一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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NXY 59.10


XLE 60.15


at 7/05/2006 37 insightful comments
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Monday, July 03, 2006Charts and Stops
Happy Independence Day. I hope no one blew their paws off with fireworks this weekend (mangled hooves are OK, however). I wanted to offer some attractive charts for put purchases with some stop prices (e.g. should the underlying stock cross above the cited price, get out at once!). Of course, regular short sales are fine too. Lower risk, but lower reward. Here we go:

APA (stop price 75.66)


CLF (stop price 41)


DIA (stop price 112.85)


EOG (stop price 79.24)

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EOG (stop price 79.24)


RIG (stop price 84.05)


SHLD (stop price 167.95)


UNP (stop price 95.20)


The market has not been kind to bears recently. At this point, I see one of two things is going to happen in the next couple of weeks (maybe even sooner). Either the market is going to resume its downtrend. And if it does so, it had better start soon, such as before this week is over! Or the market has found newfound strength and is going to press higher. This'll really piss your buddy Tim off. Of course, the market doesn't care.

The Dow Transports is heading toward its all-time high. A double top here would be nice. If it pushes on to another, newer high, that's not good news for the bears. The Dow Composite is likewise showing surprising strength.

Many charts I look at, including larger indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow 30, appear to be shaping up to begin their downturn once more. This would keep the all-important lower lows/lower highs intact. If the market's recent strength has been simply a countertrend rally in the midst of a bear market, that's dandy. If this strength is legitimate, however, and the bear market is a phantom, it's time to reconsider! By the end of this week, it should be more clear.
at 7/03/2006 35 insightful comments
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Thursday, June 29, 2006Opportunities Abound
I'm not worried.

See the serene look on my face? That's the look of a calm bear. I take today's huge gains on the market in stride.

Sure, I got stopped out of a lot of positions. But that's the purposes of stops. It saved me a lot of money. Losing money is OK. Losing a lot of money by not having stops, hoping things will turn around somehow, is not OK.

I'm not going to offer any specific stock suggestions, although, believe me, tons of them abound. Just a quick market overview in the face of a very ugly rise in the market.

The Dow, up well over 200 points today, made the "topping" pattern (intraday) mentioned a few days ago moot. However, it is still well positioned for a fall. It's pushed up against its former support line. I'm not sure how the weirdness of "day before the July 4 weekend" and "short July 3 trading day" will muck things up, but we have to ignore such circumstances and consider them ordinary trading days.

Now, if the Dow pushes based the zone I've put in green, it's a very different story. But we aren't there yet, and we may never be.


The S&P likewise is still in good shape for the bears. Notice how the succession of lower highs and lower lows is still very much intact, even with today's explosive rise.


Same deal with the S&P 100 (the $OEX). It broke below its trendline. It is clawing its way back. But it's still in a bearish situation.


The Dow Transportation Index is a bit of a surprise. It had a breakdown earlier, but it's managed to shake it off. I'd say this is the least bearish of the major market indexes.

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The Dow Transportation Index is a bit of a surprise. It had a breakdown earlier, but it's managed to shake it off. I'd say this is the least bearish of the major market indexes.


One nice thing about today's action is that it creamed the $VIX, which means that puts on the S&P just got a lot cheaper (in both intrinsic and premium terms). Notice how the $VIX has reverted to the median of its linear regression channel.


You might want to look in oil services for good short opportunities - or the OIH itself. To me it seems like this has shaped up as a beautiful bearish play.


The same analysis applies to the Gold and Silver ($XAU) index. A rapid retracement to a broken support line. Looks great to me for some puts.


Take heart, bears. In the summer of 2000, even though in retrospect we can see the market was already going into bear mode, lots of stocks were reaching new lifetime highs. The bear market started in March 2000, but people didn't really cave in to it until later that year. Our best hope at this point for some serious damage will come from disappointing Q2 earnings, which start reporting next month.

In the meantime, don't let the fact that the 17th interest rate hike is probably the last for a while substitute as a great reason to rush into the U.S. equity market. It's idiotic.
at 6/29/2006 42 insightful comments
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If you are feeling brave, this might be a great time to pick up some DIA puts. This huge rally has pushed the Dow up against a trendline, and let's face it, it's hard to resist selling into a 200+ point rally.




at 6/29/2006 34 insightful comments
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Fib Wars
As the Fed's 2:15 decision looms, the market is doing something pretty fascinating. Looking at the S&P 500 index vis a vis the long-term Fibonacci line, it seems that the 61.86% retracement constitutes the current line in the sand (see green shaded area going back over half a decade).


You can see how significant this line is by looking at the recent daily history of the S&P. I've circled those areas where the market is flopping between considering the line either support or resistance (it is currently support, given today's strong upward movement).


To me, the intraday is the most fascinating of all. It never ceases to amaze me the power these Fibs have. This line goes back to early 2000! And yet is still holds power over the market.




at 6/29/2006 12 insightful comments
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Thursday, June 29, 2006What Would Constitute a Reversal
This morning's triple-point rally on the Dow puts the short-term bearish case at risk. If the Dow crosses above 11,131 (which is possibly in the post-Fed gymnastics) it will create a small series of higher highs and higher lows, as well as pushing the index well past a Fib retracement, that will seriously damage the short-term bearish stance. I've drawn an arrow to illustrate the possible new trend, should that level be crossed.




at 6/29/2006 8 insightful comments
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Tuesday, June 27, 2006Powers of Ten
When I was a young boy, I fondly remember being transfixed by the short feature Powers of Ten shown at the National Air & Space Museum in Washington (the link shows you the same film). It's a completely mesmerizing piece to watch, even though it's about thirty years old and not exactly high tech (the cheesy post-60s spooky-synth music is a bit much).

This is the inspiration behind my posting today - to get a look at the big picture. In this case, the S&P 500 (which is a good enough proxy for the U.S. stock market in general). I'm delighted the Dow lost 120, of course, but I wanted to not make a daily report and instead remind us all what the theme behind my investing philosophy is: to take full advantage of what is likely going to be an extremely bearish market for years to come.

Let us first look at the past 75 years of the index, going back to the depths of the Great Depression. I've embellished this chart with a number of drawn objects as well as major historical themes. As always, click on any image to see a much bigger version.

In this instance, as you can see, there is plenty of room to fall. The bull market from 1982 through 2000 didn't create much in the way of a support zone anywhere, and in spite of what people might regard as a brutal bear market from 2001 to 2003, we are still at some extremely rich levels.


Now let's zoom in (hence the Powers of Ten theme) to the past decade or so. Here you can more plainly see the detail of the Fibonacci Fan as it relates to recent history, as well as the Fibonacci retracement levels. I've drawn an area to illustrate the likely path and speed of the market's fall for the next year or so.



Zooming closer, we see the support levels dictated by the Fibonacci lines. I've circled some likely zones to where the market will successively fall if weakness continues.

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Zooming closer, we see the support levels dictated by the Fibonacci lines. I've circled some likely zones to where the market will successively fall if weakness continues.



To me, the graph below is currently the most interesting, since it plainly illustrates how the index has not been able to conquer its current resistance level, and indeed, it has started to weaken. It would not takea lot of damage to the market for it to cut through that supporting trendline you see.



Finally, the minute-by-minute intraday graph gives us a view into the rounded top that has been forming. I've drawn a red line to illustrate the level which constitutes the top. If prices fall cleanly below this level, the odds of a continued fall are much stronger.


Everyone's fixated on Bernanke and Thursday's announcement. How tedious. Look, at some point, interest rate increases will stop. It won't save the market. Any more than 0% interest in Japan saved the Nikkei all through the 1990s. Expect the same, stupid spasm on Thursday after they announce that rates are up, or rates or down, or rates or unchanged, or Bernanke is going to shave off that stupid beard. It won't really matter in the end. It's just noise.
at 6/27/2006 22 insightful comments
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Monday, June 26, 2006Stalemate
Boooooooooooring......

Earlier this month, I mentioned how things seemed almost "too easy" for bears. Well, I would like to have that problem again.

We seem to be, over the past several weeks, sort of stuck around 11,000 on the Dow. The red line I've drawn divides bullish control (upper) and bearish control (lower). It's just a struggle between the upper and lower halves.


I imagine until there's some clearer direction, my posts will be less verbose and less frequent. Because I don't want to talk about the market just for the sake of talking about it. As long as we're stuck in neutral, there's not a heck of a lot to say.


at 6/26/2006 41 insightful comments
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Monday, June 26, 2006Carnival
From time to time I find an option that seems to be just about free.

One I've come across this time is Carnival (symbol CCL). Here's the chart; no broken trendline yet, but there seems to be a topping pattern completed (highlighted in green) which also seems similar to an earlier top that preceded a fall (other, earlier green).


At the moment, the January 2007 $50 put on this has an ask price of $9.40 (its symbol is .CCLMJ), and the stock is at $41. That means you are paying 40 cents for the time premium between now and seven months from now. To me that's ridiculous, and a great bargain. I bought some of these thing morning with a contingent stop price of $49.30


at 6/26/2006 4 insightful comments
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Q&A Forum


Here are some recent questions (and my answers) to recent posts. Thanks for your patience!

Mike: "Based in part on your targets and some things I've read from other experts I trust I entered into some short positions toward the end of the day...not a ton but some. My question is ... is there something specific you'd look for during the day tomorrow that would change your tune? For instance if Dow jumps way above this line? Like to know if there is a point at which you would exit your shorts and change your stance to one of an intermediate term rally as a few other sites expect (3 to 6 weeks)."

At this point, I'd step aside (and be very confused) if:

+ The Dow crossed over 11,132
+ The S&P 500 crossed over 1,259
+ The NASDAQ 100 crossed over 1,586

Rob: "Hi Tim, would you please tell us what positions (other than GOOG) you are currently in and what are some on your watch list?"

My positions are listed below. As for my watch lists, you can subscribe to them for free if you use Prophet.net by going to the Shared Watch List page. My screen name is "Blue Knight"


Brian: "Has BSC invalidated it's Head/Shoulders pattern by breaking up over the neckline after breaking down below it?"

I don't really consider this a head and shoulders pattern. I would say the downtrend of this stock remains intact, in spite of last week's strong performance. The price crossing above $139 would change that view.


Andrew: "1. Do you have a timeline for the release of ProphetCharts?










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Monday, June 26, 2006Carnival
From time to time I find an option that seems to be just about free.






Andrew: "1. Do you have a timeline for the release of ProphetCharts?










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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-10 17:55 编辑 ]

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Thursday, June 22, 2006A Few Juicy Charts
Between my recent mentions of teenage sex, "juicy charts", and Abby Joseph Cohen, you may all thing I'm sex-obsessed, but it's not true. My true self returns. Here are some lovely short ideas for you.

Boeing (BA)


Bear Stearns (BSC)


Cummins (CMI)


Massey Energy (MEE)