一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

The once lofty Transports hit a double top and have a ways to go before hitting their ascending trendline for support.


And the one that's going to shock people the most is the $XAU - I see the potential here for an enormous collapse, provided the head & shoulders completes and breaks its neckline. We could head down to the ~$70 zone here, folks. OK, OK, start throwing things at me now.


You may wonder where all the individual stock charts are. There are simply too many of them! I have 47 discrete positions now, each one of which is really good, and a lot of other new positions to open. There is so much great stuff out there! So I just wanted to give you yet another overview of the indices, this time for a longer term perspective.

Have a good Friday, everybody. See you on the other side.
at 7/13/2006 44 insightful comments
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Wednesday, July 12, 2006Crrrrrrrrrrrrrack........
Maybe, just maybe, we're finally getting some direction. I'm starting to like this market again. And there are some really juicy-looking tops that appear to be in the making, including crude oil, copper, and gold. No, you haven't stumbled onto a commodity blog.....it's just that the fall of those market make for some very nice equity collapses as well.

The $INDU clearly broke its short-term trendline today. The next stop, highlighted in light blue, is to fall to that Fibonacci level (which also happens to be the most recent low). If it cuts below this level, that's fantastic, because that will put the "higher highs/higher lows" channel into its grave.


The S&P 500 is still within the confines of an ascending channel, but it's looking weak. The next stop, I'd say, is that highlighted blue area, which will not only mean that the ascending channel has been busted but will also set up a new goal: the next Fibonacci level lower.


Looking at the Gold/Silver index ($XAU), there appears to be a head and shoulders in the making. Now I realize anticipating patterns is a big no-no. (I also realize I don't exactly have the steady hands of a surgeon, hence the not-so-great drawing in red where I'm trying to show the pattern). But I think this is enough of a low-risk/high-reward ratio here to bend that old rule.


I'd love to show more charts, but it's 2:30 in the morning, people! I gotta get some beauty sleep!


at 7/12/2006 46 insightful comments
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Tuesday, July 11, 2006Breakdown then Upswing
Let's face it. Nobody likes this market. Not bulls. Not bears. Nobody. And why is that? Because nobody owns this market! It's in this exasperating no man's land of equilibrium. This market has been trendless so long that I don't think people even remember what a trending market feels like!

Early today, the $INDU looked like it was nicely on its way to some downward action. It was down about 60 points and had clearly busted beneath its short term ascending trendline. Then it spend the rest of the day firming up with an over 100 point reversal. It closed up about 31 points. Bummer.

If you look at the graph below of the $INDU, you can see its meandering nature recently. My hope is that the sloppiness marked at point "A" which preceded a big decline is similar to what we're seeing now with "B". After all, the ascending trendline was broken today. There's no doubt about that. So there's been some damage done. But the bears didn't stay in charge.


The $NDX presents a possibly more bullish scenario. It seems to have been hammering out a bit of a short term base recently. It certainly appears that there would have to be some pretty hefty bad news (nasty earnings from a major name, for example) to break the $NDX out of its funk and push it even lower. Barring that, it may have shored itself up for a short-term rally.


Lastly, the $SPX (S&P 500) has a pattern similar to the $INDU, with the difference being that the recent uptrend hasn't been broken. I've highlighted this general uptrend in blue.


I've provided a lot of individual charts lately, so I'm going to leave my commentary as-is at this point. I want to see at least some semblance of direction before getting more concrete.

My hat is off to those of you who post regularly in the comments section. It keeps this place jumping!


at 7/11/2006 44 insightful comments
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Tuesday, July 11, 2006On the Cusp of Short Term Support
I'm sorry it's been a couple of days since I did a post. I've been very occupied with getting the beta test of our new product done (I have a real job too, ya know!)

The Dow Jones 30 is right on the cusp of breaking through short-term support. Indeed, I'm typing frantically because on my second screen I can see the $INDU getting closer and closer to that trendline. I'd hate to post this entry after the fact!


A longer-term perspective on the Dow shows the next two "stopping points" on the way down, should short term support be broken.


The NASDAQ, which has been extremely weak, is also on the verge on pushing past one of its Fib levels down to the next stop on the elevator.


OK, maybe I'll post more, but I want to click the Publish button before the Dow cracks!


at 7/11/2006 36 insightful comments
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Saturday, July 08, 2006Post-It to Self: Short Everything!
Thanks, 3M, for helping take the market down Friday. I've mentioned MMM as a great short idea more than once. Glad it finally succumbed.

My disposition on the market has never been sunnier. I am shorting everything I can. Buying puts on everything I can. Owning nothing. My belief is the market is heading for a sustained, profound fall and my intent is to profit handsomely from its demise.

There are certain sectors that seem especially juicy for a fall. Oil services. Gold and Silver. And, to keep it simple, just the good ol' S&P 500. Here are all the positions on which I own puts (note to newbies: click on any image to see a much larger image):


Looking at the DIA with bearish goggles shows a well-formed head & shoulders:


You can see the same market as bullish, since there have been a trio of progressively higher highs. Even with this point of view, you can see the market is headed for some very serious resistance to overcome:


THe OEX chart is noted as:


Oil Services (OIH) have a ton of high-volume options, and thus represents another great put-buying opportunity given the state of this chart:

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Oil Services (OIH) have a ton of high-volume options, and thus represents another great put-buying opportunity given the state of this chart:


The S&P 500 is falling away beautifully from its median line:


XAU (Gold & Silver) looks at the top of a right shoulder on a forming head & shoulders pattern:


The XLE (oil sector) represents great opportunity for short selling in the stocks that comprise it, as well as the XLE (or OIH) itself:

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The XLE (oil sector) represents great opportunity for short selling in the stocks that comprise it, as well as the XLE (or OIH) itself:


CX:


Sugar water seller HANS seems primed for a fall:


TEX appears to have double-topped:

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TEX appears to have double-topped:


TXT:


This upcoming week should be thrilling. Good luck!
at 7/08/2006 59 insightful comments
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Wednesday, July 05, 2006As the Air Leaks Out....

Well, I guess that puts the nail on the coffin of any Enron talk. Unless Skilling jumps off a bridge or something. Adios, Lay-man. We knew thee all too well.


I've got some more short (or put-buying) recommendations for those who dare. Unless they want to hop on the GOOG/HANS/NTRI train with users named after natural disasters. For the rest of us, I present these symbols and stop prices....

BNI 84.88


DO 88.25


DVN 65.25


ET 23.46

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ET 23.46


LSS 58.30


MLM 95.15


NXY 59.10

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