一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I don't have much to say about individual stocks. I got out of about 10 positions today - - some to take profits, others to cut risk - - the agricultural stocks are still on a moon trajectory.......

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.....and I re-entered FSLR today, with a stop at $289. I let a nice profit on these puts slip away due to surprising strength, with the price cutting back above the former supporting line. Once more into the breach, dear friends.

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Tomorrow morning is almost sure to have some fireworks. I'll see you then.

Posted: 02:14 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 27, 2008 - 01:44 下午Weaker Oil Provides a Bounce-Back






Gold was weak as well. I had puts on $XAU, but I sold them (at a profit) for two reasons. First, I hate being in these things. The bid/ask spread is atrocious, and even though the spread is so wide that you could drive a truck through it, I always have to take the bid price, so I always feel ripped off; and second, the price was touching that Fib fan line, and I was happy enough with my profits (up about 40% on the trade).

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All the indexes marched higher, and what's crucial, of course, is that they don't push past the highs set a little over a week ago. I'll be re-entering index puts as this climb continues, with stops set at the aforementioned highs.

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Interesting, the S&P 500 closed at precisely its Fibonacci line. This suggests this line may represent resistance, whereas before it was support (the oft-mentioned 1385 level).

hefeiddd

Interesting, the S&P 500 closed at precisely its Fibonacci line. This suggests this line may represent resistance, whereas before it was support (the oft-mentioned 1385 level).

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I have a smattering of long positions on issues that had been battered to pieces. Some of them are doing pretty well, such as symbol CPY.

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I don't focus much on the FOREX, but my conclusion from this chart is that the U.S. dollar is going to get a lot stronger soon, which is going to punish oil accordingly.

hefeiddd

I don't focus much on the FOREX, but my conclusion from this chart is that the U.S. dollar is going to get a lot stronger soon, which is going to punish oil accordingly.

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I'm off the "nothing but options" bandwagon and have a mix of (a) puts; and (b) short equity positions. I've been pushing increasingly into straight short positions of a larger size, since a lot of these downdrafts are taking a while to unfold, and I'd rather not risk the time premium loss. You can see all my holdings, as always, on the right column of this blog, but here are a few selected items; as you can see, I am hoping to take advantage of the softening-up of the formerly red-hot commodities and agricultural sectors.

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hefeiddd

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I don't have much else to say, since I've returned to "wait and see" mode with respect to the broad index markets. All three remaining days this week feature an important economic release one hour before the opening bell, so there may be some interesting fodder forthcoming.

Posted: 01:44 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 22, 2008 - 04:46 下午Fat!Enough of this fat talk. You've caught me. I'm obese. Morbidly so. All the photographs you've seen recently were heavily Photoshopped. Here's the real Tim at work. May God forgive me for what I am.

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The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense.

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I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.

hefeiddd

I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.

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But I also think the FOREX markets are pointing to a strengthening dollar. That will rough up the oil markets pretty good, should it happen.

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hefeiddd

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My AGU puts are doing OK and I like the prospects of this stock heading down to the low 60s.

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Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.

hefeiddd

Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.

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Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points.

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I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.

hefeiddd

I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.

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First Solar ("fizzler") has lost 15% of its value since last week. Cracking that ascending trendline at about $250 would mean party time. Gosh, where's Beanie? Oh, I forgot. He's mute when things aren't going his way. Puss.

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I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.

hefeiddd

I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.

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Sunpower is another bearish play on solar. This stock is obviously a lot weaker technically than FSLR.

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BIDU dropping 20 points - whoo hoo! It's easy to picture another 100 points getting nuked off this baby.

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ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!

hefeiddd

ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!

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I've got a variety of real estate shorts, which has my interest after a long hiatus.

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And I have trouble believing generic online brokerages are going to thrive once the bear market resumes.

hefeiddd

And I have trouble believing generic online brokerages are going to thrive once the bear market resumes.

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For an energy company, this is a pathetic chart.

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SLB is yet another failed bullish breakout (FBB, not to be confused with BFF).

SLB is yet another failed bullish breakout (FBB, not to be confused with BFF).

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And that's all I've got to say about that.

Posted: 04:46 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 28, 2008 - 03:30 下午Scared RUT-lessIf there was one chart that terrifies me, it is shown below. It shows what could be a very formidable inverted H&S pattern on the IWM which, if fulfilled, would be explosively powerful for the bulls.


Conversely, if there was one chart right now that gave me comfort that the bullish nonsense of the past six weeks had, thank God, finally petered out, it would be the chart below.


One thing I will note is that volume continues to whither away. Today's volume on the IWM was 90% less than it was last August 16th. The volume today is akin to what was seen on Christmas Eve.

hefeiddd

One thing I will note is that volume continues to whither away. Today's volume on the IWM was 90% less than it was last August 16th. The volume today is akin to what was seen on Christmas Eve.


Now, I know only enough about Elliott Wave to hurt myself, but I've made a stab at labeling the AMEX China Index, which looks ready to resume its sweep downward. Any of you EWT folks, let me know how I did.


As for the $INDU, it was wiggling up and down all day long and wound up slightly down. I think most traders were falling asleep out of boredom

hefeiddd

As for the $INDU, it was wiggling up and down all day long and wound up slightly down. I think most traders were falling asleep out of boredom.


The Russell was relatively strong, and I have to admit, I am so concerned about the aforementioned pattern that I closed out my Russell puts at a loss. I simply don't want to tolerate that kind of risk of something happening like Wednesday rolling around and being up 400 points. What if a recession hasn't started? What if the Fed produces whatever love juice the bulls are craving? Wednesday is going to be gigantic.


The S&P is a deliriously interesting pattern right now. Three different patterns at play here - - a descending trendline, a horizontal line, and a channel, all of which spell "short!" unless they are violated.

hefeiddd

The S&P is a deliriously interesting pattern right now. Three different patterns at play here - - a descending trendline, a horizontal line, and a channel, all of which spell "short!" unless they are violated.


The Transports were particularly strong, pushing up to its next Fib level.


And gold, in which I have no position, looks like it could be headed for a much steeper fall soon.

hefeiddd

And gold, in which I have no position, looks like it could be headed for a much steeper fall soon.


Now a handful of stocks. There are a ton of stocks which have enjoyed multi-hundred (or thousand) percent gains. Anything to do with fertilizer or agriculture, it seems, has been blessed. Some of these are finally showing a bit of weakness, such as AGU.


I don't know if I've had a trade on KLAC in the past decade, but I'm intrigued by this one. It has a nice, clean stop too

hefeiddd

I don't know if I've had a trade on KLAC in the past decade, but I'm intrigued by this one. It has a nice, clean stop too.


I've got a few put positions on investment banks, and this is probably my favorite of them.


I confess to feeling pretty down lately. I've pulled some chips off the table out of fear. I will be more comfortable trading these markets once the one-two punch of Wednesday is past us.

Posted: 03:30 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 17, 2008 - 11:48 上午The VerticalsThere are an abundance of momentum-driven stocks in the world of commodities. One day they'll cease their ascent, just like all stocks eventually do. Maybe it'll be today. Maybe it'll be in a year. I have no way to know for sure.
These are astonishing climbs. Those individuals who have been long these stocks over the past year or two have made huge percentage gains. For those (like me) who keep trying to tilt at these windmills..........good luck. It ain't easy.





Posted: 11:48 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
AGU (14)