一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-27 19:04 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I've got puts on NutriSystem, whose stock is finally starting to slip some.


I also augmented by CVX position by buying some XOM puts.


That's it for today. I think some of the snarky comments have me less inspired to write a long, thoughtful post. I've got other things to do.
at 7/17/2007 73 insightful comments
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Labels: cme, intc, ntri, xom

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-27 19:06 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-27 19:10 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Monday, July 16, 2007Any Gas Left?
Dow 14k is in the air, and it's all the pundits seem to want to talk about. I've already mentioned here that my 'upper limit' is 14,100 on the Dow based on its breakout. Even though the Dow was up today to yet another lifetime high, the broader indexes were down, and my overall portfolio climbed by 5%.


When I showed the "mother of all double tops" by way of the S&P 500 graph, many people remarked that the S&P was cheap since profits have doubled on the S&P 500 since the prior high in 2000.

That may be true, but the logic is flawed. That's the equivalent of a Republican declaring the White House could be won in 2008 if only they could find a candidate twice as popular as George Bush. Just because something is double something else doesn't mean the opposite result will take place. If the P/E in 2000 was 500, would a P/E of 250 make it a bargain? Of course, those weren't the real P/Es, but hopefully you can see my point.


The daily chart of the Dow 30 helps illustrate how this market is in the toppermost of the poppermost. I see a fall ahead.


On an intraday basis, it's clear to see how strong the price movement has been since the breakout. I've tinted in the target zone. We have moved through most of the pain already.


A daily chart of the NDX - which I've been avoiding for many months - suggests this graph could be running out of gas too.


My favorite, the Russell 2000, edged down nicely today.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-27 19:14 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-27 19:16 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

My favorite, the Russell 2000, edged down nicely today.


Even though the Gold and Silver index ($XAU) broke above its channel, recently history indicates the RSI has been a reliable bearish indicator; note the areas I've tinted and the subsequent price action.


Akamai (AKAM) looks like a potential bearish play; note the series of lower highs.


ALB also looks nice for a short.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-27 19:26 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:01 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

ALB also looks nice for a short.


I bought puts on Colgate (CL) today.


I continue to hold onto my CROX puts, which are doing OK.


I also bought puts on CVX this morning. So far, so good.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:02 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:05 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I also bought puts on CVX this morning. So far, so good.


And I shorted DST (a busy day.....)


I mentioned puts on FXI last week. These look better than ever.


JC Penney has been a favorite of mine recently. My puts on this stock edged higher today due to the stock's weakness.


at 7/16/2007 35 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $ndx, $rut, $xau, akam, alb, clf, crox, cvx, dst, fxi, jcp


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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:06 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:09 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Friday, July 13, 2007Is 14K Up Next?
On the whole, it was a great week for the bulls. The Dow, the S&P, the Major Market Index, and a host of others climbed to all-time, never-seen-before high prices. So where does it stop?

The Dow's high on June 1 was about 13,690. Its low on June 8th was about 13,250. That's a 440 point difference, and that's the approximate range of the rectangle out of which it just emerged. By traditional measurement, you take the high of 13,690 and add 440 points and get the target of 14,130. That's 223 points or 1.6% away. It won't take much to get us there.


The Russell pushed into new high territory, but by the slimmest of margins. I'm not sure I would call this a breakout on this particular index yet.


I rarely use arithmetic scale, but I am going to do so here on the S&P 500 to make a point. What I want you to see is the amazing drama that has taken place over the past quarter century, with the S&P exploding to a high in January 2000, collapsing terribly in a bear market, and then flying yet again to the prior high. Is this the mother of all double tops? Only time will tell. Although the bulls that visit this blog certainly would say no.


My puts on Baker Hughes (BHI) did well today. The oil service sector seems like it may be ready to drop a while.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:11 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:13 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

My puts on Baker Hughes (BHI) did well today. The oil service sector seems like it may be ready to drop a while.


Colgate Palmolive (CL) has tipped its hand by cracking beneath that supporting trendline. It also seems to be in the throes of a triple top. I'm going to buy puts on this Monday morning.


My CROX puts went up some today, as this high-flying stock actually eased a bit in an otherwise very strong market.


Chevron (CVX) printed a terrific shooting star candlestick today.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:14 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:15 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Chevron (CVX) printed a terrific shooting star candlestick today.


If you are dying to short (or buy puts) on a Dow stock, you could do worse than IBM.


My puts on Radio Shack (RSH) had a nice day too. It's pretty easy to see why. New highs on the market mean ecstasy without the need for batteries. Demand drops. Sales drop. Battery Club suffers.


Have a good weekend.


at 7/13/2007 70 insightful comments
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Labels: bhi, clf, crox, cvx, ibm, rsh

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:16 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:19 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Thursday, July 12, 2007Melt-Up
Well, it finally happened. We broke out of the consolidation that's been grinding along for six weeks now. The action was just bizarre. I suppose shorts were getting squeezed left and right, and bulls were jumping in with both feet. It was like an orgy of buying.


Based on traditional technical measures, the target for the Dow at this point would be 14,100. I'm not saying it will necessarily get there, but this has been a really clean consolidation, and it seems a sensible conclusion. Particularly given the strong psychological import of the Big Round Number 14,000.


My index-of-choice for puts, $RUT, wasn't as strong as the other indexes, and luckily I was kicked out of my puts the moment the market opened (sparing me most of the day's strength). The high price of 856.39 is awfully close.


Looking at a long-term S&P 500 chart, you can see the index is approaching its lifetime high reached nearly eight years ago.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:19 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:22 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Looking at a long-term S&P 500 chart, you can see the index is approaching its lifetime high reached nearly eight years ago.


Now, a moment about the comments section. I totally expected the bulls to rip off their bras and swing them over their heads today - - that's fine, because I would be just as obnoxious if the Dow was down 283 points. There's one particularly poster who doesn't crawl out from under his rock very often, but when he does, his posts are little more than hate and vitriol (he is hiding behind a screen name, but his name is Ryan and he lives in Phoenix). I look forward to being on a new blog platform where I can block sub-humans like this.

In the middle of 1999, Newsweek proved once again the "cultural saturation" rule by having the cover below. The market still had six more months of climbing before it started eroding (not going into full bear mode for another six months after that), but it definitely was a signal of a looming top.


A new best-seller reminds me of the same cultural phenomenon. I actually picked up this book a few days ago and am looking forward to reading it. I guess I'm a frustrated sociologist.


The $VIX has been beaten back into submission again. I'm surprised how cheap puts are these days. I am seeing lots of November puts that are priced no higher than August puts - - - time premium seems to be about zero for some stocks. In most cases, I am seeing in-the-money puts that are barely higher priced than their intrinsic value. So they're basically giving them away.


Apache (APA) is a pretty promising bullish pattern.


And Blockbuster (BBI), which I've mentioned before, also looks bullish.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:23 编辑 ]