Pound Drops - FT says Slowing UK Economy - Lower Rates Fundamental data coming out of the UK confirms some technical weakness for the pound. CPI increased from 2.5% to 3% in April and theFinancial Times reported that UK Sales dropped 1.5% in April - the first time spending has dropped two consecutive months since 2005. FT article also suggests that the BOE may need to lower rates .25 in June.Today’s Chart - click to enlarge http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/captured_Image.png_thumb.pngChart above shows an expanding wedge on the 4 hour chart with strong resistance at the 1.9600 range confirmed with several Fibonacci levels and the 50 SMA.Tune In to Live Webinar’s - Broadcast Free - on FX Street New Time-12 Noon Eastern Time - Every Monday Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show! Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.
Interest Rate Watch - Oil Ready For Final Spike?
Posted on May 8, 2008 at 0:13 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
What’s Trichet Going To Do - Or Say? The Bank of England – BOE, and the European Central Bank seemed to cast a cloud over the currency markets on Wednesday. Expectations that both Banks will hold rates steady on Thursday left traders with a relatively tame trading day. The chart below shows an unusually quiet GBP-USD pairtrading a very tight 30 pip range for the NY Session.http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-May-7-GBP-USD-Ahead-of%20ECB-BOE-Jerry-Furst_thumb.jpg Chart Above - Pound Trades in Tight 30 Pip Range Ahead of Rate Announcements Oil – Ready for a Blow Off Top? I hear more and more speculation that Oil has no overhead resistance and will soon be spiking to heights of $150 - $200! Could we be ready for a blow off top? Usually when there is chatter of unlimited, unbelievable prices (Do you remember the books titled like “Dow 30,000” just before the Tech Bubble Burst?) this helps the bulls to run over the cliff at full speed - faster than Wylie Coyote! Further, there is also talk of raising margin requirements for the Oil pits that would potentially slow down the speculation. The question is -is the current price above $120 sustainable and valid? Economists looking for high prices to curb demand are detached from the reality that the high price of oil is a weak US Dollar issue - as all Oil is settled in US Dollars. The sooner Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke acknowledge, accept, and react to this fact - with paying more than lip service to a strong dollar - the sooner we all will pay less for gas and oil.When The Going Gets Tough, … Filler Up – and Charge It! The US consumer is continuing to spend on credit with a surprise number of over $15Billion! This is way above the consensus expected range of $3B to $7.5 Billion. The report coming at 3pm Eastern time could be viewed as good or bad depending on your angle. The currency markets ignored it completely. Could it be that the middle class is filling their gas tanks with plastic? Tune In to My Live Webinar’s - Broadcast Free - on FX Street New Time-12 Noon Eastern Time - Every Monday and….Today Twice! Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” - Also - register formy live coverage of the GDP and FOMC announcements here on FX Street - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show! Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.
Technically Speaking - Dollar - Gold
Posted on May 6, 2008 at 2:08 in Uncategorized by Jerry Furst3 Comments »
US Dollar - Time For a Real Rally?
There is plenty of speculation as to what Jean Claude Trichet will do with the Euro zone’s interest rates. Depending on who you listen to the ECB may move rates up, down, or keep them steady. To his credit, Trichet keeps us guessing with statements that he is concerned about inflation and slowing growth.Hypothetically - All it would take is a clear policy statement from JCT of staying steady - or for a shock a mention of dropping rates - and the US dollar will be able to roar back.
Pound Predictions?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-May-5-GBP-USD-Weekly-Jerry-Furst_thumb.jpg
Looking at the Weekly chart (above ckick to enlarge) for the Pound Sterling vs. US Dollar you can see that a Head and Shoulder pattern may be completing if price was to drop to the 1.9100 range. This would complete the right shoulder. If that happens - you will have a bounce or break off the supporting neck line. A Dollar Rally will be confirmed if this neck line is broken.
US Dollar Poking Holes in the Swiss Cheese?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-May-5-USD-CHF-Daily-Jerry-Furst_thumb.jpg
The USD-CHF (above) is usually a good indicator of Dollar Direction. The chart above shows the 100 SMA has held as resistance quite well - but a solid break above that line - would have it also break above the current up trend channel. If that happens, it could signal a real Greenback rally againstthe British Sterling and the Euro.
Meanwhile Back in the Darkened Gold Mines
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-May-5-Gold-Chart-Daily-Jerry-Furst_thumb.jpg
Gold - Giving Traders the Shoulder - Heading Lower?
While Oil is posting lifetime record Highs, and the US Dollar shows a lack of direction, Gold is showing a chart pattern that might be bearish. The Daily chart of Street Tracks ETF GLD shows a Head and Shoulders Pattern with a broken neck line. The neck line coincides with the key 61.8% retracement level support level making this line quite significant if it is violated again. The 200 Period Daily SMA is currently at just about 81. GLD typically trades at 1/10th of the spot price.
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New Time-12 Noon Eastern Time - Every Monday and….Today Twice! Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” - Also - register formy live coverage of the GDP and FOMC announcements here on FX Street - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show! Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.
Fed Cuts Rates - Jobless Grows - Dollar Confusion
Posted on May 2, 2008 at 17:22 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
When Bad News is Good
The US Dollar rallied Friday morning as the Non-Farm Payrolls Report - NFP showed a net loss of only -20,000 jobs. This negative growth of jobs was a positive surprise as it was much better than the expected job loss range of -150,000 to -25,000K .
Euro Double Bottoms at 1.5400 - click to enlarge chart
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008%20May2-EUR%204-hour%20-%20after%20NFP%20-%20Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpg
Gold and Oil Up - Despite Dollar Rally
Usually we see a very clear inverse correlation between the US Dollar vs. Oil and Gold - However as of this posting Oil is up over a Dollar at 113.73 and Gold is Up at $855 - So go figure. Yesterday Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson stated once again his “long term” strong dollar policy.Reuters is quoting Paulson saying, “I’m a strong dollar man” - please….
Planned Confusion: Now You See It… Now You Don’t
15 minutes before the NFP report the Fed announced that in conjunction with the ECB and the Swiss National Bank they increased their liquidity arsenal from $50 to $75 Billion available through the TAF or Treasury Auction Facility. That’s an an extra $25 Billion between friends! They are also increasing the “Frequency” of the auctions. This unexpected announcement caused some confusion to an already tense trading world awaiting the NFP. Was this timing planned? The FED clearly watches CNBC for direction (not to mention the Futures) - perhaps they wanted some attention just before NFP? I think they should pay attention (and a consulting fee) to Rick Santelli :>)
Waiting Game For Clarity? Read - Fed Minutes
Transparency used to be quite clear with Ben Bernanke, but it appears as if the guessing game is on! Wednesday the FOMC led by Ben Bernanke cut interest rates the expected .25 lowering it’s bank rate to 2.0% - However, the Fed left no hint of future policy.. leaving my previous post on April 30th correct - stating that we will have to wait until May 21st for the FOMC minutes report to see what was discussed. Again - restating my previous post, the next FOMC scheduled announcement is not until June 25th - leaving the window open for surprise announcements.
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Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder ofInvestors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.
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Posted on April 19, 2008 at 1:38 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Relief Rally - or Short Squeeze?
As many traders were anticipating the Euro to test the 1.60 mark, the US Dollar had other plans. Reasons for the Dollar rally run rampant as analysts needing a story speculated that Citigroup’s $5.1 Billion Loss ($16 Billion in Trading Write Downs), and cutting another 9,000 jobs was a relief rally… Go Figure!
Break Out - Fake Out
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-April-18-Euro-USD-Ascending-Triangle-Trend-Channel-Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpg
The charts (Click to Enlarge) show how large and violent Friday’s European session was. The above Ascending Triangle break proved to be a fake out.
The Euro’s Upward Trend Channel (shown below) that begins back on March 12 was marked from top to bottom in one 4 Hour bar. The Euro bounced off support around 1.5700 before the New York session began and closed the day and the week in the middle of the channel near the 38.2 retracement level of 1.5817.
Euro Dives Over 240 Pips
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-April-18-Euro-USD-Trend-Channel-Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpg
An “orderly decay” of the US Dollar on the long term charts sounds reasonable to assume.
According to the CFTC’s COT report - Speculators are moving away from the Euro and into the Yen. Speculators or not. It should be noted that the Dollars rally was not contained to the Euro as all the charts were showing extreme volatility. It should also be noted that the British Pound Sterling bounced up against the Dollar closing at 1.9973 and tapping the 2.00 mark.
Gold and Silver Index: Up Channel - Wedge - 50% Retracement
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-April-18-Gold-Silver-Index-Trend-Channel-Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpg
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I expect the volatility on the currencies will continue as a battle over some very strong chart patterns need to be played out to the north or south. Tune in to my Weekly Webinar - “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” every Monday morning at 7am EDT - 11:00 GMT - on FX Street - Click Here to Register - and Attend Free.
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation.
Sterling Strugling as Euro Poised For New Highs
Posted on April 16, 2008 at 16:53 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
G7 - Gee Whiz - Now What?
Last Weekends G7 Meeting left observers with nice words of cooperation - but as the respective leaders headed their separate ways to the four corners of the globe - the currencies seem to be on their own paths now as well.
The G7 is calling for China to increase the flexibility of it’s currency - But it seems to me that all that will do is cause the price of their exports to go up - causing more inflation for consumers worldwide!Click Here for a Link to the G-7 Statement
Euro Poised for 1.60 Range?
On Wednesday the Euro zone reported higher than expected inflation - dragging down hopes that Trichet might lower interest rates to help prop up the US Dollar.
Inverse Head and Shoulders on 30 Min Chart
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-April-16-Euro-USD-Head-Shoulders-Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpg
Click to Enlarge
Ascending Triangle on Daily Chart
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-April-16-Euro-USD-Ascending-Triangle-Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpg
Click to Enlarge
Tracking Errors?
Although the UK came out with better than expected CPI numbers the Pound Sterling seems to almost track the US Dollar down more than it’s traditional tracking of the Euro - currently on it’s way up.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-April-16-Euro-Pound-Divergance-Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpg
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation. Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.
Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.G7 Meets - Interest Rates - UN-Interesting
Posted on April 10, 2008 at 18:18 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
G7 This Weekend the Group of 7 – Finance ministers meet in Washington and the US Dollar and FX rates appears to be high on the list of topics. European Central Bank President Trichet has indicated that rates will stay stable as the ECB walks a tightrope of being concerned about inflation, while extremely concerned about market turmoil. He was quoted Thursday as saying, “I deplore the excessive volatility in exchange rates.” GBP-USD The currency markets were little changed as there were no surprises to the markets as the Bank of England cut interest rates .25% to 5.00% http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-April-10-GBP-USD-Triangle-Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpgEuro – USD The European Central Bank left rates steady at 4.00% as expected. The currency markets had little reaction as continued intervention seems to be at work. http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-April-10-Euro-USD-Triangle-Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpg Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation
Pound Under Pressure - Euro on the Rise
Posted on March 28, 2008 at 21:50 in Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
As the Dollar Bides Its Time
It has been a rather boring week of headlines and news announcements compared to the volatility of the past few weeks.
Focusing on the US Dollar - It could be argued that intervention is at work propping up the Greenback for the past two weeks. Active traders have witnessed an amazing pause in the laws of gravity as the Dollar has actually strengthened in the face of negative forces, most notably after the Fed cut interest rates on March 18. Others may call it consolidation… But the Dollar can only hold on for so long - paused against expectations of further rates cuts by Bernanke. The EMU has expressed several times this past week that their main concern is with inflation and feel that growth will continue as demand continues from areas other than the US.
Pound Losing It’s Sterling?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2008/03/28/2008margbpusd_classic_headshoulders.jpg
The Above Chart Shows a Classic Head and Shoulders patter on a 30 minute chart that would have netted savvy Technical Traders with over 130 pips!
Euro on the Rise!
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2008/03/28/2008mar28eurgbp_4_hour.jpg
The Chart Above Shows the Euro Strengthening against the Pound
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”. He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation
Thee Calm Before…….. The Fed (and After?)
Posted on March 18, 2008 at 16:12 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
More Volatility Ahead?
Markets are in a state of shock Tuesday mourning awaiting the 2:15pm Eastern time US interest rate announcement. Sunday’s slaughter of Bear Stearns has evaporatedas it appears to me that Intervention is at work around the globe to avoid systemic panic. This is is a good thing - I think…. Ben Bernanke and his advisors (who ever they are) have done a magnificent job of keeping the markets orderly. As of this writing the DOW is up over 250 at 12,222 points and the S&P 500 is up over 30 points at 1308. Bravo Ben!
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008%20March%2018%20-%20Euro%2030%20Min%20-%20Before%20%20the%20Fed%20-%20Jerry%20Furst_thumb_2.jpg
Euro Trending Nicely against the Dollar - Click Chart to Enlarge
2:15 - The Moment of Truth - Save or Kill the Dollar
At 2:15 the currency markets will show just how much (if any) intervention is at work - as the guessing game for Interest rate announcement ranges from a 1.25% cut to people like myself that say rates should hold steady at current rates. If they surprise by holding rates (please!)then the dollar may rebound quickly and help to establish a sense of security in the financial marketsliquid. The Flip side - The Fed already cut .25% in a surprise move on Sunday - a smart move - so if they lower a full point - It might be look out below…! It might even signal a new Gold Rush.
You can tune in to my live Webinars every Monday at 7 am EST and Today I will be covering the FOMC interest rate announcement - live on FX Street - Free - Click here to register.
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead".He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation
To Save The Dollar - Fed Should Keep Rates Steady!
Posted on March 17, 2008 at 5:02 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Shock and Awe - Bear Sterns Sold Out - at $2 Share Sunday Night!
The Fed is using Depression era measures! The Dollar is breaking down into free fall. All bets are off - current market conditions are in flux as the Asian Session opens. Breaking news announcements are likely to be coming from expected and unexpected corners. How many other banks - worldwide - are going to be gutted?
The Good News Is…The Worst is Probably at Hand!
Smell the Fear….The above paragraph - as true and as panicked as it sounds signals thatthe capitulation days that are necessary to get past the worst - is at hand. However, it reminds me of living through several hurricanes recently in south Florida. Despite the fact that you know a dangerous storm is bearing down on a path headed straight for you -The best you can do is take cover and pray. The waiting is the hardest part, it can seem to never end. Surveying the damage comes later - your main concern is survival. However, the landscape that was once familiar may no longer exist - Just like Bear Stearns.
Rate Cuts are Not the Answer - Save the Dollar NOW
Although Ben Bernanke has stated that the FOMC watches the Fed Funds Futures Rates - It’s about time for the chairman to flex his muscle and pause the rate cuts to save not only the US Dollar - but the world economic system. The Fed chief might find some new respect too…
Lower the rates more than .25% and the Dollar will likely free fall. If it was up to me….. I would hold the rates steady!
Saving the Big Banks - Let the Little Ones Disappear?
The front page of Investors Business Daily Saturday stated,” the Federal Reserve made clear that some banks are simply too big to fail.” So wrote Jed Graham. The problem I have with this is that there has been zero oversight of the mergers and acquisitions of financial institutions - or any business for that fact - What happened to anti-trust law?. Correct me if I am wrong - but JP Morgan now has the Bank of New York, Chase, Mellon, and how many other entities under it’s roof. I thought the idea is to have risk spread around - not consolidated. Now they are handed Bear Stearns for a few million dollars? What happens if JP Morgan ends up in trouble?
Which Bank and how many - individuals - are next?
Two weeks ago Congress asked Bernanke about what to do about massive credit card debt being held by individuals with rates adjusting to loan shark levels! Ben’s response was that people need to know what they are buying…. Not good enough Ben - Your ignoring the warning - just like when Congress tried to warn you and Greenspan over two years ago that the housing market was getting overdone with improper lending.
I am amazed that the US can spend Billions a month in Iraq - but let American institutions and individuals get crushed.
Yen Rally’s as I Anticipated Thursday - Now What?
Pound Craters agaist the Yen - We have seen this before
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As of this typing at 23:30 Eastern time March 16 the GBP-JPY has traded below 194, down from 200 at the sessions open only a few hours ago. The chart above going back to 1986 shows several times when the Pound has slid quite fast against the Yen - Are we there again?
Tune in to my live Webinars every Monday at 7 am EST and Tuesday I will be covering the FOMC interest rate announcement - live on FX Street - Free - Click here to register.
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation with Jerry
Where Does It End? Yen To Rally?
Posted on March 14, 2008 at 6:25 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Duck and Cover- Dollars Falling
Why do I get the feeling Imelda Markus’s shoe collection is about to drop…
So the Fed tried to prop up the dollar with $200 Billion - Nice try - it lasted for a few Hours… Gold hit $1,000 an ounce and Oil hit $111 a barrel…. Bush says the Dollar is adjusting….Carlyle Capital Collapses… and Hank Paulson is asking financial institutions to cut dividends to preserve capital….
Calls for Emergency G7 Intervention - Not So Fast….
During a press conference today, the US Treasury Secretary stated once again a strong Dollar policy - but when asked to explain -he was at a loss for words. The call for intervention by the G7 is going out…. Well - the buzz is that the Bank of Japan is fighting the call to intervene to prop up the Dollar, citing the market is too large and intervention might fail. Leaving Trichet with pressure to lower rates.
FOMC Meeting Next Week - Rate Cut In Question
Past rate cuts have had a temporary saving effect on the US equity markets - but the Fed is finally feeling the heat of the harsh reality that it’s just too painful for the Dollar. Expectations for next week by most pundits are expecting a .75% rate cut - and .50% at least at the March 18 FOMC meeting.My guess is that the Fed will surprise by leaving rates steady….
Yen to Continue Rally? Or is Pattern Complete
Back on January 8,I posted the Weekly chart of the Pound-Yen at around 215 with a very nice Head and Shoulder pattern breaking the neck line and in play. it was a text book looking example….
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Jan8%20GBP-JPY%20W%20H-S_thumb_1.jpg
Above - January 8 - Post with Head and Shoulder on Weekly Chart in Play
Below - March 13 - Pattern now completing as we approach the 203 range.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008March13-Weekly-GBP-JPY-HS-Complete-Jerry%20Furst_thumb.jpg
Stopping the Bleeding - At What Cost - Arm - Leg?
The question now is will this level become support? Will the Yen, a Proxy for the Asian region continue to Rally? Will Intervention Be Used and If So - Will It Stop the Dollars Slide? - My Guess is the Plunge Protection Team will apply a tourniquet and stop the bleeding - but an arm or a leg may need to come off….
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation
Interesting Week Unfolds – Dollar Stinks and Sinks Down Under
Posted on March 7, 2008 at 4:07 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst3 Comments »
Read my post of January 8 – As at that time two months ago we were awaiting Interest rate announcements from across the pond. Since then the UK has lowered rates a .25% to 5.25% and Trichet and the ECB has held rates steady at 4.0% - But the key point here is that at that time – it became apparent to me that despite the words coming out of US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s mouth –well to put it bluntly - nah….. I’ll be nice… He’s got such bags under his eyes…..I think he should switch jobs with Condolesa Rice - I think she sleeps better at night…. and eats better too….
The FOMC’s actions were poised to “Damn the Dollar”. Is what I stated back then and Since then the damage to the US Dollar has been nothing short of "damning". Ben Stein tonight on the Glenn Beck Show said, “There is no End to the Fall of the Dollar” Well….I basically said that two months ago…. the difference is that now Ben Bernanke has recently publicly distanced himself from his mentor -Secretary Paulson’s policy of a "Strong US Dollar" policy. Stating that his main concern is economic growth. Really, I though he said it was guarding against inflation - at least that was his line back in August. How stupid do they think we are? Or maybe they justfigure that most people could care less about the "facts".Unfortunately - It is not Ben Bernanke’s fault - and to his credit - He’s holding up well in the "hot seat" Anyone else want his job?
Sometimes I wish I was wrong but my next post on January 22 called that the US was in recession (while most pundits were still debating it) and I raised the notion that a “Depression” is possible. Well with Oil spiking past $105 and Gold heading for $1,000 an ounce – the average person on any street in most any country is likely to be oblivious to what is coming. For new readers - I suggest you scroll back and read my past ramblings….If you dare….
Non Farm Payroll - Is it real?
OK – well – now that the UK and ECB has left interest rates alone today – all eyes are turned to the Non Farm Payroll report due out in a few hours – as if that really reflects the “facts”.If the government wanted to report the "facts" it would be easy to calculate all "legal" workers and residents in the US with Social Security numbers that are either paying into payroll taxes - vs. retired - or not paying into "the system".But that might make sense. Ohhhh… and Let’s see what the revisions are….I believe they basically just count how many people are collecting unemployment checks. … Anyway…..
So as the Greenback Sinks – let’s look Downunder at the AUD-USD
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Mar6%20-%20AUD-USD%20Daily_thumb.jpg
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead".He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation with Jerry
Euro Breaks Above 1.50 - Loonie Gains 400 Pips
Posted on February 27, 2008 at 5:24 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
As Predicted Yesterday4 Month Trading Range Pierced Todayhttp://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/Jerry-Furst-2008Feb26-%20Euro%20-%20USD-Breaks%20New%20High_thumb.jpg
What’s Next? The question now is will the Euro continue higher or drop back into the range.There is projected resistance at 1.5130 and 1.52.The answer may come from ben Bernanke’s testimony tomorrow - or perhaps with Thursday’s US GDP report.
The Dollar began it’s slide after Fed Vice Chairman Kohn said Tuesday that, ” “Interest rates cuts will not stop…”the housing market from going through tough times.”
The Loonie Gains on Weak DollarThe US Dollar dropped from 1.02 to below 0.98 in rapid fashion. Attendees of my Monday morning session on FX Street were treated to in depth analysis on the USD-CAD showing support levels that sliced through.
Current Support is seen at 0.9809 and 0.9776 and resistance at 0.9917.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/Jerry%20Furst%20-%20US%20Dollar%20Canadaian%20Loonie%20Gains%20400%20pips_thumb.jpg
US GDP Report this Thursday - I will be broadcasting a special Live Coverage Webinar Free here on FX Street beginning at 7:30am Eastern time. Click Here to Tune in
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation
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Posted on February 25, 2008 at 21:05 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Back in mid December I was interviewed by Futures magazine for their January issue. When I was asked my thoughts on the rapidly falling US Dollar, I responded that it was in no ones interest to see the US Dollar crumble…. at least not too fast. Especially as it had recently seen a huge depreciation that needed to be digested like a large holiday meal.
Predictions Past and Present
When asked about the Euro- I predicted accurately that the prices would stabilize in a range between 1.45 and 1.50 for the time being. That was mid December and the article was published January 1st. We are still in that trading range as of this post Feb 25.
Well it appears to me as that this prediction has played itself out and time will tell if the Euro is now ready to break out of this 500 pip range.
Euro Stuck in a Range- For How Much Longer?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/Jerry-Furst-2008Feb25-Euro-Daily-Range-to-break_thumb.jpgMu
Correlation Between Euro and Pound vs Dollar - Is it Over?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/Jerry-Furst-2008Feb25-%20Euro-Pound%20Correlation%20Over_thumb.jpg
Or Will the Euro Drop and Pound Rise?
The interesting thing is that the Euro and the Pound have traditionally traded in a decent correlation versus the US Dollar. However, while the Euro has stabilized at lofty levels, the Pound spent the end of 2007 giving up it’s gains and stabilized at a lower level of it’s own 500 pip range between 1.94 - 1.99
So the question is will the correlation come back together? If it does - we could expect the Euro to drop to the lower end of it’s range around 1.43 as the Pound could appreciate to around 2.035 - where they could meet in the middle and correlate again.
Or - the other possibility is that the ECB and Trichet could raise rates and leave the Dollar and the Pound behind. But I find that to be unlikely.
US GDP Report this Thursday - I will be broadcasting a special Live Coverage Webinar Free here on FX Street beginning at 7:30am Eastern time.
To read my thoughts published in Futures magazine and to register for the free Webinar visit the Investors Education Network home page.
Bernanke, Paulson, and Cox - Turning the Screw on Congress?
Posted on February 15, 2008 at 8:03 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
The Three Wise Men Spoke The True IssuesBut Did Anyone Hear Them? US Treasury Secretary Paulson, FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke, and SEC Commissioner Cox took to the hot seat in front of congress Thursday January 14th - but there was no love on Valentines Day for these three scape goats for a financial problem that was truly caused by a lack of of oversight by government regulators that were never seen. Further distressing was that you would never know that the following comments are pressing issues for the United States…Moments of Truth and Clarity:Bernanke: Entitlements will take up the entire US Budget by 2030 !!!Paulson: Yes, There are short terms problems – but there are long term issues that need your attention!!SEC Secretary Cox: Why are you encouraging spending - instead of saving?If a Tree Falls in the Forest…If a Truth is Told - Will the Media Listen? Let alone the three stooges running for president… At least one of them has experience with being tortured! The above comments from the congressional testimony should be bold headlines - but they are not quoted anywhere I can see except right here! A US Congressman sternly asked Bernanke to react quickly the next time he sees a problem.The fact is that Ben Bernanke should be credited with avoiding a Black Tuesday Jan 22, 2008 with his unscheduled 75 basis point cut. But instead of accolades, a US Congress with nothing better to do than investigate steroid use in baseball chastised these public servants stuck in a no-win situation that regulators should have seen and prevented. Other highlights of the day include: Bernanke stated that continuing trouble in the credit markets could trigger more action.Meanwhile – in New York, the Insurance Commissioner said that there will not be a bailout of Insurers but suggests that splitting Insurance companies into two parts is an option – one with bond policies and another with “troubled structured finance” may be an option. Could this be the next shoe to drop? Meanwhile - across the pond, European Central Bank’s Weber has made comments stating that Inflation is above the ECB’s stability threshold of 2% and that Interest rate expectations for the ECB to cut rates is “inappropriate” - Rate cut or increase for Euro zone?As of 12:30 Eastern time – reaction on the currencies was interesting: The Euro gained from 1.4580 to 1.4640, http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Feb14%20EUR_thumb.jpg
The Pound bounced from 1.9860 to a high of 1.9741 and fell back to 1.9690http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Feb14%20GBP_thumb.jpg
The Canadian Loonie seems to be grounded near parity fluctuating with a range between 0.9940 and 1.0030
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Feb14%20CAD_thumb.jpg
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 30 Minute Consultation with Jerry
Posted on February 6, 2008 at 0:12 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
The equity markets sold off hard Tuesday and the non mfg ISM became thegoat of the day. My car radio blasted the financial news while I was taking care of last minute preparations for attending the World Money Show in Orlando. So now Joe and Jane public are being explained what the ISM non-mfg index is….
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Feb5%20EUR-USD%2015%20Min%20Jerry%20Furst_thumb_1.jpg
I get home to see the Euro has sold off 200 pips since the London open…. It makes me think… If the ISM non mfg index is bad news for the US economy - then why would the Euro fall out of favor? The calls for more rate cuts in the US are getting louder to have Bernanke lower rates to 2.0% orlower!
Dollar Rallies - What’s Wrong with this Picture? Follow me here……The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates as expected to 7.0%, while the consensus that the BOE will lower rates, and the ECB will hold steady on Thursday - and now the pundits are screaming for the FOMC to lower rates to 2.0% in the US and….. the Greenback stages a Rally???? (Click on Chart to Enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Feb5-AUD-USD%2030min_thumb_1.jpg
AUD-USD Falls after Rate Hike Down Under Common Fundamental Analysis Sense would have had the Australian Dollar strengthen - or at least continue it’s path along a very nice trend channel on this 30 minute chart. Instead, about an hour before the RBA announcement - the trend channel was broken and the US Dollar is now plowing a new channel in the opposite direction.
Dollar Intervention at work ahead of G7? Ohhh.. what’s that…. the G7 meets this weekend and the the buzz is that FX will be on the agenda…. Maybe that explains it…
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 30 Minute Consultation with Jerry
Interest Rates Get Interesting - Charts Down Under
Posted on February 4, 2008 at 15:39 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
And Across the Pond…The big story last week was the FOMC justifiably cutting the Fed Funds rates to 3.0% with the Non Farm Payrolls coming in with negative growth for the 1st time in over four years.But this week has Australia, the UK, and the Euro zone set to adjust rates.
Let’s look at the Aussie for nowCurrently the consensus is that the RBA - Reserve Bank of Australia being concerned about inflation
will raise rates from 6.75% to 7.0%,On Thursday the Bank of England is poised to cut from 5.5 to 5.25%
There is momentum in the AUD to continue it’s appreciation.
So Let’s Look at the Charts:http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Feb4-GBPAUD-%20Daily_thumb_1.jpg
Interest Rate Differential - Gap Widens!
With US rates at 3.0 and RBA set to raise to 7% - That’s a significant spread.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Feb4-AUD-USD%2030min_thumb_1.jpg
Click on Charts to Enlarge
Not Sure What To Do with this information?
Jerry Furstis an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”. He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 30 Minute Consultation with Jerry
Bernanke Watches Futures - Trader Watches Past and Reminisces of the Shoe Shine Boy & CNBC Girls
Posted on January 24, 2008 at 6:16 in Uncategorized by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
Hello - My Name is Jerry, and I am a Trading Geek!
About a month ago I accidentally stumbled across one of my many market time capsules. A copy of the Wall Street Journal in the middle of the tech bubble burst. Perhaps it was a premonition.
I brought it to the Investors Education Network meeting I held in Ft Lauderdale on January 6th and stated that we were likely heading for similar extreme days.-days when the DOW opens down over 200 points - by Noon it Could be Up 300 points and end the day virtually unchanged - Days like yesterday!
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/WSJ%20-%20July%2025%202002%20-%20DOW%20Surges%20488-small_thumb.jpg
Wall Street Journal July 25, 2002 - VHS Tape 1 of CNBC for that Day
I submit the image above as actual proof! of my past and present passion for trading.July 25, 2002 was a temporary reprieve from the final slaughtering off of the tech bubble. There was still plenty of Volatility left for a few months.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2002-Market%20Crash_thumb.jpg
Chart of the last major volatility session on the DOW Industrials.
(click to enlarge)
On Monday - I looked at that paper from over 5 years ago and opened up my chest of Video tapes from that era, and out of 100’s of tapes, the exact date of the paper July 25, 2002 was the 3d tape I pulled out! Coincidence? Trust me when I say I have hundreds of tapes…
The equity markets were closed in the US Monday - I did not want to trade in this environment especiallyas I was preparing for a trip to New York - So I popped in the tape and enjoyed watching the parade of once familiar pretty CNBC girls of days gone by - and once familiar stock symbols ….. wondering where are they now?….. and happy to trade currencies as my primary vehicle.
But then it occurred to me that Ben Bernanke stated to Congress last week that he watches the Futures to help determine the fair value of interest rates as determined by traders. It made me think… Ben’s looking at the Future - and I am looking at a newspaper and watching a video of the markets from 2002!
That was a time not that long ago - before FX trading was even available to the average retail trader… yeah… no high speed internet, delayed quotes, commissions were still a huge cost of doing business…
I stated in my post two days ago that we were heading for a Bear Market Rally - We got it today. Unfortunately I am hearing people say we put in a bottom. I strongly disagree. We narrowly averted a Black Tuesday of historic proportions - but we have probably only delayed the inevitable.
The Shoe Shine Boy Wears Prada!
As I was getting my hair trimmed today - a new hair stylist asked what I do…. When I explained that I trade currencies, and that I teach people how to trade - she got all excited and told me about how she wanted me to check out the credibility of a firm guaranteeing 3% returns… per month…. based out of some South American country….backed by the Bank of America and Washington Mutual… HmmmmmI thought….
It reminded me of the famous anecdote about getting stock tips from the Shoe Shine Boy just before the Great Depression , made famous by Joe Kennedy…
Posted on January 22, 2008 at 1:44 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
I want to take a moment to address the equity markets as I feel they are becoming a major factor for the currencies. Like an afternoon Florida thunderstorm, I’ve seen and heard these familiar flashes and rumblings before. Ohhh - but wait - Global warming makes it different now!
It’s Different This Time…
The Futures markets crumbled Monday as the equity markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day, and Reuters is reporting that the bull market that began in October 2002 is over.
Hi Volatility - Good Bye DOW
DOW Crumbles as expectations for VIX to pick up the Volatility.
Click on Image to Enlarge
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Jan18-DOW%20Daily_thumb_1.jpg
The Headlines are screaming “Recession” and the traditional news outfits are making room for the financial experts to explain what’s wrong. Contrarians will tell you that means that we are ready for a jolt to the upside. Or in other words - a Bear Market Rally. Click on Image to Enlarge
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Jan18-VIX%20Daily_thumb_1.jpg
Although the first part of this market downturn is probably in place -Traders beware - and be aware It’s time to “Strap On” your seat belts - tight (with stops) - just in case - and prepare to enjoy the ride! But only If you have the stomach for it.As the Daily Chart on the DOW shows we have solidly breached the 200 MA after testing it twice and now we are way south of the 50MA - Which should call for a “Snap Back” - before prices continue to fall.
Currency Traders Watching the Dollar Gain Against the CAD
We all live in this global, Internet based world, So if the dollar continues to lose value - other countries should not need to raise their interest rates - but will they or wont they? Canada and Japan have the opportunity to adjust their interest rates this week. Well they can always adjust their rates at any time (Just like some want Ben Bernanke to do)- but it’s best to stick to the calendar of events.
The USD- CAD is trending quite nicely and current price puts it smack in the middle of a channel with upper and lower ranges. If price breaks beyond those ranges - then the dollar may be expected to be moving in other pairs accordingly.
- Click on Image to Enlarge
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Jan21-US-CAD%204%20Hour_thumb_1.jpg
Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 30 Minute Consultation
FOMC Under Pressure to Cut Rates - Damn the Dollar!
Posted on January 8, 2008 at 7:35 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Lots on the Calendar and Lots on the Line! and the TV too…
A full week of scheduled economic events kicks off the first full week of 2008. Store Sales, Pending Home Sales, Consumer Credit, Trade Reports, Import Export Prices all have plenty of weight to push the charts around. Don’t worry about some speed boats playing around in the gulf. Look the other way and move on please…..
Bank of England and European Central Bank Poised to Cut?
Thursday is the really big day to watch as Interest rate decisions are made across the pond from Bernanke and his advisors. The pressure is on the US to lower rates and some are calling for a .50 cut. Is it wise for the UK to keep rates at 5.5% and can the Euro zone hold back from raising rates from 4.0%? It is the wide range of opinions that will likely spike the charts. Be careful! Mark your calendar for January 30th, as you are invited to a free webinar here on FX Street with my live coverage before, during, and after the FOMC announcement showing you live chart analysis and commentary.Click Here to Register Now.
Classic Chart Pattern - Head and Shoulders
Pound under Pressure as Yen breaks support of neck line. Although nothing in the market is guaranteed, the Head and Shoulders pattern is not to be ignored - especially when it is well formed. Back on December 22 (see prior post) I called this formation at a decision point. Well, if you believe in technical analysis - the pattern is now in play. Being a weekly chart it is on time for a violent move - just in time for Thursdays rate announcement. As always - this blog is foreducational purposes only and not meant to be used as financial or trading advice. (Click on Chart to Enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008Jan8%20GBP-JPY%20W%20H-S_thumb.jpg
US Treasury Secretary Paulson to Host CNBC Tuesday at 8am EST
Say what you want about financial television, It’s entertainment or some might call it “Edutainment”. But traders take note - US Secretary Treasury Paulson is scheduled to “cop a squat” on Squawk Box 8amEST on Tuesday January 8. This comes a few days after he had a three way with his boss George and Ben last Friday. The friendly banter will probably flow easily between Becky, Joe, and Steve. Maybe Larry Kudlow will be up early to gush on about “The Greatest Story Never Told!”
US Economy -Mfg and Exporting Rose Colored Glasses
The king of Financial TV networks, CNBC has lately been looking like cheerleaders for US government financial policy with Larry Kudlow proudly standing in front of the US flag, and most of the pundits trying their best to paint a happy face.Click Here to See article from August 21, 2007
Now don’t get me wrong James Cramer, Rick Santelli, and Art Cashin know what’s happening and are not afraid to say it - but quite frankly I get upset seeing all the happy talk about how great it is that foreign countries are buying the US financial infrastructure and John Thain has to go begging for Meryl Lynch to survive. OK guys - keep re-arranging the chairs and play another tune….
Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 30 Minute Consultation
Happy New Year - 2008 FX Has Spiked Punch?
Posted on January 1, 2008 at 23:43 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/Trading%20is%20Closed%20-%20Holidays%20Broker%20Notice_thumb.jpg
Does your broker display a message similar to the one above?
Charts Show Narrow But Active New Years Day Trading Range
Even though New Years Day is the quietest of all market times, the currency markets are still moving as someone is always exchanging money somewhere.
Euro Posts 160 Pip Drop During NY Session
( Click on Charts to Enlarge )
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-Jan1-30Min%20Eur-%20New%20Years%20Range_thumb.jpg
Dollar Shows New Years Eve Strength - Will It Last?
As the final trading day of 2007 ticked in and clocked out,most people in New York were making plans for the ball to drop in Times Square, mean while downtown in the financial district the US Dollar regained some impressive ground in the few hours between the NY open and the London close.
Pound Sterling Drops Over 280 Pips in Two Hours
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-Jan1-30Min%20GBP-%20New%20Years%20Range_thumb.jpg
In the fast paced and high stakes currency trading world, there’s always a trading geek out there somewhere scratching his head wondering which broker, exchange, or institution will let him place a trade on a Holiday - Even New Years! (That would be me…)
Greenback Gains over 220 pips on Loonie
Dollar gains vs Canadian Loonie in last trading hours of 2007 - but shows a 70 pip retracement on New Years Day!
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2008-Jan1-30Min%20CAD-%20New%20Years%20Range_thumb.jpg
Are You Prepared for 2008?
2008 is Setting Up for one of the most volatile years ever! The Headlines are intriguing - Sub Prime Mortgage Mess, Gold Spiking, US Dollar Under Pressure, Oil Breaking over $100, Interest Rate Quagmire - The List Goes On! If you have not done so already, the New Year is the best time to review and/or put together a trading plan and detail your strategies for trade and money management. Have realistic weekly - and monthly goals. Sounds simple and contrite ……right?? But have you done it?
As Always - The markets continue to move and present potentially fantastic opportunities in this New Year!
Wishing You the Best Of Trading Success in 2008 and Beyond!
Jerry Furstbroadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead” and facilitates and presents his own live educational workshops. Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 30 Minute Consultation
Holiday Predicament - To Trade or Go On Vacation
Posted on December 22, 2007 at 0:03 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Dollar Rebounds - Central Banks Intervene - Happy Holidays!Over the past month the US Dollar has pulled the pendulum back from the brink of the breaking point. November 9 showed the British Sterling peaking at almost 2.12 to the Dollar. Two days earlier the Canadian Loonie put the dollar at 0.90 cents.
That’s just too much loss of value for the worlds default currency too fast. As we head into the end of 2007 and the week between Christmas and New Years the US Dollar has regained some of it’s luster - back below 2.00 for the Pound (1.98) and back at Parity with the Canadian Loonie.
Foreign Exchange Markets Never Go On HolidayWhat About Traders? It’s hard to imagine that the worlds banks and traders can continue to ignore their large and long term positions during low volume Holiday trading sessions. In the US you have 24 hour mini-markets open 7×24x365 to sell milk, beer, and cigarettes.
It’s Different This Time! The Central Banks of the world on December 12 determined that they must work together to avoid a global financial malfunction. Since that announcement you can see on the charts what some people might call intervention and support of the US Dollar.
The Big Question is:Will there be a major move during the “low volume” “empty seats” Holiday week?
Pound-Yen Paused for Major Move? (Click to Enlarge Chart)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Dec21GBPJPY%20Weekly%20HS%20Paused_thumb.jpg
Jerry Furstbroadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead” and facilitates and presents his own live educational workshops. Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Click Here for a Free Survey and 30 Minute Consultation
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Dragonfly Doji Printed At The TopWhen price opens and closes at the same point on a candlestick chart, it creates a line that crosses the wick above the low and below the high. During the week of Nov 9th,The British Pound Sterling posted a high of 2.1161 only to close at 2.0895. When there is a long wick, it created what is called a “dragonfly Doji”.
Then the Move Down - Indicating a Reversal?The following week of Nov 16th posted a long black down candle that has completely engulfed the impressive move up during the week of Nov 2 when price closed just below the high of the week at 2.0898.
A Three Component Star Pattern - Putting It TogetherThink of “evening stars” as an indication that the sun is going down, bringing more more darkness is coming. (translation = down trend). Here is the current weekly chart for GBP-USD.
Evening Star Pattern - (Click to Enlarge) http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Nov22-Pound%20Dollar%20-%20Evening%20Star%20Pattern%20-%20Weekly_thumb.png
The Opposite of Evening is….. Morning The US Dollar vs the Canadian Loonie Weekly chart is showing the opposite of the “Evening Star” pattern with a “Morning Star” Pattern. In this case think of morning as bringing more light as the sun rises (translation = up trend)
Instead of a “Dragonfly Doji”, we have a a long wick down creating a classic “Hammer” pattern as the Nov 9th weekly low of 0.9059 is printed. The key here is that the hammer is at the end of the run down, and the week of Nov 16th not only penetrated but closed at 0.9717, well above the week of November 2nd’s opening price of 0.9622.
Here is the current weekly chart for USD-CAD.
Morning Star Pattern - (Click to Enlarge)http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Nov22-Dollar%20Canadian%20Loonie%20-%20Morning%20Star%20Candlestick%20Pattern%20-%20Weekly_thumb.png
Not sure what to do with this information? Want to learn how to trade better with more proficiency, more successfully - Quickly? Click Here to Get a Free Checkup on Your Trading Skills and Get a Free 30 Minute Consultation with IEN Sr. Technical Analyst and Trader Jerry Furst.
Jerry Furstbroadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead” and facilitates and presents his own live educational workshops. Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
New Week for Weaker Dollar?
Posted on November 13, 2007 at 6:24 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Dilemma for the Dollar
As the US Dollar continues to deteriorate, Front page headlines suggest to seasoned traders that the worst may be over for now. But last Friday while panic seemed to run rampant over comments from China that they may be moving their US Dollar Reserves into other assets - US Secretary Paulson was adding fuel to the bonfire of the greenbacks pleading forChina to float the Yuan.
US Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks with Forked Tongue
Lets analyze this for a moment: The US has a strong Dollar Policy?? Who’s dollar is he talking about? This is as ludicrous as the propaganda that importing illegal immigrants and shipping US jobs overseas is good for US workers! But I digress… the concept is that ifChina floats the Yuan - the US Dollar falls through to basement level 13. Add to that the fact that imports from China will become more expensive. That makes holiday shopping for poison toys more expensive!
What’s Bernanke and the Fed To Do?
Because inflation has supposedly been the primary concern of the FOMC, any further increase in inflationary numbers will make the "data dependent" Bernanke team less likely to want to lower rates. That is until the consumer sentiment numbers come in weak and pressure is added to lubricate a slowing economy - especially as the US election cycle heats up through primary season.
Question of the Week
If you were going to accept a job at an international company with a huge salary - What currency would you want to be paid in? Which country would you like to have your money parked in? You can Answer by clicking on the link below.
Will Pound Rebound After Giving Back Over 640 Pips?
From the Friday Nov 9th London Open through Monday the US Dollar staged a slight comeback. The Pound fell from 2.1161 to 2.0519. However, this may be short lived as Candlestick "Tweezers Bottom" on the 4 hour chart may currently signal a rebound.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Nov12-GBP-USD_thumb.png
Euro Gives Back 233 Pips and Bouncing…
Testing 25% Retracement on 30 minute chart
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Nov12-EUR-USD_thumb.png
While Dollar Crumbles Against Yen Loses Over 560 Pips
Carry Traders Threatened or Sliced and Diced?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Nov12-%20USD-JPY_thumb.png
Not sure what to do with this information? Want to learn how to trade better with more proficiency, more successfully - Quickly? Click Here to Get a Free Checkup on Your Trading Skills and Get a Free 30 Minute Consultation with IEN Sr. Technical Analyst and Trader Jerry Furst.
Jerry Furstbroadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead" and facilitates and presents his own live educational workshops. Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Jerry Furstbroadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead" and facilitates and presents his own live educational workshops. Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Today’s Technical Analysis Lesson
Posted on November 2, 2007 at 15:29 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
News Spikes Can Show Support Resistance Zones
The Non Farm Payroll came in strong today posting at over 166,000 more jobs created in the US last month - more than twice the expectations…. Woooopeee! Now let’s look at the Charts!
Often times news spikes can be quite useful in seeing Support and Resistance zones. Why these spikes are hammered out to the North and South is a debate that can fill another column. But the charts do not lie. This is where money changes hands in the heat of battle for all to see.
Sometimes News Spikes = High Low Water Marks
The following are Highs and Lows posted on the 30 min charts after NFP Nov 2-2007. I sometimes use these as Support and Resistance Zones. Note: All posts in this blog and web broadcasts are strictly for educational purposes only and never meant to be considered as, or implied as trading advice!
PairHighLowUSD-CHF1.15711.1489EUR-USD1.45261.4446GBP-USD2.08692.0780(Source eSignal Composite)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Nov2-NFP%20CHF%20Spike%20High%20Low%20Water%20Mark_thumb.png
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Nov2-NFP%20EUR%20Spike%20High%20Low%20Water%20Mark_thumb.png http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Nov2-NFP%20GBP%20Spike%20High%20Low%20Water%20Mark_thumb.png
Not sure what to do with this information? Want to learn how to trade better with more proficiency, more successfully - Quickly? Click Here to Get a Free Checkup on Your Trading Skills and Get a Free 30 Minute Consultation with Sr. Technical Analyst and Trader Jerry Furst.
Jerry Furstbroadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead” and facilitates and presents his own live educational workshops. Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
NFP Does Anyone Care?
Posted on November 2, 2007 at 14:50 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Retracement Over Due - Even If Short Lived?
The USNon Farm Payroll data came in much higher than expected. The numbers look good for the US economy. Add to that two quarters of decent growth in GDP. But does anyone really care? Merrill Lynch and the banking sectors are keeping Credit Crunch worries alive - making good economic numbers null and void of reassurance.
FOMC Interest Rate and US GDP - October 31 Live Webinar as US Dollar Continues to Slide
Posted on October 30, 2007 at 21:31 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
US Consumer Confidence Weak - Slow Down in Progress
The October number came in at 95.6 vs 99.5 in September (revised down from 99.8). Expectations were that Consumer Confidence would come in at 99. So clearly this is indicating that the slowdown is in progress. The US Dollar is taking a beating.
Oil and Inflation Up - Interest Rates to Drop?
The US packs the economic calendar this Halloween with GDP and the FOMC Interest Rate Announcement Headed by Ben Bernanke and team. The latest statement by the Fed Chief that I am listening to is that the Fed is still “Data Dependant”
Who’s Data Is It that Bernanke Is Looking At?
On October 25th John Crudele of the New York Post wrote an article stating that US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has met with Ben Bernanke 58 times and other Treasury officials 66 times. Averaging 4.1 meetings per month with Paulson. To contrast this, Crudele points out that the former US Treasury Director John Snow only met with the Fed Chief on an average of 1.6 times per month. Now this is an interesting excursion in statistics that could fill another blog - But the point being is a question: Is the FOMC being coached by the Treasury ?Now filling Alan Greenspan’s shoes is a big job and I have no problem with Bernanke seeking advice. My question is, Is the Fed taking orders or to be subtle “being coached” ? Click Here for the New York Post Article
UK Pound Sterling Continues to Punish Greenback - Update
My Post on October 26th clearly showed an Inverse Head and Shoulders coinciding with a nice Trend Channel with matching price movement targets of approximately 2.12 for the Pound vs the US Dollar. Thesetwo chart patterns converge with the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension. Now I never make trade recommendations because everyone has their own risk tolerance, but this chart pattern is starting to play out. Actually it’s going slower than I prefer, but these are lofty heights for the Pound. See the October 26th Post and the current chart here. (Click to Enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Oct30-Head-Shoulders-Trend%20Chanell-Pound-Dollar_thumb.png
Live Webinar Coverage of Both Reports GDP and FOMC Oct 31 Click on each link below to tune into Free Live Special Webinar Coverage of these most important scheduled economic events. You will see Jerry broadcast live technical analysis and discussion of these events before and as they happen. Click Here to Register for Live Coverage of the US GDP Click Here for Live Coverage of FOMC US Interest Rate Decision Jerry Furst also broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead” and facilitates and presents his own live educational workshops. Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Red Sox Win World Series with FX Trend Trader Owner
Posted on October 29, 2007 at 6:54 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
What Will You Do After Making Billions Trading?
The Boston Red Sox have won the World Series! What does this have to do with trading? John Henry is the owner of the Red Sox and was the owner of the Florida Marlins. He took both teams to win the championship in short order. What did John Henry do before buying languishing baseball teams and seeing them win? He was a currency and commodities trader! Successful people have goals and visions, What would you do as a successful trader with more money than you could ever need?Hopefully you will choose to do something good to inspire people and make a positive contribution.
Henry Capitalized on Infamous Rogue Trader, Nick Leeson
Back in 1995, while the world press focused on the demise of Barings Bank and Nick Leeson, they failed to highlight where the money went. Even the movie "Rouge Trader" often touted as a classic movie for traders failed to focus on the money being won by people like John Henry taking the opposite side of Leeson’s trades. In fact it is sad that almost all movies with plots on trading like "Wall Street", "Trading Places" and "Boiler Room" are only focusing on the negative connotations of trading and the people in the industry.
We need more success stories!
There is a fantastic biography of John Henry on the Turtle Traders web site. It gives great insight into how John Henry turned $16,000 USD into more than $1 Billion USD.
Trend Trading Not Short Term Scalping Made Him a Billionaire
There are other great insights in this article. "The discipline to wait for and ride the big move is richly rewarded" Click Here to read about this most successful baseball owner - and how he got to where he is today starting out as a Currency Trader.
Live Webinar Coverage of Both Reports GDP and FOMC Oct 31
Click on each link below to tune into Free Live Special Webinar Coverage of these most important scheduled economic events. You will see Jerry broadcast live technical analysis and discussion of these events before and as they happen.
Click Here to Register for Live Coverage of the US GDP
Click Here for Live Coverage of FOMC US Interest Rate Decision
Jerry Furst also broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead" and facilitates and presents his own live educational workshops. Jerry is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network(IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Sterling Set to Pound the Dollar?
Posted on October 26, 2007 at 6:04 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
I’m Back!
Thank you for your patience as I have been rebuilding my main Trading Station after a nasty Hard Drive Failure, that coincided with a business conference in Los Angeles. I had an opportunity to witness the wild fires burning over California from a safe distance of 30,000 feet on my return home.
US Dollar Set To Slide vs Pound ?
There is a very nice technical analysis lesson here (For Educational Purposes Only - Not a Trade Recommendation)that shows a very nice example of a Head and Shoulders, Trend Channel and Fibonacci Convergence on the Pound Sterling vs. the US Dollar.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Oct25-Head-Shoulders-Trend%20Chanell-Pound-Dollar_thumb.png
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Oct25-Price-Movement-Projection_thumb.png
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/2007Oct25-Fibonacci-Convergance_thumb.png
Trick or Treat - Halloween Schedule for the US Markets
The next scheduled FOMC announcement is on October 31 coinciding with a GDP release earlier that morning. Providing the US markets with a true "Halloween" of tricks and treats and potential ghouls, ghosts, and goblins! It would be interesting to see Bernanke and Paulson come out in some costumes - Which would best fit them and the economic situation?
Live Webinar Coverage of Both Reports GDP and FOMC Oct 31
Click on each link below to tune into Free Live Webinar Coverage where you will see live technical analysis and discussion of these events before and as they happen.
Click Here to Register for Live Coverage of the US GDP
Click Here for Live Coverage of FOMC US Interest Rate Decision
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
mentor and trading coach to select clients.Dollar Stabilizing at Parity with Canadian Loonie
Posted on October 2, 2007 at 22:57 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Is US Dollar Oversold or In Need of a Bounce? The Loonie seems to have stabilized right around parity with the US Dollar after hitting lows of 0.9910. With no significant news coming out of Canada until Friday’s employment numbers, price may bounce between 1.007 and the recent low.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/DollarStabilizingatParitywithCanadianLoo_EE0A/2007Oct2%20-%20USD%20CAD%20Stabalizing%20at%20Parity.jpg
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Dow Intra Day Highs - Dollar Index Lows
Posted on October 1, 2007 at 18:34 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
New Quarter - New Month - Beware October
As the media is having a “Giddy Up” spin as the DOW 30 hitting all time intra day highs - It needs to be pointed out that these 30 Stocks are not representative of the thousands of others. New money coming into the market.
Beware the Month of October and Sub Prime Monster!
October is traditionally a volatile month. Many homeowner loans are set to be readjusted. For those who have already forgotten that the sub-prime monster is still alive and well, It is worth stating that the Housing bubble started inflating in 2001 with 5 and 7 year ARMS still ticking to reset over the next few years.
Dollar Index Hitting Record Lows
Bloomberg has a fantastic article with analysis covering several bases. The US Dollar Index is making historic lows never seen since the NYBOT first started tracking the basket of currencies used to gauge the greenbacks strength.
The article also gives opinions on consumer confidence, inflation, and hints at speculation on what the ECB may do later this week. “The expectation of an ECB ease was squashed”. said Robert Since - Bank of New York.
Click Here to read the Bloomberg Article in it’s entirety
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Live Webinar Coverage of US GDP Report Begins at 7:30am EST (11:30GMT) Bad News = Good News?
Posted on September 26, 2007 at 21:23 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Click Here for Live Coverage of US GDP Report Thursday Sept 27 - The US GDP report is closely watched as it tells institutions, governments, investors, and traders about the overall health of the US Economy. As traders we can either stand aside, or trade. But we must be aware of these scheduled economic events.
When you mix the current Volatility of the markets with the release of this fundamental data, there is likely to be a temporary spike on the charts.
Tune In and Trade Along!
Does Bad News for the US Economy mean Good News for the US Dollar? This presentation will have an in-depth look at this scheduled volatility event. Click Here to Register forthis Educational and Technical Analysis Session
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
No News Monday - Interesting Week Ahead
Posted on September 24, 2007 at 18:54 in Uncategorized by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
No Scheduled Economic News of any significance scheduled. Tuesday should be a bit more interesting as Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales are both scheduled for 10am EST.
Mover and Shaker at the Podium
Iranian President and accused 1970’s Hostage taker - takes on the Big Apple and the United Nations. In a true testament to the United States greatness of freedom, he will address the National Press Club, and Columbia University. Despite diplomatic Immunity,I hope somebody checks his luggage!
Mainstream Media - The Contrary Indicator
The US Dollar is getting attention in the mainstream press as being under pressure - So I believe a retracement of last weeks losses are a possibility!Traders may want to look for pullbacks as the greenback needs to “breath” a little.
How do you spell”Intervention”?
This as the ECB’s Trichet and Noyer are warning of excess volatility if the Dollar continues to weaken. Market News International reports Noyer as saying, ” excess volatility and disorderly movements (in exchange rates) are undesirable for economic growth.”
The Sterling - Dollar in a Nice Channel
The Pound is sportinga strong up channel with upper and lower boundaries. Fibonacci Support is at approx 2.015 and Resistance at 2.026.
Click on Chart to Enlarge
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/NoNewsMondayInterestingWeekAhead_B580/2007Sept23-GBPUSD-%20Weekly%20Channel_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg
Be sure to Registerfor this weeks live webinar coverage the US GDP Report Thursday starting at 7:30am EST live on FX Street with Investors Education Network’s Sr Analyst and Trainer Jerry Furst
Canadian Dollar at Parity with US Dollar
Posted on September 20, 2007 at 16:18 in Uncategorized by Jerry Furst2 Comments »
$82 Oil - Safe Haven - Gold Maple Leafs
There are plenty of reasons why the Canadian Loonie is eye to eye with the US Dollar. With Gold at 30 year highs and jawboning by the talking heads discussing $200 Oil - What’s not to like about things Canadian. Eh, I hear they have a health plan too!
Prediction of Parity By End Of Summer - Complete!
Today at approx 9:11am EST the Loonie dropped to a low of 0.9999. for the first time since the US Bi-Centennial, Jimmy Carter, Peter Frampton, Shah of Iran, era of 1976! With September 23 marking the end of Summer my prediction on this blog (posted May 15th - see archives) that we would see parity by the end of the season has come to fruition.
Lowest Level since 1976! Is it Sustainable?
But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, This could also be viewedlike climbing a mountain: Why did the Canadian Dollar reach Parity with the US?“Because It Is There”! Now that we have reached the Peak - Is it time to come back down?Having talked with many Canadians just last week at a conference in NY, many businesses in Canada do not want a high Loonie!
Other Predictions and Posts
Head and Shoulders Pattern Completed - On September 8 I posted a Dual Head and Shoulder pattern that completed as Ben Bernanke and the FOMC lowered interest rates .50% in a surprisingly aggressive move.I hope you all tuned in to the Webcast on FX Street.com.
Where Do We Go From Here?
The Fibonacci Extensions from July 25 to the August 16th high show that 1.0014 is the 1.618 level which is where price is bouncing around as I type. The next support level is 0.9924 at the 1.786 extension.
Click on the Charts to Enlarge (see Sept 8 and May 15th posts)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/CanadianDollaratParitywithUSDollar_9103/2007Sep20%20USD-CAD%20-%20Parity_thumb%5B1%5D_1.jpg
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Tune in to live Webcasts on FX Street.com every Monday at 7am EST Register Here
Guessing Game for Interest Rates Returns
Posted on September 18, 2007 at 1:31 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
And So Does the Volatility!
It was even a commercial - the little kid on the bus smugly asks the business man, ” So what do you think the Fed is going to do with Interest Rates?”
_____________________________________________________________
Free Webinar - Tune into the Live Coverage of the FOMC Interest Rate Announcement and Watch the Charts Live and Trade Along- 17:30 GMT 13:30 EST - Register
_____________________________________________________________
What’s the Fed Going To Do?
Gone are the days of the “Briefcase Indicator” where it was judged that if Fed Chairman Greenspan had a thick briefcase, it was likely a large interest rate increase or decrease.
Ben Bernanke scheduled to make his first interest rate change since taking the chairmanship, and the guessing game is on! Not only as to what action the FOMC will take - but what will the wording be accompanying the expected announcement and, will they lower by a .25 or .50%?
Adventures in Turbulence - Greenspan’s Concern is on Inflation
The former Federal Reserve Chairman is making the rounds on TV and granting interviews for his new book: ”The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in aNew World”. Although he seems to be focused on inflation - This blogger feels that a narrow focus on inflation is naive to the new dynamic of global markets and a United States that no longer has an industrial manufacturing base at it’s core.
Raising Interest Rates and Asking the Chinese to Float Currency
will only cause the cost of goods to go up! Gone are the days when we needed to cool off an overheated factory working overtime and creating too many widgets that would go unsold.
This is the problem you get when people from academia and political circles make decisions based on text books and past experiences.
Those Who Fail To Remember History …
Are Condemned to Repeat it - This old and wise adage needs to be revised as history does not repeat. Each cycle is unique in it’s own way. To put on blinders and just say let’s fight inflation and not worry about everything else- Well that is a just a Bull headed way of thinking that may let the Bears have the day!
Free Webinar Coverage of Fed Announcement
Tune into the Live Coverage of the FOMC Interest Rate Announcement - and Watch the Charts Live and Trade Along- 17:30 GMT 13:30 EST - Register Here
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Non Farm Payrolls - Worst in over 4 Years
Posted on September 8, 2007 at 0:45 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Recession Looming? or Worse?
The much weakerresults of today’s employment report is raising fears of a US recession. Bernanke now has a green light to lower rates, as signs of US recession are becoming apparent.
Latest Economic Standoff - Where is Your Money Safest?
Because the US is so important to the global economy,we are at a standoff on whether or not to be US Dollar bearish - but at the same time need to be risk averse. This is a contradiction of sorts. Where do you feel safe putting your money? If it’s not in the US Dollar - then the US Dollar tanks - If the US Dollar tanks, it will likely take down whatever you thought was safer than the US Dollar - and round and round she goes!
Commodities - Gold and Oil Rising - Normal Cycle?
Gold has been rallying - and may be a flight to safety, Although other metals may be a better bet - depending on your entry and exit strategy. Oil and other commodities are in play. Is this a normal business cycle?
US Dollar - Canadian Loonie - Dual Head and Shoulder Pattern
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/NonFarmPayrollsWorstinover4Years_107B2/2007Sep7%20USD-CAD%20Dual%20H-S_thumb%5B2%5D.jpg
The Monday Webinar “1st on Forex - Week Ahead” will return Sept 17th and
Click Here to Register now to tune in to the live FOMC interest rate announcement - Webcast on Free on FX Street on Tuesday September 18th. broadcast.
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Labor Day is Over - Back to Work
Posted on September 4, 2007 at 5:11 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Typically September and October signal the busiest times on the financial markets before the Holidays set in in November. The sub prime mess amongst other issues are no where near resolved - so it is expected that the volatility will continue to rock the markets.
Interest Rate Watch
The biggest question mark brings back memories of the Greenspan era of wondering what the Fed will do with Interest rates. Bernanke up until now has been considered to be quite transparent, which was easy to do when you just leave the controls on autopilot. He was almost found to be asleep at the wheel only concerned about inflation.
Quick action by the Treasury department coordinated with the central banks around the globe injecting liquidity to avoid a major meltdown gave the public the impression that Bernanke had all under control - when in fact he narrowly missed being called on the carpet.
All indications are that a .25% cut is priced in - and the possibility of a .50 point cut is possible. Be sure to registerfor my live Webcast of the FOMC meeting September 18 and watch the action on the charts live!
Australia GDP comes in Stronger than Expected
Triangle Pattern setting up on the 4 Hour Chart - Sept 3 - 22:00 EST
Click on chart to enlarge
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/LaborDayisOverBacktoWork_14625/2007Sep3Aud-USD%20240%20-%20Triangle_thumb.jpg
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Volume is Down - Volatility Picks Up
Posted on August 30, 2007 at 0:06 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Bernanke Speaks Friday before Labor Day
While the Equity markets are riding a roller coaster - the currency markets are also showing some nice volatility. Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak at the end of the week that is typically considered a holiday before the Labor Day holiday.As always - I caution FX traders and traders of all markets to be vigilant around US holidays, as volatility can spike and potential trend reversals can take place during these times.
A Look at the Charts
The Euro appears to be in a nice channel on the Daily Chart below and the Fibonacci levels from the high of April 30 to the low of June 13 seems to be holding support and resistance quite nicely.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/VolumeisDownVolatilityPicksUp_FEBB/2007Aug29-EUR-USd%20Daily%20Channel_thumb.jpg
Live Coverage of US GDP Report Tomorrow
Note: I will be doing a Free Webcast covering this weeks US GDP Report on FX Street. The broadcast begins at 11:30 GMT (7:30am EST) Click Here to Register forthis Educational and Technical Analysis Session
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on August 24, 2007 at 19:42 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Japanese Housewife nets over $400 Million Yen Trading FX
The trader was perhaps thinking she was too smart as she allegedly used relatives names to open accounts and failed to pay taxes. She was fined 34 million Yen and given a suspended jail sentence!
Volatility Index
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/VolatilityIndexDropsWorstisOverWhenYouar_C0AB/2007Aug24-VIX_thumb.jpg
To learn more about the savvy FX Trader read these links:
From Yahoo News: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070824/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_japan_forex
From The Economist:http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9661909
From China Posthttp://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/2007/04/23/107861/High-risk-trading.htm
Credit Crunch Craziness Continues
Posted on August 21, 2007 at 5:48 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Special Open Webinar:
“How to Capitalize on the Credit Crunch Crisis”
Is it as bad as the current panic may seem – is it worse or is this an opportunity? Credit Concerns + Commodities + China + Construction + Carry Trade = Volatility.
Traders have many tools available and all will be discussed and dissected from a perspective that pulls it all together in a way that will give you a profitable and positive perspective.
Tune in on FX Street this Wednesday 16:00 GMT - (12 Noon EST) Click Here to Register
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Lowering the Lifeboats - Before the Iceberg Hits!
Posted on August 10, 2007 at 23:10 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
This is getting more interesting. Actions (and words) not seen since Sept 12, 2001 are coming from all corners of the globe. Governments and Central Bankersare the people entrusted with the publics well being.As I ponder the current situation facing the financial markets, I ask a question - Where’s the smoke? Where is the Fire? As of this writing Friday afternoon - Could someone tell me what bank or institution has crumbled in the past few days to warrant the central bankers around the globe to cause such a panic? What do they know?
Governments Have a Gun to Their Head?
There is no apparent crisis, no terrorist attack,no one going to jail.Yet the governments are acting like they have a gun being put to their head. While most people are assuming it is all tied to the US and world wide ( it’s not just the US Real Estate market) speculation bubble deflating, I suspect it is something else….
It’s Not the Sub Prime - Lending Mess!
I broadcast live coverage of this past Tuesday’s FOMC announcement here on FX Street, and I talked about this very situation. Ben Bernanke and team stated almost zero concern regarding fallout from the sub-prime. Inflation remained their primary risk concern and hope for a rate decrease were dashed - temporarily. The next day (Wednesday) President Bush paid a visit to the US Treasury and declared there is no reason to worry about liquidity - and now there’s all this!
China and the US Getting Ready to go at a Trade War
Dollar to Crumble?
What could cause this world wide need for liquidity, as a flood of cash is unleashed from the damns of the central bankers….? Are the Chinese ready to grant the US their wish and float the Yuan - sell all their Bonds??? To crush the US economy?This trader believes this is a real possibility.
I know that this is an awful big limb to step out on….. But on August 1st US Treasury Secretary Paulson warned of a looming Trade War with China. Paulson had recently met with the Chinese president Hu Jintao and had no take away.US Senators led by Harry Reid have had long running concerns of currency manipulation.
This comes after the Senate banking committee voted 17-4 in favor of advancing a bill labeling the Chinese as Currency manipulators.
What are they Not Telling Us?
Today, as the US Fed injects $38 Billion dollars to provide more liquidity into the markets - they had to do it in three separate operations.
Add to this that the ECB and the Bank Of Canada and the Bank of Japan all are providing liquidity not seen since September 12th, 2001 - and everyone is looking around trying to figure out which streets the blood is flowing down! Blame it on the Sub Prime - Paris Hilton - or the Computers - but ignore what might be hiding in plain sight - the US Trade deficit with China.
Look at the date and time below for this posting of this blog post - and tell me who else is currently saying that this has nothing to do with the US Housing Market Sub-Prime problem……Nope I don’t see anyone - yet. The problem is apparent to me.And it’s all about the worthless paper that China may no longer want and is threatening to dump.
Of course this is just my opinion - I could be wrong - I have no inside knowledge of what Ben Bernanke and Trichet know and say - but maybe it’s time to get some real people closer to the ground to tell us what’s happening. Coming from academia may have it’s limitations. Getting the real deal on US exports and what the true rate of inflation is - well that would be a nice start. But can we handle the truth?
Don’t Miss any of my Blog Posts or Webcasts - Be Sure to Subscribe to my Blog by using the Subscription Box to the Right and Click Here to Register to hear my live Webcast and follow my technical analysis every Monday at 11:00 GMT (7am EST ) on FX Street
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
What’s That Sound? Credit Concerns Spread Globally
Posted on August 9, 2007 at 18:08 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
President Bush - Visits US Treasury Yesterday
What did he do and who did he talk to there?
President Bush speaking at a press conference today sated that he is proud of 3.4% GDP growth and is happy with the liquidity in the markets. When questioned about the precarious situation of US Home Owners, President Bush said that he supports FHA assisting people with refinancing.
However - it is the speculation in the markets that is not being addressed.
ECB - Providing Liquidity Due to Hedge Fund Exposure
European markets are under pressure as the ECB is lending 95 Billion Euros to "assure orderly conditions" in the currency markets.Apparently several funds in Europe had exposure large enough to cause Trichet and company some concern.
BOC - Canada Re-Assuring Financial Markets and Public
Why did the Neighbor to the North of the US have to make a public statement?
Talking Heads are Tail Spinning for a Hard Landing
It’s always amusing to see the pundits postulate as they parade the opinions to point fingers - scratch heads - lay blame. I personally like the one where they blame the computers!
As the volatility on the markets continues to increase. It appears as if the alarms are ringing in the financial markets! The governments around the world are putting emergency equipment on the tarmac for the possibility of a hard landing. Is the plane out of fuel and in need of touching down?
The Currency Markets have Reacted Violently
with an overall US Dollar positive bias.
The Euro hit lows of 1.3653 dropping from 1.3818
The British Sterling hit bottom at 2.0208 from a high pf 2.0397
The AUD-USD dropped off a cliff from 0.8665 and grabbed a tree limb at 0.8483
The US Dollar spiked against the Canadian Loonie to 1.0645 from a low of 1.0468
Fed to Lower Rates? Bond Rates Say Yes - and Soon!
During my live Webcast coverage of the FOMC announcement on Tuesday, Explained my reasons why Ben Bernanke and team might now cut rates - in fact I stated it back in this blog on August 3 - Just after I called the Inverse Head and Shoulders on the Aussie - US Dollar.
Don’t Miss any of my Blog Posts or Webcasts - Be Sure to Subscribe to my Blog by using the Subscription Box to the Right and Click Here to Register to hear my live Webcast and follow my technical analysis every Monday at 11:00 GMT (7am EST ) on FX Street
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Live Webcast Coverage of FOMC Interest Rate Announcement on FX Street
Posted on August 7, 2007 at 6:59 in Uncategorized by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
Watch the charts and Analysis Live - Before, During, and After theUS Interest Rate Announcement as Ben Bernanke and the FOMC Team decide to lower, raise or leave US Interest Rates Steady. The broadcast begins at17:30 GMT (13:30 EST) Click Here to Register and Tune InAs Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Non Farm Payrolls - Another Non Event
Posted on August 3, 2007 at 15:43 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Currencies Barely Budged
As most of you know Non Farm Payroll came in with a slightly lower than expected number - with a growth of 92,000 jobs versus the expected 135k for the US.Or at least that is what the government has calculated for our consumption.
The currencies barely reacted, especially in contrast to the 100+ pip spikes that were so common up until about six months ago.
Overall Analysis for the US
Jobs are weakening slightly with GDP slightly rising and the US Government seems to believe (or wants us to believe) that there is very little inflation - add it all up and the FOMC headed by Ben Bernanke can relax and leave US interest rates alone. If the board is bored of keeping rates steady, Bernanke may have an excuse to lower rates if the US economy needs a little help.
NFP - GDP - FOMC - CPI - Where Has the Volatility Gone?
All of these acronyms used to bring me such joy - as I could schedule my trading week around scheduled volatility events. Alas, the one constant in the universe is change - and the markets are no exception. In fact it was the loss of volatility on the equity and futures markets that drove many traders to the currency markets.
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Inverse Head Shoulders Pattern Completed
Posted on August 3, 2007 at 4:27 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Aussie - US Dollar flattening out a new base at 0.8570
after breaking above a high of 0.8600 at 12 Noon EST. This completed the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern identified approx 24 hours earlier. See the last Two Charts for a classic example of how this classic pattern can play out.
(Click on Chart to Enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/InverseHeadShouldersPatternCompleted_13BB2/2007Aug2-AUDUSd%2030%20Min%20Inv%20HS_thumb.jpg
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
AUD-USD Possible Inverted Head Shoulders
Posted on August 1, 2007 at 20:45 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
The US Dollar has been retracing it’s recent losses against the Euro (posting a low of 1.3636) and the Sterling posting a low of 2.0202.
However the Aussie is printing a potential Inverted Head and Shoulder against the US Dollar as of this posting at 2:30 EST
Click On Image to Enlarge Chart
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/AUDUSDPossibleInvertedHeadShoulders_CF93/2007Aug1-AUDUSd%2030%20Min%20Inv%20HS.jpg
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Live Coverage of US GDP Report this Friday
Posted on July 26, 2007 at 0:04 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
IMF Upgrades Expected World Growth Lowering US Expectations
The World Bank has revised it’s Economic Outlook upward to 5.2% for our “Blue Orb”. It’s looking good for China’s GDP with a expectation of an increase of 1.2% there. For the US however, concerns about the housing correction see US GDP revised down 0.2% to 2.0%. The IMF expects the US GDP to pick up next year to 2,.8% Note: I will be doing a Free Webcast covering this weeks US GDP Report on FX Street. The broadcast begins at 11:30 GMT (7:30am EST) Click Here to Register forthis Educational and Technical Analysis Session Click Here to read the full IMF report on Global Growth and Market Risks published today.Bank of New Zealand Raises Rates in Line with Expectations to 8.25%. This resulted in a spike from the 0.8030 range topping out at approx 0.8055 and posting a low of approx0.7990. My sympathies to the stops being taken out on both sides as price then slowly settled back to the 0.8015 range about an hour later. See the 1 minute Chart Below - Click to Enlarge http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/LiveCoverageofUSGDPReportthisFriday_FE22/2007July25%20NZDUSD%201%20Min%20-%20Rate%20Increase_thumb.jpgAs Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
US Dollar Retraces Recent Slide
Posted on July 25, 2007 at 18:54 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
At Noon EST Wednesday the US Dollar was Trading at
1.3709 to the Euro with Lows for the day at 1.3695 2.0507 to Sterling with Lows at 2.0483 1.2029 to the Yen with Highs at at 121.68 1.0414 to the Canadian Loonie - Highs at 1.0451 1.2137 to the CHF - Highs at 1.2168 - (Click on Chart to Enlarge)http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDollarRetracesRecentSlide_B575/2007July25%20USD-CHF%2030%20Min_thumb.jpgAs Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
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Posted on July 24, 2007 at 22:16 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Dollar -Yen testing 120.00
Euro - Yen testing 166.00
Pound - Yen testing near 247.00
Dow to Blame?
Blame is being placed on the US Equities Markets as the DOW drops over 200 points Tuesday. However, the reduction of risk in the Carry Trade and talk of the Asian markets tightening their monetary policies may cause a quick race to the exits.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/YenStrengtheningAsRiskTightenstheHatch_E4EB/2007July24%20USD-JPY%20Daily_thumb.jpg
(Click on Chart to Enlarge)
Be sure to tune in for Live Webcast Coverage of the US GDP report this Friday starting at 7:30am EST - Click Here to Register
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Loonie Rises as Canada Posts Strong Numbers
Posted on July 24, 2007 at 15:40 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Canadian Retail Sales came in at 2.8% far surpassing expectations of 0.6%
The Canadian Loonie has seen continued strengthening as the US Dollar continues to fall. The Dollar fell over 75 pips on the announcement and is seeing a base of support at approx 1.0370.
The Euro also weakening against the Loonie falling more than 100 pips from 1.4450 to form a new base at approx 1.4350
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/LoonieRisesasCanadaPostsStrongNumbers_87FF/2007July24%20USD-CAD%203Min.jpg
(Click on Chart to Enlarge)
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Dollar Trying to Rebound vs Swiss
Posted on July 23, 2007 at 20:59 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
With two hours left in the NY trading session the US Dollar is trying to break above last weeks trading range. At 3pm EST the USD-CHF was trading at approx 1.2070.
Potential Resistance points are 1.2095 and 1.2114, However the Euro and Pound are not confirming this move yet.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/DollarTryingtoReboundvsSwiss_D2DF/2007July23USD-CHF%20daily_thumb.jpg
(Click to Enlarge Chart)
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
I’m Back….. As Dollar Heads For the Hills
Posted on July 23, 2007 at 14:28 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
I’ve just returned from a working vacation in Colorado and the NYSE. A rather stark contrast in settings going from the scenic valleys of Aspen to the Steel Canyons of New York City.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/ImBack.AsDollarHeadsFortheHills_771D/CO%20-%20Cliff%20Side%20Road_thumb.jpg
Coming Around the Mountains of Colorado approx 12,000 ft
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/ImBack.AsDollarHeadsFortheHills_771D/John%20Thain%20and%20Jerry%201st%20-%202.jpg
Jerry Furst interviews John Thain at the NYSE
during two days of briefings at the NYSE Euronext. Key Point of discussion: Will the retail US trader be able to trade equities on a global time frame as the NYSE Euronext continues to expand their reach across the globe?
US Dollar Continues to Slide Down The Slopes
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/ImBack.AsDollarHeadsFortheHills_771D/2007July23%20AUD-USD%2030.jpg
Aussie Dollar Continues to Climb (Click to Enlarge Chart)
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Dollar Continues to Slide - Vacation Time!
Posted on July 5, 2007 at 3:01 in Uncategorized by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
As the US Dollar continues to slide to record lows - This Trader is off for a working vacation - with limited internet access - so beware as usually when I take off for extended periods of time - the markets make extraordinary moves !
The Monday Morning “1st in Forex - the Week Ahead” Webinars and Blog entries here will resume July 23 at 7am EST followed by the Live Coverage of the US GDP Report on Friday July 27th starting at 7:30am EST
Until then - Good Trading to All
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
GDP and FOMC Looms Large Thursday
Posted on June 28, 2007 at 0:26 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Live Webinar Coverage on FX Street
Join me as I broadcast live a Double Header Day of major US Economic announcements.
Register for each separately to get your password
US GDP Report starts at 11:30GMT 7:30 EST - Register Here
FOMC Interest Rate Announcement - 17:30 GMT 13:30 EST - Register Here
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
US Dollar on a Short Leash - Currencies Stuck
Posted on June 15, 2007 at 18:13 in Uncategorized by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
On the end of the leash - Ben “Bull Dog” Bernanke!
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDollaronaShortLeashCurrenciesStuck_ABF9/Ben%20Bull%20Dog%20Bernanke_thumb%5B1%5D.jpg
Bull Dog Defined
The Dog Owners Guide Describes a Bull dog as: Descended from fighting mastiffs brought to the UK by the Roman’s who used them to help keep “Bulls, Bears, and other animals confined in pits” while awaiting the then popular gambling sport of “Animal Baiting” - The Bull Dog with it’s powerful “Jaw” would be used to “Grab a Bull by the nose and hang on until the animal tired and collapsed”
Sleepy Markets Leave News Traders Dreaming
The currency markets have been painfully shy of volatility lately as the US Dollar drifts upwards in strength. Despite a flurry of economic data coming out of the US - The last two weeks have seen the currency markets sleeping and “sawing wood” through what normally would have been a news traders dream.
Friday’s US Calendar of Economic Releases
What a lineup of data: CPI, TIC’s, Industrial Production, along with Current Account Deficit, and Consumer Sentiment - and the markets barely budge - in fact even worse - several spikes and tests of the range have been frustrating to say the least!
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDollaronaShortLeashCurrenciesStuck_ABF9/2007June15-USD-CHF_thumb%5B2%5D.jpg
US Government Workers Reality vs Yours
Core Inflation as reflected through Consumer Prices supposedly were up less than expected, saying inflation is under control - as long as you do not use energy or eat - or need insurance - or travel. Durable Goods are still cheap - because they are all made in China and other places where where they have no environmental or child labor laws. - Get a US Government worker with a guaranteed pension and medical insurance to tell you how the economy is doing.
Problems with Manipulation - I Mean Government Intervention
Maybe “You don’t need a weather man to tell which way the wind blows” My question is - are they controlling the weather? Despite lots of news that should move the money - There is so much “Bull Dog Jaw Boning” between the US Congress (Beating up on China to “unpeg”) US Treasury Secretary Paulson (Stating a strong US Dollar is in the US interests - Duhhhh…nice to figure it out now after his predecessor John Snow’s policy of free floating markets - yeah right!) and now we have Ben “Bull Dog” Bernanke - a kinder - friendlier market manipulator.
But overall - America knows business - and maybe these dogs know what they are doing.
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
ECB Raises Rates - Dollar Rises vs. Euro
Posted on June 6, 2007 at 23:39 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
The European Common Bank headed by Trichet raised rates to 4% from 3.75% as expected. There seems to be some signaling for a pause in Euro rate hikes - but Trichet definitely has left the door open to more hikes if necessary. Inflationary pressures were being blamed primarily on energy prices. I’m just not sure how raising interest rates helps bring down the price of oil.
A look at the 5 Minute Chart shows the Euro dropping vs. the US Dollar and consolidating near 1.35
_1.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/ECBRaisesRatesDollarRisesvs.Euro_F835/2007Jun6-EUR-USD%205%20Min%20ECB%20raises%20rates_thumb%5B1%5D_1.jpg
Tomorrow the UK has it’s interest rate announcement and is expected to keep rates steady at 5.50% - We will see how the Dollar reacts to that.
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com every Monday at 7am EST - Click Here to register
Currencies Acting Sluggish Around News
Posted on June 1, 2007 at 17:40 in Fundamental Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
This past week had an extremely busy calendar of economic reports and events - yet the currency markets reacted unusually stiff.
It’s as if the currencies are tied down with ankle weights
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/CurrenciesActingSluggishAroundNews_A428/Ball%20and%20Chain.jpg
The US Dollar hardly moved after Non-Farm Payrolls and Consumer Sentiment reports were released Friday. Thursday’s GDP report was met with a similar yawn…. Very boring……
Watching paint dry doesn’t get much better than this…Perhaps the G8 summit next week is holding things back? US Tresury Secretary Paulson who is adamant about China floating the Yuan is skipping out of attending the Potsdam Germany Summit - go figure….
This unscheduled boredom for news traders is then followed by large unschedued moves long after the calendar is clear - sometimes even waiting until after the London session is closed - and then a nice break in price develops.
Canadian Dollar Seeking Parity vs. the US Dollar
Bloomberg has a new report on the Canadian Loonies Continuing strength against the US Dollar as 1.06 becomes the next step down - (Click on Chart to enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2007/06/01/2007june1usdcad_30_min_down_to_106.jpg
Sometimes it’s best to take an early weekend.
Tune in to my Webcast Monday morning at 7am EST for a look at the Week Ahead on FX Street - Click Here to Register
US Dollar Falls vs Canada - Stable on Sterling
Posted on May 29, 2007 at 19:52 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
BOC Signals Rate Hike in “Near Term”
The Bank of Canada today stated that rising inflation and strong economic growth may require a increase in interest rates - but held the rate at 4.25% as was expected.
The Chart Below shows the continuing drop of the US Dollar vs. the Loonie
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDollarFallsvsCanadaStableonSterling_C300/2007May29-USDCAD-30Min.jpg
US Consumer Confidence
US Consumer Confidence was surprisingly stronger than expected coming in at 108.0 vs 106.3 in April - This despite rising prices for gasoline and continued strains on the housing markets.
British Sterling Staying Stable - Relatively…
The US Dollar hardly budged vs the Pound on the better than expected confidence numbers. On a Daily Chart the Pound has been slowly giving back it’s gains after penetrating the 2.0000 mark in April, The chart below shows the Cable stuck in a range between the 25 and 28.2 retracement’s.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDollarFallsvsCanadaStableonSterling_C300/2007May29-GBPUSD-Daily.jpg
Live Webcast Coverage of the US GDP Report
Watch live coverage - Click Here to Register
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com every Monday at 7am EST -
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Posted on May 18, 2007 at 6:30 in Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
While the US Dollar has enjoyed a nice rally - Nothing goes in a straight line.
Fundamentally - My guess is that the old adage of the markets hate uncertainty. Well we have a new French President and a new British Prime Minister taking the stage soon. Add in a Japanese carry Trade growing long in the tooth and you have a rising US Dollar. Gold is also falling to support levels.
So is this the end of the US Dollar Rally - or just the Beginning?
The Daily chart below shows how the USD-CHF is approaching the 200 SMA and two Fibonacci retracements that are close enough to be considered a a Fibonacci Cluster. Add the 200 SMA conveniently in between the fibs and we have a formidable resistance point.
Click on the Chart to Enlarge
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2007/05/17/2007may18_usdchf_daily.jpg
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com every Monday at 7am EST - Click Here to Register
Loonie Going Lower? Citigroup Thinks So
Posted on May 15, 2007 at 5:13 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Despite last weeks US Dollar strength - The Loonie is quickly regaining it’s lost ground - trading currently at 1.1055 Bloomberg is reporting that Citigroup has a price target of 1.0400.
Parity in Sight?
With Citigroup making such a bold prediction - we could see US Canadian parity before the end of the summer (If not sooner) as commodities and pressure on the Dollar increases - Despite Treasury Secretary Paulson’s interviews with Maria… But then again if the US has decided that a weak dollar is not coming too easily, then there may be a trading range across the board for the foreseeable future.
The chart below shows the 1.0932 low put in on May 31, 2006 as a double bottom. If that support does not hold - all bets are off.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/LoonieGoingLowerCitigroupThinksSo_14696/2007May14USD-CAD%20Daily_2.jpg
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com every Monday at 7am EST
Dollar Gains and Loses as Carry Trade Unwinds
Posted on May 10, 2007 at 20:39 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Currencies on the Move!
After an uninteresting bunch of Interest rate Announcements from the US - England and Euro land - the US Dollar was busy taking out stops left and right against the Euro and the Pound - even the Loonie is suffering! However the Yen May Be The Culprit!
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/DollarGainsandLosesasCarryTradeUnwinds_CE35/_2007May10-30%20in%20Fib%20Ext-ret%20Ex.jpg
No News Points to Carry Trade Unwinding
Some news services are pointing to a 130 point drop in the US Indexes (At writing The Dow down 130 - SP down 15)However the Yen is appreciating against the US. EURO, and GBP as the Carry Trade is Seeing Some People Run for the Exits.
Forked Tongue?
US Treasury Secretary Paulson has been granting interviews to the general media the last two days and he has been stating a "strong dollar" is always what the US wants… Funny - I could have sworn he stated that he would let market forces dictate exchange rates and the value of the dollar should go where ever…. I need to do some quote research… Feel free to email me your comments…
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com every Monday at 7am EST and Click Here to Registerhttp://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=0dfccab3-208d-4cba-a8f3-a227c3b44b1a
Live FOMC Webcast starts at 1:30 EST
Posted on May 9, 2007 at 18:04 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
All Eyes Turn to the FOMC in the US as Ben Bernanke and Team are expected to keep Interest Rates in the US stable. The calls for a Rate Cut in the US keep coming - but it is highly unlikely.
US economic Growth is slowing as Inflation continues to rise - however this is more due to rising energy prices vs. traditional inflation factors of rising wages causing higher prices.
Dollar Strength Tested Ahead of FOMC Announcement
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/LiveFOMCWebcaststartsat130EST_A9E3/2007May9EUR-USD%205%20Min%20at%20Noon%20Before%20FOMC.jpg
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com every Monday at 7am EST and Register for His Live coverage of the FOMC announcement May 9th beginning at 13:30 EST . Click Here to register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=729422f8-3aa1-4b7d-85ef-72befedffd0c
Posted on May 7, 2007 at 1:44 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Riot Police Deployed as Conservative is Elected
France has elected a new president to replace Jaques Chirac, a staunch conservative that has promised wide economic reform from it’s current policy of being a liberal social welfare state. The Sunday Times reports that the Paris suburbs have thousands of riot police on stand-by.
Why do currency traders care - If you are asking this question - you should consider another way to put your money at risk. The French suburbs erupted in violence in 2005 and spread throughout France - causing the Euro to tumble.
Combine this with the fact that Nicolas Sarkozy has repeatedly made comments regarding the Euro being too strong and that its strength versus the US Dollar is "a serious mistake".
Below is a 60 minute chart of the Euro-USD that shows the currency pair trading in a Fibonacci Box. (Click to Enlarge)
_1.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/FranceElectsSarkozyEurotoSuffer_1157E/2007May6-EUR-USD%2060%20Min_1.jpg
Interesting Week Ahead
Lots of news scheduled on the economic calendars. Most notably is Wednesday when Ben Bernanke and his team make the decision on whether to hold or raise US interest rates. A cut is unlikely with the US economy showing decent strength.
Thursday has interest rate announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.The current consensus is that both banks
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com every Monday at 7am EST and Register for His Live coverage of the FOMC announcement May 9th beginning at 13:30 EST .
Click Here to register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=729422f8-3aa1-4b7d-85ef-72befedffd0c
Yen Continues to Fall as Carry Trades Carry On!
Posted on May 3, 2007 at 7:14 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Euro Makes Historic Highs Vs. the Yen
No end in sight as Japans Interest rates are likely to stay low giving no incentive for those carry trades to come to an end. The problem with this is that currencies often move very quickly when they correct - or change course.
When so many people become involved in Carry trades - this creates the "Fire Exit" syndrome. Briefly, this is when everyone will try and escape their Carry trades at once.
All those slow and hard earned gains of patiently watching the hedge and adjusting positions - can be wiped out, fast.
_1.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/YenContinuestoFallasCarryTradesCarryOn_1164/2007May3%20EURJPY_1.jpg
As Sr. Analyst, and Trader Jerry Furst - Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com every Monday at 7am ESt and Register for His Live coverage of the FOMC announcement May 9th beginning at 13:30 EST .
Click Here to register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=729422f8-3aa1-4b7d-85ef-72befedffd0c
US Dollar Continues Slide as GDP Comes in Weak
Posted on April 27, 2007 at 15:47 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
No Surprise - But Dollar Continues Slide
US GDP came in at 1.3%the low end of expectations - not a surprise as the US Dollar had been sliding since the London open. The initial spike that nailed the Dollar as the news was announced was short lived, tapping out small stops before pausing and then the Euro proceeded to post all time highs 0f 1.3682.
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDollarContinuesSlideasGDPComesinWeak_89B5/2007Apr27%20EUR%20GDP%20Report.jpg
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com - http://www.FX Street.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=9f3ada84-57db-4980-be30-0fb5d84dec4b
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
CPI Data Prompts Drop in AUD-USD
Posted on April 24, 2007 at 4:25 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Almost 100 pip move takes the AUD from .8340 to .8240 as Consumer Price Index comes in weaker than expected. Dollar continues to retrace last weeks losses.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/CPIDataPromptsDropinAUDUSD_13B47/2007Apr24AUDUSD%2030%20Min.jpg
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
US Dollar Falls - Ready For a Bounce?
Posted on April 23, 2007 at 5:11 in Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Last week I was unable to track or trade the markets due to a week of training.
So of course while I was unable to trade the US Dollar sank against almost all currencies and the USD-GBP crossed the $2.00 mark.
The USD-CAD Worth Another Look?
As the Dollar Cad settles into a range on the 30 Minute chart- the Daily chart shows the Loonie at the support line of the downtrend.(Click on charts to enlarge)
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/DollarsFallReadyForaBounce_1462E/2007Apr23USDCAD%2030%20Min_thumb.jpg
Bounce or Break - You Make the Call
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/DollarsFallReadyForaBounce_1462E/2007Apr23USDCAD%20Daily_thumb.jpg
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
Bank of France Plays the Carry Trade?
Posted on April 13, 2007 at 5:36 in Uncategorized by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
Market News International reported today that the Bank of France netted 1.6 Billion Euros selling 105 tonnes of gold last year. The proceeds from the gold sales were invested in currencies which yield more.
The report goes on to say that the central bank governor Christian Noyer said, "We don’t speculate on the price of gold"
Well - France may not speculate on precious metals, but long live the Carry Trade!
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/BankofFrancePlaystheCarryTrade_14C0D/2007Apr12%20eur-jpy%20weekly_thumb.jpg
Click on Chart to Enlarge
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on April 9, 2007 at 22:51 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Waiting on the Bank of Japan to Announce Interest Rate Policy- (Click on Chart to Enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDJPYHoldsSteadyasEuroandPoundFall_ECF8/2007Apr9-USD-JPY%2015Min%20Flat_thumb_1.jpg
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
US Job Market Stays Hot - Fed Stays Put?
Posted on April 6, 2007 at 23:27 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
OK - Non Farm Payrolls posted a strong gain of 180K,
now the question is whether the US economy is as strong as the numbers indicate. If it is then Ben Bernanke and the FOMC will be under pressure to raise rates. This is due to the fact that the strength of employment in the US continues - despite plenty of reasons that the economy should be moderating.
Bottom line,Long term the US Dollar is Under Pressure However - exchange rates will likely stay in the current range until the next FOMC meeting. The one thing that might make the Dollar tank before then is that the IMF is going to release it’s report next week that will likely put pressuring the US Dollar. For now the Easter holiday weekend has arrived and the markets have closed without any major move.
Look to the USD-JPY for clues as to what may happen….
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USJobMarketStaysHotFedStaysPut_F583/2007Apr6-USD-JPY%20Daily%20Tri.jpg
Click on Chart to Enlarge
Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical Analysis at Work. Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
US Dollar Canadian Loonie at Decision Point
Posted on April 5, 2007 at 1:19 in Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
For the past two weeks the Loonie has consolidated nicely between the 25 and 38.2 Fibonacci retracement. Once this range is broken - it will likely determine the next major move - either back to 1.1900 or down to 1.1400. A nice pile of pips from the current level of approximate 1.1600!
(Click on chart to enlarge)
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDollarCanadianatDecisionPoint_10FC9/2007Apr4%20USD-CAD.jpg
Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical Analysis at Work.
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
Yen Carry Traders Question What To Do
Posted on March 30, 2007 at 7:11 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Symmetrical Triangle Highlights - Risk vs Reward
The Dollar edged higher Thursday afterBernanke’s hawkish testimony on Wednesday and the strong US GDP report Thursday. Friday brings the week and the month to a close with more news out of the US scheduled later today.
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/YenCarryTradersQuestionWhatToDo_10AC/2007Mar30%20USD-JPY%20Daily%20Sym%20Triangle%20Carry%20Traders.jpg
(Click to Enlarge Chart)
Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical and Fundamental Analysis at Work.
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
50th Anniversary - EU Flag is Flying!
Posted on March 27, 2007 at 5:48 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
This Chart Says It All
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/50thAnniversaryEUFlagisFlying_14EC5/2007Mar27%20EUR-USD%2050th%20Anniv%20Classic%20Flag_thumb.jpg
Click on Chart to Enlarge
The Dallas News has a great web site dedicated to the European Union
Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical and Fundamental Analysis at Work. Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
Canadian Loonie Falls as Quebec Votes Monday
Posted on March 26, 2007 at 19:47 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Temporary Rise In Dollar During Uncertainty?
The markets hate uncertainty and as Quebeckers go to the polls on Monday. While the USD is atregthening against the CAD for the third day, Bloomberg reports separatists are gaining strength in their quest to preserve what is French.
Polls Say Election is Close Call on French Seperatists
Traders should watch this trading opportunity closely as the Loonie could live up to its name if the national government "Cracks Up"
The Charts show a good entry point for either outcome (Click to Enlarge)
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/CanadianLoonieFallsasQuebecVotesMonday_C1DD/2007Mar26USD-CAD%20Daily%20Election%20Day.jpg
Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical and Fundamental Analysis at Work.
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
USD Under Pressure as Interest Rates Hold Steady
Posted on March 22, 2007 at 7:23 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
Some Analysts see Possible Interest Rate Cut Ahead
Bernanke and company had no surprises - the US equity Markets rallied - but the Currency Markets punished the US Dollar asUSD-GBP tested the 1.9700 range and the EUR-USD pushed above 1.34 briefly.
Fundamentally this should be no surprise - The US Treasury Secretary has stated that a lower dollar is not a bad thing and so we may be poised for testing new lows on the dollar unless a major new dynamic enters the formula.
USD-JPY Shows Symmetrical Triangle After H&S Fails (click on chart)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDUnderPressureasInterestRatesHoldStead_21A5/2007Mar22USDJPYSymTriangle_thumb.jpg
Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical Analysis at Work.
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
Housing Data and FOMC Dominates Calendar
Posted on March 19, 2007 at 5:21 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Last week the focus of the Financial World seemed to concentrate on the Subprime Lending situation in the US. US legislators started warming up their fickle finger of blame, and started pointing it at the Federal Reserve for being too easy with low interest rates. A certain Senator from NY even started talking about a "Rescue Plan" for …. the Banks! Nevermind the little guy that will probably see their life savings washed away due to predatory lending practices.
The Week Ahead
We have a ton of Housing data coming out this week - Monday, Tuesday, and Friday - and the mother of all announcements the FOMC US Interest Rate Announcement with Bernanke and team comes this Wednesday. Even though most analysts believe their will be no increase at this time.
What’s the Fed Supposed to Do?
The arguments for rising rates to stem inflation and lowering rates to prevent the economy from falling into recession will be something to watch for in the text of the announcemnet expected at 2:15pm EST.
Head and Shoulder pattern on the USD-JPY
Well I see a Head and Shoulders Setup on the USD-JPY (Click on the chart to enlarge)
_1.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/HousingDataandFOMCDominatesCalendar_4F8/2007Mar19%20USD-JPY%20HaS%20Setup_thumb_1.jpg
Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of a Head and Shoulder setup.
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
GBP-USD Consolidating Nicely on Daily Chart
Posted on March 15, 2007 at 6:43 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Looking at the Chart below (Click to Enlarge) - We have Classic example of consolidation range on the GBP-USD that spans approx 250 pips. This was defined by the March 5th drop of 267 pips. Price has been in the shadow of that down bar for 8 trading days.
Once Support or resistance is broken, we may fall into the next 250pip bracket higher or lower.
Support at approx 1.9185 if broken could test lows below 1.900 - resistance at 1.9440, if broken could see prices back around 1.9700 - Now that’s a range of 700 pips.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/GBPUSDConsolidatingNicelyonDailyChart_1835/2007Mar15%20GBP-USD%20Shadow%20of%20the%20Candle.jpg
Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of a consolidation range.
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
Print Your Statements - This is Not a Drill
Posted on March 12, 2007 at 5:14 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst2 Comments »
Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?
The US Congress may have set the stage for a mini "Y2K" type disaster as most companies have been caught off guard as to the severity that a one hour change in Daylight Savings Time may cause. Programmers and High Tech workers were working feverishly over the weekend to insure that there would be no problems. Many computers will be off by one hour tomorrow morning setting the stage for unforeseen "issues" and "challenges" for traders, programmers and anyone else depending on technology!
If it is not broke, don’t fix it - To Err is Human, But to Really Screw Up…..
As a former Sr. Analyst for IBM and consultant and trainer to fortune 100 companies like Office Depot, Sports Authority - I know first hand the tedious work that must be done to fix this problem. The irony is that it is the tinkering with the software that may cause a bigger problem than the problem itself! It is the proverbial opening of the can of worms…. Hopefully not Pandora’s Box!
Do You Have A Backup Plan?
As a computer geek turned trader - I bring a lot of left and right brain activity to this Blog. In a Nut Shell - Print Your Statements on a regular basis along with storing your backups on a portable external backup drive - You may thank me for this advice when you have a "red marble" day. (my email address is below :>)
The Long Term Charts Look Dangerous!
Midnight has just passed on the east coast and so far all is quiet on the charts. But as Bloomberg and CNBC drone on about Alan Greenspan speaking this week and the inverted yield curve. I am looking at Inverted Head and Shoulders and Triangle Patterns ready to break!
Chart 1 shows The EUR-USD Monthly Chart Looks Extremely Dangerous with an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern ready to Crack! I don’t dare print the price target if this pattern completes! (Click to Enlarge Chart)
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/PrintYourStatementsThisisNotaDrill_371/2007Mar11EUR-USD%20Monthly%20Inverse%20HS.jpg
Chart 2 shows The EUR-GBP has a Triangle Pattern on the Weekly Chart that looks ominous as well. (Click to Enlarge Chart)
.jpg]http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/PrintYourStatementsThisisNotaDrill_371/2007Mar11EUR-GBP%20Weekly%20Triangle.jpg
Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live webcasts on FX Street.com
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on March 5, 2007 at 15:48 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
A Few weeks after the G7 stated that they “support the orderly adjustment of global imbalances” The Yen for the Yen is quiet obvious. I had been commenting for a few weeks to people how all the Carry Traders were bound to eventually run for the exits once the pain and the stops began to get triggered.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/RegressiontotheMeanTheYenforYen_89FF/2007Mar05%20GBP-JPY%2015%20min%20Stair%20Step%20Down.jpg
GBP-JPY - Classic Stair Step Pattern on 15 Minute Chart (Click to Enlarge)
Who is Jerry Furst? President of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
Volatility - You’ve Gotta Love It!
Posted on March 2, 2007 at 6:22 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Greenspan Speaks Again! - (Click on Chart)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/VolatilityYouveGottaLoveIt_544/2007Mar01%20-%20INDU%20-%20Greenspan%20Speaks%20Again.jpg
Can you guess the Moving Average?
I am amazed at how many “pundits” are blaming Alan Greenspan for the recent market correction. It’s like giving Bill Clinton credit for inflating the tech bubble of the late 1990’s (as he was taking care of business in the oval office and Air Force One!) Well wait, he did hire the other “Al Green” that created the internet that created the boom before the bust, before Y2K.
Spouting Blamevs. Taking Responsibility
A sure sign of a “rookie” is when they “blame” someone else for their bad trading. Whether it’s the “Market Makers”, the Dealing Desk, China, the Carry Trade, the Housing Market, Program Trading, let a lone a single person “Greenspan”.Rumor has it he shops at the supermarket in Boca Raton not far from my home. I’d love to have a moment to ask him what it’s like to have such power! But Seriously - It’s Amusing (is that an oxymoron) to see the parade of “pundits” as they point the finger of blame on a long awaited and anticipated retracement.
And then there are the “Successful Veterans” - calm, cautious, and careful - as they see opportunity in the volatility.They certainly do not see fear - except in the eyes of their victims being interviewed by Maria. I have to admit, it is entertaining.
I know of a Veteran trader in the futures markets, he made over 400 Dow eMini points Tuesday - “A New Personal Best” As the equity markets finally took a long overdue and expected retracement - I do not hear him thanking Alan Greenspan.
Stolen Picasso Found (Click on Image )
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/VolatilityYouveGottaLoveIt_544/Stolen%20Picasso%20Found.jpg It’s a Picasso!- Happy Trading!
I’m taking the rest of the week and next week off with my trades on auto pilot! However, G-d (and FX Street) willing - I will be broadcasting my“1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” webinar here on FX Street - Monday at 7am EST - Be sure to tune in…Register Here - Wait - I’m not on the line up next week….
Traders - Remember to have some fun this weekend!
Who is Jerry Furst? President of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
9am - Yen Breaking Down - China to Blame?
Posted on February 27, 2007 at 16:20 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Something Happening Here, What it is - Not Exactly Clear
The Chinese stock market in Shanghai had its largest loss in over 10 years, losing almost 10% of value. Is this an excuse to exit the Carry Trade?
GBP-YEN is testing Key Trend Line Support and a big 61.8% retracement
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/9amYenBreakingDownChinatoBlame_9152/2007Feb27%20GBPJPY%20chart1%204hr%20breaking%20down_thumb.jpg
Or is there something else happening….
Fear on Bloomberg - As More News Comes In
A parade of panicked traders and Bears has been spotted… As the US Equity Markets were preparing to open - Is this a contrary indicator… or something more indicative to take note of?
Fear abounds as phrases like - Bad day ahead, they are running scared, sellloff, “So called Goldie-Locks market”, weakness, is this fundamental, exploiting emotions! My My…. they are talking about “Behavioral Finance!”
US Durable Goods fell 7.8% posting the worst results in almost two years! This began driving the US Dollar lower, Followed by better than expected Existing Home sales Rising 3%. Consumer Confidence also surprised to the upside…
What’s a Trader to do? - Trade or get out of the way…
Tomorrow the US GDP Report - 1st on FX Webinar
Tune in to the live webinar coverage of Wednesday’sUS GDP Report on FX Street - register here
Mr. Furst is Founder of Investors Education Network - A mentor and trading coach to select clients. Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st (at) ienweb (dot) com or visit www.Investors-Education-Network.com
Special Webcast - Wed Feb 28 8am EST
Posted on February 25, 2007 at 21:04 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Watch Live Coverage of the US GDP Report
This Wed String at 8:00am EST February 28
Sponsored by Investors Education Network on FX Street.com The US GDP report is closely watched as it tells institutions, governments, investors, and traders about the overall health of the US Economy. The release of this important economic indicator is likely to cause a temporary spike in volatility. [*]8:00 AM (EST) - Before: What makes this scheduled event so important[*]8:30 AM (EST) - During: Watch the markets react with volatility spiking charts in all markets![*]9:00AM (EST) - After: What Happened and What to Expect Next!———> To Register for the special US GDP Webinar: www.fxstreet.com%2Flive%2Fsessions%2Fsession.aspx%3Fid%3Dfc623772-0f93-418b-9732-b679d00e5221]Click Here to Register or copy and paste this link into your browser: http://tinyurl.com/2lncnn
Reminder - Register for “The Week Ahead” Weekly Webinar Every Monday at 7am EST Live on FX Street.com
AUD and CAD Rally While Yen Continues to Fall
Posted on February 21, 2007 at 22:00 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Is it Real or is it the Carry Trade?
While everyone is talking about the BoJ raising a measly .25 to a whopping .5% the USD, GBP, and EUR seem to be enjoying continued strength against the Yen - but is it real or is it the Carry Trade? Eventually the Yen will correct.
Looking at the broader landscape the AUD-USD and CAD-USD look interesting. It could be a reason to look at Gold again…. but for now let’s look at the charts.
The USD-CAD is continuing it’s fall (click on Chart 1)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/AUDandCADRallyWhileUSDollarRalliesElsewh_E0FF/2007Feb21-chart1%20USD-CAD%20Continues%20fall_thumb_2.jpg
the AUD-USD has broken two trend lines to the upside (Click on chart 2)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/AUDandCADRallyWhileUSDollarRalliesElsewh_E0FF/2007Feb21-chart2%20AUD-USD%202%20Trend%20Line%20Break_thumb_2.jpg
FYI - Just hearing a report that US Equity Margin Debt is breaking above 2000 tech bubble levels…
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor. Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report - Click to register
Holiday - What Holiday - Pound on the Move!
Posted on February 19, 2007 at 18:33 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Well once again - the fact that the US Gov’t call it a Holiday may mean that the banks are closed - But Trading in the currencies goes on!
The Pound is tearing up (and down) the charts! (click to Enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/HolidayWhatHolidayPoundontheMove_B06E/2007Feb19%20USD-GBP%2015%20min-%20Holliday.jpg
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/HolidayWhatHolidayPoundontheMove_B06E/2007Feb19%20USD-GBP%20Daily%20-%20Holliday.jpg
FOMC: Data Dependant with Transparency
Posted on February 16, 2007 at 22:17 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
I like the charts….
Last weekends G7 meeting seems so far away now. Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress is done. Looks like the currencies are on the move. The Yen and Sterling is weakening, China is tightening, the Loonie looks bright… what’s a trader to do?
Look at Chart 1 - Is The Yen Finding Support- or Breaking the Trendline?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/FOMCDataDependantwithTransparency_E503/2007Feb%2016%20JPY%20Breking%20Trend%20or%20Finding%20Support%20-%20Daily.jpg
Look at Chart 2 - Is this a buying opportunity for the Sterling?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/FOMCDataDependantwithTransparency_E503/2007Feb%2016%20GBP%20Trending-%20Consolidadtion%20-%20Daily.jpg
Look at Chart 3 - The Loonie is building more strength against the USD
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/FOMCDataDependantwithTransparency_E503/2007Feb16-chart1%20USD-CADTrend%20Line%20Break%20ke%20on%20Close.jpg
Transparency Abounds - Interest Rate Watch, BoE, FOMC
Although sometimes it’s what not is said that can be most important - the days of the Fed being vague on future interest rate policy may be over - for now…It appears that the Fed is “Data Dependant with Transparency”
The following seems to be the current consensus for Interest Rates:
BoE - Raises rates .25 - .5
ECB - Raises rates .5 - 1.0
BoJ - Raises at the most 1.0
FOMC: Holds Steady - but “Data Dependant”
If you agree with the aboveAdd to that the widening gap between the US Trade deficit and the Capital inflows - then the pressure on the US Dollar is on.
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report Click to register
USD Breaking Up Against the Loonie
Posted on February 14, 2007 at 6:04 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
A Not So Happy Valentines Day for Long Time USD-CAD pair
While the data released on Tuesday Feb 13th, 2007 shows that the US Trade Deficit continues to grow, Canada - the neighbor to the north, posted a larger surplus showing strong growth in both exports and imports.
Could this be the beginning of the end for the long time relationship of US Dollar strength against the Canadian Dollar. Often joked about in the past, The Looniewas often tossed aside like a rag doll and the butt of many jokes.
Trend Line and 50 SMA Break
The widening disparity in Trade Balance reports quickly showed up on the charts as the Loonie broke a strong uptrend that began back in Sept 2006. Winter is temporarily hibernating global warming advocates as Heating Oil comes back in demand and puts value back into the “Resource Currencies” such as Canada and AustraliaChart one shows how the USD-CAD Daily 50 SMA has been a decent indicator that has proven to hold price quite well. That line and the solid up trend has now been violated.(Click on chart to enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDBreakingUpAgainsttheLoonie_E8/2007Feb14chart1USDCADTrendLineBreakk%5B1%5D.jpg
Well, Once upon a time (not that long ago) the term “Made in Japan” was synonymous with an inferior product from a second rate country. Will the Loonie soon be given equal R-E-S-P-E-C-T in the relationship that often counts the most - next to your cheeks and in your wallet!
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report Click to register
Tuesday - Watch GDP and Trade Balance Reports
Posted on February 13, 2007 at 0:02 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Scheduled Volatility Events
Main News for Tuesday Feb 12this GDP reports from the Euro zone,GBP Core CPI due at 4:30am EST.
US Trade Balance Report at 8:30am EST. the consensus is that the US trade Gap will widen to -$59.8B.Canada also reports Trade balance at the same time as the US.
Japan reports Trade balance report at the beginning of their session 6:50pm EST Tuesday.Consumer Confidence for Japan is due out at 12 Midnight EST.
The US Dollar has been showing strength against the Majors. This may be an opportunity for dollar bears - but wait for Bernanke’s congressional testimony Wednesday before making any major decisions.
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report Click to register
G7 - Supports "Orderly Adjustment"
Posted on February 12, 2007 at 5:49 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
The G7 Finance Ministers official statement Sunday started off by stating that they “support the orderly adjustment of global imbalances” but did not name pairs! Is it an imbalance of the USD and China, or Euro-Yen.
Tough Talk Directed at China - Not Japan
Most analysts were expecting tough talk on the Yen to put pressure on Tokyo to raise rates. But the G7 had more to say about hedge funds than the Yen. thee was a statement of “exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals.” However, this was directed at especially at “China, it is desirable that their effective exchange rates move so that necessary adjustments will occur.”
Hedge Funds Under Scrutiny
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson released his own statement and stated that although the US wants a free and open price discovery market - Investor protection and financial stability must be maintained.
Friday’s Close on the GBP-USD Spike Marks Resistance
Although Spikes and Gaps are not supposed to occur in FX trading it is interesting to note when they do appear. Sometimes they can provide opportunities or clues as to what to expect. Chart 1 is a composite of over 500 data feeds. As the FX markets were closing on Friday February 9th, 2007 - a 400 pip spike on the GBP-USD took price from the 1.9500 range clear up to approx 1.9900!
This spike is also a double top going back a few weeks to January 23’s high.
Click on Chart One for a better view.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/G7SupportsOrderlyAdjustment_14EFF/2007Feb12-chart1%20GBP-USD%20Spike%20on%20Close_1.jpg
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator and mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report Click to register
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on March 5, 2007 at 15:48 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
A Few weeks after the G7 stated that they “support the orderly adjustment of global imbalances” The Yen for the Yen is quiet obvious. I had been commenting for a few weeks to people how all the Carry Traders were bound to eventually run for the exits once the pain and the stops began to get triggered.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/RegressiontotheMeanTheYenforYen_89FF/2007Mar05%20GBP-JPY%2015%20min%20Stair%20Step%20Down.jpg
GBP-JPY - Classic Stair Step Pattern on 15 Minute Chart (Click to Enlarge)
Who is Jerry Furst? President of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
Volatility - You’ve Gotta Love It!
Posted on March 2, 2007 at 6:22 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Greenspan Speaks Again! - (Click on Chart)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/VolatilityYouveGottaLoveIt_544/2007Mar01%20-%20INDU%20-%20Greenspan%20Speaks%20Again.jpg
Can you guess the Moving Average?
I am amazed at how many “pundits” are blaming Alan Greenspan for the recent market correction. It’s like giving Bill Clinton credit for inflating the tech bubble of the late 1990’s (as he was taking care of business in the oval office and Air Force One!) Well wait, he did hire the other “Al Green” that created the internet that created the boom before the bust, before Y2K.
Spouting Blamevs. Taking Responsibility
A sure sign of a “rookie” is when they “blame” someone else for their bad trading. Whether it’s the “Market Makers”, the Dealing Desk, China, the Carry Trade, the Housing Market, Program Trading, let a lone a single person “Greenspan”.Rumor has it he shops at the supermarket in Boca Raton not far from my home. I’d love to have a moment to ask him what it’s like to have such power! But Seriously - It’s Amusing (is that an oxymoron) to see the parade of “pundits” as they point the finger of blame on a long awaited and anticipated retracement.
And then there are the “Successful Veterans” - calm, cautious, and careful - as they see opportunity in the volatility.They certainly do not see fear - except in the eyes of their victims being interviewed by Maria. I have to admit, it is entertaining.
I know of a Veteran trader in the futures markets, he made over 400 Dow eMini points Tuesday - “A New Personal Best” As the equity markets finally took a long overdue and expected retracement - I do not hear him thanking Alan Greenspan.
Stolen Picasso Found (Click on Image )
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/VolatilityYouveGottaLoveIt_544/Stolen%20Picasso%20Found.jpg It’s a Picasso!- Happy Trading!
I’m taking the rest of the week and next week off with my trades on auto pilot! However, G-d (and FX Street) willing - I will be broadcasting my“1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” webinar here on FX Street - Monday at 7am EST - Be sure to tune in…Register Here - Wait - I’m not on the line up next week….
Traders - Remember to have some fun this weekend!
of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Jerry can be reached at
Posted on February 27, 2007 at 16:20 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Something Happening Here, What it is - Not Exactly Clear
The Chinese stock market in Shanghai had its largest loss in over 10 years, losing almost 10% of value. Is this an excuse to exit the Carry Trade?
GBP-YEN is testing Key Trend Line Support and a big 61.8% retracement
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/9amYenBreakingDownChinatoBlame_9152/2007Feb27%20GBPJPY%20chart1%204hr%20breaking%20down_thumb.jpg
Or is there something else happening….
Fear on Bloomberg - As More News Comes In
A parade of panicked traders and Bears has been spotted… As the US Equity Markets were preparing to open - Is this a contrary indicator… or something more indicative to take note of?
Fear abounds as phrases like - Bad day ahead, they are running scared, sellloff, “So called Goldie-Locks market”, weakness, is this fundamental, exploiting emotions! My My…. they are talking about “Behavioral Finance!”
US Durable Goods fell 7.8% posting the worst results in almost two years! This began driving the US Dollar lower, Followed by better than expected Existing Home sales Rising 3%. Consumer Confidence also surprised to the upside…
What’s a Trader to do? - Trade or get out of the way…
Tomorrow the
Posted on February 21, 2007 at 22:00 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Is it Real or is it the Carry Trade?
While everyone is talking about the BoJ raising a measly .25 to a whopping .5% the USD, GBP, and EUR seem to be enjoying continued strength against the Yen - but is it real or is it the Carry Trade? Eventually the Yen will correct.
Looking at the broader landscape the AUD-USD and CAD-USD look interesting. It could be a reason to look at Gold again…. but for now let’s look at the charts.
The USD-CAD is continuing it’s fall (click on Chart 1)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/AUDandCADRallyWhileUSDollarRalliesElsewh_E0FF/2007Feb21-chart1%20USD-CAD%20Continues%20fall_thumb_2.jpg
the AUD-USD has broken two trend lines to the upside (Click on chart 2)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/AUDandCADRallyWhileUSDollarRalliesElsewh_E0FF/2007Feb21-chart2%20AUD-USD%202%20Trend%20Line%20Break_thumb_2.jpg
FYI - Just hearing a report that US Equity Margin Debt is breaking above 2000 tech bubble levels…
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor. Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report - Click to register
Holiday - What Holiday - Pound on the Move!
Posted on February 19, 2007 at 18:33 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Well once again - the fact that the US Gov’t call it a Holiday may mean that the banks are closed - But Trading in the currencies goes on!
The Pound is tearing up (and down) the charts! (click to Enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/HolidayWhatHolidayPoundontheMove_B06E/2007Feb19%20USD-GBP%2015%20min-%20Holliday.jpg
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/HolidayWhatHolidayPoundontheMove_B06E/2007Feb19%20USD-GBP%20Daily%20-%20Holliday.jpg
FOMC: Data Dependant with Transparency
Posted on February 16, 2007 at 22:17 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
I like the charts….
Last weekends G7 meeting seems so far away now. Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress is done. Looks like the currencies are on the move. The Yen and Sterling is weakening, China is tightening, the Loonie looks bright… what’s a trader to do?
Look at Chart 1 - Is The Yen Finding Support- or Breaking the Trendline?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/FOMCDataDependantwithTransparency_E503/2007Feb%2016%20JPY%20Breking%20Trend%20or%20Finding%20Support%20-%20Daily.jpg
Look at Chart 2 - Is this a buying opportunity for the Sterling?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/FOMCDataDependantwithTransparency_E503/2007Feb%2016%20GBP%20Trending-%20Consolidadtion%20-%20Daily.jpg
Look at Chart 3 - The Loonie is building more strength against the USD
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/FOMCDataDependantwithTransparency_E503/2007Feb16-chart1%20USD-CADTrend%20Line%20Break%20ke%20on%20Close.jpg
Transparency Abounds - Interest Rate Watch, BoE, FOMC
Although sometimes it’s what not is said that can be most important - the days of the Fed being vague on future interest rate policy may be over - for now…It appears that the Fed is “Data Dependant with Transparency”
The following seems to be the current consensus for Interest Rates:
BoE - Raises rates .25 - .5
ECB - Raises rates .5 - 1.0
BoJ - Raises at the most 1.0
FOMC: Holds
Posted on February 14, 2007 at 6:04 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
A Not So Happy Valentines Day for Long Time USD-CAD pair
While the data released on Tuesday Feb 13th, 2007 shows that the US Trade Deficit continues to grow, Canada - the neighbor to the north, posted a larger surplus showing strong growth in both exports and imports.
Could this be the beginning of the end for the long time relationship of US Dollar strength against the Canadian Dollar. Often joked about in the past, The Looniewas often tossed aside like a rag doll and the butt of many jokes.
Trend Line and 50 SMA Break
The widening disparity in Trade Balance reports quickly showed up on the charts as the Loonie broke a strong uptrend that began back in Sept 2006. Winter is temporarily hibernating global warming advocates as Heating Oil comes back in demand and puts value back into the “Resource Currencies” such as Canada and AustraliaChart one shows how the USD-CAD Daily 50 SMA has been a decent indicator that has proven to hold price quite well. That line and the solid up trend has now been violated.(Click on chart to enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/USDBreakingUpAgainsttheLoonie_E8/2007Feb14chart1USDCADTrendLineBreakk%5B1%5D.jpg
Well, Once upon a time (not that long ago) the term “Made in Japan” was synonymous with an inferior product from a second rate country. Will the Loonie soon be given equal R-E-S-P-E-C-T in the relationship that often counts the most - next to your cheeks and in your wallet!
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report Click to register
Tuesday - Watch GDP and Trade Balance Reports
Although Spikes and Gaps are not supposed to occur in FX trading it is interesting to note when they do appear. Sometimes they can provide opportunities or clues as to what to expect. Chart 1 is a composite of over 500 data feeds. As the FX markets were closing on Friday February 9th, 2007 - a 400 pip spike on the GBP-USD took price from the 1.9500 range clear up to approx 1.9900!
This spike is also a double top going back a few weeks to January 23’s high.
Click on Chart One for a better view.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/WindowsLiveWriter/G7SupportsOrderlyAdjustment_14EFF/2007Feb12-chart1%20GBP-USD%20Spike%20on%20Close_1.jpg
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator and mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST forClick to register
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on February 6, 2007 at 2:44 in Fundamental Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
Last week saw a very busy calendar of scheduled economic news. GDP, and FOMC Announcements came out on on the same day January 31st, and Friday;s Non-Farm Payroll Report on February 2nd.
When you have three huge reports aligning with planetary like gravity on the markets - will this be a major chart shaking event – or will it result in a just a pebbles ripple in the ocean that makes up the price charts?
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2007feb5chart1_gbpusd_does_news_matter_7.jpg
Click on Chart 1 to see how these three reports affected the GBP-USD during the week of January 31. – despite causing temporary volatility, really had no effect overall in the grand scheme of the chart pattern and direction.
Click on Chart 2 and look on the Four Hour/240 minute chart of the GBP-USD. Can you identify any significant day that sticks out as identifiable as a major change – based on a economic news event? Not really.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2007feb5chart2_gbpusd_does_news_matter_6.jpg
. Depending on the time frame you are trading – especially if you are short term trading – your stops may need to be reevaluated, adjusted, or you may even consider closing and reopening a trade. This is something to consider, to stand aside - when these news events take place. Otherwise, you may just end up hear yourself muttering something about your stops being taken out!
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator and mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report
Click to register
GDP and Consumer Spending = Rate Increase?
Posted on January 31, 2007 at 16:18 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Surprise - Surprise?
The stronger than expected GDP numbers mixed with strong consumer spending, and sentiment, mix in lower oil and you now have this analyst stating that there is a 50-50 chance for a rate hike at today’s FOMC meeting. There are reports out recently that "Consumer Inflation" is running higher than 10%!
If there is a surprise rate hike to 5.5%, it will undoubtedly shock the markets. Almost 100% of analysts (make that 99.9%) believe that the Fed will hold rates steady today. Note: 45 minutes after the Interest rate decision - there may be reason for retracements or acceleration at 3pm EST as the Farm Report is released.
The GBP-USD has been testing levels below 1.95
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(Click on chart to enlarge)
As soon as the FOMC announcement is digested, traders start looking to Fridays Non-Farm Payroll and the upcoming G-7 summit for the next major move.
Want to get a message to the Fed?
It’s about time that the government is held responsible for accurate reports and minimal revisions! US House Democrat Barney Frank has requested an additional day of questioning in February. the traditional two-day hearing of Senate Budget Committee may be extended to the US House where the public is usually represented a tad bit more than by the US Senate elite.
Bloomberg.com reported on 1/16/07 "Rep Frank wants a discussion about interest rates because the Fed’s decisions are a “matter of values.” He’s considering a second day of hearings with “policy experts and people with real-world experience to comment on Bernanke’s testimony before his committee next month, spokesman Steven Adamske said."
Go ahead - now is your chance to get a message to the Fed - US Rep Barney Frank Contact Information: http://www.house.gov/frank/contact.html
Be sure to tune in to the IEN-FX sponsored "1st on Forex - The Week Ahead" webinars every Monday at 12:00 GMT (7am EST) with Jerry Furst. To Register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=152c5efa-528a-4d2e-a1da-b8210f2fe7d0
Good Trading to All - Jerry Furst is "1st on Forex" Sr Analyst IEN-FX
Contact: JerryB1st (@) IENWEB (dot) com
Interest Rate Watch and Wait – Which One?
Posted on January 31, 2007 at 5:57 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
FOMC Decision Coincides with GDP TodayTraders will likely settle in for the all important US interest rate announcement today as the FOMC interest rate decision coincides with GDP and several other economic reports including the NAPM Chicago and Construction Spending Reports prior to the Interest Rate decision. Will the GDP report weigh in on Bernanke and Associates decision?
Hints about what that decision may be came last week as US Fed Official Yellen expressed concern that “inflation is still a threat”,stating that she is being mindful of “output and employment” as well.Does this point to a continuation of the “pause” before the US raises rates again?
The US is showing very strong signs as consumer spending and sentiment is doing just fine. The labor market is getting tighter and Walmart is handing out backpay! All this as Oil is settling in the Mid 50’s in the Mid of Winter. (Note: three years ago the mid 50’s for oild would have been unthinkable and horrifying!)
No Lowering in SightMost analysts now agree that a lowering of US interest rates is highly unlikely. Further there is talk that positions reflecting a decrease have been unwound over the past few weeks. Currencies will likely be relatively flat through mid week barring any unexpected news.
Pound Testing Resistance – Is $2 Next The Sterling tested 1.9915 a 14 year high and calls for the Euro to surpass 1.35 in 2007 are becoming more common. (Click on Chart 1 to Enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2007jan25gbpusdchart1.jpgx
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Good Trading to All - Jerry Furst is "1st on Forex" Sr Analyst IEN-FX
Contact: JerryB1st (@) IENWEB (dot) com
Live Webcast of FOMC Interest Rate on FX Street.com with Sr Analyst - Jerry Furst IEN-FX
Posted on January 29, 2007 at 14:39 in News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
This Wednesday January 31st - Tune in Live
Free Webcast - Watch Live coverage of the FOMC US interest rate announcement as FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke and his FOMC associates get down to the business of setting US interest rate policy. This is the first rate decision of 2007. Although analyst consensus is pointing to keeping rates stable - You never know when there may be a surprise. The BOE did just that recently. Dont be caught off guard!
Coverage Begins at 18:30 GMT - Register now on FX Street.com
This economic event scheduled eight times per year is a fantastic short term trading opportunity. Traders love a setup and volatility - this is one of the best scheduled reports to trade - if you like volatility, and know what you are doing - Tune In and if you want to Trade Along! Live or Demo.
Agenda - Topics: Starting at 1:30 EST 18:39 GMT - Wednesday January 31st
[*]1:30 pm EST (18:30 GMT) - Before: What makes this scheduled event so important[*]2:15 pm EST (19:15 GMT) - During: Watch the markets react with volatility spiking the charts![*]2:30 pm EST (19:30 GMT) - After: What Happened and What to Expect Next!Register Here
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Good Trading to All - Jerry Furst is "1st on Forex" Sr Analyst IEN-FX
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Sterling Shines
Posted on January 23, 2007 at 10:47 in Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
The GBP Sterling is testing Resistance slicing through 1.98 and challenging the 1.99 level. Price is likely to take a break around 1.9850. (Click on Chart to Enlarge)
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2007jan23gbpusd.jpg
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The Euro has fallen through support to a 4 Year Low Against the Pound. (Click on Chart to Enlarge)
IEN-FX’s, Sr Analyst Jerry Furst presents live coverage of the FX Markets Every Monday at 7am and new in 20007 the FOMC rate announcements beginning January 31. Live Session starts at 13:30pm EST 18:30 GMT on FX Street.com - Free and Open to the Public - Hotcomm Room limited to 200 people.
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Whats Up with Oil Going Down?
Posted on January 17, 2007 at 6:16 in Fundamental Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
It is often said that money makes the world go round… but it could be argued that it is really oil that spins the wheels and lubricates the gears of our current day.
Oil is testing new 18 month lows and testing lower - - Where will it stabilize at? Have the fundamentals changed.There has been talk that the Euro will be replacing the US Dollar as the currency vehicle for oil transactions.
This has effects on all aspects of world economies. Oil first broke the $50 level in Sept of 2004 peaking in the summer of 2006 around $80! Resulting in the price of gas in the
US
going promptly from went $1.50 a gallon to over $3.00. The past knee jerk reactions of high prices at the gas pump do not seem to be realized in the reverse as prices are staying stable at an average of $2.50.
The Feds Dilemma and Conundrum
Posted on January 9, 2007 at 4:38 in Fundamental Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
So What Do You Thik The Fed is Going to Do?
Friday morning, as the red hot NFP report was cooling, www.MarketNews.com was reporting that Boston Fed President Minehan, a voting member in 2007, made a commented that “a lower dollar… (will help) growth abroad boosting exports.” Minehan also stated that “Inflation is still a concern”. (Could someone please tell me what the US
exports besides jobs, factories, and patents. My contact info is below!)
The Dilemma and Conundrum – Spelled Out in one Paragraph
The above underlines very simply the dilemma from a Fundamental Perspective. One way to describe the current paradox is that:
- If you raise interest rates to head off inflation,
- Then the dollar will strengthen, making US exports more expensive.
- However, the Fed is indicating they would like a “lower dollar”
- A lower US Dollar would mean higher prices for our imports
- Resulting in inflation
So there it is and if you read between the lines, Could that mean no change in FOMC policy until further notice?
The fact that Minehan also mentions that he sees a “bottoming” of the Real Estate market in the US
is interesting, as most market bottoms are highlighted with visible pain to the sector du’jour being squeezed.Living in Florida
, I see a lot of oranges and grapefruits hanging low on the lawns and loans of homes with For Sale signs!
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Pounding the Pound with a Triangle Pattern
Posted on January 5, 2007 at 23:00 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Triangle Patterns that fail….Chart 2 shows that a Triangle pattern can fool, fail, and turn around quite quickly! Failing would have resulted in a continuation of the sideways consolidation range.that began December 6th. That range was defined on the GBP-USD with a support of approx 1.9430 and a high of approx 1.9750. A triangle pattern with a lower slanting resistance line at 1.9726 had been broken and tested January 2 with a high of the range at 1.9750.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2007jan5chart2.jpg
The next day, January 3 saw the enthusiasm for things British promptly fail as the cable fell from a high of 1.9752 and then making a low of 1.9482 – a swift kick in knickers down of over 270 pips!. This move also shattered the Triangle’s slanting support line at 1.9570. The sideways range of horizontal support was still intact at approx 1.9470-9430, until Friday’s US NFP that is…
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2007jan5chart3.jpg
Now it gets interesting! Chart 3 shows a Triangle pattern on the GBP-USD, if this pattern plays out completely as indicated by the green arrows, then a potential target of the GBP-USD would be approximately 1.9120. That’s another 170 pips or so down for the Pound.
Support and Resistance
Resistance Retracements seem to be at approx: 1.935, 1.938, and 1.943, Support looks to be at approximately: 1.9255, 1.9160, and then the completion target of 1.9120. Note: These numbers are not trade recommendations.
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Trading at Sea - Internet Options on the Go!
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on November 29, 2006 at 7:38 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Intervention in the Rear View Mirror?
The major currencies are breaking one resistance level after another against the Dollar. Treasury Secretary Paulson has made it clear that free markets should dictate the Dollars value. But will the major players allow a free fall? Some central banks may begin to feel pressure to intervene. On the other hand, the long trading range that has just been broken November 25th may have already allowed for the proper distributions to have taken place.
Up,Up and Away?
A common trait of currencies once breaking out of a range is that they will quickly reach altitudes that once reached almost appear to be preset. Since nothing trades in a straight line, this presents a trader with the option of using the trading strategy of “Buying on the Dips”.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2006nov28gbpusdbuying_the_dips_1.jpg
GBP-USD Heading for 1.9800?
A potential price target of 1.9700-1.9800 for the GBP-USD. As an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that was triggered late last week continues to head in that direction. .
Fed Chairman Postures for a Pause
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave an extensive report of the US economy Tuesday afternoon at the Italian American club in New York and stated that the FOMC is prepared to act “if developments warrant” and speaks of risks being to both the upside and the downside. But is more concerned about the upside risks. Bernanke is also scheduled to speak Friday at. Other Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week right up through Friday evening It is apparent that there is debate within the FOMC for lowering and raising rates.
The December 12th FOMC announcement will be coming at a time as the US Dollar is under extreme pressure against all currencies.The likelihood of keeping rates steady in December are growing, as the relatively new Fed Chairman has begun to show a past preference for a “wait and see”, and do no harm approach. Also coming over the news wires - Ex fed Chairman Greenspan was speaking Tuesday at an Investment conference and stated that he was not concerned about a falling US dollar.
Good Trading to All - Jerry Furst for "1st on Forex" and www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com
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FX Markets Know No Holidays!
Posted on November 24, 2006 at 19:07 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst2 Comments »
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2006nov24_gbpusd_inverse_hs_in_play_2.jpg
Inverse Head and Shoulders on GBP-USD is in play
The GBP-USD (chart 1) has quickly completed the right shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that may see the Pound reach 1.9800. This pattern was also the fulfillment of a larger “Broadening Formation” or “Reverse Triangle” that goes back to Early August 2006.
Make a Note in Your Trading Log
Although it is important to note that the US markets are trading in very light and “Low-Volume” or “Low-Participation” - that is what we are expected to think. Make a note in your trading logs: The Currency Markets Do Not Take Holidays! While I hear the pundits being surprised at the recent dollar weakness, and that there is low volume - this is exactly the time that traders must be very aware of opportunities - or go flat. Read the blog posted on November 21st.
Hi Rezo,
Thank you for your question. Allow me to elaborate - This is a "potential " Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. It is not yet confirmed. You shoudl be able to see the "potential" slanting neck line drawn is clearly visible at R2 (approx 1.9230-1.9270).
R1 is what I labeled the "Decision Point" meaning price will decide whether this will or will not become an Inverse Head and Shoulders. Notice I draw an arrow that bounces down off this resiitance point (R1) If that happens, then this is a failed pattern that was setting up. (Reviewing this for you I noticed that the arrow for this H&S failure should have been drawn from R2 - not R1.)
The other possibility is where I have drawn another arrow that continues through R1 and R2 all the way to a H&S Completeion point at approx 1.9800.This would be the maximum potential of the Inverse Head and Shoulders patern.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2006nov20_gbpusd_chart4_inverse_hs2.jpg
Time will tell the accuracy of this potential pattern and analysis. Interpreting the right edge of the chart is a bit more challenging than going back and showing you what has already come to be. I encourage all my readers to send me thier "right edge" analysis - as that is the market!
You can besure I will discuss this chart during Mondays 12:00 GMT Free Webinar on FX Street - Feel free to log in and ask me your questions live!
You must pre-register ahead of time by clicking on this link: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=152c5efa-528a-4d2e-a1da-b8210f2fe7d0
Good Trading to all - Jerry Furst for "1st on Forex"
Holiday Season Begins - Beware
Posted on November 21, 2006 at 7:14 in Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
This Thursday marks the beginning of the holiday season between Thanksgiving and New Year’s. This is expected to be a quiet week.Institutional traders in the United States will most likely be taking off early Wednesday, and not returning until Monday, leaving the markets in a low-volume situation. Veteran traders know that they must be on guard for wild fluctuations during this low-volume season.Beware - The recent range bound trading may be tested over the next few days.Inverse Head and Shoulders on GBP-USD?
GBP-USD (chart 1) may be completing the right shoulder of a reverse head and shoulders pattern. This pattern will be in place if resistance is tested at 1.9150. Be prepared at any moment for the Euro and the GBP to slice through resistance against the USD once resistance is approached.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/2006nov20_gbpusd_chart1.jpg
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If R1 is sliced through at 1.9180 and breaks R2 at 1.9277 this Inverse Head and Shoulders wil be in play to the upside and will see completion of the formation approx mid December at 1.9800 .
However, If Price tests R1 and fails, then price could see as low as 1.8575 by mid December. (chart2)
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Again - the Holiday season and its possibility for surprises during low volume may deliver some presents to those who are vigilant.
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Announcing - 1st on Forex Weekly Webinar - Free on FX Street
Posted on November 16, 2006 at 10:07 in News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
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“International Efforts” and “Exchange Rate Regimes”
Posted on November 13, 2006 at 22:48 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
China and It’s Problems - Too Much Money!
While the mass media seems to be concentrating on last Friday’s China’s central-bank governor Zhou’s comments regarding China’s diversification of its FX reserves, the following quote seems to be overlooked: In reference to Balance of Payment problems Zhou stated they, "should be adjusted by keeping the domestic economy in good health, by international efforts and by exchange rate regimes," and should be gradually adjusted.”
A Clear Reference to "Intervention"? This reference to "international efforts" and "exchange rate regimes."Is a clear statement to me that intervention is at work.Not that there’s anything wrong with that — but it’s definitely something to be aware of. Once intervention runs out of steam, it is often followed by large moves that happen quite suddenly.
What Do You Think the Fed is Going To Do? With interest rates rising across the globe.It can be argued that the FOMC will also be raising rates.This Wednesday’s 2 p.m. Eastern Time release of the FOMC minutes from October’s meeting should prove to be worthy of volatility.
Let’s not Ignore the Eurohttp://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/eurusd_2006nov13_weekly_triangle.png
The EUR/USD is continuing in its range, and the consensus is that it will stay that way for the foreseeable future.
However I disagree, and expect that we will test the the bottom of this range at 1.25 and then begin to chart a path higher for the euro and the GBP against the Dollar.
Nice Triangle on the EURUSD Weekly chart.Are you ready for 1.35 or 1.20?
(click for larger view)
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Watch The JPY!Japan releases GDP numbers at the beginning of Tuesday’s Asian session, and the BOJ meets on Wednesday. The yen is clearly undervalued and on the defensive posture. The possibility of the BOJ raising rates is a real possibility that may come sooner than most people think.
US Election Scenarios - Possible Effects On the USD
Posted on November 6, 2006 at 23:38 in News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Election Results Come in Around 8pm EST
Several critical states on the East Coast will begin to have results in the evening. The consensus is that the Democrats will take back the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate as well. These pollsare often wrong and could provide a surprise that could shock the USD to the upside.The highly Democratic and liberal demographics of the North East US will probably be a good heads up for the following…
Scenarios:
1 - Democrats take back the House only: Downward pressure on the USD
2 - Democrats take back the House and the Senate: Extreme downward pressure on the USD
Republican Surprise!
3 - If the Republicans can maintain their control of both houses of government, then the USD should rally.
All of this is based on the fact that the markets disdain uncertainty. If the Democrats get into a position of control, then the policies of US politics will likely distract and derail any policies from moving forward for two years.
An End to The Recent Trading Range?
Elections are always a factor that must be expected to affect the currencies. I predict that we shall now test the upper and lower ranges that have been in place on the "Majors" for the past few months - and then chart a course for a new trend and direction.
Good Trading to All - Jerry Furst for "1st on Forex" and www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com
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Gaps on Forex Charts – They Can Happen!
Posted on October 31, 2006 at 5:36 in Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst6 Comments »
Sunday Afternoon- EST
I usually like to do my beginning of the week analysis on Sunday afternoon’s and occasionally trading opportunities will present themselves! One of these opportunities is a gap that occurs duringSundays Market open.
GAP Defined:A gap occurs when price jumps from one bar to another with a considerable amount of price distance in between the bars.The most likely cause ofgaps is due to a lack of liquidity, volume, and market participants. One of the nice things about Forex trading is that typically you will not see gaps on charts. Disallows the Forex trader to take advantage of all market moves. The only time that this usually happens in the Forex market is when the markets are reopening on Sunday afternoon/evening EST (Monday’s Open)
The Gap Strategy -in a Nutshell is that when you have a gap it will be filled. The opportunity for this strategy occurs more often in the stocks, equity, and futures world due to the factthat those markets open and close on a daily basis with several hours in between. The reason why gaps rarely occur in the Forex world is due to its 24 hour, highly liquid nature. So when a genuine gap is posted on Forex chart.It’s time to take notice.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/gaps_on_forex_charts_opportunity.jpg
There could be legitimate reasons for a gap to occur, such as a geopolitical, economic, or natural disaster type of event that takes place before the institutional traders begin taking their seats again.
Carrying a Trade Over the Weekend - These gaps also highlight the potential risk of carrying a trade through the weekend.In the event that there is a legitimate reason for a gap, price may move hundreds of pips and never come back to fill the gap for quite a long time.Perhaps even months! This can obviously be detrimental to any account. So it is always wise to judge the level of risk before the weekend, and possibly readjust your trade. Try to calculate how wide your stops should be for minor and major gaps. You might even consider closing trade and reopening with a new position on Monday.
Example: Looking at the chart that I have posted – we have a nice gap that occurred Sunday October 29, 2006 on the GBPUSD.Friday’s close was at approximately 1.8975 and Sunday afternoons open was approximately 1.8955 That’s s a gap of about 20 Pip’s!In this example on the three-minute chart, you can see that price coiled very nicely back up to fill the gap.
More importantly, you should notice that Friday’s close had created a resistance level that held for several hours. Price was repelled from the resistance zone twice at approximately 20:00 in the course of six minutes. At 21:30 the gap was filled and then continued up to 8985, which would have allowed for almost 30 pips, if you would have participated in the entire move.
Be Careful: Now don’t just take the trade before you do a little bit of research. Determine if there is a logical reason for the gap. Check the other "Majors"to see if they are all gaping. If they are then check the news quickly to find out what may be the cause. You may want to go with the Gap. if everything basically looks the same as Friday afternoon fundamentally, and there’s no real surprises, then you can probably expect that this gap will be filled within a short/reasonable amount of time.
So that’s a quick lesson for today, as gaps could be a great way to start your week!
Good Trading - Jerry Furst is "1st on Forex"
Tags: Forex, Gaps, geopolitical, Jerry Furst, news, strategies, trading
Trading The News! Post FOMC - Pre Election
Posted on October 26, 2006 at 7:18 in News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
No surprise today as you all know by now that interest rates were kept steady by the FOMC -But have you noticed how the financial talking heads and analysts are starting to resemble their political counterparts. They think they can change policy if they talk about it enough! I bring your attention to how some people with the power of the financial media keep talking about interest rate cuts for the US. I don’t buy it!
Some of the noise coming from where it really matters (the Fed Governors) is indicating that rate hikes are actually more likely.Continuing from my last blog post (see Oct 23and the chart of historical interest rates) - We will likely see 7% interest rates before we see 4%! Now it may take a year to get there. But I have a slew of reasons why raising rates could be in the cards - stay tuned!
Have you ever noticed how there could be a presidential news conference taking place and the TV reporters are actually talk while the president is still speaking! The reporters give us "their commentary" and ask their guests what they think - without even listening to the actual person in charge of policy (the President) or in this case the Fed Governors.The next time you hear talk about lower interest rates ahead for the US I want you to ask yourself this question. " is this a report of facts - or an opinion of a reporter or trader?"
What is the Fed Really Saying? I heard nothing of lowering rates, and in fact there was one vote for raising rates. From the FOMC announcement today " extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on evolution of the outlook"The risks alluded to were, "US economy seems likely to expand and some inflation risks remain" The Fed bases this on the ASSumption of continued lower energy costs. Well I am not assuming anything when it comes to oil or politics these days. As Walter Cronkite would say, "and that’s the way it is!"
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/fomc_2006oct25_gbp_1min.gif
I did have fun trading the GBP-USDfor 7 minutes from 14:13 to 14:20 as I hedged a position just before the announcement and scalped a few pips off both directions - then took 7 pips from 8789 to 8796 (Note: The high of the day was 8799 until 21:00 EST)
The Real Story is now coming up… The US election on November 7th ! This should be good!
Stay Tuned - and Good Trading - Jerry Furst - is "1st on Forex"
All Eyes Are Waiting For…
Posted on October 24, 2006 at 4:08 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Not the FOMC meeting this week - No-The wait is on for the US Election two weeks from this writing. Markets hate uncertainty. Political uncertainty for the US is obviously in the air. So the consolidation on the EURUSD will likely continue until Nov 8th. Until then, Enjoy the Trading Range from 1.2500-1.2900!
But OK… I will play along and admit that I am anxiously awaiting the Wednesday 2:15 EST FOMC announcement. The anticipation of this report tends to bring everything to a standstill. That consolidation alone can be the impetus to cause a nice spike in volatility - or create an excuse for a major move.
http://forex.typepad.com/1st_on_forex/images/interest_rates_historical_chart.gifBut lets look more closely at Interest Rates. Click on the chart for a close up view of where interest rates have been in the past and where we are now. It is generally expected that the FOMC will hold rates steady in October. However - Read me now and believe me later.
Interest Rates for the US will probably be going up… and then up some more!
So Dollar Bears - Beware…
Good Trading - Jerry Furst for "1st on Forex"
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