GBP/AUD Poised to Push Higher
All that glitters is not gold in the Australian Economy. Now on its 16th year of economic expansion on the back of higher prices for commodities like copper and gold, the Australian economy is showing a few cracks.
The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2008 to 2.9% (from 3.1% previously). The recent slew of interest rate increases are hurting business and consumer confidence.
Australia’s GDP growth slowed to 3.9% year on year in the final quarter of 2007 from 4.3% in the third quarter.
The Australian current-account deficit equalled 7% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007. This is a ratio that hadn't been reached since 1960.
With any break-neck run to historic lows, a pullback can be expected and capitalized on.
The 61.8% retracement of the 2.0826 low to the 2.1310 high has provided good support as seen on a 2 hour chart. A Morning Star Doji pattern sits atop this area of support and the GBP/AUD could use this to rechallenge its old highs in the 2.1300 neighborhood. Once the 2.1300 is attained, look for a rocky ride back to the 2.1500 area which was the high on 4/18.
See the attached chart:
~Greg
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14088&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209569402
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/attach/doc.gifGBPUSD.doc (132.5 KB, 20 views)
100 0z Gold Bars daily
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14226&stc=1&d=1209908621
GBPJPY one minute and five minute
often a very similar pattern will appear on more than one time frame simultaneously
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14228&stc=1&d=1209909043 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14229&stc=1&d=1209909072
EURUSD monthly
This pattern spans several years, there seems to be no end to it.....!
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14230&stc=1&d=1209909698
GBPCHF
Gregory
You will have to look back in your records and see if you called this one.
I think it is really impressive that the move bounced from the 1.618 precisely.!
That pattern took a long time to form, this is a monthly chart.... and there was a slight decline before the move south started....
Definitely these patterns need a confirming indicator... as when the pattern first appears, there is no rule that price must change direction.... but they do point out what may be about to arrive....
dave
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14268&stc=1&d=1209991012
GBPJPY 240 minute
Bearish AB = CD
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14235&stc=1&d=1209913834
GBPJPY update
I posted this one yesterday and because I am quite interested in GBPJPY I am posting a follow up.
As you can see, the bearish move has commenced and price is moving south... I do not think this is the final down move, there will be, I think a retrace up and then the decline will resume.....
Perhaps someone else will calculate the target for this move.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14270&stc=1&d=1209991487
GBPJPY one minute
often these patterns end and a new one starts or is already started..
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14227&stc=1&d=1209908769
GBPJPY one minute
This one retraced to .382 where it met some continued selling and then went lower
and as I type this I see that it is again attempting to cross the .382.
Quite significant how the ratios point out support and resistance areas...
It did pass up thru the .382 and tested the .500, and back down.
I will attach another chart.......
and the third chart shows price bouncing back and forth between these two while the bulls and bears have a meeting and lunch.... hehehe
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14275&stc=1&d=1210001230 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14277&stc=1&d=1210001618 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14279&stc=1&d=1210003126
GBPJPY
I have combined a daily chart and a monthly chart to show what I think is occurring....
At this time, both are going north, at some time they are going to meet resistance and resume their journey south....., the first significant resistance probably will be the .786 on the daily chart, it has already tested that twice and failed..
And then you will see that the first lower high after the uptrend (on the monthly) has formed and will be time for a major short....
What are your thoughts...? ( I did see your post referencing the .786)
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14292&stc=1&d=1210035171
EURAUD 240 minute (same pattern is on daily)
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14304&stc=1&d=1210078158
HEY Blaiserboy! Glad to have you back! GREAT POSTS. GBPJPY looks poised to move south from Fibonacci I am using. Email me.
GregAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14284&stc=1&d=1210014913
In Elliott wave terms, if this is the end of leg C, then the bounce from the 78.6% level could open up 1.6854-1.7000 area.
See the attached chart:
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14323&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210104399
This is a recap on the GBP/AUD trade that was posted on 4/30/08. The price target was hit before strongly selling off. A tidy 200 pips to the good. Trading with multiple lots enables a trader to take half of the position at the first target and bring the stop to breakeven on the second half of the position. You then have a riskless trade to take advantage of further appreciation.
See the attached chart:Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14332&stc=1&d=1210109523
IlyaAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14343&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210123172
Ilya
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14344&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210123583
EurUsd Short Term chart
Here is a look at short term EURUSD... Right now on the short term it looks like we should expect a 5th wave up above 1.5569 to complete an elliott wave.. At the moment price looks to be supported by 38.2 fib. level of the last 3rd wave, which is where I would be looking for a 4th wave to end and a fifth wave to begin.. A pip above 1.5569 satisfies minimum expectations for the fifth wave and it could violently reverse right from there, however it could reach up towards the 138.2 and 161.8 fib areas around 1.5600 before we see a more significant retracement.
Shown here is a close up of the hourly chart...
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14557&stc=1&d=1210647893
EURAUD move is underway
EUR/AUD has found support at the 1.6263 area which was the 78.6% Fibonacci support of the 17425-15922 swing. looking for price to target the 1.7175 area which is the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level of the swing from 1.7425-1.6263.
It is also the April 14th swing high.
Happy trading
~Greg
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14498&stc=1&d=1210560932
EUR/JPY caught between Daily trend Line and Fib
EUR/JPY looks poised to resume its down trend after a brief hiatus of the bears.
After reaching a high of 162.32 today, EUR/JPY is retreating from a Daily down trend line and a 78.6% resistance level of the 163.05-158.59 swing.
Prices look to move lower and retest the May 13th swing low at 160.12.
The greater than expected loss posted by the mortgage bond insurers MBIA and Ambac could renew the credit crisis fears that rocked markets earlier this year.
Carry trade currencies like EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and CAD/JPY have similar charts and risk aversion will cause many to flee to safer assets.
See this article for more details: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...GQA&refer=home
~ Greg
See the attached chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14590&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210716313
GBPJPY 5 minute
This is not the usual chart for this forum. but it is interesting to see what role the fibs can play as a guide to what is happening minute to minute.
There are several places on this chart where the fib line has provided support or resistance...
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14613&stc=1&d=1210780869
EURAUD
Fib Cluster
Interesting that the stall was on a fib line. and there is a cluster below to slow the next fall
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14381&stc=1&d=1210195279
GBPJPY daily
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14394&stc=1&d=1210230543
EURUSD 720 minute
Fib Clusters
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14379&stc=1&d=1210194896
GBPCHF 60 minute chart
AB = CD
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14427&stc=1&d=1210295454
Patterns
(these are not ready to be traded without other confirmation)
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GBPAUD 240 minute
This one is kind of interesting in that it keeps bouncing off that fib.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14467&stc=1&d=1210384029
GBPJPY daily
nice bounce at the .500
I added a monthly chart........
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14665&stc=1&d=1210855583 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14671&stc=1&d=1210865416