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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:21 | 显示全部楼层
Nov 25, 2008 9:10pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


EurChf Chart..

Wave 5 is in progress..
Attached Thumbnails   

  #947   
Nov 26, 2008 4:38pm
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
Updated count for Usdchf..


very good enter sell

continution usd chf 1h 2 or b
Attached Thumbnails   


  #948   
Nov 27, 2008 2:44am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts


Eurochart wave4 correction has ended? I think we have two main options here (in this euro count alternative, which is my favourite):
  • correction could still continue and thus the last wave is not waveC, but a beginning of a new correction wave, of which wave a is complete
  • correction is over, we have waveC, and expect wave5 down
In any case, I'm not yet expecting a bigger move up, price still has to complete the cycle. If this is the case, then also swissie needs to make one more move up, perhaps to 1.26 level.

It seems we have a head and shoulders forming up, which would suggest further downmoves.




  #949   
Nov 27, 2008 7:52am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts


Looks like wave B is about to complete (or continue as a triple ZZ, which is less likely imo). Target for the next move is still the same, near 92.4

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy

Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader
Here is the UJ wave count I have for 4H chart. Waiting for ...

That looks like a clear correction, which is about to be completed. A couple of comments though...

Also I'm a little sceptical if wave B is complete. It looks good, but it lacks a decent support, so I expect it to drift a little lower, to 92.4. But this is my speculation, from ew viewpoint everything in wB is ok.





  #950   
Nov 27, 2008 8:56am
belekas
Senior Member
Member Since Sep 2007

  2,862 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy
Looks like wave B is about to complete (or continue as a triple ZZ, which is less likely imo). Target for the next move is still the same, near 92.4

Nice downtrend channel on the 1hr. And i agree about the target beying @ the LTL around 92.50/40 Posting a clean chart.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:22 | 显示全部楼层
Nov 27, 2008 9:05am
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007

149 Posts

Euro
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy
Looks like wave B is about to complete (or continue as a triple ZZ, which is less likely imo). Target for the next move is still the same, near 92.4



Attachment 175359


Could we have just completed a Triple 3 on the Euro??
Attached Thumbnails   

  #952   
Nov 27, 2008 9:33am
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007

149 Posts

Euro
Or, the triangle continues...
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  #953   
Nov 27, 2008 11:18am
SunTrader
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006

  4,413 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy
Looks like wave B is about to complete (or continue as a triple ZZ, which is less likely imo). Target for the next move is still the same, near 92.4

I put UJ 1H aside for the moment, because it seems that (many other markets too) are just having one corrective pattern after another.

So until things settled themselves out I'll just be watching and waiting for a "clean" breakout to start numbering waves of a trend again.

With hindsight I should have been trying to catch beginnings of Wave C's. Oh well.

  #954   
Nov 28, 2008 12:34am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts


That is one alternative. Many counts (this one, triangle in the middle, my count) propose that now one cycle has ended. Let's see if that means the correction is over...


Quote:
Originally Posted by pipeye
Could we have just completed a Triple 3 on the Euro??



  #955   
Nov 28, 2008 4:26pm
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

EUR GBP
eur gbp end wave 2 or b
start down trend
Attached Thumbnails   


  #956   
Dec 1, 2008 6:42am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts

Cable count



  #957   
Dec 2, 2008 6:24am
j-pax
Member
Member Since May 2008

36 Posts

elwave
hello wavecounters,

i just bought the frost @ prechter book and am looking for charting software outside my mt4. i am totaly new to EW.

i am thinking about buying elwave basic for 80 eur. this is not automated. does someone have experience with this software??

if this is not the thread to ask, i am sorry.
thank you for all the charts here, the are very usefull for a beginner.

greets jacco

  #958   
Dec 2, 2008 6:53am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
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  125 Posts

eur usd
eur usd start up trend
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:23 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 2, 2008 7:44pm
Blue bottle
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  594 Posts


Hi all,

my usdchf chart..


Looks wave 2 or b is completed at 1.2198..hence looking for C..
Attached Thumbnails   

  #962   
Dec 2, 2008 7:53pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by j-pax
hello wavecounters,

i just bought the frost @ prechter book and am looking for charting software outside my mt4. i am totaly new to EW.

i am thinking about buying elwave basic for 80 eur. this is not automated. does someone have experience with this software??

if this is not the thread to ask, i am sorry.
thank you for all the charts here, the are very usefull for a beginner.

greets jacco



Hi Jacco,

Its alright to ask newbie questions here, so no worries.

About the software, i never heard about it and i dun recommend software for EW.

The good way of learning EW is by practicing yourself. Read everything u can and practice counts on chart..

  #963   
Dec 2, 2008 7:55pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Eurchf chart..

Looking for bearish..
Attached Thumbnails      


  #964   
Dec 2, 2008 8:16pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


UsdCad chart..


wave 2 or B is in action.. we may go short once it break lower trend line..
Attached Thumbnails   


  #965   
Dec 2, 2008 8:21pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


GbpJpy chart...
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  #966   
Dec 2, 2008 8:33pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari
eur gbp end wave 2 or b
start down trend



Good chart bro!!

My chart is exactly same like yours.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:23 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 2, 2008 8:42pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


EurGbp chart..

Will w5 go for new high? or truncated w5?
Attached Thumbnails   

  #968   
Dec 2, 2008 8:44pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Audusd chart
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  #969   
Dec 2, 2008 8:58pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Hi all,

anyone with EurGbp monthly chart? pls post here...

My MT4 platform only shows monthly chart since 1979. Don't knw why..

Anybody with some idea why all my charts starts from 1979 only..?

..
Attached Thumbnails   


  #970   
Dec 2, 2008 9:14pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


EurUsd chart...
Attached Thumbnails      


  #971   
Dec 2, 2008 9:19pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
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  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
EurUsd chart...


Other possibility..
Attached Thumbnails   


  #972   
Dec 3, 2008 12:27am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
EurGbp chart..

Will w5 go for new high? or truncated w5?



ok very good
wave 5:5:c perhapes filor

  #973   
Dec 3, 2008 12:29am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
UsdCad chart..


wave 2 or B is in action.. we may go short once it break lower trend line..



very good

  #974   
Dec 3, 2008 1:01am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari
very good


Thanks Saeidhidari..

Nowadays busy with my day job so no much time for detailed analysis. and more chance for wrong counts..

So please correct me if i miss something..

  #975   
Dec 3, 2008 1:06am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
EurGbp chart..

Will w5 go for new high? or truncated w5?



Eurgbp chart in 15mins
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:24 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 3, 2008 2:57am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
Eurgbp chart in 15mins

OK
WAVE 5 you formation 3 small wave and wave b is
wave 4 irregullar
wave 5 filor

sorry on your analysis I said my opinion
Attached Thumbnails      

  #977   
Dec 3, 2008 3:01am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
Thanks Saeidhidari..

Nowadays busy with my day job so no much time for detailed analysis. and more chance for wrong counts..

So please correct me if i miss something..



tank you
If I have time I will help you .

  #978   
Dec 3, 2008 3:30am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

usd cad
usd cad
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  #979   
Dec 3, 2008 4:46pm
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

usd cad
usd cad close in daily candel (hangin man )
enter to market under low

analysis in h4
triger (RD) robert miner in prz for wave 2
time in 0:0 4dec

good treiger
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  #980   
Dec 4, 2008 12:51am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Cable chart
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  #981   
Dec 4, 2008 12:54am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


GbpJpy chart..
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  #982   
Dec 4, 2008 11:23pm
bohebolo
Pattern Trader
Member Since Oct 2005

33 Posts

short term bullish?
below is possible wave count on gbpusd
target is around 1.5100

what do you think guys? any alternative count, anyone?
cheers...
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:25 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 4, 2008 11:35pm
Rocroy
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Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts


Hi bohebolo, check my prev posting to this thread, which shows the big count for cable. Imo cable continues down, after short correction of the first wave of wave5. This is also shown by fibs: a major support (261) has been broken, which indicates further downmove.

Possible targets for the correction are at the moment 1.492 and 1.510 (which is too optimistic imo)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bohebolo
below is possible wave count on gbpusd
target is around 1.5100

what do you think guys? any alternative count, anyone?
cheers...




Last edited by Rocroy, Dec 4, 2008 11:48pm
  #984   
Dec 5, 2008 12:17am
bohebolo
Pattern Trader
Member Since Oct 2005

33 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy
Hi bohebolo, check my prev posting to this thread, which shows the big count for cable. Imo cable continues down, after short correction of the first wave of wave5. This is also shown by fibs: a major support (261) has been broken, which indicates further downmove.

Possible targets for the correction are at the moment 1.492 and 1.510 (which is too optimistic imo)



Attachment 178195


i'm agree with you rocroy.
usually this correction will end around previous end of wave iv, which is around 1.5060

  #985   
Dec 5, 2008 5:08am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

GBP JPY
GBP JPY W-D-H4-H1
Attached Thumbnails           




  #986   
Dec 5, 2008 6:15am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

GBP CHF
GBP CHF M-W-D-H1
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  #987   
Dec 5, 2008 1:01pm
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


euro count daily.
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  #988   
Dec 7, 2008 4:16pm
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

INDEX USD
Index Usd
New Low In Chart
Start New Trend In Usd
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  #989   
Dec 7, 2008 10:02pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


GbpJpy chart..
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  #990   
Dec 7, 2008 10:30pm
Blue bottle
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  594 Posts


NzdUsd chart..
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:26 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 8, 2008 3:41am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts

USDCAD
USCAD.
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  #992   
Dec 8, 2008 7:50pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


UsdCHf chart..
Attached Thumbnails   


  #993   
Dec 8, 2008 8:17pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


UsdJpy chart...
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  #994   
Dec 8, 2008 8:27pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by soso
USCAD.


Good chart soso.

Your chart will be my primary count if the red color trend line not gonna break..
Attached Thumbnails   

Last edited by Blue bottle, Dec 8, 2008 8:46pm

  #995   
Dec 8, 2008 11:39pm
bohebolo
Pattern Trader
Member Since Oct 2005

33 Posts


anyone has short term update for GBPUSD?
is it already finished the correction @ 1.5045?

i count the last rally as zigzag, but the c leg only 3 waves.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:26 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 9, 2008 8:51am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

gbp usd
gbp usd
end wave b
confirmation 2 pattern
garrtly & bat

line blue bat
line red garrtly .
Attached Thumbnails   

  #997   
Dec 9, 2008 8:57am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts


usd cad
ellito & wolfy
down trend
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  #998   
Dec 9, 2008 9:37am
alex12
Member
Member Since Aug 2008

87 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari
gbp usd
end wave b
confirmation 2 pattern
garrtly & bat

line blue bat
line red garrtly .


It seems to be the end of wave B and looks a very good Gartly as well but would you really go long against such a strong down trend ( lower highs and lower lows in daily /4h and 1h??

  #999   
Dec 9, 2008 11:09am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts

My cable scenario
Quote:
Originally Posted by bohebolo
anyone has short term update for GBPUSD?
is it already finished the correction @ 1.5045?

i count the last rally as zigzag, but the c leg only 3 waves.





  #1000   
Dec 9, 2008 1:23pm
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by alex12
It seems to be the end of wave B and looks a very good Gartly as well but would you really go long against such a strong down trend ( lower highs and lower lows in daily /4h and 1h??

OK
END WAVE B
start wave c

  #1001   
Dec 9, 2008 1:25pm
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

nzd usd
nzd usd
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  #1002   
Dec 9, 2008 1:30pm
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

usd jpy
usd jpy
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  #1003   
Dec 9, 2008 1:37pm
alex12
Member
Member Since Aug 2008

87 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari
OK
END WAVE B
start wave c


Well done . you were right.

  #1004   
Dec 9, 2008 4:26pm
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

gbp jpy
gbp jpy
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:27 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 10, 2008 3:23am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by bohebolo
nice call saeid, it bounce from there...
do you have longer term wave count on cable?


ok
gbp usd
Attached Thumbnails   

  #1008   
Dec 10, 2008 4:38am
bohebolo
Pattern Trader
Member Since Oct 2005

33 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari
ok
gbp usd


thanks dude..

  #1009   
Dec 10, 2008 5:41am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts

USDCAD
USDCAD H4.

USDCAD might offer us a chance to position short for the scenario I posted a couple of days ago. If price gets near ~1.279 area I'll look for confirmatory price action to enter short.
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  #1010   
Dec 10, 2008 5:51am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts

EURUSD
EURUSD H4.

Guys I know that most of you have bearish counts on EURUSD, for obvious reasons. But I think it is worth to consider bullish alternatives as a lot of people are bearish EURUSD and in these situations many times the market does exactly the opposite.

I'll look for a corrective move towards 1.272 area and if price action allows it I'll get long for 1.34.
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  #1011   
Dec 10, 2008 11:45am
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by soso
EURUSD H4.

Guys I know that most of you have bearish counts on EURUSD, for obvious reasons. But I think it is worth to consider bullish alternatives as a lot of people are bearish EURUSD and in these situations many times the market does exactly the opposite.

I'll look for a corrective move towards 1.272 area and if price action allows it I'll get long for 1.34.


thanks soso. i had re-evaluated my count this moring and it came out exactly as yours. and now that the swissy is about to reverse, i don't see eu going down any further for now.

  #1012   
Dec 10, 2008 11:21pm
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts

My euro and swissie charts
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc
thanks soso. i had re-evaluated my count this moring and it came out exactly as yours. and now that the swissy is about to reverse, i don't see eu going down any further for now.




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:28 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 10, 2008 11:35pm
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts


Hi bohebolo, I don't think that cable can break 161 fib line, so a good exit might be at the line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bohebolo
great, at least we are bullish at the moment.
btw, i'm always curious with fibo line that you draw.
why did you put 0 line & 100 line there?

but it quite accurate...


Originally Posted by Rocroy
Attachment 179949
  #1014   
Dec 11, 2008 10:50am
pinchapip
Infractions Overload
Member Since Jun 2007

807 Posts


E/U Bearish butterfly confirmed so far (4 hour time frame). We should go down from where we are now (127 fib) or the last leg will extend till 161.8 then down big
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Last edited by pinchapip, Dec 11, 2008 11:01am

  #1015   
Dec 11, 2008 11:30am
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts


USD CAD
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  #1016   
Dec 12, 2008 2:38am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by pinchapip
E/U Bearish butterfly confirmed so far (4 hour time frame). We should go down from where we are now (127 fib) or the last leg will extend till 161.8 then down big

Not sure at this point if the up move ended yet, I'd rather see it go till 1.36-1.37 area, there's a lot of confluence in there.
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  #1017   
Dec 12, 2008 2:41am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts

USDCAD
USDCAD, H4.

I believe down trend is in danger now. We stopped exactly at c = a and from here I'll look for impulse moves up and wait for retracement to enter the market.

If the current low doesn't hold the next one is at 1.18 area.
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  #1018   
Dec 12, 2008 3:05am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts

EURCHF
EURCHF.

Am looking for confirmatory price action to short. It didnt really touch the confluence level so it could still go a bit higher. Unfolding in beautifully clear waves.
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  #1019   
Dec 12, 2008 6:42pm
Slight
Member
Member Since May 2008

  252 Posts


EURUSD

Might seem as if it's going higher and higher - I say it won't .. see chart for more. TF: daily
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  #1020   
Dec 13, 2008 5:47pm
alex12
Member
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87 Posts


Could this be a Gartly on 4h Gpb/Usd . Shallow or deeper gartly?
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:35 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 13, 2008 5:52pm
Slight
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I say higher on the daily outlook.
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  #1022   
Dec 14, 2008 11:56am
5ysfx
Futurologist/pogodynka
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Hello EW friends

Swissy count
ABCDE corrective pattern i suppose.
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  #1023   
Dec 14, 2008 12:51pm
Slight
Member
Member Since May 2008

  252 Posts


I see an a-b-c corrective pattern developing on USDCHF. I suppose we are in a wave 1 of wave a.
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  #1024   
Dec 14, 2008 10:13pm
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by 5ysfx
Hello EW friends

Swissy count
ABCDE corrective pattern i suppose.


nice. that means no new low for eu.

  #1025   
Dec 14, 2008 10:18pm
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

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please comment. eur/gbp weekly count.
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1026   
Dec 15, 2008 3:41am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc
please comment. eur/gbp weekly count.

I too am waiting for a top, preferably around 0.92.
Attached Thumbnails   

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  #1027   
Dec 15, 2008 10:50am
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by soso
I too am waiting for a top, preferably around 0.92.

ah~ thank you, soso.

  #1028   
Dec 15, 2008 11:20am
bohebolo
Pattern Trader
Member Since Oct 2005

33 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari
ok
gbp usd


Hi saeid,

it's seem your C target on cable has been reached.
Do you have an update count for short term cable?

  #1029   
Dec 15, 2008 11:36am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by soso
I too am waiting for a top, preferably around 0.92.


I'm expecting 1 more wave UP as w5..

wat you guys think?
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1030   
Dec 15, 2008 11:43am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Hi all,

My usdchf chart,,

Different from 5ysfx view..
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1031   
Dec 15, 2008 11:48am
Slight
Member
Member Since May 2008

  252 Posts


I don't see your logic behind that USDCHF chart blue bottle. How can you have an abc (CORRECTIVE!) upwards, when it makes one new high after the other.. that is surely a 5 wave move up 1-2-3-4-5 .. now we entering the a-b-c stuff ...

This is what I have.

edit: I just noticed I posted the same chart a couple of posts higher. So to avoid the repost see post #1023
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  #1032   
Dec 15, 2008 11:58am
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
Hi all,

My usdchf chart,,

Different from 5ysfx view..


blue, doesn't c wave always subdivided by 5 waves?

  #1033   
Dec 15, 2008 12:00pm
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Slight
I don't see your logic behind that USDCHF chart blue bottle. How can you have an abc (CORRECTIVE!) upwards, when it makes one new high after the other.. that is surely a 5 wave move up 1-2-3-4-5 .. now we entering the a-b-c stuff ...

This is what I have.

edit: I just noticed I posted the same chart a couple of posts higher. So to avoid the repost see post #1023


i agree with blue. the up move looks to be abc. the start of this wave was abc, it seems.

  #1034   
Dec 15, 2008 12:11pm
Slight
Member
Member Since May 2008

  252 Posts


According to how I count waves it couldn't be just an abc move. Looking at the weekly I would say this upmove was a wave 4 ... and wave 4s structures are hard to determine. However, looking at the daily not being sure about the weekly, I clearly see the perfect setup for a 5 wave move up (see comments on chart).. which is finished now .. and now south south south.
I could be wrong :P
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:40 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 15, 2008 1:43pm
alex12
Member
Member Since Aug 2008

87 Posts


Probably Gartly sell pattern has formed?
Attached Thumbnails   

  #1040   
Dec 15, 2008 4:00pm
SunTrader
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006

  4,413 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by alex12
Probably Gartly sell pattern has formed?

You might be right, but this topic is about Elliott Waves???????

  #1041   
Dec 15, 2008 4:02pm
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
I'm expecting 1 more wave UP as w5..

wat you guys think?


Possible BB although I'm not going as down as 15m, my main resistance area is at 0.92 - 0.925 while the top as of today is at 0.902 so a couple of hundred pips short.
But this doesnt mean that wave 5 top is not in. See attached picture, the big momentum bearish bar stopped right on the lower trendline of the channel. If it breaks we might not have a chance for another top.

Looking at EURCHF, this pic and a few posts back, I think we are near the top, if really will be one. EURUSD also touched ret 38% of the whole move down today. If it will be weakness I believe it will be euro weakness against everything else.

So my main strategy is to launch 1st short if the current Outside Bar breaks down (meaning the TL breaks too).
For EURCHF I need an impulsive move down to get in as you can clearly see we are still making higher highs.

One thing, we might go higher without looking back till next year, December is known as profit taking month so if we pierce through the EURCHF and/or EURUSD resistance levels I will stay out of shorts till next year.

Good luck everyone!
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  #1042   
Dec 15, 2008 6:31pm
alex12
Member
Member Since Aug 2008

87 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader
You might be right, but this topic is about Elliott Waves???????

Sorry ,you are right. I realised later and posted it in the appropriate thread which is pattern trading.

  #1043   
Dec 15, 2008 11:52pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
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  594 Posts


EurChf chart..
Attached Thumbnails   

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:41 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 18, 2008 2:31am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts

EURCHF & USDCAD
EURCHF: Beautiful unfolding, all trendlines broken at this point so I would expect at least a 50% retracement we didn't see 38% so there's a lot of room to fall. I'll look to add to shorts if we get a decent retracement.

USCAD: I think USDCAD is in a good buying position, IF PA allows it.

P.S. EURGBP made new strong highs so at this point it is off my radar for the time being.
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  #1045   
Dec 18, 2008 3:59am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


EurGbp Chart in 5mins timeframe..

Is it the TOP?
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1046   
Dec 18, 2008 8:20am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts

USDCAD
It touched the confluence level and reversed.
As long as we dont have new lows I have 2 BUY orders at 1.2 and 1.212 and I am looking for new highs.

Good luck everyone!
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  #1047   
Dec 19, 2008 2:02am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts

5mins EurUsd chart
hi all, looks good for short position..
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1048   
Dec 19, 2008 2:38am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


EurChf chart
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1049   
Dec 19, 2008 2:51am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Eur Usd chart..

1 of the possibility..
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1050   
Dec 19, 2008 2:54am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


My cable chart..

Pls commant/..


Edit: Pls ignore this chart.. wb of W4 counted wrongly.
Attached Thumbnails   

Last edited by Blue bottle, Dec 19, 2008 4:49am
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:41 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 19, 2008 3:02am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


UsdChf chart..
Attached Thumbnails   

  #1052   
Dec 19, 2008 3:19am
hymns
Member
Member Since Oct 2006

5 Posts


Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd & Usd/Cad
Attached Thumbnails         

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  #1053   
Dec 19, 2008 3:34am
5ysfx
Futurologist/pogodynka
Member Since Jul 2008

  2,708 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
UsdChf chart..

i like ur chart
i see end of C around 161.8% or 261.8%
Fasten ur seatbelt
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  #1054   
Dec 19, 2008 3:39am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by 5ysfx
i like ur chart
i see end of C around 161.8% or 261.8%
Fasten ur seatbelt



Thanks...

I placed red color trend line as my target
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:42 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 19, 2008 4:02am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


AusUsd chart..
Attached Thumbnails   

  #1057   
Dec 19, 2008 4:07am
5ysfx
Futurologist/pogodynka
Member Since Jul 2008

  2,708 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
AusUsd chart..

BB wave 1 longer than 3 ?
could u explain this
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  #1058   
Dec 19, 2008 4:10am
bohebolo
Pattern Trader
Member Since Oct 2005

33 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
My cable chart..

Pls commant/..



Hi BB,

your wave b of 4 looks impulsive for me..

  #1059   
Dec 19, 2008 4:14am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by 5ysfx
BB wave 1 longer than 3 ?
could u explain this



I took it as extension 1st wave.. Refer attachement fig 4-5.

I might be wrong too..
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1060   
Dec 19, 2008 4:23am
5ysfx
Futurologist/pogodynka
Member Since Jul 2008

  2,708 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
I took it as extension 1st wave.. Refer attachement fig 4-5.

I might be wrong too..


kk
roger that
everyday day something new
green pips to all of u
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  #1061   
Dec 19, 2008 4:26am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by bohebolo
Hi BB,

your wave b of 4 looks impulsive for me..


You are right bro.

I missed something there. Wave B shouldn't be impulsive.

Please ignore my chart, i need to recount it.

  #1062   
Dec 19, 2008 4:35am
soso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007

  177 Posts


Continuing http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1046

Both orders activated, and just tighten the first stop a bit. I will try to hold these longer because if this is the start of a wave 3 then we should go at least 100% wave 1.

Good luck everyone.
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  #1063   
Dec 19, 2008 4:41am
5ysfx
Futurologist/pogodynka
Member Since Jul 2008

  2,708 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by soso
Continuing http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1046

Both orders activated, and just tighten the first stop a bit. I will try to hold these longer because if this is the start of a wave 3 then we should go at least 100% wave 1.

Good luck everyone.


saw that great job bro
amazing how many of us have different trading style but conlusion is most of the times same
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  #1064   
Dec 19, 2008 4:47am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
You are right bro.

I missed something there. Wave B shouldn't be impulsive.

Please ignore my chart, i need to recount it.



my reversed cable count..

Wht you guys think?
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:43 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 19, 2008 8:26am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts


My cable count, where wave c of wB is IM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
My cable chart..

Pls commant/..




  #1068   
Dec 19, 2008 12:44pm
SunTrader
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006

  4,413 Posts


Wave 1 can be longer than Wave 3 -

Wave 3 can't be the shortest of W 1/3/5, but Wave 3 can be shorter than either Wave 1 or 5 but not both.
Last edited by SunTrader, Dec 19, 2008 12:55pm

  #1069   
Dec 20, 2008 4:53am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


EurChf chart..
Attached Thumbnails   

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  #1070   
Dec 20, 2008 2:34pm
saeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008

  125 Posts

gbp usd
gbp usd up trend
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1071   
Dec 20, 2008 3:09pm
ivanhoe
Member
Member Since Nov 2008

2 Posts


This is my first post to this site so if I’m in the wrong thread I apologize and please direct me to the newbies thread. I’m new to EW and am wondering what to make of my miscount shown in the chart. What would I call the continuation of the trend after the 5 wave?
Actually thought the count was looking good.




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:44 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 21, 2008 1:27am
FXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007

  206 Posts

Extensions
Quote:
Originally Posted by ivanhoe
This is my first post to this site so if I’m in the wrong thread I apologize and please direct me to the newbies thread. I’m new to EW and am wondering what to make of my miscount shown in the chart. What would I call the continuation of the trend after the 5 wave?
Actually thought the count was looking good.


Hi Ivanhoe. Welcome. You are in the right thread.

May I suggest you should study the Elliot Wave Principle - Robert Prechter, or some other reliable source to get the basics down.

The short answer is impulse waves extend so one of either 1, 3, or 5 is at least 1.618 longer than the next longest. Generally, it is wave 3. A good clue is wave 3 extensions channel fairly well - with a slight parabolic incline toward vertical. 1st extensions do not channel well, they spread out like a fan getting larger; while 5th extensions tend to narrow like the Eiffel tower shape.

Extensions are a requirement in my book, subdivisions are optional, the three impulses cannot be about equal to each other, one needs to be longer. And 3 cannot be the shortest or shorter than 2.

The trick is to spot the overlap in the 1, 2 waves, with a smaller i, ii, iii, iv, v extension to complete 3, finished by a final 4, 5. Look to see if wave 3 is short and retraces below the top of wave 1 - an impulse rule.

After many attempts, you can spot extensions real time with good accuracy. Look for 9 wave (or 13) as the impulsive count. In other words, 5 peaks and 4 valleys. If it counts as 3, 7, 11... then it is corrective - likely zig-zags if you count 2, 4, 6 or 8 peaks.

AFTER a 5 wave impulse, you will get a corrective :3 pattern in simple or complex form. Euro/Usd completed a C wave at 1.47, and made a 5 wave move down in 1 or C to 1.38 (in my preferred count).

Blue Bottle posted this chart from Prechters online course a dozen posts ago.

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  #1073   
Dec 21, 2008 8:41am
Barak's pip
Member
Member Since May 2008

237 Posts

e\u
what do u think?
Attached Thumbnails      

Last edited by Barak's pip, Dec 21, 2008 9:26am

  #1074   
Dec 21, 2008 9:04am
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


geppy 1hr count.
Attached Thumbnails   

Last edited by pkimnyc, Dec 21, 2008 3:45pm

  #1075   
Dec 21, 2008 12:17pm
hymns
Member
Member Since Oct 2006

5 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
good charts hymns..

i guess u r new here, warm welcome to our EW thread..

Are you from Johor, Malaysia?


hello blue bottle,

yeah! new on ur thread . just share my chart.
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  #1076   
Dec 21, 2008 3:11pm
SunTrader
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006

  4,413 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc
guppy 1hr count.

Guppy is a ozzie trader with a MA technique named after him. That is geppy.

  #1077   
Dec 21, 2008 3:45pm
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader
Guppy is a ozzie trader with a MA technique named after him. That is geppy.

thanks for the correction.

  #1078   
Dec 21, 2008 3:55pm
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


dow weekly count. looks like we are screwed.
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1079   
Dec 21, 2008 4:19pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


GbpJpy Monthly Chart.

Attached Thumbnails   

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:45 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 22, 2008 10:18pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


EurUsd chart

2 possibilities..
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  #1084   
Dec 22, 2008 11:13pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


hi all,

UsdCad daily chart..
Attached Thumbnails   

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  #1085   
Dec 22, 2008 11:14pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
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  594 Posts


Usdcad 4h chart
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  #1086   
Dec 23, 2008 12:54am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts


Well, talking about corrections, take a look at Prechter's book on page 153 which has a dow count starting from 1780, and you could say that "we haven't seen nothing yet". Maybe this is the early beginning of a major correction, who knows? But the circumstances for that are slowly building up. Climate change probably has a role as a starter of the correction.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc
dow weekly count. looks like we are screwed.



  #1087   
Dec 23, 2008 2:24am
FXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007

  206 Posts

Euro chart
I expect we have seen the high for the Euro retracement, and should see another 5 large wave impulse as (C) continue lower. I can count the first small 5 waves down now as 1, and perhaps the final v of c wave of 2 is close to complete. That opens the door for a 3rd wave down, one of the best trade setups.



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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:45 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 23, 2008 4:44am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
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  594 Posts


EurChf chart..
Attached Thumbnails   

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  #1089   
Dec 23, 2008 10:38am
Barak's pip
Member
Member Since May 2008

237 Posts

chf\jpy
a lot of attention to the chf , what do you think about this count?
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1090   
Dec 24, 2008 2:04pm
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007

  2,918 Posts


have a great holiday guys, and many pips to us in year 2009.

  #1091   
Dec 24, 2008 9:04pm
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


happy holiday to all..
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  #1092   
Dec 26, 2008 1:58pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

  1,794 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
hi all,

UsdCad daily chart..



CORRECT me if I am wrong. BUT is this one of those rare instances when a WAVE 2 forms a TRIANGLE?

WAVE 2 I think should end at "c" while "d" and "e" could be wave 3.1 and 3.2 . AT least as far as I can see and if I remember the guidelines. besides, check your oscillator, a triangle on the chart should also show a triangle on the oscillator
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  #1093   
Dec 26, 2008 4:24pm
Trader4ever
Member4Ever
Member Since Dec 2008

147 Posts

trade
Here's a good eliot wave chart.
Attached Thumbnails   


  #1094   
Dec 26, 2008 5:34pm
Sixer
Member
Member Since Nov 2008

34 Posts

UsdCad
el grande,

did wave "5" started already or we are still in wave "4" ??

Sixer





  #1095   
Dec 26, 2008 11:27pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

  1,794 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Sixer
el grande,

did wave "5" started already or we are still in wave "4" ??

Sixer




IMHO I think USDCAD is still in a wave 4 of a wave 3 or possibly forming a BARRIER TRIANGLE or a FLAT Triangle on the DAILY CHART. THAT is just my take on this pair now. BUT I would not trade/BUY this until it BREAKS out from that 1.3100 level.

THE PURPLE (IV) is too short in time in relation to the purple (II). That is why I think the (IV) is not yet finished. BUT once price breaks the 1.3100 level, then I would take that cue as the Looney being in the wave 5 already.

NOTE that there is a probability IMO that wave 5 will not be that powerful as it has retraced to within 50-60% of wave 3.

Anyway, I prefer to trade the CABLE. CONSIDER this as just a rambling from a trader.
Attached Thumbnails      

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Last edited by el grande, Dec 27, 2008 4:34pm
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-12 08:46 | 显示全部楼层
Dec 27, 2008 4:51pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

  1,794 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle
I'm glad that your are here El grande..

Initially i counted this up move as correction and wB goes as triangle. When i redraw it as impulse waves and w2 as abc, it leads to many (i guess 3) nested impulse waves and truncate 5th wave.

So changed w2 as triangle, then it matches well with charts, with sharp w4 retrace. Very rarely count triangle w2, if i'm not wrong its 1st time. I might be wrong too..

Can i request ur chart please, since a picture speak thousand words.


BB

I did not say you were wrong because you may have seen something I failed to see. Anyway, I posted my earlier chart count in my previous post.

But here I am attaching a revised count using the Stochastics as a guide.

However, you will see that if I start with the weekly count, my earlier count on the Daily will be revised. The last 2 charts is the alternative count.

EG
Attached Thumbnails         

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Last edited by el grande, Dec 27, 2008 5:58pm
  #1100   
Dec 27, 2008 9:40pm
doji
Member
Member Since Oct 2007

75 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by toshi
Just my opinion, but markets would still function as they always do
only difference is the population would cease to reproduce and
test tube babies would become commonplace.

In the Euro drop from 160 to 123, some saw 1 2 3 waves, then a triangle which should have been terminal,
were looking for that to be the 4th wave, then awaiting a 5th, suddenly, the market ran up 2000+ pips in just a few days,
violated the price of wave 1 and are now looking at maybe 160 to 123 was an ABC 3 wave correction of an "A"
and then this last 2000 pip run up was...


LOL! Now you got me something new to think about...test-tube babies!

Btw, I'm glad to see my countryman "el grande" posting here at FF again.

Happy, profitable 2009 all...

  #1101   
Dec 28, 2008 2:14am
Blue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007

  594 Posts


cable chartt
Attached Thumbnails   

__________________
Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

  #1102   
Dec 28, 2008 2:36am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007

  513 Posts

My euro and cable charts



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