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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 10:28 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
As it was mentioned in the May forecast : «…the confirmation of the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new stage of the wakening of the US dollar are the expected events in May 2008» (refer to Monthly-0508). At the moment there is no confirmation of the completion of the correction. Supposedly the price is writing up its ending waves.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly a double three that can be the entirely wave (iv) of [v] or its part is completing.
Local price decline since the second half of April can be interpreted as a simple zigzag y of (iv) with approximately equal legs. In this case guideline of alternation for zigzags is demonstrably shown (refer to page 140 of my book). We only have to wait for the confirmation of its completion.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Let me quote my forecast for May (refer to Monthly-0508):
«Unfortunately so far there is no confirmation of the completion of this triangle. Consequently the price may continue further development of its ending structure and may rewrite the endings of waves [c], [d] and [e] of 4.»
My fears are confirmed — at the moment the price is rewriting the ending of the wave [c] of the triangle. But no matter which form the supposed triangle will assume after the confirmation of the completion of its wave [c] the dominant price movement will be upward.
Note. Ttruncated triangle — is a form of a horizontal triangle with three and not five main waves or with disproportionately small ending main waves [D] and [E]. We may meet this term in the works by R. Prechter. A famous analyst J.Murphy also wrote about three-wave triangles in the framework of EWA.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The double zigzag 4 of (3) may be completed. But so far there is no confirmation of this and the ending of wave 4 can be rewritten.
The local price rise since mid-April can be interpreted as a simple zigzag with approximately equal legs. In this case guideline of alternation for zigzags is demonstrably shown (refer to page 140 of my book). We only have to wait for the confirmation of its completion.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the zigzag (iv) of [v] is completing.
The ending wave [5] of the expanding diagonal triangle c of (iv) can be interpreted as a simple zigzag with approximately equal legs. In this case guideline of alternation for zigzags is demonstrably shown (refer to page 140 of my book). We only have to wait for the confirmation of its completion.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 9, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 10:28 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
As it was mentioned in the May forecast : «…the confirmation of the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new stage of the wakening of the US dollar are the expected events in May 2008» (refer to Monthly-0508). A new stage of the dollar’s weakening may have started already but so far the completion of the correction isn’t confirmed.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Local price decline since the second half of April can be interpreted as a simple zigzag with approximately equal legs. In this case guideline of alternation for zigzags is demonstrably shown (refer to page 140 of my book).
Supposedly the double three w-x-y of (iv) that can be the entirely wave (iv) of [v] or its part is completed. We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the first waves of the uptrend are forming.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart.

At the moment the price is rewriting the ending of the wave [c] of the triangle. But no matter which form the supposed triangle will assume after the confirmation of the completion of its wave [c] of 4 the dominant price movement will be upward.
Note. Ttruncated triangle — is a form of a horizontal triangle with three and not five main waves or with disproportionately small ending main waves [D] and [E]. We may meet this term in the works by R. Prechter. A famous analyst J.Murphy also wrote about three-wave triangles in the framework of EWA.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly the wave [c] of 4 has assumed the shape of double zigzag. If this is the case only several ending touches are needed for its completion.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The local price rise since mid-April can be interpreted as a simple zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of [y] of 4 with approximately equal legs. In this case guideline of alternation for zigzags is demonstrably shown (refer to page 140 of my book).
The double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of 4 of (3), that can be the entire wave 4 of (3) may be completed. But the price may continue the upward movement and this construction will be easily transformed into a triple zigzag (refer to variant v.3-dt in Monthly-0508). We have to wait for the confirmation of the completion of wave 4.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the first waves of the downtrend are forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The ending wave [5] of the expanding triangle c of (iv) can be interpreted as a simple zigzag with approximately equal legs. In this case guideline of alternation for zigzags is demonstrably shown (refer to page 140 of my book).
Supposedly zigzag a-b-c of (iv) of [v] is completed. We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out that the first waves of the downtrend are forming.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 12, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
As it was mentioned in the May forecast : «…the confirmation of the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new stage of the wakening of the US dollar are the expected events in May 2008» (refer to Monthly-0508). A new stage of the dollar’s weakening may have started already but so far the completion of the correction isn’t confirmed. Moreover one should be vigilant as alternate scenarios gain weight.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Local price decline since the second half of April can be interpreted as a simple zigzag with approximately equal legs. In this case guideline of alternation for zigzags is demonstrably shown (refer to page 140 of my book).
Supposedly the double three w-x-y of (iv) that can be the entire wave (iv) of [v] or its part is completed. We only have to wait for the confirmation of its completion.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

At the same time the wave counting doesn’t rule out further forming of the diagonal triangle [c] of y of (iv). RSI has reached its resistance line which is an additional argument in the favor of the alternate variant (refer to section 4.6 of my book).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Wave [c] of 4 may have assumed the shape of a double zigzag.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

The wave counting allows supposing that zigzag a-b-c of (y) of [c] is completed. But so far there is no confirmation of this and the alternate scenario at the bottom of the chart isn’t ruled out.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The local price rise since mid-April can be interpreted as a simple zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of [y] of 4 with approximately equal legs. In this case guideline of alternation for zigzags is demonstrably shown (refer to page 140 of my book).
The double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of 4 of (3), that can be the entire wave 4 of (3) may be completed.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

But the price may continue the upward movement and this construction will be easily transformed into a triple zigzag (refer to variant v.3-dt in Monthly-0508). RSI has reached its resistance line which is an additional argument in the favor of the alternate scenario (refer to section 4.6 of my book).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The ending wave [5] of the expanding triangle c of (iv) can be interpreted as a simple zigzag with approximately equal legs. In this case guideline of alternation for zigzags is demonstrably shown (refer to page 140 of my book).
Supposedly zigzag a-b-c of (iv) of [v] is completed. We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

At the same time the wave counting doesn’t rule out further forming of zigzag a-b-c of (iv). RSI has reached its resistance line which is an additional argument in the favor of the alternate scenario (refer to section 4.6 of my book).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 13, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 10:38 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
As it was mentioned in the May forecast : «…the confirmation of the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new stage of the wakening of the US dollar are the expected events in May 2008» (refer to Monthly-0508). A new stage of the dollar’s weakening may have started already but so far the completion of the correction isn’t confirmed.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the double three w-x-y of (iv) that can be the entire wave (iv) of [v] or its part is completed. We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave ii of (v) is assuming the shape of an expanded (or running) wave flat. If this is the case after its completion good perspectives for opening long positions will appear.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly wave [c] of 4 has assumed the shape of a double zigzag.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly zigzag a-b-c of (y) of [c] is completing. If this is the case after its completion good perspective for opening long position will appear.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of 4 of (3) that can be the entire wave 4 of (3) is completed.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave [ii] of 5 is assuming the shape of a zigzag. If this is the case after its completion good perspectives for opening short positions will appear.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly zigzag a-b-c of (iv) of [v] that can be the entire wave (iv) of [v] or its part is completed. We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave ii of (v) is assuming the shape of a zigzag. If this is the case after its completion good perspectives for opening good positions will appear.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 14, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
As it was mentioned in the May forecast: «…the confirmation of the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new stage of the wakening of the US dollar are the expected events in May 2008» (refer to Monthly-0508). A new stage of the dollar’s weakening may have started already but so far the completion of the correction isn’t confirmed.
As the price has approached the critical levels the alternate scenarios considered in Daily-130508 have to be kept handy.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the double three w-x-y of (iv) that can be the entire wave (iv) of [v] or its part is completed. We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave ii of (v) has assumed the shape of a running wave flat and at the moment wave iii of (v) is forming.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly wave [c] of 4 has assumed the shape of a double zigzag.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly zigzag a-b-c of (y) of [c] is completed and at the moment wave (a) of [d] is developing.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y] of 4 of (3) that can be the entire wave 4 of (3) целиком is completed. We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave [ii] of 5 has assumed the shape of a zigzag and at the moment wave [iii] of 5 is forming.
As the price has approached the critical level the alternate scenario considered in Daily-130508 have to be kept handy.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly zigzag a-b-c of (iv) of [v] that can be the entire wave (iv) of [v] or its part is completed. We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave ii of (v) has assumed the shape of a zigzag and at the moment wave iii of (v) is forming.
As the price has approached the critical level the alternate scenario considered in Daily-130508 should be kept handy.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 15, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 10:49 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The price so far doesn’t confirm the expected new stage of the dollar’s decline. Instead of this it treads water, turning the possible impulse structure of the last days into a hopeless correction thus increasing chances of the alternate scenarios considered in Daily-130508.
Moreover the probable synchronism of the projected price movements in the framework of the alternate scenarios and the similar expected movement in the pair USD/CAD insistently make me bring these scenarios to the forefront.
If this is the case the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the following week..
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

It isn’t ruled out that the supposed double three w-x-y of (iv) isn’t completed yet and until the end of the following week the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected (the decline of EUR/USD). 2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart, the alternate scenario.

It isn’t ruled out that the supposed double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of [c] of 4 isn’t completed yet anduntil the end of the following week the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected (the decline of GBP/USD).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

It isn’t ruled out that the triple zigzag (W)-(Y)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z) of [4] is forming and until the end of the following week the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected (the rise of USD/JPY).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

It isn’t ruled out that the supposed zigzag a-b-c of (iv) isn’t completed yet and until the end of the following week the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected (the rise of USD/CHF).
5. USD/CADAt the end of April it was supposed that a new stage of the strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar had started in March (refer to the article One of the possible scenarios for USD/CAD).

Figure 5. Wave counting on 360 min chart.

In spite of some clumsiness of the ending wave [v] of 1 it isn’t ruled out that the initial diagonal triangle 1 (wedge) is completing.
In order that the supposed wedge 1 correspond to the rules of EWA its wave [v] of 1 mustn’t break the critical level at 0.9955. Otherwise the stockade of waves that has been forming since the end of March 2008 may be interpreted as the wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 of decreasing wave degrees (refer to the alternate counting at the bottom of the chart).
If the price breaks the upper critical level at 1.0324 further forming of the corrective wave (2) should be expected.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 16, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 10:50 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
So far the price is treading water turning the wave structure of the last days into a correction this increasing the chances of the alternate scenarios considered in Daily-130508.
Moreover the probable synchronism of the projected price movements in the framework of the alternate scenarios and similar expected movement in the pair USD/CAD insistently make me bring these scenarios to the forefront.
If this is the case the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week .
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

It isn’t ruled out that the supposed double three w-x-y of (iv) isn’t completed yet and the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the decline of EUR/USD) . 2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart, the alternate variant .

It isn’t ruled out that the supposed double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of [c] of 4 isn’t completed and the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the decline GBP/USD) .
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

The triple zigzag (W)-(Y)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z) of [4] may be forming and the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the rise of USD/JPY) .
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

It isn’t ruled out that the supposed zigzag a-b-c of (iv) isn’t completed and the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the rise of USD/CHF) .
5. USD/CADAt the end of April it was supposed that a new stage of strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar had started in March (refer to the article One of the possible scenarios for USD/CAD).

Figure 5. Wave counting on 180 min chart.

A wish to find the optimal counting of the construction that has been developing since the beginning of April has led to the variant given in the Figure.
The fourth wave of the supposed wedge can be easily presented in the form of a double three the intermediate waves of which are expanded flats ([A]-[B]-[C] of b of (x) of [iv] and a-b-c of (x) of [iv]). The complexity of this knot confirms indirectly that this is the fourth wave.
Besides the depth of the corrective waves [ii] and [iv] corresponds to guidelines for wedges (refer to page 186 of my book), which is an additional argument in the favor of my variant.
In this case the ending wave [v] of wedge 1 turns to be a diagonal triangle — a most singular phenomenon! Let me quote remarks from pages 186-187 of my book:
«Remark. Theoretically the fifth wave of the edge may be a diagonal triangle, but I haven’t come across such a case on the Forex market. Moreover some foreign authors deny such a possibility though without cause.»
If the supposition is confirmed this case will take its place in the bank of rare patterns.
As the third wave (iii) of [v] turned to be shorter that the first wave (i) of [v], the critical level for the diagonal triangle [v] of 1 is 0.9929 mark.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 360 min chart.

If the supposition about forming a downward wedge (or the wave sequence 1-2, 1-2) is true the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the rise of USD/CAD) .
If the price breaks the upper critical level at 1.0324 forming of the corrective wave (2) should be expected.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 19, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 10:51 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Supposedly the local strengthening of the US dollar has started thus increasing the chances of the alternate scenarios. Probable synchronism of the projected price movements in the framework of the alternate scenarios and similar expected movement in the pair USD/CAD insistently make me bring these scenarios to the forefront.

1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

Supposedly the double three w-x-y of (iv) is completing while wave y of (iv) is assuming the shape of a double zigzag. In this case the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the decline of EUR/USD).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart, the alternate variant.

Supposedly the double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) of [c] of 4 is completing. In this case the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the decline of GBP/USD).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

Supposedly the triple zigzag (W)-(Y)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z) of [4] is forming and the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the rise of USD/JPY).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3, alternate.

Supposedly zigzag a-b-c of (iv) is completing. In this case the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the rise of USD/CHF).
5. USD/CADAt the end of April it was supposed that a new stage of strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar had started in March (refer to the article One of the possible scenarios for USD/CAD).

Figure 5. Wave counting on 180 min chart.

Yestrerday’s price decline below 0.9929 makes me modify the counting of the ending diagonal triangle [v], leaving the core of the general wave counting intact..
Taking into consideration the fact that the third wave of the wedge [iii] of 1 is shorter than its first wave of 1, and the third wave of the diagonal triangle (iii) of [v] is shorter than its first wave (i) of [v], the critical levels for these patterns were determined. They coincided in a remarkable manner and the critical level 0.9889 is the last defense line for this scenario. Besides if the wedge pattern is confirmed it will be a unique wedge with the ending wave in the form of a diagonal triangle (refer to Remark at page 186 of my book).
At the moment the price has approached closely the critical level but the fact that the price touched the lower forming line of the wedge 1 gives good chances that the price will bounce up in the nearest term. If the supposition about forming of a downward wedge (or the wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 in case of a deep break of 0.9889 level) is true, the local strengthening of the US dollar is expected until the end of the week (the rise of USD/CAD).
If the price breaks the upper critical level at 1.0324, further forming of the corrective wave (2) should be expected.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 20, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:04 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Yesterday the price almost built up an impulse directed against the US dollar (refer to 120 min charts below). This impulse changes radically the wave counting for all the currency pairs under consideration— now sections of the charts for the last two weeks can be presented not in the form of a correction but in the form of an impulse structure for example in the form of the wave sequence 1-2, 1-2.
If the supposition is true (and it as always requires its confirmation), the expected synchronism of the currencies in the local strengthening of the US dollar remains but this price movement will be of a corrective mode. Moreover after the supposed short-term correction we may expect the most profitable mid-term price movement against the US dollar known among wave analysts as «the third in the third».
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

One of the variants of counting of a perspective picture of the arising upward price movement which requires its confirmation.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

If the supposition is confirmed the price rise may be rather impressive.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of the variants of counting of a perspective picture of the arising upward price movement which requires its confirmation.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

If the supposition is confirmed the price rise may be rather impressive.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

One of the variants of counting of a perspective picture of the arising downward price movement which requires its confirmation.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

If the supposition is confirmed the price decline may be rather impressive.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

One of the variants of counting of a perspective picture of the arising downward price movement which requires its confirmation.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

If the supposition is confirmed the price decline may be rather impressive.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 21, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:07 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
1) Another phase of the weakening of the US dollar is gaining momentum.
2) By the weekend I’m going to finish an article about JPY cross pairs (EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY). The wave analysis and forecast were implemented using methods of mathematical modeling and somewhat unusual result requires additional checking.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the upward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming. If this is the case the foundation of rather powerful price movement is laid.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave [1] of iii of (v) has assumed the shape of a wedge with an extension in the fifth wave (5) of [1] of iii. This fact confirms indirectly expectations of a powerful price rise. On of the possible variants of counting of this section of the chart doesn’t rule out the nearest beginning of correction [2] of iii.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly the upward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming. If this is the case the foundation of rather powerful price movement is laid.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

On of the possible variants of counting of this section of the chart doesn’t rule out the nearest beginning of correction [2] of iii.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the downward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming. If this is the case the foundation of rather powerful price movement is laid.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

On of the possible variants of counting of this section of the chart doesn’t rule out the nearest beginning of correction (ii) of [iii].
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the downward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming. If this is the case the foundation of rather powerful price movement is laid.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave [1] of iii of (v) has assumed the shape of a wedge with an extension in the fifth wave (5) of [1] of iii. This fact confirms indirectly expectations of a powerful price decline. One of the possible variants of counting of this section of the chart doesn’t rule out the nearest beginning of correction [2] of iii.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 22, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:10 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
1) Another phase of the weakening of the US dollar is gaining momentum.
2) By the weekend I’m going to finish an article about JPY cross pairs (EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY). The wave analysis and forecast were implemented using methods of mathematical modeling and somewhat unusual result requires additional checking.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the upward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming. If this is the case the foundation of a rather powerful price movement is laid.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave [1] of iii of (v) has assumed the shape of a wedge with an extension in the fifth wave (5) of [1] of iii. This fact confirms indirectly expectations of a powerful price rise. On of the possible variants of counting of this section of the chart doesn’t rule out the nearest beginning of correction [2] of iii.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly the upward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming. If this is the case the foundation of a rather powerful price movement is laid.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

On of the possible variants of counting of this section of the chart doesn’t rule out the nearest beginning of correction [2] of iii.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the downward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming. If this is the case the foundation of a rather powerful price movement is laid.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

On of the possible variants of counting of this section of the chart doesn’t rule out the nearest beginning of correction (ii) of [iii].
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly the downward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming. If this is the case the foundation of a rather powerful price movement is laid.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly wave [1] of iii of (v) has assumed the shape of a wedge with an extension in the fifth wave (5) of [1] of iii. This fact confirms indirectly expectations of a powerful price decline. One of the possible variants of counting of this section of the chart doesn’t rule out the nearest beginning of correction [2] of iii.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 23, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:13 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
1) Another phase of the weakening of the US dollar is gaining momentum. But as the U.S. and UK financial markets are closed Monday for public holidays trading on the Forex market is expected to be quite.
2) I divided the article about EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY into two parts because of its large volume:
Horizontal triangle — is it a reversal or continuation pattern? (EUR/JPY) и
Variety of variants for GBP/JPY .
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly upward impulse (v) is forming.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly upward impulse (a) of [d] is forming.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly downward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming.
But as the price is reluctant to break over the confirmatory levels we may interpret the horizontal construction in the green rectangle as a possible corrective wave. In this case further development of upward wave 4 isn’t ruled out.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly downward impulse (v) is forming.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 26, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:28 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Another phase of the weakening of the US dollar continues.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly upward impulse (v) is forming.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

According to a possible variant of counting of this section of the chart further forming of wave iii of (v) isn’t ruled out.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly upward impulse (a) of [d] is forming.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

According to a possible variant of counting further forming of wave iii of (a) isn’t ruled out.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly downward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming.
But as the price is reluctant to break over the confirmatory levels the horizontal construction in the green rectangle can be interpreted as a possible corrective wave. In this case further development of upward wave 4 isn’t ruled out.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly downward impulse (v) is forming.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

According to a possible variant of counting further forming of wave iii of (v) isn’t ruled out.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 27, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:32 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
1) Another phase of the weakening of the US dollar continues.
2) Today a video clip of Jim Martens, the leading specialist in FOREX, about his counting on the daily chart of EUR/USD of May 9, 2008 has been placed at the website Elliott Wave International .


Figure v.1. Wave counting of EUR/USD made in EWI on May 9, 2008

The video is called « Prepare for a Surprising U. S. Dollar Decline (Released May 09, 2008)» [«Prepare for a Surprising U. S. Dollar Decline (Released May 09, 2008)»].

Figure v.2 Wave counting of EUR/USD made by me on May 3, 2008

In spite of the fact that I cancelled my subscription for receiving materials from EWI many years ago Jim’s counting coincided fully with my variant released on May 3, 2008 in Monthly-0508. I’m sincerely glad as the opinion of respected experts from EWI is an additional argument in the favor of the scenario accepted by me.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly upward impulse (v) is forming.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

According to a possible variant of counting further forming of wave iii of (v) isn’t ruled out. A shoot up of the price is needed for its completion. It gives good chances for opening long positions.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly upward impulse (a) of [d] is developing.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

According to a possible variant of counting further forming of wave iii of (a) isn’t ruled out. A shoot up of the price is needed for its completion. It gives good chances for opening long positions.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly downward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming.
But as the price is reluctant to break the confirmatory levels we may interpret the horizontal construction in the green rectangle as a possible corrective wave. In this case further forming of upward wave 4 isn’t ruled out.
Using in the case the classical technical analysis we will have to guess, where the price will move — up or down (refer to the article Horizontal triangle — is it a reversal or a continuation pattern? (EUR/JPY)).

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

If we take into consideration the wave analysis of this section of the chart the down trend is preferred as a pair of downward impulse waves (impulse and wedge (i)) has formed, while upward waves are of corrective nature. This supposition requires its confirmation but gives good chances for opening short positions.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly downward impulse (v) is forming.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

According to a possible variant of counting further forming of wave iii of (v) isn’t ruled out. A shoot down of the price is needed for its completion. It gives good chances for opening short positions.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 28, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:33 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Another phase of the weakening of the US dollar continues.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly upward impulse (v) is forming.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

According to a possible variant of counting of this section of the chart further forming of wave iii of (v) is possible though relative proportions of the waves don’t rule out the alternate scenario at the top of the chart.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly upward impulse (a) of [d] is developing.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

According to a possible variant of counting of this section of the chart further forming of wave iii of (a) isn’t ruled out. The final shoot up of the price is needed for its completion.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly downward wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 is forming.
But as the price is reluctant to break over the confirmatory levels we may consider the horizontal construction in the green rectangle as a possible corrective wave. In this case a shift to the scenario v.3-dt, considered in Monthly-0508 (refer to Figure 6, below) isn’t ruled out.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-3-dt.

A minor regrouping of waves may give advantage to the developing horizontal correction that corresponds to the scenario v.3-dt (refer to Figure Y3 in Monthly-0508).
Whatever the case but the nearest expected price movement at least in the short term is downward.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly downward impulse (v) is developing.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.

According to a possible variants of counting of this section of the chart further forming of wave iii of (v) is possible though relative proportions of waves don’t rule out the alternate scenario at the bottom of the chart.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 29, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:34 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The dollar is reluctant to give ground. In the framework of the preferred scenario there remain only a pair of possible variants that will be considered in this article. The other variants will be considered in the forecast for June 2008 at the weekend.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly upward impulse (v) is developing.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly upward impulse (a) of [d] is developing.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The price broke the upper critical level but variant v.3 isn’t cancelled yet as the price entered the territory of wave 1 of (3) insignificantly and it is allowable for marginal markets.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

At the same time scenario v.3-dt gains weight, and in case of the further price rise it will come to the forefront.
We have to expect the confirmation of this or that variant.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0508. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Supposedly downward impulse (v) is developing.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 30, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:35 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In the near future the price will have to choose in what direction to move, thus confirming one of the variants considered in Monthly -0608.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Wave (v) may be assuming the shape of a diagonal triangle. But so far the variant with the development of upward waves 1-2, 1-2 of decreasing degrees (the alternate at the top of the chart) isn’t ruled out. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration the impulsive direction of the downward movement of the last days scenario v.3-a is preferred at the present. Downward zigzag 4 is forming in its framework.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition of zigzag 4 is true it isn’t ruled out that wave (i) of its leg [c] is completing.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart..

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Impulse (a) of [d] may be completed. In this case we should expect in the near future the development of upward wave (c) of [d] in the form of an impulse or diagonal triangle. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

But taking into consideration the supposed price movement of the other dollar pairs scenario v.3-a is preferred at the present. Downward diagonal triangle [c] of 4 is forming in its framework.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition of the diagonal triangle [c] of 4 is true it isn’t ruled out that wave [1] of a of (v) of [c] of 4 has assumed the shape of a wedge while wave [2] of a of (v) of [c] of 4 is completed.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart..

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The price broke the upper critical level but scenario v.3 isn’t cancelled as the price entered the territory of wave 1 of (3) insignificantly and it is permissible for marginal markets.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the impulsive direction of the upward movement of the last days scenario v.3-dt is preferred at the moment. Upward double zigzag [4] is forming in its framework.

Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

If the supposition of the double zigzag [4] is true wave C of (Y) of [4] may assume the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 10 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart..

Figure 10. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Wave (v) may be assuming the shape of a diagonal triangle. But so far scenario supposing the development of downward waves 1-2, 1-2 of decreasing degrees (the alternate at the bottom of the chart) isn’t ruled out. We have to expect the confirmation of disproof of this supposition.

Figure 11. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration the impulsive direction of the upward movement of the last days scenario v.3-a is preferred at the moment. Upward double zigzag 4 is forming in its framework.



If the supposition of double zigzag 4 is true it isn’t ruled out that wave (a) of its zigzag [y] of 4 is completing.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 2, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:40 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In the near future the price will have to choose in what direction to move, thus confirming one of the variants considered in Monthly-0608. So far scenario v.3-a is slightly preferred.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration the impulsive direction of the downward movement of the last days scenario v.3-a is preferred at the moment. In its frameworks downward zigzag 4 is forming.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition of zigzag 4 is true it isn’t ruled out that wave (ii) of its leg [c] is completing. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration the supposed price movement of the other dollar pairs at the moment scenario v.3-a is preferred. In its framework downward diagonal triangle [c] of 4 is forming.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition of diagonal triangle [c] of 4 is true it isn’t ruled out that wave [1] of a of (v) of [c] of 4 has assumed the shape of a wedge and now wave [3] of a of (v) of [c] of 4 is developing.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the impulsive direction of the upward movement of the last days at the moment scenario v.3-dt is preferred. In its framework upward zigzag [4] is forming.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

If the supposition of double zigzag [4] is true wave C of (Y) of [4] may assume the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle. It isn’t ruled out that wave [ii] of impulse C is completing.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration the impulsive direction of the upward movement of the last day at the moment scenario v.3-a is preferred. In its framework upward double zigzag 4 is forming.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-a.

If the supposition of double zigzag 4 is true it isn’t ruled out that wave (b) of its zigzag [y] of 4 is completing.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:40 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In the near future the price will have to choose in what direction to move, thus confirming one of the variants considered in Monthly-0608. So far scenario v.3-a is slightly preferred.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Upward wave (v) may be assuming the shape of a diagonal triangle. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration the impulsive direction of the downward movement of the last days at the moment scenario v.3-a is preferred. In its framework downward zigzag 4 is forming.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The development of upward wave (c) of [d] in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle isn’t ruled out in the near future. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration the supposed price movement of the other dollar pairs at the moment scenario v.3-a is preferred. In its framework downward diagonal triangle [c] of 4 is forming.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The price is in the territory of wave 1 of (3), but variant v.3 isn’t cancelled as the penetration of the price is insignificant and permissible for marginal markets. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the impulsive direction of the upward movement of the last days at the present scenario v.3-dt is preferred. In its framework upward double zigzag [4] is forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Perhaps wave (v) is assuming the shape of a diagonal triangle. But so far the variant with the development of downward waves 1-2, 1-2 of decreasing levels (the alternated at the bottom of the chart) isn’t ruled out. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration the impulsive direction of the upward movement of the last days at the moment scenario v.3-a is preferred. In its framework upward double zigzag 4 is forming.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 4, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 11:41 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In the near future the price will have to choose in what direction to move, thus confirming one of the variants considered in Monthly-0608.
Yesterday only the pair GBP/USD showed relative activity. The other currency pairs under consideration were treading water. Perhaps they are waiting for the results of the ECB and the Bank of England monetary policy meetings and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's accompanying comments (today at 15:00, 15:45 and 16:30 Moscow, correspondingly).
In spite of slight preference given to the alternate variants v.3-a at the moment such treading of water of the price shifts stresses in the favor of the main variants v.3 and forms the wave counting, that doesn’t rule out the beginning of a new stage of the US dollar weakening in the near term.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Upward wave (v) may be assuming the shape of a diagonal triangle or wave four (iv) may be assuming the shape of a triple three. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The wave counting allows the completion of the supposed wave 4 in the form of a truncated zigzag that doesn’t rule out the beginning of a new stage of the dollar’s weakening in the near term (the rise of EUR/USD).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

It isn’t ruled out that the beginning of upward wave (c) of [d] in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle should be expected in the near term. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of the supposition.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration the supposed price movement of other dollar pairs at the present scenario v.3-a is preferred. In its framework downward diagonal triangle [c] of 4 is forming.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

The price is in the territory of wave 1 of (3), but variant v.3 isn’t cancelled yet as the penetration of the price is insignificant and permissible for marginal markets. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

Scenario v.3-dt is more optimal from the point of view of the correlation of waves. The wave counting of this scenario also doesn’t rule out the beginning of a new stage of the dollar’s weakening in the near term (the decline of USD/JPY).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0608. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Wave (v) may be assuming the shape of a diagonal triangle. But so far the variant with the development of downward waves 1-2, 1-2 of decreasing degrees (the alternate at the bottom of the chart) isn’t ruled out. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this supposition.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The wave counting doesn’t rule out the completion of the supposed wave 4 in the form of a double three with a horizontal triangle or a short zigzag at the end, i.e. it doesn’t rule out the beginning of a new stage of the dollar’s weakening in the near term (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 5, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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