一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hi Brad,

This is the count I've been following for a while now with the long term EUR/JPY. It's the same as the rest of the JPY crosses (USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY...) so it's a pretty high probability chance that we'll see price come under the October 2000 lows at 88.87.Attached Images






EUR/CHF Ready to Move Higher
Hey Guys,

Here's the count I'm following in EUR/CHF. Price reversed right at the 50.0% fib of wave i of 3. So if wave iii of 3 is underway now, we should see that move accelerate to the upside. The target is the 161.8% fib which is at 1.6049.
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hefeiddd

Cable
GBP/USD is giving me hard time counting the waves lately. Since my previous count was invalid I had to find an alternative. Here is what I came up with so far. The resent drop was in three waves suggesting a corrective move and since I still favour we are in bigger wave B correction then the move can be labeled Xx of B. From here I expect wave Z of B to a new high beyond 2.0396. And then we can see that drop in bigger wave C to new lows which we've been waiting for some time.

What do you guys think ?
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hefeiddd

carry trade
maybe some of you noticed this chart on the FXCM web site today.
I added few lines and it appears that the carry trade is plunging.
What does it mean to us? For those, who trade yen crosses it means that the general tendency of the yen will be to get stronger; other counter currencies will keep going down against the yen.
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hefeiddd

Here is my chart for USDJPY.
I believe that we are in wave 5 down now, which should go to around 94.



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hefeiddd

Cable
This is my count ...
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hefeiddd

Is EURO on its last leg???
It looks like EURUSD will be ready to tumble.
My chart shows a triangle scenario, upon which we will see wave 5 terminating around 1.595 or slightly higher.
Then, after, bye, bye Euro
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hefeiddd

Hi Ray,

I don't have a real good short term count for the EUR/GBP, but I'm not really that concerned with the short term right now. The daily chart seems pretty clear to me right now, so I'm just waiting until I see prices make new highs on the daily. Once I do, then I'll start looking at the shorter term to see if the pattern clears up any.

But... Looking at the 60 minute chart, I do see what could be an expanded flat correction. There is a definate three wave move (wave B) and a definate five wave move (wave C), so I just labled the whole thing as a wave two. That's kind of my 'working chart' right now, and I'll just wait until I see things clear up a bit to get a better count.

Also, the price zone around ~0.7900 has held three times now, so if price tests that level again it could very well pop up through that area and continue it's move higher.

- You mentioned seeing a triangle for wave four. Post a chart of that, if you don't mind. I can't seem to see one setting up.Attached Images

hefeiddd

I agree that we may not see 1.60 and I personally don't expect to see it in this uptrend, but maybe in the next one after the correction we all expect. Given that currencies have a nasty habit of playing tricks like you said, it would not surprise me though if we did hit it during the asian session with light volume and an asian central bank buying Euros as it did the other day.

We are currently still staying around the top of the triangle and have had an hourly close above it even if it the market is unsure of the direction. I also have my target for this round at 1.5950 and after that I will be waiting to see how this pair develops. To many uncertainties after that point at this moment in time.Attached Images







Playing around with the EUR/USD and am curious with the call for 1.60 could this be a possible scenario before the crorrection?

Ooops, just saw Mikes chart. Bit different but still the same basic idea. At least I am on the right track.
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hefeiddd

Hi , see chart below. let me know your thoughts.Attached Images

hefeiddd

euro
I expect a correction to at least 1.5650 or even down to 1.5550. a triangle will complete wave b while the thrust that will follow will complete wave c. the area 1.5600 - 1.5650 will offer stiff support as there we find the region of the previous fourth wave of lesser degree, wave C equalling .618 beyond end of wave A, Wave C equaling 1.618 of wave A as well as the 38.2% and 50% retracement level not to talk of the psychological number 5600.

if my count is right, we might end up seeing a new high in Euro before the correction we are expecting down to 1.4's.
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hefeiddd

cable
Hi All

Just wondered if this could be a valid count, still learning so comments welcome.

Thanks

Ray
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hefeiddd

GBPUSD Heading South
GBPUSD has formed a well-formed, bearish Header-Shoulders reversal pattern. Waves i and ii of lower degree has completed, and wave iii underway … this present windows of opportunities to get short on rallies.
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hefeiddd

I think your 4th wave had entered into the price territory of wave 1, which breaks the 3rd rule of EW theory: "wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1."

Here is my count ... not sure if it's correct ... share your feedback.Attached Thumbnails  











cable - daily chart
There hasn't been a reason to leave the bearish stance this week. Same with euro.
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hefeiddd

It is dangerous to trade any japanese crosses right now, you are totally corrrect.
They all undergo correction in wave iv. I attach a weekly chart showing japanese index (the reversal of USDJPY and EURJPY, etc)
i wouldn't short any crosses, until the correction is finished, and there is still some room of about few yen, by the looks of it.
MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Cable
Guys,
Let me cool you down a bit - I think that there is still way up for cable. Here is my count
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Sorry, man, but your wave 4 interferes with the wave 1 territory, which is not allowed under EW analysis.
I don't want to sound patronizing and I apologize for this statement.
Typically, contrary to some people on this forum, I see frequently wave 4 overlapping with wave 1, especially on short time frames, like 1h chart or shorter. But, such excursions must be really brief, few hours at the most and really shallow, 10-15% of wave 1, otherwise you need a new count.
Mike
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hefeiddd

US Dollar
Here a look at what may be occurring .......
Long @ 9972 Stop
9950 to hold as support

Targets ......... See chart below
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Only a Probabilty ! ..................Not cast in Stone !

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hefeiddd

Usd/Yen

Here are the results from this set-up from last week .....
( Trailing stop , got triggered )
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Original Post #5031

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Long @ 9785 , Long again @ 9980
Both were stopped out at the New Stop line @9872

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9785 - 9872 = Gain of 87 Pips
9980 - 9872 = Gain of 08 pips

Total Gain of 95 pips ............
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hefeiddd

Original Post #5039
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hefeiddd

Gbp Usd

Looking to next week -

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Only a Probability , .................Not Cast in Stone !

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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad

Keeping an eye on this market also ............

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Only a Probability , .................Not Cast in Stone !

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