一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Danger ahead for China?

U.S. Investors would be quite happy if the S&P went up 11.5% in a year.  What would you think if the S&P suddenly went up 11.5% per week ... every WEEK, for six and a half weeks?   A total move of 74.8% in less than two months?

I discussed the Shanghai 180 Index last week with our paid subscribers.   From November 13th. of last year to January 29th., it went up 74.8% as Chinese buyers took out mortgages and charge card advances so they could "jump in" on the get rich train.  If the same pace were to last one year, the Shanghai would go up 598%.  

Let's put this into perspective.  At the height of the internet bubble, from November 1999 to March 2000, the NASDAQ 100 went up 86.5%.  That was over a 22 week period, and the average rise per week was 3.93%.  That was a greed driven bubble that had a precipitous drop.  By the following March, the NASDAQ 100 had dropped from a peak of 4918 to 1573 ...  or 68%.

That was unquestionably a bubble.  Now compare the 3.93% weekly bubble rise we had to the Shanghai 11.5% weekly rise. Three weeks ago, a colleague said that Chinese shoe-shine boys were getting into the market.  Who's left to get in?  Soon, the shoe-shine boy will lose his shoes, and his shirt.  The effect this will have on Chinese consumers, loans in default, and banking problems will not be good.  

When the Shanghai tanks, it is unlikely that the world stock markets will keeping trucking along like nothing ever happened. It could very well be the precipitating event that ends this rally. At a rate of increase that would project out to 598% per year, it isn't a question of IF, but WHEN the Shanghai index will have a violent downside correction.

The Shanghai 180 chart is below:   (Charts and commentary also continues below.)

Let's look at the long term weekly view of the Shanghai 180 and compare it to our NASDAQ 100 bubble
we had.

The Chinese Shanghai Index looks like our old NASDAQ chart ... the only difference, is the speed at which it is happening on the Shanghai is faster.  

In case we forgot what happened to the NASDAQ 100 after our Internet bubble collapse, the NASDAQ 100'S full view to last Friday is posted below ...

China's stock market is no different than ours.  There is nothing special about China that exempts them from a fall when greed and exuberance gets out of control.  

The only question is when does it happen?   In 1929, our market zoomed up, had a pull back and went to a new high before crashing.  In 2000, we never made it to a new high ... we just kept going down over time.  Which pattern China will follow is unknown, but it is hard to imagine that a market that has been moving up 11.5% per week can sustain this pace for very long.

Please feel free to send this update to a friend, colleague, or family member.  I have posted a "Send this to a friend" link below.

Click HERE to go back to the main Shanghai Stock Market Overview page

hefeiddd

Investor tip for the week of April 7th...

Wednesday, April 9th. - The Secret of using the VIX (Volatility Index) for confirming changes in the Stock Market's direction.

Today we will look at the VIX, volatility levels, and the short term action on the S&P 500 index.
The VIX often gives good confirming clues about the market's direction, but it takes a keen ability in properly drawing support and resistance lines.  
As you will see in today' chart below, the market correlations are very good ... and worth the effort of tracking the VIX.
Since the VIX moves "opposite to the market", I INVERTED the VIX on this 60 minute chart so it would correlate with the movements on the S&P 500.
If you spend a minute just observing the chart, you will see why tracking the VIX is an important tool.
One of the typical "behaviors" exhibited on the VIX is what happens relative to gap up or gap down events.
Look at the chart, and observe that when a gap occurs on the VIX, it typically confirms the shift of direction on the  S&P 500.   Sometimes, the VIX gap occurs before the directional change on the S&P.  That happened at the end of December last year.  
Note that gap was never filled ... until 2 PM on Monday afternoon of this week.  The VIX then was not able to move past that point.  At the same time, the S&P reached and tested its 2008 resistance line ... and retreated upon testing it.
What to look for now ...
The Gap has been filled.  So now the big test is facing the VIX and the S&P 500 at the same time.
For a upside continuation of the market's movement, we will now want to see the S&P move ABOVE its resistance line, and for the VIX to move above its resistance line. Preferably, you want to see the VIX gap below a level of 21 for a confirmation.  (Don't forget that I inverted the VIX on this chart!)
(Not a paid subscriber yet?  If you find these kinds of unique analyses beneficial, why not consider become a one of our paid subscribers?)

___________________________________________________________________________

hefeiddd

Jan 14, 2009 3:29am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

EUR AUD EUR AUD D-H4-H1 Attached Thumbnails

#1187    Jan 14, 2009 9:40am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Blue bottle hi, agree with you. i think .884 was the end of wave 4, and we may look for 1 more wave UP.. wave 4 (1-2-3-4-5)!!!! corection made A-B-C

#1188    Jan 14, 2009 9:44am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

EUR GBP EUR GBP Attached Thumbnails

#1189    Jan 14, 2009 10:45am

pipeye Member Member Since Dec 2007 149 Posts

Cable Quote: Originally Posted by saeidhidari EUR GBP Hi Saeid, Do you have a count for the GBP/USD? Thanks

#1190    Jan 14, 2009 11:58am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by pipeye Hi Saeid, Do you have a count for the GBP/USD? Thanks No i dont have a count for the gbp usd

#1191    Jan 14, 2009 1:46pm

Slight Member Member Since May 2008   252 Posts

GBPUSD roughly. I am not too confident about it though, dunno what this 4 is going to do (stay within red lines or break out downwards into 5??)- could go up the next days to form a triangle- not good for trading imo. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ my trading-blog

hefeiddd

Jan 14, 2009 10:12pm

surFXwave Member Member Since Nov 2008 11 Posts

CABLE Wave probabilities My wave analysis on cable for reference and comment Disclaimaer : The analysis is NOT A TRADE CALL ... __________________ Avoid drawn, Don't surf agains the wave, Successfull Surfer always Surf with the wave, lets "SURF with Forex WAVE" Together Last edited by surFXwave, Jan 14, 2009 10:49pm

#1195    Jan 14, 2009 10:35pm

SunTrader Trade the reaction not the news! Member Since Mar 2006   4,413 Posts

You have 5 posts, better take that link out of your message or you might get a time-out i.e. temporary ban. Check the forum rules. Edit: only because someone else might have said something or been spotted. It doesn't bother me any. Last edited by SunTrader, Jan 14, 2009 11:37pm

#1196    Jan 14, 2009 11:34pm

SunTrader Trade the reaction not the news! Member Since Mar 2006   4,413 Posts

EU 4H chart: Attached Thumbnails

#1197    Jan 14, 2009 11:49pm

surFXwave Member Member Since Nov 2008 11 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by SunTrader You have 5 posts, better take that link out of your message or you might get a time-out i.e. temporary ban. Check the forum rules. Edit: only because someone else might have said something or been spotted. It doesn't bother me any. Thanks bro 4 the advice __________________ Avoid drawn, Don't surf agains the wave, Successfull Surfer always Surf with the wave, lets "SURF with Forex WAVE" Together

#1198    Jan 15, 2009 2:40am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

eur uad Attached Thumbnails

#1199    Jan 15, 2009 3:07am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

GBP JPY GBP JPY head& sholder end wave 3 start wave c:4 perhaps Attached Thumbnails

#1200    Jan 15, 2009 5:23am

lancelot41 Member Member Since Jan 2008   12 Posts

USD/CHF Hellooo traders, I am back on this forum after a long time to see how you guys are doing, I also attached the Usd/Chf pair. I am curretnly looking the Usd/Chf which wasn’t been able to break through 1.1300 resistance area, so the market came out with more complex wave iv correction. As you see bellow, we probably have the case of triangle structure ahead of some important releases. From technical view, we could have nice buy singal if the 1.1235 area gets broken through with targets on upside Fibo extension and projection levels. But patiently, firstly we need to find direction of the dollar; The Gold is currently trading up after touching the 800 dollars which is dollar negative at the moment; there is also similar situation on the Oil chart from $35.50. The European stocks are also trading up right now after 1.5% of losses in the opening hour. All in all, markets need to break these lows of the sessions before the Usd/Chf will be able to continue higher. The triangle wave count will be valid as long the wave c) lows will hold.. Grega H. __________________ Winners are those, who know how to survive the loss!!!

hefeiddd

Jan 15, 2009 9:00pm

pkimnyc Senior Member Member Since Oct 2007   2,918 Posts

geppy daily count. Attached Thumbnails

#1202    Jan 15, 2009 11:28pm

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by lancelot41 Hellooo traders, I am back on this forum after a long time to see how you guys are doing, I also attached the Usd/Chf pair. I am curretnly looking the Usd/Chf which wasn’t been able to break through 1.1300 resistance area, so the market came out with more complex wave iv correction. As you see bellow, we probably have the case of triangle structure ahead of some important releases. From technical view, we could have nice buy singal if the 1.1235 area gets broken through with targets on upside Fibo extension and projection levels. But patiently,... Great to see u in this thread. Thanks for posting. __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1203    Jan 16, 2009 12:47am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

hi all, my NzdUsd 4hours chart. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1204    Jan 16, 2009 6:16am

lancelot41 Member Member Since Jan 2008   12 Posts

USD-CHF Quote: Originally Posted by Blue bottle Great to see u in this thread. Thanks for posting. Hey blue bottle, thank you. I aslo enjoy to seeing your wave counts as well. I am attachnig another, the updated Usd/Chf chart. The triangle was definitely the case yesterday when we saw a move to new weekly highs, but not for long as the prices made a turning point exactly at 1.1300 resistance area, as we recently discussed. On almost every currency pair we could notice over-bought dollar in some important Fibo levels. Gold also bounced from $800 area, and still didn’t been able to break through the trend line support. Oil is currently also trading around $3 above the lows, while the European equities are 2% higher after the gains in the Asia trade. So, all these is definitely dollar negative which means we should be looking to sell dollars in today’s session as long the things will stay as they are right now. Well, the Usd/Chf chart below is signaling for the dollar corrective mode which means we may see CHF buyers in today’s session who will try to push the Usd/Chf pair down to 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave 1. Elliott wave traders could be looking for red wave c move, which will probably be confirmed once the lows of red wave a and the trend line will be taken out. grega __________________ Winners are those, who know how to survive the loss!!!

#1205    Jan 16, 2009 1:54pm

j-pax Member Member Since May 2008 36 Posts

first chart hello EWcounters, i am so new to elliott wave, just reading other people's charts is hard. i follow this thread daily, to see if i can make sense of different counts. i've read Frost and Prechters book. after this i did not put any labels on charts. i hoped the Glenn Neely book would provide some practical guidence.... there is so much guidence from Neely... too much for me yesterday the Robert C. Miner book disscused here arrived and today i counted my first piece of chart. this is it. if i am way off please let me know. i hope to post some decent charts in the near future greets, jacco Attached Thumbnails

#1206    Jan 16, 2009 3:27pm

lancelot41 Member Member Since Jan 2008   12 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by j-pax hello EWcounters, i am so new to elliott wave, just reading other people's charts is hard. i follow this thread daily, to see if i can make sense of different counts. i've read Frost and Prechters book. after this i did not put any labels on charts. i hoped the Glenn Neely book would provide some practical guidence.... there is so much guidence from Neely... too much for me yesterday the Robert C. Miner book disscused here arrived and today i counted my first piece of chart. this is it. if i am way off please let me know. i hope to post... Hey j-pax, wellcome here.... to be honest your charts its perfect, really good one!!! And what your charts tells you? that the five wave move is probably completed and this means only once; that at least three wave move of the correction should follow. And you already labelled your first wave of the retrace (blue wave a in your case) correctly, so, now we should be looking for a wave b pullback and then higher c, which would confirm simple zigzag correction move. Good job; Grega H. __________________ Winners are those, who know how to survive the loss!!!

hefeiddd

Jan 16, 2009 5:03pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by marketwavez Us Dollar Usd/Chf ---------------------------- Double Bottom Formation ? ---------------------------- Us Dollar ok , It's been a week - Here's where we are now ! ................ ---------------------------------------------------------------------

#1208    Jan 16, 2009 9:02pm

SunTrader Trade the reaction not the news! Member Since Mar 2006   4,413 Posts

[quote=marketwavez;2475035] Us Dollar ok , It's been a week - Here's where we are now ! ................ [/unquote] mw, A little smaller of the chart pic size please. Scrolling back and forth sucks. Anyway USDCHF is not a market I watch regularly but your Wave 4 ABC looks like the Wave C is not really a 5 wave.

#1209    Jan 17, 2009 3:07am

arthurb Austrian school Member Since Dec 2008   348 Posts

i see this usd/chf a little differently Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Gods of the market bless the ones who dare, btw, i am wrong 38.2 % of the times

#1210    Jan 17, 2009 5:09am

aaronlee1979 Member Member Since Dec 2008 17 Posts

EURUSD wave 5 - target 1.2850 Wave 4 almost complete. Wave 5 to target 1.2850 Attached Thumbnails

#1211    Jan 18, 2009 6:05am

j-pax Member Member Since May 2008 36 Posts

thanks for the kind words lancelot. a question: is it common for pairs with different base currencies to correct or trend at the same time? my usdjpy and eurusd charts turned from 5 to A almost at the same time. i am curious if this has some meaning or is just chance. Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 18, 2009 8:04pm

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

EURGBP Hourly Chart Im looking for the target of .9210 range. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1218    Jan 18, 2009 8:29pm

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

NzdUsd 4 Hours Chart.. Correction is in place.. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1219    Jan 19, 2009 9:20am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

GBP AUD GBP AUD UP TREND Attached Thumbnails

#1220    Jan 19, 2009 9:35am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

eur usd eur usd & index usd Attached Thumbnails

#1221    Jan 19, 2009 9:41am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

GBP USD M Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 19, 2009 9:53am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

AUD USD AUD USD UP TREND Attached Thumbnails

#1223    Jan 19, 2009 10:04am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

AUD USD Attached Thumbnails

#1224    Jan 19, 2009 2:37pm

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

eur usd Attached Thumbnails

#1225    Jan 19, 2009 3:24pm

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

EUR USD W Attached Thumbnails

#1226    Jan 19, 2009 8:45pm

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

hi all UsdChf hourly chart My reversed count.. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1227    Jan 20, 2009 1:04am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

My AusUsd chart.. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1228    Jan 20, 2009 3:55am

soso Evil Speculator Member Since Aug 2007   177 Posts

USDCAD, simple EW, a first impulse folowed by a zig-zag correction where a=c. Goodluck guys! Attached Thumbnails    __________________ -soso

#1229    Jan 20, 2009 3:58am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

EUR GBP Attached Thumbnails

#1230    Jan 20, 2009 4:01am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

GBP JPY GBP JPY Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 20, 2009 4:03am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

EUR USD EUR USD Attached Thumbnails

#1232    Jan 20, 2009 4:07am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

GBP AUD Attached Thumbnails

#1233    Jan 20, 2009 4:55am

lancelot41 Member Member Since Jan 2008   12 Posts

USD/CHF-updated As expected, we saw the three wave move of retrace at the end of the past week in blue wave ii, as we discussed in the previous USD/CHF post. So, in past few sessions we saw a move through this significant 1.1300 resistance area which was the key for move to current highs. In the last bullish channel we can already count a clear five wave move in red iii), which means the pullbacks in wave iv) could be the case. But patiently; we have some mixed dollar signals at the moment; the Oil is still trading lower which is pulling the euro down and the swissy higher. Meantime the equities and gold are going higher which is dollar negative. So, for a better dollar picture we should take a look on the $ Index chart where we are seeing 30 pips range at 15 minute chart. So, we will se reaction on the Usd/Chf chart when the dollar index will move. Break higher on $ Index will make higher Usd/Chf; move lower on $ Index could be the key for red wave iv) retrace on our Usd/Chf chart which is attached bellow. Take care. Grega H. __________________ Winners are those, who know how to survive the loss!!! Last edited by lancelot41, Jan 20, 2009 7:17am

#1234    Jan 20, 2009 10:25pm

SunTrader Trade the reaction not the news! Member Since Mar 2006   4,413 Posts

BKX US Banking index sliced through upper fib support and now at a make or break point on lower fibs. Will it hold?? If it don't kiss your butt goodbye. Attached Thumbnails

#1235    Jan 20, 2009 10:31pm

arthurb Austrian school Member Since Dec 2008   348 Posts

eg Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Gods of the market bless the ones who dare, btw, i am wrong 38.2 % of the times

#1236    Jan 21, 2009 2:55am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

EUR GBP Attached Thumbnails

#1237    Jan 21, 2009 3:25am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

UsdJpy Chart.. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

hefeiddd

Jan 21, 2009 9:54am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

eur gbp +gbp jpy eur gbp +gbp Attached Thumbnails

#1242    Jan 21, 2009 3:35pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Gbp/Usd I see you ........... I see you ! ........... ------------------------------------------------------

#1243    Jan 22, 2009 2:22am

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

GBP JPY GBP JPY END WAVE C Up trend Attached Thumbnails

#1244    Jan 22, 2009 2:34am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

hi all, my cable chart.. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1245    Jan 22, 2009 3:10am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

hi all, my usdjpy chart. Its was 13 years low at 87.10. any feedback? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

hefeiddd

Jan 22, 2009 5:24am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

GbpUsd Chart. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1249    Jan 22, 2009 5:27am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by marketwavez Gbp/Usd I see you ........... I see you ! ........... ------------------------------------------------------ Hi Marketwavez, Good charts, thanks for post it here. Can you pls give your opinion on cable daily chart.. Thanks. __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1250    Jan 22, 2009 6:00am

pipeye Member Member Since Dec 2007 149 Posts

Cable - Daily Quote: Originally Posted by Blue bottle GbpUsd Chart. Hey Blue, Here is my look at the Daily chart. I am looking at the 1.4200 area for a wave 4 retrace. I think the potential for a truncated 5th wave is very strong, as the yellow line is the low from 1982 and 2001. We may take it out eventually, but I see a substantial rally off of that area first. Attached Thumbnails

#1251    Jan 22, 2009 11:16am

ninohoang Member Member Since Jun 2008 30 Posts

My wave counts on gbpjpy weekly and daily chart. Do they look alright? Please feed back. Thanks Attached Thumbnails

#1252    Jan 22, 2009 11:18am

FlaGordon Member Member Since Oct 2008 6 Posts

eurchf I thing risk reward is good here Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 22, 2009 5:24am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

GbpUsd Chart. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1249    Jan 22, 2009 5:27am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by marketwavez Gbp/Usd I see you ........... I see you ! ........... ------------------------------------------------------ Hi Marketwavez, Good charts, thanks for post it here. Can you pls give your opinion on cable daily chart.. Thanks. __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1250    Jan 22, 2009 6:00am

pipeye Member Member Since Dec 2007 149 Posts

Cable - Daily Quote: Originally Posted by Blue bottle GbpUsd Chart. Hey Blue, Here is my look at the Daily chart. I am looking at the 1.4200 area for a wave 4 retrace. I think the potential for a truncated 5th wave is very strong, as the yellow line is the low from 1982 and 2001. We may take it out eventually, but I see a substantial rally off of that area first. Attached Thumbnails

#1251    Jan 22, 2009 11:16am

ninohoang Member Member Since Jun 2008 30 Posts

My wave counts on gbpjpy weekly and daily chart. Do they look alright? Please feed back. Thanks Attached Thumbnails

#1252    Jan 22, 2009 11:18am

FlaGordon Member Member Since Oct 2008 6 Posts

eurchf I thing risk reward is good here Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 22, 2009 11:30am

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Blue bottle Hi Marketwavez, Good charts, thanks for post it here. Can you pls give your opinion on cable daily chart.. Thanks. When will the British Pound join the Euro in its efforts to unify Euorpe's currency ? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Why is the Euro called the Euro without the Brittish Pound being a part of it ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The answer to these questions is my opinion //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Last edited by marketwavez, Jan 22, 2009 1:10pm

#1254    Jan 22, 2009 1:06pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Gbp/Usd ------------------------------------------ Hello, Blue Bottle this is the Intermediate Term Gbp/Usd wave-count that's the closest to me these days ....... --------------------------------------------- Will update shortly ....... Stay Tuned --------------------------------------------- Last edited by marketwavez, Jan 22, 2009 2:48pm

#1255    Jan 22, 2009 3:39pm

saeidhidari Eliot wave trader Member Since Aug 2008   125 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by ninohoang My wave counts on gbpjpy weekly and daily chart. Do they look alright? Please feed back. Thanks wave 1: made in 5 small wave ?

#1256    Jan 22, 2009 3:44pm

j-pax Member Member Since May 2008 36 Posts

usdjpy daily hello, i am practicing Robert C. Miners way of charting. i saw that Suntrader uses ideas of Miner. i hope to get some feedback on my chart.. it looks ok to me (a beginner) Attached Thumbnails

#1257    Jan 22, 2009 4:00pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by j-pax hello, i am practicing Robert C. Miners way of charting. i saw that Suntrader uses ideas of Miner. i hope to get some feedback on my chart.. it looks ok to me (a beginner) Robert Miner is using and teaching people about Elliott Waves just like Pretcher or Neely ............ Robert Miner , is good place to start and good place to learn ..... -------------------------------------------------------------------- Just keep posting your charts , so you can come back and review them as time goes by In Time , reviewing your own charts will become your best teacher .... -----------------------------------------------------------------

#1258    Jan 22, 2009 4:03pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Gbp/Usd ---------------------- A work in Progress --- -------------------------- Attached Thumbnails

#1259    Jan 22, 2009 11:14pm

ninohoang Member Member Since Jun 2008 30 Posts

My wave count on USDCHF weekly chart. Does it look alright? I don't feel quite confident about it though. Please feed back. Thanks Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 23, 2009 3:47am

Slight Member Member Since May 2008   252 Posts

USDCHF: looking at the end of a wave 4 on the daily/4h TF .. end of inside w5 on the 30 minute - should see a nice turning signal today. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ my trading-blog

#1262    Jan 23, 2009 3:58am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by ninohoang My wave count on USDCHF weekly chart. Does it look alright? I don't feel quite confident about it though. Please feed back. Thanks Its good chart . But i m looking for triangle wave B. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1263    Jan 23, 2009 4:05am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

Looking for bottom to go LONG> Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1264    Jan 23, 2009 4:07am

fry2010 Senior Member Member Since Mar 2008 776 Posts

Where do u see GBPUSD going short term?

#1265    Jan 23, 2009 4:10am

arthurb Austrian school Member Since Dec 2008   348 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by SunTrader Don't know about Neely's style but Miner is not like Prechter much, which is why I follow Miner and not Prechter. imho Neely gives the best explanations for almost every scenario possible, but this is just my opinion of course __________________ Gods of the market bless the ones who dare, btw, i am wrong 38.2 % of the times

#1266    Jan 23, 2009 6:00am

j-pax Member Member Since May 2008 36 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by arthurb imho Neely gives the best explanations for almost every scenario possible, but this is just my opinion of course i get confused by the complex corrections teached by prechter. you can imagine how i feel about neely. i realy respect everyone who can understand and practicaly use the methods above. for me the Miner book does not give an explanation for every scenario but looks for scenarios wich can be practicaly used. Last edited by j-pax, Jan 23, 2009 6:33am Reason: wrong spelling

#1267    Jan 23, 2009 6:22am

toshi Say what ? Member Since Aug 2007   510 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by marketwavez Gbp/Usd ---------------------- A work in Progress --- -------------------------- Looks like that "B" wave broke into an ABC of its own (down to 135). Could we have just completed a 5th of a W3 instead ? since the 1/16/09 high at 14980~ to 13502 measures 1.618 of the distance from the the Jan 8th high at 15374 to the 1/13/09 low at 14467 hmmm ?? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ The way i see it, the glass is still just a little bit empty

hefeiddd

Jan 23, 2009 12:20pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by toshi Looks like that "B" wave broke into an ABC of its own (down to 135). Could we have just completed a 5th of a W3 instead ? since the 1/16/09 high at 14980~ to 13502 measures 1.618 of the distance from the the Jan 8th high at 15374 to the 1/13/09 low at 14467 hmmm ?? Gbp/Usd Chart Update : End of Wave B low did not hold as support .............. ------------------------------------------------------------- Attached Thumbnails

#1269    Jan 23, 2009 12:28pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Us Dollar Usd/Chf Welcome to the " Obama Rally " ! Price-Action has been steadily rising from just before the Inauguration ..... ---------------------------------------- 2nd target....... has been reached ....... ---------------------------------------- Elliott Waves Formations at Work ---------------------------------------- Attached Thumbnails

#1270    Jan 23, 2009 12:31pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Usd/Yen Today's short term wave-count ..... ---------------------------------- Attached Thumbnails

#1271    Jan 24, 2009 6:41am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

UsdCad 4 hours chart. Possibility for triangle. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1272    Jan 24, 2009 7:17am

Slight Member Member Since May 2008   252 Posts

hey bluebottle, I like your chart, also the one on USDCHF. Question - how do you come to conclude on the wave 4 structure? I can see how you figured the one on the USDCHF, but on the chart above I dunno why you would think what you draw in the chart?! pls explain. __________________ my trading-blog

#1273    Jan 24, 2009 10:29am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Slight hey bluebottle, I like your chart, also the one on USDCHF. Question - how do you come to conclude on the wave 4 structure? I can see how you figured the one on the USDCHF, but on the chart above I dunno why you would think what you draw in the chart?! pls explain. When pair starts corrective waves, i will draw all possible corrective patterns like - Zigzag - Flat - Contracting & Expanding triangles Then once get some movement confirmations & directions, i will choose one of the above type. Sometime long term view also help me to choose correction types.. __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1274    Jan 24, 2009 12:20pm

j-pax Member Member Since May 2008 36 Posts

time retracements today i made some charts with time-projections and i am suprised that the simple corrections i counted did end in the 38.2 and 61.8 % range as they should. i used time extentions since my software (amibroker) does not have time-retracements. also when i use alternate projections my chart becomes a great mess. i am checking out robert miner's method but not every thing he teaches is possible if you do not buy his expensive dynamic trader software. Attached Thumbnails

#1275    Jan 24, 2009 12:39pm

j-pax Member Member Since May 2008 36 Posts

correction in progress usdjpy wich has not completed the correction. i will keep a close eye on this one.... i would never trade these time projections but i think it could be another clue off what's going on Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 24, 2009 1:27pm

ninohoang Member Member Since Jun 2008 30 Posts

EURUSD EURUSD h4 chart. Would like to have your comments. thanks Attached Thumbnails

#1277    Jan 24, 2009 1:32pm

ninohoang Member Member Since Jun 2008 30 Posts

USDCAD USDCAD daily chart. Pls feedback. Thanks! Attached Thumbnails

#1278    Jan 25, 2009 12:00am

ninohoang Member Member Since Jun 2008 30 Posts

GBPUSD GBPUSD daily, 4-hour, 1-hour chart. would like to have your comments, EW experts. Thanks Attached Thumbnails

#1279    Jan 25, 2009 2:48am

ninohoang Member Member Since Jun 2008 30 Posts

GBPJPY GBPJPY weekly, daily and 4-hour chart. I am not sure whether W3 down is complete yet? But according to my counts. we at least have temporary bottom, which can bring this pair at least to around 127? Pls feel free to comment. Thanks Attached Thumbnails

Jan 25, 2009 11:56am

toshi Say what ? Member Since Aug 2007   510 Posts

EUR/JPY Thoughts on this count ? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ The way i see it, the glass is still just a little bit empty

#1288    Jan 25, 2009 12:27pm

toshi Say what ? Member Since Aug 2007   510 Posts

Just a correction ? You know, if the whole thing turned out to be just one BIG correction, It could be shaping up like this: Attached Thumbnails    __________________ The way i see it, the glass is still just a little bit empty

hefeiddd

Jan 25, 2009 10:22pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by marketwavez Usd/Yen Today's short term wave-count ..... ---------------------------------- Usd/Yen Chart Update from last Friday's post 2nd Target achieved ........ --------------------------------------------- Attached Thumbnails

#1292    Jan 25, 2009 10:23pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Usd Yen Here's look at what may be occurring going into Mondays' US Session... ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Attached Thumbnails    Last edited by marketwavez, Jan 26, 2009 5:54pm

#1293    Jan 27, 2009 6:28am

shahidzadeh Member Member Since Jan 2009 2 Posts

EURAUD This week is important time. Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 27, 2009 10:34am

Blue bottle Senior Member Member Since Nov 2007   594 Posts

Hi All, Cable has finally finished its subwave C up 1.4240, making the end of wave 4 up too Attached Thumbnails    __________________ Elliott Wave Analysis - http://5waves.blogspot.com

#1295    Jan 27, 2009 11:14am

Slight Member Member Since May 2008   252 Posts

Hm not too sure about that BB. I think it could go up again before w4 is finished. Wave C should consist of 5 waves, so far we only got 4... Attached Thumbnails    __________________ my trading-blog

#1296    Jan 27, 2009 7:08pm

pipeye Member Member Since Dec 2007 149 Posts

Euro Looking for a possible truncated 5th. The inverted Head and Shoulders projection is @ approx. 1.3320. Attached Thumbnails

#1297    Jan 28, 2009 12:20am

pkimnyc Senior Member Member Since Oct 2007   2,918 Posts

geppy chart. Attached Thumbnails

#1298    Jan 28, 2009 1:12am

Slight Member Member Since May 2008   252 Posts

GBPUSD 15min ends w5 from yesterday (see my last post) .. should be in for a drop today. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ my trading-blog

hefeiddd

Jan 28, 2009 5:18am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

EURO USD Hi everyone, I like to participate with my veiws even though i am not sure about them (lol) I think we just finished the wave one and ready to come down for the 2nd. Correct me if i am wrong. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ SAM

#1308    Jan 28, 2009 5:56am

200ema Member Member Since Sep 2007 38 Posts

Hi Sam, I haven't been trading the EUR/USD for quite some time now, so I don't have a good grasp of where it is with regard to Elliott Wave; however, the EURO and the Pound usually trend together, and given that the GBP/USD is getting set to drop it would follow that the EUR/USD is getting ready to do the same. Sorry I can't say much more than that at this time.

#1309    Jan 28, 2009 6:00am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

Cable here is what i think about the cable. Please do comments and corrections. It will help me a lot Attached Thumbnails    __________________ SAM

#1310    Jan 28, 2009 6:08am

200ema Member Member Since Sep 2007 38 Posts

You got it. We've just finished Wave IV up within wave V of 3. We can start to look toward a new low below 1.3500. (That is, unless the market proves me wrong). Good work. Elliott Wave takes some doing at first, and no one gets it correct all the time. You are consently dealing with variable and different possible wave counts, so you have to let the market prove you right or wrong (which is where your stoploss settings come in). Personally, I keep an ongoing count of the GBP/USD on my office wall with both a daily chart and a 4 hour chart. It helps me track the lower time frames and stay on the correct side of the market.

#1311    Jan 28, 2009 6:08am

ninohoang Member Member Since Jun 2008 30 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by samdani786 Hi everyone, I like to participate with my veiws even though i am not sure about them (lol) I think we just finished the wave one and ready to come down for the 2nd. Correct me if i am wrong. Hi there, The current up move is W5 (may or may not have failure) of 3 or C. Some people thing the entire up move is impulsive. If that is the case then, we would see a correction then the price rallies again. I personally think that the entire up move is corrective W4. If I am correct, then we would see the big down move following that current W5 up. Either the case, we should see at least the pull back when the current W5:C or W5:3 is over.Maybe a good short trade there. Cheers

#1312    Jan 28, 2009 6:12am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by 200ema Got stopped out (obviously). If my count is correct, we've just put in the top of wave 3 at 1.4228, so we should now see a 4th wave down and a final 5th to a new high...with stong resistence at 1.4349 (bottom of wave 1 of the same degree). I hope I'm helping someone out there. If not, just ignore the man behind the curtain Dorthy..... Hi there, Can you kindly put ur chart to see more clearly. I am also ready to short but waiting for candles comfirmation __________________ SAM

#1313    Jan 28, 2009 6:15am

200ema Member Member Since Sep 2007 38 Posts

It will be easy to tell if we have completed wave C of 4 or if we have completed wave 3 of 5. All that needs to happen to prove the wave C of 4 count wrong is for the market to move above 1.4349. If the GBP/USD moves above this level of resistence, we are most likely in wave 3 of 5....or if the market pulls back and then moves above the 1.4349 level we would them be in wave 5 of 5 of A. If we have just completed wave 3 of 5, we can still expect a pullback to move down into the 1.4030 area, before it moves higher.

#1314    Jan 28, 2009 6:19am

200ema Member Member Since Sep 2007 38 Posts

Hi Sam, As you can tell my the total number of posts I've made (very few) I don't tend to post much or often. That said, I honestly don't even know how to post my charts. Also, I'm a little "old school" and tend to only write my Elliott wave count on hard copy charts, not the charts that are on my PC. Sorry....

#1315    Jan 28, 2009 6:28am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by 200ema Hi Sam, As you can tell my the total number of posts I've made (very few) I don't tend to post much or often. That said, I honestly don't even know how to post my charts. Also, I'm a little "old school" and tend to only write my Elliott wave count on hard copy charts, not the charts that are on my PC. Sorry.... oh ok . Another thing, Do you have counts for CAD also. Let me post my chart to get ur comments on that . I think it is setting up for a big move up Thanks. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ SAM

hefeiddd

Jan 28, 2009 8:44am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

is this the one Attached Thumbnails    __________________ SAM

#1338    Jan 28, 2009 8:45am

200ema Member Member Since Sep 2007 38 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by samdani786 divergence on which TF ? 5 minute, 15 minute, and 1 hour currently...but the Head N' Shoulders formation is on the 5 minute chart. You can see it on the 15 minute chart too, but it's not as clear. That said, I'm not seeing any resonable momentum behind a bearish move right now...Which gives me pause.... I think we're looking for a new high right now...not a break of the Head N' Shoulders formation.

#1339    Jan 28, 2009 8:50am

200ema Member Member Since Sep 2007 38 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by 200ema 5 minute, 15 minute, and 1 hour currently...but the Head N' Shoulders formation is on the 5 minute chart. You can see it on the 15 minute chart too, but it's not as clear. That said, I'm not seeing any resonable momentum behind a bearish move right now...Which gives me pause.... I think we're looking for a new high right now...not a break of the Head N' Shoulders formation. ...but, I could be wrong. When the market is moving this slow it's more difficult to tell which direction has more momentum to it.

#1340    Jan 28, 2009 8:52am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by 200ema ...but, I could be wrong. When the market is moving this slow it's more difficult to tell which direction has more momentum to it. do you consider pivot points at all for entries cause it is above the R1 right now. What you think if we wait to see she comes down below R1 which is 142.70 to get in ? __________________ SAM

#1341    Jan 28, 2009 8:56am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

it is now very close to the trend line anyway and if it touches it and rebouned, i am gonna get in anyway __________________ SAM

#1342    Jan 28, 2009 9:02am

200ema Member Member Since Sep 2007 38 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by samdani786 do you consider pivot points at all for entries cause it is above the R1 right now. What you think if we wait to see she comes down below R1 which is 142.70 to get in ? I also use pivot points; however, you never want to take a trade because of one indicator, price measurement, or anything else. You should always have at LEAST 3 different reasons for taking a trade..and also have your stoploss set to the "I'm wrong if price gets to this" point. For example: I'm always watching 6 different time frames, Daily, weekly, and monthly pivots, fibonacci levels, Elliott wave counts, MACD on all time frames, and my momentum indicators. I need to see several of these tell me the same thing before I will pull the trigger and take a trade. Here comes our new high.....

#1343    Jan 28, 2009 9:07am

200ema Member Member Since Sep 2007 38 Posts

We should start seeing some pretty strong resistence at above 1.4342.

#1344    Jan 28, 2009 9:11am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

am I on the right track ? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ SAM

#1345    Jan 28, 2009 9:15am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

she is bouncing off the DTL right now . Lets see if comes down or break it . I think she will come down now I hope __________________ SAM

#1346    Jan 28, 2009 9:19am

samdani786 Member Member Since Feb 2008 95 Posts

i missed the PO entry by few pips at 143.80 __________________ SAM

#1347    Jan 28, 2009 9:19am

200ema Member Member Since Sep 2007 38 Posts

..and that should be our high at 1.4374. It will be confirmed when price action breaks below 1.4286.

#1348    Jan 28, 2009 9:20am

pipeye Member Member Since Dec 2007 149 Posts

Cable Hey Guys, This is the count that I am working with for Cable. I treated wave (iv) of 3 as and expanding triangle. This leaves my wave 1 of (v) of 3 low at 1.4469 as the cut off for a continuation in wave 5 of (v) of 3 down. Attached Thumbnails

Jan 28, 2009 9:34am

pipeye Member Member Since Dec 2007 149 Posts

Dollar Index Hey Guys, Here is a look at the Dollar Index 4 hour chart. It looks like we completed wave B of a large ABC off the wave 5 high, and I believe we just completed Wave 1 of C, right at the 38.2%. It is for this reason that I believe we should form some sort of truncation with the Euro/Pound/etc, as wave 2 of C should retrace almost completely. Given that evidence, plus the fact that a 2 decade old low resides in the 1.3500 area, we should truncate before then to complete a wave 5 of (v) of 3. Then we should be in for some serious dollar weakness. Attached Thumbnails