Sometimes its helps to look at crosses to dictate strength and weakness within a currency. Yesterday, I posted a chart of the Gbp/CHF in which I was looking for a 5th wave down.(http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...nt=6939) Thats should start once traders are done selling of the Swissie and as I am patiently awaiting the trade. Now the Eur/Chf is showing a sell off coming but at at different degree. Whereas Gbp/chf awaits a 5th wave down, Eur/Chf awaits a wave 3 down. To me that foreshadows a much weaker Euro than pound to come. Target for Eur/Chf is 1.65.
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that price important? becuase if this is a wave 2, then thats the price where C = 100% of wave A. I did take a VERY SMALL short position at 1.6321 but will add only if a bearish signal by day's end. If not, my stop is tight. Its still the begining of the week and there is still some big news coming out this week so it might be wise to sit on your hands and see how things develop along the way.
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For the elliotician, the pattern made by the EUR/USD rally throughout the night and into the US session is unmistakable. It's a clear 5 wave rally and 3 wave decline almost in perfect proportion. Also, there's a nice bullish candlestick showing for wave C on most of the dollar pairs showing that the pressure at least in the short term, is to sell dollars. It might be too early to say it's formed a bottom and is on its way to a new high above 1.61, but it's quite possible.
I'm often leary when wave structures are too perfect, but I still trade them nonetheless. Selling dollars looks good!
American-T
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AT,
Thanks for pointing the 5 wave rally out! I am posting the same chart using your count. Wave C ret. a perfect 50% of the 5. Osc. have plenty of room to run as well. I guess it just needs to get over the wave 5 high and it should be off from there. :-)Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14276&stc=1&d=1210001321
I sometimes view a line chart b/c the waves jump off the screen. This is the EURJPY. The rally from near 150 is clearly in 3 waves and the recent fall from 165 is an impulse. A 3rd wave will occur soon (165 is risk).
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14283&stc=1&d=1210008866
It is already closed but you can always try the gap on the EUR/GBP one hour chart which is still open.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14285&stc=1&d=1210016062
Here is another gap that did not get closed yet on the EUR/USD.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14286&stc=1&d=1210016594
AUDUSD update ...Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14301&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210072791
Possible EURUSD count ...
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Here is the chart for the NASDAQ, the way i see it. Frequently on these pages we discussed that Nasdaq should go to around 2470, at which point wave A = wave C. Now, this target has been reached. Major decline should follow. All major indices show a similar pattern, which is reassuring.
Mike
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14309&stc=1&d=1210087954
For those dollar bulls, Aussie is approaching that all important .9500 level while just completing 5 up. Question remains :IS this a 1 of something bigger or can this be a 5th wave truncation perhaps? Heres a possible bear count.
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NZDUSD update ... targets closed.
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Hey FX,
I don't know what makes you so sure. Since the end of February price has flirted with the .95 level 4 times and has yet to break above it. Its clear this is a level of very strong resistence. We did surpass it once but have yet to close above it on a daily. Il stick with my 5th wave truncation until proven wrong.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14316&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210094586
If this is a 5th wave it has further to go ... we're probably seeing 1 of 5 underway ... if this count is correct, it looks like one more leg is needed to complete 1.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14315&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210093644
This is not an impulse, its waves are overlapping. That means that it is a correction and that we will see a new low (below 95.72) eventually. The USDJPY may break lower soon as it tests this trendlineAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14318&stc=1&d=1210096175
also, a general comment on the dow (implications for carry). volume moves with the underlying trend. the entire rally has been on decreasing volume, so don't get too excited if you are bullish stocks and carry. be excited if you are bearish though.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14319&stc=1&d=1210096377
Usd Jpy
Here is the USDJPY count I am following, with the last wave v being truncated.
Mike
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Aus/Usd
This could be a possibility for the aus/usd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14331&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210108921
Good day all, back from my day job and saw this opportunity.
I think we are completing wave 2 correction in the eur/chf. if it doesn't go beyond 163.46
Tight stop and if it is correct good return .Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14329&stc=1&d=1210107497
Nzd/usd
This is my 3rd selection for tomorrow whill I'm at my day job. When I get home hopefully one of the 3 will take and i can smile.
Have a great evening
Gordon
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I am also looking for the top in AUDUSD.
I believe that we have seen the end of wave 5 up at around 0.9505, just an hour ago.
Please see my 5 min chart below.
I shorted the pair at 0.95, stop 0.955
MikeAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14337&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210113923
Aud Usd
Thanks for the vote of confidence Mike, I feel better.
Note the times on my chart. when it breaks the trend line I'll add to it.
Gordon
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I am also short EURCHF as of earlier today.
Here is some of my rationale and the chart below.
1. Wave A up was from 1.5331 to 1.5956 = 625 pips
2. Wave B from 1.5956 down to 1.5721 = 235 pips
3. Wave C from 1.5721 to 1.6346 = 625 pips
Another way of counting shows me the top of this correction at 1.6395, if I count each single subwave of the last leg. But, since this rally is/ was running out of steam, the last subwave might be shorter (86 pips instead of 130, in this case. Not a big deal, anyway).
In any case, we are close to the top, possibly we have seen the top already.
Your short term count would point in that direction, too. Plus, few other guys on this forum (Italm yesterday, for example) also pointed this pair out.
One thing is certain, though. It is a major turning point, once every few months; if we get it right, it will be a nice, big catch.
MikeAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14339&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210116643