一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Usd/Cad

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- Trade set-up from 2 weeks ago

The Usd/Cad- price entry of 9934 was triggered
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............Gain of 165 points today...............

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NO HINDSITE , NO OSCILLATORS , NO NEWS , & NO MEETINGS

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It's all in the chart's ...............Attached Thumbnails  

  

hefeiddd

Usd/Yen
Todays Update :
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Moving the stop price up ,to protect those Pipies......
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Long @ 9785
Long@ 9980
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Protective Stop @ 9872

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Targets ( See charts below )

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Only a Probability !.................. Not Cast in Stone!........

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hefeiddd

Aud/Usd

Just reached first target ...........

Now the Bulls are screaming Retreat, Retreat ! ...........

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hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd

Hi Jimbo ,

the Head and Shoulder you are observing has a rising neckline
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in which actually tells us something , but it's too early .........

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Meanwhile , See here :
We may have a baby Wave 4 in the making here ......

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hefeiddd

Regarding GBPUSD, I am looking for a small 4th wave to end near 1.9890 or so before a new low is registered in a small wave 5.
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hefeiddd

If NZDUSD is in the early stages of what I think is a large C wave, then price should remain below .8044 near term. This presents a shorting opportunity.
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hefeiddd

Cable short term
There might be an inverted -&S formation forming on shorter time frame. I'm watching the highlighted area. A break of the neckline and the downward channel may push the price to 1.99.

Just a thought...
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hefeiddd

Usdchf Major Reversal ?
Looks like we've got a hammer forming on the USDCHF weekly chart after a hefty down trend... Which would indicate a major reversal.. The count has been hard to label during the entire decline,, for me anyway.. I hate "B" waves !! But I do know when I see a reversal, aswell I am able to put an Elliott Wave count to the decline which would label it as complete. Might be a very good buy opportunity here.. I'll be watching for the close of this weeks candle... Which is 24 hours away.. If indeed we are left with a hammer at the close.. It might be time to get long next week...
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hefeiddd

Usdcad Weekly Chart 1.0200 broke today giving the go ahead for a long position... However we do not have confirmation of a new up trend yet. Be prepared to take profits on longs if the downward channel fails to break. If the downward channel does break, we have confirmation of a new up trend and I will be looking to add to my long position above there.
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hefeiddd

I couldn't agree more with this AUD/NZD analysis. For months I have received FXCM Research reports talking about the 2007 bullwave being a Wave 1 and the fall from 1.2091 to 1.1149 being a correction and how the price is going to shoot up to over 1.2031 etc etc. Readers have been waiting and waiting yet it never hppens; It's never going to happen. Even Jaime started to express how the pair "was trying his patience" a few weeks back as it stubbornly refused to show any semblance of a bullish 3rd wave. One glance at the Daily chart and that analysis all seems completely wrong to me.

Firstly the bearwave that crashed the price to 1.1149 is clearly impulsive (I don't care whether the previous bull run was impulsive or not - that fall is a sharp one way fall and there's no way you can split it into 3 waves). Secondly the entire price action since then has been the choppy sideways action typical of a corrective phase. Yet this time you CAN count three waves - the first to the 1.1594 high January 21, the second to the 1.1271 low February 7th and the third (Wave C) to the recent 1.1743 on March 7. Since then it's been one way downside action, again reminiscent of a third wave.

Finally I posted a thread including the weekly chart a few weeks ago supporting this bearish view and have just reviewed it. Weeklies show a giant triangle whose A wave started with the August 2006 high - the bullwave and bearwae mentioned above constitute the C wave and the first le of the D Wave. the choppy sideways action mentioned above is the second leg and we are now in the third. The lower trend line extending from December 2005, through July 2007 comes in at 1.0930 today but will be in the 1.13's by the time price reaches it. We are then going up again for Wave E. I attach this Weekly chart. The 10/20 day SMA's on this chart are now so bearish you can expect more downside action in the weeks to come.

Could Jaime Saettele please respond considering this alternative read, the attached Weekly chart analysis and with the above analysis of everything that has happened since last November, especially the form and structure and concede that his long held count might be wrong and further serve the interests of those deserters who believe in the above reading of the situation by furnishing us with his alternative bearish count including a downside target or lend credence to the attached weekly chart fndings.

Many thanks
Nick Rougier




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hefeiddd

So we could possibly be looking at a wave 4 as long as it stays below 109.27? Still learning so go easy on me.Attached Images






Taking a shot at narrowing down you GBP/JPY chart to a daily to see what might be occuring. The numbering may not be perfect (1 or i) but either way I think we may be in correction back to above 200.00 before we return south.

Had some time so I figured the only way to learn is to do it, post it, sit back and see from the comments if I am in the ballpark, outside at the gate waiting for tickets, or not even in the right city. Be gentle.
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hefeiddd

EUR/CHF Looks Bullish
Hey guys,

The rally off of the 1.5336 low has unfolded in five waves, so it looks like the bottom may be in place. Price is in wave 'C' of the corrective decline right now. Wave 'C' will equal wave 'A' at 1.5459. That is 18 points below the 61.8% fib retracement of the larger wave one. Support should be strong in that area.
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hefeiddd

Gizmo,

My count is different. I do think this goes up a bit though. My count is almost in-line with Jaime's.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

EURAUD Good Risk Reward
Good Risk/Reward if this is correct. Any thoughts??
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hefeiddd

gold
gold 60m
glod m5



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hefeiddd

When I go back and check I think you are right. I looked at mine again and checked the numbers and they did not work out since 3 would have been shorter than one.

So we would either be coming into a wave 4 to target teh 38.2 fib, or a smaller correction before it resumes an extension of wave 3, correct?Attached Images

hefeiddd

hi GIzmo
i think it will be like this
and lets share ideaAttached Images

hefeiddd

Good Morning guys and Happy Easter to all of you,
My count for GBPJPY is the same.
I believe that we are starting an impulsive wave v right now that is not done yet.
I am showing my chart starting back from the level of 251 back in the summer of last year until now, daily intervals.
I will post another chart with bigger closeup later.
MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Let's analyze now GBPJPY on a 2h chart, showing from around 213.5 at the end of FEB until now, which was the local extremum of the function.
It looks like we are starting descent into wave 5, which should be a significant low, before we will go into wave IV up.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Further, let's analyze the action of last week, since we reached the bottom of wave 3 on my previous chart.
I believe that we are into wave iii of 5, as you can see.

On the personal note, I find GBPJPY really deceiving; in fact i lost quite a few pips (read $$) attempting to trade this pair. But, if your count is correct, GBPJPY can be very rewarding.

I invite any of you guys' comments; let's work together and help each other like true friends.Attached Thumbnails