Below are the only two viable wave counts for the EUR/USD, and both are ultimately bullish. The immediate bullish count is the preferred count as long as 1.5577 isn't broken. If it does, then the triangle will move to the forefront.
One key element these two counts have in common:
1.5531 will not be broken before a new all time high is achieved.
American-T
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13019&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207192150
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Justy, good writeup ...
I use the RSI indicator to signal turns in price trends. However, I only use it when I am trying to predict the end of wave 5 of intermediate or primary degree in my EW analysis. For example, the chart below illustrates how I used RSI to predict the turn in the most recent EURUSD price trend. Note that the RSI indicator printed a lower high on 03/17 than the high on 02/27 then trended down thereafter. In contrast, prior to 02/27, the EURUSD trended up as it underwent wave 5. The change in EURUSD price trend was confirmed when the RSI printed a lower high on 03/26, and the price trend subsequently printed the lower high labeled wave 2. The dressing is put on the cake when the drop from wave 2 high in the price trend test and break the inner most trendline, which hasn't occur yet.
For the break of inner trendline, I look for a bearish candle with the body completely below the trendline. When this occurs, price trend should then move to take out the intermediate trendline, then the outer trendline (not shown on chart).Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13024&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207217711
Eurusd
Here is my new count ... I am currently using gold as a proxy to EURUSD so I also post a gold chart ... lower gold implies higher greenback, which implies lower EURUSD. I am expecting the current 5-wave of higher degree down in EURUSD to end when wave v in the gold count ends.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13025&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207218661
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13026&stc=1&d=1207218682
Nzdusd
Here is my NZDUSD count ... looking to get short at 61.8% retracement level with stop behind 0.7995.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13027&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207219942
correction to my last EURUSD post ... corrected waves i and ii placements.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13029&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207220416
Here is my current USDCAD count.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13034&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207225277
eur
Hi Guys
this is what i see, i wonder if anyone can comment, Jamie are you following the same count?
iii of 3 we could be in for nice afternoon?
Thanks
Ray
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13037&stc=1&d=1207230052
Possible expanded flat on EURUSD?
Hi everybody,
here is a probable scenario to keep in mind if the current favorable wave count fails. Wave ii could be an expanding flat, with wave C of the A-B-C correction underway now. Under this scenario price should exceed 1.57.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13038&stc=1&d=1207236038
AT, here is my GBPUSD count ... can you post yours so that we can compare/contrast ... thanksAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13039&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207240358
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13040&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207240376
Eurcad
Anyone pay attention to my post for the long term EURCAD last month ?? Price has closed last month above a long term down trend line indicating upside potential.. I'm looking to get long EURCAD after a retracement.... Watch the daily's for a buy http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13043&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207246951
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http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13046&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207247007
Thought I would throw this out here. This is the GBP/JPY count I am following at the moment.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13047&stc=1&d=1207248556
Hi Gizmo.. I'm looking to get long right around 1.5500 which is the 50% Fib retracement of the last large rally... I think this next rally could extend a lot higher, I'm setting a target for half of the position at the previous high and will be using a trailing stop to close out the second half.
Here's another chart for ya http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13049&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207249380
Now that I am home and looking at my working charts I see what you are describing on the daily chart. I also have this as a wave 4 correction. I had resistance at 201.78 which was broken. Currently I believe we are in and possibly almost completed wave B or wave 4 following the count I have.
If we are entering C shortly then we should make it back to around the 201.00 level. From there it will either continue down or under the other scenario, go up to around the 210.00 or 211. level which is around the 50% fib line.
Anyone who is following this pair with more experience may have a different or more accurate count.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13053&stc=1&d=1207272469
This could be considered a wave A then?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13061&stc=1&d=1207317144
Here's my short term 15 minute chart which shows a possible impulse rally, but it is very ugly to say the least, and my confidence in this is a bit low. Wave 3 is barely larger than wave 1, and wave 4 is much larger in time compared to wave two. It just doesn't look right.
I think it's important to allow for a setback into the mid/low 5600s, but keep in mind that pair is headed to new highs, so the larger trend is up.
American-T
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13063&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207317846
Here's the possible triangle that might be playing out. Seeing as that this fits into the "alternation" guideline in EW, and that last possible impulse rally (see my 15 min chart) was terribly ugly, this scenario is gaining stature. Under this scenario, the pair will also pull back to the low 5600s. So it appears some pullback is possible either way. I think it's important to remember that the larger trend is up, so it can go up at any time.
American-T
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13064&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207318063
Here's my daily chart, showing the bigger picture. I don't maintain this count on my software so I put this together fairly quickly. Let me know there's an error. The bottom line is that we still need to complete a wave 5 to a new high, of 5 of 3.
American-T
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13065&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207318224
This one entertains me because I rarely trade it, but the crystal clear impulsive rally a couple weeks ago had me always looking higher in this pair. It's worked out well. I'm not totally confident in this exact wave count, so I'm going to remain flexible. However the rise looks impulsive, and it looks far from complete.
Congrats to anyone who jumped on this after my post, when the price dropped to around .9120 (stop below .9090) and got in at an excellent risk/reward ratio, which is what I'm all about.
American-T
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13067&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207318939
Here is a chart of what I believe is happening with the EUR/GBP.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13070&stc=1&d=1207322210
With the spike above 205.00 overnight, I have modified my chart to make it more valid in my eyes. I believe we are either still in wave A or starting into wave B. Since I am still learning EW, are there any comments or changes that would make it more valid?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13071&stc=1&d=1207322959
I would think a triangle is more appropriate than a larger flat. Correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that the internal structure of a triangle correction should be in 3's, which means that each of the ABCDE waves in a triangle should consist of 3 subwaves. A flat, on the other hand, is a 5-3-5 structure. I just don't see the decline from 1.5905 to 1.5342 as completed in 5 waves. Also, I have a hard time labeling the decline from 1.5895 to 1.5509 as wave 1 of C. The internal structure just looks weird.
http://www.geocities.com/zhliew/trading/euro/euro4hr0404.jpg
http://www.geocities.com/zhliew/trading/euro/euro4hr0404_2.jpg
Anyway, even if it's a flat, the end of wave C should not be too far away from the low of 1.5342, and it will eventually move up. Either way, the larger trend is up. A flat only implies a deeper correction.
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/attach/pdf.gifGBPJPYdaily040408.pdf (27.0 KB, 14 views)
EURJPY Uptrend Intact ??
I gotta say, EURJPY is quite the elusive pair !! Not too long ago price was looking like it was going to start to crumble... Now Look at it... Price is staying above the Long Term Up trend line and looks like it might continue higher now... My short was stopped out near break even for a small profit... Now I'm kind of thinking Bullish this pair again... Decisions Decisions...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13076&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207331530
Yeah, the EURJPY is one sick puppy...but if we look at the log scale chart (and I do believe that you should look at long term charts on log scale), then the line was broken in January. A re-test would be near 165 thoughAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13077&stc=1&d=1207334328
Wave 3 about to begin??
I think Wave 3 is about to begin in EUR/USD. Thoughts??
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13081&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207358092
I agree that the longer term picture is still pointing lower. The impulsive move that began way back in 1975 isn't complete yet. We still need to see another low (below 88.87) to complete that five wave move. Even if the fifth would come out as a truncated wave, there is still several thousand points of potential remaining.
The short term count I have below shows that one more high is required to complete an A-B-C correction that may complete the larger correction. Once this A-B-C is complete, we could possibly see the decline resume.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13084&stc=1&d=1207361023 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13085&stc=1&d=1207361068
Gbp Jpy Weekly
Good Morning guys
Here is my chart of GBPJPY, weekly intervals.
No doubt, there was a head and shoulder situation.
It looks like we finished 3 waves down, now we are into wave 4 correction.
MACD confirms this wave count.
Wave 1 = 3195 pips
Wave 2 = 2220 pips
Wave 3 = 4910 pips
Wave 4 = started recently
Wave 5 = not started yet, but could be equal to Wave 1
I will post more charts with closer blowup later today to show more detail.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13089&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207413385
Gbp Jpy Daily
Here is closer look at GBPJPY on the daily chart.
5 waves are finished now; at the moment we are undergoing wave 4 correction. Possibly, it can take us to the former wave 4 of lesser degree.
It looks like an A-B-C type correction, but who knows how it might play out yet.
For the time being we are still confined in the trading channel, but the pair will likely break it to the upside to complete the correction.
But, there is also a possibility that the correction might play out differently and it might be over even now, without reaching the destination point of 213, considering general weakness of GBP.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13090&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1207414624
JAIME ...What Is Going On ?? EURNZD
Hey Jaime.. What's your take on EURNZD now ?? This pair is a bit whipsaw.. I'm not too sure about this one.. I posted months ago looking for an ABCDE triangle to play out when you we're looking for a buy that actually wasn't too far off the mark from where price started heading up.... It doesn't look like my count is playing out... I'm thinking it might be time to get long this pair soon if it gets much higher... It would have been a great buy a while back.. But I was too scared of the whipsaw action then... Price is wedged near a long term declining trend line... tough call right now.. But looks like there is big upside potential given the prior waves over the years... Yet so much bearish sentiment in the market in general now... Jeeze !! Decisions Decisions ... Little Help ?? Jaime.. Anyone..
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13104&stc=1&d=1207454294 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13105&stc=1&d=1207454358