一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hello everyone,

I like the "apocalyptic" kingaragon's posts... I am following the down-trend channel in 4 hours chart. For this week my bullish target is 1.3460/80 and looking for resetting shorts to 1.33. Check the chart below.

Have nice trading week!

A. Rodriguez
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Hello everybody. The downtrend channel in 4h-chart still "alive". SMA20=1.3406 is key in upside. Below SMA65=1.3365, it seems 1.33 is the next. Please see image attached.

A.
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hefeiddd

Eurodollars are the most liquid interest rate futures contracts in the world and have been a good leading indicator for the EUR/USD exchange rate.

In the past, the EUR/USD and the December libor futures have decoupled for a number of times but the EURUSD has always corrected in the direction of the interest rates futures.

Looking at the chart below one can easily see that the EURUSD is too high and will probably correct to 1.3350.
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In the chart below, one can see that 10 Year Bonds Treasury Futures Closed Above a Significant Trendline. Without yield support the USD could be vulnerable against other high yielding currencies.
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hefeiddd

Hi Justine,
I trade Fiber primarily and occaisionally cable.

I use two techniques LT positioning (swap permitting), and scalping.

LT positioning is using channels, Murray Math and Wolfe waves.

Attachted are two Euro charts.Attached Images





According to my calculations using Murray Math we have approximately 3 more trading days before we can begin to short. Also Daily Wolfe wave target has not been met.
This leaves enough room for another shot up towards the previous highs and possibly extend. The consequences for an extension are huge as it locks in the Euro to a strong uptrend. Failure at this test will see Fiber possibly retrace to the 1.3360 region once more.
This is the reason why I would not short here.
Cable has also set new highs- high probablity that Fiber will do the same.
100 pips a day is nothing now for Fiber and potentially we can go up another 200 pips before time runs out. Although I think 1.3817 will cap if it does fly.
Too much risk at this juncture to go short.
The important immediate levels are 1.3611 and 1.3672 if either are broken risk increases to the upside as 1.3580 holds. If 1.3580 breaks we will see 1.3550-67.
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Strong economic news from Europe and the UK this am.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-16 18:22 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Attached: EUR/USD hourly/weekly charts
keep trading...Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hello everyone, Greetings from Philippines!

Friday 29th, 2h15 GMT
At this point of time the downtrend 4h-channel still intact. I am not expecting a break above 1.3480. If pair consolidate below 1.3434 before US session I favor a bearish scenario. Please see file attached.

Regards!
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Finally I was long on Friday when pair fails to break 1.3434 support. Using the same 4h-chart, I am expecting support at 1.3470, 1.3450 maximum. Our targets are 1.3580 and 1.3620. I see possible ranges if pair fails to break 1.3550 or 1.36

Have good tradings!
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hefeiddd

Very possible. Euro is now above Fibonacci resistance, clear breakout and in our 1-2 Bollinger Band buy zone. 1.3650 is a very possible target as log as we clear today's high. ECB rate decision this Thurs > Trichet is expected to be hawkishAttached Images





Granted Wed is VERY lightened trading, the EUR/USD is looking like it wants to turn. The risk for a double top is high and the lower highs are not promising. Comments from ECB President Trichet will be the "trigger" for the turn or a new record high.

What do you think will happen?
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Euro below 100-hour SMA on hourly
EURUSD is below the 100-hour SMA on the hourly. Admittedly it oscillates above and below that level often (see 06/27-06/29), but the SMA coincides with a range floor over the past few days which means that it is pretty key resistance. This may provide a low risk opportunity with a 1.3615 stop. There is no major support on the downside until 1.3540.

See anything different?
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hefeiddd

Throughout much of the latter part of June, 1.3471 kept the lid on the move North for EURUSD but once broken, price extended to 161.8% where it found support during the begining of this month. Today it looks on course for a move to 261.8% at around 1.3809. A clean, hard push above here sees the lofty extension level of 423.6%, somewhere over and above 1.41. Chart studies are well cooked ... "Ting!".

PS Possible USDCHF bounce from April's lows here at around 1.2007 to give $ a respite?
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These fib extensions seem to be providing both clear targets but untested support. In view of this, I'd be more likely to trade at around these levels than I would anywhere else within the price ranges.
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hefeiddd

This is the Modified MM daily chart. As you can see we are in the 3/8-5-8 zone according to this chart. The interesting part is that the 5/8 level is @1.4160 and 3/8 @1.3184. That creates the 10000 pip range!
I don't think that your Gann calc is wrong. It is just a matter of when- as you say getting the the timing right is the most difficult part.
Fiber is looking more like cable every day but without the range of movement that is associated with cable.
Time for me to assess new strategies.Attached Images

hefeiddd

EDIT: Quick question... I've seen the "Attachments Pending Approval" sign for a few hours now. How long does it typically take them to be approved? It's been a while...Attached Images

hefeiddd

For me, this presents a considerable conflict between techs and fundas; so I will not try to get into a trade until Friday morning. If GDP is weak, I'll get in for a EURUSD rally to 3850 (depending on whether or not I could still get a good price i.e. 1.3685-1.3725). On the other hand, a strong growth report would only encourage me to enter a short (even if it does pop higher), which I would enter on a confirmed close below 1.3685.Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-16 18:29 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Hope everyone is keeping an eye on the dollar index. It has stalled well below what would be the next notable resistance level of 81.25. Perhaps this means that even if we get a surprise (read big) move in the dollar's favor in the next few days, that it could be naturally extinguished by this tech level waiting in the wings.

I'll be keeping an eye on both the index's and EURUSD's charts to see if they reach their dollar-side boundaries (EURUSD 1.36) at the same time. I'm expecting probably not, but then the next big level IMO is just above 1.34 with the big rising trend. Regardless, good trading opportunities ahead.
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A break above 1.3700 eyes immediate extension to previous peaks at 1.3726, with likely continuation to head towards 1.3758.
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hefeiddd

Wow, I just came back from vacation and I honestly expected there to have been a little more price action over the past couple of days. As of 15:00 EST, EUR/USD is little changed from yesterday's New York close, which will likely be the theme throughout the rest of the week. However, I think the consolidation will end with a break down towards 1.3600 in the near-term. Though event risk on the US side presents upside potential for EUR/USD, I don't think the pair has the juice to make it past the record highs near 1.3850.
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US data has been quite bullish for EURUSD, which is now targeting 1.3758. Looking ahead to next week, market focus will be on Tuesday's FOMC meeting. Given the continued easing in inflation pressures and widespread weakness in housing and consumption, the Fed's statement could prove to be noticeably less hawkish.
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hefeiddd

EURUSD

hefeiddd

I would still have a difficult time reconciling the fundamentals to a EURUSD - since the US economy is considerably slower than that of the EZ, domestic policies like medicare are going to drive the US government dangerously close to bankruptcy and credit is harder to come by among other reasons - but these have been issues floating around for some time. So, I wouldn't have a very hard time following the technicals for a while.Attached Images






Somebody shoot holes in my plan so that I can play this with a little more conservatively; because right now, I'm getting a little too excited.
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For now, I'm liking EURUSD around 1.3450-75. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable rebound (perhaps to retest 1.36 resistance, or even a new leg higher that breaks through all-time highs), but I'm not going to jump the gun and take a long position at current prices when the dollar index has plowed through resistance and GBPUSD has so quickly sliced through a big rising trend line. I'll remain patient and see if there is a trade on a break below 1.3450 or otherwise if there is consolidation and rebound in the 3450/75 area that would signal a rally.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-16 18:42 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

22 days in the making, 5 days in the breaking. Lack of interest to rally the Euro from here (looking back at the price action in June) and i can only assume that the June low 1.3262 is the target.

Today's bounceseem to back off from the Jan 26 Jun 13 lows which tied in with a series daily support levels seen in the latter part of June. From this I would take it that a break above the t'line is necessary to alleviate the EUR's downside.
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My EURUSD limit order to sell has been adjusted up to 1.3620. I figure that a test of this t'line/neckline may happen sometime soon. My SL has been set to just above the Aug 13th high at 1.3707 and sits 100 pips away from entry. Here's a chart of how I see it at the moment ....
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hefeiddd

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-16 19:02 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

  
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hefeiddd

Blog Archive

• ▼ 2008 (5)
  • ▼ April (2)
    • USD/CHF - Magic of Parallel Lines
    • GBP/USD - Andrew Pitchforks
  • ► January (3)
    • BOE Interest rate outlook
    • ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
    • 2008 First Post

• ► 2007 (36)
  • ► December (1)
    • Merry Christimas 2007
  • ► October (1)
    • What a trader really needs to be success
  • ► September (12)
    • Supply and Demand
    • Keep it Simple
    • Multiple monitors setup continue
    • what is the way to draw a trendline ?
    • Feb Rate Cut to 50bp
    • Interview with Steven Ickow
    • EUR/USD - Long or Short?
    • Multiple monitors setup
    • What Books Do Successful Traders Recommend?
    • GBP/USD - Break and Re-test
    • GBP/USD - one up one down
    • Weekly Chart - August wk 4
  • ► August (13)
    • Median Line Analysis - Part 2
    • Interview with Tim Morge, Market Veteran
    • Club EWI - Which Time Frame Is Best?
    • GBP/USD - Median Line
    • Euro/Swiss - Catch the timing!
    • Euro - Slow And Low
    • GBP/USD - 123
    • GBP/USD - WAIT WAIT WAIT
    • USDCAD hourly chart
    • Setup Setup - Range Setup!
    • USD BULL RUN
    • Path to Pips - Part 1
    • Nonfarm Employment Change
  • ► July (4)
    • Chart Of the Month - July
    • Small short.
    • Correlation !?
    • Action First Reaction Second
  • ► June (1)
    • It is a waiting game
  • ► May (1)
    • Boris and Kathy's FX Blog
  • ► April (1)
    • USD/CHF - Break Out Trade
  • ► March (1)
    • FX Market Hours Widget
  • ► February (1)
    • Previous Action Gives Clue

• ► 2006 (130)
  • ► November (1)
    • EURUSD - 3 Drives to Top
  • ► October (8)
    • EURUSD - Bear in Control Part 2
    • EURUSD - Bear in Control?
    • EURUSD - Weekend Update
    • EURUSD - Buy Update
    • EURUSD - Buy
    • EURUSD - Heading Down - Bouncing Up?
    • EURUSD - Heading Down Cont....
    • EURUSD - Heading Down
  • ► August (9)
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Studies Corner

• Median Lines Probabilities
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hefeiddd

Forex Focus

Germany: Speed Limit Is Now Reality

4/11/2008 6:00:00 PM

Source:Elliott Wave International

Well, it finally happened. The world famous, bullet-fast, no-speed-limit German autobahns may soon become just like every other highway – boring. Is there a correlation between the trend in stocks and highway speed limits? Let's take a closer look. Read More

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 06:08 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Tuesday, September 25, 2007Supply and Demand
Pound 30min:


"When you are about to buy, look to your left and make sure supply is far above. When shorting, look to your left and make sure demand is far below."

Source: A key factor for trading success

Chart Update:



Posted by okl at 12:27 PM 2 comments
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Friday, September 21, 2007Keep it Simple
A very good article by Sam Seiden on supply and demand that I would like to share with you.

"A pro (someone who is consistently profitable) does not sell after a period of selling nor do they buy after a period of buying. Also, they most certainly don't buy into resistance (supply) or sell into support (demand). If they did, they would not be consistently profitable.... "

Click here for the whole article.


Posted by okl at 11:02 PM 0 comments
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Multiple monitors setup continue
Via AVING



Samsung Electronics launches its 19-inch monitor ‘SyncMaster CX940UX’ in Korea market, supporting multi-display function using USB cable.

Containing patented solution for controlling up to six monitors connected by USB cable, the monitors could be easily linked, without complicated installation process using additional graphic card or driver. With its two USB ports, you can also use the monitor as a USB hub.

According to the company, 22-inch model is to be launched in late October.
Part 1


Posted by okl at 2:00 AM 1 comments
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Thursday, September 20, 2007what is the way to draw a trendline ?
Line chart: Locate and connect 2 points on the line chart.


Candlestick chart: When shift to candlestick chart.


Common way: This trendline does not seem describe the price better than the above way.


Or a shorter trendline which seem ok too:


How many ways to skin a cat?


Posted by okl at 12:29 AM 2 comments
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Wednesday, September 19, 2007Feb Rate Cut to 50bp
As refer to previous chart.

EURO 30min:


Swissy 30min:



Posted by okl at 1:01 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, September 18, 2007Interview with Steven Ickow
Steve Ickow interview on CNBC Squawk Box.




Posted by okl at 11:47 PM 0 comments
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EUR/USD - Long or Short?
Euro 30min: With US PPI data coming out and Fed rate decision, we shall adopt wait and see strategy.




Posted by okl at 7:32 PM 0 comments
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Monday, September 17, 2007Multiple monitors setup
Look interesting and easy to setup!






Posted by okl at 4:10 PM 0 comments
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Saturday, September 15, 2007What Books Do Successful Traders Recommend?
Well, didnt update any chart for this week as I was down with flu. So here is a link which you probably interested:
What Books Do Successful Traders Recommend?


Posted by okl at 1:43 AM 0 comments
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Thursday, September 06, 2007GBP/USD - Break and Re-test
GBP/USD 30min: Thursday.



The same setup happens again and again. Nothing suprise.


Posted by okl at 11:16 PM 2 comments
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Tuesday, September 04, 2007GBP/USD - one up one down
Pound 30min: The up trendline holded the price since last week and finally made a break on monday this week. And price has been testing down trendline 3 times and we decided to take a short position on the open of London session.




Posted by okl at 11:22 PM 2 comments
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Saturday, September 01, 2007Weekly Chart - August wk 4
Technical chart for august week 4.

USD/CHF 30min:


GBP/USD 30min:


EUR/USD 30min:



Posted by okl at 5:08 PM 0 comments
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Friday, August 31, 2007Median Line Analysis - Part 2
As refer to the last post here is the update:



Reverse zone triggered?


Posted by okl at 10:55 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, August 30, 2007Interview with Tim Morge, Market Veteran
Something to share today:

Interview with Tim Morge, Market Veteran

"...trading is about finding a way to take small chunks of money out of the market, over and over again..."


Posted by okl at 2:21 AM 0 comments
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Monday, August 27, 2007Club EWI - Which Time Frame Is Best?
Watch Elliott Wave International's Chief Currency Strategist, Jim Martens, answer two questions frequently put to him by subscribers, including which time frame is the best to analyze. Jim is a forex market veteran with more than 15 years of professional experience, so whether you're a newbie or a pro, you will learn something new from him. To watch the video now, all you need is a free Club EWI membership. Take 30 seconds to sign up now and watch the video now, free.

Existing Club EWI members, watch "Which time frame is best?" now.




Posted by okl at 11:39 PM 0 comments
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GBP/USD - Median Line
Sterling 4hrs: Long term view




Posted by okl at 10:39 PM 2 comments
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Friday, August 24, 2007Euro/Swiss - Catch the timing!
It all happened at the open of London session, swiss failed to break the upper trendline, sign of weakness. Euro decided to break above 1.3600 from 1.3550

Euro 30min: Chart update from previous post.



USD/CHF 60min:


USD/CHF 30min:



Posted by okl at 7:21 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, August 23, 2007Euro - Slow And Low
Euro 30min: As I always mention slow and low, price re-test the low and decided to make a U-turn.




Posted by okl at 9:57 PM 1 comments
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Wednesday, August 22, 2007GBP/USD - 123
Sterling 30min: update from previous post. See how the trendline acting as support.




Posted by okl at 8:28 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, August 21, 2007GBP/USD - WAIT WAIT WAIT
Sterling 30min: There was a short opportunity 2 hrs before the start of London session. And if you look at the big circle zone, obviously there is no clue where the price heading to. So always wait for formation to line up before you take out your shotgun.




Posted by okl at 11:10 PM 0 comments
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 06:10 编辑 ]