Posted on September 23, 2008 at 13:50 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Again following yesterday’s post, the pair accomplished the proposed target zone for theintra day movement, and remains well above the 1.8514 level, first support to consider today, followed by the zone around 1.8480/60, 1.8410 and finally 1.8350 not seen for today. Regarding resistances, above 1.8600 the pair will be targeting yesterday’s max at 1.8641that if broken, again could trigger bullish momentum in the pair, first to the zone around 1.8710 and finally close to the 1.8800 level.
Taking a look at bigger charts, and despite the strength of the bullish movement, the zone around 1.8600/50 seems to be the first key level to watch, followed by the very strong 1.8800 mentioned for the intraday, as it also represents the 50% of the last weeks fall measured from 2.0158 to 1.7446. A confirmation above that level, could mean a continuation first to the zone around 1.8950 and finally to 1.9120, the 61.8% of the mentioned rally that should offer quite a rebound to the downside. Like the Eur, the pair has broken yesterday the 38.2% level at 1.8483, major support and remains above it, after testing it earlier today. As long as this level remain unbroken, chances say to the upside. A Daily candle opening under it, will surely mean further falls at least to the zone around 1.8400 and 1.8280. Further falls don’t seem likely at least for this week.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp7-300x225.gif
The Eur/Usd daily and longer term
Posted on September 23, 2008 at 13:10 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
For the shorter term and following yesterday chart, the break above the 200 EMA and the 61.8% gave an impresive rally (not seen for the intraday) to 1.4867 a 4 weeks high for the pair. Right now, prices remains above the 76-3% of the mentioned rally. around 1.4715, first support for today, dollowed by the zone around 1.4650/60 that porved to be strong enough yesterday. A 4 hours candle opening under it, will confirm further falls, as the RSIindicator is showing the pair is quite over bough and momentum seems to be close to a maximun (despite is not yet exhausted) being next targets the zone around 1.4600 and finally 1.4567, the 61.8% level mentioned early. Regarding resistances, form actual zone around 1.4730, only above 1.4762 the pair can recover to the zone around 1.4811, followed by yesterday’s maximum at 1.4867 and finally 1.4905.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eur4-300x225.gif
Regarding longer term charts, please take a look at this daily one: indicators remain clearly bullish, despite we could see some intraday correction, being the zone around 1.4920 the key level to watch: above this last, the bullish rally could easily continue to the zone around 1.4980 first, and if could manage to break above 1.5000, psychological level, next target will be the zone around 1.5210: Notice the weekly Fibonacci levels from the historical maximum to 1.3881 minimum acomplished this month: the daily candle today has confirmed above the 38.2% and remains unable to break down. The 1.5210 target is in fact the 61.8% of the mentioned rally. Anyway, if the pair manages to close the day under 1.4700, we could see that the 38.2% of the weekly level failed to hold, and further falls, first to the zone around 1.4580 and them to 1.4500 are likely for the next term, yet only under the zone around 1.4400 the pair could recovery bearish strengh not seen for this week.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eurd-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Starting a new day
Posted on September 23, 2008 at 10:07 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Are you betting against dollar? Hope so. In Spanish we say something like “to try to cover the sun with one hand” and that’s more or less what I was saying yesterday opening: I was reading news just a few minutes before Asia opens and they were pointing to the same: a $700 billion injection to rescue private institutions from bankruptcy, not only will extend the U.S. deficit and sunk already weak growth prospects, but also represents the 5% of the country GDP, yes you read well 5%. However, it’s not easy to forecast where the market will find the right balance. I will take some time to day, to study longer term charts, and I will be adding the post.
Today we have only one new to take care of:
14:00 GMT USD Paulson, Bernanke Testify on Credit Turmoil at Senate Panel
The Usd/Jpy intraday
Posted on September 22, 2008 at 10:13 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains under pressure, attempting to break lower. with a tough congestion zone between 105.80/90 a continuation under it, will drive the pair to 105.55 another important support that also fall in the 61.8% of the last up leg 103.99/108.02. that level should hold today and offer some rebound. To the upside, resistances will be at 106.25, followed by the zone around 106.45/60 and finally 107.00
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/yen1-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
The Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on September 22, 2008 at 9:44 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has break to the upside early this morning,and seems ready to continue, as long as the pair opens next 4hours candle above the 1.8400 zone. Having a first resistance around today’s maximum at 1.8460/70 zone, next resistance will be around 1.8514 zone, above wich the bullish rally could gain momentum and trigger more interesting rallies first, to 1.8550 zone and finally to 1.8604. Supports, under the mentioned 1.8390/1.8400 zone will be at 1.8311, 1.8276 and finally the zone around 1.8228.
A side note: 4 hours charts are forming king on unusual figure, a rounded floor: a confirmation above 1.8514 zone, seems the figure will be completed, and as it is a continuation figure, the target in the longer term will be around 1.9400.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp6-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
Euro/Usd for today
Posted on September 22, 2008 at 9:21 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Euro/Usd started the week pretty bullish, and looking at daily charts, indicators are suggesting this is only a beginning and the rally should extend along the week. Quoting right now abovethe 61.8% of the Fibonacci rally 1.4900/1.3881, 4 hours charts shown the pair has found a top in this time frame, with indicators a bit exhausted, andafter rebounding in the 200 EMA around 1.4605 a very good dynamic resistance for the pair and of course, first resistance for today; however, a continuation above it, could take the pair to next resistance zone between 1.4650/60, that should hold for today. To the downside, the pair will find supports at 1.4555, followed by the zone around 1.4520, and finally the Fibonacci level mentioned, around 1.4500.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eu3-300x225.gif
Starting the day
Posted on September 22, 2008 at 8:58 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody welcome to another week in forex market! As i was expecting, dollar fell by the end of last Friday’s American session and since Asia opening yesterday, as investors questioned whether a $700 billion U.S. rescue plan to bail out banks will help solve the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression. As I told you, just capital is not enough, meaning the underlying problems in the U.S. banking system haven’t gone away yet, and won’t be unless the goverment change the way of dealing with them. Yet, volatility remains high, and sentiment continues ruling markets,(have you heard LA DONNA E MOBILE from Rigoletto?) so I believe short term trades are better than never this days: don´t forget the Euro zone and the rest of the world face the risk of an economic downturn. Meanwhile oil recovered the 100 dollars a barrrel mark, while gold prices remain stable: don’t forget both comodites play against greenback, so better take a look at them once a while. There will be no fundamental news today to take care of, so enough chat and let’s go to technicals. I’ll be back in a few minutes.
Have a great trading day!
S.O.S (Same old situation)
Posted on September 19, 2008 at 13:46 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve announced its new programs to ease troubled financial markets:extending loans to U.S. banks to help them finance the purchase of asset-backed commercial paper from money market funds that no longer want this debt in their portfolio. Meaning: more capital injections that are surely not a solution but a “time buying” if you know what I mean. The sub prime crisis that started one year ago, needs a solution, do you think capital injections will do something? Meanwhile the recover in oil prices is pushing greenback down despite the U.S. stocks recovery. Volatility continues ruling the market. Don’t get surprised if majors surpass actual week maximums.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy
Majors for today
Posted on September 19, 2008 at 9:31 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is right now @ 1.4200, attempting to break the base of the imminent channel saw yesterday. A 4 hours candle opening under it, will confirm a bearish continuation, with a first support at the congestion zone between 1.4145/60, followed by the zone around 1.4110 and finally the zone around 1.4070. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.4225, followed by 1.4268 and finally the zone around 1.4300.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eur2-300x225.gif
Gbp/Usd falied to break the 61.8% of the Fibonacci mentioned yesterday, and right now is right in the 38.2% of the mentioned rally, where we have also an ascendant trend lineclear in 4 hours charts. A confirmation under 1.7945 could trigger a bearish rally, with next supports at 1.7906 and finally 1.7845. Resistances from actual price, will be the zone around 1.8010, followed by 1.8064 and finally the zone around 1.8105, 50% of the mentioned rally.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp5-300x225.gif
The Usd/Jpy is rising after the stocks rescue, almost covering the gap of the begging of the week. bullish yet quite exhausted in that direction, the pair could continue above today’s maximum, to the zone around 108.16, and even to 108.52 yet not seen for today. Rebounding in the 4 hs 200 EMA, a downside correction will find supports at the tough zone around 107.00, followed by 106.65 and finally the zone around 106.20
Good trades for all!
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy
To the rescue
Posted on September 19, 2008 at 8:52 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, how are you? after hitting a two weeks low against European currencies, market continues highly volatile and greenback is making big progress all across the board, as yesterday The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank said they were taking action to alleviate pressures in the U.S. dollar funding markets; besides,U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had discussed a government plan to fix the troubled financial sector by establishing an entity to handle bad debt, modeled on the Resolution Trust Corporation of the late 80s which was set up to resolve the Savings and Loans crisis. At this point, saying that sentiment is driving the market, sounds like a joke: is clear that major forces are in fact on charge; the dollar fall these last days, on financial turmoil and stocks drop, triggered a bullish rally against it, and seems that authorities don’t want to come back to were they where: expensive currencies, inflation pressures, unemployment, negative readings in both internal and external sales, etc. And by authorities,I mean the rest of the world ones: is clearthat a stronger dollar, (let’s notforget a cheaper oil) will be in a world wide positive perspective. I don’t expect greenback to continue strengthening much further, yet seems to be very close to it’s equilibrium point at least against European currencies, unless until next crisis http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
There will not be more fundamental news today, but some action could be triggered by the U.S. opening 9:30 East Time.
I’ll be back in a few minutes with today’s technicals.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on September 18, 2008 at 9:59 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains under pressure, and chances continue favoring the downside, with a first support zone around 104.00/10 zone, followed by this month minimum at 103.53: any movement under it will mean a downside continuation, with next support @103.20. Only above the 104.90/105.05 zone we could see some upside pressure, first to 105.35 and finally to the tough zone around 105.55.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/jpy1-300x225.gif
Maybe a side note to all the technicals in all pairs: while we can see clearly in the chart indicators pointing to the upside and candles to the downside, and at least in my charts, in 5 minutes we have a new 4 hs candle opening, and surely indicators will turn after this last one price action; besides, and for me, there is not much to discuss about dollar weakness, so, remember to open mind and eyes, and keep a larger view on things.
Good trading for all!
Tags: usdjpy
The Gbp/Usd in the short term
Posted on September 18, 2008 at 9:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Clearly bullish in daily charts, 4 hours one seem a bit exhausted, after the pair rebounds in the 61.8% of the last daily down leg from 18799/1.7446. Quoting right now around 1.8180, there is not much of a definition here: to the downside, first interesting support will be around 1.8130, followed by the zone around 1.8090 and finally 1.8050. Above 1.8220, the pair could continue to today’s maximum, and the Fibonacci @ 1.8264 above which, 1.8315 will be next target.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp4-300x225.gif
Tags: gbpusd
The Eur/Usd for today
Posted on September 18, 2008 at 9:20 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has broken above the 1.4400 and seems ready to continue: having a first resistance zone around 1.4428/35 above this last, the pair has a clearway to next congestion zone around 1.4471; moving in a 4 hours ascendant channel, a confirmation above that last zone, let’s say at 1.4486, the pair could easily continue to 1.4510 zone and finally 1.4558, zone that must break before attempting to test the roof of the channel, @ 1.4675. Supports from here will be the zone around 1.4382, followed by 1.4350 and finally 1.4330.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eur1-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
What now?
Posted on September 18, 2008 at 9:00 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Greenback continues losing ground against major rivals, on deeper worries over the American financial system and overall economy; if you saw yesterday’s gold price action, you can understand why: investors made it run almost an 11%, while U.S. stocks dropped nearly 450 points, the second worst drop in a year, preceded by Tuesday first one. All these factors are just telling us how hurt is the American economy, and that many investors are “regretting” the so fast and furious betting on dollar of the last two months. I surely don’t mean Euro will return to 1,60 or Pound to 2.11, yet a larger correction seems to be under way. Regarding fundamentals for today; the UKRetail Sales published just now has surprised to the upside, helping GBP to hold close to it’s daily maximum against major rivals, despite the general weakness of the currency; in the wills battle, seems GBP is overdoing Dollar for now. For the rest of the day, this are the most relevant news, East Time, in the U.S.:
8:30 Initial Claims 09/13 (Expected 440K Previous 445K)
10:00 Leading Indicators Aug (Expected -0.2% Previous -0.7%)
10:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep (Expected -10.0 Previous -12.7)
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on September 17, 2008 at 11:50 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is giving signs of exhaustion to the upside, after yesterday’s rally, although has an interesting support in the zone around 105.55. A correction could extend to the zone around 105.23 and finally to 104.84, not seen likely today. To the upside, only above 106.03 we could see a continuation in that direction, first to the zone around 106.32 and finally to 106.60/70.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/jpy-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on September 17, 2008 at 11:33 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd looks slightly bullish in 4 hours charts, although divergences with technical indicators, and well contained in last days range; quoting around 1.4220, the pair has a first resistance @ 1.4236 followed by the zone around 1.4280. Above this last, the pair will confirm a bullish continuation at least to the zone @ 1.4330, tops for today. Regarding supports, 1.4178 will be the first to consider, followed by the dynamic one, an ascendant trend line now around 1.4118 that should offer a quick a profitable rebound if reached.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eu2-300x225.gif
As said before, Gbp remains under pressure and bearish in 4 hours charts, probably at the beginning of a descendant channel: only above 1.7895 we could see the pair moving to the upside and attempting to test the roof of the channel @ 1.7960; seems unlikely the price pass above it yet in that case, next target will be at 1.8030, after completing the pullback to the broken line. Supports from here will be the zone around 1.7825, 1.7785 and finally 1.7755.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp3-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd
At the begining
Posted on September 17, 2008 at 11:02 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. The Asian session didn’t change much last view, after FOMC decision: dollar remains under pressure against most rivals, (except Aud and Japanese Yen), but mostly in range, consolidating after the next clear trend leg.Good to notice, Gbp is also in trouble on renewed fears of the health of the U.K.’s largest mortgage lender, HBOS whose shares plummeted, wiping outearlier gains against the dollar. Australian dollar is the third weak currency I can mention, as risk aversion make investors flee away form high yielding currencies. Anyway, for the rest of the day, we have only two news to take care of in the U.S. (detail in east time):
08:30 Building Permits for August (Expected 930K Previous 937K) and Housing Starts (Expected 950K Previous 965K)
10:35 Crude Inventories 09/13 (Previous -5.9)
I’ll be back in a few minutes with the technicals perspectives for today.
After the FOMC
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 19:59 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Finally, the FOMC leaved rates unchanged, and despite some initial spikes, more majors are quite close to were they were previous to the release.In fact there was no signal of further rate cuts anytime soon, and ignoring actual markets turmoil, they stated “The downside risks to growth and the upside risks to inflation are both of significant concern to the Committee”. Seems rate movements are not enough to control actual crisis and authorities had understood so. So what’s next in Forx market? Well to be honest I keep on believing that dollar strength was due to counterparts weakness, so the name of the game will be to bet on the less weak currency (mostly like we vote our government here, not the best one, but the “less worse” http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif ). Anyway, is clear thatthe crisis in the States is very very far form over, while the economic situation in the rest of the world was lately put in doubt, yet remains in much better shape. Both technically and fundamental perspective suggest more dollar loses for the rest of the week.
Previously posted levels are quite valid for today and tomorrow: only under 1.4080 zone we could see the Euro fall, and 1.7785 area for GBP. An exception is my be loved Japanese Yen that actually accomplished perfectly the suggested upside levels, and seems ready for more.
Anyway, the day is almost over. Hope you have enjoy the post, the live coverage, and most of all, took some advantage of the market!
See you tomorrow.
Fed Special Coverage Transcript
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 19:31 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Tags: fed
Before the FOMC
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 17:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Majors remain losing ground after a good and unexpected rebound in the U.S. Stock markets. However, things can change if the FOMC decides to change actual rates (seems unlikely in fact, but you know) anyway, these are the lelels to watch for a break trough in either direction, if rates are in fact changed:
Eur/Usd : Under 1.4105, to 1.4082 first and 1.4065. Above 1.4178, first to 1.4220 zone and then to 1.4249
Gbb/Usd: Under 1.7820 to 1.7786 and then to 1.7755. Above 1.7895 to 1.7925 and then to 1.7970
Usd/Jpy: Under 104.84 to 104.55 and 104.20 area, and above 105.60 to 106.00
I will be covering the FOMC decision live! at Fxstreet.com home page.
See you there!
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 13:13 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Looking at 1 hour charts, the pair is moving in a small one hour descendant channel, and attempting to break to the upside: follow it in 1 hour or 30 minutes charts: a candle opening above it, and a confirmation pullback, could trigger a bullish rally in the next few candles, for at least 25/40 pips.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/1-300x225.gif
Tags: eurusd
Majors for today
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 11:44 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4200, and slightly bearish in 4 hours charts, yet moving in a tight range between 1.4180/1.4280. Above first resistance for today, the zone around 1.4235, the pair will try to test the 1.4282 zone that, if broken could trigger further upside movements denying the bearish view: from there next resistances will be the zone around 1.4330 and any confirmation above, will send the pair finally to the zone around 1.4380/90. A bearish opportunity could be trigger in the zone around 1.4165, that if reached, will mean a downside continuation first, to 1.4120 and finally the zone around 1.4080 that should hold for today.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eur-300x225.gif
The Gbp/Usd is bearish at the moment, with a first support around 1.7780, yet only a confirmation under 1.7747 could signal a continuation to the downside,first to the zone around 1.7675 and finally to 1.7610. Regarding resistances, 1.7860 will be the first to consider, followed by the congestion zone around 1.7900, above which, the pair could turn bullish for the rest of the day, targetting next upside zonea at 1.7944 and finally 1.8010.
The Usd/Jpy remains clearly bearish in bigger charts, and under actual minimum at 103.61, next support will be the zone around 103.38, followed by the zone around 103.05 and finally 102.60 where if reached, the pair should offer some interesting bullish rebound. To the upside, 104.10 104.45 and 104,90 will be the resistances to consider.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy
Starting the day
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 11:02 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. After a highly volatile day like yesterday, one was expecting that the bunch on economic reports published early this morning in Europe and England was going to keep the market rolling, yet leaving a side Japanese Yen, majors seem to have found a comfortable place to wait for the next trigger, not sure if the FOMC policy statement could be it, unless they announce a rate change, and despite rumors and banking turmoil, seems unlikely at this moment.Meanwhile, oil continue falling quoting around 92 dollars a barrel, giving some reliefon inflationary pressures.
A side note for Japanese yen: the currency continues appreciating as low yielding currencies are favoured in times of market turmoils, and as Swiss Franc both majors have huge gaps from Sunday opening, that sooner or later should be covered yes, but don´t rush into them: both form the fundamental and the technical perspective, things are set to a dollar downside movement at least for this week.
These are the most relevant news East Time in the U.S.:
08:30 Core CPI Aug (Expected 0.2% Previous 0.3%)
08:30 CPI Aug (Expected 0.0$ Previous 0.8%)
09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jul (Expected $55.0B Previous $53.4B)
14:15 FOMC Policy Statement
Follow the oil
Posted on September 15, 2008 at 11:50 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Crude finally breaks the 100 U$ a barrel, and quotes right now around 97 U$, pushing dollar higher. Also market is in the mode selling the rumor and buying the news, as rumors of a rate cut in the Euro zone are spreading like powder. Watch your indicators, yes, but keep and eye on commodities!
Majors for today
Posted on September 15, 2008 at 11:27 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4190, after heavily rebound in the 61.8% Fibonacci daily rally 1.4811/1.3881, and despite the maximum achieved in Asian session, the pair remains bearish in the medium term: under 1.4155, next support will be the zone around 1.4100/10, 23.6% of the mentioned rally, that should hold for today. A confirmation under this last will trigger more bearish momentum, sending the pair first to the zone around 1.4075 and finally, to 1.4040. Resistances from here will be the 1.4230 zone, followed by 1.4265.
Gbp/Usd is quoting around 1.7860, where we can also see an important Fibonacci level, the 38.2% of the last up leg from 1.7447 to 1.8130. If the pair manages to continue down, and seems quite probably, next supports will be at the zone around 1.7805, followed by 1.7754 and finally the zone around 1.7710, 61.8% of the mentioned rally. Resistances from here will be at 1.7916, 1.7991 and finally the zone around 1.8040.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp2-300x225.gif
Finally Usd/Jpy is bearish in 4 hours charts, although indicators are exhausted and seem ready for a upside correction: above 105.55, first resistance for today, the pair could run first to 105.90 zone and finally to 106.27. Under 105.07, the pair will regain bearish strength and continue to the minimum zone around 104.50 and finally to 104.24.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy
Another volatile week ahead
Posted on September 15, 2008 at 9:51 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you are fine. The possible bankrupt of one of the biggest American banking institution, Lehman Brothers, known last Sunday, triggered a dollar sell all across the board, as market sentiment shifted against greenback, and in an eye blink market is discounting a short term rate cut instead of a rise, ahead of tomorrow’s FED meeting. Indeed, volatility is keeping market interesting these last two or three weeks, and seems it will continue this way.
In a side note, and despite turmoils, bankrupts or rates, majors have respected the technical longer term points postead last Trhusday particularly Euro and Pound, giving very good bounces from the zones suggested. Let’s see if the longer term view has changed: i will made both, long and short term posts in afew minutes.
These are the most relevant news, East Time, for the U.S.:
08:30 NY Empire State Index September (Expected 1.5 Previous 2.8)
09:15 Capacity Utilization August (Expected 79.6% Previous 79.8%)
09:15 Industrial Production August (Expected -0.3% Previous 0.2%)
Have a great trading day!
Majors for today
Posted on September 12, 2008 at 11:33 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is tending higher in 4 hours charts, and indicators are pointing to a probable continuation of this movement. Above today’s maximum, around 1.4130, the pair could easily continue first to the zone around 1.4173 and finally to 1.4205 zone, a daily descendant trend line that should contain the pair today. Under 1.4089, next supports will be at 1.4045 and the zone around 1.4010.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eu1-300x225.gif
Regarding Gbp/Usd, the pair is also slightly bullish, after breaking a descendant 4 hours charts and with momentum giving bullish signals in 4 hours charts: yet only above 1.7745/60 zone, the upside trend will be confirmed, with next resistances at 1.7786, and the zone around 1.7840. Supports from actual price will be 1.7648 (pull back to the broken line) that if passed, will deny the bullish continuation, driving the pair first to 1.7615 and finally the zone around 1.7583.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gb-300x225.gif
Finally the Usd/Jpy remains under bearish pressure: quoting around 107.20, the pair has a first support between 106.95/107.03, a tough congestion zone that should be broken to see further continuation, to next supports zones around 106.60 and 106.20. Resistances from here will be at 107.50 and finally like yesterday, 107.84, not seen likely for today.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy
Starting a new day
Posted on September 12, 2008 at 11:19 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you arefine. Majors had finally seem to reached a bottom yesterday, and started a shy correction against greenback, taking notice of both technical and fundamental issues: in one hand, news in the U.S. shown a much wider deficit than expected, and on the other, and particularly Euro, reached a key level zone, that offer the expected rebound. Today, we will have a busy American session, and again technical and fundamentally, things are set to continue against greenback, at least in the short term.
These are the most relevant news for today in the U.S., East Time:
08:30 PPI for August (Expected -0.5% Previous 1.2%) and Core PPI (Expected 0.2% Previous 0.7%)
08:30 Retail Sales for August (Expected 0.2% Previous -0.1%) and Retail Sales ex-auto (Expected -0.2% Previous 0.4%)
10:00 Business Inventories for July (Expected 0.5% Previous 0.7%)
10:00 Michigan Sentiment - Prel. For September (Expected 64.0 previous 63.0)
I will be back in a few minutes with the technical points for today.
Have a great trading day!
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on September 11, 2008 at 10:51 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Japanese yen remains strong and slightly bearish in 4 hours chars, despite indicators are quite flat without suggesting further continuation. The pair will find a first support in the zone around 106.64 under which the bearish rally could gain momentum, sending the pair to the zone around 106.20, and finally for today, 105.75. Above 107.10, the pair will find next resistance around 107.46 the projection of a 4 hours descendant trend line, that if broken will deny previous bearish view and send the pair to the zone around 107.84, not seen for today.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/yen-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
Gbp/Usd long and short term
Posted on September 11, 2008 at 10:44 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is also close to a long term ascendant trend line, that also converges with the monthly 200 EMA around 1.7305/30. That seems to be the target zone for this huge fall, and a probable rebound zone if reached these days. Again an important confirmation should be needed to consider it broken, and in that case, the target zone will be around 1.6820.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp-mo-300x225.gif
Looking at smaller charts, the pairs is quite over sold, yet still bearish: under 1.7445, next support will be the zone around 1.7410 and finally 1.7362. Only above 1.7510 we could see some recovery in the pair, first to the zone around 1.7545/60 and finally to 1.7620.
Tags: gbpusd
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Posted on September 11, 2008 at 10:30 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Attached, you will find a monthly Eur/Usd chart, showing an ascendant trend line coming from 0.8562, date February 2002. The pair has rebounded around 9 times in such line, and as we know, the more times price rebound in a trend line, the stronger it is, but at the same time, if the line gets broken then, the stronger will the continuation movement, in this case, to the downside. The line for this September is around 1.3850, so a confirmation under it, meaning a weakly opening, or better, October starting under it, will mean further long term fall in the pair. Usually this lines offer a quite interesting rebound on the first attempt a pair make to break them so, be aware that the zone around 1.3850 should offer enough support for a bullish rebound. On the contrary, if it gets broken, the 1.33.14 zone, 61.8% Fibonacci rally 1.1640/1.6038 will be exposed.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eur-mo-300x225.gif
For today, under actual minimum at 1.3893, the pair will find it’s next support at the mentioned zone at 1.3850, followed finally by 1.3826 (Remember such long term line, needs a bigger candle opening confirmation to be consider broken). Resistances fron actual price will be at 1.3946, followed by 1.3990 and finally the zone aroudn 1.4040.
Starting a new day
Posted on September 11, 2008 at 10:10 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody how are you? Hope fine and betting on American dollar. Risk aversion, funny words I read in news to justify the fall in Euro and Pound against greenback, that continues getting stronger against major rivals, except the Japanese Yen. The fact is that were the same exact words used to justify one year ago rise. And is not the only fact: Oil rose almost to 150 $ a barrel, while Gold almost reach 1000 $, again as risk aversion (against dollar, and the American recession on credit crunch) pushing the rest of the world economies to the downside. For months macroeconomic news were showing negative readings, yet markets ignored them and continued pushing everything higher; well obviously that has ended and finally the side effects of such movements arebeing reflected in majors: the rest of the world economies are also in trouble and there was no way to justify the continue rise on them. Well now seems things are just the same, yet inverted; for now, things continue favoring a rise in greenback, and watching monthly charts, the two European majors are close to define whether things will continue this way. I will add it in next technical post.
These are the most relevant news for today in the U.S., East Time:
08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Aug (Previous 0.8%) and Import Prices ex-oil Aug (Previous 0.9%)
08:30 Initial Claims 09/06 (Expected 440K Previous 444k)
08:30 Trade Balance for July (Expected - 58.0B Previous -$56.8B)
14:00 Treasury Budget for August
Other Majors for today
Posted on September 10, 2008 at 10:27 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Gbp/Usd also remains bearish, helped by ( what a new) a worse than expected reading in the Trade Balance. Adressing right now to 1.7531, under that first support the pair could easily continue first, to the zone around 1.7496and finally yesterday’s minimum around 1.7467. any confirmation under that point could trigger a bearish rally to the zone around 1.7400. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.7599, pullback to the 4 hours ascendant trend line broken with this openning, followed by the zone around 1.7630/40 and finally 1.7683.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp1-300x225.gif
The usd/Jpy also remains bearish, yet with charts suggesting a probable upside correction in the next hours: above 107.58, the pair will find it’’s next resistance aroudn 107.87, followed by the zone between 108.00/15, seems hard for see the pair above that point today. To the downside, 107.00 is a tough congestion zone that should be broken to give the pair bearish momentum, first to the zone aroudn 106.67 and finally 106.25.
Eur/Usd for Today
Posted on September 10, 2008 at 10:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/eu-300x225.gif
The Eur/Usd remains bearish in 4 hours charts, and just break to down side, acontinuation triangle: if the pair manages to break under 1.4088, in the next minutes, we could see it coming back down to the zone around 1.4050 and finally 1.4010, objetive for today.Only above 1.4136, the pair could return to the maximum zone around 1.4170, yet not seen further for today.
Starting the day
Posted on September 10, 2008 at 10:08 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you are fine. Market remainds me the movement that started more than one year ago, when dollar fell was unstopable, firmly falling all across the board, following trend and “ignoring” in some way, fundamental data againts it: well, that’s exactly what’s going on these days: any bad new for the american dollar, it’s just an halt in the run, and maybe a short correction, that only gives further impulse to actual trend. Anyway, as it happens in turmoil times, gold and oil sinking prices also are rulling the markets, so it could be a good idea to pay extra attention to both of them these days.
For the rest of the day, we hace only one minor report in the U.S., The Crude Inventories at 10:00 a.m. East time.
I’ll be back in a few minutes with a technical perspective for today.
Have a great trading day!
Non stop
Posted on September 8, 2008 at 11:39 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The dollar positive rally continues without finding a technical or fundamental base: despite the bad readings in the U.S. employment conditions last Friday and the huge gaps of Asia against it, as the US government decided to inject to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest troubled mortgage companies, as much capital as needed to keep them solvent; that’s what actually is driven the Japanese yen down, as after this Sunday announcement, the US Stocks are expect to open higher.
The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4220, and remains bearish in bigger charts: under 1,4190 the pair will return quickly to today’s minimum at 1.4165. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.4260 that if broken, could send the pair to 1.4293 and finally the zone around 1.4325.
The Gbp/Usd also remains bearish in 4 hours charts, with a first support around 1.7605: that once broken could drive the pair first, to the zone around 1.7570 and finally to 1.7540. Only above 1.7654 we could see some bullish movements, first to the zone around 1.7685 and finally 1.7725.
The Usd/Jpy is forming a probable continuation figure, a flag in 4 hours charts: above 108.92, the pair will return to the zone around 109.10 that if broken could trigger a bullish rally to the key zone around 109.55. Only under the congestion zone around 108.20, the pair could cover last night gap, and return first to 107.95 and finally the zone around 107.70
Have a great trading day!
Tags: Eur/Usd Gbp/Usd
Surprise surprise
Posted on September 5, 2008 at 12:38 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The Non farm payrolls print awful numbers for the U.S.: the unemployment rate rise to 6.1%, the economy lost more jobs than expected, and previous month number was also revised to the downside. However, majors are unable to fight against dollar bulls: Follow this 15 minutes candle both, in euro and Gbp. A break of the minimum or the maximum, could confirm a continuation yet due to general sentiment, don’t expect majors to rise even after these numbers.
Majors for today
Posted on September 5, 2008 at 9:01 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting right now around 1.4230, and remains bearish: under 1.4212, yesterday’s minimum, next supports will be at 1.4184, 1.4151 and finally the zone around 1.4116. Resistances from here will be at 1.4280, 1.4316, today’s maximum that if broken could send the pair to 1.4370.
The Gbp/Usd has broken again to the downside, without noticing any support: the pair continues addressing to the monthly ascendant line mentioned this week, around 1.7300, that seems to be the final objective of this downside movement. From actual price, 1.7620, resistances today will be at 1.7668, followed by 1.7725 and finally the zone around 1.7780. Supports on the other hand will be at the zone around 1.7580, followed by 1.7537, minimum, that if broken will give bearish momentum to the pair to the zone around 1.7470.
The Usd/Jpy remains bearish, after breaking trough the key zone around 107.20,a daily ascendant trend line. The pair already completed a pullback to the mentioned line, and seems ready to continue to the downside: under 106.03, next supports will be at 105.72, the zone around 105.25 and finally 104.93. Resistances from actual 106.28 will be at 106.58, 106.91 and the zone around 107.20
Have a great day!
Starting the day
Posted on September 5, 2008 at 8:33 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. With no much of a surprise on these days, dollar continues rising after the ECB downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2009 to as low as 0.6%. Despite both European Central banks left rates unchanged, both Euro and Gbp fell late in the American afternoon as market sentiment has turned against them: while many market players thinkthe worst is over in the U.S., Europe is exactly in the opposite position: starting to go down. Japanese yen continues strengthening against major rivals, as it remains a lower risk currency. Today’s employment report is expected a bit disappointing for the U.S., and in other times, will probable drag dollar down but I don’t think the expected readings for today could affect greenback: the numbers should be worse than expected, to see some dollar losings.
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production for July (Expected-0.3% Previous 0.2%)
08:30 US Non-farm Payrolls for August (Expected -70K Previous -51K) and Unemployment rate, expected with no changes at 5.7%
Majors update
Posted on September 4, 2008 at 13:45 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
From a technical perspective, things are quite boring by this time, as majors continue moving sideways: the pairs are consolidating in tight zones, unable to find a trigger to define a certain way. Maybe the US ISM could help, but mostly, i expect majors to stay in ranges, till tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls; yet the day is still young and the choppy trading could continue giving short term trades between actual ranges.
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Posted on September 3, 2008 at 9:32 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik11 Comments »
As I been saying these last days, and can’t find yet a floor tothis free fall we are seeing in the Pound. A probable target to this movement could be the zone around 1.7300, where we find and ascendant trend line in monthly charts, also the 200 EMA in that time frame: take a look at this monthly chart:
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/gbp-300x225.gif
Turning to smaller charts, indicators show the pair is way too over sold, yet from a technical perspective, there are no signs of a reversal in this movement: for today, under actual minimum zone around 1.7665, next target will be at 1.7610/20 zone, and finally 1.7585.resistances forn actual price will be at 1.7735, followed by the zone around 1.7780 and finally 1.7810.
Eur/Usd technical view
Posted on September 3, 2008 at 9:02 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is falling the same way that raise one year ago: running day atfter day way out of bonds, without even notice supports of any kind, and moving a larger amount of pips that the daily average. Corrections are so shy, you can’t even notice them sometimes, and the bigger retracement most of us are expecting (in fact more in Gbp that here) seems to be off for the summer; indicators show the pair is over sold in daily charts, yet far for giving any contrarian signal to this dollar bullish momentum. The Pair is quoting right now around 1.4410, after reaching 1.4387, 61.8% of a weekly Fibonacci rally 1.3360/1.6038. Being such a level, the support should hold big, yet in actual market conditions and as I always say, nothing is 100% reliable in forex: a break trough the minimum could take the pair to next support today, around 1.4342 and finally the zone od 1.4300.Analysing such Fibonacci, will mean to see where daily and weekly candles close, in order to define further moves.Above 1.4436, the pair will find next resistance at 1.4465 and finally the congestion zone around 1.4500.
Starting another greenback day
Posted on September 3, 2008 at 8:29 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi welcome to a new day in Forex market. Greenback continued advancing yesterday and during the Asian session,mainly due to lingering pessimism over the European and the U.K. economic outlook; it’s counterparts weakness is being helped by falling oil that after reaching 150 $ a barrel, now is close to “just” 100.-.
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
4:30 GBPServices PMI(Expected 47.0 Previous 47.4)
05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product for the Q2 expected with no changes at -0.2%
05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales for July (Expected -0.1% Previous -0.6%)
08:15 US ADP Employment August (Expected -19K Previous 9K)
10:00 US Factory Orders for July (Expected 0.4% Previous 1.7%)
10:35 US Crude Inventories 08/30 (Previous -177K)
14:00 US Fed’s Beige Book
Tags: eurusd
Eur/Usd update
Posted on September 2, 2008 at 14:28 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Helped by some bad news in the U.S. the Eur/Usdand respecting the weekly trend line, the pair has rebounded in the expected zone around 1.4465 giving a good number of pips till now. The pair should continue fron here, to the zone around 1.4560, where we found an hourly descendant trend line, of course weaker than the weekly one, yet a short term resistance for this movement. A confirmation above 1.4560 could send the pair back close to 1.4600/10.
Tags: eurusd
Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd update
Posted on September 2, 2008 at 9:44 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Euro has reached the proposed zone around 1.4460, and rebounded, although it could continue a bit more, with next support around 1.4425. Meanwhile Gbp/Usd already passed the 1.7820, and an extension under 1.7785 could take the pair to 1.7730 zone.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on September 2, 2008 at 9:00 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Taking a look at 4 hours charts, the pair seems ready to recover the bullish strength, as both indicators are pointing in that direction, yet still giving no clear signal: the zone between 108.60/70 is the first resistance to consider, a congestion zone where also converges the 200 EMA in 4 hours charts. A confirmation above this point, will send the pair first to the zone around 109.00 and if wins momentum there, to 109.55, yet not seen for today. To the downside, supports will be at 108.21, 107.98 and yesterday’s minimum zone, around 107.60.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/files/2008/09/jpy_11-300x225.gif
Tags: usdjpy
The Gbp/Usd and the non bottom rally
Posted on September 2, 2008 at 8:34 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Quoting around 1.7860, the pair continues with the free fall that begins a month ago. I truly can not see an end of this downtrend for now, despite the oversold state RSI indicator is showing as in daily and weekly charts. Under actual minimum, next support will be around 1.7820, followed by the zone around 1.7785, that should be it for today. Be aware that a upside correction could be triggered any moment this week, so bearish trades should be placed with thigh stops. From actual price, resistances will be at 1.7890, followed by a very strong zone that the pair break to the downside without any consideration: 1.7935. A confirmation above this point could change the daily perspective, sending the pair back to the zone around 1.8000
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_31.gif
Tags: gbpusd
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Posted on September 2, 2008 at 8:13 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4500 and moving in a 4 hours descendant channel, with the base at 1.4465, next target for the pair under actual minimum 1.4493 reached a few minutes ago. The trend remains bearish and indicators are giving no signs of a turn for now, so that’s the main target for today; if you also draw a weakly ascendant trend line coming from 1.2488, you will find that for these days the line is also around 1.4460, so I expect the pair to rebound there as the trend lend should be enough support for today.See both charts:
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur4%20hours_thumb.gif
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_38.gif
To confirm a break to the downside, the pair should start the day tomorrow, clearly under that trend line, triggering a bearish rally at least to the zone around 1.4410. Regarding resistances from actual price, above 1.4555, the pair can regain some bullish momentum, first to the zone around 1.4585 and finally to 1.4610/20.
Tags: eurusd
Starting the day
Posted on September 2, 2008 at 7:54 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. What to add to what we can all see in charts? majors continue falling against greenback as market sentiment against European currencies remain negative as yield differentials continue to move against them. Yet I believe this whole reaction has been too quick to be sustainable in time, and sooner or later we are going to see a major correction. The question will be where and when: I will add it to my daily analysis in a few minutes.
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
04:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (Expected 3.9% Previous 4.1%)
10:00 US Construction Spending for July, expected with no changes at -0.4%
10:00 US ISM Index for August (Expected 49.5 Previous 50.0)
Meanwhile, and not being English my native language, I would like you to read a great college post about what’s going on with the Pound, he has certainly describe the situation in the words I would have liked to use: besides, Phil Newton lives in there, so, we have first hand information http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif Check the following link: http://tradesetups.fxstreet.com/2008/09/darling-i-love.html
Majors for Today
Posted on September 1, 2008 at 11:41 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Seems almost redundant but the 3 pairs I analyze in daily basis remain bearish for now. I don’t have faith on much more movements for today, yet what could happened in holidays is that, due to the lack of volume, any trade placed by a big player, not just common ones like us, could trigger a 20 seconds spike in either direction, that could send a pair 30 40 pips up or down, only to continue there the sideways movement typical of a holiday. For now, and regarding Euro/Usd, we may have a chance above 1.4670 to the upside, to the zone around 1.4700, and under 1.4619 to 1.4595 zone.
The Gbp/Usd seems heavily oversold, so we could expect a correction above 1.8082 first to 1.8115 and then to 1.8160 zone. To the downside, 1.8005 should hold for today.
The Usd/Jpy seems ready to continue: under 107.59 the pair could easily continue to the zone around 107.27/15 with a final target at 106.80 zone, a long term daily ascendant trend line that should offer some rebound. To the upside, 107.90 will be the firs resistance to consider, followed by the congestion zone around 108.06/10. A confirmation above this last, could change the trend for today and send the pair to the zone around 108.40
Have a great day!
Starting the day
Posted on September 1, 2008 at 11:08 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everyone hope you are fine! Welcome to a new month of dollar-strength-thanks-to-counterparts-weakness.(Again, leave the Japanese yen out of this). And of course, the crown is for the Pound, that plunged as negative remarks from the U.K. finance minister on the economy fueled speculation of an early rate cut by the BOE to a more than two years low, while German Retail Sales slight rise was not enough to vanished concerns about growth in the Euro Zone, sending also Euro to the downside. Being a US Holiday, we have no more fundamental news for today, and probably the volume will decrease hardly I the American session, yet I’ll be back in a few minutes with some probable technical points for today.
Majors for today
Posted on August 29, 2008 at 11:00 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The Eur/Usd is pretty much like yesterday, consolidating between 1.4680/1.4800, yet slightly bullish in 4 hours charts: indicators are quite flat for me today, not saying much: above actual maximum at 1.4767, the pair will find next resistance around 1.4795/4805 zone, a descendant trend line and a quite interesting maximums zone. Above this, next resistance will be at 1.4835 and finally yet not seen, the zone around 1.4861. Supports from here will be 1.4720, the zone around 1.,4680 and finally 1.4663.
The Gbp/Usd remains bearish in bigger charts, quoting right now around 1.8286, with a first support at the actual minimums zone between 1.8240/59, followed by 1.8210 and finally the zone around 1.8170, a strong zone that should hold yet not seen today. To the upside, 1.8324, a descendant 4 hours trend line will be first resistance for the following hours, and above this, 1.8373 and 1.8420 will be next bullish targets.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_30.gif
The Usd/Jpy is moving in a descendant channel, and already reached the base around 108.42 in actual 4 hours candle. To the upside, the pair needs to break above 108.84 zone, to continue in that direction, first to the zone around 109.10 and finally 109.40/50. Under the base of the channel and first support from here at 108.42 the pair could continue to 108.15 and 108.00 that has probed to be a tough point in previous weeks. under that point, the rally could extend to 107.70, turning the pair bearish for the next couple of weeks.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_10.gif
Starting the day
Posted on August 29, 2008 at 10:29 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody how are you? To be honest, by this time of the week I’m so tired! (here is 4:30 am, the time I woke up to start the blog). But you’re not here to read about me, but about market reactions right? ok, well let me tell you what I see right now: the fast and furious dollar rally these last 3 weeks, was due as I told you more to other currencies weakness that own strength, and seems that that initial positive over reaction about greenback is now being doubt: chances have turned to a major correction better than a continuation for the next days, generally speaking, and believe it or not, I can see that in most currencies but Pound, that by this time is the greater loser: almost 2000 pips, and despite the daily oversold state of the currency, I can not see a clear correction from here yet. Today is the last day of the month, so we could see some profit taking of dollar bulls, that could give some more bullish strength to it’s counterparts. A tiny rise in Gold and Oil is also helping to send dollar down, yet still, both are quite far of last month levels: only above 860.- and 130.- respectively, they could gain more bullish momentum and in consequence give some bearish to greenback. I will be back in a few minutes, with some technical analysis.
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (Expected -20 Previous -20)
08:30 Personal Income for July (Expected-0.2% Previous 0.1%) and Personal Spending (Expected 0.2% Previous 0.6%)
09:45 US Chicago PMI August (Expected 50.0 Previous 50.8)
10:00 US Michigan Sentiment-Rev. August (Expected 62.0 Previous 61.7)
04:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (Expected 3.9% Previous 4.1%)
Have a great trading day!
Other Majors for today
Posted on August 28, 2008 at 11:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Jpy is just above 109.00 and 4 hours candles are suggesting a bullish reversal, depending on next candle opening yet actual long downside shadow suggest the pair has not enough bearish strength, so above 109.60 the pair will likely run up to the zone around 109.55, strong zone these last days. Above this last, 109.80 will be final objective for today. Supports from here will be at 109.84, the zone around 108.60 that if broken will deny previous view and probably take the pair to 108.36.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_10.gif
The Usd/Chf seems to be forming one of the more reliable figures, a head and shoulders: Quoting right now around 1.0914 (the figure neck zone) a 4 hours candle opening under it could signal a bearish continuation of around 170 pips, the final target of the figure (of course not straight and not today, but in the next couple of days). In between the pair will find supports today at the zone around 1.0880/90, followed by 1.0848 and finally 1.0824. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.0930, the tough zone around 1.0950 and finally 1.0992.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/chf_thumb_3.gif
Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on August 28, 2008 at 11:04 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4760, slightly bullish in 4 hours charts, but loosing steam after rebounding around 1.4810. Above 1.4785 the pair will try to retest the strong zone around 1.4810, yet only a confirmation above that point could trigger some more bullish for today, to the zone around 1.4835. Supports from here will be at 1.4740. followed by a congestion zone between dynamic support formed by an ascending trend line right now around 1.4720and 1.4710, and finally the zone around 1.4683.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_37.gif
The Gbp/Usd hasn’t change much since yesterday, as the pair remains under bearish pressure: with a first support around 1.8336, under this point the pair will quickly target 1.8310 and finally yesterday’s minimum at 1.8285, looking as a probable bottom for today. To the upside, the pair will find it’s first resistance at 1.8415, a descendant trend line that only if broken could trigger some bullish in the pair, first to the zone around 1.8467 and finally but not seen, 1.8500.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_29.gif
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd
Starting the day
Posted on August 28, 2008 at 10:40 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. Majors are slowly recovering grown against greenback, but with mixed results: while Euro raise helped by some hawkish remarks from ECB members that lowered chances of a rate cut, also supported by arise in crude prices, the Pound remains weak all across the board. Meanwhile Japanese yen is likely to continue it’s strength as Japan has been less affected by the global slowdown. Yet generally speaking majors remain in ranges for now, consolidating before next substantial move. I will post the levels I believe majors need to break trough in order to start that move, after my daily analysis.
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
08:30 US Prelim GDP for the Q2 (Expected 2.7% Previous 1.9%) and Chain Deflator, expected with no changes at 1.1%
08:30 US Initial Claims 08/23 425K 432K
Have a great day!
Majors for today
Posted on August 27, 2008 at 11:45 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4720, slightly bullish in 4 hours charts, although the pair has a tough congestion zone between 1.4740/60, that won’t be easy to break. Only a confirmation above this zone, could bring some more bullish in the next hours, being next resistances at 1.4805 and finally 1.4835, a descendant trend line. Supports from here will be at 1.4704 and the zone around 1.4680. Under this last, expect the pair to regain bearish momentum.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_36.gif
The Gbp/Usd remains bearish yet quite over sold in daily charts, suggesting a bullish correction for the days to come; also indicators are pointing higher, with CCi cutting the 0 line downside up, and momentum also pointing up. Today, the pair needs to confirm above the 20SMA right now around 1.8490, to continue to the upside, with next resistances around 1.8538 and finally the zone around 1.8585. Supports from here will be at 1.8405 and 1.8363.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_28.gif
The Usd/Jpy continues bearish in 4 hours charts, and under actual minimum at 108.70, the pair will find next important support at the very close 108.50 zone, that seems strong enough to hold today. Yet a break trough that level, could send the pair first to 108.33 and finally the zone around 108.10. Resistances from here will be at109.10 followed by the tough zone around 109.55.
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Posted on August 25, 2008 at 14:07 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4760, and slightly bullish for the rest of the day. In this 4 hours charts you can see two trend lines: a descending one in the chart, and an ascendant one in the momentum indicator: this is what we call a divergence, meaning the indicator is telling us chances are to the upside. Resistances from here will be at 1.4790, followed by the zone around 1.4833, and finally, yet not seen, the descendant trend line around 1.4870. Yet if next 4 hours candle opens to the downside, and the indicator trend line get’s broken, we could see the pair coming down to the zone around 1.4718/25, and finally today’s minimum at 1.4697.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_35.gif
The Gbp/Usd is reversing early loses, quoting just above 1.8500, yet will have to confirm above 1.8530 to continue in that direction to next resistance zone around 1.8582. Right now, indicators are pointing to the upside, yet far from giving clear signals, so under 1.8486 we could see the pair gaining bearish momentum, first to the zone around 1.8442 and then to today’s minimum around 1.8405.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_27.gif
The Usd/Jpy remains under 110.00 a tough zone these last days: under 109.75, next support will be 109.55 that if broken will take the pair to 109.10. Resistances from actual 109.90 will be the zone around 110.10, followed by 110.43 and finally 110.66.
The Usd/Chf quoting around 1.0978, seems ready for a downside correction, yet needs to clearly pass trough 1.0950 zone to continue first to 1.0915 and finally the congestion zone around 1.0890. Resistances from here will be at 1.0996 above which we could see the pair returning to the maximum’s zone around 1.1030.
A new day a new week
Posted on August 25, 2008 at 13:15 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. Another week started with greenback extending gains against the Gbp and the Euro early in the Asian session, again more on these last weakness than in dollar strength. Yet despite the new two years low in the Pound, market forces seem quite balanced at the moment, as the U.S.economy continues to worry; in the next days, we will have a lot of fundamental data, that could define majors trend for longer term, although still sentiment is ruling the market. Today, we have only one major report to take care of, Existing Home Sales in the U.S at 10:00 East Time, expected better than previous month, so it’s seems unlikely majors past trough any key technical level to confirm wether actual trend will continue or not.Anyway, I don’t expect too much for today, besides some spikes by the time of the report. I will be back in a few minutes with some technical’s. Have a great day!
Majors for today
Posted on August 22, 2008 at 14:03 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is turning to the downside, with indicators exhausted to the upside in 4 hours charts. Under actual minimum, next support will be around 1.4784, followed by the zone around 1.4748. Resistances from here will be the key 1.4833, followed by the zone around 1.4870.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_34.gif
The Gbp/Usd is giving bearish signals in 4 hours charts, addressing to the minimum zone around 1.8512, that will be confirmed under 1.8537. If passes under 1.8500, thought congestion zone, next support will be at 1.8460/70. Resistances from here will be at 1.8605 and and 1.8638.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_26.gif
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Posted on August 21, 2008 at 11:39 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Japanese Yen recovered strongly in the Asian session, turning the pair bearish: under actual minimum, 108.60 next support will be the strong congestion zone around 108.25/35, that should offer rebound before getting broken; a confirmation under that zone, could take the pair to next strong support at 107.89, minimum of the pair seen for today. Failure to confirm under 108.60 and with CCI exhausted in 4 hours charts, a recovery will take place above the 108.92 area, sending the pair back to 109.20 zone and finally to 109.55.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_9.gif
Majors for today
Posted on August 21, 2008 at 11:05 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Following the last up date, the Eur/Usd has broken the descendant channel that was moving in, and accomplish the proposed target, 1.4833 in the Asian session. I know not many people use the 14.6% in Fibonacci, but to understand where it came from, and how this wonderful tool works, I recommend you to read my dear college, Mr Facundo Molina, work about it: this is the link for it: http://www.fxstreet.com/education/technical/using-fibonacci-to-determinate-market-goals/2006-07-07.html . Back to technical’s, the pair rebounded in that zone, yet 4 hours charts remain slightly bullish but kind of choppy: right now in a congestion zone, above 1.4797/4805, the pair will retest the 1.4833, and once broken, the pair could extend gains to next resistance zone around 1.4865/70. Supports from here will be at 1.4755 and the zone around 1.4731 (pullback to the broken channel line, kind of dynamic as day gone by) that should hold for today, and offer some upside rebound.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_33.gif
The Gbp/Usd is slowly moving up, helped by a better than expected reading in Retail Sales a few minutes ago, and also with bullish signals in 4 hours charts, even clearer than previous pair; however the pair needs to break above 1.8725/35 zone, first resistance for today, to gain momentum to the upside, to the zone around 1.8780, as the pair is trapped in range. To the downside, supports will be at 1.8658,1.8631 and finally the zone around 1.8600, not seen at the moment.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_25.gif
Starting the reversal
Posted on August 21, 2008 at 10:27 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. Dollar recovery seems to be over for now, as majors are looking for a reversal after last weeks straight fall. Despite a really good reading in oil stocks that increased to more than 9 million and gave the American currency some extra strength late in the American session, market players are considerating other factors at the moment, (like interest rate differentials between the U.S. and other countries, that don’t seem to shrink anytime soon or the rebound in crude oil prices that put some extrainflationary pressure around the world).
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
04:30 GBP Retail Sales for July, MoM (Expected -0.2% Previous -3.9%) and YoY (Expected 1.8% Previous 2.2%)
08:30 US Initial Claims 08/16 (Expected 433K Previous 450K)
10:00 US Leading Indicators July (Expected -0.2% Previous -0.1%)
10:00 US Philadelphia Fed August (Expected -14.1 Previous -16.3)
I’ll be back in a few minutes, with a technical perspective, have a great day!
Some more technical
Posted on August 20, 2008 at 11:28 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Chf is recovering bullish strength, quoting right now at 1.0983, and addressing to the tough zone around 1.1000. Above this last, the maximum at 1.1031 will be next objective for the movement, and if broken, further gains will extend to the zone around 1.1062. Supports from here will be at 1.0942, followed by the zone around 1.0910.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/chf_thumb_2.gif
The Usd/Jpy remains bullish in 4 hours charts, although the pair will find a first resistance around 110.41: once broken, next target will be at the maximums zone around 110.63, and finally the zone around 111.00. Supports from here will be at 109.95 and finally the zone around 109.55 as yesterday.
Some technical for today
Posted on August 20, 2008 at 11:13 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd remains inside the descendant channel we talk about yesterday and reached the roof where the pair rebounded to the downside. Quoting right now around 1.4743, the pair will need to move under the congestion zone around 1.4725 to continue to the downside, to 1.4681 and finally the zone around 1.4660. Daily charts remain oversold so, above 1.4782, roof of the channel for today, the pair will find some resistance around 1.4805/10 (today’s maximum zone) yet the real target will be 1.4833, 14.6% Fibonacci rally 1.6038/1.4630.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_32.gif
The Gbp/Usd remains weak,moving sideways at the moment although 4 hours indicators are pointing to the downside at the moment. However, the pair needs to confirm under 1.8570 to continue in that direction, first to the zone around 1.8537, and finally to 1.8510. Resistances from actual 1.8595 will be at the zone around 1.8640, followed by 1.8685/92. Above this last, the pair will gain some bullish momentum for the next days.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_24.gif
Starting the day
Posted on August 20, 2008 at 10:54 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Finally greenback found a floor yesterday and ended the American sessionloosing some ground against major rivals, as lower U.S. stock markets, another fall in housing market numbers, and a rebound in global oil prices had reminded market players that the U.S. is not doing so great.
Today we have a day with practically no fundamental news ahead, as the BoE already published their Minutes, (no surprises there, votes where the same as previous month and both hikes and cuts have been discussed) but Oil inventories in the US at 10:35 East time, so we will have a great technical day ahead.
News in the US
Posted on August 19, 2008 at 14:40 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
With PPI far above expectations (meaning higher inflation, in fact pushing it to the highest since 1991) and Housing reports worse than expected, dollar seems ready for another bullish run as inflation is weighing more: The Euro under 1.4630 could easily run to the base of the channel around 1.4605.
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steady around 1.4660.
The Jpy and the Gbp
Posted on August 19, 2008 at 11:03 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Jpy is turning bearish in bigger charts, with indicators pointing for a further downside continuation. Fighting the 110.00 zone right now, first support will be around 109.55 that once broken could take the pair to 109.31, maximum seen today, yet if reached, a confirmation of the downside bias. Resistances from here will be at 110.21,followed by 110.40, and finally 110.66.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_9.gif
The Gbp/Usd remains weak all across the board yet technically the pair is over sold even in weekly charts, so we could expect a more interesting correction if the pair manages to confirm above 1.8610, first resistance for today, that could send the pair to 1.8668 and them to 1.8725. Only a daily confirmation above this last, will turn the pair to the upside at least for the short term. Supports from here will be at 1.8563, followed by 1.8515 and finally the zone around 1.8480, that if reached, will deny previews view.
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on August 19, 2008 at 10:45 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Quoting around 1.4661, the pair is moving inside a 4 hours descendant channel, with the floor around 1.4600, so is likely that under actual minimum around 1.4630, the pair reach thatsupport zone, where the pair should rebound, as the daily RSI remains quite over sold, around 17. Failure to confirm under 1.4630, could send the pair to next resistance at 1.4704, followed by the congestion zone around 1.4740, and finally 1.4790, projection for today of the channel roof.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_31.gif
Starting the day
Posted on August 19, 2008 at 10:29 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Dollar continues strong against major rivals, having already hit new monthly maximums in the first day of the week and despite these last weeks rally; however and although I expect the rally to continue a bit more, the next couple of weeks will be definitive for the American currency: with housing and employment data, that could shown a weak third quarter, is more likely to see some retracement. Anyway and starting in a few minutes with the ZEW Survey, we have a moved day ahead:
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
06:00 EUR German ZEW Survey for August, about Economic Sentiment (Expected -62.8 Previous -63.9), Current Situation (Expected 10 Previous 17) and Euro zone Economic Sentiment (Expected -65.5 Previous -63.7)
08:30 US Building Permits (Expected 949K Previous 1091K)
08:30 US Housing Starts (Expected 963K Previous 1066K)
08:30 US PPI July (Expected 0.6% Previous 1.8%) and Core PPI, expected with no changes at 0.2%
Majors for today
Posted on August 15, 2008 at 11:55 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4726,after already reaching 1.4702 first support for today, that if broken could trigger another downside rally, first to the the zone around 1.4660/70 and finally to 1.4638. To true upside, only above 1.4760 the pair could offer some bullish recovery, to 1.4806.
The Gbp/Usd continues falling, but the daily oversold state is suggesting the pair won’t fall longer: a bullish correction is due to bee seen in the next days, and from actual 1.8575 a confirmation above 1.8610, could send the pair to 1.8646 and finally the zone around 1.8690/1.8710. Supports today will be at 1.8550 and finally 1.8512, today’s minimum. under that point, previous view is denied and the pair will continue falling to 1.8458 (not seen).
The Usd/Jpy remains bullish in 4 hours charts, with no signs of exhaustion yet: above 110.70, the pair could easily continue to the zone around 111.10, and finally 111.44, tops for today. Supports today will be at 110.34, 110.05 and finally the zone around 109.82.
Greenback pushed higher
Posted on August 15, 2008 at 11:26 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody welcome to another day in forex market. Late but sure, dollar rally came near New York close, sending greenback to months highs against most rivals. With also gold andoil falling, dollar sentiment has turned too quickly to positive, and I wonder how long it will last: is true the weakness of it’s pairs is what is driving this strength, but it’s also true America is still far from it’s best shape (just review yesterday’s unemployment numbers). Technically overbought almost against all rivals in bigger charts, greenback wins should be close to an important pause.
These are the most relevant news for today in the U.S.,East Time:
08:30 NY Empire State Index (Expected -5.0 Previous -4.9)
09:00 Net Foreign Purchases (Expected $57.5B Previous $67.0B)
09:15 Capacity Utilization (Expected 79.8% Previous 79.9%) and Industrial Production (Expected 0.0% Previous 0.5%)
USD update
Posted on August 14, 2008 at 15:10 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The dollar is recovering strength on higher CPI yet, thejobless claims had reached 450K and previous week revised to 460K really bad readings there. Although market remain in ranges, expect some more winnings in the currency, as CPI seems quite more important at the moment.
Free Access day on FXstreet.com
Posted on August 14, 2008 at 12:07 in Live Webinars by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Today, FXstreet.com offers to everyone the opportunity yo access all their webinars for free, including the usual Premium webinars,during the Free Access Day: in about two hours I will be discussing about Trading with channels, and you can register following this link: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=9d66b3b7-76d9-4dfa-a106-8a3564d8fafc .
But you can also get into hotcomm right now and hear expert traders giving free education and tips. Don’t miss it!.
If you have never used hotcomm, you can find step-by-step instructions here: http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129
Euro zone contracting
Posted on August 14, 2008 at 11:54 in Long-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
As expected, the fundamentals were quite negative for the euro zone, as the economy shrank in the second quarter, for the first time since 1995; not much of a surprise at this time, as we have been seeing bad readings in their macroeconomic reports for the past 4 months. Regarding the Euro, the currency will certainly continue to weaken against it’s rivals in the medium term, although in the short term, we could see some correction of these last days fall. We have still not much reaction in charts, but I expect the trading volume to increase considerably in the next hours.
GBP/Usd for today
Posted on August 14, 2008 at 11:43 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The pair seems to have taken a breath after falling very close to a weekly ascendant trend line around 1.8590. Quoting in the zone around 1.8700, above today’s maximum, 1.8735, we could see a recovery to the zone around1.8795 first, followed by 1.8840 and finally 1.8905 zone, 23.6% of the daily fall. To the downside, the pair has no much support until 1.8650, followed by the zone around 1.8590, that should offer an interesting rebound.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_23.gif
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on August 14, 2008 at 10:56 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
As expected, reports till now where quite negative for the Euro zone, and still we have no great reactions as the CPI (inflation) will be published in a few minutes; with the pair moving in a tight range in 4 hours charts, the levels to watch whether to confirm a continuation or an important correction will be 1.4815, this week minimum, that if passes will surely gave bearish momentum to the pair, and the zone around 1.4980, that again if broken, will be the beginning of a correction. Yet from actual price, around 1.4900, first resistance will be at 1.4935/40 zone, followed by the mentioned 1.4980. To the downside, 1.4851 is the first target zone.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_30.gif
Early start today
Posted on August 14, 2008 at 2:21 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. I decided to post this at first hour of the day, because I believe we will have a very moved day, particularly regarding Euro and Gbp: these last days, both currencies fell across the board, and despite the over sold state that suggest a big correction, a bottom is not clear for actual rallies particularly against American dollar. And even before the European session starts, we have a big number of fundamentals in Europe, that would certainly affect the Euro, as most of them are expected negative for the hegemonic currency, although the action will be stronger after the London opening. Anyway, these are the most relevant news for today, G.M.T:
06:00 EUR German Gross Domestic Product for the Q2 (Expected -0.8% Previous 1.5%)
06:00 EUR German Gross Domestic Product YoY (Expected 1.6% Previous 2.6%)
06:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index for July, MoM expected with no changes at 0.6%, and YoY also expected with no changes at 3.3%
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product for the Q2 (Expected -0.2% Previous 0.7%)
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index for July, MoM (Expected -0.1% Previous 0.4%) and Core, expected with no changes at 1.8%
12:30 US CPI for July (Expected 0.4% Previous 1.1%) and Core CPI (Expected 0.2% Previous 0.3%)
12:30 Initial Claims 08/09 (Expected 436K Previous 455K)
Bad day for me
Posted on August 13, 2008 at 13:22 in Starting the day by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
I want to apologize today for not being here, but the true is I’m too sick to take care of market: winter in this side of the world is mistreating me. I will take a rest today, to be able to face the huge day I believe tomorrow will be.
Thanks, and again sorry!
See you all tomorrow!
Majors for today
Posted on August 12, 2008 at 11:12 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik4 Comments »
Regarding Eur/Usd, not much to add to last view: the pair remains oversold, yet with no signs of exhaustion: as long as 1.4860 holds, the pair could recover to the zone between 1.4900/20 and above, to 1.4966. Under the mentioned 1.4860, the pair could easily return to today’s minimum around 1.4815.
The GBP/Usd continues falling, having reached 1.8968 after 8 consecutive days of free fall and still with no signs of a reversal: Under actual minimum, next support will be at the zone around 1.8915, and finally 1.8882, a monthly ascendant trend line that should offer an important rebound. To the upside, 1.9025/35 zone will be the first resistance for today, followed by the zone around 1.9085 and finally 1.9140.
the Usd/Jpy continues moving sideways, yet ready to break trough the maximums zone around 110.37/40, that will drive the pair first to the zone around 110.75 and finally 111.06. Supports, for today will be at 109.84, and 109.46
Starting the day
Posted on August 12, 2008 at 10:26 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope yo are fine. Greenback continued winning in the Asian session, yet seems to have found a roof (for now) against most rivals. In a few minutes, inflation in England will put some action in GBP pairs, and later today we have the US TradeBalance, expected negative. With most pairs oversold against dollar, let’s see if the currency finally start a correction today (from the technical point of view, and helped by fundamentals)
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
4:30 GBP CPI (Expected 4.1% Previous 3.8%) and Core (Expected 1.7% Previous 1.6%)
8:30 USD Trade Balance (Expected -61.8B Previous -59.8B)
I’ll be back in a few minutes. Have a great trading day!
Eur/Usd for the Asian session
Posted on August 12, 2008 at 2:27 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has reached a new minimum at 1.4879, and I was expecting the new day opening to see if I can see something else, but in fact, I don’t: the pair remains bearish and despite the over sold state, there are no signs of a reversal or correction yet. Under the mentioned minimum, the pair will find next supports around 1.4847 and 1.4819. A more strong support will be around 1.4775, yet seems the pair is consolidating around 1.4900/60 before choosing between continuation and correction. Above 1.4966, we could see a recovery to the zone around 1.5000.
See you tomorrow in the European session!
Eur/Usd short term rebound
Posted on August 11, 2008 at 15:03 in Trading Opportunities by Valeria Bednarik3 Comments »
After reaching the 23.6% level around 1.5080, the pair has strongly rebounded to the downside. However, the zone around 1.4945/55 should hold for today, and offer a bullish rebound in the next couple of hours. Under 1.4920, previous vision is denied. However, a break under that level seems unlikelyfor today.
Other majors for today
Posted on August 11, 2008 at 11:44 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
The Usd/Jpy remains bullish, and as these last weeks, the pair is taking it’s time but moving upwards firmer: right now consolidating around 109.80, above 110.13 the pair will test again the maximums around 110.37, and above that, next target will be at 110.75 zone, not seen likely for today. Supports from here will be at 109.55, and 109.28.
The Usd/Chf remains overbought but has a strong support between at 1.0733: only a confirmation under this value will take the pair first, to the zone around 1.0690 and finally 1.0660. Resistances from here will be at 1.0792 and 1.0830.
For the Aud/Usd, we could expect a more interesting bullish rally, as the pair also re,mains quite over sold: above 0.8955, the pair could easily continue to 0.8980 zone and finally 0.9026. Supports today will be at 0.8868 and 0.8842, Asian session minimum.
Majors correction
Posted on August 11, 2008 at 11:20 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is right now around 1.5070, fighting right now the 23.6% retracement of the last fall in daily charts. Also RSI is still over sold in daily and 4 hours charts, pointing to 1.5110 zone if the pair breaks actual maximum at 1.5087. Above the first,next resistance will be at the zone around 1.5135/45. I don’t see much further advance for today. Supports from here, will be at 1.5038, 1.5005 and finally 1.4982.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_29.gif
The Gbp/Usd seems also ready for a deeper correction as the pair is too quite over sold in daily charts. Resistances from here will be at 1.9268, followed by the zone around 1.9310, and finally the zone around 1.9345/60. Supports from here will be at 1.9190, followed by 1.9159. Take a look at this 4 hours chart:
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_22.gif
Starting the day
Posted on August 11, 2008 at 10:58 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. Well, dollar fast and furious recovery seems to have finally took a breath, and after hitting several months highs against most rivals in the Asian session, the greenback started an important bearish correction; I was remembering that, just a couple of weeks ago, a 1.4900 in Euro was something nobody could imagine, or less, a 0.06 cents drop in just two days. And if by that time, many gurus were claiming for the 1.65, now they are for the 1.45. The true is that in fact things are changing, but as I told you, is not dollar strength but it’s counterparts weakness leading this movement, and although I expect further medium term gains in the American currency, is also true we should see a deeper correction before a bullish continuation. And I’m not talking just about Euro, although lately seems to be the best performing market sentiment thermometer.
I will take a better look at intraday charts and come back in some minutes. Have a great trading day!
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on August 8, 2008 at 12:12 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Another straight oversold fall here, the Gbp/Usd has it first important support at 1.9185, price from March 2007, followed by a congestion zone around 1.9150 that should offer some upside rebound. Above the zone around 1.9270/80, the pair could extend the recovery to 1.9335, and finally the zone around 1.9360.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_21.gif
The Usd/Jpy remains consolidating around maximums, but ready for a further extension of the bullish rally. Above today’s maximum, 110.13 will be next resistance, that if cleared, will trigger a more interesting rally at least to the zone around 110.46. Supports will be at 109.32 and 109.06; under this last one, we could see some deeper fall to the zone around 108.60 that should hold.
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on August 8, 2008 at 11:50 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd continuesfalling right now around 1.5130, and despite the straight fall and the over sold state, under 1.5110 first support for today, the pair will find a more significant one around 1.5066, that should contain the fall for now. Resistances from here, will be at 1.5190, followed by the zone around 1.5245. Above this, correction can extend to 1.5280.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_28.gif
Starting the day
Posted on August 8, 2008 at 11:31 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. Well, not much to add after last yesterday’s comment: dollar continues to benefit from it’s rivals slowdown: the ghost of recession is flying above Europe, and sentiment has quickly turned against euro, sending it to a 6 month low against greenback.
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time, both of medium relevance:
08:30 US Productivity Preliminary Q2 (Expected 2.5% Previous 2.6%)
10:00 US Wholesale Inventories June (Expected 0.6% Previous 0.8%)
I’ll be back in a few minutes with some technical analysis.
After Trichet
Posted on August 7, 2008 at 16:09 in Long-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Well, more or less as what I was expecting, Mr. Trichet’s concerns turned from inflation towards the downside risks of growth, as he said that“economic growth is likely to be substantially weaker than the first quarter” from here on, making a new rate hike this year quite unlikely. Despite he remains hawkish regarding inflation ( justifying past July hike) and the ECB policy is far from being accommodative, I understand that after these last months slowdown, sooner or later the ECB must act to avoid the euro zone economic deterioration.
Right now, pending home sales have been released, showing an important improvement in the housing market, and dollar continues up, against most rivals: quite over bought, extreme levels will be: Euro around 1.5330, Chf around 1.0645, and Jpy around 109.90
ECB rates decision
Posted on August 7, 2008 at 14:04 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Again as expected, ECB leaved rates unchanged at 4.25%, and market remains on hold, I guess waiting for the speech. However, I wonder what can it do: will Trichet dare to maintain his hawkish position about inflation concerns, and ignore the economic slowdown of the zone? I don’t think so. Could a hawkish speech favor Euro? I believe only in the very short term. Dollar strength continues clear helped by the weakness of it’s counterparts. For what I see right now, a really dovish speech, an announcement or no more hikes, or even (but unlikely) an announcement of a future cut, could trigger the huge rallies we where used to.
Gbp rates
Posted on August 7, 2008 at 13:05 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
As expected, the BoE leaved rates unchanged at 5.0%, and as the minutes of the meeting will be released in two weeks, there is not much of a reaction in the Sterling Pound for now, and seems we won’t have any until Mr. Jean Claude Trichet, ECB president´s speech.
Majors for today II
Posted on August 7, 2008 at 12:23 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Jpy finally broke to the upside and seems to be consolidating before continuing: above yesterday’s maximum at 109.88. the pair could easily continue first to 110.10, followed by 110.46 and finally the more weak zone around 110.70. Not seen for today, as the pair seems close to overbought and should correct a bit before such continuation. First support today will be the zone around 109.26, that if broken could send the pair deeper to 108.92, and 108.57 and finally the congestion zone around 108.35 that should hold and offer a great bullish opportunity in the pair.
The Usd/Chf, quoting around 1.0560, has already corrected the over bought state reached yesterday. if the pair remains here, without breaking to the downside the first support zone around 1.0530, we would see a bullish continuation that will find resistances at 1.0582, followed by yesterday’s maximum at 1.0608and finally 1.0645. Under the mentioned 1.0530, the pair will be looking for 1.0496 and finally 1.0475 zone.
Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on August 7, 2008 at 11:59 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting at 1.5476, recovering some ground although the trend remains bearish as long as the pair remains under 1.5545 a descendant trend line coming from 1.5944 highs. Above actual high, the pair will find it’s first resistance around 1.5515, before the mentioned 1.5545. A confirmation above this last, could take the pair to 1.5589.To the downside 1.5443 and 1.5398 will be the supports to consider, before a new bearish rally, that if broken, could target 1.5346.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_27.gif
The Gbp/Usd is very close to the first resistance for today, the quite strong zone around 1.9526. Although the pair remains bearish, a correction is needed before a downside continuation. Above the mentioned point next resistance will be at 1.9572, where the pair should bounce. Above the last, 1.9610 is next resistance, yet doesn’t seems likely for today. First support will be at 1.9486, followed by the congestion zone around 1.9465 that has been holding thigh: a confirmation under this point will send the pair first to 1.9430 and finally to 1.9395 zone.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_20.gif
Starting the day
Posted on August 7, 2008 at 11:26 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. Dollar had a better day than me yesterday, as is true I’m seeing a recover since last week or more, yet I was not expecting yesterday’s new highs against Euro, Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen; in fact, I was expecting market to remain in ranges. Anyway, today we have huge news ahead, that can put some noise in this greenback recovery, particularly against European majors: although both rates are expected with no changes, the ECB press conference could halt the Euro fall, at least for today: I believe not even a hawkish speech could disguise the bad economic situation in Europe, as at this point is hard to believe their fighting the right battle.
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
7:00 GBP Official Bank Rate (Expected 5.00% Previous 5.00%)
7:45 EUR Minimum Bid Rate (Expected 4.25% Previous 4.25%)
8:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
08:30 US Initial Claims 08/02 (Expected 440K Previous 448K)
10:00 US Pending Home Sales June (Expected -1.3% Previous -4.7%)
Short term rebounds
Posted on August 6, 2008 at 15:29 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Chf has reached a key level around 1.0570, and should offer a 20 pips rally to the zone around 1.0550 before continuing to next resistance around 1.0600.
The Usd/Jpy, also should give up some ground, as long as 109.10 remains unbroken, to the zone around 108.65
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on August 6, 2008 at 12:55 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd remains bearish in bigger charts, and after correcting the 38.2% of the last rally, the pair seems ready to continue to the downside. First support will be like yesterday, the strong congestion zone around 1.5455, followed by the zone around 1.5410 and finally 1.5390. Above 1.5488, the recovery could extend to today’s maximum, around 1.5520, that should hold for now. In fact, I expect a quite choppy day, any aggressive break trough ahead of tomorrow’sdata.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_26.gif
the Gbp/Usd also is consolidating around 1.9550,moving sideways between 1.9520/1.9575. Although the pair is clearly bearish, we could expect some bullish correction before the next downside rally. Today’s resistances will be at 1.9572, followed by the zone around 1.9600 and finally 1.9638. Under today’s minimum, next support will be, like yesterday, around 1.9490 and 1.9466.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_19.gif
The Usd/Jpy finally breaks above the first congestion zone mentioned yesterday, and despite the pair is over bough in smaller charts, a bullish continuation is quite probable: above today’s maximum, next target will be at 109.10 (maximum seen for today) and then 109.46. first support will be the congestion zone around 108.25/38 that should hold for the next hours, followed finally by 108.00
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_8.gif
Starting the day
Posted on August 6, 2008 at 11:45 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. Despite the FED leaved rates unchanged, and what we can consider a more dovish than hawkish statement, greenback defended it’s gainsagainst major rivals yesterday,proving that European currencies are falling not on greenback strength but on their own weakness. After a brief correction majors remain very close to yesterday’s minimums, and there are big chances of a choppy day, ahead of tomorrow data: the main “question” is how hawkish the European Central Bank will be, as Euro has been kind of the leader in the dollar negative rally: can an important dollar strength there drag down the rest of the currencies? I believe so.
These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:
6:00 EUR German Factory Orders m/m (Expected 0.4% Previous -0.9%)
10:35 US Crude Inventories 08/02 (Previous -81K)
15:00 US Consumer Credit June (Expected $6.0B Previous $7.8B)
I’ll be back in a few minutes, have a great trading day!
Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy pre FOMC decision
Posted on August 5, 2008 at 19:43 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd has failed to the upside, and remains very close to the key support zone around 1.5455 mentioned earlier. A break trough this congestion zone, will send the pair to 1.5435 and further, around 1.5400.
The Usd/Jpy also seems ready for a bullish continuation, and above recent maximum, targets will be at 108.59 and 109.10
The USD/JPY for today
Posted on August 5, 2008 at 14:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
My favorite pair is telling me not much these last days: as commented yesterday, the bullish momentum has lost steam, and the pair remains contained between the resistance zone around 108.25/38,and an ascendant trend line clear in 4 hours charts, today around 107.75. But if you take a look at this chart, you will see indicators are turning upside down, while both a simple 20 periods MA and and exponential 200 MA are really flat. If the pair manages to confirm with a 4 hours candle opening under 107.55/70 first support zone, we could see further fall to 107.26 and finally the zone around 107.00 that should hold for today. A bullish rally seems capped by the strong congestion zone mentioned above, and then by 108.59, the year maximum. Only a break trough this point, will turn the pair clearly bullish, quite unlikely right now.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_7.gif
Majors for today
Posted on August 5, 2008 at 13:47 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is moving in a 4 hours descendant channel, and despite indicators are showing the pair is entering in over sold zone, a confirmation under 1.5450/60, a tough congestion zone, could trigger more bearish to next support, around 1,5415,and finally 1.5490 where we could see some an interesting rebound. From here, resistances will be at 1.5492, the zone around 1.5530 and finally 1.5568, roof of the mentioned channel.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_25.gif
The Gbp/Usd continues the bearish trend of this last days, after breaking the base of the channel mentioned yesterday. Although is not clear yet, the pair should do some bullish correction before continuing to the downside. Under today’s minimum, net support will be at 1.9492, and then 1.9466. A correction will find resistances at 1.9580 and then 1.9622.
Starting the day
Posted on August 5, 2008 at 13:32 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you’re fine. Dollar is gaining strength against it’s rivals ahead of FOMC’s decision as market sentiment continues to improve, while bad economic data continues at the other side of the Atlantic, and Oil is falling to 120 U$ a barrel: this could be a little contradictory, as usually, yes a fall in oil represents an improvement in dollar, but in this case also means inflationary pressures could become to ease, and with no inflationthere will be no rates hikes in the US, and right now, dollar strength is gaining exactly on that hopes: a rate hike not for today, but no doubts in the short term. So a Hawkish or dovish speech today will be the first golden key to dollar destiny.
These are the most relevant news for the American Session, East Time:
10:00 ISM Services July (Expected 48.0 Previous 48.2)
14:15 FOMC Policy Statement
I’ll be back in a few minutes, with technical analysis
Have a great trading day!
Majors for today
Posted on August 4, 2008 at 10:58 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is slightly bullish in 4 hours charts, very close to the first resistance zone around 1.5605, a descendant trend line that should hold for now: only a confirmation above 1.5620 could take the pair to the zone around 1.5645 where we should see a bearish rebound. A break of this point is unlikely today. Regarding supports, the pair has 1.5562, 1.5538 and finally the zone around 1.5511.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_24.gif
the Gbp/Usd continues to look bearish in bigger charts, and right now, is fighting the floor of a descendant channel clear in 4 hours charts: a bullish rebound from here seems quite probable for now, with resistances at 1.9720, and then 1.9760 zone. A confirmation under 1.9664, first strong support for today, could trigger a bearish rally to the next support, around 1.9624
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_18.gif
The Usd/Jpy remains bullish in bigger charts, still unable to break to the upside, the strong resistance zone around 108.36. Above this point, the pair could target 108.59 this year maximum, although it seems unlikely for now, as the pair remains in ranges; supports today will be at 107.84, and the zone around 107.55 a daily ascendant trend line.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_6.gif
The “rates” week
Posted on August 4, 2008 at 10:33 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you’re fine. Dollar had a quite positive week, not only due to it’s own strength but also to the weakness of it’s counterparts, as I have been posting here some days ago. Yet, this shy dollar positive sentiment will be tested this next days as the three major banks (FED, ECB and BOE) are announcing their economic policy: although is not expected a move in any of them, the statements could suggest that while the US may begin to hike interest rates in the coming months, while the ECB and the BOE may have to keep them unchanged or even consider lowering their rates, turning dollar bullish more firmer. The Fed will start tomorrow, so we could see some choppy trading till that moment.
These are the most relevant news for today, none of real relevance, East Time:
04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Expected 37.6 Previous 38.8)
08:30 US Core PCE Price Index m/m (Expected 0.2% Previous 0.1%)
08:30 US Personal Income (Expected -0.1% Previous 1.9%) and Personal Spending (Expected 0.5% Previous 0.8%)
10:00 US Factory Orders June (Expected 0.7% Previous 0.6%)
ISM and Greenback
Posted on August 1, 2008 at 16:17 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The index is better than expected and right in the limit: 50.0 but gold and oil are recovering these last day losses and majors seems readyfor a deeper correction before dollar recovery: Euro should rebound in the zone around 1.5600 while Japanese yen should not break under 107.20. Gbp could extend gains to the zone around 1.9790.
After Non Farm Payrolls
Posted on August 1, 2008 at 15:33 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Mixed data (a better than expected number of payrolls, a worse unemployment rate) helps the previous dollar bullish trend, yet not enough to pass trough key levels; still, market has not yet defined, as is probably waiting for the ISM Index to be released in a few minutes, and could be decisive: a better than expected reading there, or even better, a reading above 50.0 will certainly turn the greenback bullish for the rest of the session.
Anyway the upside seems pretty much contained for now, let’s see what happens with the ISM.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on July 31, 2008 at 13:46 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Gbp is moving sideways, yet also like yesterday, under the key level around 1.9830/40: above this zone next resistance will be at the zone around 1.9870/80, followed by 1.9920 and finally 1.9962, the descendant trend line mentioned yesterday. To the downside, the pair has find support around 1.9781, and if broken could trigger an interesting bearish rally first to 1.9745, yesterday’s minimum, and finally 1.9710.
The Usd/Jpy remains bullish close to the congestion zone between 108.33/41, first resistance for today, although the pair seems ready to continue to 108.59, this year maximum. Above this last point, we could see a quick upside run first to 108,82 and finally the zone around 109.10. Supports form here will be at 108.00 the zone around 107.60 and finally but not seen for now, 107.20.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_5.gif
The Eur/Usd for today
Posted on July 31, 2008 at 12:58 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Not far from where they were yesterday, majors are moving in ranges, after reaching new minimums against dollar.
The Eur/Usd continues looking bearish in daily charts, although 4 hours is suggesting some bullish movements for today, with CCI cutting the 0 line to the upside. Still fighting under the daily trend line broken, the pair will have to confirm above it, today around 1.5630 to continue to the upside, to the zone around 1.5675, a 4 hours descendant trend line, that should hold for today. To the downside, supports will be pretty much like yesterday, the zone around 1.5650/60, followed by yesterday’s minimum 1.5621 and finally the zone around 1.5487.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_23.gif
Starting the day
Posted on July 31, 2008 at 12:07 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you’re fine. I’m just sitting here, wondering what’s new under the sun, to comment with you. The fact is that’s not much: early news in Europe and England shown that the tentacles of economic slowdown has certainly reached the other coast of the Atlantic, and the U.S. is not the only one in trouble; however, I can also remember thinking this in past December, past February, past April.. saying that it was just a matter of time to see a dollar recovery, (let’s not forget, it is still the reference currency all around the world)but months pass and greenback continued falling against it’s major rivals. I have no more information that any of you can find on the Internet; I keep believing that only rates movements can change the dominant trend (and by the way, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet next Tuesday) and that gold and oil are kind of thermometers of market feelings about dollar. Anyway, between today and tomorrow, we have plenty of heavy economic data in the U.S. and I’m just wondering if we are not at the beginning of the so long expected greenback bulls back on the tape.
Maybe a final note: I don’t expect it to be fast or furious: the rates differential weights lots against dollar. But with such a worldwide slowdown which is the currency to buy? How many will run back to safe heavens? Let me know what you think!
These are the most relevant news for today East Time:
08:30 US GDP-Adv. Q2 (Expected 2.3% Previous 1.0%) and Chain Deflator-Adv. (Expected 2.3% Previous 2.7%)
08:30 US Initial Claims 07/26 (Expected 395K Previous 406K)
09:45 US Chicago PMI July (Expected 49.0 Previous 49.6)
Majors’s technicals for today
Posted on July 30, 2008 at 11:34 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik3 Comments »
The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.5600, after breaking yesterday, an ascendant daily trend line coming from 1.4438. A few minutes ago, the pair even completed a pullback to the broken line, and seems to be forming a flag in 4 hours charts: a flag is a continuation figure, meaning that if the pair manages to confirm under 1.5560, the base of the small 4 hours charts channel, it should continue to the downside, more or less the same amount of pips of the flagpole, around 160. Anyway, this does not mean it will happen in a few hours, but should be a certain downtrend confirmation with supports at a congestion zone between 1.5525/33, followed by 1.5502 and finally the zone around 1.5483. A confirmation above 1.5628 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s fall) will denied the formation, and the pair will be targeting the zone around 1.5670, next resistance for today, followed finally by 1.5690/1.5710.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_22.gif
The Gbp/Usd, is fighting right now the key level around 1.9835/45, after breaking to the downside also a long ascendant daily trend line. Above actual level the pair could continue to the zone around 1.9870, pullback to the broken line, that should contain the upside in order to continue the bearish rally. Above that point (not likely at least for now), next resistance will be at 1.9910. To the downside, the pair must pass under 1.9795, to continue to yesterday’s low zone around 1.9750/60, that once broken, will take the pair to 1.9710.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_17.gif
The Usd/Jpy remain bullish in bigger charts, but seems ready for a downside correction, after continuing it’s rally: under today’s minimum the pair will find an interesting support at 107.56, where the pair should offer some rebound. If this level is broken, next support will be at 107.20 and finally 106.84, yet this point seems unlikely for today. To the upside, again the 108.00 will be the first level to pass, followed by 108.28, yesterday’s high, and finally 108.59
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_4.gif
Starting the day
Posted on July 30, 2008 at 10:53 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody how are you? A jump in Consumer Confidence in the US, together with falling oil and gold prices, pushed dollar to a quite impressive recovery all across the board, pushing majors trough important support or resistance zones: however, a continuation of this dollar bull will depend on today’s probable correction length, as majors seems ready to push those levels back.
These are the most relevant news for today:
5:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Expected -19 Previous -17)
8:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Expected -58K Previous -79K)
10:35 USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected -1.2M Previous -1.6M)
« Newer posts – Older posts »
upside, but the pair could find some resistance around 1.9890. If passes, then watch for 1.9940 zone.trading opportunity
Posted on July 29, 2008 at 13:30 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Gbp/Usd is falling quick yet short term charts are announcing a probable bullish correction to the zone around 1.9940. I believe a bullish rebound around 1.9855/60 is likely as long as 1.9830 remains intact. take a look at this 30 minutes chart:
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_16.gif
Majors for today II
Posted on July 29, 2008 at 12:46 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Jpy remains bullish in bigger charts, and I expect the pair to break to the upside with strength in the next days; for now, the pair remains contained by the 108.00 and and pretty much like yesterday, resistances willbe around 108.30 and then 108.59, this year maximum: that will be the point to break in order to trigger the longer term upside rally I’m expecting, at least to the zone around 110.00. To the downside, the pair is resting in an ascendant trend line right now around 107.48, first support for today, followed by the zone around 107.05/20, that should hold for today. A confirmation under that point, could delay the bullish continuation, yet 106.55 should give some interesting rebounds.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_3.gif
Majors for today
Posted on July 29, 2008 at 11:19 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur Usd is quoting around 1.5740, contained for now, by the 38% retracements of the last Fibonacci rally from 1.5944/1.5628; with no clear signs of directions, above yesterday’s maximum at 1.5768, we could see some more bullish to the zone around 1.5805, and although it seems unlikely, the final upside target will be 1.5830, congestion zone and also the 61.8% of the mentioned rally. To the downside, the pair has a tough congestion zone around 1.5715/25, also coincident with a short term ascendant trend line: a confirmation under this point, will find next support zone at 1.5686 and finally the zone around 1.5660.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_21.gif
The Gbp/Usd also is moving sideways, yet slightly bearish in bigger charts: quoting around 1.9933, the zone between 1.9895/1.9910 should act as a first support, and only a confirmation under it could put some bearish momentum on the pair, first to the zone around 1.9867 and finally 1.9835/45. Resistances from here will be 1.9962, and then 1.9998 a descendant trend line that should hold for today.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_15.gif
The Usd/Chf quoting around 1.0338, has formed a double top in 4 hours charts, and despite is also moving sideways, a confirmation under the neck line at 1.0315, first support for today, could trigger a bearish rally to 1.0284, and finally the zone around 1.0250. Above 1.0358, next resistance will be the roof of the double top, the zone of 1.0405, that if passed, will negate the figure, and trigger a bullish rally to the zone around 1.0426.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/chf_thumb_1.gif
Starting the day
Posted on July 29, 2008 at 10:54 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. The lack of news is keeping market in tight ranges, waiting for this week employment data in the US, whether to decide if is time for some dollar bulls, or to keep on selling the greenback: last week the American currency was favored by (finally!) falling oil and gold prices, and a continuous deterioration in European economic situation, that was halted by the end of the week, after poor US housing reports; Indeed, the currency remains fragile and vulnerable to market sentiment changes and a more interesting correction is still out of sight: despite the economic slowdown is being felt in the other side of the Atlantic, and although we can think a recovery is around the corner, the true is that rates differential against most rivals, will continue to keep greenback weak (discarding of course, short term rallies).
These are the most relevant news for today East Time:
Preliminary Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Expected 0.5% Previous 0.3%)
Preliminary Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Expected 3.2% Previous 3.3%)
10:00USD Consumer Confidence for July (Expected 50 Previous 50.4)
I will be back in a few minutes with more detail technical analysis
Have a great trading day!
Slow Mondays
Posted on July 28, 2008 at 10:10 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Hi everybody, hope you’re fine. Mondays are not my favorite trading day, worse if we have no news, that could put some more action to market. Majors (except by GBP) are moving in quite small ranges since the Asian session opening, and seems there will be no much acceleration in the next hours.
The Eur/Usd, looks slightly bullish in 4 hours charts, despite the sideways of the last candles; it has a first support zone around 1.5681, that should break trough to continue first to 1.5650 and then last Friday’s minimum at 1.5627. Above today’s maximum at 1.5724, the pair could continue to the zone between 1.5750/60.
The GBP/Usd is easing again, but just bounced on the key level around 1.9835, and that will be a key zone for the pair: a confirmation under this congestion zone, also coincident with a daily ascendant trend line, could trigger the pair quickly to the downside, with it’s next support at 1.9797 and finally 1.9749. Resistances today will be at 1.9890, followed by the zone around 2.0005, a short term descendant trend line in bigger charts.
Despite the long term clear ascendant trend, the Usd/Jpy remains capped by 108.00, that keeps the upside limited for now: a confirmation above this point, will send the pair to the zone around 108.30, and then 108.59 year’s maximum that won’t be an easy point to break at least in a first attempt. To the downside, first support will be around 107.55, followed by the zone around 107.10/20.
Just the American Session
Posted on July 25, 2008 at 13:54 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
The market negative sentiment weighed quickly yesterday, after the release of bad data in the U.S. making Thursday a quite slow day, with majors fighting back after reaching the key zones mentioned here.
We have for the American Session, the Durable Orders report at 8:30 east time, and the New Home Sales at 10:00 both expected to the downside: that could put more pressure on poor dollar at the end of the week, let’s see what could happen with each major pair:
The Eur/Usd is quoting right now around 1.5750, 38.2% of the 1.5944/1.5638 downside rally, correcting the oversold state we have seen yesterday: if the pair is unable to confirm above 1.5750/66, we could see a downside movement first to the zone around 1.5715, and then to 1.5672. A confirmation above this levels, will take the pair to the zone around 1.5790 and finally 1.5820.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_20.gif
The Gbp/Usd is looking bullish in 4 hours charts, an above 1.9978 the pair will easily continue to the zone around 2.0030, where we can see a descendant trend line, that should offer some resistance. Above this line, and after completing a pullback, the pair will continue to the zone around 2.0080/90. Supports from here will be at 1.9930 1.9896 and then the zone around 1.9853.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_14.gif
Majors levels
Posted on July 24, 2008 at 11:14 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Jpy is not saying much at the moment, as the pair remains moving sideways in a thigh range, although the daily bullish trend continues clear. The pair has toped twice at 107.97, so above that point the pair could gain some upside momentum to the zone around 108.20 and finally 108.59 this year’s maximum. Seems unlikely a break trough that point today. Supports, from here will be at 107.45, followed by 107.10 and finally the zone around 106.80.
The Usd/Chf seems ready for a bearish correction right now, after reachinga daily high at 1.0403; first support will be around 1.0350, followed by 1.0322 and then 1.0287. Resistances from here, will be the mentioned maximum at 1.0400, followed by 1.0434 and finally 1.0461.
The Aud/Usd needs to break above 0.9626 to continue the bullish correction already underway: if confirms that level, next resistances will be at 0.9664 and finally the zone around 0.9700. Supports from here will be at 0.9594, followed by the zone around 0.9570 and finally 0.9542.
The Usd/Cad is also moving sideways, yet tending bullish: the pair will find a first support around 1.0104, that once broken could give more bullish momentum to the pair, first to the zone around 1.0120 and then 1.0158. Supports from here will be at 1.0072, 1.0049 and finally 1.0006.
Gbp/Usd key levels
Posted on July 24, 2008 at 10:41 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is falling quickly after the publication of the biggest drop in monthly Retail Sales since 1986. Rebounding right now the key level mentioned yesterday (in the support and resistance post) around 1.9830/40, also coincident with a daily ascendant trend line, only a confirmation under 1.9825 could trigger a downside continuation, first to 1.9792 and finally the zone around 1.9750. Resistances from here will be at 1.9890, followed by 1.9929 and finally the zone around 1.9970.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_13.gif
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on July 24, 2008 at 10:32 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd continues rallying down after the publication of a really poor IFO confidence survey in Germany, and a worse than expected Current Account for the Eurozone, showing that the region is suffering the global slowdown. Quoting around 1.5655, under actual minimum the pair could easily continue to the zone around 1.5610, and then a strong daily ascendant trend line, around 1.5578, that should offer some support for today, and a probable rebound. A 4 hours candle opening under that line, could made the pair gain bearish momentum, been today’s final objective around 1.5528. Looking oversold in the mentioned time frame a correction could find resistances at 1.5685, followed by the zone around 1.5715 and finally the zone around 1.5762.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_19.gif
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Posted on July 23, 2008 at 10:51 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik4 Comments »
The Usd/Jpy continues it’s healthy bullish trend clear in daily charts: indicators are quite strong in that time frame, although 4 hours charts are giving divergences, suggesting a correction before a continuation to the upside: from here, the pair will find it’s first resistance around 108.15 if passes 107.94, and then 108.59, this year’s maximum, that seems to be the final target zone for today if the pair continues actual movements. A correction will find supports around 107.46, followed by 107.10/15 and finally the zone around 106.60.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_8.gif
The Usd/Chf that quotes right now arounda strong resistance zone at 1.0350, needs to confirm above the actual maximum to continue to 1.0386, placing our next resistance at 1.0420. Supports from here will be at 1.0324 and 1.0290, pullback to a descendant daily trend line that the pair is attempting to break today.The pair seems also bullish for today.
BOE’S Decision
Posted on July 23, 2008 at 10:36 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Bank of England voted7 to 2 to keep rates on hold, yet despite some negative comments from Besley, the majority saw that inflation and a economic slowdown concerns have eased, reducing the need of a rate hikegiving Gbp a positive first spike to the first resistance zone. If market understands that there will be no further cuts in the short term, we could see the pair continuing in that direction, although is not yet confirmed: let’s see what the currency has to say in the next 15 - 30 minutes.
Majors for today
Posted on July 23, 2008 at 10:19 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd remains bearish in bigger charts, after breaking yesterday the key level around 1.5800, and an ascendant trend line that had been guiding the pair for the last month: despite actual consolidation, under today’s minimum around 1.5740 the pair will found no important support until the zone around 1.5714 and then 1.5684; a break of that level, will send the pair to 1.5646, main bearish target for today. Looking over sold in smaller charts, if 1.5740 holds, above 1.5780 the pair could regain the 1.5810 zone, with next resistances at 1.5838 (pullback to the broken line) and finally 1.5867.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_18.gif
The Gbp/Usd, is also moving sideways, but tending lower: first important support for today will be the zone around 1.9890, that if broken could trigger the pair first to the strong support zone between 1.9830/45, that should offer some rebound in the short term; only a confirmation under that level could signal a bearish continuation to the zone around 1.9806 and finally to the 1.9770 zone. Resistances from here will be at 1.9943, followed by 1.9980 and finally 2.0010.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_12.gif
Starting the day
Posted on July 23, 2008 at 9:56 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Greenback has a quite interesting recovery yesterday, impelled by the only news that can change these last days dollar heavy sell: speculations about a rate hike in the US; while Henry Paulson, Treasury Secretary remarked again the importance of a stronger dollar, the Philadelphia Fed President, Charles Plosser signaled that he would be voting to increase interest rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, bringing the idea of a rate hike in the US sooner than expected. and so, majors had passed trough what we consider key zones for the short term, and right now, are consolidating around there, signaling a probable continuation of yesterday’s move, as also Oil and Gold remain bearish returning some confidence to the old American dollar. Anyway we have the following news, East time, for today:
4:30 GBP BOE Meeting Minutes: Market will be paying attention on the number of votes that decided the hold in last rates decision, expected to be 8 against 1.
10:35 USD Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 USD Beige Book
I will be back in a few minutes, with a technical point of view
Eur/Usd update
Posted on July 21, 2008 at 14:29 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Trading remains choppy with majors moving in ranges, yet if this pair manages to break the daily minimum at 1.5828,(seems probable as indicators in smaller charts are suggesting so) we could see a quick run to the zone around 1.5810, a 4 hours ascendant trend line, where the pair could give another trading opportunity, a fast rebound to the upside.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_17.gif
Starting the day
Posted on July 21, 2008 at 10:36 in Starting the day by Valeria Bednarik6 Comments »
Hello every body welcome to another day in forex market! After last week slightly recovery, the American dollar continues falling after a rebound in oil prices, as the U.S. is one of the world’s main importer: greenback is dancing at oil’s rhythm, and majors are up more on risk aversion than in own strength.
The Eur/Usd is right now around 1.5900, despite the slowdown in eurozone economy: the pair looks bullish for the rest of the day, with a firs resistance around 1.5924, that if broken could send the pair first to 1.5949 and finally the zone around 1.5970/80. Supports today will be at 1.5872, the zone around 1.5840 and finally 1.5810 an ascendant trend line clear in 4 hours charts.
The GBP/Usd has fallen on more bad news on UK house prices and the suggestions the economy is getting into recession, quoting right now around 1.9945: the pair is moving in a descendant channel that should lead the movements this week. However, above 1.9960, the pair could easily continue to 1.9988 and finally the zone around 2.0007, roof of the mentioned channel. Support from here will be at 1.9910 followed by 1.9865 (base of the channel), and finally the zone around 1.9830.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_11.gif
Finally the USD/JPY is falling quick after last Friday rally, quoting around 106.37: a continuation in that direction will be confirmed under 106.18, sending the pair to the zone around 105.90 and finally 105.56. Resistances from here, will be at 106.52, followed by the congestion zone around 106.75 and finally 107.10
EUR/USD
Posted on July 18, 2008 at 13:39 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/Usd remains choppy, with no certain direction trapped in a 100 pips range, between 1.5800 and 1.5895, yet sightly bearish for today; just for scalpers, under 1.5820 the pair could give a fast ride to the zone around 1.5800/05, and only a clear confirmation under that point could send the pair to next support at 1.5775, that for now, remains as the first short term inflexion point. Above 1.5863, we could see the pair approaching to the zone around 1.5900.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_16.gif
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Posted on July 17, 2008 at 10:52 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The eur/usd is moving in ranges yet slightly bullish in bigger charts: above 1.5880, roof of a descendant channel and first resistance for today, the pair will regaing momentum, targetting first the zone around 1.5910/20, and then 1.5948. First support from here, will be 1.5825, followed by the strong zone around 1.5800, that if broken could turn the pair bearish for the rest of the day, with a first objetive in the zone around 1.5770.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_15.gif
The Gbp/usd continues losing ground, but with no signals of a continuation to the downside. after acomplishing yesterday’s bearish objetive, the pair rebound and remains around the 2.0000 zone. Still, a continuation triangle is clear in charts: if the pair manages to confirm with a candle opening above the descendnat trend line, around 2.0025/35, the pair should regain the bullish rally, with next resistances at 2.0085 and finally the zone around 2.0121.With a first support at the congestion zone between 1.9960/75, the pair will have to brak under yesterday’s minimum, to 1.9958, to continue to the downside, with next supports at 1.9926 and finally the zone aroudn 1.9890.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_10.gif
Starting the day
Posted on July 17, 2008 at 10:13 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, welcome to another day in forex market. Greenback take breath yesterday and recovered some ground, after yesterday’s Bernanke comments Bernanke that “intervention could be warranted for calming disorderly markets” and better than expected production reports, also helped by the important increase in oil stocks, and a multiyear’s increase in CPI, that could put pressure on the FED to increase rates in the short term.By this hour, dollar is mixed against is rivals, and seems a more clear definition will take place in the American session, as we have no fundamentals in Europe this morning.
These are the most relevant news for today East Time:
08:30 US Building Permits June (Expected 965K Previous 969K)
08:30 US Housing Starts June (Expected 960K Previous 975K)
08:30 US Initial Claims 07/12 (Expected 380K Previous 346K)
10:00 US Philadelphia Fed July (Expected -15.0 Previous -17.1)
GBP/USD update
Posted on July 16, 2008 at 14:54 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is giving bearish signals in 1 hour charts, but has a strong support around 2.0000 I believe that if the pair manages to confirm under 1.9995, we could see a fast movement to the zone around 1.9965. Be aware we have some more US fundamentals underway. Look at the following chart
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_9.gif
GBP/Usd and Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on July 16, 2008 at 12:52 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Gbp/Usd is looking ready to run to the upside, as 4 hours indicators are pointing up, and is clear a continuation triangle in the mentioned timeframe: above 2.0085, the pair will regain bullish momentum, and next resistances will be at 2.0125, 2.0158, yesterday’s maximum and finally the zone around 2.0195. Supports from here will be atthe congestion zone between 2.0000/15, that if broken will denied previous view, sending the pair to 1.9960 and finally 1.9928.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_8.gif
The Usd/Jpy is quoting right now around the key level between 103.70/90, that should hold for now, despite the bearish trend clear in 4 hours charts,as the pair seems quite oversold; if the pair manages to break under that zone, we could see the pair gaining momentum to the downside, targeting first the zone around 103.48 and finally 103.10. Resistances from here will be at the zone around 104.20, followed by 104.57 and finally 105.00.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_7.gif
Eur/Usd for Today
Posted on July 16, 2008 at 12:16 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur Usd seems to be consolidating around the zone of 1.5900, before a new run to the upside: with a first resistance zone around 1.5942, a confirmation above that point could trigger a bullish rally, first to the zone around 1.5963 and finally up to 1.6000 again.first support today will be at 1.5900 a 4 hours ascendant trend line: a confirmation under that point could send the pair to the strong minimum around 1.5865, and only a break trough that point could avoid a new maximum in the pair these days.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_14.gif
Starting the day
Posted on July 16, 2008 at 10:26 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. It has been a long time since we don’t have a day as interesting and volatile like yesterday; funny to see, how market attention focused in the rescue plan of Fannie and Freddie (the credit companies in the US that are trembling at the moment) Paulson’s word, and no in the actual economic readings in both sides of the Atlantic. The dollar collapse was halted, but today we have a quite amount of fundamental data (check the following link: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/ ) including inflation, that could made of today another interesting, volatile journey.
I will be back in an hour with some technical’s.
Mixed data in US
Posted on July 15, 2008 at 14:47 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Greenback is recovering some ground against most rivals, yet still fighting the key levels proposed earlier: Euro needs to break under 1.5955 to continue, GBP at least 10 pips under actual 2.0082 and the Swiss franc above 1.0062. Japanese Yen seems the weakest at the moment and above 104,91 could easily continue at least to the zone around 105,20.
Eur/Usd
Posted on July 15, 2008 at 11:53 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
As expected, Eur/Usd is correcting the upside run after breaking to the downside 1.6005. the pair remains over bought in smaller charts, but this correction will find support in the zone between 1.5956/1.5966 (this last, the 61.8% of the short term up leg) If the pair remains between the actual zone and above the mentioned support, we could see another bullish rally in the next hours.
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Posted on July 15, 2008 at 11:24 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is breaking trough the historical maximum and pointing straight to the zone around 1.6050, where we could expect a short stop in the rally (I can’t see more than a slight rebound there despite the over bought state) followed by the zone between 1.6080/1.6100 these last Gann number. A rebound there seems more likely as is the roof of a 4 hours ascendant channel. Check the following chart:
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_13.gif
Only under 1,6005 we could see a downside rally, with supports at 1,5967 and the zone around 1.5920
Starting the day
Posted on July 15, 2008 at 11:16 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning welcome to this dollar free fall. Market negative sentiment against greenback is quite clear on charts: majors are running quiclky against it, ignoring everything else. We already had and inflation report in England (that growth more thanexpected) and the Zew survey from Germany pretty negative for the Euro zone and seems the only reason Euro didn’t break the historical maximum till now. We have some more news later on the US, all in East Time:
08:30 US NY Empire State Index July (Expected -8.0 Previous -8.7)
08:30 US Retail Sales Jun 0.4% 1.0% and Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.9% 1.2%
08:30 US PPI Jun (Expected 1.3% Previous 1.4%) and Core PPI Jun (Expected 0.3% Previous 0.2%)
10:00 US Business Inventories May expected with no changes at 0.5%
10:00 US Bernanke Gives Semiannual Monetary Policy Testimony at Senate
1530 US Fed’s Yellen Speaks in Los Angeles at Conference
Live webinar
Posted on July 14, 2008 at 13:47 in Live Webinars by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
In about 15 minutes, I will be holding a live webinar about backtesting trading systems. You can go there following this link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=48ceb250-2de6-4cbd-a837-4ef303ec0965
See you there!
Majors for today
Posted on July 14, 2008 at 11:15 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Right now, the GBP/USD is fighting the key level 1.9835, that usually acts as a strong support or resistance, pushed down by a bad reading in the PPI. Anyway, the zone around 1.9800 is also tough enough to cap further downside rallies. However a confirmation under that point, will turn the pair bearish for the rest of the day. Resistances from here will be at 1.9866, followed by 1.9890 and finally the zone around 1.9910.
USD/JPY remains bullish in bigger charts, with a first resistance in 106.80, that if passed, could send the pair first to 107.10 and finally the zone around 107.36. Under 106.48, the pair willprobably fallto 106.17 and finally to the zone around 105.80, a good bullish rebound zone, for today.
Eur/Usd for today
Posted on July 14, 2008 at 10:46 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
the pair already corrected the 38.2% Fibonacci rally of the last up leg in 4hours charts, from 1.5764 to 1.5963: it has a tough support zone around 1.5835, that if broken could send the pair to the next support at 1.5798. Seems unlikely to see the pair under that support today, asby this hour it has already rallied more that 100 pips, although 4 hours indicators are suggesting a continuation to the downside. If manages to pass, next support will be at 1.5772.
First resistance from here will be in the zone around 1.5888, followed by the zone around 1.5920, and finally 1.5963, Asian session maximum.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_12.gif
In a few minutes European Industrial Production, expected quite negative, is the only schedule fundamental that can affect the pair today.
Starting the day
Posted on July 14, 2008 at 10:14 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, welcome to a new day in forex market. Fears of another financial turmoil last Friday, send dollar down stronglyagainst it’s rivals, as two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell on rumors of bankrupt. Good readings in American reports last week were not enough to save the American currency, and with gold and oil running high, (the last one with new maximums close to 150 dollars a barrel), investors mistrust was well reflected all across the board. Anyway, the US government seems ready to rescue both companies, and markets seems to be reacting slightly favorably today, but far from a real greenback recovery. In a few minutes, we have the following fundamentals to be release in Europe, east time:
4:30 GBP PPI Input monthly (Expected 2.5% Previous 3.8%)
5:00 EUR Industrial Production monthly (Expected -2.3% Previous 0.9%)
I will be back in a few minutes with a technical perspective.
Have a great trading day!
Trade Balance deficit better than expected
Posted on July 11, 2008 at 14:34 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
The US deficit was less than expected and less than previous months. With credit turmoil, majors are overbought in smaller charts against dollar. the positive reading could stop the dollar fall, and give some corrections from the actual maximums. Euro shoud break down 1.9835 to continue down GBP the zone aroudn 1.9805 and JPY recover above 106,40. corrections should find support/resistance around that points.
Majors for today II
Posted on July 11, 2008 at 11:02 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Usd/Chf has broken to the downside and ascendant trend line, and indicators also point for a continuation. Quoting around 1.0280, the pair will need to break under 1.0248 to gain bearish momentum to the zone around 1.0210 and finally 1.0165. To the upside, first resistance will be 1.0307, followed by 1.0341 and finally 1.0378.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/chf_thumb.gif
Usd/JPY remains bullish, following an ascendant trend line in 4 hours charts, yet moving in a thigh range. Above 107.30, we could see the pair moving to the zone around 107.53 and finally the zone around 107.70. supports from here will be 106.89 (the mentioned trend line that should offer an interesting rebound) followed by the zone around 106.66 and finally 106.34.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_2.gif
Majors for today
Posted on July 11, 2008 at 10:45 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Technically speaking Euro/Usd remains bullish in bigger charts, with a first resistance around yesterday’s maximum 1.5803. If the pair manages to break trough, first objective will be the zone around 1.5835, and then the zone around 1.5888, with a brief in the middle around 1.5856. With indicators flat in that time frame, a confirmation under 1.5749 could send the pair to the tough zone around 1.5710 and finally 1.5687, the ascendant trend line that has been guiding the pair these last days.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_11.gif
As commented yesterday in the BOE Live coverage, GBP/Usd is still bearish in bigger charts, yet not ready to confirm the continuation. Take a look at this charts and Fibonacci levels: after correcting almost the 61.8% of the last fall, the pair is right now fighting the 38.2%: if the 4 hours candles remain under this level, around 1.9770, the pair should continue to the zone around 1.9725/30, followed by 1.9705, and finally the zone around 1.9666. Resistances from here will be at 1.9792, followed by 1.9830/40 that should hold for today. A confirmation above this point will turn the pair bullish for next week.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_7.gif
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Posted on July 10, 2008 at 10:53 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik4 Comments »
The Eur/Usd is right now at 1.5716, slightly bearish in 4 hours charts although the background remains bullish. The pair will find a first support around 1.5688, followed by the congestion zone around 1.5650/60, also an ascendant trend line: a confirmation under this line, could trigger a bearish rally in the pair to the zone around 1.5610. Resistances today will be at 1.5735, followed by 1,5761 and finally the zone around 1.5790
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_10.gif
Gbp/Usd is quoting at 1.9752 and seems ready to continue to the downside, if manages to break under 1.9730, to the zone around 1.9682 and then 1.9625. Resistances today will be ay 1.9790, 1.9840 and finally 1.9896.
Usd/Chf is pointing to the upside, but right now and a resistance zone, around 1.0320: next one will be at 1.0351, and finally 1.0390. supports from here will be at 1.0300, 1.0274 and finally 1.0226
Usd/Jpy also ready to continue to the upside, will find resistances at 107,53 and 107.77. Above this last one, the bullish rally well get more interesting, targeting the zone around 108.20. Supports today will be at 107.05, 106.80 and finally the zone around 106.55.
Starting the day
Posted on July 10, 2008 at 10:17 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody hope you are fine. I keep watching market many hours a day, and lately I’ve been kind of bored of the lack of definitions beyond the short term: majors again are moving sideways after the past week Thursday reports, moving the range zone against dollar in some cases, true, but with nothing else. All these make me think that although thedollar is weak ( America facing recession, and the credit crunch worsening, oil price rising to the clouds, etc, etc), it has no further place to fall. I mean greenback is in bad shape ok, but could Europe stand with an expensive Euro? Fundamental readings keep on worsening in the old continent. Isn’t Englandcutting rates to control a financial crisis? Do you ever wonder how many crisis America lived I don’t know.. in the past century? yet dollar remains the reference currency all across the world. Of course I’m not saying thinks will change today, but the chance is now around the corner, if majors (and particularly the Europeans) don’t show some really strength to the upside.
Today, we have the following news, to take care of, East Time:
06:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision5.00%
08:30 US Initial Claims 07/05 (Previous 404K)
America wakes up
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 15:49 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
And greenback is falling against it’s rivals; euro is heading to the zone around 1.5750/60, while GBP needs to confirm above1.9770 to continue the run. Anyway, trading is quite choppy today. Watch Swiss franc to fall under 1.0290 and Jpy under 107,00. Both should give a fast 15/20 pips trade.
Trading Sideways Markets
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 14:19 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
As you know, there are plenty of indicators and oscillators. Each one, gives us some specific information that is useful for each market conditions. The Eur/Usd is moving sideways, so take a look at this one hour chart: stochastic oscillator (special for sideways markets)gave some short scalpings these week, and I think as long as the pair respect the descending trend line/today´s maximum zone, there are pretty chances of a turn around there to the downside (if passes 1.9736 vision is negated).
Also the pair is forming a triangle with the base around 1.5646, that if broken will probably mean a bearish continuation, although at this time of the day seems quite unlikely.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_9.gif
Majors for today
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 10:32 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is right now at 1.5682, with no clear definitions from indicators, although showing some bearish divergences en 4 hours charts: the pair has also a short term descendant trend line, around 1.5723, first resistance for today, followed by the zone around 1.5750 and finally 1.5788. Supports from here, will be at 1.5645, and the zone around 1.5600; a confirmation under this last point, could send the pair at least to the zone around 1.5549
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_8.gif
Meanwhile GBP/Usd quoting around 1.9690, tending bearish in 4 hours charts, yet needs to confirm under 1.9646, first support for today, in order to continue to the zone around 1.9610 and finally 1.9570. Resistances today will be at 1.9705 and 1.9742, a descendant trend line: a break to the upside could trigger a bullish rally at least to the zone around 1.9800, and finally 1.9840.
Usd/Chf also like Euro has strong divergences between charts and indicators, and needs to break the sideways range to define a certain direction: to the upside 1.0350 break trough, could trigger a bullish continuation, with next resistances at 1.0391 and then 1.0425. Supports from here will be at 1.0290, and 1.0225, base of the short term range.
Usd/Jpy is quoting right now at 107.50, moving slowly to the upside: above 107.70, the pair will find it’s next resistance at 108.20 and finally 108.58. Supports from here will be at the zone around 107.10, 106.60 and finally the zone around 106.34.
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Posted on July 8, 2008 at 10:38 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Usd/Chf is breaking lower, with a first support around 1.0210, followed by 1.0171, 1.0134 and finally the zone around 1.0100. Only above 1.0250 the pair could gain some bullish momentum, to the zone around 1.0285 and finally 1.0320.
Usd/Jpy is right now around 106.30, and tending bearish, yet close to an ascendant 4 hours trend line, that should hold at least for the next few hors, at 106.22. if the pair manages to confirm under the line, we would see a more interesting fall here, first to the zone around 105.86 and finally the strong support around 105.50. Resistances in case of a rebound, will be at 106.60, 106.93 and finally the zone around 107.20.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_6.gif
Finally Usd/Cad is around 1.0170 not really clear for me today: resistances will be at 1.0200, 1.0231 and finally the zone around 1.0270. Supports from here will be at 1.0138, the zone around 1.0100 and finally 1.0082
Majors for today
Posted on July 8, 2008 at 10:27 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/Usd is right now at 1.5735, with bullish signals in 4 hours charts, breaking a descendant trend line; however the pair needs to break above 1.5760 to continue running higher, first to the zone around 1.5790 and finally 1.5810. Supports from here will be 1.5715 (pullback to the mentioned trend line), the zone around 1.5680 and finally 1.5654.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_7.gif
GBP/Usd quotes at 1.9770 with no clear signs coming from indicators, as the pair is moving sideways. Above 1.9800, the pair could gain some bullish momentum, first to the strong zone around 1.9830/40 that if broken, will take the pair to 1.9885 and finally 1.9910. To the down side, supports will be at 1.9730, 1.9698 and finally 1.9645.
Aud/Usd , that quotes 0.9538 right now, seems ready to break down although it needs to confirm under the congestion zone 0.9494/0,9510 to continue in that direction, to the zone around 0,9460, 61.8% Fibonacci rally 0.9334/0.9666. Only a daily confirmation under this last, could give dollar some relief against the Australian. Resistances from here will be at 0.9570, 0.9600 and finally 0.9628
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/aud_thumb.gif
Starting the day
Posted on July 8, 2008 at 10:04 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. Quite a day yesterday as majors gave very interesting movements all across the board. Greenback recovery was interrupted and reversed with mixed results, after a sudden drop in US stocks, following Janet Yellen (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) comments on US inflation and of course, speculation about future/possible rate hikes. However dollar ended the day negative only against Euro, while against other currencies the reversion lost momentum by the end of American session. the Asian session has little to say, except by Japanese Yen that has been active and ready for more.
These are the most relevant news for today East Time:
10:00 US Pending Home Sales for May (Expected -3.0% Previous 6.3%)
10:00 US Wholesale Inventories for May (Expected 0.7% Previous 1.3%)
15:00 US Consumer Credit for May (Expected $7.0B Previous $8.9B)
19:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence for June (Expected 65 Previous 69)
In a few minutes, I will be back with the technical’s for today
Have a great trading day!
Renewed strength for greenback
Posted on July 7, 2008 at 15:40 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Stocks open higher after the holiday, while Oil futures dropped more than 4,60 US$ a barrel in a few minutes, giving dollar more bullish impulse. However majors are confronting important support and resistances zones, that need to be broken to continue in that direction after all the rallies seen till know, I believe under 1.5607 euro could gain down side momentum at least to the zone around 1.5575.
USD/JPY Technical view
Posted on July 7, 2008 at 14:30 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
The pair has been running up with no pause since the beginning of the Asian session, and right now is facing a tough congestion zone between 107.73/107.86 clear in 4 hours charts. With indicators turning as the pair seems tired of the run,a rebound around that zone seems likely in the next hours. If the pair manages to break above 107.95, the uptrend will continue at least to 108.20http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb_1.gif
Majors update
Posted on July 7, 2008 at 14:22 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
After accomplishing the proposed correction GBP is falling again, setting a new daily minimum, and targeting 1.9630, Gann number. If breaks trough and confirm, next target will be around 1.9606.
The rest of the majors seems to be waiting for the American opening, yet tending dollar bullish. Remember I told you Australian dollar generally is the first to move? see the pair, Euro should follow soon.
GBP/USD update
Posted on July 7, 2008 at 11:54 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is attempting to break the first support level proposed for today, although the pair has already rallied over 150 pips today.Looking at smaller charts, the pair seems quite over sold, so there are good chances for a rebound to the upside at this level, targetting the zone around 1.9690/1.9705. Look at the following hourly chart:
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_6.gif
If the pair breaks under 1.9650, the vision is denied and probably continue to the downside
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Posted on July 2, 2008 at 15:27 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair gain quickly despite I was unable to see this run today. Right now, the pair is above the roof of the horizontal channel clear in daily charts. If the pair manages to stay above 1.5850 and confirm with a candle opening up here, the figure will be pre announcing further raises for the medium term. However short term charts show the pair is over bought: we could see it returning to the zone around 1.5830/40 in the next minutes, it the maximum remains intact.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_5.gif
Not new, bad news in the US
Posted on July 2, 2008 at 14:24 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Not something market wasn’t expected yet the deviation between expected and real ADP (thatsees June US private sector jobs down 79,000, against the expected down 20,000) has triggered a bearish rally in dollar all across the board, showing market players are highly skeptical of the US economic future. Although I’m not expecting larger rallies for today, if mayors consolidate around this zone, things are getting really dark for greenback.
Majors for today
Posted on July 2, 2008 at 11:21 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Despite a new maximum at 1.5849 Eur/usd remains in range, unable to define a certain direction. In 4 hours charts the pair seems ready to correct a bit more today, but needs to confirm under 1.5775, first support for today, to continue in that direction to the zone around 1.5745. Seems unlikely the pair break trough that point today; to the up side, above 1.5820, the pair will retest the maximum’s zone, and could extend the movement till 1.5860.
GBP/USD rebounded yesterday in the roof of an ascendant channel, and with bad news from the housing sector, the pair is approaching to a very strong support level around 1.9820/30. Under that point, GBP will probably continue falling at least to the zone around 1.9785, next support for today. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.9904 and 1.9942.
USD/CHF is forming a double floor in 4 hours charts: an hourly candle opening above 1.0226, neck of the mentioned figure, could trigger a more interesting bullish rally, first to 1.0260 and finally the zone around 1.0300
USD/JPY is right now in a key zone, that could turn the pair bullish for the next hours: if the pair remains and confirms above 106.45, we could see a continuation to the zone around 106.78 and then the tough 107.10. Under 106.20, preview view will be denied and the pair should continue falling, first to 105,93 and finally the zone around 105.65
Starting the day
Posted on July 2, 2008 at 10:23 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. Dollar maintains it’s negative tone, despite Euro zone manufacturing activity contracted in June for the first time in three years, with the PMI falling to 49.2 from 50.6 in May, andU.K. PMI manufacturing index slumped to 45.8 in June, its lowest level since December 2001, but seems market players continue pricing in tomorrows data; anyway don’t expect too much action today, ahead of the big Thursday.
We have a number of fundamental news today, none of them of relevance, except maybe the US ADP. Please check the following link at FxStreet, to see the upcoming events for today
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I will come back in a few minutes, with some technicals.
Have a great trading day!
Majors Update
Posted on July 1, 2008 at 13:59 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
USD/JPY has completed a pullback to the trend line broken earlier. It the pair is unable to confirm above 105.65, we surely see more falls here
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_5.gif
Meanwhile, GBP approached to the first resistance, channel roof, and rebounded strongly. If passes 1.9946, we could see a deeper correction in the next hours.
Finally EUR/USD accomplished the proposed first target after breaking above 1.5780, to the zone around 1.5810. Right now, I cannot see a clear continuation from here, yet surely the pair remains bullish.
A final wordabout AUD/USD: the pair is turning bearish, after breaking a 4 hours ascendant trend line, and completed the pullback. It has an important congestion support zone around 0.9525, and seems like under 0.9520, the pair could gain momentum to the downside to the zone around 0.9485
More technical
Posted on July 1, 2008 at 11:05 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Japanese Yen continues to recover all across the board, helped by better than expected Tankan reading yesterday (in fact, the survey showed that manufactures expectations for the economy have continued to deteriorate, yet not as bad as the market was expecting).
In hourly charts, we can see a triangle, announcing a probable continuation to the down side, if the pair breaks the key support level around 105.50: the continuation will find a first support around 105.20 before breaking down to the zone around 104.90. A failure in the base of the triangle, will send the pair to the congestion zone around 106.10 and finally 106.47. Above this point, the pair will regain bullish strength.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_4.gif
USD/CHF, is moving sideways, unable to confirm a certain direction, yet tending bearish in bigger charts: the pair has a first support around 1.0170, followed by 1.0129 yesterday’s minimum: a break under this point could trigger a more interesting rally at least to the zone around 1.0085. Resistances from here will be at 1.0225, 1.0268 and finally the zone around 2.0300
Technical’s for Majors
Posted on July 1, 2008 at 10:38 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Taking a look at 4 hours charts, seems Eur/usd is ready to continue: yesterday the pair rebound exactly around the 38.2% of the last upleg, letting us draw an ascendant trend line that will be, together with the mentioned Fibo, the levels to watch: the pair will find the first support zone between 1.5720/40, and only a confirmation under those levels could turn into bearish, at least in the short term, targeting the zone around 1.5680, and finally 1.5650, 61.8% of the mentioned rally. To the upside, above 1.5780, the pair could easily recover ground returning to the zone around 1.5810 and finally 1.5843. Take a look a this chart:
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eu_thumb.gif
GBP/USD remains strong, movingin an ascendant channel, with no signs of exhaustion coming from indicators: above 2.0010, roof of the mentioned channel, the pair will find it’s next resistance around 2.0033 and finally 2.0085, congestion zone. A correction will find supports at 1.9946 and the strong zone around 1.9890. A confirmation under this point could send the pair to the tough support around 1.9830.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_5.gif
Starting the day
Posted on July 1, 2008 at 10:18 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good Morning! welcome to another day in forex market. Monday, as always, has been a boring day, with not much action around, and majors correcting last week rally. Yet the pause seems to come to an end and dollar continues falling, supported by good news both in Europe and England: German Retail sales early today come out far better than expected, and also did the Nationanwide House Prices in England, that remains the biggest winner these days. From the fundamental point of view, today we could see some more action, yet expect the markets to remain quiet tomorrow, ahead of the big Thursday. Anyway today, we have the following news, East time:
04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Expected 49.8 Previous 50.0) High
10:00 US Construction Spending May (Expected -0.6% Previous -0.4%) Medium
10:00 US ISM Index June (Expected 48.6 Previous 49.6) High
Both indexes,PMI for GBPand ISM for US are expected under 50.0. A reading above 50.0 means growth, while under that mark means desaceleration.
In a few minutes, I will post the technical point of view
Have a great trading day!
USD/JPY hourly chart
Posted on June 30, 2008 at 15:20 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The pair has found buyers around 105.00 and started a recovery above the key level of 105.50. right now, the pair needs to break above 105.94, a descendant trend line in hourly charts, that could trigger a more interesting bullish rally; also CCI is about to cross tue 0.00 line, ready to give a bullish signal. A confirmation above the trend line, will target at least, the zone around 106.20.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_3.gif
A fail to break the trend line, will send the pair back to 105.50. Remember we have Chicago PMI in the US in a few minutes.
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Posted on June 30, 2008 at 14:14 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik3 Comments »
The pair has an ascendant trend line in 4 hours charts, around actual price, and also a 38.2% retracement of the last upleg. A hourly candle open under this line, will send the pair to the zone around 1.9875.
Take a look at this hourly chart.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_4.gif
Majors Update
Posted on June 30, 2008 at 10:40 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/usd is quoting around 1.5810, and despite the pair is overbought, and technical divergences in 4 hours charts, the pair seems far for turning even in a small correction for now. Firs resistance for today will be the zone around 1.5845, followed by 1.5891 and finally 1.5920. Under 1.5789, the pair will find supports at the zone around 1.5750 and finally 1.5710.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_4.gif
GBP/Usd remains more clearly bullish, ready to test 2.00: the pair will find an intermediate resistance around 1.9965, that if broken will take the pair to 2.0000 followed by the strong zone around 2.0040. Supports from here will be at 1.9923, the zone around 1.9870 and finally 1.9830.
USD/CHF is giving signs of exhaustion in 4 hours chart, after already reaching 1.0140,first support for today, that if broke, will send the pair to the zone around 1.0105, an important congestion zone that won’t be easy to break. Resistances for the next hours will be at 1.0170, 1.0204 and finally 1.0233.
USD/JPY already tested the 105.00, and continues falling with no signs of a reversion yet. Under today’s minimum, the pair could easily conntinue to the zone around 104.60 and finally 104.34: watdh the US DJIA openning, as japanese yen is moving on risk aversion these days. Resistances from here, will be at 105.55 and then 105.91-
Starting the day
Posted on June 30, 2008 at 10:10 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. The first half of the year comes to an end with dollar really weak, falling across the board as the market has already priced in a rate hike from the ECB this week, while the most important report of the US, Non Farm Payrolls, is expected to disappoint also. In this situation, greenback continues falling against it’s major rivals despite the over sold state the currency is showing, yet dollar bears seems not that tired yet.
Today, we have the following news, East time:
5:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (Expected 3.9% Previous 3.7%)
9:45 USD Chicago PMI (Expected 48.2 Previous 49.1)
7:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Expected 3 Previous 11)
7:50 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Expected 8 Previous 12)
9:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y (Expected 0.7% Previous 0.8%)
Let’s take a look at the charts.
Mixed data in the U.S.
Posted on June 27, 2008 at 15:02 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Personal Income and Spending growth more than expected, yet inflation disappointed in the US. (check the following link toreview the data: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/ ), but despite the negative sentiment against dollar, majors seem quite exhausted and ready to start a correction: Euro needs to break under 1.5725 to run to the zone around 1.5680, while Japanese Yen needs to regain the 106.50 zone to trigger a bullish rally. GBP/USD, under 1.9853 to 1.9830.
Commodities Currencies
Posted on June 27, 2008 at 11:32 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Another post special just for the Australian and Canadian dollar: as you know, they are called commodities currencies as Australian dollar follows gold, as Canadian usually moves with oil; well oil has hit a new record high: crude oil futures rises above $141 a barrel in early London trade, while gold is above 922.00 dollars.
That’s sending both currencies up against greenback, with AUD very close to it’s record high (quoting right now at 0.9621, only 35 pips away) a correction seems likely before the upside continuation above that maximum.Meanwhile Usd/Cad is very close to a key support level around 1.0046, that should hold for now.
Note Consumer Confidence fell more than expected in the Euro zone, and that keeps the currency a bit on hold, after already testing the strong 1.5780 zone: the resistance was strong enough to give an almost 30 pips correction. Let’s see if the pair moves to test it again, witch probably will mean a break trough.
Majors preview for the day
Posted on June 27, 2008 at 10:54 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/Usd remains bullish in 4 hours charts, with a first resistance zone around 1.5770/80. A confirmation Above this point the pair is ready to test the the 1.5845 zone with a previous detention zone around 1.5815. If 1.5780 remains unbroken we could see a correction to the zone around 1.5745, and then to 1.5710.
GBP/USD also remains strong as the pair is moving in an ascendant channel: above 1.9895, yesterday’s maximum, the pair will be targeting 1.9933 the roof of the mentioned channel: a confirmation outside it, will send the pair first to the zone around 1.9935/45 and finally to 1.9990. Supports from here will be at 1.9858, 1.9820 and finally 1.9770.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_3.gif
USD/CHF continues falling although the pair seems over sold: with a first support around 1.0160,only breaking under 1.0144 the pair will gain enough momentum to continue to the zone around 1.0108. A correction will have resistances at 1.0217, 1.0261 and finally 1.0300.
USD/JPY is breaking a daily ascendant trend line, around 106.50 today, pre announcing further falls: under 106.10 the pair could easily continue to the congestion zone around 105.84, and then to 105.26, with an intermediate support around 105.50. Resistances from here will be: first, 106.50 the mentioned trend line that if regained, will negate previous view, and could take the pair to 106.77 and then to the zone around 107.10.
Have a great treading day!
Starting the day
Posted on June 27, 2008 at 10:31 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. Market remains dollar negative all across the board impelled by rising old and gold prices, and stocks drop, allof this after FOMC dovish decision last Wednesday; also, the Euro zone current accout deficit narrowed sharply in April, early this morning.
In a few minuteswe have the first interesting fundamental of the day, for GBP, expected quite negative for England:
4:30 GBP Current Account(Expected –12.0B Previous –8.5B)
5:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Expected -16 Previous -15)
08:30 US Personal Income (Expected 0.4% Previous 0.2%) and Personal Spending (Expected 0.7% Previous 0.2%)
08:30 US PCE Core Inflation (Expected 0.2% Previous 0.1%)
12:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
USD/JPY
Posted on June 26, 2008 at 18:52 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is right now, standing on a strong zone between 107,05 and 107,16. If you like trading breaks, wait for the pair to fall under 107,05: then it will probably continue to the zone around 106,85. But if you like rebounds, more likely at this time of the day, enter a bullish position to the zone around 107,30, wuth stop losses just a few pips under 107.00.
Remember the inverted triangle?
Posted on June 26, 2008 at 16:21 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
the Eur/Usd is running high, following a strong trend against dollar today. If the pair breaks above today’s maximum, we could see a continuation rally to the roof of the inverted triangle mentioned a few days ago, also coincident with a daily descendant trend line, around 1.5780, that will be a top resistance level zone for today.
Look at the 4 hours chart:
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/euro%204hs_thumb.gif
Supports and Resistance definition
Posted on June 26, 2008 at 16:15 in Technical Education by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
My college Dr. S Sivaraman made a comment here that I found extremely inlighting, as I have a very short experience as a blogger, so I decided to start a Technical Education section, to clear definitions, concepts indicators, and all the tools we have aviable for trading, adding comments of which ones, in my experience, are more useful.
So starting from the bases, let’s say that
A Support is the zone under market actual price, where demand strength is more powerful than offer strength, what produce a “stop” of the bearish movement followed by a bullish rebound.
A Resistance, is the zone above market actual price, where offer strength is more powerful than demand strength, what produce a “stop” of the bullish movement followed by a bearish rebound.
So, we understand as support or resistance, a zone where inside a bullish or bearish trend offer and demand are quite balanced enough to stop the price rally or even produce a retracements.
Notice I remarked, first a zone: prices could pass a few pips one way or the other, before actually stopping or reversing. Also, stopping or reversing, that will depend on the volume traded at the moment, the publication of a fundamental new, and some other factors, is something very useful for short term trading: if you don’t have an external factor, (as a new) is more than probable that at least the first time a pair test an important zone, you will have a retracement of around 15 pips like actually majors did today. If prices remain close to the level, the second attempt will probably be a break trough, confirming a new rally at least to the zone of the next one.
Let’s remember, the strength of a support or a resistance, will increase as more times a price rebound on it without breaking, and as much as it longs during time. And at the same time as stronger is a resistance, the stronger will be the bullish potential when is broken (and of course the same goes for a support).
« Newer posts – Older posts »
I will be covering LIVE form FXstreet.com home page. See you there!
Majors update
Posted on June 25, 2008 at 17:43 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Dollar recovered ground after the unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories, sending majors to the support and resistance levels mentioned earlier, as oil futures sank more than $4 a barrel, but is more likely to see a rebound around actual prices, than a break trough, at least until FOMC Statement.
By this hour, GBP/USDis at the base of an ascendant channel in 1 hours charts that should resist. Under 1.9660, the pair cain gain momentum to the downisde, yet to the upside today’s objetive is at 1.9773, a daily descendant trend line coming from 2.0029.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_2.gif
USD/JPY is pushing higher, yet has a really tough congestion zone around 108.40/60, and in smaller charts indicators are showing a probable come back to the zone of 108,10.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_2.gif
USD/CHF is forming a small continuation triangle in 30 minutes charts, but needs to confirm above 1.0445 to continue this bullish rally.
Before Durable Orders
Posted on June 25, 2008 at 14:21 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Durable Orders, to be released in a few minutes, have been already revised to the downside for the previous month, to –0.6% from –0.05%. For today we are expecting kind of a positive reading in this number around 0.0%, not the best, but better than previous one. But the Core Orders, are expect to fall sharply to –0.9$ from a previous reading of 2.4% and that shouldn’t be dollar positive. in that case, we could see GBP and Euro gaining ground fast, and the first target zone for both will be 1.9778 and for Euro the zone around 1.5650. As market players are “on hold” waiting for this afternoon FOMC decision, the rally should not pass trough that points more than around 10 pips, and then start a short living correction, to 1.9745 and 1.5620 respectively.
If the reading is dollar positive, then the levels to watch in both pairs will be 1.9670 and 1.5545
By the way, i will be covering LIVE the FOMC decision Today at 17,45 GMT - 13:45 EDT, LIVE from FXstreet.com homepage. Hope to see you there!
Support and Resistance levels
Posted on June 25, 2008 at 11:48 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
PAIRActualSupp 1Supp 2Res 1Res 2EUR/USD1.55761.56101.56501.55351.5510GBP/USD1.97101.96851.96551.97421.9778AUD/USD0.95570.95240.94880.95800.9606CHF/USD1.04181.03901.03491.04431.0492JPY/USD107.95107.70107.30108.20108.60CAD/USD1.01261.00981.00401.01441.0172
Today’s level could largely be broken after FOMC statement (or not) any way, before the rate announcement I will post probable target levels for the movements that could be triggered
Starting the day
Posted on June 25, 2008 at 10:06 in Starting the day by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. The day has come, and today’s FED’s policy statement (expected to keep rates unchanged after seven consecutive cuts), could finally break the delicate balance majors are experiencing these last days, as the battle between inflation and growth in the U.S. will probably have a winner today (but remember: it’s just a battle not the war). Anyway, greenback remains weak all across the board, as market players awaits for the true: is the FED worried about growth or inflationary pressures? If growth, rates should remain unchanged for a long time, and that won’t help dollar to gain ground; if inflation, then a rate hike in the short term seems quite possible and could send greenback in a very interesting bullish rally.
Today, we have the following news, East time:
Tentative EUR German Consumer Price Index for June, MoM (Expected 0.3% Previous 0.6%) and YoY (Expected 3.3% Previous 3.0%)
08:30 US Durable Orders for May (Expected 0.0% Previous -0.5%)
10:00 US New Home Sales for May (Expected 510K Previous 526K)
10:30 US Weekly Crude Inventories (Previous -1242K)
14:15 US FOMC Policy Statement
Majors Update
Posted on June 24, 2008 at 16:49 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Bad news in the US send dollar down against most rivals, that right now, are pushing trough key levels: GBP is fighting a very tough zone, between 1.9720/35 that seems unlikely to be broken today. We could see some retracements from here, as it also has a 61.8% Fibonacci rally 1.9791/1.9649.
Euro also has a tough resistance zone around 1.5625, but seems strong enough to stay around this levels till FOMC decision.Swiss Franc could give a clearer rebound as long as 1.0335 remains unbroken. Finally JPY will probably return to the zone around 107.70
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on June 24, 2008 at 15:55 in Long-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
One of my dearest colleges, Mr. Facundo Molina, director of MolFx, call my attention on this non conventional figure: take a look at this 4 hours charts. you’re seeing an inverted triangle that usually mean a trend change. For that to happen, the pair needs to break these last days tough support zone around 1.5460.
Anyway, with market sentiment pointing against American dollar, it’s seems a great rebound/ stop loss zone to go bullish in the pair to the roof zone, around 1.5700.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_3.gif
Support and Resistance levels for today
Posted on June 24, 2008 at 14:28 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
PAIRActualSupp 1 Supp 2Res 1Res 2EUR/USD1.55651.55281.55001.55871.5620GBP/USD1.96691.96551.96231.97001.9735AUD/USD0.95340.95180.94870.95540.9576USD/CHF1.03991.03671.03341.04221.0455USD/JPY107.92107.70107.25108.15108.41USD/CAD1.01641.01301.00981.01941.0223
Starting the day
Posted on June 24, 2008 at 13:32 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, welcome to a new day in forex market! Due to some problems with my internet provider, I haven´t been able to be here earlier, but still greenback continues moving in quite tight zones against most rivals, ahead of the outcome of the FED interest rate meeting tomorrow, in my believe, the only fundamental that can change market trends these days; today it will be better to say to define a trend, since the past two weeks majors have been mostly moving sideways.
Today, we have just one more fundamental new to take care of, at 10:00 East time, the US Consumer Confidence for June, expected 57.0 from a previous month reading of 57.2.
Let’s see what charts have to say. Have a great trading day!
USD/JPY Levels to watch
Posted on June 23, 2008 at 16:28 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair seems bullish in 4 hours charts, giving probable continuation signals, yet has a really tough resistance at 108.06. To the downside, the pair could complete a pullback to a 4 hours descendant trend line broken earlier,in the zone of 107.65. Ten pips away from any of both (108.16 to the upside, 107.56 to the downside) the pair could gain momentum in the next two hours.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb_1.gif
USD quickly recovering as gold falls
Posted on June 23, 2008 at 14:59 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
in the past hour, gold falls fom 903 to nearly 875, giving dollar a helping hand against other majors. If 868 gives up, Gold could continue falling, turning majors bearish agaisnt greenback.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gold_thumb.gif Take notice of the key support and resistance levels published earlier.
Grabbing pips on GBP/USD
Posted on June 23, 2008 at 14:28 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair continues falling yet find a floor around 1.9600. Looking quite over sold in smaller charts, the pair could easily correct to the zone around 1.9635 as also momentum indicator looks exhausted in hourly charts. Next support zone is aroudn 1.9588, and is unlikely the pair will break it today. If does, the zone around 1.9560 should be strong enough to hold.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb_1.gif
Supports and Resistances
Posted on June 23, 2008 at 11:12 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
PairActualSupp1 Supp2Res 1Res2EUR/USD1.55251.55001.54601.55601.5590GBP/USD1.96551.96241.95881.96751.9710AUD/USD0.95230.95050.94860.95450.9568USD/CHF1.04301.04041.03701.04681.0506USD/JPY107.66107.40107.12107.84108.10USD/CAD1.01621.01371.01001.01941.0218
Confidence fall in Euro zone
Posted on June 23, 2008 at 10:18 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The IFO business confidence survey falls to 101.3 from 103.5, while the Manufacturing PMI breaks under the 50.0 level printing 49.1. Despite is not considered a first line report, 50.0 is the key level between growth (above) and economic desaceleration (under).
Technically speaking, the pair is approaching to a tough congestion zone, between 1.5490 and 1.5505 that won’t be easy to break: consider a bullish rebound around it, with a tight stop under 1.5480, targeting a recovery to the zone around 1.5550.
If the pair managed to confirm under 1.5490, previous view is denied, and we could see a continuation to the zone around 1.5460.
Starting the day
Posted on June 23, 2008 at 9:54 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market! Last week dollar fell against it’s major rivals, been the GBP the one that more ground wined, yet the rally is not ready to last: there are bigger chances that the overall state of the economy in the UK will continue deteriorating, pushing the Pound down.
Anyway, majors traded mostly in ranges against dollar, as traders wait this week data to help define the greenback destiny: this Wednesday’s FED decision about rates, could surely bring back the missing action.
Today we onlyhave the only important fundamental report of today, the German IFO Survey for June, about Business Climate (Expected 102.5 Previous 103.5), Current Assessment (Expected 109.0 Previous 110.1) and Expectations (Expected 96.3 Previous 97.3); as you can see the three number are expected worst than the previous month, so if the readings come out to the downside, Euro will probably fall against it’s rivals.
Trading opportunities
Posted on June 20, 2008 at 16:15 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Gbp is gainning fast against dollar, and will probably continue rallying: above 1,9783 the pair could break today’s high and run to 1,9800/10 zone, and if pass to the strong congestion zone around 1.9830.
Eur/Usd is fighting the 61.8% of a Fibo rally in 4 hours charts. The level should resist and give an interesting rebound of around 30 pips, as long as 1.5660 remains intact.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_2.gif
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remains unbroken. EUR/USD trying to break
Posted on June 19, 2008 at 14:12 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/usd has been trapped in rage for the past two days. It has a strong support zone around 1.5460. For a support to be consider broken, and more one this strong, we need at least a 30 minutes candle opening 8/10 pips under the mentioned support. In that case, the pair could gain good momentum and run to next support zone around 1,5425. Technically the pair is giving signal in 4 hours charts, with momentumn crossing upside down the 100 line, while price remains under the 20 SMA.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb_1.gif
USD/JPY Short term Analysis
Posted on June 19, 2008 at 12:07 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Japanese yen is recovering ground after falling to 107,42. If you take a look at this 30 minutes charts, you can see the pair has failed to break above 107,92 a tough 4 hours resistance level, also the 50% Fibonacci rally 108,42/107,42, while CCI is reentering the 160 level, suggesting more bearish in the short term; the pair, as all pairs do, has a particular behavior: in this case, always “takes a rest” in the zone between .60 and .50: As long as 107,90 remains intact, the pair should approach to that level in the next 2 or 3 candles.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/yen_thumb.gif
Global news
Posted on June 19, 2008 at 11:32 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
A friend of mine send me the link to this articles, and I believe it’s worth paying attention to both of them. Surely, market conditions won´t change today, not tomorrow. But we use to say, that when market remains in ranges too long is because something big is cooking, and the range break will trigger bigger and stronger rallies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/16/bcnecb116.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
Do you like trading fundamentals?
Posted on June 19, 2008 at 10:41 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
GBP Retail sales came far better than expected, triggering GBP up against most rivals. However the greenback is stronger against all other currencies, so… where to go with GBP/USD? Quoting right now around 1.9703, the key level will be 1.9720: above this, the pair could easily continue to the zone around 1.9740, before starting a correction.
Under 1.9580, the pair will return first to the zone around 1.9560 and if pass, to 1.9535.
Two conditions: wait one more 15 minutes candle to enter the market, give some minutes market players to diggest the new; two, use tight stop losses.
Starting the day
Posted on June 19, 2008 at 10:18 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good Morning, welcome to a new day in fx market!
Greenback fell against major rivals yesterday, yet still stuck to range trading, part due to a lack of major data releases. A decline in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields, and crude oil prices next to historical maximums pushed the american dollar to an intraday low versus the yen during the New York session and down versus the euro. But was GBP the one wirh a stronger recuperation, after breaking by the end of American session, above 1,9600.
Still, the American currencyremanins trapped in quite narrow ranges ahead of the FED meeting next week when market players are expecting a clear monetary policy outlook.
Today we have the following news, East Time:
04:30 GBP Retail Sales MoM (Expected -0.1% Previous -0.2%)
04:30 GBP Retail Sales YoY (Previous 4.1% Expected 4.2%)
08:30 US Initial Claims 06/14 (Previous 384K)
10:00 US Leading Indicators May (Expected 0.0% Previous 0.1%)
10:00 US Philadelphia Fed Jun (Expected -12.0 Previous –15.6)
Trades update
Posted on June 18, 2008 at 16:57 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
GBP/USD rechached the propossed target giving a quick 25/30 pips trade, while taking proffits here in 1,5510 in EUR/USD could be a good idea as the pair continues moving in slow motion today.
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Euro remains uncertain agaisnt greenback., let’s see if it could give us more clear definitions after the news.
Eur/Usd stuck to 1,5500 between rates
Posted on June 17, 2008 at 13:41 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Euro/dollar seems quite comfortable here, unable to catch a certain direction, as both Central banks are pointinng to rate hikes in the near term. While US Treasury Secretary Paulson afirmmed last week that they are ready to use any tool aviable to see a stronger dollar, ECB President, Mr Trichet’s policy is out of discussion: Europe is worried about inflation, not growth, and despite rates have been unchanged for the last months, today a cut is out of question.
While most fundamental news are usually noise in the market, meaning they are not able to change the dominant trend, rates movements certainly are out of this: they are in fact, the strongest support for a trend change in currency market, these days.
Looking at bigger charts, in this case a weekly one that could help us to define a longer term trend, we have from a technical point of view not only an engulfing with previous week close, but momemtum about to give a strong bearish signal. However, the zone around 1,5280 is a very strong support that the pair must break and confirm, before continuing in that direction.
To the upside, the pair has a descendant trend line, this week around 1,5800 that also needs a break through and a later confirmation to give a bullish continuation to the pair.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/eur_thumb.gif
Meanwhile in the shorter term, the pair needs to break the range 1.5460/1.5520 to get some momemtum for the rest of the day.
GBP free fall
Posted on June 17, 2008 at 12:26 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
GBP continues falling across the board after CPI publication, that rose beyond expectations, reduccing chances of new rate cuts in the near future (used till now,to solve the rest of the economic issues of the country); agaisnt Usd the pair seems quite over soll in smaller charts: next support levels will be at 1,9488 and the zone around 1.9460, also Gann number where we could expect an interesting rebound, if reached.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp_thumb.gif
Meanwhile JPY is still unable to confirm above the channel roof with a candle openning, so I guess we´ll have to wait a bit more there.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on June 17, 2008 at 11:22 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair continues bullish and seems ready for a new upside run. As you can see in the chart, is breaking through a descendant channel roof. A canddle opening above this line, could trigger a 50 pips rally (the heigh of the channel) after completing a pullback to the broken line. You can also follow it in 30 minutes charts.
Both, Momentum and CCI are pointing to the upside too, so it’s seems a great trading oportunitty. Stop loss should be placed around 8/10 pips under the channel roof.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy%201%20hour_thumb.gif
Key Levels for today
Posted on June 17, 2008 at 11:04 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
PairActualRes 1Res 2Supp1 Supp2 Eur/Usd1,54771,55281,55601,54501,5432Gbp/Usd1,95901,96201,96501,95571,9528Aud/Usd0,94070,94380,94650,93830,9350Usd/Chf1,04281,04451,04811,03791,0338Usd/Jpy108,08108,38108,65107,70107,46Usd/Cad1,02001,02481,02901,01751,0140
London opening
Posted on June 17, 2008 at 10:26 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good Morning, welcome to a new day in forex market! Greenback started the day weak against most rivals, yet not completely defined for the rest of the day: key resistance/support levels remain unbroken while we have a number of fundamental news that can put noise on the market, starting in a few minutes with England GBP:a higher than expected reading could trigger the Pound to new bullish rallies.
4:30 GBP CPI y/y (Exp. 3.2% Prev. 3.0%) and Core CPI y/y (Exp. 1.5% Prev. 1.4%)
5:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Exp. -42.4 Prev. -41.4) Euro Zone Economic Sentiment (Exp. -43.9 Prev. -43.6)
5:00 EUR Trade Balance (Exp. -0.5B Prev. -2.4B)
8:30 USD Housing Starts (Exp. 0.99M Prev. 1.03M) and Building Permits (Exp. 0.96M Prev. 0.98M)
8:30 USD PPI m/m (Exp. 1.0% Prev. 0.2% and Core PPI m/m (Exp. 0.2% Prev. 0.4%)
8:30 USD Current Account (Exp. -173B Prev. -173B)
9:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Exp. 79.7% Prev. 79.7%)
In a few minutes I will updating the key support and resistance levels for today.
Have a great trading day!
Majors update
Posted on June 16, 2008 at 17:42 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/Usd reached the 1,5520 level only to quickly rebound from there, and despite the slow motion, the pair remains bullish in smaller charts; only under 1.5454 we could see greenback recover some ground.
Gbp/Usd remains also bullish, as the pair is unable to break the 23.6% Fibonacci level (see the chart); above today’s maximum there are still chances for a run to the zone of 1.9710, while only at least a 1 hour candle oppening under the mentioned level could start a correction
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/gbp%201%20hr_thumb.gif
Usd/Jpy remains above 108.10 after a failed break that reached the 107.90 zone: moving sidewaysat this hour, if the pair remains above 108,05/10, we could see it returning to 108,30/35-
Meanwhile Canadian continues strenghtening following Oil, that traded all day long close to the historical maximum. looking over sold in smaller charts, we could see a correction in the next hours, to the zone around 1,0240, as long as 1,0193 remains intact.
Bad news in US trigger soft bearish rally
Posted on June 16, 2008 at 14:46 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Empire State Business Conditions Index come out –8.6 against –1.5 expected and –3.2 previous, triggering a dollar bearish rally, and mayors are trying to break through the key points mentioned earlier, with GPB remaining the strongest currency at the moment. Eur/usd is ready to test 1,5510/20 zone, next resistance zone if it is able to remain above 1,5480, while Japanese Yen is adressing to the mentioned 107,80/70 zone. Anyway things are happening quite slow today.
Technical issues
Posted on June 16, 2008 at 13:47 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
After having some technical issues with the blog actualization, here we are!
Technically speaking, GBP seems to be the stronger currency at this time: the GBP/USd is testing the 4 hours 200 EMA around 1.9650, and we know majors usually respect this EMA at least in the first attempt; however a candlle openning above this EMA could trigger a bullish continuation to the next strong resistance zone around 1,9710.
Eur/usd needs to break above 1,5483 to continue ralling up, but doesn’t seems likely yet, although indicators are showing good chances of a bullish continuation. Only under 1,5420 the bullish could lose steam.
Japanese Yen continues weak and so, the pairs involving the currency remains bullish. But take a look at this 1 hour USD/JPY chart: the pair has broken an ascendnat trend line, and CCI is cutting the 0 line, announcing a probable bearish correction: I believe under 108,10 we would have a good entry point to the zone around 107,80.
http://forex.typepad.com/fxadvisor/WindowsLiveWriter/jpy_thumb.gif
Anyway, seems we are having a quiet monday with not enough volatily to catch quick runs. We will have to wait for the US Sesion open to see if market
turns more interesting.
Supp and Res levels for the next hours
Posted on June 16, 2008 at 12:56 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
PAIRActualRes 1Res 2Supp 1Supp 2 EUR/USD1,54301,54551,54801,53941,5363GBP/USD1,95811,96161,96541,95601,9525AUD/USD0,94020,94140,94570,93700,9327USD/CHF1,04561,04701,05101,04311,0395USD/JPY108,32108,59108,81108,10107,70USD/CAD1,02801,03001,03301,02421,0205
Fundamental News for Today
Posted on June 16, 2008 at 10:22 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
5:00 EURCore CPI 1.8% 1.6%(high relevance)
5:00EURCPI 3.6% 3.3%(high relevance)
The higher oil prices, are affecting growth and triggering inflation all around the world. A higher
CPI could be undestood as a future rate hike in Europe, and right now, Euro is already gainning
ground previous to the release. Above 1.5460, first resistance for today, the pair has pretty good
chances of continuing to the zone around 1.5490/1.5510.
8:30amUSDEmpire State Business Conditions Index -1.5 -3.2 (medium relevance)
9:00amUSDTIC Net Long-Term Transactions 63.0B 80.4B (medium relevance)
10:00amUSDFed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
The doors are open
Posted on June 16, 2008 at 9:59 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Hello fellow traders! Is an incredible honor to be here for you: for the ones that doesn’t know me, let me tell you: my name is Valeria Bednarik, Val from now on, I’m about to be 39 years old, and live in Buenos Aires, Argentina. I have studied Economics all my life, specializing in financials and cost managements at my beginnings, yet feeling all the time something was missing in my working life. By 2002 I discovered forex, filled the hole, fell in love, and never look back. Like many of you, (hope not that much) I have been scammed with forex; like many others, I had lost money in forex market, traded by me or others; that’s when I decided to get a serious education. And for the last 5 years, that’s what I’ve been doing: studding, learning, working as hard as I can to become a professional.
Today, FXstreet.com is giving me the chance to share with you my experience, and my knowledge, and I’m deeply grateful, because if today I’m here, is because someone else did the same for me; I can promise you all just two things: first, I will always be complete honest with you: I will give you an objective, real time technical and fundamental point of view of market conditions; second, I will do my best through this blog, to help you find your way in what I believe is an amazing adventure, the forex world.
As always, I’m open to hear ideas, suggestions, doubts and even critics: I want us all to enjoy being here.
My mentor, my teacher and one of my dearest friends says: HONEST AND SMART EFFORT ALWAYS GIVES GOOD RESULTS.
I wish this to be the leitmotiv of this Weblog. Welcome!
Breaking News: New Blogger for the Advisor Blog will be presented soon!
Posted on June 13, 2008 at 16:06 in Uncategorized by admin4 Comments »
The search for a new talent among FXstreet.com fellow traders, partners and colleagues is almost finished. The Advisor Blog will be back very soon with a new face behind the market’s alerts and tips.
In this new stage, the blog’s philosophy will be exactly the same than before: offering information and price actions to help traders around the world. We also expect the new blogger to stamp his mark on every post to make The Advisor Blog the most instructive and popular possible for traders of all levels.
We also want to take the opportunity to introduce you the new blogs recently added at FXstreet.com:
[*]Phil Newton is offering Tips & general help to make you a better trader in his Trade Setups Blog.[*]Dr. S. Sivaraman is covering the markets movements and the Operators’ intentions in his FX Market readings Blog.Enjoy them!
FXstreet.com Staff
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Forexologyhttp://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/sunil-mangwani-author-photoMedium.jpeg Aiming for the trader's success by creating awareness of the 3M's: Mind, Money & Method by Sunil Mangwani, CEO at FibForex123.
Posted on April 2, 2009 at 11:28 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
A Wolfe wave is a reversal pattern and a very successful one at that. It is basically a 5 point structure, and like the other 5 point pattern – the harmonic pattern – It is precisely defined, very specific in structure and gives excellent Risk-to-Reward ratios.
We had a look at a Wolfe wave setup in a previous post – http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/2009/03/15/wolfe-waves/
andam enclosing 2 Wolfe waves that we traded in our live trading room.
The rules remain the same – (for a bearish Wolfe wave)
1.) Once the points 1, 2 & 3 have been identified, we wait for the point 4 of the pattern to confirm to the conditions.
2.) Once point 4 forms, we can expect price to rally up for a last thrust to point 5, which usually forms at the Fib projection 127.2 / 161.8 (of 3-4)
Thus one can trade this up move with confidence as the price objectives are precisely set.
3.) Once price finds resistance at this fib level, thus completing the last leg of the pattern, we can expect price to change trend to the downside with great momentum.
For the price objective of this down move, we plot a line from the high of point 1 to the low of point 4.
Price will often come down to meet this line which becomes a very precise target.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/04/chfjpyww-300x180.jpg
One can simply reverse the rules for a bullish pattern and as we can see, this pattern is quite accurate
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/04/goldww-300x181.jpg
Sunil.
Harmonics on Gold…again
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 11:50 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
I am enclosing a current scenario on the Daily time frame of Gold.
Please bear with me, if it sounds confusing, as mixing 2 patterns is not easy. But I intend to prove the “Trade management” part….again, and this seems to be a perfect example in the making.
We have seen that Gold respects the Fib ratios quite precisely and hence we can trade some excellent harmonic patterns on it.
Wee are looking at a confluence of 2 different harmonic patterns, which would give us a high probability move.
But once again, we are not here to predict the price movement, but to simply follow it.
Hence we keep our levels fixed and wait for price to confirm, before we enter a trade.
One must remain flexible since the market will seldom move the way we expect it to.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/03/gold-harmonics-300x181.jpg
1.) We have a Bullish Gartley pattern in the making (the blue one)
Price seems to have found support on the “C” point of this pattern and if this support holds, then one can expect price to rally to complete the wave C-D…expected price objective- 980.00 (appr.)
2.) We have a second bearish Gartley pattern within it (the green one)
In this one, price seems to have found support on the “B” point of this pattern and if this support holds, then one can expect price to rally to complete the wave B-C…expected price objective- 945.00 (appr.)
Conclusion – Looking at the confluence of these 2 patterns, a price rally to 945.00 (appr) is a very high probability trade.
So, my trading bias would be towards a long trade.
One would wait for price to confirm the support at the present level, and only on a confirmation of some bullish momentum, we could think about longs to 944…and maybe 980.
If this support does not hold, then price could continue to the downside….and we are not in a trade. We have only lost the analysis time, but our capital is intact.
Then we look for more opportunities and once again, wait for price to confirm.
Sunil.
Flexibility in times of a failed pattern
Posted on March 15, 2009 at 9:42 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Having a disciplined approach to the markets simply means having a precise trading plan and following the plan to the ‘T’.
Now as a trader, one must remain flexible since the market will not always move the way we expect it to. This becomes contradictory & hence turns into a point of confusion.
Being flexible does not mean that one must abandon the discipline, but one must adapt one’s self to the changed situation.
Let’s take an example of an expected harmonic pattern which did not complete, and see how we must remain flexible.
I will go over the unfolding of the situation step by step to make things clearer –
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/03/gbpchf1-300x180.jpg
Step.1 – We had a price retracement at the precise 61.8 fib level (B retraced to 61.8 of X-A) which indicated that we have a strong possibility of a bullish Gartley pattern forming.
(Please refer to previous posts for identifying and classifying the different harmonic patterns)
At this stage, this price formation can also be considered as a bullish 1-2-3 pattern.
Step.2 - As traders, we are looking for trades with high probability and we don’t predict the price action. We set down our alternatives and follow price.
Since price found support at a precise fib levels (the 61.8 of ‘X-A’), we can expect a rally to the upside.
Alternative.1 – We can expect an up-move to form the bullish Gartley pattern, and expect price to find resistance at point ‘C’ of the pattern…and give another move down.
We consider the 78.6 Fib retracement level (of A-B) as an important level & so long as price remains below this level, we can expect a down move
Alternative.2 – Price could continue with the uptrend to fulfill the price objectives of the bullish 1-2-3 pattern.
Conclusion – The probability of price rallying to the 78.6 Fib level (of A-B) is very high & one would enter a long trade till this level….at least.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/03/gbpchf2-300x177.jpg
As we can see, price rallied past the 78.6 Fib level (of A-B), which negated the Gartley pattern. Hence one would expect price to continue with the up moves and fulfill the price objectives of the bullish 1-2-3 pattern.
Every different situation demands an appropriate Fib ratio and we always use the Fib Expansions to determine the price objectives of a 1-2-3 pattern.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/03/gbpchf3-300x181.jpg
And price found resistance precisely at the FE 100 level.
Hence one would have managed the trade to get some nice long moves, simply by being flexible as per the situation.
One can call this the “If-Then” approach.
If price does this, then I would do that & if price does that, then I would do this.
But again, this “If-Then” situation has to have precise rules set down, which enable us to manage the trade to its logical conclusion.
Sunil.
Sunil.Wolfe waves
Posted on March 15, 2009 at 9:36 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Let us have a look at a different pattern, other than the regular harmonic patterns that we follow.
This is a pattern which we trade quite successfully in our trading room and like the harmonic pattern; it is precisely defined, very specific in structure and gives excellent Risk-to-Reward ratios.
The Wolfe wave is a reversal pattern, which forms a 5 point wave structure. It has a very simple 3 step identification process and one can trade within the legs of this pattern…often quite accurately.
I am enclosing an ideal bearish Wolfe wave on the Cad/Jpy.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/03/wolfe-wave-300x180.jpg
As we can see, it is very specific in terms of Fibonacci ratios.
1.) Once the points 1, 2 & 3 have been identified, we wait for the point 4 of the pattern to confirm to the conditions.
2.) Once point 4 forms, we can expect price to rally up for a last thrust to point 5, which usually forms at the Fib projection 127.2 / 161.8 (of 3-4)
Thus one can trade this up move with confidence as the price objectives are precisely set.
3.) Once price finds resistance at this fib level, thus completing the last leg of the pattern, we can expect price to change trend to the downside with great momentum.
For the price objective of this down move, we plot a line from the high of point 1 to the low of point 4.
Price will often come down to meet this line which becomes a very precise target.
Sunil.
An interesting new topic on Monday 2nd March (10.00 GMT)
Posted on February 28, 2009 at 8:00 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
It has always been my endeavor to make the traders aware of the “other factors” involved in trading.
I would call these factors of “Money Management factor”; “Mind factor”; “Trade management factor” as “Other” factors, since most traders are not even aware of the importance of these….unfortunately.
With this in mind, we had planned a special topic for the ‘Free access open day’ held on Fxstreet on Thursday 26th Feb.
Unfortunately, due to technical reasons we could not complete the entire session.
Hence I am planning to repeat this same topic on the free webinar that we regularly have on Mondays on FxStreet.
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=09153e3c-e3cc-4584-9a20-852e76567d6d
Hence this will be the new topic on Monday 2nd March (10.00 GMT)
Technical analysis is NOT the trading plan.
Use the tools of technical analysis as a path to manage your trades.
A Trading Plan is often the thin line between success and failure in the markets.
Not having a plan simply means that the trader is entering market blindfolded. The Trading Plan must incorporate the 3M’s (Money, Mind & method…in that order).
In this webinar, we will attempt to use “Method” to enable us to prepare an effective trading plan.
It would be great to see everyone there.
Sunil.
Recording of “Flag pattern”
Posted on February 28, 2009 at 7:42 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Hello everyone,
We had recorded a webinar which we conducted on FxStreet on the “Flag pattern”.
The recording is available for download in the ‘Transcripts’ section of FxStreet, along with thye PDF of the lesson -
http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2009/02/the-flag-chart-pattern.html
Sunil.
Am back -:)
Posted on February 28, 2009 at 7:39 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani1 Comment »
Hello everyone. I have been out of the cyber space in the last 2 weeks due to technical issues.
The hard disk of my laptop crashed….in short my life crashed -:). Then my back up PC had some technical issues and in addition, we had a major breakdown with the internet server.
Whew…all at one time -:((
I managed to recover over 80% of my data, and am in the process of organising things again. But I could not post anything here, as I had lost my login links and of course, was completely out of touch with the markets.
We are back on track now and we will start with the harmonics once again.
Sunil.
Follow up to the Usd/Jpy Butterfly
Posted on February 11, 2009 at 14:13 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani3 Comments »
This is with reference to a question, on how to calculate the price objectives of the “Butterfly” pattern. Following up from the previous post
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/2009/02/08/a-harmonic-pattern-at-the-time-of-nfp-data/
we can see that price movement has gone in the anticipated direction…so far.
The harmonic patterns have very specific price objectives, but as a trader one must manage the trade to lock in profits at every step.
Hence we maintain the correct technical levels leading to the ultimate price objective…just in case price decides to go against us.
The following chart shows the 3 price objectives, calculated from the reversal level “D”. These should be used to manage the trade efficiently.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/02/jpy3-300x153.gif
Target.1 - The measured move distance of wave “B-C”.
(This has been clearly explained in the previous posthttp://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/2009/02/08/technical-analysis-is-a-path-to-enable-us-to-reach-our-goal/ )
Target.2 - The fib projection 78.6 of wave “A-D”
Target.2 - The fib projection 127.2 / 161.8 of wave “A-D”…which is the ultimate target of a harmonic pattern.
Once again, one can never be completely sure of achieving all the targets. As traders, we are here to make money & I would keep taking profits when the market gives it….and yet remain in the trade for further moves.
After all, that is what trade management is all about.
Sunil.
A Harmonic pattern at the time of NFP data????
Posted on February 8, 2009 at 17:41 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani3 Comments »
Trading the NFP data, or for that matter any important fundamental new release, is not something I do…and definitely not something that I would recommend.
I believe some traders swear by it, but I look at it as something of a gamble, as there are too many odds stacked against you.
And If I want to gamble, I would rather go to a casino -:))
Anyway, it’s just a personal opinion & let’s get down to the subject at hand.
I was looking at the USD/JPY on the 4hr, where a harmonic pattern was under way and the price movement, post-NFP pushed it to the required fib level.
Now again let me clarify, that this was not traded.
I wanted to put this as another example of how price respects technical levels….fib levels, previous support/resistance levels, pivot levels, and even dynamic trend line levels.
Basically I want to infer 2 points from this example -
1.) Whatever is the reason that causes price to move (the NFP data in this case), we can estimate the extent of the move. Now doesn’t that give you an edge??
2.) Price action always gives you clues & you do not need indicators. Now this does not mean that one should not use indicators, but always use them as a secondary factor…rather than a leading requirement. If only one can take the efforts to study the price structure…and understand the logic behind the forming of chart patterns…one will be ahead of the pack.
So, let’s get down to the trade.
I was looking at a bearish Butterfly pattern, where the first 3 waves had formed at the correct fib levels.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/02/jpy1-300x151.gif
As we can see, the wave B-C had formed at the fib 61.8 and it was time for the NFP data on the first Friday of the month.
It would have been “make or break” for the pattern & there was no way that one could estimate that price would complete the last wave C-D….which it did.
Once again, the point here is that the sharp moves due to the NFP data, found resistance precisely at the Fib levels of “D” -
(a) The 127.2 % fib projection of wave “X-A”
AND
(b) The 161.8 fib projection of wave “B-C”
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/02/jpy2-300x152.gif
Now, tell me that Fibs don’t work -:)))
Now this completes the bearish Butterfly and one would expect price to change trend to the downside, to fulfill the price targets of this harmonic pattern.
But, repeating my Mantra once again.
We never assume anything & wait for price to confirm.
There are certain rules and conditions for a proper entry into a harmonic pattern & we wait for these conditions to fulfill.
The beginning of the new week could bring some surprises & new moves, so we wait.
Once again, I wanted to show this setup, as an example of how price respects fib levels…regardless of the circumstances that cause the price movement.
Sunil.
Technical analysis is a path to enable us to reach our goal.
Posted on February 8, 2009 at 17:37 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Let’s have a look at a harmonic pattern that did not work.
Things don’t always go as planned, but the technical tools that we use should give us an edge in this business of probabilities.
The following harmonic pattern did not fulfill the target objectives…which we could have seen coming.
GBP/USD -1hr.
We could identify a bearish harmonic pattern and would have expected price to turn down to fulfill the bearish targets.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/02/gbp1-300x153.gif
Now, looking at the longer term picture, price was in a pretty strong bullish trend and thus one would be very careful of bucking the trend.
But then, the harmonic patterns are pretty accurate…right?
So, we would take the trade, but with a conservative entry.
The thumb rule for price objectives of a harmonic pattern says that the minimum price objective is often a measured move….of the wave B-C. (Marked as the blue line in the chart, and plotted on the high of “D”)
So, one would wait to see if price has the momentum to break this level. If it does, then one would expect further bearish moves and target the 127.2 fib projection of wave A-D.
But then, look what happened -
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/02/gbp2-300x152.gif
Price found support at precisely that level…thus keeping us out of a bad trade.
This brings me to a very important point.
Technical analysis is NOT the goal of a trading plan.
One must use the tools of technical analysis as a path to enable us to reach our goal…..of becoming a profitable trader.
This simply means that we use technical analysis to manage our trades better.
As we did in this example.
We could plan our trade as per the rules of technical analysis.
Sunil.
Older posts »
Posted on February 3, 2009 at 13:29 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani2 Comments »
Gold does not seem to be co-operating with me recently -:)
It is in a consolidating phase & not much patterns forming.
On the daily time frame, we have a bullish 5 wave structure, which tells me that one should remain long on this…till we get some bearish indications.
Keeping in tune with that, I have been following a bullish flag pattern on the 1hr time frame, which again, seems to be in a consolidation.
Am waiting for this bullish price objectives to be fulfilled and looking for a trigger to re-enter a long…if possible.
In any case, let us have a look at the flag pattern.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/02/gold-flag-300x147.gif
The down sloping channel (the flag) has formed quite well and price had broken out of the flag channel to the upside. We are looking at a pullback, which has not yet negated the bullish flag pattern.
For the expected price objectives, we measure the distance of the Flag pole & plot it on the level from where price breaks out of the channel.
Price is expected to travel this distance to fulfill the price objectives.
In this case, the expected price target is appr. 960.00, but we can expect some more moves to the downside, before price resumes the uptrend.
So, we remain bullish & wait for a proper entry.
If we dont get a trade, well we can always look at something else -:)
Sunil.
Harmonic patterns…Elliot waves…price structure
Posted on February 3, 2009 at 13:11 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Let us have a look at an interesting situation that we have been following on the Eur/Cad.
The daily time frame has formed a harmonic pattern - a bullish Gartley.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/02/eurcad-300x148.gif
One can see in the chart, the waves of the harmonic pattern have formed with the precise fib ratios…so far.
Now let’s put a twist to this pattern.
If we take the current wave “C-D”, and examine it in detail on the 4hr time frame, we can see that this wave has formed a perfect bearish Elliot wave.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/02/eurcad1-300x148.gif
Now, keeping things very simple, we know that if we have a 5 wave structure, it indicates the direction of the existing trend.
In this case, it means that the overall trend is down, which puts a spanner in the works of the harmonic pattern.
So, again, at the risk of repeating myself…..as a trader one must remain flexible and follow price…instead of trying to predict it.
Let’s examine the alternatives that we have here -
Option.1 - The bearish Elliot wave.
The thumb rule for the Elliot wave says that after completing a 5 wave structure, price should give an ABC correction to the upside, which usually travels to 50% to 61.8% of the entire Elliot wave.
Price then resumes the downtrend again.
This down trend could continue deeper or it completes the harmonic pattern and finds support at the D level. (This has yet to be fulfilled)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/02/copy-of-eurcad1-300x148.gif
In any case, if price finds resistance at the expected level, we should be looking for shorts.
Option.2 - Price does not follow any of our analysis & keeps going up.
Well, we are not looking for longs over here & we may miss out of some long moves…if at all.
In that case, we have only spent some time in the analysis…but have not lost anything from our capital.
There will always be other opportunities.
Sunil.
Classifying the harmonic patterns
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 16:19 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani4 Comments »
With reference to the harmonic patterns that we discuss in the FxStreet webinars, there have been a lot of questions on how to classify the different harmonic patterns.
I had put up a post earlier on the same subject and am repeating it again for reference.
Classification of the different harmonic patterns….the way I see them.
Now, I have not come across this kind of classification anywhere & I could be wrong in my conclusions.
But over the number of years that I have been studying the Fibonacci ratios & harmonic patterns, I have observed these subtle differences.
First and foremost, let us understand what a harmonic pattern is.
A harmonic pattern is simply -
An impulsive wave (X to A) followed by two corrective waves (A to B and C to D) which ultimately gives rise to a larger impulsive wave (the price targets)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/basic-harmonic-pattern-300x187.gif
The important points that one should follow are -
[*]The retracement of X-A to point B usually identifies the kind of harmonic pattern that should ultimately form.[*]Point C is generally the weak link in the pattern. The retracement of A-B to point C could form at any fib ratio, right from 0.382 to 0.886.[*]Point D is the ultimate confirmation point of a harmonic pattern. ‘D’ will always form at a confluence of 2 fib levels (depending on the type of pattern) and these fib levels are very accurate. The 2 fib ratios (the Retracement of X-A AND the Projection of B-C) form precisely at the expected levels.Let’s have a look at the specifics of the retracement ‘B’ (of the move from X to A) –
The Bat pattern -
In this pattern the first corrective wave to ‘B’ is a shallow correction, and retraces to 38.2 to 50.0. In that case, the second corrective wave to ‘D’ should form at 0.886 of X-A.
(Note: Most of the times ‘B’ forms at the 38.2 level.)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/bat-pattern-299x158.gif
The Gartley pattern -
In this pattern the first corrective wave to ‘B’ is a specific correction to 61.8 of X-A. In that case, the second corrective wave to ‘D’ should form at 0.786 of X-A.
(Note: This is a very specific pattern and the two corrective waves will always form at the 61.8 and 78.6 levels precisely.)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/gartley-pattern-300x160.gif
The Butterfly pattern –
In this pattern the first corrective wave to ‘B’ is a deep correction, and retraces to 78.6 of X-A. In that case, the second corrective wave to ‘D’ should form at 1.272 of X-A.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/butterfly-pattern1-300x159.gif
You will notice that the location of ‘D’ is based on the fib ratios of X-A, and the fib ratios of B-C have not been taken into consideration.
This is because I have observed that the B-C projections may vary from one fib level to another, but the fib ratios of X-A always form at the precise levels.
Let us have a look at another harmonic pattern.
The Crab pattern -
This is a pattern which does not occur very frequently, and one can only identify it after the entire 5 wave structure has been completed.
This is because, unlike the previous patterns the first corrective wave to ‘B” is somewhat subjective. In fact, the identifying factor for this pattern is the second corrective wave to ‘D’ which is a very deep wave.
In this pattern the first corrective wave to ‘B’ could be anywhere from 38.2 to 61.8.
The second corrective wave, subsequently to ‘D’ is a deep wave & should form at 1.618 of X-A.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/crab-pattern-300x160.gif
Finally, some amount of discretion is required, since price will never behave exactly the way we expect.
But this classification has given me an edge for the anticipated price moves & I hope it does the same for you.
From my experience, I have seen that it is the Gartley & the Butterfly which occur more often & I would concentrate on these 2 patterns.
Sunil.
Sunil.Some more Elliot waves.
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 11:53 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
The previous bullish harmonic pattern that we anticipated on Gold did not complete and it was one of the losing trades that occurred.
The bearish move seems to have given rise to an Elliot wave and let’s examine it on the Daily chart.
These longer term patterns tend to give us a larger picture and one can estimate which part of the wave we are in.
Let us start with the weekly time frame.
Referring to a previous post of 14th Dec’08 “Is price movement random?” we had seen the fib relations on the weekly Gold chart.
I am enclosing the same chart for reference
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/gold-weekly-300x152.gif
As of today, we can see that price did find resistance a Fib level of 78.6% and hence we can expect some down moves.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/gold-weekly2-300x146.gif
Going down to the Daily chart to examine the price action in detail, we can identify a Bullish Elliot wave. The corrective wave.4 seems to be in the process & we can expect some further down moves.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/elliot-wave-300x147.gif
Looking at patterns within patterns, we can see that the corrective wave2 was also a bullish harmonic pattern - the Gartley.
Plus we had a bearish regular divergence at the end of wave.3.
Coming back to the Elliot wave, the thumb rule for the wave.4 is that it should never enter the territory of wave.1. We can thus take this level as a barrier zone and expect some support here.
If price finds support, then we can expect the last impulsive wave5 to form.
If price breaks this level to the downside, then it negates the Elliot wave and we can expect further down moves.
Let me repeat my “mantra” again.
We use the technical tools to give us the best probable trade. But we don’t try and predict the price action. We wait for price to confirm & then enter the trade.
In this case, the wave.5 of the Elliot wave will get confirmed only if price finds support at the designated levels.
So, we wait.
Speaking of Elliot waves, let us have a look at a perfect bullish Elliot wave on the AUD/USD 4hr.
It’s always easy to look back at the situation and say, ‘oh we had a nice setup’.
Let me clarify that this pattern was not traded but was identified by one of our members “Artur” and its worth looking at the way price respects the Fib ratios…which subsequently leads to a pattern being completed.
The chart says it all & I don’t think I need to add any comments for it.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/aud-elliot-wave-300x146.gif
Sunil.
Gold again…and a new Harmonic pattern
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 20:01 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani5 Comments »
We keep coming back to Gold and i think I am going re-name my blog as “Goldology” -:)))
But somehow, Gold seems to respect the Fib levels (and subsequently the harmonic patterns) very precisely and frequently and hence we can identify more setups on this.
Lets have a look at a certain harmonic pattern which has completed on the 4 hr time frame.
For those who are familiar with the harmonic patterns, we know that each pattern - the Gartley, Butterfly, Bat & Crab are identified by price forming at certain fib levels.
Now there a pattern that I have come across quite frequently, which does not fit into any of the above mentioned patterns.
It can losely classified as a Gartley, since it is most similar to the Gartley.
And like all other harmonics, it has very specific parameters which makes it stand apart.
So should we call it as the “Sunil” pattern????
Now, thats a thought -:))))
But till the time we christian this pattern, let us call it as the XADE pattern -
As we have mentioned earlier, a harmonic pattern is nothing but an impulsive wave, followed by 2 corrective waves, which form at precise fib levels.
For the XADE pattern, the two corrective waves (A-B and C-D) always form at the 50.0% and the 78.6% of the initial impulsive wave (X-A)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/gold-xade-wave2-300x148.gif
This makes it similar to the Gartley, since the Gartley has the two corrective waves (A-B and C-D) always form at the 61.8% and the 78.6% of the initial impulsive wave (X-A).
But this is where the similarity ends.
For the XADE pattern, the price target is always the 127.2% of the wave A-D…..not more. not less
WHICH is usually equal to the impulsive wave X-A.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/gold-xade-target-300x149.gif
If we label the price objective as ‘E’, then the waves XA and DE are found to be similar….which is we labeled it as the XADE pattern.
Hence we can expect price to achieve the price objective (the 127.2 of A-D & the measured move X-A) and change trend from there.
This occurs with surprising frequency, but again….always let price confirm the moves and mange the trade to reduce the risks.
Now, if this price objective is fulfilled, we could be looking at the formation of a bearish Wolfe wave….but lets take things one step at a time.
Sunil.
PS - Suggestions for a name for this pattern are welcome -:)
Elliot wave on the EUR/USD daily
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 19:20 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Price seems to be in the process of completing a bullish Elliot wave on the EUR/USD daily time frame.
As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words, and the following charts should be self-explanatory.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/ewave2-300x148.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/ewave3-300x148.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/ewave4-300x148.gif
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/ewave5-300x150.gif
As always, I would suggest the same principle.
Even though a pattern may be perfect, there are no guarentees in trading.
Do not jump into a trade. Set your levels and always wait for price to confirm.
You may miss out a few trades in the bargain, but it will save you a lot of grief…and money -:))
Sunil.
A text book Gartley pattern
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 13:16 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Sometimes it’s uncanny as to how price respects the Fib levels…..and for that matter why?
Have a look at this bullish Gartley pattern on the daily time frame of the AUD/CHF
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/gartley-300x148.gif
One can see that each and every wave of this pattern has formed at the precise Fib levels of the Gartley.
Is there a reason why price reacts at such levels, and keeps going from one level to another to complete a pattern?
I don’t think one can give a proper explanation, as to why it happens.
But then, as traders, let us take advantage of the fact.
If we know that price has a high probability of respecting these levels, let us plan our trades in such a way, that we can get an edge.
Taking this particular example, once we had the pt. D form at a confluence of 2 fib levels…precisely, we could anticipate a reversal to the upside here.
Hence we prepare for long trades and define our price targets.
We must accept the fact that nothing works all the time, and however precise a pattern may be, there is every possibility that it could go wrong.
As traders, we are here to take profits, and hence one must take the profits off the table when price gives us the opportunity.
We can do that, only if we know the possible price targets.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2009/01/gartley-target-300x148.gif
The price objective of a Gartley pattern is always the Fib projection 127.2 & 161.8 of the wave A-D.
But we can define certain in between levels for taking profits.
One such level is a measured move distance of the wave B-C. If we add this distance to the low of D, it gives us an initial profit taking level.
And one can see that this level coincides with 2 other levels of resistance -
(a) The 78.6 fib level of the wave A-D.
(b) A previous level of resistance (as shown by the red line)
Since this becomes a strong level of resistance, we can expect some pause/consolidation/pullback in the price movement.
This could even turn into a reversal, which is precisely the reason that one must take profits.
Now, since the Gartley pattern has been quite precise, we have a fair expectation that price will fulfill the next targets.
Hence, we can plan our trades accordingly and still look for longs after any pullback to the downside.
If at all, price does not complete the other targets; we have still walked away with some profits.
And I would rather have small profits in my account, than being proved right all the time.
Sunil.
Merry Christmas
Posted on December 24, 2008 at 17:58 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani1 Comment »
Its Holiday time & take some time off for family and friends.
The markets will be here & we can all come back afresh after a well deserved break.
I wish each and everyone of you a “Merry Christmas” and may you have a joyous and profitable New Year ahead.
Sunil.
Recording of the Monthly webinar
Posted on December 24, 2008 at 17:57 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
You can download the video recording of the Monthly webinar topic “The 123 chart pattern” from the Transcripts section of FXstreet
http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2008/12/monthly-webinar-part-1-the-123-chart-pattern.html
It has also been put upon my website www.fibforex123.com
In addition, the PDF file of the same topic is also available for downloads from FXstreet
http://www.fxstreet.com/education/technical/the-123-chart-pattern/2008-12-22.html
as well as the “Free download” section on my website.
Sunil.
Euro and Gold.
Posted on December 21, 2008 at 19:06 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
We are looking at some long term harmonic patterns on the Eur/Usd Monthly time frame. We do know that Euro & Gold have a very strong correlation
(Refer to my article on Currency correlations - http://www.fxstreet.com/education/forex-basics/important-things-to-know-about-your-currencies/2008-11-11.html
Since we have been following Gold for some time now, it would be worth looking at the Euro for some similar movements.
Looking at the monthly chart of the Eur/Usd, let me first put up a chart image taken in the month of November.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/611euro-monthly1-300x166.gif
A strong support at the 78.6 fib level, had given us an indication of a possible harmonic pattern in the making.
Looking at the current situation, price seems to have found resistance at the 61.8 Fib level.
Now, even though the monthly bar of December has yet to close, we can look at this level as a strong resistance, since price had been rejected at this level previously (as seen by the blue horizontal line)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/2112euro-monthly2-300x148.gif
This does seem to be in tune with an expected down move in Gold.
But again, we don’t trade without any additional confirmations.
First & foremost, we should wait for the monthly bar to close, which means that we should wait till the end of the month.
If the monthly bar does not close higher, then we start planning for short trades & enter on confirmations.
But lets also play the “Devils Advocate”
There seems to be the possibility of a bullish hidden divergence forming. In that case, we could be looking at some strong up moves.
Maybe price has a nasty surprise in store for the year ending -J
In either case, we have a fair estimate of the extent of the move..
Sunil
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on December 21, 2008 at 19:00 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Referring back to the previous post of “Is price movement random?” we can see that Alternative.1 played out quite precisely -
I am repeating the chart and the lines from the previous post. (For reference)
Alternative.1 of a bearish Gartley pattern.
Looking at this chart, we can conclude that the wave B-C has completed and price should rally higher now to complete the wave C-D.
This means that we can expect some more rallies in this pattern.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/gold-daily3-300x154.gif
Looking at the current situation, we can see that price did rally & found resistance precisely at the 78.6 level (tell me that fibs don’t work -J) to complete the last wave of the Gartley pattern.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/gold-daily22-300x147.gif
The expected target of this bearish Gartley pattern would be the Fib projection of A-D and one would expect price to fulfill the targets.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/gold-daily31-300x147.gif
But, like always, we don’t just jump into a trade but wait for price to confirm the entries.
A correct entry into a Gartley is always the break of the mid point “B” of the pattern.
In this case, the “B” level is also a strong level of previous support/resistance AND price has now found support precisely at this level.
Hence we can take this as the ‘barrier’ level.
Only a convincing break of this level would give us the highly probable target of the 127 fib projection plotted on the chart.
Let me repeat my dialogue again -J
We don’t predict price……..we follow it.
Sunil.
The Monthly webinar on 18th Dec’08
Posted on December 21, 2008 at 18:56 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
We had an excellent response to the monthly webinars topics & I would sincerely like to thank each and everyone who attended it.
Just for reference, these were the 2 topics that were presented -
1.) Open session - The 1-2-3 chart pattern
A chart pattern is a distinct formation on a chart that creates a trading signal, or a sign of future price movements. Chartists use these patterns to identify current trends and trend reversals and to trigger buy and sell signals.
The 123 pattern is a reversal chart pattern which occurs very frequently and has a very high success ratio.
When the 123 pattern occurs at the end of trends and swings, they are an indication of a change in trend. They can also be found within a trading range, and they take place when the directional momentum of a trend is diminishing.
For any trading technique, one must understand its advantages and drawbacks.
Implementing the technique in the live markets is the crucial part and one must have a trading plan defining the precise entry, stop and exit levels.
2.) Premium session - The trend following 200 Moving Average strategy.
The 200 Moving Average strategy is a very easy to follow system which has a very high success ratio.
While the forex markets are highly trending markets, they tend to trend only 30% of the time, while 70% of the time is spent in a range.
Identifying and trading these trends would offer excellent profit potential.
This technique uses the two basic technical indicators – the 200 period Simple Moving Average & the Slow Stochastic to identify a trend valid across all time frames, and define precise points of entry and exit.
The sessions were highly interactive and we had interesting discussions on both the topics that we covered.
The first session of the 123 pattern was recorded, and it will be put up in the Transcripts section of FXstreet soon. I will also be putting up the recording on my website for downloads.
Also, as per the requests of a lot of attendees, I have put up the PDF of “The 1-2-3 chart pattern” on my website for free downloads.
This will be available on the FXstreet website too.
The PDF for “The trend following 200 Moving Average strategy” will be available in the ‘Reports’ section of the premium page.
I will put up the links here, once it has been done.
Once again, I want to thank all the attendees for making the sessions interactive & I look forward to conducting more of the same.
Sunil.
Monthly webinar on 18th Dec’08
Posted on December 17, 2008 at 12:38 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani4 Comments »
I will be conducting the monthly webinars on FXstreet on the 18th Dec 2008.
I will be covering 2 interesting topics in this 3 hour long session -
1.) Open session - http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=44e82cd1-3a8e-4991-a3c3-177cad1ce6be
The 1-2-3 chart pattern
A chart pattern is a distinct formation on a chart that creates a trading signal, or a sign of future price movements. Chartists use these patterns to identify current trends and trend reversals and to trigger buy and sell signals.
The 123 pattern is a reversal chart pattern which occurs very frequently and has a very high success ratio.
When the 123 pattern occurs at the end of trends and swings, they are an indication of a change in trend. They can also be found within a trading range, and they take place when the directional momentum of a trend is diminishing.
For any trading technique, one must understand its advantages and drawbacks.
Implementing the technique in the live markets is the crucial part and one must have a trading plan defining the precise entry, stop and exit levels.
2.) Premium session - http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=a08efb31-bb66-4878-95ee-9beea19aa955
The trend following 200 Moving Average strategy.
The 200 Moving Average strategy is a very easy to follow system which has a very high success ratio.
While the forex markets are highly trending markets, they tend to trend only 30% of the time, while 70% of the time is spent in a range.
Identifying and trading these trends would offer excellent profit potential.
This technique uses the two basic technical indicators – the 200 period Simple Moving Average & the Slow Stochastic to identify a trend valid across all time frames, and define precise points of entry and exit.
It would be great to see all of you there.
Sunil.
Is price movement random?
Posted on December 14, 2008 at 18:28 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani5 Comments »
Lets follow with some anticipated harmonic patterns on Gold (refer to the earlier post of “Gold again”)
On the daily time frame, we had discussed 2 alternatives and we were going to decide on trades based on which alternative was fulfilled.
So far, price seems to have fulfilled Alternative.1 of a bearish Gartley pattern.
But now, we seem to have a confusing situation -
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/gold-daily-300x154.gif
Looking at this chart, we can conclude that the wave B-C has completed and price should rally higher now to complete the wave C-D.
This means that we can expect some more rallies in this pattern.
But if we look at Alternative.2
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/gold-daily1-300x151.gif
The present resistance seems to have formed precisely at the 61.8, which can be classified as the “B” point.
In that case, we would expect a down move to complete the wave B-C.
So, do we look at long trades or short ones?
The practical approach, of course, will always be the “If-then” method.
We wait for price to confirm the moves, before we decide to enter the trade.
But some additional confirmations always help & we should look for some other factors to swing the balance.
Let’s start with a very common question - Do Fibonacci ratios really work?
Looking at this weekly chart of Gold, we can see that price has formed waves at precise Fib ratios.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/gold-weekly-300x152.gif
I have labeled the waves as A-B-C-D-E-F-G, simply for convenience and if you plot the Fib levels as described in the chart, we can say that price respects the Fib levels.
But this could be just a coincidence, couldn’t it?
As one skeptic once told me - “You have so many fib levels plotted, that every turning point would happen at some Fib level.
He had a point & it’s entirely possible.
But in defense of my approach, coincidences don’t occur very often, do they?
We can have a coincidence once, maybe a coincidence twice.
All right, 3 times a charm and we can even have 3 coincidences.
But coincidences happening 5 times in succession….Naaah!!!
So, coming back to the earlier point of having some additional confirmations, in spite of the strong fib “coincidences”, I would still look at some other factors to confirm the fib levels.
Which brings me to the topic…is price action random?
Looking at the previous Fib levels, we can certainly assume that it’s anything but random.
And to further reinforce the fact, have a look at this chart.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/gold-weekly1-300x152.gif
It’s the same weekly chart, with the waves A-B-C-D-E-F-G.
But now we don’t look at Fibs at all, but identify simple horizontal levels of support/resistance.
And we can see that each and every Fib ratio (mentioned in the earlier chart) coincides with a level, that price has respected earlier.
And this is a fact that we can take advantage of. While there may exist numerous levels of previous support/resistance, I would look for a confluence of these levels with a Fib ratio.
This gives me a stronger indication of price movement.
Coming back to the current situation, we seem to have a strong resistance at point “G”, which is also a fib 61.8 ratio.
Hence the possibility of this level holding price is quite high & if it does, then we can anticipate the extent of the possible down move.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/12/gold-daily21-300x153.gif
We again use the similar concept and target a 61.8fib level…which is a strong level of previous support/resistance.
Bottom line - by using these factors we are prepared with our trade targets. If price breaks higher, then this is the next resistance level & if it breaks lower than we have the next support level identified.
Most of the times, it’s the exit of the trade which is more important than the entry & by predefining the exit levels, you have given your trading that ‘edge’.
Sunil.Harmonic patterns, Elliot waves & Divergence…all together.
Posted on November 29, 2008 at 7:39 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani2 Comments »
Price action is never random and if you take the trouble and efforts to understand the chart patterns & simple levels of support/resistance, you can definitely get that “Edge” in your trading.
Let us have a look at the Usd/Cad chart of 1hr, where we had price giving us a definite structure. Understanding these structures gives us the anticipated moves of the subsequent price action.
Again, one must use these tools to follow price and not to predict the price. Hence our “Edge” is the fact that we can plan our trades in advance….before the crowd.
1.) Pattern.1 - Elliot wave.
Let’s start with the bearish Elliot wave. As we can see in the chart, this down trend formed a nice 5 wave impulsive pattern.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/cadew-300x146.gif
Now looking back at the chart and identifying any pattern is very easy, but trading the “hard right edge” of the chart is a different ball game.
It’s not easy to analyze the price action when we don’t know how the next bar is going to form.
So, let’s keep it practical and accept that we had identified this bearish Elliot wave, after it completed. Simply put, we did not trade this bearish move, since we did not identify the wave when it was forming.
But knowing that this is an Elliot wave, also gives us some clues for the subsequent price action.
Let’s first confirm the basic rules of the Elliot wave -
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/1cadew1-300x147.gif
1. We can clearly identify a 5 wave pattern with 3 impulsive waves and 2 corrective waves.
2. Wave.3 is the largest of all the impulsive waves.
3. Impulsive waves 1 & 5 are similar in structure.
4. The rule of alternates is followed in the corrective waves - If wave.2 is a sharp and strong retracement, then wave.4 is a shallow & consolidating retracement.
5. Wave.4 should never go into the territory of wave.1
6. The corrective wave.4 usually forms with a hidden divergence and the last impulsive wave.5 usually forms with a regular divergence.
With all these conditions being satisfied, we can assume that this was an Elliot wave. Hence we can estimate the further price movement, since the rules of the Elliot wave say that there should be an ABC correction after the completion of the 5 waves.
This ABC move usually retraces to 50% (minimum) of the entire Elliot wave, and we now have an estimated direction & an expected target.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/2cadew1-300x147.gif
2.) Pattern.2 - Divergence.
Let’s go the next chart pattern, the bullish divergence.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/3caddivg-300x147.gif
The target objective of a divergence is usually the fib projection 127.2/ 161.8 of D2-D3. As we can see in the chart, the 127.2 fib level coincides with the previous target of the ABC correction.
Hence we can designate this area to be a potential target zone and we would have a very high probability of price reaching this level.
3.) Pattern.3 - Harmonic pattern.
After price completes the previous 2 patterns of the Elliot wave & the divergence, we have a bounce from the support zone and a subsequent harmonic pattern - a bullish Gartley.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/4cadharmonic-300x146.gif
Let’s have a look at this pattern on a smaller time frame
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/5cad-gartley-300x145.gif
We can see that this pattern formed with precise fib levels and hence we have a strong probability of price fulfilling the expected bullish objectives.
The price objectives of a Gartley pattern are usually the fib projection of 127.2 / 161.8 of A-D.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/6cad-gartley-300x147.gif
As we can see that the 161.8 fib projection is pretty close to the targets of the earlier patterns. Hence we can now identify a high probability target zone.
The combination of all these patterns has given us a potential target zone and this becomes very important.
Knowing when to exit the trade is probably more essential than the entry itself, and one can mange the trade and the risk properly.
To add to the fun, let me throw in one more harmonic pattern -J
We can identify a bearish butterfly also, which seems to have completed.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/7cad-butterfly-300x146.gif
Let’s have a look at this pattern on a smaller time frame.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/8cad-butterfly-300x146.gif
Again, this one seems to have completed with precise fib ratios, and hence we can expect the bearish price objectives to be met.
Supporting a bearish move is the fact that price seems to be losing momentum as the stochastic indicator is not confirming the last highs of price. (As seen in the previous chart)
So, we could be looking at a possible bearish divergence.
As an example of managing a trade based on this knowledge, we have possible bearish moves and price is quite close to our bullish target zone.
At this stage, one would probably take most profits from the bullish trade, and yet leave something running…in case price still manages to get to the target zone.
As they say - Well prepared is half done.
Sunil.
Gold again
Posted on November 27, 2008 at 13:22 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Let’s follow up on the previous harmonic pattern that we had identified on the 4hr time frame of Gold.
This is the bullish Gartley pattern that had completed & we were expecting price to rally to fulfill the price objective of this pattern.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/gold4hr-gartley1-300x146.gif
As we can see, price did fulfill the objective of this pattern.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/gold4hr-gartley2-300x145.gif
At this stage price seems to be in a consolidation stage and we are not sure about the direction its going to take.
As always, let me repeat myself.
We are traders and not astrologers. We do not predict price movement, but use our analysis tools to set certain levels.
And follow the “If-Then” principle. We allow price to make its moves & follow it.
The advantage is that our trade parameters are pre-defined, hence giving us a “Plan”
Looking at the daily time frame, this up move (which fulfilled the price target of the 4hr bullish Gartley) has given rise to some other harmonic patterns -
Alternative.1 - We could be looking at a possible bearish Gartley in the making….IF price finds resistance at “B” (the 61.8% of X-A)
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/gold1-300x146.gif
In that case, we can expect price to form the third wave B-C of the harmonic pattern. If we concern ourselves with only this move, then we have a definite price objective to the downside.
Alternative. 2 -
We could also be looking at a bearish Bat pattern, where the last wave C-D has yet to be completed.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/gold2-300x145.gif
So, if price breaks the 61.8 level (of X-A) then we can expect moves to the ‘D’ level of this pattern.
Conclusion -
We don’t know if price will move up or down, but we have defined our levels and will follow price. The advantage of using harmonic patterns is that price seems to respect the Fib levels quite precisely and we can expect a high probability that these objectives would be met.
And if they do, then we can also plan further moves, since we have the next wave already defined.
Sunil.
Fear and greed
Posted on November 24, 2008 at 5:43 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Hello everyone,
This is an article which I came across on one of the forums & requested permission to put it up on my blog.
I feel that this explains the basic factors of what makes the market move.
As I often mention while discussing the harmonic patterns - “what is the reason for these patterns to form?”
The prices movement actually takes place by the emotions of the traders. Now these emotions may be caused by various factors, be it some fundamental reasons of economic unbalance, or non performance of a currency, or the strengthening of another currency…it does not matter.
What matters is that different traders look at the situation is different ways, which is reflected on the market price.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/fear-and-greed1.gif
The typical inexperienced member of the trading “herd” enters the market, or his position, at point A.
This is a trader who cannot stand the notion that he might be left out of an ongoing rally.
At this point the experienced traders start to cash in on their profits and the rally quickly starts running out of steam.
When the price declines to the point where our trader cannot take any more pain he gets out at point B, just before price finally hits its bottom.
If for some reason he didn’t exit at point B, he will most likely exit at point C being happy to recover some of his losses.
This is exactly the kind of “herd” trader that successful traders prey upon.
Let’s take this one step further -
If price manages to break the high of point A, then the underlying emotion changes to the bullish side & everyone and his brother will begin to buy…expecting the price to go further.
This adds fuel to the fire and this price wave gets extra momentum, thus making it a large price rally.
Now, isn’t this the wave 1-2-3 of an Elliot wave?
So, can we quantify our emotions on a mathematical graph? It looks like we can.
And this is exactly what technical analysis does.
Sunil.
Harmonics on Gold again
Posted on November 16, 2008 at 10:04 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
We have had a couple of previous harmonic patterns on Gold, and somehow Gold seems to follow the Fib levels quite regularly & precisely.
As of now, we are looking at a bullish Gartley pattern which seems to have completed and one would expect price to rally to the upside.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/1411-gold-gartley1-300x146.gif
But before we analyze this pattern, let us look back on some previous patterns.
Looking at the daily time frame, we initially had a bearish Gartley pattern which started forming in the month of March’08.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/1411-gold-gartley2-300x146.gif
The pattern formed with precise waves, and subsequently fulfilled its target objectives too, quite accurately.
Subsequently, price rallied from this support level, found resistance at the fib retracement level of 78.6% and formed a bearish divergence in the process.
Thus this level became a strong resistance zone & we could have expected price to change trend to the downside.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/1411-gold-gartley3-300x147.gif
As we mentioned, Gold seems to follow the fib levels quite accurately & we could have estimated the expected support area of this downtrend.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/1411-gold-gartley4-300x147.gif
And as we can see, price found support at precisely the 127.2 Fib projections.
This brings us back to the existing bullish Harmonic pattern.
Since we have a bounce of a strong Fib support level, the probability of this pattern fulfilling becomes higher. And looking at the previous harmonic patterns, one would expect price to follow the fib levels.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/11/1411-gold-gartley5-300x146.gif
Price has bounced from the support zone at “D” and in the process, has also broken some previous levels of support/resistance. (As shown by the blue horizontal line on the chart)
Hence one would assume bullish momentum and expect price to rally to the target objectives.
Repeating the basis of “Forexology”. There are no guarentees in trading and what has worked previously, may not work again. Its only the risk management & a proper trade management which will ensure success.
Sunil.
Congrats FxStreet
Posted on November 15, 2008 at 18:29 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Just thought I would mention the press release of the traffic results of Fxstreet.
FXstreet.com experienced its best traffic results ever in October 2008, and hearty congratulations to it.
It’s not surprising, since FxStreet has created a reputation for being THE One-stop shop for forex trading on the web, and you deserve it.
Way to go, FxStreet, and three cheers.
Once again, it’s a pleasure being part of such a wonderful team.
Sunil
More on Barcelona
Posted on November 15, 2008 at 18:27 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani1 Comment »
After the ITC, I conducted my own workshop in “University of Barcelona”, which was another great event. It was a day long workshop, which was attended by a small group of traders. It was highly interactive and we covered a range of topics right from the basics to advanced techniques. I am quite certain that it benefited the traders who attended it.
One of the participants, (Carlo from Dublin) recorded the complete workshop & I will soon be putting it up on my website.
And I would like to make a special mention for one my subscribers from Barcelona (Carlos Jove Santisteban) without whose help, this workshop would not have been possible. He took a lot of efforts to see that things were organized properly, and thank you very much, Carlos.
Some more comments on Barcelona.
I cannot just get over it, as I fell completely in love with the city.
After 4 days of trading forex, I took a break and spent another 2 days exploring the city.
Its one of the most beautiful cities in the world and I had a grand time.
I visited the Fxstreet office, and now I can put a face to the Emails that we receive from the staff -J
I honestly feel that with the Fxstreet staff and my friend Carlos, I have a second home in Barcelona.
Just give me the slightest excuse and I will come back.
FxStreet…are you listening -J
Sunil.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on October 20, 2008 at 8:53 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Hello James,
This is with reference to your comment on the post of “Harmonics on Gold”.
I thought, it would be better explained with some analysis and charts.
First of all, the strong moves recently in Gold certainly have been due to fundamental factors.
The financial situation globally had a strong effect on the Gold prices, but in answer to your question, the technicals still work.
Technical analysis indicates the situation as of now, in which all the current factors are priced in…the fundamentals, the rumors, the news…everything.
While this does not undermine the importance of the fundamental factors, one must remember one thing about technical analysis.
Whatever may be the reason for the price movement, the technical levels of support/resistance will always hold true
With regards to your second comment, about rumors of Gold reaching lows of 650-630…well…as I always say…we are traders and not astrologers.
We should follow price and our trades must be based on our tools in such a way, that we take profits from any price movement…up or down.
Let’s implement this procedure, so you get a better idea of what I am talking about.
We will analyze the Gold prices, based on a top-down approach.
Looking at the monthly chart, we can see that price is in a down retracement, after the huge up move.
We should obviously look for levels of support for this down move, and we use 2 basic and simple tools for that.
We plot the Fib retracements from the swing low to the swing high, and we can see that right now, price has found support on the 38.2 Fib retracement.
Secondly, if we plot support trend lines on all the higher lows, we can observe another support level at a trend line.
Let’s follow the “If-then” principle.
If this support holds, then we could see some up moves from here.
But if it does not, then the next lower target would be the lower trend line.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/10/2010gold12-300x148.gif
So, we have one part of our plan in place. If price breaks the support level, we have a fair estimate of the next down target…which is close to the rumored 650. -J
Now let’s go the weekly chart.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/10/2010gold2-300x149.gif
Currently the bearish trend seems to be in place, since price has been forming lower highs and lower lows.
Till the time price does not break the last high, we must remain biased towards the down trend, which supports our longer term views.
Now let’s have a look at the daily chart purely from a technical point of view.
Looking at the previously mentioned down trend of lower highs and lower lows, I want to demonstrate the power of the Fib ratios and the Harmonic patterns.
Situation.1 -
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/10/2010gold3-300x148.gif
We had a bearish Gartley pattern which formed at the precise fib levels. The price target of this pattern was also fulfilled quite accurately.
Situation.2 -
Bullish Divergence.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/10/2010gold42-300x149.gif
The previous Gartley pattern completed with a bullish divergence, and we calculate the price targets of a divergence by Fib ratios again.
As we can see, price achieved the 161.8 fib projection very accurately and got rejected for further down moves.
Situation.3
Bullish 123 pattern.
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/forexology/files/2008/10/2010gold5-300x149.gif
As of now, price seems to have a found support on a 78.6 fib retracement and formed a bullish 123 pattern.
This would be an indication of a bullish move to the upside.
But a safe entry into a 123 pattern is when price breaks the high of ‘2’.
Hence we designate this current area as a No-trade zone.
Our trading plan should be -
Long entry on the break of the high of ‘2’.
Short entry on the break of the low of ‘1’
In all the 3 situations, did it really matter what moved the price?
The basic fact is that price does respect certain levels of support/resistance, and knowing this fact can give you an edge.
As traders, our job is to follow price and then manage the trade as per proper money management rules.
Sunil.
Sneak preview of the Live Technical Analysis Workshop in Barcelona, Spain.
Posted on October 15, 2008 at 6:36 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »
Some more tips about the workshop topics.
This is with reference to the Live Technical Analysis Workshop, that I will be conducting in Barcelona just after the ITC.
Venue: The University of Barcelona
Date: Saturday November 1st 2008
Time: 08:30 AM to 04:30 PM
Cost: EURO 200.00 (including food and workshop material)
You can get the complete details here: http://www.fibforex123.com/Barcelona_workshop.htm
{For traders attending the FXstreet.com International Traders Conference (Barcelona October 29 to 31) there is a discount and the cost is 150