Look at this Daily GBP/USD Trendline.
This was drawn 3 days ago. Look where today's top was. http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/cool.gif
Like Magic
Sledge
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13083&thumb=1&d=1207359401
Gbp/usd
This pair broke out of its channel in a bullish stance on 4/17/08
4/18/08 it closed above it and has been testing the channel top ever since. The channel is the parallel blue lines on the chart below.
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14119&thumb=1&d=1209606478
GBPUSD: Week of April 7-11
Hi everyone,
Checking how market closed, Cable needs at least to close above the daily 20sma to add momentum to a bullish scenario. isn't?
A good option for me is going short below 1.9993 (daily 20sma) or below 1.9916 (weekly 20sma). Support at 1.9784 (daily 65sma), 1.9750 (triple bottom area).
Key resistances at 2.0119/43 area (150,180,200 SMAs). Weekly down-trend line at 2.0240 area. We need a breakout soon in either direction...
best, A.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13086&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207363003
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-15 08:56 编辑 ]
next week movement
Hi all long time no see
Range between 1.9800-2.0150.break below 1.9760 will continue our donwtrend.Gud luck
MACD=Very Bearish RSI= Bearish STOCH= Very Bullish .... so.. 2 vs 1 = Bearish
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13088&stc=1&d=1207391538
hmm
still wanna bouncing befroe down to below 1.9800..the market wanna trappe some traders...if u sell/short the price will up..if u BUY/Long the price will down..plss becarefull..better the price ending whta the level he wants..then finding good price for entry sell/short then holding...trust me...dont make mistake...
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13128&stc=1&d=1207564369
gbpusd technical update
see comments on chart
target 1.8900 level and 1.8670 level fibo extension
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13362&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1208156407
black day u could be rt, as above 9923-30 it could go anywhere.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13548&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1208448190
Will cable post a new high of 2.1500/2.2000 during this year(2008)?
Cable is in its consolidation face, and is consolidating above 1.9500.
If it continue above 1.9500 during this Quarter, it break above 2.0400 and move toward 2.2000. Move will be as fast as no one can imagine.
A break below 1.9500 will be targeting toward 1.8900 and this area might be proved good support for move toward 2.0650.
Best regards,
Aslam Chaudhary
m16ch1@yahoo.com
NOTE:-
THIS IS JUST A IDEA NOT A TRADE RECOMENDATION
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13960&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209306045
Cable is trying to become stable between the area 1.9600 - 1.9700 for break above 2.0060 and then move toowards 2.0200 and 2.0397. and perhaps break high 0f 2007 and then print a new high .Move will be so fast.
For this move Quarterly closing needed above 2.0060.
_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-
Best regards,
Aslam Chaudhary
m16ch1@yahoo.com
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14087&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209569258
Will Cable remain dangerous for Bull and Bear?
The biggest terrorist of the currency market?
These days cable is doing nothing except to hit stops.
Cable is f.ucking from both sides in a very well manner, Its doing nothing but doing what it have to.
In my view upside is preferable. Buy dip is attractive untill cable holding above broken trendline with stop but stop a few pips is not a sufficent. stop must be well. Its objective may be 2.0650 and 2.0850 at least then breach of high of 2007. If give way 2.0060(Yearly Pivot Point) on Quarterly closing bases and i hope it will be done during current Quarter.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14172&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209724305
I see a good shorting opportunity coming up. The medium term Delta point 4 high appears to be in, although this is not absolutely certain. The 5 low point is due in early June. Price is already in a down sloping channel. I think a sell off may start next week as a shorter term Delta high is on May 12.
http://i31.tinypic.com/2vt2ruv.jpg
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14290&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210025003
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14291&stc=1&d=1210026530
gbp/usd weekly chart
hey everyone- thanks for the screen capture tip.
Okay - in the chart below you can see the a-b-c-d pattern this pair is treading along.http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m209/bertmaple/gbpusd.jpg
I don't like that GBPUSD has stalled before reaching closer to 1.94. This likely means the market isn't watching it as a significant technical level. Holding off on their pair for now. If we can get a successful test and some upside push off a test of 1.94, I'll consider a short-term/smaller sized long trade. If we get a break to the downside, I'm loading up short.
What does everyone think of EURGBP. Excuse my chart, it looks like something an archetect would draw. I am wondering whether this is a good reversal, and I barely missed out on a short limit entry position a little while back at 0.7960. May try to get a small short in again, but need better prices. Fundamentals certainly don't support the short side, so I'll keep everything in that direction small for the time being.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14402&stc=1&d=1210259905
GBPUSD
This pair is still in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. seemingly undecided as to which direction it wants, just drifting lower as it has no demonstrated motivation to do otherwise....
It may take a bit to turn it northwards as the long term macd's are still dropping..
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14462&stc=1&d=1210378072
Looks like the Pound has bounced off of the lower trend line of its current downward channel. Super strong PPI and exports holding up have brought the odds way down of a 25 bps cut by the BoE. If CPI data comes in just as strong, sterling bulls might try and take it up through 1.97. The only thing to stop it is employment data at the end of the week. Unless U.S. retail sales surprises, which is unlikely, with most Americans just cashing their fiscal stimulus checks.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14512&stc=1&d=1210586055
gbpusd daily analysis
nice daily set up with a doji
target 1 : high shi channel H4 (1.9750 area (= rfibo 61.8%)
target 2 : extension fibo 161.8% + double top (2.039x area)
see chart enclosed
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14631&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210799421
Carry Trade Unwind. Can it happen again? What Could be the Trigger? The rapid unwind of carry trades on February 27 is still on the mind of many traders and some of us are concerned that something like that may happen again in the near future. Last February, traders blamed a sell-off in the Chinese stock market for the unexpected unwind of carry trades but no one dares to discuss what will be the trigger for the next unwind.
I would like to challenge the visitors of this forum to come up with possible events that have the potential to trigger a significant unwind of carry trades.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6450&stc=1&d=1177438568 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6451&stc=1&d=1177438601
For a short term trade idea, the USDJPY looks poised to test the upper end of the recent range near 119.00 as suggested by the triple bottom at 118.22/26. A break above the 119.00 level exposes Fibo resistance at the 78.6% of 119.84-117.60 at 119.36.
Regarding the bigger picture and the potential unwinding of the carry trade: It is important to understand why the carry trade is being implemeted in the first place. Notice that over the last 5 years, stock markets have gone up, gold and silver have gone up, yen crosses (carry trade) have gone up. Everything is moving together as liquidity expands and contracts. The carry trade is just a tool that is being used by investors to express their willingness to take on risk. No one event is going to change the bullish mood of investors. The carry trade will continue until the universal optimism that we are experiencing now dissipates.
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Jamie, couldnt agree more. yet the shot across the bow in sub prime mortgages i think has placed a scare. I dont think the carry can disappear very quickly but it leaves to question, Who initiates at these lofty levels, I can understand smart money stepping up at the bargain prices seen Mar 5th. The open intrest is climbing on dips according to the margin traded contracts at least in gbp/jpy that i watch.
Is this not trouble clearly laying the foundations for another perhaps more meaningful deeper correction, to flush out the late longs. The Long Term Investors clearly havent been affected by the last move lower, should they not want to better their accounts if they are still bullish and force the weak holders to liquidate while buying at an even cheaper discount?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6455&stc=1&d=1177503867 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6456&stc=1&d=1177504285
Yes sir, topping is a tough business, will be nervous like a cat in a room filled with rocking chairs.
Yen looks like a classic head and shoulders, which means very little to professional money but they sure respected that channel top, clearly have some perimeters to pay attention to
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6460&stc=1&d=1177507876 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6461&stc=1&d=1177508093
i also agree with you...the sub prime mess is likely just the first story of many that will come out of the closet. still, the bullishness that pervades the stock market and the willingness to take on risk is so strong that the sub-prime debacle has been tossed aside. that said, there will be a tipping point (there always is). ultimately, i think that gbpjpy will come down to the lower channel line on this weekly chart. whether the turn will come before 241.49 is impossible to say although the turn should come close to the upper channel line (which was breached slightly in january.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6457&stc=1&d=1177505934
http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/644/adszio3.png
USDJPY seems on its way to 122.17, 01/29/07 high The USD/JPY failed to benefit from the carry trade renaissance that occurred over the last 8 weeks. This happened primarily because interest rate differentials between Japan and the US were shrinking at a pace never seen since 2001. Still in the past 4 week those circumstances have clearly changed. The most recent economic data for the world’s largest economy pushed the interest rate differential again in favor of the USD and we think the greenback could gain 200 pips against the yen over the next 20 days.
Trade suggestion:
Long at 120.00
Target at 122.00
Stop at 118.00
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6548&stc=1&d=1178572810
Gold falls 16 bucks and Dow 147 pts. Feb 27th Deja Vu? Can it Happen Again?
Do you think we could see a massive carry trade unwind and JPY gains in the week ahead. Or do you think (like me) that this was just a small correction?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6565&stc=1&d=1178833166
Trading Idea to Scalp 40 pips in the USD/JPY
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged and the USD/JPY seems poised to test the January 29 high at 122.17.
Go Long @ 121.80 limit
Profit Target @ 122.17
Stop @ 120.95
I think this is a high probability setup and I'm ready to trade it with a decent position size. However, things can easily go wrong. Let me know what could possible deny this trading setup. A break below 121.50? Carry Unwind? BoJ rate hike?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6762&stc=1&d=1181654826
Go long USDJPY @ 122.01 limit
Our previous USDJPY trade worked out just fine and since the same fundamental factors remain on play we think we can do it again. Over the past week, the interest rate differential between the US and Japan has widened significantly and dollar strength will probably continue. However, I recommend waiting for a small retracement since the dollar looks a bit expensive.
Go long @ 122.01 limit
Profit Target @ 122.44
Stop @ 121.70
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6778&stc=1&d=1181741060
Usd /Yen
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Seriously Breaking Out ! ....
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