Gbp Jpy
It looks like GBPJPY will correct to 203, before dropping down in the form of Wave 5.
Likely within next few hours.
Mike
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The below chart is my now preferred dollar bullish count (EUR/USD). If the labeling is correct, then wave (i) at 1.5612 cannot be exceeded. But if there is some mislabeling on that the same degree, then ultimately wave 1 should provide key resistance at 1.5685, and is vital to the bullish count. As I'm writing this, the dollar is getting hammered, most likely in a wave iii of wave c of (iv). The way I see it now, the dollar is bullish unless 1.5685 is broken.
My stance now is to let this wave action play out. If the impulse move is fulfilled, then I'll get long the dollar on the large 3 wave setback that should follow.
American-T
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On the flipside, here is my dollar bearish alternate count that calls for a test/break of its prior lows (using the USD/CHF). I don't like this view anymore as it's getting a bit extended in time and price within the context of the wave structure it's supposed to be in. Regardless, if the dollar is going to make a new low, it needs to begin to do so soon, with a hard impulsive decline.
To supplement this bearish view I posted a chart that shows the stochastics failing to confirm new price highs in the pair for days. Although this bearish divergence can occur for a long time, and may just be a sign of the impending 3 wave correction following the impulsive dollar rally, it may also be a sign that a 5 wave rally may not play out at all. This is just another reason I'm on the sidelines waiting for the structure to play out. I highlight this bearish divergence on the second chart posted below using a 4hr chart.
American-T
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AT,
I'm somehow not in line with your count on eur/usd. After an impulse wave according to EW should follow a corrective structure to complete the cycle. Now you have a bigger wave (3) and then you start with wave 1 and 2 of lesser degree again.
In my opinion those waves should be wave (A) and (B) as part of a complex corrective wave W.
But hey that's just me.
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Hey Guys,
Here are my counts for EUR/USD. On the daily chart, I see an extended wave three completed. Wave four could head back down into the center of the triangle near ~1.4700. The hourly chart shows that price is getting ready to decline in wave '5' that would complete wave 'A' of a larger correction.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12728&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206422049
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EUR/GBP - Last Leg?
It looks like EUR/GBP has one more rally left before we finally see a top in place. A move above 0.7911 (16 March High) will complete five waves, which will then complete the larger wave three advance that began way back in July 2007.
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Usd/chf
It does make sense that we should see one more round of USD selling. The daily chart of USD/CHF shows that the decline from 1.1594 is only in three waves so far. And as AmericanTrader has shown in his charts, the recent short term rally is only in seven waves, which is corrective. So if we see short term price unfold in an downward impulsive manner, it may be a good idea to ride the USD/CHF to new lows below 0.9644.
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Hey JimboFX,
I am with you in the possibility that this dollar rally may just be a W-X-Y correction before the dollar makes new lows, as seen in my alternate count for the dollar using the USD/CHF (basically EUR/USD inversed).
My bullish dollar count has the EUR/USD already completing a very large wave III, yes. Then the correction should have impulse waves within it, going in the direction of the current trend, which is now down if it's in wave IV. So the waves at one degree lower than wave IV will be motive waves down until wave IV is complete.
I always assume the market will trace out an easy corrective pattern, like a zigzag, until it proves to me that is not the case. So my count supports that outlook until I see it is not possible, or unlikely, and then I'll change my count to the next best one. So my impulse wave count is that of a correction making up larger wave IV. Regardless, if the EUR/USD has formed a wave III top, the wave count of one degree small than wave IV will unfold in motive waves to the downside.
Check out my USD/CHF chart I posted again supporting the WXY correction as well as my EUR/USD count showing the wave IV scenario.
Until 1.5685 is broken, my preferred count will remain bearish on the EUR/USD.
The first chart below is my alternate bearish count using the USD/CHF, and the 2nd and 3rd are the bullish dollar count using the EUR/USD.
American-TAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12731&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206423787
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Sorry to say, guys, but several pairs, including GBPUSD, EURUSD and AUDUSD just crossed with presumed wave 4 into wave 1 territory.
That will create a new scenario.
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GBPUSD possible Big decline underway I was looking at GBPUSD on the longer term again and I think there is a possability we could be in a large wave "C" decline right now that will need to come under 1.7046 to complete. The Dow is going down, The U.S. Dollar is having a hard time, Great Britain is closely related. Maybe there's just enough bearish sentiment out there to send this pair down further then anyone expects.. If it does get that low it will be an awesome buy..
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Guys, here is my take on cable..... It's getting close to a critical level for that count to be valid.
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Dollar Weakness Continues?
Hey Guys,
The first chart below shows a daily line chart of USD/JPY (Black Line) and of USD/CHF (Red Line). The wave count is for the USD/JPY portion, but I overlaid USD/CHF just to show that the two are trading in unison. So if we're all expecting more weakness in USD/JPY, it only makes sense to expect the same in USD/CHF. The second chart is the daily bar chart of USD/CHF showing my preferred count. We should see one more decline to complete a five wave decline from 1.1594. The third chart shows a count for GBP/USD that was presented in here a few weeks back. The large five wave decline (Daily GBP/USD Chart) that most people think is wave 'A' or '1' of a new bear market, could very well be wave 'C' of an expanded flat. If that's the case, then the recent price action is a series of 1st and 2nd waves and is bullish.
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Ready To Plunge??
Looks like NZD/USD maybe ready to take a plunge. Thoughts??
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AUD/USD Ready Too???
AUD/USD may be ready to plunge also.
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i believe that we are witnessing a dilemma in the trading markets due to opposing forces of fundamental values and technical analysis.
From observing the charts it is obvious that the USD is trying very hard to show some form of life. But, fundamental information and a concentrated effort by the powers that be (mostly Fed with the applause of Wall street) are beating the dollar on the head each time, whenever it is attempting to recover. Let's face it; those year end bonuses for Wall Street are extremely tempting, he he.
As a result, my feeling is that the best and the safest pair to trade now are the yen crosses. Probably more predictable, too.
I agree with you as to the USDJPY count; I added more "future" waves. Likely, we will see wave iv going up some more to 103 +/-1 yen, which is the area of former minuette wave 4 of lesser degree, followed by a significant drop down to approximately 90 in the form of wave (iii).Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12760&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206498842
Eurusd
EURUSD will challenge previous high? It certainly looks like it might.
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After being stopped out numerous times in small short term dollar positions, it appears a larger trend may have finally presented itself and allow for a higher confidence trade. With the EUR/USD breaking both of my wave 1 extremes, and not completing 5 waves down, it's very likely the move down was just a correction. The break of 1.5685 and then 1.5700 with a nice five wave rally supports this view. The original WXY correction scenario I had, labeled on my USD/CHF chart, is now the preferred view.
Once again I have to switch my outlook and move to a bearish dollar stance. So the dollar is poised for a new low and the EUR/USD a new high. I have no more EUR/USD short positions at all now. I'll wait for a large 3 wave pull back to get long.
Any thoughts? ideas?
American-T
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AT,
here is something outside EW. Price is testing the previous up channel. Also I see a throw over in the smaller channel. Plus previous resistance around 1.5810/30. That area in my opinion represents a good confluence for a near term top.
By the way I still favour W-X-Y correction. We had (W) completed in three waves. Now we are in A of (X), then as you pointed out should follow B of (X) in three waves and then C of (X) in five wave maybe to a new high. From there I expect complex wave (Y) down to complete the correction.
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Hey Guys,
These are the trades I'm working on right now. I'm short USD/CHF and looking for new lows on the daily charts. Short USD/JPY with the same setup as the CHF. And once the GBP/USD completes it's five wave rally (60 minute chart), I'll be looking for an ABC to play out and then look to get long.
What do you guys thing?
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I think that the saving grace is the fact that the EURJPY pattern is quite clear at the moment. Wave iv is finished, now we are starting wave v. To make it easier, wave iv reached the top of wave i.
If wave v is equal to wave i, we should see wave 5 terminate at 158.15
Further, if wave 5 is equal to wave 1, it should also terminate at 158.15
In other words, 158.15 seems like a good entry point for a short.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12789&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206567179
Usdhkd
Was just poking around in some charts and I think I see a decline coming up for USD against the hong kong dollar... Some people trade it.. Thought I'd post it....
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Eurjpy Bearish Count
Thought I would throw up another idea for EURJPY... Starting with the monthly, who knows where we're at on the long term.. All we can say is that we are deffinately in a bear trend because the down moves over the years have been huge.. I labeled the daily chart best I could maintaining a bearish bias...
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