一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

Would like to begin with my view on the EURUSD Daily chart.

To me; it appears that euro rallied in 5th waves from 1.3360. The most recent surge was a breakout from a triangle (unsurprisingly the triangle was wave 4 seen as corrective before a rally)

The triangle is a-b-c-d-e a thrust then appeared that broke out in the triangle signalling that we are now in wave 5 of the euro rally.

The chart is posted because eur/usd could be "real" close to a top.
Wave 1 was 918 pips, and wave 3 was 952 pips. It is very possible that wave 5 can be like wave 1 or extended.

Either way, the Euro/USD is very close to a top in the zone 1.5360-1.5440

So bottom line I expect a big reversal in eur/usd to follow soon that could challenge 1.49/1.45
Chart attached
Attached Thumbnails

#3

Mar 5, 2008 2:19pm

CounterTrend
English is not my NaTiVe

Member Since Feb 2008

247 Posts

Next..

EURJPY Hourly

The decline from 161.30 can be perfectly viewed as five waves decline.

The fifth wave was truncated though, if you notice prices bottomed at 155.9/156.1 very close lows after wave 5 failed to make new lows below 155.94.

The EURJPY then rallied as a correction took place after five waves down.
Note that the decline was in 5 waves previously which is very bearish for this bear in the medium term.

The correction almost reached significant top at 159.25, and 61.8 fib. The potential reversal zone is 159.20/159.50

I entered short there with stoploss above 161.30 (medium term)
A new bear leg should begin soon and should accelerate in five waves.
Attached Thumbnails

#4

Mar 5, 2008 2:26pm

CounterTrend
English is not my NaTiVe

Member Since Feb 2008

247 Posts

Since we've discussed EURJPY, similarly USDJPY also failed to register a new low in a fifth wave when it made a "double-bottom" on the hourlies.

However, the rebound is seen corrective. And since usdjpy has declined in five waves, this means that the outlook for USDJPY is bearish "Sell Rallies"

A potential correction end zone is 104.70, overall it remains bearish and a sell in the 104.30-70 zone is preferred.

Very similar to EURJPY.
Attached Thumbnails

#5

Mar 5, 2008 4:19pm

CounterTrend
English is not my NaTiVe

Member Since Feb 2008

247 Posts

Aussie Rally May Not Be Over
According to this count, aussie rally still has room to maximum 0.9900 before a big reversal starts.

Potential reversal zone is 0.9800 to 0.9900.

wave 1 and 3 are almost equal. So if wave 4 ended at 0.9217 ? no confirmation yet. Then 600 pips least from there would equal 0.9800. But if wave 5 is larger than wave 1 and 3 (wave 3 still not shortest wave) it can expand more than 98 cents.

bottom line: aussie may stop and reverse at 0.9800 and this level extends to 1.0 usd. A very strong reversal is then expected in that area.

Let us see how audusd will play out.
Attached Thumbnails

#6

Mar 5, 2008 9:17pm

bohebolo
Pattern Trader

Member Since Oct 2005

33 Posts

GBPJPY?
Can you post your analysis on GBPJPY?
thanks.

#7

Mar 5, 2008 11:52pm

CounterTrend
English is not my NaTiVe

Member Since Feb 2008

247 Posts

Euro rally is not over
'I still do not see clear counts on GBPJPY

The euro rally is not over yet but we are close.

I posted the daily count which suggests a reversal in the zone mid-1.53 to mid 1.54

This is the hourly chart it. We are in a wave 5 advance now. Basically this is the last leg in eur/usd rally.

Wave 5 started from 1.5144 and its about 160 pips until now. I suspect it can extend little more.

But we are close to an end to this rally. Perfectly at 1.54 zone though.
Attached Thumbnails

#8

Mar 6, 2008 4:35am

CounterTrend
English is not my NaTiVe

Member Since Feb 2008

247 Posts

Update:

EURUSD leg accelerating now, and we are entering a potential reversal zone. Although, a high in the 1.54 can't be ruled out. Despite this, positional traders should enter shorts with adding up until 1.54. First target comes in at 1.49.

USDJPY is consolidating corrective wave gains, it is possible that the correction topped out at 104.20 however, a spike to 104.70 a more important fibonacci can't be ruled out. Strategy is to take shorts in the pair in the 104 area and first target comes at 102.

EURJPY found resistance at the hourly top and fibonacci resistance in a potential reversal zone (159.00-159.50). The pair should accelerate in its wave 3 of 3 soon, a retest of 159.30 is not out of the question but (I initiated shorts) at the 159 targeting a move to 154/152.

Those are the current updates to the patterns posted. Will keep you updated always.

EURUSD Direction: Bullish - Toppish - Reversal expected in 1.54 zone or slightly lower
USDJPY Direction: Bearish - Corrective bounce underway could meet 104.70 fib
EURJPY Direction: Bearish - Corrective bounce underway 159.50 is potential reversal area.

More next..

#9

Mar 6, 2008 1:45pm

s3padrian
Member

Member Since Apr 2007

373 Posts

Here you go, to help you

Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 17:16

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 17:30

Wave Analysis
http://www.alpari-forex.com/en/ew/

Daily Wave Analysis Monthly Wave Analysis Annual Analysis

Columnist
Dmitry Voznuy

Daily February 27, 2009: Words of gratitude February 26, 2009: Daily Wave Analysis February 26, 2009 February 25, 2009: The area of special attention – USD/JPY (Daily Wave Analysis February 25, 2009) February 24, 2009: Daily Wave Analysis February 24, 2009 February 23, 2009: Daily Wave Analysis February 23, 2009
Monthly February 2009: Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 February 2009: EUR/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 February 2009: GBP/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 February 2009: USD/JPY Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 February 2009: USD/CHF Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009	Annual 2009: Introduction (Annual WA, 2009) 2009: EUR/USD, Annual Wave Analysis 2009 2009: GBP/USD, Annual Wave Analysis 2009 2009: USD/JPY, Annual Wave Analysis 2009 2009: USD/CHF, Annual Wave Analysis 2009

Theory and Practice of Wave Analysis

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:24

With this forecast I’m completing my five year cycle of publications on the theory and practice of wave analysis on the website of the Company Group Alpari. At parting I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the Founders: PETROV Gleb — the founder of the company and the first President of Alpari, DASHIN Andrey — the President of Alpari, and, especially to, VEDIKHIN Andrey — the Vice-President of Alpari for their support in creating the Wave Analysis column, in publishing the book «Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of FOREX» and the brochure «Brief course on Elliott Wave Principle». Best regards, Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com Introduction The wave counting of the European currencies almost hasn’t changed— the confrontation of two most probable scenarios continues. The pair USD/JPY is now facing a choice – either to continue the trend that has begun or to keep developing the upward extension. 1. EUR/USD



The price continues to fluctuate between the critical and the confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. On some grounds at the moment the second scenario prevails (Figure 2). 2. GBP/USD

Wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be completed in the form of a flat. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction. The nearest critical level in this case may be the ending of wave (ii). 3. USD/JPY





The price has reached the projected area and approached its upper border (refer to Daily-25.02.09), having completed the development of wave v of (c) of [v] and having market the downward trend reversal. It still has two most probable scenarios: to continue the downtrend or to keep developing wave v of (c) of [v] in the form of an upward extension [1]-[2]-[3]-[4]-[5]. But taking into consideration the completeness of impulse (c) of [v] with the main waves and their correct mutual proportions and also approximate equality of the legs of zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of [v], scenario with a reversal and the beginning of downtrend seems to me more probable at the moment. At the same time the alternate with an extension in wave v of (c) of [v] still remains. I think that critical and confirmatory levels for each of scenarios plotted on the charts will help to make the right choice of one of the variant in due time. 4. USD/CHF



The price continues to move between the critical and the confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. On some grounds at the moment the second scenario prevails (Figure 8). Note Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction. Reference Introduction (Annual WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual 2009 GBP/USD Annual 2009 USD/JPY Annual 2009 USD/CHF Annual 2009 The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 Wave Analysis Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com February 27, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 11:13 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:30

EUR/USD, Annual Wave Analysis 2009

It is difficult to consider global countings of the euro as it was introduced only in 1998 . The synthesized charts of the earlier period, unfortunately aren’t univocal. That’s why it is logically to accept the most probable from my point of view mirror pattern of CHF - the global triple zigzag (refer to Annual-09)as a global pattern on the monthly time-frame, as the euro often repeats mirror-likely the movements of its twin-brother. In this case all considerations about possible global scenarios of CHF can be referred in full to the euro.
Figure E1.Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dz.
That’s why it is logically to suppose that the ending wave z of the global triple zigzag may assume the shape of a double/triple zigzag while in the nearest future corrective wave[X] of z. will be developing. For the possible scenarios of the development of wave [X] of z refer to the following three Figures.
Figure E2.Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-1.

Figure E3.Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-2.

Figure E4.Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-3.
As the wave structure of this correction develops the number of its possible variants will be decreasing that will allow to make global scenarios more precise and to project possible targets in the monthly forecasts during the current year . References Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 ) GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009 Wave Analysis Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 18, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 11:14 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:33

Daily Wave Analysis February 26, 2009

The wave counting of the European currencies almost hasn’t changed — the confrontation of two most probable scenarios continues. While the pair USD/JPY А is now facing a choice – either to continue upward extension or to reverse down at once. 1. EUR/USD
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.
The price continues to fluctuate between the critical and confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. On some grounds at the moment the second scenario prevails (Figure 2). 2. GBP/USD
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be completed in the form of a flat. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction. The nearest critical level in this case may be the ending of wave (ii). 3. USD/JPY
Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dt.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt, extension.
The price has reached the lower border of the projected area (refer to Daily-25.02.09), having almost completed to build wave v of (c) of [v]. And now it has only two most probable scenarios: either to reverse down at once or to continue developing wave v of (c) of [v] in the form of upward extension [1]-[2]-[3]-[4]-[5]. Taking into consideration vigor with which the price rushes up the second variant seems to be preferable. In the first case the critical level will be the ending of wave v of (c) of [v], the confirmatory level will be the ending of wave iv of (c) of [v]. In the second case, vice versa the critical level will be the ending of wave iv of (c) of [v], and the confirmatory level will be the ending of wave [1] of v of (c) of [v] (but only after wave [2] of v of (c) of [v]!) is developed. 4. USD/CHF
Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.
The price continues to move between the critical and the confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. On some grounds at the moment the second scenario is preferred (Figure 9). Note Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction. Reference Introduction (Annual WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual 2009 GBP/USD Annual 2009 USD/JPY Annual 2009 USD/CHF Annual 2009 The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 Wave Analysis Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com February 26, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 11:16 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:34

The area of special attention – USD/JPY (Daily Wave Analysis February 25, 2009)

The wave counting of the European currencies almost hasn’t changed – the confrontation of two most probable scenarios continues. But the yen started to lose grounds, having marked new borders. 1. EUR/USD
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.
The price is fluctuating between the critical and confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. 2. GBP/USD
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be assuming the shape of a flat with a diagonal triangle as the ending wave (or a double three). If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii). 3. USD/JPY
Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dt.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.
The yen managed to overcome the 95, level that corresponds to the top of the supposed wave A of (B), and now up to the 100 mark, there is a stockade of resistance level before it — 97, 98, 99 and 100, on each of which it may complete its surge. As the supposed wave (c) of [v] of C of (B), having broken the 95, level started to develop an upward extension we can’t speak of an immediate downward trend reversal — extension must be fully completed with waves. If the correlation of waves of the supposed impulse (c) of [v] of C of (B) preserves its ending should be expected in the area of the 98..99 marks. 4. USD/CHF
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.
The price fluctuates between the critical and confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. Note Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction. Reference Introduction (Annual WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual 2009 GBP/USD Annual 2009 USD/JPY Annual 2009 USD/CHF Annual 2009 The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 Wave Analysis Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com February 25, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 11:18 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:34

Daily Wave Analysis February 24, 2009

Yesterday’s strengthening of the US dollar added intrigue to the confrontation of two most probable scenarios. There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the variants. 1. EUR/USD
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.
Critical and confirmatory levels for both variants have been marked but the price may fluctuate between them for a long time giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. 2. GBP/USD
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z may be assuming the shape of a flat (or a double three). If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii). 3. USD/JPY
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.
Yesterday the price broke the critical level having redrawn the top of the supposed wave C of (B). But this only increases chances of downward reversal of the price in the near term. A pair of possible scenarios is shown in the Figures above. 4. USD/CHF
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.
Critical and confirmatory levels for both variants have been marked but the price may fluctuate between them for a long time giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. Note Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction. Reference Introduction (Annual WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual 2009 GBP/USD Annual 2009 USD/JPY Annual 2009 USD/CHF Annual 2009 The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 Wave Analysis Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com February 24, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 07:52 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:35

Daily Wave Analysis February 23, 2009

Wave counting doesn’t rule out that the reversal of the local trend has already taken place. However the alternate scenario isn’t cancelled yet and has the right to exist. There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the variants. 1. EUR/USD
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.
The expected upward trend reversal has taken place. But it isn’t clear how deep the new trend will continue its movement. A pair of possible scenarios is shown in the Figures above. 2. GBP/USD
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be assuming the shape of flat or a double three. If the supposition is true progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii). 3. USD/JPY
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.
The expected downward trend reversal has taken place. However so far it isn’t clear how deep the new trend will continue its movement. A pair of possible scenarios are shown in the Figures. 4. USD/CHF
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.
The expected downward trend reversal has taken place. But so far it isn’t clear how deep the new trend will continue its movement. A pair of possible scenarios are shown in the Figures. Note Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction. Reference Introduction (Annual WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual 2009 GBP/USD Annual 2009 USD/JPY Annual 2009 USD/CHF Annual 2009 The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009 Wave Analysis Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com February 23, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 07:54 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:37

EUR/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009

The current variant of the wave counting For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-09.
Figure E1. Immediate continuation of the US dollar's strengthening.

Figure E2. Completion of a large correction against the USD.
Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new downward zigzag structure is developing. The choice of one of equally probable variants will be determined by the depth of upward correction which the price will prefer. For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports. References Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009 Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 Wave Analysis Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 31, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

Supposedly the process of strengthening of the US dollar against the European currencies and the Japanese yen against the USD that has been lasting for several months, hasn’t completed yet. At the same time at the moment there are two most probable scenarios which are considered in this forecast:
Introduction
Supposedly the process of strengthening of the US dollar against the European currencies and the Japanese yen against the USD that has been lasting for several months, hasn’t completed yet. At the same time at the moment есть there are two most probable scenarios:

immediate continuation of strengthening of the dollar and yen;
the completion of a large correction directed against the dollar and yen and only after that their further strengthening.

Each of these scenarios is considered in the corresponding sections of this forecast.
References

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com

January 31, 2009

When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 07:55 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:38

GBP/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009..

The current variant of the wave counting For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-09.
Figure G1. Immediate continuation of the US dollar's strengthening.

Figure G2. Completion of a large correction against the USD.
Supposedly in the framework of scenario 1 a downward zigzag structure is developing. The choice of one of the equally probable variants will be determined by the location of the ending point of upward wave [e], which the price will prefer. For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports. References Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009 Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 Wave Analysis Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 31, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

USD/JPY Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009

The current variant of the wave counting For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-09.
Figure Y1. Immediate continuation of the yen's strengthening.

Figure Y2. Completion of a large correction against the yen.
In the framework of scenario 3-dt downward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) is developing as a main wave of a large diagonal triangle. A small difference between almost equally probable variants lies in the depth of the yen’s decline (the rise of USD/JPY) , which the price will prefer. From the point of view of the internal structure of this knot the variant in Figure Y1 has a small advantage. For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports. References Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009 Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 Wave Analysis Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 31, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 07:57 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:40

USD/CHF Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009

The current variant of the wave counting For the survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-09.
Figure C1.Immediate continuation of the US dollar's strengthening.

Figure C2. Completion of a large correction against the dollar.
Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new upward zigzag structure is developing. The choice of one of the equally probable variants will be determined by the depth of downward correction which the price will prefer. For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports. References Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009 Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 Wave Analysis Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 31, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

General notes
From the point of view of wave analysis, the main distinctive feature of the FX market, that influences the global wave picture of the currency pairs, is the relative nature of the prices movement. A chart of any currency pair — is a chart of relative strength of one currency against the other. Permanent progressive movement «forward and up», as in the case of a share index, where weak shares are replaced by strong ones, is unlikely here. Most probably cross rates of the main currencies are in the state of permanent global correction, developing a complicated longstanding corrective structure and increasing variation of such wave countings. Inside of this structure one can see different combinations of Elliott wave patterns that allow to analyze the current situation and to forecast further scenario of events.
Besides, the distinctive features of the FX market that influence  the inner wave structure of patterns, are its high marginality, the practice of currency interventions and  twenty-four-hour conclusion of deals during the working week with changing activity of trading from session to session.

About the current situation on the FX market
In conditions of a developing economical crisis, scenarios with  the midterm strengthening of the US dollar are the most preferable.
Thus, the main expected event of 2009 from the point of view of forecasting of the movement of the currency pairs under consideration is the midterm strengthening of the US dollar in  the form of a corrective wave structure.
All the main and most probable variants of the price movement of the main currency pairs are considered in the corresponding sections.
Accepted abbreviations
«Annual-09» — «Annual Wave Analysis for 2009 »
«Monthly-1208» — «Monthly Wave Analysis for December 2008 »
«Daily-280406» — «Daily Wave Analysis for 28.04.06»

References

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com

January 18, 2009

When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

EUR/USD, Annual Wave Analysis 2009

It is difficult to consider global countings of the euro as it was introduced only in 1998 . The synthesized charts of the earlier period, unfortunately aren’t univocal. That’s why it is logically to accept the most probable from my point of view mirror pattern of CHF - the global triple zigzag (refer to Annual-09)as a global pattern on the monthly time-frame, as the euro often repeats mirror-likely the movements of its twin-brother. In this case all considerations about possible global scenarios of CHF can be referred in full to the euro.
Figure E1.Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dz.
That’s why it is logically to suppose that the ending wave z of the global triple zigzag may assume the shape of a double/triple zigzag while in the nearest future corrective wave[X] of z. will be developing. For the possible scenarios of the development of wave [X] of z refer to the following three Figures.
Figure E2.Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-1.

Figure E3.Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-2.

Figure E4.Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-3.
As the wave structure of this correction develops the number of its possible variants will be decreasing that will allow to make global scenarios more precise and to project possible targets in the monthly forecasts during the current year . References Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 ) GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009 Wave Analysis Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 18, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 08:02 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:41

GBP/USD, Annual Wave Analysis 2009

In order to preserve consistency in consideration of possible scenarios of the price movement the numeration of possible variants remains the same.
Figure G1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 1.
The most probable scenario from my point of view remains the variant with the global double/triple three and wave [X] of x in the form of a large expanding triangle, which is completing at present. Possible but not the only variants of the completion of this triangle [X] of x are shown in the following two Figures.
Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1-1.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1-2.
The choice of one of the given scenarios will depend on what wave patter the price decline will complete from the mark 2.0 — in the form of a zigzag (variant 1-1) or in the form of an impulse (variant 1-2).
Figure G4. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 2.
But taking into consideration the precipitation of the pound during 2008, variant 2 considered earlier is quite real. The given scenarios though are not the only ones, single out the main directions of the supposed price movement. As the wave structure of this correction will develop the number of its possible variants will decrease that will allow to make the global scenarios more precise and to project possible targets in the monthly forecasts during the current year . References Introduction (Annual WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009 Wave Analysis Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 18, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 08:05 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:42

USD/JPY, Annual Wave Analysis 2009

In order to preserve consistency in consideration of possible scenarios of the price movement the numeration of possible variant remains the same.
Figure Y1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 2.
One of the possible scenarios, distinct from the most widespread, is the variant of the global double/triple zigzag (or three), known variant 2, where the supposed corrective wave x may assume the shape of a flat or a double/triple three. In this case after the nearest completion of wave [X] of x a progressive price rise in the form of an impulse or a zigzag structure should be expected. But the most probable and the most widespread variant is my variant of 2004 year in the form of a global impulse with the completed fourth wave IV in the form of a horizontal triangle.
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-1.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-1.

Figure Y4. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-2.

Figure Y5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-2.
The distinction between variant s3-dt-1 and 3-dt-2 lies in different matching of the main waves of the ending diagonal triangle V. The given scenarios of possible development of the supposed wave V single out the main directions of the supposed price movement. As this wave structure develops the number of its possible variants will decrease that will allow to make the global scenarios more precise and to project possible targets in the monthly forecasts during the current year . References Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009 Wave Analysis Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 18, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 08:06 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:43

USD/CHF, Annual Wave Analysis 2009


In order to preserve consistency in the consideration of the possible scenarios of the price movement the numeration of the possible variants remains the same.
Figure C1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 2.
The wave structure of the accepted global pattern doesn’t rule out that the triple zigzag (or diagonal triangle marked with grey color) is completed. In this case the supposed terminus of the whole pattern may serve as a critical level. If the supposition is confirmed developing of a corrective wave (b), that may assume any accepted shape may be expected in the next several years .
Figure C2. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3.
At the same time the current correlation of waves [C] of z and [A] of z of the ending wave z of the global triple zigzag (or diagonal triangle marked with grey color) allows to suppose that wave [C] of z may continue developing. In this case the terminus of wave (2) of [C] of z and the beginning of wave [C] of z itself may serve as critical levels. If the supposition is confirmed the US dollar’s progressive decline will continue and wave [C] of z will reach approximate equality with the first leg of zigzag [A] of z.
Figure C3. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dz.
The most probable scenario from my point of view is somewhere in the middle. Taking into consideration the ongoing economical crisis and the US dollar’s strengthening on the back of the crisis it is logically to suppose further strengthening in 2009 as well. In this case the ending wave z of the global triple zigzag (or diagonal triangle marked with grey color) may assume the shape of a double/triple zigzag while in the nearest future corrective wave [X] of z. will be developing. Possible scenarios of the development of this wave [X] of z are shown in the following Figures.
Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-1.

Figure C5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-2.

Figure C6. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-3.
The given scenarios of the possible development of the supposed wave [x] though aren’t the only ones but single out the main directions of the supposed price movement and once again underline multi variation of corrections. As the wave structure of this correction develops the number of its possible variant will decrease that will allow to make the global scenarios more precise and to project possible targets in the monthly forecasts during the current year. References Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009 Wave Analysis Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 18, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 08:08 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-12 18:44

The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD)

In the article Again the Canadian Dollar and Other Dollar Pairs variant of possible completion of the decline of the Canadian dollar were considered. Judging by the current wave counting the Canadian dollar preferred the alternate scenario plotted in Figure 4 of the mentioned article. Let’s consider the details of the current scenario that can be of practical use for making a trading plan.
Figure 1. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
On the monthly time-frame upward correction [B] is developing after global downward impulse [A]. What shape it will assume isn’t clear yet, but by the moment the supposed upward zigzag (A) of [B] is completing. But so far it isn’t ruled out that this zigzag can transform into a large upward impulse.
Figure 2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
In order to complete the supposed zigzag (A) of [B] the price has to build up the ending wave [v] of C of (A) of the second leg C of (A) of zigzag. The projected area of its terminus may be in the range of 1.30..1.35.
Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
One of the variants of counting of the supposed impulse C of (A) is shown in the Figure. Supposedly, wave [iv] of C of (A) is completed, and the terminus of wave [v] of C of (A) may climb above the level of the terminus of wave [iii] of C of (A) (if it doesn’t develop a truncation). But this supposition contradicts the correlation of the main waves inside wave [v], plotted in the Figure with grey color. The details will be considered in the following two Figures.
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
In the Figures above one can see that if we take the uptrend from the terminus of wave [iv] (value 1.1769) for wave [v] in the whole it won’t be able to climb above the confirmatory level 1.2982, without breaking the critical level 1.2944 (i.e. without breaking the rules of the wave theory). That’s why it is logical to suppose that at the moment not wave [v] of C, is developing, but its first subwave (i) of [v] of C. The terminus of wave (i) of [v] of C this week below the 1.2944 level and the development of downward correction (ii) of [v] of C in the area of 1.2250..1.2050 the next week will confirm this supposition. I would like to note that this scenario isn’t the only one though it is the most probable from my point of view at the moment. Addition of 22.01.09
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Supposedly impulse (i) is completed. If the supposition is true further development of downward correction (ii) should be expected. Addition of 23.01.09
Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Supposedly impulse (i) is completed. The wave structure of the started correction allows to suppose its nearest completion. This may be the terminus of the whole correction (ii). But its relative sizes and small depth allow to suppose that this is only the first part of wave (ii) — zigzag a of (ii). The confirmation of this supposition will be: either upward movement of a corrective nature not higher than the 1.29 mark (wave b of (ii) — ordinary/double/triple zigzag) and then wave (ii) may assume the shape of a flat or a double three, or the continuation of downward progressive movement in zigzag form w-x-y(-x-z) in case the whole wave (ii) decides to assume the shape of a double/triple zigzag. In this case the planned terminus of wave (ii) — the end of the next week. Addition of 27.01.09
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Supposedly double zigzag (ii) is completed. In the framework of the accepted scenario the price has only two possible variants — either to begin immediately developing of the supposed upward wave (iii), or to continue developing of downward triple zigzag (ii). In the first case good prospects for long positions open. The critical levels in this case will be the supposed ending of wave (ii). Addition of 28.01.09
Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min USD/CAD chart.
It isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave (ii) has developed in the form of a triple zigzag. If this is the case the first waves of upward wave (iii) has already started developing. It gives good chances for long positions. But one shouldn’t forget that this supposition requires its confirmation. Addition of 30.01.09
Figure 10. Wave counting on 120 min USD/CAD chart.
The price has reached the lower border of the projected range near the 78% mark having developed the supposed wave (ii) in the form of a triple zigzag. If this is the case the first waves of upward wave (iii) has started to develop. This gives good chances for long positions. But one shouldn't forget that this supposition requires confirmation. Note Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction. Reference Introduction (Annual WA for 2009 ) EUR/USD Annual 2009 GBP/USD Annual 2009 USD/JPY Annual 2009 USD/CHF Annual 2009 Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2009 EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2009 GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2009 USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2009 USD/CHF Monthly Wave analysis, January 2009 Wave Analysis Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) How to Apply EWA Forecasts Dmitry Voznuy forDmitry@yahoo.com January 21, 2009 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory

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