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- 2006-7-3
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发表于 2008-5-5 18:05
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I couldn't agree more with this AUD/NZD analysis. For months I have received FXCM Research reports talking about the 2007 bullwave being a Wave 1 and the fall from 1.2091 to 1.1149 being a correction and how the price is going to shoot up to over 1.2031 etc etc. Readers have been waiting and waiting yet it never hppens; It's never going to happen. Even Jaime started to express how the pair "was trying his patience" a few weeks back as it stubbornly refused to show any semblance of a bullish 3rd wave. One glance at the Daily chart and that analysis all seems completely wrong to me.
Firstly the bearwave that crashed the price to 1.1149 is clearly impulsive (I don't care whether the previous bull run was impulsive or not - that fall is a sharp one way fall and there's no way you can split it into 3 waves). Secondly the entire price action since then has been the choppy sideways action typical of a corrective phase. Yet this time you CAN count three waves - the first to the 1.1594 high January 21, the second to the 1.1271 low February 7th and the third (Wave C) to the recent 1.1743 on March 7. Since then it's been one way downside action, again reminiscent of a third wave.
Finally I posted a thread including the weekly chart a few weeks ago supporting this bearish view and have just reviewed it. Weeklies show a giant triangle whose A wave started with the August 2006 high - the bullwave and bearwae mentioned above constitute the C wave and the first le of the D Wave. the choppy sideways action mentioned above is the second leg and we are now in the third. The lower trend line extending from December 2005, through July 2007 comes in at 1.0930 today but will be in the 1.13's by the time price reaches it. We are then going up again for Wave E. I attach this Weekly chart. The 10/20 day SMA's on this chart are now so bearish you can expect more downside action in the weeks to come.
Could Jaime Saettele please respond considering this alternative read, the attached Weekly chart analysis and with the above analysis of everything that has happened since last November, especially the form and structure and concede that his long held count might be wrong and further serve the interests of those deserters who believe in the above reading of the situation by furnishing us with his alternative bearish count including a downside target or lend credence to the attached weekly chart fndings.
Many thanks
Nick Rougier
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