一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

五月 18, 2009 - 12:14 下午Some Favorite New Lottery Longs (1 of 2)

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hefeiddd

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Posted: 12:14 下午 | 41 insightful comments | Permalink

AHD (1)

hefeiddd

十月 07, 2008 - 07:56 下午Con DescensionThe social fabric is starting to tear. It's shocking and sad to start to read about the suicides, murder/suicides, and other violence that's starting to take place prompted by the nationwide meltdown. I imagine it's going to get worse over the years. Indeed, I think the social rage is going to reach a point where one or more of the super-rich execs (Richard Fuld or someone like that) will get shot down or otherwise killed. I'm not suggesting or condoning it; I am simply speculating that things are going to get so out of hand, that's how bad it's going to get. If I were one of these folks that had made hundreds of millions, I would probably leave the country and never go back. They're going to be hated. The little "shame, shame!" sessions we've seen in Congress the past couple of days are just the beginning.
I've reached the point where I've stopped listening to the bottom-pickers, including myself. I went long the market yesterday in a big way. I made out very well on my index calls, which I got out of this morning. Those calls would be huge losers (obviously) if I had simply hung on. As profitable as it has been, I'm starting to kind of hate this market. I feel like I'm a person who wants to catch fish, and there just happen to be bombers overhead dropping explosives into the pond. I'm able to get the fish, but the way I'm doing so is causing huge, horrible damage, plus it's terrifying.
You've probably seen, as I have, how economic cycles inflate different asset classes, and the last one to inflate is commodities. That's certainly what has happened recently. Remember all the hoo-ha this summer over expensive oil, expensive wheat, expensive gold, and expensive everything else? The air has come out of that really fast. I think we're heading for $50-$55 crude oil within a matter of months, if not weeks.

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What about wheat? Can you say "head and shoulders"?

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The collapse that is taking place in equity prices is obviously shocking. For goodness sake, Ford is at 1986 prices, and there's almost nothing in the way of support between here and the bottom in 1982.

hefeiddd

The collapse that is taking place in equity prices is obviously shocking. For goodness sake, Ford is at 1986 prices, and there's almost nothing in the way of support between here and the bottom in 1982.

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General Motors is even worse; Richard Nixon was in office when prices were at these levels.

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Some charts almost defy belief. Just look at the collapse here once support was taken out.

hefeiddd

Some charts almost defy belief. Just look at the collapse here once support was taken out.

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I have found technical analysis to be more helpful than ever during the collapse. Notice how BA is obediently staying beneath its broken channel.

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Some folks have asked about GOOG (down over 25 points today, and down nearly 60% from its high). It is at a major resistance level here. Break it, and down we go.

hefeiddd

Some folks have asked about GOOG (down over 25 points today, and down nearly 60% from its high). It is at a major resistance level here. Break it, and down we go.

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IBM is likewise at a pretty major resistance point (a fan line).

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XRX is sort of like AIG in the respect that it penetrated a really obvious support level and has been sailing downward ever since.

hefeiddd

XRX is sort of like AIG in the respect that it penetrated a really obvious support level and has been sailing downward ever since.

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Speaking of (thin) support - check out $CZH. It is right at the lowest fan line. It's either bounce or break at this point.

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Looking at the DIA, here again we have strong support and very little beneath. The case for a bounce is strong. The case for a crash, if this is broken, is just as strong.

hefeiddd

Looking at the DIA, here again we have strong support and very little beneath. The case for a bounce is strong. The case for a crash, if this is broken, is just as strong.

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Here's a different view of the same market. A crash, I think, would take us to between 7,750 and 8,400, depending on what line provided support.

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Don't even get me started on the SDP ($UTIL) trade. Talk about money left on the table. It has fully realized its H&S potential.

hefeiddd

Don't even get me started on the SDP ($UTIL) trade. Talk about money left on the table. It has fully realized its H&S potential.

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Commodities look like they've entered a major bear market; I would short any major bounce here like nobody's business.

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The charts just keep coming! The NASDAQ Composite has the same story as the Dow 30. We're at support. There's nothing but air underneath. If we don't bounce (pretty much immediately), it's crash time.

hefeiddd

The charts just keep coming! The NASDAQ Composite has the same story as the Dow 30. We're at support. There's nothing but air underneath. If we don't bounce (pretty much immediately), it's crash time.

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I'm very short OIH. I have ambitious target.

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The Russell looks like it has very strong support at the tinted area shown.

The Russell looks like it has very strong support at the tinted area shown.

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OK, that's enough .Off to bed. Tomorrow we either bounce big or head into a free-fall. I'm as nervous as ever, but comforted at least by the guidance the charts provide.

Posted: 07:56 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 23, 2008 - 06:02 下午Buffett to a High GlossWell, I guess the big news after hours is that Warren Buffett is buying up $5 billion of Goldman Sachs stock. After-hours on the GLOBEX, equities markets are being pushed higher (not "crazy" higher, but the equivalent of "someone had good earnings" higher). It was a really good day, and my oil/energy/gold bearishness worked out decently. My day trades on index puts were where the real gravy was, though. I ended the day with only one index position - - a relatively modest block of $NDX puts. I also trimmed quite a few positions including, importantly, my SKF holdings.
What's amazing to me is how much the battered "near-death" stocks have been doing. I haven't traded them at all, but those who have been doing so nimbly DWARF any gains I've got going. These stocks have gained hundreds of percent in a matter of days!

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What's interesting to me is how uncertain so many folks are, including those who are usually drenched with certitude. Even Elliott Wave International (at last reading) was essentially saying "it could go up or down at this point!" I agree with Gary Savage that the potential gains to be had from a crash are outweighed by the potential losses from a steady surge higher, which is why I'm doing something I normally don't do - - - confine most index trades to intraday.

hefeiddd

What's interesting to me is how uncertain so many folks are, including those who are usually drenched with certitude. Even Elliott Wave International (at last reading) was essentially saying "it could go up or down at this point!" I agree with Gary Savage that the potential gains to be had from a crash are outweighed by the potential losses from a steady surge higher, which is why I'm doing something I normally don't do - - - confine most index trades to intraday.

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Looking closer at the S&P 500, we can see that about 2/3rds of the Thursday/Friday surge has been eliminated, but the risk here is that Congress works something out with Paulson. Isn't it funny how trading has stopped being about earnings flow from corporations and now has almost everything to do with politics? As the old saying goes, don't confuse a stock with a company.

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I had a short, wild ride on QLD today. I'm out, obviously. What's mildly interesting about the QQQQs right now is that they are beneath a pretty important Fibonacci level. Indeed, with all the tumult it's easy to forget this, but the NASDAQ 100 closed at the lowest levels of the year, with the exception of last Wednesday.

I had a short, wild ride on QLD today. I'm out, obviously. What's mildly interesting about the QQQQs right now is that they are beneath a pretty important Fibonacci level. Indeed, with all the tumult it's easy to forget this, but the NASDAQ 100 closed at the lowest levels of the year, with the exception of last Wednesday.

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Regular readers probably have gathered I'm a bit of a movie nut. Let's relax a few minutes and enjoy some of the hilarity from the start of Annie Hall. Good night!


: 06:02 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 16, 2008 - 04:32 下午A Chartist First; A Bear, SecondWhat's it going to be like when the markets move up or down just a little each day? What are we going to do when the biggest financial event in a quarter is a company bumping up its dividend a little? What will it feel like when a 100 point move on the Dow is pretty big news? We have gone through the looking glass, folks, and entered a totally new world. Someday it will get back to normal.
The reason for the title of tonight's post is that some people were actually ticked off (or "fading" me) since I had "turned bull." (To be clear, I was going long calls on specific sectors). I received a few emails from people, as if I had turned my back on "the cause." I am not here as a representative of the Financial Al Qaida; I don't pray for the destruction of the United States and its assets. I simply want to objectively take advantage of the insights I gain from charts. I may seem like a raving bear sometimes based on the juxtaposition between (a) what I see and (b) what the talking heads are saying; but reality and the charts have gotten a lot closer together lately, so I'm a pretty mellow fellow.
Suffice it to say that it is my life's goal to shake my permabear tendencies and be as dispassionate as possible. My "bullish calls" today are a symptom of my attempt at personal transformation.

The volume on AIG - - just one stock - - was nearly 1.2 billion shares today. It had a multi-hundred percent intraday range. And tonight, after hours, it is getting slammed yet again. I imagine this will be the big story on Wednesday, one way or another.

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Now, a lot of folks have been needling me about a "pledge" to do just one post a day; you misunderstand - - I meant the final three days of this week. I'm going to be very tied up with "normal" work. What I wouldn't give to have three quiet days on the market! But that's not going to happen. What I'll probably do is just write a one-sentence post so that people don't lose their minds posting comments; in other words, I don't want people to have to load 15 charts every time they post a comment; and, at the end of the day, I'll do a regular post (OK, I guess that's two per day).
Looking back, I think I'd give myself a solid "B+" for my performance today. I dumped a huge number of puts early in the day, most of them at very good prices (although I painfully noticed that CEG, on which I owned puts a few days ago, was plunging like crazy!) I was kind of ham-handed with a few positions, notably RUT and OIH. But on the whole it was a good, profitable day, and I can't fault myself too much given the insanity of (a) the general craziness we're going through (b) Fed day, which is always nuts. The $VIX, not surprisingly, poked into "maybe this is the bottom for now" territory, as you can see below. This is only the 4th such instance pushing above 33 in at least the past five years.

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As for what's next, it's tough to say; as of now (just a few hours after the Tuesday close), the GLOBEX is down mildly hard. As you can see from the DIA below, we bottomed nicely at mid-July levels and covered the entire Fibonacci range today, closing near the highs on huge volume.

hefeiddd

As for what's next, it's tough to say; as of now (just a few hours after the Tuesday close), the GLOBEX is down mildly hard. As you can see from the DIA below, we bottomed nicely at mid-July levels and covered the entire Fibonacci range today, closing near the highs on huge volume.

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The SPY, also sporting gigantic volume, opened down very hard and created a sizable bullish engulfing pattern (although let's remember last week's similar pattern didn't mean squat).

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And then there's the IWM. It's pretty easy to see in all three of these ETFs how, even if they open stronger tomorrow, they might bump their heads pretty hard at the respecting overhanging Fib levels.

hefeiddd

And then there's the IWM. It's pretty easy to see in all three of these ETFs how, even if they open stronger tomorrow, they might bump their heads pretty hard at the respecting overhanging Fib levels.

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I should note for the record that I have no index options at all right now. I did buy some NDX calls, and I closed those for a few thousand bucks profit (I couldn't stomach the idea of a big call position overnight). I did go long a wide variety of issues, almost all energy- or gold-based, as I described in the prior post.
Looking at the S&P 500 daily chart, it's pretty easy to make a case for today's low being the intermediate low for a while. Just look at January (and, later, March) of this year; it hit that Fib level and spent months climbing higher. I think the culture, if you will, of the market has changed enough to shorten the countertrend. But I have trouble picturing the S&P just slipping right past 1170 and heading down to the next level of 1075. If we did "crash", however, that's where I'd say it was going to fall.

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Another reason for my slight case of bullishness is the NASDAQ and, more specifically, the $MSH. The pattern below is hardly a marvelous long-term hold, but it certainly looks like a decent bounce point; failing Tuesday's lows, however, would really crush this market. The new "oh sh*t!" point in many cases are the lows from Tuesday morning.

hefeiddd

Another reason for my slight case of bullishness is the NASDAQ and, more specifically, the $MSH. The pattern below is hardly a marvelous long-term hold, but it certainly looks like a decent bounce point; failing Tuesday's lows, however, would really crush this market. The new "oh sh*t!" point in many cases are the lows from Tuesday morning.

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Here we see crude oil (on a continuous basis) spanning back ten years. You can see how it "overshot" its trend very significantly. Likewise, it has "undershot" the trend here. I think that long-term crude oil is going to be bearish, but in the short-term I think it could make a push back to the very low triple digits.

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I will close by saying this - - I'm tired! This "bear market" stuff is really exhausting. The thing which stinks about the slope of hope (not the blog, but the market) is how it requires such riveted attention. I could have lost a ton of money today if I simply ignored the market. The "wall of worry" (a climbing market) is great because it's plodding, deliberate, and non-volatile. So that's probably the main reason I would love to see us enter a bounce for a little bit; I could really use a break from all this! Something tells me the market doesn't care a whole lot about how rested I feel, though. We need to take it as it comes.....

Posted: 04:32 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

八月 14, 2008 - 11:44 上午Turnaround for Giants?I take no pleasure in saying this, but looking at some very major issues - - particularly in the financials - - I can't help but wonder if some of these battered items could be setting up for a major turnaround. Here are a trio of charts for your consideration.

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Posted: 11:44 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

七月 10, 2008 - 08:42 上午Little Shop of HorrorsI read that a commentator on CNBC uttered the most idiotic of notions a couple of days ago: "It's not a loss until you sell." Try telling that to the holders of any of the firms below. And, believe me, this is just a very small sampling.

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hefeiddd

六月 19, 2008 - 05:08 上午Crosseyed and PainlessOh, Lawdy, Lawdy. I went to bed at 2:45 a.m. Wednesday morning, having packed for hours. I had to get up at 4:00 a.m. to get ready for the trip. Off the plane goes at 6 a.m. Change planes in Salt Lake City. Arrive here in Baltimore. And it's past midnight, and I'm still up, looking at charts. Gawd. (Update: Errr, I collapsed in a heap at 12:30 and got up at 6:30 to resume........sorry!)

During the aforementioned layover, I was pleased to see the Dow was down 95 when I got off the plane. Soon after, it was down 125. When I got back on the plane, it was down only 65. I had, during the layout, tightened up stops and trimmed index puts a little. But I'm glad I didn't get too aggressive with tightening stops. The action today was spastic, and I was relieved when I finally landed (after the market had closed) to see the Dow was down over 130. The chart of the $NDX below shows how, in the course of one day, the market was just all over the place. It looks like one of those contrived wall charts you see drawn as background in one-panel cartoons.

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I'm starting to get a little cautious in my immediate-term bearishness based on the Dow approaching the rising trendline you see below, which indicates the higher lows that have been established through the course of 2008. I'd feel a lot more comfortable seeing this trendline broken. We're very close to it now, which could mean another bounce.

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The $COMPQ is more clear, with a relatively clean path down for about another 100 points (barring any general market strength!) The 2325 level seems to be the next logical resting place.

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As for the more narrow $NDX, provided we stay below 2,000, I'm comfortably bearish.

hefeiddd

As for the more narrow $NDX, provided we stay below 2,000, I'm comfortably bearish.

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The Russell 2000 has a bit of support at the dotted red line you see drawn around $718. We'll need to break that in order to have some downward momentum. I'd say doing so would clear a path to about the $670 level.

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Adding to my cautiousness is the $OEX, which is approaching a big Fibonacci retracement level. The move from 660 to about 600 may be all this has to offer in the medium-term.