一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Massey Energy (MEE)


Sears Holding (SHLD)


Simon Property Group (SPG)


Union Pacific (UNP)


As always, click on any image to see a bigger version. Except Abby's, which will cause a recursive deletion of all your files.







Wednesday, June 21, 2006

So Now What?


So what does this mean? Does it mean a bold new bull market has started? Hell, no. Does it mean we've reached the bottom of the ascending channel and are ready to move up again? (See chart below, with the red circles showing a series of higher lows). I sure hope not because that looks like a seven month process before we would start heading down again! Does it mean we simply retraced to a resistance level and can resume the fall down in earnest? Maybe, but it's not guaranteed. Or it could break down and get serious about being bearish.




at 6/21/2006 26 insightful comments
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-10 18:01 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Wednesday, June 21, 2006Ouchie!
Well, the baton has been passed (for the moment) to the bulls. If you think this is a one-day wonder, you might consider the DIA puts with a stop at 112.85 (I've put in green the retraced H&S pattern below). But, make no mistake, this day belongs to the bulls, and it could be the start of a multi-week lift. We'll drill down into it deeper tonight.




at 6/21/2006 46 insightful comments
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Tuesday, June 20, 2006Crossroads Again
Greetings from bucolic Palo Alto, California.

It seems the Dow is clinging to its former support (now resistance) line once again like a magnet. To 99% of the population, the market is having a great day. To those armed with good charts, it's clear to see we're simply at a crossroads again, where it's unclear whether bulls or bears are going to own the short term future.


In the recent past, the Dow's attempt to break out (followed by a failure) has been a critical component to the downdrafts we've been enjoying. The Dow moving above 11,057 would change my tune for the short-term.


If this micro-rally fails and we bust through last week's lows, I'd say the next target for the Dow is about 10,450.

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If this micro-rally fails and we bust through last week's lows, I'd say the next target for the Dow is about 10,450.


A reasonable downside target for the S&P would be about 1,170.


And the Transports at about 4,300.


I am quite confident we are going to end the year below 10,000 on the Dow. As for the longer term (say, 2007 through 2009) my crystal ball is really fuzzy. A down market, yes, but how far down is unclear. So let's take it a day at a time, shall we?
at 6/20/2006 25 insightful comments
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Monday, June 19, 2006A Clear & Present Danger
OK, this isn't the slam dunk I was hoping. The market was weak today (down about 100 points) but has recovered some. Worse, there is a plausible argument to be made for a short term bottom at this point. Notice this bottoming formation. The market has to be firmly and decisively weak tomorrow. Otherwise the bulls might be slowly pulling that baton away.




at 6/19/2006 23 insightful comments
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Attack
Here's what I'd suggest. Buy as many July DIA puts as you can possibly afford. Set a contigent stop at any price over 110.94. Simple as that.

Die, bulls, die!




at 6/19/2006 13 insightful comments
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Friday, June 16, 2006Good Enough.....
The market's rebound fizzled out today. This is how rallies are in bear markets - quick, fast, explosive, and short-lived. The Dow ended up basically unchanged today (down .62 points) - here's the intraday graph, where it just bobbled up and down through the day.


What's fascinating is that the resistance it's bumped up against is the very long term trendline going back several years; the blue line you see in the intraday graph corresponds to the long blue line on this daily multi-year graph.


I've put green highlight at the next target for the Dow - about 10,450 or so. It's based on both Fib and classic H&S measurements. Plus it feels right.


I've likewise laid out a target for the S&P.

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I've likewise laid out a target for the S&P.


Stock analysts are paid a fortune each year for completely worthless advice. I'm going to give you some valuable suggestions for $0. Shorts. Or Puts. Enjoy the ride. Here we go:

Bear Stearns (BSC)


Caterpillar (CAT)


Cummings (CMI)

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Cummings (CMI)


Diamond Trust (DIA)


Hewlett Packard (HPQ)


Monsanto (MON)

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Monsanto (MON)


Oil Services Sector (OIH)


Union Pacific (UNP)


Wellpoint (WLP)


Let's maul 'em next week, guys 'n' gals. Have a good one...
at 6/16/2006 22 insightful comments
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Thursday, June 15, 2006Perfectly Predictable Retracement
Here's what I wrote last night:


Looking at the minute-by-minute intraday chart of the $INDU over the past 30 days, and you can see the market exactly touched the descending trendline. And I did not draw this trendline today, people! I drew it a few days back, so this isn't a retrofitted drawing. It's the truth.


The fear got squeezed out of the $VIX in just one session. Utterly crushed.


If the market is down tomorrow and continues down next week, you seriously need to send me a box of Krispy Kremes or something. Because I think that's what's going to happen next.


at 6/15/2006 23 insightful comments
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Answering Your Questions







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Wednesday, June 14, 2006As I Was Saying....
Well. There's our bounce.

As I mentioned late last night, I believed today would be the bounce day. In spite of some serious struggle up and down, the bulls finally got their act together and finished with a Dow close of over 100 points on the plus side.

This will be heartening to the bulls, but they will still be on the defensive. This is a psychological game, folks. It's going to take another nice up day or two before all this worrying about doomsday subsides. People have very short term memories.

At this point, I'd suggest either staying out of the market completely until it's ready to short again or, if you're aggressive, going to the long side. There are some good charts out there for short term long plays. Here's DuPont (DD) for instance with a nice clean ascending channel.


Another stock that's suffered recently and is at its ascending trendline is Southern Copper (PCU). These kinds of charts represent relatively low-risk short-term plays.


I'd say the Dow's probably got another 200 to 250 points on the upside. I imagine we will get back over the north side of 11,000 on the Dow which will cause all the predictable "recaptured" headlines. We need to give the bulls enough rope (and hope) to hang themselves with. So let them have a run at it. The red circle illustrates my retracement target.


The S&P 500 has probably about 20 to 25 points to the upside before the bears can crash this party again. I've again illustrated it with a circle showing the retracement target.


I appreciate all the nice notes and thank-yous I've been receiving. I enjoy writing this and am glad some people are benefitting from my thoughts on trading. Take care.


at 6/14/2006 13 insightful comments
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