Posted on April 24, 2008 at 19:58 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
So are you buying into (literally) into the Dollar’s rally?Or are you skeptical of this move?
The EUR/USD is pulling back and presenting a swing buy opportunity on today’s action.Like any and all true swing plays it is a trend following set up with a contrarian entry.In other words, you’re following the overall trend but are entering on a correction.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/04/24/042408eurdaily.gif
The notes on the chart show the area of buying opportunity as prices pull back into the support of the Wave. The "POV" means point of validity and that shows where the buy would no longer be valid.
Is the U.S. Dollar’s rally too far too fast?
Posted on April 24, 2008 at 19:24 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/04/24/042408dxdaily_7.gif
This week’s Chart Pattern Trading webinar (4/22)
Posted on February 4, 2008 at 16:10 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Tonight at 10:30pm EST the RBA will release its decision and statement on rates.The AUD/USD is currently poised to make a run at 0.9100 and with the expectations of rate hike (.25 basis to 7.00%) the level could surely be expected to be broken to the upside.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/02/04/020408aud15.gif
The interesting scenario becomes if the rates are not hiked at the current wedge is tested to the downside breaking the short term intraday uptrend.
We’ll have to play this pattern to both sides (like all rising or falling patterns) and if the continuation fails, then be ready for the support uptrend line to be broker and play the reversal. - Corey, Autochartist.
Join
more to come!
Questions?email Corey at support@autochartistu.com or leave a comment here at the blog.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on January 8, 2008 at 15:36 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Both these set ups are sideways market patterns so they must occur in either the accumulation or distribution market cycles.
The rectangle pattern in the USD/JPY has an interesting option to playing a breakout.Instead — because of the current market cycle and the width of the pattern — you can short the resistance and buy support.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/08/010807jpy30ac.gif
The USD/CAD has a more classic breakout/breakdown set up with the symmetrical triangle.
The 1.0000 level will be one to watch as this is an important psychological level.The breakdown will require that this level be broken.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/08/010807cad60ac.gif
Both these pairs have excellent secondary confirmation from markets other than the U.S. Dollar Index futures.Check out the video.
Click here for a 21-day free trial of Autochartist and the INTRO chart pattern trading video series.
How to use “hot zones”
Posted on January 7, 2008 at 21:50 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Knowing when hot zones will occur and trading during this time is a balancing act.
Chartist trade the price action but never forget the psychological impact of data.
Here’s a video about how to walk the tightrope.Click here to watch it.
Be sure to tune into the Autochartist webinar each Tuesday at 11am EST right here at FXStreet.
The jobs number, yen, cananda, & crude
Posted on January 4, 2008 at 15:01 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
It’s all about the JOBS this Friday morning.This is the 1st piece of significant data this year and should be an interesting release as all traders have probably not quite made it back to the office.
The USD/JPY has been weak on the daily chart but it’s the short term charts that are typically your best chance to enter pre-release.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010407jpydailyac.gif
The goal to is have an entry trigger before the data is released, like in this 8:15am EST alert from Autochartist.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010407jpy15ac.gif
What’s the impact on the dollar-canada from record crude prices?
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010407cad60ac.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010307cldaily_4.gif
With the continued dollar weakness and crude oil strength look for shorting opportunities on the USD/CAD.Stay tuned for updates on that.
Chart Patterns & Pip Movement webinar
Posted on January 1, 2008 at 23:35 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Get more free video & commentary at raghee.com
All Autochartist Direct subscribers get access to FXPowerStats Advanced.
Trading during the holidays…?
Posted on December 27, 2007 at 18:11 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Autochartist FX Power Stats Advanced
Sample Size: 1 Week
http://direct.autochartist.com/autochartist/powerstatsimages/2007-12-26_179_Price_Movement_Range_1440.png
AverageArea of high probabilityThe average number of pips that any currency moves per day is a product of a number of factors both fundamental and technical. PowerStat’s Pip Movement Ranges offers valuable insight into a currency pair. The six month average along with area of probability, tells you not only the average but also the high and low extremes of each currency.s potential for daily movement.
Sample Size: 6 Months
http://direct.autochartist.com/autochartist/powerstatsimages/2007-12-26_183_Price_Movement_Range_1440.png
AverageArea of high probability
All Autochartist Direct subscribers recieve free access to the FX Power Stats.
Pip Movement Range
Posted on December 17, 2007 at 15:15 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Ok check this out…it’s a new feature from Autochartist and it’s one that I will start using more often in the Chartology blog here at FXStreet.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/17/pip_movemnet_range_121407_2.gif
The average number of pips that any currency moves per day is a product of a number of factors both fundamental and technical. PowerStat’s Pip Movement Ranges offers valuable insight into a currency pair. The six month average along with area of probability, tells you not only the average but also the high and low extremes of each currency.s potential for daily movement.
Volatility can come from a number of factors . all of which cannot possibly be determined in real time. It is precisely for this reason that historical tendencies are helpful when trying to determine how far a pair may move, higher or lower, within its historical trading range.
PowerStat’s Pip Movement Ranges can supplement any trading plan. The typical pip movement of a pair offers a direct correlation to proper stop loss placement and lends accuracy to the prediction region. Any traders can supplement Autochartist Direct with PowerStats for a more compete perspective of potential chart pattern trade follow-through. For example, when trading chart patterns that have triggered, the pip movement range can help with determining the distance the market may travel. If a trader habitually finds that their profit targets are located in the higher end of the pip movement range, this could explain why targets may not be consistently reached. For traders who habitually find that they .leave profit on the table., the pip movement range can specifically point to the reason and allow a trader to move the profit target deeper within the range with the confidence that the placement is historically relevant.
Looking at the Dow and the Dollar-Yen
Posted on December 11, 2007 at 13:39 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Hi, Raghee here.Special thanks to Autochartist U. for yesterday’s updates.
While I wait for today’s FOMC announcement like everyone else I thought we could look deeper at some relationships on the charts.The Dow has been rallying the past three sessions and is sitting just under 13800.
I like trading futures, forex, and stocks…together.There are many markets that have advantageous correlation and when I look for these relationships I open the market wider to opportunity and secondary confirmation.
One of these is the Dow and the USD/JPY.
Take look at the next three charts…I’ll do more on this in my next post.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/11/121007indujpy_3.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/11/121107dj30ac.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/11/121107jpy15ac.gif
All charts used with permission from Autochartist and eSignal.
The USD/JPY makes an intraday double top
Posted on December 10, 2007 at 20:13 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
With two tests, the 111.76 mid-November and 111.88 recently, the USD/JPY has made a double top just shy of 112.00.
The intraday charts are ripe for a aggressive short off the 80 level.The short play will be valid as long as prices continue to find seller between 111.76 - 111.86.IN fact, as long as 112.05 is still not broken to the upside it’s a valid short.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/10/121007jpy60ac.gif
All charts used with permission from Autochartist chart pattern recognition software.
The EUR/USD and 1.5000 set ups
Posted on December 10, 2007 at 19:52 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
With the U.S. Dollar sitting above 76.00 there pullback on the EUR/USD seems that much more playable across multiple timeframes.
The daily chart shows the "V" reversal just shy of 1.5000.The reversal should not come as a surprise but with the support in the U.S. Dollar holding there is a definitely shift in the downtrend this month.
December brought the first shift in the market cycle since August…but before we all get ahead of ourselves…let’s not forget what happened in September and since.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/10/121007eurdailyac_3.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/10/121007eur240ac_3.gif
The 240 minute chart is breaking up through the channel pattern in front of Tuesday’s FOMC statement on interest rates.This reflects the current weakness in the U.S. Dollar since making the 73.81 high.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/10/121007eur15ac_2.gif The 30 minute chart shows the Autochartist prediction region (resistance) and the current support at 1.4700.
All charts used with permission from Autochartist chart pattern recognition software.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Get a 21-day trial to Autochartist here.
USD/CAD and USD/JPY set ups
Posted on January 8, 2008 at 15:36 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Both these set ups are sideways market patterns so they must occur in either the accumulation or distribution market cycles.
The rectangle pattern in the USD/JPY has an interesting option to playing a breakout.Instead — because of the current market cycle and the width of the pattern — you can short the resistance and buy support.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/08/010807jpy30ac.gif
The USD/CAD has a more classic breakout/breakdown set up with the symmetrical triangle.
The 1.0000 level will be one to watch as this is an important psychological level.The breakdown will require that this level be broken.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/08/010807cad60ac.gif
Both these pairs have excellent secondary confirmation from markets other than the U.S. Dollar Index futures.Check out the video.
Click here for a 21-day free trial of Autochartist and the INTRO chart pattern trading video series.
How to use “hot zones”
Posted on January 7, 2008 at 21:50 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Knowing when hot zones will occur and trading during this time is a balancing act.
Chartist trade the price action but never forget the psychological impact of data.
Here’s a video about how to walk the tightrope.Click here to watch it.
Be sure to tune into the Autochartist webinar each Tuesday at 11am EST right here at FXStreet.
The jobs number, yen, cananda, & crude
Posted on January 4, 2008 at 15:01 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
It’s all about the JOBS this Friday morning.This is the 1st piece of significant data this year and should be an interesting release as all traders have probably not quite made it back to the office.
The USD/JPY has been weak on the daily chart but it’s the short term charts that are typically your best chance to enter pre-release.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010407jpydailyac.gif
The goal to is have an entry trigger before the data is released, like in this 8:15am EST alert from Autochartist.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010407jpy15ac.gif
What’s the impact on the dollar-canada from record crude prices?
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010407cad60ac.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010307cldaily_4.gif
With the continued dollar weakness and crude oil strength look for shorting opportunities on the USD/CAD.Stay tuned for updates on that.
Get a 21-day trial to Autochartist
USD/CAD and USD/JPY set ups
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/08/010807jpy30ac.gif
The USD/
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/08/010807cad60ac.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010407jpydailyac.gif
The goal to is have an entry trigger before the data is released, like in this 8:15am EST alert from Autochartist.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010407jpy15ac.gif
What’s the impact on the dollar-canada from record crude prices?
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010407cad60ac.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2008/01/04/010307cldaily_4.gif
All Autochartist Direct subscribers recieve free access to the FX Power Stats.
Pip Movement Range
Posted on December 17, 2007 at 15:15 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Ok check this out…it’s a new feature from Autochartist and it’s one that I will start using more often in the Chartology blog here at FXStreet.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/17/pip_movemnet_range_121407_2.gif
The average number of pips that any currency moves per day is a product of a number of factors both fundamental and technical. PowerStat’s Pip Movement Ranges offers valuable insight into a currency pair. The six month average along with area of probability, tells you not only the average but also the high and low extremes of each currency.s potential for daily movement.
Volatility can come from a number of factors . all of which cannot possibly be determined in real time. It is precisely for this reason that historical tendencies are helpful when trying to determine how far a pair may move, higher or lower, within its historical trading range.
PowerStat’s Pip Movement Ranges can supplement any trading plan. The typical pip movement of a pair offers a direct correlation to proper stop loss placement and lends accuracy to the prediction region. Any traders can supplement Autochartist Direct with PowerStats for a more compete perspective of potential chart pattern trade follow-through. For example, when trading chart patterns that have triggered, the pip movement range can help with determining the distance the market may travel. If a trader habitually finds that their profit targets are located in the higher end of the pip movement range, this could explain why targets may not be consistently reached. For traders who habitually find that they .leave profit on the table., the pip movement range can specifically point to the reason and allow a trader to move the profit target deeper within the range with the confidence that the placement is historically relevant.
Looking at the Dow and the Dollar-Yen
Posted on December 11, 2007 at 13:39 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Hi, Raghee here.Special thanks to Autochartist U. for yesterday’s updates.
While I wait for today’s FOMC announcement like everyone else I thought we could look deeper at some relationships on the charts.The Dow has been rallying the past three sessions and is sitting just under 13800.
I like trading futures, forex, and stocks…together.There are many markets that have advantageous correlation and when I look for these relationships I open the market wider to opportunity and secondary confirmation.
One of these is the Dow and the USD/JPY.
Take look at the next three charts…I’ll do more on this in my next post.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/11/121007indujpy_3.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/11/121107dj30ac.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/11/121107jpy15ac.gif
All charts used with permission from Autochartist and eSignal.
The USD/JPY makes an intraday double top
Posted on December 10, 2007 at 20:13 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
With two tests, the 111.76 mid-November and 111.88 recently, the USD/JPY has made a double top just shy of 112.00.
The intraday charts are ripe for a aggressive short off the 80 level.The short play will be valid as long as prices continue to find seller between 111.76 - 111.86.IN fact, as long as 112.05 is still not broken to the upside it’s a valid short.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/10/121007jpy60ac.gif
All charts used with permission from Autochartist chart pattern recognition software.
The EUR/USD and 1.5000 set ups
Posted on December 10, 2007 at 19:52 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
With the U.S. Dollar sitting above 76.00 there pullback on the EUR/USD seems that much more playable across multiple timeframes.
The daily chart shows the "V" reversal just shy of 1.5000.The reversal should not come as a surprise but with the support in the U.S. Dollar holding there is a definitely shift in the downtrend this month.
December brought the first shift in the market cycle since August…but before we all get ahead of ourselves…let’s not forget what happened in September and since.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/10/121007eurdailyac_3.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/10/121007eur240ac_3.gif
The 240 minute chart is breaking up through the channel pattern in front of Tuesday’s FOMC statement on interest rates.This reflects the current weakness in the U.S. Dollar since making the 73.81 high.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/10/121007eur15ac_2.gif The 30 minute chart shows the Autochartist prediction region (resistance) and the current support at 1.4700.
All charts used with permission from Autochartist chart pattern recognition software.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
So in playing with the most common-sense approach to this movement in the dollar, this correction, it would be best to find trend following plays as the dollar is not even remotely close to a reversal until it reaches the 76.50 level.
And with each trading session, the level at which the dollar would make the shift from correction to reversal seems to be tightening.For that reason, many traders are looking to shorter time frames to find opportunities in a dollar that is heading lower but not with the same conviction and market sentiment.Can a market be too bearish to be shorted?A lot of traders think so.
Let’s take a look at some 60 minute set ups for today.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/29/112907eur60ac_2.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/29/112907cad60ac.gif
All charts used with permission from Autochartist chart pattern recognition software.
A new, free, cool tool to check out.
Posted on November 27, 2007 at 2:48 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
A quick update about a brand new tool — yes it’s free — that I wanted to share with you.It’s the Autochartist U. Desktop Reader that sends lessons, videos, articles, and more directly to your desktop so you’re the first to get new updates from Autochartist U.
If you like the updates here at the Chartology blog and the Chart Pattern Trading blogs, you’ll love the Reader…and if ya don’t you can always uninstall it.Try it.It’s cool and it’s free.
- Corey, Autochartist U.
Posted on November 26, 2007 at 17:04 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Hello, I’m happy to be able to fill for Raghee in today.She and I had a quick talk about holday trading just before she started her daily chat for raghee.com.
The thing on her mind was how to best handle trading during Novemeber and December.Her advice was to look longer term - to "slow down the action" by looking at 240 minute and daily charts.
In fact she mentioned during her chat that she typically takes Novemember and December off and comes back after the New Year.That would probably be best for most traders and investors. Make some key decision about your holdings and positions and then take a longer, slower approach.
Ofcourse this cannot be done on 15, 30, 60 minute charts.This would have to be done with longer term intraday charts like the 240 minute and the daily.So taking Raghee’s advice here are some "slower" charts that I will be watching this week.
There are quite a few set ups on the four hour charts and I like this because I have the perfect balance of intraday and end of day with this particular timeframe.In fact I have set up a specific 240 minute interval scan on my Autochartist so that I can get alerts for this interval as they appear.
I won’t forget the daily charts either but just remember that the risk tolerance for daily is higher than a 240 which I why I prefer the 240.
The daily chart of the EUR/JPY is following through on the turn lower and is now looking at the 160.00 major level as the support here on a relatively quiet day is holding.The remainder of the week will not be so quiet.Today is the only day without big economic releases.
The USD/JPY is heading lower towards 108.00 again.Prices did head below this key level but quickly found buyers.The downtrend on the 240 is not as steep as the daily chart but the set up with the falling wedge does offer a number of potential entries depending upon what prices do from here.
The EUR/USD continues to climb higher and 1.5000 seems inevitable.The level is dependant upon the continued U.S. Dollar weakness.Support is at the lower uptrend line and 1.4750.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/26/112607eurjpydailyac.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/26/112607jpy240ac.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/26/112607eur240ac.gif
All charts used with permission from Autochartist chart pattern recognition and alert software.
Dollar revisits lows as EUR/USD tests 1.4800
Posted on November 20, 2007 at 17:00 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
It’s not unusual to get mixed signals as prices rise to significant highs or lows.
Today is one of those days as the dollar has sold off from the bounce to 76.00 and has been — as expected — sold off and nearing prior support at 75.00. The dollar was able to stay above the "00" after attempts at 76.14 and 76.15.
The 74.97 low was set on November 9th.
The EUR/USD has pierced the 1.4800 to a high of 1.4814 but quickly sold off as the dollar found support at 75.22 - just two ticks from the "20" minor psychological level. Now trading below the 4800 level, the EUR/USD is pulling back slightly as there is no clear signal that the dollar is ready to tackle 75.50.
Interesting though is the break on the 30 minute chart of the EUR/USD. Prices has broke the uptrend line support of a rising wedge. This is an aggressive short entry with current support holding up prices at 1.4780.
The Dow has given the carry trades some reprieve this morning as the Dow is up +94 points an hour into the trading day. Prices have once again been pushed up through 13,000 but a look at the daily chart clearly shows that the Dow has a steep climb ahead to break the downtrend.
Why is the market up today? Crude is up +2.00 and XOM is up +3.10 along with it. Following suit, the dollar-yen found support at the 109.80 minor psychological number and has found buyers up through 110.00.
The 110.50 to 110.60 area will be watched closely for upside follow through in the USD/JPY as most intraday resistance is waiting there.
A couple other charts to look at while the dollar sits at 75.37 today, down -0.40 are the USD/CAD and USD/CHF.
The intrday 30 minute dollar-canada is trading within a symmetrical triangle with 0.9750 support to the downside and resistance at 0.9850.
The dollar-swissy is testing this morning support at 1.1067 with resistance at 1.1100 overhead — which if broken could trigger a break of the falling wedge pattern. (shown below)
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/20/102007eur30.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/20/112007jpy240.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/20/112007dj30.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/20/112007chf30ac.gif
All charts used with permission from Autochartist.
All charts used with permission from Autochartist.
Quiet start to the week.
Posted on November 19, 2007 at 17:45 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Maybe it’s Tryptophan, Turkey, and Thanksgiving but the markets are already acting like they’ve feasted on the big meal…
Then again it could be the range-bound dollar, lack of economic data today, and a weak Dow that’s got traders sitting on the sidelines.
The U.S. Dollar continues to find resistance at the 76.00 psychological level and prices are retreating quickly from any pierces through this key level.The dollar has made a short term bottom but this market is far from a significant reversal or even uptrend for that matter and that’s what trader must keep in mind if expecting the bounce to follow through.
The dollar’s intraday chart are beginning to transition to sideways cycles as the holiday week will certainly be a week of less participation and lower volume.
The Dow Jones continues to trade lower this morning as the 13,000 support level looks close to being tested.
The USD/JPY is strengthening with the Dow down almost -170 points.
The USD/JPY is testing the 110.00 level - and this must be particularly disheartening to the carry trades as the 109.00 level was where the bounce began.The current trend of the Dow suggests that there is likely to be strength only if buyers support 13,000 for a bounce and continuation up through the 13,250 level.
This weak Dow will continued to be watched closely by the carry trades as the current action is looking a lot like the USD/JPYsell off from early Summer.
The Dow is trading within a falling wedge pattern, keep an eye on the downtrend line resistance as this is what will be the first step to a bounce and reversal.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/19/111907dji30.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/19/111907jpy240.gif
All charts used with permission from Autochartist.
I’m in Vegas for the Traders Expo…so here’s a few market thoughs from the road
Posted on November 14, 2007 at 22:52 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The healthy bit of skepticism I have for the dollar’s move higher was well placed.I still feel that the Canada/Crude connection is one that will be partly responsible for the potential bottom. With that in mind notice that the dollar still has not been able to test and trade above 76.00 — in fact today represents a lower high.
My main play yesterday was a swing buy off the top line of the Wave in crude oil.But the rebound in crude wasn’t much help to the loonie as the support in the U.S. Dollar has pushed the dollar-canada up towards 0.9700 once again.
I’ll check in again tomorow…if you’re in Vegas be sure to stop by and say hello.
Crude + Canada = A bottom in the Dollar?
Posted on November 13, 2007 at 23:10 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Picking tops and bottoms has always been a risky way to trade…it’s a low percentage loser’s game. But that never stops traders from trying to do exactly that time and time again! There is currently a lot of talk of a bottom in the U.S. Dollar and for that we can look to three charts: the U.S. Dollar Index, the USD/CAD, and crude oil.
The relationship between the dollar and crude is established and should come to no surprise to traders of these two markets.
http://twopalmstrading.com/futures-trading/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/111307cl-dx24.gif
The inverse relationship can clearly be seen here on the chart above.Finding the correlation between the U.S.Dollar and the USD/CAD take a little deeper look.
http://twopalmstrading.com/futures-trading/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/111307cad-usd24-tm.gif
Here’s where it gets interesting.The dollar-canada spot rate (in color) actually started its upturn before the dollar (in black & white) did.
The Canadian Dollar has been the strongest currency over the past few months as it’s rise versus the U.S. Dollar can been seen on the chart as the trend on the chart has been steadily lower all of 2007.
If the U.S. Dollar will indeed make it’s turnaround now, it will likely be the USD/CAD chart that will signal the shift.Add to that the pullback on the crude oil chart, the Canadian Dollar has just a little more reason to lose ground versus the heavily shorted U.S. Dollar.
Before getting too carried away with a single up day on the Dollar Index though, consider that the dollar has had bounces that were shorted and currently the Dollar Index has fallen back below the 76.00 psychological level.The main distinction with the most recent dollar bounce is the Canadian Dollar weakness.It’s long way from a bounce to a reversal but it all starts with these kinds of small signals and shifts in correlated markets.
All charts used with permission from EZ2Trade Software.
Bullish Talk Taking the U.S. Dolllar to 76.00
Posted on November 12, 2007 at 16:34 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Talk is cheap but in this case, all the bullish talk about the U.S. Dollar has formed a neat term support level at the 75.00 psychological level.
Nothing has significantly changed between last week and today yet the dollar is poised to test 76.00 today - albeit in lower volume.
Every bounce in the dollar has been sold on strength and there’s little reason to think this bounce is an exception even with the talk of central bank intervention.
Fed Fund futures are still factoring a better than 60% chance of a December rate cut and the last week’s sell off in the stock market certainly stirred up more talk of rate cuts. Currently the Dow Jones has found buyers just above the key 13,000 level.
However, we must be ready if the 75.00 level does prove to be a bottom from which longer term support will be built upon.
Keep an eye on the 77.50 to 78.00 area as this is where a shift from weakness to strength will be made on the daily chart. Anything below the 77.50-78.00 level can be considered a correction and not a reversal.
Playing this bounce can allow USD/CHF, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD traders to play corrections.
The 76.00 level on the U.S. Dollar Index is primed for selling pressure and again, until there is a change in the dovish talk from Fed the selling pressure will return.
The upside target for the EUR/USD is 1.4700 if the 76.00 level proves to be too much for the dollar.
The USD/CHF set up could benefit from further strength or 76.00 dollar resistance.The downtrend line resistance will be the decision level from an entry.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/12/111207dji15tm.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/12/111207eur15.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/12/111207chf30tm.gif
All charts presented with permission from Autochartist pattern recognition software.
“Zooming In” for a USD/JPY set-up
Posted on November 7, 2007 at 19:50 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
(contributed by the Autochartist staff)
For anyone watching their Autochartist platform very early this morning there was a set up that alerted as the Asian session was closing for the day at 4:30am EST.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/07/110707jpy30_2.gif
This continuation entry on the channel down pattern had two possible entries marked as "1" and "2"
"1" represents a reversal entry long IF prices break up through the downtrend line of the channel.It also represents an ideal swing entry if prices bounce into the resistance of the downtrend line.However this conservative entry is one that will not also develop as a actionable trade.
"2" is the entry that follows the trend
The patient trader will wait for the trade to come to them.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/07/110707jpy154.gif
The patient trader was rewarded later into the day as the London markets were closing with a 15 minute triangle pattern alert.This set up in essence allowed us to "zoom in" to the congestion that developed as prices reached the prediction region highlighted on the 30 minute chart.
Looking for pattern breakout in the AUD/USD
Posted on November 7, 2007 at 16:10 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Watching the downtrend line resistance aroun 0.9380 for breakout with positive MACD Histogram confirmation.
The downside to the entry? 0.9400 psychological resistance. This morning’s high is 0.9398.
I would be open to the 0.9350 break to the downside and grab that short if gold also weakens through 834.00. But with gold up 12-13 today it’s tough to want to step out in front of that surge.
Watching and waiting to see which direction momentum takes!
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/07/110707aud151.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/07/110707aud152.gif
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Posted on November 7, 2007 at 15:36 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The sell off in the U.S. Dollar can’t come as a complete surprise to traders.
The dollar continued its slide through the 77.00 and 76.00 major psychological number as expectations for a December rate cutis being factored into the market due to the housing markets and banking credit issues.
The announcement by the Chinese stating that there will be a shift away from the U.S. Dollar to stronger currencies like the Euro accelerated the dollar sell off during last night’s Asian session approx 9:00pm EST.This further reflects the global sentiment that the U.S. Dollar is has lost it’s standing as the dominant global currency.
But can this really be a surprise to traders watching the Dollar over the past 18 months?
The euro and pound continue to benefit from the weak dollar and there is very little reason to think that the prior support at 76.00 will not become resistance.
However, 75.00 will not be broken as easily as some dollar bears would think.The "too far too fast" journey to today’s low of 75.07 leaves some room for a corrective bounce…but do not read a significant reversal here.
The dollar correlated majors are not the only story here at crude oil seems poised to reach $100/barrel this week and gold climbs to a 28 year high.The AUD/USD and USD/CAD have been major beneficiaries of this rally in commodities.
The dollar-yen sell off is likely to continue as the Dow looks to open weaker this morning.
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110707JPY15.gif
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110707DJ15.gif
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110707DJ15-2.gif
All charts presented with permission from Autochartist pattern recognition software.
Is the cable heading to 2.1000?
Posted on November 6, 2007 at 16:40 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The 2.000 hurdle was a huge psychological level for the GBP/USD and now that support has been tested at 2.0800 and 2.0780 there is a rallying point for a sustained move higher through 2.000.
The current resistance level is 2.0900 and even though prices hit 2.0906 prices have pulled back from this level twice.The key is whether buyers will support 2.0900, which currently has not been established as support.
The U.S. Dollar Index has made a new low this morning as prices are heading down to the 76.00 level.With the likelihood of a rate cut continuing to materialize there is little reason to think that 76.00 will be much more than a speed bump as price slide.Fed Fund futures are projecting a 2/3 chance of a 25 basis point cut.
As the GBP/USD tests the 2.0880 minor psychological level, today is the third session in a row that the 2.0900 level has sent prices lower.Keeping this mind there is a good chance that there will be aggressive shorts entered between 2.0880 and 2.0906.If there is a pullback, the 60 minute chart rising wedge pattern will be a great pattern to keep an eye on as the uptrend line support is positioned in the 2.0820 area.
Using Fibonacci levels to project potential resistance, there are two scenarios.The 1.618 Fibonacci in the first Fibonacci chart at 2.0962 shows resistance well in front of the 2.100 level while the second Fibonacci chart shows the 2.618 Fibonacci level at 2.1152.
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110607gbpdailye.gif
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110607gbpdailye2.gif
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110607gbpdaily.gif
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110607gbp60.gif
All charts presented with permission from
The EUR/USD will continue to rally as long as this is the expectation in the market.
This morning’s action on the EUR/USD certainly reflects this as the 1.4500 was broken to the upside.The break was not sustainable at the time but the retracement was not one that would dissuade Euro bulls from pushing prices higher again.Current support waits between the 1.4450 psychological level and 1.4440.The pullback from the morning’s high was supported as 1.4441.Don’t underestimate the 1.4450 support level and don’t be to aggressive to short the EUR/USD unless it convincingly can break the "50" pip.
The 240 minute chart continuation rising wedge pattern shows the support at the EUR/USD climbs to even rarer air as the 30 minute chart triangle breakout followed through.EUR/USD strength also points to shorting opportunities in the USD/CHF (see chart alert below).
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110507eur240.gif
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110507eur30.gif
http://www.autochartistuniversity.com/110507CHF60.gif
All charts presented with permission from Autochartist pattern recognition software.
Trading USD/JPY and Dow Correlation
Posted on November 1, 2007 at 14:54 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
With the FOMC decision in the books, we’ve finally had a chance to exhale.However the week’s data is far from over.With Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow there is no break for traders.
But that’s not all that is affecting the markets.Add the Dow and crude oil to the mix and there are plenty of opportunities in these volatile markets.
One of the more effective ways to confirm the set ups when the markets are being affected by many secondary factors like the equities and crude are to play the pairs that correlate.Now normally the U.S. Dollar would be the first place to check for confirmation, but two pairs in particular have a better correlation to other markets.
Let’s take a look at the USD/JPY.
The USD/JPY has been tracking with the Dow Jones and with the rate cut yesterday the stock market got what they wanted, although there was a vocal minority on the floor that was expecting a 50 basis point cut.The Dow futures were down 80 points before the open and the Dow is down over 180 fifteen minutes into the open.This is no doubt in reaction to the Fed’s message that the cuts are on pause for now.gau
Look at how the USD/JPY and Dow track and you can use the Dow as a secondary tool to gauge the dollar-yen.Notice that as the Dow weakens, the Japanese Yen strengthens versus the U.S. Dollar.The visual of contrasting wedge patterns make this crystal clear.
(Click on the charts to see full image)
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/01/110107jpydaily.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/11/01/110107djidaily.gif
Get your free 21-day Autochartist trial and INTRO video series at http://www.autochartist.com
This Week’s Autochartist Webinar Playback
Posted on October 22, 2007 at 17:47 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The U.S. Dollar has been rallying since 5:00am EST.The base of the rally was 77.20.This move comes after the test near the psychological 77.00 handle at 77.09.It’s likely that dollar buyers were waiting for the test near 77.00 and this level attracted buyers.Add to that the rally up through 77.20 and 775.0 was sure to attract more momentum players.
The 78.00 level is currently resistance and as the dollar climbs the bears will be picking their spots for the short from today’s bounce.This move is hardly a reversal at these levels as the dollar would have to establish support at 78.00 to even begin that sort of discussion.
Significant resistance waits above 78.00.The key price area of 78.50 to 79.00 will be a steep climb and will likely determine how many shorts will be squeezed out and ultimately prove if there is enough buying support to level out the year long sell off in the dollar.
In the meanwhile there are buyers stepping in at 1.4134 to 1.4150 in the EUR/USD.The 1.4200 psychological level rejected the small climb higher on the EUR/USD to 1.4120 as the dollar tested 78.20 support before continuing the rally.
http://chart-pattern-trading.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/102207dx30.gif
http://chart-pattern-trading.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/102207dxdaily.gif
The Dollar, Crude Oil, and Gold
Posted on October 18, 2007 at 20:17 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
If a picutre is worth a thousand words…a CHART is worth far more.
The U.S. Dollar on the following two charts in in color, while the crude oil and gold candles are in black & white.Notice that as price continues to climb on crude and gold, the dollar continues to slide.
Here’’s the dollar and crude:
http://images.blogeasel.com/ragheehorner/101807dx-cl-daily.gif
And here’’s gold…
http://images.blogeasel.com/ragheehorner/101807dx-yg-daily.gif
Charts created with the permission of EZ2Trade Software.
USD/CAD: Looking for an intraday “in”?
Posted on October 18, 2007 at 0:18 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Picking your spots in a trending market is something that novice and impatient traders seldom do…and it wasn’t until I understood what trend trading really was did I begin to put together the steps I would use to enter an established trend.Someone sent me a neat quote:"Trends are our friends until they bend" but I would have to define "bend".I’m an English major…and I just can’t help it.
All trends eventually "bend" but it’s understanding the difference between a correction and reversal within the trend that allows you to know whether to set up a continuation or reversal entry.
As long as the USD/CAD is trending, I’m looking for the bounce or correction that I can short.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/17/101707cad30.gif
The 15 minute chart might be a good opportunity to short a correction into the Wave or the downtrend line resistance of the falling wedge pattern.
All charts we used with permission from Autochartist and EZ2Trade Software.
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Posted on October 17, 2007 at 16:49 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The rising wedge setting up on the daily chart is interesting mainly because price would have to break down through the 165.00 psychological level to confirm the pattern break.
The uptrend line support of the rising wedge would represent a fairly aggressive breakdown as it’s a steep line in a strong uptrend and I don’t expect the “00″ to go down without a fight.
Meanwhile, the 15 minute chart of the EUR/JPY shows some resistance just below the 166.50 level at the downtrend line resistance of it’s own patter:a falling wedge.A failing wedge can be traded as a continuation pattern or as a reversal pattern however in this case, the chart pattern is not a good match for the current market cycle so it’s not an ideal set but none-the-less can offer insight into the potential follow-through on the daily chart.
http://chart-pattern-trading.com/forex/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/101707eurjpydaily.gif
http://chart-pattern-trading.com/forex/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/101707eurjpy15.gif
all charts were created with
permission from Autochartist
and EZ2Trade Software
Today’s Chart Pattern Trading webinar playback
Posted on October 15, 2007 at 16:52 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
I still actively trade the futures market: gold, crude, e-minis and the more. I trade forex along side my futures the more I see that doing so gives me insight into the synergy of these two markets. While the dollar is a component of all the major pairs, there is more two these two pairs than just the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar pushed slightly higher on the back of the better-than-expected Empire State Business Conditions Index.
The forecast number was 13.0 and the actual came in at a whopping 28.8. This number initially caused little reaction higher from the U.S. Dollar and then sluggishly the buyers came in to buoy the dollar to a 78.128.
The dollar has since been sent down sharply as it tests 78.00 psychological support - again. The morning’s low and support are waiting at 78.93 - 78.94. There is little reason to think that the dollar may not eventually test the 78.65 low set on September 28th as long as rate cuts are still being considered.
In the meanwhile, the USD/CAD and the AUD/USD continue to trend on the dollar weakness. USD/CAD has already reached parity as prices are currently trading 0.9735. The AUD/USD is trending higher at 0.9058 and while parity is still not a near term reality, there is are opportunities in both pairs for traders.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/15/101507cad240.gif
The USD/CAD pair continues to head lower as the Canadian Dollar strengthens versus the U.S. Dollar. 0.9700 is psychological support as 0.9699 and 0.9700 have been tested. Wedges can be traded as either a continuation trade (swing) or as trendline break reversal entries.
The AUD/USD continues to climb higher with and with 0.9000 broken and now support, today’s trading has brought a new high of 0.9078 just 22 pips shy of the 0.9100 level.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/15/101507aud240.gif
The U.S. Dollar is currently support by 78.00 on the daily chart but the downward pressure at each bounce is still a relevant concern for dollar bulls.
…automated chart pattern software courtesy of Autochartist.For a 21-day trial click here.
Autochartist Chart Pattern Morning Update
Posted on October 11, 2007 at 19:25 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
If you’re wondering what’s been going on the in the U.S. Dollar look no further than the five minute chart.Now this time frame is certainly not going to give you an idea of what the overall direction of the Dollar has been — but as far as battles at key intraday support and resistance levels, the very short term chart can really show you the detail.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/11/101107dx5.gif
As the dollar was gaining some strength, it looked like buyers are looking to trade through the 38.2% Fibonacci level.But remember a pierce doesn’t mean that the level is now going to be support.In fact here’s a current look at support and resistance on the five minute chart.
Remember that London is now closed and we’re in the doldrum hours…
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/11/101107dx52.gif
All charts created with eSignal and the EZ2Trade Software Charting Collection v3.0.
Intraday EUR/JPY breakdown on the 15 minute chart
Posted on October 10, 2007 at 18:47 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The 15 minute chart of the EUR/JPY is breaking down through the support of a rising wedge pattern.The breakdown triggered just above the 166.00 level, but I’d rather wait until the "00" is broke so I am not shorting above support.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/10/101007eurjpy15.gif
…automated chart pattern software courtesy of Autochartist.For a 21-day trial click here.
The downside follow through is contingent upon resistance at the 80 and 00 levels.The prediction region is 165.67 to 165.29.
The Asian session, the USD/JPY, and AUD/USD
Posted on October 10, 2007 at 18:15 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
There is a lot of data set to be released this evening during tonight’s Asian session.
There is the interest statement form the Bank of Japan. There is some talk of the BOJ raising rates but this would be a break from the current approach which has been to keep the Yen low. On the other side of the argument, there are a number of reasons that the BOJ could look to for a rate hike. Two reasons would be the strong Nikkei and to discourage the mass of carry trades. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 117.20, the 117.00 level has been tested and it is near term psychological support. Look for resistance on the USD/JPY at 117.50-117.55.
The other possible play during the Asian session would be the AUD/USD. The aussie has been consolidating on the both the 30 and 60 minute charts. The Employment Change and Unemployment Rate release should have an impact on whether the aussie breaks up through the 0.9000 ceiling or whether we see a breakdown through the support of the triangle pattern that has formed on the short term intraday charts. The AUD/USD is current trading at 0.8990 as there is still selling pressure between 0.9000 and 0.9034.
http://chart-pattern-trading.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/101007aud30.gif
http://chart-pattern-trading.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/100907jpy30-2.gif
…automated chart pattern software courtesy of Autochartist.For a 21-day trial click here.
This week’s Autochartist webinar chat playback
Posted on October 9, 2007 at 16:44 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
I could probably just as well call this post "the anatomy of a set up"…
The EUR/USD has been consolidating much of this morning — beginning with the European open — and this always gets my attention because I know it’s only a matter of time before I get a triangle or rectangle set up alert.
Triangle alerts are more likely as having true horizontal support and/or resistance is not a common occurrence.
The view around 8:45am - 9:00am EST on the 15 minute EUR/USD looked like this and the alert put this set up on my radar.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/09/100907eur15.gif
This view and alert gives me plenty of time to make a few decisions:
1) the trade could break up or down…I will use my confirmation tools to pre-confirm this if possible.
2) look at the U.S. Dollar Index for secondary confirmation.
3) there aren’t any near term hot zones I have to concern myself with
Here’s a look at the breakout…by the way the pre-confirmation was to the upside since 8:00am EST
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/09/100807eur152.gif
…automated chart pattern alert courtesy of Autochartist.For a 21-day trial click here.
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Posted on October 9, 2007 at 14:33 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
I’m interested in playing the pullback for two reasons…
Market direction is built candle by candle starting with the short term charts…think of it as the stream to the river to the ocean…
so I want to keep an eye on my short time frame alerts and set ups on the 15 or the 30.
The USD/JPY is breaking down and if we travel further down through uptrend line support, we’ll be battling with the "00".
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/09/100807jpy15ct.gif
…automated chart pattern alert courtesy of Autochartist.For a 21-day trial click here.
There is support on the 180 and 240 for a swing play long.That support waits between 116.85 and 117.00.
Chart Pattern Alert: GBP/USD 240 minute chart
Posted on October 9, 2007 at 13:37 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The 240 minute chart of the GBP/USD has consolidated into a triangle pattern.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/09/100807gbp240.gif
…automated chart
Posted on October 9, 2007 at 0:27 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
We’ve got an interesting look at the cable today.A 30 minute channel down and a 60 minute symmetrical triangle have developed with a breakdown on the 60 minute…so how does the 30 minute factor in this equation?
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/08/100807gbp60_2.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/10/08/100807gbp602.gif
The 60 minute chart has already broken down through the uptrend line support but as bounced slightly after the pierce.The 30 minute chart is currently up against the downtrend line resistance of the channel - this would be a corrective short.The 60 actually needs the 30 minute channel to follow-through and I call this "one thing leads to another".
USD/CAD and the 1.0000 level
Posted on October 4, 2007 at 17:40 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar has congested into a symmetrical, continuation triangle just under the 1.0000 parity level. Any breakout to the upside would need to find buyers above 1.0000 which is a whole number resistance level.
http://chart-pattern-trading.com/forex/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/100307cad240.gif
There is short term support at 0.9966,
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Think forex traders are the only people playing the rates?
Posted on September 19, 2007 at 2:48 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Yeah…we all know who got a lifeline thrown to them…the brokers.Christmas in September.Agree with the 50 basis point cut or not — I mean we’re traders, not policy makers — just play the price action my friends!
I hear a lot of whining, a lot of armchair quarterbacks…whatever.Look at the opportunities instead.I trade it all:forex, futures, and stocks.
I play reaction, I don’t try and predict it.
Let’s look at the brokers.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/18/091707bscdaily.gif
This chart is ready to break, not there yet though so wait for price to break up through resistance.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/18/091807gs240.gif
This 240 minute chart shows the resistance play.Prices have broken up through 200.00 and the past double top has been broken.Sweet!Look for 200 to act as support here.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/18/091807lehdaily.gif
Lehman broke out today but I had to show this set up from Autochartist.it just doesn’t get much better than an asymmetrical triangle like this one as price run up through 60.25 - resistance is waiting at 64.50 and 66.00, so heads up!
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/18/091807ms240.gif
Ok so this play is behind us but I just had to share another great chart pattern set up.This triangle broke from congestion and is on it’s way to the 70.00 upside
Posted on September 12, 2007 at 16:28 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
As the U.S. Dollar pushes lower this morning through the 79.50 level there is a slight bounce to just above the 79.50 which tells us that this is at least a pit stop for the Dollar before we wither bounce up to the 80 level or down towards 20 tick minor psychological level support.The easiest way to measure U.S. Dollar movement in between the "00" is to watch the 20, 50, and 80 price levels.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/12/091207dxdaily.gif
The crude oil market is still being traded heavily as yesterday’s OPEC press conference and today’s inventory number have traders testing the previous high at 78.75 by pushing higher to 78.99 and just a penny shy of the 79.00 psychological level; however price promptly pulled back from this level.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/12/091207cldaily.gif
The market is in an uptrend as you can see from the angle of the Wave although the trend is not exceptionally strong or established on the daily chart.This leaves the price action wide open for a potential short off resistance between 78.75 and 79.00.
Check out this month’s EZ2Trade Software lessons at http://ez2tradesoftware.com/september.html
Autochartist INTRO video and 21-day trial
Posted on September 11, 2007 at 22:50 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerComments Off
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/11/unilogo.gif
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1)Visit Autochartist U. and sign up for the free 21-day trial to the Autochartist pattern recognition and alert platform
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…in front of Bernanke’s speech today
Posted on September 11, 2007 at 15:11 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The market is looking ahead to tomorrow’s data and and Bernanke and it’s unlikely we’ll see a sustained breakout from the current range in the U.S. Dollar Index.The U.S. Dollar is bouncing within a 20 tick range just below the breakdown through 80.00.
http://images.blogeasel.com/ragheehorner/091007dx30.gif
This range has a low of 79.80 and prices seem to be settling quietly within this narrow channel.
The majors are trading in range-bound patterns like the GBP/USD 60 minute chart.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/10/091007gbp601.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/10/091007gbp15.gif
The weakness of the U.S. Dollar is pushing the USD/CAD lower as the Canadian Dollar strengthens.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/10/091107cad15.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/09/10/091007aud15.gif
The AUD/USD is a laggard as compared to the correlation with the U.S. Dollar and gold.
Try a 21 day trial of Autochartist to get alerts to patterns just like these in the forex, stock, and index market at http://www.autochartistu.com
comparing two GBP/USD charts
Posted on August 24, 2007 at 15:14 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The first step to trading any pattern like the wedges pattern on both the 30 and 60 minute charts here starts with the Wave.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/08/24/082407gbp30.gif
Remember that wedges are trending patterns and should be traded in a trending markets.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/08/24/082407gbp60.gif
The difference between these two charts is not in the pattern but in the trend.Notice that the 30 minute is not trending upwards any longer when you take a Wave reading while the 60 still is.So here is the 60 is the set up.There are two ways to play this…either correction buys as long as the trend is in place or a reversal if the support breaks down.
Watching the USD/JPY 60 min.
Posted on August 24, 2007 at 15:01 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Watching and waiting for a breakdown in the USD/JPY 60 minute chart - as long as the MACD Histogram sits below the zero line.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/08/24/082407jpy60_3.gif
The EUR/USD…
Posted on August 22, 2007 at 15:30 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/08/22/082207eur15_2.gif
You can get a 21-day trial and video instrcution of Autochartist at www.autochartist.com
The EUR/USD is setting up a balanced symmetrical triangle on the 15 minute time frame.Don’t assume which way the triangle will break!Instead wait for the break then confirm with the MACD Histogram.Keep an eye on the 1.3500 area for resistance since it’s a "00" psychologicla number.
Be sure to join me on Wednesdays at 11:00am EST/15:00 GMT for the Trading with Autochartist webinar.
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members get access as part of their subscription or you can get a 21 day trial at www.autochartist.com.AUD/USD - 15 min.
Posted on August 10, 2007 at 17:45 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
A rectangle pattern has developed within the congestion of the 15 min. AUD/USD.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/08/10/081007aud15.gif
The initial trend signals that the preceding trend was strong and this gives the recent consolidation on this chart that much more credibility.
While this is considered a continuation pattern developed from a downtrend, keep in mind the sideways market tells us to be aware of a breakout to either side.
playing trending patterns
Posted on August 9, 2007 at 15:39 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Many times we see patterns set up in trending markets.These pattens can either be played as continuation set ups (swing entries) or reversal set ups.
The main thing is that the pattern must set up in a trend in these scenarios.Let’s look at what is setting up this morning:
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/08/09/080907240gbp.gif
Watch for a breakout on this chart as it is try to transition to a more sideways market.I would steer away from a continuation for the current market cycle.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/08/09/080907chfdaily.gif
This channel down on the daily chart of the USD/CHF is setting up an a downtrending market and would be a good set up for a swing short as long as th trend is in place and prices do not go above 1.2100 - 1.2115.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/08/09/080907eurdaily.gif
The wedge setting up on the EUR/USD is setting up in a more transitioning market as the trend is starting to weaken.There is decent resistance between 1.3840 - 1.3850 and the breakdown will trigger as the uptrend line is broken.The line is positioned at the 1.3790 area.
AutoChartist
Posted on July 31, 2007 at 5:04 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
You all know I am the #1 AutoChartist fan!!!If you have attended any of my recent webinars you know I have been walking everyone through the steps of how I use AutoChartist every day.
Chart patterns have long been a staple of my trading - and that will never change.
If you are a Premium FXStreet member - be sure to download your copy of AutoChartist and join me during my webinars here at FXStreet.I’ll show how to get the most from it.If you are not a Premium member, then you should seriously consider joining as one of the many perks is access to AutoChartist.
You may also download a 21 day free trial from www.autochartist.com
The is also excellent AutoChartist instruction available at www.autochartistdirect.com for those of you who are new to the platform.
Momentum Trading with the Wave and Chart Patterns
Posted on July 31, 2007 at 4:58 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Here’s a great article for momentum trading…I’ve been going "back to basics" during the FXStreet webinars with chart patterns, support, and resistance and this article is a perfect compliment to that.
You can read it here:http://www.thirtydaysoftrading.com/30days.html
EUR/USD
Posted on July 26, 2007 at 20:17 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/07/26/072607euraud240.gif
This chart is a perfect example of a channel reversal.You could either play a corrective bounce if prices stay below the downtrend line resistance or you could play the breakout above the resistance.If you choose the latter, use the CCI to confirm the break.
AUD/USD
Posted on July 26, 2007 at 15:52 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
I’ve been utilizing AutoChartist quite a bit in the chats and I think this tool is a powerful one especially if you are an independent trader like me.Sitting in an office, usually by myself or occasionally with another trader can leave you feeling a little short handed.There is always more your wish you could see or scan or react to and being one person — it can be tough.
One of the ways I tackle this in my office is to use AutoChartist.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/07/26/072607usdaud30.gif
Here I was alerted to a double top pattern on the 30 minute AUD/USD
I am going to discuss some of the steps to confirm AutoChartist results.These are from AutoChartist University.(www.autochartistuniversity.com)The indicator to watch closely is the Initial Trend which lets you know the strength of the trend that preceded the pattern formation.
In congestion or consolidation patterns like a double top, the trend should ofcourse be up before the pattern but it should transition into a sideways market as the pattern develops.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on July 18, 2007 at 15:37 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
I get this question a lot, probably more often than any other…
I really have mixed feelings about it because frankly it doesn’t matter to the trader in me.The consumer however does care, especially since speaking obligations will take me to Paris and London this year.
As a trader my main concern is movement…beyond that I avoid two common mistakes:
1) trading with a directional bias
2) expecting reversals
I think these two mistakes are common psychological traps many traders fall into and as ‘07 comes to a close I think many traders start thinking about the more mental aspects to their trading game.
I wake up each morning with no expectation of anything:up, down, or sideways I wait for an opportunity.I have seen the price action over the years so many times that it’s much like an golfer who is setting up a familiar shot or a quarterback recognizing a defensive play.
Many traders, especially traders watching the dollar, are anxious for a reversal…again, if I find myself waiting for a reversal it’s because I am not in the current trend.Think about it:If you are short are you anxious for any kind of reversal?No way! You hope the trend will last forever.
I take it one step further.I like to look at both sides of any trade.When I am setting up a buy, I think about what a trader would perhaps see if they were looking for a short.Any good attorney or debater would do the same:look at both sides of the argument.
Ok, so where is the Dollar going in ‘08.Honestly I don’t know and I don’t care.But what I can tell you is what the chart is telling me.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/12/26/122607dxdaily_2.gif
While prices have found some running room above my Wave, I can also see that the recent pullback will be the first opportunity we have to see whether the Wave will support the dollar above 77.00 - which is a big psychological level that dollar bulls hope will hold.
I think as long as prices on the daily chart can find support above the Wave the uptrend has a chance.The next hurdle to the upside is 78.00.Any continued climb higher will be measure by the dollar’s ability to attract buyers at each "00".
AutoChartist presentation
Posted on July 12, 2007 at 0:47 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Hi Traders, I just wanted to let everyone know that tomorrow, Thursday, July 12th I will be presenting an INTRO into AutoChartist and chart pattern trading.Premium members have access to this service and I’ve found very few people know how to take advantage of this fantastic tool.
Well wait no more…
Bring your questions - we’ll be getting in-depth with AutoChartist tomorrow.
I will also record this presentation and make it available for playback.
By the way, if you are not currently a Premium member (you should be!) but you can also get access to AutoChartist and get a FREE 21 day trial at www.autochartist.com
a chart from this morning’s chat
Posted on July 3, 2007 at 16:57 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/07/03/mt4usdcad.gif
This was a chart we spent quite some time on this morning during the premium chat.Two triangles formed:one smaller and more agreessive in terms of the set up and the larger triangle that would be a better set up with a more sideways Wave.
The May webinar is FINALLY available…
Posted on July 2, 2007 at 2:25 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner2 Comments »
Thanks for everyone’s patience.The May monthly webinar playback is now available…it was a large presentation so it’s been broken into three parts and you can watch the playback by clicking here.
Get all the details of my favorite set ups as well as my favorite charting tools.If you are a premium member this is a must for those of you attending the Tuesday and Thursday sessions.
Also, for my Friday morning Contest webinar participants, this will be especially helpful for our weekly meetings.
Enjoy!
Lazy Summer Days…
Posted on June 22, 2007 at 20:35 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Most traders who read my blog may not know that over the years I found a rhythm to my trading.It usually involves trading from January to the end of May and then taking the Summer off until Labor Day when the typical volume came back to the market.
This was especially true when I was trading predominantly trading futures and stocks.But the world has been changing.Wars, all time highs and lows in currencies and energies, interest rates and more have taken the summer doldrums and truly changed this season into a valid and increasingly important time of year.
No more summer vacation…
But that being said, a trader does need a break.So let’s talk about which weeks you should be especially aware of for lower participation.
By the way lower participation typically means unpredictable moves, lower follow through and poor trends which is exactly why we want to avoid this type of environment!
I now take June off and will also take the two weeks leading into Labor Day off as these seem to be not only good times for me to take a break from the market but also unproductive trading times for me over the course of my trading career.
The doldrums also applies to certain intraday times as well where I will not enter a trade because of lower participation.Specifically I use the "two time zone rule" which means that I will not enter a trade when there is not at least two major financial centers open.The major centers I watch are Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore, Frankfurt, London, and New York City.Again I will not enter a trade unless at least two centers are open.Trade management (stop losses, profit target) can be executed at any time of day.
Always ask yourself "who’s awake?" and "who’s on holiday?"A simple glance at the clock and the economic calendar will take care of this.
I got a lot of emails about the extra video
Posted on May 29, 2007 at 20:21 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner1 Comment »
Ok Gang, if you want access to the extra video on the MT4 platform as well as the other lessons I talked about during this morning’s FXStreet chat.Head on over to raghee.com and register…the FXStreet members book special is also available on the raghee.com home page.
Any questions, just send ‘em over to fxsupport@raghee.com
Once you watch the video(s) be sure and let me know what other topics you’d liket o see me cover.
Monthly Webinar Playback Will Be Posted Today
Posted on May 29, 2007 at 14:46 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner1 Comment »
A big thanks to all of you who joined me for last week’s monthly webinar.I recorded the session and will be producing it today so as long as all goes well the playback will be available later today.
By the way, just for those of you who may have missed it…you can access the Raghee Report for two weeks using the following username and password:
u/n fxstreet
p/w trial
http://www.ragheereport.com
I promised during my last webinar to talk about the U.S. Dollar Index
Posted on May 14, 2007 at 17:33 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Last Thursday during my FXStreet webinar, I mentioned I would share some links and insights into how and why I use the U.S. Dollar in my forex trading.We had a great in-depth discussion of this and I thought it would be great to follow that up with some notes from that conversation.
First off, my familiarity with the U.S. Dollar comes from years of being a futures trader.I started my career in trading in the futures market.The U.S. Dollar Index is a futures contract I keep on my trading screen anytime I am trading the forex.I use the NYBOT (New York Board of Trade contract.
This feed is not one that comes with any forex charting that I am aware of.I have sen some other Dollar Index feeds but they are not the NYBOT feed which is the most accurate look at the U.S. Dollar.
This feed is not cheap however and each individual can decide for themselves if the live exchange fee is a reasonable price to pay.If you are a full-time trader, I think the live is feed is a must.
However all is not lost if you do not want nor feel you are ready for the live feed.There are places to get 30 minute delayed data and charting.You can go right to the exchange, www.nybot.com
You can also get delayed data and charts at www.quote.com.I use eSignal for all my charting so the www.quote.com site is a place I visit.To bring up a quote and chart, use the symbol DX A0- that DX <space> A0 (zero)
Once you have the feed the best thing to do is use it as a secondary confirmation to the price action on the majors (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY).The correlation is strongest with the EUR/USD (inverse) and USD/CHF (direct).Be sure to always check the price action of the U.S. Dollar Index against any pair you want to use it with.Correlation does change; sometimes it is stronger, sometimes it is weaker.For example, right now there is very little correlation with the USD/JPY.
When there is correlation however the U.S. Dollar Index can provide tremendous insight into support and resistance.This is exactly why I want to know not only where the Index is trading but the support and resistance on the chart.Think of the U.S. Dollar Index like the Dow Jone Industrial Average for stock traders.
I start each of my webinars with a look at the U.S. Dollar Index and you can get a better idea of how and why I use it during my twice weekly webinars as well as this month at my three hour presentation for FXStreet
May 24th is the big day.
Posted on May 13, 2007 at 20:58 in Technicals by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
OK, well it’s big for me anyway because I a honored to be doing this month’s FXStreet presentation.
Here’s the information and I hope you can join me for my three hour, in-depth look into charting and forex.
DATE/TIME:
Thursday May 24, from 13:00 to 16:00 GMT
(New York time is GMT-4, London time is GMT).
TOPICS:
How to apply market cycle analysis to your own trading
How to to scan for trading opportunities
Utilize multiple time frames effectively
Use the Wave
How to apply confirmation indicators
Psychological numbers
Finding chart patterns the correct way
Which hot zones to watch
Powerful intramarket analysis
For those of you who have attended my twice weekly chats, this is a great opportunity to learn how to set up the trades that I scan for each day.
Swissy follow up
Posted on May 9, 2007 at 18:32 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
I wanted to follow up my USD/CHF post form yesterday with some risk and trade management commentary.It’s hardly enough to know when to enter alone.That is only 1/3 of the trade as far as I am concerned.
The other 2/3 you ask?
That is what today’s post is all about.The other 2/3 is risk management and trade management.
So here’s the Swissy as it trades this morning after yesterday’s breakout.
There’s a lot going on here so let’s look at each price and see how it figures into the management as we move into today’s FOMC statement.By the way, 5.25% and no change is already discounted into the market and so that means the bulk of attention will be places on the accompanying statement, that is ofcourse unless there is some sort of surprise cut/hike.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/05/09/050907chfdailymanage.gif
Chart created with eSignal 8.0 and EZ2Trade Charting Collection plug in (www.ez2tradesoftware.com)
Let me add that this work is done at the time of the entry and not afterwards.A trader must know the point of validity (POV), and at least two profit targets before entering the trade.
So we already know the breakout trigger.Let’s talk about the stop loss.The first stop places at the time of entering the trade is what I call a "risk based stop loss".This simply means that the stop represents a loss of capital if hit.This stop is based on the point of validity which represents where the trade is no longer valid.Without knowing where the trade is no longer valid, how can a trader know at price to get out?This is not based on a fixed percent or pip level.It is based on support and resistance — just as the entry was.
The point of validity here is the other side of the asymmetrical triangle which is all the way down at 1.2000.While this may be the POV, I will not use it.It’s too far away and represents too much risk and there are other support levels that I can utilize to place a stop loss.But always start with identifying the POV.
The next level I direct my attention to is the near term low of .2105.I can live with that.It’s represents around a 60 pips of risk and for a daily chart this is very realistic.I have also noted the low at .2142 which is today’s near term low and certainly could be a stop loss a trade could use today, but the stop loss can be cheated in no closer that this.
The first two profit targets (PT) are the .2195 level.This allows us to step out before the size at "00" comes in and since "00" is also going to be psychological resistance as prices move higher, we should respect it.The second profit target is the .2150 as I will use the "50" which is also very likely to be psychological resistance.
This trade is only going to move higher if the U.S. Dollar Index moves higher and it looks like a the 82.00-82.03 resistance on the U.S. Dollar Index will correlate closely with the 1.2200 level on the USD/CHF.
My candles are also colored blue which signals a neutral zone which is what we want leading into a momentum trade.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on May 8, 2007 at 23:16 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
http://www.ragheereport.com/050807chfdaily.gif
The sideways, three o’clock Wave on the daily Swissy was short lived as the U.S. Dollar’s break higher finally allowed the Swissy to do what it seems to have been wanting to do:trade higher.
The move was pre-confirmed and I would consider this a asymmetrical triangle as there is a horizontal support level sitting at the 1.2000 level. Aggressive traders could have taken the initial break at 1.2165 through the lowest of the cluster of downtrend lines.This does leave a sufficient amount a room to run the 1.2200 level but the more conservative trader can wait for the top downtrend line to break which would put the buy at 1.2205.This would likely demand an 82.00 break of the U.S. Dollar Index and certainly support at the 1.220 in the Swissy.
Also notice that I turned on a little-used feature of the EZ2-Wave study that signals when the Wave is on the strong, neutral, or weak side if the Wave.I have mentioned this positioning in both my books and you can refer to them to see how you can better judge the direction and strength of the current trend with this understanding.You certainly don’t need the color coding but it is a great visual cue.
The blue candles signal a neutral price action and this is exactly what we want as we set up a potential momo entry.The neutral candles also signal the "pause" between uptrends and downtrends where the market congests or consolidates.Put that together with the three o’clock Wave and the visual is clear that the trend is sideways.
My take on fundamentals…
Posted on May 3, 2007 at 2:24 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Everyone has there own set of tools and rules for the market. The cool thing about a site like FXStreet is that you get a look into many different styles.
My selection of tools is not a matter of "this is the best" but rather "this is my preference".
Rather than a blog entry today, how about a "vlog" entry today.
Here is the link to a 14 minute discussion of how I treat and trade before and during fundamental events. It is not about trading the data but rather setting up a trade going into the data. It’s about trusting that price will allow you to track those "elephant footprints in the sand" rather than discounting and analyzing news events at a moments notice.
Enjoy!
…and feel free to email me at raghee@ez2tradesoftware.com
Pushing Chart Boundaries
Posted on May 2, 2007 at 3:17 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
I think sometimes we forget what support and resistance really means.
We draw all our lines and levels and then think our job is done.In reality though it has just begun.Each line and level is a "decision level".We as traders must decide what each price means and what the reaction is most likely to be.
If I see prices heading lower, approaching a support level, I will expect prices to bounce off it until it breaks.The opposite goes for resistance.Expect it will hold — until it doesn’t.This chart of the U.S. Dollar Index futures shows the point very well.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/05/01/050107dx30_3.gif
There are very distinct levels that the U.S. Dollar that prices reacted to.The support levels of 81.25 to 81.27and the resistance levels of 81.70 to 81.72 are currently containing price action.Until prices break the support or resistance I will expect prices to continue to bounce within these levels.
So let me address some mechanics to these levels.
There are two types of support/resistance levels:soft and solid.Soft levels have a large variance."Variance" is the difference in price between the touchpoints that make up the level.For example, the support level has a variance of two pips (81.27 - 81.25 = 2)Soft levels typically have a variance of greater than five pips while solid levels are under five pips.I say typically because each market has varying spreads which can contribute to wider acceptable variance.For the most part though, five pips while cover the major pairs.If you need greater than five pips that means that you are probably looking at a more obscure cross rate.
The levels on the U.S. Dollar are invaluable.I have always said that the U.S. Dollar Index is a secondary confirmation and it still remains so.Today’s levels also shed light on the potential follow-through of the U.S. Dollar-correlated pairs.The 30 minute EUR/USD was showing a potential breakout higher.This was a great looking set up however with the 30 minute U.S. Dollar trading near what was a double bottom at the time, there was a higher chance that prices would bounce off support rather then trade lower.This was even more the case since the double bottom was also a 30 day low.Monthly and yearly highs and lows are key levels.
Pushing the boundaries of the chart means that we must identify these support and resistance boundaries before assuming a trend will persist or that a trend will even begin.
By the way, thank you to those of you who wished me a quick recovery.The flu I got was bad and basically put me out of commission for two weeks.So thanks for your patience.I am back on my feet and catching up with everything.This month will also begin my new schedule at FXStreet.I will be presenting in the FXStreet webinar room twice a week on Tuesday and Thursday, 13:00 GMT.
“Currencies reflect economies — but do not necessarily effect economies.”
Posted on April 18, 2007 at 20:10 in Price actions by Raghee Horner1 Comment »
"Currencies reflect economies — but do not necessarily effect economies."
I thought this was a great quote.There has been a lot of talk as to how and why the Dow continues to climb as the U.S. Dollar Index continues it’s slide.In many ways, currencies are the "stock of a county" but they reflect interest rates far more.A higher rate lends itself to a stronger currency while lower rates weaken a currency.That’s is exactly why the Euro and Pound is so strong against the Dollar.Both these Euro and Pound are moving higher due to the fact that their respective governments/banks are expected to raise rates.The FOMC — it is widely expected — wil cut rates.No whether any of this will happen is irrelevant.It’s been baked into the cake!Remember the market doesn’t just move based on what has happened…most movement is based on a perception of what will happen.
Currently the Dow sits just below the high I marked on the chart below.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/18/041807indudaily.gif
The Dow is moving higher for precisely the same reaons the U.S. Dollar moves lower.The exepectations of a rate cut and add to that the Euro and Pound are moving higher based on expected hikes from the ECB and BOE.
The 1.3600 level on the Euro/USD will be a formiddable level and the GBP/USD will now battle to stay above the 2.000 level it has traded up to.The Dollar does have about three key support levels that can be found on the weekly chart that are the most likely price points for buyers to step in.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/18/041807dxweekly2.gif
These support levels will coordinate with the resistance levels on the EUR/USD most directly.Currently the EUR/USD has resistance at the "00" and 1.3616.
It’s the simple things…
Posted on April 17, 2007 at 20:36 in Price actions by Raghee Horner1 Comment »
I’m just getting back on my feet after a particularly nasty fight with the flu.I’m sad to say the flu won.It has now run it’s course and I am just now getting a good picture of the price action that has transpired.
I will get back to my regular schedule but I wanted to share a single idea today.One I think that most traders learn early on in their studies and slowly forget as time passes.
Don’t sell new 52 week highs and don’t by new 52 week lows.
There is a strange desire to pick tops and bottoms.It’s the glory trade.I never do it.This does not mean I don’t trade new highs and new lows.There are certainly ways to trade new highs and new lows.Simply put, a trader waits for the next set up.Usually when there is a new high or low it accompanies a trend which means there is a 12 to 2 o’clock or 4 to 6 o’clock Wave.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/17/041707.gif
If you take a look at the Wave here, there is little reason to look to short this move.Irrelevant of any fundamentals, political or economic opinion, the EUR/USD has made it’s trend clear.One of the most common questions I get when a market reaches a new high is whether I would short it since it is "overbought".Rubbish.Who says this is overbought?Overbought to whom?
Bottom line is that my own entry strategies do not set up a short in this scenario.It keeps me trading with the trend.
If there is a opportunity to play some sort of correction or reversal then it will first appear on the 30 minute chart.The GBP/USD has been extremely strong these past weeks.The 30 minute chart set up a momentum play this morning which — as all momentum plays do — could have broken either way.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/17/041707gbp30a.gif
There should be no bias to which way this chart could break.Simply confirm any break with the MACD Histogram.This consolidation below the huge 2.0000 resistance level is not viewed to be an opportunity to short.Did you look at the Histogram?It’s about the zero line which means the only break that could be confirmed would be the break up through resistance.
Here’s the view at the 2:00am EST break.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/17/041707gbp30b.gif
So my point and lesson here is not to fight the trend.Do not ever believe a market is too high or too low…well, you can think it but don’t act on it.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/17/041707usd.gif
How many traders thought the U.S. Dollar was too low at 82.00?As of the 13th the Dollar made a new 52 week low.
I have opinions rolling around in my head but I put them aside when it comes time to trade.The chart holds the only opinion I need.And if I didn’t say it clearly enough before.
Don’t sell new 52 week highs and don’t by new 52 week lows.
the only opinion I need.And if I didn’t say it clearly enough before.Don’t sell new 52 week highs and don’t by new 52 week lows.
reponse to EUR/USD breakout
Posted on April 6, 2007 at 20:53 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner2 Comments »
I appreciate the fact that I am able to present my market analysis on the ‘net.My Chartology on the ‘net blog is new and I am really humbled and overwhelmed by the response I have received.Thank you for reading — I hope to continue to present charts and ideas that benefit you all.
So I received a great comment regarding the EUR/USD break yesterday.This comment had some interesting thoughts and I think it brings up some good points so let’s talk about it.
"the EURO now is overvalue the break yesterday was pure Manupilation by big hand and they moved it higher in thin illiquid market before the Easter break they just hunt for the stops ,I feel sorry for the euro because Euro currency isn’t free the last two week is big example for the set up ,they took the EURO higher with the bad and good news no one will know when they will stop and no one will have trust in trade like this ,Do you think that Europe’s economy will not suffer from overvalue currency ,EURO is not free like AUD and NZD all them control big hedge funds and the play with the chart to control our trade because they have power and money according to thier position and they will eat us ,big fish eat small fish ."
I don’t disagree with this comment.I feel that manipulation, running stops, and more are an everyday occurrence in any market.There are so many influences on how and why prices move — as long as they keep moving I am happy.The only thing that "puts me out of business" is a sideways market.
I think of hedge funds, banks, institutions as elephants walking in the sand.They are so large they are going to leave tracks.It’s my job to recognize where they are heading.That’s what charts do for me.
Whether the EUR/USD "should" be trading higher is irrelevant.The politics of it are as well.As a trader, my job is react to the movement.If I feel I do not want to trade the move, that is certainly a decision I can make and longer time frames like the 180, 240 and daily were not setting up the buy that I outlined here.
If the market is too illiquid and a trader feels there is too much risk because of it — much like I feel after London closes each day — then I have the choice not to enter any trades that trigger during these illiquid hours.
As of this morning the EUR/USD is back down below 1.3400 so the psychological level is broken.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/06/040607eur30.gif
Prices have returned to approximately where they were before the rally.Many of my fellow traders played the move up and down and are happily taking their profits and enjoying their weekend.I played the move higher but did not play the move lower (see post "U.S. Dollar and the majors conflict this morning")Either way, what the EUR/USD "should" be at nor the manipulation that ran it up and down didn’t enter my mind.
Trusting the market’s movement comes from trusting my charting set ups.I don’t need to trust other traders’ motives.I accept that some factors that move the markets may beyond my knowledge and understanding.No trader understands nor knows of all the factors that effect a market.But each trader find the tools that allow them to measure the moves and comprehend movement.I remember a great quote from one of my favorite trader, natty gas legend, Eric Bolling:
"Players on the Street are opinionated. Quants think they hold all the keys…Value investors mock their growth stock counterparts…analysts deride traders. Technicians ignore fundamentalists. They meet every day in the markets and place their chips. It can get a little hairy."
The U.S. Dollar tells an interesting story as Friday’s trading is wrapping up for today.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/06/040607dx30.gif
Even with the strength of a stronger than expected NFP number, the U.S. Dollar has resistance at the "00" and 83.00 is a ceiling going into the weekend.This tells me that as good as the data was, there is still a lot of hesitance to take the Dollar significantly higher.Monday will offer another push as equities traders are able to to react to this data for the first time.I am bullish on the Dow and Naz and this report will simply feed that charting analysis.
Hopefully this post will give you all a better idea of how I trade and analyze the market.Special thanks to elc for the comment.
Have a Happy Easter!
U.S. Dollar and the majors conflict this morning
Posted on April 6, 2007 at 20:26 in Chart patterns, Price actions, Technicals by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Trading in front of any reports is always daunting. Trading in front of NFP is downright intimidating.I don’t trade the data but rather study price action leading into the release so that I can position myself in the market if a trade sets up and confirms.There’s a big difference between playing a report and trading what you see on the charts.So that being said let’s take a look at the morning’s set ups before NFP.
Since the NFP is a U.S. Dollar focused event, it’s best to look at the Dollar correlated pairs which means my attention is on the EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.These pairs will be most effected by movement in the U.S. Dollar.
It’s about 2:00pm EST so we already know what happened this morning.NFP surprised to the upside.However we can take a look at the four pairs in front of the release.
Let’s start with the U.S. Dollar.The goal is to take a reading as to the strength or weakness of the chart.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/06/040607dx308am_3.gif
The Dollar found support but until the current green candle there was little reason to think that that Dollar was anything but neutral to perhaps even slightly bearish according to the brief break of the uptrend line support.So going into the report, I will take an approach that must assume a neutral to bearish strategy.However, nothing done without looking at each individual pair.
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD both move oppossite the U.S. Dollar so this means I will be looking for strength on both.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/06/040607eur308am_2.gif
This view at 8:00am EST shows strength which is line line with the slight weakness in the Dollar.In fact, the EUR/USD even seems slightly more bullish than the Dollar’s weakness would imply.
The GBP/USD has a completely different look.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/06/040607gbp308am_2.gif
I look for correlation and for the majors to move in sync with their relationship to the U.S. Dollar and I don’t have this here at all.So this is where I must question what the charts are telling me.This is the first strong signal that I should not execute the trades in front of NFP.But I still have two more majors to take a look at.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/06/040607jpy308am_3.gif
Well, the USD/JPY is not helping here at the 8:00am candle is showing strength.The USD/JPY and USD/CHF should move with the Dollar, not oppossite it.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/06/040607chf308am_3.gif
This look at the USD/CHF seals the deal.The situation is this…the USD/JPY and EUR/USD are both bullish while the GBP/USD and USD/CHF are both bearish.These moves are in conflict.That is the problem here this morning.Each of the these entries hedges the other — which is not what I want.For me to take multiple positions there must be correlation or I am simply working again myself.
If I took all four triggered trades, the EUR/USD and USD/CHF would have been losers and the GBP/USD and USD/JPY would have been winners — easy to see in hindsight.
The decisions to trade any report, but especially NFP, has to be done from complete confidence in what you see in your analysis.All four of these charts had clean set ups, but the conflict with not only the U.S. Dollar but with each other is what takes credibility away from the set ups.
The U.S. Dollar gets swept off its feet
Posted on April 5, 2007 at 20:49 in Chart patterns, Price actions, Technicals by Raghee Horner1 Comment »
The Dollar got swept off its feet and not in any romantic notion…no I mean like a a nice judo leg sweep that puts you flat on your back, the one that came fast and you didn’t see coming.That was the U.S. Dollar.
The Dollar had been trading within a nice range 84.20 to the upside and 83.80 to the downside.Both major psychological numbers and both with multiple tests.The EUR/USD had also been a contributor to the range as it was held below the 1.3400 level.
The New York session began with a 7:00am EST breakout in the EUR/USD.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/05/040507eur30beforebreakout.gif
The sideways Wave and balanced triangle pattern was the set up, a classic momentum look.The positive MACD Histogram at the time of the price break completed the trigger to enter.The break was 1.3370.
The U.S. Dollar has been weak, there is no doubt when looking at the daily chart.One thing to note is the proximity of current prices to the December 2006 low.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/05/040507dxdaily.gif
The 30 minute chart broke down as buyers bid up the Euro.What made this weakness different that past sell-offs was the support that it broke as it traded lower.Taking out the "80" tick was a clear signal that the buyers who had support this level in recent days were no longer there or no longer willing to as the Euro headed higher.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/05/040507dx30.gif
The EUR/USD entry long at the "70" pip had an initial profit target of 1.3395 as it was necessary to respect the potential resistance at 3400.If prices could move beyond 3400 had as much to do with Euro buyers at this level as it did U.S. Dollar sellers below "80".
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/05/040507eurweekly_2.gif
The current perch of the EUR/USD is a precarious one as the heights it has found are not only one year highs but also heading up to multi-year highs.There is a saying that stock traders adhere to:buy 52 week highs.Now I do not like doing so unless that 52 week high is set up by a momentum play or unless I can get a correction entry.But I certainly do not want to play a short in the face of a 52 week high.
The EUR/USD broke the "00" with the momentum play back at "70" and while traders would do well to take some of the position off the table as the battle at "00" happens, there is no reasons that a portion of the overall entry could not sit back at a nice trailing or break even stop to see if there is more life in the move.
We now head into tomorrow’s NFP with a markedly weak U.S. Dollar.The non-farm payroll is likely to also have a two-part move as the Dollar has the possibility of being effected Monday morning when U.S. stock traders are able to react to the number for the first time.Remember that the U.S. equities markets will be closed tomorrow as will the NYBOT where the U.S. Dollar Index is traded.
To carry or not to carry…
Posted on April 4, 2007 at 22:20 in Chart patterns, Price actions, Technicals by Raghee Horner2 Comments »
Carry trades. I know
some folks love them.I am a trader and
to me when I hear the word “carry trade” all I hear is the word “trade”.I think far too often traders who enter carry
trades forget about the set up that should accompany a smart, well-executed trade. The “carry” part of the trade is just gravy to
me, an extra.
Since trading is about assuming and managing risk. Here is the risk regarding carry trades: The
risk of any carry trade is that currency rates will change and the investor (or
trader) will have to pay back a now more expensive currency with less valuable
currency.(check out Wikipedia for good examples
of carry trades). Carry trades are more
investing set ups if you ask me…but I am not here to pass judgment, just share
my opinion.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/04/040407jpydaily.gif
On the subject of carry trades, we have to talk about the
USD/JPY.The Yen has been in a rather
ugly distribution cycle at the bottom of the recent sell-off.This sideways cycle found support just above
the “00” of 115. and is currently testing the “00” of 119.One concept that you will hear again and again
from me is the need to respect the major of “00” and “50”and minor
psychological numbers of “20” and “80”.
The 0.618 Fibonacci is also waiting up this height. The 0.618 is the “golden mean” and probably
the most followed Fibonacci level, along with the 0.500.That 0.618 is also only four pips from the
119.20. So what is the “20”.If you
thought “minor psychological number”, good, give yourself a cookie. So not only does the Yen have the 119.00
resistance to deal with – and this will not be an easy level to break up
through between now and Friday’s NFP, but if and when it does, the 119.16 and
119.20 is waiting.The difference with
the “16” and “20” resistance is that the Yen will have the momentum of breakig
through the “00” behind it as well as being up through the Wave and having the
support of that as well.
So to carry or not to carry? Whatever you decide make sure that the entry is a confirmed trade in and of itself, and
let the carry be icing on the cake.
Crude Oil Inventory numbers
Posted on April 4, 2007 at 19:07 in Chart patterns, Price actions, Technicals by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The USD/CAD is always on my mind when we get Crude Oil
Inventory numbers and Natty Gas inventory numbers.Today’s Crude Inventory was a great
opportunity to see if the Canada was setting up in front of the 10:30am EST release.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/04/040407cad240.gif
Now frankly none of my five time frames looked as good as I
hoped it might as 10:30am approached. Looking
at this 240 minute chart of the USD/CAD there was little that pleased the eye.With 1.1600 overhead as resistance, I would be
happier with a breakdown – but if a break to the upside confirmed I would take
it – knowing that the ceiling just above was one that would be coming at my
head fast!
I think knowing when NOT to trade is probably most
beneficial distinction successful traders make most often.Looking at the 240 Canada let’s break down some pros
and cons.My Wave is sideways here
(three magenta lines are the 34 EMA on the high, low, and close) so the entry
style will be a momentum which will allow me to trade a breakout or breakdown.There is certainly no lack up trendlines
surrounding the congestion on this chart either, but none form a balanced
symmetrical or asymmetrical triangle.Balance
is especially important for symmetrical triangles as the two trendlines that
form the pattern are best when there is – as the name implies! – symmetry in
the angle of the up and down trendlines. The MACD Histogram is well established above the zero line and this
means that a break to the upside will be confirmed just as long as the Histogram
stays there.
The reason this trade isn’t appealing is that the triangle
pattern, which represents the price trigger for an entry is not balanced and
thus not reliable.When in doubt…don’t
jump.
Since the USD/CAD is a “split personality” currency pair, let’s
take a look at Crude. The corresponding
240 minute chart is also consolidating with a sideways Wave.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/04/040407cl240.gif
While you don’t have to have intraday crude oil charts handy
to trade the Canada, I am a futures trader also and I like having access to both as the relationship is
synergistic – as all good trading is!Crude
is selling off after the geo-political panic run-up never came to fruition. There is daily chart support in crude at the
64.15 level which ofcourse will be further strengthened by the “00”.I am not a bear here but rather looking for a
deep enough pullback to set up a buy.62.60
is my target for a swing long.However, short term traders might find a 240 short below the uptrend line support a nice short term correction play.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on April 4, 2007 at 18:20 in Chart patterns, Price actions, Technicals by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Think of it as the Earth and Sun…the U.S. Dollar continues
to gravitate and circle around the 83.00 level.The move during the afternoon New York session was
suspect as it occurred only after the European/U.K. session wrapped up and thus
could only occur during the forex doldrums.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/04/040407dx30.gif
When Europe and the U.K. opened this morning prices
quickly found the “00” and has been trading around it since.There have been a few short lived moves higher
and lower around the “00” but traders during the
New York session seem to want to push the
U.S. Dollar just below the 83.00 level.With 83.21 holding as resistance and 82.82 holding
as support, the minor psychological levels have the larger range established.The S1 pivot level at 82.89 is also acting as
support.
The follow-through has been very poor specifically because
the U.S. Dollar does not wander too far past 83.00 for very long.Expect more of this until Friday’s NFP.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/04/040407eur240what_a_false_breakout_l.gif
The EUR/USD is adding to the U.S. Dollar’s range-bound
action as it has its own significant level to contend with.The last time prices were able to pierce
1.3400 it was sent lower very quickly.With
the consolidation that is occurring below the “00” now, there is likely to
forces at work: Too few traders who are
willing to run the U.S. Dollar lower while running the Euro higher before NFP
and the selling pressure between 1.3380 and 1.3400.
The Aussie and today’s gold action
Posted on April 4, 2007 at 18:11 in Chart patterns, Price actions, Technicals by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
With the RBA making a decision on interest rates yesterday
evening (April 3rd) there was sure to be some volatility in the
AUD/USD.The 180 minute chart below
shows the move that resulted from the rates being left unchanged.This is what was already discounted into the
market and with no surprise the Aussie sold off.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/04/040407aud180a.gif
The sell off broke the 0.8100 level with ease but the
question would be, could sellers keep the Aussie below the “00”.I like to see price make a test of this level
thus giving a visual cue as to “00” begin established as resistance.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/04/040407aud180b.gif
Instead prices rallied into after the announcement as the
Aussie headed back up to where prices had been trading before the hot zone. This morning the Aussie continues higher and
gold has been much the reason.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/04/040407yg30.gif
The rally this morning thus far in the gold market has
certainly helped the Aussie continue its rally; add to that the weakness in the
Dollar.
http://forex.typepad.com/chartology/images/2007/04/04/040407dxdaily.gif
There is more than enough for a chartologist like myself to make a decision about the on-going
strength of the AUD/USD.Keep an eye on
0.8200 as the Aussie makes its way higher towards this significance resistance
level. The Aussie continues to want to
head up and head up to the 1996 highs of 0.8212.
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Obama administration unveiled it’s $ 3.6 trillion budget for next year.
A trillion is more than just a 1 followed by 12 zeros !
It’s a thousend billion. . . .a million millions. . .and it’s BIG !
For a look at what $ 1 trillion Dollars looks like.
We start we a $ 100 dollar biljet.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexhedge/files/2009/03/d1.jpg
A packet of $ 100 bills is less than 1/2 “thick and contains $ 10,000
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexhedge/files/2009/03/d2.jpg
The next little pile is $ 1 million dollars (100 packets of $ 10.000).
The Day Job Traderhttp://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/ryan-okeefe-author-photoMedium.jpegTrading a longer time frame helps fit trading into your schedule while you move from day job to full-time trading. Learn to trade longer time frames with Ryan O'Keefe.
Posted on April 1, 2009 at 22:03 in Daily Trading, From My Trading Desk by Ryan O'Keefe2 Comments »
Howdy Folks!
GBP/USD broke out after some back and forth action this morning giving us a nice 100+ point rally to catch. My generic technical price target for the channel break is up around $1.4635 but in my opinion today’s run is good enough a day ahead of Non Farm Payroll Friday.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/04/4_2_2009_usdgbp_60.png
Looking across the majors I see a lot of consolidation patterns building ahead of NFP Friday. USD/JPY has a nice triangle, but EUR/USD has a nice horizontal channel that built up over the last three days.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/04/4_2_2009_eurusd_60.png
My opinion is the upside breakout may be cut off at resistance around $1.3430 which would provide a short opportunity if I can find the right entry. The pair may stay in the range tomorrow which would make a pop up to this resistance level post NFP even more interesting on the short side depending on the data.
We’ll have to wait and see, but that is the advantage of trading longer time frames, you have time to think about this stuff and let it show it’s cards to you.
Also, I wanted to say I appreciate all the comments folks have been leaving on my blog here at FX Street. I love reading your opinions and seeing all the different ways we look at the same currency pairs. I hope your enjoying the blog!
Best of luck,
Ryan
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
GBP/USD Bullish After Daily Hammer, Looking for a Breakout
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 21:16 in From My Trading Desk by Ryan O'Keefe1 Comment »
Following up on yesterday’s GBP/USD post. Following the Monday’s hammer we got a decent little 100 pip rally but the question remains whether or not there are any teeth in this hammer or if GBP will slip further. Either way I’m on breakout patrol now.
There is some pretty decent news on the docket for the U.S. Dollar tomorrow including ADP Payroll, ISM Manufacturing and Pending Home Sales. Event risk could help a break this pair out of it’s current range just above the minor daily chart trend line.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/4_1_2009_usdgbp_60.png
The breakout box I’m watching is between $1.4377 and $1.4108. We’ll have to wait and see what the market gives us if anything.
Also if you’re looking around for a well defined range, checkout the 60 minute GBP/CHF chart.
Best of luck,
Ryan
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Quiet Monday…
Posted on March 30, 2009 at 19:06 in From My Trading Desk by Ryan O'KeefeNo Comments »
It is funny to think of a trading day when GBP/USD moves in a range of 180 points as quiet but that is how I felt about today’s price action. There were some good moves during the New York session but this blog is about long term trading and right now I’m coming up dry on options.
This week is also Non-Farm Payroll week so it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw some wacky ranges ahead of Friday’s data.
One interesting daily candle to note is the hammer GBP/USD printed. The pair tested a rising trend line but the question now is will it have any teeth or will the pair fall further.If the pair can establish a channel over the next day or two it could be an interesting breakout setup.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/3-30-2009_gbpusd_daily.png
Best of luck this week,
Ryan
AUD/USD Holds Support at $0.6930
Posted on March 25, 2009 at 20:12 in From My Trading Desk by Ryan O'Keefe1 Comment »
In my last post I speculated if the AUD/USD trend was strong enough the pair may bounce early on support around $0.6930 and bounce it did, three times. With two hammers and a bullish engulfing pattern I hope you found an entry that worked for you and caught some pips.
Deciding how to enter a trade when price approaches an potential support and resistance zone is subjective but since I get email about it, I thought I’d share this chart as an illustration of what I look for.To me, support and resistance trading to me is about waiting for price action to tell you the story.
If I am very confident in an entry zone I may use an entry order at the boundaries of the entry zone however if I am not confident I will wait for the market to show it’s cards to me first through price action. I like to see long candle wicks suggesting strong price objections to that entry zone or very strong reversal patterns such as bullish or bearish engulfing candles.I use the same process regardless of the time frame I’m trading.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/3_25_2009_audusd.png
Best of luck!
Ryan
Ryan
AUD/USD Daily Support…
Posted on March 24, 2009 at 18:35 in Daily Trading by Ryan O'Keefe1 Comment »
Howdy!
Last week was slow on the blog, I took some time out to spend it with an old friend and what a show I missed! USD/CAD tanked, Bernake made more promises, EUR/USD rallies 450+ points in a day and GBP/USD makes comeback! I hope you were able to capture some of the fun last week!
Tonight I’m looking at the AUD/USD. This pair continues to trade within a channel we marked up weeks ago and has made a decent bounce off the bottom, presumably headed for the top of the channel eventually.
If you look at the hourly chart, there appears to be a small head & shoulders pattern which may suggest the rally needs a pull back to find more buyers.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/3_24_20080_audusd_60.png
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/3_24_20080_audusd_daily.png
I’d like to see some support build in following a pull back to the $0.6850 / $0.6800 levels I’ve drawn on the daily charts before this trend continues but if it is strong enough, it may turn around $0.6930 / $0.6900, I am awaiting the right bullish price action along support…
Best of luck,
Ryan
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Is Support Building for USD/CAD?
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 16:51 in Daily Trading by Ryan O'KeefeNo Comments »
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/3_16_2009_usdcad.png
Last week I speculated $1.30 would hold and I was flat out wrong. The longs dried up while the shorts piled on pushing this pair down to $1.2630ish. Looking at the Daily chart I have to wonder if support is building in around $1.27 / $1.2650.This pair has tested the $1.2630 level twice with support holding at $1.2650ish. Should the inside trend line break down this week I’d say the run at $1.30 will be over for now but if support holds we may see another assault on $1.30.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
EUR/JPY Breakout?
Posted on March 12, 2009 at 21:22 in Daily Trading by Ryan O'Keefe2 Comments »
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/3_12_2009_eurjpy.png
EUR/USD has been on a decent little rally the last few days and it appears a breakout may be forming on the EUR/JPY.
A break to the upside may run to $131.00ish which the top side of the channel this pair has been trading in since mid October.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.USD/CAD Attempts Another Run at $1.30
Posted on March 9, 2009 at 9:50 in From My Trading Desk by Ryan O'Keefe1 Comment »
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/3_9_2009_usdcad_240.png
The “Thrilla From Mississauga” is underway again as Loonie is pummeled overnight and now tests major resistance at $1.30. Mississauga isn’t the Canadian capital of course but it is close and is sounded better with “Thrilla”.
I guess the question is do we short this again or will $1.30 fall this time?
Let’s look at the last week’s fundamental performance for Canada:
GDP:-1.0%
Overnight Rate: Cut .50 basis points
Building Permits: -4.6%
Ivy PMI:45.2 (Better than expectations)
This week Canada releases employment data which is expected to shed 50,000 jobs and grow unemployment by .02%.
The picture doesn’t look very strong for Loonie and given the light economic calendar this week the Dollar may benefit more from risk flows than fundamental drivers, retail sales is the only event on the docket for the U.S. this week.
My opinion is $1.30 falls. The hourly chart is already starting to demonstrate support around $1.2950. Technical analysis of the triangle that broke overnight nights suggests a long term price target near $1.34 if the pattern holds up. As usual, I’d rather get long on a pull back day than chase a breakout so for now I’m sidelined.
What do you think about $1.30? Click here to share your comments.
Best of luck,
Ryan
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
USD/JPY Technical Breakout Supports a Run to 100.00
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 18:51 in Daily Trading by Ryan O'KeefeNo Comments »
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/3_4_2009_usdjpy_60.png
Dollar rallied against the Yen again today preparing to test the psychological number of 100.00 even. All things being equal, we see technical evidence headed into the Asian session that a run on 100.00 may be coming soon.Classic technical analysis tell us to measure the rally ahead of flag consolidation patterns to determine a price target for any ensuing breakouts.This puts today’s breakout target near 100.22 which gives us a 100 point run from 99.00 to 100 even, well within the average daily range for this pair which is around 130 points (ATR(14)).
Best of luck,
Ryan
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
GBP/USD Continues to Look Weak
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 21:22 in Daily Trading by Ryan O'KeefeNo Comments »
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/files/2009/03/3_3_2009_gbpusd_daily.png
The GBP/USD continues to look weak as it broke the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the rally that started back in January. There is plenty of event risk scheduled with most numbers forecast to deteriorate further, including a rate cut expected on Thursday.
GBP/USD is maintaining a high correlation to the DJIA so another sell off like Monday may help drive this pair lower as well.
Broken support looks to be between $1.41 / $1.4150 which may offer some short positioning ahead of any further declines.
Best of luck,
Ryan
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
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