一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Here we go. Pretty straightforward as they just use the fix rate between the mark and the euro - duh. I pulled up the bloomberg info on the rate and then I pulled up the USDDEM chart (they wouldn't chart DEMUSD oddly enough, so you have to imagine it upside down). Also odd was the the fact that the original/altered exchange rate with its set pricing couldn't give me any newer data than the end of September; so we aren't getting the current lows. But, you can extrapolate from the previous peak.

Looks like we do have that low (high) down (up) there. Lets see if it really has that strong of a correlation though since Germany and the Euro Zone as a supportive economy are two very different things.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:43 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I also think caution for the downside is warranted. Given the consistency of the EURUSD's rise and its general record highs, this pair could very well find itself caught up in risk appetite/aversion trends. Just like equities, commodities and the carry trade, EURUSD has joined the roster of reliably profitable trades for big fund managers and institutionals. Therefore, a considerable corrections in risky, speculative trades could see deep money abandon its search for new EURUSD record highs. What's more, their currency trades are the easiest place to raise liquidity in the event that they want to shore up other margin accounts, so there is also that aspect to consider.

The economic fundamentals are too long-term and vague to try and pinpoint the ultimate turning point in sentiment, so I've decided to stick to technicals and keep a weary eye on exogenous event risk for my EURUSD guidance. I am going to keep out of longs, though I am mildly bullish. Instead, I think a conservative approach in taking small size short on a break of 1.4125, adding through 1.4015 and further at 1.3825 would be a better approach.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 12:16 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

This is much more a longer-term topic than my previous post, but I've been looking at historical positioning data from the COT report, and something interesting caught my eye. Namely, we already know that non-commercial net longs are at record highs, but this is likewise a function of open interest rising significantly through the past 10 years or so. So how do we compare total speculative interest to data from as far back as 1999?

One of the more obvious ways to gain a more historical perspective is to see what percentage of total open interest that non-commercial longs make up. This is likewise at record highs (above 60%), which is far from a bullish sign for the future of EURUSD gains. I wouldn't necessarily advocate a short position from these levels, but the longer-term trader may definitely start looking for "bargains" on cheap dollars.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 12:17 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I have a buy stop order at 1.1755 in usdchf.





[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 12:18 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

So far it seems to be working out that way. A good ol' stop hunting/option barrier expedition. The EURUSD saw a few ticks above 1.4500 then immediately dropped in the moments that followed.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 12:28 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I posted this in the Fed room initially, but thought it was pertinent here as well..

Interesting price action in the Dow and FX carry trades...these markets have finally taken the FOMC statement sentiment to heart as it becomes clear that December will probably not yield another rate cut.

The first chart is a Dow intraday...check out the 200 point drop within the first few minutes of trading. The second chart shows the daily chart, with price targeting the confluence of trendline and fibonacci support near 13685. Sharper declines will take aim on the 100 SMA at 13581, though a break of the said trendline would suggest that additional losses may be in store.

The third chart is of EURJPY, highlighting the losses in FX carry trades in line with equity declines. Like the Dow, EURJPY has targeted trendline support. Watch for a break of the 38.2% fib at 164.68...this would be highly bearish for the pair as well.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 12:29 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Hi All,
I thought you may be interested in looking at the Euro from a Murray Math POV after all the strange price action on Friday.
I have drawn the trend line in to define when support will be broken and when it will be safer to short the Euro.
We have a clear breakout of the 5/8 level seen on Friday with the 6/8 level providing strong resistance. The ultimate target is 1.4648 in the short term we recognise as the 8/8 level above this we are at short term extremes.
We have also spent 126 hours about 5 days in the 3/8-5/8 region that gives us our 40% of time in this cycle. We also have seen that the first part of the cycle took roughly 310 hours about 13 days. Giving us a total of 18 days so far; therefore we can estimate that we have spent 70% in time of this up trend cycle. That by my calculation leaves us approximately another 13 trading days of up trend before the Murray Math cycle is complete.
The 5/8 level should be very good support now so it would be a good area to start to go long dependant upon the PA.
I find this fascinating- I hope you do as well.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 12:32 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Since there is no longer a 'Other Crosses' section, I think the EURUSD thread is the best place to comment on USDCHF. While I have been hearing a lot about the former making consistent all time highs, I haven't really been hearing much with the swiss-backed major and its recent push to new lows.

I have attached a monthly chart and that swing low at 1.1100 is the lowest going back over 30 years of price action. So, it is a significant low. And, just yesterday, we saw USDCHF push through its nearby swing low of 1.1285. If you really want to bet on continued dollar weakness, why go for EURUSD and USDCAD which have already breached their major levels and have probably already lost most of their breakout momentum. USDCHF on the other hand, still needs to get to 1.1100 and then we could see some considerable momentum in a move through that level should the dollar continue to head lower. And if the dollar starts turning before this can happen, we have a great oppurtunity for a reversal and a good place to set a stop.

Anyone see a flaw in this plan?
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 12:34 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

As for when my short bias comes into play, I was looking at the monthly chart and the rising trend seems well intact, so I don't want to consider any major short positions until August's lows (below 150) are taken out. I don't see any short-term downside cues from the technicals forming now.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 12:59 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I waiting for the close of the 8-12, four-hour candle to see if we can get another tall wick and perhaps put the cap on a lower low for EURUSD. If we fail to make a new high above 1.4750 on this upswing, I'm going to start looking for short positions. First consideration for a short is 1.4625 - small size and a 55-75 point target. 1.4485 is next and that will be full position size.

At the same time, the steady slide in USDCHF isn't too encouraging. The euro and swiss backed majors typically have such a tight correlation that I'm surprised USDCHF hadn't put in for a bigger bounce over the first two days of this week.

Also, EURJPY is looking pretty comfortable in its upside move, but I'm waiting for another shot of volatility for the market that could tear us out of clean channel on the 60-minute frequency chart.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 12:59 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Despite the bad economic data coming from the US, I think that traders are getting the feeling that they have a handle on the sub-prime issues and that help is on the way, it may take weak holiday retail sales to fuel recession talk and spark fear. I think that it will retrace at least to 1.4649 the 38.2% Fibo level of the 1.4127-1.4967 rally, before we see a hard push towards 1.50
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:09 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I'm not very good at picking major tops and bottoms, so my position sizing will remain small until we find incontrovertible evidence of a downside turn. However, the break on the 480-minute chart is pretty attractive. EURUSD has officially broken its rising trend from 10/22 with this move. Unfortunately, I didn't put on a short limit entry order last night because I was very doubtful over the momentum we would find on the break (though it ended up being a pretty good trade).

This modest rebound looks like it may simply be a bounce before continuation to the downside - which is very appealing. Nevertheless, I'm on the sidelines unless we can retest 1.48 and that fails as the daily chart shows the overall trend is still in tact (and calling up support at 1.46 at the moment).

Holding out for that break of 1.46 before considering any serious moves. Lots of volatility for smaller moves with 50-75 point targets though...
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:10 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Hi all....

Well we got that bounce up...but how long it will last is another matter...

Still in a clear up trend for me..short and medium term...
Attached Images





I may be tempted to go long at this support line...looking for a little more upside... seems like the S/R is not going to hold.....its been around this S/R for most of the day..and no real bounce...so I am thinking if it moves away from it or crosses down will all be based on London open or data release not the fact of a S/R level.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:11 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Like clockwork, it's 3:00 EST and EURUSD is selling off just like it did yesterday. Immediate support rests at 1.4768, though a break below that will likely target yesterday's lows at 1.4712.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:13 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Looks like a break above 1.48 will see a test of at least 1.4850/60, possible 1.49.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:14 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

It looks like we are one break closer to a medium term turn in EURUSD. The pair dropped 70 points in the last hour and broke through a rising trendline from the low on 10/30.

However, I'm still on the sidelines, since we still have a collection of support around 1.4690/4700. Just on my short-time frame charts, we have the rising 20-day SMA and a 61.8% fib. Although, I'm more concerned with the pivot level in the area that has proven itself to be significant.

If we can get a good move below 1.47, it would probably be good for another 100 point run; but that doesn't look attractive enough for me considering risk to the upside could just as easily be 1.4950 as it could be 1.48.

If we get below 1.46 though, a break of that trendline would be much more attractive.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:17 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I was watching this breakout move in USDCHF and I didn't anything to jump on board... That was a clear continuation move and the wind up from the wedge was setting up for some considerable breakout momentum. My only concern was that it wasn't coming with a fundamental impact from the dollar, so I wasn't that confident in the potential follow through.

If we can get above 1.13, I would be more confident in the medium-term turn in USDCHF. I will be watching this closely to give me a clue on EURUSD and how it reacts around 1.46.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:18 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I thought I'd just point out that today is the last day of the month and the eurusd monthly candle going to look like this....that is one long and ugly wick....and suggestive of a reversal.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:20 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

hefeiddd

A few days ago,I said look for the pair to retrace to 1.4649 before we see any resistance, we went through that number but looks like we are seeing resistance after this hammer candle, will it go to 1.5. I still think we may see it retest this level before a hard push toward 1.5.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:21 编辑 ]