Update from last night.... We got the one more push lower I was looking for and a nice divergence on the EO. Looking for a larger correction from here.
http://i25.tinypic.com/syt30y.jpg
Dow Jones hourly. Chart taken 4/25 12:30 pm ET
Here's a look at this week's DJIA hourly chart. It seems to have completed, or close to completing a correction. The five wave up shown in the chart should be a C wave. If Dow goes down, it should drag the JPY pairs along with it.
http://www.geocities.com/zhliew/trading/JPY/DJIAhourly0425.jpg
Gbp/jpy
Hey Guys,
The five minute chart of GBP/JPY below shows a corrective decline which indicates that there is still upside potential remaining. The decline from 207.62 is in eleven waves, which is a corrective pattern. Maybe a tripple three or something.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13938&stc=1&d=1209148294
Nzd/usd
Hey Guys,
The Kiwi seems to be following along with the rest of the market. A move below 0.7779 will complete a five wave decline, and confirm a downtrend. A retracement into fib resistance will offer a good trade setup to the downside.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13940&stc=1&d=1209149960
Gbp Aud
Hi
Gbp Aud End Of Wave 3
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13942&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209150731
Gold
End Of Wave 5:1 To Go Ret A-b-c
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13943&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209151137
Updated AUD/USD chart as it stands now (Friday close).
Wave C of 2 will equal 1.618 x wave A of 2 at the 50% retracement of wave 1 as long as the current wave B low does not get taken out.
http://i29.tinypic.com/2wcno6b.jpg
Usd Jpy
will try to post chart now, server seems to be up.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13948&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209168904
Haven't checked out this pair for a while since it was a bit unpredictable recently. I do remember seeing someone say that 2.06 was a possibility and seeing that there are 2 trend lines just ahead this could be possible once they are broken.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13950&stc=1&d=1209174706
Not sure if this is labelled but we shall see. Looks like we have one more wave up in a wave 5 which should stay below the daily trend line in green just above 214.00.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13951&stc=1&d=1209175944
AUD/USD Divergence/Cycles
Here are two charts showing the EW Oscillator and divergence on the weekly chart (1) and the daily chart (2). Notice the last time we had this divergence, it lead to a 850 pip move. I would also note the very bearish weekly candle we were left with on Friday.
(1)
http://i29.tinypic.com/2q1rkh0.jpg
(2)
http://i27.tinypic.com/kd9yfd.jpg
This last chart shows where I think we are at in the weekly cycle. The dashed blue line is the 1/2 cycle. It should turn down and meet up with the full cycle at the bottom (wave 3). The daily cycles (not shown) have already started down and have more room to go for a cycle bottom (wave 3).
http://i31.tinypic.com/elb4ly.jpg
Over analysis
Recently I saw a comment that wave 2's are often sharp, fast and deep. Then another comment, I think by Jamie on the EURUSD, that they are often shallow in fast markets.
So now I am second guessing myself. Zooming in on the correction of what I think is Wave 2 on the hourly chart of the AUS/USD, I am not sure we will go past the 38.2% retracement.
Depending on how the market moves up towards that area (assuming it does), I might short at .9370 and risk to just above the top of wave 4 (.9421)
I guess it is also possible that we have only completed 3 waves down and need another push lower before wave 2 begins which would also fit this scenerio. (I am relying on the divergence in the EW Oscillator indicating that this is not just a minor correction down before a new high.)
Analysis paralysis! http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/eek.gif
http://i29.tinypic.com/243m5nm.jpg
cable
My number for GBPUSD as in the chart
Does anybody have an opinion/ comment?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13955&stc=1&d=1209246848
My number for GBPUSD that I posted here a couple of days ago was 2.01 area, since at that level wave C = wave A.
Incidentally, Jamie posted the same number, too.
After seeing your chart, 2.01 makes even more sense.
MikeAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13953&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209228651
Usd Index
Good Morning, guys
Here is a short excerpt from Jack Crooks regarding upcoming FOMC rate cut next week. The graph attached says it all. For most of us on this Forum it is probably just a confirmation, but it is nice to see second opinion.
""Given the way things stand, I’d say a rate cut of 25 basis points or fewer likely won’t kick off an extended dollar decline. And if the Fed does opt out of rate cuts this time around, it would be a huge departure from expectations leading up to the decision.
That, of course, could kick off a sharp dollar rally.""
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13952&stc=1&d=1209226939
Nasdaq chart
Is this the end of this intermediate rally since March 17 in stock market, as evidenced by Nasdaq? If yes, it will have major implications for USDJPY.
My chart below shows that there is a good likelihood that the rally is over effective now.
The retracemnet was only 41% until now, close to fib 38%.
Mike
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13949&stc=1&d=1209171540
Here is another idea, I guess.
MACD and other oscillators indicate that what you call wave 5 is really wave iii and we should see one more wave down of around 130 pips before we will see a correction.
Once we go below 0.9286, we will have semi-reliable confirmation.
MikeAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13957&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1209261488
Could it be that we are still in the wave 4 for EUR/USD now?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13963&stc=1&d=1209325713
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-10 19:28 编辑 ]
Eurusd
Here is what may be happening in the EURUSD. If the critical price (CP) is exceeded, then T1 and T2 come into play.
http://i31.tinypic.com/2a9yxqa.jpg
Audusd
Here is what may be happening in the AUDUSD. If the critical price is exceeded, then the target comes into play.
http://i27.tinypic.com/f05hj7.jpg
Hello Strider
I'm bring this chart of yours forward :
I think it's among the best of the longterm Gbp/Usd charts posted in here ( longer term )
mainly because it has no overlapping of wave 4 over wave 1 in it
anyone thats been in here over the last 3 months or more should not
be posting charts with overlapping 4th waves over wave 1 anymore .
This chart could prove itself to be significant from a longer term standpoint
within the next 2 weeks - 3 weeks of trading ...............
Great Work-http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif
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http://i29.tinypic.com/1y3l3s.png
Hi Justy,
can you update this chart ? .........................thanx
can you update this post ? .........................thanx
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13964&stc=1&d=1209328316
one possibility
one bullish view I am considering
Reason being is the ending diagonal C. They often get retraced fully and then some
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13965&stc=1&d=1209344942