MARCH 26, 2009,
WTO Details Rising Protectionism, Pushes Countries to Reverse Course
BRUSSELS -- A steady buildup of protectionist measures could "slowly strangle" international trade and undercut the effectiveness of national stimulus plans, according to a report the World Trade Organization sent its 153 members on Thursday. WSJ, March 27,2009
Social Implications
While the Wave Principle is the single best method for anticipating the behavior of markets, its value at times goes way beyond even that great benefit. The effects that a change in market trend will have on society are not in evidence at the start of the trend. They become intensely manifest by the time of its termination. Is it too early to begin projecting events that will result from approaching bear market in social trend? To be sure, this book contains dozens of very specific financial forecasts, which are root social phenomena. The average conflict during the bear market will be far greater than it was during the bull market and will lead to periods of turmoil, not just in financial markets, but in society. Indeed, the trends now implied by long term market patterns have always produced dramatic social upheaval. The coming trend of negative social psychology will be characterized primarily by polarization, between and among various perceived groups, whether political, ideological, religious, geographical, intolerance, disagreement and exclusion, as opposed to the bull market years, whose net trend has been toward benevolence, confidence, tolerance, agreement and inclusion. Such a sentiment change typically brings conflict in many forms, and evidence of it will be include protectionism in trade matters, a polarized and vocal electorate, separatist movements, xenophobia, citizen-government clashes, the dissolution of old alliances and parties, and the emergence of radical new ones. (At The Crest of The Tidal Wave, p.432, (c) 1995 and 2001, Robert R.Prechter) S&P 500 Index (SPX)
© ELLIOTT today, March 21,2009
 Chart 3
Elliott Wave Analysis Elliott used parallel channels to assist in determining normal wave targets and to provide clues to possible development of trends. In The Wave Principle he asserted that as a wave progresses, "it is necessary that the movement be channeled between two parallel lines." He regarded trend channeling as an important tool in establishing wave completion targets
and in the segregation of individual waves. (EWP, p.61) Sometimes a sub-wave within one of the main five waves will briefly exceed its associated channel line. When that happens, these outlying waves often stay within another, wider trend channel whose parallel lines contain all prices but do not necessarily touch the ends of waves two and four, or three. (The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert R.Prechter, 09/03) According to the text, the dotted line on chart shows the outlining
channeling, containing all wave extremes. Interesting, the lower
channel line touches the end of wave (5) quite exactly, supporting
the case, that Primary wave [1] has bottomed. The sideways action from November 2008 to February 2009 can be labeled as a contracting triangle and the ensuing "thrust out of a triangle" completed Intermediate wave (5) of Primary wave [1].
Possible targets for Primary wave [2]: Elliotter know about the famous retracement levels provided by Fibonacci mathematics:
A 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement would bring the S&P 500 to about the 1,013 level. A 50 % Fibonacci retracement would bring the S&P 500 to about the 1,121 level. A 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement would bring the S&P 500 to about the 1,228 level. There is a high probability that the market will run into resistance provided by the falling 1x2 Fibonacci fanline, which, when drawn from the top of October 2007 runs about into the mid 1,100s.
S&P 500, 10min., March 26,2009 Five Waves-Up
The action of the last two days provided an excellent example of the usefulness to take Fibonacci fanline to your trading tool. After touching the rising 2x1 Wednesday, the market started a 40+ point-rally.
S&P 500 Index, daily  Elliott Wave Analysis: On the basis of our experience with triangles, we propose that often the time at which the boundary lines of a previously triangle converge at its apex coincides exactly with a turning point in the market. (EWP, p.42-43, Frost & Prechter). Once you identify a valid channel, you can use it to help identify some minor trend changes along the way as well as the major trend reversal at the end of wave five (or wave C in zigzag). The two-four line of a channel provides no impediment to the progress of the next emerging wave, but sometimes after going past this line, prices will return to "test" i t, or touch it briefly, before continuing in the new direction. As the labeling on the chart reveals, a classic five-wave decline of Primary degree completed the first (!) wave down. As of Friday, March 27,2009, the S&P 500 Index has not only reached the apex of the triangle (Chart : alternately - double zigzag) but also trades near the Major Midline (red-dotted line). This could be a strong signal that the first wave of Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (a) is complete. (Alternately of course: all of Intermediate wave (a).
Weekly Update © ELLIOTT today, March 28,2009 Welthandel stürzt ins Bodenlose
Der Welthandel ist in den vergangenen Monaten zusammengebrochen. Im Zeitraum von August 2008 bis Januar sank der globale Warenaustausch um fast 20 Prozent. Das berechneten Ökonomen des niederländischen Forschungsinstituts CPB. FTD de, March 26,2009
Die Wut erreicht die Straße
Manager werden als Geiseln genommen, Banker bedroht, Villen attackiert. Der Unmut über die Verantwortlichen der Wirtschaftskrise erreicht eine neue Dimension: Die allgemeine Wut richtet sich zunehmend gegen Einzelpersonen. FTD, March 26,2009
(See Social Implications below>>>)
S&P 500, 10min., March 26,2009 Leading Diagonal...  "Five waves up", that's what I said on March 26,2009 and indeed, the market traced out an a-b-c which ended right at the "previous fourth wave" and a last run to slightly new highs completed the entire structure. The market "gapped down" below the lower short term channel line, tried to recover, but failed. The structure as of Friday's trading seems to form a leading diagonal (Type 2, EWP p.47-48, Frost & Prechter). This pattern appears as wave 1 or A. You may have noticed that the S&P 500 Index trades near above the rising Fibo fanline (not shown) when drawn from the low of 791.
S&P 500, 10min., March 30,2009 Midline Channel & FiboFanLines  The low 791 functioned like magnetic center, since first the prices
broke down at that level, recovered along the ML and at the end
of the trading day closed above the ML. I hope you are not confused
with so many lines on the chart, but as you can see the dramatic opening
gap and the trading thereafter occurred right between the falling 1x2 Fibo fanline
and the ML (red-dotted line).
Geheimes Gutachten
HRE-Risiken größer als gedacht
Der Immobilienfianzierer Hypo Real Estate wird immer mehr zu einem Fass ohne Boden. Dem Finanzministerium liegt nach stern-Recherchen ein geheimes Gutachten vor, wonach die Ausfallrisiken auf bis zu 60 Prozent der Bilanzsumme der HRE ansteigen könnten. Das wären 235 Milliarden Euro. stern.de, March 25,2009 S&P 500, 10min., March 25,2009 Test of the 2x1
The S&P 500 edged higher at the opening but declined to 791 just right to the rising 2x1 Fibo fanline.
Let us look at Banking Index today
(symbol: $BKX).
(This daily chart goes back to 1993, 17 years ago.)
For today, take a look at the close-up insert in the upper left hand corner. That is a picture of the Index's movement since January of this year.
First, note the fan lines. We have had rising fan lines which is a sign that the Banking Index is trying to stabilize.
Second, note what happened last week. Based on 8:30 pre-market data we are seeing, Geithner's announcement could have the Banking Index test 31 today if it has enough "meat" in it. Last week, the index made its first higher high of the year. Now ... if it can make a higher/low, then it will start a short term up trend ... and that would be good for the markets.
S&P 500, 10min., March 24,2009 A-B-C 
S&P 500 trades above the rising 1x1 Fibo fanline and should support. The structure shown on the chart is an a-b-c expanded
flat correction.
Milieu in der Krise
Im Puff herrscht tote Hose
Die Krise macht sich auch in Bordellen bemerkbar: Im Puff herrscht tote Hose.
Doch das Milieu gibt nicht auf. Discount-Bordelle, Wellness-Tempel und Sexpartys
für jedermann sollen in die Zukunft führen.
Stern.de, March 22,2009 US-Verbraucherpreise
Deflationsängste werden kleiner
Boerse-online.de, March 21,2009
S&P 500, 10min., March 23,2009 "Obama’s 22% Stock Rally Recovery
From Bear Market"
Bloomberg.com, March 24,2009
Market Dispatches 3/10/2009
Dow surges 379 in year's biggest rally
Financial stocks set off a huge snap-back rally after Citigroup says it has
been profitable so far this year.
The text above (Market Dispatches, 3/10/2009) related "the Dow's biggest rally in year's" to Citigroup's
announcement at that time. Yesterday's 'blast off ' occurred because of the "Toxic-Asset Plan" released from the government. Socionomics explains: "The standard presumption is that the state of the economy is a key determinant of the stock market’s trends. All day long on financial elevision and year after year in financial print media, investors debate the state of the economy for clues to the future course of the stock market. If this presumed causal relationship actually existed, then there would be some evidence that the economy leads the stock market. On the contrary, for decades, the Commerce Department of the federal government has identified the stock market as a leading indicator of the economy, which
is indeed the case." (Socionomics: Economy>>>) Wave iv of Minute wave (c) ended a hairsbreath beneath Minuette wave iii and completed an a-b-c zigzag. The market opened strongly to the upside and is either in wave (iii) or wave (v).
Statt Investitionen
Unternehmen horten Bargeld
Firmen nehmen Milliarden mit Anleihen auf - und legen ihr Kapital auf die hohe Kante.
Volkswirte sehen das skeptisch. FTD de. , March 21,2009
Firmen nehmen Milliarden mit Anleihen auf - und legen ihr Kapital auf die hohe Kante.
Volkswirte sehen das skeptisch. FTD de. , March 21,2009
ThyssenKrupp will über 3000 Jobs streichen
Die neue Führungsstruktur folgt alten Krupp-Traditionen:
Das Controlling gewinnt an Einfluss. FTD de. , March 21, 2009
Die neue Führungsstruktur folgt alten Krupp-Traditionen:
Das Controlling gewinnt an Einfluss. FTD de. , March 21, 2009
U.S. Mortgage Rates May Fall to Lowest Since
World War II on Fed Purchases
San Francisco Area Home Prices Dip Below
$300,000 for First Time Since '99
Lost Bonuses Signal Biggest Drop in Manhattan
Apartment Prices Since 1980
The socionomic hypothesis explains the data. Changes in the stock market
immediately reflect the changes in endogenous social mood. As social mood becomes increasingly positive, productive activity increases; as social mood becomes increasingly negative, productive activity decreases. These results show up in lagging economic statistics as expansions and recessions. The standard presumption has no explanation for the relative timing of these two phenomena.
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999 by Robert R. Prechter) Read more Weekly Update (data through March 20,2009)
NASDAQ Composite Index
© ELLIOTT today, March 20,2009
Chart 1
...and here is a reprint from the Special Report of October 13, 2007,
seventeen(!!) days before the top ! Special Report
NASDAQ Composite Index
October 13,2007
The chart of the NASDAQ Composite Index displays the advance from October 2002 to October 2007. In time,
this is the same distance nearly to the day as the advance in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from August 1982
to August 1987. We all know what happended in October of that year! Crash they called it at the time, but it was
the deepest fourth wave correction in the history of the market.
Starting October 7,2002 at 1113,36 Minor wave 1 traveled +408 points. 1.618 times 408 gives 660.14 and when
added to tue top of wave 1 at 1521.44 the result is 2181.58, only 5.98 points from the high of December 30,2004,
which was 2187.57. Fibonacci at its best ! The clear five-wave advance from the low of 1113 produced a classic Elliott
impulse, i.e., Intermediate wave (a) of Primary wave [B]. (It is possible, that an even higher degree of Cycle degree is
about to end then the five-wave impulse becomes Primary wave [a]).
Primary wave traced out a rare "running flat", a 3-3-5 construction, where wave C fails to travel its full distance,
falling short of the level at which wave A ended. Apparently in this case, the forces in the direction of the larger trend
are so powerful that the pattern becomes skewed in this way. At such times, the fundamental or emotional factors seem
to overriding normal wave development.
Many times before I said, the market always provides clues when it is about to change direction, and a thorough
knowledge of those clues is the goal of every successful market timer. If a turn is recognized, great. If a turn is
missed, then the next task is to determine whether the market's action in the new direction suggests a change in
the larger trend. Within the current list of clues in the wave structure, momentum indicators and sentiment measures
the NASDAQ Composite is about to top out NOW or has already. It's screaming SELL ! Although some may react
as if "wolf" has been cried once too often, multiple "sell" signals from reliable indicators are not an objective defensible
reason to ignore them. In fact, the opposite is true. Any market which has continued to rally while producing numerous
signs of topping behavior is most likely setting up for a big decline.
Why? The pattern in the NASDAQ Composite index recently traced out what looks like an expanding diagonal triangle for
wave 5 of (c) of [B]. According to the textbook description the next move will be a big one, say -800 points at minimum !!
In percentage terms, that is a decline of -28%. Call it a CRASH ?! Please notice the nice Elliott parallel channel containing
waves (a)-(b) and (c). Please see the chart
Special Report NASDAQ Composite Index, © ELLIOTT today, October 13 2007
Elliott Wave Analysis: Thanks to the Wave Principle, the most important message the chart of the NASDAQ Composite Index
is that the structure of the decline is missing a fifth wave. This decline, wave (5), is needed in order to
conclude five Intermediate-degree waves from October 2007, which, when complete, will comprise
Primary wave [1] of Cycle wave c. Actually, the NASDAQ trades in wave c of an expanded flat
(see Elliott Wave Principle) or alternately, in wave c of a contracting triangle, which has to trace out
waves c, d and e to complete Intermediate wave (4). A final thrust out of the triangle then will complete
the entire structure from October 2007. In contrast, the S&P and the Dow may have already bottomed, but
we will be patient and act accordingly. Aside from EWP, the chart shows that the falling 1x1 Fibonacci fanline has not been penetrated to the upside , yet, signaling the market is in a weak position.
Too much optimism? Anleger erwarten Fortsetzung der Rally
Die Kurse klettern weiter - das glauben zumindest die Marktbeobachter,
die an den Aktien- und Rentenmärkten einen leichten Optimismus wahrnehmen.
FTD.de, March 21,2009 S&P 500, 10min., March 20,2009
Chart 2 The slight drop below 780 at the opening (actually 779,28) gave a warning of what could happen: a clear three-wave advance in wave ii, a countertrend move in an ongoing decline and the following wave iii clearly violeted the 1x2 Fibo fanline producing a strong fall-down in prices. Wave iv retraced back to that line but prices entered wave v down. S&P 500, 10min., March 19,2009 In Wave Four?  The market must stay above 780 to confirm the wave iv count for the
recent 'sideways' action. The recnet consolidation could be an internal fourth-wave correction suggesting one leg higher to follow in wave (v).
S&P 500 Posts Steepest Advance Since 1939: Technical Analysis
March 19 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 17 percent ascent from March 9 through yesterday exceeded any advance by the main benchmark for American equities over a seven-day period since 1939, an indication to technical analysts that the rally may stall. Bloomberg.com, March 19,2009
S&P 500, 10min., March 18,2009 Near Completion  With the recent high the S&P 500 gained 20.5% off the low of 666, marked on March 6, 2009. Trading is above the rising 1x1 Fibo fanline so far and the Elliott wave count until late is right on track. The Elliott structure needs a final fifth wave for completion.
S&P 500, 10min., March 17,2009 On Track  The correction of Minute wave (iv) ended right in the area of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree and the market turned up on a dime. A five-wave advance can be seen on the chart with prices trading well above the rising 1x1 Fibo fanline.
S&P 500, 10min., March 16,2009 Five Waves Up
The man who can see into the future: Bernanke: recession could end in '09 WASHINGTON – America's recession "probably" will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday in a rare television interview. yahoo.com, March 16,2009
A clear Elliott channel, five-waves up and the correction underway. Natural support provides the fourth wave of one lesser degree, which is the area of 740 (+/-) in the SPX.
When will bad bankers
go to jail? Wall Street lies in tatters, but we're still waiting for the prosecutions that might reassure investors that the system works. One key issue: Were risk-taking bankers criminals? Or just dumb? msn, March 12,2009
Please See Socionomics : Corporate Scandals >>>
Weekly Update (data through March 12,2009) S&P 500 Index (SPX)
© ELLIOTT today, March 13,2009
 Just on March 6,2009, the day the markets hit a new low and "Stocks suffer their worst week since November" five-waves down of Intermediate degree completed Primary Wave [1]. The "number of the beast" 666 marked the low in the S&P, a loss of -910 points or -57.74%.
Market Dispatches, 3/6/2009
Stocks suffer their worst week since November
A late-day rally can't undo the damage from earlier in the week. Unemployment hits a 25-year high. Apple slumps on a downgrade. Wells Fargo slashes its dividend.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index dislplays the path of the index since its top of 1576 in October 2007. As can be clearly seen, each downwave divides into five smaller waves (degrees) and each upward wave divides into three smaller waves indicating the bear market is in full rage down. Despite the turmoil in the markets, the wave structure couldn't be better reflecting classic Elliott waves. In fact, emotional markets produce the clearest pattern but also travels within a parallel trend channel. Waves 2 and 4 sport alternation by taking different forms, (zigzag, double zigzag), thus satisfying the most common guideline of impulse wave formations. As you can see, the construction of Intermediate wave (1) displays five waves of one smaller degree, namely Minor waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.
There is a great chance that Primary wave [1] down is complete and the advance since early March 2009 marks the early stages of a more pronounced recovery since Primary wave [2] is in progress.
(The 10minute chart of Friday's trading day is shown below)
Please also see Elliott Wave Structures>>>
S&P 500, 10min., March 13,2009 Intermediate (a)
 The S&P itched a bit higher to complete Minuette wave iii (alternate: Minute wave (iii)) and the following correction formed a simple zigzag (with a very small wave c) thus satiesfying the rule of alternation. (Please see Wave Principle>>>). At the end of the trading day, the market climbed higher above the previous high of wave iii.
S&P 500, 10min., March 12,2009 Bottom In 
Primary Wave [2] : On Tuesday, I speculated (also the Wave Principle told me) a bottom is near. We have talked a lot about divergences in the past week. We're going to take our "Crash Alert" flag down for a while. Finally, the Dow shows signs of life. We won't know for a few days, but we'll take a guess: the rally will continue Market Dispatches 3/12/2009
Dow rises 240 as Madoff goes to jail The market has its best close in two weeks. GE's credit rating is cut, but S&P says the
outlook is stable. Bernard Madoff pleads guilty to 11 fraud charges. Retail stocks jump as February sales aren't as bad as expected. Unemployment claims are ugly.
Market Dispatches 3/10/2009
Dow surges 379 in year's biggest rally Financial stocks set off a huge snap-back rally after Citigroup says it has been profitableso far this year. Fed chief Bernanke says the government will not allow big banks to fail. Gold falls below $900. (please see Gold, March 3, 2009 below)
S&P 500, 10min., March 11,2009  The market popped up to 728,92 slightly exceeding the ML-1 and retraced back to
713,85 forming a pattern which could interpreted as a "Leading Diagonal Triangle Type 2"
(EWP, p.47). That is a variation on this pattern will be found in the A wave position of
zigzags and in the first wave position in "fives" in very rare cases. Thus, while type 1s,
which may be called ending diagonals, appear as wave 5 or C, type 2s, which may be
called leading diagonals, appear as wave 1 or A.
S&P 500, 10min., March 10,2009 Bottom In? Yes Or No?  Yesterday, I wrote, "To complete the pattern, a five-wave rally in wave c should be next."
That's exactly what happened: the biggest rally in 2009. EWI put this way, today:
"Exactly Who and What Did NOT Drive the Big Rally?" (Elliott Wave International), Mar 10,2009. A brief look at the 10minute chart of the S&P Index shows how the market surged above the
falling 1x2 Fibo fanline at the opening leaving a possible "runaway-gap". With the help of the
ML-1 one can see that prices probably stopped near the ML completing a much bigger
pattern than I foresaw. To identify the pattern please goto Elliott Wave Principle>>>
S&P 500, 10min., March 9,2009 Upside Correction  The ML-2 of the chart of March 6, 2009 helped us pretty well to identify a possible target for the end of wave a. Monday's whipsaw-trading session traced out what looks like a double zigzag completing wave b. To complete
the pattern, a five-wave rally in wave c should be next.
Too Many Bulls... © ELLIOTT today, March 3,2009
Linear Extrapolation: "Predicting" the Present
Trend extrapolation is the crudest form of technical analysis, and it is employed by nearly all conventional analysts, though they rarely realize it. Mainstream social and economic forecasting has forever been a practice of extrapolating present and recent conditions and trends into the future. More specifically, apparent predictions are simply (1) descriptions of present conditions (2) multiplied by unconsciously calculated moving averages of the trends of those conditions. Obviously, in a changing world, this approach is doomed to fail. Because of this practice, both economists and futurists in general have always been notoriously optimistic at tops and pessimistic at bottoms, producing highly inaccurate forecasts of coming events. Now we know why. Because the forecasters have no reliable basis upon which actually to attempt a forecast, the prevailing social mood has full rein to affect the tone of their conclusions. The stronger the mood, the stronger their conviction, the more inventive their rationalizations, and the more extreme and confident their extrapolation. This means that the closer the social mood gets to the point of change, the greater will be conventional forecasters' convition that it will not change, and the further into the future will be their extrapolation. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter)
Gold © ELLIOTT today, March 3,2009
Chart: stockcharts.com
Elliott Wave Analysis of May 30, 2008:
On November 7,2007, ELLtoday presented a chart of Gold and said, the recent high of $830
is accompanied with a terrific 92% bulls reading but the market kept on going higher.
At the close of last Monday's session, only 4% of gold traders were bearish, which means
that the average long had a whopping 24 times the size of position as the average short (96/4).
At the same time, The Wall Street Journal instructs investors on "How toSurvive The New Gold Rush."
New? Gold has been rallying for 8 years (!). The 96% bullish extreme means that very few are left to
push gold higher. This sentiment fits perfectly with the wave structure, as prices are completing the
final subdivisions of a five-wave advance from August 1999. We're going out of Gold and quit our long
position on Monday, February 4, 2008, officially.
On January 31, 2008 , EWI published the numbers of bulls & bears
in the Gold market. Only 4% of gold traders were bearish enough to
think that gold was set for a decline, which means that the average
long had a whopping 24 times the size of position as the average
short (96/4). At the same time, The Wall Street Journal instructs investors
on "How to Survive 'The New Gold Rush'." New? Gold has been rallying
for 8 years. The 96% bullish extreme means that very few are left to push
gold higher. The WSJ also reports that "a worldwide scramble to pull
valuable commodities out of the ground is putting by gold and platinum
miners halted production. Bulls will cite the production slowdown to suggest
that these metals are in short supply, but what it really shows is the ferocious
effort to add to supply. This sentiment fits perfectly whith the wave structure,
as prices are completing the final subdivisions of a five-wave advance from
August 1999. EWFF, January 31, 2008 And now, at the end of February 2009?
"There really is no other place to go," says one prominent asset manager.
According to CNBC , the pros say gold will soon "Spike to $3000."
Actually, the Daily Sentiment Index rose to 95% gold bulls last Wednesday,
a level last seen several days prior to gold's March 2008 peak. Actually, I think Gold has topped out in a B-wave
signalling prices are set to break much lower.
© ELLIOTT today, March 9 2009
Market Dispatches, 3/6/2009
Stocks suffer their worst week since November
A late-day rally can't undo the damage from earlier in the week. Unemployment hits a 25-year high. Apple slumps on a downgrade. Wells Fargo slashes its dividend.
S&P 500, 10min., March 6,2009
How many times have you heard a financial news reporter tell you the market rose or fell because of some particular news item? Advances and declines are the result of processes, not events. The problem with news is that it is, well, news. That means either it's happening now or it already happened. Trading on news is a frustrating game, especially if the market doesn't move in the direction that the news might imply. But, what if you could anticipate what the market is likely to do, and, better still, be prepared ahead of time with alternative trading strategies? Wouldn't that be more useful to you than chasing headlines, along with everybody else? Another "Hero" on the verge of fall? On March 6, 2009, Bloomberg.com run a headline: "Obama Bear Market" Punishes Investors as Dow Jones Industrial Tumble 20%.
The Big Picture Classic Elliott Wave S&P 500 Index (SPX)
© ELLIOTT today, March 7,2009
[on mouse over see chart of January 24,2009]
The chart above displays classic Elliott Wave formation, i.e., structures. In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that aggregate stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. The patterns he discerned are repetitive in form, but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated and defined thirteen patterns, or “waves”, that recur in market price data. He named and illustrated the patterns. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns at the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle. The Wave Principle is a tool of unique value, the most striking characteristics of which are its generality and its accuracy. Its generality gives market perspective most of the time and its accuracy in identifying , and even anticipating, changes
in direction is at times almost unbelievable. In the excellent “Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders,” one famous investor summarized his success this way: “Listen to the market: It will tell you everything you need to know." What an excellent piece of advice. If you refuse to let things that are outside the market – like economic data – confuse you and focus instead on the market's internals, things become much clearer. How many times have you heard a financial news reporter tell you the market rose or fell because of some particular news item? Advances and declines are the result of processes, not events. The problem with news is that it is, well, news. That means either it's happening now or it already happened. Trading on news is a frustrating game, especially if the market doesn't move in the direction that the news might imply. But, what if you could anticipate what the market is likely to do, and, better still, be prepared ahead of time with alternative trading strategies? Our subscriptions combine the high-probability forecasting power of Elliott Wave Analysis along with key measures of market sentiment to help you trade effectively and manage your risk. Whether you subscribe to our Weekly Update or SP500 TradingDESK (SPTD-07) you get our independent, unbiased analysis of what lies ahead.
and here the chart of Sept 30,2007 - two weeks before the top !!
and here the Weekly Update of July 13, 2007: ELLIOTT today, July 13,2007
Weekly Update:
Special Report-S&P 500 Index Friday, July 13,2007 the S&P 500 Index finally reached the high of March 2000. It is interesting to observe that Intermediate wave (c) at 1555 equals the length of Intermediate wave (a). Based on this wave structure, the S&P 500 should have achieved its top. As you can see on the chart, Intermediate wave (b) traced out a contracting triangle ending at 1224. The entire structure since then formed a classic five-wave advance travelling within a parallel trendchannel. The red-dotted line marks the mid-channel though it is not a original Median line, according to Dr.Andrews, but it shows very clear, that the recent high touched that line exactly. A break of 1484 in the S&P will eliminate almost all remaining near-term bullish potential. It may be interesting that in real (gold) terms, both the S&P and the DJIA remain down by well more than half from their July 1999 peaks. With regard of the EW labeling shown on the chart, the Cycle wave B interpretation remains valid. As far as I know, my interpretation of a leading diagonal triangle for wave 1 or A is the only interpretation among various Elliott wave analysts. Too much company is what I don't like. Though it remains to be seen, if this interpretation proofs right. Despite the bullish alternate version, a much bigger correction even under that scenario is due, since Intermediate wave (4) will be in force, shaking market partcipants even higher up and down. (see chart>>>)
S&P 500, 10min., March 5,2009
The market's recent low has now touched the falling 1x1
Fibo Fanline, shown yesterday. At the same time, the ROC
(Rate of Change) momentum indicator displays a positive
divergence on the 10min chart.The falling 1x1 Fibo Fanline
drawn from highpoint of January 2000 were slightly broken to
the downside just like at the end of the year 2008.
Market Dispatches 3/5/2009
Dow falls 281 to 12-year low
The S&P 500 falls to its lowest level since 1996. Citigroup briefly falls below $1, and potential downgrades slam other bank stocks. A big question: How bad will Friday's jobs report be?
Hey, Economists! Money and Interest Are Different Things
Mises Daily by Robert P. Murphy
There's an old joke where the first guy says, "What's the difference between drapes and toilet paper?" The second guy says, "I don't know, what?" Then the first guy responds, "You are not allowed in my house!"
After watching the "expert" economists debate our financial crisis during the past year, I realize that we can modify the joke. Today I would ask the econobloggers and op-ed writers, "What's the difference between monetary policy and interest rates?" If an economist answered, "I don't know, what?" then he is not allowed to advise the government. Any "expert" who confuses money and interest is eventually going to give horrible recommendations under certain conditions, as we'll see below.
Money and Interest
Are Different Things
Article >>> LLudwig von Mises Institut, visit the Mises Blog, http://blog.mises.org/blog/
S&P 500, 10min., March 4,2009
The S&P 500 traced out a diagonal triangle (EWP, p.31) a terminal pattern signalling a
dramatic reversal ahead. That's just what happened. A rising wedge is bearish and is
usually followed by a sharp decline at least back to the level where the diagonal triangle
began. In this case, the market will at least drop to the level labeled wave b on the chart.
S&P 500, 10min., March 3,2009
The decline into wave v of iii completed its five-wave structure
and prices advanced. Please note how the low prices came
near the lower parallel trend channel. Although, the advance
traced out a three-wave structure (wave iv in the chart) and
the market declined again.
Modern Portfolio Theory
Ages Badly The Death of Buy and Hold
Barron's , Feb 14,2009
Tautological Rationality
Perhaps the nth degree of dependence upon the rationality model has just been published in an article in the Financial Analysts Journal. It argues that buying because prices are rising is rational, so "rational behavior by individual investors can cause a market bubble," which is defined as "some self-reinforcing, self-perpetuating mechanism that prevents successive security prices from being random." This stance essentially defines nonrationality out of existence. If this theory is correct, then market crashes are rational, too, and so is selling when they occur. Would anyone like to take a affirmative side of that one? The fact is that buying only because prices have been rising is not rational because rising prices mean that the market is that much closer to a top. For the same reason, selling only because prices have been falling is not rational, either. In the next few days the media will try to rationalize the "surprising decline" around the world on February 27,2007.
Die Drei-Millionen-Marke wird geknackt
Ein Ende des Aufschwungs am Arbeitsmarkt ist nicht in Sicht. Im Gegenteil: Er wird mindestens bis 2009 anhalten, ist DIW-Chef Klaus Zimmermann überzeugt. Im stern.de-Interview sagt er voraus, dass die gute Konjunktur 2008 auch in der breiten Bevölkerung ankommen wird. Spiegel.de, Jan 3,2008
S&P 500, 10min., March 2,2009
Yesterday's big slump eliminated the alternate scenario
presented last Saturday. Although the 1-year and 2-year chart both show
positive divergences according to several measures, i.e., RSI. As the chart
displays, an orderly decline in terms of Elliott Waves can be clearly seen signaling
the market is in latter stages of this tremendous decline.
Market Dispatches 3/2/2009
300-point loss drops Dow below 6,800 Continued fears about teetering global credit markets and a $62 billion loss from American International Group combine to batter stocks. Warren Buffett sees a mess of an economy in 2009. Americans are saving more -- and spending more
Stocks Hit '97 Level, Signaling Long Slump
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 299.64 points, or 4.24%, to drop below 7000 at 6763.29, the lowest close since April 25, 1997. WSJ, Mar 3,2009
Warren Buffett Loses His Way
by Mike Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Berkshire Profit Plunges 96% on Stock Market Bets.Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted a fifth-straight profit drop, the longest streak of quarterly declines in at least 17 years, on losses from derivative bets tied to stock markets. safehaven.com, Mar 1, 2009
January 2009
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楼主
"Caution is advised as the latest run to recovery highs occurred under diverged conditions." (ELLtoday, April 18, 2009) 
(on mouse over see YTD chart) 
First, the New Lows peaked in October. The New Lows were then followed by a lesser rise in November while the market made a new low on the S&P. That was a positive divergence, where the market rose from there ... only to fall back down to retest the S&P low again. But notice how, once again, the New Lows have a Positive divergence and this time, the divergence is more positive than the last time. So, we have a "positive force" acting on the market. Nearby, the 10minute chart of the SPX shows the length of wave v now equals wave i, each 16 points. But most important, in term of Elliott waves, the market now trades in the latter stages of wave 5 signaling completion of the pattern. 
Due to server problems I wasn't able to post the 10minute chart of the S&P over the weekend.
