The weak PPI data appears to be setting the stage for a drop in UK CPI, due to be released on Tuesday. While the BOE has remained relatively hawkish, a reading in line with expectations (-0.2% MoM, 2.3% YoY) would cut back speculation of a rate hike in September. Nevertheless, markets are still looking for a hike before the first quarter of 2008, and depending upon how CPI fares in coming months, it will likely occur in November or December.
That said, I see a lot of fundamental support for drop in GBPUSD to the 2.00 level, especially upon a break of short-term trendline support (see 4hr chart - currently just below 2.01)Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7566&stc=1&d=1187025994 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7567&stc=1&d=1187026001
At this point, I think any bounces we see will be short lived. While we may see a few days of consolidation at these levels (1.9960-2.0050), a break below trendline support will likely ensue.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7591&stc=1&d=1187128381
http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/7945/gbpusdspotof5.png
Who says corrections are tough to trade http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
Range setup, Slow & Low!
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7689&stc=1&d=1187449971
do not rush, always wait!
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7721&stc=1&d=1187711172
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7718&stc=1&d=1187701090
chart update from previous post.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7742&stc=1&d=1187785713
Watch out for a reversal in Cable in the 2.0153-2.0271 zone. This is the 50%-61.8% of 2.0654-1.9651. The 161.8% extension of the prior advance is in the middle of this zone at 2.0204.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7765&stc=1&d=1187877872
GBPUSD
A pair broke through the top border of daily descending trend, that now opens a road for growth to the strategic aim 2.0401. A rally to this aim assumes a local aim 2.0306, and if it shows resistance, then support level will be found at 2.0117. From that level pair will go up to the strategic purpose 2.0401.
There is the second variant of events development as well:
There is a resistance level at 2.0145, if pair doesn’t pass through it, support level will be found at 2.0029. From that level events will develop on the first scenario.
Growth is also possible straight to 2.0401.
==================
Trade recommendation:
to buy at 2.0029 with target on 2.0401, if pair finds resistance on 2.0145;
to buy at 2.0117 with target on 2.0401, if pair finds resistance on 2.0306.
to buy at 2.0029 with target on 2.0401.
http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/6757/gbp2sj8.gif
http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/2769/gbp1zy9.gif
Dear John and all,
Checking my 4hours chart, at this point of time (Aug 29th/9:30GMT), certainly looks like the spot wants to stay into the rising daily channel and rising 4hours channel. 1.9980 looks good support. Long above 4hours SMA20? Potential 2.0-2.02 range?
If pair is back above weekly SMA20 (2.0028) I see reversal in place and potential test of 0270. Below 2.0 my outlook still bearish.
A.
11:00 GMT
Update. I got my daily quota: +35pips. Long @0100, Pft bkd 0135. Good Luck to you!Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7857&stc=1&d=1188379789
Pound Bullishness...till rates decision !! Well guyz ,entered a long on Pound @0150 , Pound and Euro Bullishness are INEVITABLE , especially the upcoming couple of weeks , Interest rate decisions are the key to all traders right now , SO GO WITH THE MARKET , However DOUBTS ALWAYS come in the week that preceed interest rate decision to re-ask ourselves , would the Feds keep interest rates or a CUT is on the move , So volatility will be outstanding , with range trading and hedging strategies to rule , For me it doesn't matter , I am in a Bullish stance for the Pound till rates decision . GOOD LUCKhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7918&d=1188561836
median line analysis
as refer to the last week post here is the followup chart.
resveral zone activated ?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7919&stc=1&d=1188571878
price moving down from the reverse zone as compare to last week
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7942&stc=1&d=1188909248
GBPUSD: Sept 3-7, 2007.
This week BoE & ECB will play their cards. Our outlook still bullish, but looking for a potential range. Buy dips is the best strategy, but go short if possible for you.
Pair is still inside in a daily/4 hours rising channel, supporting our bullish outlook, but a RSI negative divergence in 4 hour channel, forming a triangle, shows a lack of momentum to go up.
If breaks 0270, 0400 is the target. If breaks below 2.0, 1.9850 is the target.
Adrian
http://my-fx-journal.blogspot.com/
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7928&stc=1&d=1188698412
trading my 2.0270-2.00 range
Hi all,
I am still trading my 2.0270-2.00 range. Yesterday I was long @ 0047. Why? Weekly/Daily MA20 at 0035/43 and hourly/15 min studies extremely oversold... and I just was following the major trend... I got some pips before get home!
For the rest of the week I am still in the same range. I see the top somewhere in 0275-0300 zone... so, I will be bearish if failure around there, or a break below 2.0.
Yes, I know, the LT trend is bullish... and Central Banks are playing their cards... I see a potential trading range until Bernanke shows his cards...
Of course, a consolidated break above 0275 could push spot to 2.05... but it seems -at this point of time- a lack of momentum for that... (Everything is possible in this market!)
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=7992&stc=1&d=1189041096
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-14 08:56 编辑 ]
GBPUSD
Trade signals:
Sell 2.0131, stop 2.0205, target 2.0020
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/4376/gbph4ap9.gif
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/617/gbpd1ad6.gif
gbp/usd
hi
i think that target gbp/usd is until 2.0390
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8004&stc=1&d=1189067294
04:15 GMT
I would like to share with you my 4- chart. I see a rising price trend but a downtrend channel in the RSI. That tell you something?Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8023&stc=1&d=1189138634
gbp/ usd down trnd .to 1.9960
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8147&stc=1&d=1189967379
gbp/usd down trand . to 1.9960
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8148&stc=1&d=1189967649
gbp/usd
gbp/usd down trand to 1.9960
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8149&stc=1&d=1189967847
gbp/yen is flying
hi all gbp/yen is up with 300 or even 700 p t1 237 t2 240
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8277&stc=1&d=1190467169 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8278&stc=1&d=1190467183 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8279&stc=1&d=1190467220