Wow. I couldn't have been more wrong about that. To my surprise 229.50 has held up very well as resistance. I found little value in this level besides that falling trendline starting from the high on 11/1 (but I don't trust trenlines that are established by a series of highs or lows closely grouped together and the are retested after a long period of no consequential price action along the line). Falling back below considerable support at 225.50/60 looks good for an extended short.
Back to 221 perhaps?Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9769&stc=1&d=1196868243
Well we shot up just above 227, but I'm not looking to take a short now. Though we have held below a fib confluence, the trendline has fallen; and that could mean technical analysts there were only looking for trend direction probably won't even pay attention to the other techs and will try to push it higher.
Alternatively, it looks like a tempting long on a pullback after a break. But given this pair's volatility and the unstable technical levels I have been pulling up on it recently, I'm not going to try and immediately change my stance and open a long.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9809&stc=1&d=1197038966
To keep the file uploading going -I present you with my daily chart. It looks like we are once again upon resistance with the range (or broad pivot if you want to look at it that way) around 228.75/229.50.
I don't know if I want to take a downward bias on this pair like you have Terri, but it certainly looks like if we see a high put in at current spot levels, it would bring us one step closer to breaking the major 220 support level.
I'm not going to trade this high though. Far too much volatility in this area and stops would have to be too wide. I wouldn't even take a small position size with this because it is just too difficult to tell whether we have a high or if we have a verified breakout because of the constantly questionable momentum.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9855&stc=1&d=1197307299
Have a safe trip Maratha! We look forward to seeing you back in the forums...
GBPJPY is holding below short-term trendline resistance...but price action has been pretty boring. A drop from these levels targets 224.
Looks like carry trades like GBPJPY aren't cool anymore, everyone's just watching the USD.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9803&stc=1&d=1197009885
GBPJPY continues to creep higher, but I'm not interested in placing any trades right now. The attached chart is a 240 min time frame, but on the daily charts, the price action over the past couple of weeks (following the sharp drop in November) look like nothing but consolidation. In that respect, the pair has offered a range-trading opportunities every now and then, but on the other hand, I feel hesitant to place bets on a pair that I think is bound to breakout.
My bias remains to the downside with this pair in the longer-term, but I'm waiting for things to clear up a bit before establishing my next move.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9845&stc=1&d=1197283904
here sharing ideas and strategies.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9916&stc=1&d=1197450511
Well, Ms Belkas, your intuition proved right - through the morning before the FOMC at least. It's too bad you didn't go in for at least a small short to that could have rode that 200-plus point drop that looks like it was a happy combination of a cross selling and a sharp drop in the pound crosses. Though, I understand your standing aside for the event risk.
Heading into the release, equities are relatively stable (as to be expected) between 13,700 and 13,750. Clearly the risk correlation between the yen pairs and US equities has eroded as the specter of volatility grows; but I may take a small position on a rate decision on a momentum move anywhere between 230 and 224. Of course, if we are too close to support or resistance, I may have to forgo any trades.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9894&stc=1&d=1197393417
Terri is taking some much deserved vacation time in a far warmer climate than New York's.
There seems to be a notable confluence of technicals at 230 to suggest it will hold as resistance. You have the 50% fib of the 8/17 to 11/1 upswing (which initially held up as support in the October swing low), a range high, a top in volatility suggested through the bollinger bands and of course 230 is a psychological number.
All that being said though, I'm not going to try to short this. Today's candle is nearly 500 points. That kind of momentum should not be faded unless you see clear signs that the market is cooling and a turn is possible for the linger yen bulls. If anyone were to trade this to the short side, they'll have to play with wide stops, expect high volatility and therefore false breaks to the upside.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9928&stc=1&d=1197477501
Hello weekapaugh,
Those sites' suggestions that the Japanese yen is correlated to the stock market is correct. This relationship holds not because they are interchangable; but because both are considered assets that are closely tied to what market participants would call risky assets. Stocks are considered a relatively risky assets and traders and portfolio managers will generally put their money into equities when they think market-wide volatility will remain low and things are generally improving. At the same time, investment in the carry trade (selling a low yielding currency and buying high one) is dependent on the same conditions that are optimal for long-side stock investment because the interest you receive is threatened by capital losses (so a drop in GBPJPY could quickly wipe out the interest you recieved on the carry).
Over the past two days, the risk outlook for the markets has degraded and improved. Yesterday, the Fed only cut a quarter point where a hefty section of the market was hoping for a half point reduction to better help the sticky credit markets and revive confidence in stocks. So, the disappointment sent risky assets declining. Then, this morning, the Fed followed up on its quarter point rate cut with an announcement that the Fed would be injecting liquidity into the market in a new way (the ECB, BoE, BoC, BoJ and SNB announced the same). This is expected to help calm credit market fears and revive lending, so risk acceptance is once again on the rise.
Does that help?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9930&stc=1&d=1197478179
Well I'm back from my brief vacation (with a bit of a sunburn, standard for any trip down south for me), and I've been busy checking out everything that happened since then. My main conclusion: I'm still long-term bearish GBPJPY (big surprise, right?), though I wouldn't be surprised to see the pair range trade for a while first. I sort of wish that the Fed would stop putting on the show-and-dance and just let equities correct like they are meant to do, rather than delaying it.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9988&stc=1&d=1197885020
simple method toward gbp/ jpy
the price close under sma 21 . u can sell
and
the price close aboce sma21 u can buy
sl @ sell is : MAXIMUM of back candle + 5
exit with trend line
sl @ buy is : UNDERMOST of back candle + 5
exit with trend line
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9971&stc=1&d=1197733614
Hello everyone
Hello everyone .. I am new in this thread ...will GJ goes to 224.85 ?? http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9973&stc=1&d=1197817020
Hello
Hello everyone ...time to sell GJ?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9975&stc=1&d=1197844257
gbp/jpy @ daily & H4 & H1 time
gbp/jpy @ daily & H4 & H1 time
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10007&stc=1&d=1197921636 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10008&stc=1&d=1197921646 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10009&stc=1&d=1197921656
Hi Jeanne,
We all use different analysis techniques here, but this is what I'm looking at for GBPJPY. The pair has formed an ascending wedge (which is a bearish formation), and a break below approx 226 would likely target 221. On the other hand, a bounce from 226.90 could keep GBPJPY moving up towards the falling trendline that Jamie mentioned. I like to consider all of the scenarios (upside and downside), since the picture is constantly changing.
Are you looking to trade the pair during a short-term time frame or a longer-term one? Are you currently in any positions?Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10012&stc=1&d=1197954894
I agree that there is downside potential towards 226.30, which marks the supporting trendline of a rising wedge. I actually have a short position open from 228.49, but I'm being a bit more conservative and set a target of 226.90, where the 61.8% fib of 224.80-230.33 lies.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10042&stc=1&d=1198046907
gbp/jpy and today
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10015&stc=1&d=1197983464 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10016&stc=1&d=1197983475
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-16 18:24 编辑 ]
While I don't doubt that GBPJPY could rally from trendline support at 226.30 and wouldn't fight the move, I would identify the recent formation as more of a rising wedge (which tends to be bearish) than a triangle since the upper trendline is not flat.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10044&stc=1&d=1198069914
my daily target
Hello Moderator, It seems GJ will go to 226.36 and then 225.65 today, Thank you. http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10040&stc=1&d=1198043230
Thank you Moderator,
Imo GJ still down today after small retrace to 226.90 , I will short GJ from there with TP1 225.23 and TP2 224.42
Merry Christmas and happy new year http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10055&stc=1&d=1198110094
Happy holidays to you all as well!
I'd say that during the early days of the new year, we'll see that traders will re-enter the market. Until then, it'll probably be no-man's land, which is rather unfortunate for those of us that have to watch the markets http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Looking at an hourly GBPJPY chart, we saw a break below trendline support of the wedge we talked about yesterday. I think under normal conditions (aka traders actually being in the markets), we would've seen a much sharper break lower. However, right now we're seeing the pair just sort of drift towards support at 224.73 - 225. I'm not really planning on doing much with GBPJPY trade-wise until we see volumes pick up again, unless we see some huge piece of news that sends volatility sky rocketing.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10057&stc=1&d=1198139366
Headed Down
I am new to this forum but grateful to all for their input. However, I think this pair is easily tradeable and here is a perfect trade that triggered 2 days ago. Jamie is looking for 210 as a possible target so who knows? At this point I am looking for a pause around 220 before the next leg down.
Feel free to contact me if you would like info on my charts/system.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10075&stc=1&d=1198176638
Upside Potential
I am looking for a move to the 227-228 area. The pair needs to rise above and remain above the red (4hr) and purple (daily) trendlines to resume the uptrend. Failure to do so would signal another strong leg down.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10087&stc=1&d=1198235967
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10077&stc=1&d=1198180089
ْْGbyJpy
what's your adia about these ellit's
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10089&stc=1&d=1198251826 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10090&stc=1&d=1198251839
GbpJpy
what;s your adia about these elliot garphs ?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10091&stc=1&d=1198252047 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10092&stc=1&d=1198252056
ْGbpJpy
hi
what is your idea about these charts ? http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10101&stc=1&d=1198336719 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10102&stc=1&d=1198336731 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10103&stc=1&d=1198336742
GbpJpy
Hi
what is your adia about these charts ??
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10104&stc=1&d=1198337356 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10105&stc=1&d=1198337386 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10106&stc=1&d=1198337411
Intra-day analysis Hello
As the market is about to close within 8 hours, price action is limited. GBP/JPY has been flat the last few hours. I don't expect a big move before the market would close, but I believe at least it would give us a hint to where next it will go.
GBP/USD has been affecting GBP/JPY mroe than USD/JPY lately. GBP/USD is still flat testing support @1.9809 -Lower Bollinger band-, while USD/JPY is also flat testing resistance @114.18 -New high I believe-.
I'm cautiously waiting for a break out in any direction. I hope both GBP/USD USD/JPY would be bearish as opposite moves would tame out the trend & reduce the volume of the price action. Still on medium term USD/JPY is indeed bearish, but I hope it won't make a new higher extension before the leg down. While GBP/USD is showing bearish signals on hourlies I still believe an uptrend is to be expected in the few coming weeks. A breakout below the current level would delay that uptrend.
P.S:
I was planing to post my week end analysis last weekend, but since my last post appeared only today after being post by whole three days, I was quite unimpressed, & was about to lose interest in posting in the forum, but the problem was fixed in my last couple of replies somehow.
Yet I attached the charts I took last weekend before the market would open again. I hope you benefit from them without the comment. -Sorry! Don't have time to write it again! http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/redface.gif-
Regards
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10123&stc=1&d=1198489041 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10124&stc=1&d=1198489060 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10125&stc=1&d=1198489079 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10126&stc=1&d=1198489093
Strength in GBPUSD has helped push GBPJPY higher as well, though the pair has run into resistance near 227.00/25. I think we could see GBPJPY pull back a bit this morning, but a push through noted resistance would be undoubtedly bullish and could target 233.50/65 (as we've been talking about).
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10155&stc=1&d=1198740961
The yen rally this morning has been impressive. I have been watching USDJPY's tumble since about 10 our time and I was pretty engrossed in the move. Of course, I thought this was predominately due to the poor US data, but it seems to be more than that as it is happening in most of the yen crosses. While the yen buying coming off the dollar downdraft likely has a lot to do with it, I'm thinking the drop in equities and government debt yields is pulling a risk move (though commodities oddly enough are doing very well) and the medium to long term fundamentals behind the pound are starting to really weigh on the currency (check the lack of GBPUSD motion after the disappointing US data) now that end of the year position squaring is done.
IMO, if GBPJPY closes below 220, it will mark a significant break. That level has clearly stood as (lose) support for more than a year now, and its passing has a big exclamation point behind it with this wide range bar. Since the move has already been so large, I will wait for a 215 to give before I consider a long term short. Rising trend on the monthly chart pulls next support there and the first big fib from 2000 lows to 2007 highs comes in just below 212.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10251&stc=1&d=1199303314 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10252&stc=1&d=1199303318
Gbpjpy Monthly Chart Looks to me like the bears might still be hungry lol
Intraday we are obviously oversold but a look at the monthly chart supports more movement south.
Good luck everyone!
- Happy Trader
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
PS. This is my first posting here. Look forward to further participation.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10359&stc=1&d=1199491655
GBPJPY Monthly Chart
Here is a monthly view of GBPJPY. The chart clearly shows that there is room south. Further, the EMA pairs signal a sell.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10368&stc=1&d=1199533867