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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:27 | 显示全部楼层
In mid August it was supposed that «depending on the scenario the price would choose the process of the trend reversal might take form 1 up to 10 days.» (refer to Daily-120808). At the moment the price has reached the border of the time zone for the current correction. If the trend reversal against the US dollar doesn’t occur this week a radical change of the scenarios of price movement of the currency pairs under consideration isn’t ruled out.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames(2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

The price decided to build the downward zigzag up to impulse [c] of 4, having added to it a pair pf lacking waves. In this case the whole correction 4 may be presented in the form of a possible flat [a]--[c]. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global uptrend.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 4 is completing.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The completeness of the downward impulse [c] with the main waves supposes its ending in the near future. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames(2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the development of a large zigzag 2,wave of 2 of which has assumed the shape of a truncated triangle is completing. After the completion of correction 2 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the uptrend.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the development of the ending wav (v) of impulse [c] of 2 is completing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

The completeness of downward impulse [c] with the main waves doesn’t rule out its ending in the near future. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames(2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Supposedly the development of upward triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z) of [2], the ending wave (Z) of [2] of which has assumed the shape of a zigzag, is completing. After the completion of correction [2] is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the downtrend.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The completeness of upward impulse C of (Z) with the main waves doesn’t rule out its ending in the near future. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames(2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of corrective wave 4 in the form of a double zigzag, the ending wave [y] of 4 has assumed the shape of a zigzag, is completing. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global downtrend.

Figure 10. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave v of the second leg (c) of zigzag [y] of 4 is completing.

Figure 11. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The completeness of upward impulse (c) of [y] with the main waves supposes its ending in the near future. There remains for us to expect the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 25, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:28 | 显示全部楼层
In mid August it was supposed that «depending on the scenario the price would choose the process of the trend reversal might take form 1 up to 10 days.» (refer to Daily-120808). At the moment the price has reached the border of the time zone for the current correction. If the trend reversal against the US dollar doesn’t occur this week a radical change of the scenarios of price movement of the currency pairs under consideration isn’t ruled out.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames(2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

The price decided to build the downward zigzag up to impulse [c] of 4, having added to it a pair pf lacking waves. In this case the whole correction 4 may be presented in the form of a possible flat [a]--[c]. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global uptrend.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 4 is completing.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The completeness of the downward impulse [c] with the main waves supposes its ending in the near future. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames(2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the development of a large zigzag 2,wave of 2 of which has assumed the shape of a truncated triangle is completing. After the completion of correction 2 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the uptrend.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the development of the ending wav (v) of impulse [c] of 2 is completing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

The completeness of downward impulse [c] with the main waves doesn’t rule out its ending in the near future. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames(2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Supposedly the development of upward triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z) of [2], the ending wave (Z) of [2] of which has assumed the shape of a zigzag, is completing. After the completion of correction [2] is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the downtrend.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The completeness of upward impulse C of (Z) with the main waves doesn’t rule out its ending in the near future. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
As the price hasn’t passed the confirmatory level of the main scenario yet we can’t rule out the alternate scenario with the further development of wave C of (Z) of 2.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames(2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of corrective wave 4 in the form of a double zigzag, the ending wave [y] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of a zigzag, is completing. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global downtrend..

Figure 10. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave v of the second leg (c) of zigzag [y] of 4 is completing.

Figure 11. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The completeness of upward impulse (c) of [y] with the main waves supposes its ending in the near future. There remains for us to expect the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:31 | 显示全部楼层
At the moment the price has only marked a possible trend reversal against the US dollar. If the expected reversal doesn’t occur this week a radical change of scenarios of price movement of the currency pairs under consideration isn’t ruled out.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

The whole correction 4 may be presented in the form of a possible flat [a]--[c]. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global uptrend.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 4 is completed, but so far there is no confirmation of this.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The completeness of downward impulse [c] with the main waves supposes its ending. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave 2 has assumed the shape of a large zigzag, wave of 2 of which is a truncated triangle. After the completion of correction 2 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the uptrend.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 2 is completed, but so far there is no confirmation of this.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

The completeness of downward impulse [c] with the main waves doesn’t rule out its ending. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The development of upward triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z) of [2], the ending wave (Z) of [2] of which has assumed the shape of a zigzag, might be completed. After the completion of correction [2] is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the downtrend.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The completeness of upward impulse C of (Z) with the main waves doesn’t rule out its ending. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly correction 4 has assumed the shape of a double zigzag the ending wave [y] of 4 of which is an ordinary zigzag. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global downtrend.

Figure 10. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave v of the second leg (c) of zigzag [y] of 4 is completed, but so far there is no confirmation of this.

Figure 11. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The completeness of upward impulse (c) of [y] with the main waves supposes its completion. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 27, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:32 | 显示全部楼层
At the moment the price has only marked a possible trend reversal against the US dollar. But price movement of the currencies under consideration is so far mixed. The confirmatory levels of the main variant haven’t been passed yet. There remains only to wait patiently which scenario the price will prefer.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

The whole correction 4 may be presented in the form of a possible flat [a]--[c]. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global uptrend.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 4 is completed, but so far there is no confirmation of this.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

it isn’t ruled out that the first waves of a new uptrend are developing. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Wave 2 may have assumed the shape of a large zigzag, wave of 2 of which is a truncated triangle. After the completion of correction 2 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the uptrend.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 2 is completed but so far there is no confirmation of this.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

As a local alternate we can consider a variant with the completion of impulse [c] with diagonal triangle v of (v) of [c].
At the same time it isn’t ruled out that the first waves of a new uptrend began to develop. There remains for us to wait for a confirmation of one of the variants.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The developing of upward triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z) of [2], the ending wave (Z) of [2] of which has assumed the shape of a zigzag, might be completed. After the completion of correction [2] is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the downtrend.
But almost horizontal price movement in August doesn’t rule out a possible ending price thrust upward.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The completeness of upward impulse C of (Z) with the main waves doesn’t rule out its ending. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
At the same time so far downward waves are rather a zigzag corrective structure giving rise to a great number of alternate scenarios.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Correction 4 might have assumed the shape of a double zigzag, the ending wave [y] of 4 of which is an ordinary zigzag. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global downtrend.

Figure 10. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The development of the ending wave v of the second leg (c) of zigzag [y] of 4 might be completed, but so far there is no confirmation of this.

Figure 11. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

It isn’t ruled out that the first waves of a new downtrend are developing. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:44 | 显示全部楼层
At the moment the price has only marked a possible trend reversal against the US dollar. But price movement of the currencies under consideration is so far mixed. The confirmatory levels of the main variant haven’t been passed yet. There remains only to wait patiently to see which scenario the price will prefer.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

The whole correction 4 may be presented in the form of a possible flat [a]--[c]. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global uptrend.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Supposedly the development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 4 is completed, but so far there is no confirmation of this.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

It isn’t ruled out that the first waves of a new uptrend are developing. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Wave 2 may have assumed the shape of a large zigzag, wave of 2 of which is a truncated triangle. After the completion of correction 2 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the uptrend.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 2 may be completing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Unlike other currencies under consideration the pound continues its falling in the form of a diagonal triangle.
If a set of waves of the supposes impulse [c] is determined correctly, after the completion of the diagonal triangle v of (v) of [c] one should expect considerable upward price movement.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The development of upward triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z) of [2], the ending wave (Z) of [2] of which has assumed the shape of a zigzag, might be completed. After the completion of correction [2] is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the downtrend.
But almost horizontal price movement in August doesn’t rule out a possible ending price thrust upward.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The completeness of upward impulse C of (Z) with the main waves doesn’t rule out its ending. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
At the same time so far downward waves represent rather a zigzag corrective structure giving rise to a great number of alternate scenarios. According to an alternate scenario this structure represents the first waves of the developing downward wedge а ?.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0808 and The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

Correction 4 might have assumed the shape of a double zigzag, the ending wave [y] of 4 of which is an ordinary zigzag. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global downtrend.

Figure 10. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The development of the ending wave v of the second leg (c) of zigzag [y] of 4 might be completed, but so far there is no confirmation of this.

Figure 11. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

It isn’t ruled out that the first waves of a new downtrend are developing. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 29, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:45 | 显示全部楼层
1) The survey wave counting of the main and alternate scenarios of the currencies under consideration are given in the monthly forecast for September (см. Monthly-0908).
2) At the moment the trend channel of the US dollar’s strengthening isn’t broken and the confirmatory levels of the main variant aren’t passed by the price. That’s why the chances of the alternate variant considered in Monthly-0908, remain high. In order not to read tea leaves it is better to wait patiently to see which scenario the price will prefer.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 4 may be completed, but so far there is no confirmation of this. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the global uptrend.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

It isn’t ruled out that the first waves of a new uptrend are developing. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The development of the ending wave (v) of impulse [c] of 2 may be completing. After the completion of correction 2 is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the uptrend.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

In contrast to the other currencies considered here the pound continued falling. If a set of waves of the supposed impulse [c] is defined correctly after the completion of wave (v) of [c] one should expect upward price movement.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The development of upward triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z) of [2], the ending wave (Z) of [2] of which has assumed the shape of a zigzag, is completed. After the completion of correction [2] is confirmed it is natural to expect the continuation of the downtrend.
But almost horizontal price movement during August doesn’t rule out further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/JPY) as a possible alternate considered in Monthly-0908.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

At the same time one of the variants of counting doesn’t rule out that the latter wave structure is a downward wedge ?.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The development of the ending wave v of the second leg (c) of zigzag [y] of 4 may be completed, but so far there is no confirmation of this. After the completion of correction 4 is confirmed 4 it is natural to expect the continuation of the global downtrend.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

It isn’t ruled out that the first waves of a new downtrend are developing. There remains for us to wait for the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 1, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:46 | 显示全部楼层
Today in the morning the price broke the critical level of the main variant in EUR/USD. In this situation the probability of further price movement according to the alternate scenarios considered in Monthly-0908 considerably increases.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

The price broke the critical level of the main variant thus having brought to the forefront the alternate scenario in the framework of which the development of impulse [c] of 4 continues.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

Wave (iv) of [c] may assume the shape of a flat or an extended horizontal correction.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart..

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

Continuous decline of the pound doesn’t suppose an immediate trend reversal. Probably the development of the supposes impulse [c] of 2 will continue according to the alternate scenario.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

The completeness of impulse (iii) of [c] with the internal waves supposes its completion in the near future and the beginning of the development of correction (iv) of [c].
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario the supposed wave [2] is assuming the shape of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y). At the moment wave link B of the ending zigzag (Y) of [2] may be developing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

According to a possible variant of counting wave-link B may develop in the form of a double or triple three.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

It isn’t ruled out that the development of zigzag [y] of 4 continues in the framework of the alternate scenario.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

Wave (b) of [y] may assumed the shape of a flat or an extended horizontal correction.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:47 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar’s strengthening continues. In this case the probability of further price movement according to the alternate variants considered in Monthly-0908 increases.
Mid-term expectations haven’t changed — at least a correction has come to a head. At the same time it should be noted that until there is a confirmation of the local trend reversal, the expected price movement given in the charts are of suppositional character.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario impulse [c] of 4 continues developing.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

Supposedly wave (iv) of [c] may assume the shape of a flat or an extended horizontal correction.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

Probably the supposed impulse [c] of 2 will continue developing according to the alternate scenario.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

The completeness of impulse (iii) of [c] with internal waves supposes its completion in the near future and the beginning of the development of correction (iv) of [c].
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario the supposed wave [2] is assuming the shape of double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y). Probably at the moment wave link B of the ending zigzag (Y) of [2] is developing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

One of the possible variants of counting of wave-link B supposes its development in the form of a double or triple three.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

It isn’t ruled out that zigzag [y] of 4 continues developing in the framework of the alternate scenario.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

Supposedly wave (b) of [y] may assume the shape of a flat or an extended horizontal correction.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:48 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar’s strengthening continues. In such a situation the probability of the further price movement according to the alternate scenario another varinat of which is considered in this article increases considerably.
Mid-term expectations haven’t changed – at least a correction has come to a head. At the same time it should be noted that until there is a confirmation of the local trend reversal, the expected price movement given in the charts are of suppositional character.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario the development of impulse [c] of 4 may completed in the near future.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

One of possible variants of counting doesn’t rule out the completion of correction 4 in the near future. But this supposition requires its confirmation.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of this alternate scenario the development of impulse [c] of 2 may complete in the near future. On the weekly chart it is seen that levels 1.75..73 represent a strong resistance level.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

According to a possible variant of counting correction 2 may complete in the near future. But this supposition requires its confirmation.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of this alternate scenario the supposed wave [2] is completed in the form of a triple zigzag. But this confirmation requires its confirmation.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart..

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of this alternate scenario the development of double zigzag [y] of 4 may complete in the near future.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

According to a possible variant of counting correction 4 may complete in the near future. But this supposition requires its confirmation.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 4, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:49 | 显示全部楼层
1) In connection with my 2-week vacation releases of the daily wave forecasts will be resumed from September 22, 2008.
2) Since the mid-August the price movement of the European currencies and the Japanese yen has been steadily mixed, that can be an indirect sign of the beginning the trend reversal. That’s why the mid-term expectations haven’t changed – at least a correction has come to a head (price movement against the US dollar). At the same time it should be noted that until there is a confirmation of the local trend reversal expectations are of the suppositional character.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of this alternate scenario the development of impulse [c] of 4 may complete in the near future.
A breach of the upper border of the downward trend channel by the price and then passing of the confirmatory levels may become the first confirmations of the beginning of the trend reversal against the US dollar.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of this alternate scenario the development of impulse [c] of 2 may complete in the near future. On the weekly chart it is seen that the 1.75..73 levels represent a strong resistance level.
A breach of the upper border of the downward trend channel by the price and then passing of the confirmatory levels may become the first confirmations of the beginning of the trend reversal against the US dollar.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of this alternate scenario the supposed wave [2] is completed in the form of a triple zigzag.
A breach of the confirmatory level by the price may be a weighty confirmation of the trend reversal against the US dollar.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 ,Monthly-0908 and in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-nd half of 2008). Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart..

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of this alternate scenario the development of double zigzag [y] of 4 may complete in the near future.
A breach of the lower border of the upward trend channel by the price and then passing of the confirmatory levels may become the first confirmations of the beginning of the trend reversal against the US dollar.
5. EUR/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on the daily EUR/JPY chart.

A forecast on the cross rate EUR/JPY, given in the article A Rare Form of Zigzag, so far comes true a hundred per-cent.
6. GBP/JPY

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily GBP/JPY chart.

A forecast on the cross rate GBP/JPY, given in the article Variety of variants for GBP/JPY , is fully confirmed.
7. USD/CAD

Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily USD/CAD chart. Possible alternate.

A supposition about possible price movement of the Canadian dollar given in the article Probable beginning of the Canadian dollar’s strengthening (USD/CAD), in general remains valid — probably, upward wave (2) of [C] of the global downward zigzag [A]-[B]-[C] is completing. After this zigzag the strengthening of the Canadian dollar may start (waves (3) and (5) of [C]).
But the price broke the critical level of the main variant and the ending point of this correction (2) may be somewhat different in the framework of the alternate scenario which requires its confirmation so far. A breach of the lower border of the upward trend channel by the price and then passing of the confirmatory levels may become the first confirmations of the beginning of the trend reversal against the US dollar.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 5, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:50 | 显示全部楼层
In the article released today The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) the most probable at the moment scenarios for the dollar currency pairs are considered.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X], which can assume the downward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

In the framework of scenario 1 the ending wave (E) of the global horizontal triangle [X], which can assume the shape of a downward double zigzag W-X-Y, continues developing.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that in the framework of scenario 3-dt correction [2] of a large diagonal triangle which can assume the shape of an ordinary zigzag, continues developing.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X], which can assumed the downward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 22, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:51 | 显示全部楼层
In the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) the most probable at the moment scenarios for the dollar currency pairs are considered.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X] of the global upward double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y], which can assume the downward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly corrective wave B of downward zigzag A-B-C of (A) is developing.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

It isn’t ruled out that wave B will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of B of (A).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.

In the framework of scenario 1 the ending wave (E) of the global horizontal triangle [X], which can assume the shape of downward double zigzag W-X-Y of [X] continues developing.

Figure 5. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly corrective wave of downward zigzag [a]--[c] of Y of (E) is developing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

It isn’t ruled out that wave will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dt correction [2] of a large diagonal triangle V, which can assume the shape of an ordinary zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [2] of V continues developing.

Figure 8. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dt.

Probably downward corrective wave (B) of upward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [2], which can assume the shape of a triple zigzag, is developing.

Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that wave (B) will assume the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B). But at the moment the supposed zigzag XX of (B) may be easily transformed into an upward wedge.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 10 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart..

Figure 10. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X] of the global downward double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y], which can assume upward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.

Figure 11. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly corrective wave of Y of (A) of upward double zigzag W-X-Y of (A) is developing.

Figure 12. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

It isn’t ruled out that wave of Y will assume the shape of downward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 23, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:53 | 显示全部楼层
In the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) the most probable at the moment scenarios for the dollar currency pairs are considered.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X] of the global upward double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y], which can assume a downward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly upward corrective wave B of (A) of downward zigzag A-B-C of (A) is developing.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

It isn’t ruled out that wave B of (A) will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of B of (A).

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

If the supposition of double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of B of (A) is true the beginning of its ending wave (c) of [y] of B should be expected in the near future.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.

In the framework of scenario 1 the ending wave (E) of [X] of the global horizontal triangle [X], which can assume the shape of downward double zigzag W-X-Y of (E) of [X], continues developing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly upward corrective wave of Y of (E) of downward zigzag [a]--[c] of Y of (E) is developing.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

It isn’t ruled out that wave of Y will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

If the supposition of double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y is true the beginning of its ending wave c of (y) of should be expected in the near term.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart..

Figure 9. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dt correction [2] of V of a large diagonal triangle V, which can assume the shape of ordinary zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [2] of V, continues developing.

Figure 10. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dt.

Probably, downward corrective wave (B) of [2] of upward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [2], which can assume the shape of a triple zigzag, is developing.

Figure 11. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that wave (B) will assume the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B). But at the moment the supposed zigzag XX of (B) may be easily transformed into an upward wedge.

Figure 12. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

If the supposition of triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B) is true the beginning of its ending wave [c] of Z of (B) should be expected in the near future.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 13 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 13. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X] of the global downward double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y], which can assume upward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.

Figure 14. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly downward corrective wave of Y of (A) of upward double zigzag W-X-Y of (A) is developing.

Figure 15. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

It isn’t ruled out that wave of Y will assume the shape of downward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.

Figure 16. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

If the supposition of double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y is true the beginning of its ending wave c of (y) of should be expected in the near future.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 24, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:54 | 显示全部楼层
Forecast for October 2008 will be released this weekend.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X] of the global upward double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y], which can assume downward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly upward corrective wave B of (A) of downward zigzag A-B-C of (A) is developing.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

It isn’t ruled out that wave B of (A) will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of B of (A).

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

If the supposition of double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of B of (A) is true the beginning of its ending wave (c) of [y] of B should be expected in the near future.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.

In the framework of scenario 1 the ending wave (E) of [X] of the global horizontal triangle [X], which can assume the shape of downward double zigzag W-X-Y of (E) of [X], continues developing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly upward corrective wave of Y of (E) of downward zigzag [a]--[c] of Y of (E) is developing.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

It isn’t ruled out that wave of Y will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

If the supposition of double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y is true the beginning of its ending wave c of (y) of should be expected in the near future.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 9. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dt correction [2] of V of a large diagonal triangle V, which can assume the shape of ordinary zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [2] of V, continues developing.

Figure 10. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dt.

Probably downward corrective wave (B) of [2] of upward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [2], which can assume the shape of triple zigzag, is developing.

Figure 11. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that wave (B) will assume the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B). But at the moment the supposed zigzag XX of (B) can be easily transformed into an upward wedge.

Figure 12. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

If the supposition of triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B) is true the beginning of its ending wave [c] of Z of (B) should be expected in the near future.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 13 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 13. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X] of global downward double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y], which can assume upward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.

Figure 14. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly downward corrective wave of Y of (A) of upward double zigzag W-X-Y of (A) is developing.

Figure 15. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

It isn’t ruled out that wave of Y will assume the shape of downward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.

Figure 16. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

If the supposition of double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y is true the beginning of its ending wave c of (y) of should be expected in the near future.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 25, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:55 | 显示全部楼层
Forecast for October 2008 will be released this weekend.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X] of the global upward double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y], which can assume downward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly upward corrective wave B of (A) of downward zigzag A-B-C of (A) is developing.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

It isn’t ruled out that wave B of (A) will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of B of (A).

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

If the supposition of double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of B of (A) is true its ending wave (c) of [y] of B may have started already. But this requires confirmation.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.

In the framework of scenario 1 the ending wave (E) of [X] of the global horizontal triangle [X], which can assume the shape of downward double zigzag W-X-Y of (E) of [X], continues developing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly upward corrective wave of Y of (E) of downward zigzag [a]--[c] of Y of (E) is developing.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

It isn’t ruled out that wave of Y will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

If the supposition of double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y is true its ending wave c of (y) of may have started already. But this requires its confirmation.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 9. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dt correction [2] of V of a large diagonal triangle V, which can assume the shape of ordinary zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [2] of V, continues developing.

Figure 10. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dt.

Probably downward corrective wave (B) of [2] of upward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [2], which can assume the shape of a triple zigzag, is developing

Figure 11. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that wave (B) will assume the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B). But at the moment the supposed zigzag XX of (B) can be easily transformed into an upward wedge.

Figure 12. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

If the supposition of triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B) is true its ending wave [c] of Z of (B) may have started already. But this requires its confirmation.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008). Refer to Figure 13 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the weekly chart.

Figure 13. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3dz.

In the framework of scenario 3dz the supposed wave-link [X] of global downward double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y], which can assume upward zigzag shape or the shape of a horizontal correction, continues developing.

Figure 14. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly downward corrective wave of Y of (A) of upward double zigzag W-X-Y of (A) is developing.

Figure 15. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

It isn’t ruled out that wave of Y will assume the shape of downward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.

Figure 16. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

If the supposition of double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y is true its ending wave c of (y) of may have started already. But this requires its confirmation.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:56 | 显示全部楼层
Forecast for October 2008 was released last weekend (refer to Monthly-1008).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3dz upward corrective wave B of (A) of downward zigzag A-B-C of (A) is developing. It isn’t ruled out that wave B of (A) will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of B of (A).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

If the supposition of double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of B of (A) is true the beginning of its ending wave (c) of [y] of B is possible in the near future.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 1 upward corrective wave of Y of downward zigzag [a]--[c] of Y is developing. It isn’t ruled out that wave of Y will assume the shape of upward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

If the supposition of double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y is true the beginning of its ending wave c of (y) of is possible in the near future.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dt downward corrective wave (B) of [2] of upward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [2], that can assume the shape of triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B), is developing.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

If the supposition of triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B) is true the beginning of its ending wave Z of (B) is possible in the near future.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3dz downward corrective wave of Y of upward zigzag [a]--[c] of Y is developing. It isn’t ruled out that wave of Y will assume the shape of downward double (or triple) zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

If the supposition of double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of of Y is true the beginning of its ending wave c of (y) of is possible in the near future.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 29, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:57 | 显示全部楼层
The price of the European currencies broke the trend channel in which it had moved for the last three weeks, thus having increased the chances of the alternate scenarios considered in Monthly-1008.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The breach of the lower border of the trend channel may mean the development of the ending downward wave C of (A) or the continuation of correction B of (A) in the form of some horizontal structure.
Further decline of the price after a small correction will be the confirmation of this scenario.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time further decline of the US dollar (the rise of EUR/USD) in the form of a double zigzag is also possible so far.
The beginning of uptrend in the near future will be the confirmation of this scenario.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The breach of the lower border of the trend channel may mean the development of the ending downward wave [c] of Y or the continuation of correction of Y in the form of some horizontal structure.
Further decline of the price after a small correction will be the confirmation of this scenario.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time further decline of the US dollar (the rise of GBP/USD) in the form of a double zigzag is also possible so far.
The beginning of uptrend in the near future will be the confirmation of this scenario.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Corrective wave (B) of [2] is almost fully completed with waves and taking into consideration the approximate equality of the main acting waves, it may be considered completed.
The immediate beginning of the price rise after the final completion of the ending wave [c] of Z of (B) of [2] will be the confirmation of this scenario.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time further decline of the US dollar (the decline of USD/JPY) in the form of an extended impulse [c] of Z of (B) of [2].
The continuation of the downtrend after a small correction will be the confirmation of this scenario.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The breach of the higher border of the trend channel may mean the development of the ending upward wave [c] of Y or the continuation of correction of Y in the form of a horizontal structure.
Further price rise in the near future will be the confirmation of this scenario.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time further decline of the US dollar (the decline of USD/CHF) in the form of a double zigzag is also possible so far.
The continuation of the downtrend in the near future will be the confirmation of this scenario.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:58 | 显示全部楼层
The local strengthening of the US dollar in the framework of alternate scenarios considered in Monthly-1008 continues.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

At the moment it isn’t clear which scenario the price will choose. Possibly it will prefer a progressive decline — the development of wave C of (A). In this case the price may cross the mark of 127% of the length of wave B of (A).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

But the price may also prefer developing of wave B in the form of a horizontal structure. In this case an upward reversal of the price may occur not later than at the mark of 127% of the length of wave [a] or [w] of B.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

At the moment it isn’t clear which of the variants the price will choose. It may prefer a progressive decline — the development of wave [c] of Y. In this case the price may cross the mark of 127% of the length of wave of Y.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

But the price may also prefer developing of wave in the form of a horizontal structure. In this case an upward reversal of the price may occur not later than at the mark of 127% of the length of wave (a) or (w) of .
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Corrective wave (B) of [2] in the form of a triple zigzag is almost fully completed with waves and taking into consideration the approximate equality of the main acting waves may be considered completed. At the same time the price movement according to the alternate scenario (it is plotted in the chart with grey color) isn’t ruled out.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt..

In both cases the nearest expected price movement is upward after the completion of a small correction.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

At the moment it isn’t clear yet which of the variants the price will choose. It may prefer a progressive rise – the development of wave [c] of Y. In this case the price may cross the mark of 127% of the length of wave of Y.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

But it may also prefer developing of wave in the form of a horizontal structure. In this case the downward price reversal may occur not later than the mark of 127% of the length of wave (a) or (w) of .
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 1, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 15:59 | 显示全部楼层
The local strengthening of the US dollar in the framework of alternate scenarios considered in Monthly-1008 continues.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

At the moment it isn’t clear yet which of the variants the price will choose. It may prefer a progressive decline — the development of wave C of (A). In this case to complete impulse C of (A) (or of C of (A)) the price has to build up a pair of waves — [iv] and [v] of C of (A).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time the price may prefer developing of wave B in the form of a horizontal construction. In this case upward price reversal may occur in the near future.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

At the moment it isn’t clear which of the variants the price will choose. It may prefer a progressive decline – the development of wave [c] of Y. In this case to complete impulse [c] of Y (or (i) of [c] of Y) the price has to build up a pair of waves — iv and v of (v) of [c] of Y.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time the price may prefer developing of wave in the form of a horizontal construction. In this case upward price reversal may occur in the near future.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Corrective wave (B) of [2] in the form of a triple zigzag is fully completed with waves and taking into consideration the approximate equality of the main acting waves may be considered completed. At the same time price movement according to the alternate scenario (it is plotted on the chart with grey color) isn’t ruled out yet.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

In case the price chooses the alternate scenario downward movement may start in the near future.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

At the moment it isn’t clear yet which of the variants the price will choose. It may prefer a progressive rise— the development of wave [c] of Y. In this case to complete impulse [c] of Y (or (i) of [c] of Y) the price has to build up a pair of waves — (iv) и (v) of [c] of Y.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time the price may prefer developing of wave in the form of a horizontal construction. In this case downward price reversal may occur in the near future.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 16:00 | 显示全部楼层
The local strengthening of the US dollar in the framework of alternate scenarios considered in Monthly-1008 continues.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

At the moment it isn’t clear yet which of the variants the price will choose. It may prefer a progressive decline – the development of wave C of (A). In this case to complete impulse C of (A) (or of C of (A)) the price has to build up a pair of waves — [iv] and [v] of C of (A).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time the price may prefer developing of wave B in the form of a horizontal construction. In this case upward price reversal may occur after the completion of wave or [x].
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

At the moment it isn’t clear which of the variant the price will choose. It may prefer a progressive decline — the development of wave [c] of Y. In this case to complete impulse [c] of Y (or (i) of [c] of Y) the price has to build up a pair of waves — iv and v of (v) of [c] of Y.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time the price may prefer developing of wave in the form of a horizontal construction. In this case upward price reversal may occur after the completion of wave (b) or (x).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Corrective wave (B) of [2] in the form of a triple zigzag is fully completed with waves and taking into consideration the approximate equality of the main acting waves it may be considered completed. At the same time price movement according to the alternate scenario (it is plotted in the chart with the grey color) isn’t ruled out.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

In case the price chooses the alternate scenario its downward movement may continue.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008) and Monthly-1008. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

At the moment it isn’t clear which of the variants the price will choose. It may prefer a progressive rise — the development of wave [c] of Y. In this case to complete impulse [c] of Y (or (i) of [c] of Y) the price has to build up a pair of waves — (iv) and (v) of [c] of Y.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time the price may prefer developing of wave in the form of a horizontal construction. In this case downward price reversal may occur after the completion of wave (b) or (x).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Probable Beginning of the Canadian Dollar’s Strengthening (USD/CAD)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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