一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Chakow, from the waves point 1.02 means nothing - so I dont get your point. Moreover, there is already a 5 wave move competed on the lower time frames, plus a possibility of and inverted Head & ShouldersAttached Thumbnails  

hefeiddd

Big Mike,

This is a weekly chart shown and is a beautiful setup. If this decline was a 3, then it just pierced the 161.8%. It could extend, but looking at the RSI, it is way oversold and due for a correction. I must admit, I usually don't post charts because I am rather new to this.

Happy Trading.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

AUD/USD count 60 mins chart Hi All,

Re the AUD, perhaps the recent low of 0.8951 was the end
of an A-B-C correction.

If this level holds, and "5 waves up/ 3 waves down" appear on the 5 min chart next week, I will turn bullish on AUD.

Regards.

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hefeiddd

When we look at monthly intervals showing GBPJPY action for last 12 years, I believe that we can draw some conclusions:
1. We are now in wave 3 down from 240 that will take us down to around 190
2. Wave 4 will go up to around 205
3. Wave 5 will take us to the support line at around 182

Any thoughts?
MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

If I expand your chart to a 1 hour to see where the other waves are I come up with something like what I attach below. By my count wave 1 is 500.7, and wave 3 is 1296 pips. So if we assumed wave 5 to be the same as wave 1, then it would have already been completed at 196.08 which is 500.7 pips from the start of wave 4 at 201.78.

Now chances are that my inexperience has me screwed up with this, or would this mean that the 5th wave will be extended? There is also in my opinion a triangle that has formed or are my lines incorrect for this. Am I making any sense at all?Attached Images

hefeiddd

I don't think that we are dealing with a triangle situation now, as the triangles can develop only in Wave 4, or wave B.
If what you are saying is correct, than wave 3 is finished now with a truncated subwave 5. At present we are seeing a combination correction in the form of an X wave.
Afterwards we will see continuation for the last leg down, which will be down to 182 level (see my previous post today), which is a long term cycle support, extending back to 1995.
I took your chart and added some numbers to show.
MikeAttached Images

hefeiddd

I have mine counted a bit different and showing as a the end of a possible "A" wave completed. It may go lower yet to the end of wave 4 area which is possible with the decline in oil and gold this week. Of course I do have a lot to learn yet and could be way off here too.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Gizmo, I am a long term kinda guy. Have a look at the chart for USDCAD going back to the 1970's.. I think price finished a wave 3 in 1974 and a wave 4 in 2002, or price was in a huge long term corrective structure which ended in 2002. The downward move seen from 2002 is very fast, and I believe it is a large wave 5. Price appears to have reversed just beyond the prior multi year low from 1974. There could be a multi year low is in place now at .9056 which could be labeled as wave 5.

However the down trend line has yet to be violated and confirm a new up trend. So basically what I am saying is, this is what I have to work with right now, but maybe the down trend is not over yet..

I've got my fingers crossed for a new up trend, but I can only go by what I see on the chart.. I try not to get mixed up counting shorter time frames, and if the decline from 2002 is a huge wave 5 then the structure would be harder to count on shorter time frames aswell.. The reason I look at the longer term stuff is because I like to be able to set it and leave it when I enter a trade and just move my stop to break even as soon as possible. This is a job, but I dont like to work... So if I can get into a longer term trade where I have to do nothing for a long period of time but sit back and watch the money come to me, then that is my goal because I'll get to work less and play more Attached Images

hefeiddd

Marketwavez
I do understand your logic in counting and that there is always a wave count present... But you stated yourself that everyone sees the world differently.. So allow me my enturpretation ...... Basically, for me, if I can not definitively count the long term chart to a degree that I feel accurate in my analysis then I try to stay away from counting shorter time frames as it becomes confusing... However shorter time frames do present good opportunities if you wait for them to present themselves in a clear wave count.. I like to ride the trend, that's my style, I also like to get in at optimal times, although there is the odd time when I try and call a top, which I have paid for...

Market... what do you say about this zig-zag in USDCAD from 1974 to 2002 ????? LARGE second wave ??? Now in Large 3 down ??? Larger Corrective Structure ??? Throw us a bone here Grand Master
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hefeiddd

Here's my Elliott Wave count shown on the USD/CHF 2hr chart which can be translated into other dollar majors signaling a dollar decline coming. I see a W-X-Y correction possibly complete already, and prices declining from current levels. Or, this possible triangle/consolidation will lead to a terminal thrust in a small 5th wave of c of (Y). Right now the price is currently at a prior wave iv and the 61% fibonacci level, so this a good reversal area. Or, a less likely scenario would have a terminal thrust up out of the triangle to the 78% fibonacci level before reversing.

If counting this as a correction is wrong, and the dollar is in fact rallying in a subdivided impulse wave, then these reversal levels are irrelevant. However with the prolonged rally and the stochastics dragging, some pullback is due regardless.

So the way I see it, whether the dollar falls in a correction, or to resume the larger downtrend for one more final low, either way the dollar should pull back some.

I'm playing this very cautiously and stops are tight.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Marketwavez, thanks! And good catch! I moved the i and ii to their appropriate spots. The foundation of the analysis is the same.

Thanks again. Now I gotta update the other postings, lol.

American-TAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

A new price high has been registered, eliminating the first preferred count. Further correction is possible to extend now.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Aud Usd
Time to short AUDUSD again for wave v, which will also complete wave 3.
Target around 200 pips from the top of wave iv.
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hefeiddd

Long term view of USD/JPY
Hi everybody,
the monthly chart of the USDJPY looks quite interesting from an Elliot Wave perspective. The big decline from the year 1982 through 1995 has unfolded in 5 waves, which i label as wave (3) of one larger degree. Now, regarding the price action from 1995 onwards i have two counts.

1) Black font labeling - a triangle has been completed on June 2007 as wave (4), and therefore prices should ultimately reach the price of 79.75 (black doted line), as wave (5).

2) Red font labeling - wave (4) is complete on August 1998, and the price action following can be treated as an ending diagonal wave (5). I am bit skeptical about this wave count, so i would like your opinion on this.

Thanks.
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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad

Before and After ............ !
Original Post #2466

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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad

Only a Probability!............ Not Cast in Stone !
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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad ---Daily Bars
Here is a look at what may be occurring -
-Price action appears to be moving towards an End of Wave C
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Only a Probability , .........Not Cast in Stone !
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hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd

Here we go again ,.........
- Price is now flirting with that 618 % line again ..........

( See chart below )

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Brad , here is my thinking ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Remember that hammer
you pointed out last week in your Usd/Cad posts ?

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Well let's look at it a little closer -

The low of the candle is .0950
The high of the candle is 1.0000

If you enter on the monthly hammer bar close at 1.0000 and put a stop
at the candle low of .0950 ......... this means 950 pips are at Risk
That's alot of pips to risk on only 1 trade ,,,,,Don't you think ?


Personally I'm looking for trades that can Risk say 90 pips or less
and there are also times that I look for trades to risk 200 pips ,
-The place I find this possible is on the daily bars or smaller bar time frames ........

So obviously the average bars are Larger on the monthly bar charts
in which translates to risking more pips per trade ............

This is my thinking , ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,This is why I don't trade monthly bars
Also please understand that I was only trying to be constructive in my response to you



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hefeiddd

Usd/Chf
Here is a trade set- up from 2 weeks ago
we had a little 1 day rally , and thought were off to the races .

Instead ,
I had to go lick my wounds on this one ......
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hefeiddd

Gbp Jpy
It looks like GBPJPY will correct to 203, before dropping down in the form of Wave 5.
Likely within next few hours.
Mike
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