一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

As for the more narrow $NDX, provided we stay below 2,000, I'm comfortably bearish.

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The Russell 2000 has a bit of support at the dotted red line you see drawn around $718. We'll need to break that in order to have some downward momentum. I'd say doing so would clear a path to about the $670 level.

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Adding to my cautiousness is the $OEX, which is approaching a big Fibonacci retracement level. The move from 660 to about 600 may be all this has to offer in the medium-term.

hefeiddd

Adding to my cautiousness is the $OEX, which is approaching a big Fibonacci retracement level. The move from 660 to about 600 may be all this has to offer in the medium-term.

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I like the pattern AAPL is carving out, with a retracement to a major trendline completed and a dainty series of lower lows and lower highs over the past six weeks. My target here is around $161.

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CAT is looked good, too, having failed to complete a bullish breakout in May and now slipping away from its 2008 trendline, drawn in red here.

hefeiddd

CAT is looked good, too, having failed to complete a bullish breakout in May and now slipping away from its 2008 trendline, drawn in red here.

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Coach has been a favorite short position of mine, and it will get to be even more favorite if it pushes past the green trendline shown below. That would be a pretty important break.

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I'm an idiot for having puts in ACI. Trying to guess when a momentum stock has topped out is lunacy. Shame on me. I bet I get stopped out of this one today.

hefeiddd

I'm an idiot for having puts in ACI. Trying to guess when a momentum stock has topped out is lunacy. Shame on me. I bet I get stopped out of this one today.

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I'm less of an idiot for my CEG short position, which has a major broken trendline and general downward movement for the past seven months in its favor.

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One of the most valuable lessons I've learned from the readers of this blog is to stay short on weak securities (sounds obvious, but I have always had such a penchant for trying to bring down crazy momentum players, this is somewhat of a revelation). The fact is that battered issues tend to get more battered, and I'm experiencing that with SHLD. I am simply going to keep hanging onto this.

hefeiddd

One of the most valuable lessons I've learned from the readers of this blog is to stay short on weak securities (sounds obvious, but I have always had such a penchant for trying to bring down crazy momentum players, this is somewhat of a revelation). The fact is that battered issues tend to get more battered, and I'm experiencing that with SHLD. I am simply going to keep hanging onto this.

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On Tuesday I pointed out the broadening top in VMI. The next day, this stock really had the air taken out of it.

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Here's a fine example of a change in fortune. Take a look at ANR below; this graph ends at the beginning of 2007, and you can see what a dog this stock was. Now click on the "Present" tab. Incredibly, isn't it? About a 900% rise in less than 18 months. When will the wind be taken out of ANR's sails? I'm weary of guessing.

hefeiddd

Here's a fine example of a change in fortune. Take a look at ANR below; this graph ends at the beginning of 2007, and you can see what a dog this stock was. Now click on the "Present" tab. Incredibly, isn't it? About a 900% rise in less than 18 months. When will the wind be taken out of ANR's sails? I'm weary of guessing.

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Here's another nice example.........AIG. In the graph below you can see AIG broken a trendline (and it's a huge one, spanning back to when Richard Nixon was in office). The prices struggled back to the trendline, but the damage was done. Now click on the "Present" tab to see what's happened since then.

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OK, I'm on a roll here; let's do another fun example. BORL, shown below, was clearly a fantastic winning stock. The bulls loved it, and wish good reason. You can see an "ANR-like" climb, as this company was seriously considered a threat to Microsoft's dominance in the microcomputer software field. Now click on "Present". How the mighty have fallen, eh? It's pretty sad.

hefeiddd

OK, I'm on a roll here; let's do another fun example. BORL, shown below, was clearly a fantastic winning stock. The bulls loved it, and wish good reason. You can see an "ANR-like" climb, as this company was seriously considered a threat to Microsoft's dominance in the microcomputer software field. Now click on "Present". How the mighty have fallen, eh? It's pretty sad.

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I had taken profits on AZO a little while ago, and I'm sorry that I did. The (crude) diamond pattern in this stock seems to be fulfilling, and the price breaks beneath support.

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One stock that was frustrating people with its slow movement was COF. This seems to be changing. COF had been, for about 7 months, bouncing between about $57 (on the high side) and a series of "higher lows" on the low side. But this trendline, shown below, was broken last month, and the damage is clearly done. Bears are finally getting their day on COF.

hefeiddd

One stock that was frustrating people with its slow movement was COF. This seems to be changing. COF had been, for about 7 months, bouncing between about $57 (on the high side) and a series of "higher lows" on the low side. But this trendline, shown below, was broken last month, and the damage is clearly done. Bears are finally getting their day on COF.

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In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.

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I will be out and about all day long, and I'll do a post tonight. I'm sorry for anyone that waited for this post last night. Have a good trading day!

Posted: 05:08 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 06, 2008 - 08:16 上午Bottomless PitsEven though we haven't been rolling around in an honest-to-God bear market, there are some sectors that have. Bask in the glow of these train wrecks. They are a marvel, and they seem to have no bottom except for $0.00.

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Posted: 08:16 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
AIG (8)

hefeiddd

四月 28, 2009 - 09:11 上午Short Ideas (1 of 4)

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hefeiddd

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Posted: 09:11 上午 | 52 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

十二月 05, 2008 - 07:17 上午More Short IdeasSheesh, it's nice just to watch the profits flow in again. I was getting disgusted with this market's chops. Anyway. Here are a few more ideas.

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hefeiddd

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More later............

Posted: 07:17 上午 | 105 insightful comments | Permalink
AIT (2)

hefeiddd

四月 28, 2009 - 09:11 上午Short Ideas (1 of 4)

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hefeiddd

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Posted: 09:11 上午 | 52 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 09, 2008 - 04:25 下午AAPL=Another Anticlimactic Product LaunchAfter Friday's big sell-off, equities started today off strong, but it was a very inconsistent day. At one point, in spite of the Dow being up triple digits earlier, all the major indexes were in the red (including the NASDAQ, which was down a hefty 2%). Sadly, there was late-day strength, and the Dow managed to tack on 70 points. All the same, much of the damage done on Friday was still intact.
One of the big stories today was Lehman Brothers, which I remarked on earlier today. The case for some short-term support here is decent.

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The broader brokerage picture, however, is still fairly bleak. The $XBD is down 40% from its peak, but as you can see from this graph, there's still plenty of open air beneath current prices. Another 50 points off this index seems totally plausible in 2008.

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The widely-anticipated iPhone announcement came today. I mentioned a couple of times last week what old news this was, and the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" rule held true here. At one point, AAPL was down about 9 points. Even with the drop "only" at $4.03, this chart is more attractive than before.

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The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.

hefeiddd

The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.

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The $COMPQ is a little easier for me to interpret. We've got very strong resistance at 2,550, indicated by the purple line, and a drop below 2,425 would be very bearish.

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The $NDX sneaked below its support line Friday, but it plunged below it today. This line is very obviously broken at this point.

hefeiddd

The $NDX sneaked below its support line Friday, but it plunged below it today. This line is very obviously broken at this point.

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The chart below is a weekly, as opposed to the more common daily, of the Russell 2000. A drop beneath today's lows would be a very compelling bearish picture for this index, which I have not been trading for quite some time.

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My current index position is in the S&P 500, which is the cleanest chart for me to read at this point. My stops on this are set at 1406.20.