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发表于 2009-3-24 13:53
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7/18/20067 18 06 Forgot this chart
 I forgot to add this to previous post.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/18/2006 05:31:00 PM
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7 18 06 Some more decent shorts
I have become aware that when I say outloud my opinion of the market condition, that whatever I am thinking is usually a contrary indicator. Yesterday I spoke of looking for a bounce and until this afternoon shorts were very nice and my longs have been getting stopped out. Then over lunch I put up a chart showing my longer term target of 120 on SPY, and, the market bounces this afternoon.
Anyway, these longs were dubious but if the market had bounced this am I suppose they might've worked out.
NTAP: This was not a correct setup, but I thought if the market broke to the upside it was good risk reward to 29. But like UST I tightened this stop right away, and was rinsed. At first I thought I had missed the move to 29 but it ended up stalling at then going to the stop without hitting 29.
UST: I bought UST at higher highs which is usually not a good sign, the best trades I take are smaller bases within a larger base on the 5min or 15min and they then go on to hit new highs or lows. When the other longs I was in looked weak I decided to tighten all my stops since on my very best trades they never look back when they get going. So in worst case I was going to rinse myself but I thought this wasn't a bad decision on day two of tricky market consolidation. After rinsing the 47 area UST actually went into the target at the close.
STI: I started trying to get out of STI when it was trading at 78.95 area right after the breakout rolled over, along with the other longs I was in. It took my .15 to get a fill and I count myself lucky I got out at 78.81. I hate my fills currently with MB Trading on listed stocks.
RYL: This was more of a picture perfect setup, and not just because it worked out. There was a very nice base in the 30min chart that triggered a short on that time frame, then there was an OK consolidation on the 5min, the 1min entry was more risky because I sold into that drop to new lows. I kept my order at 35.99 even tho the price spiked .10 through that with no fill, and I got filled in that choppiness. Because of the larger time frame and 5min 20sma resistance right above I did not get nervous during the base I was stuck in. When the price reached 35.78 I asked in my journal "Add 35.78?" and the answer was yes, I also asked "Big Winner" which this would've been. My current plan is to try to get at least 2 to 1 on this nice trades which is a big improvement on what I used to get. I also am trying to identify as soon as possible if I "think" I am in a "Big Winner". If I turn out to be consistently correct in this judgement at a decent price, I might change my strategy on these "Big Winners" by perhaps adding shares or by holding them based on some other exit plan like my Risk Reward Do or Die 2. As it was I got nervous and took a partial early incorrectly, but I did hold half into the target, but even then I skimped on .18 as RYL went right to my price target and then further, this is a big problem I am trying to solve and recently my attempts at a solution have resulted in larger winning risk reward trades so I think I am on the right track.
TXN: My 1min entry on this was not ideal, but I also liked the 30min on this, it looked like a short pattern on that had triggered yesterday afternoon. When the SPY spiked into 11am I got nervous about giving up all my open gains on 3 positions over lunch, so I closed TXN. TXN didn't go to my price target tho it did go to 27.50.
MXIM: I bailed on this at the same time I closed TXN and took half off RYL. MXIM actually did later in the afternoon what I was afraid of it doing over lunch. In hindsight it might make sense to take partials in things like this, that way I leave open the possiblilty of still being in. The reason I took half RYL and didn't close was I was convinced RYL was the big winner. MXIM had a con in that the base I got into was already at new lows so I considered it more likely to fail. Again, MXIM had a nice 30min base it was dropping out of.
If I had ignored TXN and followed my plan correctly on RYL and MXIM I would've closed twice as much gain. I think exiting early on NTAP, UST and STI was not the wrong thing to do, because those almost immediately moved against me, and I knew they were not perfectly correct and without futures support they were likely to stop me. But exiting TXN, MXIM and RYL early was wrong because while they were a little slow to get going, they otherwise did not actually move more than .10 against me, and in fact where I closed them they were actually performing as I wanted. Contrast this with UST which just looked risky and I seemed to have bought the high of the day, NTAP moved slowly higher after I got in and looked like possible rounding highs and STI just dropped right after I got in. My point is that I am trying to find a middle ground between holding original stops do or die, or, getting out of things that look like they are less than perfect. Do or die with original stops has never been successful for me other than an experiment to see what it's like to do so, and getting right out of things less than perfect makes me get rinsed out of trades that just needed a little time to work out. I hope this isn't a lost cause but, I am convinced that with experience and a level headed assesment of market conditions, I will be able to respond correctly between trades that seem to be failing, and ones that are just working out slowly.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/18/2006 05:29:00 PM
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J. M. Hurst cycle analysis on SPY 7 18 06
I thought I would post some charts of this JM Hurst cycle work I do on SPY as a proxy for the direction of the market and where I can expect support or resistance. This helps me with an intraday bias overall, and is sort of fun and strange. These charts are from Page 99 of his book, go look it up:
 This shows that the cycle is now down until SPY 120 area.
 This is all of the cycle work I've done the last few years. I tested other sma periods and 60 in fact seems to work well for the larger swings I wanted to track. Cool stuff, just another tool though, and maybe more of a frame of reference to think about larger time frames in the market, then some sort of money making magic tool.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/18/2006 01:25:00 PM
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7/17/20067 17 06 Some stats from today
The above is some data I collect from my trades, those are the trades I did today. Actual RR mean what my actual Risk Reward result was from the trade. Max RR means the maximum risk reward available calculated from the farthest the trade went in my favor. Current Correct Plan is what my results would've been if I had followed my plan completely correctly.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/17/2006 08:48:00 PM
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7 17 06 Narrow range, waiting for bounce
With impending middle east war, North Korea sailing missles around, oil coming off of record highs, I would've thought there would be a rally today. Instead there was narrow range day. At 2p SPY seemed to break out of a trend channel but there was no follow through. There was a rinse to lows and then a bounce back within the range, so overall no direction. From what came up on my scanner, and in terms of what kind of setups worked best, today there was a short bias intraday.
First up is PTEN:
 This came up on my scanner for new 3 month lows. This had a few cons, it has already had a few days of downside, but I thought from looking at the base break on the 30min chart that triggered on friday morning, that there was room for this to go lower. The next support I see on the daily is the 200sma on the weekly chart. This already had a wide range move intraday when I shorted at 9.50a, which is one reason I used a wide stop. I should've passed on this and waited for a better timed entry. After I got stopped out there was one at about 10.15a. I got stopped out like an idiot because I tightened my stop to above that base in the 24.35 area, when my original stop was 24.42 which was never hit. Even though in this case the tight stop took me out of the trade, I often find using these sort of earlier reversal bases gets me out of losing trades early.
Next up is LCAV:
This was the big winner. I even wrote in my journal Big Winner after this started moving in my favor, and asked "add shares at 45.65?" which would've been a yes. I need to study this more though. Anyway, I currently am trying to hold these kind of trades to 2 to 1 risk reward, at which point I allow myself to take profits. I know I leave profits on the table, but, up until recently I was unable even to get winning trades with risk reward higher than 1, so this is my devils bargain. This also was extended to the downside on the daily. This is what I mean about a short bias intraday. The two nicest looking trades I got involved with were shorts where the daily was extended to the downside. LCAV gave up all it's gains later, but then closed near 45 anyway. So even though SPY was chopping around, the only decent longs I saw but didn't trade were BIDU and HANS, but these two shorts were very good risk reward.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/17/2006 04:55:00 PM
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