一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:09 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Friday, July 13, 2007Is 14K Up Next?
On the whole, it was a great week for the bulls. The Dow, the S&P, the Major Market Index, and a host of others climbed to all-time, never-seen-before high prices. So where does it stop?

The Dow's high on June 1 was about 13,690. Its low on June 8th was about 13,250. That's a 440 point difference, and that's the approximate range of the rectangle out of which it just emerged. By traditional measurement, you take the high of 13,690 and add 440 points and get the target of 14,130. That's 223 points or 1.6% away. It won't take much to get us there.


The Russell pushed into new high territory, but by the slimmest of margins. I'm not sure I would call this a breakout on this particular index yet.


I rarely use arithmetic scale, but I am going to do so here on the S&P 500 to make a point. What I want you to see is the amazing drama that has taken place over the past quarter century, with the S&P exploding to a high in January 2000, collapsing terribly in a bear market, and then flying yet again to the prior high. Is this the mother of all double tops? Only time will tell. Although the bulls that visit this blog certainly would say no.


My puts on Baker Hughes (BHI) did well today. The oil service sector seems like it may be ready to drop a while.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:11 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:13 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

My puts on Baker Hughes (BHI) did well today. The oil service sector seems like it may be ready to drop a while.


Colgate Palmolive (CL) has tipped its hand by cracking beneath that supporting trendline. It also seems to be in the throes of a triple top. I'm going to buy puts on this Monday morning.


My CROX puts went up some today, as this high-flying stock actually eased a bit in an otherwise very strong market.


Chevron (CVX) printed a terrific shooting star candlestick today.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:14 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:15 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Chevron (CVX) printed a terrific shooting star candlestick today.


If you are dying to short (or buy puts) on a Dow stock, you could do worse than IBM.


My puts on Radio Shack (RSH) had a nice day too. It's pretty easy to see why. New highs on the market mean ecstasy without the need for batteries. Demand drops. Sales drop. Battery Club suffers.


Have a good weekend.


at 7/13/2007 70 insightful comments
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Labels: bhi, clf, crox, cvx, ibm, rsh

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:16 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:19 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Thursday, July 12, 2007Melt-Up
Well, it finally happened. We broke out of the consolidation that's been grinding along for six weeks now. The action was just bizarre. I suppose shorts were getting squeezed left and right, and bulls were jumping in with both feet. It was like an orgy of buying.


Based on traditional technical measures, the target for the Dow at this point would be 14,100. I'm not saying it will necessarily get there, but this has been a really clean consolidation, and it seems a sensible conclusion. Particularly given the strong psychological import of the Big Round Number 14,000.


My index-of-choice for puts, $RUT, wasn't as strong as the other indexes, and luckily I was kicked out of my puts the moment the market opened (sparing me most of the day's strength). The high price of 856.39 is awfully close.


Looking at a long-term S&P 500 chart, you can see the index is approaching its lifetime high reached nearly eight years ago.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:19 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:22 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Looking at a long-term S&P 500 chart, you can see the index is approaching its lifetime high reached nearly eight years ago.


Now, a moment about the comments section. I totally expected the bulls to rip off their bras and swing them over their heads today - - that's fine, because I would be just as obnoxious if the Dow was down 283 points. There's one particularly poster who doesn't crawl out from under his rock very often, but when he does, his posts are little more than hate and vitriol (he is hiding behind a screen name, but his name is Ryan and he lives in Phoenix). I look forward to being on a new blog platform where I can block sub-humans like this.

In the middle of 1999, Newsweek proved once again the "cultural saturation" rule by having the cover below. The market still had six more months of climbing before it started eroding (not going into full bear mode for another six months after that), but it definitely was a signal of a looming top.


A new best-seller reminds me of the same cultural phenomenon. I actually picked up this book a few days ago and am looking forward to reading it. I guess I'm a frustrated sociologist.


The $VIX has been beaten back into submission again. I'm surprised how cheap puts are these days. I am seeing lots of November puts that are priced no higher than August puts - - - time premium seems to be about zero for some stocks. In most cases, I am seeing in-the-money puts that are barely higher priced than their intrinsic value. So they're basically giving them away.


Apache (APA) is a pretty promising bullish pattern.


And Blockbuster (BBI), which I've mentioned before, also looks bullish.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:23 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:26 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

And Blockbuster (BBI), which I've mentioned before, also looks bullish.


I think JC Penney (JCP) is at or near its full retracement today. I'm ready to jump into puts on this one again.


There are three stocks that look surprising flaccid given today's action. The first is Baidu (BIDU), which is part of beanie's bombast.


The second is CROX - - I admit, I see the shoes everywhere (ahem - I only wear Eccos, in case you were going to send me some shoes) but I still think it's a fad stock.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:27 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:29 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

The second is CROX - - I admit, I see the shoes everywhere (ahem - I only wear Eccos, in case you were going to send me some shoes) but I still think it's a fad stock.


And finally, Google (GOOG). For a stock like Google to go up 0.16% on a day like this is pretty lame.


Today's rally was supposedly prompted by strong consumer spending. For a real view of American Consumerism, enjoy this clip from George Carlin - - the portion on consumers starts at the 4:00 minute mark.




Careful What You Wish For!
A rare intraday post......

I said in my post from late last night that I wish the market would break out of its consolidation and give us some direction. Well - it did - to the upside!

For the Dow Jones at least, there's no doubt about it - this is a clear breakout. I guess this market won't stop going up until every last public company has been acquired and made private. Then we can just shut the equity markets down for good.




at 7/12/2007 54 insightful comments
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Labels: new highs



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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:32 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:40 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Wednesday, July 11, 2007NYSE, NASDAQ, GODOT
Sweet Jesus on a Biscuit......can we please get some direction? Yesterday's 148 point drop on the Dow was encouraging. But follow through? Of course not. We bounce back today by half that amount. Zzzzzzzzzz. Give us as break - literally - through one of those price lines!


Oh, a bit of housekeeping. I've made a couple of cosmetic improvements. First, at the request of a comment made to the previous post, I have reduced the number of posts displayed down from 7 to 3. That will speed up loading time and make for a shorter page to scroll. Second, I've changed the scheme of my charts to what I think is a much cleaner appearance. Let me know what you think. Oh, and in case you've forgotten, click on any chart to see a much bigger version.

Back to charts. The Russell 2000 is in the same boat every other index is - if it breaks beneath a very clearly defined support level, it's time to rock and roll. If it continues to fart around in this range, it's just going to keep boring the pants off of everyone. And if it breaks into new high territory, that's when I climb to the top span of the Golden Gate.


I bought a bunch of puts on the $XAU today based on its price position relative to its well-defined channel. A stop-loss on this would not be expensive, since we're mushed up so high against the channel.


Cardinal Health (CAH), mentioned here numerous times, is on the cusp of a breakdown. But until it goes beneath that neckline, it is a pattern in formation, and nothing more.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:42 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:43 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Cardinal Health (CAH), mentioned here numerous times, is on the cusp of a breakdown. But until it goes beneath that neckline, it is a pattern in formation, and nothing more.


I found the puts on Chinese equity-based FXI were fairly heavily traded, so I acquired some today.


I mentioned McGraw Hill (MHP) as a short last month, and it has lost about 15% of its value since then.


Now, as you know, I acquired a couple of iPhones on National Steve Jobs Day, and I madeit. It's a terrific product. There's a ton of wizardy and magic in it, and I'm proud to show it off.

But, Lord almighty, this thing has bugs. Bugs, bugs, bugs! And I'm not even a heavy user. I just checked, and I've used it a total of 9 hours and 36 minutes. That's decent, but it's hardly an exhaustive field test.



at 7/11/2007 17 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, cah, fxi, iphone, mhp

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:44 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:46 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Tuesday, July 10, 2007Spock Grok
I was going to write a huge entry today about emotions and the market. But it's already four hours after the close, and I'm still stung with guilt pangs from such a late posting last night, so I'm going to leave my essay for another day.

I will say, though, that I yearn to be like Spock during times like this. The problem with these range-bound markets is that, for a bear, (a) when at the low end of the range, I'm flush with profits, I'm totally committed to my positions, and I'm into way more risk than I should be since I've been doing so well; yet (b) when at the high end of the range, when I'm sacrificed some or all of those aforementioned profits, I'm skittish and risk-averse. Obviously being just the opposite would be helpful on both counts. Spock is a cool customer.


Of course, we're all only human, and markets run completely contrary to human nature. That's why there are a handful of big winners - - those that defy the greed/fear trap - - and the rest of us are just schlubs. Let's face it - emotions and the financial markets are just another example of one of life's bad combinations.


I haven't mentioned China in a while. I'll say this.........long term, I think China is going to be king of the world, or at least a prince. Whereas its neighbor Russia will, in my opinion, collapse back into socialism or communism within the next decade. My optimism for China's long-term prospect's aside, what we're witnessing now is a bubble, pure and simple, driven largely by embarrassing naievete on a greedy yet clueless investing public.


The Dow fell 148 points today. It doesn't mean much until and unless we break 13,250. If we do, I'll probably return to being the arrogant pr*ck you all love so dearly. Until then, my hands remain peacefully clasped on my lap.


The Russell 2000 had an even worse (that is, better) day. My index puts on the $RUT did great.


The S&P is approaching the re-entry point on that channel is busted above a number of weeks ago.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:47 编辑 ]