一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Thursday, February 05, 2009Stock Trading Ideas for 2/6/09
Review and a few new ones.




Stock Trading Ideas for 2/6/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 2/05/2009 09:39:00 PM





Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 2/5/09




Posted by Brian at 2/05/2009 04:19:00 PM





Consolidation
is occurring below key resistance in the Qs. A new lower low on the chart on the left might prove to be a shakeout as the market remains firmly above the rising VWAP. Keep stops tight. Advance/Decline ratio is 18:11



Posted by Brian at 2/05/2009 01:40:00 PM





Cup & Handle
The Qs have quickly returned to the 61.8% retracement of the election high and last years lows. It is extended short term but the strong volume increases the chance of a continued move higher..



Posted by Brian at 2/05/2009 12:04:00 PM





Impressive
that the QQQQ was able to recover and hold above the 5DMA and the 2960 level. Trading remains very choppy and you are either quick or dead in this environment.



Posted by Brian at 2/05/2009 10:37:00 AM





Truth
You should not honor men more than truth.
~Plato

Truth is in price- I added that

Posted by Brian at 2/05/2009 05:49:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, February 04, 2009Stock Trading Ideas Video 2/4/09
review and a few new ones.



Stock Trading Ideas for 2/4/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 2/04/2009 08:53:00 PM





Technical Analysis Video Trend Review 2/4/09




Posted by Brian at 2/04/2009 04:15:00 PM





Breakdown
The market was rejected at the 61.8% retracement level and selling picked up the pace below VWAP. Keep an eye on the financials, breaking yesterday's low could lead to a large and quick decline. 2960 could offer support, but it doesnt seem likely.




There are always excellent LINKS on the right side of this blog.

Some good VWAP INFO

Posted by Brian at 2/04/2009 02:20:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Wednesday, February 04, 2009Election Retracement
Nasdaq went positive for the year yesterday and is adding to those gains with a powerful rally on good volume this morning. The market is up at last weeks highs and it is also back to the 61.8% retracement of the election high to the 2008 low. Short term trend is higher, there is no point fighting the momentum, raising stops on longs is the game here.



Posted by Brian at 2/04/2009 11:03:00 AM





Learning Process
There was a time in the evolution of everything you know how to do, when you didn't know how to do it.
D. Giglio

Posted by Brian at 2/04/2009 05:43:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Tuesday, February 03, 2009Stock Trading Ideas Video 2/3/09
review and a few new ones.



Posted by Brian at 2/03/2009 10:59:00 PM





Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 2/3/09




Posted by Brian at 2/03/2009 04:19:00 PM





2960 Breached
now if it can hold this afternoon things could get interesting to the upside.



Posted by Brian at 2/03/2009 02:18:00 PM





Rejected....Again
at least for now. The continued weakness in the financials is too much for this market to have any chance for a real rally to develop. Without participation from the financials, this market will continue to have trouble trying t rally except for very brief periods.



Posted by Brian at 2/03/2009 11:41:00 AM





2960....Again
The Qs are approaching the 2960 level once again. The large volatility under that level may exxagerate an upside breakout. Be prepared for anything semiconductors are strong today.



Posted by Brian at 2/03/2009 10:45:00 AM





Expectations
If you expect nothing and are open to anything, you should never be surprised.
~Brian Shannon

Posted by Brian at 2/03/2009 05:36:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, February 02, 2009Stock Trading Ideas Video 2/2/09
Review and a few new ones.



Posted by Brian at 2/02/2009 10:29:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Lower High and Breakdown?


Posted by Brian at 2/02/2009 01:54:00 PM





Open Mind
is necessary to trade this market. Buyers showed up from the open and the market is above the rising VWAP on the 1 minute timeframe. The 10 min still shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows below the 5DMA which is now found at the important 2960 level.



Posted by Brian at 2/02/2009 10:25:00 AM





Glory
The nearest way to glory is to strive to be what you wish to be thought to be.
~Socrates

Posted by Brian at 2/02/2009 06:10:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Sunday, February 01, 2009Stock Trading Review & New Ideas 2/1/09
A review of previously mentioned stocks and some new trading candidates for the week ahead. Be sure to do your own due diligence and always manage risk first!

SRS, not SDS on the inverse IYR



Posted by Brian at 2/01/2009 05:37:00 PM





Friday, January 30, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/30/09




Posted by Brian at 1/30/2009 04:20:00 PM





Broken
that is the best one word description of the markets. The bulls cannot stay in control for more than a day or two and each new failure leaves buyers with less conviction. Staying below 2960 will be very harmful to remaining longs. Things could get very ugly over the next few weeks.



Posted by Brian at 1/30/2009 11:13:00 AM





Self Doubt
Doubt whom you will, but never yourself.
~Bovee

Posted by Brian at 1/30/2009 05:41:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Thursday, January 29, 2009Stock Trading Ideas & Review 1/29/09


Posted by Brian at 1/29/2009 10:23:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Support?
The market came down to the 2960 level and it is attempting to bounce, but the volume is unimpressive so far and the A/D ratio stinks with 480 advancers and 2513 declining stocks. There is no reason to be a buyer here.



Posted by Brian at 1/29/2009 01:29:00 PM





2960
is back in play on the QQQQ and failure to hold above that level and the rising 5DMA could prove to be the catalyst of a failure on a bigger level. If the market can push back above 29.95 the morning lows will mark an important higher low. Go slow til we have better clarity.



Posted by Brian at 1/29/2009 10:39:00 AM





Business Success
The man who starts out with the idea of getting rich won't succeed; you must have a larger ambition. There is no mystery in business success. If you do each day's task successfully, stay faithfully wihtin the natural operations of commercial law, and keep your head clear, you will come out all right.
~Rockefeller

Posted by Brian at 1/29/2009 05:34:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, January 28, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/28/09





Posted by Brian at 1/28/2009 04:23:00 PM





Holding Gains
after the Fed announcement. If we continue to hold above VWAP there may be another leg higher, but the large volume after announcement raises some concern, dont let your guard down.



Posted by Brian at 1/28/2009 02:45:00 PM





While You Wait
for the Fed madness CHANGE YOUR CHANNEL



Posted by Brian at 1/28/2009 12:13:00 PM





61.8% Retracement
The Qs struggled with the VWAP early on and then broke above it and found support which led to another push higher. The market is getting extended here and is now at the 61.8% retracement of the year high to year low. Time to raise stops on longs.



Posted by Brian at 1/28/2009 11:44:00 AM





Key Levels
The markets are trading above key levels and if they can hold up here (no reason to think not at this point) we could see the beginning of a powerful rally. A pullback below the noted levels and then strength would be provide an ideal entry, but there may be too many people looking for that scenario for it to work. Risk Management is job #1, ALWAYS!

This is a good overview of the STIMULUS BILL

current levels
SPY 86.73
QQQQ 29.97
XLF 10.06
IWM 46.41



Posted by Brian at 1/28/2009 08:15:00 AM





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hefeiddd

No Clear Direction
The market failed to push past resistance and is back below VWAP as the choppy action continues.



Posted by Brian at 1/27/2009 02:18:00 PM





Getting Ready To Go?
It is still early in the day and breakouts usually don't occur til later, but this market feels like it is ready to push past the 2960 level. The 5DMA held as support for a right shoulder and a push past 2960 could get this market going nicely. Be aware of the possibility of a push past resistance and then a failure, do not let your guard down, the primary trend remains lower.



Posted by Brian at 1/27/2009 12:57:00 PM





Choppy Action
2960 continues to define short term resistance in the Qs and unless the market can recapture that level all rally attempts should continue to be viewed with suspicion.




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hefeiddd

Monday, January 26, 2009The 5 DMA
is where this market is attempting to stabilize. There is no reason to be bullish here.



Posted by Brian at 1/26/2009 02:46:00 PM





Resistance
was found where it was expected at 2960 and now the Qs are experiencing a low volume pullback to vwap. The A/D is very strong 2385 advancers and 565 decliners. If the market can hold the bulk of the gains it could strengthen further. As always, though, keep tight stops on longs, primary trend remains lower. Also keep a close eye on the SPY as 86 is an important level.



Posted by Brian at 1/26/2009 11:25:00 AM





Quick Pop
The market is strong this morning but it is approaching the 2960 level very quickly. Don't get excited and chase prices. The SPY is also approaching the important 86 level.



Posted by Brian at 1/26/2009 10:14:00 AM





Initiative
It's the job that's never started that takes longest to finish.
~J.R.R. Tolkien

Posted by Brian at 1/26/2009 06:25:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Sunday, January 25, 2009Stock Trading Ideas Video 1/25/09
The video below has some long and short trading candidates for the week ahead. We remain in a bear market, but you always have to be prepared for any "what ifs." These are not recommendations, they are just ideas which appear to be poised to benefit from directional momentum. Be sure to check for earnings dates if you are considering holding any of these stocks overnight. There is no one best way to trade any of these stocks, make these ideas your own and remember job #1 is ALWAYS risk management!

If the video says "unavailable" please be patient, it is still being processed by youtube, the video is about 19 minutes long.



TOP 25 FINANCIAL BLOGS from
24/7 Wall St Thanks for including me!

Your title What is the ideal length of these videos? 5-10 Minutes 10-15 Minutes 15-20 Minutes view results Create free website polls Send this poll to a friend! Myspace Comments

Posted by Brian at 1/25/2009 03:54:00 PM





Friday, January 23, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/23/09




Posted by Brian at 1/23/2009 04:16:00 PM





Choppy Upside
action continues. Short term, the market is getting extended. Keep stops tight.



Posted by Brian at 1/23/2009 02:10:00 PM





Still A Mess
The early buyers were rewarded as the Qs have held above the daily VWAP for almost the entire session. The 10 minute timeframe is neutral at best and the longer term obviously remains lower. Do not get excited by these rallies, just trade them.



Posted by Brian at 1/23/2009 11:34:00 AM





Infinite Truths
Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.

~Albert Einstein

Posted by Brian at 1/23/2009 06:00:00 AM

Labels: quotes




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hefeiddd

Rapidly Improving
The short term trends are showing aggressive buying and the 5 DMA is flattening out.



Posted by Brian at 1/22/2009 02:02:00 PM





Above VWAP
THe Qs have recaptured VWAP and have support at that level for now. It is a very choppy environment and tough to trust.



Posted by Brian at 1/22/2009 01:04:00 PM





2850 Again
The Qs are back down towards the 2850 level and a break below there could bring about a bigger wave of selling.



Posted by Brian at 1/22/2009 10:31:00 AM





Reason
Never get angry. Never make a threat. Reason with people.

~Mario Puzo, The Godfather

Posted by Brian at 1/22/2009 06:00:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, January 21, 2009Apple Inc (AAPL) is
trading above the 50 DMA after reporting earnings. The direction of the 50 DMA is still lower which suggests the stock will not runaway without digesting gains over the next week or so, but the strength is impressive and bodes well for the market in the short term.

Here is where the stock is trading at 6:30 PM Eastern.


Posted by Brian at 1/21/2009 06:28:00 PM





Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/21/09




Posted by Brian at 1/21/2009 04:16:00 PM





5 DMA
After finding resistance at the VWAP and just below Pivot, the Qs pushed above those levels with some heavier volume and now we are seeing the market up at the declining 5 DMA. A close above 2850 and the 5 DMA could start a slow recovery process but danger remains high.



Posted by Brian at 1/21/2009 02:54:00 PM





No Conviction
The market is attempting to stabilize after yesterday's rout but so far the upside action is uninspiring. The Qs have been rallying up towards the VWAP on decreasing volume and with the daily pivot just ahead at 2845 the market could encounter selling soon.



Posted by Brian at 1/21/2009 11:42:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Sellers Continue
to dominate the action. The Qs are approaching the 2850 level again as the financials flirt with new lows and there is little reason to look for a turn higher at this point.



Posted by Brian at 1/20/2009 10:43:00 AM





Power
The power to do good is also the power to do harm; those who control the power today may not tomorrow; and, more important, what one man regards as good, another may regard as harm
~Milton Friedman

Posted by Brian at 1/20/2009 05:40:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, January 19, 2009Stock Trading Ideas for 1/20/09
The video is a little longer than I wanted (16 minutes) but I think there are some good ideas including;
A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd.(Public, NASDAQ:APWR)
Cameron International Corporation(Public, NYSE:CAM)
Level 3 Communications, Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:LVLT)
Research In Motion Limited (USA)(Public, NASDAQ:RIMM)
BE Aerospace, Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:BEAV)
Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:FSYS)
Perrigo Company(Public, NASDAQ:PRGO)
DENTSPLY International Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:XRAY)
and a few biotech/ stem cell plays.




Posted by Brian at 1/19/2009 10:50:00 AM





Trust
The man who trusts men will make fewer mistakes than he who distrusts them.
~Camillo Benso

Posted by Brian at 1/19/2009 05:36:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Sunday, January 18, 2009Inaugural Hype and the S&P 500
On January 17, 2001 (the day before George Bush's inauguration) the S&P 500 closed at 1329.47, this past Friday (the day before Barack Obama's inauguration) the S&P closed at 850.12. During Bush's 8 year Presidency, the S&P lost 479.35 points or 36.05% If the legacy of a President is judged by the performance of the markets, the Bush administration was a complete failure. More important than how the market performed is how did YOU perform during that time. There is a lot of hope that a new administration will bring new policies which can help turn the market, but the only thing that can cure a bear market is TIME. Focus on price action and until the longer term (weekly) timeframes turn higher all rallies remain GUILTY UNTIL PROVEN INNOCENT!





Posted by Brian at 1/18/2009 09:50:00 AM





Friday, January 16, 2009Technical Analysis Video 1/16/09


Here is the article about LEVERAGED ETFs




Posted by Brian at 1/16/2009 04:24:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Friday, January 16, 20092850 Held
and the Qs are back up to the daily VWAP and the location of the 5DMA. A push above 2925-2930 with some volume could lead to an afternoon rally. I still don't trust the long side for anything more than daytrades.



Posted by Brian at 1/16/2009 01:39:00 PM





Longs Still Cannot be Trusted
when the 5DMA is declining. Yesterday afternoon's low will be important for the market to hold, successfully defending that level will create a short term higher low. 2850 remains an important level as well.



Posted by Brian at 1/16/2009 10:23:00 AM





Business of Life
Don't forget until too late that the business of life is not business, but living.
~B.C. Forbes

Posted by Brian at 1/16/2009 05:32:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Thursday, January 15, 2009Stock Market Trend Analysis 1/15/09




What is an ASSHAT

and who is the ASSHAT of 2008

Posted by Brian at 1/15/2009 04:16:00 PM





From Failed Moves
come fast ones! Qs aproaching declining 5DMA and prior support.



Posted by Brian at 1/15/2009 02:47:00 PM





Mounting Evidence
This morning I said there was no evidence of a turn, if the Qs can maintain above 28.45 we could have big turn coming.



Posted by Brian at 1/15/2009 01:49:00 PM





Open Mind to Price Action
From it's high of 31.63 just seven days ago, the Qs have dropped more than 10% as of yesterday's close. This morning the market is set to open lower and below the larger level of support we have been watching at 28.50. Is is going to be the final death spiral of this move or is it sucking in shorts on "news" in AAPL? Who is left to sell their long positions at this point? It doesn't seem like we can blame hedge fund unwinding any longer. When you get involved in the markets always ask these 2 questions first.
1- where has the market come from?
The Nasdaq has dropped 10% in seven days, it is getting extended to the downside.
2- where does it have the potential to go before there may be an offsetting source of supply or demand?
28.50 is a major level. It is not uncommon for a breakdown from extended levels to flush the stubborn longs and suck in fresh shorts just before a powerful counter trend rally begins.

Right now there is ZERO EVIDENCE that we will experience a turnaround, but it is a possibility you need to be open minded to as the market becomes more deeply oversold.



Posted by Brian at 1/15/2009 08:26:00 AM





Health
Health is not valued till sickness comes.
~Dr. Thomas Fuller

Quit worrying about your health. It'll go away.
~Redd Foxx

Posted by Brian at 1/15/2009 06:00:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, January 14, 2009Rough Open Tomorrow
courtesy of AAPL



Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 05:05:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Downtrend Intact
Only the very shortest timeframes show any hope, if trading long be very careful.




Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 02:56:00 PM





Headed to 28.50?
The Qs are sitting right at daily S2 right now, but it seems as though they have an appointment with the 28.50 level. The market is getting extended to the downside, but that is never a reason to buy.



Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 10:34:00 AM





Full Service Broker and a Couple of Links
A question I often receive is whether there any good retail brokers whose services I can recommend. Many years ago I was a retail broker, my last home was with Dain Bosworth in Denver 15 years ago. It was at Dain Bosworth that I met Jeff Kelly. Jeff is probably the only retail broker I worked with who is still in the business. The business has changed dramatically since I left and Jeff has adapted to those changes and more impressively, he has adapted to the bear market. Here is some information about Jeff

I have been in the business 16 years. I manage portfolios for absolute returns. Being down 36% when the market is down 37% is not acceptable. We want to achieve positive returns in virtually any market enviornment. To achieve this end we make risk management our highest priority.Contact at jkelly34@bloomberg.net.

If you are looking for an honest and competent broker who understands the markets I would suggest you start a dialogue with Jeff and see where it leads. I will let him tell you about how he had a position limit (5,000 contracts) for his clients in Fannie Mae put options.

Best posts of 2008 from THE GOOD DOCTOR

This guy has been killing it with the TRIPLE ETFs

Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 10:20:00 AM





Worth
Try not to become a man of success but rather try to become a man of value.
~Albert Einstein

Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 05:26:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Tuesday, January 13, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/13/09





Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 04:20:00 PM





Scalp Trades
This is why short term strength is only a reason for scalp trades until the larger, more powerful, trends turn. The market is testing the 2925 level and if it breaks, the next larger level of potential support is found near 2850.



Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 01:58:00 PM





Somewhat Encouraging
Today's action is encouraging, but the intermediate trend remains lower. If the QQQQ can hold here and confirm a higher low, there could be a late day push past 30 and make a run for the declining 5 DMA. It is still very diffiicult to trust the long side for more than a scalp trade.



Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 11:59:00 AM





Bad Trade Gone Good (with some luck)
Every once in a while we all let our guard down and become undisciplined in our trading, rarely does it work to our advantage. Yesterday I started the day with a bearish mindset and had early success with a couple of short positions. One stock which looked like it should continue lower for more than a scalp trade was Celgene (CELG) With my bearish bias, I shorted 500 shares near 50.10 in an an account I manage for my Dad and in which I generally position for slightly longer holds than the ones I usually mention. I got sidetracked for a bit and didn't realize that the stock rallied over a dollar very quickly. When the stock was 51.20 (or so) I realized that I had an open loss of over a dollar on my 500 share position. I looked at the chart and saw the stock was firmly above daily VWAP and realized I would have to bite the bullet and take the loss. At this point I chastised myself for failing to set a stop on a stock I wasn't going to watch closely.

I checked the P/L for the account and saw an open loss of approximately $5,600 and realized in horror that I had accidentally sold short 5000 shares, not 500! Emotions quickly turned to rage as I recognized what I had carelessly done. I knew I had to calm down and take an objective look at the stock before I puked my position and bought back all shares at a loss. I saw the stock was butting up against the declining 5 DMA and figured I would give it just a little bit longer to see if I may be able to minimize the damages somewhat.

What happened next was truly unbelievable. The stock imploded. It dropped so fast that by the time I entered my buy to cover orders in I had covered the entire position with a gain of $.68/share! In the course of just a few minutes I went from being down $5,600 to up $3,400. I wish all my bad trades went so well.




This type of luck cannot be relied upon (obviously) and while the money made will spend the same as it does from profitable trades I am more disciplined with, the experience left a very bad taste in my mouth. Reminders to self; double check open positions, if I am not going to watch the stock closely then set a stop.

Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 08:36:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Downtrend Intact
Only the very shortest timeframes show any hope, if trading long be very careful.




Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 02:56:00 PM





Headed to 28.50?
The Qs are sitting right at daily S2 right now, but it seems as though they have an appointment with the 28.50 level. The market is getting extended to the downside, but that is never a reason to buy.



Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 10:34:00 AM





Full Service Broker and a Couple of Links
A question I often receive is whether there any good retail brokers whose services I can recommend. Many years ago I was a retail broker, my last home was with Dain Bosworth in Denver 15 years ago. It was at Dain Bosworth that I met Jeff Kelly. Jeff is probably the only retail broker I worked with who is still in the business. The business has changed dramatically since I left and Jeff has adapted to those changes and more impressively, he has adapted to the bear market. Here is some information about Jeff

I have been in the business 16 years. I manage portfolios for absolute returns. Being down 36% when the market is down 37% is not acceptable. We want to achieve positive returns in virtually any market enviornment. To achieve this end we make risk management our highest priority.Contact at jkelly34@bloomberg.net.

If you are looking for an honest and competent broker who understands the markets I would suggest you start a dialogue with Jeff and see where it leads. I will let him tell you about how he had a position limit (5,000 contracts) for his clients in Fannie Mae put options.

Best posts of 2008 from THE GOOD DOCTOR

This guy has been killing it with the TRIPLE ETFs

Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 10:20:00 AM





Worth
Try not to become a man of success but rather try to become a man of value.
~Albert Einstein

Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 05:26:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Tuesday, January 13, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/13/09





Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 04:20:00 PM





Scalp Trades
This is why short term strength is only a reason for scalp trades until the larger, more powerful, trends turn. The market is testing the 2925 level and if it breaks, the next larger level of potential support is found near 2850.



Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 01:58:00 PM





Somewhat Encouraging
Today's action is encouraging, but the intermediate trend remains lower. If the QQQQ can hold here and confirm a higher low, there could be a late day push past 30 and make a run for the declining 5 DMA. It is still very diffiicult to trust the long side for more than a scalp trade.



Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 11:59:00 AM





Bad Trade Gone Good (with some luck)
Every once in a while we all let our guard down and become undisciplined in our trading, rarely does it work to our advantage. Yesterday I started the day with a bearish mindset and had early success with a couple of short positions. One stock which looked like it should continue lower for more than a scalp trade was Celgene (CELG) With my bearish bias, I shorted 500 shares near 50.10 in an an account I manage for my Dad and in which I generally position for slightly longer holds than the ones I usually mention. I got sidetracked for a bit and didn't realize that the stock rallied over a dollar very quickly. When the stock was 51.20 (or so) I realized that I had an open loss of over a dollar on my 500 share position. I looked at the chart and saw the stock was firmly above daily VWAP and realized I would have to bite the bullet and take the loss. At this point I chastised myself for failing to set a stop on a stock I wasn't going to watch closely.

I checked the P/L for the account and saw an open loss of approximately $5,600 and realized in horror that I had accidentally sold short 5000 shares, not 500! Emotions quickly turned to rage as I recognized what I had carelessly done. I knew I had to calm down and take an objective look at the stock before I puked my position and bought back all shares at a loss. I saw the stock was butting up against the declining 5 DMA and figured I would give it just a little bit longer to see if I may be able to minimize the damages somewhat.

What happened next was truly unbelievable. The stock imploded. It dropped so fast that by the time I entered my buy to cover orders in I had covered the entire position with a gain of $.68/share! In the course of just a few minutes I went from being down $5,600 to up $3,400. I wish all my bad trades went so well.




This type of luck cannot be relied upon (obviously) and while the money made will spend the same as it does from profitable trades I am more disciplined with, the experience left a very bad taste in my mouth. Reminders to self; double check open positions, if I am not going to watch the stock closely then set a stop.

Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 08:36:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Downtrend Intact
Only the very shortest timeframes show any hope, if trading long be very careful.




Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 02:56:00 PM





Headed to 28.50?
The Qs are sitting right at daily S2 right now, but it seems as though they have an appointment with the 28.50 level. The market is getting extended to the downside, but that is never a reason to buy.



Posted by Brian at 1/14/2009 10:34:00 AM







This is why short term strength is only a reason for scalp trades until the larger, more powerful, trends turn. The market is testing the 2925 level and if it breaks, the next larger level of potential support is found near 2850.



Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 01:58:00 PM





Somewhat Encouraging
Today's action is encouraging, but the intermediate trend remains lower. If the QQQQ can hold here and confirm a higher low, there could be a late day push past 30 and make a run for the declining 5 DMA. It is still very diffiicult to trust the long side for more than a scalp trade.



Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 11:59:00 AM





Bad Trade Gone Good (with some luck)
Every once in a while we all let our guard down and become undisciplined in our trading, rarely does it work to our advantage. Yesterday I started the day with a bearish mindset and had early success with a couple of short positions. One stock which looked like it should continue lower for more than a scalp trade was Celgene (CELG) With my bearish bias, I shorted 500 shares near 50.10 in an an account I manage for my Dad and in which I generally position for slightly longer holds than the ones I usually mention. I got sidetracked for a bit and didn't realize that the stock rallied over a dollar very quickly. When the stock was 51.20 (or so) I realized that I had an open loss of over a dollar on my 500 share position. I looked at the chart and saw the stock was firmly above daily VWAP and realized I would have to bite the bullet and take the loss. At this point I chastised myself for failing to set a stop on a stock I wasn't going to watch closely.

I checked the P/L for the account and saw an open loss of approximately $5,600 and realized in horror that I had accidentally sold short 5000 shares, not 500! Emotions quickly turned to rage as I recognized what I had carelessly done. I knew I had to calm down and take an objective look at the stock before I puked my position and bought back all shares at a loss. I saw the stock was butting up against the declining 5 DMA and figured I would give it just a little bit longer to see if I may be able to minimize the damages somewhat.

What happened next was truly unbelievable. The stock imploded. It dropped so fast that by the time I entered my buy to cover orders in I had covered the entire position with a gain of $.68/share! In the course of just a few minutes I went from being down $5,600 to up $3,400. I wish all my bad trades went so well.




This type of luck cannot be relied upon (obviously) and while the money made will spend the same as it does from profitable trades I am more disciplined with, the experience left a very bad taste in my mouth. Reminders to self; double check open positions, if I am not going to watch the stock closely then set a stop.

Posted by Brian at 1/13/2009 08:36:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Critical Area
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) continues to be under intermediate term pressure and it is now testing the 61.8% retracement level outlined on the 30 minute timeframe. The 50 day moving average is also found near by at ~29.66. Fib levels and moving averages are not reasons to buy, they are just tools to help us determine where buyers and sellers may congregate, our job is then to observe the action on shorter term timeframes to look for clues of a potential shift. If buyers are going to save this market from a collapse this is where support will need to be found. Right now there is no evidence that buyers are stepping up. With options expiration on Friday and the Presidential Inaguration next Tuesday, volatility should remain high which will continue to favor shorter term trades.




Posted by Brian at 1/12/2009 11:17:00 AM





Loss
When wealth is lost, nothing is lost; when health is lost, something is lost; when character is lost, all is lost.
~Billy Graham

Posted by Brian at 1/12/2009 05:43:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Friday, January 09, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/9/09




Posted by Brian at 1/09/2009 04:13:00 PM





Live Analysis at 1 PM Eastern
free event to discuss markets HERE

Posted by Brian at 1/09/2009 10:47:00 AM





Fail To Confirm
The short term trends failed to confirm the potential for a bullish setup and if the market doesn't hold above the 2/3 retrace near2960 there could be major trouble. This is why you have to keep an open mind to any scenario.



Posted by Brian at 1/09/2009 10:15:00 AM





News
Only price pays, but unless you live under a rock you have seen the terrible news on the jobs front. In last nights video I mentioned that the daily charts are looking as bullish as they have in quite a while and that remains true, but is it a trap? Be very careful today. Futures are flat right now and dropping. Remember, it is not the headline that matters, but the reaction of the market.

Let's see where the market is at 1 PM Eastern I will do a free live video/chat for about 30 minutes to discuss market trend and look at some stocks check back later for a link. I will not answer emails regarding this event.

Here is the link


Posted by Brian at 1/09/2009 08:38:00 AM





Feedback
I receive a lot of positive feedback about but don't post it because I know it can be annoying to read on this site constantly. Here is a nice one I received last night.

Brian,

i just wanted to give you some feedback on your book

it's exactly what i've been looking for. your system clicks for me like tumblers in a lock. the only system i ever felt a positive intuition for was IBD. something about buying on strength / selling on weakness just feels right and that i'm comfortable with. i avoid knife catching.. don't like it... at all

your system is golden Brian. i just can't tell you how much misunderstanding you've cleared up for me. i've been trading for 2 years. if i only had this book from the start

i just want to say thanks.. and well done!!!

all the best,
Charles

Here's another sent to me this morning

Brian, i have been trading for about two years. Over that period i have probably read over 50 trading books. Then i came across your book and i must say...it is one of the best trading books i've ever read. It is the only book one needs to be successfull in the markets.
99% of the books out there focus on bullshit indicators or systems that never work.

THANK YOU !!!!!

Andrew P

Posted by Brian at 1/09/2009 08:04:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Critical Area
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) continues to be under intermediate term pressure and it is now testing the 61.8% retracement level outlined on the 30 minute timeframe. The 50 day moving average is also found near by at ~29.66. Fib levels and moving averages are not reasons to buy, they are just tools to help us determine where buyers and sellers may congregate, our job is then to observe the action on shorter term timeframes to look for clues of a potential shift. If buyers are going to save this market from a collapse this is where support will need to be found. Right now there is no evidence that buyers are stepping up. With options expiration on Friday and the Presidential Inaguration next Tuesday, volatility should remain high which will continue to favor shorter term trades.




Posted by Brian at 1/12/2009 11:17:00 AM











Fail To Confirm
The short term trends failed to confirm the potential for a bullish setup and if the market doesn't hold above the 2/3 retrace near2960 there could be major trouble. This is why you have to keep an open mind to any scenario.



Posted by Brian at 1/09/2009 10:15:00 AM











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hefeiddd

Quiet Consolidation
The daily timeframe continues to show the market holding above the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages and the 10 minute timeframe shows a higher low above the 50% retracement level. Some more time consolidating in this area would be constructive, right now there is no reason to be aggressive in either direction



Posted by Brian at 1/08/2009 02:05:00 PM





Stabilizing
The market is finding some stability above the prior resistance and location of 50% retracement near 30.00. More consolidative action today and tomorrow could set up a good rally into options expiration next week. If sellers return, the 2970-2980 level will be critical to hold.



Posted by Brian at 1/08/2009 11:03:00 AM





Key Level in QQQQ
Sellers are back before the market open as the market closes in on the 50% retracement of the late December low to the high on Tuesday. A move below 30 today would find some important technicals in the 29.70-29.80 level; Daily S2~29.80, the 50 DMA ~29.69 and the 61.8% retracement ~2970



Posted by Brian at 1/08/2009 08:29:00 AM





Recession or Depression?
It's a recession if your neighbor loses his job, but a depression if you lose yours-pain is local.
~Joe (a real trader) from UPSIDETRADER

Posted by Brian at 1/08/2009 06:37:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, January 07, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/7/09




Posted by Brian at 1/07/2009 04:21:00 PM





Could Still Get Worse
The markets remain under pressure and further sellling this afternoon would not surprise me.



Posted by Brian at 1/07/2009 02:47:00 PM





Tough To Trust
The Qs have found initial support at the conjunction of the 38.2% retracement and the 5 DMA, but it remains below daily VWAP. Best to continue slow for now.



Posted by Brian at 1/07/2009 10:44:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Wednesday, January 07, 2009Retracement Levels Nasdaq 100
IF this morning's weakness turns into a buying opportunity, the chart of the QQQQ below shows the fibonacci retracement levels of the recent rally. These are not levels to buy, they are levels to watch the market closely for evidence that buyers are getting involved. If it becomes clear that support is being found then your actions to buy or sell should come from a shorter term timeframe where you can manage risk closely.


Notice that the 38.2% retracement is coincident with the rising 5 day moving average.
Current Moving Averages on Daily Timeframe
10DMA - 29.80
20DMA - 29.81
50DMA - 29.68

.

Posted by Brian at 1/07/2009 08:57:00 AM





Meaning of Money
If women didn't exist, all the money in the world would have no meaning.
~Aristotle Onassis

Posted by Brian at 1/07/2009 06:10:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Tuesday, January 06, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/6/09




Posted by Brian at 1/06/2009 04:22:00 PM





Higher Highs, Higher Lows
The market continues to show a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the 10 minute timeframe, but the heavier volume near the open and subsequent activity below daily VWAP is reason to go slow with trades today. There is no sign of reversal here but big volume without further upside often means distribution.

My buddy Adam always has great content and he's got a NEW LOOK on the way.



Posted by Brian at 1/06/2009 11:27:00 AM





8 Low Priced Stocks
The JANUARY EFFECT has been strong so far and many of the stocks have gotten quite extended. Below are the 30 minute/30 day charts for 8 stocks which appear to be in an area where risk can be managed easier. Remember that these stocks are not likely to have good fundamentals and should be considered risky. If/how you trade them is up to you, I am just pointing out the potential opportunity. Risk management is job #1.




Posted by Brian at 1/06/2009 09:16:00 AM





Old Pilots (Think Traders)
There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots.
~W. W. Windstaff

Posted by Brian at 1/06/2009 06:12:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, January 05, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 1/5/09




Posted by Brian at 1/05/2009 04:17:00 PM





Careful
The market and a lot of stocks have rallied very strongly recently, be sure to have an exit strategy in mind. THe market could reverse quickly if sellers can take control and push it below vwap and the earlier support near 3088. The evidence isn't there for a reversal, but you have to always anticipate.




Posted by Brian at 1/05/2009 02:26:00 PM





Holding Up
Stocks are mixed but are holding onto the gains and remain above daily VWAP. 30.60 will be an important intermediate term level for the market. Do not let your guard down.



Posted by Brian at 1/05/2009 11:35:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Push Past Resistance?
It is still prudent to be cautious as the market closes in on recent resistance, but it does not make sense to sell short as the market continues higher. The critics will say "but it is on low volume" ONLY PRICE PAYS. Volume just give us reason to be ready to move quickly when price action dictates. The market loves to confuse the majority of participants and breaking past resistance might do that. The longer term downtrend remains intact but a move past 3085 could lead to a few more days of strength. Do not try to predict, but instead be prepared for any scenario. The IWM and SPY are above their recent important resistance levels.



Posted by Brian at 1/02/2009 01:14:00 PM





Approaching the Top Of The Range
2009 is beginning with a follow through of the strength from the final days of last year. Seems like everything is up today, don't let your confidence get in the way of protecting profits. The Qs are coming up towards the top end of the recent range and with R2 at 30.39 it makes sense to raise stops on long positions.



Posted by Brian at 1/02/2009 11:27:00 AM











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Absence of Supply
It seems as though there is a simple absence of supply on the final day of trading and the little buying volume is pushing stocks higher.



Posted by Brian at 12/31/2008 11:16:00 AM





Goals
A goal without a plan is just a wish.
~Antoine de Saint-Exupery

Posted by Brian at 12/31/2008 06:30:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Critical Level
The QQQQ has dropped down to a critical level of support. It appears the market is trying to stabilize here, but the frequency of the tests of this level have been increasing which makes it more dangerous.



Posted by Brian at 12/29/2008 10:34:00 AM






Labels: quotes


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hefeiddd

Saturday, December 27, 200812 Year Lows?
If the SP 500 closes below the 2002 close of 879.92 it will mark a 12 year closing low.



Posted by Brian at 12/27/2008 02:24:00 PM





Friday, December 26, 2008Stock Market Close 12/26/08
It was a low volume, uneventful day.



Posted by Brian at 12/26/2008 11:10:00 PM





Doesn't Seem
to be any point to trading today. Here's a look at the QQQQ and its nineteen cent range for today. If anything interesting happens I will post a video after the close, but it isn't looking likely. I am going to go do something MORE INTERESTING



Posted by Brian at 12/26/2008 11:04:00 AM





Hope
There are no hopeless situations: there are only men who have grown hopeless about them.
~Clare Boothe Luce

Posted by Brian at 12/26/2008 08:14:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Thursday, December 25, 2008Merry Christmas
Christmas is the one time of year when people of all religions come together to worship Jesus Christ.
~Bart Simpson

Blessed is the season which engages the whole world in a conspiracy of love.
~Hamilton Wright Mabie





Posted by Brian at 12/25/2008 01:32:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, December 24, 2008Stock Market Close 12/24/08
No video today. The net change of the QQQQ sums it up.

Enjoy your day off tomorrow.




Posted by Brian at 12/24/2008 02:58:00 PM





Gold
Remember this December, that love weighs more than gold!
~Josephine Dodge Daskam Bacon

Posted by Brian at 12/24/2008 06:40:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Tuesday, December 23, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 12/23/08




Posted by Brian at 12/23/2008 04:32:00 PM





Stay Nimble
Sellers are back and the prior support at 28.75 looks like it will be tested again. If that level fails to hold it could clear the way for a drop down towards daily S2 near 28.15 Thin trading makes it necessary to remain nimble.



Posted by Brian at 12/23/2008 12:33:00 PM





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hefeiddd

SANTA RALLY? THIS GUY NEEDS SOME HELP

Posted by Brian at 12/22/2008 03:40:00 PM

Labels: book review



Trendlinde Broken
and the Qs look to be headed to next level near 28.75



Posted by Brian at 12/22/2008 11:34:00 AM





Inevitable
Nothing is inevitable until it happens.
~J.P. Taylor

Posted by Brian at 12/22/2008 06:17:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Saturday, December 20, 2008How To Profit From The Bernie Madoff Scheme
The BERNIE MADOFF drama continues to unfold as victims of his swindle are revealed, it is truly a sad story and another black eye for the financial industry. The true level of deceit is expected to take years to unravel and the biggest beneficiaries will likely be lawyers who are undoubtedly billing massive hours as they work to recover funds from anyone remotely connected to the scheme. It seems pretty obvious to me that the Nasdaq (NDAQ) will come under scrutiny as old Bernie was the former Chairman of the Nasdaq. Whether or not the Nasdaq has done anything wrong isn't the point. There could be a growing suspicion of the publicly traded company which could result in a lack of shareholder confidence that leads to a liquidation of NDAQ shares of what holders may think is a tarnished company. Also, as the bear market wears on, trading volumes are likely to drift lower which could also be another fundamental reason to think that NDAQ could be a good short candidate. A good story (or in this case a bad one) is never a reason to get involved in a stock without studying the technicals first. So let's look at some charts using MULTIPLE TIMEFRAMES below.

WEEKLY TIMEFRAME
Shares of NDAQ are below the declining 10, 20, 30 and 40 week moving averages, the sellers are in control of the longer term trend.


DAILY TIMEFRAME



30 MINUTE TIMEFRAME


10 MINUTE TIMEFRAME



So, how to play this? Well that is up to your own personal risk tolerance, time horizon, etc. I am considering buying puts 2-3 months out, maybe the March 22.50's (bid 2.60 offered 2.75) and trading the stock short on a daytrade/swingtrade basis. To me, the stock looks like it could drop to 12-15/share once it really gets going. The idea would to have a core short position via the puts (which limits risk) and to pay for those puts with trading profits. Risk Management is Job #1.

Posted by Brian at 12/20/2008 05:40:00 PM





Friday, December 19, 2008Drunk A Lot of Wine
and I'm feelin fine



Posted by Brian at 12/19/2008 09:31:00 PM





Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 12/19/08




STILL TIME TO ORDER FOR CHRISTMAS DELIVERY


Posted by Brian at 12/19/2008 04:19:00 PM





Pin Risk
Pin risk occurs when the underlier of an option contract settles close to the option's strike value at expiration. In this situation, the underlier is said to have pinned. The risk to the writer (seller) of the option is that they cannot predict with 100% accuracy whether the option will be exercised or not. Therefore, the writer may end up with a residual position in the underlier. There is a chance that the price of the underlier may gap adversely, resulting in an unanticipated loss to the writer. In other words, an option position may result a large, undesired risky position in the underlier on the Monday following expiration regardless of the actions of the trader.

READ MORE from wikipedia.

You can see this action in the Qs at 30, SPY at 90, AAPL at 90 and dozens of other stocks.



Posted by Brian at 12/19/2008 11:52:00 AM





Advice
Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn't.
~Erica Jong

Posted by Brian at 12/19/2008 06:01:00 AM

Labels: quotes




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hefeiddd

Thursday, December 18, 20082950
Is critical to the Qs on a closing basis. It is the approximate location of the 5DMA, the trendline and prior support/resistance. It is not likely that I will have a video today, if I do it won't be til later.



Posted by Brian at 12/18/2008 03:01:00 PM





Weakening
It is often the fourth touch of a trendline which proves to be fatal. Be careful.



Posted by Brian at 12/18/2008 01:45:00 PM





Rangebound
The markets continue to hold up under important levels of resistance. The most significant level for the Qs continues to be near 30.85. Until this market gives us better directional clues it is best to trade slow. There are 1840 advancing stocks and 1111 declining.



Posted by Brian at 12/18/2008 10:57:00 AM





Focus
Concentrate all your thoughts upon the work at hand. THe sun's rays do not burn until brought to a focus.
~Alexander Graham Bell

Posted by Brian at 12/18/2008 06:59:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, December 17, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 12/17/08





Posted by Brian at 12/17/2008 04:16:00 PM





A Losing Trade

Show Me A Losing Trade from brian shannon on Vimeo.



Posted by Brian at 12/17/2008 02:53:00 PM

Labels: live trade video




Good Action
The Qs took out the short term level of 30.20 and are now consolidating under the larger level of prior resistance. There are 18 stocks up for every 12 lower and that supports the bullish case here. Financials are up to the important 13.00 level.



Posted by Brian at 12/17/2008 01:23:00 PM





Struggling
The Qs are struggling near the 2 day VWAP and will need to clear the short term lower high near 3020 and the bigger level of 3065 for a rally to hold. If the market breaks below 2960 it would be reason for bigger concern



Posted by Brian at 12/17/2008 11:30:00 AM





Stocktwits
is the latest creation from HOWARD LINDZON This is a good summary from ROGER EHRENBERG Roger left me off his list, but that's okay I don't think he knows I'm involved. I will still participate in the upside as an investor and a contributor to the community.

Visit STOCKTWITS my username is @alphatrends

When you have a few mintues, read the excellent posts from Dr.Brett on the NYSE TICK

PART 1

PART 2

Posted by Brian at 12/17/2008 08:28:00 AM





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