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发表于 2009-3-22 17:36
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Link: Nine Last Minute Easy Steps to Lower Your Taxes
December 20th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
You have less than two-weeks to make any adjustments that would help you lessen your tax burden for 2008. USA Today reporter Rhonda Abrams suggests these nine strategies in her article “Do These Now to Reduce Your Tax Bill in April.”
These strategies are mainly geared for small businesses, but if you are an independent trader, you can perhaps employ some of these strategies for yourself.
For me, I bought a powerful new computer and large monitor that will be arriving soon and am buying other office supplies/equipment to help offset some of the profits of trading and blogging.
Abrams also suggests pre-paying bills now that you would pay in January 2009 such as conference registrations, rent/supplies, taxes, etc. You still have time to make tax-deductible charitable contributions as well - it is the holiday season after all.
She also suggests ways to defer income if 2008 was not a profitable year, as it wasn’t for so many companies. This might mean holding off on sending invoices until January.
I am not a tax specialist, and you should always contact your accountant or tax specialist before making any major changes or for legal advice, but Abrams’ article has some good tips you might want to consider while you still have time. She even recommends speaking to a professional.
Above all, she recommends, “Guard your cash and credit carefully,” and “This year, of all years, every dollar you save is important. That’s particularly true when it comes to taxes. A few steps taken now — before the year ends — can save you money when tax time rolls around.”
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A Rounded Reversal in Store for RIMM?
December 20th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Is a Rounded Reversal chart pattern in store for Research in Motion (RIMM)? The chart appears to be setting up that way - let’s see this development and take a closer look.
RIMM Daily:
It would appear from the chart that RIMM is indeed in the middle section of a possible “Rounded Reversal” or saucer-style bottom pattern, where swings are contracting and appear to be turning upwards. Notice the momentum oscillator has consistently been registering positive momentum divergences as price continued to make new lows.
This pattern will be confirmed if price were to cross above the falling 50 day EMA, and would further be confirmed by a bullish or “Golden” Cross of the 20 and 50 day EMAs. More conservative traders might want to wait for that to develop, while more aggressive traders might want to enter currently.
The pattern will be invalidated (over-ruled) by price breaking through strong support at $35.00 per share, so if you decide to trade in RIMM, placing a stop beneath $35.00 or even $32.00 or so might be a good idea.
Let’s back the picture to the weekly chart to see a possible completed Elliott Wave Count there.
RIMM Weekly:
If this is the correct interpretation, Wave 1 terminated shy of $50 in late 2007; Wave 2 formed a lengthy ‘flat’ or rectangle pattern, while Wave 3 burst on the scene forming the new price and momentum high. Wave 4 was a sharp, ABC correcting back to the rising 50 week EMA (also the while wave 5 took is into mid-2008 on new price highs that formed under a negative momentum divergence at the upper Bollinger Bands, signaling the possible peak of the completed impulse.
Corrective Wave A took us back to the rising 50 week EMA while Corrective Wave B retraced roughly 70% of Wave A. We would technically thus still be in the Corrective C Wave, though it would appear the C wave is running out of steam at the moment (notice the positive divergence transpiring into new 2008 lows).
Continue to watch this stock, and many other technology stocks that are forming similar patterns. Try not to get overly risk-seeking, as the major US Equity Market remains in a confirmed, large-scale downtrend.
Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com
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Stepping Back in Time - Elliott Wave Count of 2000 to 2003
December 19th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Stuart, a reader, asked me an excellent question that I wanted to share with you all which raises some interesting questions we may need to discuss. he noted that the proposed Elliott Wave count in 2002 was very similar to the current structure, and noted that the bottom - using Elliott Wave - could not have been predicted. Let’s take a look at what he means and then try to determine if we can apply this lesson to today’s Elliott Wave count (and add an additional viewpoint to the current “Which Wave 4″ debate that continues).
Stuart asked me to take an objective - no bias - look at the market from 2000 and stop early October 2002. I’ve tried to do that and recreate how I would have interpreted the Wave count at the exact - though clearly unknown - bottom of 2002 in the S&P 500.
SP500 Elliott Wave Count in 2002:
Click for larger image.
I suspect we could have had yet another spirited and valid “Which Elliott Wave 4 are we Currently In?” debate then just as now. I have applied my best, objective analysis, and would have stated something similar to these lines:
“We see the moving averages are in the most bearish orientation possible, and we may have just completed the final fractal wave 5 of the larger Wave 3 impulse. This means we’re likely to launch into a larger fourth wave which could take us up to 950 or perhaps 1,000 where we would meet resistance from the falling 50 period EMA and from the September 11th price lows. Also, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Wave 3 impulse lies at 980, so the 950 to 980 level would reflect confluence initial resistance. Note the development of a multi-swing positive momentum divergence, which further clues us in that the 3rd wave is complete at this time and a corrective “ABC” Fourth Wave may be emerging soon.”
After Wave 4 completes around these levels, we would have another 5-wave fractal impulse to the downside, which would roughly equivocate Wave 1, which took us from roughly 1,500 to 1,100 - a 400 point move. If Wave 4 terminates near 980 to 1,000, then the Final 5th Wave should take us down to 600 or so on the S&P (these are rough approximations of course without the finer details).”
I suspect there were even more bearish price objectives than 600 at that time - I was not applying Elliott Wave analysis at all during this time period, but rather had a more fundamental analysis view of the market sprinkled with basic chart reading (I had not fully discovered or embraced technical analysis at this point, though the 2000-2003 Bear Market forced me to seek alternate sources of investment/trading knowledge).
Stuart’s point was that - applying classic Elliott Wave counts would have most likely (if not certainly) caused the analyst to miss the bottom fully, particularly if he or she held rigidly to the most likely wave count (as I interpret it - I have not sought other sources on their wave counts at this time) that I have labeled above.
Update: Reader Andrew in the comments portion suggested that instead of ‘fishing’ for 5 Waves, we should have been looking for 3 Waves - ABC - for a larger scale Corrective Phase. That would be in keeping with the larger-scale notion that we are currently in a large-scale Expanded Flat (Where A would have 3 waves, B would have 3 waves, and C would have 5 Waves. More on this later).
Here is a possible “ABC” Three Wave Corrective Phase Count that may be more in line with proper Elliott Analysis than the 5-Wave count above:
Under this count, Wave A terminated at the September 11th 2001 price lows with Wave B swinging up into EMA resistance and then Wave C terminated at the absolute bottom in October 2002.
Now, let’s step forward one year and see how this played out. Remember, at this point - the exact 2002 bottom - we have a highly probable and internally valid Elliott Wave count that has us at the terminal point of Wave 3 down.
I’ve taken away all the fractal waves and focused on the major Waves. Keep in mind I’m now labeling waves with hindsight.
Sure enough, Wave 4 played out as expected, finding overhead resistance actually shy of my target of 980 to 1,000 (based on the 50 week EMA and 38.2% Fib retracement). One can see a small-scale “abc” pattern that terminated at the highs.
Now, one can count out a 5-wave fractal impulse down that terminates at the 5th wave lows, so technically this wave count would be correct, but would it have been realistic and expected? That’s the heart of Stuart’s question.
Objectively, I have to conclude “No.” The way I interpret Elliott Wave, I would never have anticipated or thought of the March 2003 lows as the termination point of Wave 5. I would have had terminal targets closer to 600 than 800, and I would have had a full expectation that the final 5th wave would terminate at new price lows beyond the 2002 “Wave 3″ bottom.
To make matters worse, I could see a decent argument for a Wave Count that has us at the terminus of large-scale Wave 4 right where this chart ends. Instead of the circled “4,” place an “A” there, and instead of circled “5,” place a “B” there and then place a “C” at the top of the current price swing as the chart ends. This would have had the Elliott analyst expecting a large-scale final 5th Wave just above the official confirmation point (meaning, the moving averages have crossed and price has formed a higher high and higher low) of the fresh Bull Market that launched exactly at that time.
However, this - to me - is why you do not apply Elliott Wave in isolation. Despite the bearish analysis, notice in July when the 20 and 50 week EMAs crossed “bullishly.” Just like they crossed “bearishly” in November 2000, this large scale technical signal is sort of a “Line in the Sand,” meaning when this Golden (or Death) Cross occurs on a weekly chart, it is a major technical signal and many funds take notice of such a simple yet effective structural change.
By this I mean it would have been fine to hold bearish price targets and objectives UNTIL this cross occurred. Of course, there was a multiple swing positive momentum divergence setting up as well that preceded the reversal, as well as a Triple Bottom-style bullish pattern, among many other more complex forms of technical analysis.
All that being said, what might that mean for Today’s Market?
We have realistic price projection targets that take the S&P 500 down to 600, and more aggressive targets that take it to 400. We have a spirited and valid debate about how far this corrective phase will go, but we have near universal agreement - among Elliotticians at least - that we will crack the November 750 lows and push on lower once the final large Fifth Wave completes (perhaps completing a large-scale “C” Wave in which the “A” Wave was 2000 - 2003; the “B” Wave was 2003-2007; and the “C” Wave was 2007 to present). Keep in mind that if we are in a large-scale Expanded Flat, then the “C” Wave actually has to play out in a 5-Wave terminal fashion, so we cannot expect a “Three Wave ABC” Corrective period for the current environment.
I believe we will see a Final 5th Wave. I believe we will break the November 2008 lows sometime in early 2009.
However, I do not need to let these views color (bias) my analysis such that I close off other possibilities of price action. I feel this is the most likely price course of action and it is based on a growing faith in Elliott Wave Theory, but my faith in Elliott is not absolute - my belief in price structure (and supply/demand forces) is. My belief (a la Mark Douglas) that “Anything Can Happen in the Market” is stronger than my belief that “We Have to Have a Terminal 5th Wave Which Will Crack the November 2008 Price Lows”.
In sum, apply your analysis including Elliott Wave as best you can, act on it in a risk-controlled environment/method, but do try to keep an open mind with a healthy respect that anything can happen at anytime in the market - it may be frustrating at first, but I suspect it’s a much more profitable way to trade than being caught blind when the market does something you never foresaw happening.
Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com
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Index Ascending Triangle Coming to Apex
December 19th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
There is a clear ascending triangle consolidation pattern developing on the major US Equity Indexes, and it appears we are reaching the Apex, or break-out point sooner rather than later. Let’s take a look at the S&P 500 Index and see this development.
S&P 500 60min Chart:
The S&P 500 is showing significant resistance about the 920 level which has been confirmed three times, and is showing resilient support via the rising trendline from November 24th to present, which has been confirmed four times (though the early December decline did not fall all the way to the trendline).
What this tells us is that a break in either direction - above 920 or below 880 - could lead to a significant ‘trend’ (continued) expansion move. Remember the basic price principle: “Price alternates between range expansion and contraction.” Using this principle, we can observe the current consolidation - in the form of an ascending triangle - and then expect some sort of expansion move once the market moves out of this consolidation - or balance - area.
The momentum oscillator is also reflecting market consolidation, as it is recording contraction in price swings which is coming to a point about the +10 and -10 indicator levels.
Let’s actually take a closer look at the 30-minute chart for a ‘zoom-in’ on the recent consolidation area.
S&P 500 30min Chart
Notice how the 200 period SMA has contained price on each subsequent test. The other moving averages, however, have not been as helpful in terms of setting up trades or position management.
From this view, it would seem like there could be a bit more time for price to spend in this range, but not much. Generally, we would expect price to break-out of the trendlines somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 of the way to the apex, or the exact price at which the lower rising trendline would intersect the flat, upper trendline. We’re likely just about there by this measure.
A quick note - traditionally, ascending triangles have bullish expectations and that could indeed be the case here. I do not ascribe bullishness or bearishness to triangles, but rather note them as consolidation patterns with the expectation that price will likely burst with an impulse move in one direction or the other, and I often advocate avoiding trying to predict in which direction price will break.
Case in point, not long ago, we had a bearish descending triangle in the indexes… which broke sharply to the upside (throughout October before eventually falling to new lows).
Stay on top of this development and try not to be caught off guard by a sudden price expansion move that could happen soon.
Take advantage of the 2-month special trial offer to Market Club which is still available. Through Market Club, you’ll join a network of traders who share insights, and will benefit from the analysis the staff puts together as well as their continued focused efforts on trader education.
Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com
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