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光伏市场预测乐观,销售价格高企
Solar Market Forecast Rosy, High Prices
June 09, 2006
Solar Market Forecast Rosy, High Prices
A preliminary draft of the PHOTON Consulting's (Germany) Solar Annual 2006 has been posted and forecasts an optimistic future for the solar industry. Some highlights:
Six-fold production growth (40 to 50% annual growth) through the end of the decade.
Demand will significantly exceed supply through the end of the decade.
Production will reach at least 10 GW by 2010 (530% growth versus 2005).
Production of Si feedstock rising from 32,000 tons in 2005 to at least 85,000 tons in 2010.
Silicon usage per W to improve by more than 30%, from 10.5 g/W today to 7 g/W in 2010.
Realistic potential for non-c-Si to expand from 0.15 GW (9% market share) in 2005 to 2 GW (20% market share) in 2010.
With demand outstripping supply, prices will remain firm and revenue will expand quickly from $12.4 bn in 2005 to $18.8 bn in 2006 (51% growth) and $27 bn in 2007 (44% growth).
Costs are falling 7 to 10% throughout the supply chain (with exception of silicon) and pre-tax margins will continue to expand from 25% in 2005 to more than 30% in 2006 and more than 35% in 2007.
Modular global average selling price ($/W) will increase from $3.70 in 2005 to $4.50 in 2007 and then down to $4.00 in 2010.
Installed system global average selling price ($W) will increase from $7.53 in 2005 t0 $8.00 in 2006 and then decrease to $6.95 in 2010.
Up companies with the strongest growth prospects include REC, Tokuyama and Hemlock.
In the middle of the supply chain, Evergreen, Motech, Q-Cells, REC, Sharp, SolarWorld, SunPower and Suntech appear likely to achieve explosive growth.
光伏市场预测乐观,销售价格高企
the PHOTON Consulting's (Germany) Solar Annual 2006 初稿已发布,其预测光伏行业前景乐观.
要点:
1.2006-2010年间产能增长6倍(年增幅40%-50%);
2.2006-2010年底需求大大高于供给;
3.到2010年产能至少能达到10MW(比2005年增长530%);
4.多晶硅料的产量由2005年的3.2万吨提升到2010年的至少8.5万吨;
5.每W所用硅料减少30%,从目前的10.5g/W 减至2010年的7g/W;
6.non-c-Si 由2005年的0.15GW(9%的市场份额)增至2010年的2GW(20%的市场份额);
7.由于需求大大超过供给,市场价格将维持坚挺,年销售额将由2005年的124亿美元迅速增至2006年的188亿美元(增长51%)和2007年的270亿美元(增长44%);
8.成本将通过产业链(除多晶硅外)降低7-10%,税前利润率将从2005年的25%继续增至2006年的30%和2007年的35%;
9.全球组件的平均销售价格($/W)将从2005年的$3.70/W增至2007年的$4.50/W,然后缓慢降至2010年的 $4.00/W.
10.全球安装光伏发电系统的平均销售价格($/W)将由2005年的$7.53/W涨至2006年的$8.00/W, 然后下降,到2010年降至$6.95/W
11.上游的公司包括REC, Tokuyama and Hemlock会有强劲的增长;
12.产业链中游的公司如Evergreen, Motech, Q-Cells, REC, Sharp, SolarWorld, SunPower and Suntech显现出暴炸性的增长. |
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发表于 2006-6-11 23:19