I beg to differ on the Japanese fundamentals part...data out of Japan hasn't really had an impact in a looooooong time. The only factors I can see possibly coming in to play are policy actions by the Bank of Japan, which are unlikely to happen any time soon. Other than that, the only real contributors to yen strength have been bouts of risk aversion.
Looking at GBPJPY on a short time frame (20 min), the pair appears to be holding within a descending triangle as trendline resistance at approx 216.15 keeps price contained. This pattern tends to have bearish implications, so we'll see if this precedes a break below 213.50.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10400&stc=1&d=1199709267
With the recent break above falling trendline resistance, yes, I agree that there is upside potential in the near-term. However, I think GBPJPY will have a tough time breaking through the 217 level where we have the confluence of the 23.6% fib of 228.36 - 213.58 and another falling trendline.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10431&stc=1&d=1199773805
clauswu, sorry for the delayed response. With my overall bias on GBPJPY to the downside, I'm not jumping to get into long positions of any sort unless it's a glaringly obvious move. On a short-term timeframe (20 min), it looks like we may have a bit of a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the neckline at approx 214.50. A break below this level targets 213.50.
Edit: GBPJPY made a break below noted support literally within 2 seconds of my original post, and I do still think we'll see the pair test the 1/3 and 1/4 lows near 213.50. However, if we see a bounce from these levels towards 217.50/218, I see this as an opportunity to enter a short position.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10469&stc=1&d=1199871006
Well, you started my night off with a good laugh, that's for sure (not the analysis...but your initial commentary).
Overall, I agree jsgehrke. Underlying support 213.00/50 is pretty solid, and I just noticed trendline support that dates all the way back to 10/2003 (there was one false break in July 2005). The case can definitely be made for a rebound from these levels. I suppose the BOE decision could change my opinion about this, but I'd set an initial target of 222.35, secondary target of 226.81/227.85. This scenario could take a bit of time to play out, but I do imagine it would be done by the end of the first quarter.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10496&stc=1&d=1199948252
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10608&d=1200332480 Quote:
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10609&d=1200333610
probable bearish to wave c and then bullish
Thought I would make an attempt at an analysis with the pair breaking below support at 210.00 this afternoon I would say that resistance is now around 211.00. A short trade with an entry point around 210.90 just below this resistance level should be profitable and could be rode all the way to a possible lower level below the 200.00 level.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10659&stc=1&d=1200430217
jsgehrke, I've attached a chart noting the fib level you talked about in your post. Given the consolidations we're seeing in GBPJPY, GBPUSD, and USDJPY, I see some bullish potential for GBPJPY, but not so much that I'm aching to go long. If anything, I'll be looking to sell any major rallies...much more of a wait-and-see approach. From a risk/reward standpoint, I like GBPUSD long (short-term). A break below 1.95 is an obvious sign that I'm wrong...Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10745&stc=1&d=1200657707
It appeared the low due at 7:00 ET was early, so I bought at 208.57 and exited for +50 pips because of the short term over bought situation, and a possible bounce down from resistance at 209.24. I generally go for 100 pips. Maybe another buy opportunity in a few hours.
http://i26.tinypic.com/28iz4oo.jpg
http://i26.tinypic.com/ehf2ax.jpg
http://i27.tinypic.com/2qbrl8z.jpg
Gbpjpy
short from today
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10928&stc=1&d=1201262689
Gbpjpy
short sale
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10932&stc=1&d=1201275566
Gbpjpy
This short shows a bit of the thinking behind multi time frame
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10935&stc=1&d=1201277989
Excellent short opportunity after yesterdays stellar runup.
Rad
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10940&stc=1&d=1201281036
Fib Pattern
Sometimes these give a clue to what is coming and sometimes they are a waste of time
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10948&stc=1&d=1201284314
here is the daily chart with the pattern on it
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10950&stc=1&d=1201285441
couple more looks
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10951&stc=1&d=1201289339 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10952&stc=1&d=1201289349
LL LH HH HL is an indicator in the software, I have it set to calculate automatically... There are a couple settings I can use but the auto seems to be preferred... That same indicator will put the Fib calculations. I will post an example
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10959&stc=1&d=1201301056
Here is a Pyrapoint Chart, Pyrapoint often gives a clue as to resistance points
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10963&stc=1&d=1201309520
Harmonics
Some people are able to use Harmonics to assist their trading, similar to Murrey Math, feeling that the 1.000 is good for major support and resistance...
I have not used the system to any great extent myself, but I like to keep this chart as a guide as to what may be occurring.....
Hopefully some ideas will appear that will benefit all of us....
I have read through many of the posts in this thread and there are some great insights.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10981&stc=1&d=1201376220
Point of Control
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10995&stc=1&d=1201476107
Maratha
This volume chart may confirm your thoughts re bearishness....
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10996&stc=1&d=1201482062
Looks like the bear has been making his move.....
Attached is a volume based chart so may be hard to reconcile to a minute chart
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10999&stc=1&d=1201488450
I am wondering if this has the qualities of Head and Shoulders.....
What do others think..?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11001&stc=1&d=1201494832
This first chart is of Point of Control.. looks like price is heading towards Friday's POC
The second shows Harmonics, I feel it is going to blast through the .250
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11002&stc=1&d=1201496324 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11003&stc=1&d=1201496332
http://i30.tinypic.com/1z3xwzc.jpg
Big Mike, I'm not sure where your stop was or where you got in (212?), but I do think there is some upside potential for GBPJPY to 213.60, especially if it holds above trendline support around 210.95. However, given my downside bias for this pair, I'm simply waiting for a good opportunity to go short.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11014&stc=1&d=1201586284
wedge forming here
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11018&stc=1&d=1201624445
For pattern seekers
I posted this in here by mistake, and by the time I realied it, everyone would have received the notification....
I apologise
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11019&stc=1&d=1201624934