In a longterm uptrend, price periodically retraces/takes a break from making higher highs and higher lows. This is indicated by crossovers in indicators such as MACD and RSI. New traders often mistake these pauses for trend reversals and place short/selling trades to take advantage of falling prices. They often stay too long and lose their small gains.
A better strategy would be to stand aside and wait for the counter trend to end and rejoin when the trend resumes.
Usually, the point where the trend resumes is, you guessed it, a Fibonacci level. Using our indicators to show the weakening counter trend by looking for double bottoms or divergence in oscillators or rising histogram and MACD lines are things you can look for as price hits a Fib line.
A reversal candlestick pattern at a Fib line and trend line break are the final pieces of the puzzle of when to rejoin the trend.
Look at the following AUD/CHF chart to see how all of these clues fit together.
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Good use of Fib lines on your chart. However, I would recommend looking at Daily charts to get a feel for the trend direction and to locate significant fibonacci levels. The Daily trend is up and it would be risky to trade against daily trend.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10233&stc=1&d=1199277878
The candle is not closed so we would need to wait until 5 pm New York time to see where the candle closes as a fullbodied bearish candle or a long wick.
We are a few pips above the upward sloping trendline with RSI and Stochastics approaching oversold territory which is lending strength to the 78.6% retrace.
Given the length and age of the trend channel, I would not count it dead unless we have a full 100% of the current upswing and closing full-bodied bearish candles beneath the trendline.
One may give up 200 pips initially, but such a break would yield 4-5 times that. This would make up for the caution.
See the attached chartAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10301&stc=1&d=1199395711
EURUSD - Heading South ?
Since staging an inverted hammer on the monthly chart at historic highs I have been watching this pair closely for a reversal. The pair has now reversed from the 61.8 of the entire downward move from the high. A multi year top may be in place at 1.4966 ! Or we are atleast due for some kind of a down move....
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10199&stc=1&d=1199169367
usd/cad
i think usd/cad will continue to move up until it reaches 1.0000, since it has struggled there in the past, which is also near the 35 MA. if 1.0000 doesnt act as strong resistance i believe price will move to retest the 38.2% resistance at 1.0192.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10226&stc=1&d=1199251035
usd/chf
i believe the usd/chf has just hit the bottom of a channel and a support line. i believe it will make its way to the 38.2% line before reversing. if it breaks through the 38.2% line then i believe it will move about 100 pips more to the upside reaching the top of the channel before possibly reversing.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10227&stc=1&d=1199252039
eur/chf
on the eur/chf i believe there are 3 patterns that tell us we will be heading towards the 38.2% line. the red lines represent the triangle pattern. if you look at the rsi on the bottom it has formed a head and shoulders pattern that has broken below its neckline. i believe the triangle pattern will break in the next day downwards towards the 1.6300 line. since the measurement is about 500 pips i believe that helps to strengthen the head and shoulders pattern, marked by the blue lines. the only line lacking now is the line from the top of the second shoulder to the neckline, which i believe the triangle pattern will help form. the measurement for the head and shoulders is also 500 pips so i believe if that breaks through its neckline then we are looking at 1.5700-1.5800 at least.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10228&stc=1&d=1199252762
mr mcleod
i just finished the trading the majors course you teach and looking over the charts i found eur chf rsi fade possibility i made an entry order for when it comes back then i noticed
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10299&stc=1&d=1199393986
then i saw on a daily chart that the pair has peicered the 78% fibo of 1.6297-1.6726 or so area's does this mean they could be heading for a full retracement?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10300&stc=1&d=1199394333
Seasoned traders are familiar with the risks as you are, but we have many new traders who do not have the skill set or experience to take on that risk. I too, use Elliott Wave but you must agree that it is an advanced approach not to be lightly attempted.
Get a room of Elliotticians looking at one chart and no two can agree on the wave and cycle count. So more for the benefit of new traders reading the forum I usually warn them about the risks of counter trend trading.
This positive dialogue is good because so many new traders lose money because they do not know what they are getting themselves into when they take certain types of trades.
Thanks for your posts and your charts. Please continue to share your your trading knowledge which benefits this community.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10298&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199392453
Nzd/usd
Here is my long term outlook for NZDUSD
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10355&stc=1&d=1199486943
Aud/usd
Here is my long term outlook for AUD/USD
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10356&stc=1&d=1199487054
Possible short term usdcad
I think this may be unfolding right now in USDCAD.... there was alot of thrust upwards in wave 1 which leads me to believe the current "B" wave might exceed the previous wave 5 high before heading lower. Given that "B" waves are comonly expanded, I expect price to hit the 123.6 to 138.2 range, or even possibly 161.8 or a little higher.... You just never know with a "B" wave.. The best way to trade it would be to catch the "C" wave so watch for the "B' wave top http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
When Price breaks through a trendline it usually rally's back to test it http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10429&stc=1&d=1199771607
eur usd
as you can see from the daily chart i believe we are in a sideways trend and presently in a wedge pattern. the rsi is very close to 70 and is also in a triangle pattern, both are in red trendlines. also we are very close to the recent high. even though the rsi has broken its trendline upward i do believe that the trend will make its way down. we just need proof, which will be if it breaks the wedge's support line. if it does that then the measurement is about 500 pips starting around 1.4750 with a target around 1.4250. the fib retracement starts at 1.3350 and goes to 1.4900. 38.2% is around 1.4320. i believe that area will be a good place to buy again. if price reaches the 1.4320 area then that will for a double pattern. if price breaks through that support then it will have completed the double pattern and look for profits about 500 pips. if not, then we will look for another test of the 1.4900 area. i also drew in fibs from start of uptrend at 1.2485 to 1.4900 area. the smaller drawn fibs and bigger drawn fibs show convergence of 38.2% and 61.8% around 1.3950, which would = about 400 pips from break of double pattern. so it will probably stop around that area. and i believe that will be a strong support, stronger than 1.4300 area to break.
would appreciate feedback what people think of this analysis.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10626&stc=1&d=1200355629
http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/6082/78232598uh6.gif
There's Gold in the Land Down Under
Australia, the home of the Crocodile Hunter, the Wiggles, and the beloved kangaroo has another national treasure that doe not star Nicholas Cage; GOLD.
Yes, behind South Africa, Australia is the second largest producer of the precious yellow metal. With Gold at historic, all-time highs and closing in on $900.00 an ounce, the Australian dollar seems to be in perfect position to rise.
A tight labor market and wage inflation could see the RBA raise rates or take a hawkish stance.
The meteoric rise of AUD/USD from the August lows of .7686 to a hair shy of the .9400 level in November has been tempered by two months of correction to a low of .8552. This low corresponds to the 50% retracement level of the Aug-November upmove.
The old high of .9396 would be a possible target followed by a 127% extension target of .9863.
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We can see the follow through and breakout above the wave 1 high of .8853. Usually, price retests the breakout point before moving higher. That may give us a chance to enter if we missed the 50% fibo entry at .8704.
MACD has angle and separation which bodes well for a continuation of this move.
When a trader can line up the fundamentals, as described in the previous post, with Fibonacci, the results can be powerful.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10521&stc=1&d=1199987115
Traditionally, the EUR/USD has been considered the ANTI-DOLLAR. This usually means that when U.S. fundamentals are poor, the Euro goes up.
With a dismal retail sales number, continued losses due to subprime in banking stocks like Citibank, and the high price of crude oil, the EUR/USD is experiencing new strength.
Yes, this is a Fibonacci forum, but we can't, as traders, stick our heads in the sand concerning fundamentals. These fundamentals that drove up the EUR/USD and drove down the dollar in 2007 have not changed going into 2008.
Our job as professional traders is to identify the Dominant Trend and enter trades in the direction of that trend. Trading what we see is important.
Many an account has gone up in smoke trying to short this BIG DOG.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10658&stc=1&d=1200426854
EUR/JPY Comeback Trail
As the Bernanke and company have cut rates an additional 50 basis points to head off the growing signs of recession. The Dow and EUR/JPY have taken a dive.
As more liquidity is pumped into market, risk aversion may subside opening the door to investors moving back into equities at these depressed levels.
The EUR/JPY has a strong correlation with the Dow Jones Industrial average. Both have moved up strongly from sharp bottoms and retraced to fib levels.
See the attached chart
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11047&stc=1&d=1201723078
Possible Bank of England Rate Cut could validate Fib Resistance
GBP/USD has been in a down trend channel since November of last year. The bursting of their housing bubble is bringing the UK economy to recession's doorstep.
But higher food and energy prices raise the spector of inflation. Caught between the proverbial "rock and a hard place" The Bank of England is faced with the greatest economic challenge since 1992. Raising rates to head off inflation or lowering rates to sustain growth.
Technically, GBP/USD has rebounded to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 4 hr chart swing from the 1.9941 high to the 1.9625 low.
We are also sitting on the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the Daily chart 2.1164 swing high to the 1.9346 swing low.
With the Bank of England decision just 3 days away, expect some sideways movement going into the announcement on February 7th at 8:00 am New York time.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11149&stc=1&d=1202156490 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11150&stc=1&d=1202156501
Using longer time frames gives better risk/reward ratios and reduces the risk of being stopped out prematurely by random market noise.
A 1 hour chart with 40 days of data displayed is the lowest time frame that I would consult.
Typically a week to 10 days, depending on market volatility.
A closing candle near support provides the best risk to reward. A break of a trendline with a closing (full bodied) candle (not doji).
Oscillators provide excellent signals in the direction of the Daily trend.
See the attached examplesAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11159&stc=1&d=1202164502 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11160&stc=1&d=1202164807
Double top at 78.6% Fibonacci Level of the 1.4982 (high)-1.4312 (low) swing warned of lower prices to follow.
Prices dropped to 50% Fibonacci and halted for now.
The ISM (Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index) dropped to 41.9 in January compared to December's reading of 54.4. Economists were expecting a reading of 53.The number was the weakest since October 2001;
If the ISM number is less than 50, industry is expected to contract. The service sector makes up about 90% of the U.S. economy.
US Treasuries (bonds) rallied as investors bought these instruments to lock in yield.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11184&stc=1&d=1202242093
Those are nice charts. Thanks for posting them.
That looks like a pretty aggressive bounce from the .382 retracement. AUD/USD looks positioned to take out the old high very soon.
The daily trend is up and we tested the 50% Fibo on the daily as well. That long wick indicates good buying because price did not stay there too long.
AUD/USD looks to be breaking out of a consolidation triangle bounded by the red downward trend line (Supply line) and the green upward trend line (Demand Line). The breakout shows the imbalance between supply and demand in favor of demand. We could see .9400 to 1.000 in AUD/USD.
That's my 2 pips. Any other opinions are very welcome.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11088&stc=1&d=1201864267