daily candle chart audusd
in daily candle chart AUDUSD we see open above prievious day but the bears were abled lower price down ,whether will see in the end today a dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing??
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Daily Candle Chart Gbpusd
daily candle chart GBPUSD is unclear for candle analysis but i see sell on GBPUSD
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Daily Candle Chart Eurusd
hi all ,in the daily candle chart EURUSD i see interruption and confusion . candle date 02.26 that is a long blue bozu show us the more bulls the implications . in the continuation we see date 02.27 a blue bozu with 106 p length real body and then date 02.28 a blue bozu with 68 p length real body . decrease length these real bodies show us exit bulls from bulls camp .that is right ,whether after 800 p up for EURUSD (since 17 days) must not we waited for fall .the japanese say that whenever a doji appears ,always take notice . a important rule of candlestick is that when a doji appears at the top of a trend ,sell immediately .now we see a spining top at the top of trend EURUSD even after three candle blue bozu ,bulls maintain control and push higher price (1.5240).we see upper wick for spining top and even previous day ,but the bears were abled to take price down (1.5140).war between bear and bulls only show to us a small real body at the top trend .in fact ,this spining top was a blue bozu that changed by bears of pressure . whether we will see a bearish advance block ?? whether we will see EURUSD teh next week 1.4915 ??
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Weekly Candle Chart Eurusd
in the weekly candle chart we see after two blue bozu candles a long blue bozu candle . i think after break out from 1.4968 the more bulls have enterred in the this day and this is the provider of means a form long blue bozu . but candlestick analyze for weekly is very unclear .we must wait for signal
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Weekly Candle Chart Gbpusd
maybe in the first sight ,when we see weekly candle chart GBPUSD will draw in the mind us a defective inverse hammer and a long blue bozu that by bears have changed to a hammer and after that a long blue bozu .whether we are seeing a bullish pattern ??!! for example three inside up reversal ?? or a thing semifluid similar three white soldier ?? no we must pay attention to hono shooting star that have started fall for GBPUSD .agree with me that at least fall from 2.1145 to 1.9345 (1820 p) must have a rest . yes this is not pattern .recent composition candlestickes in the weekly candle chart GBPUSD only is considered a rest from trading and a rest from camp . yes real war for gbpusd well see next time . maybe GBPUSD retest again 1.9974 but after that FALL FALL .i see GBPUSD long term below 1.90
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Daily Candle Chart Gbpusd
daily candle chart GBPUSD is unclear only i see a series sell off
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Weekly Candle Chart Nzdusd
after a strong up trend ,weekly candle opened and traded higher but b4 the end of the week the bears step in and take the price back down ,the long upper wick represents that sellers had started stepping in at these levels. when we see a shooting star at the top trend ,this is best time for sell but i can not classify this weekly candle between a shooting star and a harami . criteria is right for shooting star but close is incorrect also criteria is incorrect for harami for long upper wick . at any case NZDUSD IS SELL and we must see more selling the next days will confirm the move
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Daily Candle Chart Nzdusd
the daily candle chart NZDUSD is clear
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cadyen
winner card for this week
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what beautiful long legged doji ! we thanks from these candles that give to us information , we know that will say again will go near low previous monthly .
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Daily Candle Chart Eurusd
whether we must will see a spining top for next day again till completed our pattern .after that we see an up trend in the EURUSD has been in effect , the appearance of the first spining top reveals that in now indecision in the bull camp and bear camp , then again we see a plus koma that show to us the more bull the implications but we see again a spining top in the same direction .this reveals from indecision and fear and show to us that any trader that had any conviction is now reversing their position
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Daily Candle Usdyen
only i see a temporary resting for reinforcement for continuation fall
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Daily Candle Chart Gbpusd
in daily candle chart GBPUSD still i have not recived candle signals for up ,only i see sell off ---sell off--- sell off .even we see the previous day with a small real body with long upper wick (sell off) that opened lower then the previous day and closed lower . i can not see pattern for GBPUSD now
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Daily Candle Chart Nzdusd
n daily candle chart NZDUSD we see previous day as a retracement to 50% fibo ,now we see a form for next day similar a bearish harami pattern or even we have more optimism , maybe we will see a dark cloud cover for next dar ??
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Daily Candle Chart Eurusd
in the daily candle chart EURUSD we see a spining top again for the previous day this week all the daily candles are with a small real bodies and with a small upper and lower wicks .a series small real bodies are stabilizer this case that the market of direction is not clear and every hour we must to wait for new events .these spining tops show us indecision and fear . if we see again a spining top or a star ,approximately we have a defective bearish tri star candlestick pattern . on the other hand ,in the weekly candle chart EURUSD we see a spining top or in the end this week a star that this form give to us a bearish harami cross .im waiting for close below 1.5136 today
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Daily Candle Chart Gbpusd
its very good ,when we see a series sell-off that is reason for fall GBPUSD still i can not see a candlestick pattern for GBPUSD but give to us close below 1.9762 for today a signal sell for GBPUSD on the other hand in the weekly candle chart we see a bearish harami or in the end this week a dark cloud cover
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Daily Candle Chart Nzdusd
also in the weekly candle chart NZDUSD we see a dark cloud cover
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daily candle chart audusd
still i can not see a candlestick pattern in the weekly candle chart AUDUSD but see a noxious shoothing star
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Daily Candle Usdyen
in the daily candle chart USDYEN ,we see a long legged doji .this candle show to us liquidation between traders and exit sellers from market for to take profit . also this candle show to us that sellers are waiting for again entrance to market with best point .even probably we will see usdyen going to 103.90 or 104.30 today .
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EUR/USD
Ready to resume ascent?
Last week, we noted EURUSD price action had presented an inverted hammer candlestick, signaling a possible bearish reversal. That view has now been confirmed - the pair tumbled the following day. Our entry below 1.5800 yielded over 500 pips in profit, though our profit target of 1.5320 was narrowly missed by 20 pips (EURUSD reached a low of 1.5340 last week).
Having completed the expected retracement, we now find the EURUSD at trend line support, with a Hammer reversal pattern waiting to be confirmed by a bullish candle. If that materializes, we will look for the bullish trend to resume. Those traders that have not taken profit on our suggested short position should do so here. With the long term bias still favoring the upside, we will re-enter long at trend line support with a tight stop in place should the pair break down further. Our initial profit target will eye the top of the most recent bullish run to 1.5740. However, we will keep a close eye on the pair’s momentum and adjust the profit target contingent with the price action.
EUR/USD Trading Strategy
1. If the Hammer formation is confirmed with a bullish candle, long EURUSD near 1.5380 (trend line support).
2. Set stop near 1.5270, just below the wick low of the 03/06-03/09 consolidation.
3. Set the initial profit target just below 1.5740, giving a favorable risk-reward ratio (risking 110 pips to gain 360).
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-24-08_2.jpg
GBP/USD
Retracement offers advantageous entry for long trade
Last week, we saw the GBPUSD testing the upward sloping trend-line at 2.0040, with a multiple resistance-turned-support level firmly in place below. At that time, we chose to remain flat as the pair settles towards support with a medium-term bullish view from there. This proved wise – cable broke through the trend line to settle at the next support level above 1.9740. Waiting for confirmation is critical to sound technical analysis, and our patience last week has offered us a favorable entry point.
With the long term trend still biased to the upside, we will look to enter long above support at 1.9740 targeting trend line support turned resistance at 2.0208. An extended Abandoned Baby formation as well as a bullish engulfing pattern lends credence to our expectations of a reversal for another run to the upside.
GBP/USD Strategy
1. Long GBPUSD above 1.9740.
2. Set profit target just below 2.0208.
3. Set stop-loss just below the price congestion at 1.9620. This will give excellent risk-reward parameters (risking 120 pips to gain 468).
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-24-08_3.jpg
USD/JPY
Decline stabilized, eyeing up move
Last week the USDJPY was in a free-fall, having broken below medium term support above 103.00 and the long-term support at 101.69. We chose to remain neutral, waiting for the pair to offer a good entry point. As with the sterling, this proved wise. The pair found a bottom above 97.40 and has stabilized.
The pair now shows a bullish Three White Soldiers reversal pattern. Yesterday’s bullish candle also closed above the high for last week, lending further weight to an argument advocating the upside.
USD/JPY Strategy
1. Long USDJPY above 99.90
2. Set stop near 97.50, above the pair’s recent bottom.
3. Set profit target below 105.50, the bottom of the range broken in late February to initiate the most recent bearish decline.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-24-08_4.jpg
USD/CAD
A rare range trade amid market volatility
We opted to wait for confirmation on USDCAD last week, seeing a flag continuation pattern in the weekly bars and looking for downside break. Once again, waiting to have our view validated proved critical, as the USDCAD broke up rather than down.
Now looking at a daily chart, we notice a range that has contained price action since mid-November. A false break occurred in January, but the pair reverted back into the range and has in recent days established an Evening Start bearish reversal formation at top-side resistance.
USD/CAD Strategy
1. Short USDCAD below 1.0250.
2. Set stop loss near 1.0390, above the false break high.
3. Set profit target above 0.9870 at the most recent wick low and above the range bottom.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-24-08_5.jpg
AUD/USD
The stars align for a top-side move
Last week, we opted to remain on the sidelines waiting for the pair to fail to close below the trend line at 0.9230 and show a bullish candle to signal a long entry. Once again, our cautious approach proved prudent - support gave way, seeing the AUDUSD fall support at a longer-term trend line established in August of last year.
With a yield gap of 5.00%, our long term bias for AUDUSD remains bullish. This view is validated by a Morning Star formation at trend line support, a strong reversal signal.
AUD/USD Strategy
1. Long AUDUSD above 0.9030 near trend line support.
2. Set stop above 0.8875, below the trend line and just above a price congestion area seen Oct-Dec ’07.
3. Set profit target just below 0.9360, the site of wick highs following the previous support break.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-24-08_6.jpg
NZD/USD
Bearish reversal imminent?
Last week, we advocated a long position at 0.7934 with a target just below 0.8200. The trade’s success depended on each trader’s preferred target. In our case, we set the target at 0.8175 where it was narrowly missed (the high was 0.8172) before the Kiwi dollar collapsed through trend line support. We were stopped out with a loss of 80 pips, which was more than made up for by our successful EURUSD trade. The lesson to be learned here is to avoid round numbers and multiples of five when setting stop and limit levels, as those tend coincide with psychological support/resistance points.
We also noted last week that the monthly NZDUSD chart suggests a long-term resistance level in place since 2003 coinciding with the 0.8200 level. Given last week’s support breach, this may in fact prove to be the site of a major trend reversal. The pair seems to have found support at 0.7872, coinciding with the first test trend line support test at the beginning of this month. A Morning Star reversal pattern has been shown, but it has failed to break back over the trend line, suggesting this may simply be a consolidation move prior to a downside drop. Our bias has shifted from bullish to a cautiously bearish one. We will wait for confirmation before taking a trade on NZDUSD.
NZD/USD Strategy
We remain flat as we wait for confirmation of a directional bias.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-24-08_7.jpg
EUR/USD
Is 1.6000 next?
Last week, we identified a hammer at the EURUSD trend line support and advocated a long position targeting 1.5740, above the highest close of the preceding bullish run. Our reasoning was validated, yielding over 300 pips in profit.
Having closed above 1.5740, the EURUSD price action has consolidated in a tight 130-pip range. The pair showed a Hanging Man bearish reversal pattern following the close above the previous top, suggesting the up move was exhausted for the time being. The subsequent downside has been limited however, with the pair looking to be consolidating above resistance-turned-support at 1.5730. Having failed to violate the up trend, the EURUSD retains a bullish bias. On balance, US economic data turned from bad to mixed last week, so price action may continue to lack a clear direction until Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release. Though we will continue to buy the pair, the lack of a strong signal means we will keep a close eye on price action and cut losses quickly as we look for a test of the psychologically significant 1.6000 figure.
EUR/USD Trading Strategy
1. Long EURUSD closely above support at 1.5730.
2. Set stop above 1.5630, a prior support/resistance area.
3. Set profit target near 1.6000, risking 100 pips to gain about 270.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-30-08_EUR.JPG
GBP/USD
Another retracement, another entry opportunity
Last week, we bought GBPUSD following a Bullish Engulfing pattern above support at 1.9740 targeting trend line resistance below 2.0208. The pair reached a high of 2.0191, coming within 17 pips of the target level we were looking at. As we have noted here before, traders need to be flexible with setting their stop-loss and profit target levels. Support and resistance often lies within a 10-20 pip range rather than a single price point. In our case, we took profit the day following the Star candle establishing the weekly high for positive gains over 300 pips.
Following the run up to resistance, the pair retraced to find support above price congestion in the 1.9900 – 1.9750 area. We have also identified a supporting trend line intersecting with a multiple support/resistance level just below 1.9900. The current candle looks to be shoring a Hammer, though we can’t be certain that will remain the case until it closes. Still, with no compelling evidence to change our mind, our bias on GBPUSD remains bullish. We look for an entry above support near the 1.9900 mark, aiming just below the 3/16 wick high close to 2.0278.
GBP/USD Strategy
1. Long GBPUSD above 1.9900
2. Set profit target just below 2.0278
3. Set stop-loss just below the price congestion at 1.9850, risking 150 pips to gain 378.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-30-08_GBP.JPG
USD/JPY
Range trading dominates price action
Having stabilized following a break past long-term support at 101.69, we were expecting USDJPY to present an upside opportunity. While the pair did not break down to hit our stop-loss, it failed to rally as well. Instead, USDJPY spent last week oscillating in a range between 98.90 and 100.70. Having entered long above 99.90, we closed out our trade at break-even as price action stalled.
Looking ahead, USDJPY does not present a clear signal for a directional move. However, given the pair’s penchant for following risk sentiment, we will opt not to range trade here given the proximity of multiple significant economic data releases. Instead, we will look for a daily bar close beyond current range boundaries. We will then reassess our bias, and establish a position accordingly.
USD/JPY Strategy
We remain flat as we wait for confirmation of a directional bias.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-30-08_JPY.JPG
USD/CAD
Range remains intact, waiting for a catalyst
Last week, we noticed a range that has contained price action since mid-November. A false break occurred in January, but the pair reverted back into the range and has in recent days established an Evening Star bearish reversal formation at top-side resistance. A significant down move failed to materialize, with consolidation in a smaller sub-range between the larger top at 1.0252 and 1.0090.
With pricing generally unchanged on the week, our posture on USDCAD remains unchanged. We favor a short below top-side resistance towards the bottom of the range.
USD/CAD Strategy
1. Short USDCAD below 1.0250.
2. Set stop loss near 1.0390, above the false break high.
3. Set profit target above 0.9870 at the most recent wick low and above the range bottom.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-30-08_CAD.JPG
AUD/USD
Holding on for more upside
Last week, we noted a Morning Star formation at trend line support, a strong reversal signal. Citing an attractive yield gap of 5.00%, we established our long term bias for AUDUSD as bullish. Though the pair saw an up move from our entry above 0.9030 to reach a high of 0.9252 (222 pips), it failed to rally as high as our target below 0.9360.
Currently, price action has surpassed a multiple support/resistance level at 0.9113 and has stabilized. We will move our stop loss up to break even around 0.9030, eliminating the downside and continuing to hold for last week’s target.
AUD/USD Strategy
1. Holding long above 0.9113.
2. Set stop break even, equal to the entry price for last week’s long position near 0.9030.
3. Set profit target just below 0.9360, the site of wick highs following the previous support break.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-30-08_AUD.JPG
NZD/USD
Consolidation delays bearish reversal
Last week, we opted to remain on the sidelines in NZDUSD. We noted a Morning Star pattern above support at 0.7872, coinciding with the first test trend line support test at the beginning of this month. We cautioned that the monthly NZDUSD chart suggests a long-term resistance level in place since 2003 coinciding with the 0.8200 level.
This week, the pair offers little by way of new insights. While the anticipated bearish run has yet to validate itself, our suspicion that the Morning Star bullish reversal pattern would see little follow-though proved accurate. Price action has remained range-bound, oscillating between 0.7880 and 0.8100. Without a clear candlestick signal to guide our thinking, we will hold off on taking a trade on NZDUSD. That said, our bias remains cautiously bearish. We will look for a daily bar close beyond the lower range boundary. Should that materialize, we will enter short below 0.7880 targeting 0.7390.
NZD/USD Strategy
We remain flat as we wait for confirmation of a directional bias.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/special_report/special_report/03-30-08_NZD.JPG
RE: Euro Consolidates Gains, 1.60 Next?
Hi Tmac
Yes, I still see EURUSD going higher to test 1.60. Here is what I saw for EURUSD this this week (from the article):
The beginning of last week saw EURUSD price action has consolidated in a tight 130-pip range. The up-trend had not been violated, so we advocated continuing to buy the pair, adding a cautionary note that the lack of a strong signal meant we will keep a close eye on price action and cut losses quickly. Our hesitation was warranted – EURUSD responded sharply to the marginally better ISM Manufacturing report, dropping out of the range to hit our stop for a loss of 100 pips.
Friday’s NFP report disappointed hopeful dollar bulls, showing losses 30k greater than expected and revising the previous month’s result to the downside. EURUSD has once again found itself at the familiar trend line stretching from 02/07. With last week’s event risk behind us, we continue to hold the view that EURUSD is poised to test the 1.6000 mark. A Hammer at the trend line confirmed by a bullish candle seen last week adds credence to the up-side bias.
EUR/USD Trading Strategy
1. Long EURUSD above trend line support at 1.5660.
2. Set stop near 1.5490, below the wick low of the Hammer candle.
3. Set profit target near 1.6000, risking 170 pips to gain 400.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13121&stc=1&d=1207550262
GBP/USD tone shifts to favor the downside
Last week, we saw no compelling evidence to change our bullish bias on GBPUSD. The market saw otherwise as the pair fell in step with dollar strength following Tuesday’s ISM report, taking out our stop at 1.9850 for a loss of 150 pips.
Recent price action has provided a third point to establish a downward-sloping resistance trend line (see chart below). We have also noted a Shooting Star bearish reversal signal. This has warranted us to change our bias on GBPUSD to bearish in the near term, looking for the pair to move back to triple bottom support near 1.9730. It is important to note that a Shooting Star is typically considered to be a weaker bearish signal, with most trading waiting for the next candle to close bearish for confirmation.
GBP/USD Strategy
1. Short GBPUSD near 1.9970, below trend line resistance and the psychologically important 2.00 level.
2. Set stop-loss above shooting star wick near 2.0060.
3. Set profit target near triple bottom support at 1.9730, risking about 90 pips to gain 240.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13122&stc=1&d=1207550359
USD/JPY - A mixed message
Last week we opted to remain on the sidelines in USDJPY having identified a range between 98.90 and 100.70 and waiting for a breakout to show directional bias. As we had suspected, the range broke to the upside, setting a bullish tone for the pair.
Current USDJPY price action is showing mixed message. Last week ended showing an Evening Star formation, though today’s candle looks poised to invalidate that signal with a Bullish Engulfing. The latter scenario is in keeping with the range break we identified, though we can’t treat it as a valid signal until the candle closes. Should last week’s bearish reversal signal be invalidated, we will look for additional upside momentum.
USD/JPY Strategy
1. If the Bullish Engulfing is confirmed, long USDJPY above 102.40.
2. If entry conditions are met, set stop-loss near 101.05 below recent wick lows.
3. Following confirmation, set profit target near 105.61, risking 135 pips to gain 321.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13123&stc=1&d=1207550435
AUD/USD - More upside ahead
We had initially entered AUDUSD long following a Morning Star formation above trend line support two weeks ago near 0.9030. This trend line had been established in August of last year. The pair rallied to reach a high of 0.9252 that week (222 pips), but failed to rally as high as our target below 0.9360. Last week, we moved up our stop to the break-even, taking risk off the table and looking for upside momentum to continue following a retracement. The pull-back proved deeper than we expected, with the lowest tick on 04/01 right at 0.9030.
Whether the break-even stop was triggered on the tick to 0.9030 depends on the level of initial entry. Most importantly, the trend line that we based our analysis around was not violated, as the candle did not close below. Since 04/01, AUDUSD rallied back above the 0.9200 level. We saw a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the 04/02 close that has now been confirmed and is showing a Three White Soldiers formation.
Those traders that were not stopped out last week may hold the position for further upside. We were stopped out at break-even, and will now look to re-enter long aiming for the 0.9500 top. Though we will opt to set our stop-loss inside the trend line for favorable risk-reward, we will monitor closely for a repeat of last week’s events. Should a stray wick take out the stop-loss but fail to close below the trend line, we will look for confirmation on the next candle and then re-establish the long trade.
AUD/USD Strategy
1. Long AUDUSD above 0.9200.
2. Set stop at 0.9080, below recent lows.
3. Set profit target just below 0.9470 near the top preceding the most recent major retracement.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13124&stc=1&d=1207550585
USD/CAD - Range Top Holds
Last week, we favored a short below the top of the established range below 1.0252. The range top held up to erratic swings in sentiment towards the Greenback as USDCAD continued to dance to its own beat, seemingly oblivious to the other majors. Our short bias yielded over 150 pips in profit as the pair dropped back in the middle of the range towards the parity level.
Currently, we see an upward-sloping trend line connecting the lows since the end of February. Previous oscillations inside the range have led to periods of congestion as price action works itself lower. There are no candlestick formations that stand out at the moment. We will opt to take profit on our USDCAD short trade here, holding off taking additional positions until the pair breaks past the trend line. That said our bias remains bearish.
USD/CAD Strategy
1. Short USDCAD on a daily close below trend line support (currently near 1.0026).
2. If entry conditions are met, a viable stop-loss level would lie near 1.0103, just above last week’s close.
3. Following the trend line break, we are targeting the bottom of the range.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13125&stc=1&d=1207550725
NZD/USD - Consolidation delays bearish reversal
Last week, we opted to remain on the sidelines in NZDUSD. Our suspicion of a bearish tone proved valid, as the pair broke out of its range between 0.7880 and 0.8100 to settle at the long term upward sloping support line established in September of last year. The test produced a Morning Star candlestick pattern, but bullish momentum failed to build – the candlestick following the Morning Star proved bearish, engulfing the body of the bullish one that preceded it.
Price action now looks to be coiling into a triangle formation. This is typically a continuation pattern, though it is far too soon to be certain on the timing of breakout. So far, it seems the bears retain the upper hand with the pair consolidating prior to a reversal lower. However, we do not have a confirmed signal to enter a trade.
NZD/USD Strategy
We remain flat as we wait for confirmation of a directional bias.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13127&stc=1&d=1207550794
RE: Euro/USD Double hammer
Hi Angelika
Here is a screenshot from FX Power Charts of the EURUSD daily chart. Which double hammer are you referring to?
Ilya
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Usdchf Major Reversal
Here is a look at USDCHF on the weekly chart... Price appears to be reversing from a major resistance area.. A few weeks back price formed a hammer right on the 161.8 Fibonnaci level which I believe should trigger a reversal in this pair..
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EUR/USD - Triple Top Contains Upside
At the beginning of last week we identified a Hammer at the trend line supporting EURUSD confirmed by a bullish candle. This led us to hold with our bullish bias, entering long at just above 1.5660 and targeting a test of the psychologically important 1.6000 mark. Though upside momentum materialized as we expected, our target was not reached. Price action stalled just below 1.5900, making a triple top. Still, with a close at 1.5826 the week yielded 166 pips in profit.
Looking ahead to this week, we see that the weekend’s G7 communiqué has buoyed the US dollar across all the majors. If the current EURUSD candle closes as-is, we will see a Bearish Engulfing and a break of the established bullish tend line. This would change our bias to favor the downside, and likely spark a major selloff in EURUSD. Should the candle close above the trend line, the bullish trend will remain intact and we will be looking for a buying opportunity. We are not able to make a reliable trading decision until today’s candle closes, and will wait for confirmation in tomorrow’s price action.
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GBP/USD - Positioning for further downside
Last week, we noted a Shooting Star bearish reversal signal at the down-sloping resistance trend line. This shifted our bias to bearish on GBPUSD, looking for downside to 1.9730. Our analysis proved correct – GBPUSD declined to hit the target at 1.9730. Though profit/loss depends on where each trader entered the position, we opened short as of the printing of last week’s article at 1.9927 to book 197 pips in profit.
For this week, the pair does not show a clear candlestick signal as yet. Price action is currently testing 1.9690, a level that has acted as resistance in February and turned into support when price action penetrated above it. Our overall bias remains bearish. Should the close of today’s candle confirm a support break, we will look for continued downside targeting 1.9387.
GBP/USD Strategy
1. Short GBPUSD on a break of support at 1.9690
2. Set stop-loss jus above the recent wick high at 1.9843.
3. Set profit target near 1.9387, risking about 153 pips to gain 303.
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USD/JPY - Finally ready for an upside push?
Last week opened with a candle that would become a Bullish Engulfing pattern by the close of Monday’s trading session. We noted that should this happen, we would buy USDJPY above 102.40 with a stop near 101.05, targeting 105.60. A spike wick low took out our stop, locking in loses of 138 pips. USDJPY would end the week just above support at 100.70, a level that acted as the range top for price action following the pair bouncing up from a multi-year low near 96.00.
The current candle looks to be forming an inverted Hammer. If the candle closes as-is, this will be a bullish reversal signal pointing to USDJPY upside momentum. If confirmed, we will go long USDJPY above 100.70, revising our profit target lower to aim just below 104.00.
USD/JPY Strategy
1. If the Inverted Hammer is confirmed, long USDJPY above 100.70
2. Set stop-loss near 99.97 below recent wick lows.
3. Set profit target just below 104.00, risking about 73 pips to gain 330.
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USD/CAD - Large Range Top in Play Again
We took a cautionary stance on USDCAD last week having booked profits on a short trade from downward bounce following a test of the large range top at 1.0250. We established conditions whereby if the pair closed below the upward-sloping trend line guiding price action mid-range, we would go short again. Our conditions were not met, and no trade was triggered.
Currently, price action has retraced from the trend line back to the range top at 1.0250. There are no candlestick signals here yet. Given the pair’s previous behavior at this level, our bias remains short. We will wait for confirmation of a close below resistance on today’s candle. Should this materialize, we will look to go short again towards the bottom of the range.
USD/CAD Strategy
1. Short USDCAD on a daily close below range top support at 1.0250.
2. Set stop-loss at 1.0384, above January’s false break wick high.
3. Monitor price action on a retrace to the trend line at 1.0100. Should trading stall here, take profit. On a break past the trend line, hold short to target 0.9835 near the range bottom.
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AUD/USD Reversal Underway – Will Trend Line Offer Support Again?
Last week, favored a long position above 0.9200 targeting 0.9470. Though AUDUSD did not reach as high as we had hoped, the upside momentum we forecast materialized as expected. The week closed with the pair at 0.9288, booking just over 80 pips in profit.
Looking ahead, we see today’s price action forming a Large Black Candle ahead of the psychologically significant 0.9200 level. This is typically a strong bearish signal, though our reading of risk-reward does not offer a tempting-enough entry to go short. On a break of 0.9200 we will look for price action to take AUDUSD to the long-term supporting trend line just above 0.9100. We expect this support to hold and position Australian dollar bulls to regain momentum. Should we see a break at the trend line, AUDUSD may be in for substantial losses in the coming weeks.
AUD/USD Strategy
We remain flat as we wait to establish directional bias.
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NZD/USD - Testing Trend Line Support
Last week open did not yield sufficient evidence to initiate a position in NZDUSD. Mid-week, price action moved higher from trend line support as risk appetite returned to the market. Mid-week, price action formed a Hanging Man candlestick marking a reversal back to the downside.
This week, NZDUSD finds itself at the familiar upward-sloping trend line established in August of last year. Should downside be contained here, we expect New Zealand Dollar bulls to retake momentum and drive the pair upward to the March high at 0.8067. Alternatively, a break and close below the trend line would signal substantial NZDUSD losses in the coming weeks.
NZD/USD Strategy
1. Long NZDUSD on a confirmed reversal at 0.7850 along the upward sloping trend line.
2. Set stop loss at 0.7773, just under the wick low of the most recent trend line test.
3. Set target at 0.8067 near the March top, risking 77 pips to gain 217.
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It seems to me that USDCHF price action more than any other major reveals the market's sentiment towards the US dollar. Price action is uncertain and choppy, with traders wanting a USD relief rally but not getting enough of a catalyst to actually push the pair. If you take a look at April's price action thus far, the candles' bodies are relatively small with each seemingly definitive signal invalidated quickly after. With the direction of the trend line (see attached chart), I think we might be slowly grinding lower unless dollar bulls can really get something substantial to chew on.
Then again, last month's ISM was hardly a blessing and the dollar used it as fuel for a sizable knee-jerk rally, so we have to be careful.
IlyaAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13354&stc=1&d=1208151361
EUR/USD - Triple Top Broken, Looking Up From Trend Line
Triple Top Broken, Looking Up From Trend Line
Last week, the danger of a trend break emerged as we saw what could have been a Bearish Engulfing as the US Dollar strengthened following statements at that weekend’s G7 summit. We opted to remain on the sidelines and wait for the market to tell us how best to proceed.
The bearish reversal did not materialize. Rather, EURUSD broke through triple top resistance at 1.5900 with a Long White Candle. A lull in US and European data at last week’s end prompted what looked to be a technically driven relief retracement. This saw the pair decline to trend line support. From here, we continue to believe that EURUSD will test 1.6000. Current positioning at the trend line offers a good entry point.
EUR/USD Trading Strategy
1. Long EURUSD at trend line support above 1.5800
2. Set stop-loss below last week’s low at 1.5701
3. Set target at 1.6000
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USD/JPY - Topside Break Out
Last week we saw a Hammer candle forming but chose to hold off and wait for confirmation until it closed. We noted that if the candle closes with the Hammer still showing, this will be a bullish reversal signal pointing to USDJPY upside momentum. We therefore suggested a conditional strategy, saying that if confirmation comes we will go long USDJPY above 100.70, revising our profit target lower to aim just below 104.00. Our analysis proved correct. The candle we were looking at was confirmed a Hammer (see below). This prompted us to buy USDJPY, entering at 101.08 with a stop at 99.97 and targeting 103.97. Our target price was reached, yielding 289 pips in profit.
Upside momentum has extended above the medium term resistance level at 102.90 (shown below). This suggests USDJPY will continue moving up from here. However, present positioning does not yield good risk-reward parameters. Should the pair retrace back to 102.90, we will enter long upon seeing a bullish reversal candlestick.
USD/JPY Strategy
1. Long USDJPY if it retraces to 102.90 and a confirms a reversal.
2. Set stop-loss near 101.40 amid recent price congestion.
3. Set profit target just below 106.00, risking 150 pips to gain about 300.
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USD/CAD - Range Top Caps Upside, Trend Line Support Gives Way
Last week began with USDCAD back near the large range top at 1.0250. Though we saw no candlestick signals, our bias remained short given the pair’s previous behavior at this level. We opted to wait for confirmation of a close below resistance on today’s candle to go short again towards the bottom of the range.
Our confirmation came, and we shorted USDCAD following the next day’s bearish close. As we noted, we monitored closely as the pair tested the trend line at 1.0100. USDCAD did not stall here, breaking though with a Long Black Candle and prompting us to remain short. While there was a relief rally back to the tend line following the break, this support-turned-resistance was not penetrated and remains in effect. We will move our stop to break even (in our case we got in at 1.0185) and continue to hold short towards our target at 0.9835.
USD/CAD Strategy
1. Continue holding short USDCAD.
2. Move stop to break even (1.0185 is our case).
3. Target 0.9835 near the range bottom.
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