regain the bullish strength and continue first, to the zone @ 1.6600, followed by 1.6636 and finally the daily maximum at 1.6671. Above this last, the longer term bullish continuation could gain extra points.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbp7-300x184.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Starting the day
Posted on October 30, 2008 at 10:46 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you’re fine!. Octobers come to an end, and for those of you that followed the FOMC live! coverage, it’s not a surprise the bearish dollar we are seeing since the beginning of Asian session. I have to say I was not expecting such rallies, particularly in European majors yet trend was quite clear just one hour after FOMC, and finally we are getting used to them; that’s why I always say we need to readjust our trading systems, strategies or methods, to market conditions, remember, this won’t last either!
Maybe you can consider me simple, yet another thing that i never get tired of repeating, is that fundamentals are just “noise” in the market and hardly interrupt the trend; in fact, previous trend was already dollar bearish, and majors respect during the retracement, key support zones, where rebounds were expected and actually happened. I always preferred Technical analysis over all, and seems it doesn’t work that bad http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Today we have will have the following news, East Time:
08:30 USD Advance GDP q/q (Expected -0.5% Previous 2.8%)
08:30 USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Expected 4.0% Previous 1.1% )
08:30 USD FOMC Member Kroszner Speaks
08:30 USD Unemployment Claims (Expected 476K Previous 478K)
10:35 USD Natural Gas Storage (Expected 41B Previous 70B)
Be back in a few minutes!
FOMC live Coverage
Posted on October 29, 2008 at 17:31 in News by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
I will be covering the FOMC decision live at Fxstreet.com home page.
See you there!
Tags: FOMC
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on October 29, 2008 at 13:06 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Gbp/Usd is also continuing the bullish rally proposed yesterday, although the pair has find a tough zone around the 38.2% if the daily fall measured from 1.7517 to 1.5278. 4 hours charts has turned slightly to the downside, with 1.6000 as a first support for the next hours, yet if broken, the pair will quickly approach to 1.5926, followed finally by 1.5874. Further falls, seem tough for today. To the upside, 1.6064 is the first resistance to consider, above which, the pair could quickly approach to the 1.6100 zone; next resistances will be at 1.6157 and finally today’s high at 1.6220.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbp6-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
The Euro/Usd for today
Posted on October 29, 2008 at 12:01 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd, is bullish in 4 hours, after hitting a few minutes ago a fresh maximum at 1.2845 also the 76.4% of the last downleg any movement above that value could trigger a bullish continuation first, to the zone around 1.2880 and finally the zone around 1.2930. Supports from actual price are 1.2780, and the zone around 1.2744 (61.8% of the mentioned rally) that should offer rebound if reached. We need a 4 hours candle opening under it, to see a bearish really to the zone around 1.2700.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/euro2-300x181.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on October 29, 2008 at 10:59 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hopeyou are fine! As commented yesterday, majors where set to begging and upward move, yesterday, and did, beyond my humble expectations, after a quite positive close in New York stocks, by the end of the American session. in this context, European majors run higher and are set to continue today, as Japanese yen fell on speculations that the Bank of Japan will cut rates this Friday. Also we have the FOMC meeting today, so we have a very busy day ahead.
Today, we have the following news, East Time:
08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m (Expected -1.2% Previous -4.8%) and Core (Expected -1.5% Previous -3.3%)
10:35 USD Crude Oil Inventories (Previous 3.2M)
14:00 GBP MPC Member Blanchflower Speaks
14:15 USD FOMC Statement
14:15 USD Federal Funds Rate 1.00% 1.50%
Be back in a few minutes with some technicals for today. Have a great day!
Usd/Jpy for the next hours
Posted on October 28, 2008 at 13:22 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
This pair, obviously the most affected by stocks movements, has accomplished yesterday the proposed target, and right now, is fighting the key level of 95.30 38.2% of the last fall. Also indicators are suggesting a bullish continuation, yet with American stocks opening in a few minutes, we will need to wait and see at least 2 or 3 short term candles, to confirm a further continuation with resistances atthe congestion zone @ 95.60, followed by 96.00 and today’s maximum at 96.20. Under 94.90, the bullish continuation is denied, and the pair will find next supports at 94.40, the zone @ 94.15 and finally 93.65, not seen at the moment.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/yen7-300x182.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd starting a correction?
Posted on October 28, 2008 at 12:46 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
4 hours charts in the pair, shown the pair is starting a shy bullish rally, as also indicators are turning downside up, despite signals are far from clear (take a look at CCi and the vertical inclination that suggest more sideways moves yet). 1.5750/60, is acting like a strong resistance and seems hard the pair could break above it, yet, any movement above that zone, could probably trigger a bullish rally with next resistances @ 1.5810 and finally 1.5870/80. Supports from actual price will be at 1.5687, followed by 1.5630 and finally the zone @ 1.5595.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbp5-300x182.gif
Tags: gbpusd
The Eur/Usd for today
Posted on October 28, 2008 at 11:12 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting right now around 1.2500, moving sideways yet slightly bullish at the time. with a first resistance around 1.2535 ( zone of 4 hours maximums and minimums of these last days) above that zone the pair could try to re test the upper band of the range, around 1.2590, also the 38.2% of the last down leg. If this zone is passed trough, as it has been tested several times, we could see some bullish momentum, with next resistances at 1.2626 and finally the zone around 1.2660. Supports from here will be at 1.2470/80, under which, we have 1.2442 and finally the zone around 1.2410/20.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eur3-300x182.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on October 28, 2008 at 9:38 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine! A choppy Monday to begin the week, but with greenback again being the winner, yet with majors more calm ahead of bigger events this week, starting tomorrow, with the FOMC rate decision in the U.S. During Asian session stocks rebounded enough to send the yen down, and for now, Europe stocks are just fighting to be positive, giving some relief to majors, that are presenting a shy correction of the long bearish trend. Let’s see what technicals say about that.
Today, we have the following news, East Time:
06:00 GBP MPC Member Gieve Speaks
07:00 GBP CBI Realized Sales (Expected -35 Previous -27)
09:00 USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (Expected -16.6% Previous -16.3%)
10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Expected 52.2 Previous 59.8)
10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Expected -21Previous -18)
13:15 GBP MPC Member Besley Speaks
Japanese Yen intervention?
Posted on October 27, 2008 at 15:16 in News by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Sometimes, trying to find a top or a bottom, it nos just a matter of technical analysis alone. Japanese yen is one of my favorite currencies to trade, and I’m just taking notice of a possible intervention of Japan authorities, in order to deal with the finnacial crisis. Here’s the link to the Japanese newspaper:
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20081027p2a00m0na015000c.html
From a technical perspective, the pair is right now fighting the 94.00 level, after breaking a descendant trend line in 4 hours charts, @ 93.54. Where we also have the 23.6% of the last fall in daily charts. If the pair pullbacks there and the support holds, chances to the upside get stronger, targeting the zone around 95.30 in the next 24 hs.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/yen6-300x181.gif
Tags: Japanese Yen
The Eur/Usd
Posted on October 27, 2008 at 13:30 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
A fresh low today in the pair and the week opening both suggest a bearish continuation for the pair in the medium term, yet indicators are really exhausted to the downside, so we could see some corrective movements before a renewed fall. Quoting around 1.2460, the pair has the 38.2% of the last downleg at 1.2490 in 4 hours chars. A confirmation above that will be a good sign to the upside, first to the zone around 1.2526, followed by 1.2560 and finally the zone around 1.2600, 61.8% of the mentioned leg.
Under 1.2426, the pair could regain bearish momentum, with the next supports at 1.2380 zone, and the daily minimum 1.2334. trading remains choppy, seems hard we see the pair under that level today.
Tags: eurusd
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Posted on October 24, 2008 at 11:29 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Today is one of those days, when no matter what indicator you use, the only reasonable trade is to follow the trend and enter the market in rebounds against it. Gbp/Usd 4 hours charts indicators are way too exhausted, yet the pair already corrected almost the 38.2% of the last downleg, so if the pair can’t manage to break above the 1.5630/60 zone, the bearish continuation seems more likely for the rest of the day, with supports at 1.5410, 1.5358, andfinally the daily minimum around1.5270. Above 1.5650 upside could extend at least to 1.5715 zone and then to 1.5780, 50% of the Fibo mentioned
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbp4-300x225.gif
Taking a look at longer term charts, one wonders if there is a floor for the pair and where is it. The pair has accumulated almost 5000 pips free fall in the last 4 months, and looking at historical charts, the hugest accumulatedloss was of around 6400 pips in about 6 months back in ´96. Looking further, the rally acomplised more or less the same back in 81. After that, the pair correct exactly the 38.2% in about two months. We could face many different situations right here in the long term, andthat is an extension of actual movement to the zone around 1.51( we have there an ascendant trend line coming from the historical minimum)and 1.48 zone after. Both very important monthly support zones.If today’s minimum is surpassed, then those will be the objectives, and we will be in about 5500 pips straight fall. Meaning is probable? yes no doubts. if the pair ends the bearish there or not.. is way out of my forecast possibilities. We will have to get there and see what happens. Right now seems probable. So in the case the pair reaches that 1.4800 level andfinally decide to rebound, we could determinate a first target zone around the 33/38.2% lest´s say around1.900 pips; the zone around1.6700. If the ascendant line around 1.5100 holds, well the upside correction should come higher.Still and despite the exhausted indicators, there are no signals of a trend change. Longer term trades to the upside, (waiting for aninteresting amount of pips in corrections) will have to wait for the pair reaction first to the line,a nd if broken to the 1.4800 zone.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbpm1-300x181.gif
Tags: gbpusd
OPEP interferes
Posted on October 24, 2008 at 10:41 in News, Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
OPEC decided Friday to make a deep cut in oil production, taking 1.5 million barrels a day off global markets as it embarks on the challenging task of managing prices amid a potential global recession. That’s the primary reason majors braked. But I don’t think is over: the US Stocks today, will certainly decide majors direction today.
Eur/Usd intraday
Posted on October 24, 2008 at 8:41 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
No matter how big the chart is, I can’t find still a decent bottom for the pair. My first target zone around 1.29 was passed trough without too much noise, and around actual price, next important support zone will be @ 1.2450, not far from where we are right now. The bearish momentum is strong enough to send the pair close to that zone today, with a first intermediate support at 1.2510/20.
Tags: eurusd
Welcome to the jungle
Posted on October 24, 2008 at 8:01 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. After a quiet corrective day yesterday, majors unwind today starting early in the Asian session. Despite NY closed positive, Tokyo stocks tumbled triggering again fears of a global recession, and pushing again investors quickly out of risky assets. In this circumstances,Japanese yen jumped to a 13 years high against dollar, and multi years highs against other rivals, being the overall winner, followed of course by greenback. As the Jpy surged, Japanese Finance Minister warned he will “closely watch the markets” and will stay in close touch with the Bank of Japan and overseas authorities to avoid exposing further the country exports, although no action still was taken to put a brake at yen momentum. Meanwhile the Pound is also sinking fast, not only impel by last Tuesday Mervyn King’s words about recession, but also because external capital financing is drying up: with no capital flows, England will be forced to adjunct the trade deficit and rates more and faster than otherwise. Finally prospect for the Euro zone continuing deteriorating and more certain action will be needed from authorities, to restoresome confidence in the zone.
To check today’s news,you can follow next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Have a great day!
Where is Gbp/Usd heading
Posted on October 23, 2008 at 12:51 in Long-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Gbp/Usd continues falling apart: quoting right now at 1.6060, the objective for this movement is the zone around 1.5750, a projected line of monthly minimums. Indicators still are quite oversold, so, the idea in here is take your chances to the downside, in the bullish rebounds or correction, meaning wait for the pair to regain some ground close to a resistance zone, and there sell the pair.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbp3-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on October 23, 2008 at 11:10 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is consolidating around 1.2820, yet the downside pressure is still there. The trend remains bearish despite losing momentum and the oversold signs we have in bigger charts. with a first support around 1.2795/2805, the pair is slowly addressing to 1.2857. Under this value, the pair will try to retest the minimum at 1.2727, and like posted last night, under it, 1.2670 will be the target zone to consider. Regarding resistances, we have a short descendant trend line @ 1.2840: above it, the pair could start gaining ground, having next resistances at 1.2865, 1.2915 and finally 1.2945.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eu2-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on October 23, 2008 at 9:55 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Well, things are quiet since Asia opening, although the market sentiment hasn’t change: the damage done to the economies around the world is now clear, not just for expert economist but also for the common people: I was talking with some Spanish colleges yesterday, that give me a more certain glance of what’s going on in Europe; commodities fell, I am not talking about gold and oil. I live in a primary producer country:soybean ton price is nearly half the price of last month. That means the state will not collect all the taxes included in the national budget, increasing the country deficit. State decide to nationalize private retirement founds, and most of that private retirement founds companies are foreign: that helped stocks in Spain fall heavily yesterday, because most of the private capital come from that country. The point is.. is a global chain, or a domino line: one pulls the string in one extreme, and everything falls apart. Forex market will stabilize much more quickly than this global chaos, I believe itwill take a coupe of years to see economies begin to growth, and just a couple of month to see currencies in normal intraday ranges. Anyway, it was a great day yesterday, hope today we have another one.
We have no really interesting news today, yet you can check the following link to see today’s calendar:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Be back in a few minutes with some technicals
Have a great day!
Starting Asian Session
Posted on October 23, 2008 at 0:11 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
A new day has started in half the world, and for me is time to end the day yet, majors don’t need to sleep: Eur/Usd remains bearish, with chances of a continuation under 1.2710, at least to the zone @ 1.2670.
Usd/Jpy is slowly moving to the target zone around 95.70/96.00. For the one that like to trade rebounds, that could be an interesting zone for a bullish one, although if the rebound if not quick enough, or the pair continues under 95.50, better idea to leave fast.
Gbp/Usd seems a bit calmer right now, losing the bearish speed, yet, not my favorite pair to leave with orders while I sleep: indicators are not suggesting so, but I expect the pair to correct some of this fall by the European session. Let’s see.
Tags: eurusd, Jpy/Usd
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Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd going where?
Posted on October 22, 2008 at 11:30 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd has accumulated almost 800 pips in 3 days, and remains clearly bearish in short and long term charts, despitethe over sold state some indicators show. Quoting around 1.2845, indicators seem exhausted to the downside, but selling pressure is to high to be ignored. Under 1.2833, first support for today, the pair will quickly run to today’s low, around 1.2810, yet if broken, next target zone will be @ 1.2770, and finally for today, the zone around 1.2732. Above 1.2885, the pair could try to reach the zone around 1.2925, yet only above 1.2945 we will have some signs of a bullish correction, first to 1.2968 , 1.3010 and finally the zone around 1.3040, 38.2% of the last downleg.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eu1-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Is there a floor for Europeans?
Posted on October 22, 2008 at 10:38 in Starting the day by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
October 22th. European majors collapsed in Asian session, with Euro reaching the 1.27 and GBP the 1.62 levels,making again dollar and Japanese Yen the overall winners. As commented after the last G7 meeting, the optimism triggered is coming to an end, as economic outlook worsen, and certain messures are not taken. And when authorities state that their countries are entering into recession, like Bank of England governor Mervyn King did yesterday, well, confidence of investors fell like a rock and run away to saferassets. The unwind of carry trades is sending Japanese yen up strongly against most rivals, and with other majors also under pressure against greenback, pairs like Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy had reached fresh several years high, ignoring signs of over sold. In fact, many currencies have the same symptom although like mentioned yesterday, there are no technical signs of corrections, meaning the Panic stage of Dow theory is still developing.
Today we have no big news to take care of, yet you can check the full calendar following this link: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I’ll be back in a few minutes with some technicals for today, and try to set a probable floor for each major cross
Have a great day!
Dow Theory principles
Posted on October 21, 2008 at 15:14 in Technical Education by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Charles Dow is consider the father of modern technical analysis and Chartism. He developed a theory about markets (in fact about stocks markets, but very useful for forex analysis too), and it could be a good reading if you want to understand what Market Sentiment means. The theory fundamental points are as follows:
1. Price discount everything. Meaning price reflects all market forces that could affect stocks, like for example, supply and demand, political factors, market sentiment and even natural disasters.
2. Price moves in trends. And so we are able to identify patterns; Trends could be bullish, when both maximums and minimums keep on being higher or bearish when both maximums and minimums keep on being lower. At the same time trends could be primary, secondary and tertiary regarding their duration. Each bullish and bearish market had typical stages as follows:
1- Bullish Market
A primary bull market is defined as a long sustained advance marked by improving business conditions that elicit increased speculation and demand for stocks; you can see that price action search for higher levels, while the secondary trend is not able to set under the last higher level.
There are three stages:
a- Accumulation
This stage almost indistinguishable from the last reaction rally of a bear market, is characterized by strong pessimism, where slowly price seems to find a bottom and firm up as investors began to accumulate establishing positions.
b- Recovering or expansion
Activity starts again, as price begins to rise; is normally the longest and represents an easily identifiable trend, as investors start recovering confidence.
c- Distribution
Market is fully active: price runs, and so volume and most investors take positions encouraged by greed.
2- Bearish Market
We define a market as bearish, when prices keep marking new minimums and the bullish corrections are not enough to reach previous corrections highs. The stages are the same as in bullish market:
a- Distribution
The last stage of previous trend, volume remains high, but price recovering starts to come down.
b- Panic
The sell pressure is much higher than buy one. Price fells dramatically and bearish movement accelerates. In this stage, is easy to see some secondary bullish reactions (corrections).
c- Despair
Sells continued: valuations are low, but the selling continues as participants seek to sell no matter what. The fundamental news are bad, the economic outlook bleak and not a buyer is to be found. The market will continue to decline until all the bad news are fully priced into stocks. Once stocks fully reflect the worst possible outcome, the cycle begins again.
3- Confirmation principle: In order to confirm a trend, is necessary that both indexes have the same trend, meaning both must be bullish or bearish at the same time.
4- Concordant volume: When a market is bullish, volume should rise during downside up rallies, but become lower when price decrease; on the other hand, if trend is bearish, volume will increase during upside down rallies and become smaller in bullish corrections. This is the same as saying that volume will come along with trend.
5- Averages are the result of each session close. According to Dow Theory, only close price must be use, without taking care of maximum, or minimums of the session.
6- Trend is valid until it is substituted by the contrary one. A trend is considered valid until both indexes confirm the contrary trend, without taking care of another possible signs. This principle was developed in order to avoid premature positions changes
Usd/Jpy in the short term
Posted on October 21, 2008 at 14:27 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The upside of the pair seems quite limited at this time, with the zone around 101.10a strong short term resistance. The pair has also a short term descendant line trend, yet indicators seems to be exhausted to the downside in this short term charts. I will wait for next 15 or 30 minutes candle opening, and try to sell the pair, targeting the zone around 100.85. A candle opening above the trend line, will probably mean the contrary: an upside move to the zone of 101.44, also supported by indicators. Let’s see where and how next candle starts.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/yen5-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd bearish in the short term
Posted on October 21, 2008 at 11:38 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Gbp/Usd is also under bearish pressure today, falling all across the board. With a first support @ 1.6959, if the pair manages to break that level next support and target will be 1.6925, followed by the zone around 1.6885 and then 1.6850. Although there are little chances for a rise, the pair will find resistances at 1.6985, 1.7024, 1.7066 and finally the zone around 1.7700.
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd trading opportunities
Posted on October 21, 2008 at 10:57 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains under selling pressure, and has a daily minimum at 1.3308, so under this, maybe at 1.3204/06, the pair could easily reach next tough support zone 1.3171/80. giving at least a quick 20 pips rally. A continuation under this last, will send the pair to the next support zone around 1.3136. Rebounds in extremes and over sold states maybe not be the better trading idea today, because under this zones we could see more bearish momentum if bullish positions stops become triggered. Yet if you like to trade like this, don’t go for more than 15 pips.
Tags: eurusd
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Posted on October 21, 2008 at 10:33 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Gbp is usually consider a “slow” pair, because it generally moves a very short number of pips a day, and if Euro and Gbp have the same trend against the rest of the currencies, well this pair becomes kind of flat; also, is the one with the highest pip cost, and the highest spread in trading platforms (there could be some strange exception to this, yet we are talking about most common majors and brokers). This conditions made the pair discardable for intraday trading but more interesting for long term trades, if you have the patient and the capital to hold positions without disturbing your trading. If you take a look at the following daily chart, you will see the pair has traded in a 350/400 pips range since past April between 0.7800 and an historical maximum (since Euro becomes the Euro) @ 0.8186. Daily charts are also saying the pair is turning bearish, yet to see some movement in the pair, we will have to wait those strange days where Euro and Gbp move in opposite directions or even have different speeds. Daily charts is also showing important support zones@ 0.7730 and 0.7690, where you can see a congestion maximum zones last year, and also this year low for the pair. See that in daily charts the distancebetween both supports is just of 40/50 pips. So under 0.7690, we will probably find a good confirmation for a bearish continuation of the pair. First important resistance on the other hand, is between 0.7830/50, followed by 0.7925that should remain unbroken to consider the bearish long term continuation.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eg1-300x225.gif
Turning to weekly charts, we could add Fibonacci levels to set objetives to the movement: the 38.2% of the last upleg starting on July 2007, is around 0.7610. A confirmation under that level, could send the pair to next important weekly levels at 0.7490 and 0.7380, tough congestion zone. The further I can see today the pair, is at 0.7269, the 61.8% zone if the mentioned rally.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eg2-300x225.gif
Tags: Eur/Gbp
Starting the day
Posted on October 21, 2008 at 8:56 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
October 21th.Hello everybody hope you are fine. Greenbank is back, leading the market with Japanese yen, after FED´s President, Ben Bernanke said they are ready to do what it takes to limit any further slowdown; meaning sentiment ruling market again, as investors understood the U.S. may recover from the global economic slowdown quicker than other countries. Meanwhile Europe continues tumbling: The U.K house prices continue to plummet and economic data keeps worsening month over month, while in Europe banks continue facing defaults; sentiment has turned dollarpositive, and despite the rise in stocks yesterday, high yieldings were set aside: investors seems ready to give dollar another chance.
A side note for commodity currencies: gold and oil are loosing ground fast quoting these days, are critical support levels, pushing small dollars, like Aud and Cad down against greenback: if gold manages to break under $ 770.00 and Oil under $ 65,00 a barrel, we will see further falls in both currencies and a more important American dollar recovery.
Today we have no interesting news to take care of, yet you can check them in Fxstreet.com calendar, following this link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on October 20, 2008 at 12:12 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik4 Comments »
Regarding this pair, we have 4 hours charts slightly bullish, following an ascendant trend line that the pair has tested a few minutes ago. With indicators a bit exhausted to the upside, the pair could remain bullish as long as the trend line @ 101.50, resist and (as in the case of other majors) optimism rules the American stock’s session. From actual 101.70 resistances will be at 102.10, followed by the zone around 102.50 and finally 102.83. A break under 101.50 ( and a bearish Dow Jones Industrial Average) will send the pair, first to the zone arond 101.20, followed by a more interesting congestion zone between 100.65/83 and finally 100.25.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/yen4-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on October 20, 2008 at 11:32 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains flat in 4 hours charts, quoting around 1.3415 , yet feeling some bearish pressure. This pair has a natural support in the zone around 00/05, meaning under this not that important zone, 1.3400, we could see some bearish continuation the more interesting congestion zone between 1.3357/73, that could even extend to 1.3345, last week minimum. Under that point, the pair will turn bearish and try to reach the zone around 1.3260. Regarding resistances, we have 1.3436, 1.3462, the zone around 1.3500 and finally 1.3540, although I can’t see the pair reaching that top today, unless we have a “full of optimism” stocks session in America.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/euro1-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on October 20, 2008 at 10:21 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Things are beginning more calmer this week, as the Asian stocks shown same gains last night, yet for now nothing is said: credit crunch and global recession fears are still there, like aDamocle´s sword hanging above investor´s heads. Sentiment continues ruling the market, and today the day seems optimistic, let’s see what America has for us.
These are the most relevant news for today GMT:
14:00 USD Leading Indicators (Expected -0.2% Previous -0.5%)
14:00 USD Bernanke Testifies at House Budget Committee on Economy
Majors for today
Posted on October 17, 2008 at 12:13 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Market remains choppy, and majors will probably continue that way:
The Eur/usd has a nice support around 1.3380, yet seems bearish, so under it it will probably continue first, to the zone around 1.3345 and finally the 1.3300/20. I can’t see the pair moving to the upside, but resistances today are at 1.3454 and then 1.3510.
On the opposite, I see Gpb/usd slightly bullish for today, with a first resistance around 1.7326, followed by the zone around 1.7380 and finally 1.7440. Supports today will be at 1.7228, 1.7164 and the low side of the range at 1.7130.
The Usd/Jpy remains bearish in bigger charts, although the pair is just moving with US stocks, and probalby continue a while like this until stocks settle down. Only above 101.60 the pair could gain bullish momentum, first to the zone around 101.90, and then 102.30 above which the pair could continue at least to 102.65. Supports from actual price will be at 100.85, 100,54 an the zone around 100.00
Have a great day!
Free access day
Posted on October 16, 2008 at 11:20 in Live Webinars by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Iwill be holding a live webinar about Developing a Trading Systems in about 40 minutes, so post about majors will have to wait; you can join the webinar at the following link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=e1fe9208-e0a1-4008-be90-a02669f59993
After it, we will be at the beginning of American Sesion, let’s see what market tell us but that time.
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on October 16, 2008 at 10:19 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains moving in range in 4 hours charts, although the bearish sentiment weights more: after breaking the ascendant trend line we saw yesterday, the pair finally fill the gap at the beginning of the Asian session and even approach to the the key level around 1.3320, the monthly Fibo level posted a few days ago. The pair is forming a probable continuation figure and from actual 1.3430 supports will be at 1.3405 and the minimums zone around 1.3360, also the ascendant trend line of the probable figure: a candle opening under it, could trigger some interesting bearish momentum, first to the zone around 1.3300/20 and then to 1.3258, last week minimum. Although I don’t see likely a continuation under it today, under that minimum, the 1.2900 will certainly be exposed for the next days. Regarding resistances, the zone around 1.432 will be the first to consider, followed by 1.3491, 1.3536 and finally the zone around 1.3585.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eu-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting another day
Posted on October 16, 2008 at 9:49 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
October 16th. Hi everybody, hope you are fine! Greenback and Japanese yen are back. The optimism last finally just a couple of days (I was hoping on at least a couple of weeks) as fears of a global recession were triggered again; stocks fell around the world, and currency market remains under pressure, although not as much as in the past weeks. In fact, economies are tumbling around the world and credit crunch, or recession,are all part of it. The economic slowdown in here to stay: how long would it last, how deep will it go, is the question we are all making today. May believe is that still we are away from the light at the end of the tunnel. Let me know what you think!
These are the most relevant news for today GMT:
12:30 USD Consumer Price Index (Expected 0.1% Previous -0.1% )
12:30 USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (Expected with no changes at 0.2%)
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed for October (Expected -9.4 Previous 3.8)
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index for August (Expected -0.8% Previous 1.2%)
Usd/Jpy and the Asian session
Posted on October 15, 2008 at 23:45 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The usd/Jpy is quoting right now around 99.30, and ready to continue: if Tokyo stocks run to the downside, the pair will continue falling: under 99.08, the pair will try to reach the 98.80 zone, ant under this 98.50; remember the decimal zone between 50/60 is always a good support/resistance for the pair, and a break trough, usually gives a 20/30 quick run. If the pair can break the monthly minimum at 97.91, the target for the movement will be the monthly ascendant trend line, around 96.10.
A side note: this pair tends to the daily pivot point after New York close and in the first couple of hours of the Asian session, yet quite hard it could accomplish it right now (the pivot point is at 100.54) but above 100.10 is more likely. don’t forget to watch stocks!
Tags: usdjpy
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Tags: gbpusd
Usd/Jpy in the short term
Posted on October 15, 2008 at 11:58 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Japanese yen is recovering ground and the pair has reached the 38.2% of the last upleg, being the zone around it, 101.10, the key level to consider today: we have the 20 periods MA and an ascendant trend line, all around that zone: if the pair manages to break to the downside, it can trigger a bearish rally with next supports at 100.45 and finally 99.90 zone. On the other hand,only above the 101.50 zone the pair could recover some bullish strength with next resistances at 101.85/92 and finally the zone around 102.25.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/yen3-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on October 15, 2008 at 11:32 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd remains flat with no clear definitions in 4 hours charts. Slightly bullish, I see a congestion zone around 1.3690, that if the pair pass trough will find next resistance around 1.3740/60 zone, followed by 1.3785 roof of actual range: above it, we could see more interesting bullish movements, first to the zone around 1.3820 and finally the zone around 1.3865. Regarding supports, under 1.3620 the pair will try to reach the 1.3585 zone, and then the 1.3530. A confirmation around this zone could send the pair bearish for the rest of the day, with next support around 1.3450/70. Under this last, the pair will try to fill the gap of the beginning of the week, at 1.3410.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eur2-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on October 15, 2008 at 11:09 in Starting the day, Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. As expected, market remains calmer, yet choppy: things are not completely clear at the moment, and sentiment has not settle down, and that’s what we can read on charts: majors move without a certain trend and remain in ranges as investors try to make up their minds. I can not consider any longer term trade either today, and believe things need to cool a lot more to even think of one. Anyway, let’s take a look at each major, to find out where we can go today.
These are the most relevant news for today GMT:
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales for September (Expected -0.6% Previous -0.3%) and Core Retail Sales (Expected -0.2% Previous -0.7%)
12:30 USD Producer Price Index for September (Expected -0.4% Previous -0.9%) and Core PPI (Expected with no changes at 0.2%)
12:30 USD Empire Manufacturing for October (Expected -10 Previous -7.4)
16:15 USD Bernanke Speaks to Economic Club of New York
Gbp/Usd short and medium term
Posted on October 14, 2008 at 13:13 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has started the week with a really strong recovery, and daily charts are suggesting a continuation to the upside: the pair is right now above the 38.2% of the last down leg, and seems likely to close above it; Momentum indicator has reached a bottom and its turning up, while CCI is pointing also to break the 0.00 line: this means that although clear signals are not there, the pair is tending higher.I can see a tough congestion zone around 1.7710 and the 50% retracement around 1.7722, so a daily opening above this 38.2% and above today´s close, will probably be a good bullish opportunity to the zone around 1.7700/30 next probable target. If the pair manages to break above it, well, 1.7930 zone will be the next to consider (see the daily chart attached) the 61.8% of the rally. On the other hand, under the 1.7420, the bullish continuation will probably be denied and the pair will try to target the zone around 1.7300 and under it, 1.7220.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbp-daily-300x225.gif
4 hours charts, are showing the pair has probably reached a top today, with a first support around 1.7510, a really tought zone. If optimism continues and US stocks run high like yesterday, that zone will probably hold to the downside, and resistances to consider will be 1.7565 and today’s maximum around 1.7630. Under 1.7492, the pair will have 1.7455 and 1.7420 as supports for today.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbp2-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Starting the day
Posted on October 14, 2008 at 11:37 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
October 14th. Hi everybody how are you? Optimistic? Well, that seems to be the word of the week: markets are optimistic about the future, the bailouts… and many investors may be thinking “we are back to happy days”; (Have you seen the Youtube video about the crisis, performed by to English actors?, if not.. I have the link somewhere, I’ll post it after the analysis) I read news and comments in every page you can imagine and again all it’s blame on RISK, yet today, not aversion but APPETTITE. The fact is that again market is moving on pure sentiment, and well, European and Commodity majors are running high, and Yen is running low, all driven but this optimistic sentiment. Is it here to stay? Well i don’t think so, although I believe we are facing calmer days than last weeks ones. The supportive statements from governments around the world are making a positive effect, yet in a week or two, the real economic situation of each country ot region, will become to weight again. And then, the less weaker will be the winner. But let’s seize the day..and find out where chances are today.
I’ll be back in a few minutes with some technicals for today!
These are the most relevant news for the rest of the day, GMT:
16:15 USD ECB’s Trichet Speaking in New York
21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (Previous -43)
Usd/Jpy in the short term
Posted on October 13, 2008 at 12:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik4 Comments »
The Usd/Jpy is slightly bearish in 4 hours charts, although for now, it’s holding above the 100.00 zone, also an ascendant trend line that has tested a few minutes ago. The pair has a first resistance zone around 100.48, and above it, the pair could easily return to the daily maximum, around 100.84 that if broken will take the pair to 101.18. Regarding supports, under 99.95 the pair will try to reach the zone around 99.42 and finally 99.05.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/yen2-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd what to expect?
Posted on October 13, 2008 at 11:36 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Looking at longer term charts, and following previous long term analysis, the pair has reached last Friday, the 61.8% of a long Fibonacci rally, from 1.1640 to 1.6038, the zone around 1.3320, and even pass trough in a momentum run proposed target for this fall, yet finally rebounded strongly. Weekly charts are quite over sold, and indicators are giving shy really shy signs of an upside turn, yet nothing clear for now. The longer term key points to consider will be, to the upside, the zone around 1.3800, above which we could see anupside extension at least to the zone around 1.41, and to the downside, the mentioned level: if 1.3300 is retested, the pair will certainly attempt to break it, being next major target the zone around 1.2900.
For today, 4 hours charts are “dirty” as indicators seem quite flat, although trend remains slightly bullish after the opening gap. Quoting around 1.3580, the pair must move above the 1.3620 zone, first resistance for today, to continue in that direction to 1.3670, and finally the zone around 1.3710. Regarding supports, only under 1.3553 the pair could regain bearish strength, first to 1.3505, followed by the zone around 1.3450/60 and finally to 1.3400 where the gap will be filled.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eur1-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
In the begining
Posted on October 13, 2008 at 10:33 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
October 13th. Hello everybody, hope you are fine! These last weeks market chaos, has seem to reached a top pike last Friday, when despite speeches, global coordinate rate cuts, and bailouts plans, stocks around the world continue falling heavily, with greenback and Japanese yen the over all winners across the board. Yet the announcement of a 5 point plan of action from the G7 (that meet in Washingtonduring the weekend) and anagreement by Euro zone leaders in Paris to bail out their banks as needed both helped to lift market confidence that action is being took to resolve the credit crisis. Although this is only the beginning, as no action has been taken yet, greenback is mostly lower from Asian opening particularly against Euro, Gbp, and commodity currencies.
Today we have a Bank Holiday in the U.S. and Canada, and for the rest of the day, we have no fundamental news to take care of.
I’l lbe back in a minutes with technicals. Have a great trading day!
Market today
Posted on October 10, 2008 at 12:51 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you are fine! I was wishing for some calm in markets… yet it remains there, a wish. Stocks continue falling all around the world, and this is not just a “black Monday” but seems to be “the black week” although at this moment, I don’t even dare to affirm it will just be a week; of course, eventually we will see a return of optimism to markets, and all be joy. When and how? I don’t know.
Following yesterday’s analysis, both, Euro and GBP are set co continue following in the short and the longer term, agaisnt greenback: Euro must break under 1.3500, and the longer term target posted earlier this month will be exposed, @ 1.3320. Gbp, has already tested the 1.6800 zone, and despite the upside quick correction, next key support will be around 1.6610.MeanwhileJapanese yen, is targeting the base of previous long term chart analysis, close to 96.00. In a few minutes, New York Stocks will open, and President Bush will give a speech: it will certainly trigger major rallies in stocks, and forex market: pay attention to it!
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on October 9, 2008 at 11:32 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
October 9th. Despite the rate cuts, the bailouts, and the global intent to save markets, things are still far from order. Market remains volatile and with no certain direction, while stocks around the world tend to shy recoveries, not even close to this week lost. Anyway, things should be some way, more “quiet” from now on, and markets will tend to stabilize.
Looking at 4 hours charts, the Eur/Usd is moving in an ascendant channel, more a correction than a bullish run. Indicators are also tending higher, yet the pair remains under pressure and seems hard to see ir regain ground. Quoting right now @ 1.3680, under 1.3644, first support for today, the pair should continue to the zone around the ascendant trend line, at 1.3614; above this line, the pair could gain some bearish momentum, first to the zone around 1.3580 and finally the key level 1.3550 that if broken, will open further down side bias. Resistances from here will be at 1.3710, the zone around 1.3756 and today’s maximum, around 1.3790, above which, the pair will try to test the 1.3820 zone.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eur-300x225.gif
The Gbp/Usd, continues clearly bearish at the time, and although is early to say, the pair is breaking the monthly ascendant trend line, around 1.7300, suggesting a bearish continuation for next months, yet we will have to wait for further confirmation, at least a weakly clear opening under it. Quoting right now around 1.7290, the pair will find supports at 1.7250, followed by the zone @ 1.7215/25, and finally 1.7170, today’s minimum. A confirmation under it, will support the longer term bearish bias. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.7336, 1.7370 zone and finally 1.7420.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbp1-300x225.gif
Finally Usd/Jpy continues dancing with stocks mood, yet tending bearish: quoting right now @ 100.85 , first support will be the zone around 100.46 followed by 100.10, the zone around 99.75 and finally 99.30, that if broken, could send the pair to yesterday’s minimum, @ 98.60. Resistances from here, will be the zone between 101.25/40 and finally 101.85.
New rates around the world
Posted on October 8, 2008 at 11:28 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
This is what’s going on:
Actual Previous
CAD Overnight Rate 2.50% 3.00%
CHF Libor Rate 2.50% 2.75%
EUR Minimum Bid Rate 3.75% 4.25%
GBP Official Bank Rate 4.50% 5.00%
USD Federal Funds Rate 1.50% 2.00%
Starting another chaotic day
Posted on October 8, 2008 at 11:17 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody how are you!. I woke up, turn on the T.V., and the first thing I hear before even opening my eyes, was that stocks tumbled all around the world, in Asia and early European session; run to mi PC, to check out prices, and found out Japanese Yen running higher after breaking the 100.00 level, but that’s nothing compared to the announcement of the global synchronized rate cuts a few minutes ago, with Switzerlandand Canada cutting overnight rates and majors jumping hundreds of pips in seconds. The fact is market is right now, beyond technical analysis, hate to say this, but for me today, is a wait and see day. We do have in fact some fundamental releases scheduled, yet with Central Banks announcing cuts here and there.. well, who cares about Pending Home Sales in the U.S.? Anyway, you can check all the news to be released today in the following link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Anyway, I will continue making longer term analysis, today, and try to keep you informed about what’s going on aroudn the world.
Have a great day!
Special Report
Posted on October 7, 2008 at 12:36 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Fxstreet.com team has posted another special report regarding the global crisis, and it’s worth to be read, so if you like to, follow next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-coverage/2008-10-07.html
Usd/Jpy short and long term view
Posted on October 7, 2008 at 11:53 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
This has been for far, my favorite pair since I started trading, as it has certain habits I could usually identify. If we take a look at puretechnical analysis, the pair is in fact, as Krishna said in his comment,moving inside a symmetric triangle, with the basein the zone @ 100.50/101.00, where we can find a considerable number of monthly high and lows. Yet if we draw an ascendant trend line coming from the historical chart minimum @ 79.70, to past March minimum at 95.77, we have the pair in a bigger triangle, with a previous long term bearish trend, suggesting that, if the pair manages to break under this last ascendant zone, the bearish trend should continue for a good number of years. Yet, 100.50 zone seems to be the first important support to consider: I believe a confirmation under 100.00 will surely take the pair to the 96.00 zone, the base of the channel; a monthly opening under it, no doubts will confirm longer term bearish continuation for the pair. On the other hand, if the pair rebounds in the mentioned line, unable to break it, we will surely have a very interesting bullish rally in the next months.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/yen1-300x225.gif
Turning the chart to weekly or even daily, we could see the bearish trend is contained by the 61.8% of the last bullish up leg, from 95.77 to 110.66 and despite yesterday’s run, daily charts show the pair close yesterday and opened today above that level, telling us the downside is still contained for now. Also, the CCI of 17 periods is well under the -200 level in weekly charts, in fact, around-277, when the historical minimum is around -306, telling us, that if we project a fall in the pair, continuous from here, the CCI over sold level and the ascendant trend line in monthly charts, should contain the downside and offer a bullish rebound.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/yenw-300x225.gif
To put it in just one line, the bearish continuation will depend mostly on the break trough of last March minimum around 96.00, and in the case the pair approaches to that zone and could not pass under, the bullish rebound will be quite interesting.
Turning to what could happen today, well after yesterday’s fall the pair quickly correct the 50% of the rally, and in fact, stays right now capped under the 38.2% of the bearish run: a 4 hours candle op pen above that level, @ 102.45 will surely made the pair retest the 103.10 zone, and above it, the pair will try to reach the 61.8% around 103.95, with an intermediate halt in the zone around 103.60. Supports, from actual price will be 101.90, the more interesting zone around 101.50 and finally 101.00.
A final note about the pair habits: in turmoil times, the pair moves in the American session, in the same direction U.S. stocks do: have you seen yesterday fall? well stocks did that. Take a look at DJIA once a while, and you can see where the pair will address for the rest of the day.
Tags: usdjpy
Starting the day
Posted on October 7, 2008 at 10:41 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
October 7th. Hello everybody hope you are fine. Well, previous post late yesterday, is a brief resume of what’s going on around the world, with panic ruling markets, but today things are just a bit cooler, and markets and majors are reversing some of the heaviest losses in their history seen yesterday. Yet the situation hasn´t changed: still market is waiting whether Europe will react and how, to their credit crunch. Easing rates seems the first step of the way, not only for Europe, but for the U.K. too, (in fact, Australia did it late yesterday) so don’t be surprise if this is just a pause in the bullish dollar trend.
I willl be back in a few minutes with more technical long term analysis. Have a great trading day!
Today, we have the following news, East Time:
09:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
11:00 USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks
13:15 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Expected 5.6B Previous 4.6B)
Worldwide markets falling apart
Posted on October 6, 2008 at 17:43 in Long-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The worldwide crisis has taken another step. Since the Asia opening on Sunday, things are getting really out of control, with two currencies taking advantage of the situation: American dollar and Japanese yen.
Stocks fell all around the word: the Nikkei trading index has fallen almost 5% in early trading hours, while European stocks fell even further, with the major indexes in London, Paris, and Frankfurt down nearly a 7% percent and the DJIA is also quite negative, 450 points at this moment. Oil has tumbled to below $90, the first time it has fallen that low since February before recovering slightly. Dollar rose against most rivals, except against the Japanese Yen. Contrary to logical thought that would suggest that greenback should be losing value on such news (let’s not forget last Friday employment report in America, the worst in more than 5 years) the currency continues strengthening. If you wonder why, the answer is not as complex as it seems: for the past weeks I have been telling the battle will be won not by the stronger but by the less weak. Dollar rise is not related to the final approval last Friday of the famous bailout plan (which has not created much expectations in the markets which has not created much expectations in the markets as recession is a fact in the US ), but it is related to concerns about the rest of the international financial system: the Euro zone is not only suffering from a slowdown in growth but their financial institutions are also fighting the credit crunch: Germany’s government orchestrated a $69 billion bailout of property lender Hypo Real Estate AG on Sunday and Belgium worked out a $6.5 billion bailout of Fortis. Still the Euro appears to have been hit by the assumption that each country must go solo after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that “each country must take its responsibilities at a national level.” In addition, the ECB said Thursday - after leaving its key lending rate unchanged - that inflation risks have declined, indicating to market watchers that the bank is closer to cutting interest rates in the zone.
England is far from being in better shape than the rest of Europe. In fact, the slowdown of that side of the Atlantic, has begun there and as the BOE meets next week, we shouldn’t be surprised if the Monetary Policy Committee votes to cut rates considering the slew of recent disappointing data.
Besides when things turn dark like these days, the global demand for long-term US government debt rise and despite they offer very little return, they are also considered nearly risk-free, a safe haven asset.
On the other hand Japanese yen strength is also typical of turmoil times: fragile market conditions usually boost the low-yielding Yen against higher-yielding counterparts. The Japanese currency is seen as a good refugee in uncertain times as it is the case of Treasuries, also considered to be a safe haven.
The Japanese system is not even close to the rest of the world general slowdown and having a very low interest rates leaves limited space for them to go lower.
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on October 6, 2008 at 13:23 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
In a few minutes, we have the Dow Jones opening in the U.S. and stocks reaction will certainly define the pair for the rest of the day: having broken to the downside, the pair is targeting right now the key level around 102.65, that won’t hold if U.S stocks fall following the rest of the markets: under that support zone, next levels to consider will be 102.15 and finally the zone around 101.72. Regarding resistances, only above 103.25 the pair could recover the zone around 103.48 with next resistances at 103.82 and finally 104.23
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd long and short term
Posted on October 6, 2008 at 11:50 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Looking at longer term charts, in this case monthly, the pair has broken the ascendant trend line that we have been following just in the first days of the month (meaning that still there is no full confirmation from that side, although if we turn the chart to weekly, the line has been broken giving a first bearish confirmation in longer term); on the other hand, we have the RSI crossing to the downside the 50 line, suggesting also more bearish continuation, after spending months well over bought; also notice the pair is breaking under the 61.8% level of the last up leg, 1.2483/1.6038. Although the violence and speed of these last 3 months fall, the pair remains bearish in the longer term, and the target zone I’m considering for this movement is @ 1.2900, as I see a huge congestion around it, with many monthly minimums and maximums. Of course, don´t wait for a straight rally (sure, it could happen, as all in forex market) but still there are chances of a weekly pullback to the broken trend line (around 1.3920): failure to confirm above it, after pullback is complete, will be another huge confirmation of the bearish trend in the longer term, also if the pullbacks reaches the broken 61.8% and is unable to open above.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/eumo-300x225.gif MONTHLY CHART
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/euwe-300x225.gifWEEKLY CHART
Regarding today, the pair has found a bottom around 1.3542, and 4 hours charts look quite oversold, yet nothing the pair is paying too much attention: we could see some bullish correction, that will find resistances at 1.3640, 1.3682, and the zone around 1.3710, above which, the pair could attempt to fill the opening gap @ 1.3765, yet I can see it right now as highly probable; to the downside, under today’s minimum the pair will find next supports at 1.3520 and better, the zone around 1.3470
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on October 6, 2008 at 10:38 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. The American House of Representatives finally approve the bailout plan last Friday…and market react in consequence: trading desk are quickly leaving all risky positions (finding refugee in Japanese Yen that breaks higher all across the board, finally out of these last days range), while the European banking systems tumbles yet last Saturday membersof thezone held a meeting, where we saw a lot of positive talking yet no certain action defined to fight so. Stocks markets are falling all around the world, increasing fears of further crisis, while oil is close to break the barrier of $90.00 a barrel. Hard times for the world economy indeed, yet greater opportunities for us, forex traders.
There are no relevantnews to take coare of today, but you can check the following link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I will come back in a few minutes, with longer term analysis for majors. Have a great day!
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on October 2, 2008 at 11:56 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Jpy is still tending bearish in 4 hours charts, yet as commented before seems every dip to some interesting support becomes a good bullish opportunity. Quoting right now at 105.36, the zone around 105.20 has hold for now, and offer that kind of chance more than once today. If the pair gains momentum to the downside, should need to confirm under the descendant channel base clear in 4 hours charts, @ 105.05, to continue in that direction first to the zone around 104.82 and finally 104.30/40. Above 105.50/60 zone, first resistance for today, the pair could quickly approach to 106.00 (roof of the mentioned channel) and above it, 106.29 and 106.53 will be the next resistances at sight.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/yen-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Like to be informed? Full bailout coverage
Posted on October 2, 2008 at 11:14 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Fxstreet.com team stay awake all night long, working hard to help us with the fundamental side of the market, and here’s the result:
The Bailout Plan: The Senate approves the bill
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-coverage/2008-10-02.html
Also, they havemade a preview coverage of the ECB Meeting. Check it out at:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/central-banks-special-coverage-ecb/2008-10-02.html
Hope you enjoy reading it as much as me.
Gbp/Usd in the short term
Posted on October 2, 2008 at 11:03 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Anotherunstoppable bearish rally hear, the pair is right now attempting to break previous daily minimum; with no signs of exhaustion (not even talk about corrections) in 4 hours charts, the pair is addressing to next important support around 1.7562, (if daily minimum get’s broken) yet more likely the more stronger 1.7532 support. A confirmation under this last, will take the pair first, to the zone around 1.7476 and finally the year minimum, at 1.7441 that if broken, will find final support in the monthly ascendant trend line @ 1.7297. Resistances for today will be at 1.7670, 1.7727 and finally the zone around 1.7761.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/gbp-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on October 2, 2008 at 10:50 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd has hit a fresh 1 year minimum early in the European session, around 1.3855, and despite the pair is over sold in 4 hours, charts, seem ready to continue to the downside.Right now just above 1.3900, 1.3884 will be the first support to consider, followed by a tough congestion zone around 1.3841. Under this last, final objective for today will be 1.3816. Only above 1.3924, the pair could start a correcction to the upside, with next resistances at 1.3966/80 and finally the zone around 1.4035.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/10/euro-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on October 2, 2008 at 10:08 in Starting the day, Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
October 2nd. Hi everybody hope you are fine. Well, the U.S. senate approved the bank bailout package (still waiting for the final approval tomorrow at the House of representatives) pushing dollarhigher particularly against Euro,where thing are quite hard too (today we have rates in Europe, and Mr. Trichet’s speech, and also, a bailout plan proposed by France to the zone has been rejected by Germany), and the Pound, as the U.K. is very much the same as Europe in terms of resolving their own financial crisis. Meanwhile Japanese Yen strengths all across the board as most traders became reluctant to take risk ahead of today and tomorrow fundamental reports.
Today. we have the following news, East Time:
07:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision, expected with no changes at 4.25% (Trichet’s speech will be begin minutes later)
08:30 US Initial Claims 09/27 (Expected 475K Previous 493K)
10:00 US Factory Orders August (Expected -1.8% Previous 1.3%)
Japanese yen and American Dollar
Posted on September 30, 2008 at 11:58 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The pair fell heavily yesterday, following U.S. Stocks, yet already recovered almost the 50 % of the fall, reaching the daily pivot point (as usually does, after this movements) Quoting around105.15, and with indicators suggesting a bullish continuation, the pair is very close to first resistance zone, at 105.25, that should be broken in order to continue ti the next tough zone around 105.50/60. Only above this last the pair could gain bullish momentum, first to 106.05 and finallythe zone around 106.38. Supports from here will be at 104.86, followed by the zone around 104.45 and finally 104.10. As is happening these last weeks, any dip in the pair seems to be a great buying opportunity.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/yen6-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
The Gbp/Usd for the next hours
Posted on September 30, 2008 at 11:46 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Sep 30th. Consolidating around 1.8030, the pair has not a certain direction at the moment, yet keeping the bearish over view: under 1.7984, the pair will attempt to continue to next support zone around 1.7920/30, that if broken will trigger more bearish momentum being next supports 1.7852 and finally 1.7810. Regarding resistances, only above 1.8085 the pair could recover the 1.8115 that once broken will deny the bearish continuation and send the pair first, to 1.8190 and finally the zone around 1.8240.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp10-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Tags: Actual newsEur/Usd for today
Posted on September 30, 2008 at 11:23 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Sep 30th: Despite yesterday´s turmoil, the pair remains bearish in 4 hours charts. Quoting around 1.4330, take a look at the following chart: the pair is fighting the last barrier, the 76.4% retracement of the last up leg; only a confirmation under it could send the pair first to the zone @ 1.4275, followed by 1.4220 and finally 1.4180. To the upside, resistances will be at 1.4365, followed by the zone around 1.4390 and finally the descendant trend line that converges with the 61.8% of the same rally, around 1.4425.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eur7-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on September 30, 2008 at 10:33 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Sep 30th. Hi everybody hope you are fine. I saw some comments in majors daily technicals posted today, so from now on, I will add the date at the beginning of each, in order to avoid any confusion. Anyway, there’s no much to add to what we have been seeing these days: the Congress failed to approved the bailout (aren’t you a bit tired of hearing about it? I am) triggering panic in stocks, that fell sharply, and causing spikes (huge ones in fact) later in the American session against greenback, neutralized by this moment.Yet not only the U.S. is in trouble: Euro zone inflation eased for the second month in a row in September, prompting speculation that the ECB could soon cut interest rates amid increasing risks of an economic downturn, not to mention troubled banks in Germany and France recession. Again, forces are fighting not to claim the stronger as the winner, but the less weak, and in between market offers short term oportunitties all across the board. For today, we have the following news, East Time, in the U.S.:
[*]09:45 Chicago PMI September (Expecte 54.0 Previous 57.9)[*]10:00 Consumer Confidence September (Expected 55.0 Previous 56.9)Have a great day!
Risk management and stop loss
Posted on September 29, 2008 at 11:56 in Live Webinars by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
I have been asked about how to manage risk, and place stop losses a few days ago: in half an hour, I will be conducting a webinar about it, and if you wish so, place the material latter here.
You can register following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=326d0b97-dee9-4ae6-963d-861d20dd2db1
See you there!
Usd/Jpy resting
Posted on September 29, 2008 at 10:41 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is as always, dancing alone. With no clear direction as the pair remains contained in range, major trend is still slightly bearish, yet 105.00 zone is still the base of any attempt to break lower, and a great rebound zone once reached. from actual 106.25, and with a congestion zone very close to the upside, only above 106.62 the pair could move further to the zone around 107.00 and finally 107.27; under 106.05, next important supports will be at 105.55 and 105.20 both proved rebound zones these last days.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/yen4-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
The Gbp/Usd for the rest of the day
Posted on September 29, 2008 at 10:17 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik4 Comments »
The pair is falling unstoppable (already 400 pips from the maximum) and without signs of finding a near term bottom, after clearly broken the ascendant daily trend line that was guiding the pair. Actual minimum around 1.7960 will be the first support to consider, yet under it, the pair could easily continue to the zone around 1.7910/20, that does not seem strong enough to hold: a confirmation under it, will send the pair to 1.7850/60, stronger zone and tops for today. From actual 1.8005 resistances will be at 1.8040, followed by the zone around 1.8100, 1.8155 and finally the zone around 1.8229.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp9-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on September 29, 2008 at 9:57 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The Eur/Usd started the week strongly bearish with a gap of nearly 70 pips that is far from covering. Quoting right now around 1.4330, the pair has broken to the downside the flag or descendant channel it was forming in 4 hours charts, and so, denying the bullish continuation seen last week. From actual price, resistances will be at 1.4357, followed by 1.4405/10 and finally 1.4460, pullback to the base of the channel: if the pair is unable to regain above it today, the bearish continuation will get strength. Regarding supports, under 1.4320the pair could retest the zone around 1.4300, yet if broken nest important support and probable target for today willbe 1.4240.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eur6-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the bailout week
Posted on September 29, 2008 at 9:36 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you are fine. Greenback rose at the beginning of the week and continues, as the American White House and the Congress seem to have reached an agreement on the bailout $700 billion plan, after debating all week end, to avoid more panic in the markets. At the moment, the Sterling and the Euro are the ones suffering the most, helped by evidence emerged suggesting that the banking crisis is spreading to Europe. Anyway the final bailout plan is still waiting for a formal society presentation, and that’s supposed to happen today : be aware volatility is set to continue high this week.
These are the most relevant news in the U.S. for today, East Time:
08:30 Personal Income (Expected 0.2% Previous -0.7%)
08:30 Personal Spending (Expected 0.2% Previous 0.2%)
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on September 26, 2008 at 12:28 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Japanse yen is tending higher and so, the pair looks quite bearish in 4 hours charts. However, has rebounded around 105.10/20 zone, first support for today, that seems pretty vulnerable at the moment: take a look at this 4 hours chart and see how many times the pair rebounded around it, making it stronger each time; a break trough, will trigger more bearish momentum and take the pair first, to the zone around 104.68, ( and then 104.35 althought I can’t see the pair falling that much. To the upside, first resistance will be around 105.55 (quite tough these days) and above, the zone around 105.90.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/yen3-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd for the next hours
Posted on September 26, 2008 at 11:57 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
4 hs charts are showing the pair has managed to come back under the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci level, yet found support at the 200 EMA, and an ascendant daily trend line. The pair is trapped in range, with no certain direction clear, yet above 1.8440, the pair could regain the Fibo zone around 1.8480, above which next resistance will be the zone between 1.8510/20. Above this last, the pair could regain bullish momentum, to 1.8560/70 zone. Regarding supports, 1.8370 will be the first to consider, followed by the zone around 1.8330.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp8-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
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Posted on September 26, 2008 at 11:42 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
At the moment, the pair is moving inside a descendant channel, that looking at daily charts, could be consider a flag, a continuation figure. As long as the base remains intact (today @ 1.4485) major charts could offer clear signs of a bullish continuation, above the roof (today @1.4700) Anyway, only above 1.4646, first resistance for today, the pair can approach to the 1.4700/10 zone, that if broken could trigger more bullish rallies, to the zone between 1.4745/60. Regarding supports, under 1.4590 the pair will approach to the tough zone around 1.4550, and finally the mentioned base of the channel (remember that will change along the day, right now around 1.4510).
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eur5-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on September 26, 2008 at 11:16 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody hope you are fine. Quite impressive movements we have yesterday by the end of the American session, on a decline in crude oil and gold prices, as market sentiment turned against risk after a second day of testimony byBen Bernanke andHenry Paulson on the bailout $700 billion plan to save the U.S. economy also on a general optimism on Congress approval. Still I have my doubts about if this plan will help really the credit markets. For today, we have just two fundamental news to take care of, in the American session at 8:30 East time, the GDP expected with no changes, and the Michigan University Survey about Economic Sentiment expected to the downside. I will be posting the daily technicals in a few minutes.
Have a great day!
Gbp/Jpy in the longer term
Posted on September 25, 2008 at 13:32 in Long-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
i have been asked about this particula pair, and the chances of a bullish continuation. Krishna says:
I am counting this way
1st wave starting point - 250 to 220
2nd wave - 220 to 240
3rd wave -240 to 192
4th wave - 192 to 215.70
5th wave - 215.70 to 185
now A-B-C correction should come atleast 50-60% of entire rally which may take this pair above 220 levels. Either JPY will depreciate to 113 levels or else GBP may appreciate to above said levels to 1.93/97 levels
So, taking a look at weekly charts, what I can see there is that: above the 198 levels, that the pair is targetting right now, we can see a major correction underway, not exaclty to the 220 levels, maybe better approaching to the descendant trend line around 210.00 but bullish finally. Indicartors are also turning downside up so above the mentioned key zone around 198.00 you have a point. But right now, I see Japanese yen against dollar with more chances of reaching 113 than GBP reaching 1.95/97. By this time of the year and till next February, Japanese yen is more likely to fall as usually does till the end of the fiscal year of Japan, while GBP economic outlook is on doubt right now. Anyway I believe in the longer term, the bullsih outlook is ok, unless the pair manages to break under these last weeks minimums that for me seems quite unlikely at the moment.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gby-300x225.gif
Tags: Gbp/Jpy
Eur/Usd trade updated
Posted on September 25, 2008 at 12:16 in Trading Opportunities by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has reached the suggested target, as commented earlier, the zone around 1.4640/60 seems to be a “buyers” zone. Having fundamental news in a few minutes, take your 40 pips now, and let’s wait for another!.
Tags: eurusd
Eur/Usd in a rebound zone
Posted on September 25, 2008 at 11:30 in Trading Opportunities by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair seems unable to break under actual 1.4640/60 zone, offering a trading oportunity: rebound to the upside, stop losses well under 1.4620 targetting the zone around 1.4680 and then 1.4700.
Tags: eurusd
Usd/Jpy and the stay in range mode
Posted on September 25, 2008 at 11:13 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Jpy has entered in this range mode and stay there most of the week, but as days gone by, the pair has lost the bearish momentum. Tending slightly bullish, the pair seems ready to continue to the upside, to the zone around 106.20 and then 106.60 close to the roof of the channel starting in 4 hours charts. a Confirmation above this, could take the pair first, to the zone around 107.00 and above this, to 107.40 (gap zone also a descendant daily trend line). Regarding supports watch the 105.50/60 zone that has probe a great short term rebound zone these days, and above it, around 105.20 even better.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/yen2-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd in the short term
Posted on September 25, 2008 at 10:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The pair remains bullish in 4 Hours charts, and quoting around 1.8600, well above the daily 38.2% Fibonacci level and guided by an ascendant trend line, yet unable to continue for now, although a fresh 4 week high at 1.8668. Above 1.8635, the maximum could be re tested, and above it, next resistances will be the zone around 1.8710 and finally the tough 1.8800 level. Regarding supports, only under 1.8555 we could see some retracement, first to the zone around 1.8514, and then the zone between 1.8480/60, under which, the pair could gain some bearish momentum, at least to the zone around 1.8400.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gb1-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
The Eur/Usd for today
Posted on September 25, 2008 at 9:38 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Although the sideways moves, a clear triangle has been broken in 4 hours in the Eur/Usd, yet we have some divergences with technical indicators, wich I don’t like as the upside, for now, seems limited; the zone between 1.4760/70 will be the first resistance to consider As any confirmation above, will trigger the pair bullish, first to the zone around 1.8410, followed by the weekly maximum at 1.4867. Regarding supports, under 1.4695, the pair will find a interesting “buyers” zone this days around 1.4650, and deeper, around 1.4610. Only under this last the upside continuation will be deny.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eur3-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on September 25, 2008 at 9:19 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. I had to attend some personal issues yesterday, and I was unable to be here, my apologizes. Yet market is always there, and Wednesday choppy trading is now turning into a greenback decline as market players began to worry whether the U.S. Congress will give the go-ahead to the famous financial bailout plan within this week, or wait and trigger some more panic in the markets.These are the most relevant news for today:
8:30 USD Unemployment Claims (Expected 450K Previous 455K)
8:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (Expected -1.6% Previous 1.3%) and Core Durable Goods Orders (Expected -0.5% Previous 0.7%)
10:00 USD New Home Sales (Expected 510K Previous 515K)
I’ll be right back with some technical’s for today.
Starting a new day
Posted on September 24, 2008 at 10:17 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you are fine. Things haven’t changed that much since yesterday, and in fact won’t change for long: the American crisis is still there, in the headlines, while Europe and England are suffering economic slowdown also. And early this morning fundamentals remains us so: the German IFO survey came out worst than expected, pointing for an ECB rate cut in the near future, yet nothing clear at the moment; in England how ever, a rate cut in the short term seems more likely, after BOE member Blanchflower keeps asking for it, as the slowdown continues to spread. Anyway none of this is still a fact, and at this point majors seem to consolidating before recovering these last days volatility, that could be triggered any moment from here till Friday as we have a bunch of fundamental reports this last 3 days of the week: you can check them all at Fxstreet.com calendar, following next link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Still at the moment i don´t know from where could greenback gain some strength… do you? I’ll be back in a few minutes with the daily technicals.
Have a great trading day!
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