一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

So, what will happen to EURUSD if the ECB holds? If there were still a lot of positions kept on for rate bias, I think there could be some quick unwind; and if the Fed holds, that unwind will accelerate. Of course, a hike would certainly surprise fence sitters like me and upset the growing crowd of dovish specs. I think I will err on the side of caution and take out my long entry limits since the holiday will cut into most of the chances at momentum until the Thursday ECB meeting; and instead, I'll set limit short orders around 1.3550.

Opinions?Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 08:41 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

EURUSD

Trade signals:
Sell 1.3586, stop 1.3627, target 1.3475.




[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 08:46 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

If you look at the strip analysis below, there is still some backing for that 25 basis point hike on Thursday. Beyond that there is even speculation for a little more tightening. However, the curve quickly regresses just beyond this activity; suggesting the market is just waiting for the ECB to take on a neutral stance - perhaps being led to a sooner than expected cut by a drop in demand from the US and backlash from an expensive euro and overexuberant investment. Given the low numbers a few months out, it would be very interesting to see how the market reacts if the ECB confirms that it is backing off this month rather than later this year.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 08:48 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

And economist, you say the dollar has been relatively strong in the past ten years and is ready to come back down. However, if you look at the dollar index, it certainly does not look strong. It is currently testing 15-year lows after a five year plunge. I would say that technically it looks very oversold. So, while we may have further declines, it looks like they will be limited. On the other hand, when the dollar starts to regain its footing, I'm expecting it to be a quick rebound.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 08:53 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Of course, the technical structure I like could completely vanish in 24 hours - we don't even need major economic releases. There are a few issues of fundamental concern though. Paulson will be making remarks about the Northern Rock situation later today. There are a few European and US indicators of note (German ZEW, US PPI, US TICS, US NAHB). And, I'm sure there will be some jawboning of the Greenspan interview aired last night and his book release Monday morning (he couldn't have had any better free PR than this. Perhaps his whole last six years as the head of the Fed had been an elaborate ploy to boost sales of his long-planned memoirs...).

Anyone else looking to specifically play this event risk on a short-term move or perhaps a breakout for a swing trade?Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 09:02 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

A quick google search turns up this guy:











Can't blame you. Check out the charts below of G7 meetings and the USDJPY and EURUSD.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-19 08:52 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I added a 240-minute chart to show the acceleration in the move up to 1.40. This can't last forever. Eventually we will have to see some chop and consolidation; and what will traders do with that free time on their hands? 1.40 is gone, we are at all-time highs and retail money is probably the only capital getting in at this point. I'm not saying I want to short; but I'm definitely going long at these levels.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 10:34 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Chart resized & posted.
Price has advanced as anticipated, and now 4207 as far as 4290, are within the coming week's true range average & high fluctuation values.
Entry windows in retracments have risen too. I will aim to compile a 5% long by:-
1% @ 4050 + 1.5% @ 3967 + 2.5% @ 3900, Stops @ 3950 (1%) & 3860 (4%). Targets 4200 (half portion) & 4250 (All).

Profitable TradingAttached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 10:53 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Last edited by jackclown : 09-24-2007 at 02:01 AM.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 10:56 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

On a side note, did anyone catch the FT.com article on the building speculation of the Saudi Riyal having its peg broken? Some $10 billion was pumped into Riyal forwards last week despite the SMA's assurances that they would not break. The BBH analyst quoted in the article said she doesn't believe it will spark wider outflows from treasuries, but I think that it will (at least from the middle east). Saudi Arabia is one of the US's closest friends in that region, and their abandoning the dollar could easily be taken as a 'sign' by others.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 10:58 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Where are we trying to time the turn? It seems that medium term reversals came when the SSI ratio reached above 10. Yet this was far from the true reversal level, as it happened later with the SSI ratio at +7 and +6. More recently, the SSI has breached 7 and we've seen no such turn in the USDCAD.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:18 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Fundamentally the move to 4630 is warranted by reports that the FED rates easing cycle will take rates to the 3.00 handle. On the mid to long term this aggrevates the Macro trend of compiling Asian central bank reseves and investments in Euro. Which has been the key to the current Euro appreciation.

Profitable TradingAttached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:22 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

As it is, the ATR is falling which alone suggests the trend high is running out of steam. For a correction it could lead us to believe we are moving towards consolidation. Alternatively, volatility usually contracts before a breakout.

Opinions?Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:23 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Longs in play....

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:29 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

It looks like the dollar has shaken its falling trend channel before the event risk really heats up with Thursday's central bank activity and Friday's NFPs. Over the past few months, the majors have moved to break major technical formations before big indicators or events can cross the wires. Perhaps this is a move to dampen volatility or a means for big traders to take advantage of stops placed too close to support and resistance levels during low volatility and liquidity conditions.

Whatever it is, I've not yet adapted any good strategies to trade that way yet. I was watching the EURUSD move below 1.42 and 1.4130 yesterday; but I kept out of the moves so as not to take a position before major event risk. However, if this is how things will work from now on, perhaps I should take these pre-release moves and square up just before the indicators hit the wires, or else just move in for reasonable stops during the spike in volatility.

Has anyone else noticed the big technical moves happening before event risk recently?
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:30 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

My day

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:32 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

The sentiment and techs every one has offered sounds good, but my EURUSD positions will be structured and executed with caution in mind. So far, we are still seeing an uninterrupted downtrend on the short-term after breaking below the September rising trend channel. However, I don't want to try to jump on the bandwagon now with 1.40 in site.

At the same time, Jumping in ahead of a test of 1.40 seems to be tempting fate. We could get a lite, unexpected fundamental push while price action bases in that area and a medium-term break to could form very easily. So, I think I'll wait for a good break and close below 1.40 or a confirmed rebound before I make a bet on direction.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:36 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Interesting thought.

I will note that, despite the pullback in rate cut expectations, the US dollar has remained largely weaker against major counterparts. And, despite the pullback in Fed Funds Futures, equity markets have rallied.

What does it all mean? Markets seem to be willing to believe what they want to believe. One can't seriously argue that the pullback in rate cut expectations should boost the EURUSD or equity market indices. Yet here we are.

As it stands the EURUSD is coming upon intraday resistance just above the 1.4100 mark. A move above eyes extension to 1.4150, while reversal could test the bottom of the channel closer to 1.4000.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:38 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

SS I'll take issue with you're count in this way.......you're V of 1 is acually a wave b irregular flat to create a wave 4.....let me try to post a chart as I see it.......I use colors to determine degrees...makes it easier for me........
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:39 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

We are living to see one of the most powerful signals in the Forex market, in my opinion: MACD divergence on the dailies. I think enough is enough and we need a correction before we can go higher. Personally I sold 3 lots with a stop on a daily close above trendline resistance.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 11:41 编辑 ]