I attached the 15 minute chart for the USD/JPY which shows an impulsive decline supported by the triangle in the 4th wave. It appears to be breaking out of that triangle now. If that happens, then it will complete a 5 wave decline. This means there's a high probability the pair is on its way to a new low now.
American-T
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13298&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207937091
I tried posting these charts earlier this morning but there were technical difficulties in the forum. So these charts are a few hours old.
Bottom line: it appears the dollar has finally given way and is in its way to new lows. The USD/CHF and USD/JPY offer the best opportunities to get short from what I can see (See their 45min charts below).
American-T
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13776&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1208879666
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13777&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1208879704
Below is a 1hr chart of the USD/JPY which shows a wave 2 completed and a wave 3 about to get underway (probably in the European session). Notice how the prior wave iv and the 50% put a pretty tight cap on any further gains from the pair. Stochastics are also heavily diverging to the downside on the 1 hour and smaller time frames. I'm expecting this pair to head much lower, and soon.
American-T
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13840&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209003808
Now I may getting too aggressive here, but when something is so clear like this is I have to pay attention to it. Here's a 5 minute chart that shows a clear textbook 5 wave decline in the USD/JPY from earlier today. Due to its position and size, it's impossible for this to be the tail end of a correction. So it must be a resumption of the larger trend. And the larger trend is down.
This pair should be headed lower, soon.
American-T
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13841&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209003945
OK Dave.. So... I had to laugh at myself.. Seems I keep getting on the wrong side! Here is what I am seeing.. Just a tad more upside before the Great big Mac Daddy short back to 95..
Now.. Wouldn't it be a better short from 105 or 106? I'm taking my little pips now for the big run later.. I'm just waiting for that 8SMA to crack.. and then the 15 low must crack.. What do you think? Did you ever watch the videos from the Link that I sent to you?
PS.. I'm trailing a new short entry just under these lows. Nothing like a trailing entry! I have been considering a new long but.. It is just to close to that reversal area for me.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14161&stc=1&d=1209697438
View for upcomming week.
New weekly range of 105.69 High to Low of 103.20
The next 5 days could be choppy as it just finished a 5 week run up on the weekly chart. Daily chart shows that we are getting back into the prior range from February. We are getting primed for another fall. 108ish may be a streatch for a new high but.. That is the Prior high of that range. That is also where the 180 / 200 SMA is at. It may not happen in the comming week.. but it is comming. What goes up, always comes back down. I'm watching for a retrace back down to 102 to 100. A drop from 106 back to 100 would be a nice trade.
Coments
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14239&stc=1&d=1209917642
USDJPY daily chart
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14256&stc=1&d=1209949021
Indeed Fannie Mae results could be ominous..!
Terri..... question......
Do you feel that .500 is more of a resistance/support generally than .618....... or just in this example......?
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I adjusted my chart a bit to reflect similar to the one Terri posted(I think she has a secret approach.hehe)
On my chart, the long term Macds are not falling, which leads me to believe that this is a short term retrace of the up move.
I am looking forward to seeing where support will appear..
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14306&stc=1&d=1210080741
I am posting a 240 minute chart.. I just had to know why the price moved up a bit.LOL
and the chart shows the Fib level.... .786
What I see happening is that this will make a lower high and then start back down...
That is not written in stone..... just my impression from the behavior of the long term Macd and the long term stoch.
I will be quite interested in seeing how you follow this..... using whatever tools you are going to apply.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14311&stc=1&d=1210088755
USDJPY daily
We have a couple lower lows and lower highs and a test of the trend line. To confirm the down trend I would need to see a lower low and then a lower high.. So far we are seeing only that price 'might' want to go lower, this needs confirmation of a lower high.... as of now. the move lower is only a retrace of the uptrend...
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14460&stc=1&d=1210377081
Meanwhile, we've seen USDJPY turn back from the confluence of resistance at the 100 SMA and the 76.4% fib of 108.60-95.71. I see near-term support around 103.70/104, but more substantial levels loom around 101.80/102.18.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14305&stc=1&d=1210078979
Comments from Fed member Evans that housing will remain a drag is weighing down the pair, which has been reversing after running into resistance at 105.20 the 50% Fibo of 114.65-95.71,with 102.12-50 Day SMA as support.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14524&stc=1&d=1210600927
The pair's turn from the 100 SMA and the 76.4% fib of 108.60 - 95.71 was pretty decisive in my eyes, and I think there are additional declines to come. The next major level of support is at 102.16, and below that, 100.60 (first chart).
One of the biggest reasons I think carry trades like USDJPY will take a hit is the turn in the DJIA (second chart). The bullish sentiment in the equity markets that we saw play out during March and April has run out of steam, and the DJIA turned on a dime at the 200 SMA while the May high of 13,132 ran headlong into former support.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14525&stc=1&d=1210603452 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14526&stc=1&d=1210603503
Hi Late trader,
Yes, this morning we saw USDJPY test the 100 SMA, but I would not consider that a break above, especially since we have the 50% fib of 114.65 - 95.71 at 105.14 and the May 5, 6, and 7 highs just above 105.50. As long as USDJPY does not break above this zone of resistance, my bias remains in favor of a turn lower.
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