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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:42 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
At the moment the wave counting is against the US dollar (refer to Figures below). If the supposition is confirmed a new stage of the weakening of the US dollar may begin in the near term.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The whole construction that has been forming since March can be easily presented in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8 of my book).

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Its sizes corresponds to the supposed wave four 4 of a large upward impulse. If the supposition is true the price rise in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5) should be expected in the near term. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Perhaps the price won’t have enough strength to complete the second leg of the supposed zigzag 4 in the form of a full diagonal triangle (wave [c] of 4). In this case a diagonal triangle with a truncated fifth (v) of [c] of 4 may form or the variant with the horizontal triangle may be confirmed (refer to Figure 4, below).

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

In both cases it isn’t ruled out that in the near term the beginning of upward wave 5 in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle should be expected. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

It isn’t ruled out that upward correction [4] in the form of a double zigzag is completing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

If the supposition is true the price decline in the form of a zigzag (wave [5]) is expected in the near term.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out the completion of the supposed wave 4 in the form of a double three with a horizontal triangle at the end.

Figure 8. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition is true the price decline in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5) is expected in the near term. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 6, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:43 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The price has marked the beginning of the movement against the US dollar. But at the moment it is impossible to say unambiguously whether this is the beginning of a new stage of the weakening of the dollar or a part of correction. We have to expect the confirmation of one of these variants.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The whole construction that has been forming since march can be easily presented in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8 of my book). At the same time it isn't ruled out that wave [xx] of 4 continues forming.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

The price rise in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle isn't ruled out (wave 5). We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of the supposition.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Perhaps the price won’t have enough strength to complete the second leg of the supposed zigzag 4 in the form of a full diagonal triangle (wave [c] of 4). In this case either a diagonal triangle with a truncated fifth (v) of [c] of 4 may form , or the variant with a horizontal triangle may be confirmed (refer to Figure 4, below).

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

In both cases the beginning of upward wave 5 in the form if an impulse or a diagonal triangle isn’t ruled out. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this suppositions.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The completion of upward correction [4] in the form of a double zigzag isn’t ruled out.

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

If the supposition is true the price decline in a zigzag mode is expected (wave [5]).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

A sequence of three intercrossing downward impulses has formed in the Swiss franc. It is quite natural to suppose the development of downward wedge of 5.

Figure 8. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition of wedge of 5 is true after correction [ii] of 5 one should expect considerable price decline in the form of an impulse. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 9, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:43 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Yesterday EUR/USD, GBP/USD and JPY/USD were forming the expected correction loosing their grounds and strengthening the US dollar. At the same time the pair USD/JPY formed an attack against the dollar having strengthened its positions. The mixed movement of the currency pairs under consideration may give more surprises.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The whole construction that has been forming since March can be easily presented in the form of a completed extended correction (refer to section 3.8 of my book). At the same time further forming of wave [xx] of 4 isn’t ruled out.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly corrective wave [ii], that may assume the shape of a zigzag is forming.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave of 5 is formed. Correction [ii] to a Fibonacci level will confirm this supposition.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3--dt.

Yesterday the price formed a shoot up thus having underlined that corrective wave [4] isn’t completed yet.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The wave structure of the supposed wave [v] of C also doesn’t rule out further upward movement of the price.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

A sequence of three intercrossing downward impulses has formed in the Swiss franc. It is quite natural to suppose the development of downward wedge of 5. If the supposition of wedge of 5 is true after correction [ii] of 5 one should expect considerable price decline in the form of an impulse.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

We have to wait for the completion of the corrective wave [ii], which may assume the shape of a zigzag.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 10, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:44 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Supposedly the local price movement in the favor of the dollar enters the closing stage.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The whole construction that has been forming since March can be easily presented in the form of a completed extended correction (refer to section 3.8 of my book). At the same time further forming of wave 4 isn’t ruled out.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly corrective wave [ii], which is assuming the shape of a narrow zigzag, is forming. The sensitivity of this scenario is in fact that this zigzag can easily transform in a downward impulse. In this case the current wave counting will have to be reconsidered.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly a deep correction [ii], which has already reached the limit 78% mark, is forming. If price crosses the critical level it will mean further forming of wave 4 (refer to Figure below).

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

This scenario has been considered earlier and it isn’t cancelled yet.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The price is forming a shoot up, continuing the development of wave C. A pair of the closing touches are needed for its completion (under condition an extension doesn’t form).

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the area of the 108 mark there is a strong resistance level, where it is natural to expect the terminus of wave C of (Y) of 4. The price has entered the territory of wave [1] of the supposed diagonal triangle which is an additional argument in the favor of this scenario.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition of wedge is true after correction [ii] of 5 we should expect a considerable price decline in the form of an impulse.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

We have to wait for the completion of corrective wave [ii], which is assuming the shape of a narrow zigzag.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 11, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:45 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The local corrective price movement in the favor of the US dollar may complete this week. If the supposition is true the next week may be rather profitable as we may expect a powerful price movement against the dollar .
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly downward corrective wave [ii] of 5 is completing. If the supposition is true the next week will afford ground for long positions.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly a deep correction [ii] of 5 is forming which has already reached the limit mark of 78%. If this is the case the next week will afford ground for long positions.
If the price crosses the critical level it will mean further forming of wave 4 (refer to Figure below).

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

This scenario has been considered earlier and isn’t cancelled yet.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

In the area of the 108 mark there is a strong resistance level where it is natural to expect the completion of wave C of (Y) of 4. If this is the case the next week will afford ground for short positions.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly upward corrective wave [ii] of 5 is completing. If this is the case the next week will afford ground for short positions.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 12, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:46 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In spite of the fact that today is Friday the 13-th no cataclysms are expected on the FX market. Supposedly the local corrective price movement in the favor of the US dollar is drawing to an end. If this is the case the next week may be rather profitable as a powerful price movement against the dollar may be expected.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly downward corrective wave [ii] of 5 is completing. But another somewhat different interpretation of this section of the chart is also possible (it is grey on the chart). If this is the case the next week will afford ground for long positions.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The price crossed the critical level for variant v.3, giving it no chances (refer to Daily-120608). But in the framework of scenario v.3-a diagonal triangle [c] of 4 is close to its completion possibly with a truncated fifth. If this is the case the next week will afford ground for long positions.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

In the area of the 108 mark there is a strong resistance level where it is natural to expect the completion of wave C of (Y) of 4. If this is the case the next week will afford ground for short positions.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly upward corrective wave [ii] of 5 is completing. If this is true the next week will afford ground for short positions.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 13, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:46 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Supposedly the local corrective price movement in the favor of the US dollar is drawing to an end. If this is the case this week may bring the beginning of a powerful price movement against the dollar and be rather profitable. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this supposition.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The whole construction that has been forming since March can be easily represented in the form of an extended horizontal correction 4 (refer to section 3.8 of my book). If the supposition is true several closing touches are needed for its completion and this week the beginning of the price rise is expected in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5). There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this supposition.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

The price may not have enough strength to complete the second leg of the supposed zigzag 4 in the form of a full diagonal triangle [c] of 4. In this case a diagonal triangle with a truncated fifth (v) of [c] of 4 may form. Thus this week it is natural to expect the beginning of upward wave 5 in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this supposition.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the area of the 108 mark there is a strong resistance level where the completion of wave C of (Y) of 4 can be expected. If this is the case several closing touches are needed for its completion and this week it is natural to expect the beginning of the price decline in the form of an impulse or diagonal triangle (wave [5]). There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this supposition.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The whole construction that has been forming since March can be easily represented in the form of a completing double three 4 (zigzag [w], zigzag [x], flat [y]). If this is the case several ending touches are needed for its completion and this week the beginning of the price decline in the form of an impulse or diagonal triangle is expected (wave 5). There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this supposition.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 16, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:47 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The price only swayed against the dollar so far. But the wave counting doesn’t rule out that the correction is completed and a new mid-term trend is starting. At the same time the confirmatory levels aren’t passed leaving an opportunity for further correction.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly wave 4 in the form of an extended horizontal correction is completed. But is is necessary to wait for the confirmation of this. If the supposition is true the price rise in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle is expected in the near term (wave 5).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

It is possible that the price hasn’t has enough strength to complete the second leg of the supposed zigzag 4 in the form of a full diagonal triangle [c] of 4 and it has formed a diagonal triangle with truncated fifth (v) of [c] of 4. If this is the case the price rise in the form of a large impulse or a diagonal triangle is expected in the near term (wave 5). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of this.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

It isn’t ruled out that a strong resistance level in the area of the 108 mark will become an insuperable barrier for wave C of (Y) of 4. If this is the case it is natural to expect forming of downward wave [5] in the form of a large zigzag (ordinary/double/triple). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of this.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly wave 4 in the form of a double three is completed. It is necessary to wait for the confirmation of this. If this is the case the price decline in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle is expected in the near term (wave 5).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 17, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:48 | 显示全部楼层
The beginnings of this informal holiday are found in 1988, when students and professors of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (San Francisco, USA) decided to celebrate March 14 (3.14 in American date format) as Pi Day (due to π being equal to roughly 3.14).
Robert Prechter (the president of Elliott Wave International) with his friends decided to follow this funny tradition and suggested to celebrate the holiday of wavers— Phi Day [ (pronounced «fie»)]. As Phi = ~ 0.618, it is celebrated on June 18 (6.18 in American date format). As it isn’t a secret that this very proportion and its derivatives lie at the root of the relationships of wave patterns.
On this day it would be good to remember a genius Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci , who gave strict mathematical appearance to the Golden ratio.
Let me wish you a Happy Phi Day, dear wavers!
Yours respectfully,
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 18, 2008
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Wave 4 in the form of an extended horizontal correction may be completed. But it is necessary to expect the confirmation of this. If this is the case the price rise in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle is expected in the near term (wave 5).

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

On the both charts a strong resistance level at 1.53 can be seen, which may become an insuperable barrier for the price.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

It is possible that the price hasn’t had enough strength to complete the second leg of the supposed zigzag 4 in the form of a full diagonal triangle [c] of 4 and it has formed a diagonal triangle with a truncated fifth (v) of [c] of 4. If this is the case the price rise in the form of a large impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5) is expected in the near term. There remains to expect the confirmation of this.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

On the both charts strong resistance levels can be seen at 1.94..93, that may become an insuperable barrier for the price.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Wave [4] may be completed. If the supposition is true it is natural to expect forming of a downward wave [5] in the form of a large zigzag (ordinary/double/triple) in the near term. There remains to expect the confirmation of this.

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

It isn’t ruled out that a strong resistance level at 108 will become an insuperable barrier for wave C of (Y) of 4.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Wave 4 in the form of a double three may be completed. It is necessary to expect the confirmation of this. If this is the case the price decline in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle is expected in the near term (wave 5).

Figure 8. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

On the both charts strong resistance levels at 1.06..05 can be seen, that may become an insuperable barrier for the price.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 18, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:49 | 显示全部楼层
The price so far has only swayed against the dollar. But the wave counting doesn’t rule out that the correction is completed and a new mid-term trend is starting. At the same time the confirmatory levels aren’t passed leaving an opportunity for continuation of the correction.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly wave 4 in the form of an extended correction is completed. But so far there is no confirmation of this. If the supposition is true further price rise in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle is expected in the near term (wave 5).

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

On the both charts we can see a strong resistance level at 1.53, wich may become an insuperable barrier for the price.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The price might have had not enough strength to complete the second leg of the supposed zigzag 4 in the form of a full diagonal triangle [c] of 4 and it has formed a diagonal triangle with a truncated fifth (v) of [c] of 4. If the supposition is true the price rise in the form of a large impulse or a diagonal triangle is expected in the near term (wave 5).
At the same time further development of downward wave (v) of [c] of 4 in the form of a zigzag structure for example a double zigzag isn’t ruled out so far.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

On the both charts we can see strong resistance levels at 1.94..93, which can become insuperable barrier for the price.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Almost horizontal price movement this week tips the balance in the favor of forming of a local correction. If this is the case the ending short shoot up of the price(wave (v) of [v] of C) is needed for the completion of wave C of (Y) of [4].

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

It isn’t ruled out that a strong resistance level at 108 will become an insuperable barrier for wave C of (Y) of 4.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Wave 4 in the form of a double three may be completed. It is necessary to expect the confirmation of this. If the supposition is true further price decline in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5) is expected in the near term.

Figure 8. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Strong resistance levels at 1.06..05, that may become an insuperable barrier for the price can be easily seen on the both charts.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 19, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:50 | 显示全部楼层
The beginning of a new trend against the dollar has been marked. But it can’t be considered irreversible as the confirmatory levels haven’t been passed yet and this leaves a possibility of further correction.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Wave 4 in the form of an extended horizontal correction might be completed but so far there is no confirmation of this. If the supposition is true the further price rise in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5) is expected in the near term.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

A strong resistance level at 1.53 can be easily seen on the both charts which may become an insuperable barrier for the price.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Possibly the price didn’t have enough strength to complete the second leg of the supposed zigzag 4 in the form of a full diagonal triangle [c] of 4 and it formed a diagonal triangle with a truncated fifth (v) of [c] of 4. If the supposition is true the price rise in the form of a large impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5) is expected in the near term.
At the same time further development of downward wave (v) of [c] of 4 in the form of a zigzag structure for example in the form of a double zigzag isn’t ruled out.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Strong resistance levels at 1.94..93, that may become an insuperable barrier for the price can be easily seen on the both charts.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Almost horizontal construction that has formed during the last week may appear to be a correction in the form of downward zigzag. In this case the uptrend will continue forming its ending waves (refer to Daily-190608).
But as long as the critical level at 108.40 isn’t broken this zigzag can be interpreted as a forming downward wedge .

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

If the supposition is true wave C of (Y) of [4] is completed and the continuation of the downtrend (wave 5) in the form of a zigzag construction is expected.

Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

It isn’t ruled out that a strong resistance level at 108 will become an insuperable barrier for wave C of (Y) of 4.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 8 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Wave 4 in the form of a double three may be completed but so far there is no confirmation of this. If the supposition is true further price decline in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5) is expected in the near term.

Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Strong resistance levels at 1.06..05, that may become an insuperable barrier for the price can be easily seen on the both charts.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 20, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:50 | 显示全部楼层
The dollar is reluctant to give its ground that requires considering possible alternative variants of the wave counting. As any other scenarios they remain only a supposition until they are confirmed.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The construction that has been forming since the beginning of June can be presented in the form of an incomplete upward zigzag the first leg of which has assumed the shape of a wedge (a). If the supposition is true it is natural to expect the price decline in the form of an impulse (or a diagonal triangle) in the near term.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets for the supposed zigzag [z] of 4 are seen in the area of 1.53 or lower.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The construction that has been forming since the first half of June can be presented in the form of an almost completed zigzag that can be a part of a larger correction (refer to the Figure below). If the supposition is true it is natural to expect the price decline in the form of a zigzag structure in the near term.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

The high of this zigzag can be the ending of wave (iv) of [c] of 4 of diagonal triangle [c] of 4. In this case the projected targets for this diagonal triangle are seen in the area of 1.93.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The construction that has been forming since the mid-June can’t be called unambiguous. If it isn’t added with another downward impulse it can be presented in the form of downward wedge (refer Daily-200608).
Otherwise it will easily transform into a corrective structure and in this case it is natural to expect the simultaneity of price movement with the alternative scenarios for the other currencies under consideration.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The construction that has been forming since the beginning of June can be presented in the form of an incomplete upward zigzag the first leg of which has assumed the shape of wedge (a). If this is the case it is natural to expect the price rise in the form of an impulse (or a diagonal triangle).

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets for the supposed zigzag [y] of 4 are seen in the area of 1.06 or higher.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 23, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:51 | 显示全部楼层
Supposedly the local strengthening of the dollar isn’t completed but it has entered the concluding stage.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets for the supposed zigzag [z] of 4 are seen in the area of 1.53 or lower.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The construction that has been forming since the beginning of June can pe presented as an incomplete downward zigzag the first leg of which has assumed the shape of wedge (a). If this is the case it is natural to expect the price decline in the form of an impulse (or a diagonal triangle) in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

As the supposed ending of wave (iv) of [c] of 4 has changed the value of the critical level for the diagonal triangle [c] of 4 — 1.9129 changes as well. The projected targets for this diagonal triangle are seen in the area of 1.93.
At the same time it isn’t ruled out that corrective wave (iv) may assume the shape of a triangle or some other extended horizontal correction.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The updated wave counting corresponds more exactly to the supposed strengthening of the dollar expected in the other currency pairs under consideration.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 180 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

It isn’t ruled out that wave C of (Y) of [4] is assuming the shape of an impulse with wave 1 in the form of a wedge. Please note that it is the fifth wave v of impulse (v) of that is truncated and not the fifth wave (v) of wedge .
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets for the supposed zigzag [y] of 4 are seen in the area of 1.06 or higher.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The construction that has been forming since the beginning of June can be presented in the form of an incomplete upward zigzag the first leg of which ahs assumed the shape of wedge (a). If this is the case it is natural to expect the further price rise on the form of an impulse (or a diagonal triangle) in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 24, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:52 | 显示全部楼层
Supposedly the local strengthening of the dollar isn’t completed but has entered the concluding stage.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets for the supposed zigzag [z] of 4 are seen in the area of 1.53 or lower.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition of a developing zigzag [z] is true it is natural to expect the further price decline in the form of an impulse in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets for the diagonal triangle are seen in the area of 1.93, if corrective wave (iv) doesn’t assume the shape of a triangle or some other extended horizontal correction.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

But taking into consideration the constancy with which the price has been stringing zigzag construction onto the virtual horizontal axis (1.96) since the end of 2007 it isn’t ruled out that a large horizontal triangle continues forming with its ending wave also in the form of a triangle.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The bastion 108 still holds the fort. But the wave counting doesn’t rule out its fall in the near term.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 180 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Supposedly wave C of (Y) of [4] is assuming the form of an impulse with the first wave in the form of a wedge while its fourth wave [iv] in the form of a double three is completed. If the supposition is true the breach of the 108.19 level may mean further forming of the ending upward impulse [v] of C. The projected targets of its terminus are seen in the area of 110.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets of the supposed zigzag [y] of 4 are seen in the area of 1.06 or higher.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition of a developing zigzag [y] is true it is natural to expect the further price rise in the form of an impulse in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 25, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:53 | 显示全部楼层
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday kept its key interest rates unchanged that weakened the US dollar’s attractiveness. On the charts the sentiment of the FX market participants appeared in the form of impetuous price movement against the US dollar for about 100 points.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets for the supposed zigzag [z] of 4 are seen in the area of 1.53 or lower.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

At the same time wave (b) of [z] continues its developing and is approaching the limit mark of 78%. Supposedly it is assuming the shape of a double zigzag.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets of the diagonal triangle are seen in the area of 1.93, if corrective wave (iv) doesn’t assume the shape of a triangle or some other extended horizontal correction.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

But taking into consideration the constancy with which the price has been stringing zigzag construction onto the virtual horizontal axis (1.96) since the end of 2007 it isn’t ruled out that a large horizontal triangle continues forming with its ending wave also in the form of a triangle.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The bastion 108 still holds the fort. But the wave counting doesn’t rule out its fall in the near term.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 180 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Wave C of (Y) of [4] is assuming the shape of an impulse with wave one in the form of a wedge while its wave four [iv] supposedly continues forming in the form of a triple three. The projected targets for this impulse are seen in the area of 110.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The projected targets for the supposed zigzag [y] of 4 are seen in the area of 1.06 or higher.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

At the same time wave (b) of [y] so far continues forming in the form of a double three and again it is approaching the 62% mark.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 26, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:54 | 显示全部楼层
The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday kept its key interest rates unchanged weakened the US dollar’s attractiveness for the participants of the FX market. This may become the key factor of the price movement in the coming weeks and again turn the balance in the favor of the main variant (refer to Daily-200608).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the main variant wave 4 in the form of an extended horizontal correction is completed (in this case in the form of a triple three). If this is the case further price rise in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5) is expected in the near term. But the confirmatory levels haven’t been passed yet and consequently the alternate scenarios aren’t cancelled.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

After yesterday’s shoot up of the price the whole upward construction that has been forming since the mid-June can be easily presented in the form of a developing wedge ?. If it doesn’t transform into a double zigzag (wave [d]?, marked with grey color), then we may suppose with certainty that a large horizontal triangle 4 is completed.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The bastion 108 has held the fort so far. It may mean the continuation of the new stage of the US dollar weakening in the framework of the main scenario. But the confirmatory levels haven’t been passed yet and consequently the alternate scenarios aren’t cancelled.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the main scenario wave 4 in the form of a double three is completed. If this is the case further price decline in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle (wave 5) is expected in the near term. But the confirmatory levels haven’t been passed and consequently the alternate scenarios aren’t cancelled.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 27, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:54 | 显示全部楼层
Possible movement scenarios of the currencies under consideration for July 2008 are given in Monthly-0708.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant wave 4 is developing in the form of an extended horizontal correction (in this case in the form of a triple three). If the supposition is true the price decline to 1.54 in a zigzag mode is expected in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart..

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The whole upward construction that has been forming since the mid-June can be easily presented in the form of a developing wedge ?. If it doesn’t transform into a double zigzag (wave [d]?, marked with grey color), it is possible to supposes with certainty that a large horizontal triangle 4 is completed.
If this supposition of the completion of triangle 4 is true the price decline to 1.96 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near-term.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

The bastion 108 has held the fort. But price failed to overcome even the lower border of the upward trend channel not to mention the confirmatory levels of the main variant. Consequently the alternate variant isn’t cancelled. Moreover RSI hints that a smart bounce up off the channel border should be expected at least.
If the supposition about developing of diagonal triangle C of (Y) of 4 is true the price rise to 110 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of alternate variant wave [x] of 4 is developing in the form of an almost horizontal correction (possibly in the form of a double three). If the supposition is true the price rise to 1.06 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 30, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:55 | 显示全部楼层
Possible scenarios of movement of the currencies under consideration for July 2008 are given in Monthly-0708.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario wave 4 is developing in the form of an extended horizontal correction (in this case in the form of a triple three). Supposedly its development has entered the ending stage.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Probable alternate.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the development of the ending wave [z] has already started. If this is the case the price decline to 1.54..1.53 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

If upward wedge doesn’t transform into a double zigzag (wave [d]?, marked with grey color), we may suppose with certainty that a large horizontal triangle 4 is completed.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that corrective wave [ii] has already started to form. If this is the case the price decline to 1.96 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

The price so far has failed to overcome the lower border of the trend channel not to mention the confirmatory levels of the main variant. Consequently the alternate variant isn’t cancelled. Moreover RSI hints that a smart bounce up off the channel border should be expected at least.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Probable alternate.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the ending wave [v] of C has already started to form. If this is the case the price rise to 108..110 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario wave [x] of 4 completed in the form of an almost horizontal correction (possibly in the form of a double three). Supposedly the development of wave 4 has entered the ending stage.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Probable alternate.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the ending wave [y] has already started to form. If this is the case the price rise to 1.05..1.06 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 1, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:56 | 显示全部楼层
The period of tedious waiting has come — where will the price pendulum swing, what scenario will it prefer? So far I prefer the alternate variants but the final choice will be made by the price.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Probable alternate.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the development of the ending wave [z] has already started. If this is the case the price decline to 1.54..1.53 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

If upward wedge doesn’t transform into a double zigzag (wave [d]?, marked with grey color), we may suppose with certainty that a large horizontal triangle 4 is completed.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that corrective wave [ii] has already started to form. If this is the case the price decline to 1.96 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

The price so far has failed to overcome the lower border of the trend channel not to mention the confirmatory levels of the main variant. Consequently the alternate variant isn’t cancelled. Moreover RSI hints that a smart bounce up off the channel border should be expected at least.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Probable alternate.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the ending wave [v] of C has already started to form. If this is the case the price rise to 108..110 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario wave [x] of 4 completed in the form of an almost horizontal correction (possibly in the form of a double three). Supposedly the development of wave 4 has entered the ending stage.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Probable alternate.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the ending wave [y] has already started to form. If this is the case the price rise to 1.05..1.06 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:57 | 显示全部楼层
Mid-term expectations haven’t changed — a reversal of the local trend in the favor of the dollar is quite possible. But forming of the reversal area may take several days.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario wave 4 is developing in the form of an extended horizontal correction (in this case in the form of a triple three).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Probable alternate.

The current wave counting doesn’t rule out that wave [xx] is completed. It is possible under condition that its ending wave [5] of c of (y) of [xx] doesn’t decide to form an extension (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) of [5].
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

If upward wedge doesn’t transform into a double zigzag (alternate wave [d], marked at the top of the Figure), we may suppose with certainty that a large horizontal triangle 4 is completed.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Somewhat extended wave (v) of and rather corrective than impulsive formation after it increase chances of the alternate scenario (plotted at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

The price so far has failed to overcome the lower border of the trend channel. Consequently the alternate scenario isn’t cancelled.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Probable alternate.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the ending wave [v] of C has already started forming. If this is the case the price rise to 108..110 in a zigzag mode should be expected in the near term.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0708. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario wave [x] of 4 completed in the form of an almost horizontal correction (perhaps in the form of a double three).

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Probable alternate.

The current wave counting doesn’t rule out that wave [x] is completed. It is possible under condition that its ending wave [5] of c of (y) of [x] doesn’t decide to form an extension (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) of [5].
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

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