Breakout to 208-211?
Notice the breakdown point was 211 and the projected breakout target is 211.09. Initial targets 203, 205.50, 208.
I have a small long open at 200.575.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12833&stc=1&d=1206637386
nemesis approaching?
The daily candle on cable, a gravestone doji, I think, looks very ominous for the bulls. Dollar/yen is still firmly in a downtrend and this mini-cycle looks ready to come off its top node.
Therefore, the downside risk is now considerable, with 98.50 dollar/yen and 198.50 gbpjpy lower trendline being critical lower pivots.
On the attached 4h chart, the possibility of an approaching nemesis can be seen. http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/eek.gif
Either way, a larger move looks likely and I favour the downside if the green lines hold.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12849&stc=1&d=1206668648
Time To Catch Up Move??
There is an ascending wedge on the 4hr chart. Might be a good place to catch an up move soon.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12845&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206663220
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12875&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206721053
trading tips
**************
to enter any trade i need price action usdjpy+gbpusd in correlation with gbpjpy- then our gbpyjpy is getting boosted
if any divergence difficult to define which currency will overperform the other one - therefore i prefer to stay aside and wait for better opportunity
kr
jerAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12850&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206692498
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12878&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206733556
GBPJPY daily
three looks
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12897&stc=1&d=1206756281 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12898&stc=1&d=1206756784
Here is a 240 minute chart, and what I see on it is that price has made a lower high and that we are into a downtrend..... and that would probably be confirmed by the lower highs in the indicators....
The Bline, the 35 10, 1 stochastic in the bottom chart (white) is moving south...., the Macds are stair stepping down, indicating that the Macds on higher time frames are also going lower.
In the top chart, the stochastics are all turning down.....
and what I make of this is. we will have to wait, if trading this time frame for price to retrace and then start down again before we make an entry......
However, now that we have established trend on this time frame, we can look lower to see if there is a short available....
Next I will post a one hour chart and determine what may be available on that
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12910&stc=1&d=1206832117
On the one hour chart we see that the Bline (white) is close to the bottom and that the other stochs are right at the bottom...... and that in the Macd chart, the short term macd is moving up whiloe the two long term Macd's are staying dowm.. indicating that on higher time frames price is moving lower...
IOn the 2X char we can see that the fast stoch is falling and that the long term stochs are also falling, that pink section indicates good distance between the longer term stochs......
Price may have bottomed and could well be starting to retrace. we will wait until we see that the retrace has ended before going short.
I could go down another time frame, but I think you can get the idea as to what I am going to be looking for..
I will wait until the stochastics have climbed up and then rolled over to the downside. and also watch for the fast Macd to start moving lower..... once you catch on to this you will find it to be quite vivide and easy to trade with...
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12911&stc=1&d=1206833126
Well, for now, the range seems to be tighter...197-201, consolidation is good for a nice breakout...so, let's wait and watch! http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12921&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206932414
gbpjpy daily - updated technical analysis
Hi all
no main change since my last week post.
Monday was choppy
I expect more move to come on coming days
see updated technical analysis below :
tp1: 189 level (138.2% fibo extension)
tp2: 187 level (161.8% fibo extension)
I expect to get these levels met latest April, 15th
comments:
All consolidation should be used ONLY to re-enter short.
No single chance for the bulls (sorry.....)
(from time ema 50 is not broken in daily - we are bearish .... and to - be rich -... be short -))))
KR
JEROME
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12937&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206992985
milestone ahead of us
Hi all
thanks to all who replied to my post a few days ago, sorry to post until today but i have been busy lately
there has been a chart i have been looking at this morning. i'll post it for you to see
it has a downtrend resistance line that comes from Feb 26th @ 213.48 and March 12th @ 207.97. at this moment this line is @ 200.51.
there is a 61.8% fibo retracement line at 202.04 and also a resistance line that comes from the past two tops at 201.78 and 201.76
i wonder if the actual rally has enough momentum to break all these.....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12954&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207057748
chart update
heres a update of the chart i posted before, and i also added a chart of USD/JPY of aproximately the same period, that is, charts start just before march 14-16 big fall.
im definitively not sure about going short, what worries me now is that, even GBP/JPY has some resistance to break in front of them. USD/JPY has just made a clear break of a ascending triangle, ans that is encouraging to USD/JPY bulls.
maybe try to scalp some pips in the short term, now that all the oscilators on the hourly charts are showing big numbers.
any opinion is welcome
happy trading
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12956&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207061799
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12957&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207062091
last hurdle in the short term for bulls
i managed to get out of the past short trade with 18 pips, for me 8 hours not showing if it was going down or up was enough to wait for a clearer signal.
now not only USD/JPY has made a claer break on a ascending triangle, but GBP/JPY also.
imho this can go up all the way to 206, but as the oscilators i use are in overbought level i may wait for the pair to drop a little before going long.
will they drop a little?? http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12984&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207148851
gbpjpy H4 technical update
see comment on chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12971&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207096986
technical update g/y
see comments on chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12987&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207151427
see comments on chart
usdjpy+gbpusd =overbought + signal overbought condition in H4
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13011&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207175480
larger view of 8hr chart
after seeing what happened yesterday with the dow and the nikkei, imho i dont expect the downtrend line coming from 228.37 and 213.48, at the moment at 204.5 to hold for long.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12985&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207150021
Gone short at 203.73
as soon as the Jobless claims came out i took a short.
seems that the downtrend line is holding, just a wick came trough
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13035&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207228198
ahead of the NFP day
I still have my short open, so tell me about scary! lol
A lot of things i see tells me this has to go down, but a strong NFP number can be devastating, so this is going to be a long night
heres a update of the chart with the current downtrend, in a wider view of a daily chart instead of a 8hr chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13050&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207257177
g/y Daily technical update
see comments en chart
all occured as expected ...
kr
jerome
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13062&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207317214
This image is from 2 Screens
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13136&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207577792
Wave A Done!!!
Looks like we are Wave A of 4 has ended. Wave B down should take us to around the 199 area. This will be a good place to catch the C Wave up to around 211.
Had 2 Long positions:
1 @ 196.00 - Still Open. Stop @ Breakeven
1 @ 197.00 - Closed @ 203.91 = 691 pips
Will open another long around the 199 area.
Good Luck All.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13080&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207356899