|
Monday October 3rd
Thursday, September 29th
Wednesday, September 28th IOTN is up again 1.49 % this morning ...
Tuesday, September 27th
2:41 pm Update ..
SIMG may have bottomed here now
12:51 pm Update
IOTN still strong ..... keep stop .... for 15 +
SIMG is now at 9.05 .... will add 2,000 shares to the portfolio soon I'm waiting for 8.80 or so
Within the chaotic orbits of the financial markets there are always seeds of order. These seeds of order reveal the existence of windows of stable and "predictable" periodic behavior.
Any region of chaos (stock chart) contains a Window of Order. It is the task of the market fractalist to identify and isolate the window of order.
Fractals are the Patterns of Chaos.
Monday September 26th
2:56 pm I plan on buying SIMG again ... Overall markets are very weak , I would want to be in a cash position . Gold stocks are good short candidates as the indices top here ! I will look at a few
11:01 am
Selling TASR at 7.39 Selling SIMG at 9.46
8:33 am
Gary Lammert
The Exquisite Daily Fractal Evolution since March 12, 2003.... and Recomputation of the Primary Decay Sequence. The macroeconomic world appears to operate and, operateexquisitely, according to three saturation fractal growth phases,followed by a saturation fractal decay phase. The idealized time unitsthat compose the three growth phases and decay phase, as delineated inthe main page of the Economic Fractalist are x/2.5x/2x and 1.5xrespectively. Because equity valuation fractals exactly represent the complexmoney-debt-asset system, the larger the equity index, the moreperfectly representative the index is of the underlying globalmacroeconomy. This is why the Wilshire 5000 , TMWX, which representsthe near summation US equity position is useful in fractal analysis.Even though other Euro-Asian equity markets have had betterperformance, it is the American economy represented by TMWX that hasdriven recent global economic growth. Each day new valuation information is added and the consistent fractalpatterns and overall fractal puzzle gains greater clarity.Periodically review of the entire fractal evolution provides possiblenew insights. In this context a most remarkable balanced fractalpicture has come into focus. It is a fine extension of the priorestimate of future fractal evolution rather than a departure. The echohousing bubble created by the lured debtor of last resort, theAmerican consumer, has crested. This plateauing has been confirmed bysuch proxies as IYR and HGX and the greater TMWX index. USoverconsumption, overvaluation, asset inflation,and servicing of debthave become predominant factors over ongoing new debt and moneycreation in the complex money system. Since 12 March 2003, the beginning of the current major three phasefractal growth period, the idealized fractal evolution has been simplyexquisite. In general, major growth fractal units of significantlength, e.g., weeks and months, are determined by low valuation pointsand the connecting underlying slope line which contain all intervalpoints. The below data for TMWX can be easily confirmed by using BigCharts. First growth fractal (x): 103 days (12 Mar 2003 -6 August 2003) Second growth fractal (2.5x) 258 days (6 August 2003 - 13 August2004)(note nonlinear dropon August 6, 2004 denoting the hallmark of a second fractal) (The exact idealized time frame is 103 x 2.5 = 257.5 days. Noticethat the closing low is actually lower on 12 August 2004 with anintraday lower low on 13 August for exactly 257.5 days-exactlymatching the idealized low). The idealized expected third growth phase and the idealized decaycycle would be: Third growth cycle idealized (2x) 206 daysDecay cycle idealized (1.5x) 154.5 days Notice that the sum of the first and second growth cycle equals thesum of the third growth cycle and decay cycle: 103 + 257.5 = 206 +154.5 = 359.5 (The first and last day are double counted requiring asubtraction of 1) Now look what has happened in the real fractal evolution of the thirdgrowth cycle starting 12 August or 13 August 2004. It has beencomposed of three subfractals: First subfractal: (y) 51-52 days 12/13 August - 25 October 2005 Second subfractal (2.5y) 129-130 days 25 October 2005 - 29 April 2005(note nonlinear drop on April 15,2005 denoting hallmark nonlineardevaluation of the second fractal) Third subfractal (2y) 103-104 days was ideally completed on Friday23 September 2005. Remembering that the sum of the first two growth fractals equal thethe sum of the third growth fractal and the decay fractal, the decayfractal should be equal to: Expected Decay Fractal: 51.5 +129.5 minus 103.5 (-1 for doublecounting) = 77.5 days. Notice the sum 51.5 + 129.5 + 103.5 + 77.5 (-3 days for doublecounting) = 359 days. This most remarkably agrees with the above idealized expected thirdgrowth cycle and idealized decay cycle within half a day.Macroeconomically this might be explained by continued (excess)growth capacity to be had from ongoing debt creation and credit fromexisting asset valuation. The idealized third fractal incorporatedthis excess growth et, al. and rearranged itself into a newintegrated sequence - with exactly the same number of days to the endof the idealized cycle. This total cycle equivalent day fractal rearrangement potentiallyprovides a much better solution for the final decay fractal sequence.Retrospectively, using this solution, the recent fractal valuationbehavior of the last 2-3 months becomes understandable and perfect inits evolution. The base containing the 3 August 2005 Wilshire high starts on 18 July2005 and is 16 days in length - vice 14 days. The evolution is 4/8/6days. Rather than being the actual primary decay base, it appears tobe a bridging intermediate base whose second fractal sequencecontains the actual base for the primary devolution.The expected lowof a second fractal with base of 16 days is on day 40(2.5x). Thislast Friday, September 23, was day 34 of this 40 day sequence. Usinga 16 day base, there should be 6 more days to a low. Likewise including the TMWX secondary peak(in reference to March2000), 3 August 2005, is a potential interlocking confirmatory basesequence starting on 29 July 2005. This base sequence is following theclassical x/2.5x/2x/1.5x and is 7/17/14/and 5(as of 23 September 2005)of 10-11 days. Noticed that the expected low occurs on the same 40thday(or one day earlier) of the 16/40 x/2.5x sequence as delineatedIn the preceding paragraph. The potential real first decay fractal base is contained within thesetwo above interlocking fractal patterns and appears to be 3/7/2 (as ofSeptember 23) of 7-8. The primary decay base would consist of 15-16days starting on the lower high of 12 September 2005. The idealized decay pattern would be either( for a total of 78 daysfrom the 103-104 daythird fractal third subfractal lower high): 15/37.5/37.5 x/2.5x/2.5x or16/40/32-33 y/2.5y/2y. By this fractal reckoning the first decay base low will be reached in5-6 more days and the entire three phase fractal decay cycle will bereached in 77 more trading days. Considering the enormity ofimbalances, entitlements, and outstanding debt, this devolution couldpotentially represent the 147 year nonlinear fall into the abyss. Thecollapsing financial picture will tax the American banking systemwith its inadequate fractional cash reserves in its ability to redeemdeposits of concerned savers. This is not investment advice. It is a rather specific prospectivelyidentified potential pattern that can be tested. Again as the dailyfractal valuations evolve, further prognostic refinements may beindicated. However, the odds that the preceding identified daily Wilshire'sfractals since March 2003, characterized by easily identifiablevaluation lows, are occurring by chance and randomness alone -resulting in exquisitely perfect quantum fractal patterns must, from astatistical point of view, approach zero. Based on this significantstatistical improbability, the macroecomony may very well operate viaits own predictable scientific fractal law. Time will tell.
Fractal Setup : Place a STOP at 9.25 for a Long Position ... target 15.00
vphm
btui
hom
ford
fnx
bcon
gmxr
iehc
xwg
cmi
esv
rti
pwav
arrs
asvi
|
Copyright © 2003 - 2004 All rights reserved. All content, graphics and publications on this site are protected by U.S. copyright and international treaties and may not be copied without the written express permission of Trading Amazing Elliott Wave Fractals, which reserves all rights. Re-distribution of any of TAEWF's content and graphics for any purpose is strictly prohibited. The materials from the TAEWF's site are available for informational uses only, provided the content and/or graphics are not modified in any way, all copyright and other notices on any copy are retained, and written permission is granted by TAEWF.. As financial markets are subject to many influences and fluctuate due to many factors, no guarantees are made as to the accuracy of the information presented or distributed. The operator of this site is not responsible for the manner in which the information is used by subscribers or readers. | 
[复制链接]
楼主
Saturday April 18th 2009
