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发表于 2008-4-17 07:04
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Case study course on applications of mathematical probability and morphology to prices
The Action and Reaction (or AR) Rule: This Rule was first applied to price trend changes by the late Roger Babson. He adapted it to price movements from Sir Isaac Newton抯 scientific law that states 揂ction and Reaction are equal and opposite? He stated that his fortune of over $50,000,000 was due to this principle. In gratitude to Newton, he established the Gravity Research Foundation now located at New Boston, N.H., and went to England where he was able to buy Newton抯 former home. He then transported the study where Newton made his discoveries to the Babson Business Institute, and you may visit and sit in the this beautifully paneled room at Wellesley Hills in Babson Park. The writer, your director was presented with some apples and said to the descendents of the apple tree that Newton is said to have been sitting under when the fall of an apple started his train of thought leading to the important laws that he developed, relative to gravitation.
You can realise that a principle such as this AR Rule that produces such profits is worthy of your attention and understanding. For once you understand how you can apply this Rule to make money for yourself you are on the road to an independent fortune of your own. Colleges have endeavored to impart the essential knowledge for you to qualify for a profession or job through which you may make a living. But do you know of any college that had given any courses on how to make money ? Mr. Hunt of Texas, reportedly one of the world抯 richest men has stated that college education does not seem to be of much help in fortune building. Mr. Ling of Ling Vought Temco who made the largest check of over 400 million was a Drop-out. Ted Warren who made a fortune in Commodities never finished grammar school. All these men needed was common sense and a desire to become wealthy. So too may you through these Course Studies apply these principles proven to be the important ones by men who have become affluent, principles never elaborated anywhere except by this Course you are now taking.
In order for you to use this AR Rule mathematically, you need a center line about which to measure the Action of the past, with the Reaction in the future. Such is the marvelous order in any random movements such as occur in price movements in free markets, that you will find many lines can be used as center lines, To name a few of these, the fan lines you have just studied in the 揌orn of Plenty?studies charts are one example. Try it yourself on any chart and see how this Rule will enable you to sell after rises and buy after declines. The zero pivot to the four pivot is another useful center line. Lines drawn through three or more Pivots are important center lines to measure from, the more pivots such a line passes through the greater its reliability. Each line through two or more gaps in price ranges is another. Your Course will furnish you with examples of each of these center lines, but now you should test your understanding of how to draw these AR lines on each of the final lines on your 揌orn of Plenty?charts. To avoid confusion from too many lines on each chart, put tracing paper over it and draw the AR lines about each rib of the fans. See how you are provided with the knowledge of buying profitably after declines, and selling profitably after rises. Loss comes when you don抰. The method of doing this you find in the 揅ourse method to Increase Your Holding? and the accompanying International Minerals and Chemical Chart (IGL). Alan H. Andrews, Director
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THE ML-MLH STUDY OF FLUCTUATIONS APPLIED TO RECENT TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS IN FLORIDA: 1966 TO 1977
On a long distance call today from a Course Member he enthused on his profits from Bellies by use of the ML Method.
To show that this is a law of nature whenever there are fluctuations you see on the right a chart of high and low temperatures here in Miami during the past three months that corresponds to the high and low daily price ranges on our futures or stock chart.
One of the benefits of using this method is that it shows us the mathematical probability of going beyond previous P[ivot]s.
For example when you draw 1ML2-3 you see that the extension of that line passes well below the lower 4 which came on Dec.30th. If this was a price chart we抎 surmise that prices were too strong to drop to that ML and that therefore the probability is that the P at 5 would be higher that at 3. That is precisely what happened to the temperature, on the daily low scale line. Similarly the fact that upper 5 was not higher than 3 indicated weakness there and the probability that 6 would be lower than 4 as actually was the case. Where this is a price chart such information adds to your profit.
Again when you draw 5ML6-7 you see that its extension is below 8 and that the probability therefore is that 9 will be higher than 7.
When you draw upper 8ML9-10 and you see that a big drop is indicated because the fluctuation failed to reach that ML.
But now draw the lower 8ML9-10 and see that the [missing] 11 is well beyond the Upper MLH. Empirically it has been observed that this apparent excessive show of strength almost invariably signals a major reversal of trend, the big drop that followed in this case. Check this on past reversals on your various price charts and note how often this is a valuable signal for future profits.
In order to learn how to make several hundred percent yearly rate by this method, practice paper trading by taking any old chart of Cattle, Hogs, Bellies, Beans, etc., and draw in the first ML you see on that chart, and the MLH line that prices are the most liable to cross. If the trend is down, enter your buy order at a price where it might close above that MLH. Or if the trend is up and your MLH is therefore sloping up, you have your order in as soon as a close is below that MLH. Enter the price at which your order would be filled so that as soon as you reverse your position by this same procedure, you抣l note the price and be able to figure the profit on this and likewise on al similar transactions. This will give you confidence in this method when you see the hundreds of percent you will be making when you do real trading. You抣l find there will be some whip-saw losses but with practice with your Course methods of eliminating these, they抣l be so small that your profits can absorb them easily. |
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-19 08:24 编辑 ] |
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