Watch for a reversal in the USDJPY and Yen crosses. Elliott channeling suggests an end to wave iv very soon.
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euro
Wave C of a flat can be impulsive - therefore I've labelled it as follows. What do you guys think of this count?
Silver
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Another possibility
Found support at this line. There may be one more leg up so best to wait for a daily close below 5850 and confirmation will be a break below 5670.
Silver
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gbpusd
WELL WELL... look at the bounce in GBPUSD .... Finding support once again at the 38.2 level which caused a substancial bounce last time... I think we might just be heading back upward in this pair.. http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
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Morning Ray.... I don't disagree with you that USDJPY may be going up ... If this decline since the 125.00 area is a leading diagonal.. The waves are hard to count.. I would expect an ABC pattern in wave 2 to play out before we continue the decline ...Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13542&stc=1&d=1208445412
GBPJPY Last Night To Today
UPDATE On Position from last night... Long GBPJPY from 200.75 ... Stops now at break even... http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
I know marketwavez likes when the results are posted .. so here it is for all 2 see... http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
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Before you guys get too excited with the yen pairs I would caution you...
If the yen cannot close this month above horizontal resistance, you can bury the carry trade and the appetite for risk for a long long time.
This is the USD/YEN. So it shows YEN strength.
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cable
Update from earlier as i know market likes Updates http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Ray
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This correction thing is going to drag on forever...
Greetings people. Wild day huh? Two charts I'd like to share today. First up EUR/USD. This thing is either in the 4th wave of a diagonal or an expanded flat. Either way, I expect it to fall toward the bottom trend line. If it's a diagonal it should bounce right off the trend line to complete wave 5. If it's an expanded flat it's going to pierce right through it to target the lower 1.5300's. An observation: The decline from 1.5984 this morning can be counted in 5 waves on the 15 min chart. Whether this means anything I don't know, because the action kinda stalled after that.
http://www.geocities.com/zhliew/trading/euro/euro4hr0417.jpg
Second chart USD/CHF. I saw AT's chart and I agree with his overall dollar bearish view. But the lack of a downward terminal thrust leads me to believe that wave E is not done yet. The end of wave E should be along the upper trend line around 1.0170. There are clearly 3 internal waves for each of waves A, B, C, and D. I just don't see it yet for wave E.
http://www.geocities.com/zhliew/trading/CHF/CHF4hr0417.jpg
As for USD/JPY, my take is that it's going to fall but I don't know when. This pair reflects the action of the stock market rather than currency strength. But make no mistake about it: the stock market is going to crash. It's just a matter of time.
In short, dollar bearish, but correction could go further. Of course the ideal scenario is USD/CHF moves upward to complete wave E as EUR/USD moves down toward the bottom trend line, and then they both thrust out of the triangle in opposite direction to complete wave 5. But it sounds too perfect. Analysis is never perfect.
I believe we have or are just completing wave A. I am able to count 5 waves in this decline from the high which I believe was the end of wave 5.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13558&stc=1&d=1208456570
I don't think that I have seen this count yet but I like it. Wave I ends with a truncation (if you look at the makeup of the 1.2458-1.2909 rally, it is in 5 waves). Wave 1 of III is a leading diagonal. Wave 3 of III is 1607 pips and wae 1 of III is 1370 pips so no worries about wave 3 being the shortest. This count is more bearish because instead of being the top of wave 3 of III as I had previously thought, we are at the end of wave III so a larger 4th wave correction is expected. The 38.2% comes in near 1.45, in the vicinity of the previous 4th wave.
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EURGBP.....looks like 5 waves down to me on the 15 min so its safe to say that we should see at least one more leg down...look for resistance near .8040/50.
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Gbpusd
Trend Line 1 Broken ! .... Hmmm ... Long Now ?? Or play it safe and wait for trend line 2 to break ?? Decisions Decisions ... Given the state of this market... I think I will play close to the vest with GBPUSD... I am waiting for price to penetrate the next trend line before getting long... I think we are on our way up...
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GBPJPY bounce back to test the trendline ??
GBPJPY closed above the down trend line today... Now that today's session is over... We should see GBPJPY bounce back down to test the trend line in over night trading... Keep your eyes peeled for a long entry if you missed out yesterday... The trend line resides right around the 202.50 area.. http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-9 06:09 编辑 ]
Nope I missed the boat and am still floating with my life jacket.http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/redface.gif Actually since I was expecting a large decline soon I had a stop at a fraction above 205.12.
Seeing your chart, and just looking at mine with being able to count 5 waves up, I am wondering if a hedge might be a better play and then a reversal short around 210.00. I think I may wait a bit to see if price retreats a bit into a possible wave A and close out for a long. Either this or I am way out to lunch which is quite possible.http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/tongue.gifAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13562&stc=1&d=1208459036
Jamie,
I came up with a slightly different structure, but same conclusion. Agreed that EUR/USD is nearing the end of wave III instead of wave 3 of III.
http://www.geocities.com/zhliew/trading/euro/euroweekly_frm_1.jpg
Yen index
Hello guys
Just take a look at the yen index (opposite from yen crosses, but mostly reflection (mirror image) of USDJPY), weekly interval.
To me, there is rather little doubt that the yen index is going up, even if it is undergoing a correction right now. I think that it is hard for anybody to make a bearish argument. Plus, we are in the midst of carry trade unwinding, which is supportive fundamentally to yen.
We do not know, if the correction is finished yet. I will post another chart (daily) later on that will argue that the correction is done now.
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Yen Index
Hello guys
let's take another look at the yen index (mirror image of USDJPY) on the daily intervals.
My argument is that the yen index will go up now and that, in fact, it has completed already wave i and wave ii retracement and now it will start wave iii of 1.
My reasoning is on the chart.
There is no assurance, just my hypothesis.
Mike
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Swiss Franc Index
Hi Guys,
Here's a chart of the Swiss Franc Index. The fourth wave triangle is still intact. It should be noted that while price action was trending sidways in the triangle, the MACD was trending lower. This is a powerful signal that tells us that when the MACD turns higher again, price will follow. Furthermore, just as a side note, wave three extended right to the 161.8% fib extension of wave one. According to EW theory, we should see wave five equal wave one. So in the index we'll be looking for a target of ~105.75. Looking to the USD/CHF then, we could see a wave five decline run about 750 points. That would be a rough target of ~0.9350. Like AmericanTrader has been saying, we can keep risk at 1.0217 before the triangle idea is destroyed. With price trading at 1.0050 right now, that would give a risk:reward of 167:700, or ~1:4. I'm playing this as a swing trade and not looking for an entry on the shorter time frames, so I'm in it now looking for 'the big decline.' I'll be moving stops to breakeven when price breaks out of the triangle, which is at 0.9870. That will then give me a risk free trade.
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Nikkei
Here's an interesting relationship. The chart below is a daily chart of the Tokyo Nikkei Index. This index and USD/JPY are tracking together quite well. When there is a reversal in the Nikkei, there is also a reversal in the USD/JPY. However the amplitude of the waves on the two charts are a little different.
It's clear that the Nikkei is headed lower. I've got the chart below labled with wave one and an extended wave three completed. Wave four is forming right now. Obviously then, another low is required to complete a five wave decline. So when the Nikkei turns lower, so will the USD/JPY.
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GBPUSD M5 countAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13575&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1208480257
Brad
Just looking at the EUR/CAD daily and I am beginnning to think that a long entry may only come down to around 1.5700. I could have it labelled wrong though. I was hoping it would come down to below 1.5600 but that is lower than my wave iv. Thoughts?
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